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B GIO DC V O TO

TRNG I HC NGOI THNG


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Cng trnh tham d Cuc thi


Sinh vin nghin cu khoa hc Trng i hc Ngoi thng 2012

Tn cng trnh:

M HNH HOT NG CA HIP HI TIT KIM V CHO VAY


(S&Ls) TRONG LNH VC NH : KINH NGHIM CA M V KH
NNG HNH THNH TI VIT NAM

Nhm ngnh: Kinh doanh v Qun l 1 (KD1)

H Ni, thng 04 nm 2012

Mc lc
Mc lc....................................................................................................................................... 2
Danh mc t vit tt ................................................................................................................. 5
Danh mc bng ......................................................................................................................... 6
Danh mc hnh, biu ........................................................................................................... 7
Li m u ................................................................................................................................ 8
Chng 1: Nhng vn l lun c bn v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v
cho vay (S&Ls) ........................................................................................................................ 13
1.1 Tng quan v Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) .............................................. 13
1.1.1 Khi nim.............................................................................................................. 13
1.1.2 c im ............................................................................................................... 14
1.1.2.1 Tnh tng h ................................................................................................. 14
1.1.2.2 Tnh tch ly ................................................................................................... 15
1.1.2.3 Tnh a phng ............................................................................................. 15
1.1.2.4 Tnh phi li nhun .......................................................................................... 15
1.1.2.5 Mong mun s hu mt ngi nh l ng lc quan trng ca cc thnh vin
.................................................................................................................................... 16
1.1.3 Chc nng ............................................................................................................. 16
1.1.3.1 Chc nng tp hp, qun l, phn phi cc khon ng gp ......................... 16
1.1.3.2 Chc nng trung gian thanh ton ................................................................... 17
1.1.3.3 Chc nng trung gian tn dng ....................................................................... 17
1.1.4 Vai tr ................................................................................................................... 18
1.1.4.1 Gip nhng ngi lao ng c mt cuc sng tt p hn ........................... 18
1.1.4.2 Kch thch s pht trin ca th trng nh ................................................. 18
1.1.4.3 Khuyn khch thi quen tch ly, tit kim trong nhn dn ........................... 19
1.1.4.4 Tn dng mi khon vn nhn ri u t sinh li..................................... 19
1.1.5 C ch hot ng .................................................................................................... 20
1.1.5.1 Tch ly trc, s dng sau ............................................................................... 20

1.1.5.2 Mc u tin s dng vn gim dn theo thi gian ....................................... 20


1.2 M hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) ............................. 21
1.2.1 M hnh hot ng mt ln (Terminating Plan) ................................................... 21
1.2.2 M hnh ni tip (Serial Plan) .............................................................................. 22
1.2.3 M hnh vnh vin (Permanent Plan) .................................................................... 23
1.3 Cc nhn t nh hng n m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(S&Ls)............................................................................................................................... 25
1.3.1Cc nhn t kinh t: ............................................................................................... 25
1.3.1.1 Tng trng kinh t ........................................................................................ 25
1.3.1.2 Hot ng ca th trng bt ng sn: ......................................................... 28
1.3.1.3 Li sut ........................................................................................................... 29
1.3.2 Cc nhn t khc: .................................................................................................. 30
1.3.2.1 Cc qui nh ca php lut i vi th trng bt ng sn v cc nh ch ti
chnh ........................................................................................................................... 30
1.3.2.2 S cnh tranh gia cc nh ch ti chnh ...................................................... 31
1.3.2.3 Tm l ngi dn ........................................................................................... 31
1.3.2.4 Nng lc ca nh qun l ............................................................................... 32
Chng 2: Kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls)
trong lnh vc nh ti M ................................................................................................... 34
2.1 H thng c s php l ca M v S&Ls ................................................................ 34
2.2 M hnh hot ng mt ln ca S&Ls ti M ........................................................ 36
2.3 M hnh ni tip......................................................................................................... 39
2.4 M hnh hot ng vnh vin ca S&Ls .................................................................. 43
2.5 nh gi chung v hot ng ca cc m hnh S&Ls ti M................................ 55
2.5.1 nh gi m hnh mt ln .................................................................................... 55
2.5.2 nh gi m hnh ni tip .................................................................................... 56
2.5.3 nh gi m hnh vnh vin.................................................................................. 57
Chng 3: Kh nng hnh thnh m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti VN ...................................................................................... 59

3.1 Khi qut v tnh hnh hot ng ca th trng ti chnh v th trng nh ti


Vit Nam: ......................................................................................................................... 59
3.1.1 Khi qut v hot ng ca th trng ti chnh ti VN ....................................... 59
3.1.1.1 Hot ng ca th trng ti chnh trong nhng nm va qua ...................... 59
3.1.1.2 u th ca cc NHTM trong vic cung cp cc khon vay mua sm nh cho
khch hng c nhn .................................................................................................... 62
3.1.2 Khi qut v hot ng ca th trng nh ti VN ............................................ 64
3.2 iu kin cho s hnh thnh v pht trin ca S&Ls ti VN ................................ 67
3.2.1 Nhng thun li khi pht trin S&Ls ti VN ........................................................ 67
3.2.1.1 i nt v thc trng dn s, nh v thu nhp ca ngi dn VN ............. 67
3.2.1.2 Nhu cu mua nh ......................................................................................... 69
3.2.1.3 Nhc im ca cc khon vay mua nh hin nay ........................................ 70
3.2.2 Nhng kh khn khi pht trin S&Ls ti VN ....................................................... 71
3.2.2.1 Yu t tm l: ................................................................................................. 71
3.2.2.2 Li th ca cc NHTM................................................................................... 72
3.2.2.3 Gi nh VN qu cao so vi thu nhp .......................................................... 72
3.2.2.4 Cc knh u t ti chnh cha em li hiu qu cao .................................... 73
3.2.2.5 Hot ng chi h VN ................................................................................ 74
3.3 M hnh hot ng d kin ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti Vit Nam .......... 75
3.3.1. Cc gi thit v iu kin ca m hnh ................................................................ 75
3.3.2. M hnh tch ly c nhn ..................................................................................... 77
3.3.3 M hnh S&L ........................................................................................................ 78
3.3.3.1. Cc thnh vin khng vay vn ...................................................................... 79
3.3.3.2. Cc thnh vin c vay vn ............................................................................ 81
Kt lun .................................................................................................................................... 91
Danh mc ti liu tham kho ................................................................................................. 93
Ph lc ..................................................................................................................................... 96

Danh mc t vit tt
Danh mc t vit tt ting Anh
Ch vit tt

Ting Anh

Ting Vit

S&Ls

Savings and loan association

Hip hi tit kim v cho vay

FSLIC

Federal

Savings

and

Loan T chc bo him tit kim v

Insurance Corporation
FIRREA

Financial

cho vay lin bang


Reform, o lut ci cch cc nh ch

Institutions

Recovery, and Enforcement Act

ti chnh

GNP

Gross national product

Tng sn phm quc gia

GDP

Gross domestic product

Tng sn phm quc ni

CPI

Consumer price index

Ch s gi tiu dung

Danh mc t vit tt ting Vit


Ch vit tt

Ting Vit

VN

Vit Nam

HN

H Ni

HCM

H Ch Minh

NHNN

Ngn hng Nh nc

NHTM

Ngn hng thng mi

Danh mc bng
Bng 1: S liu v tng ti sn ca S&Ls v GDP ca M t nm 1940 n 1989 (tnh theo
triu USD) ................................................................................................................................. 25
Bng 2: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1888, 1900 v 1914 ...................... 47
Bng 3: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1914, 1924 v 1930 ...................... 48
Bng 4: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1930, 1937 v 1945 ...................... 48
Bng 5: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1945, 1952, 1959 v 1965 ............ 49
Bng 6: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1965, 1970, 1974 v 1979 ............ 50
Bng 7: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls b ph sn so vi s liu chung ca ngnh
trong nhng nm 80 ca th k XX........................................................................................... 52
Bng 8: S liu v GDP v t trng ng gp ca ngnh xy dng vo GDP ca VN nm
2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 .................................................................................................. 65
Bng 9: S liu v tc tng trng GDP v ngnh xy dng VN giai on 2005 - 2010... 65
Bng 10: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thi gian d kin mua nh ........................................... 69
Bng 11: Kt qu iu tra kho st v ngn sch d kin mua nh.......................................... 70
Bng 12: Kt qu iu tra kho st v cc ngun vn s dng ti tr cho vic mua nh ... 70
Bng 13: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thu nhp/thng ............................................................. 72
Bng 14: Trnh by m hnh tch ly c nhn .......................................................................... 77
Bng 15: Trnh by cc dng tin S&Ls thu c trong mt nm ........................................... 78
Bng 16: Qu trnh tch ly i vi cc thnh vin khng vay vn ......................................... 80
Bng 17: Tm tt qui trnh i vi m hnh thnh vin khng vay vn .................................. 80
Bng 18: Trnh by khon thu t cc thnh vin trong 9 nm u tin .................................... 82
Bng 19: Tnh li vay ca 4 ngi vay vn u tin vo cui nm th nht ........................... 84
Bng 20: Trnh by s li vay phi tr ca nhng ngi vay trong 8 nm u ....................... 85
Bng 21: Trnh by s tin thu c t li vay ........................................................................ 86
Bng 22: Trnh by vic cp vn cho 14 thnh vin cn li .................................................... 87
Bng 23: Trnh by vic phn b li nhun cn li cho cc thnh vin................................... 88
Bng 24: Tm tt qu trnh ca m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn: .......................................... 90
Bng 25: Danh sch 100 ngi tham gia tr li phiu iu tra ................................................ 99
Bng 26: M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn ........................................................................ 106

Bng 27: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc thnh vin) ...................... 109
Bng 28: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc thnh vin
vay vn) .................................................................................................................................. 114
Bng 29: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li) .......................................................... 116

Danh mc hnh, biu


Hnh 1: Minh ha m hnh hot ng mt ln ca S&Ls ......................................................... 22
Hnh 2: Minh ha m hnh hot ng ni tip ca S&Ls ......................................................... 23
Hnh 3: Kt qu chy m hnh Eviews v mi quan h gia 2 bin: Asset v GDP ................ 28
Biu 1: Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi M giai on 1700 - 1840 .................................. 37
Biu 2: GNP thc t bnh qun u ngi giai on 1869 1918 ...................................... 40

