TI

Tm hiu nguyn nhn v din bin

ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin
t Chu nm 1997

Gio vin hng dn

: Trn B Tr

Sinh vin thc hin

Chuyn nhm

Tm hiu cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu nm 1997

PHN M U
1. Mc tiu nghin cu
1.1 Mc tiu chung
Tm hiu nguyn nhn v din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t
Chu nm 1997.
1.2 Mc tiu c th
-

Ngi n v din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu nm

1997.
-

Tnh hnh kinh t ca mt s quc gia Chu trong cuc khng hong..

nh hng ca cuc khng hong n mt s lnh vc kinh t ca Vit Nam.

Bi hc cho Vit Nam t cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu .

2. Phm vi nghin cu
Chuyn ch gii thiu nguyn nhn, din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh
tin t Thi Lan v mt s nc chu nm 1997 v nhng bi hc kinh nghim i
vi Vit Nam.

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PHN NI DUNG
CHNG 1
TNH HNH TI CHNH TIN T CA MT S QUC GIA
CHU TRONG CUC KHNG HONG NM 1997
1. 1 Hnh nh ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t 19971999 mt s nc
Chu
Cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t chu n ra nm 1997 trc ht xut pht
t Thi Lan. Ngy 2.7.1997, Ngn hng trung ng Thi Lan tuyn b th ni ng
Baht, chm dt mt thi k di duy tr t gi hi oi gn nh c nh so vi ng
USD. T gi hi oi Baht/USD: nm 1991 l 25,28, nm 1992: 25,19, nm 1996:
25,61 (Bng 2.1).
Ngay khi ng Baht b tuyn b th ni, n mt gi 20%. Thng 1.1998 t gi
hi oi t mc 53 Baht/USD.
Ngy 11.7.1997, Philippines tuyn b th ni ng Peso.
Ngy 11.8.1997, Malaysia tuyn b khng can thip vo th trng hi oi
(thc cht l th ni ng Ringgit).
Ngy 14.8.1997, Indonesia tuyn b th ni ng Rupiah.
Nm 1996, t gi bnh qun ng Won ca Hn Quc l 884,2 Won/USD th:
ngy 30.9.1997 l 914,8 Won/USD, ngy 14.12.1997 ng Won c th ni.
C th ni s mt gi nhanh vi quy m cha tng c ca nhng ng tin Thi
Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia, Indonesia v Hn Quc l biu hin d nhn thy ca s
bng n khng hong kinh t-ti chnh cc nc ny.
Bng 1.1 T gi hi oi bnh qun nm 1996 v 1997
Nc/ T gi bnh qun
1996
1997
Thi Lan
25,61
47,25
Phillippines
26,29
39,50
Malaysia
2,52
3,88
Indonesia
2,308
5,400
Hn Quc
844,20
695,8
Ngun: ASEAN University Network(2000), Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia and
Korea, Tradition and Modernity Publisher, Seoul, Korea.
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Biu hin bn ngoi th hai ca tnh trng khng hong ti chnh tin t l s
thua l v ph sn vi tc v quy m tht thng ca h thng ngn hng, ti chnh
quc gia, (Bng 1.2).
Bng 1.2 Tnh trng thua l v ph sn ca h thng ngn hng, ti chnh
Nc

Nm
ti
chnh
1.4.1996
n
31.3.1999

Thi Lan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hn Quc

Nm ti chnh t 1.4.1997 n 31.3.1998

S ngn S ngn S ngn S ngn Tng s
b ngn hng
hng
b hng
b hng
b hng
bn cho c vn
nh ch quc hu st nhp
cng
ty
hot ng ha/
nc
Chnh ph
ngoi
gim st
108
56
4 64 (59%)
41
41 (68%)
228
16
56
11
83 (36%)
56
16
18 (32%)
Ngun: Fusion Confusion, the Economist, 4.4.1998, P.87.

Biu hin bn ngoi th ba ca tnh trng khng hong kinh t-ti chnh l s
thua l v ph sn vi quy m v tc bt thng ca doanh nghip (Bng 1.3).

Bng 1.3 Tnh trng thua l v ph sn ca cc doanh nghip

Nc
Thi Lan

Thi gian
S doanh nghip ph sn
Thng 1.1998 n 3.961 doanh nghip ngng hot ng, trong
5.1998
c 592 ph sn
doanh
nghip
ph
sn
Malaysia
Nm
1996 489
Nm 1997
6.583 doanh nghip ph sn (bng 13 ln so
vi 1996)
Indonesia
Nm 1998
Khong 80% doanh nghip ngng hot
ng
Hn Quc
Nm
1997 14.000
doanh
nghip
ph
sn
Nm 1998
53.000 doanh nghip ph sn (gp 3,8 ln
nm 1997)
Ngun: nh Thm(1998). Khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc, nguyn nhn v
gii pht, NXB thng tin KHXH, H Ni v Nguyn Thin Nhn (2002). Khng
hong kinh t- ti chnh chu 1997-1999, NXB i hc Quc gia TP.HCM.
S ph sn ca hng lot ngn hng, doanh nghip s dn n hai hu qu trc
tip l s ngi tht nghip tng mnh, v tng trng kinh t b gim st,(Bng 1.4).

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Bng 1.4 Tng trng kinh t v tht nghip khi khng hong kinh t - ti chnh
Tng trng kinh t (%)
T l tht nghip (%)
1996
1997
1998
1996
1997
1998
Thi Lan
6,7
-0,4
-8,3
Malaysia
8,2
7,0
2,0
Indonesia
7,8
4,6
-13,7
Philippines
5,8
5,2
-0,5
9,5
10,4
3,3
Hn Quc
7,1
5,5
-5,8
2,3
2,5
8,0
Ngun: ASEAN University Network(2000), Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia and
Korea, Tradition and Modernity Publisher, Seoul, Korea, tr 21- 25 v Nguyn Thin
Nhn (2002). Khng hong kinh t- ti chnh chu 1997-1999, NXB i hc
Quc gia TP.HCM.
Nm 1996, tng thu nhp quc gia ca Hn Quc l 528 t USD, nm 1998 gim
ch cn 317 t USD, gim 39%, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi gim t 11.380 USD cn
6.823 USD, [6, tr61].
V mt kinh t, khng hong 1997-1999 4 nc Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia
v Hn Quc c c im ging nhau v xu hng din bin ca nm tham s:
1. T gi hi oi tng mnh, ngoi tm kim sot
2. Ph sn hng lot cc ngn hng, cng ti chnh
3. Ph sn hng lot ca cc doanh nghip
4. Tht nghip tng mnh
5. Tng trng kinh t tng mnh

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1.2 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh t ti chnh
S 1.1 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong
kinh t - ti chnh

Ngun: Tp ch Pht trin kinh t thng 12 nm 2002

Qua ta thy, khng hong ch c th n ra khi bn trong nn kinh t tch
ly bn nguy c khng hong l:
-

S km hiu qu ca cc doanh nghip

S km hiu qu ca cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh

S ln gi ca ng ni t

Nguy c quc gia mt kh nng thanh ton

V khi bn ngoi c mt tc ng quyt nh l s rt vn ti chnh ca cc nh

u t nc ngoi.
Khi ng ni t b ln gi do quc gia duy tr t gi hi oi gn nh c nh qu
lu, yu km v xut khu, gi li sut cho vay trong nc cao hn li sut cc ng
tin mnh nc ngoi, th trc sau nguy c mt kh nng thanh ton s ngy cng

