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    Foxy Futurists and how to become one
    Foxy Futurists and how to become one
    Foxy Futurists and how to become one
    Ebook216 pages1 hour

    Foxy Futurists and how to become one

    By Clem Sunter

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    About this ebook

    What do you call people who are vaguely right about the future, but seldom precisely wrong? Foxy futurists. In the latest addition to this top-selling series of books, Clem Sunter explores the methodology of foxy futurists as well as their propensity to turn their thoughts into action. This book is a collection of his most recent columns, covering topics of general interest, updated and annotated with new insights by this master strategist. It includes possible paths the global economy and South Africa might follow in the years ahead. Packed full of wit and wisdom, Foxy Futurists is a guide to survival and success in these volatile and uncertain times.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherTafelberg
    Release dateOct 4, 2010
    ISBN9781920323806
    Foxy Futurists and how to become one
    Author

    Clem Sunter

    Clem Sunter was born in England and read politics, philosophy and economics at Oxford before moving to Zambia in 1971 to work for Anglo American Central Africa. In 1973 he came to Anglo headquarters in South Africa, where he spent most of his career in the gold and uranium division, serving as its chairman and CEO from 1990 to 1996. In the early 1980s, Sunter established a scenario planning function at Anglo with teams in London and Johannesburg. He is probably best known for his ‘High Road/Low Road’ scenarios for South Africa in the 1980s. His 2001 book, "The Mind of a Fox", co-authored with Chantell Ilbury, anticipated a major terrorist attack on a western city before the 9/11 tragedy in New York. The book sold more than 50 000 copies. Since 1987, Clem has authored or co-authored 18 books, many of them bestsellers. He has given scenario presentations worldwide, including lectures at the Harvard Business School in Boston and at the Central Party School in Beijing. Sunter married Margaret Rowland in 1969 and they have one daughter and two sons. His hobbies include walking and rock music although he hung up his guitar professionally in 1964 shortly after his band played at the same gig as the Rolling Stones.

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      Book preview

      Foxy Futurists and how to become one - Clem Sunter

      Foxy futurists & how to become one

      Clem Sunter

      Human & Rousseau

      To Steve Biko

      A genius ahead of his time

      "The great powers of the world may

      have done wonders in giving the world

      an industrial and military look, but the great

      gift still has to come from Africa – giving

      the world a more human face."

      Steve Biko at the Ecumenical Lay Training Centre,

      Edendale, Natal, in 1971

      Introduction

      This book primarily consists of articles I have written each week between May 2009 and September 2010 for the News24 website. The internet is a wonderful medium through which to express your views, because you get instant feedback in the comments made by readers of your article. They are raw, uncensored, positive and negative. The internet democratises the word as well as spreading it.

      Although some of my columns are written as an impulsive reaction to an event that has occurred in the world or South Africa, I have a subconscious theme running through all of them. I want people to become foxy futurists, where – like the fox – they are constantly scanning the environment around them to identify opportunities and threats that arise from the changes taking place. But – more than that – I want them to respond with action, an adaptation of behaviour, strategy or tactics to suit the new circumstances. It is the speed of response that ensures the survival of the fox and makes it one of the most successful of species. Likewise with human beings and companies.

      I would like to thank Cathryn Rees, who originally invited me to become a columnist for News24, and Aneeqah Emeran, who has assisted me with the production of the articles on a weekly basis. Reading the articles of my fellow columnists on the website, I am very proud to be part of the team. We try to serve up a quality product that educates and entertains the readership. Sometimes we strike a chord, sometimes we fail, but the intent is always there. The great thing about an internet news site is that you rapidly know where you stand by the number of hits you achieve. We even have a hit parade! Each article is like a CD single, immediately measured and ranked.

      I would also like to express my gratitude to Erika Oosthuysen and her colleagues at Human & Rousseau for converting my articles and commentary into a literary format that is logical to follow and entertaining to read.

      I have dedicated the book to the late Steve Biko, who linked self-development to self-esteem, a concept that is only now gaining general currency. In modern terminology, the only way of overcoming the hideous inequalities in South African society is to create a culture of entrepreneurship whereby people feel sufficiently empowered and confident to do things for themselves and ask what they can do for others.