Li m u
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti
S pht trin mnh m ca nn kinh t VN trong vng mi nm tr li y
khin cho mc thu nhp ca ngi dn c ci thin mt cch ng k; v thc y
tc th ha din ra mnh m. Nhu cu mua sm nh, c bit hai thnh ph ln
l HN v thnh ph HCM, cng v vy m gia tng nhanh chng1. Tuy nhin, th
trng bt ng sn VN cn cha hon thin, i km vi hin tng thng tin bt
cn xng, nn nh n tay ngi dn b i gi ln rt cao so vi gi tr thc. Cn b
cng chc hoc nhn vin vi mc lng trung bnh khng th trong thi gian ngn t
ti tr cho vic mua nh, m thng phi tm n vay vn ti cc NHTM. Vi mc li
sut cho vay mua nh cn kh cao, ph bin trong khong 18-19%/nm nh hin nay,
th ngi vay vn s phi tr mt khon tin li ln n 1 t ng, cho mt khon vay
ch khong 1.5 t ng trong vng 8 nm.V vy, VN, nhu cu pht trin thm nhng
hnh thc trung gian ti chnh mi c th h tr thng tin v a ra mc li sut hp l
hn cho nhng ngi mua nh l rt cao.
M hnh S&Ls (Savings and Loan Asociation S&Ls) xut hin kh ph bin
M t nhng nm 1930, v chng t c tnh u vit ca mnh trong vic h tr
nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp trung bnh mua hoc sa cha nh , thng qua vic
tp trung cc khon tch ly nh ca cc thnh vin v u t vo nhng knh u t
an ton c sinh li.Cc thnh vin sau c vay li vn ca hip hi vi mc li
sut u i hn ca cc trung gian ti chnh khc, c bit l cc NHTM.
VN hin nay, nhu cu mua nh cn kh ln; trong khi ngi c nhu cu
mua nh hu nh ch tm n cc NHTM tm kim cc dch v ti chnh nh dch v
1

Theo bn bo co nh gi th ha VN ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB) ti VN ngy5/4/2012,tc th


ha ca VN t 3,4%/nm, a s tp trung trong v xung quanh TP.HCM v HN

cho vay v cp tn dng mua nh tr gp. Do vy, s pht trin ca S&Ls c k vng
s mang li cho ngi dn thm nhiu s h tr v thng tin v ti chnh. Tuy nhin,
trc khi cc m hnh ny c ng dng vo th trng VN, cn phi c mt nghin
cu nh gi tng th v cc u nhc im, iu kin pht trin v cc xut
thay i cc hip hi ny c th hot ng hiu qu trong iu kin kinh t, x hi
VN. Xut pht t thc t , nhm nghin cu la chn M hnh hot ng ca
Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh : Kinh nghim ca M v
kh nng hnh thnh ti Vit Nam lm ti cho cng trnh nghin cu khoa hc ca
mnh.

2. Tng quan v tnh hnh nghin cu


S&Ls (S&Ls) pht trin t u th k XIX ti M v Anh.M hnh hot ng
c bn ca cc S&Ls c gii thiu trong nhiu gio trnh ti chnh hin i, tiu biu
nh cun Kinh t hc v Tin t, Ngn hng v Th trng ti chnh2ca tc gi
Frederic S. Mishkinhaycun Th trng ti chnh &cc nh ch ti chnh3ca tc gi
Jeff Madura.
Cc tc ng tch cc v tiu cc ca m hnh trung gian ti chnh ny i vi
th trng ti chnh v th trng nh (ch yu l ti M) cng l i tng ca nhiu
nghin cu, bo co. Mt s v d tiu biu nh: Bi hc t nhng tht bi ca S&L:
Ci gi cho nhng sai lm trong chnh sch cng4Nhu cu v ti sn c tnh thanh
khon ca cc S&Ls: L thuyt, Bng chng v Gi cho chnh sch5

Frederic S. Mishkin (2007), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial markets, 8 th edn, Pearson
Education, Inc, Hong Kong
3
Jeff Madura (2009), Financial Markets and Institutions, 9 th edn, South Western Cengage Learning, Hong Kong
4
Ely Bert & Vicki Vanderhoff (1991), Lessons Learned from the S&LS Debacle: The Price of Failed Public
Policy, bo co s 108. Lewisville, Tex.: Vin nghin cu chnh sch
5
Maurice Weinrobe (2003), Savings and Loan Demand for Liquid Assets: Theory, Evidence and Implications for
Policy, nghin cu do Federal Home Loan Bank Board ti tr

Mc d c lch s pht trin lu i nhiu nc trn th gii nhng m hnh


S&Ls vn hon ton xa l VN. Ngay c cc sinh vin trong lnh vc ti chnh cng
ch bit n hnh thc trung gian ti chnh ny qua mt s gio trnh trong nc, m
tiu biu l"Gio Trnh Ti Chnh-Tin T Ngn Hng", NXB Thng K, 2009 ca
PGS.TS. Nguyn Vn Tin, Hc Vin Ngn Hng. VN hin nay cha c nhng
nghin cu mt cch ton din v kh nng pht trin ca m hnh S&Ls trong tnh
hnh th trng nh ti VN cng nh cc xut cc gii php ci tin m hnh ny
cho ph hp vi trnh kinh t ca nc ta. V l do , ti ny hi vng s cung
cp mt ci nhn tng quan v tim nng ca cc S&Ls nc ta trong thi gian ti.

3. Mc tiu nghin cu
Trn c s nghin cu l lun v kinh nghim hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim
v cho vay ti M, mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l xut c m hnh hot ng
S&Ls d kin cho iu kin ca Vit Nam gp phn thc y s pht trin ca th
trng nh ti VN.
4. i tng v phm vi nghin cu
i tng v phm vi nghin cu ca ti l m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi
tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti th trng M v Vit Nam
Mu kho st: ngi lao ng trong cc doanh nghip trn a bn HN
5. Phng php nghin cu
Phn tch ti liu: nghin cu cc ngun thng tin, d liu c trong sch v,
cc bi bo, cng trnh khoa hc trc v thng tin trn mng Internet lm c
s cho l lun v chng minh cc lp lun.
iu tra bng cu hi: lp bng cu hi kho st thc trng mc sng, mc
thu nhp v nhu cu mua nh ca ngi lao ng.

10

Phng php quan st thc tin: t rt ra c im nn kinh t x hi


VN v so snh nhng c im vi cc nc khc trn th gii.
6. Kt qu nghin cu ca ti
Kt qu nghin cu ca ti bao gm:
- Lm r c cc vn c bn v Hip hi tit kim v cho vay, cc m hnh
hot ng ca Hip hi cng nh nhng u im v nhc im ca tng m hnh
- Ch ra c nhng nhn t chnh tc ng ln hot ng v s hnh thnh ca
cc m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi.
- Nghin cu kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh
ti M.
- Ch ra c nhng thun li v kh khn trong vic hnh thnh v pht trin
hot ng ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti Vit Nam
- xut c m hnh hot ng d kin ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti
Vit Nam.
Nhng thng tin v Hip hi S&Ls cn rt t c bit ti VN, ngay c trong
nhng trng i hc v kinh t v ti chnh. V vy, l mt ti nghin cu kh y
v m hnh S&Ls (S&Ls), nghin cu khoa hc ny hi vng s tr thnh mt ti
liu tham kho hu ch cho qu trnh hc tp v tm hiu ca cc sinh vin chuyn
ngnh ti chnh.
Ngoi ra, do ch li rt ln i vi nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp trung bnh
(cng chc, nhn vin vn phng), m hnh ny c th l mt d n tim nng trong k
hoch ci thin phc li cho nhn vin i vi cc cng ty v doanh nghip (c bit l
cc cng ty v doanh nghip t nhn). Vic vn hnh m hnh ny thc cht l khng
tn km chi ph nhiu, v cc cng ty c th tn dng i ng nhn vin k ton v ti
chnh trong vic qun tr hip hi ny.

11

7.Kt cu ca ti
Ngoi li m u, kt lun, ni dung chnh ca ti nghin cu gm 3 chng:
Chng 1: Nhng vn l lun c bn v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit
kim v cho vay (S&Ls)
Chng 2: Kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho
vay ti M
Chng 3: Kh nng hnh thnh m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v
cho vay S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti VN

12

Chng 1: Nhng vn l lun c bn v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit


kim v cho vay (S&Ls)
1.1 Tng quan v Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls)
1.1.1 Khi nim
S&Ls l mt nh ch ti chnh mang tnh hp tc v tng h, hot ng di
s cho php ca chnh quyn a phng (m M l chnh quyn cc bang), trong
cc thnh vin cng ng gp v li ch tng tr v u th ti chnh.Hip hi ny
nhn cc khon tin gi nh l t cc thnh vin v ch yu cung cp cc khon vay
bt ng sn v mua sm khc.6
Ban u, hot ng ca cc S&Ls b gii hn trong vic cung cp cc khon vay
cc thnh vin mua (xy, hoc sa cha) nh v chng s t ng gii tn khi tt
c cc thnh vin t c mc ch ca mnh. Nhng sau , S&Ls bt u chp
nhn c cc thnh vin tham gia khng v nhu cu mua nh, m c nhu cu gi tin tit
kim hng li.
S&Ls dn dn c php c thm nhng chc nng ca cc nh ch ti chnh
khc nh: m ti khon rt tin (t nm 1971), ti khon giao dch (t nm 1980),
cung cp cc khon vay thng mi ln n 10% gi tr tng ti sn. Cc chc nng
ny khin S&Ls khng cn duy tr c nhng c im v chc nng nguyn thy
ca chng , m ngy cng tr nn tng ng vi cc nh ch ti chnh nhn tin gi
nh NHTM hay ngn hng tit kim.

Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v vn
hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng II, tr. 10

13

V mc ch chnh ca cng trnh l nghin cu m hnh cc Hip hi tit kim


v cho vay di gc l mt ngun ti tr cho vic vay mua nh, chng ti s ch tp
trung nghin cu cc c im v chc nng nguyn thy ca nh ch ti chnh ny,
m khng i su vo cc nghip v c trng ca cc nh ch ti chnh khc.
Ngy nay, S&Ls (Savings and Loan Association S&Ls) cn c bit n
M vi tn gi "Thrifts" (c th tm dch l cc "T chc tit kim").Tuy nhin, khi cc
S&Ls u tin c thnh lp, chng mang kh nhiu cc tn gi gn tng t
nhau: "Hip hi xy dng" (Building Association), "Hip hi xy dng v cho vay"
(Building and Loan Association), "Ngn hng hp tc" (Cooperative Bank), "Hip hi
tng tr cho vay" (Mutual Loan Association).
Anh, Ireland v cc nc thuc Khi thnh vng chung cng tn ti cc t
chc tng t vi tn gi "Lin hip xy dng" (Building Society) hoc "Ngn hng
tit kim tin cy" (Trustee Saving Bank). 7
1.1.2 c im
1.1.2.1 Tnh tng h
Cc thnh vin trong cng mt hip hi cng nhau ng gp, dng khon tin
thu c cho nhau vay, hng li nhun cng nhau; v thm ch h l nhng cng
nhn, nhng ngi lm cng cng lm vic vi nhau. Tnh tng h to ra s bnh
ng gia cc thnh vin.H c quyn li, kin, c quyn v c hi ngang nhau
trong hip hi; c quyn vn hnh, kim sot v qun l t chc nh nhau; cng hng
li sut cng nh chu cc khon n bng nhau (nu c). c im ny kh quan trng
v, vi c im ny m cc S&Ls thng hn ch phn ng gp ca cc thnh vin
7

Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v vn
hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng II, tr. 9