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ln, kh nng gi t gi hi oi c nh s ngy cng suy yu v vic phi th ni ng

tin ni a-tc tng t gi hi oi ch l vn thi gian.
Khi mt s nh u t nc ngoi tin on chnh ph nc s ti sp ht d tr
ngoi t duy tr t gi hi oi c nh th h s bn ti sn h u t, i ly
ngoi t mang ra nc ngoi. Lc u, chnh ph cc nc thng bn d tr ngoi t
duy tr t gi c, song n mt lc no , khng cn kh nng bn na th s th ni
t gi hi oi. Lc ny cc nh u t nc ngoi cha bn ti sn (s phiu, tri
phiu, tn phiu) th s tm cch bn tht nhan v i sang ngoi t ti thiu ha thit
hi cho mnh. p lc ny cng lm cho t gi hi oi tng vt. l vng xoy khng
hong th 1, tc ng rt nhanh ti t gi hi oi (S 1.1).
V vic ch vi ngn hng ph sn, s gy tm trng lo u cho ngi dn gi tin
tit kim cc ngn hng khc, h s li chy i rt tin tit kim khi ngn hng, dn
n vic c cc ngn hng lm n hiu qu cng lm vo mt kh nng chi tr, ph sn.
l vng xoy khng hong th 3, tc ng nhanh (S 1.1).
Khi t gi hi oi tng mnh d n ngoi t ca cc doanh nghip tnh bng
tin ni t s tng vt, cng vi vic cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh ph sn s khng
c kh nng cung ng tn dng cho cc doanh nghip hot ng na. Cc doanh nghip
no hot ng vn km hiu qu, th gi y s khng c vn kinh doanh,
cng sm b y ti thua l v ph sn. Khi doanh nghip thua l th cc ngn hng,
cng ty ti chnh khng i c n, s cng ph sn nhanh hn. l vng xoy
khng hong th 4, tc ng chm hn cc vng xoy khng hong trc (S 1.1).
Khi mt nc b khng hong dn ti hu qu l t gi hi oi ca nc tng
mnh, th tnh cnh tranh ca hng xut khu nc tng, lm cho xut khu ca cc
nc c t gi n nh b nh hng xu. iu ny lm cho cn cn thng mi ca
nc ny b thm ht, kh nng thanh ton quc gia ngy cng suy yu. y l p lc
buc cc nc ny phi ph gi ng ni t y mnh xut khu, phng nga kh
nng mt thanh ton (S 1.1). C th gi y l tc ng dy truyn ca vic ph gi
mt nc ti cc nc khc (S 1.1).
Tm li, t m hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng
hong kinh t - ti chnh, chng ta nhn thy khng hong kinh t ti chnh kiu chu
1997-1999 n ra vi s kin bn trong l s tch ly 4 nguy c khng hong, vi

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Tm hiu cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu nm 1997

s xut hin v tc ng ln nhau ca 4 vng xoy khng hong) v di tc ng dy

chuyn ca ph gi ni t (S 1.1).
Trnh t xut hin ca cc vng xoy khng hong mi nc, tin trnh khng
hong mi nc c khc nhau, ty theo hon cnh c th (mc tch ly cc nguy
c khng hong) v chnh sch i ph ca mi nc.

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CHNG 2

TM TT DIN BIN CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH TIN T MT

S NC CHU
2.1. Thi Lan Ngi n ca cuc khng hong.
2.1.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Thi Lan trc khng hong
Nhng nm trc nm khng hong kinh t-ti chnh nn kinh t ca Thi Lan
pht trin rt tch cc: GDP tng cao lin tc, xut khu pht trin, lm pht thp, ngn
sch chnh ph lun d tha v cn cn thanh ton c th kim sot c, u t tng
vt v tnh trng tht nghip hu nh khng c.
Cc doanh nghip hot ng ngy cng km hiu qu
Tng trng GDP mc cao, ko di nhiu thp k, cng vi li sut tit kim
trong nc cao (bnh qun 16,3% nm, trong khi M l 7,6), v t gi hi oi gn
nh c nh to nn mt mi trng kinh doanh rt hp dn cc nh u t nc
ngoi, c bit u t ti chnh, cho vay ngn hn v tn dng thng mi. Nh vy,
cc doanh nghip trong nc nu vay vn trc tip t cc ngn hng, cng ty nc
ngoi nh M th ch chu li sut bng li sut cho vay trong nc. Nu cc doanh
nghip tn dng kh nng s dng vn bn ngoi khng quan tm n hiu qu s
dng vn vay th hiu qu kinh t s gim, d tng sn lng c th tng.
Mt im c bit Thi Lan l trong giai on 1991-1996, u t trc tip ca
nc ngoi vo Thi Lan chim t trng rt nh so vi u t ti chnh gin tip v s
dng vn vay ngn hn nc ngoi. Tng u t trc tip thwoif k ny l 11,701 t
USD, tng u t trc tip ca Thi Lan ra nc ngoi l 2,857 t USD, do vy tng
u t trc tip thun l 8,822 t USD. Trong khi , tng u t ti chnh thun (c
phiu, tri phiu) l 16,4 t USD, v tng vay ngn hn thun l 60,04 t USD. Nh
vy, trong tng s vn nc ngoi thun u t vo Thi Lan thi k 1991-1996 l
85,293 t USD th u t trc tip ch chim 10,36% (8,844 t USD), u t gin tip
19,23% (16,404 t USD) v tn dng, vay ngn hn ti 70,4% (60,045 t USD).
Vic s dng n gn 90% ngun vn nc ngoi dng u t ti chnh v tn
dng ngn hn s to p lc ti chnh rt ln ln cc cng ty, v phi tr n thng
xuyn v bng ngoi t (vi tn dng ngn hn). Hu qu, l nu doanh nghip kinh
doanh khng tt th hiu qu n xut kinh doanh ca cc cng ty s thp .
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Th nhng , t sut thu hi hay t sut li nhun trn ti sn (ROA) bnh qun ca
cc doanh nghip gim t 8%/nm vo nm 1991 xung ch cn 1%/nm nm vo
1996 . Trong mt nn kinh t m li xut cho vay l 16,3%/nm cn hiu qu kinh
doanh ca doanh nghip l 1%/nm th r rng l ang tch ly nguy c khng hong.
Ngn hng hot ng ngy cng km hiu qu
Trc nhu cu vn ca cc doanh nghip v do c phn bung lng vai tr gim
st hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip i vay nn cc ngn hng v cng ty ti
chnh ca Thi Lan rt tch cc vay n nc ngoi ti tr cho doanh nghip trong
nc .
Tng n nc ngoi so vi tng ti sn nc ngoi m h thng ngn hng c tng t
171% (1991) ln 694% (1996). ng thi ROA ca h thng ngn hng Thi Lan ch
cn 0,99%/nm. R rng Thi Lan ang tch ly nguy c khng hong ph sn Ngn
hng.

