Phn tch c bn Phn tch c bn l nn tng ca u t.

Phn tch c bn l nn tng ca u t. Thc t, mt vi ngi cn ni rng bn ko thc s u t nu bn ko thc hin cc phng php phn tch c bn. Nhng v ch ca phng php ny qu rng nn rt kh nm bt c nn bt u t u. C v s chin thut u t khc nhau, nhng hu ht u dng cc yu t c bn ny. Phng php phn tch c bn l s kim nh nhng yu t ch cht nh hng n hot ng tn ti ca mt nn kinh t, mt nhm cng nghip v cc cng ty. Nh vi hu ht cc phng php phn tch, mc tiu ca phng php ny l gip a ra cc d on v thu li t nhng hot ng ca gi c trong tng lai. mc cng ty, cc phn tch c bn c th bao gm kim nh cc d liu ti chnh, s qun l, hot cnh kinh t v s cnh tranh. mc cng nghip, c th c s kim nh v ngun cung v ngun cu ca sn phm c ngh. Cn mc kinh t quc gia ( mc m chng ta ang quan tm ), phn tch c bn tp trung vo cc d liu kinh t nm bt c hin ti v tng lai pht trin ca mt nn kinh t. Mc tiu ca phn hng dn ny l cung cp nn mng hiu c phng php phn tch c bn ny. Phng php ny ch yu l ln s vo nhng nh u t non tr - nhng ngi m cha bit c d ch mt bng cn i ti chnh ca mt bo co thu nhp. Trong khi bn c th ko phi l "mt ngi chi kit xut" vo cui phn hng dn ny, bn vn s c c mt nn tng hiu bit vng chc v ngn ng v hot cnh phn tch th trng tin t v c th s dng iu nng cao hiu bit ca bn trong cc lnh vc khc m ko cm thy mnh hon ton b lc ng. Phn ln nht ca phn tch c bn bao gmnghin cu o su vo cc bo co ti chnh. Cng c bit n vi tn gi phn tch nh lng (quantiative analysis),

phng php ny bao gm c theo di cc ch s nh doanh thu, chi ph, ti sn, n v tt c nhng kha cnh khc ca mt vt th kinh t ( nh l cng ty hoc quc gia. Cc nh phn tch c bn nhn vo thng tin ny nng cao tm nhn v hot ng trong tng lai ca mt nn kinh t. Phn ln phn hng dn ny mnh s ni v cc loi news ch cht, cc bo co ti chnh quan trng v cch kt hp nhng yu t li vi nhau. d on gi c trong tng lai, phn tch c bn kt hp phn tch kinh t, cng nghip v cc yu t v m khc nm c gi tr thc t ca hin ti v d on gi tr trong tng lai. Nu gi tr thc t ny ko bng vi gi tr hin ti, cc nh phn tch k thut tin rng cp tin mt l ang b nh gi thp hoc hai l b nh gi qu cao v ko sm th mun gi th trng cng s i theo qu o hng v gi tr thc t . Cc nh phn tch c bn ko n "li khuyn ca nhng k qua ng" v tin rng th trng c " nng sut" dng thp. V tin rng gi cn ko phn nh chnh xc tt c mi thng tin sn c, cc nh phn tch c bn lun hng v vic li dng nhng yu t c v nh ko nht qun ca gi c.

K t ut p

Forex

Trn th trng ti chnh, th trng hi oi l th trng c tnh thanh khon cao nht v doanh s giao dch ln nht, vt xa doanh s giao dch ca th trng c phiu v tri phiu. Th trng hi oi l ni m ng tin quc gia ny c th i ly mt ng tin quc gia khc. Hin nay, doanh s mua bn ngoi t bnh qun mt ngy trn th trng hi oi quc t ln ti trn 1.500 t USD. i tng tham gia th trng cng rt a dng: Ngn hng Trung ng, Ngn hng thng mi, cc cng ty xut nhp khu, u t nc ngoi, dch v quc t, khch du lchc bit l c s tham gia thng xuyn ca cc nh mi gii, nh kinh doanh tin t. Vn quan trng l chng ta s bn hoc mua ngoi t khi no c th mang li hiu qu cao nht?

T gi hi oi l gi c ca mt n v tin t nc ny c o lng bng mt s lng n v tin t nc khc. T gi l loi gi c rt phc tp vi nhng bin ng rt mnh v nhanh bui sng c th l 118 JPY/USD, chiu c th l 120 JPY/USD. T gi rt nhy cm vi nhng yu t v kinh t- chnh tr -x hi- chin tranh -thin tai v c yu t tm l. Trn th trng ti chnh ni chung v th trng hi oi ni ring cc chuyn gia thng dng 2 cch phn tch sau y d bo gi: phn tch k thut (Technical analysis) v phn tch c bn (Fundamental analysis). + Phn tch c bn (Fundamental analysis) l phng php phn tch tp trung vo vic nghin cu cc l do hoc nguyn nhn lm cho gi tng ln hoc gim xung. N ch n cc lc lng tc ng n cung cu tin t trn th trng: li sut, lm pht, tng trng kinh t, xut nhp khu, u t tng ca phng php ny l tin n mt gi tr d on v gi tr sinh li tim n ca mt th trng xc nh xem th trng c nh gi cao hn hoc thp hn gi tr thc. Phn kh nht ca phng php ny l quyt nh xem thng tin no v bao nhiu tin c tnh vo c cu gi hin hnh. Cc l thuyt chnh ca phn tch c bn l : L thuyt ng gi sc mua (PPP), l thuyt ngang gi li sut (IRP), m hnh cn cn thanh ton quc t, m hnh th trng vn, + Phn tch k thut ( Technical analysis ) n gin l mt phng php d bo da vo nghin cu v qu kh, tm l v quy lut xc sut. N tt nhin khng phi l khng tht bi nhng n l mt k thut kinh doanh rt ng nghin cu. Phn tch k thut ch yu l da vo th t gi v s lng mua bn ca qu kh c tp hp li d on khuynh hng ca t gi trong tng lai. Phn tch k thut c tnh linh hot, d s dng v nhanh chng, nhng nh kinh doanh ngn hn, trung hn, di hn c t do chn la. iu lu l phn tch k thut c th l cng c gip ta d bo xu hng ng, nhng n phi c s dng theo nguyn tc c tnh ton ch khng phi theo cm tnh. Thi gian lp biu phn tch l do mi nh kinh doanh la chn c

th s dng phn tch k thut trong ngy ( cc dng 5 pht, 30 pht hay mi gi), trong tun hoc trong thng. Cc l thuyt chnh ca phn tch k thut l: l thuyt Dow, l thuyt Fibonacci, l thuyt Elliott WaveTrong phn tch k thut c cc gi nh: th trng phn ng trc mi s kin xy ra, gi c bin ng theo mt khuynh hng nht nh, s bin ng gi c thng lp li theo chu k v c s lp li ca gi c trong qu kh vo tng lai (history repeats itself).

Nh vy mi loi hnh phn tch c nhng im mnh v im yu ring. V vy nh kinh doanh trong hot ng kinh doanh phi bit linh hot s dng cc cng c ny cng vi quyt nh trc quan ca mnh ra quyt nh nhanh chng v chnh xc 1. Mt s tch - Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP): Bt c mt quc gia no cng mun duy tr mt nn kinh t tng trng cng vi s n nh tin t v cng n vic lm cho dn c m GDP l mt trong nhng tn hiu c th ca nhng n lc ca chnh ph. V th vic nghin cu khuynh hng ca s tng trng GDP, t l tht nghip cng nh t l lm pht gip chnh ph c th thay i chnh sch tint t c nhng mc tiu ra. V d khi c thng tin GDP ca nc no tng ln th l tin tt cho ng tin nc - Ch s gi c tiu dng(CPI): L mt trong nhng ch s kinh t quan trng ca mt quc gia. V vy s gia tng nhanh hoc gim nhanh ca lm pht l mt du hiu cho thy rt c kh nng c mt s thay i trong chnh sch tin t. - Sn lng cng nghip (Industrial Production): V gi tr ca ngnh cng nghip chim mt t trng ln trong GDP nn mt s thay i nh ca ch s ny cng c th gy ra nhng thay i ln v tc tng trng GDP v v th s nh hng n th trng tin t ca mi quc gia. s, t ti ki t t s d tro p

- S lng hng ha bn l (Retail sales): Bng vic theo di s lng hng ha bn l trong mt thi gian nht nh chnh ph c th nh gi c mt cch gn chnh xc s tng trng ca vic tiu dng c nhn ca dn c, m vic tiu dng ca x hi ng gp rt ln vo gi tr ca GDP. - Hng tn kho (Inventories) : T l hng tn kho l mt yu t quan trng i vi s pht trin ca nn kinh t. V d nu t l tn kho tng cao tc l sc mua trong nn kinh t ang c chiu hng gim st s gy nh hng n hot ng sn xut hng ha trong nn kinh t v ngc li. - Ch s chng khon (Stock index): y c coi l mt trong nhng phong v biu ca nn kinh t. Nu ch s chng khon tng mnh th hin c s gia tng u t mnh m ca dn chng vo TTCK tc l ngi dn tin tng vo s pht trin trong tng lai gn ca nn kinh t - Ngoi ra trn th trng cn c rt nhiu cc ch s quan trong khc m bt c mt dealer no cng quan tm nh: M2, li sut chit khu, tri phiu, ch s tht nghipV d vo u thng 5.2003 c thng tin ch s tht nghip trong thng 4 ca M tng t 5.8% (thng 3.2003) ln 6%, lm cho ng USD gim gi mnh trn th trng hi oi quc t. 2. Mt s k t ut d tro p t k t ut

Lp cc biu (charting) v tnh cc ch s k thut (technical indicator). Thit lp cc biu v t gi: y l mt lnh vc khng th thiu ca phn tch k thut, gi tr ca n l gip chng ta thy s tn ti cc xu hng ca th trng, to thun li cho vic nghin cu v ch ra sm nht khi cc xu hng ny i chiu. chnh l mc tiu quan trng m cc nh kinh doanh cn hng n. Mt s biu gi quan trng ang c s dng trong phn tch k thut:

- Mc mua c li (support) mun ch mt khu vc cu hoc mua trc (trc l y), ni ngi ta d on hot ng mua s tng ln mt ln na kim tra vic gim gi. Mc bn c li (resistance) l khu vc cung hoc bn trc (trc l nh), ni c th d on hot ng bn s tip tc xy ra ngn vic tng gi. - Cc xu hng (trends) v ng xu hng (trendline) : mt xu hng tng l mt dy cc nh v y theo chiu tng ln v ngc li vi xu hng gim. Cc ng xu hng cho php xc nh cc mc mua bn c li, tin hnh cc trng thi mi hoc ngng l. - M hnh u v vai (head&shoulders) S-H-S: L m hnh o chiu c ting nht v ng tin cy nht. M hnh ny c c th bi 3 im nh ni bt ca th trng, ci u (head) nh gia cao hn cc nh bao quanh hai bn (left shoulder - right shoulder), mt ng vin c (neckline) c v di cc im y phn hi ct ngang, s dng li di ng vin c hon tt vic to lp m hnh v cho thy du hiu v s o chiu quan trng ca th trng. Nh u t c th t lnh dng l (stop loss) khi im cui cng ca bn vai phi nhp vo ng vin c - M hnh song nh v y (double tops and bottoms): c hnh thnh khi cc im cao hoc thp k tip dng li ti cc mc xp x ging nhau. V vy nh u t c th bn di ng vin c hoc khi ng vin c b thm nhp v nn t lnh dng l (stop loss nm gia hai nh (tops). - C v c ui nheo (flags and pennants): Chng l cc m hnh gi c kh nng kim li nhun rt cao. Chng thng nh du cc im dng ngn hoc cc giai on ngh trong s si ng ca din bin th trng. N nh du trung im (the halfway point) trong dch chuyn ca th trng. Ngoi cc m hnh trn, nh phn tch cn s dng cn s dng nhiu m hnh khc: m hnh tam nh v y (triple tops & bottoms), m hnh cc tam gic cn (symmetrical triangles)..

