Professional Documents
Culture Documents
b gio dc v o to
Tr-ng i hc ngoi th-ng
---------------------------
Nhm ngnh: Xh 1a
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MC LC
LI NI U ................................................................................................. 1
CHNG I. C S L LUN ....................................................................... 4
I. L thuyt v t gi hi oi: .......................................................................... 4
1. Khi nim t gi hi oi: ......................................................................... 4
2. Cc loi t gi: ........................................................................................... 5
2.1. T gi chnh thc:................................................................................ 5
2.2. T gi kinh doanh:............................................................................... 5
2.3. T gi xut khu T gi nhp khu: ................................................. 7
3. C s hnh thnh v mt s ch t gi hi oi hin hnh: .................. 7
3.1. C s hnh thnh: C s hnh thnh t gi hi oi l da trn lch
s pht trin ca cc ch tin t trn th gii v c chia thnh cc
giai on sau ............................................................................................... 7
3.1.1. T gi hi oi di ch bn v vng (trc chin tranh Th
gii ln th 1 nm 1914). ..................................................................... 7
3.1.2. T gi hi oi trong ch tin t Bretton Woods..................... 7
3.1.3. T gi hi oi sau khi ch tin t Bretton Woods sp
(1973) cho n nay. ................................................................................ 8
3.2. Mt s ch t gi hin hnh: ....................................................... 10
3.2.1. Ch t gi c nh: ................................................................. 10
3.2.2. Ch t gi th ni t do:......................................................... 11
3.2.3. Ch t gi hn hp (th ni kt hp vi iu tit ca Chnh
ph): ...................................................................................................... 13
4. Nhng nhn t nh hng n s bin ng ca t gi: ......................... 14
4.1. Lng cung tin: .............................................................................. 14
4.2. Thu nhp thc t:.............................................................................. 15
4.3. D on lm pht tng lai:............................................................. 15
DANH MC CC T VIT TT
CAD
La Canada
CHXHCN
Cng ha x hi ch ngha
CPI
Ch s gi tiu dng
EUR
ng Euro
GBP
ng Bng Anh
GDP
IMF
Qu tin t th gii
JPY
ng Yn Nht
NHNN
Ngn hng Nh nc
NHTM
NHTW
PPP
Sc mua tng ng
SGD
La Singapore
TGHD
T gi hi oi
THB
ng Bt Thi
TMCP
Thng mi c phn
USD
La m
VND
ng Vit Nam
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LI NI U
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti:
Trong nhng nn kinh t m, t gi hi oi l vn nhy cm v c
tc ng ln nht n th trng tin t ni ring v s vn hnh ca mt nn
kinh t ni chung. Vic iu hnh c ch t gi l rt kh khn i vi nhng
nh hoch nh chnh sch (policy maker). Vic iu chnh t gi c nh
hng ln n cn cn thng mi v tnh hnh xut nhp khu ca quc gia,
c bit l xut nhp khu du th.
Xng du lun ng vai tr c bit quan trng trong s pht trin ca
mi nn kinh t. i vi nhng nc pht trin nh M, Nht, du th l
nhin liu khng th thay th i vi nhiu ngnh cng nghip sn xut v cc
hot ng khc. i vi nhng nc khc nh cc nc Chu M Latin hay
cc nc Trung ng, y li l mt hng xut khu chnh, mang li phn ln
thu nhp quc dn ca cc quc gia . C th khng nh du th l nhn t
duy tr, thc y s pht trin ca mi quc gia.
T u nm 2008 n nay, gi du trn th gii bin ng khng ngng
v rt kh lng. Thng 07/2008, gi du th th gii tng t mc k lc
162 USD/thng, tuy nhin hin nay gi ch cn xp x 60 USD/thng. iu
ny tc ng khng nh n nn kinh t th gii, c bit l cc quc gia
ang pht trin nh VIt Nam.
Hin nay, Vit Nam ang trong qu trnh cng nghip ha hin i ha,
nn kinh t tng trng kh nng v nhu cu v du th l rt ln. Hng
nm, kim ngch nhp khu du th ca nc ta l rt ln. Chnh v th, nn
kinh t Vit Nam kh d b tn thng trc nhng bin ng ca gi du
trn th gii v iu ny s gy nhiu tiu cc cho nn kinh t.