14

(khng chp nhn cc khon ng gp qu cao so vi mc quy nh) ngn chn vic
mt s c nhn thu tm quyn li trong hip hi, dn n vic mt bnh ng.
1.1.2.2 Tnh tch ly
Ngun vn ca cc Hip hi ch yu n t cc khon ng gp tit kim nh
l hng thng ca cc thnh vin. S thnh cng sau ny ca cc S&Ls c coi l mt
minh chng tuyt vi cho tc dng ca cc khon tit kim c mc ch h thng, v
su xa hn l li ch ca thi quen tch ly. (Lu : S&Ls nhn mnh n thi quen
tch ly, mt mc cao hn l tit kim n thun, l vic u t cc khon tin d
ra mt cch an ton nhng vn sinh li, thay v ch ct gi cc khon tin mt ch)
1.1.2.3 Tnh a phng
Hot ng ca cc S&Ls ch c th tp trung phm vi a phng (c th M
th ch trong phm vi 1 bang). Thc t chng mnh rng mi n lc m rng phm
vi hot ng ca cc S&Ls ra ngoi bn knh khu vc trong cc thnh vin u quen
bit ln nhau , u t ra khng an ton hoc tht bi hon ton. Kt qu ny khng c
g l qu bt ng bi cc S&Ls c xy dng trn c s tnh tng h, tc l s h
tr ln nhau ca cc thnh vin. Vic m rng phm vi hot ng ca S&LS s khin
mi lin h gia cc thnh vin tr nn lng lo, hot ng ca S&Ls v th mt i tnh
m bo.
1.1.2.4 Tnh phi li nhun
Cc S&Ls hu ht u l cc hip hi hot ng phi li nhun.Cc thnh vin
ng cc khon tin hng thng khng phi hng li, m l mt cch tch ly c h
thng mua nh.Mc tiu ca S&Ls l h tr cc thnh vin mua (xy) c nh.Khi
mc ch ny t c, tc l mi thnh vin c tr gip mua nh, hip hi s t
ng gii tn.y chnh l c im phn bit S&Ls vi cc nh ch cho vay khc

15

nh NHTM.Thm vo , cc S&Ls c vn hnh v qun l bng chnh cc thnh


vin ca n, v vy m bo c tnh kinh t v cng bng.
1.1.2.5 Mong mun s hu mt ngi nh l ng lc quan trng ca cc thnh
vin
Trn thc t, y c coi l nn tng ca vic thnh lp cc S&Ls, bi vic c
th s hu mt ngi nh l mt trong nhng c m ln ca mi ngi. Trong khi ,
cc thnh vin ca cc S&Ls phn ln u l nhng cng nhn, hoc nhng ngi lm
cng n lng c thu nhp thp; nu khng c S&Ls h hu nh khng th c kh
nng bin c m thnh hin thc c. Mt phn l do thu nhp ca h qu thp, mt
khc l do cc ngn hng thi by gi khng nhn cc khon tin qu nh (ch vo
khong 1$/tun hay 4$/thng). V th, khi bit nhng khon tin nh mnh ng gp
hng thng s i li mt ngi nh, cc thnh vin ca hip hi c ng lc rt ln
tham gia.
1.1.3 Chc nng
1.1.3.1 Chc nng tp hp, qun l, phn phi cc khon ng gp
Chc nng c bn u tin ca cc S&Ls l nhn cc khon ng gp nh l
ca cc thnh vin (thng ch vo khong 1$/tun).Nh c S&Ls, cc khon tin nh
ny s c tp hp thnh mt khon tin ln hn.Sau , ban qun tr ca hip hi,
cng chnh l cc thnh vin, s chu trch nhim khin cho khon tin ny sinh li
bng cch u t khon tin mi ny vo nhng knh u t an ton nh mua cc tri
phiu, cng tri ca chnh quyn bang v lin bang hoc gi vo cc ngn hng ln
hoc cho chnh cc thnh vin c nhu cu trong hip hi vay (vi li sut thp) . Khon
tin gc v li, cng vi cc khon thu khc t n mc cam kt ban u s c
phn chia u cho cc thnh vin (cha vay tin ca hip hi) vo ngy ht hn.

16

Nh c chc nng ny m cc khon tit kim cc nh ca cc c nhn c tp


hp li, c s dng mt cch an ton v hp l cui cng tr li cho h mt khon
tin c gi tr ln hn (sau mt khong thi gian thng l nh hn khong thi cn
thit mt mnh h t tit kim c mt khon tin tng t); gip h ti tr
cho vic mua nh.y l chc nng nguyn thy ca cc S&Ls, cng l c s ca mi
hot ng ca S&Ls. Cc chc nng c thm sau ny u l da trn chc nng
nguyn thy ny.
1.1.3.2 Chc nng trung gian thanh ton
T nhng nm 1970 tr i, cc S&Ls bt u c php m cc ti khon c
th pht sc v t nm 1980 c php m cc ti khon giao dch8. V c bn, chc
nng ny khng c g khc vi chc nng trung gian thanh ton ca NHTM.
1.1.3.3 Chc nng trung gian tn dng
Ban u cc S&Ls khng c coi l thc hin chc nng trung gian tn dng.
Mc d cc hip hi ny c nhn tin gi tit kim v cho vay li, nhng cc khon
cho vay li ch yu l trong ni b cc thnh vin ca hip hi.Mi n sau nm 1980,
vi s ra i ca o lut phi iu tit cc t chc nhn tin gi v kim sot tin t,
cc S&Ls c php pht hnh th tn dng v cp cc khon tn dng trong lnh vc
tiu dng c gi tr ln n 20% tng ti sn ca hip hi, v cc khon tn dng trong
lnh vc bt ng sn, kinh doanh, nng nghip khng qu 10% tng ti sn.9

Thng tin tham kho trn website www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association
9
Thng tin tham kho trn website www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association

17

1.1.4 Vai tr
1.1.4.1 Gip nhng ngi lao ng c mt cuc sng tt p hn
y l vai tr d nhn thy nht ca cc S&Ls i vi cc thnh vin ca
mnh.Vi mc ch nguyn thy ca mnh, S&LS gip cc thnh vin t c c m
c th s hu mt ngi nh cho ring mnh v gia nh. i vi nhiu ngi lao ng
ngho th y c th coi l mc tiu c i ca h. Hn na, vic s hu mt ngi nh
s l khi u ha hn cho mt cuc sng tt p hn (ch nhn ca n c th cho thu
hoc bt u cng vic kinh doanh ca ring h).
Ngay c khi cc thnh vin khng c nhu cu mua nh, th vic tham gia vo
S&Ls cng gip cho cc thnh vin tch ly c mt s vn trong mt thi gian ngn
hn khong thi gian m h phi t mnh tit kim.
1.1.4.2 Kch thch s pht trin ca th trng nh
S ra i ca cc S&Ls khin cho th trng nh tr nn si ng hn, bi gi
y nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp thp cng c nhu cu mua (xy dng ) nh .
Vo nhng nm 1840, hn mt na s nh ca thnh ph Philladenphia, bang
Pensylvania, Hoa K, c xy dng thng qua cc S&Ls. S thnh vng ca thnh
ph ny cho n nay vn c cho l nh mt phn tc ng tch cc ca cc hip hi
ny. V vy m Philadelphia cn c bit n vi ci tn: "Thnh ph ca nhng ngi
nh" (City of homes).10
Ngc li, trong thi k bng n v pht trin th v nh cui th k XIX,
do tc ng ca cuc Cch mng Cng nghip ln II, s lng cc S&Ls cng tng
mt cch t bin. iu ny cho thy vai tr to ln cng nh mi quan h cht ch ca

10

Theo Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v
vn hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully
conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng IV, tr. 35

18

cc hip hi ny i vi th trng nh , c bit l nhng khu vc ang bt u


th ha.
1.1.4.3 Khuyn khch thi quen tch ly, tit kim trong nhn dn
Nn tng ca S&Ls chnh l s tch ly mt cch an ton, khn ngoan v c h
thng cc khon tin nh to thnh nhng khon vn ln hn. S thnh cng ca
cc m hnh S&Ls chnh l minh chng r rng nht cho hiu qu ca vic tch ly c
h thng ny. Pht trin cc m hnh S&Ls, v th chnh l mt trong nhng cch hu
hiu nht khuyn khch thi quen tt p ny trong dn chng. cng l l do v
sao nh ch ti chnh ny c Quc hi v Cc D tr Lin Bang M khuyn khch
pht trin thng qua nhng quy nh cc k u i cho chng.
1.1.4.4 Tn dng mi khon vn nhn ri u t sinh li
Vai tr ny ca cc S&Ls khng thc s r nt trong thi gian u hnh thnh.
S&Ls tp trung nhng khon tin nh l thnh mt khon tin ln hn ri u t vo
nhng knh u t an ton khc nh: tri phiu, cng tri, hoc gi vo cc ngn hng
ln. Bng cch ny, cc knh u ni trn c th huy ng thm c mt ngun vn
khc trong nhn dn, m nu nh khng c cc S&Ls, h chc chn s b qua; v ngn
hng bnh thng s khng bao gi tip nhn cc khon tin qu nh nh vy.
Vai tr l mt knh huy ng vn ca cc S&Ls ngy cng tng khi nh ch
ny c Quc hi cho php m rng hot ng cp tn dng c trong nhng lnh vc
khng phi l tiu dng, nh kinh doanh, bt ng sn, nng nghip.

19

1.1.5 C ch hot ng
1.1.5.1Tch ly trc, s dng sau
Mt trong nhng c im ca cc S&Ls l tnh tch ly.Ngun vn ca S&Ls
khng phi sn c nh cc NHTM.V vy, cc thnh vin ca hip hi phi tch ly
trong mt thi gian nht nh mi c ngun vn tin hnh cho vay.
Tuy nhin, mi thnh vin khng nht thit phi tch ly c ton b s tin
cn thit trc khi c s dng. Do tnh tng tr, S&Ls cho php mt s thnh vin
c s dng vn trc khi vic tch ly hon thnh, vi iu kin h ng tr thm
mt mc li sut (hoc phn b ri ro). Mc li sut ny c coi l ph cc thnh
vin vay vn u tin s dng phn tch ly ca cc thnh vin khc.
1.1.5.2 Mc u tin s dng vn gim dn theo thi gian
Theo c ch ny, cc thnh vin vay vn u tin s phi tr mc li sut cao
nht.(Tin li c ng hng thng cng vi tin gc). Cng v sau, mc li sut vay
vn cng gim dn.V nhng thnh vin nhn tin cui cng vo ngy o hn s
khng phi chu bt k mt mc li sut no. l do ngi s dng vn u tin c
mc ri ro thp nht, nn h phi chu mt mc li cao nht b li li th m
mnh c hng. Cn ngi s dng vn cui cng chu s ri ro cao nht, nn
khng phi tr li sut.