 Ch s k thut (Technical indicators): Nhng biu trn c u im l n gin, nhng c nhc im l ch quan. Do khc phc nhc im ny, cc chuyn gia phn tch cng vi cng nghip in ton tnh ra hn 100 ch s k thut (technical indicators) gip cho vic mua bn mang tnh khoa hc hn. Vic la chn ch s no trong 100 ch s l tu thuc vo quan im ca ngi u t. Nhng ch s k thut quan trng: - Ch s trung bnh ng MA (Moving average): l mt k thut gip san bng hay loi tr nhng bin ng ngu nhin hng ngy ca gi c gip nh kinh doanh c tng v hng i ca th trng. Ch s MA nh mt b lc xu hng (a trend filter) v nguyn l c bn ca n l nn mua khi gi ln trn mc trung bnh, ngc li nn bn khi gi i xung di mc trung bnh. C 3 loi trung bnh ng : n gin (simple), gia quyn (weighted) v ly tha (exponential). Trong , trung bnh ng n gin c s dng nhiu nht. - Ch s trung bnh ng n gin SMA (Simple moving average) l trung bnh ton hc lin tc ca mt dy s liu qua mt giai on c th ( x ngy ). V d tnh ch s trung bnh ng 8 ngy ca ngy hm nay l trung bnh ca ngy hm nay v 7 ngy trc (thng thng l s dng gi ng ca), qu trnh ny c tip din lin tc qua mi ngy. C 3 h thng trung ng ph bin: n (single) kp (double), b ba (triple). Trong h thng trung bnh ng s dng hai ng trung bnh c s dng ph bin hn. H thng ny bao gm mt ng trung bnh di hn (longer-term average) c tc dng xc nh xu hng v mt ng trung bnh ngn hn (shorter-term average) cho bit cc tn hiu giao dch khi n ct ngang ng trung bnh di hn. Nh kinh doanh s mua khi ng trung bnh ngn hn ct ln trn ng trung bnh di hn v bn khi n ct xung. an ton hn, cc nh kinh doanh cng c th ch c hi khi xut hin cc giao im vng (golden crossover) v giao im cht (dead crossover).

- Giao im vng (golden crossover) xut hin khi c 2 ng trung bnh ng ngn hn v di hn u ang hng ln khi v sau khi chng ct nhau. Lc ny cc nh kinh doanh nn mua v l du hiu biu th gi s cn tip tc tng ln. - Giao im cht (dead crossover) xut hin khi c 2 ng trung bnh ng ngn hn v di hn ang i xung khi v sau khi chng ct nhau. Lc ny cc nh u t nn bn v gi s cn xung na. - ng trung bnh ng dch chuyn (displaced moving average) ch n gin l di chuyn ton b ng trung bnh ng sang bn phi, tc l n mt giai on nht nh trong tng lai. - Ch s ng lng (momentum) : Ch s ny cung cp mt thc o chnh xc v vn tc ca th trng. Cch tnh ch s ng lung rt n gin l ta ly gi ng ca ngy hm nay tr i gi ng ca ca x ngy trc y, kt qu s l mt s dng hoc mt s m c nh du xung quanh ng zr. Nu th trng ang i ln, ng ng lng s ct ln trn ng trung ha (neutral line) v thng thng dc ln v ngc li. Ngoi ra, trong thc t cc nh phn tch chuyn nghip cn dng nhiu ch s k thut phc tp m tc gi cng ang hc hi nh: Phng php giao dch hi t- phn k trung bnh ng MACD, ch s Cambridge Hook, ng dao ng TRIX, ch s sc mnh RSI, ch s chuyn ng nh hng DMI Nh vy, chng ta c nhng phng php phn tch cn bn m tc gi thu nhn t nhng sch v nc ngoi, nh u t khi s dng phi ht sc cn thn v nn tp th trc khi i din vi s tht. Bi theo thng thng, mi th trn i l s trao i gia ri ro v phn thng (Everything in life is a trade-off between risk and reward). Tuy nhin nu chng ta cn c, chm ch lm vic c k hoch v mt cht may mn bn s thnh cng.

Giao d

t eo ti t (Tradi

t e News)

Giao dch theo tin tc ang tr thnh mt k thut ph bin giao dch trong th trng forex. Bn c th thy cp tin bin ng 50 100 pips trong vi pht v thm ch trong vi giy sau khi mt tin tc quan trng c cng b. Khi bn nhn thy iu ny, ti cc rng bn s ngh : 50-100 pips!? Tht d kim tin! C th v cng c th khng. Tt c ph thuc vo cch bn chun b giao dch khi tin tc c cng b. Mc ch ca bi hc ny khng phi bn c mt chin thut ring giao dch theo tin tc. Mc ch ca bi hc ny l nh hng ng cho bn v ch cho bn thy mt s ri ro khi giao dch kiu ny. Ti sao iao d t eo ti t

Giao dch theo tin tc cng b c th l mt cng c quan trng cho bn. Nu bn mun, n c th l mt v kh. Cc bo co tin tc kinh t thng to cc bin ng mnh ngn hn trong th trng v l c hi giao dch ln cho cc trader giao dch theo breakout. Forex l mt th trng m ca sut 24 gi mt ngy v l mt th trng ton cu thc s, trong mt ngy giao dch c nhiu c hi th trng bin ng mnh bi mt bo co tin tc kinh t. Giao d vi p ti o

y l danh sch cc ng tin v quc gia quan trng m bn nn quan tm n tin tc

By gi, c nhiu ng tin hn giao dch nhng danh sch trn da trn tm c ca nn kinh t mi quc gia, mc thng xuyn ca cc cng b tin tc v tnh thanh khon ca ng tin. T i ia ti t

Danh sch bn di cho bit thi gian cc thng tin kinh t quan trng nht c cng b theo tng quc gia.

ti t

t iao d

Vi tt c cc quc gia k trn, c t 5 n 10 thng tin kinh t c cng b mi ngy. Cc tin tc ny c cng b theo lch c trc v vy bn bit chnh xc lc no bn c th lp lch giao dch c th giao dch theo tin tc. C th bn ngh rng 5 n 10 tin trong mt ngy l nhiu, nhng thc s bn khng phi quan tm n tt c cc tin m bn c th chn nhng tin cn quan tm. C mt s bo co quan trng c th to bin ng nhiu, phn ln cc bo co ny c cng b mi thng. Vi bi hc ny, chng ta s quan tm n cc bo co kinh t v tin tc ca M, bi v hu nh ng la M lin quan n phn ln cc giao dch tin t, v do c

nh hng quan trng trn th trng tin t. y l danh sch mt s bo co c nh hng nhiu nht : * Employment Growth * Interest Rate decisions * Trade Balance * Gross Domestic Product * Retail Sales * Durable Goods * Inflation reports (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index) * Foreign Purchases report (TIC Data) Mi quc gia c nhng bo co tng t vi danh sch trn v c kh nng gy bin ng. Mt ln na, bi v cc bo co ny c cng b theo lch nn c nhiu website trn Internet c lch cng b cc bo co km vi nh gi mc nh hng. N iu it k i iao d t eo ti t

By gi chng ta bit th no v khi no c th giao dch theo tin tc, c mt s khi nim quan trng m bn nn bit trc khi giao dch theo tin tc : * Trong khi con s trong bo co hoc tin tc l yu t quan trng i vi bin ng ca cp tin trong di hn, th trong ngn hn s sai bit gia mong i ca th trng v con s cng b tht l nguyn nhn gy bin ng breakout. iu ny c ngha l con s trong bo co ging nh mi ngi mong i hu nh khng gy bin ng mnh trn th trng

* Th trng yn lng hn trc khi tin tc c cng b, th trng cng yn lng hn i vi cc tin quan trng. Khi th trng yn lng, t ngi mua v cn t ngi bn, kh nng mi ngi ang i mt iu g (chng hn nh mt tin tc). Khi iu ch i xut hin, tt c cc trader u nhy vo cng lc theo cng mt hng v gy nn bin ng cc ln trn th trng. V vy cng nhiu trader i (th trng cng yn lng), th cng nhiu trader nhy vo khi tin tc c cng b (bin ng cng ln). * Ty thuc vo tm quan trng ca bo co kinh t, v s chnh lch gia con s thc v con s d bo, m breakout xy ra trong thi gian ngn ngi c th ch vi pht hoc thm ch vi giy. Giao dch theo cng b tin tc c l ch ph hp cho scalper hoc day trader. Ri ro : Trc khi theo ui ci g chng ta phi bit chnh xc ci chng thep ui. Chng ta nghe v cc mt li v ti sao chng ta nn giao tch theo tin tc, nhng iu quan trng hn l chng ta phi bit c cc ri ro. M iao d k i mo mu

Bin ng th trng c th tng mnh trong sut thi gian cng b tin tc, ngha l gi c th bin ng 5 n 20 pips trong vi giy (hay thm ch 50 pips hoc hn na i vi tin tc quan trng). Nu bn c gng m giao dch trong lc bin ng mnh, bn s m c giao dch vi gi khc xa gi bn mong mun. y l mt ri ro ln vi cc lnh limit order. V d, ti t lnh order trn cp EUR/USD vi broker 15 pht trc khi cng b tin tc. ng lc trc khi cng b tin tc, th trng gi 1.2320. Ti t lnh limit order m giao dch long vi gi 1.2360, profit target l 1.2383. Tin tc xu cho ng USD khin cho gi tng vt ln 80 pips ngay sau khi tin tc c cng b. Giao dch long ca ti c m nhng vi gi 1.2390 trn 30 pips so vi gi order!!! Sau th trng i

xung mt cht v giao dch long b ng ti gi profit target l 1.2383. May mn l ch mt 7 pips, nhng y l mt bi hc ng gi. K t order

Mt s broker khng cho t lnh limit v market order ngay trc khi cng b mt tin tc quan trng (mt s broker khng cho trc 30 pht n 1 gi). iu ny thng xy ra vi cc broker c spread c nh. Bi v khi c tin tc spread bin ng rt ln v nu broker cho m giao dch vi spread c nh th h s l. Bi t

Trong thi gian cng b cc bo co kinh t hoc tin tc, th trng c th bin ng ln xung t 20 n 50 pips trong mt giy! Bin ng khi c tin tc c th rt ri ro k c i vi cc trader nhiu kinh nghim. Bn c th n c mt bin ng mnh, nhng cng c th ri vo tnh hung th trng o chiu v giao dch ca bn thua rt nhanh. Spreads Mt s broker c th cho php bn giao dch khi c tin tc nhng vi spread khng c nh v bn s thy spread t ngt tng mnh (c th t 2-3 pips tng ln 14 pips trong khong thi gian cng b tin tc). Nu bn mun kim vi pips th kh nng thu li ca bn qu thp, trong khi kh nng thua th cm chc trong tay. C p p p iao d t eo ti t