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Bng 2.1. S liu kinh t Thi Lan (din tch 514.000 km2, dn s 61 triu
ngi)
Nm
Tng trng (%)
GDP (a)
Baht/USD

1991
7,0

1992
7,1

1993
8,2

1994
8,6

1995
8,7

1996
6,7

1997
-0,4

25,28

25,32

25,54 25,09

25,19

25,61

47,25

1998 1999
-8,3 1

41,3 37,11
7
5,6
8,1 5,02
56,7 52,9
-55,3 -40,6

Lm pht (%)
5,7
4,1
4,6
5,1
5,8
4,8
Xut khu (t USD) 28,23
32,1
36,4 44,47
55,4
54,4
Nhp khu (t -34,22 -36,26 -40,09 -48,2
-63,4
-63,9
USD)
Cn cn thng
-5,9 -4,16
-4,3
-3,7
-7,7
-9,5
1,5
mi (t USD)
Cn cn ti khon -7,59
-6,3 -6,36 -8,08 -13,55 -14,69 -3,02
vng lai (t USD)
Cn cn ti khon 11,26
9,47
10,5 12,17
21,9
19,5 -15,8
vn (t USD
u t trc tip 1,847 1,966 1,571 0,873 1,182
1,405 3,344
thun (t USD)
u t ti chnh 9,994 6,584 3,474 8,812 16,644 14,537 -23,51
thun (c phiu
tri phiu, t USD)
u t khc thun -0,081 0,924 5,455 2,481 4,181
3,544 4,361
(t USD)
N nc ngoi (ti 35,99 39,61 45,84 60,99
65,0
89,0
97,0
USD)
N ngn hn (ti
43,6
45,7
45,6
USD)
D tr ngoi t (t
18,4
21,2
25,4 30,3
37,0
38,7
27,0
USD)
u t c nh tnh
38,0
39,5
39,9 40,1
42,8
39,8
39,1
bng % GDP (b)
ICOR (b/a)
5,4
5,56
4,86 4,92
5,94
Ngun : Tp ch Pht trin kinh t thng 12 nm 2002

12,3 -36,26
14,3 7,2
-9,5 85,29
8,844
60,04

16,4

29,5
40
5,2

Quc gia tin n b vc mt kh nng thanh ton

Trong sut cc nm 1991-1996 , cn cn thng mi ca Thi Lan lun b thm
ht, tng cng l 35,26 t USD. Thm ht ti khon vng lai nm 1996 ti 14,7 t USD.
Mt l do ca tnh trng ny l do xut khu b km hm, nhp khu c khuyn khch
do t gi hi oi danh ngha gn nh c nh (25baht/USD), lm pht trong nc cao
hn so vi M ( 5% so vi 3%), ng baht b nh gi cao hn so vi ng USD.
b p thm ht thng mi v c vn u t bnh qun 40%GDP mi nm, con

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ng khng trnh khi l vay tin nc ngoi (t cc ngn hng, cc doanh nghip,
nh u t ti chnh, chnh ph cc nc). V vy n nc ngoi ca Thi Lan khng
ngng tng, t 35,99 t USD nm 1991 ln 89 t USD nm 1996, gp 2,47 ln trong
vng 5 nm, v bng 54% GDP N ngn hn chim: 67% tng n nc ngoi (1995),
51% tng n nc ngoi (1996). N ngn hn nm 1995 v 1996 gp gn 1,18 ln d
tr ngoi t ca quc gia. Tc l Thi Lan thc t mt kh nng thanh ton n nc
ngoi t nm 1995. Tc l thc t TL mt kh nng thanh ton n nc ngoi t
nm 1995. Nu cc nh u t Thi Lan cng phi th ni ng ni a Baht, th chnh
h s bn c phiu, tri phiu, i n ngn hn, i t tin Baht ra USD, lm tng cu
ngoi t t ngt. Kt qu l t gi hi oi s tng, d tr ngoi t cn kit, nguy c
mt kh nng thanh ton ca quc gia s ngy cng cao. n thng 6.1997 n nc
ngoi ca Thi Lan bng 1,5 ln d tr ngoi t ca Thi Lan.
Tm li, cui 1996 u 1997, Thi Lan tch ly c 4 nguy c khng hong mc
cao .
2.1.2 Din bin khng hong kinh t-ti chnh Thi Lan
u nm 1997 n thng 3 nm 1997: ngi dn v cc nh u t bt u rt
vn ra khi cc ngn hng v cc cng ty ti chnh, chnh ph phi ng ca th trng
chng khong ngy 3.3.1997. Chnh ph yu cu cc t chc ti chnh phi tng cng
d tr tin mt, thng bo 10 cng ty ti chnh trng thi khng bnh thng (Unico
housing Co.Ltd ; Thai-Fuji; Royal International; Sri Dhana; Eastern Finance;
County.).
Ngy 4 v 5/3/1997: hn 21,4 t Baht (820tr USD) c rt khi cc ngn
hng v cng ty ti chnh.
9/4/1997: t gi hi oi tng ln mc 26,08baht/USD
25/6/1997: tng s cng ty ti chnh b ng ca l 58/91 cty (64%) trn ton
quc
gi t gi hi oi, chnh ph phi bn ngoi t lm d tr ngoi t gim mnh t
38,78 t USD thng 6.1996 cn 37.7 t USD vo thng 12.1996 v cn 31.4 t USD vo
30.6.1997.
Nu mc gim st d tr quc gia ca qu 2 nm 1997 ko di thm khong
2-3 qu na th lc d tr ngoi t quc gia ch cn khong 10 t USD , bng 1/3
mc d tr ngoi t nm 1996 , v chnh ph s buc phi th ni t gi hi oi v
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HON TON khng cn kh nng bn ngoi t duy tr t gi hi oi. C l thy

trc nguy c ny , ngy 2.7.1997 chnh ph Thi Lan tuyn b th ni ng Baht, kt
qu l 6.1997: t gi l 25 Baht/USD. n thng 1.1998: t gi l 53Baht/USD (tng
112% trong 6 thng).
2.2 Indonesia Hiu ng lan truyn ca cuc khng hong
Cuc khng hong lan san Indonesia khi cc nh xut nhp khu khng th thu
hi c lng vn u t t Thi Lan khin t nc khng hong nghim trng, cng
nh Thi Lan, Indonesia khi u khng hong cng t vic mt gi ca ng Rupiah,
tc ca n chng khc no 1 chic xe cng thc 1, c thi im n mt gi trn
625% (t gi ng Rupiah/USA tng ng vo cc ngy 2.7.1997; 31.12.1997 v
15.7.1998 l 2430, 4375, 15200). Trong khi n nc ngoi ca Indonesia ln ti
133,67 t USD ( trong vay ngn hn 29,2 t USD) khin Indonesia lm vo tnh
trng khng hong trm trng, t l tht nghip tng 4 ln v 16 ngn hng v trn 80%
daonh nghip trn t nc b ph sn. Mc lm pht tnh n thng 5.1998 l 49,7% 1
thng sau l 56,7%. Khin hng lot Nh u t (ch yu ngi Hoa) rt vn gi sang
Singapore. Cuc khng hong chnh thc bt u ti Indonesia.
Sau cuc khng hong bt u lan rng hn vi cc nc ng Nam khc
nh Malaixia, philipin v c Singapore cng b nh hng khin cc ng ni t ti cc
quc gia ny gim nhanh chng nh ng Ps (Philipin), Riggit (Malaixia) gim
khong 25%. V ng la Singapore cng gim mc 6% so vi trc thi k khng
hong.
2.3 Hn Quc S sp ca cc tp on kinh t (CHAEBOL)
Vo thng 10.1997 cuc khng hong bt u ti Hn Quc quc gia c nn kinh
t pht trin vt bc v ng th 11 th gii. Lnh vc ti chnh ngn hng ca Hn
Quc b nh hng trm trng nht. Trong nhng nm 1995 tc d tng trng kinh t
Hn Quc l 8.9%/nm mt con s k diu nhng n nm 1998 mc tng trng
mc -0.8% .
Di s gip sc ca chnh ph Hn Quc cc chaebol c hng rt nhiu u
i, nhiu khong vay c chnh ph ti tr rt ln mc vay ca chaebol dao ng t
200 n 1000% s vn t c ca h kinh doanh. Khin nn kinh t ph thuc rt
nhiu vo cc tp on ny, vi vic nh hng gi ng Won gim nghim trng trong
cui nm 1996 gim 36.6% v mc 19.5% vo thng 10.1997 cc tp on ny khng
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th tiu th mt lng ln hng ha nh in t, my mc. Khin h khng c kh