20

1.2 M hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay (S&Ls)11


1.2.1 M hnh hot ng mt ln (Terminating Plan)
Trong m hnh hot ng mt ln, v mt l thuyt, hip hi s pht hnh cc
c phn (shares) mt ln vo ngy u tin thnh lp hip hi v cc thnh vin
mun tham gia s phi ng k mua c phn vo ngy ny. Mi c phn u c mnh
gi, mc ng gp v li nhun bng nhau ti mi thi im. (Gi tr thi gian ca tin
t vo thi k ny cha c tnh n). V vy, nu c thnh vin tham gia vo sau
ngy pht hnh u tin, thnh vin s phi tr s tin bng mc ng gp tch ly
t ngy pht hnh u tin n lc thnh vin bt u tham gia.
Hng thng (c th l hang tun, ty theo quy nh ca tng hip hi), cc thnh
vin ca hip hi s phi np s tin theo mc ng gp quy nh ban u. Mc
ng gp ny l kh nh i vi tng thnh vin, v h khng th gi tit kim bt
c mt t chc tn dng no vi s vn nh nh vy. Tuy nhin, tt c mi thnh vin
ca hip hi cng ng gp s to thnh mt s vn ln hn rt nhiu. S vn tch
ly ny s c dng cho cc thnh vin ca hip hi vay dn mua nh. Mc vay s
bng ng mnh gi ca c phiu pht hnh ban u. Nhng thnh vin vay tin
mua nh u tin, ngoi vic ng mc ng gp hng thng nh cc thnh vin khc,
s phi tr thm mt khon tin li. S tin li ny, cng vi tin pht np tin ng
gp chm, chnh l li nhun chnh ca hip hi. Cn nu khng c thnh vin no ca
hip hi c nhu cu vay tin sm mua nh th khon tin tch ly s c em u
t vo nhng knh u t an ton, hoc n gin l gi ngn hng hng li.

11

Cc m hnh di y c trnh by li da trn cc m t ca Henry S. Rosenthal (1920), Ton th v cc


Hip hi xy dng, tit kim v cho vay: Cch t chc v vn hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan
and Savings Associations: How to organize and successfully conduct them), ti bn ln th t, American
Building Association News Co., Chicago, Chng VII v Horace F. Clark, PhD & Frank A. Chase (1927), Cc
yu t ca Hip hi xy dngv cho vay hin i (Elements of the modern Building and Loan Associations), The
MacMillan Company , New York, Chng III

21

Khi hip hi tch ly s tin tr cho mi thnh vin theo mnh gi quy
nh trc ca c phiu, hip hi s gii tn. Phn li cn li (nu c sau khi tnh ton
cc chi ph khc) s c chia u cho cc c phiu.
Trong trng hp c thnh vin mun ngng tham gia hip hi, h s c
hon tr li ton b s tin ng gp h tch ly c v mt phn li nhun (tuy
nhin thp hn li nhun m cc thnh vin li s nhn c). Khon li nhun li
ca nhng thnh vin ngng tham gia trc thi hn cng s l mt khon thu nhp
ca hip hi.
Hnh 1: Minh ha m hnh hot ng mt ln ca S&Ls

1.2.2 M hnh ni tip (Serial Plan)


V c bn, m hnh ni tip chnh l cc m hnh hot ng mt ln din ra lin
tip. Khi m hnh u tin din ra c mt thi gian tng i di th chi ph tham gia
hip hi tr nn t . Lc , ban qun tr s bt u chy m hnh th hai cc
thnh vin mi c nhu cu c th tham gia. Hoc cc thnh vin c nhn c tin sau

22

khi m hnh u tin o hn nhng khng c nhu cu mua nh s tip tc tham gia
vo m hnh th hai. Cc m hnh nh vy c tip tc cho n khi ngi lao ng
khng cn nhu cu gi tin hoc mua nh.
Hnh 2: Minh ha m hnh hot ng ni tip ca S&Ls

1.2.3 M hnh vnh vin (Permanent Plan)


M hnh vnh vin cng bt u bng vic pht hnh cc c phn ging nh m
hnh hot ng mt ln. Cc c phn cng c quy nh mnh gi v mc ng gp.
Tuy nhin, mt thnh vin c th chn mua nhiu c phn ty theo kh nng ti chnh
ca mnh, thay v b gii hn ch c mua mt c phn. Sau ny, trong qu trnh tham
gia, cc thnh vin cng phi np mc ng gp da trn s c phn ng k mua.
Nhng khc vi m hnh hot ng mt ln trong cc thnh vin phi ng gp
nh k bt buc (v nu khng ng ng hn s phi np pht), cc thnh vin trong
m hnh vnh vin c th np phn ng gp theo thi gian thun tin nht vi h v s
tin ng gp ty (min l ln hn mc ng gp ti thiu quy nh ban u). V v
vy, trong m hnh vnh vin khng c khon tin pht cho vic chm ng gp.
Nhng thnh vin tham gia sau cng khng phi tr khon ng gp tch ly ging nh
trong m hnh hot ng mt ln.

23

S d nh vy l do c ch tnh li nhun ca hai m hnh l khc nhau. i vi


m hnh hot ng mt ln, li nhun c chia u trn s c phn. Do vy, cn thit
phi khin cho cc c phn u c mc tch ly nh nhau. Cn i vi m hnh vnh
vin, li nhun s c tnh da trn gi tr m tng thnh vin ng gp c. Thnh
vin ng gp c cng nhiu th s cng c hng li nhun cao hn.
C ch cho vay ca m hnh vnh vin khng c g khc bit so vi m hnh
hot ng mt ln. Cc thnh vin c nhu cu s c vay vn mua nh vi li sut
thp (Lng vn vay bng vi mnh gi ca cc c phn m thnh vin ng k
mua lc ban u). Sau , cng vi vic np mc ng gp, cc thnh vin vay vn
s phi np thm mt khon li vay. Cc thnh vin cha hoc khng c nhu cu mua
nh khi o hn s nhn c s tin bng mnh gi ng k mua.
V s c phn ng k mua lc u c th khc nhau, thi im np cc khon
ng gp v tr gi ca cc khon ng gp ca tng thnh vin cng s khc nhau nn
trong m hnh vnh vin, khng c mt ngy o hn cho mi thnh vin (ni cch
khc mi thnh vin s c mt ngy o hn ring ca mnh). ng nh tn gi, nu c
thnh vin mi tham gia hoc cc thnh vin c cn mun tip tc gi tin nhn li
th m hnh ny s cn tip tc hot ng.
Vic rt tin khi hip hi cng rt linh ng. Cc thnh vin c th ty rt
mt phn hoc ton b s tin tch ly c v phn li tng ng vi s tin rt ra khi
cn thit. Li nhun s c tnh da trn s tin cn tip tc gi tham gia ti hip hi.

24

1.3 Cc nhn t nh hng n m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho


vay (S&Ls)
1.3.1Cc nhn t kinh t:
Tng t nh cc nh ch ti chnh khc, hot ng ca S&Ls v s hnh thnh
nn cc m hnh hot ng ca cc S&Ls cng rt nhy cm vi nhng bin ng ca
nn kinh t. Sau y, chng ta s xem xt nh hng ca mt s nhn t kinh t n
S&Ls:
1.3.1.1 Tng trng kinh t
Theo Jeff Madura: Financial Markets and Institutions, 7e, Thomson SouthWestern, 2006, s tng trng ca nn kinh t c th lm gia tng cc dng tin ca
S&Ls thng qua vic thc y nhu cu vay tiu dng v vay nh ca cc h gia nh;
v vy, n gip S&Ls c th cung cp nhiu khon vay hn. Bn cnh , trong nhng
thi k kinh t tng trng v n nh,cht lng cc khon vay cng tt hn nn s
lng n xu thng gim. Khng ch vy, nhu cu i vi nhng dch v ti chnh
khc (v d nh cc dch v bt ng sn, bo him) ca cc S&Ls cng c xu hng
tng, bi v khi , cc c nhn v h gia nh c thu nhp cao hn v s tin nhn ri
cng nhiu hn.
chng minh iu ny, ta c th dng cc s liu thc t ca nn kinh t M
giai on t nm 1940-1989:
Bng 1: S liu v tng ti sn ca S&Ls v GDP ca M t nm 1940 n 1989 (tnh
theo triu USD)
Nm

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

Total
asset 1

5,672

6,011

6,109

6,604

7,458

8,747

10,202

11,687

101,400

126,700

161,900

198,600

219,800

223,000

222,200

244,100

GDP 2

25

Nm
Total
asset 1

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

13,028

14,650

16,846

19,164

22,585

26,638

31,736

37,719

GDP 2
269,100 267,200 293,700 339,300 358,300 379,300 380,400 414,700

Nm
Total
asset 1

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

42,655

47,907

54,978

63,401

71,314

81,889

1962

1963

93,390 107,390

GDP 2
437,400 461,100 467,200 506,600 526,400 544,800 585,700 617,800

Nm
Total
asset 1

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

119,356 129,459 134,024 143,553 152,907 162,149 176,200 206,303

GDP 2
663,600 719,100 787,700 832,400 909,800 984,400

Nm
Total
asset 1

1,038,3
00

1,126,8
00

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

243,100

271,900

295,500

338,200

391,900

459,200

1,237,900

1,382,300

1,499,500

1,637,700

1,824,600

2,030,100

GDP 2

26

Nm
Total
asset 1

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

523,600

579,300

629,800

663,800

707,600

773,400

2,293,800

2,562,200

2,788,100

3,126,800

3,253,200

3,534,600

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

902,000

948,200

961,800

974,300

932,000

755,700

3,930,900

4,217,500

4,460,100

4,736,400

5,100,400

5,482,100

GDP 2

Nm
Total
asset 1
GDP 2

: Tng ti sn ca cc S&Ls, bao gm: cc khon cho vay mua nh (mortgage loans

outstanding), tin mt v chng khon u t (cash and investment securities) v cc ti sn


khc. n v tnh tng ti sn: triu USD.
2

: GDP tnh theo n v: triu USD.

(S liu trn c ly t website: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab1951-1994.htm


vo 22h21 th 7 ngy 07/04/2012)

Sau khi chy d liu trn phn mm Eviews vi bin c lp l GDP v bin
ph thuc l ASSET (Total asset), ta thu c kt qu nh sau:

27

Hnh 3: Kt qu chy m hnh Eviews v mi quan h gia 2 bin: Asset v GDP

Nh vy, mi quan h gia tng ti sn v GDP c biu din theo hm:


ASSET = 0.207027*GDP 24275.73
Kim nh Fisher cho thy hm ph hp, R2 = 95.88%.
Do , tng quan gia tng ti sn ca S&Ls v GDP l tng quan dng. Khi nn
kinh t tng trng (GDP tng) th hot ng ca cc S&Ls cng tr nn si ng hn,
th hin qua s gia tng ca tng ti sn.
1.3.1.2 Hot ng ca th trng bt ng sn:
Chc nng chnh ca S&Ls l ti tr cho nhu cu mua sm, xy dng nh ca
ngi dn. Bn cnh , mt trong nhng ngun thu ch yu ca S&Ls l li sut t
cc khon vay tiu dng ny. V vy, hot ng ca S&Ls ph thuc rt nhiu vo cc
din bin trn th trng bt ng sn.

