Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Tn cng trnh:
Mc lc
Mc lc....................................................................................................................................... 2
Danh mc t vit tt ................................................................................................................. 5
Danh mc bng ......................................................................................................................... 6
Danh mc hnh, biu ........................................................................................................... 7
Li m u ................................................................................................................................ 8
Chng 1: Nhng vn l lun c bn v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v
cho vay (S&Ls) ........................................................................................................................ 13
1.1 Tng quan v Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) .............................................. 13
1.1.1 Khi nim.............................................................................................................. 13
1.1.2 c im ............................................................................................................... 14
1.1.2.1 Tnh tng h ................................................................................................. 14
1.1.2.2 Tnh tch ly ................................................................................................... 15
1.1.2.3 Tnh a phng ............................................................................................. 15
1.1.2.4 Tnh phi li nhun .......................................................................................... 15
1.1.2.5 Mong mun s hu mt ngi nh l ng lc quan trng ca cc thnh vin
.................................................................................................................................... 16
1.1.3 Chc nng ............................................................................................................. 16
1.1.3.1 Chc nng tp hp, qun l, phn phi cc khon ng gp ......................... 16
1.1.3.2 Chc nng trung gian thanh ton ................................................................... 17
1.1.3.3 Chc nng trung gian tn dng ....................................................................... 17
1.1.4 Vai tr ................................................................................................................... 18
1.1.4.1 Gip nhng ngi lao ng c mt cuc sng tt p hn ........................... 18
1.1.4.2 Kch thch s pht trin ca th trng nh ................................................. 18
1.1.4.3 Khuyn khch thi quen tch ly, tit kim trong nhn dn ........................... 19
1.1.4.4 Tn dng mi khon vn nhn ri u t sinh li..................................... 19
1.1.5 C ch hot ng .................................................................................................... 20
1.1.5.1 Tch ly trc, s dng sau ............................................................................... 20
Danh mc t vit tt
Danh mc t vit tt ting Anh
Ch vit tt
Ting Anh
Ting Vit
S&Ls
FSLIC
Federal
Savings
and
Insurance Corporation
FIRREA
Financial
Institutions
ti chnh
GNP
GDP
CPI
Ch s gi tiu dung
Ting Vit
VN
Vit Nam
HN
H Ni
HCM
H Ch Minh
NHNN
Ngn hng Nh nc
NHTM
Danh mc bng
Bng 1: S liu v tng ti sn ca S&Ls v GDP ca M t nm 1940 n 1989 (tnh theo
triu USD) ................................................................................................................................. 25
Bng 2: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1888, 1900 v 1914 ...................... 47
Bng 3: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1914, 1924 v 1930 ...................... 48
Bng 4: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1930, 1937 v 1945 ...................... 48
Bng 5: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1945, 1952, 1959 v 1965 ............ 49
Bng 6: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1965, 1970, 1974 v 1979 ............ 50
Bng 7: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls b ph sn so vi s liu chung ca ngnh
trong nhng nm 80 ca th k XX........................................................................................... 52
Bng 8: S liu v GDP v t trng ng gp ca ngnh xy dng vo GDP ca VN nm
2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 .................................................................................................. 65
Bng 9: S liu v tc tng trng GDP v ngnh xy dng VN giai on 2005 - 2010... 65
Bng 10: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thi gian d kin mua nh ........................................... 69
Bng 11: Kt qu iu tra kho st v ngn sch d kin mua nh.......................................... 70
Bng 12: Kt qu iu tra kho st v cc ngun vn s dng ti tr cho vic mua nh ... 70
Bng 13: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thu nhp/thng ............................................................. 72
Bng 14: Trnh by m hnh tch ly c nhn .......................................................................... 77
Bng 15: Trnh by cc dng tin S&Ls thu c trong mt nm ........................................... 78
Bng 16: Qu trnh tch ly i vi cc thnh vin khng vay vn ......................................... 80
Bng 17: Tm tt qui trnh i vi m hnh thnh vin khng vay vn .................................. 80
Bng 18: Trnh by khon thu t cc thnh vin trong 9 nm u tin .................................... 82
Bng 19: Tnh li vay ca 4 ngi vay vn u tin vo cui nm th nht ........................... 84
Bng 20: Trnh by s li vay phi tr ca nhng ngi vay trong 8 nm u ....................... 85
Bng 21: Trnh by s tin thu c t li vay ........................................................................ 86
Bng 22: Trnh by vic cp vn cho 14 thnh vin cn li .................................................... 87
Bng 23: Trnh by vic phn b li nhun cn li cho cc thnh vin................................... 88
Bng 24: Tm tt qu trnh ca m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn: .......................................... 90
Bng 25: Danh sch 100 ngi tham gia tr li phiu iu tra ................................................ 99
Bng 26: M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn ........................................................................ 106
Bng 27: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc thnh vin) ...................... 109
Bng 28: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc thnh vin
vay vn) .................................................................................................................................. 114
Bng 29: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li) .......................................................... 116
Li m u
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti
S pht trin mnh m ca nn kinh t VN trong vng mi nm tr li y
khin cho mc thu nhp ca ngi dn c ci thin mt cch ng k; v thc y
tc th ha din ra mnh m. Nhu cu mua sm nh, c bit hai thnh ph ln
l HN v thnh ph HCM, cng v vy m gia tng nhanh chng1. Tuy nhin, th
trng bt ng sn VN cn cha hon thin, i km vi hin tng thng tin bt
cn xng, nn nh n tay ngi dn b i gi ln rt cao so vi gi tr thc. Cn b
cng chc hoc nhn vin vi mc lng trung bnh khng th trong thi gian ngn t
ti tr cho vic mua nh, m thng phi tm n vay vn ti cc NHTM. Vi mc li
sut cho vay mua nh cn kh cao, ph bin trong khong 18-19%/nm nh hin nay,
th ngi vay vn s phi tr mt khon tin li ln n 1 t ng, cho mt khon vay
ch khong 1.5 t ng trong vng 8 nm.V vy, VN, nhu cu pht trin thm nhng
hnh thc trung gian ti chnh mi c th h tr thng tin v a ra mc li sut hp l
hn cho nhng ngi mua nh l rt cao.
M hnh S&Ls (Savings and Loan Asociation S&Ls) xut hin kh ph bin
M t nhng nm 1930, v chng t c tnh u vit ca mnh trong vic h tr
nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp trung bnh mua hoc sa cha nh , thng qua vic
tp trung cc khon tch ly nh ca cc thnh vin v u t vo nhng knh u t
an ton c sinh li.Cc thnh vin sau c vay li vn ca hip hi vi mc li
sut u i hn ca cc trung gian ti chnh khc, c bit l cc NHTM.
VN hin nay, nhu cu mua nh cn kh ln; trong khi ngi c nhu cu
mua nh hu nh ch tm n cc NHTM tm kim cc dch v ti chnh nh dch v
1
cho vay v cp tn dng mua nh tr gp. Do vy, s pht trin ca S&Ls c k vng
s mang li cho ngi dn thm nhiu s h tr v thng tin v ti chnh. Tuy nhin,
trc khi cc m hnh ny c ng dng vo th trng VN, cn phi c mt nghin
cu nh gi tng th v cc u nhc im, iu kin pht trin v cc xut
thay i cc hip hi ny c th hot ng hiu qu trong iu kin kinh t, x hi
VN. Xut pht t thc t , nhm nghin cu la chn M hnh hot ng ca
Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh : Kinh nghim ca M v
kh nng hnh thnh ti Vit Nam lm ti cho cng trnh nghin cu khoa hc ca
mnh.
Frederic S. Mishkin (2007), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial markets, 8 th edn, Pearson
Education, Inc, Hong Kong
3
Jeff Madura (2009), Financial Markets and Institutions, 9 th edn, South Western Cengage Learning, Hong Kong
4
Ely Bert & Vicki Vanderhoff (1991), Lessons Learned from the S&LS Debacle: The Price of Failed Public
Policy, bo co s 108. Lewisville, Tex.: Vin nghin cu chnh sch
5
Maurice Weinrobe (2003), Savings and Loan Demand for Liquid Assets: Theory, Evidence and Implications for
Policy, nghin cu do Federal Home Loan Bank Board ti tr
3. Mc tiu nghin cu
Trn c s nghin cu l lun v kinh nghim hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim
v cho vay ti M, mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l xut c m hnh hot ng
S&Ls d kin cho iu kin ca Vit Nam gp phn thc y s pht trin ca th
trng nh ti VN.
4. i tng v phm vi nghin cu
i tng v phm vi nghin cu ca ti l m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi
tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti th trng M v Vit Nam
Mu kho st: ngi lao ng trong cc doanh nghip trn a bn HN
5. Phng php nghin cu
Phn tch ti liu: nghin cu cc ngun thng tin, d liu c trong sch v,
cc bi bo, cng trnh khoa hc trc v thng tin trn mng Internet lm c
s cho l lun v chng minh cc lp lun.
iu tra bng cu hi: lp bng cu hi kho st thc trng mc sng, mc
thu nhp v nhu cu mua nh ca ngi lao ng.
10
11
7.Kt cu ca ti
Ngoi li m u, kt lun, ni dung chnh ca ti nghin cu gm 3 chng:
Chng 1: Nhng vn l lun c bn v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit
kim v cho vay (S&Ls)
Chng 2: Kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho
vay ti M
Chng 3: Kh nng hnh thnh m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v
cho vay S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti VN
12
Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v vn
hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng II, tr. 10
13
Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v vn
hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng II, tr. 9
14
(khng chp nhn cc khon ng gp qu cao so vi mc quy nh) ngn chn vic
mt s c nhn thu tm quyn li trong hip hi, dn n vic mt bnh ng.
1.1.2.2 Tnh tch ly
Ngun vn ca cc Hip hi ch yu n t cc khon ng gp tit kim nh
l hng thng ca cc thnh vin. S thnh cng sau ny ca cc S&Ls c coi l mt
minh chng tuyt vi cho tc dng ca cc khon tit kim c mc ch h thng, v
su xa hn l li ch ca thi quen tch ly. (Lu : S&Ls nhn mnh n thi quen
tch ly, mt mc cao hn l tit kim n thun, l vic u t cc khon tin d
ra mt cch an ton nhng vn sinh li, thay v ch ct gi cc khon tin mt ch)
1.1.2.3 Tnh a phng
Hot ng ca cc S&Ls ch c th tp trung phm vi a phng (c th M
th ch trong phm vi 1 bang). Thc t chng mnh rng mi n lc m rng phm
vi hot ng ca cc S&Ls ra ngoi bn knh khu vc trong cc thnh vin u quen
bit ln nhau , u t ra khng an ton hoc tht bi hon ton. Kt qu ny khng c
g l qu bt ng bi cc S&Ls c xy dng trn c s tnh tng h, tc l s h
tr ln nhau ca cc thnh vin. Vic m rng phm vi hot ng ca S&LS s khin
mi lin h gia cc thnh vin tr nn lng lo, hot ng ca S&Ls v th mt i tnh
m bo.