nng tr n, h vay ngn hng nhm cu vn nhng vi mc li sut cao 18%/nm
nhng cc ngn hng vn khng chp nhn. Dn n tnh trng hng lot cc chaebol b
ph sn trong c 7 trong 30 chaebol ln nht ti Hn Quc nh Hanbo, KIA, Jinro,
Dainong. Vi mc n ln ti 25,83 nghn t Won v tng n nc ngoi l 130 t
USD. Theo mc tn nhim ca Hn Quc cng b nh h t mc AA- xung A+ .
vic huy ng vn tr nn kh khn v cng.
2.4 Nht Bn S st gi ca dng Yn
Cng nhng nguyn nhn trn cuc khng hong lan rng san nn kinh t ng
th 2 th gii, hu qu khin ng yn gim t mc 146,5 yn/USD xung 145,5
ym/USD. Nguyn nhn t s chm tr ca chnh ph Nht bn trc c sc l nguyn
nhn chnh ca tnh hnh dn n tnh trng hng lot cc ngn hng ti Nht Bn b
chao o, hng lot v v ca cc doanh nghip trong c gn 1800 doanh nghip
b ph sn. tht nghip tng ln 4.1%. N nc ngoi cu Nht Bn t mc k lc 14.5
t USD.

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CHNG 3

TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG N CC QUC GIA CHU

3.1 Tc ng tiu cc
Hu qu ca cuc khng hong gy ra l qu r rng, ton din v ht sc nng
n. l sc mt n nh ca ng tin v cu th trng tin t ca mi nc v khu
vc; s gim st cc lung vn nc ngoi vo mi nc v ton khu vc; l s hot
ng u t do mc li sut cao v yu t lng tin. Tt c lm suy gim nhanh chng
tc tng trng kinh t cc nc ny v ton khu vc, tnh trng tht nghip ngy
cng gia tng (chng hn, ti Thi Lan, Hn quc v Innxia tnh trng tht nghip
tng gp i so vi mc trc khng hong), cc khon n ngoi t nc ngoi gia
tng. Gi tr ng tin bn t suy gim trm trng c tnh c hn 20 ng tin khc
nhau b gim gi. Theo m nh hng n nn kinh t ton cu l khng th trnh
khi trong nn kinh t ng u th gii gim 0.5 1% trong nm 1998 v hot
ng thng mi ton cu suy gim t 2 3% so vi nm 1997.
Khng hong gy thit hi cho cc nc chu t nht 300 t USD khong
20% GDP ca cc nc b khng hong v thit hi chung ca nn kinh t ton cu ln
n 500 t USD. Nim tin ca cc nh u t t khu vc ny gim mnh, cc dng vn
cng st gim theo. Ngoi ra, cng thng tnh trng bt n nh v chnh tr theo gia
tng.
3.2 Tc ng tch cc
Bt c vn no cng tn ti 2 mt ca n cuc khng hong ny cng khng
nm ngoi l:
Cuc khng hong l im dng m u mt giai on pht trin mi y
trin vng trong n ti ca cuc khng hong c nhng thay i mi
- Vi chnh sch t gi linh hot ca cc nc s lm gim thiu c lng
ngoi t can thip gi gi bn t, gip tng d tr quc gia v lu di
- Nh vo qu trnh tr gip ca IMF, ADC v mt s quc gia khc gip gia
tng lng tn dng, tng mi quan h gip nh hng v ci thin c cu u t, lnh
mnh ha hn nn kinh t quc gia.
- Qu tnh t do ha v ton cu ha c y mnh.
3.3 nh hng ca cuc khng hong n mt s lnh vc kinh t ca Vit Nam
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3.3.1 Tc ng chung n nn kinh t Vit Nam

Cuc khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc din ra vi nhiu bin ng, su sc
c v phm vi, mc v tnh cht. T ch ch l cuc khng hong tin t, ko theo n
l cuc khng hong h thng ngn hng, tip n l cuc khng hong ti chnh v dn
chuyn thnh cuc khng hong kinh t, chnh tr, x hi su sc mt s quc gia
Chu trong c Vit Nam.
Vy cuc khng hong ny c nh hng nh th no n nn kinh t Vit
Nam?
Sau cuc khng hong ti chnh - tin t, VN c nhiu cuc hi tho khoa
hc vi cc quy m khc nhau, nhng vi cng mt ch ln l cng tm cu tr li
v vn ny.Nhng trong lc tm cu tr li th li xut hin nhiu kin khc nhau
v vn ny.
Mt s kin cho rng: VN khng chu nh hng nhiu ca cuc khng hong
v th trng ti chnh tin t cn s khai, cn ng ca i vi cc nh u t nc
ngoi, ng tin VN cha l ng tin chuyn i, cha l i tng u t quc t;
ngun vn nc ngoi vo VN phn ln l vn vay di hn; ch qun l t gi
ngoi hi kh linh hot v c iu chnh kp thi; vic vay n nc ngoi ca cc
doanh nghip tuy hiu qu s dng cn thp nhng nhn chung chng ta vn c th
kim sot c.
Nhng cng cn nhiu kin li cho rng: cuc khng hong ny tc ng
lm l chn tng l cc im yu ca nn kinh t vi cc du hiu tim n ca mc
tng trng gim, biu hin ca s pht trin khng n nh, khng vng chc; t l tit
kim trong nc t thp, trong t l vn u t nc ngoi cao v s thay i
ngun vn ny s c nh hng tiu cc n nn kinh t, cn cn vng lai thm ht ko
di. Nhng im yu ny i hi phi c cc toa thuc hu hiu phng cha v n
rt d bng n nu nh khng kp thi c bin php ng ph chng li cc tc ng ca
cuc khng hong i vi ton b nn kinh t v mt s lnh vc c th ca nn kinh t.
T y ta c th kt lun VN d mun d khng th vn khng th trnh khi
nhng tc ng trc tip v gin tip, ngn hn v di hn, tt v xu ca n n tc c
cc lnh vc kinh t - x hi ca t nc. Minh chng cho nhn nh ny nh sau:
Trc ht, c hai im khc bit ch cht nh hng n mc v phng
thc tc ng ca khng hong i vi VN
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Th nht, cc th trng ti chnh VN va cha pht trin va km ho nhp vi

