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Chuyn nhm
PHN M U
1. Mc tiu nghin cu
1.1 Mc tiu chung
Tm hiu nguyn nhn v din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t
Chu nm 1997.
1.2 Mc tiu c th
-
1997.
-
Tnh hnh kinh t ca mt s quc gia Chu trong cuc khng hong..
2. Phm vi nghin cu
Chuyn ch gii thiu nguyn nhn, din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh
tin t Thi Lan v mt s nc chu nm 1997 v nhng bi hc kinh nghim i
vi Vit Nam.
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PHN NI DUNG
CHNG 1
TNH HNH TI CHNH TIN T CA MT S QUC GIA
CHU TRONG CUC KHNG HONG NM 1997
1. 1 Hnh nh ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t 19971999 mt s nc
Chu
Cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t chu n ra nm 1997 trc ht xut pht
t Thi Lan. Ngy 2.7.1997, Ngn hng trung ng Thi Lan tuyn b th ni ng
Baht, chm dt mt thi k di duy tr t gi hi oi gn nh c nh so vi ng
USD. T gi hi oi Baht/USD: nm 1991 l 25,28, nm 1992: 25,19, nm 1996:
25,61 (Bng 2.1).
Ngay khi ng Baht b tuyn b th ni, n mt gi 20%. Thng 1.1998 t gi
hi oi t mc 53 Baht/USD.
Ngy 11.7.1997, Philippines tuyn b th ni ng Peso.
Ngy 11.8.1997, Malaysia tuyn b khng can thip vo th trng hi oi
(thc cht l th ni ng Ringgit).
Ngy 14.8.1997, Indonesia tuyn b th ni ng Rupiah.
Nm 1996, t gi bnh qun ng Won ca Hn Quc l 884,2 Won/USD th:
ngy 30.9.1997 l 914,8 Won/USD, ngy 14.12.1997 ng Won c th ni.
C th ni s mt gi nhanh vi quy m cha tng c ca nhng ng tin Thi
Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia, Indonesia v Hn Quc l biu hin d nhn thy ca s
bng n khng hong kinh t-ti chnh cc nc ny.
Bng 1.1 T gi hi oi bnh qun nm 1996 v 1997
Nc/ T gi bnh qun
1996
1997
Thi Lan
25,61
47,25
Phillippines
26,29
39,50
Malaysia
2,52
3,88
Indonesia
2,308
5,400
Hn Quc
844,20
695,8
Ngun: ASEAN University Network(2000), Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia and
Korea, Tradition and Modernity Publisher, Seoul, Korea.
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Biu hin bn ngoi th hai ca tnh trng khng hong ti chnh tin t l s
thua l v ph sn vi tc v quy m tht thng ca h thng ngn hng, ti chnh
quc gia, (Bng 1.2).
Bng 1.2 Tnh trng thua l v ph sn ca h thng ngn hng, ti chnh
Nc
Nm
ti
chnh
1.4.1996
n
31.3.1999
Thi Lan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hn Quc
Biu hin bn ngoi th ba ca tnh trng khng hong kinh t-ti chnh l s
thua l v ph sn vi quy m v tc bt thng ca doanh nghip (Bng 1.3).
Thi gian
S doanh nghip ph sn
Thng 1.1998 n 3.961 doanh nghip ngng hot ng, trong
5.1998
c 592 ph sn
doanh
nghip
ph
sn
Malaysia
Nm
1996 489
Nm 1997
6.583 doanh nghip ph sn (bng 13 ln so
vi 1996)
Indonesia
Nm 1998
Khong 80% doanh nghip ngng hot
ng
Hn Quc
Nm
1997 14.000
doanh
nghip
ph
sn
Nm 1998
53.000 doanh nghip ph sn (gp 3,8 ln
nm 1997)
Ngun: nh Thm(1998). Khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc, nguyn nhn v
gii pht, NXB thng tin KHXH, H Ni v Nguyn Thin Nhn (2002). Khng
hong kinh t- ti chnh chu 1997-1999, NXB i hc Quc gia TP.HCM.
S ph sn ca hng lot ngn hng, doanh nghip s dn n hai hu qu trc
tip l s ngi tht nghip tng mnh, v tng trng kinh t b gim st,(Bng 1.4).
