You are on page 1of 11

Phn tch chnh sch trn m hnh IS LM BP

Cu 1 : M hnh IS LM BP : cch dng ? ngha? I. M hnh BP


1. Khi nim

ng BP l tp hp ca cc t hp khc nhau gia li sut v sn lng m m bo s cn bng ca cn cn thanh ton.


2. Cch dng -

Cn cn thanh ton cn bng khi tng ca ti khon vng lai, ti khon vn v hng mc cn i bng khng. Gi nh: Khng c sai s thng k. Trong TK vng lai ch c xut khu rng, b qua chuyn nhng rng v thu nhp rng t nc ngoi.

Nh vy, cn cn thanh ton cn bng khi: TK vng lai + TK vn = 0 (X M) + Ka = 0 Ka +X = M (Trong X > 0, M > 0 nn Ka +X > 0 th phng trnh cn bng ca cn cn thanh ton tho mn) Nu cn cn thanh ton cn bng th Ka + X: lng ngoi t i vo v M: lng ngoi t i ra s bng nhau.

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 1

Ta c: hm Ka + X = f(r) ; hm M = f(Y)

3. Phng trnh ng BP c xy dng t s tc ng ca li sut i vi sn lng thng qua phng trnh cn bng cn cn thanh ton. Ka +X = M (*) Trong : Ka = Ka0 + Kam.r (1) X = X0 (2) M = M0 + Mm. Y(3) Thay (1), (2) v (3) vo (*), ta c phng trnh: Y =
4. dc -

Ka0 + X 0 M 0 Kam + r Mm Mm

BP dc ln (c h s gc > 0), c ngha l khi r tng mun BP = 0 th Y phi tng. dc BP cao hay thp ph thuc nhy cm ca lng vn i vi r (mc di chuyn ca vn vo i vi r) Mc di chuyn ca vn cng cao th BP cng nm ngang.

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 2

Vn khng di chuyn th BP thng ng.


5. S dch chuyn

BP dch chuyn nu c cc yu t lm lng ngoi t i vo (Ka + X) dch chuyn (tc l thay i vn vo) th lng ngoi t i ra M s dch chuyn (thay i vn ra). Nu (Ka + X) hoc M th BP dch chuyn sang phi => BOP > 0. V ngc li, nu (Ka + X) hoc lm M th BP dch chuyn sang tri => BOP < 0. 6. ngha ng BP phn nh cc t hp khc nhau gia li sut v sn lng m m bo s cn bng ca cn cn thanh ton. Hay chng ta c th hiu rng, mi im nm trn ng BP u tho mn phng trnh: Ka + X = M - Cc im nm pha trn ng BP (im E) th cn cn thanh ton thng d. - Cc im nm pha di ng BP (im F) th cn cn thanh ton thm ht.

II. M hnh IS-LM-BP

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 3

Cn bng trong: IS = LM Cn bng bn ngoi: Y, r nm trn BP Cn bng ton b: IS = LM = BP Cn bng ca th trng hng ha v tin t trong nc, khi nn kinh t ng: IS -LM.

Cn bng ca th trng hng ha v tin t trong nc khi nn kinh t m: Nn kinh t cn bng ng thi ba th trng hng ho, ni t v ngoi t th phi thoi mn iu kin cn bng 3 phng trnh IS LM v BP, hay c 3 th trng phi c cng chung mt thu nhp Y v li sut r. Ti im giao nhau ca 3 ng IS LM BP th l sut trong nc s bng li sut th gii (r0)

Cu 2: Phn tch chnh sch ti kha, chnh sch tin t trong c ch t gi c nh, vn c nh. I) C ch t gi c nh, vn c nh C ch t gi c nh l c ch t gi hi oi m NHTW cam kt s duy tr t gi bng cch dng d tr ngoi t v cc chnh sch kinh t khc can thip vo th trng ngoi hi khi cung cu ngoi t thay i. Vn c nh K = const ng BP thng ng song song vi trc tung.

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 4

BP

II) Nn kinh t trong tinh trang suy thoai Gia nh: P = const, nn kinh m Gi thit: E0(r0, Y0); Y0< Yp BOP = 0 e = const K = const Chinh phu va Ngn hang nha nc se ap dung Chinh sach tai khoa m rng va Chinh sach tin t m rng. Gia s ban u nn kinh t ang cn bng bn trong va bn ngoai tai E0 (Y0, r0), san lng cn bng thp hn san lng tim nng (Y0 < YP) a) Tac ng cua Chinh sach tai khoa. Chinh phu thc hin Chinh sach tai khoa m rng bng cach tng G hoc giam T , se lam tng cu tng, san lng tng. ng IS dich chuyn sang phai (IS0 IS1), ct LM tai tai E0 (Y0, r0). Tai E0 (Y0, r0) nn kinh t chi at trang thai cn bng bn trong, con can cn thanh toan co s thm hut nn ty gia hi oai tng. gi ty gia hi oai khng thay i, Ngn hang nha nc phai ban ngoai t nn cung tin giam va ng LM dich chuyn ln trn (LM0 LM1). Vi lai sut tng, u t giam va mc giam cua u t bng mc tng G, nn thu nhp khng thay i. Kt qua chi co lai sut tng, san lng khng thay i => Chinh sach tai khoa m rng trong trng hp vn c inh, ti gia c inh hoan toan v hiu. G hay T AD Y => IS sang phi (IS0 IS1) => IS1 ct LM0 ti E0 ( r0; Y0) Ti E0 (r0, Y0), BOP < 0 e e = const <=> bn ngoi t => SM => r => I => AD => Y LM0 sang tri (LM0 LM1) ct IS1 ti E1(r1, Y0) Khi r => I = G , nn Y mi l mc sn lng Y0