cc th trng khu vc v quc t
Th hai, c cu cc lung vn chy vo VN c an ton cao gn do ch yu l
FDI v ODA.
ng thi, theo quan im ca IMF nhn thy c mt s im tng ng kh
r nt gia VN vi cc nn kinh t ang chu khng hong trong khu vc:
Th nht, VN ang c thm ht cn cn vng lai cao
Th hai, c s duy tr n nh ko di t gi VND
Th ba, c cc tn hiu r rng gia tng s cng thng trong h thng ngn hng
VN
Th t, c tn hiu v s suy gim tnh trng ti chnh ca nhiu doanh nghip,
trong c s vay n ng k bng USD. Ngoi ra, cn c mt s im d nhn
thy khc na nh tr tr ca th trng bt ng sn, s lng tng trong
chuyn dch v ci thin c cu xut khu, tnh trng tht nghip kh cao, tnh
trng hiu qu u t x hi thp v tnh nng ng ca th trng cha cao, cc
thit ch th trng cha pht trin y , tiu dng xa x v d tr ngoi t
mng.
y chnh l nhng tip im nhy cm truyn dn v cng hng cc tc ng
tiu cc ca khng hong khu vc n nn kinh t VN.
Hn na, trong bi cnh ton cu ho nn kinh t, nn kinh t cc nc trong xu
th m ca, hng ngoi th khng hong kinh t ti mt nc, hay mt khu vc s c
nhng nh hng nht nh n nn kinh t th gii ni chung, cng nh tng nn kinh
t ring bit.
Xt t nhiu gc khc nhau th bn thn ni ti nn kinh t nc ta cng cha
ng nhng yu t mang tnh nguyn nhn ca cuc khng hong tng t nh mt s
nc trong khu vc, tuy nhin mc v mt s lnh vc c nhng im khc
nhau.iu c rt ra t vic phn tch, so snh nn kinh t ca nc ta so vi nn
kinh t ca cc nc khc trong khu vc.
Nhng im ging nhau:
Nn kinh t chng ta c tc tng trng kinh t cao mt phn quan trng l
do tc tng xut khu cao 20-30%/nm, u t nc ngoi tng mnh. Mc tng
trng GDP ch yu ph thuc vo ngun vn FDI v ODA nn khi ngun nay gim
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st d gy nhng nh hng tiu cc i vi s pht trin kinh t. Nhu cu vn nc

ngoi lin tc tng ln trong khi tit kim trong nc mc thp, ch chim khong
17% GDP.
Cn cn thanh ton vng lai bi chi ko di trong nhiu nm( t nm 1992)
mc cao so vi GDP. Thm ht cn cn vng lai v cn cn thng mi gy sc p n
t gi hi oi v tng d n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam.Ring nm 1996 thm ht cn
cn vng lai 2 t la (chim khong 10% GDP) v nm 1997 mc d gim nhng
vn thm ht cao (khong 1,5 t USD).
Theo s liu c tnh ca ngn hng nh nc, trong nm 1998 mc thm ht
cn cn vng lai c kh nng tng cao hn nm 1997 (d kin 1,7 t USD). Cn cn
thng mi cng thm ht ln c th nm 1996 (4 t USD), nm 1997 (2,3 t USD),
nm 1998 (2,5 t USD).
Bi chi ngn sch nh nc ko di. Cng c thu cha c pht huy ht hiu
lc v hiu qu i vi nn kinh t, cn tht thu nhiu. c bit l vic bao cp cho mt
s doanh nghip nh nc cha c gii quyt trit , ngn sch thng xuyn bi bi
chi gy sc p ln n nhu cu vn ngoi t t bn ngoi v lng d tr quc gia cn
eo hp.
Ch t gi n nh ko di nhm mc ch to mi trng kinh t v m n
nh, thu ht vn u t nc ngoi. Lun vn nc ngoi vo nhiu to nn s
n nh t gi v tng d tr ngoi t, tuy nhin li lm tng t gi thc ca ng VN
v nh hng xu ti cn cn thanh ton quc t.
Mc n nc ngoi tng nhanh l do bnh thng ho quan h vi cc t chc
quc t v ti ho nhp vi cng ng ti chnh quc t. Tuy mc n ny gp phn dp
ng nhu cu vn u t cho nn kinh t, nhng v lu di gnh nng n ny s nh
hng khng nh n cn cn thanh ton v nhuc u ngoi t tr n n hn, nht l
khi cc khon vay nc ngoi s dng khng hiu qu, tht thot hay doanh nghip mt
kh nng tr n.
C cu vn u t c nhng du hiu cha hp l. u t tng nhanh nhng tp
trung vo mt s lnh vc nht nh nn gy ra nhng hin tng d tha nh mt s
lnh vc sn xut st thp, xi mng, ng.
H thng ti chnh ngn hng cha pht trin ph hp, cn non yu trong qun l
dc bit trong lnh vc thanh tra kim sot. Cc ngn hng cn lng lo trong qun l
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vn, cht lng tn dng km, tht thot, n ng, n qu hn, n kh i ln.Ngoi ra
trong h thng ngn hng thng mi c nhiu hot ong tn dng cho vay th chp
bt ng sn. H qu l khi th trng bt ng sn suy gim (nm 1996) nhiu doanh
nghip lm n thua l mt kh nng thanh ton y nhiu ngn hng ri vo tnh
trng thiu vn v tng gnh nng thanh ton ngoi t i vi cc hp ng bo lnh.
Nhng im khc nhau:
Th trng ti chnh tin t ca Vit Nam mi giai on s khai, cha pht
trin y c th ho nhp vo th trng ti chnh khu vc.
Th trng chng khong cha hnh thanh, cc cng c ti chnh nh c phiu,
tri phiu cha pht trin. Ngoi ra vic u t ca nc ngoi vo giy t c gi trong
nc vn cn b kim sot cht ch cha c cho php nn kh nng u c gy bt
li cho tin dng Vit Nam c hn ch. V vy sc p ca vic chuyn vn ngn hn
ra khi Vit Nam khng c v khng th gy ra nhng c sc t bin.
Ngun vn u t vo Vit Nam, ch yu di dng u t trc tip, thi hn
di theo cc d n sn xut nn cac nh u t nc ngoi cng khng th lp tc
chuyn vn ra.
Ch qun l ngoi hi ca Vit Nam tng i cht ch, k c cc giao dch
vng lai v giao dch vn, gp phn to ra mt ro chn trc nhng p lc ca
lung ngoi t chy ra ngoi hoc nhng hot ng u c.
N nc ngoi ch yu l n trung v di hn, n ngn hn khng nhiu nn sc
p t bin t lnh vc ny i vi cu ngoi t khng mnh nh mt s nc ng
Nam (c t l n nc ngoi ngn hn rt cao). Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam qun
l vic vay n nc ngoi tng i cht nn nhn chung ta vn kim sot v d bo
c nhu cu tr n tng thi k.
Chnh sch t gi tng bc linh hot trn c s n nh gi tr i ni v i
ngoi, to iu kin cho ng Vit Nam c phn nh tng i st thc vi cung cu
ngoi t to neo gi gp phn kim ch lm pht, mt mt p ng kh nng xut
khu.
C th, nm 1986-1998 ta ch ng iu chnh t gi t mc tiu ni trn: t
nm 1986-1990, t gi VND/USD tng dn t 80/USD ln ti 6.500/USD, nm
1991 ln ti 12.00/USD. Trc khi khng hong kinh t khu vc xy ra ta c gii
php nng dn t gi chnh thc( k t cui nm 1996 u nm 1997 v m rng bin
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giao dch ca ngn hng thng mi t 1 n 5% so vi t gi chnh thc thng

