Global Warming Navigation: Through the Fog Toward Our Safe Harbor
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This essay weighs in on these and other questions with the fresh eyes of a seasoned Mechanical Engineer, Ed Prell, who reminds us that we are powerfully addicted to the “modern miracles” we access via the outlets and thermostats on our walls and the pump hoses at our gas stations. Behind our walls and those gas hoses is a gargantuan supply line which will need to be fundamentally transformed in a few short decades if we are to survive. That entails not only phasing out the greenhouse gas emitters, but ramping up our new zero-emission sources to elbow their way onto a smartly evolving power grid. Will the fossil energy industry, history’s largest and most profitable business, obligingly step aside, or does it have an ace up its sleeve? What about their investors and employees? Can the world’s economic system and social fabric sustain the seismic shocks of such a reshuffling?
Snappy answers will not be found in this essay. Like a splash of cold water, it shocks us into awareness of the unprecedented feats we humans must perform if we are to survive. Backed up with over 160 source references, it alerts us to overlooked hazards and opportunities. It inspires old climate warriors to persist, and new volunteers to step forward. It leaves us with the confidence that our daunting mission will succeed. Why? Because there is no other option.
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Global Warming Navigation - Edward T. Prell
AUTHOR
PREFACE
I wrote this essay because I believe you share with me the conviction that Global Warming is a do-or-die issue for the continuation of our civilization, and perhaps our species. No underlining, no highlighting, no CAPS LOCK, can adequately convey just how crucial a situation humanity is facing.
The power tools, electronic hardware, and household appliances I have designed as a career Mechanical Engineer are relatively simple. They are conceived, designed, tested, tooled up and manufactured by a team of professionals. The surprises we encounter are ordinarily resolved once we understand what it was we overlooked. Not so with our universe, our Earth and its lifeforms, which constantly fill me with awe. These systems
are not of our making. We humans are merely one of the components. So, when we undertake activities that threaten our one and only habitat, planet Earth, I am angered and saddened. We are woefully unqualified to undo the damages we have inflicted.
I have been concerned about Global Warming and its offspring, Climate Change, since its revelation in the 1980s. Until recently, I had thought that expert voices, reports of record-setting weather disasters, and personal experience of weather trends would surely move the public and our institutions to rein in the causes of this disruption. I was wrong. Big oil and gas companies kept producing ads claiming their commitment for the environment and their interest in clean energy, but the CO2 level in the atmosphere kept climbing. Many politicians expressed doubt that Global Warming, much less Manmade Global Warming, exists – going as far as calling it a hoax. Many of my friends and associates displayed ignorance or indifference about the issue. Last summer I set out to understand why there is such an alarming disconnect between the problem and its solution.
Now, nearly one year later, I still don’t understand why well-educated, intelligent adults can fail to grasp and act on the gravity of the climate disaster and its implications for their children and the following generations. I’m referring to many of those who hold positions of influence in the energy sector, government, and the media. But I know their track record, and cannot assume that they will have a change of heart any time soon.
The picture I found was not a pretty one. The public as a whole is not well equipped to evaluate the climate issue, due to its low level of science literacy in the face of well-presented disinformation. More immediate economic, political and social issues are forcing environmental concerns to the back burner. The fossil energy businesses are operating as if Global Warming were nonexistent. Furthermore, a turnaround and intensification of public pressure would be no guarantee of a policy correction. We only need to reflect on the 2003 Iraq invasion and the failure to enact gun controls.
Out of this quest, I developed the conviction that a redirection of emphasis is needed. We need to admit that in our head-on confrontations we are beating our heads against a wall; that there are some overlooked opportunities crying for attention; and that overlooked hazards need to be acknowledged and prepared for.
I remain optimistic, despite today’s condition on the ground, that greenhouse gas emissions can be throttled down to a trickle, zero-emission energy can rise to meet our needs, and that relative stability within and among societies can be maintained. The outlook was quite bleak in 1776, 1860, and 1941. Times of crisis breed emergent figures to set things right. They will emerge this time, and they will need as much help as they can get. For over 30 years, many, many people have given of their time and talents to numerous environmental organizations. Whether you are already engaged or not, you are needed now, more than ever. You have a role to play. Your participation will be warmly welcomed.
Nobody can predict just how events will unfold, and certainly not their timing. However, it is clear that there is no time to spare. Our climate will continue to grow more violent and unpredictable until greenhouse gas emission is reduced drastically. I will identify, as I see it, the major strategic terrain, probable future developments,