Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Chinese

Civilian Aircraft Lands on Fiery
Cross Reef
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 4, 2016
[client name deleted]
We seek your assessment about media reports that China landed a plane on an
airstrip built on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly archipelago on January 2, 2016.
Our questions are:
Q1. What is your assessment about China's latest move?
ANSWER: Chinas test landing of a civil aviation plane on the runway at Fiery Cross
Reef was to be expected after China basically completed constructing the runway
and basic support facilities. China will step up civilian air activity gradually in step
with improvements of the infrastructure, including fuel storage and maintenance
and repair facilities. We can expect the same to occur at Subi and Mischief Reefs.
Q2. Many security experts say the airfield can accommodate most Chinese military
aircraft. Does this mean that Beijing will militarize its artificial islands?
ANSWER: An airfield that is 3,000 metres long can accommodate all military aircraft
in Chinas current inventory. But to accommodate a permanent presence China will
need to build hangars, fuel storage, and maintenance and repair facilities. China is
likely to station civilian maritime law enforcement aircraft on its artificial islands
initially. Military aircraft will follow when China judges the time is ripe but these are
likely to be basic maritime patrol airplanes. China has not yet created an air force
base that would signal the conversion of the artificial islands to military use. The
deployment of advanced J-11BH/BHS fighters to Woody Island in October last year is
a harbinger of what might occur in the Spratly islands.
Q3. What if China sends a bigger plane, like an Airbus, to the runway on Fiery Cross
Reef? How should Vietnam respond?
ANSWER: China has over two hundred A320 Airbusses. At the present China is
unlikely to base permanently an Airbus on one of its artificial islands because of the
relatively poor infrastructure there. China could land and take off from the artificial
islands and carry between 140 to 160 passengers on each trip. China could replace
whole crews on Coast Guard ships or bring in families to meet with fishermen,
scientists and/or other personnel. If China did use the Airbus it would do so to
convince the world that its construction of artificial islands was civilian in nature. All
Vietnam can do is protest. It is clear that neither ASEAN nor the United States will

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confront China directly and China will take advantage of this to advance its
operational control.
Q4. The United States deployed warships and maritime aircraft to patrol in the South
China Sea to challenge Beijings territorial claims in the contested waters in 2015.
What do you think will be Washingtons response if China takes more assertive
actions in the South China Sea, for example, sending bigger planes to the airstrips on
its artificial islands?
ANSWER: The United States conducted only two limited freedom of navigation
operational patrols (FONOP) in 2015. There was much confusion about what the
FONOP were intended to achieve. One Pentagon spokesperson said they conducted
innocent passage. If this is the case the US achieved the opposite of what it
intended. Instead of challenging Chinas illegal claim, the US was according the
artificial islands the status of naturally formed islands under international law. If the
FONOP sailed near to but did not cross the 12 nautical mile limit, once again the US
was according a maritime zone to an artificial island to which it is not entitled. The
U.S. has said it will continue to conduct FONOP every quarter starting in January. To
be effective the United States needs to sail closer to the artificial islands than 12
nautical miles. Chinas artificial islands cannot claim a 12 nautical mile territorial sea
or any airspace under international law. They are entitled to a 500 metre safety zone
only. The United States is unlikely to challenge the operations of civil aircraft landing
and taking off on Chinas artificial islands as this is a separate issue from illegal
maritime zones.
Q5.In your opinion, given Chins ambtins, what is going to happen next in the South
China Sea?
ANSWER: China will calibrate its actions and gradually take over the South China Sea
by operating forward bases on its artificial islands. In 2016 China has to prepare a
response to any adverse decision by the Arbitral Tribunal hearing the claims bought
by the Philippines. China will ignore any decision that goes against its interests and
will step up operations until they are considered routine and normal by regional
states. China also hopes that either the Philippines Supreme Court will rule the
Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement with the United States unconstitutional
and/or that the next Philippine president will be more accommodating to China. We
can expect to see a permanent presence of Chinese fishing boats, oil exploration
crews and Coast Guard in the Spratlys. The Chinese military is already present
providing technical support in the form of communications, long-range radar and
electronic warfare equipment. Eventually we will see Chinese Navy frigates on
permanent station and eventually military aircraft.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinese

Civilian Aircraft Lands on Fiery Cross Reef, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
January 4, 2016. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer).
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.