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 5

* Kt qu: r , Y khng i => Chnh sch khng hiu qu b) Tac ng cua Chinh sach tin t. Ngn hang nha nc thc hin chinh sach tin t m rng bng cach tng lng cung tin, ng LM dich chuyn xung di (LM0 LM1), ct ng IS0 tai E1 (Y1, r1). Tai im E1, nn kinh t chi at trang thai cn bng bn trong, con can cn thanh toan co s thm hut nn ty gia hi oai tng. gi ty gia hi oai khng thay i, Ngn hang nha nc phai ban ngoai t nn cung tin giam va ng LM dich chuyn ln trn (LM1 LM0) va nn kinh t tr lai vi tri cn bng cu, im E0. Kt qua: lai sut khng i, san lng khng i trong trng hp vn c inh, ti gia c inh thi chinh sach tin t cung v hiu. M S => r => I => AD => Y => LM sang phi (LM LM ) => 0 1 LM1 ct IS0 ti E1(r1,Y1) Ti E , BOP < 0 ( ng ni t gim gi ) => e 1

e = const, CB bn ngoi t => SM => r => LM1 sang tri (LM1 LM0) tr v E0 (r0, Y0).

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 6

Kt qu: r khng i, Y khng i. CSTT m rng khng hiu qu III) Nn kinh t co lam phat cao Gia nh: P = const, nn kinh m Gi thit: E0(r0, Y0); Y0 > YP BOP = 0 e = const K=const Chinh phu va Ngn hang nha nc se ap dung chinh sach tai khoa thu hp va chinh sach tin t thu hp. Gia s nn kinh t ang cn bng bn trong va bn ngoai tai E0 (Y0, r0) & Y0 < YP a) Tac ng cua Chinh sach tai khoa. Chinh phu thc hin Chinh sach tai khoa thu hep bng cach giam G hoc tng T , => AD => Y . ng IS dich chuyn sang trai (IS0 IS1), ct LM tai E0 (Y0, r0). Tai E0 (Y0, r0) nn kinh t chi at trang thai cn bng bn trong, BOP > 0 e . e = const, Ngn hang nha nc phai mua ngoai t nn SM va ng LM dich chuyn xung di (LM0 LM1). Vi r => I va I = G, nn thu nhp khng thay i. Kt qua chi co r , Y khng thay i. Chinh sach tai khoa thu hep trong trng hp vn c inh, ti gia c inh hoan toan v hiu. G hay T => AD => Y => IS sang tri (IS IS ) 0 1
IS ct LM ti E (r , Y )

1 0 0 0 0 Ti E0 (r0, Y0), BOP > 0 => e

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 7

e = const => mua ngoi t => SM => r (r0 r1)=> I => AD

=> Y => LM0 sang phi (LM0 LM1) ct IS1 ti E1(r1, Y0) * Khi r , I = G , nn Y mi l mc sn lng Y0

Kt qu: r, Y khng i => Chnh sch khng hiu qu. b) Tac ng cua Chinh sach tin t. Ngn hang nha nc thc hin chinh sach tin t thu hep bng cach giam lng cung tin, ng LM dich chuyn ln trn (LM0 LM1), ct ng IS0 tai E1 (Y1, r1). Tai im E1, nn kinh t chi at trang thai cn bng bn trong, con can cn thanh toan co s thng d nn ty gia hi oai giam. gi ty gia hi oai khng thay i, Ngn hang nha nc phai mua ngoai t nn cung tin tng va ng LM dich chuyn xung di (LM1 LM0) va nn kinh t tr lai vi tri cn bng cu, im E0. Kt qua: lai sut khng i, san lng khng i trong trng hp vn c inh, ti gia c inh thi chinh sach tin t cung v hiu. SM => r => I => AD => Y =>LM sang tri (LM LM ) => LM 0 1 1 ct IS0 ti E1(r1,Y1) Ti E1, BOP > 0 e

e = const, CB mua ngoi t ( tng SM) => SM => r => LM1 sang phi (LM1 LM0) => tr v E0 (r0, Y0).

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 8

* Kt qu: r khng i, Y khng i => CSTT m rng khng hiu qu Nh vy, trong c ch ti gia hoai oai c inh vi lung vn c inh thi chinh sach tai khoa va chinh sach tin t u bi v hiu.