Straddles -

02 u

n chn l phng php d s dng v t phi suy ngh, nhng y l phng php ri ro nht trong giao dch theo tin tc. n chn bn t mt lnh limit order m long trn vi pip so vi gi cao nht trc khi c tin tc, v tng t t mt lnh

limit order m short di vi pips so vi gi thp nht. Nu tin tc cng b to bin ng mnh th cc order ca bn s c thc thi v stop loss, profit target cng s t ng thc thi khi gi chm n. Rt n gin. Mt ln na, nghe th rt d nhng phi ch rng phng php ny c th c long v short u c m v nu SL, TP t khng hp l th c 02 giao dch u b ng l rt nhiu. Hy xem li cc ri ro. "Trading the Numbers" Phng php ny c a chung hn bi v ri ro t hn nhiu so vi phng php straddle. Trc tin, bn phi xc nh c mc quan trng ca tin tc sp c cng b. Khng phi tt c tin tc cng b u c th giao dch, bi v c th tin tc cng b khng gy bin ng hoc bin ng ban u khi va c tin tc s rt in khng m iu ny th rt nguy him cho bn khi nhy vo giao dch. V d, c l D tr Lin bang lin quan n lm pht. Bt k d liu no lin quan n lm pht (ch s gi ngi tiu dng CPI, cc pht biu m ch n chnh sch tin t tng lai) s c FED quan tm cht ch, v ci g FED quan tm th trader quan tm. Bt k tin tc cng b no dng ny u c th l mt c hi ln bn giao dch min l bn ch n cc ri ro. Bc k tip l theo di cng b tin tc v xem th con s kinh t hoc bo co ang c cng b nh th no so vi th trng mong i (con s d on). Nu con s bo co tt hoc tt mt cch kinh ngc th bn s m giao dch long cho ng tin v ngc li (trong thc t i khi khng hon ton ng). V d, bo co vic lm ca US c th trng mong i l 200K vic lm mi, v con s cng b chnh thc l 300K. l con s tng trng cao cho th trng lao

ng US. Bn s m giao dch long ngay khi tin tc c cng b v hy vng s kim c li nhun t bin ng. Nu tin tc cng b gn bng d bo th khng thc hin giao dch. Tm tt Nghe c v qu d phi khng??? Nhng khng u, bn s phi thc hnh v th giao dch vi nhiu loi tin tc khc nhau trc khi bn c th cm nhn c tin tc cng b s gy bin ng th trng nh th no, con s cng b chnh lch vi d bo bao nhiu th mi gy bin ng, v tin tc no th nn trnh. Ging nh bt k phng php giao dch no khc, thnh cng ca bn ty thuc vo s chun b v t tin ca bn i vi system v phng php giao dch ca mnh. iu ny s mt nhiu thi gian v cng sc thc hnh. Hy tm hiu v cc ch s kinh t v tm quan trng ca chng. Nhng g qu gi khng th c c mt cch d dng, v vy bn hy c gng v bn s thy rng giao dch theo tin tc mang li cho bn c hi kim li nhun rt tt khi bn kim sot c n.
Mt s khi nim v ch s kinh t c bn Nhng khi nim kinh t c bn c cng b c nh hng ln trong u t forex 1. B No Farm

y l mt trong nhng bn bo co c mong i nht ca M, Non-farm payrolls l mt bn bo co kp thi v bc tranh ca th trng vic lm M : gia tng, tt gim, s gi lm vic, s lng thng ... Nhng t liu trong bn bo co c thu thp t 2 cuc kho st l Household Surveys v Establishment ( payroll) Survey ( Bo co theo h gia nh v bo co theo bng lng). Trong khi tng s vic lm tng ln hay gim i i vi nn kinh t l mt kim ch nam rt quan trng cho hin trng kinh t th bo co ny li c nhng thng k m hon ton c nh hng n th trng ti chnh:

Ch s tht nghip i vi kinh t nh mt t l ca ton b lc lng lao ng. y l mt phn quan trng ca bn bo co v s ngi tht nghip l mt du hiu ca tng th kinh t, v y l mt con s c ngn hng Lin Bang theo di rt k v khi ch s ny h xung mc qa thp ( thng l di 5%) th lm pht s bt u hnh thnh v cc doanh nghip s phi tr nhiu tin hn thu nhng th lnh ngh v vic gi thnh sn phm gia tng cng l iu ng nhin. Ch ra b phn no c s tng hay gim v cng vic: Bn ba co c th a ra s cnh bo cho nhng trader v mng kinh t no c th bung n pht trin. Thu nhp trung bnh hng gi : y l mt yu t quan trng v nu cng mt lng nhn cng nh nhau nhng li kim nhiu hn hay t hn cho mt khi lng cng vic , iu ny v cn bn l ni ln vic cn phi tng hay gim nhn cng cho khi lng cng vic . Dng xem li ch s ca ln ra tin NFP trc : Mt yu t quan trng khc ca bo co l c th gy ra nhng bin ng trong th trng v traders t ln khung nhng chiu hng pht trin ca news da vo ch s c. Lch cng b: Th Su u tin ca thng vo lc 8g30 sng EST 2. N quyt v i sut a FOMC

Federal open market committee- FOMC: L y ban ra chnh sch li sut v tn dng ca h thng d tr lin bang, c quan quan trng nht lm ra chnh sch tin t, hin nay ng u l ch tch Ben S.Bernanke. FOMC hp 8 ln mt nm, trong cc bui hp ny cc thnh vin FOMC s xem xt chnh sch tin t nn thay i nh th no? Th trng m lin bang thnh lp ra gim gi li sut m Cc d tr lin bang tnh vo thnh vin gi tin ngn hng cho nhng s n qua m. Li sut c thit lp trong sut nhng cuc hp FOMC ca nhng ngn hng khu vc v Cc d tr lin bang Lch cng b: mi nm c 8 cuc hp. Ngy c bit trc v th hy kim tra trn lch kinh t. 3. C t mi:

Cn cn thng mi o s khc nhau ca gi tr hng ha v dch v m 1 quc gia xut khu v gi tr hng ho dch v m n nhp khu. Cn cn thng mi thng d nu gi tr ca hng xut khu vt qua hng nhp khu, ngc li, nu cn cn thng mi thm ht xy ra nu hng nhp khu vt qu hng xut khu. Lch cng b: ni chung thng c cng b vo khong gia ca thng th 2 theo sau thi k bo co. Bn nn kim tra lch kinh t mi thng. 4. CPI - C s i tiu du CPI l thc o chnh ca nn lm pht v n o gi ca gi c nh hng ho tiu dng. Gi cao hn c xem l tiu cc cho 1 nn kinh t, nhng v ngn hng trung tm thng p li s lm pht gi bng cch tng li sut nn thnh thong tin t phn ng li 1 cch tch cc trong nhng bo co ca lm pht cao hn. o lng s thay i trung bnh trong gi c hng ha c chi tr bi s lng ngi tiu dng trung bnh cho r hng ho dch v c nh. M th t trng cc hng mc trong r hng ho l nh 42%, thc phm 18%, giao thng 17%, y t 6%, trang sc 6%, gii tr 4%, khc 7%. CPI c s dng rng ri o lng lm pht, l mt ch s quan trng nh hng n cc chnh sch ca chnh ph. Gia tng trong CPI m ch lm pht, l mt ch s quan trng trn th trng v c kh nng thay i th trng, s gia tng ln hn mong i ca lm pht hoc xut hin xu hng gia tng CPI s dn n gi tri phiu gim v li tc v li sut s tng ln. Ch s lm pht cao gy ra s thay i trn th trng chng khon v s dn n thay i trong li sut. Lm pht cao gy nh hng kh xc nh t gi hi oi, n dn n s gim t gi, khi mc gi cao hn ng ngha vi gim nng lc cnh tranh. Lm pht cao dn n tng li sut v p dng chnh sch tht cht tin t. Khng nh phng php o lng lm pht khc, ch bao gm hng ha c sn xut trong nc, CPI bao gm lun hng ha nhp khu. Cc nh phn tch thng tp trung n CPI li, bin th ny chim 8 yu t chim 16% r CPI (tri cy, rau, xng, du, kh gas, li tc vay th chp, giao thng ni th v thuc l). Php tnh ny lm cho CPI c tnh ton mt cch chnh xc hn.

Lch cng b: hng thng - khong ngy 13 mi thng vo lc 8g30 sng EST 5. C s :

Ch s bn l l thc o tng s lng hng ho bn bng cch ly v d ca 1 ca hng bn l. N c s dng nh thc o ca hot ng tiu dng v nim tin khi nhng con s bn cao hn s ch ra hot ng kinh t tng. Lch cng b: hng thng - khong ngy 11 mi thng vo lc 8g30 sng EST. 6. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Ch s ny o lng gi tr th trng ca hng ha v dch v c sn xut trn mt quc gia, khng xt n yu t quc tch ca cc cng ty s hu cc ngun lc ny. C 4 yu t chnh cu thnh gi tr GDP gm : tiu dng, u t, chi tiu chnh ph, xut khu rng. Ch s ny c cng b hng qu trn c s so snh t l % tng gim qu ny so vi qu trc, nm ny so vi nm trc. Ch s ny c nh hng quan trng trn th trng sau khi c cng b. 7. Bo t a : ki doa

Kinh doanh nh c ghi nhn s lng nh c xy dng trc y, cng qun hay hp tc c a ra bn trong thng. Doanh s kinh doanh nh c (hay cn c gi l nh bn li) thng chim th phn ln trong th trng hn l nh mi xy v thng cho bit xu hng ca th trng a c . Ti sao u t qua t m o o y

V cc bo co ny khng nhng dng o lng nhu cu v nh m cn dng o s nng ng ca nn kinh t. Dn chng phi c cm gic d chu v t tin v tnh hnh ti chnh ca h trc khi mua nh. Hn th na, mnh s liu nh ny cn c nh hng nhiu n nn kinh t, v v th n cng tc ng xuyn sut cc th trng cng nh cc khon u t ca bn. Bng cch di theo s liu kinh t nh bo co tnh hnh kinh doanh nh c ny, cc nh

u t c th c c cc tng kinh doanh c th v v th n nh mt kim ch nam cho vic qun l cc danh mc u t ca bn. Mc d, vic kinh doanh nh c khng to ra thm gi tr mi, nhng mi khi nh c bn, n sn sinh ra cc khong li nhun cho cc cng ty kinh doanh a c v ngoi ra n cn em li v s c hi kinh doanh. My git, my ra chn, my sy v cc dng trang tr ni tht ch l vi khon trong tng s nhu cu m ngi mua nh cn phi mua. Vi nn kinh t li tc ng domino ny c gi tr rt quan trng nu bn c ngh rng hng trm ngn cc h gia nh mi mua nh trn ton quc thc hin iu ny mi thng. V tnh chi phi rng khp trn tt c cc th trng ti chnh nh va nu, bo co v tnh hnh kinh doanh nh c c sc tc ng trc tip ln cc th trng chng khon, tri phiu cng nh hng ha (commodities). Ni cch khc, xu hng ca th trng nh c em li sc y cho cc c phiu ca cc cng ty xy dng nh, cho vay vi ti sn th chp l bt ng sn, v cc cng ty kinh doanh hng ni tht. 8. Bo o u a : p a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee

