Islamic State: Can it be Defeated?

ISLAMIC STATE: CAN IT BE DEFEATED?

Published by Bhaskar Sarkar, at Smashwords

Cover art: Sarita Sharma

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Copyright Author Bhaskar Sarkar 2015

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DEDICATION

The book is dedicated to the hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, mostly women and children

who have been killed, brutalized or traumatized by the Islamic State and other Salafi Jihadists,

and those innocents civilians, who have been killed, brutalized or traumatized

by the anti Islamic State forces in the name of collateral damage while fighting it.

PREFACE

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took the world by surprise when it captured Mosul in northern Iraq and most of Sunni dominated provinces of Iraq in June 2014. On 29 June 2014, the group proclaimed itself to be an Islamic State (IS); a worldwide caliphate with Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi as its Caliph. (A Caliph is the successor of Prophet Muhammad as the political and temporal head of an Islamic empire ruled under Sharia laws). In June 2014, Islamic State published a document in which it claimed to have traced the lineage of its leader al-Baghdadi back to Muhammad. As caliphate, it claims religious, political and military authority over all Muslims worldwide. It questions the legality of all Muslim emirates, groups, states, and organizations and claims the caliphate's authority over their areas. It rejects the political divisions in the Middle East that were established by Western powers after collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I based on the Sykes-Picot Agreement. By June 2014, IS had gained control over territory occupied by 8 to 10 million people in Iraq and Syria. Its affiliates control some territories in Libya, Sinai and Nigeria. The group also has affiliated Jihadi militant groups in other parts of the world including Europe, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The group is also known as DAESH which is the Arabic equivalent of ISIL.

IS is a ruthless, barbaric group of Islamic fundamentalists which has no respect for human rights. It has carried out ethnic cleansing on a historic scale. The group has been designated as a terrorist organization by the UN, the EU, the UK, the US, India, Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Syria, Egypt, and Russia. Over 60 countries are directly or indirectly waging war against IS.

IS is well funded and known for its well managed web and social media propaganda. The propaganda material includes internet videos of execution and beheading of soldiers, civilians, journalists and aid workers, as well as the deliberate destruction of cultural heritage sites. The group gained prominence after it drove the Iraqi government forces out of key cities like Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit in Iraq. In Syria, it conducted attacks against both government forces and moderate US or Saudi Arabia backed rebel factions in the Syrian Civil War. IS’s territorial gains in Iraq almost caused a collapse of the Iraqi government and prompted renewal of US military action in Iraq.

IS is a serious threat to Shia and other non Sunni branches of Islam, moderate Muslim States, Christians and followers of other religions and entire human values of modern day world. Sadly, it is still treated as a minor threat to world peace by the US, Europe, Sunni Arab countries and rest of the world except perhaps Russia.

Author

colbhaskarsarkar@yahoo.co.uk

Contents

Preface

Chapter 1: Birth and Rise of IS

Chapter 2: Understanding IS

Chapter 3: Battle Lines as in July 2015

Chapter 4: Reasons for Lack of Success

Chapter 5: Options before US Led Coalition

Chapter 6: Future Gazing

Prologue

Bibliography

Chapter 1: Birth and Rise Of IS

Birth of IS

IS originated as a group of fundamentalist Sunni militants in Iraq by the name of Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999. The main aim of the group was to kill Shias and other non Sunni Muslims. Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party was then in power in Iraq. From 1999 to 2003, it mainly targeted Shia institutions and pilgrims visiting the various Shia Shrines in Iraq with suicide bombings.

The US and its allies invaded Iraq in March 2003 and overthrew the Saddam Regime. The group participated in the Iraqi Insurgency which followed. It carried out many suicide attacks on Shia mosques, Shia civilians, Iraqi government institutions and soldiers who were a part of the US led multinational force. The group officially pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda network in Iraq in October 2004. It carried out attacks on Iraqi Government institutions and security forces, foreign diplomats and soldiers even after withdrawal of US forces in 2011.

Multi party elections were held in Iraq for the first time in 2005. Sunnis boycotted the elections. Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, became the prime minister in 2006 and remained so till 2014. He purged Sunni and Kurdish officers from the new Iraqi Army. The Maliki government enacted policies favouring Shias and alienated the country's Sunni minority. This led to worsening sectarian tensions.