1.1.2.4 Tnh phi li nhun
Cc S&Ls hu ht u l cc hip hi hot ng phi li nhun.Cc thnh vin
ng cc khon tin hng thng khng phi hng li, m l mt cch tch ly c h
thng mua nh.Mc tiu ca S&Ls l h tr cc thnh vin mua (xy) c nh.Khi
mc ch ny t c, tc l mi thnh vin c tr gip mua nh, hip hi s t
ng gii tn.y chnh l c im phn bit S&Ls vi cc nh ch cho vay khc
15
16
Thng tin tham kho trn website www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association
9
Thng tin tham kho trn website www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association
17
1.1.4 Vai tr
1.1.4.1 Gip nhng ngi lao ng c mt cuc sng tt p hn
y l vai tr d nhn thy nht ca cc S&Ls i vi cc thnh vin ca
mnh.Vi mc ch nguyn thy ca mnh, S&LS gip cc thnh vin t c c m
c th s hu mt ngi nh cho ring mnh v gia nh. i vi nhiu ngi lao ng
ngho th y c th coi l mc tiu c i ca h. Hn na, vic s hu mt ngi nh
s l khi u ha hn cho mt cuc sng tt p hn (ch nhn ca n c th cho thu
hoc bt u cng vic kinh doanh ca ring h).
Ngay c khi cc thnh vin khng c nhu cu mua nh, th vic tham gia vo
S&Ls cng gip cho cc thnh vin tch ly c mt s vn trong mt thi gian ngn
hn khong thi gian m h phi t mnh tit kim.
1.1.4.2 Kch thch s pht trin ca th trng nh
S ra i ca cc S&Ls khin cho th trng nh tr nn si ng hn, bi gi
y nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp thp cng c nhu cu mua (xy dng ) nh .
Vo nhng nm 1840, hn mt na s nh ca thnh ph Philladenphia, bang
Pensylvania, Hoa K, c xy dng thng qua cc S&Ls. S thnh vng ca thnh
ph ny cho n nay vn c cho l nh mt phn tc ng tch cc ca cc hip hi
ny. V vy m Philadelphia cn c bit n vi ci tn: "Thnh ph ca nhng ngi
nh" (City of homes).10
Ngc li, trong thi k bng n v pht trin th v nh cui th k XIX,
do tc ng ca cuc Cch mng Cng nghip ln II, s lng cc S&Ls cng tng
mt cch t bin. iu ny cho thy vai tr to ln cng nh mi quan h cht ch ca
10
Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v
vn hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng IV, tr. 35
18
19
1.1.5 C ch hot ng
1.1.5.1Tch ly trc, s dng sau
Mt trong nhng c im ca cc S&Ls l tnh tch ly.Ngun vn ca S&Ls
khng phi sn c nh cc NHTM.V vy, cc thnh vin ca hip hi phi tch ly
trong mt thi gian nht nh mi c ngun vn tin hnh cho vay.
Tuy nhin, mi thnh vin khng nht thit phi tch ly c ton b s tin
cn thit trc khi c s dng. Do tnh tng tr, S&Ls cho php mt s thnh vin
c s dng vn trc khi vic tch ly hon thnh, vi iu kin h ng tr thm
mt mc li sut (hoc phn b ri ro). Mc li sut ny c coi l ph cc thnh
vin vay vn u tin s dng phn tch ly ca cc thnh vin khc.
1.1.5.2 Mc u tin s dng vn gim dn theo thi gian
Theo c ch ny, cc thnh vin vay vn u tin s phi tr mc li sut cao
nht.(Tin li c ng hng thng cng vi tin gc). Cng v sau, mc li sut vay
vn cng gim dn.V nhng thnh vin nhn tin cui cng vo ngy o hn s
khng phi chu bt k mt mc li sut no. l do ngi s dng vn u tin c
mc ri ro thp nht, nn h phi chu mt mc li cao nht b li li th m
mnh c hng. Cn ngi s dng vn cui cng chu s ri ro cao nht, nn
khng phi tr li sut.
20
11
21
Khi hip hi tch ly s tin tr cho mi thnh vin theo mnh gi quy
nh trc ca c phiu, hip hi s gii tn. Phn li cn li (nu c sau khi tnh ton
cc chi ph khc) s c chia u cho cc c phiu.
Trong trng hp c thnh vin mun ngng tham gia hip hi, h s c
hon tr li ton b s tin ng gp h tch ly c v mt phn li nhun (tuy
nhin thp hn li nhun m cc thnh vin li s nhn c). Khon li nhun li
ca nhng thnh vin ngng tham gia trc thi hn cng s l mt khon thu nhp
ca hip hi.
Hnh 1: Minh ha m hnh hot ng mt ln ca S&Ls
22
khi m hnh u tin o hn nhng khng c nhu cu mua nh s tip tc tham gia
vo m hnh th hai. Cc m hnh nh vy c tip tc cho n khi ngi lao ng
khng cn nhu cu gi tin hoc mua nh.
Hnh 2: Minh ha m hnh hot ng ni tip ca S&Ls
23
24
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
Total
asset 1
5,672
6,011
6,109
6,604
7,458
8,747
10,202
11,687
101,400
126,700
161,900
198,600
219,800
223,000
222,200
244,100
GDP 2
25
Nm
Total
asset 1
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
13,028
14,650
16,846
19,164
22,585
26,638
31,736
37,719
GDP 2
269,100 267,200 293,700 339,300 358,300 379,300 380,400 414,700
Nm
Total
asset 1
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
42,655
47,907
54,978
63,401
71,314
81,889
1962
1963
93,390 107,390
GDP 2
437,400 461,100 467,200 506,600 526,400 544,800 585,700 617,800
Nm
Total
asset 1
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
GDP 2
663,600 719,100 787,700 832,400 909,800 984,400
Nm
Total
asset 1
1,038,3
00
1,126,8
00
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
243,100
271,900
295,500
338,200
391,900
459,200
1,237,900
1,382,300
1,499,500
1,637,700
1,824,600
2,030,100
GDP 2
26
Nm
Total
asset 1
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
523,600
579,300
629,800
663,800
707,600
773,400
2,293,800
2,562,200
2,788,100
3,126,800
3,253,200
3,534,600
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
902,000
948,200
961,800
974,300
932,000
755,700
3,930,900
4,217,500
4,460,100
4,736,400
5,100,400
5,482,100
GDP 2
Nm
Total
asset 1
GDP 2
: Tng ti sn ca cc S&Ls, bao gm: cc khon cho vay mua nh (mortgage loans
Sau khi chy d liu trn phn mm Eviews vi bin c lp l GDP v bin
ph thuc l ASSET (Total asset), ta thu c kt qu nh sau:
27
28
29
31
S&Ls nhiu hn v tng nhu cu vay mua nh . Tuy nhin, tng trng kinh t
thng i km vi lm pht, t l lm pht tng lm mt bng gi c trn th trng
tng v li sut tng. iu ny c th lm gim cu i vi cc khon vay tiu dng
ca dn c cng nh cc dng tin ca S&Ls. V vy, khi phn tch cc nhn t nh
hng n hot ng ca S&Ls, ta cn ch n mi lin h gia chng.
33
Chng 2: Kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti M
2.1 H thng c s php l ca M v S&Ls
o lut Corcoran (The Corcoran Act): c c quan lp php thng qua vo
thng 5 nm 1891. Trc , nm 1890, cuc hp ca Lin on cc hip hi xy dng
bang Ohio (Ohio Building Association League) thng nht v vic ku gi hi ng
lp php sp xp li cc lut hin hnh c lin quan n hot ng ca hip hi xy
dng cng nh b sung thm vo nhng thay i cn thit. Sau nhiu ln tho lun,
sa cha, o lut ny thng nht kin ca cc hip hi xy dng trn ton bang
v c c quan lp php thng qua. o lut ny tn ti trong sut 17 nm sau
m khng c bt c s thay i hay chnh sa no. Di tc ng ca cc iu khon
trong o lut, cc hip hi xy dng Ohio pht trin thnh vng v tng ti sn
ca h tng trng trn 300% trong vng 19 nm.
o lut Russell (The Russell Act): c c quan lp php thng qua vo nm
1909. Nm 1908, Lin on cc hip hi xy dng bang Ohio hp ti Youngstown
v ng rng: y l thi k pht trin mnh m ca cc hip hi xy dng v nhu
cu xy dng ang gia tng ng k, i hi cc hip hi phi c nhng ci tin v k
hoch v phng thc hot ng cng nh cc qui nh php l trc (c th l o
lut Corcoran) cn c iu chnh. 1 nm sau , 1909, nhng ni dung thay i
c chun b k lng, trnh v c chp thun bi c quan lp php, v c bit
n vi tn gi l o lut Russell.
o lut Stamp: do Quc hi ban hnh nm 1898 c iu khon qui nh : trng
hp cc c phiu v tri phiu c pht hnh bi cc hip hi hp tc xy dng v
cho vay (co-operative building and loan associations), cc hip hi xy dng v cho
vay v cc cng ty ch cung cp cc khon vay cho cc c ng, th s c min tr
thu.
34
35
Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Lch s kinh t M (Economic history of the United States), website
wikipedia.org truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 18/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_United_States
36
37
38
13
Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Thi k hong kim (Gilded Age), website wikipedia.org truy cp lc 02h00
ngy 18/4/2012, ng dn: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age
39
Nhng pht minh v ci tin mi trong lnh vc cng nghip, c bit l cng
nghip nng to cho s pht trin thn k ca nn kinh t M. Thi k ny nh
du s hon thin v pht trin nh cao ca mt nn kinh t cng nghip hin i.
Trong nhng nm 1870s n 1880s, kinh t M pht trin vi tc nhanh nht trong
lch s. V d t nm 1865 n 1898, sn lng la m tng 256%, sn lng ng tng
222%, chiu di ng st tng 567%. Hng lot cc tp on v t chc kinh t ra
i, cng vi nhng ci tin r rt trong m hnh qun l.
Biu 2: GNP thc t bnh qun u ngi giai on 1869 1918
(Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc thng k M v Cc d tr Lin bang M)
40
41
ngi lao ng n sau phi sinh sng trong iu kin cht hp. V th, h li
cng ny sinh nhu cu mua nh ci thin i sng hn.
Th hai, cng gii quyt vn va nu, hng lot cc d n xy dng nh
c a ra, km theo l nhu cu v vn u t ban u. Cc ch u t
v vy phi tn dng mi ngun vn c th, v sn sng i bng mt mc li
sut hp dn. y chnh l iu kin cc S&L pht huy c tnh nng tch
ly cc khon vn ca mnh.
Tng trng kinh t mi ch gii thch c s pht trin v s lng v quy m
ca S&Ls. Mun gii thch c ti sao cc S&Ls trong giai on ny li chuyn sang
m hnh ni tip th phi xt n s a dng trong thnh phn x hi.
Th nht, cc thnh phn x hi trong giai on ny khng cn ch n thun l
cng nhn v nng dn nh trong giai on 1830 1865. Trong cng mt thnh
ph, mt cng ng, hoc ngay c mt cng ty, c nhng tng lp xut thn,
nhu cu v thu nhp khc nhau. V vy, khng th xp tt c vo cng mt m
hnh hot ng mt ln; m phi phn loi v xp h vo cc m hnh hot ng
mt ln khc nhau.