Vo ngy 14 thng 12 nm 2004, y ban th trng m lin bang gi tt l FOMCthng bo h s cng b cc bo bo ca cc phin hp ca h sau 3 tun. y c xem l mt s ci thin ln v trc cc bo co ny ch thng c cng b sau mt khong thi gian t 6 n 8 tun. Bo co ca FOMC thng cho bit cc bi pht biu trong cc cuc hp, m t cc chnh sch nng ng (hoc khng nng ng), cc bo co a n nhiu s cnh bo v cc th trng ti chnh bi v chng cho thy thm nhiu chi tit v cc cuc tho lun gn y nht trong cc cuc hp ca FOMC. Ti sao u t i qua t m o o y

FOMC thng thay i nhanh nh chp cc hot ng ca h. V bo co ny phi by nhng s thay i chnh sch trong cc cuc hp. Trong lch s, Fed (Cc d tr lin bang M)

thng cc nh u t t on cc thay i chnh sch ca h. Trong qu kh, cc thnh vin ca Fed khng bao gi xut hin pht biu thng xuyn nh hin nay. Vi th trng ngy nay, khi cc s kin thng xuyn c cng b th vic c cc bo ca cc cuc hp trong thng trc th khng lun cn thit nh trc y. Tuy nhin, cc bo co bao gm cc phn tch k nn kinh t c tng hp bi cc nhn vin ca Fed, c th l thnh vin hoc khng l thnh vin ca FOMC, thng b sung cc khong trng trong cc phn tch ca cc nh u t. Cc nh u t lun mun bit r thm chi tit cc kin ca Fed thng s c cc bo co k cng nht. Tuy nhin, cc cng b ca Fed v quan im ca h vo cui cc cuc hp ca FOMC thng l cc bi pht biu ra cng chng. Cc thnh vin ca Fed thng pht biu rt nhiu, v a kin ca h ra cng b mt cch rng ri. 9. Gi xut a : p k u

Cc ch s c tng hp t gi c cc loi hng ha m Nc M mua vo (khng tnh lng sn xut ca cc Doanh nghip M nc ngoi) v cc c cc loi hng ha m nc M bn ra khng bao gm cc mt hng c sn xut trong nc. Cc loi gi ny ch ra nhng xu hng lm pht trong cc giao thng hng ha Quc t Ti sao u t qua t m s y

Nhng s thay i trong gi c xut nhp khu c gi tr dng o lng s lm pht trong v ngoi quc gia. Hn th na, s liu c th tc ng mt cch trc tip vo cc th trng ti chnh nh tri phiu v tin t. i vi th trng tri phiu, th trng ny c bit nhy cm n cc ri ro t lm pht nhp khu v n n mn gi tr chnh yu, gi tr c thanh ton li khi cc tri phiu n hn. N cng lm gim gi tr tnh n nh ca dng chy cc khon thanh ton li sut theo hnh thc ny ca tri phiu.

Thng thng lm pht lm tng li sut v l tin xu cho th trng chng khon. Bng cch gim st cc yu t tc ng gy lm pht nh gi c nhp khu, cc nh u t c th theo di cc yu t c th gy nguy him cho danh mc u t ca h. 10. C s a

Hip hi cc nh mi gii nh t quc gia m ch s nh ch bn nh mt ch s dn u trong hot ng nh t. Cng vy, l ch s ca doanh s bn nh ang din ra, khng phi doanh s bn nh mi. Mt ch s ch bn l khi hp ng k, nhng cha chm dt. Thng mt 4 n 6 tun kt thc mt hp ng Ti sao u t qua tm?

iu ny a ra mt tiu chun nh gi khng ch nhu cu nh m c ng lc ca nn kinh t. Ngi ta chc hn u cm thy kh thoi mi v tin tng vo hin trng ti chnh ca h mua mt ngi nh. V li, mt cht s liu ny nh hng a chiu mnh m xuyn sut nn kinh t, v nh vy xuyn sut cc th trng v u t ca bn Bng cch di theo cc s liu kinh t nh ch s nh ch bn o lng c doanh s bn li nh , cc nh u t c th kim c nhng tng u t c th cng nh ch dn khi qut qun l danh mc u t Thm ch d cho doanh s bn li nh khng phi lc no cng to ra output( sn phm, sn lng, s sn xut, nng sut) mi, mt khi nh c bn ri, li nhun cho ngi mi gii cng sn sinh. T lnh, my git, my sy v ni tht ch l vi th ngi mua nh cng cn mua. Hiu ng gn sng trong nn kinh t c th c thc( quan trng, thc cht, thc t, vng v ti chnh), t bit khi bn ngh rng hng thng c mt trm h gia nh lm th ny Bi v nn tng kinh t l nh hng lan rng nht( to khp, lan trn khp) trong th trng ti chnh, doanh s bn li nh lin quan( mi quan h, thi tc phong, ngha, phng din vn ) trc tip ti chng khon, tri phiu v ti nguyn. Trong ngha c th

hn, xu hng ca doanh s nh ang din ra cha ng manh mi c gi tr kinh doanh chng khon vi cc cng ty xy dng, cc nh cho vay tn chp v cc cng ty ni tht Mc d, vic kinh doanh nh c khng to ra thm gi tr mi, nhng mi khi nh c bn, n sn sinh ra cc khong li nhun cho cc cng ty kinh doanh a c v ngoi ra n cn em li v s c hi kinh doanh. My git, my ra chn, my sy v cc dng trang tr ni tht ch l vi khon trong tng s nhu cu m ngi mua nh cn phi mua. Vi nn kinh t li tc ng domino ny c gi tr rt quan trng nu bn c ngh rng hng trm ngn cc h gia nh mi mua nh trn ton quc thc hin iu ny mi thng. V tnh chi phi rng khp trn tt c cc th trng ti chnh nh va nu, bo co v tnh hnh kinh doanh nh c c sc tc ng trc tip ln cc th trng chng khon, tri phiu cng nh hng ha (commodities). Ni cch khc, xu hng ca th trng nh c em li sc y cho cc c phiu ca cc cng ty xy dng nh, cho vay vi ti sn th chp l bt ng sn, v cc cng ty kinh doanh hng ni tht. 8. Bo co cuc hp ca FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) nh ngha : Vo ngy 14 thng 12 nm 2004, y ban th trng m lin bang gi tt l FOMC- thng bo h s cng b cc bo bo ca cc phin hp ca h sau 3 tun. y c xem l mt s ci thin ln v trc cc bo co ny ch thng c cng b sau mt khong thi gian t 6 n 8 tun. Bo co ca FOMC thng cho bit cc bi pht biu trong cc cuc hp, m t cc chnh sch nng ng (hoc khng nng ng), cc bo co a n nhiu s cnh bo v cc th trng ti chnh bi v chng cho thy thm nhiu chi tit v cc cuc tho lun gn y nht trong cc cuc hp ca FOMC. Ti sao cc nh u t li quan tm n cc bo co ny? FOMC thng thay i nhanh nh chp cc hot ng ca h. V bo co ny phi by nhng s thay i chnh sch trong cc cuc hp. Trong lch s, Fed (Cc d tr lin bang M) thng cc nh u t t on cc thay i chnh sch ca h. Trong qu kh, cc thnh vin ca Fed khng bao gi xut hin pht biu thng xuyn nh hin nay. Vi th trng ngy nay, khi cc s kin thng xuyn c cng b th vic c cc bo ca cc cuc hp trong thng trc th khng lun cn thit nh trc y. Tuy nhin, cc bo co bao gm cc phn tch k nn kinh t c tng hp bi cc nhn vin ca Fed, c th l thnh vin hoc khng l thnh vin ca FOMC, thng b sung cc khong trng trong cc phn tch ca cc nh u t. Cc nh u t lun mun bit r thm chi tit cc kin ca Fed thng s c cc bo co k cng nht. Tuy nhin, cc cng b ca Fed v quan im ca h vo cui cc cuc hp ca FOMC thng l cc bi pht biu ra

cng chng. Cc thnh vin ca Fed thng pht biu rt nhiu, v a kin ca h ra cng b mt cch rng ri. 9. Gi c xut nhp khu nh ngha : Cc ch s c tng hp t gi c cc loi hng ha m Nc M mua vo (khng tnh lng sn xut ca cc Doanh nghip M nc ngoi) v cc c cc loi hng ha m nc M bn ra khng bao gm cc mt hng c sn xut trong nc. Cc loi gi ny ch ra nhng xu hng lm pht trong cc giao thng hng ha Quc t . Ti sao cc nh u t cn quan tm n ch s ny ? Nhng s thay i trong gi c xut nhp khu c gi tr dng o lng s lm pht trong v ngoi quc gia. Hn th na, s liu c th tc ng mt cch trc tip vo cc th trng ti chnh nh tri phiu v tin t. i vi th trng tri phiu, th trng ny c bit nhy cm n cc ri ro t lm pht nhp khu v n n mn gi tr chnh yu, gi tr c thanh ton li khi cc tri phiu n hn. N cng lm gim gi tr tnh n nh ca dng chy cc khon thanh ton li sut theo hnh thc ny ca tri phiu. Thng thng lm pht lm tng li sut v l tin xu cho th trng chng khon. Bng cch gim st cc yu t tc ng gy lm pht nh gi c nhp khu, cc nh u t c th theo di cc yu t c th gy nguy him cho danh mc u t ca h. 10. Ch s nh ch bn nh ngha Hip hi cc nh mi gii nh t quc gia m ch s nh ch bn nh mt ch s dn u trong hot ng nh t. Cng vy, l ch s ca doanh s bn nh ang din ra, khng phi doanh s bn nh mi. Mt ch s ch bn l khi hp ng k, nhng cha chm dt. Thng mt 4 n 6 tun kt thc mt hp ng Ti sao cc nh u t quan tm? iu ny a ra mt tiu chun nh gi khng ch nhu cu nh m c ng lc ca nn kinh t. Ngi ta chc hn u cm thy kh thoi mi v tin tng vo hin trng ti chnh ca h mua mt ngi nh. V li, mt cht s liu ny nh hng a chiu mnh m xuyn sut nn kinh t, v nh vy xuyn sut cc th trng v u t ca bn Bng cch di theo cc s liu kinh t nh ch s nh ch bn o lng c doanh s bn li nh , cc nh u t c th kim c nhng tng u t c th cng nh ch dn khi qut qun l danh mc u t Thm ch d cho doanh s bn li nh khng phi lc no cng to ra output( sn phm, sn lng, s sn xut, nng sut) mi, mt khi nh c bn ri, li nhun cho ngi mi gii cng sn sinh. T lnh, my git, my sy v ni tht ch l vi th ngi mua nh cng cn mua. Hiu ng gn sng trong nn kinh t c th c thc( quan trng, thc cht, thc t, vng v ti chnh), t bit khi bn ngh rng hng thng c mt trm h gia nh lm th ny Bi v nn tng kinh t l nh hng lan rng nht( to khp, lan trn khp) trong th trng ti chnh, doanh s bn li nh lin quan( mi quan h, thi tc phong, ngha, phng din vn )