2.1997 l 10% v thng 8.1998 l 7%). Nhng gii php ny kp thi gp phn gim
bt sc p i vi t gi hi oi ng Vit Nam.Trong khi , nhiu nc b khng
hong gi t gi c nh qu lu, nn mt nhiu d tr can thip bo v cho
mc t gi trc khi phi th ni hon ton. V d: Thi Lan gi c nh mc t gi
25 Baht n 1 USD trong sut 13 nm v va qua b ra hn 6 t USD can thip.
Chnh ph Vit Nam sm c nhng ch o kp thi ngn chn cc nguy
c khng hong c th xy ra xut pht t nhng nguyn nhn ni sinh ca nn kinh t,
c bit l x l cc vn chnh sch. Gii php x l n qu hn (1994) v ngn chn
kp thi tnh trng m L/C thanh ton trn lan (1996) thng qua khng ch mc m L/C
ngn hn ti a hn ch c nh hng t lnh vc ny (tnh n cui nm 1997 s
d n L/C ngn hn ch cn gn 700 triu USD so vi 1,4 t USD vo thng 6.1996).
ng thi chnh ph c cc bin php x l cc ti sn th chp, gii to ngun vn cho
h thng ngn hng. Ngoi ra xc tin xy dng cc quy ch, quy nh ng b i vi
ngn hng gp phn hon thin h thng ngn hng, c bit 2 Lut ngn hng v lut
cc t chc tn dng.
T phn tch nhng c im ging nhau cng nh khc nhau gia nn kinh t
Vit Nam v mt s nc ng Nam , ta c th thy nhng nh hng c bn sau
y ca cuc khng hong ni trn i vi mt s lnh vc c th ca Vit Nam.
3.3.2 i vi lnh vc ti chnh ngn hng
3.3.2.1 Sc p gim g ng Vit Nam trn th trng hi oi
Cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu ngay lp tc gy ra sc p gim
gi ng Vit Nam do :
- Th trng d on v kh nng khng hong ca ng Vit Nam, dn ti tnh
trng gm gi, u c ngoi t. Tm l u c th trng y t gi trn th trng t
do tng mnh ( c thi im USD/ VND=14600)
- Bn cnh , t gi giao dch ca cc ngn hng thng mi cng lun mc
trn giao dich cho php.
3.3.2.2 nh hng n c cu tin t gi ti ngn hng
Cuc khng hong gin tip tc ng ti c cu tin gi gia dng Vit Nam
v ngoi t ti h thng ngn hng.Tin gi bng ng Vit Nam c xu hng tng
chm , trong tin gi bng ngoi t tng kh nhanh k c tin gi tit kim ngoi t
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Tm hiu cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu nm 1997

ca dn chng v tin gi ngoi t ca cc doanh nghip (tnh n ngy 30.11.1997 tin

gi tit kim ngoi t l 526 triu USD, tin gi ngoi t ca doanh nghip l 1720 triu
USD). Nhiu doanh nghip gi ngoi t trn ti khon m khng bn cho ngn hng
trnh kh nng gim ga ng Vit Nam.
3.3.2.3 Tc ng n hot ng giao dch ngoi t
Giao dich trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng cng nh th trng ngoi t
ni chung bi gim st.Thc t na cui nm 1997, nhu cu mua ngoi t lun cao hn
nhu cu bn ngoi t, hot ng ca th trng c lc b ngng tr v nhu cu mua bn
ch nhm mc ch phc v cho khch hng chnh ca mnh,khng mang tnh cht kinh
doanh.
3.3.2.4 Tng gnh nng n cho cc doanh nghip
Khng hong tin t khu vc tc ng tng t gi hi oi gin tip lm tng
thm cc khon n nc ngoi.c bit l cc khon n n hn thanh ton. Nhiu
doanh nghip khng mua c ngoi t hoc phi mua vi gi cao chu l rt ln .
3.3.2.5 Gy sc p i vi li sut ng Vit Nam
Ngoi t tng gi mnh lm tng nhu cu vay vn ng Vit Nam do li sut
thp hn v khng chu ri ro t gi. Nhu cu vay vn VND tng gy mt cn i v
tin ng trn th trng to sc p tng li sut ng ni t v s nh hng khng nh
n chnh sch li sut thp nhm khuyn khch u t kinh doanh sn xut i vi nn
kinh t.
3.3.2.6 i vi lnh vc ngoi thng
Th trng Chu chim 60% tng kim ngch xut khu ( trong ASEAN
chim 20%) v 70% kim ngch nhp khu ( trong ASEAN chim 28%).Trong
Singapo l th trng xut nhp khu ln nht ca Vit Nam chim ti 2/3 kim ngch
xut khu ca Vit Nam vo ASEAN v kim ngch nhp khu t ASEAN, v kim
ngch nhp khu t ASEAN. Nh vy lung hng xut nhp khu gia Vit NamASEAN, chnh xc hn l gia Vit Nam-Singapore s t chu tc ng tiu cc ca
khng hong do kinh t Singapore ang vng vng nht trong khi ASEAN.Tuy nhin
cng vi thi gian v s lan rng ca khng hong, xut khu ca Vit Nam sang
ASEAN v Chu ni ring, ra th trng th gii ni chung s chu tn tht v s st
gim khi lng ln gi c hng xut khu. l v s thu hp sc mua ca th trng
xut khu v v sc p to nn bi s ph gi ca cc ng tin khu vc vi tc cao
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hn VND, nn hng xut khu ca ta b t ln tng i so vi hng ca cc nc