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CHNG I. C S L LUN
I. L thuyt v t gi hi oi:
1. Khi nim t gi hi oi:
Ngy nay, vi xu th m ca nn kinh t, vic trao i hng ha dch v
gia cc quc gia tr nn thun li hn rt nhiu. Mt vn ny sinh
trong thng mi quc t l mi quc gia li c ng tin ring ca mnh nn
vic thanh ton nht thit phi s dng tin t ca mt trong hai nc, hoc s
dng mt ng tin mnh no . V vy, cc quc gia phi da trn TGHD
chuyn i ng tin ca mnh.
Theo quan im kinh t hc, TGHD l mt phm tr kinh t quan trng,
l cng c o lng gi tr tng i gia cc ng tin v l phng tin
cnh tranh hu hiu gia cc quc gia trong thng mi (v d bn ph gi
hi oi) hay u t quc t. T gi nh hng n gi c v tc ng ti cc
hot ng kinh t - x hi trong v ngoi nc nn n cn c coi l mt
cng c ca chnh sch ti chnh tin t ca Chnh ph Chnh ph iu
tit nn kinh t. Mc tc ng ca Chnh ph khc nhau ty vo tng thi
im, ph thuc vo s bin ng ca mi trng kinh t v m.
Theo quan im ca cc nh kinh doanh, TGHD l s so snh mi tng
quan gi tr gia hai ng tin pht sinh trong cc hot ng lin quan n
hot ng xut nhp khu, u t, giao dch ti chnh quc tHay ni mt
cch khc, t gi l gi ca mt loi tin t c biu hin qua mt loi tin t
khc. N c coi nh mt loi gi quc t b tc ng bi nhiu yu t khc
nhau trong khng gian quc t.
Tn ngoi t
CANADIAN
DOLLAR
Tn ting Vit
Mua
Bn
la Canada
15,537.34
15,905.25
EUR
EURO
Euro
25,368.12
25,864.20
GBP
BRITISH POUND
Bng Anh
29,448.59
30,085.18
JPY
JAPANESE YEN
Yn Nht
193.96
199.15
USD
US DOLLAR
la M
17,806.00
17,806.00
Loi
T gi bn
tin
Tin mt/sc
Chuyn khon
JPY
188.26
189.21
192.85
EUR
25,222
25,348
25,736
GBP
29,420
29,567
30,021
THB
484.20
486.62
591.83
SGD
12,416
12,478
12,671
Tham chiu
K hn (ngy)
T gi mua
T gi bn
17,809
17,813
17,818
17,826
30
17,892
17,903
90
18,048
18,103
180
18,292
18,404
365
18,615
19,021
Ngun: www.techcombank.com.vn
CPI VN
CPI USA
C s cn bn xc nh t gi hi oi th ni l quan h cung cu
ngoi t trn th trng ngoi hi. Khi , t gi c xc nh gn vi sc
mua thc t ca ng tin cc nc . N phn nh tng i xc thc
nhng bin i kinh t ca mi nc v s thay i trong tng quan kinh t
gia cc nc vi nhau.
Nhng quan im ng duy tr ch t gi th ni cho rng n s tr
thnh c s thc hin mong mun ca cc nc theo ui mt chnh sch
tin t c lp, tch khi s rng buc phi neo t gi li bt chp nhng thay
i ca th trng nh trong ch t gi Bretton Woods. Ch t gi th
ni tt hn ch t gi c nh ch t gi th ni nhy vi th trng
ngoi hi. iu ny cho php lm du tc ng ca cc c sc v chu k kinh
doanh nc ngoi. Thm vo , n khng bp mo cc hot ng kinh t.