Th hai, thu nhp c ci thin ng k, nhiu ngi nht l tng lp trung
lu khng ch c nhu cu mua nh (trn thc t c th h c nh ri) m cn
c nhu cu gi tin sinh li. Sau khi mt m hnh hot ng mt ln kt thc,
h s mun tip tc gi tin vo nhng m hnh tip sau ch hng li, m
khng phi ti tr mua nh na.
Th ba, nh s u t pht trin cc trng hc, th vin, bo tng v h thng
thng tin lin lc, nhn thc v hiu bit ca ngi dn thi k ny c
nng cao. V th, h c kh nng qun l, vn hnh cc m hnh hip hi
phc tp hn.
42
43
Trong sut thi k th chin, cc ngnh cng nghip M thay v sn xut hng
tiu dng chuyn sang u tin sn xut cho mc ch quc phng, cc nh sn xut t
chuyn sang sn xut xe tng, my bay chin u, cng nghip v kh pht trin mnh
m khin nc M c coi nh kho v kh ca th gii. Vi mc tng cu
tng ln mnh m, cc n lc kim sot gi c, kim sot nguyn vt liu, tr cp
lng, hn ch nh xy mi c tin hnh nhm gim p lc tng gi ln nn
kinh t. Theo thng k, GDP tng tng ti 56% trong 5 nm chin tranh 1940 1945.
44
trng mang li i sng thnh vng hn khin h c nim tin vo mt tng lai
n nh cho th h sau.
T cui thp k 60, c nhng kin cho rng tng trng kinh t ang c du
hiu chm li. v iu ny tr thnh s tht vo u nhng nm 70. Nn kinh t M
tng trng nhanh chng nh vo vic nhp khu du t t chc xut khu du OPEC.
Vic t chc ny t ngt tng gi du vo nm 1973 v lnh cm nhp khu du t
Iran mt trong nhng quc gia xut khu du ln nht cho th trng M by givo nm 1979 gy ra nhng c shock cung cho nn kinh t y nn kinh t ln nht
th gii vo tnh cnh va suy thoi va lm pht. Cng lc, cuc chin tranh Vit
Nam khin chnh ph M thm ht ngn sch trong nhiu nm lin, do , khng
th tip tc duy tr h thng Bretton Wood, xa b vic gn ng USD vi vng y
ng tin ny vo tnh trng mt gi. Nng xut lao ng gim, lm pht leo thang
t nh 20% vo thng 1/1981.
Nhm kch thch cc thnh t kinh t cnh tranh hiu qu hn nhm vt qua giai
on kh khn, Quc Hi M quyt nh d b kim sot vi mt s lnh vc. Bn
cnh vic ni lng cho cc nhm ngnh vn ti nhm hn ch chi ph sn xut v gp
45
phn tng nng sut lao ng, Quc Hi cn c bit to thun li cho S&Ls v cc
ngn hng vi o lut D b kim sot cc t chc nhn gi v ni lng kim sot
tin t ra i nm 1980 v lut Gam St. Germain nm 1982.
Bt chp chnh sch ti kha nhm kch cu kinh t ca tng thng Jimmy
Carter vo nm 1977, lm pht vn tip tc leo thang v ln n mc hai con s sau
cuc khng hong nng lng 1979. Nm 1981, tng thng mi c c Ronald Reagan
la chn s dng chnh sch ti kha kt hp vi kim sot cht ch chnh sch tin
t nhm vc dy nn kinh t - ct gim thu xung cn 25%. Bin php ny th hin
r hiu qu khi lm pht gim t 13.5% (1980) xung cn 3% (1983). GDP thc
tng tr li trong giai on 1980 1982, t l tht nghip d vn duy tr tng v t
nh im 10.8% (1982) nhng tt gim xung cn 6% vo nm 1989 v cn cn
thng mi ca M thng d tr li.
46
S lng S&Ls
Ti sn (000,000)
1888
3500
$300
1900
5356
$571
1914
6616
$1357
Ngun: Carroll D. Wright, Ninth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor: Building and
Loan Associations (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1894), 214; Josephine Hedges Ewalt, A
Business Reborn: The Savings and Loan Story, 1930-1960 (Chicago: American Savings and
Loan Institute Publishing Co., 1962), 391. (All monetary figures in this study are in current
USD.)
47
S lng S&Ls
Ti sn (000,000)
1914
6,616
$1,357
1924
11,844
$4,766
1930
11,777
$8,829
Ngun: Ewalt, A Business Reborn, 391, The Depression and Federal Regulation
Trong nhng nm 20, thnh cng ca S&L b kim hm li bi cuc i
khng hong. S&Ls, nh cc ngn hng, chu tn tht bi cc cho vay thua l, nhng
trong tng quan vi nhng nh ch ti chnh khc, S&Ls c xu hng sinh tn mnh
m hn hn. Bi cc ngn hng nm gi cc ti khon tin gi nn chu tc ng bi
ng thi rt tin, v h qu l t nm 1931 n 1932, gn 20% cc ngn hng ph sn
trong khi ch xp x 2% cc qu tch ly i mt vi tnh trng tng t. D s lng
S&Ls c st gim vo cui thp nin 30, song hot ng cng nhanh chng phc hi:
Bng 4: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1930, 1937 v 1945
Nm
S lng S&Ls
Ti sn(000,000)
1930
11,777
$8,829
1937
9,255
$5,682
1945
6,149
$8,747
Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1955 (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1955), 39.
Mc d s lng S&Ls ph sn t hn cc ngn hng, chng cng i mt vi
nhng thua l ln v gp vn v dng tin. H qu l, nhiu S&L phi xin tr
gip t chnh quyn lin bang. Nm 1932, Lin hip cc S&Ls thuyt phc quc hi
cho ra i mt ngn hng cho vay lin bang nhm tr gip h trong tnh cnh phi i
mt vi thiu ht vn. n 1934, h thng qun l lin bang v qu bo him tin gi
lin bang ra i.
48
Hai thp k sau th chin th hai l giai on thnh cng nht trong lch s cc
S&Ls. Quay tr v t chin trng, nhiu ngi tng mt thi phc v trong th chin
khao kht c li cuc sng trc y ca mnh dn ti s ra tng nhanh chng trong
s lng cc h gia nh, v s bng n dn s sau dn ti nhau cu ln v xy
nh (ch yu l vng ngoi ). S&Ls ti tr phn ln cho s bng n nhu cu ny
trong sut giai on thp k 40 n u nhng nm 60. S&Ls thm ch cn m rng
phm vi hot ng ca mnh sang cho vay tiu dng nhm gia tng thu nhp v nng
cao gi tr ti sn.
Cho n nm 1965, S&Ls kim sot 26% tng lng tit kim v cung cp
46% cc khon cho vay mua nh (tng trng r rt t mc 7% tng lng tit kim v
23% cc khon cho vay nm 1945):
Bng 5: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1945, 1952, 1959 v 1965
Nm
S lng S&Ls
Ti sn (000,000)
1945
6,149
$8,747
1952
6,004
$22,585
1959
6,223
$63,401
1965
6,071
$129,442
Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1966, (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1966)92-4.
Tuy nhin, s m rng ny li khng ng u. Hn 1/3 S&Ls c lng ti sn
t hn 5 triu USD, trong khi 100 S&Ls ln nht c ti sn ln ti 340 triu USD mi
hip hi v 3 S&L chm mc 5 t USD ti sn. S mt cn bng ny l do s m rng
ca mt s bang nht inh nh bang Caliornia, ngoi ra cn bi nhiu S&L la chn
gi vn bng hnh thc pht hnh c phiu i chng v tr thnh t chc i chng.
Xu hng gia tng li sut tr cho cc khon tit kim nhm thu ht cc khon tin gi
tr nn r rt n mc to nn mt giai on cnh tranh bng li sut gia cc
49
S lng S&Ls
Ti sn (000,000)
1965
6,071
$129,442
1970
5,669
$176,183
1974
5,023
$295,545
1979
4,709
$579,307
50
Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1980, (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1980)48-51.
R rng, S&Ls b tc ng bi nhng hn ch mang tnh chnh sch t chnh
quyn lin bang. iu ny c bit ng vi nhng S&L c quy m ln pha Ty nc
M mong mi s dng u th ca li sut nhm m bo tng trng ca mnh. ng
thi, nhng thay i ln trn th trng ti chnh, bao gm s st nhp ca cc i th
cnh tranh v s ra i ca cc cng ngh mi, thc y nhu cu xem xt li cc
quy nh lin bang qun l cc hip hi. Bt chp nhng n lc vn ng ci thin cc
vn bn lut vo thp nin 70, khng nhiu thay i c a ra.
Vo nm 1979 tnh hnh ti chnh ca S&Ls li mt ln na chu th thch bi
mc li sut cao, lm pht gia tng, v c bit l vic gi du m tng gp i. Nhn
thc c tc ng tiu cc ca nhng thay i t bin ny n s thnh bi ca hng
trm S&Ls, Quc hi cui cng i n quyt nh d b kim sot vi hot ng
ca cc hip hi ny. Vic Quc hi thng qua cc o lut (o lut D b kim sot
cc nh ch nhn tin gi v ni lng qun l tin t 1980 v Lut Garn-St. Germain
1982) khng ch cho php cc S&L cung cp cc sn phm tit kim a dng hn m
cn m rng r rt kh nng cho vay ca cc hip hi). Nhng thay i ny nhm cho
php S&L thot khi nhng vn kh khn, ng thi cng ln u tin th hin r
quan im ca chnh ph trong vic h tr cc S&L gia tng li nhun t gin tip
thc y s pht trin ca th trng nh v s hu nh ti M. Ngoi ra, cc S&L
cn c ni lng cc yu cu v s dng cc chnh sch k ton trong bo co tnh
hnh ti chnh, ng thi xa b nhng hn ch v ch s hu ca nh ch ny. Tuy
nhin, chnh nhng chnh sch ny sau li b coi l mt trong s nhng nguyn nhn
dn n s sp ca cc S&L:
51
S lng S&L
Ti sn (000,000)
Nm
ph sn
Tng s
Tng ti sn
S&L
ngnh (000,000)
1980-2
118
$43,101
1980
3,993
$603,777
1983-5
137
$39,136
1983
3,146
$813,770
1986-7
118
$32,248
3,274
$1,109,789
1988
205
$100,705
1988
2,969
$1,368,843
1989
327
$135,245
1989
2,616
$1,186,906
1985
Ngun: Statistics on failures: Norman Strunk and Fred Case, Where Deregulation
Went Wrong (Chicago: United States League of Savings Institutions, 1988), 10;
Lawrence White, The S&L Debacle: Public Policy Lessons for Bank and Thrift
Regulation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 150; Managing the Crisis: The
FDIC and RTC Experience, 19801994 (Washington, D.C.: Resolution Trust
Corporation, 1998), 795, 798; Historical Statistics on Banking, Bank and Thrift
Failures, FDIC web page http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob accessed 31 August 2000; Total
industry statistics: 1999 Fact Book: A Statistical Profile on the United States Thrift
Industry. (Washington, D.C.: Office of Thrift Supervision, June 2000), 1, 4.