28

Chng hn nh th trng c nhng tn hiu xu v nh nh t lin tc suy


gim s to cho ngi dn tm l nghi ngi, khin cu v cung v nh u gim v s
giao dch mua bn nh cng hn ch.Khi , nhu cu tham gia S&Ls v cu v cc
khon vay tiu dng u tr nn rt thp, nh hng n cc dng tin ra vo S&Ls.
Ngc li, khi gi nh tng mnh (v d do chi ph vt liu xy dng, chi ph nhn
cng tng) th nhu cu v nh cng gim, lm gim s lng cc khon cho vay ca
cc S&Ls.
Nh vy, iu kin l tng nht cho cc S&Ls hot ng l th trng bt ng
sn hot ng n nh v tng trng u.iu ny to cho ngi dn tm l n nh,
thc y h tham gia vo cc S&Ls nhiu hn.
1.3.1.3 Li sut
Theo Jeff Madura: Financial Markets and Institutions, 7e, Thomson SouthWestern, 2006, cc lung tin ca S&Ls chu tc ng ngc chiu ca nhng thay i
ca li sut. Trc tin, ta s xt nhng h qu trong trng hp li sut phi ri ro
gim ko theo cc loi li sut khc trn th trng cng gim. Li sut gim c th
lm thu nhp t li vay gim, tuy nhin, trn thc t, cu i vi cc khon vay ca
S&Ls cng tng mnh. Bn cnh , nhng khon cho vay trc ca S&Ls vn
c tnh theo li sut c nh t trc v s khng chu s iu chnh theo thay i
ca li sut th trng cho n khi o hn. Trong khi , ngun vn ca cc S&Ls
ph thuc ch yu vo cc khon tin gi ngn hn, m li sut phi tr thay i ty
thuc vo s bin i li sut th trng. Ni mt cch khc, chi ph cc S&Ls phi b
ra to lp cc qu gim khi li sut gim.

29

Ngc li, khi li sut tng s lm gim cc dng tin ca S&Ls, bi v mc li


sut m cc Hip hi ny phi tr cho ngi gi tin s tng nhanh hn so vi khon
li vay thu c t vic cho vay v u t.
Phn tch su hn, ta thy li sut cng chu nh hng t nhiu nhn t khc,
bao gm: mc lm pht k vng, tc tng trng kinh t, cung tin v s thm ht
ngn sch.C th l khi tc tng trng kinh t, t l lm pht v mc thm ht
ngn sch tng th li sut c xu hng tng. Trong khi , cung tin tng c th tc
ng theo c hai chiu, l: cung tin tng th cung qu kh dng ca chnh ph tng,
khin li sut gim. Tuy nhin, cung tin tng li ng thi to p lc lm lm pht k
vng tng v h qu l li sut tng.
1.3.2 Cc nhn t khc:
1.3.2.1 Cc qui nh ca php lut i vi th trng bt ng sn v cc nh ch
ti chnh
Cng nh mi ch th hot ng trn th trng ti chnh, cc S&Ls chu s
iu chnh ca php lut v phi tun theo cc qui nh trong ngnh. Cc qui nh ny
c th tc ng cng chiu hoc ngc chiu n hot ng ca S&Ls. Chng hn, khi
gim thiu nhng qui nh gii hn v cc loi dch v, mt S&Ls c th cung cp
nhiu dch v ti chnh hn cho cc khch hng. Tuy nhin, cng lc , s ni lng
qui nh ny cng c th gy ra hu qu l S&Ls s tham gia vo nhng hot ng
cha ng nhiu ri ro hn, dn n hu qu l n tr nn km hiu qu hn, mt th
phn, nn cc dng tin k vng s gim.
Bn cnh , nh phn tch trn, cc S&Ls ph thuc rt nhiu vo cc
din bin trn th trng bt ng sn. Do , nhng thay i chnh sch qun l i
vi bt ng sn cng c nh hng n hot ng S&Ls. C th, khi Nh nc mun
thc y th trng nh thng qua s h tr cho cc doanh nghip xy dng, gi nh
30

s gim, c tc dng kch cu. Kt qu l s c thm nhiu ngi dn tham gia v


vay tin t S&Ls mua nh.Trong khi , nu Nh nc kim ch s pht trin ca
th trng bt ng sn, v d nh qui nh tng mc li sut sn i vi cc khon vay
mua nh t, hot ng ca S&Ls s b nh hng tiu cc v s ch c t ngi mun
vay vi mc li sut cao nh vy.
1.3.2.2 S cnh tranh gia cc nh ch ti chnh
C th ni cc NHTM l i th ln nht ca cc S&Ls bi v l nh ch ti
chnh nhn gi ln nht v c lch s hot ng lu i.Ngy nay, cc ngn hng
thng cho khch hng vay tiu dng tr gp cng nh cung cp nhiu sn phm nhm
h tr ti chnh cho vic mua nh.Ngoi ra, tuy khng trc tip ti tr cho nhu cu mua
nh ca dn c, cc qu tn dng, qu tng h cng l nhng knh u t hiu qu
gip cc c nhn v h gia nh kim li t cc khon tin tit kim nhn ri, t tch
ly ti chnh mua hoc xy nh. V vy, nhng nn kinh t, ni cc loi nh ch
ti chnh pht trin a dng th mc cnh tranh tr nn kh cng thng, cc S&Ls
cn xy dng nhng chnh sch hp dn nhm thu ht s quan tm ca ngi dn.
1.3.2.3 Tm l ngi dn
Nh l mt ti sn c gi tr ln. nhiu nc ng, ngi dn thng tch
ly tin trc, cho n khi hoc gn mi quyt nh mua nh v h c tm l coi
trng cn nh v mong mun n nh ch . Ngoi ra, v s ri ro, ngi dn khu
vc ny cng thng ch vay mn tin t bn b, ngi thn. Do vy, h s cm thy
e d vi mt nh ch ti chnh chuyn hot ng trong lnh vc cung cp cc khon
vay mua nh nh S&Ls. Yu t ny c th lm hot ng ca cc S&Ls tr nn km
hiu qu hn cc nc ng.

31

1.3.2.4 Nng lc ca nh qun l


Theo Jeff Madura: Financial Markets and Institutions, 7e, Thomson SouthWestern, 2006, nng lc qun l S&Ls tc ng ln n nhng lung tin k vng
trong tng lai. Nh qun l ti gii phi l ngi hiu bit v vn dng ti a c
cc ngun lc bn ngoi (nhng ngun lc m bn thn S&Ls khng th kim sot
c nh tc tng trng kinh t, li sut, cc qui nh php l) a ra cc quyt
nh ni b trong t chc.
V d nh da trn k vng v li sut, ngi qun l cn quyt nh c nn gia
tng cc khon cho vay vi li sut c nh.Khng ch vy, h cn c th tn dng
nhng thay i v qui nh, chnh sch bng vic cung cp danh mc sn phm a
dng nhm phc v nhng i tng khch hng ring bit. Ngoi ra, h cng bit cn
phi s dng cng ngh gim thiu chi ph hoc cc chng khon phi sinh thay
i li sut v phng nga ri ro.
Tm li, hot ng ca mt S&Ls chu tc ng ca rt nhiu yu t: kinh t, x
hi, chnh tr, php lutTrong s , c rt nhiu yu t thuc v mi trng bn
ngoi m t chc khng th t kim sot c (v d nh cc yu t kinh t, php lut),
nhng cng c mt s yu t thuc v ch quan ca hip hi (chng hn nh nng lc
ca ngi qun l). Do vy, khi xem xt hot ng ca mt S&Ls, ta cn nhn nh v
phn tch r: u l yu t hip hi c th t khc phc thay i v u l yu t cn
phi d bo, tn dng hoc phng trnh. iu s gip S&Ls xy dng nhng chnh
sch thch hp hot ng mt cch hiu qu nht.
Ngoi ra, trong phn tch trn, tc ng ca cc yu t u mang tnh c lp
vi nhau.Tuy nhin, trn thc t, cc nhn t nh hng thng c mi lin h cht
ch, tng tc ln nhau.V d nh khi nn kinh t tng trng n nh th th trng bt
ng sn s hot ng tt, khin ngi dn c tm l tin tng, thc y h tham gia
32

S&Ls nhiu hn v tng nhu cu vay mua nh . Tuy nhin, tng trng kinh t
thng i km vi lm pht, t l lm pht tng lm mt bng gi c trn th trng
tng v li sut tng. iu ny c th lm gim cu i vi cc khon vay tiu dng
ca dn c cng nh cc dng tin ca S&Ls. V vy, khi phn tch cc nhn t nh
hng n hot ng ca S&Ls, ta cn ch n mi lin h gia chng.

33

Chng 2: Kinh nghim v m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho vay
(S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti M
2.1 H thng c s php l ca M v S&Ls
o lut Corcoran (The Corcoran Act): c c quan lp php thng qua vo
thng 5 nm 1891. Trc , nm 1890, cuc hp ca Lin on cc hip hi xy dng
bang Ohio (Ohio Building Association League) thng nht v vic ku gi hi ng
lp php sp xp li cc lut hin hnh c lin quan n hot ng ca hip hi xy
dng cng nh b sung thm vo nhng thay i cn thit. Sau nhiu ln tho lun,
sa cha, o lut ny thng nht kin ca cc hip hi xy dng trn ton bang
v c c quan lp php thng qua. o lut ny tn ti trong sut 17 nm sau
m khng c bt c s thay i hay chnh sa no. Di tc ng ca cc iu khon
trong o lut, cc hip hi xy dng Ohio pht trin thnh vng v tng ti sn
ca h tng trng trn 300% trong vng 19 nm.
o lut Russell (The Russell Act): c c quan lp php thng qua vo nm
1909. Nm 1908, Lin on cc hip hi xy dng bang Ohio hp ti Youngstown
v ng rng: y l thi k pht trin mnh m ca cc hip hi xy dng v nhu
cu xy dng ang gia tng ng k, i hi cc hip hi phi c nhng ci tin v k
hoch v phng thc hot ng cng nh cc qui nh php l trc (c th l o
lut Corcoran) cn c iu chnh. 1 nm sau , 1909, nhng ni dung thay i
c chun b k lng, trnh v c chp thun bi c quan lp php, v c bit
n vi tn gi l o lut Russell.
o lut Stamp: do Quc hi ban hnh nm 1898 c iu khon qui nh : trng
hp cc c phiu v tri phiu c pht hnh bi cc hip hi hp tc xy dng v
cho vay (co-operative building and loan associations), cc hip hi xy dng v cho
vay v cc cng ty ch cung cp cc khon vay cho cc c ng, th s c min tr
thu.