Tuy nhin, nhng ngi khng ng tnh vi vic duy tr ch t gi
ny cho rng t gi hi oi th ni li gy ra nhng bin ng ht sc tht
thng, lm cho s ln xung ca gi cc ng tin khng sao d on trc
. Nhng ri ro ca TGHD xy ra thng xuyn. iu ny lm tng yu t
gy mt n nh ca nn kinh t, cn tr kh nng kim sot qu trnh tng
trng v pht trin kinh t ca cc chnh ph. Ly v d khi Vit Nam duy tr
ch t gi th ni trong giai on 1989 1992. Bn cnh nhng thnh
cng vt bc do ch ny mang li th cng c nhng iu khin cho
nhng nh qun l kinh t VN phi suy ngh khi m vic t gi c quyt
nh theo th trng vi hon cnh nh nn kinh t VN to ra nhng mt
hn ch nh: nn kinh t hay xy ra nhng cn sc nh k cui qu hoc
cui nm; lm pht thng tng vt bt thnh lnh; hin tng la ha trong
h thng lu thng thanh ton ngy cng tng nhanh; s mt cn i gia cc
vng, cc lnh vc; s qun l lng lo dn n hng lot v b tn dng
vo cui nm 1991 v u nm 1992; ngun thu ngoi t khng c qun l
cht ch m cn b bung lng lm cho d tr ngoi t tng chm trong 3 nm
12
13
14
(t l
16
19
20
DT XK = p. q . r
Trong : - p : gi xut khu
- q : lng xut khu
- r : t gi
Quan h b ba ny c nh hng quan trng n kim ngch xut khu
cng nh n li nhun thu c t hot ng xut khu. Trong hot ng
xut khu, b ba: t gi, gi xut khu, lng hng xut khu to thnh cu
trc c bn ca qu trnh hnh thnh v bin ng ca kim ngch xut khu v
li nhun xut khu thu c.
Vi vic c nh mt trong ba yu t trn, s thay i ca hai yu t cn
li s dn n bin ng ca kim ngch xut khu v li nhun xut khu. C
th l, nu vi mt lng hng nht nh, gi xut khu v t gi thay i s
lm bin i kim ngch xut khu v li nhun xut khu. C th ni trong ba
yu t trn th lng hng xut khu l yu t m doanh nghip d dng thay
i nht. V gi, gi xut khu thng thng l gi quc t do vy cc doanh
nghip Vit Nam buc phi theo, khng c quyn quyt nh v gi. V t
gi, y l yu t v m thuc quan h cung cu th trng v s iu tit ca
Chnh ph do cng nm ngoi tm kim sot ca cc doanh nghip. Thm
na, nu c s thay i v t gi th s thay i cng khng ng k, khin
cho doanh thu v li nhun xut khu khng b nh hng nhiu. V th nn
ng trn lp trng doanh nghip, yu t lng hng xut khu l yu t c
th ch ng thay i. Lng hng xut cng ln, doanh thu v li nhun
cng tng. Tt nhin, t c iu ny doanh nghip cn ch trng n
vic tng nng lc cnh tranh v nng lc ni ti ca mnh.
21
Gi xut khu
Kim ngch
xut khu
Li nhun
xut khu
Li nhun
xut khu
T gi hi oi
22
23
25
Bng 1.4: Tng quan gia t gi danh ngha vi t gi thc t tnh theo
ngang gi sc mua
1992
T gi hi oi danh
ngha (VND)
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
CPI VN
100
105,2
120,3
135,6
141,7
146,8
CPI Hoa K
100
103,0
105,6
108,6
111,8
114,3
T gi hi oi tnh theo
PPP (VND)
0,00
7,03
15,94
27,55
27,31
28,14
danh ngha
Ngun: Tp ch Ti chnh thng 2.2004 (T.33)
S liu trn cho thy, t nm 1992 cho n trc khi xy ra cuc khng
hong ti chnh tin t khu vc (1997), t gi hi oi danh ngha nhn
chung l n nh, dao ng xung quanh mc ~ 10500 - ~11200 VND/USD.
Tuy nhin, nu so vi t gi tnh theo phng php ngang gi sc mua th t
gi hi oi danh ngha ca nm 1997 thp hn t gi hi oi thc ti 28%,
ngha l ng tin VN tng gi thc t xp x 28,14% (iu ny dn ti
thm ht trong cn cn thng mi tnh tuyt i bng tin t gia tng lin
tc 1 hu qu ca vic duy tr ch t gi c nh).