S lng cc hip hi ph sn u thp k 80 l ln nht k t cuc i Suy
Thoi m nguyn nhn ch yu l bi nhng khon thua l ln pht sinh t vic li
sut t ngt tng cao. K c sau khi mc li sut n nh v nn kinh t phc hi
tr li vo gia nhng nm 1980, s lng cc hip hi bt buc phi ng ca vn
tip tc gia tng. Theo gii phn tch nhng v ph sn trong giai on sau ny l bi
nhng sai st v gian ln ti cc hip hi. V ph sn u tin c cho l do gian ln
xy ra ti Empire Savings of Mesquite vo thng 3 nm 1984 gy ra thit hi gn
52
300 triu USD. Sau l Lincoln Savings and Loan ng u bi Charles Keating vi
thit hi ln n hn 2 t USD. Theo thng k chnh thc ca chnh ph M, n cui
thp k 80, nhng sai st v gian ln cc S&L ln n hn 75 t USD. D phn
ln cc S&Ls c T chc bo him tit kim v cho vay lin bang (FSLIC) bo
him nhng thit hi vi nn kinh t vn l rt ln.
Nm 1989, cui cng chnh quyn lin bang cng a ra gii php i vi cuc
khng hong S&L. Thng 8, Quc hi thng qua lut ci cch cc nh ch ti chnh
(FIRREA) nhm mt ln na ti lp cc bin php qun l. FIRREA xa b Ban cho
vay mua nh Lin Bang v thay i cc quy nh qun l S&L thnh S gim st cc
hip hi tit kim v cho vay. ng thi cng xa b FSLIC v chuyn chc nng bo
him tin gi cho FDIC. Theo nhng quy nh mi, S&Ls phi p ng nhng chun
mc nht nh v phi vt qua bi kim tra cht lng trong bt buc ti thiu
70% ti sn ca cc S&L phi lin quan n bt ng sn.
Cho n u thp k 90, khi cuc khng hong S&Ls qua i, thit hi t nhng
v sp ca nh ch ny c coi l ln nht trong lch s Hoa K. Trong giai on
t 1980 ti 1993, 1,307 S&Ls vi ti sn ln ti 603 t USD ph sn, lm thit hi
ca ngi ng thu gn 500 t USD. Cng cn lu rng S&L khng phi l nh
ch duy nht chu thit hi trong giai on 1980s, thp k ny cng chng kin s sp
ca 1,530 ngn hng thng mi qun l hn 230 t USD ti sn.
Nguyn nhn khin nhiu hip hi tht bi n vy trong giai on 1980 nm
ngay trong vic nh ch ny c d b kim sot. S&Ls vn l t chc ti chnh
chuyn nhn cc khon tin gi di hn cho vay th chp di hn. Khi cc hip hi
bt u mt vn vo cc ti khon tin gi hng mc li sut cao, vic d b kim
sot li tp trung vo vic ni lng cc hn ch vi ngi gi tin nh ch ny c
th a ra mc li sut cao hn na. Tuy nhin, cc hip hi vn b hn ch trong vic
53
55
Trong thi k u pht trin cc S&Ls, ngi lao ng ch c nhu cu tham gia
hip hi mua nh nn m hnh hot ng mt ln kh ph bin. Sau , khi cc
S&Ls c pht trin rng ri hn, ngi lao ng i khi khng c nhu cu vay tin
mua nh, m ch mun tch ly tin v hng mt khon li an ton. V vy,cn thit
phi c mt m hnh mi p ng nhu cu tham gia rng ri ca mi ngi
2.5.2 nh gi m hnh ni tip
M hnh ni tip khc phc c nhc im v chi ph v thi gian tham
gia ca m hnh hot ng mt ln. Nh vy, tt c nhng ngi lao ng c nhu cu
u c th tm thy mt hip hi ph hp vi iu kin thi gian v c chi ph bt u
thp tham gia, khng phi ch i qu lu trc khi mt hip hi mi ra i. i
vi nhng ngi lao ng thc s c nhu cu mua nh th m hnh ni tip s gip h
sm thc hin c gic m ca mnh. Cn i vi nhng ngi ch mun hng li
th cng tm c mt t chc n nh tch ly v tng thm thu nhp.
Tuy nhin, m hnh ni tip ny cng xut hin mt nhc im.M hnh ni
tip gm nhiu m hnh hot ng mt ln cng chy song song vi nhau.V vy, khi
nhiu m hnh c cng thi gian o hn th nhu cu tin mt chi tr cho cc thnh
vin b dn li v y ln cao. Nu ban qun tr gi mt lng tin mt ln thanh
ton th s lm gim hiu qu u t ca hip hi v tin s nm "cht" trong kt m
khng sinh li. Cn nu u t ht tin mt ra bn ngoi th hip hi s phi i mt
vi nguy c mt thanh khon do khng c tin mt chi tr cho cc thnh vin. Mt vi
hip hi la chn gii php tnh th l i vay li t cc ngn hng tr cho cc
thnh vin. Nhng gii php ny lm tng chi ph ca hip hi khi h phi i vay
vi li sut cao, lm gim tc dng ca vic tch ly.
56
58
Chng 3: Kh nng hnh thnh m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho
vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti VN
3.1 Khi qut v tnh hnh hot ng ca th trng ti chnh v th trng nh
ti Vit Nam:
3.1.1 Khi qut v hot ng ca th trng ti chnh ti VN
3.1.1.1 Hot ng ca th trng ti chnh trong nhng nm va qua
Ngy 20/7/2000, sn giao dch chng khon thnh ph HCM chnh thc c
vn hnh nh du thi im th trng chng khon VN i vo hot ng. Nm
nm sau , ngy 8/3/2005, sn giao dch chng khon HN ra i.C th ni, vi hot
ng ca hai sn giao dch trn, th trng ti chnh VN c thm knh dn vn nhanh
chng v hiu qu.Trc , cc ngn hng l trung gian ti chnh duy nht trong nn
kinh t: ni nhn gi cc khon tin nhn ri ca c nhn, h gia nh v cung cp vn
cho cc doanh nghip c nhu cu m rng sn xut kinh doanh.Tuy nhin, nh s ra
i ca th trng chng khon, cc c nhn c th la chn nhiu knh u t hn,
bao gm: gi tin vo ngn hng, gp vn vo cc cng ty c phn, mua bn chng
khon trn sn giao dch v cc doanh nghip cng c nhiu cch tip cn v thu ht
vn thng qua pht hnh cc giy t c gi.Cng vi hai sn giao dch chng khon,
nhiu loi hnh nh ch ti chnh cng xut hin nh cc cng ty chng khon, cng ty
ti chnh, qu u t
Trong nhng nm qua, qui m th trng c bc tng trng mnh m v ngy
cng khng nh vai tr l knh dn vn trung v di hn quan trng.Trong giai on t
nm 2000 n nm 2005, t l vn ha th trng ch t trn di 1% GDP. Hai nm
tip theo, qui m th trng c s tng trng mnh m ln 22.7% GDP (2006) v t
59
14
S liu tham kho t bi vit 10 nm hot ng th trng chng khon VN v nh hng chin lc giai
on 2010 -2020 ca tc gi Nguyn Sn, tp ch Kinh t v d bo, chuyn san Tng quan kinh t - x hi
VN, s 2 thng 6/2010.
15
Thng tin tham kho trn website ca y ban nhn dn tnh Lm ng, truy cp lc 17h20 ngy 10/4/2012,
ng dn: http://w3.lamdong.gov.vn/vi-VN/a/damrong/tinhhinhktxh/Pages/nam-2007-ktvn-phat-trien-toandien.aspx
16
S liu tham kho trong Bo co phn tch kinh t VN nm 2008 ca cng ty c phn chng khon Eurocapital
(HN thng 1 nm 2009), tham kho trn website ca cng ty truy cp lc 15h30 ngy 11/4/2012 ng dn:
eurocapital.vn/Modules/CMS/Upload/108/Nam_2009/ECC%20REPORT%202008%20vietnamese%20ver.pdf
60
ng thanh khon cho cc ngn hng c kh khn thanh khon, kim sot t gi, cc
khon vay n vi cc doanh nghip va v nh, gip phc hi sn xut kinh doanh
v lm cho tng trng tn dng t gn 38%.
Nm 2010, kinh t vn phi i mt vi nhng kh khn nh: lm pht cao vi
mc tng trng CPI c nm ln ti 11.75%. ng VN lin tc mt gi; c th l trong
vng 10 thng k t 11/2009 n 08/2010, sau 3 ln iu chnh, t gi USD/VND lin
ngn hng tng 11.17%. Trong nm ny, hot ng ca cc ngn hng nhn chung cng
b sit cht hn bi mt s qui nh nh: qui nh vn iu l ti thiu 3000 t ng
(141/2006/N-CP), qui nh tng t l vn an ton ti thiu t 8% ln 9%
(13/2010/TT-NHNN)c bit trong nhng thng cui nm, li sut tng mnh, cc
ngn hng u lao vo cuc chin li sut vi li sut huy ng mc 14-16%, li sut
cho vay ln ti 19-20%.Trn th trng chng khon, VN Index gim 6.26%, HNX
Index gim 36.5%17.
Nm 2011, thc hin s ch o ca Chnh ph, chnh sch tin t c NHNN
iu hnh theo hng cht ch ngay t u nm. Nh , li sut huy ng t 1 thng
tr ln u mc 14%/nm; tc tng trng tn dng t 15%. Khi li sut huy
ng vn gim, li sut cho vay i vi nn kinh t cng c xu hng gim dn, t
to hiu ng tch cc t pha nn kinh t, t cc khch hng vay vn, ng thi cng
gip cc t chc tn dng hn ch n xu do tc ng hai mt ca c ch li sut cao.
T gi hi oi lin ngn hng tng ln 10,15% (t mc 18.932 ln mc 20.803), ng
thi h bin giao dch xung cn +/-1%, iu chnh gim li sut tin gi USD ca
doanh nghip v dn c xung cn 0,5% v 2%. Bin php ny cho php cc t
chc tn dng mua c ngoi t, th trng c tnh thanh khon tt hn, p ng
nhu cu ngoi t hp l cho khch hng, ng thi c d bn v NHNN, gp phn tng
17
S liu tham kho trong Bo co phn tch ngnh: Din bin nm 2010 & Trin vng nm 2011 ca Phng
Nghin cu Phn tch, cng ty c phn chng khon Ph Wall.
61
18
Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Bc tranh th trng ti chnh 2011 k vng nm 2012 ca tc gi Trng Trit
trn website ca Vin chin lc v chnh sch ti chnh, B Ti chnh, truy cp lc 17h40 ngy 11/4/2012,
ng dn:
http://nif.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/nif/Newdetail?p_page_id=1&pers_id=42972397&item_id=54855429&p
_details=1
62
Qua cc s liu trn, c th thy trong h thng t chc tn dng VN hin nay,
cc NHTM chim t trng ln khng ch v s lng m cn c qui m.