34

iu 15 ca lut Doanh thu khn cp (The Emergency Revenue Law) do Quc


hi thng qua ngy 22/10/1914 cng c iu khon min thu ging ht nh qui nh
trong o lut Stamp.
Lut thu thu nhp (Income Tax Law) thng qua ngy 8/9/1916: Khon 1 iu
11 c qui nh :Theo iu khon ny, khng nh thu i vi cc thu nhp ca hip
hi xy dng v cho vay ni a, ngn hng hp tc khng pht hnh chng khon vn,
c t chc v vn hnh nhm mc ch tng tr, phi li nhun.
o lut mng 3 thng 3 (The act of March 3) ban hnh nm 1917 qui nh
khon thu i vi li nhun d tha ca cc cng ty c thu nhp t 5,000,000 USD
tr ln hng nm. Tuy nhin, theo iu 204, cc hip hi xy dng c min tr
khon thu ny:Cc cng ty c min thu theo qui nh ti khon 1, iu 1 ca o
lut ngy 8/9/1916 v cc hp danh c min tr khi iu khon ny, v thu qui
nh theo lut ny s khng tnh vo thu nhp ca cng ty hp danh t hot ng nng
nghip v dch v c nhn.
o lut Doanh thu chin tranh (The War Revenue Act): c quc hi thng
qua vo ngy 3/10/1917. o lut ny qui nh khon thu b sung i vi mi tp
on, cng ty c phn, doanh nghip, hip hi hay cng ty bo him phi chu thu
theo iu 10, o lut ngy 8/4/1916. Bi v hip hi xy dng c min thu theo
o lut 1916 nn n cng c min khon thu qui nh trong o lut Doanh thu
chin tranh.
o lut D b kim sot cc t chc nhn tin gi v ni lng qun l tin t
(The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act): c quc
hi thng qua nm 1980 v c tng thng Jimmy Carter k vo 31/3/1980. Cho php
FED qun l cc hip hi tit kim cho vay trong vic cung cp cc ti khon tit kim
c th pht sc.
o lut v cc t chc nhn tin gi Garn-St. Germain 1982 (The Garn-St.
Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982): c quc hi thng qua ngy

35

15/10/1982, d b kim sot i vi cc S&L v cho php cc ngn hng c cung


cp cc khon cho vay th chp iu chnh li.

2.2 M hnh hot ng mt ln ca S&Ls ti M


2.2.1. Khi qut tnh hnh kinh t, chnh tr, x hi giai on 1830 - 1865
Giai on 1830 1865 l giai on c nhiu s kin quan trng , lm thay i
hon ton din mo kinh t, chnh tr v x hi ca nc M k t khi 13 bang thuc
a tuyn b c lp vi Anh nm 1783.
u tin l Cuc Cch mng Khoa hc k thut ln II (1820-1870). Nh nhng
pht minh v ci tin k thut trong lnh vc nng nghip, c bit l s ra i ca my
tch bng, hng lot cc n in v trang tri sn xut mc ln dc di t t
Carolinas n min Ty Texas; thu ht hng triu lao ng n khai hoang cc vng
t mi ny. Bn cnh , vic m rng ng x, xy dng thm cc hi cng v
knh o, tng cng vn ti ng sng v quan trng nht l xy dng cc tuyn
ng st trong nhng nm 1950s n 1970s, bin nc M thnh mt nc cng
nghip thnh th. Cc tuyn ng st ni lin cc khu vc ho lnh, gim chi ph vn
chuyn nguyn vt liu v hnh khch, thc y nhng ngnh cng nghip mi nh
sn xut thp, vin thng, xy dng, pht trin, to nn tng c s k thut vng
chc cho nhng pht trin giai on sau. th ha cng din ra mnh m. Tnh n
nm 1860, 16% dn s M sng ti cc thnh ph trn 2500 dn12 . Tuy nhin, dn c
vn tp trung ch yu cc khu vc c nn kinh t pht trin. Cc cng nhn sn xut
tp trung ch yu ti cc thnh ph khu vc ng Bc, ni c cc nh my xay st
v hm m; trong khi nhng ngi nng dn li ko n khu vc min Ty ni tp
trung cc n in sn xut bng v nng sn ln.
12

Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Lch s kinh t M (Economic history of the United States), website
wikipedia.org truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 18/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_United_States

36

Biu 1: Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi M giai on 1700 - 1840

(Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc thng k M v Cc d tr Lin bang M)

S kin ni bt th hai trong giai on ny chnh l Cuc Ni chin gia min


Bc v min Nam nc M (1861 1865). Cc bang min Bc vn y mnh xy dng
mt nn kinh t cng nghip, vi nhng thnh ph ln, nh my hin i, cc ngn
hng quc gia, nng nghip c c gii ha mnh m. Trong khi, cc bang min Nam
vn duy tr ch sn xut lc hu, da ch yu vo sc lao ng ca n l; v p t
cc hng ro thu quan bo h cho cc ngnh cng nghip a phng. Chin thng
ca cc bang min Bc i vi min Nam khng ch chnh thc chm dt ch chim
hu n l ti min Nam, m cn m ra c hi thng nht v ch kinh t, chnh tr
cho ton b nc M.

37

2.2.2. S hnh thnh m hnh hot ng u tin ca S&Ls ti M - M hnh mt


ln
Cc iu kin kinh t trong thi k ny rt thun li cho s hnh thnh cc S&Ls
u tin ti M.
Sn xut nng nghip v cng nghip u c m rng v thc y pht trin
mnh m, thu ht mt lng ln cng nhn v nng dn t cc vng trn t M v c
t chu u di c sang. Chuyn n khai khn mt vng t mi, vi cng vic v thu
nhp ngy cng n nh v c xu hng tng cao, nhng ngi cng nhn v nng dn
ny bt u c nhu cu xy dng nh nh c lu di v n nh cuc sng. Chnh
t y m hip hi S&Ls u tin c ra i vo nm 1831 ti Philadelphia.
H thng ng st c m rng, ni lin nhiu khu vc trc y l nhng vng
ho lnh cng gp phn y nhanh tc th ha. Cc th ln bt u xut hin
ti khu vc ng Bc v min Trung pha Ty, l ni c nn sn xut cng nghip v
nng nghip sm ut. iu ny gii thch ti sao trong vng 40 nm u tin trong lch
s pht trin ca mnh, cc S&L ch tp trung pht trin ti hai khu vc ny.
Thi k ny, m hnh S&Ls c s dng ph bin l m hnh hot ng mt ln
(terminating plan) - m hnh u tin ca nh ch ti chnh ny. Tuy c ch hot ng
n gin, nhng m hnh hot ng mt ln li rt ph hp vi c im kinh t dn c
ti cc th ca M lc by gi.
Th nht, cc thnh vin ca S&Ls vo thi gian ny ch yu l cng nhn v
nng dn lm vic trong cc nh my, n in mi c dng nn. H ch c
nguyn vng tch ly xy nh, ch cha ngh n vic gi tin kim li.
Th hai, do trnh hiu bit hn ch ca cc thnh vin, cc S&Ls khng th
p dng mt m hnh qu phc tp, v s gy kh khn trong qu trnh vn hnh
v qun tr hip hi.

38

Th ba, cc thnh vin ca S&Ls lc ny mi ch gii hn trong nhng cng


ng nh thuc cng mt nh my hay n in. Ngi ta c th d tnh trc
c s thnh vin tim nng s tham gia vo hip hi, v vy khng cn chy
nhiu m hnh song song.
Mc d c nhiu iu kin kinh t, x hi thun li, nhng trong 40 nm u, cc
S&Ls vn hu nh khng pht trin mnh m lm. tng trng ca cc hip hi ny
bt u chng li khi cuc Ni chin n ra vo nm 1861, v ko di n ht nm
1865. Cc chnh sch tng thu ti tr cho chin tranh khin cc ngnh sn xut bt
u tng trng chm li. Hn na, vic tp trung cc ngun lc cho chin tranh, cng
vi nhng hu qu thng tt , cht choc khin nhu cu xy dng nh gim ng k.
(c tnh khong 3% dn s nc M cht hoc b thng trong thi gian ni chin).
Tuy nhin, kt qu ca cuc ni chin ny phn no em li mt thi k pht trin tch
cc hn cho cc S&Ls, s c gii thch r hn khi trnh by v giai on sau.
2.3 M hnh ni tip
2.3.1 Khi qut tnh hnh kinh t, x hi giai on 1965 1900 13
Giai on 1965 1900 c coi l thi k hong kim ca nc M, trn nhiu
phng din kinh t, khoa hc k thut, x hi, gio dc, ngh thut.

13

Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Thi k hong kim (Gilded Age), website wikipedia.org truy cp lc 02h00
ngy 18/4/2012, ng dn: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age

39

Nhng pht minh v ci tin mi trong lnh vc cng nghip, c bit l cng
nghip nng to cho s pht trin thn k ca nn kinh t M. Thi k ny nh
du s hon thin v pht trin nh cao ca mt nn kinh t cng nghip hin i.
Trong nhng nm 1870s n 1880s, kinh t M pht trin vi tc nhanh nht trong
lch s. V d t nm 1865 n 1898, sn lng la m tng 256%, sn lng ng tng
222%, chiu di ng st tng 567%. Hng lot cc tp on v t chc kinh t ra
i, cng vi nhng ci tin r rt trong m hnh qun l.
Biu 2: GNP thc t bnh qun u ngi giai on 1869 1918
(Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc thng k M v Cc d tr Lin bang M)

Cng nh c s di do v kh nng ti chnh, cc cng trnh vn ha, x hi


nh : trng i hc, bnh vin, bo tng, trng hc, nh ht opera, th vin, cc hi
t thinbt u c u t xy dng ngy cng nhiu. Cc hot ng thng tin

40

truyn thng cng c tng cng (mt phn cng c th l do mt s bt n chnh tr


nht nh). Chnh nh s u t ny, m i sng vn ha tinh thn, v nhn thc ca
ngi dn c nng cao r rt, ng thi lm xut hin nhng tng lp mi trong x
hi.
Cc thnh phn x hi cng c phn ha r rt v tr nn a dng hn. Ngoi
cc thnh phn ch yu l cng nhn, nng dn, dn nhp c (trong thi k ny tng
thm khong 10 triu ngi,ch yu t chu u v Trung Quc) nh trong giai on
trc, s pht trin v kinh t to ra nhng tng lp mi trong x hi. Khng k n
nhng nh ti phit mi xut hin nh John D. Rockefeller, Andrew W. Mellon,
Andrew Carnegie, Henry Flagler, Henry H. Rogers, J. P. Morgan, Cornelius
Vanderbilt, trong x hi lc ny xut hin thm tng lp trung lu (bao gm nhng
ngi kinh doanh nh, cc nh qun l cp thp, nhn vin trong cc t chc kinh t,
i ng phng vin, vn ngh s) v th lnh ngh (nhng ngi vn l cng nhn,
nhng c nhiu kinh nghim v tay ngh cao hn nn c thu nhp cao hn).
2.3.2.M hnh hot ng ni tip ca S&Ls
Tc ng ca tng trng kinh t n vic pht trin S&Ls c phn tch c
th trong giai on trc. Trong giai on tip theo ny, vi s bng n ca tng
trng kinh t v sn xut, khng kh gii thch ti sao cc S&Ls li pht trin
mnh m hn hn trong giai on 1865 1900 ny.
Tuy nhin cn mt s l do khc khin cho cc S&Ls c khuyn khch pht trin
hn trong thi k ny.
Th nht, cc thnh th cng nghip vn pht trin trong giai on trc
nay li cng pht trin mnh m hn, tip tc thu ht thm hng ngn lao ng
mi. Dn s ra tng chng mt trong khi din tch t c hn, khin nhng

41

ngi lao ng n sau phi sinh sng trong iu kin cht hp. V th, h li
cng ny sinh nhu cu mua nh ci thin i sng hn.
Th hai, cng gii quyt vn va nu, hng lot cc d n xy dng nh
c a ra, km theo l nhu cu v vn u t ban u. Cc ch u t
v vy phi tn dng mi ngun vn c th, v sn sng i bng mt mc li
sut hp dn. y chnh l iu kin cc S&L pht huy c tnh nng tch
ly cc khon vn ca mnh.
Tng trng kinh t mi ch gii thch c s pht trin v s lng v quy m
ca S&Ls. Mun gii thch c ti sao cc S&Ls trong giai on ny li chuyn sang
m hnh ni tip th phi xt n s a dng trong thnh phn x hi.
Th nht, cc thnh phn x hi trong giai on ny khng cn ch n thun l
cng nhn v nng dn nh trong giai on 1830 1865. Trong cng mt thnh
ph, mt cng ng, hoc ngay c mt cng ty, c nhng tng lp xut thn,
nhu cu v thu nhp khc nhau. V vy, khng th xp tt c vo cng mt m
hnh hot ng mt ln; m phi phn loi v xp h vo cc m hnh hot ng
mt ln khc nhau.
Th hai, thu nhp c ci thin ng k, nhiu ngi nht l tng lp trung
lu khng ch c nhu cu mua nh (trn thc t c th h c nh ri) m cn
c nhu cu gi tin sinh li. Sau khi mt m hnh hot ng mt ln kt thc,
h s mun tip tc gi tin vo nhng m hnh tip sau ch hng li, m
khng phi ti tr mua nh na.
Th ba, nh s u t pht trin cc trng hc, th vin, bo tng v h thng
thng tin lin lc, nhn thc v hiu bit ca ngi dn thi k ny c
nng cao. V th, h c kh nng qun l, vn hnh cc m hnh hip hi
phc tp hn.