cnh tranh. Mt khc, tc ng tiu cc cn ch, trong c cu kim ngch xut khu
ca Vit Nam t trng ca khi doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi chim ti trn
10% v c tc tng trng hng nm cao hn mc tng chung, s ng gp ca cc
doanh nghip ny Vit Nam gim cc nh u t ln cng ang gp kh khn
chnh quc. Chng minh r nt nht cho nhn nh ny l xu hng gim st lin tc
xut khu ca Vit Nam sang ASEAN t 2.252 tr USD nm 1996 xung cn 1.787 tr
USD nm 1997.
V mt nhp khu, tc ng ca khng hong lm gim hng xut t
ASEAN,iu va c li va c hi cho nc ta. Mt mt hng nguyn liu,vt
t,my mc phc v sn xut nht l xut khu c nhp t ASEAN r hn 1040%,gip gim chi ph u vo do gim gi thnh nng cao sc cnh tranh cho hng
Vit Nam (tuy nhin do iu chnh t gi VND 1997 mt s doanh nghip Vit Nam
kinh doanh hng nhp khu nh xng du, thp, xi mng, phn bn . b thua
l).Cn lc hng r s tm mi cch trn vo nc ta, k c qua con ng nhp
lu,khin cc doanh nghip trong nc b gim th phn,gim sn xut. Mt khi lch
trnh ct gim thu theo k hoch ca AFTA c xc tin s to ra tc ng cng
chiu lm tng p lc cnh tranh ti th trng Vit Nam.
3.3.2.7 i vi lnh vc thu ht vn v tr n nc ngoi
- Th nht, s mt n nh chung mi trng u t khu vc khin cc nh u
t trn th gii e ngi,gm vn ch i nghe ngng tnh hnh hoc chuyn vn u t
vo cc khu vc khc an ton hn. Nn nhng ng vn vo khu vc s tr nn
khan him hn v mi nc cng kh tm kim nhng ng tin r v d di hn v bn
thn cc nc ny ang c gn ci thin mi trng u t, nng cp cc ch u i
du t ca mnh, cnh tranh nhau thu ht vn nc ngoi. Trong iu kin dng
vn nc ngoi dnh cho Vit Nam cng eo hp hn.
- Th hai, trong s hn 700 cng ty t 62 nc k kt u t vo Vit Nam
vi 2137 d n v tng gi tr l 31,224tr USD (tnh n ht 12.1997), th Nic ng
, ASEAN v Nht Bn lun l nhng i tc dn u,chim 68,9% d n v 67,9%
tng gi tr u t k kt. Hu ht nhng nc ny ang c nhng vn cng thng
v ti chnh do hu qu nng n ca cuc khng hong v ti chnh tin t cc nc
. Do chc chn ngun vn ny s gim st v thiu vn, kh khn v th
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trng,chnh sch hn ch t bn u t ra nc ngoi dnh vn trong nc ca

chnh ph cc nc ,cng nh do ng bn t ca h s gim gi s kch thch cc
cng ty ca h quan tm hn n li ch m th trng trong nc s mang li.
- Th ba, cuc khng hong s lm cho Vit Nam thm kh khn v chm tr
trong vn gii ngn vn nc ngoi. Khong 62% s cam kt FDI m cha c gii
ngn l t khu vc Chu , trong 50% cc vn cam kt m cha c gii ngn li
l thuc vo cc d n bt ng sn (khch sn, du lch, nh cao tng, xy dng cc khu
th mi v xy dng) .y l s nh trng khng may mn cho chng ta v l v c
nhng kh khn v ti chnh ln s tr tr th trng bt ng sn s khin cho cc ch
u t thm l do chnh ng tr hon, ngng thc hin, gim tin , thm ch t b
nh thc hin cc cam kt du t ca h k kt. Thc tin gn y ang chng t
xu hng ny, nht l khu vc pha Nam.
- Th t, cuc khng mt mt thc y cc nc ASEAN tm n nhau, tng
cng cc n lc hp tc cng tm li thot vt qua khng hong. Do , nhu cu
tng v trao i thng mi v u t ln nhau, tng sc hp dn chung ca khu vc i
vi u t nc ngoi tr thnh t nhin v c khuyn khch nh mt li ch chung,
li ch khu vc. Mt khc, cuc khng hong t nhiu, trc tip hay gin tip, li y
cc nc ny ra xa nhau vi do nhng kh khn ti chnh ging nhau v s cnh tranh
trong vn tng xut khu, tng thu ht vn u t nc ngoi, s e ngi v t do ha
qu nhanh s lm lan truyn nhanh hn nhng tc ng tiu cc ca khng
hongLch s cng cho thy, li ch kinh t tng ko cc i tc li vi nhau, gn kt
h li,song li ch kinh t cng c th y h ra xa nhau hn mc c th. Thnh th vn
t ra cho cc nc ASEAN trong cuc khng hong ny l x l cc li ch hng
tm v cc li ch ly tm nh th no cho tha ng nht khng lm tn hi sau
bao nm xy p. Vit Nam cng chu nh hng ca thc tin .
- Th nm, s gim gi bn t do khng hong mt mt lm gim gi tr cc
khon vay hay vin tr bng chnh ng bn t cho Vit Nam (chng hn bng ng
yn i vi cc khon ODA m Nht Bn dnh cho Vit Nam); mt khc li lm tng
chi ph dch v n nu ng tin phi thanh ton l ngoi t ang ln gi so vi ng
bn t y (chng hn lm tng chi ph dch v n bng USD nu tnh theo gi VND
b gim gi 15% so vi nm trc).

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- Cui cng, th su, do khng hong, gi tr ti sn, nht l c phiu v bt ng

sn khu vc ang c xu hng st gim, lm tng s hp dn mi gi cc nh u
t mo him c tnh u c nc ngoi tin vo mua vt, tch tr ch gi ln.
Chnh v vy, mc nht nh s c s gia tng dng u t nc ngoi nhm tham
gia qu trnh mua li, sp nhp cng ty v bt ng sn khu vc. y l tn hiu v c
hi tt cho trin vng thu ht vn u t nc ngoi ca khu vc, trong c Vit
Nam.
3.3.2.8 i vi lnh vc ngn sch v u t trong nc
Vn trong nc s tha nhiu, li va thiu nhiu.ta nh tnh trng lc ca
h thng tn dng Vit Nam: cc doanh nghip thiu vn trong khi cc ngn hng tha
vn khng dm cho vay, v ni m nh ca n kh i c xu hng gia tng ph bin,
cn h thng lut php nh nc th i khi bt lc hoc km trit trong vic gii
quyt vn ny.
Thu ngn sch gim st do tnh trng suy gim tc tng trng kinh t chung
ca t nc, ca ton khu vc v ton cu, mc d c th tn ti nhng hy vng no
v kh nng tng ngun thu t thu xut-nhp khu nh h qu ca s ph gi cc
bn t khu vc v VND, song hy vng ny s b b tr cho s e ngi khc l vic gim
gi hng xut khu do sc p khng hong s lm mt i nhng khong thu ngn sch
li c khuynh hng gia tng, do s tng chi ph dich v n nc ngoi, do cc khon
chi t xut, h tr cc doanh nghip nh nc mt kh nng thanh ton, tng cc chi
ph nhp nguyn liu t bn ngoiNgoi ra, cng cn phi tnh n nhng chi ph
hn ch nhng h qu tiu cc v mt x hi di tc ng ca khng hong v ci
cch doanh nghip nh nc, tc cc khong chi h tr gii quyt vic lm cho lng
ngi tht nghip gia tng (do thu hp sn xut, c phn ha, do gim th trng xut
khu lao ng sang cc nc khu vc)

