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Chng 1 NHNG VN CHUNG V THNG K HC

B mn Aug 2009-IDACA tch Thng k Phn Trng H Thng mi

S tn ch: 3 (42.6.12) Gio trnh:

L thuyt :- L thuyt thng k (HTM,


H KTQD) - Nguyn l thng k kinh t (H KT TPHCM) Bi tp: BT Nguyn l Thng k KT
Ging vin:
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Ths. L Hng Vn 0906 561 861 email: hongvanpttk@gmail.com

Danh mc ti tho lun

Nhng vn c bn ca iu tra thng k. Vn dng


xy dng 1 phng n iu tra c th Nhng vn c bn ca phn t thng k. Vn dng trong thc t Cc phng php biu hin xu hng bin ng ca hin tng. Vn dng trong thc t Phng php tnh ch s trong thng k. Vn dng ch s trong phn tch bin ng ca hin tng (phng n tnh ch s gi tiu dng v dch v CPI)
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NI DUNG

I. i tng nghin cu ca thng k hc II. Mt s khi nim thng dng trong thng k III. Thang o trong thng k IV. Qu trnh nghin cu thng k V. T chc cng tc thng k Vit Nam

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Thng k l g?

Ngha th nht: thng k l cc con s c ghi


chp phn nh cc hin tng t nhin, k thut, kinh t, x hi VD: S trn bo, t l mc bnh, dn s, GDP, sn lng sn phm,

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Thng k l g? (tip)

Ngha th hai:
Thng k l h thng cc PP c s dng thu thp, x l, phn tch cc con s (mt lng) ca hin tng s ln tm hiu bn cht v tnh quy lut vn c ca chng (mt cht) trong iu kin thi gian v a im c th. VD: nh gi v dn s phi thu thp v phn tch s liu v gii tnh, tui, ngh

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I. i tng NC ca thng k hc
1.1 S lc s ra i v pht trin ca thng k hc Thi c i v phong kin Vic ghi chp hoc ng k k khai c tnh cht thng k nh k khai nhn khu, lao ng Cui TK XVII Nhu cu ghi chp: gi c, dn s, NLSX H.Conhring (c, 1606-1681) ging dy pp nghin cu XH da vo s liu iu tra

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I. i tng nghin cu (tip)


1.2 i tng nghin cu ca TK hc Thng k hc nghin cu mt lng (trong mi lin h mt thit vi mt cht) ca cc hin tng kinh t x hi s ln trong iu kin thi gian v a im c th. Lng ho cc hin tng thnh cc con s S dng cc cng c thng k x l mt lng ca hin
tng Tm hiu v nhn thc ng n bn cht v quy lut vn ng ca n.
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I. i tng nghin cu (tip)


Mt cch khi qut, Thng k hc nghin cu ?

- Nghin cu cc hin tng KT XH


- Nghin cu quy lut s lng - Nghin cu hin tng s ln - Nghin cu tt c cc vn trn trong iu kin c th v thi gian v khng gian.

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I. i tng nghin cu (tip)


(1) TK ch yu nghin cu cc hin tng v qu trnh KT XH, bao gm

Hin tng - qu trnh ti SX XH

Hin tng qu trnh dn s

Hin tng v i sng vt cht v tinh thn ca ngi dn

Hin tng qu trnh chnh tr - x hi

I. i tng nghin cu (tip)

TK nghin cu quy lut s lng TK nghin cu mt lng trong mi lin h mt thit vi mt cht; TK dng con s, s lng biu hin bn cht v tnh quy lut ca hin tng; Con s TK lun c ni dung kinh t c th.
(2)

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I. i tng nghin cu (tip)


(3) TK nghin cu hin tng s ln

Hin tng s ln l tng th cc hin tng


c bit trong mi quan h hu c vi nhau. TK nghin cu hin tng s ln l ch yu nhng vn c th nghin cu hin tng c bit

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Quy lut s ln???

KN: L mt qui lut ca ton hc Khi xem xt cc biu hin ca s vt hin tng
ti mc y th bn cht ca hin tng s c bc l r
Chnh lch do cc tc
ng ngu nhin

Nhn t
bn cht Nhn t

HT KT-XH

ngu nhin

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I. i tng nghin cu (tip)


(4) TK nghin cu cc vn trn trong iu kin c th v thi gian v khng gian

Hin tng KT XH s ln m TK nghin cu phi l hin tng xc nh, c th

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II. Mt s khi nim thng dng


2.1. Tng th v n v tng th

Tng th thng k l hin tng s ln bao


gm nhng n v (hoc phn t) cu thnh hin tng cn c quan st v phn tch mt lng ca chng Mi phn t (hay n v) c bit to thnh tng th gi l n v tng th V d:
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Tng th v n v tng th

Phn loi Cn c vo s nhn bit cc n v tng th Tng th bc l: l tng th gm cc n v c th trc tip quan st hoc nhn bit c Tng th tim n: l tng th gm cc n v khng trc tip quan st hoc nhn bit c, mun xc nh phi thng qua cc bin php trung gian
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Tng th v n v tng th (tip)