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Bng 1.4 Tng trng kinh t v tht nghip khi khng hong kinh t - ti chnh
Tng trng kinh t (%)
T l tht nghip (%)
1996
1997
1998
1996
1997
1998
Thi Lan
6,7
-0,4
-8,3
Malaysia
8,2
7,0
2,0
Indonesia
7,8
4,6
-13,7
Philippines
5,8
5,2
-0,5
9,5
10,4
3,3
Hn Quc
7,1
5,5
-5,8
2,3
2,5
8,0
Ngun: ASEAN University Network(2000), Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia and
Korea, Tradition and Modernity Publisher, Seoul, Korea, tr 21- 25 v Nguyn Thin
Nhn (2002). Khng hong kinh t- ti chnh chu 1997-1999, NXB i hc
Quc gia TP.HCM.
Nm 1996, tng thu nhp quc gia ca Hn Quc l 528 t USD, nm 1998 gim
ch cn 317 t USD, gim 39%, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi gim t 11.380 USD cn
6.823 USD, [6, tr61].
V mt kinh t, khng hong 1997-1999 4 nc Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia
v Hn Quc c c im ging nhau v xu hng din bin ca nm tham s:
1. T gi hi oi tng mnh, ngoi tm kim sot
2. Ph sn hng lot cc ngn hng, cng ti chnh
3. Ph sn hng lot ca cc doanh nghip
4. Tht nghip tng mnh
5. Tng trng kinh t tng mnh
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1.2 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh t ti chnh
S 1.1 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong
kinh t - ti chnh
S ln gi ca ng ni t
u t nc ngoi.
Khi ng ni t b ln gi do quc gia duy tr t gi hi oi gn nh c nh qu
lu, yu km v xut khu, gi li sut cho vay trong nc cao hn li sut cc ng
tin mnh nc ngoi, th trc sau nguy c mt kh nng thanh ton s ngy cng
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Th nhng , t sut thu hi hay t sut li nhun trn ti sn (ROA) bnh qun ca
cc doanh nghip gim t 8%/nm vo nm 1991 xung ch cn 1%/nm nm vo
1996 . Trong mt nn kinh t m li xut cho vay l 16,3%/nm cn hiu qu kinh
doanh ca doanh nghip l 1%/nm th r rng l ang tch ly nguy c khng hong.
Ngn hng hot ng ngy cng km hiu qu
Trc nhu cu vn ca cc doanh nghip v do c phn bung lng vai tr gim
st hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip i vay nn cc ngn hng v cng ty ti
chnh ca Thi Lan rt tch cc vay n nc ngoi ti tr cho doanh nghip trong
nc .
Tng n nc ngoi so vi tng ti sn nc ngoi m h thng ngn hng c tng t
171% (1991) ln 694% (1996). ng thi ROA ca h thng ngn hng Thi Lan ch
cn 0,99%/nm. R rng Thi Lan ang tch ly nguy c khng hong ph sn Ngn
hng.
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Bng 2.1. S liu kinh t Thi Lan (din tch 514.000 km2, dn s 61 triu
ngi)
Nm
Tng trng (%)
GDP (a)
Baht/USD
1991
7,0
1992
7,1
1993
8,2
1994
8,6
1995
8,7
1996
6,7
1997
-0,4
25,28
25,32
25,54 25,09
25,19
25,61
47,25
1998 1999
-8,3 1
41,3 37,11
7
5,6
8,1 5,02
56,7 52,9
-55,3 -40,6
Lm pht (%)
5,7
4,1
4,6
5,1
5,8
4,8
Xut khu (t USD) 28,23
32,1
36,4 44,47
55,4
54,4
Nhp khu (t -34,22 -36,26 -40,09 -48,2
-63,4
-63,9
USD)
Cn cn thng
-5,9 -4,16
-4,3
-3,7
-7,7
-9,5
1,5
mi (t USD)
Cn cn ti khon -7,59
-6,3 -6,36 -8,08 -13,55 -14,69 -3,02
vng lai (t USD)
Cn cn ti khon 11,26
9,47
10,5 12,17