4. Giai on 4: 1997 1999: Ch t gi c nh vi bin dao ng.
y l giai on cuc khng hong ti chnh - tin t din ra khu vc
ng Nam , bt u t Thi Lan, sau lan nhanh khp khu vc v c tm
nh hng rng khp trn phm vi th gii. Trong thi k kinh t hi nhp,
Vit Nam cng khng th trnh khi nhng nh hng ca cuc khng
26
T gi c
T gi mi (sau
(VND/USD)
iu chnh)
(VND/USD)
13.10.1997
16.02.1998
11.800
7.08.1998
12.998
6.11.1998
12.992
14.11.1998
11.175
10%
12.991
16.11.1998
12.989
26.11.1998
12.987
15.01.1999
12.980
7%
29
30
Theo s liu thu thp vo thng 6, 2007 th hin Vit Nam sn xut
khong 362 ngn thng du th mi ngy, mt con s rt khim tn so vi cc
nc trong khu vc . Sn lng du m do Trung Quc sn xut gp 10, 6
ln, do Indonesia sn xut gp 3 ln, do n sn xut gp 2,3 ln, do
Malaysia sn xut gp 2 ln. Trong s cc nc ASEAN c bin, VN ng
gn vi Thi, ch trn Brunei v Singapore. Bt u t khong 2004, sn
lng khai thc c bt u i theo suy gim r rt. Nm 2004 c
20.35 triu tn, nm 2005 gim xung cn 18.84 triu tn, nm 2006 cn
32
33
Kim ngch XK
1000T
Du Triu
1989
1514
199.1
1990
2617
468.4
1991
3917
581.4
1992
5446
805.7
1993
6153
843.9
1994
6949
866.8
1995
7652
1033.1
1996
8705
1369.1
1997
9638
1423.4
1998
12145
1232.2
1999
14882
2091.6
2000
15424
3502.7
2001
16731.6
3125.6
2002
16876.4
3270
2003
17142.5
3821
2004
19500.6
5670.6
2005
17967
7373.5
Nm
Ngun www.gso.gov.vn
Trong nm 2006, doanh thu ton tp on Du kh Quc gia Vit
Nam t 180.188 t ng (tng ng 11 t USD), bng 168,7% k
hoch nm, tng 17,5% so vi c ng k v chim xp x 18% GDP ca c
nc. Kim ngch xut khu du th t trn 8,3 t USD. Tp on cng
np ngn sch Nh nc 80.060 t ng, bng 175% k hoch nm, tng
34
8000
7000
1000T
20000
6000
5000
15000
4000
10000
Lng Du XK 1000T
Kim Ngch XK
3000
2000
5000
1000
0
0
1989 1990 19911992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005
Nm
Ngun : www.gso.gov.vn
Trong nm 2008, cng ty ny t mc doanh thu trn 250.000 t
ng. Kim ngch xut khu t mc k lc mi 11,15 t USD, bng 146,7%
k hoch nm 2008, tng 26,7% so vi nm 2007, chim trn 18% tng kim
ngch xut khu c nc. Trong nm 2008, cng tc pht trin m v khai
35
37
1. Hi quy m hnh 1:
Hi quy theo phng php OLS qua Eviews c bng kt qu:
Dependent Variable: LNKIMNGHACHXK
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/03/09 Time: 13:22
Sample: 1991 2005
Included observations: 15
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNLUONGXK
0.433774
0.423044
1.025365
0.3272
LNTYGIA1
-3.470156
1.292724
-2.684375
0.0212
LNTYGIA
-0.251239
0.093232
-2.694786
0.0209
17.28028
8.095532
2.134546
0.0561
R-squared
0.943588
7.522896
Adjusted R-squared
0.928202
0.783773
S.E. of regression
0.210012
-0.060121
0.485158
Schwarz criterion
0.128692
Log likelihood
4.450909
F-statistic
61.33085
Durbin-Watson stat
1.221441
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Kim nh gi thit :
H0 :
H:
0
0
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNLUONGXK
0.433774
0.423044
1.025365
0.3272
LNTYGIA1
-3.470156
1.292724
-2.684375
0.0212
LNTYGIA
-0.251239
0.093232
-2.694786
0.0209
17.28028
8.095532
2.134546
0.0561
40