Khng ch vy, ngn hng cn c u th v b dy lch s v kinh nghim hot
ng.Mt s ngn hng u tin ca VN l ngn hng u t v pht trin VN (BIDV)
thnh lp ngy 26/4/1957, ngn hng Ngoi thng VN (Vietcombank) thnh lp ngy
1/4/1963, ngn hng Nng nghip v pht trin nng thn VN (Agribank) thnh lp
ngy 26/3/1988.Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng cn c th mnh trong mng th trng ca
cc khch hng c nhn. C th, theo Lut cc t chc tn dng (lut s
47/2010/QH12) do Quc hi ban hnh ngy 16/6/2010, cc t chc tn dng phi ngn
hng khng c nhn tin gi ca c nhn v cung ng cc dch v thanh ton qua ti
khon ca khch hng. Nh vy, thng qua cc c im va trnh by trn, c th
thy NHTM l nh ch ti chnh c u th nht trong vic tip cn cc khch hng c
nhn ti VN. Do , khi c nhu cu tn dng, khch hng c nhn cng thng ch tm
n NHTM, ni c th cung cp cho h cc khon vay pht trin sn xut kinh doanh,
vay tiu dng hoc vay mua nh.
Cc NHTM ngy nay, c bit cc ngn hng chuyn hot ng trong lnh vc ngn
hng bn l, lun ch trng xy dng nhng chnh sch hp dn v tn dng nh . V
d nh ngn hng HSBC chp nhn khon vay ln n 70% gi tr cn nh th chp v
thi hn vay ko di ln n 25 nm; ngoi ra, khch hng cn c nhn thm cc
dch v min ph nh: m ti khon An Li, nhn th thanh ton quc t visa debit,
dch v ngn hng trc tuyn v ngn hng qua in thoi19.
Tuy vy, cc khon vay mua sm nh i khi cng mang li nhng ri ro rt
ln. iu ny c th thy r trong nn kinh t VN giai on t nm 2008 n nm
19
Thng tin tham kho trn website ca ngn hng HSBC, truy cp lc 15h15 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.hsbc.com.vn/1/2/personal/loans/home-loan
63
20
Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Ngn hng m ca cho vay mua nh ca tc gi Phc H trn website ca
Din n kinh t VN, chuyn trang hp tc gia Vietnam Report v VietnamNet, truy cp lc 16h03 ngy
10/4/2012, ng dn: http://vef.vn/2011-11-25-ngan-hang-mo-cua-cho-vay-mua-nha
64
Nm
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
839211
1143715
1485038
1658389
1980914
(t
53276
79712
95696
110255
139162
T trng ng gp ca
6.35
6.97
6.44
6.65
7.03
xy
dng
ng)
16.74
29.84
11.67
19.45
22.32
20.05
15.21
26.22
dng (%/nm)
T bng trn, ngoi tr giai on 2007 2008, ta thy tc tng trng ca
ngnh xy dng c tng quan cht ch vi tng trng GDP. Trong phn ln giai
on, t l tng trng ngnh xy dng vt qua t l tng GDP. c bit, cui nm
2006 v sang 2007, VN ln lt tri qua 2 cn st chng khon v bt ng sn, to ra
mt lng cu o ln trn cc th trng ny.
65
21
Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Ton cnh th trng bt ng sn nm 2010 trn website dothi.net, truy cp
lc 16h53 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn: http://dothi.net/thi-truong/phan-tich-nhan-dinh/15986/toan-canh-thitruong-bat-dong-san-nam-2010.htm
66
: S liu tham kho trong n phm Tng iu tra dn s v nh VN nm 2009: Kt qu ton b ca Ban ch
o tng iu tra dn s v nh Trung ng, NXB Thng k v bi vit Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm
2009: Cng b kt qu iu tra ton b trn website ca Qu dn s Lin hip quc, truy cp vo lc 22h30 ngy
11/4/2012, ng dn: http://vietnam.unfpa.org/public/lang/vi/pid/6394
67
23
S liu tham kho trong n phm Tng iu tra dn s v nh VN nm 2009: Kt qu ton b ca Ban ch o
tng iu tra dn s v nh Trung ng, NXB Thng k v bi vit Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm 2009:
Cng b kt qu iu tra ton b trn website ca Qu dn s Lin hip quc, truy cp vo lc 22h30 ngy
11/4/2012, ng dn: http://vietnam.unfpa.org/public/lang/vi/pid/6394
24
S liu tham kho t Kho st mc sng h dn c nm 2010, phn 5: Thu nhp, trn website ca Tng cc
thng k, truy cp lc 22h55 ngy 11/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=417&idmid=4&ItemID=11138
68
S phiu
trong vng 5 nm ti
30
47
13
trn 15 nm
10
69
Tr s gia (xi)
<1
0.5
13
64
35
27
>5
Gi tr trung bnh l:
Xu hng ch yu c la chn l nh c gi tr t 1 3 t. y l mc gi nh va
phi, khng qu cao trn th trng.
3.2.1.3 Nhc im ca cc khon vay mua nh hin nay
Nh l ti sn c gi tr rt ln, thng thng nu ch da vo thu nhp t tin
lng hng thng, ngi dn phi ch rt lu mi c th s hu c mt cn nh. Vy
u s l ngun ti tr cho nhu cu mua nh? Khi c hi Ngoi tin lng hng
thng, anh/ch c th s dng nhng ngun vn no ti tr cho vic mua nh?, 100
ngi tham gia iu tra cho kt qu nh sau:
Bng 12: Kt qu iu tra kho st v cc ngun vn s dng ti tr cho vic mua
nh
La chn:
T l phiu (%)
70
60
22
18
71
72
Tr s gia (xi)
2.5
5 10
42
7.5
10 - 15
16
12.5
15 - 20
17.5
>20
22.5
Gi tr trung bnh l:
Trong khi , ngn sch bnh qun cho vic mua nh l 2.57 t ng. Nh vy,
gi nh gp khong hn 200 ln so vi thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi dn. Khong
cch qu ln gia gi nh v thu nhp nh trn khin thi gian tch ly b ko di. Thi
gian hot ng mt vng qu di s lm mt tnh hiu qu ca S&Ls v lm n tr nn
km hp dn.
3.2.2.4 Cc knh u t ti chnh cha em li hiu qu cao
Trong mt vi nm va qua, li sut huy ng tin gi ca cc NHTM kh cao
(nh im ln n 14 16% nm 2010), tuy nhin, t l lm pht cng mc kh cao
(chng hn nh mc tng trng CPI c nm 2010 ln ti 11.75%) khin cho li sut
thc khi gi tin vo cc ngn hng khng hp dn. Li sut huy ng tng y li sut
cho vay ln cao, khin cc doanh nghip gp rt nhiu kh khn trong sn xut kinh
doanh, thm ch nhiu doanh nghip phi ng ca ngng hot ng do thiu vn. Do
vy, gp vn u t vo cc doanh nghip cng khng phi l cch u t hiu qu.
Bn cnh , th trng chng khon t nm 2008 cng thng xuyn suy gim. Nh
vy, mt kh khn na xut hin i vi S&Ls khi bc vo th trng VN l thiu cc
knh u t em li hiu qu, gip cc khon tin gi ca cc thnh vin sinh li.
73
74
dnh dm c khon tin tng i ln t nhng mn tin tit kim nh hng thng,
khuyn khch ngi dn c thc tch ly.
Tuy cch thc hot ng kh n gin, nhng trong nhng nm va qua, c rt
nhiu v la o ti sn xut pht t hot ng chi h, v d: ngi chi sau khi c
ht hi th khng chu ng tin cc k tip theo na hay ch hi c khng chu tr
tin cho nhng ngi khc, la o chim ot ti sn. Nguyn nhn chnh l do gia
nhng ngi tham gia khng c giy t m bo, rng buc m mi lin h ch xut
pht t lng tin. Ngh nh 144/2006/N-CP l mt trong s nhng vn bn php lut
u tin qui nh v hnh thc, quyn, ngha v v trch nhim ca nhng ngi tham
gia h nhm ngn chn vay nng li, la o, lm dng tn nhim hoc cc hnh vi
tri php lut khc chim ot ti sn ca ngi khc (trch iu 2 ca ngh nh).
Mc d vy, s thua l v tnh trng la o ca nhiu dy h trong thi gian qua
li mt n tng xu i vi ngi dn. Do vy, mt vn t ra l: khi xy dng
S&Ls (vi mt s c im ging nh hi h) VN, chng ta cn c nhng chnh sch
cng khai, cng bng, trung thc v cht ch cng nh phi chp nhn dnh nhiu thi
gian thuyt phc, to lng tin ca mi ngi v tnh hiu qu ca m hnh.
3.3 M hnh hot ng d kin ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti Vit Nam
3.3.1. Cc gi thit v iu kin ca m hnh
M hnh hot ng ca mt S&Ls VN c thit lp trn c s mt s iu kin nht
nh ca th trng ti chnh nh sau:
1. Hip hi S&LS vn hnh theo m hnh hot ng mt ln (Terminating
Plan). Theo m hnh s ch tip nhn mt s lng thnh vin nht nh v
n khi tt c mi thnh vin trong hip hi nhn c khon tin cam kt ban
u th hip hi s ngng hot ng.
75
76
S tin thu c
S d nm trc
S d tin gi ti NH (cui
nm)
Nm 1
120,000,000
Nm 2
125,500,000
258,050,000
120,000,000
138,050,000
Nm 3
403,855,000
120,000,000
283,855,000
Nm 4
564,240,500
120,000,000
444,240,500
Nm 5
740,664,550
120,000,000
620,664,550
Nm 6
934,731,005
120,000,000
814,731,005
Nm 7
1,148,204,106
120,000,000
1,028,204,106
77
Nm 8
1,383,024,516
120,000,000
1,263,024,516
Nm 9
1,641,326,968
120,000,000
1,521,326,968
Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
S tin thu
Thi gian
(cui
(thng)
Li sut
thng)
Thng 1
500,000,000
11
0.143
571,500,000
Thng 2
500,000,000
10
0.130
565,000,000
Thng 3
500,000,000
09
0.117
558,500,000
Thng 4
500,000,000
08
0.104
552,000,000
Thng 5
500,000,000
07
0.091
545,500,000
78
Thng 6
500,000,000
06
0.078
539,000,000
Thng 7
500,000,000
05
0.065
532,500,000
Thng 8
500,000,000
04
0.052
526,000,000
Thng 9
500,000,000
03
0.039
519,500,000
Thng 10
500,000,000
02
0.026
513,000,000
Thng 11
500,000,000
01
0.013
506,500,000
Thng 12
500,000,000
0.000
500,000,000
Cui nm
6,429,000,000
25
Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 26 M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn, phn Ph lc
Nghin cu khoa hc
79
S tin thu c
S d nm trc
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
Nm 1
6,429,000,000
6,429,000,000
Nm 2
6,429,000,000
7,431,924,000
13,860,924,000
Nm 3
6,429,000,000
16,023,228,144
22,452,228,144
Nm 4
6,429,000,000
25,954,775,734
32,383,775,734
Nm 5
6,429,000,000
37,435,644,749
43,864,644,749
Nm 6
6,429,000,000
50,707,529,330
57,136,529,330
Nm 7
6,429,000,000
66,049,827,905
72,478,827,905
Nm 8
6,429,000,000
83,785,525,059
90,214,525,059
Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
Trn thc t l sau 8 nm, hip hi tch ly c 90,214,525,059 ng.Nu tr
i cc chi ph hot ng trong vng 8 nm ny, th mi thnh vin vn c th nhn
c 1,800,000 (1.8 t) ng.S d cn li, sau khi tr chi ph hot ng, nu cn
tha, s c chia u cho cc thnh vin.