trc tip ti chng khon, tri phiu v ti nguyn. Trong ngha c th hn, xu hng ca doanh s nh ang din ra cha ng manh mi c gi tr kinh doanh chng khon vi cc cng ty xy dng, cc nh cho vay tn chp v cc cng ty ni tht S lc v "Giao dch theo Trend" Trn th gii xa v nay, cc nh u c hu ht u tha nhn... hng "giao dch theo trend" l hng " ng cp" nht, cho nn vic " bt trend" (Catch a Trend) cng chnh l... kh nht. Th gii thng dng t TREND ANALYSIS ni v hng ny... v CATCH A TREND ngm hiu l " XU HNG CHNH" , Ken th "Anh ha" cho ngi Vit c th hn d trao i " Catch a Real Trend"...., v nhiu hn th, s c hng lot t ng c phng tc (lu lm ri) cn thit din nh TREND GI, TREND NON... 1. Gii t iu Trend (Xu hng) l mt khi nim din t mt xu th, chiu hng bin ng ca gi trong mt giai on no . Khi ta quan tm vng chart ln-nh ra sao ty tng khung thi gian th ta s p t cc "xu hng" theo tng phm vi tng ng. Nh vy, Trend cng tng t khi nim "sng" (Wave)... trong trend ny c trend nh hn , ngoi trend ny c trend ln hn bao hm... T y ta nhn din, c th trong khung thi gian H1 chng hn th Trend l Up- v d th, nhng n c th l trong khung thi gian ln hn nh H4 th l Down, v ci trend up trong H1 kia ch l mt on iu chnh trong H4 m thi. Thm ch, trong cng khung thi gian ta quan tm kho st... th cng xut hin nhiu trend ln nh khc nhau... , vy ta cn hiu trend nh cch hiu Sng (Wave).... n ph thuc vo s " quan tm" kho st ca mnh. Nhng, trend ni ln mt xu hng bin ng ang din tin, quan tm n xu hng ny s mang li nhiu tc dng nht nh, nn khi nim trend dn c hu ht nh u c ton cu quan tm. V d khc, nh ta bit... trong sng ln c sng nh hn gn gn, ngoi sng ln ny c sng ln hn bao hm.... t sng no up/ sng no down ph thuc phm vi ta quan tm con sng ln nh ra sao trong thi im no. Trend cng vy, khi cy nn Candlestick D1 (1 ngy) xut hin bi ta ang quan st chart D1, th trong vng thi gian 1 ngy ny gi biu th trn cy nn D1 ny s lin tc ln xung, n mang ngha hnh thnh nhiu sng nh hn trong lng cy nn ny, v ta d dng nhn thy nu phng i s thay i gi bng cch xem khung thi

gian nh hn nh H1, H4. Vy, trend cng th... n c hnh thnh trong cc phm vi v chc chn c hin hu trong cy nn D1 .... nhng nu ta quan st khung thi gian D1, th Trend khng phi l mt cy nn m phi tp hp mt chui cy nn v to nn mt "xu hng bin ng" c.... Ti sao bn cn bit v trend khi tham chin? Cu tr li l: khi bn bit c xu hng bn c th gia tng c hi thu li nhun t s bin ng ca th trng bng cch t lnh theo chiu hng (Open a Position in the direction of the trend) (Thun trend = Trend direction,), Nh u c giao dch nghch chiu trend c th s b th trng trng pht (Thua l).... Bt k nh u c mi vo ngh no cng c th thy rng: i ni dc trn chart c to bi gi th trng , mt nh u c c kinh nghim s c th thy nhng mu biu , m hnh nht nh. Khi th trng bin ng nh vy, s to ra biu mt tp hp cc sng mt cch nht nh. Gi c s to nn nh ni (Peaks) v thung lng (Valleys) hay chng c gi l TOPS v BOTTOMS.

v Tre d (Xu

) s

sau:

Mt xu hng th trng (Trend) l mt xu hng gi nh ca th trng ti chnh bin ng theo mt hng c th theo thi gian. Cc xu hng ny c phn loi nh cc xu hng di hn cho cc khung thi gian di, xu hng chnh cho cc khung thi gian trung bnh, v xu hng ph cho cc khung thi gian ngn. Nh u c xc nh xu hng bng cch s dng phn tch k thut, mt khun kh m c trng cho xu hng th trng nh l mt phn ng gi th trng ti mc h tr v khng c , thay i theo thi gian. 2. N p m t eo i ri - s c nhng t ng phng tc, cch ngh c lp

Hnh 1: M t cc trend trong khung thi gian H1, thu hp nn nhn rng ra....

Hnh 2: Nu xem trong phm vi rng th mt on git trong trend cng c ng im, vy... ty nhu cu v s a chung tng ngi m ta chn xem phm vi, khung thi gian xc nh trend theo phm vi y.... sao cho ph hp vi hon cnh, s a chung ca mnh. V nu ta quan st trend theo phm vi nh trong hnh th mt on " hi" thi cng 100 im, m t lnh cng hng ca trend th thu li nhun chng my trm pips tr ln,,,, c iu nu ta chu ng khng ni " c hi" (n 100 pips) th ta quan tm phm vi hp hn, khi "c hi kia chnh l trend chnh" m ta quan tm...

Khi th trng bin ng v mt hng no , chc chn khng th bin ng xuyn sut v hng , m bao gi cng phi c qu trnh iu chnh, hi... , nn hnh thi gi th trng biu hin trn chart...l mt xu hng tng s c c hi qup nh hoc mt xu hng gim s c c hi qup nh .... s lun gp, v c hi c khi l .... s iu chnh ri li bin ng theo xu hng c, c khi l khi u cho mt xu hng mi....

Hnh 3: Show vn ca TREND ANALYSIS cn ch v hng ti... nh: lm sao phn bit c lc no l TREND RETRACEMENT, lc no l HEAD OF COUNTER TREND l vn t ra ca hng " giao dch theo trend", tt hn l " phn lp" nu l TREND RETRACEMENT ca UPTREND th ta canh thp mua, nu l Trend retracement ca DOWNTREND th ta canh cao bn, nu l Head of Counter trend ca Uptrend th ta SELL, nu

Head of Counter trend ca Downtrend th BUY...., Tuy vy,, phn lp chng theo tng thi im th ng cp qu ri, gii php "lc b" mt ci cng l mt cch " tng cng tnh kh thi" khi s " phn lp" qu kh.... nh ta dng cng c Fibo, Ichimoku etc,,,, cch g lc b mt ci.... v d nh: dng Fibo Fan, Fiboretracement lc b TREND RETRACEMENT.... ngha l khi mt c iu chnh ph v mc 50% ca FIBO (T duy fibo) th ta tm cho l n l HEAD OF COUNTER TREND (Trend nghch va mi nh)... v ta ch cho n qua mc 61.8% cho chc...vn vn.. Ngi Ty th khoi dng Ichimoku.... T t ti s chia s n nhng gii php ni bt c in, hin i m gii u c th gii sng to ra theo hng ny, phn tch n lm r n thnh cng c nhng tiu ch g, v b tay vi nhng vn g..... t hnh thnh nhng l lun mang tnh cn thit cho hng i.... tt nhin, Ken v nhiu ngi khc trn th gii s c nhng gii php c lp cho ring mnh bng nhng s pht trin, sng to..., Ken th c tha k nhng hnh nh qu lu ri nn ko nh mnh tha k nhng g, a s l t nh gi bn cht cc gii php ni bt, nhng my nm gn y... ch ch tm sng to nhng gii php c lp nn a s l chia s theo cch hiu ca ring mnh... t , mong ng o phn bin, trao i... thm.

.1. Trend Gi: - nim Gi y cha hn l khng cn hu dng, nhng xc sut thm ko cn nhiu - Xc nh gi hay cha bng cch no? => Khi nim ny a ra t vn , nn gi hay cha gi kh xc nh c t sm, m thng thng sau khi n bin ng ri v ta ni li history khi mi xc nh n gi hay cha gi m thi. 2.2. Trend non:

- nim Non cho thy ng nui, v khi ta cht li khng chun khng l vn ln lm vn vn , v tt nhin n gn lin vi khi nim vng thm, qu d hnh dung phi ko no. - Lm sao bit n c phi l Trend Non ko? => Khi n hnh thnh mt trend nghch ri, mi khng nh n l trend non. KL : Hai khi nim trn ch c khng nh khi th trng bin ng ri, nhng ta cn nm l thuyt ny hnh thnh gii php phn tch khi th trng cha bin ng sao cho c li v mt xc sut. => Vy, vi l thuyt nh vy... mc tiu trong thc t th ta nn hng ti nhng iu g????? 2.3. N uy t (Thun trend) Nhng, l nh trend gi ri th thun theo cn g m n? nu nhn bit sm c trend kia gi hay cha gi th coi nh gii quyt vn n gin ri. V cha gi th cn din tin tip ... suy ra c canh iu chnh xong l Buy/ Sell ... thun theo trend gc. 2.4. V t mt m tre d : vy nu thun trend th khng quan tm vng t m t : giao dch cng xu hng

thm ri, m quan tm vng thm th phi hng ti trend nghch ( vi phm nguyn tc sng cn: phi thun trend ) Gii thch thm: - Nu nhn din sm chnh xc trend gc kia gi hay cha th vn cn gii quyt (buy/ sell th no cho chun) cn li qu d dng. - Nu b qua giai on trn, ch thm t na v nhn thy giai on c s iu chnh, nu phn bit c l TREND NGHCH va mi nh (head of counter trend) hay ch l IU CHNH (Retracement) th vn cn gii quyt cng coi nh gii quyt xong.

- Phi chng, nu ta xc nh: trend ban u gi, hoc c hi li l trend nghch va mi nh... th ta s giao dch v nui n chim "vng thm"? v nu trend ban u cha gi, c hi li ch l mt s iu chnh th... ta nh b qua " vng thm o" (v th trng c v vng u m thc)? Kt u : d th no cng phi p dng quy tc sng cn " Giao dch thun trend" , vy l khng hng ti trend nghch sao, trong khi vng thm nm ? -> c cht mu thun v mun va "thun trend" va chim "vng thm". Trong khoa hc, khi 2 yu t xy ra nh vy th ngi ta thng p dng ti u l chn yu t u vo sao cho kt qu t mc " giao im" ca mt ci tng mt ci gim ny. Nhng trong trng hp ca chng ta y th khng cn ngh n iu ny v n khng phi nh vy. Bn th ngh trc xem... mc tiu ti u ca chung ta trong qu trnh xy dng tng bc ny phi hng ti ra sao? Hin nay trn Th trng chng khon cc chuyn vin phn tch dng rt nhiu cc loi biu khc nhau phn tch, trong c 3 loi biu c dng mt cch ph bin nht l: biu dng ng (Line chart), biu dng then chn (Bar chart), biu dng ng (Candlestick chart). Biu d (Li e art).