42

2.4 M hnh hot ng vnh vin ca S&Ls


2.4.1. Khi qut tnh hnh kinh t x hi giai on 1900-1990
Th k 20 l th k bin ng nht trong lch s nc M k t khi chnh thc
tuyn b c lp vo nm 1776. l thi k ca cc cuc cch mng khoa hc k
thut thay i hon ton cch thc con ngi lm vic v sn xut, ca nn kinh t lin
tc ph v nhng k lc v ca s bnh trng th lc trn phm vi ton cu ca quc
gia ny.

Nm 1913, Henry Ford p dng dy chuyn lin tc trong sn xut xe t.


in kh ha c p dng rng ri trong cc ngnh cng nghip. Tnh n thi im
1930, in cung cp 80% nng lng cho cc ngnh cng nghip M gip ct gim chi
ph nng lng. Tc pht trin nhanh chng ca ngnh cng nghip t ko theo
s pht trin ca cc nhm ngnh khc nh du m, sn xut knh, xy dng ng x
v du lch. Cc thnh ph tr nn thnh vng hn bao gi ht, i km vi n l bng
n trong xy dng cc vn phng, nh my v nh . in thoi c s dng rng ri
to iu kin cho trao i mua bn din ra thun li. Hng triu ngi di c n cc
thnh ph v trung tm th ln .

D vy, vo thng 10/1929, th trng chng khon c nhng du hiu bt n.


Th trng chng khon vn l ch bo ca ton b nn kinh t, nhng du hiu bt n
ny bo trc cuc i Suy Thoi trong lch s kinh t M. Cuc khng hong tha
khin t l tht nghip chm nh 25% vo nm 1932. Tnh hnh cn tr nn ti t
hn nhm ngnh cng nghip nng, ha cht v xut khu cc mt hng nng nghip
(bng, ng cc, thuc l) v khai m. cu vn nn kinh t, theo o lut Hoover
ban hnh nm 1932, chi tiu chnh ph t 8% ln n 10% GNP. ti tr cho khon
chi tiu cng ny, Tng Thng M Roosevelt phi s dng bin php vay n khin
n cng tng t 33.6% of GNP nm 1932 ln ti 40.9% vo nm 1936.

43

Khon chi tiu cng ny pht huy tc dng, nc M bt u u phc hi


tr li vo nm 1934, v hon ton bc ra khi suy thoi vo nm 1936. GNP nm
1936 cao hn 34% so vi nm 1932. Nn kinh t tng trng 8% t nm 1932 n
1940. T l tht nghip st gim t 25.2% nm 1932 xung cn 13.9% nm 1940.

Trong sut thi k th chin, cc ngnh cng nghip M thay v sn xut hng
tiu dng chuyn sang u tin sn xut cho mc ch quc phng, cc nh sn xut t
chuyn sang sn xut xe tng, my bay chin u, cng nghip v kh pht trin mnh
m khin nc M c coi nh kho v kh ca th gii. Vi mc tng cu
tng ln mnh m, cc n lc kim sot gi c, kim sot nguyn vt liu, tr cp
lng, hn ch nh xy mi c tin hnh nhm gim p lc tng gi ln nn
kinh t. Theo thng k, GDP tng tng ti 56% trong 5 nm chin tranh 1940 1945.

Sau th chin II cho n u nhng nm 70 l thi k huy hong ca ch ngha


t bn M. Khng ch lm giu t bn v kh trong chin tranh, M cn tr thnh ch
thnh ch n ln nht ca cc quc gia tham chin. Vi nhng khon n khng l
nhm ti thit nn kinh t ca cc quc gia chu u, M ht v lng vng khng
l tr thnh nc c d tr vng ln nht th gii. Tip ni tng trng ng
kinh ngc thi chin tranh, nn kinh t tng trng vng chc, tt c cc tng lp trong
x hi u c ci thin mc sng ng k.

T 1947 1952 ghi nhn mc tng dn s nhanh chng trong lch s nc M


(cn c gi l giai on Baby Boom). Gii phn tch cho rng nguyn nhn ca s
gia tng nhanh chng ny l bi cuc i khng hong v giai on chin tranh
khin nhiu ngi gc li nh xy dng gia nh v sinh con. Tuy nhin, kinh t tng

44

trng mang li i sng thnh vng hn khin h c nim tin vo mt tng lai
n nh cho th h sau.

Giai on tng trng mnh m hu th chin kt thc bng hng lot cc s


kin u thp k 70:

S sp ca h thng Bretton Woods vo nm 1971

Xu hng nhp khu cc mt hng sn xut nh t v in t ngy cng tr


nn r nt

Khng hong du m 1973

Th trng chng khon i xung trong giai on 19731974

T cui thp k 60, c nhng kin cho rng tng trng kinh t ang c du
hiu chm li. v iu ny tr thnh s tht vo u nhng nm 70. Nn kinh t M
tng trng nhanh chng nh vo vic nhp khu du t t chc xut khu du OPEC.
Vic t chc ny t ngt tng gi du vo nm 1973 v lnh cm nhp khu du t
Iran mt trong nhng quc gia xut khu du ln nht cho th trng M by givo nm 1979 gy ra nhng c shock cung cho nn kinh t y nn kinh t ln nht
th gii vo tnh cnh va suy thoi va lm pht. Cng lc, cuc chin tranh Vit
Nam khin chnh ph M thm ht ngn sch trong nhiu nm lin, do , khng
th tip tc duy tr h thng Bretton Wood, xa b vic gn ng USD vi vng y
ng tin ny vo tnh trng mt gi. Nng xut lao ng gim, lm pht leo thang
t nh 20% vo thng 1/1981.

Nhm kch thch cc thnh t kinh t cnh tranh hiu qu hn nhm vt qua giai
on kh khn, Quc Hi M quyt nh d b kim sot vi mt s lnh vc. Bn
cnh vic ni lng cho cc nhm ngnh vn ti nhm hn ch chi ph sn xut v gp

45

phn tng nng sut lao ng, Quc Hi cn c bit to thun li cho S&Ls v cc
ngn hng vi o lut D b kim sot cc t chc nhn gi v ni lng kim sot
tin t ra i nm 1980 v lut Gam St. Germain nm 1982.

Bt chp chnh sch ti kha nhm kch cu kinh t ca tng thng Jimmy
Carter vo nm 1977, lm pht vn tip tc leo thang v ln n mc hai con s sau
cuc khng hong nng lng 1979. Nm 1981, tng thng mi c c Ronald Reagan
la chn s dng chnh sch ti kha kt hp vi kim sot cht ch chnh sch tin
t nhm vc dy nn kinh t - ct gim thu xung cn 25%. Bin php ny th hin
r hiu qu khi lm pht gim t 13.5% (1980) xung cn 3% (1983). GDP thc
tng tr li trong giai on 1980 1982, t l tht nghip d vn duy tr tng v t
nh im 10.8% (1982) nhng tt gim xung cn 6% vo nm 1989 v cn cn
thng mi ca M thng d tr li.

2.4.2.M hnh hot ng vnh vin ca S&Ls


Nh tt c cc nh ch ti chnh khc trong mt nn kinh t thay i nhanh
chng, lch s ca S&Ls trong giai on ny cng lin tc ghi nhn nhng thng trm
bin i.
Kinh t pht trin ng ngha vi thu nhp trung bnh gia tng nhanh chng,
l khi gic m M vi nhng ngi nh to p v cuc sng sung tc tr nn r rt
hn vi rt nhiu ngi. Bn cnh , cng xut hin nhng tng lp vi thu nhp cao
vi khon tin nhn ri mun a dng ha danh mc u t ca mnh nhm hng li
sut. p ng nhu cu a dng ca cc thnh phn kinh t, S&Ls cng m rng
phm vi hot ng ca mnh cng nh nhng sn phm m n cung cp.

46

u th k 20, xu th chuyn sang hnh thc hot ng v li nhun c hnh


thnh trong S&Ls khi cc ngn hng v cc nh t bn quyt nh m cc chi nhnh v
bn cc c phn cho nhng thnh vin tim nng. Nhng thnh vin s thanh ton cc
khon c phn ca mnh ti chi nhnh a phng, v lng tin ny c chuyn v
tr s chnh ni chng c tng hp vi nhng khon tin t cc thnh vin khc to
thnh cc khon vay. im khc bit c bn ca hnh thc mi ny so vi hnh thc
truyn thng l chng cam kt tr mc li sut ln ti gp 4 ln so bt c t chc ti
chnh no khc. S lng S&Ls v lng ti sn nm gi trong giai on ny tng vt:
Bng 2: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1888, 1900 v 1914
Nm

S lng S&Ls

Ti sn (000,000)

1888

3500

$300

1900

5356

$571

1914

6616

$1357

Ngun: Carroll D. Wright, Ninth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor: Building and
Loan Associations (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1894), 214; Josephine Hedges Ewalt, A
Business Reborn: The Savings and Loan Story, 1930-1960 (Chicago: American Savings and
Loan Institute Publishing Co., 1962), 391. (All monetary figures in this study are in current
USD.)