21,9
19,5 -15,8
vn (t USD
u t trc tip 1,847 1,966 1,571 0,873 1,182
1,405 3,344
thun (t USD)
u t ti chnh 9,994 6,584 3,474 8,812 16,644 14,537 -23,51
thun (c phiu
tri phiu, t USD)
u t khc thun -0,081 0,924 5,455 2,481 4,181
3,544 4,361
(t USD)
N nc ngoi (ti 35,99 39,61 45,84 60,99
65,0
89,0
97,0
USD)
N ngn hn (ti
43,6
45,7
45,6
USD)
D tr ngoi t (t
18,4
21,2
25,4 30,3
37,0
38,7
27,0
USD)
u t c nh tnh
38,0
39,5
39,9 40,1
42,8
39,8
39,1
bng % GDP (b)
ICOR (b/a)
5,4
5,56
4,86 4,92
5,94
Ngun : Tp ch Pht trin kinh t thng 12 nm 2002
12,3 -36,26
14,3 7,2
-9,5 85,29
8,844
60,04
16,4
29,5
40
5,2
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ng khng trnh khi l vay tin nc ngoi (t cc ngn hng, cc doanh nghip,
nh u t ti chnh, chnh ph cc nc). V vy n nc ngoi ca Thi Lan khng
ngng tng, t 35,99 t USD nm 1991 ln 89 t USD nm 1996, gp 2,47 ln trong
vng 5 nm, v bng 54% GDP N ngn hn chim: 67% tng n nc ngoi (1995),
51% tng n nc ngoi (1996). N ngn hn nm 1995 v 1996 gp gn 1,18 ln d
tr ngoi t ca quc gia. Tc l Thi Lan thc t mt kh nng thanh ton n nc
ngoi t nm 1995. Tc l thc t TL mt kh nng thanh ton n nc ngoi t
nm 1995. Nu cc nh u t Thi Lan cng phi th ni ng ni a Baht, th chnh
h s bn c phiu, tri phiu, i n ngn hn, i t tin Baht ra USD, lm tng cu
ngoi t t ngt. Kt qu l t gi hi oi s tng, d tr ngoi t cn kit, nguy c
mt kh nng thanh ton ca quc gia s ngy cng cao. n thng 6.1997 n nc
ngoi ca Thi Lan bng 1,5 ln d tr ngoi t ca Thi Lan.
Tm li, cui 1996 u 1997, Thi Lan tch ly c 4 nguy c khng hong mc
cao .
2.1.2 Din bin khng hong kinh t-ti chnh Thi Lan
u nm 1997 n thng 3 nm 1997: ngi dn v cc nh u t bt u rt
vn ra khi cc ngn hng v cc cng ty ti chnh, chnh ph phi ng ca th trng
chng khong ngy 3.3.1997. Chnh ph yu cu cc t chc ti chnh phi tng cng
d tr tin mt, thng bo 10 cng ty ti chnh trng thi khng bnh thng (Unico
housing Co.Ltd ; Thai-Fuji; Royal International; Sri Dhana; Eastern Finance;
County.).
Ngy 4 v 5/3/1997: hn 21,4 t Baht (820tr USD) c rt khi cc ngn
hng v cng ty ti chnh.
9/4/1997: t gi hi oi tng ln mc 26,08baht/USD
25/6/1997: tng s cng ty ti chnh b ng ca l 58/91 cty (64%) trn ton
quc
gi t gi hi oi, chnh ph phi bn ngoi t lm d tr ngoi t gim mnh t
38,78 t USD thng 6.1996 cn 37.7 t USD vo thng 12.1996 v cn 31.4 t USD vo
30.6.1997.
Nu mc gim st d tr quc gia ca qu 2 nm 1997 ko di thm khong
2-3 qu na th lc d tr ngoi t quc gia ch cn khong 10 t USD , bng 1/3
mc d tr ngoi t nm 1996 , v chnh ph s buc phi th ni t gi hi oi v
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vn, cht lng tn dng km, tht thot, n ng, n qu hn, n kh i ln.Ngoi ra
trong h thng ngn hng thng mi c nhiu hot ong tn dng cho vay th chp
bt ng sn. H qu l khi th trng bt ng sn suy gim (nm 1996) nhiu doanh
nghip lm n thua l mt kh nng thanh ton y nhiu ngn hng ri vo tnh
trng thiu vn v tng gnh nng thanh ton ngoi t i vi cc hp ng bo lnh.
Nhng im khc nhau:
Th trng ti chnh tin t ca Vit Nam mi giai on s khai, cha pht
trin y c th ho nhp vo th trng ti chnh khu vc.