Dng biu ny t trc ti nay thng c s dng trn Th trng chng khon, v cng l loi biu c dng mt cch ph bin nht trong cc ngnh khoa hc khc dng m phng cc hin tng kinh t v x hiv n cng l loi biu c con ngi dng trong thi gian lu di nht. Nhng hin nay trn Th trng chng khon do khoa hock k thut pht trin, din bin ca Th trng chng khon ngy cng phc tp cho nn loi biu ny ngy cng t c s dng nht la trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i. Hin nay n ch yu c s dng trn cc Th trng chng khon mi i vo hot ng trong thi gian ngn, khp lnh theo phng php khp lnh nh k theo tng phin hoc nhiu ln trong mt phin nhng mc giao dch cha th t c nh Th trng chng khon dng phng php khp lnh lin tc.u im ca loi biu ny l d s dng, l do chnh l v n c s dng trn tt c cc Th trng chng khon trn khp th gii t trc ti nay. Hin nay loi biu ny t c s dng phn tch trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i v cc Th trng chng khon hin i ngy nay thng din bin kh phc tp, mc dao ng trong thi gian ngn vi lch kh cao, nu dng loi biu ny phn tch th thng mang li hiu qu thp trong phn tch. V d v dng biu dng ng (line chart):

 t i (tnh n ngy 18/01/2007 bsc.com.vn)

VNI dex

Hin nay trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i ang dng mt s loi biu trong Phn tch k thut mang li hiu qu cao l Bar chart v Candlestick chart. Biu d t e (Bar art)

V d v dng biu dng then chn (Bar chart):

C p iu Ge era E e tri Trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i trn th gii hin nay cc chuyn vin phn tch thng dng loi biu ny trong phn tch l ch yu l do chnh v tnh u vit ca n l s phn nh r nt s bin ng ca gi chng khon. Hai k t m dng biu ny s dng l:

Loi biu ny thng c p dng phn tch trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i khp lnh theo hnh thc khp lnh lin tc, dao ng ca gi chng khon trong mt phin giao dch l tng i ln. Biu d (Candlestick chart)

V d v dng biu dng ng (Candlestick chart):

y l dng biu ci tin ca biu dng then chn (Bar chart), n c ngi Nht Bn khm ph v p dng trn Th trng chng khon ca h u tin. Gi y n ang dn c ph bin hu ht trn cc Th trng chng khon hin i trn ton th gii. Dng biu ny phn nh r nt nht v s bin ng ca gi chng khon trn th trng chng khon khp lnh theo hnh thc khp lnh nh k.

1 Ch bo Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands l cng c kt hp gia ng trung bnh ng Moving Average v lch chun. Bollinger Bands l cng c phn tch k thut c nhiu tc dng v rt c gi tr cho nh u t. C 3 thnh phn c bn trong ch bo Bollinger Bands:

1. 2.

ng trung bnh (Moving Average): s dng mc nh 20 phin; SMA (20). Di trn (Upper Band): di trn thng c lch chun l 2, c tnh ton t d liu gi 20

phin. C v tr nm trn ng trung bnh SMA (20). 3. Di di (Lower Band): di di thng c lch chun l 2 v nm di ng trung bnh

SMA (20).

C 3 phng php chnh s dng Bollinger Bands: - Phm vi hot ng ca cc di. - Vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands. - Chin lc mua bn quyn chn (option).

Phm vi hot ng ca di Bollinger Bands

Gia di trn v di di ca Bollinger Bands l phm vi hot ng ca phn ln ng gi. Rt him khi ng gi di chuyn ra khi ng Bollinger Bands, ng gi c xu hng xoay quanh ng trung bnh SMA (20). Tn hiu mua: nh u t mua hoc mua ri khi ng gi rt thp hn di di ca Bollinger bands. Tn hiu bn: nh u t bn hoc bt u ngng mua ri khi ng gi nm ngoi di trn ca Bollinger Bands.

Nhng phm vi nn thn trng: Nu theo trng phi ch ng th nh u t nn mua hay bn khi ng gi ng vo cc di ca Bollinger Bands. Nh u t cng nn ch xem khi ng gi di chuyn nm ngoi trn hoc di ng Bollinger Bands v sau gi ng ca li nhy vo trong ng Bollinger Bands th y l c hi mua hoc bn khng. Cch mua bn trn l cch gim bt thua l khi ng gi thot ra khi ng Bollinger Bands trong mt khong thi gian ngn. Tuy nhin, cch ny cng b qua nhiu c hi sinh li. Mt thi cc khc hn vi cch trn l cch s dng vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands.

Vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands

V c bn th y l phng php tri ngc hn v c nhiu im u th hn vi phng php phm vi hot ng ca di Bollinger Bands. iu kin cn trc khi vt ngng th phi c nhiu phin cng c mc gi ngng. Nu gi ng ca nm ngoi ng Bollinger Bands th chng ta phi s dng cc ch bo khc v ng thi s dng ng h tr hay khng c ra quyt nh ph hp.

Tn hiu mua: ng gi phi nm cao hn di trn ca Bollinger Bands v trc c nhiu phin cng c mc gi ny. Cc ch bo khc cng xc nhn iu tng t trn. Tn hiu bn: ng gi nm thp hn di di ca Bollinger Bands v cc ch bo khc cng m ch iu ny. Ngoi ra Bollinger Bands cng c th c s dng o cng hng i ca xu hng gi:

- Xu hng gi tng mnh khi ng gi c khuynh hng lun nm na trn ca Bollinger Bands, tc l phm vi gia di trn v ng trung bnh SMA (20). Lc , SMA (20) l ng h tr ng cho xu hng gi.

Ngc li, xu hng gim gi mnh xy ra khi ng gi thp hn na di ca Bollinger

Bands; c gii hn bi ng trung bnh SMA(20) v di di ca Bollinger Bands. Lc ny SMA (20) s l ng khng c ng cho xu hng gi. S dng Bollinger Bands rt thch hp vi trng phi da vo dao ng gi kinh doanh. V th n rt hu ch cho cc nh u t mua bn option.

2. Ch bo Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR l ch bo kt hp gia gi v thi gian hnh thnh nhng tn hiu mua bn trn th trng. Parabolic SAR cng l cng c hiu qu xc nh vng t im dng l (stop loss). Tn hiu mua: Mua khi gi ng ca nm trn ng Parabolic SAR v ng thi ng Parabolic SAR phi cao hn ng gi. C ngha l khi ng Parabolic SAR thay i t gi tr cao chuyn sang gi tr thp th nh u t nn dng li; thc hin mua ri hay bn khng ch tn hiu o chiu xu hng mnh xy ra hoc c th mua u t di hn. Tn hiu bn: Tn hiu bn xut hin khi gi ng ca nm di Parabolic SAR v ng thi ng Parabolic SAR thp hn ng gi. Ngay ti thi im ny ng Parabolic SAR thay i t mc thp hn ng gi ln mc cao hn ng gi. Cc nh u t nn dng li, cng c th bn thot khi xu hng di hn hin hnh v ch s o chiu trong ngn hn.

t im dng l Hiu qu ln nht khi dng Parabolic SAR xc nh vng t im dng l l nhm bo v li nhun hoc gim thiu thua l trong vic kinh doanh chng khon.

Parabolic SAR l cng c xc nh vng t im dng l hiu qu, c din t theo 2 lp lun sau:

1.

t im dng l thp hn gi ca nh u t di hn mua vo hoc trn mc gi ca nh u t ngn hn chp nhn mua. S dng Parabolic SAR nh l mt cng c iu chnh im dng l, im dng l s t t tin ln theo xu hng di hn v thp hn xu hng ngn hn. Nhng hiu qu nht th nh u t nn cht li mc li nhun k vng ca mnh.

2.

Parabolic SAR hnh ng nh l khong dng v mt thi gian (thi im dng). Thi im dng c s dng ty vo tng nh u t. Nu s mong i ca nh u t khng xy ra th l tr ca nh u t bt u b bung lng mt cch t nhin, tc l k lut kinh doanh, mua-bn b vi phm. Khi , nh u t nn phi thot khi th trng. Tng t nh vy, Parabolic SAR kt hp vi thi gian lm cho ng gi hot ng theo s tnh ton ca nh u t. Nu ng gi khng di chuyn theo hng tnh ton trc th Parabolic SAR s l tn hiu xc nh thi im thot khi th trng.

3. Ch bo DMI v ADX
Directional Movement Index (DMI)
DMI l 1 phn ca ch bo ADX. DMI bao gm 2 ng DI+ v DI-, hiu mt cch n gin l DI+ cho tn hiu mua v DI- cho tn hiu bn.

Tn Tn

hiu hiu

mua: bn:

Khi Khi

DI+ ct v i ln DIct v i xung

pha pha

trn di

DIDI+

Lu : Khi s dng s giao ct ca DMI nhn bit tn hiu mua hoc bn th nhng tn hiu ny thng hay b sai lch. khc phc chng ta s dng ch bo ADX xc nhn li s giao ct ca DMI. Ch bo ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) l mt phn quan trng khng th thiu khi s dng ch bo DMI.

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX)

ADX l k thut ch bo th hin th trng ang trong trng thi c xu hng hay khng c xu hng. Khi ADX xc nhn c xu hng th k thut ch bo DMI s ch ra nhng tn hiu mua bn chc chn hn. Mt cch hiu no chng ta c th cho rng mc ch chnh ca ADX l xc nh r xu hng hin ti ca ng gi. Nu xc nh r c xu hng th trng s gip ch cho chng ta rt ln, v n s ch dn v gip cho nh u t s dng nhng k thut ch bo khc phn tch.

* Khi th trng ang c xu hng (Trending Market): nh u t c th s dng Moving Averages (MA), ng xu hng (trendline) v mt s cc ch bo tip tc xu hng khc. *Khi th trng ang khng c xu hng r rng (sideways market) hay ang bin ng trong mt phm vi gi no (trading range market): cc nh u t c th s dng cc ch bo nh l Stochastic, RSI, hoc Williams%R v cc bo rangebound khc nh l Bollinger Bands hoc Moving Average Envelope. ADX rt ph bin v n xc nh c trng thi hin ti ca th trng l c xu hng hay khng c xu hng. iu ny gip cho nh u t trnh xa nhng im yu ca cc ch bo cng nh nhng ci by (trap) ca th trng. * Moving Averages (MA): ng trung bnh MA v nhng bin th ca MA c s dng rt c hiu qu vi th trng c xu hng r rng. Tuy nhin trong giai on th trng ang c trng thi cng c xu hng; c ngha l gi lin tc tng gim an xen ln nhau th ng MA c khuynh hng cho ra nhiu tn hiu mua v bn s b sai lch. * Oscillators: l mt ch bo v cng hiu qu khi th trng khng c xu hng r rng. Mua khi Oscillator thp v bn khi n cao l khi nim kh y khi s dng Oscillator. Nhng khi th trng ang trong mt xu hng th Oscillator biu th t chnh xc hn; c ngha l thng xy ra nhng tn hiu bn khi th trng ang tng mnh (bull market) hoc cho nhng tn hiu mua khi th trng ang gim gi mnh (bear market).

* iu u tin v lun lun phi nh khi s dng ADX l ch hng i ca ng gi. Khi ADX dao ng tng hay gim khng c ngha l xc nh c hng chuyn ng tip theo ca ng gi. Mt xu hng tng gi mnh ng ngha vi ADX tng lin tc. Mt xu hng gim gi mnh ng ngha vi ADX tng lin tc.