      I hope you get as much pleasure out of dipping into these articles as I got out of writing them. Because I liken this book to a CD album, here is the message for the cover. Wherever you are, whatever you do, may the fox be with you when you look at the future. Every track is composed with this wish in mind. Press ‘play’.

      Foxy futurists

      When an economist says on the one hand and on the other hand, you know exactly what the audience is thinking: give me a one-armed economist. The problem with providing different scenarios of the future, but no further information, is that people conclude that you are just covering your backside – exactly as the Delphic Oracle did in ancient times.

      So one of the most important points that Chantell Ilbury and I made in our third book Socrates & the Fox is that you have to go further in exploring the future than merely producing a range of scenarios. You have to provide the flags that would indicate that you are moving from one scenario to another and, based on the disposition of the flags, attach subjective probabilities to the scenarios.

      What do we mean by subjective probabilities? The answer is that the future is only played once, so you cannot – as in a laboratory – repeat an experiment many times and, from the pattern of outcomes, derive a scientific range of probabilities. It is more a matter of intuition and hunch after studying the flags. The closest we can come to an analogy is to picture scenarios as racehorses and, as the race proceeds, we note the changing position of the horses and amend the odds accordingly.

      In other words, before the future unfolds, you have a favourite scenario, a possible scenario and a long shot. As you proceed into the future, the flags either go up or stay down, which gives you an indication of the positioning of each scenario: which one is moving to the front and which one is lagging behind. Thus, a favourite may become an outside chance at the back of the field, and an outsider may burst into the lead. Depending on how far the race has progressed, you begin to get a feel for the result. Except that there is no finishing line, because the future goes on forever. Hence you are constantly revising the odds, coming up with new scenarios and revising the flags. Let me give some examples. In 1986, we said the flag to indicate a more positive future for South Africa was negotiation between the National Party and the ANC. It was a precondition for our High Road scenario. At the time, the flag was firmly down, so the odds were slim and most people thought we were heading for the Low Road.

      Then things began to change and a series of mini-flags started popping up, culminating in the release of Nelson Mandela, which was a gigantic flag. The High Road scenario moved from a remote possibility to odds-on favourite.

      Then again, in mid-2001, Chantell and I said in The Mind of the Fox that the flag for a major terrorist strike on a Western city was firmly fluttering in the breeze, as terrorist organisations now had access to information about assembling weapons of mass destruction. The event occurred three months after we published the book, but not in the way we envisaged.

      More recently, we identified the flag for a possible global recession to be declining asset values in America, since American consumers were only spending more by borrowing more because they were worth more. In January 2007, the flag went up for the first time when the price of property in the US started to decline. After six months of continuing decline, we were giving a 50% probability to a Hard Times scenario.When Wall Street turned later in the year, we upped the figure to 80%. In 2008 and 2009, the scenario became a 100% reality.

      Now the flag is around nations defaulting on their sovereign debt. If they do so, we are in for a Perfect Storm. On the other hand, should the flag stay down, we may be at the start of a global recovery.

      One final point: The connection between the flags and the subjective probabilities for the scenarios can never be precise. We say 10% is a wild card, between 10 and 20% a slight possibility, 20–40% a definite possibility, 40–50% a strong possibility, 50–70% a probability, 70–90% a strong probability and above 90% a near certainty. That way the odds we are giving are realistically approximate.

      The trick is to identify the right flags and to monitor them on a daily basis for any change in their disposition. That is what makes a foxy futurist, but there is one other essential characteristic, which I shall talk about next week.

      Lessons from Munich

      At a strategic workshop that I facilitated for a property development company several years ago, I emphasised that you cannot just play scenarios on future possibilities. You have to consider your options in light of the scenarios and then decide what you are going to do about the situation.

      The CEO, who was Jewish, nodded his head and related the following story: "My grandfather was a profitable tailor in Munich in the 1930s. He attended a speech by Adolf Hitler in the Munich square in 1934. He came away with a distinct

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