H0 : R2
H : R2
4 1,15 4 )
;
= ( f 0(.05
= f 0(.305,11) ;
) = (3.59;
61.33085
41
2. Hi quy m hnh 2:
Dependent Variable: LNKIMNGHACHXK
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/03/09 Time: 13:29
Sample: 1991 2005
Included observations: 15
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA
-0.243517
0.093126
-2.614929
0.0226
LNTYGIA1
-4.745411
0.353350
-13.42976
0.0000
25.40596
1.657980
15.32345
0.0000
R-squared
0.938196
7.522896
Adjusted R-squared
0.927895
0.783773
S.E. of regression
0.210462
-0.102171
0.531529
Schwarz criterion
0.039439
Log likelihood
3.766284
F-statistic
91.08066
Durbin-Watson stat
1.193513
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
42
Kim nh gi thit :
H0 :
H:
0
0
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA
-0.243517
0.093126
-2.614929
0.0226
LNTYGIA1
-4.745411
0.353350
-13.42976
0.0000
25.40596
1.657980
15.32345
0.0000
Kim nh gi thit :
H0 : R2
H :R
0
0
43
Min bc b
W
=( f 0(.3051,15 3) ;
2 ,12)
=( f 0(.05
;
)=(3.89;
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA1
-1.101823
1.007014
-1.094148
0.2937
13.24029
3.301117
4.010853
0.0015
R-squared
0.084324
9.632726
Adjusted R-squared
0.013887
0.631202
S.E. of regression
0.626804
2.027200
5.107482
Schwarz criterion
2.121607
Kim nh gi thit :
H0 :
H:
0
0
44
Ta c DL(3-1,15)=0.946
DU(3-1,15)=1.543
0
du
dL
4-d u
4-d L
lntygia+
F-statistic
2.768337
Probability
0.124343
3.367144
Probability
0.066509
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LNKIMNGHACHXK
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/03/09 Time: 15:14
Sample: 1991 2005
Included observations: 15
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA
0.365000
0.375924
0.970942
0.3524
LNTYGIA1
6.612559
6.834358
0.967546
0.3541
45
-26.75476
31.38794
-0.852390
0.4122
FITTED^2
0.159473
0.095847
1.663832
0.1243
R-squared
0.950622
7.522896
Adjusted R-squared
0.937156
0.783773
S.E. of regression
0.196482
-0.193314
0.424657
Schwarz criterion
-0.004501
Log likelihood
5.449856
F-statistic
70.59107
Durbin-Watson stat
1.374475
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Gi nh cc h s ca m hnh trn ln lt l
K :
H0 :
H:
1
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
i.
0
0
TCK : Fqs =
)=(4.64;
R2
m
1 R32
n k
= F-statistic=2.768337<Fqs=4.6
cng khng b tc ng. Xut khu khng b nh hng nhng nhp khu
thit b khai thc hay xng du ch bin li din bin c li cho doanh
nghip do Chnh ph trc tip iu hnh. V vy, doanh nghip s khuyn
khch nhp khu xng du hay thit b phc v cho thm d khai thc.
48
M hnh
tng th
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA1
-7.775355
2.685698
-2.895096
0.0134
66.89754
20.70202
3.231450
0.0072
LNKIMNGACHXK
-1.490593
0.570032
-2.614929
0.0226
R-squared
0.416700
9.632726
Adjusted R-squared
0.319484
0.631202
S.E. of regression
0.520700
1.709572
3.253544
Schwarz criterion
1.851182
F-statistic
4.286308
Prob(F-statistic)
0.039387
Log likelihood
-9.821789
Durbin-Watson stat
2.362284
hi quy
(PRM)
:
Lntygia=+blnkimngachxk+clntygia1+Ui (1).
