Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises: How to Predict Discontinuous Decisions
By Ionut Purica
()
About this ebook
When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good.
- Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations
- Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity
- Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events
Ionut Purica
Prof.Ionut Purica is a corresponding member of the Academy of Romanian Scientists (AOSR), and a senior researcher in econophysics. He had worked in the World Bank, ENEA Rome and ICTP Trieste, Italy and RENEL Romania developing nonlinear models for energy systems development and economic decisions. He holds two PhDs: one in energy systems and the other in economics.
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Book preview
Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises - Ionut Purica
book.
Chapter 1
Introduction
Keywords
Limits; crises; complex behavior
This chapter reviews some ideas on limits, crises, complex behavior, and local versus global perception that serve to create the necessary state of mind (memes in Dawkins terminology) to make the reader curious about the rest of the book.
In November 1997 the financial crisis of that time had already started in Mexico and the Asian Tigers were having problems. Moreover, Russia was entering the crisis situation too. The bifurcation related to the change from one state to the other—in the case of stock exchange, from sell
to buy
is an indication of a change in the traders’ collective behavior that is triggered by small changes of perceived parameters’ evolution. The euphoria of a seemingly endless exponential growth of some financial instruments is replaced suddenly by the sorrow of a saturation followed by abandoning the allocation of money to some instruments and the shift toward others.
There is an important message here that is the fact that people have in their minds some given states and external information is almost unconsciously interpreted as either going toward one or the other, without anything in between. This behavior is produced by some entities of the mind having similar properties with genes whose conceptualization had been done by Dawkins who also coined the name meme
for