*)Tm tt quy trnh:
Bng 17: Tm tt qui trnh i vi m hnh thnh vin khng vay vn
Tng s tin thu c (ng)
90,214,525,059
1,800,000,000
1,800,000,000 x 50 = 90,000,000,000
214,525,059
80
81
cui nm vo ngn hng, hip hi S&LS s trch mt khon tin cho cc thnh vin
vay. Quy trnh c th nh sau26:
C cui mi thng, mi thnh vin s np 10,000,000 vo qu ca hip hi.
Nh vy, cui mi thng,hip hi s tch ly c 10,000,000 x 50 =
500,000,000 ng. V s tin ny kh ln, hip hi s em s tin ny gi vo
ngn hng (v ta gi nh gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng l knh u t hiu
qu nht) vi li sut 15.6%/nm, k hn l s thng cn li cho n cui
nm. Nh vy cui mi nm, hip hi s thu c mt khon tin l
6,429,000,000ng.
Theo gi thit trn, cc thnh vin ch c th vay ti a l 1,500,000,000
ng. Cng theo nh tnh ton trn th mi nm hip hi tch ly c
6,429,000,000 ng. iu ny c ngha l mi nm hip hi s ch c th cho
ti a 4 thnh vin vay, tng ng vi s tin l 6,000,000,000 ng.
S tin cn li 429,000,000 ng s c gi li vo ngn hng vi li sut
15.6%/nm, k hn 1 nm.Cui mi nm, s tin tch ly c t nm trc
v s d mi tch ly c trong nm s c cng li cho ra mt s d
cui k.
Bng 18: Trnh by khon thu t cc thnh vin trong 9 nm u tin
S thnh
S tin
S d
S d tin gi ti
Thi
Tng s tin
Cho thnh
S thnh
vin cha
gi li NH
nm trc
NH (cui nm)
gian
thu c
vin vay
vin vay
vay
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
Nm 1
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
46
429,000,000
429,000,000
Nm 2
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
42
429,000,000
493,350,000
922,350,000
Nm 3
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
38
429,000,000
1,060,702,500
1,489,702,500
26
Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 27 M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc
thnh vin), phn Ph lc Nghin cu khoa hc
82
Nm 4
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
34
429,000,000
1,713,157,875
2,142,157,875
Nm 5
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
30
429,000,000
2,463,481,556
2,892,481,556
Nm 6
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
26
429,000,000
3,326,353,790
3,755,353,790
Nm 7
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
22
429,000,000
4,318,656,858
4,747,656,858
Nm 8
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
18
429,000,000
5,459,805,387
5,888,805,387
Nm 9
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
14
429,000,000
6,772,126,195
7,201,126,195
Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
n cui nm th 9, vn cn 14 thnh vin cha c vay vn.Lc ny, hip
hi tch ly c mt khon tin gi tr gi 7,201,126,195 ng.Khon tin
ny khng cp nt cho 14 thnh vin cn li. Tuy nhin, hip hi vn cn
mt khon thu na.
83
4 ngi
S tin ng
Nhu cu vn
S tin tr vo
gp (ng)
vay (ng)
mi k (ng)
(nm)
120,000,000
1,380,000,000
D n
(ng)
Tin li phi
tr (ng)
172,500,000
1,380,000,000
207,000,000
172,500,000
1,207,500,000
181,125,000
172,500,000
1,035,000,000
155,250,000
172,500,000
862,500,000
129,375,000
172,500,000
690,000,000
103,500,000
172,500,000
517,500,000
77,625,000
172,500,000
345,000,000
51,750,000
172,500,000
172,500,000
25,875,000
Tng li
931,500,000
3,726,000,000
9,703,125
38,812,500
Li/thng
Lu :
S k (nm) = 9 s nm thnh vin ng gp vn trc . Trong trng
hp 4 ngi ny vay vn vo cui nm th nht, s k s l 9-1=8 nm. S k
tr n s gim tng ng i vi cc thnh vin vay vn sau
S tin tr n mi k = nhu cu vn vay/s k
27
Kt qu tnh tonchi tit i vi cc thnh vin vay vn vo nhng nm sau c trnh by trong Bng 28
M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc thnh vin vay vn), phn Ph lc
Nghin cu khoa hc
84
Cui nm 1
9,703,125
38,812,500
Cui nm 2
9,000,000
36,000,000
Cui nm 3
8,312,500
33,250,000
Cui nm 4
7,650,000
30,600,000
Cui nm 5
7,031,250
28,125,000
Cui nm 6
6,500,000
26,000,000
Cui nm 7
6,187,500
24,750,000
Cui nm 8
6,750,000
27,000,000
85
S ngi
S tin li thu
S d nm trc
S d tin gi ti NH
tr li
c (ng)
(ng)
cui nm (ng)
Cui nm 1
Cui nm 2
497,770,313
497,770,313
Cui nm 3
959,470,313
572,435,859
1,531,906,172
Cui nm 4
12
1,385,901,563
1,761,692,098
3,147,593,660
Cui nm 5
16
1,778,346,563
3,619,732,709
5,398,079,272
Cui nm 6
20
2,139,049,688
6,207,791,162
8,346,840,850
Cui nm 7
24
2,472,499,688
9,598,866,977
12,071,366,665
Cui nm 8
28
2,789,918,438
13,882,071,665
16,671,990,102
Cui nm 9
32
3,136,193,438
19,172,788,617
22,308,982,055
Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
28
Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 29 M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li), phn Ph
lc Nghin cu khoa hc
86
7,201,126,195
Trch t s d cc khon tr li
13,798,873,805
Bc 2: Phn b li ch cn li
Sau khi trch 13,798,873,805 ng, hip hi s cn li 8,510,108,250 ng.S
tin ny s c dng phn b li ch cho cc thnh vin, vi kt qu cui cng t
c s l s tin m mi thnh vin nhn c s bng s tin h nhn c nu t
mnh tch ly mi thng 10,000,000 ng trong vng 9 nm, vi li sut l 11%/nm
(so vi m hnh c nhn t tch ly ch l 10%/nm). Nh vy, tng s tin mi thnh
vin nhn c phi tng ng 1,699,676,645 ng, tc l h phi c phn chia
thm li nhun sao cho h s nhn c tng s li ch l 199,676,645 ng (=
1,699,676,645 1,500,000,000).
i vi cc thnh vin vay vn trc nm th 9, h s c li th do c vay
vn vi li sut thp hn li sut yu cu trn th trng (li sut vay t cc ngn
hng). S tin li phi tr theo li sut yu cu th trng c tnh ging nh s tin
li phi tr theo li sut ca hip hi S&L. Tuy nhin, thay v dng li sut 15%/nm,
ta s dng li sut 18%/nm ca th trng. Li th thu c chnh l chnh lch trong
s tin phi tr theo li sut ca S&LS v theo th trng. Phn li th ny sau s
c tr khi tng li ch b p thm 199,676,645, tnh ra li ch thc s cn c
b p thm.
87
S tin li phi
S tin li phi tr
Li th t chnh
Li ch c
S tin cn
vay n
tr (theo S&L)
(theo th trng)
lch li vay
phn b thm
ngi
phn b thm
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
vay n
(ng)
Cui nm 1
931,500,000
1,117,800,000
186,300,000
13,376,645
53,506,579
Cui nm 2
705,600,000
846,720,000
141,120,000
58,556,645
234,226,579
Cui nm 3
558,600,000
670,320,000
111,720,000
87,956,645
351,826,579
Cui nm 4
428,400,000
514,080,000
85,680,000
113,996,645
455,986,579
Cui nm 5
315,000,000
378,000,000
63,000,000
136,676,645
546,706,579
Cui nm 6
218,400,000
262,080,000
43,680,000
155,996,645
623,986,579
Cui nm 7
138,600,000
166,320,000
27,720,000
171,956,645
687,826,579
Cui nm 8
75,600,000
90,720,000
15,120,000
184,556,645
738,226,579
199,676,645
18
3,594,179,606
Cui nm 9
Tng
7,286,472,239
88
Thi
gian
Tng s tin
thu c t ng
gp
Cho thnh
c t tin li
vin vay
S tin
S d
gi li NH (ng)
nm trc (ng)
T ng gp
T tin li
Tng
T ng gp
T tin li
Tng
T ng gp
T tin li
Tng
Nm 1
6,429,000,000
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
429,000,000
429,000,000
429,000,000
Nm 2
6,429,000,000
497,770,313
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
497,770,313
926,770,313
493,350,000
493,350,000
922,350,000
497,770,313
1,420,120,313
Nm 3
6,429,000,000
959,470,313
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
959,470,313
1,388,470,313
1,060,702,500
572,435,859
1,633,138,359
1,489,702,500
1,531,906,172
3,021,608,672
Nm 4
6,429,000,000
1,385,901,563
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
1,385,901,563
1,814,901,563
1,713,157,875
1,761,692,098
3,474,849,973
2,142,157,875
3,147,593,661
5,289,751,536
Nm 5
6,429,000,000
1,778,346,563
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
1,778,346,563
2,207,346,563
2,463,481,556
3,619,732,709
6,083,214,265
2,892,481,556
5,398,079,272
8,290,560,828
Nm 6
6,429,000,000
2,139,049,688
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
2,139,049,688
2,568,049,688
3,326,353,790
6,207,791,162
9,534,144,952
3,755,353,790
8,346,840,850
12,102,194,640
Nm 7
6,429,000,000
2,472,499,688
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
2,472,499,688
2,901,499,688
4,318,656,858
9,598,866,977
13,917,523,835
4,747,656,858
12,071,366,665
16,819,023,523
Nm 8
6,429,000,000
2,789,918,438
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
2,789,918,438
3,218,918,438
5,459,805,387
13,882,071,665
19,341,877,052
5,888,805,387
16,671,990,103
22,560,795,490
6,429,000,000
3,136,193,438
6,000,000,000
429,000,000
3,136,193,438
3,565,193,438
6,772,126,195
19,172,788,617
25,944,914,812
7,201,126,195
22,308,982,055
29,510,108,250
Nm 9
21,000,000,000
8,510,108,250
Phn b li ch
7,286,472,239
1,223,636,011
90
Kt lun
Tm li, qua qu trnh nghin c, ti cung cp cho ngi c mt ci nhn
tng quan v nhng c trng c bn nht ca S&Ls, nh gi nhng tc ng ca
nh ch ti chnh ny i vi th trng nh ti M v xut c m hnh hot
ng d kin ca Hip hi ny trong iu kin th trng nh ti VN.