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CHNG 4

BI HC I VI VIT NAM T CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH TIN

T CHU NM 1997
Trn c s phn tch khng hong kinh t-ti chnh bn nc Thi Lan,
Indonesia, Malaysia v Hn Quc, chng ta c th rt ra 3 bi hc i vi Vit Nam.
Bi hc 1: Hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip v hiu qu kinh t quc
gia l c s quan trng nht bo m cho pht trin bn vng v phi tr thnh mt mc
tiu v ch tiu ca qun l kinh t t nc, qun l ngnh v mi doanh nghip.
khc phc s thiu ch ng mc n hiu qu sn xut kinh doanh v
pht trin, cn a vo h thng ch tiu kinh t phi bo hng nm ca mi a
phng, mi ngnh v c nc cc ch tiu nh t sut li nhun v t sut gi tr gia
tng trn vn ring ca doanh nghip theo cc ngnh, theo thnh phn kinh t v theo
cc a phng trn c nc, ng thi theo di cht ch s bin ng ca ch s ICOR
vi mi a phng v c nc.
Bi hc 2: cc doanh nghip v nn kinh t pht trin bn vng th li sut
vn vay u t phi tng ng vi hoc nh hn kh nng sinh li ca doanh
nghip.
Nh vy, pht trin bn vng li sut tn dng phi ch yu hnh thnh trn c
s quan h cung cu, ch khng phi da vo ch nh nc. Nu li sut tn dng nh
hn kh nng sinh li ca doanh nghip v sn phm ca doanh nghip c tnh cnh
tranh cao, th doanh nghip c th s cng pht trin nhanh v hiu qu kinh doanh cao,
nu cng vay c nhiu vn.
So snh tc tng trng GDP v li sut tin gi mt s nc cho ta v d
minh ha sau.

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Bng 4.1: Tng trng GDP bnh qun v li sut tin gi bnh qun 1991-1996
(n v tnh: %)
Thi Lan Hn Quc Indonesia
Tng trng GDP

Malaysia

Singapore

7,72

7,42

7,21

8,75

5,32

11,26

10,26

8,90

7,33

6,70

4,77

3,30

bnh qun nm 19911996 (%/nm)

Li sut tin gi bnh
qun nm (%/nm)
Ngun : Tp ch Pht trin kinh t thng 12 nm 2002
Ba nc tch ly c bn nguy c khng hong kinh t-ti chnh l Thi
Lan, Hn Quc, Indonesia, trong c hai nguy c, hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh
nghip v cc ngn hng km, th u c tc tng trng GDP bnh qun thp hn
li sut tin gi bnh qun. Cn M v Singapore l hai nc c ting v hiu qu kinh
t cao, th tc tng trng GDP u cao hn li sut tin gi.
Bi hc 3: Cn c mt t chc chuyn trch ca chnh ph theo di s bin ng
ca lm pht, t gi hi oi, li sut tn dng trong nc v quc t, cn cn ti khon
vng lai, n quc gia, hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip xut cc chnh
sch v iu cn thit, bo m pht trin quc gia bn vng vi tng trng tng i
cao.

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TI LIU THAM KHO

1. ASEAN University Network(2000), Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia and

Korea, Tradition and Modernity Publisher, Seoul, Korea.
2. Phm Quang Thao, ng Xun Hoan, Chu Vit Cng, Nguyn Lng Thanh,
H Trung Thanh.(1998) Khng hong ti chnh-tin t chu , NXB chnh
tr quc gia, H Ni.
3. Fusion Confusion, the Economist, 4.4.1998, P.87.
4. nh Thm(1998). Khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc, nguyn nhn v gii
pht, NXB thng tin KHXH, H Ni.
5. IMF, International Statistics, 1.1999.
6. Facts about Korea, Korean Information Service, Seoul, Korea, 2001.
7. Nguyn Thin Nhn (2002). Khng hong kinh t- ti chnh chu 19971999, NXB i hc Quc gia TP.HCM.
8. Tp ch Pht trin kinh t thng 12 nm 2002
9. Paul Krugman (2009). S tr li ca kinh t hc suy thoi, BXB Tr, TP H
Ch Minh.

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MC LC
Trang

PHN M U............................................................................................... 1
1. Mc tiu nghin cu.............................................................................. 1
1.1 Mc tiu chung................................................................................. 1
1.2 Mc tiu c th................................................................................. 1
2. Phm vi nghin cu ............................................................................... 1
PHN NI DUNG ........................................................................................... 2
CHNG 1 TNH HNH TI CHNH TIN T CA MT S QUC GIA
CHU TRONG CUC KHNG HONG NM 1997 .............................. 2
1.1 Hnh nh ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t 19971999 mt s nc
Chu ......................................................................................................... 2
1.2 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh
t - ti chnh............................................................................................... 5
CHNG 2 TM TT DIN BIN CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH
TIN T MT S NC CHU .......................................................... 8
2.1. Thi Lan Ngi n ca cuc khng hong.......................................... 8
2.1.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Thi Lan trc khng hong ............................... 8
2.1.2 Din bin khng hong kinh t-ti chnh Thi Lan..................... 11
2.2 Indonesia Hiu ng lan truyn ca cuc khng hong .................. 12
2.3 Hn Quc S sp ca cc tp on kinh t (CHAEBOL)......... 12
2.4 Nht Bn S st gi ca dng Yn .................................................. 13
CHNG 3 TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG N CC QUC GIA
CHU .......................................................................................................... 14
3.1 Tc ng tiu cc ................................................................................ 14
3.2 Tc ng tch cc ................................................................................ 14
3.3 nh hng ca cuc khng hong n mt s lnh vc kinh ........... 14
3.3.1 Tc ng chung n nn kinh t Vit Nam t ca Vit Nam ......... 14
3.3.2 i vi lnh vc ti chnh ngn hng ............................................ 19
3.3.2.1 Sc p gim g ng Vit Nam trn th trng hi oi.... 19
3.3.2.2 nh hng n c cu tin t gi ti ngn hng................. 19

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3.3.2.3 Tc ng n hot ng giao dch ngoi t ........................ 20

3.3.2.4 Tng gnh nng n cho cc doanh nghip.......................... 20
3.3.2.5 Gy sc p i vi li sut ng Vit Nam ........................ 20
3.3.2.6 i vi lnh vc ngoi thng ........................................... 20
3.3.2.7 i vi lnh vc thu ht vn v tr n nc ngoi ............. 21
3.3.2.8 i vi lnh vc ngn sch v u t trong nc ............... 23
CHNG 4 BI HC I VI VIT NAM T CUC KHNG HONG TI
CHNH TIN T CHU NM 1997 ........................................................ 24
TI LIU THAM KHO.............................................................................. 26

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DANH MC BIU BNG
Trang

Bng 1.1 T gi hi oi bnh qun nm 1996 v 1997 ...................................... 2

Bng 1.2 Tnh trng thua l v ph sn ca h thng ngn hng, ti chnh.......... 3
Bng 1.3 Tnh trng thua l v ph sn ca cc doanh nghip ............................ 3
Bng 1.4 Tng trng kinh t v tht nghip khi khng hong kinh t - ti chnh
........................................................................................................................... 4
Bng 2.1. S liu kinh t Thi Lan (din tch 514.000 km2, dn s 61 triu ngi)
......................................................................................................................... 10
Bng 4.1: Tng trng GDP bnh qun v li sut tin gi bnh qun 1991-1996
......................................................................................................................... 25

DANH MC HNH
S 1.1 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh t
- ti chnh ......................................................................................................... 5

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