Din gii ADX: Di 20: th trng khng c xu hng. Tng t di ln trn 20: bo hiu bt u mt xu hng mi. Lc ny bt u suy ngh n vic mua hoc bn trong xu hng ngn hn hin ti. Dao ng gia 20 40: Nu ADX tng theo hng t 20 ln 40; n hm xc nhn mnh xu hng mi hnh thnh trc v tip tc di chuyn theo hng bt u. iu ny c ngha l nh u t c th s dng lnh mua hoc bn khng (short-sell) tu theo hng i ca xu hng th trng. Trong giai on ny, nh u t phi hn ch s dng ch bo Oscillator v cc ch bo tip tc xu hng nh l MA. Trn 40: xu hng hin ti l rt mnh. Ct ln 50 theo hng tng: xu hng cc k mnh. Ct theo hng tng trn 70: V ch (power trend), iu ny rt him khi xy ra.

4. Heikin-Ashi K thut
Thc ra y khng phi l Indicator m chnh l candlestick c modify bng cch tnh

trung bnh cc mc gi O,C,H,L cn c gi l Average Price Bars. C cng thc tnh pha di. C nm tn hiu ch yu xc nh xu hng v c hi mua: Nhng nn rng khng c bng nn thp hn bo mt uptrend mnh m: Hy cho li nhun ca bn tng thm!

Nhng nn rng biu hin mt uptrend: Rt c th bn mun mua khng, v thot khi tnh trng bn khng. Mt nn nh vi bng nn trn v di hm 1 s thay i xu hng: nhng trader thch ri ro c th mua hay bn khu vc ny, trong khi nhng ngi khc s i s xc nhn trc khi mua hay bn. Nhng nn c ch bo mt xu hng gim: bn c th mun bn khng, v thot khi tnh trng mua khng. Nhng nn c m khng c bng nn trn xc nh mt xu hng gim mnh m: tip tc gi tnh trng bn cho n khi c s thay i trong khuynh hng.

Vi h thng ny, nhng tn hiu xc nh xu hng hay c hi tr nn d dng hn nhiu Cc xu hng khng b ngt bi nhng tn hiu sai nh thng xy ra, v d dng nhn ra hn. Hn na, nhng c hi mua trong cc giai on tch lu cng r rng. (consolidation = chui cc nn nh (rng v c), c th c bng nn trn v di).

Kt lun: K thut Heikin-Ashi v cng hu ch khin vic c biu nn d dng hn, xc

nh xu hng c d dng hn, v ch thong qua cng c th pht hin c c hi mua. Biu c xy dng theo cng mt cch nh biu nn bnh thng, ngoi tr sa i cc cng thc thanh chn. Khi c s dng hp l, k thut ny c th gip bn pht hin xu hng v cc thay i xu hng gip bn kim li nhun!

5. ng trung bnh (Moving Average)

Cng c ny c nhiu chuyn gia cho rng y l cng c c bn v in hnh trong vic nhn din xu hng. Cng c ny ny tnh gi trung bnh trong mt khong thi gian xc nh. V d nh ng trung bnh 10 ngy l tng gi cui ngy trong thi gian 10 ngy chia cho 10. NG TRUNG BNH C TC DNG G ngha ca ng trung bnh rt n gin. N gip nh u t a ra nhng d on v gi t vic so snh gia gi hin ti ca th trng vi gi trung bnh trong khong thi gian xc nh.

S thay i gia gi hin ti vi ng trung bnh xut hin cng l thi im m cc nh u t xem xt th trng v xu hng gi ang dn hnh thnh. V d, gi hin ti chy t vng pha di ng trung bnh vt ln pha trn ng trung bnh th c kh nng xu hng tng ang xy ra v ngc li.

Gc to thnh bi ng trung bnh v gi s th hin ca xu hng. Khi lch ca gc ln th xu hng mnh, ngc li nu gi bin ng khng ln hay xung (sideway) th thng gc lch s khng nhiu.

NG DNG CA NG TRUNG BNH d a tru s d s iao au a 2 tru .

V d y l ta ang s dng 2 ng trung bnh, mt ng trung bnh ngn hn v mt ng trung bnh di hn, c th hn l ng trung bnh 10 v ng trung bnh 20. Nh bit, ng trung bnh ngn hn s c phn ng vi bin ng th trng nhanh hn hn so vi ng di hn. Khi 2 ng ny giao nhau bo hin ang c s thay i xu hng. C th hn, nu ng trung bnh 10 vt ct ln trn ng trung bnh 20, bo hiu kh nng xu hng tng gi; v ngc li nu ng trung bnh 10 ct xung di ng trung bnh 20 cho thy kh nng xu hng gim gi. Tuy nhin cn kt hp vi yu t gc to thnh bi 2 ng trung bnh trn xc nh xu hng mnh hay yu.

6. Stochastis
Stochastis l cng c gip chng ta tm ra du hiu kt thc ca mt xu hng. Stochastis o mc mua qu nhiu (overbought) v bn qu nhiu (oversold) ca th trng. 2 ng ch dn ca Stochastics cng tng t nh 2 ng ca MACD, gm 1 ng phn ng vi th trng nhanh hn so vi ng cn li.

S dng Stochastics nh th no ? Nh chng ti gii thiu trn, Stochastics cho chng ta bit khu vc th trng c du hiu mua qu nhiu v bn qu nhiu theo mc t 0 n 100. Khi ng Stochastics vt trn 70

(vt trn ng ngang chm pha trn) c ngha th trng c hin tng mua qu nhiu. Khi ng Stochastics xung pha di 30 ( ng ngang chm xanh) c ngha th trng xy ra hin tng bn qu nhiu. V nguyn tc, chng ta BUY khi th trng bn qu nhiu v SELL khi th trng mua qu nhiu.

By gi hy xem biu pha trn, bn c th thy Stochastics c tn hiu mua qu nhiu (overbought) trong khong thi gian gn nht. Da trn thng tin ny, bn on th trng s di chuyn v u ?

Nu bn ni t gi s xung , bn ng. Th trng trong tnh trng c mua qu nhiu trong mt giaoi on, v do vy, s o chiu c th sp xy ra. Trn y l nhng kin thc c bn v ng Stochasics. Cc nh giao dch s dng Stochastics theo nhiu cch khc nhau, nhng mc ch chnh ca ng ch dn ny vn l a ra du hiu th trng mua qu nhiu hay bn qu nhiu. Qua qu trnh th nghim v luyn tp, bn s tm c cch s dng Stochastics thch hp nht vi cch giao dch ca bn.

7. RSI-Ch s sc mnh lin quan

Ch s sc mnh lin quan Relative Strength Index, vit tt l RSI, tng t nh Stochastics trong vic a ra du hiu th trng mua qu nhiu v bn qu nhiu. RSI cng c chia ra cc mc t 0-100. Thng thng, di mc 20 c xem l bn qu nhiu, trn 80 c xem l mua qu nhiu.

s d

RSI

RSI cng c s dng ging Stochastics. Nhn vo biu pha di, bn c th thy khi RSI ri xung di 20, n ch ra th trng ang c tnh trng bn qu nhiu. Sau khi rt xung di mc 20, t gi nhanh chng quay ngc tr li.

RSI l mt cng c ph bin v c s dng xc nh cc thng tin v xu hng th trng kh hiu qu. Nu bn ngh mt xu hng ang c hnh thnh, hy nhn qua RSI xem liu n ang trn hay di mc 50. Nu bn mun xc nh mt xu hng ln, hy nh RSI cn trn mc 50. Nu bn mun xc nh mt xu hng xung, hy nh RSI cn di mc 50.

Nhn vo hnh minh ha pha trn, bn c th thy mt xu hng gi ln ang hnh thnh. trnh b mc sai lm v nhng du hiu gi, bn cn ch cho n khi RSI ct ln trn mc 50 xc nhn chc chn xu hng. RSI vt trn 50 l du hiu xc nhn ng tin cy rng mt xu hng ln c hnh thnh.

8 . Cng c Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) l mt cng c phn tch k thut rt hu dng, h tr nh u t trong vic xc nh thi im mua vo v bn ra theo tnh chu k. Nh u t c th s dng cng c ny mt cch hiu qu thng qua 2 cch: tnh bc nhy thi gian tt nht hoc s dng km vi cc cng c phn tch k thut khc nh Moving Average, Candlestick Patterns. Commodity C a e I dex (CCI) mt p t k t ut t u m s dao , x y d i Do a d Lam ert v ii t iu qua quy s Commodities Channel Index: Tools for Trading Cy i a Tre ds a . K t k i ii t iu, a, k o ay ay p t ti t x y tr y u k dao p i . N ip u t i u t v o t i im p .

Tro s y, ta s t m iu ra quyt u t

x x

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y a

C k tro m s dao , CCI x y d d o m mua qu m v qu m o mi i ia i p iu v mt tru ay t so vi tru . C t t :

Tro , Typi a Pri e = (Gi ao Simp e Movi

t + Gi t p

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yt

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iu y vi a s k tro m s dao . Do , tuy p d 20 y y t i ia u t CCI, x mt y x t iu sai . Di y 4 x v 1-2 m t tr iu t y t i ia tt t a v o t y t i ia tt t:

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42

ta t t y u k ia 2 im ao t, t u t y 17/7 y iao d , em ia o 3 ta s mt y t i ia tt iu CCI u i a y: k tro

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CCI m tr

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Hi t p k t ia iu i v i v tip t i xu o i a .

9. Ch s xung lng (Momentum)

Ch s xung lng o tc thay i ca gi ng ca. N c s dng nhn din mc suy yu ca xu th v cc im o chiu. Ch s ny thng b nh gi thp do s n gin ca n.

s xu

Mi n v xung lng l s chnh lch v gi gia n v v cc n v trc trong mt s giai on nht nh. Thng th chng ta da vo gi ng ca, tuy nhin cng c mt s cng c v th cho php ta c nhng la chn khc. Xung lng c nh ngha bng t s gia gi hin ti vi gi trc N giai on. Momentum = Close(i)/Close(i-N)*100 Vi: Close(i) l gi cui ngy ca thanh hin thi Close(i-N) l gi cui ngy ca thanh trc N thi k. C s d :

ng xung lng i ln bo hiu xu th tng gi ang mnh dn v ngc li ng i xung bo hiu xu th gim gi ang yu dn. V vy, ch s xung lng hng ln, l tn hiu mua vo v khi hng xung th l tn hiu bn ra.

10. On Balance Volume (OBV)

Joseph E. Granville sinh ngy 20/08/1923, thng c gi l Joe Granville, l ngi chuyn trnh by v cc vn ti chnh v u t. ng c cng trong vic ph bin rng ri On Balance Volume, mt cng c phn tch k thut gip d on xu hng gi tng lai ca cc ti sn ti chnh. Granville c th c bit n nhiu nht qua cc d bo v hin tng th trng s gim mnh trong nhng nm 1970, 1980, v 1990.