M hnh hi quy mu:(SRM)
Lntygia=66.89754-7.775355lntygia1-1.490593lnkimngachxk+ei
Vi ngha:
b= -7.775355 c ngha l nu tygia1 gim 1 % th tygia tng 7.75355
%
c= -1.490593 c ngha l tygia tng 1 % th kimngachxk gim
1.490593 %
1. Kim nh H s vi mc ngha 5%:
Kim nh gi thit :
H0 :
H:
0
0
49
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA1
-7.775355
2.685698
-2.895096
0.0134
66.89754
20.70202
3.231450
0.0072
LNKIMNGACHXK
-1.490593
0.570032
-2.614929
0.0226
H0 : R2
H :R
0
0
=( f 0(.3051,15 3) ;
2 ,12)
;
) =( f 0(.05
) =(3.89;
50
du
dL
4-d u
4-d L
lnkimngachxk+
Ta rt R23 t m hnh mi
51
42.57857
Probability
0.000043
23.74881
Probability
0.000001
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LNTYGIA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/10/09 Time: 20:20
Sample: 1991 2005
Included observations: 15
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNTYGIA1
314.4212
49.39343
6.365648
0.0001
-2509.060
394.8907
-6.353809
0.0001
LNKIMNGACHXK
60.48920
9.502322
6.365729
0.0001
FITTED^2
2.135442
0.327260
6.525225
0.0000
R-squared
0.880245
9.632726
Adjusted R-squared
0.847585
0.631202
S.E. of regression
0.246424
0.259651
0.667972
Schwarz criterion
0.448465
Log likelihood
2.052615
F-statistic
26.95143
Durbin-Watson stat
2.524843
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000023
Gi nh cc h s ca m hnh trn ln lt l
K :
H0 :
H:
1
2
1
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
i.
0
0
TCK : Fqs =
)=(4.64;
R2
m
1 R32
n k
= F-statistic=42.57857>Fqs=4.64
5. D bo
12
Forecast: LNTYGIAF
Actual: LNTYGIA
Forecast sample: 1991 2005
Included observations: 15
11
10
0.465728
0.347609
3.492749
0.024140
0.000000
0.215419
0.784581
7
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
LNTYGIAF
Kt lun :
Kt qu t m hnh 3 thu c v qua cc kim nh cho thy :
- Cc h s hi quy ca bin lntygia1 ( t gi thc t) v lnkimngachXK
u c ngha thng k tc c s tc ng thc t ca kim ngch xut khu
du v t gi thc t ln bin t gi danh ngha.
- C s tc ng ngc chiu nhau gia bin t gi danh ngha
tygia v tygia1 iu ny tuy tri vi l thuyt kinh t nhng c gii thch
bi 2 xu hng ti tnh hnh thc t Vit Nam khi m khong cch gia
GDP sc mua tung ng v M ngy cng thu hp trong khi t gi dang
ngha VND do NHTW quy nh bin ng theo bin cng c khuynh
hng tng ln v vi mc gi tht ca mnh. V 2 l do trn nn xut hin
s bin ng tri chiu ny.
- C s tc ng tri chiu nhau gia kim ngch xut khu du v t gi
danh ngha iu ny l ph hp vi l thuyt cho rng vic tng cng xut
khu gp phn lm tng gi ng ni t tc lm gim t gi hi oi danh
ngha E v ngc li.
53
54
LI KT
Trong qu trnh nghin cu v s tc ng ln nhau ca t gi
USD/VND v kim ngch xut khu du th ca Vit Nam ly s liu mu 15
nm (1990-2005) vi phng php p dng kinh t lng nhm lng ha
mi quan h gia hai bin s kinh t trn, nhm tc gi t c mt s kt
qu sau:
- Tn ti mi quan h tc ng ca t gi danh ngha v t gi thc t
ln kim ngch xut khu du th di biu hin ca tng v phn trm ca
cc bin t gi nh hng ln tng v phn trm ca kim ngch xut khu
du th.
- T gi hi oi danh ngha v t gi hi oi thc t tc ng ln kim
ngch xut khu du theo hng tri chiu nghch bin , vi kho st mu
trong vng 15 nm , kt qu t m hnh 2 minh ha cho mi quan h ny qua
cc kim nh vi mc ngha 5% cho thy cha c c s bc b tnh
ng n ca dng hm v cc h s hi quy .
- Tn ti mi quan h theo chiu hng ngc li ca s tc ng ca
kim ngch xut khu du th v t gi thc t ln t gi danh ngha v mt
tng phn trm minh ho bi m hnh 3.
- S tc ng ca kim ngch xut khu du ln t gi l mt s tc
ng tri chiu vi kho st mu trong vng 15 nm , qua gii thch c
phn no vai tr quan trng ca kim ngch xut khu du t lu chim t
trng ln trong quan h xut nhp nhu ca Vit Nam.
Do hn ch v khun kh ti v thi gian nghin cu, ti vn cn
tn ti nhng hn ch nh: cha cp ti gii php v vic iu hnh t gi
nhm nng cao kim ngch xut khi ca Vit Nam i vi mt hng du th.
55
56
58