The Atlantic

Is the Economy Overdue for a Recession?

Expansions don’t die of old age, economists say. But President Trump still seems likely to face a contraction.
Source: Yuri Gripas / Reuters

The unemployment rate at 4.7 percent. Employers adding 235,000 workers a month. Consumer confidence at its highest level since 2001. The stock market rallying to new territory. Jobless claims flirting with a 44-year low. Wages finally rising, including for low-income workers. The expansion nearing its 100th month. Things are bound to fall apart soon.

This sentiment has become surprisingly common as the expansion has kept chugging along: President Trump has to face a recession in his first term, right? These things don’t last forever, right? “Trump’s turn,” . “Talk about a poisoned chalice,” Bloomberg. “History shows there’s a 100 percent chance of a recession for.

You’re reading a preview, subscribe to read more.

More from The Atlantic

The Atlantic4 min read
Private Equity Has Its Eyes on the Child-Care Industry
Updated at 1:30 p.m. ET on February 22, 2024. Last June, years of organizing in Vermont paid off when the state’s House and Senate passed landmark legislation—overriding a governor’s earlier veto—that invests $125 million a year into its child-care s
The Atlantic5 min readSocial History
The Pro-life Movement’s Not-So-Secret Plan for Trump
Sign up for The Decision, a newsletter featuring our 2024 election coverage. Donald Trump has made no secret of the fact that he regards his party’s position on reproductive rights as a political liability. He blamed the “abortion issue” for his part
The Atlantic4 min readAmerican Government
How Democrats Could Disqualify Trump If the Supreme Court Doesn’t
Near the end of the Supreme Court’s oral arguments about whether Colorado could exclude former President Donald Trump from its ballot as an insurrectionist, the attorney representing voters from the state offered a warning to the justices—one evoking

Related Books & Audiobooks