In January 2006, the group joined hands with several smaller Iraqi insurgent groups under an umbrella organization called the Muslim Mujahideen Shura Council. On 12 October 2006, the Council united with three smaller groups and six Sunni Islamic tribes to form the Mutayibeen Coalition. It swore by Allah to rid Sunnis from the oppression of the Shias. It also promised to risk their lives to restore rights of Sunni Muslims. It vowed to make Allah's word supreme in the world and to restore the glory of Islam. A day later, Mutayibeen Coalition declared the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). ISI comprised Iraq's six mostly Sunni Arab provinces with Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its Emir. A ten member cabinet was formed to conduct the war and other operations.

The US troop surge of 2007 provided the US military with additional manpower for operations against Iraqi insurgents. US operations in Anbar Province resulted in killing or capture of many senior ISI members. Between July and October 2007, al-Qaeda in Iraq lost its secure military bases in Anbar Province and Baghdad. During 2008, a series of US and Iraqi offensives managed to drive out ISI militant from their safe havens in the Diyalia and Anbar provinces. This led to a temporary decline of the group. In a press conference in June 2010, commander of US forces in Iraq claimed that 80 per cent of the ISI's top 42 leaders had been killed or captured. The claim cannot be authenticated. But it could have led to complacency amongst US and Iraqi leaders.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the head of ISI, was killed in 2010. Abu Bakar al-Bagdadi was chosen the new leader of ISI. Al-Baghdadi strengthened the group's leadership by appointing former Ba'athist military officers who had served during Saddam Hussein's rule as military commanders. Most of them had been imprisoned by the U.S. military. They played a major part in the growth of ISI.

Arab Spring protests in Syria against the government of President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011. The Assad Government cracked down on the protestors. Violence between demonstrators and security forces led to a gradual militarization of the conflict. US and some European countries supported the rebels in the hope of getting rid of Assad who was a Russian and Iranian ally. They recognized a government in exile. Turkey opened its gates to Syrian refugees and provided sanctuary to the Syrian rebels. It also acted as a conduit for financial and military aid to the rebels. Saudi Arabia and Qatar began to provide financial and military aid to the rebels in the hope of getting rid of a Shia regime and establishing Sunni rule in Syria.

In August 2011, al-Baghdadi saw his opportunity and sent ISI fighters to Syria. Their task was to establish an ISI organization inside the country. This group began to recruit fighters and establish cells throughout Syria. On January 2012, the group announced its association with other Islamic rebels to form the al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front grew rapidly into a capable fighting force. ISI thus established a large presence in Sunni majority areas of Syria, in the districts of Ar-Raqqah, Idlib, Dier ez-Zor and Alleppo.

Tension between Free Syrian Army (FSA) and ISI surfaced in September 2013 when ISI captured two border towns from FSA forces. In January 2014, the FSA and the Islamic Front launched an offensive against ISI in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. They even managed to take Ar-Raqqah but could not hold it against ISI counter attack. By February 2014, the Al-Nusra Front joined the battle in support of FSA and other Islamic Front rebel forces against ISI. Together they expelled ISI from the Deir ez-Zor and Idlib Provinces. By March, the ISI forces had retreated from the Idlib Province and even evacuated some towns they had captured from FSA. They choose to concentrate around Ar-Raqqah to defend it. Al-Qaeda cut all ties with ISI on 3 February 2014. ISI established its headquarters at Ar-Raqqah and soon annexed territories from FSA and the Islamic Front. It came to control large tracts of Syrian territory up to Syria-Iraq border.

Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) is Formed

The last US troops withdrew from Iraq in 2011. Al-Maliki now intensified his anti Sunni policies. He excluded Sunnis from government jobs. Next he turned against Sunni politicians, first his vice president Tareq al-Hashem and then Finance minister Rafei al-Issawi. This led to peaceful Sunni protests in many towns. Al-Maliki adopted a tough posture. There was firing on demonstrators at Hawija killing about 50 Sunni demonstrators. The alienation of Sunnis was now complete. Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) seemed to be the only hope for honourable life for Sunnis. Having gained ground in and established itself in Syria, ISI became more active in Iraq.

In July 2012, al-Baghdadi declared the start of a new offensive in Iraq