Th trng chng khong cha hnh thanh, cc cng c ti chnh nh c phiu,
tri phiu cha pht trin. Ngoi ra vic u t ca nc ngoi vo giy t c gi trong
nc vn cn b kim sot cht ch cha c cho php nn kh nng u c gy bt
li cho tin dng Vit Nam c hn ch. V vy sc p ca vic chuyn vn ngn hn
ra khi Vit Nam khng c v khng th gy ra nhng c sc t bin.
Ngun vn u t vo Vit Nam, ch yu di dng u t trc tip, thi hn
di theo cc d n sn xut nn cac nh u t nc ngoi cng khng th lp tc
chuyn vn ra.
Ch qun l ngoi hi ca Vit Nam tng i cht ch, k c cc giao dch
vng lai v giao dch vn, gp phn to ra mt ro chn trc nhng p lc ca
lung ngoi t chy ra ngoi hoc nhng hot ng u c.
N nc ngoi ch yu l n trung v di hn, n ngn hn khng nhiu nn sc
p t bin t lnh vc ny i vi cu ngoi t khng mnh nh mt s nc ng
Nam (c t l n nc ngoi ngn hn rt cao). Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam qun
l vic vay n nc ngoi tng i cht nn nhn chung ta vn kim sot v d bo
c nhu cu tr n tng thi k.
Chnh sch t gi tng bc linh hot trn c s n nh gi tr i ni v i
ngoi, to iu kin cho ng Vit Nam c phn nh tng i st thc vi cung cu
ngoi t to neo gi gp phn kim ch lm pht, mt mt p ng kh nng xut
khu.
C th, nm 1986-1998 ta ch ng iu chnh t gi t mc tiu ni trn: t
nm 1986-1990, t gi VND/USD tng dn t 80/USD ln ti 6.500/USD, nm
1991 ln ti 12.00/USD. Trc khi khng hong kinh t khu vc xy ra ta c gii
php nng dn t gi chnh thc( k t cui nm 1996 u nm 1997 v m rng bin
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Bng 4.1: Tng trng GDP bnh qun v li sut tin gi bnh qun 1991-1996
(n v tnh: %)
Thi Lan Hn Quc Indonesia
Tng trng GDP
Malaysia
Singapore
7,72
7,42
7,21
8,75
5,32
11,26
10,26
8,90
7,33
6,70
4,77
3,30
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PHN M U............................................................................................... 1
1. Mc tiu nghin cu.............................................................................. 1
1.1 Mc tiu chung................................................................................. 1
1.2 Mc tiu c th................................................................................. 1
2. Phm vi nghin cu ............................................................................... 1
PHN NI DUNG ........................................................................................... 2
CHNG 1 TNH HNH TI CHNH TIN T CA MT S QUC GIA
CHU TRONG CUC KHNG HONG NM 1997 .............................. 2
1.1 Hnh nh ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t 19971999 mt s nc
Chu ......................................................................................................... 2
1.2 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh
t - ti chnh............................................................................................... 5
CHNG 2 TM TT DIN BIN CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH
TIN T MT S NC CHU .......................................................... 8
2.1. Thi Lan Ngi n ca cuc khng hong.......................................... 8
2.1.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Thi Lan trc khng hong ............................... 8
2.1.2 Din bin khng hong kinh t-ti chnh Thi Lan..................... 11
2.2 Indonesia Hiu ng lan truyn ca cuc khng hong .................. 12
2.3 Hn Quc S sp ca cc tp on kinh t (CHAEBOL)......... 12
2.4 Nht Bn S st gi ca dng Yn .................................................. 13
CHNG 3 TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG N CC QUC GIA
CHU .......................................................................................................... 14
3.1 Tc ng tiu cc ................................................................................ 14
3.2 Tc ng tch cc ................................................................................ 14
3.3 nh hng ca cuc khng hong n mt s lnh vc kinh ........... 14
3.3.1 Tc ng chung n nn kinh t Vit Nam t ca Vit Nam ......... 14
3.3.2 i vi lnh vc ti chnh ngn hng ............................................ 19
3.3.2.1 Sc p gim g ng Vit Nam trn th trng hi oi.... 19
3.3.2.2 nh hng n c cu tin t gi ti ngn hng................. 19
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DANH MC HNH
S 1.1 M hnh Cc nguy c khng hong v c ch pht sinh khng hong kinh t
- ti chnh ......................................................................................................... 5
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