Trn c s trnh by nhng thng tin c bn nht v S&Ls, bao gm khi nim,
chc nng, vai tr, c ch hot ng , cc m hnh hot ng tng c p dng ti
M,v nhng nhn t nh hng n hot ng ca t chc ny . Qua phn ny, c th
hiu kh chi tit v nhng c im v cch thc vn hnh ca Hip hi, nhng u
im v thiu st ca tng m hnh, t c th xut c mt m hnh hon chnh
hn.
Vic nghin cu tc ng ca vic gia tng quy m v s lng ca cc S&Ls
t nhng nm 1930 n s thay i trong s lng nh xy mi ti M, v c nhng
o lut ca Chnh ph M c ban hnh trong thi gian ch ra nguyn nhn
v ca h thng cc hip hi S&Ls trong nhng nm 1980, ng thi khi qut v xu
hng pht trin ca nh ch ny trong th k XXI.
Cui cng, nh gi trin vng pht trin m hnh hot ng ca S&Ls trong
lnh vc nh ti VN, nhng iu kin thnh lp m hnh ny ti VN, nhm nghin
cu xut m hnh hot ng d kin cho VN (c da trn mt s gi nh ca th
trng). Cc m hnh xut nh m hnh c nhn t tch ly, m hnh cho thnh vin
vay vn. Mi m hnh xut u c tnh ton c th v s tin ng gp, thi gian
ng gp, cch thc cho vay, cch thc phn b li ch i vi cc thnh vin.
91
92
93
14. Managing the Crisis: The FDIC and RTC Experience, 19801994 (Washington, D.C.:
Resolution Trust Corporation, 1998), 795, 798
15. Historical Statistics on Banking, Bank and Thrift Failures, FDIC
website:
ng
dn:
eurocapital.vn/Modules/CMS/Upload/108/Nam_2009/ECC%20REPORT%202008%2
0vietnamese%20ver.pdf
24. Bi vit Bc tranh th trng ti chnh 2011 k vng nm 2012 ca tc gi Trng Trit
trn website ca Vin chin lc v chnh sch ti chnh, B Ti chnh, truy cp lc
17h40
ngy
11/4/2012,
ng
dn:
http://nif.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/nif/Newdetail?p_page_id=1&pers_id=429723
97&item_id=54855429&p_details=1
94
k,
truy
cp
lc
22h55
ngy
11/4/2012,
ng
dn:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=417&idmid=4&ItemID=11138
27. Bi vit Ngn hng m ca cho vay mua nh ca tc gi Phc H trn website ca
Din n kinh t VN, chuyn trang hp tc gia Vietnam Report v VietnamNet, truy
cp lc 16h03 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn: http://vef.vn/2011-11-25-ngan-hang-mocua-cho-vay-mua-nha
28. Bi vit Ton cnh th trng bt ng sn nm 2010 trn website dothi.net, truy cp
lc 16h53 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn: http://dothi.net/thi-truong/phan-tich-nhandinh/15986/toan-canh-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-nam-2010.htm
29. Website: www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association
30. Website ca y ban nhn dn tnh Lm ng, truy cp lc 17h20 ngy 10/4/2012,
ng
dn:
http://w3.lamdong.gov.vn/vi-VN/a/damrong/tinhhinhktxh/Pages/nam-
2007-ktvn-phat-trien-toan-dien.aspx
31. Website ca ngn hng HSBC, truy cp lc 15h15 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.hsbc.com.vn/1/2/personal/loans/home-loan
32. Website ca Tng cc thng k, truy cp lc 15h37 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=388&idmid=3&ItemID=11548
33. Website ca NHNN truy cp lc 11h40 ngy 10/04/2012, ng dn:
http://www.sbv.gov.vn/
95
Ph lc
Ph lc 1: Bng cu hi kho st iu tra v nhu cu mua nh v kin ca ngi
dn v cc knh u t trn th trng ti chnh hin nay
BNG CU HI IU TRA
1. Gii thiu v mc ch nghin cu:
Nhu cu mua nh ca ngi VN ang ngy cng gia tng, c bit l nhu cu mua nh ti
nhng thnh ph ln nh HN v thnh ph HCM. Tuy nhin, gi nh ti cc khu vc ny
thng cao hn rt nhiu ln so vi thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi lao ng. Do , vic s
hu mt cn nh ti cc thnh ph ln tr thnh mt vic tng i kh khn v i hi s
tch ly ti chnh trong mt thi gian di.
Vi mong mun nghin cu v pht trin mt m hnh trung gian ti chnh mi vi vai tr h
tr ngi dn trong vic mua nh, nhm nghin cu rt mong nhn c s h tr ca anh/ch
bng vic cung cp mt s thng tin v c nhn, thu nhp v nhu cu nh . Cm n s gip
ca anh/ch.
c thn
96
lp gia nh
5. Ngn sch d kin dnh cho vic mua nh ca anh/ch l bao nhiu?
a. di 1 t
b. t 1-3 t
c. t 3-5 t
d. trn 5 t
97
c. gp vn vo cc cng ty
d. cha c hnh thc no thc s hiu qu
9. S&Ls (S&Ls) l mt m hnh trung gian ti chnh pht trin rt ph bin M v mt s
nc chu u. Trong , cc hi vin tham gia theo nh k s ng gp mt s tin nht nh
vo hi v sau mt thi gian c hi h tr cho vay vn mua nh.
Anh/ch tng nghe ni hay bit n m hnh ny cha?
a. tng nghe ni
b. cha bao gi
10. Nu trong tng lai gn (vi nm ti), m hnh ny pht trin ti VN, anh/ch c sn
lng tham gia khng?
a. rt sn sng
b. cn c thm thi gian suy ngh v tm hiu m hnh trc khi quyt nh
c. khng mun tham gia v cm thy mo him
98
Ph lc 2
Bng 25: Danh sch 100 ngi tham gia tr li phiu iu tra
STT H tn:
Gii
Qu qun:
tnh:
Nm
sinh:
Ngh nghip:
Ni lm vic:
Nguyn Th
Nhim
Nam nh
1966
X nghip bn
1 - b quc phng
L Minh Tuyt
HN
1968
Cn b
Trng Quc
Vit
Nam
HN
1990
Kim ton
Trn L t
Nam
HN
1980
K s
HN
Trng Th
Chu Loan
HN
1987
Cng ty Kona
Partner
V Th Thanh
Hu
Ninh Bnh
1987
Nhn vin
HN
Nguyn Bo
Anh
Thi Bnh
1982
Nguyn Xun
Vit
Nam
Bc Ninh
1978
Kinh doanh
khch sn
Khch sn Cozy
Hotel
Nguyn Vn
Hng
Nam
Nam nh
1984
B i
HN
10
L Cng Minh
Nam
Ch Linh Hi Dng
1984
K s phn
mm
Cng ty FPT
11
Hong M Hnh
HN
1987
HN
12
L Ba
Nam
HN
1982
HN
13
m Th Thy
Thi Bnh
1967
Cng ty Ging cy
trng 1
99
14
Tr Dng
Nam
HN
1954
Gio vin
Trng Cao ng
ngh HN
15
m Quang
Thng
Thi bnh
1975
Cng ty Agricare
16
ng Vn Tn
Nam
Thi Bnh
1964
K s xy dng
HN
17
Phm Ngc
Thng
Nam
K s xy dng
HN
18
L Bch Thy
Cn b cng
nhn vin
HN
19
L nh t
Nam
Thanh Ha
1988
K s cng ngh
HN
thng tin
20
Bi Thy Linh
HN
1988
K ton
HN
21
Nguyn Mu
Thu Huyn
HN
1987
K ton
HN
22
Nam
HN
1983
Nhn vin bn
hng
HN
23
HN
1989
Nhn vin IT
HN
24
Nguyn Minh
Thu
HN
1979
Cng ty BMF
Global
25
Chu Thy
Qunh
HN
1960
K ton
X nghip xe but
HN
26
on Th Yn
Bc Giang
HN
HN
27
Phm Th Kim
Dung
Thanh Tr,
HN
1986
Nhn vin vn
phng
Vin du kh HN
28
Phm Th Tuyt
Thanh Tr,
HN
1988
Nhn vin vn
phng
29
Vng Th Thu
Trang
HN
1989
Chuyn vin
marketing
HN
30
Nguyn Quc
Hng
Nam
HN
1977
Ph ban u t
100
31
Phm Th Thu
Hng
32
Nguyn Thu H
HN
33
Hong Vn
Hng
Nam
34
Nguyn Th
Hng Tho
35
Nhn vin
S in lc HN
1960
Ph gim c
HN
Yn
1952
Ging vin
i hc M a
cht
ng Ha,
HN
1985
Kin trc s
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
Ch Cng
Nam
Hi Phng
1987
K s xy dng
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
36
V L Dng
Nam
Bc Ninh
1971
Kin trc s
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
37
Nguyn Th
Hng Vn
HN
1980
K s giao
thng
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
38
Nam
Thanh Ha
1958
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
39
L Th Thu
Hng
1985
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
40
ng Thy
Dng
Thi Bnh
1983
Nghin cu
vin
Trung tm khoa
hc bo qun
41
Nguyn Thu
Phng
Bc Ninh
1980
Cng chc
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
42
V Th Tho
Thi Bnh
1980
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
43
Nguyn Th Mai
Hoa
Thanh Ha
1982
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
101
Vnh Phc
1982
k ton
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
H Nam
1957
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
46
L Vn Hng
Nam
HN
1974
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
47
Trn Th Hi
Yn
Bc Ninh
1988
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
48
L Cng Dng
Nam
Qung Ninh
1985
Chuyn vin
chnh
Ngn hng
Sacombank
49
Nguyn PHc
c
Nam
Hi Dng
1983
K s cng
ngh thng tin
Tp on vin
thng qun i
Viettel
50
Hong Vn
Nghin
Nam
Thi Bnh
1963
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
51
Nguyn Vn
Tht
Nam
Hi Dng
1957
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
52
Nguyn Hoi
Thanh
Thanh Ha
1984
K ton
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
53
Phm Th
Qunh
Ngh An
1987
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
54
Hong Vit H
Tuyn
Quang
1988
K ton
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
55
Phm Th
Phng
Thi Bnh
1986
K ton
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
56
Nguyn Mai
Hng
Hi Dng
1980
Chuyn vin
chnh
Tng cc d tr
nh nc
57
Nguyn nh
Thng
Nam
Thi Bnh
1980
K s cng
ngh thng tin
Cng ty c phn
gii php s VN
44
Trn Th Lin
45
102
58
Trnh nh Hi
Nam
59
Phng T Hoa
60
Nguyn Duy
Linh
Nam
HN
Gim c
Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC
1977
K ton
Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC
1977
K S in
S in lc HN
1984
K s cng
ngh thng tin
Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC
1952
HN
61
Trnh Hi Anh
Nam
62
Phan Quang
Minh
Nam
HN
1963
Cn b
X nghip xe but
HN
63
Nguyn Vn
Nam
Nam
HN
1982
HN
64
Nguyn Th
Hng Hnh
Hi Phng
1962
Nhn vin
X nghip xe but
HN
65
Nguyn Tr
Dng
Nam
HN
1961
Cn b
X nghip xe but
HN
66
Phan Hu Hip
Nam
Thi Bnh
1981
K s t
X nghip xe but
HN
67
L Tun Php
Nam
HN
1982
Nhn vin
X nghip xe but
HN
68
T Th Thy
Anh
HN
1958
K ton
X nghip xe but
HN
69
Phm L Thu
H
HN
1963
Nhn vin
X nghip xe but
HN
70
Hong Th Kim
Dung
HN
1978
K ton
X nghip xe but
HN
71
Trn Th Hng
Thanh
Nam nh
1984
K ton
X nghip xe but
HN
103
72
Trng Diu
Hng
H Nam
1983
Th qu
X nghip xe but
HN
73
Dng Th
Hng Tr
HN
1973
Nhn vin
X nghip xe but
HN
74
Nguyn Thy
Nga
HN
1972
K ton
X nghip xe but
HN
75
Lng V Vn
Anh
Hi Dng
1978
X nghip xe but
HN
76
HN
1989
X nghip xe but
HN
77
Cao Thi H
HN
1983
X nghip xe but
HN
78
Nguyn Tin
Lc
Nam
HN
1979
X nghip xe but
HN
79
Nguyn Quang
Minh
Nam
HN
1983
Li xe
X nghip xe but
HN
80
Xun Chin
Nam
Bc Giang
1978
Nhn vin bn
v
X nghip xe but
HN
81
Nam
Bc Ninh
1974
Li xe
X nghip xe but
HN
82
Trn Phng
Chin
Nam
HN
1984
HN
83
Trng Thu
Vn
Lng Sn
1987
HN
84
Lng Ngc
Anh
Nam
Vnh Phc
1986
K s
HN
85
Nguyn Vit
Khoa
Nam
HN
1982
Nhn vin IT
Ngn hng
86
on Cng
Tho
Nam
Hi Dng
1960
Gio vin
Trng THCS
Ging V, HN
87
Nguyn Thnh
Vinh
Nam
1960
Gio vin
Trng THPT HN
- Amsterdam
104
88
Nguyn Xun
Quang
Nam
Hi Dng
89
Trn Hi Yn
HN
90
Nguyn Th Thu
91
Nguyn Thu H
HN
92
inh Nguyn T
N
Anh
HN
93
V Minh Tr
Nam
94
Ng Diu Thu
95
H Thi Thanh
Tm
Ngh An
96
H Th Thanh
Thy
Ngh An
97
Nguyn Th Thu
Sng
Nng
98
Nam
HN
99
100
Vng Ton
Th Ho
Nam
Gio vin
Trng THPT HN
- Amsterdam
Cn b ngn
hng
Ngn hng PG
Bank
Nhn vin
Ngn hng PG
Bank
1986
Nhn vin
Ngn hng PG
Bank
1987
Cn b ngn
hng
Ngn hng PG
Bank
1982
Cn b ngn
hng
Ngn hng PG
Bank
Cn b ngn
hng
Ngn hng PG
Bank
Gim c
Cng ty c phn
cng ngh cao Gia
Nguyn
Chuyn vin
chnh
1984
Nhn vin vn
phng
Ngn hng PG
Bank
1965
Quay phim
i Truyn hnh
VN
1960
Ph tng gim
c
Tng cng ty c
phn bia ru
nc gii kht HN
Th in
Tng cng ty c
phn bia ru
nc gii kht HN
1987
1963
HN
Bc Ninh
1960
105
Ph lc 3
Bng 26: M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn
Thi gian
S tin
thu c (ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
Li
sut
(thng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 1 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 1
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 2 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 2
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 3 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 3
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
106
Tng s tin
S d