Cn c c vo mc ch nghin cu Tng th ng cht: bao gm cc n v


ging nhau v c im ch yu lin quan n mc ch nghin cu Tng th khng ng cht: bao gm cc n v c nhiu c im ch yu khc nhau (khc nhau v loi hnh, v nhng c im ch yu c lin quan n mc ch nghin cu)
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Tng th v n v tng th (tip)

Tng th thng k c th l hu hn hoc v hn, khi xc nh tng th thng k phi gii hn v thc th, gii hn v thi gian v khng gian (tng th g, u, thi gian no)

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II. Mt s khi nim thng dng (tip)


2.2. Mu Mu l mt s n v c chn ra t tng th chung

Tng th
a b cd
ef gh i jk l m n o p q rs t u v w

Mu
b
gi o r

c
n u

x y
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II. Mt s khi nim thng dng (tip)

2.3. Tiu thc thng k (c im Characterictis) Tiu thc thng k l cc c im ca n v tng th c chn ra nghin cu V d: Phn loi

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Tiu thc thng k (tip)

Theo hnh thc biu hin Tiu thc thuc tnh: l tiu thc phn nh
tnh cht ca n v tng th, thng tin khng c biu hin bng con s Tiu thc s lng: l tiu thc c biu hin trc tip thnh con s, c trng quan st c bng cch cn, o, ong, m Note: Tiu thc thay phin
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Tiu thc thng k (tip)

Theo thi gian v khng gian Tiu thc thi gian: nu hin tng kinh t x
hi theo thi gian (nm, thng, ngy, gi) Vd: Dn s VN vo 0 gi 1/4/2009 l 85.789.573 ngi Tiu thc khng gian: nu phm vi lnh th ca i tng nghin cu. Nhng biu hin ca n c ch ra nh s phn nh v mt qun l hnh chnh hoc theo iu kin t nhin phn vng kinh t
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Tiu thc thng k (tip)

Theo mi quan h
Vd:

Tiu thc nguyn nhn Tiu thc kt qu

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II. Mt s khi nim thng dng (tip)

2.4. Ch tiu thng k

Ch tiu thng k phn nh mt lng gn


vi mt cht ca cc hin tng trong iu kin c th v thi gian v khng gian Ch tiu c 2 mt
(1) Mt KN (hay ni dung) (2) Mt mc (hay con s ca ch tiu)
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Ch tiu thng k (tip)

Phn loi Cn c vo tnh cht: Ch tiu khi lng: biu hin quy m, khi lng ca hin tng nghin cu (tng sn lng, tng chi ph, s nhn khu..) Ch tiu cht lng: biu hin tnh cht, trnh ph bin, quan h so snh ca hin tng nghin cu
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Ch tiu thng k (tip)

Cn c vo biu hin Ch tiu hin vt: biu hin bng n v t nhin (km, ci,) Ch tiu gi tr: biu hin bng n v tin t

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III. Cc loi thang o 3.1. Thang o nh danh (Nominal scale) Thang o nh danh c p dng i vi cc tiu thc thuc tnh, c phn bit bng cch nh s theo quy c. Cc con s 1,2,3.. y ch thay th cho mi loi d liu, cc php tnh i vi chng l v ngha. VD: tiu thc gii tnh c hai loi Nam v N

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III. Cc loi thang o (tip)

3.2. Thang o th bc (Ordinal scale) Thang o th bc c p dng i vi cc tiu thc thuc tnh, gia cc biu hin tiu thc c quan h th bc, hn km. Tuy nhin s hn km ny l bao nhiu th khng xc nh c th VD: Hun chng hng nht, nh, ba; hc lc; bc th,
phn loi ging vin: GS, PGS, Ging vin chnh, ging vin; s hi lng ca khch hng v mt loi sn phm: rt hi lng, hi lng, khng hi lng, rt khng hi lng)
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III. Cc loi thang o (tip) 3.3. Thang o khong (Interval scale) c s dng cho cc loi tiu thc s lng, l loi thang o c cc khong cch u nhau gip ta o lng mc khc bit gia cc n v. Vd: Nhit trong ngy, tui, Cc php tnh i vi cc con s ny c ngha v c th tnh cc c trng ca chng nh phng sai, s bnh qun

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III. Cc loi thang o (tip)


3.4. Thang o t l (Ratio scale) c s dng cho cc loi tiu thc s lng. Ta c th o lng cc biu hin ca tiu thc v thc hin cc php tnh vi tr s o.

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IV. Qu trnh nghin cu thng k

Thu thp thng tin


(iu tra thng k)

X l thng tin
(Tng hp t/k)

Din gii, phn tch thng tin (Phn tch v d on thng k)

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V. T chc cng tc thng k VN

H thng thng k nh nc Tng cc Thng k Cc thng k tnh, thnh ph Phng thng k cp huyn Cn b thng k ti x, phng H thng thng k ngnh Thng k cc B, Tng cc Thng k cc Tng cng ty, Cng ty Thng k cc n v c s: XN, ca hng
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