Cu 3: Phn tch chnh sch ti kha, chnh sch tin t trong c ch t gi c nh, vn
lun chuyn c kim sot.
I.

T gi hi oi c nh

Trong trng hp t gi hi oi c nh v s lun chuyn vn c kim sot, chnh sch tin t cng v hiu. Vi cam k gi t gi hi oi c nh, CB phi t ng thay i cung tin t gi t gi hi oi khng thay i. Trong hnh 1, bt u ti im A, gi s ngn hng trung ng tng cung tin; ng LM chuyn sang phi, ct ng IS0 ti B. Nhng ti B cn cn thanh ton c thm ht: lung vn vo rng gim v thu nhp tng. T gi hi oi tng v thng cu trong th trng ngoi hi. gi t gi hi oi c nh, ngn hng trung ng phi bn ngoi t. Cung tin gim v ng LM dch chuyn v v tr c ti A.

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 9

Trong hnh 2 ng BP tng i phng hn ng LM, hm mc lu ng vn tng i cao. Trong trng hp ng BP dc hn ng LM mc lu ng vn tng i thp, kt lun trn vn khng thay i. Tri vi chnh sch tin t, chnh sch ti kho c hiu lc v hiu lc ca chnh sch ti kho tu theo mc lu ng vn. Ta thy, Y tng khi G tng v mc lu ng vn cng cao th s nhn chi tiu cng ln.

Trong hnh 3, ng BP dc hn ng LM hm mc lu ng vn tng i thp. Bt u ti im E, gi s chnh ph tng chi tiu G; ng IS dch chuyn sang phi; thu nhp tng v xut khu rng gim. Nhng v s lu ng vn tng i thp, ti im F, mc du li sut tng, mc tng trong lung vn vo rng khng b tr mc gim trong xut khu rng cho nn cn cn thanh ton c thm ht. T gi hi oi tng v thng cu trong th trng ngoi hi. gi t gi hi oi khng thay i, ngn hng trung ng phi bn ngoi t, cung tin gim v ng LM dch chuyn sang tri. Ti im G, v tr cn bng mi, thu nhp tng. Nu ng BP phng hn ng LM trng hp vn lu ng tng i cao, nh trong hnh 3 th cng mt mc tng chi tiu ca chnh ph nhng tng thu nhp ln hn. T im B, tng G th ng IS chuyn sang phi, thu nhp v li sut tng. Thu nhp tng th xut khu rng gim v li sut tng th lung vn vo rng tng. V lu ng vn tng i cao, ti im C, mc tng ca lung vn vo ln hn mc gim ca xut khu nn cn cn thanh ton c thng d. T gi hi oi gim v thng cung trong th trng ngoi t. gi t gi hi oi c nh, ngn hng trung ng mua ngoi t; cung tin tng v ng LM dch chuyn sang phi. Ti im D, v tr cn bng mi, thu nhp tng v mc tng ca thu nhp trong trng hp ny ln hn mc tng ca thu nhp trong trng hp mc lu ng ca vn tng i thp. II. Phi hp chnh sch ti kho v tin t Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2 Page 10

S phn tch hiu qu ca chnh sch ti kho v tin t trong trng hp lu chuyn vn c kim sot v t gi hi oi c nh va trnh by cho thy rng mc tiu cn bng ngoi v cn bng ni tng ng vi ton dng c th c hiu lc ng thi bng cch dng t hp thch nghi gia chnh sch ti chnh v tin t m khng cn quan tm n nhng bin php nh thay i gi ca ng ni t, thu quan, tr cp xut khu hay kim sot trc tip lng nhp khu. Trong hnh 4, gi s Y0 = thu nhp hin thc v Y* = thu nhp ton dng, ngha l nn kinh t trong tnh trng suy thoi. Nu chnh sch ti chnh v tin t c phi hp c phi hp ng thi chuyn ng IS v Lm sang phi IS 1 v LM1, th thu nhp ton dng c th thc hin c ng thi cn cn thanh ton vn trong trng thi cn bng. Trong trng hp ny, t hp thch nghi ca chnh sch ti chnh v tin t l chnh sch ti chnh v tin t m rng. Trong hnh 5 t hp thch nghi gia chnh sch ti kho v tin t l chnh sch ti chnh m rng v chnh sch thu hp tin t. Y = Y* v ng thi gi cn bng trong cn cn thanh ton, chnh ph tng G ( hay gim T ) v ngn hng trung ng gim cung tin. S phn tch va trnh by da trn gi thit chnh sch ti chnh v tin t c phn b mt cch hon ton. Trong th gii hin thc, gi thit v s phi hp hon ton gia chnh sch ti chnh v tin t c l khng c thit thc. Trong trng hp ny, t mc tiu cn bng ngoi ng thi vi cn bng ni tng ng vi mc thu nhp ton dng cn phi c s phn cng thch hp gia chnh sch ti chnh v tin t. Nu khng c s phn cng gia chnh sch ti chnh v tin t (hay s phn cng khng c thch hp) th c th gy ra hu qu khng thun li.

Chuyn 5B Kinh t v m 2

Page 11

You might also like