Tng s tin gi
thu c
nm trc
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
6,429,000,000
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
7,431,924,000
13,860,924,000
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
16,023,228,144
22,452,228,144
Thi gian
S tin
thu c (ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
Li
sut
(thng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 4 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 4
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 5 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 5
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 6 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 6
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
107
Tng s tin
S d
Tng s tin gi
thu c
nm trc
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
25,954,775,734
32,383,775,734
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
37,435,644,749
43,864,644,749
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
50,707,529,330
57,136,529,330
Thi gian
S tin
thu c (ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
Li
sut
(thng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 7 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 7
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 8 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 8
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 9 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 9
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
108
Tng s tin
S d
Tng s tin gi
thu c
nm trc
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
(ng)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
66,049,827,905
72,478,827,905
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
83,785,525,059
90,214,525,059
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000
104,287,990,968
110,716,990,968
Ph lc 4:
Bng 27: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc thnh vin)
Thi gian
S tin thu
c
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 1 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 1
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 2 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 2
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)
Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)
S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay
S tin
gi li NH
(ng)
S d
nm trc
(ng)
Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
46
429,000,000
429,000,000
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
42
429,000,000
493,350,000
922,350,000
109
Thi gian
S tin thu
c
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 3 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 3
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 4 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 4
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)
Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)
S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay
S tin
gi li NH
(ng)
S d
nm trc
(ng)
Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
38
429,000,000 1,060,702,500
1,489,702,500
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
34
429,000,000 1,713,157,875
2,142,157,875
110
Thi gian
S tin thu
c
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 5 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 5
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 6 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 6
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)
Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)
S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay
S tin
gi li NH
(ng)
S d
nm trc
(ng)
Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
30
429,000,000 2,463,481,556
2,892,481,556
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
26
429,000,000 3,326,353,790
3,755,353,790
111
Thi gian
S tin thu
c
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 7 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 7
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 8 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 8
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)
Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)
S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay
S tin
gi li NH
(ng)
S d
nm trc
(ng)
Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
22
429,000,000 4,318,656,858
4,747,656,858
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
18
429,000,000 5,459,805,387
5,888,805,387
112
Thi gian
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 9 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 9
S tin thu
c
(ng)
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000
Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)
Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)
S thnh
vin vay
571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000
113
S thnh
vin cha
vay
14
S tin
gi li NH
(ng)
S d
nm trc
(ng)
429,000,000 6,772,126,195
Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)
7,201,126,195
Ph lc 5:
Bng 28: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc
thnh vin vay vn)
Nm
1
Nm
2
S k
(nm)
Hn mc vay
vn (ng)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1,500,000,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1,500,000,000
S tin gc
D n
(l thuyt) tr
(l thuyt)
hng nm
(ng)
thuyt) (ng)
tng k (ng)
(ng)
120,000,000
1,380,000,000
172,500,000
1,380,000,000
172,500,000
1,207,500,000
172,500,000
1,035,000,000
172,500,000
862,500,000
172,500,000
690,000,000
172,500,000
517,500,000
172,500,000
345,000,000
172,500,000
172,500,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
S tin
ng gp
240,000,000
Nhu cu
vn vay (l
1,260,000,000
Nm
3
1,500,000,000
360,000,000
1,140,000,000
1,260,000,000
1,080,000,000
900,000,000
720,000,000
540,000,000
360,000,000
180,000,000
189,000,000
162,000,000
135,000,000
108,000,000
81,000,000
54,000,000
27,000,000
756,000,000
9,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
1,140,000,000
950,000,000
760,000,000
570,000,000
380,000,000
190,000,000
171,000,000
142,500,000
114,000,000
85,500,000
57,000,000
28,500,000
598,500,000
8,312,500
204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000
1,020,000,000
816,000,000
612,000,000
408,000,000
204,000,000
153,000,000
122,400,000
91,800,000
61,200,000
30,600,000
459,000,000
7,650,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
Nm
4
1
2
3
4
5
1,500,000,000
480,000,000
1,020,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
114
207,000,000
181,125,000
155,250,000
129,375,000
103,500,000
77,625,000
51,750,000
25,875,000
931,500,000
9,703,125
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng(ng)
1
2
3
4
5
6
S tin li
phi tr (ng)
S k
(nm)
Hn mc vay
vn (ng)
1,500,000,000
Nm
5
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
1,500,000,000
Nm
6
S tin gc
D n
(l thuyt) tr
(l thuyt)
hng nm
(ng)
thuyt) (ng)
tng k (ng)
(ng)
600,000,000
900,000,000
225,000,000
900,000,000
225,000,000
675,000,000
225,000,000
450,000,000
225,000,000
225,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng(ng)
S tin
ng gp
720,000,000
Nhu cu
vn vay (l
780,000,000
1
2
Nm
8
1,500,000,000
840,000,000
660,000,000
780,000,000
520,000,000
260,000,000
117,000,000
78,000,000
39,000,000
234,000,000
6,500,000
330,000,000
330,000,000
660,000,000
330,000,000
99,000,000
49,500,000
148,500,000
6,187,500
540,000,000
81,000,000
81,000,000
6,750,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
1,500,000,000
960,000,000
540,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
115
135,000,000
101,250,000
67,500,000
33,750,000
337,500,000
7,031,250
260,000,000
260,000,000
260,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
Nm
7
S tin li
phi tr (ng)
Ph lc 6:
Bng 29: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li)
Thi
gian
Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)
Li
sut
S tin
thu c
(ng)
S d
nm trc (ng)
S d
cui nm
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm
Thng 7
1
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
2
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
3
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
116
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
44,149,219
43,664,063
43,178,906
42,693,750
42,208,594
41,723,438
41,238,281
40,753,125
40,267,969
39,782,813
39,297,656
38,812,500
497,770,313
497,770,313
85,099,219
84,164,063
83,228,906
82,293,750
81,358,594
80,423,438
79,488,281
78,553,125
77,617,969
76,682,813
75,747,656
74,812,500
959,470,313
572,435,859
1,531,906,172
Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
4
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
5
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
6
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
Thi
gian
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
117
Li
sut
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
S tin
thu c
(ng)
S d
nm trc (ng)
S d
cui nm
(ng)
122,921,094
121,570,313
120,219,531
118,868,750
117,517,969
116,167,188
114,816,406
113,465,625
112,114,844
110,764,063
109,413,281
108,062,500
1,385,901,563
1,761,692,098
3,147,593,660
157,728,594
155,995,313
154,262,031
152,528,750
150,795,469
149,062,188
147,328,906
145,595,625
143,862,344
142,129,063
140,395,781
138,662,500
1,778,346,563
3,619,732,709
5,398,079,272
189,720,781
187,635,938
185,551,094
183,466,250
181,381,406
179,296,563
177,211,719
175,126,875
173,042,031
170,957,188
168,872,344
166,787,500
2,139,049,688
6,207,791,162
8,346,840,850
Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
8
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
9
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
Thi
gian
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)
Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)
Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
118
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Li
sut
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00
S tin
thu c
(ng)
S d
nm trc (ng)
S d
cui nm
(ng)
219,295,781
216,885,938
214,476,094
212,066,250
209,656,406
207,246,563
204,836,719
202,426,875
200,017,031
197,607,188
195,197,344
192,787,500
2,472,499,688
9,598,866,977
12,071,366,665
247,448,906
244,729,688
242,010,469
239,291,250
236,572,031
233,852,813
231,133,594
228,414,375
225,695,156
222,975,938
220,256,719
217,537,500
2,789,918,438
13,882,071,665
16,671,990,102
278,161,406
275,104,688
272,047,969
268,991,250
265,934,531
262,877,813
259,821,094
256,764,375
253,707,656
250,650,938
247,594,219
244,537,500
3,136,193,438
19,172,788,617
22,308,982,055