On Balance Volume (OBV) l mt cng c phn tch k thut mang tnh ng lng. N cho bit khi lng giao dch vo/ra i vi mt c phiu. Khi gi c phiu trong ngy ng ca cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc, ton b khi lng giao dch trong ngy c coi l tng. Khi gi c phiu trong ngy ng ca thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc, ton b khi lng giao dch trong ngy c coi l gim. 1. Tnh ton OBV c nh ngha tnh ton nh sau: Gi i l giao dch ngy hm nay, i 1 l giao dch ca ngy hm trc. Nu gi ng ca phin ngy hm nay cao hn phin trc: OBVi = OBVi 1 + khi lng giao dch ngy i Nu gi ng ca ngy hm nay thp hn ngy hm trc: OBVi = OBVi 1 - khi lng giao dch ngy i Nu gi ng ca ngy hm nay bng vi hm trc: OBVi = OBVi 1 Phng php phn tch bng OBV s dng phng hng ca OBV trn th ch khng da vo gi tr c th ca OBV, ngha l gi tr ca OBV khng quan trng. V vy c th quy c OBV ca thi im i = 0 hoc i = -1 s dng lm gc th c gi tr OBV = 0 2. Cch s dng: ng OBV nm trong xu hng tng khi mi nh mi u cao hn nh trc v mi y mi cng u cao hn y trc ca n. iu ngc li c p dng cho xu hng xung. Mt khc, ng OBV khi i ngang v khng to c nh/y mi th c cho l ang nm trong xu hng cha xc nh. Mt khi xu hng c xc nh, n s c duy tr mt khong thi gian trc khi b ph v. C hai kh nng khin cho xu hng ca ng OBV b ph v: Th nht l khi xu hng tng chuyn thnh xu hng gim v ngc li. Th hai l khi xu hng chuyn thnh xu hng cha xc nh v gi nguyn trong vng hn 3 ngy. Do , gi s khi ng OBV chuyn t xu hng tng sang xu hng cha xc nh v ch gi trong 2 ngy trc khi chuyn li xu hng tng, chng ta c th ni ng OBV vn nm trong xu hng tng.

Khi ng OBV chuyn sang xu hng tng/gim, hin tng breakout (gi tng/gim mnh) s xy ra. Do breakout ca ng OBV thng mnh hn ng gi nn nh u t c th mua vo khi breakout ln xy ra v ngc li. Nh u t nn duy tr trng thi (mua/bn) ca mnh n khi xu hng mi c xc lp. Phng php phn tch OBV c s dng ch yu cho cc nh u t ngn hn. Theo Granville, nh u t phi hnh ng nhanh v dt khot nu h mun thu c li nhun t phn tch cng c OBV.

Nhp mn FOREX-PHN III-PHN TCH K THUT

Tuesday, March 22, 2011 | beginner

( Mi gii FOREX)-Sau khi ci t Flatform MT4 v to ti khon giao dch o ( Demo)

y l giao din Flatform Mt4,khu vc qun l qun l ti khon v cc cng c tr Phn tch K thut c b tr nh sau: 1/ Bng t gi: Click chut phi vo bng t gi v chn "Show All" s hin th tt c cc cp FOREX v GOLD ( XAUSD,XAUEUR,..) 2/ Indicator: Khu vc thm bt cc cng c h tr Phn tch K Thut. 3/ Qun l hot ng giao dch: Ti y,Trader c th theo di cc lnh giao dch ang thc thi,ng giao dch,xem kt qu giao dch,...

PHN I: PHN TCH K THUT L G ?

Phn tch k thut chng qua l thao tc quan st bin ng ca gi trong qu kh d bo ng thi tip theo ca th trng. C th hiu n gin,cc Trader cn nhn nh xu hng ch o ca th trng lt theo sng [ Xu hng tng th u tin BUy v nGc li]

PHN II: XC NH XU HNG

Lun nh rng "Trend is your best Friend", i ngc li xu hng khng khc g li ngc dng thc d. Hu ht cc ch Newbie ( trong c ti) mi vo ngh v sm bi knockout do nui lnh tri chiu. Hi nm 2009, xu hng th trng Vng tng bc ph t mc 95x ln n hn 1000 USD/ounce. Nhiu c vn gi lp trng khi tnh hnh suy thoi,khng hong ton cu c gii quyt trit th Vng s tr v gi tr thc ( Quanh qun mc 500 USD/ounce )

Th y,bo ton vn l qui tc hng u i vi cc Trader chuyn nghip. Khng ai c th d on chnh xc 100% din bin ca th trng trong tng lai. Chng ta ch tha nhn trn xc sut. y l RanH gii gia Trading- Betting Khi nh bc,v d : +Tr 3 co-theo cch gi min Nam >>>Bi da. Khi c 10 "con bc" th xc sut bn "ht" trn gi ch c 10%. + Ci ( n thua vi nh ci) th xc sut thng ti a ch bng 50% ....

Khi b tin vo cc tr en nh trn th bn ang ph mc hoan ton cho s may mn.

i vi lnh vc giao dch-Trading th khc,Cc Trader chuyn nghip khng ph thuc vo s hn xui may ri. Mt Winner l ngi c th d on chnh xc hn 50% din bin th trng. Cch duy nht lm c iu l xy dng nguyn tc giao dch thch hp vi bn thn: Mt h thng nhn nh th trng xc nh c hi giao dch theo ti cn hi t 2 yu t: +Kin nh: Trm trn nh mt,u c chung mt hay vi nguyn nhn. Trnh vic thm qu nhiu cc Indicator vo mt biu dn n ri tr. + Nht qun: Trc khi ln "sn" TRade tin tht,nn dnh t nht 3 thng TrAde nghim tc trn ti khon o (Demo) Mc tiu l xy dng nguyn tc giao dch vi xc sut trn 70% th c th tung honh ngAng dC ri ^^

Phng php xc nh xu hng ca ti da trn cc dy Moving Avarage v RSI momentum. RSI momentum l khi nim tng i phc tp nn ti s post bi hng dn chi tit v ti ny [ Cc bn c th tham kho b mt ca cng c ny ti y: [Momentum RSI] HNG DN S DNG DY MOVING AVARAGE xc nhn xu hng:

"ng MA l ng v theo gi c m khng c giao ng hng ngy. Li ch u tin ca n l gip bn nhn nh c xu hng (trendline) trong qu kh ca biu . Nhng nu chu kh tm hiu v phn tch MA r rng th n s cho bn rt nhiu thng tin qu gi, gip bn c on c khi no mua, ch v bn c phiu. Bn cn phi nhn bit nhng phng php tnh ton MA s dng n mt cch hiu qu. n gin nht l cch tnh ng trung bnh n gin (Arithmetic Moving Average hay Simple Moving Average). Cch tnh ton kiu ny l ly tng s gi c ca c phn trong mt giai on thi gian ri chia u ra tng ngy theo cng thc sau :

p = price = gi c, thng l gi cui ngy ; fixing price, nhng ngi ta cng c th tnh gi cao nht (+high) , thp nht (+low), hay lc m mn (open) ca mt ngy. n= period = mt giai on mua bn, thng thng l tng ngy V ng trung bnh ny thay i d liu theo tng phin giao dch, b gi ngy u tin, thm vo ngy cui cng nn ngi ta cn gi l ng trung bnh bin i hay l ng trung bnh lu ng (Moving Average). Cch s dng MA: on trch di y hng dn cch xc nh xu hng vi dy MA (p dng cho tt c cc sn phm giao dch. Ring th trng FOREX,ti s dng MA 200 v MA 50 trn biu 1H vn dng cc l thuyt: Cng dng ti u ca MA l khng ghi li s giao ng rng ca hng ngy m to ra mt ng gn nh l thng bn nhn nh xu hng ng i gi c trong qu kh ngay khi bn xem biu . Nu mun khai thc MA mua bn chng khon th chng ta phi chp nhn gi thuyt khng phi lc no cng ng rng: MA l mc gi thc ca cng ty v n l ng trung bnh ca nhng khong cao v thp. Ngi ta dng MA 200 cho cng vic mua bn di hn, MA 50 bit xu hng mua bn mt thi gian tng i. Cn MA 5, MA 13 th u tin cho

ngi no mun mua bn trong thi gian rt ngn, kiu swing hay day trading. Theo quy lut thng thng, khi m gi c cao hn ng MA th bn nn mua vo v MA cho ta du hiu c phiu ang tng tng hn trung bnh, phe u t tin tng vo c phn ny v n ang ln. ng MA c th xem l ng Support.

Bn v trn y cho bn thy 5 trng hp m bn nn mua vo v nu bn mua ri th nn tip tc ch cho c phn ln tip tc v c phn thay i xu hng, c nhiu c hi i ln hn l i xung: 1) Sau khi ng MA (ng chm en) i xung mt thi gian, n lch ngang m ng gi c (ng en m) xuyn ln ng MA. C phn i ngc xu hng, ln gi sau mt thi gian rt gi. 2) ng gi c xuyn qua ng MA khi c hai u c xu hng i ln. C phn tng tc , ln gi nhiu hn bnh thng. 3) Khi ng gi c ri xung, chm nhng khng xuyn qua ng MA. C phn b gim tc , nhng cn nh, hu nh l khng ng k. 4) Khi ng gi c xuyn qua ng MA, nhng ng MA vn cn xu hng i ln r rt . C phn gim tc nhng nhn chung, n vn cn xu hng i ln. 5) Khi ng gi c ri qu xa ng MA. C phn b bn qu , tr nn khan him v ngi mun bn tr thnh nhng ngi mun mua, c th o ngc tnh th, leo ln li n ng MA. Nhng trng hp ny kh nguy him v trong kinh doanh chng khon c cu: Khng nn chp mt con dao khi n ang rt. D nhng ngi ng dng k thut cui cng ny c li nhun nhiu hn nhng cch khc, nhng chng ti khuyn nhng ai mi tp s mua bn chng khon ng dng k thut th nm ny lao vo mt phi v. Bn phi kt hp nhiu loi phn

tch k thut khc, thng tin v kinh nghim bn thn mi c hy vng nm nhiu phn thng. Ngc li, khi gi c rt xung thp hn ng MA th chng ta nn bn ra ht, bn mt phn hoc dng hnh thc mua trc bn sau (short). Lc ny ng MA cho ta du hiu rng c phiu ang xung, phi u t mt tin tng v c nguy c cn xung thm na. Mc gi ang rt hn mc trung bnh m khng bit n rt n u. ng MA c th xem nh l ng Resistance. Bn di y cho bn 5 du hiu m bn nn bn ra hoc bn khng v c phn ht cn xu hng i ln m bt u rt gi.

1) Sau mt thi gian i ln, ng MA lch ngang. ng gi c li xuyn xung ng MA. Biu cho ta thy gi c b chng li v ang rt xung. 2) Khi ng MA i xung m ng gi vn xuyn qua ng MA. y l tnh trng c phiu rt gi rt l. 3) Khi ng gi c chm nhng khng xuyn qua c ng MA., c phiu chm ng resistance m khng vt qua c. 4) Khi ng gi c xuyn qua ng MA nhng ng MA vn cn xu hng i xung. 5) Nu gi c phn ln qu xa ng MA th ngi ta khuyn bn nn bn v c phn c th t iu chnh lm rt gi c phn, bn s mt c hi bn n khi n mc cao nht. Nhng theo chng ti ngh, bn khng nn bn m nn t lnh stop loss gn st vi gi ang nim yt. Nu c phn t iu chnh th c phn ca bn vn c bn i, bn c th mt cht nh li nhun nhng nu n ln tip th n vn cn c hi sinh si ny n cho bn nhiu tin hn. Cn mt cch khc na l bn mt phn c phiu, ly tin gc ra v s c phiu cn li lm phn li.