Nhng ngi ng u S&Ls tin ti vic thng nht ha v hin i ha


khng ch hot ng m c hnh nh ca cc t chc ny. Cc chun mc chung v bt
ton, cch thc nh gi, v quy trnh cho vay ra i.
Tnh n thi im nm 1929, S&Ls cung cp 22% s khon cho vay mua nh
ti M. Cng trong giai on , mt hip hi trung bnh nm gi mt lng ti sn
vo khong $704,000, v hng trm S&L c ti sn trn 10 triu USD. Nhiu thnh
vin ca qu l tng lp trn hoc trung lu- nhng ngi tham gia qu u t mt
cch hiu qu v kim li dn n s tng trng trn quy m ln di y:

47

Bng 3: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1914, 1924 v 1930


Nm

S lng S&Ls

Ti sn (000,000)

1914

6,616

$1,357

1924

11,844

$4,766

1930

11,777

$8,829

Ngun: Ewalt, A Business Reborn, 391, The Depression and Federal Regulation
Trong nhng nm 20, thnh cng ca S&L b kim hm li bi cuc i
khng hong. S&Ls, nh cc ngn hng, chu tn tht bi cc cho vay thua l, nhng
trong tng quan vi nhng nh ch ti chnh khc, S&Ls c xu hng sinh tn mnh
m hn hn. Bi cc ngn hng nm gi cc ti khon tin gi nn chu tc ng bi
ng thi rt tin, v h qu l t nm 1931 n 1932, gn 20% cc ngn hng ph sn
trong khi ch xp x 2% cc qu tch ly i mt vi tnh trng tng t. D s lng
S&Ls c st gim vo cui thp nin 30, song hot ng cng nhanh chng phc hi:
Bng 4: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1930, 1937 v 1945
Nm

S lng S&Ls

Ti sn(000,000)

1930

11,777

$8,829

1937

9,255

$5,682

1945

6,149

$8,747

Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1955 (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1955), 39.
Mc d s lng S&Ls ph sn t hn cc ngn hng, chng cng i mt vi
nhng thua l ln v gp vn v dng tin. H qu l, nhiu S&L phi xin tr
gip t chnh quyn lin bang. Nm 1932, Lin hip cc S&Ls thuyt phc quc hi
cho ra i mt ngn hng cho vay lin bang nhm tr gip h trong tnh cnh phi i
mt vi thiu ht vn. n 1934, h thng qun l lin bang v qu bo him tin gi
lin bang ra i.

48

Hai thp k sau th chin th hai l giai on thnh cng nht trong lch s cc
S&Ls. Quay tr v t chin trng, nhiu ngi tng mt thi phc v trong th chin
khao kht c li cuc sng trc y ca mnh dn ti s ra tng nhanh chng trong
s lng cc h gia nh, v s bng n dn s sau dn ti nhau cu ln v xy
nh (ch yu l vng ngoi ). S&Ls ti tr phn ln cho s bng n nhu cu ny
trong sut giai on thp k 40 n u nhng nm 60. S&Ls thm ch cn m rng
phm vi hot ng ca mnh sang cho vay tiu dng nhm gia tng thu nhp v nng
cao gi tr ti sn.
Cho n nm 1965, S&Ls kim sot 26% tng lng tit kim v cung cp
46% cc khon cho vay mua nh (tng trng r rt t mc 7% tng lng tit kim v
23% cc khon cho vay nm 1945):
Bng 5: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1945, 1952, 1959 v 1965
Nm

S lng S&Ls

Ti sn (000,000)

1945

6,149

$8,747

1952

6,004

$22,585

1959

6,223

$63,401

1965

6,071

$129,442

Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1966, (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1966)92-4.
Tuy nhin, s m rng ny li khng ng u. Hn 1/3 S&Ls c lng ti sn
t hn 5 triu USD, trong khi 100 S&Ls ln nht c ti sn ln ti 340 triu USD mi
hip hi v 3 S&L chm mc 5 t USD ti sn. S mt cn bng ny l do s m rng
ca mt s bang nht inh nh bang Caliornia, ngoi ra cn bi nhiu S&L la chn
gi vn bng hnh thc pht hnh c phiu i chng v tr thnh t chc i chng.
Xu hng gia tng li sut tr cho cc khon tit kim nhm thu ht cc khon tin gi
tr nn r rt n mc to nn mt giai on cnh tranh bng li sut gia cc

49

S&Ls, thm ch l c vi cc ngn hng thng mi. Cuc cnh tranh ny tr nn


khc nghit n mc vo nm 1966 Quc hi tin hnh mt ng thi bt thng l
thit lp trn li sut cho c ngn hng thng mi v S&Ls.
13 nm sau khi o lut v kim sot li sut c p dng, S&Ls phi i
mt vi nhng thch thc trong vic tm ra phng n nhm tip tc m rng hot
ng trong mt nn kinh t c tc tng trng thp nhng mc li sut v lm pht
u cao. Tnh hnh ti chnh ca S&Ls b nh hng nghim trng. Theo cc quy nh
kim sot mc li sut m S&Ls c th tr cho cc khon tit kim l c nh, khi li
sut tng, nhng ngi gi tin tin hnh rt tin em gi cc nh ch khc nhm
hng chnh lch li sut. ng thi, li sut cao v kinh t tng trng chm khin
mi ngi kh c th p ng cc tiu chun v vay th chp, m iu ny s trc tip
nh hng n ngun thu nhp ca cc hip hi.
Phn ng trc nhng phc tp v iu kin kinh t v m, S&Ls a ra mt
s gii pht t ph, nhng cng c cho vay th chp thay th v ti khon thanh ton
bng sc c tr li, nhm hn ch s suy gim dng tin v gia tng vic cho vay sinh
li. Nhng ng thi ny khin cho cc hip hi tip tc c th ghi nhn mc tng
trng v ti sn v kh nng sinh li trong sut nhng nm 70 du s lng cc hip
hi c suy gim
Bng 6: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls nm 1965, 1970, 1974 v 1979
Nm

S lng S&Ls

Ti sn (000,000)

1965

6,071

$129,442

1970

5,669

$176,183

1974

5,023

$295,545

1979

4,709

$579,307

50

Ngun: Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1980, (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan
League, 1980)48-51.
R rng, S&Ls b tc ng bi nhng hn ch mang tnh chnh sch t chnh
quyn lin bang. iu ny c bit ng vi nhng S&L c quy m ln pha Ty nc
M mong mi s dng u th ca li sut nhm m bo tng trng ca mnh. ng
thi, nhng thay i ln trn th trng ti chnh, bao gm s st nhp ca cc i th
cnh tranh v s ra i ca cc cng ngh mi, thc y nhu cu xem xt li cc
quy nh lin bang qun l cc hip hi. Bt chp nhng n lc vn ng ci thin cc
vn bn lut vo thp nin 70, khng nhiu thay i c a ra.
Vo nm 1979 tnh hnh ti chnh ca S&Ls li mt ln na chu th thch bi
mc li sut cao, lm pht gia tng, v c bit l vic gi du m tng gp i. Nhn
thc c tc ng tiu cc ca nhng thay i t bin ny n s thnh bi ca hng
trm S&Ls, Quc hi cui cng i n quyt nh d b kim sot vi hot ng
ca cc hip hi ny. Vic Quc hi thng qua cc o lut (o lut D b kim sot
cc nh ch nhn tin gi v ni lng qun l tin t 1980 v Lut Garn-St. Germain
1982) khng ch cho php cc S&L cung cp cc sn phm tit kim a dng hn m
cn m rng r rt kh nng cho vay ca cc hip hi). Nhng thay i ny nhm cho
php S&L thot khi nhng vn kh khn, ng thi cng ln u tin th hin r
quan im ca chnh ph trong vic h tr cc S&L gia tng li nhun t gin tip
thc y s pht trin ca th trng nh v s hu nh ti M. Ngoi ra, cc S&L
cn c ni lng cc yu cu v s dng cc chnh sch k ton trong bo co tnh
hnh ti chnh, ng thi xa b nhng hn ch v ch s hu ca nh ch ny. Tuy
nhin, chnh nhng chnh sch ny sau li b coi l mt trong s nhng nguyn nhn
dn n s sp ca cc S&L:

51

Bng 7: S liu v s lng v ti sn ca cc S&Ls b ph sn so vi s liu chung


ca ngnh trong nhng nm 80 ca th k XX
Nm

S lng S&L

Ti sn (000,000)

Nm

ph sn

Tng s

Tng ti sn

S&L

ngnh (000,000)

1980-2

118

$43,101

1980

3,993

$603,777

1983-5

137

$39,136

1983

3,146

$813,770

1986-7

118

$32,248

3,274

$1,109,789

1988

205

$100,705

1988

2,969

$1,368,843

1989

327

$135,245

1989

2,616

$1,186,906

1985

Ngun: Statistics on failures: Norman Strunk and Fred Case, Where Deregulation
Went Wrong (Chicago: United States League of Savings Institutions, 1988), 10;
Lawrence White, The S&L Debacle: Public Policy Lessons for Bank and Thrift
Regulation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 150; Managing the Crisis: The
FDIC and RTC Experience, 19801994 (Washington, D.C.: Resolution Trust
Corporation, 1998), 795, 798; Historical Statistics on Banking, Bank and Thrift
Failures, FDIC web page http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob accessed 31 August 2000; Total
industry statistics: 1999 Fact Book: A Statistical Profile on the United States Thrift
Industry. (Washington, D.C.: Office of Thrift Supervision, June 2000), 1, 4.
S lng cc hip hi ph sn u thp k 80 l ln nht k t cuc i Suy
Thoi m nguyn nhn ch yu l bi nhng khon thua l ln pht sinh t vic li
sut t ngt tng cao. K c sau khi mc li sut n nh v nn kinh t phc hi
tr li vo gia nhng nm 1980, s lng cc hip hi bt buc phi ng ca vn
tip tc gia tng. Theo gii phn tch nhng v ph sn trong giai on sau ny l bi
nhng sai st v gian ln ti cc hip hi. V ph sn u tin c cho l do gian ln
xy ra ti Empire Savings of Mesquite vo thng 3 nm 1984 gy ra thit hi gn

52

300 triu USD. Sau l Lincoln Savings and Loan ng u bi Charles Keating vi
thit hi ln n hn 2 t USD. Theo thng k chnh thc ca chnh ph M, n cui
thp k 80, nhng sai st v gian ln cc S&L ln n hn 75 t USD. D phn
ln cc S&Ls c T chc bo him tit kim v cho vay lin bang (FSLIC) bo
him nhng thit hi vi nn kinh t vn l rt ln.
Nm 1989, cui cng chnh quyn lin bang cng a ra gii php i vi cuc
khng hong S&L. Thng 8, Quc hi thng qua lut ci cch cc nh ch ti chnh
(FIRREA) nhm mt ln na ti lp cc bin php qun l. FIRREA xa b Ban cho
vay mua nh Lin Bang v thay i cc quy nh qun l S&L thnh S gim st cc
hip hi tit kim v cho vay. ng thi cng xa b FSLIC v chuyn chc nng bo
him tin gi cho FDIC. Theo nhng quy nh mi, S&Ls phi p ng nhng chun
mc nht nh v phi vt qua bi kim tra cht lng trong bt buc ti thiu
70% ti sn ca cc S&L phi lin quan n bt ng sn.
Cho n u thp k 90, khi cuc khng hong S&Ls qua i, thit hi t nhng
v sp ca nh ch ny c coi l ln nht trong lch s Hoa K. Trong giai on
t 1980 ti 1993, 1,307 S&Ls vi ti sn ln ti 603 t USD ph sn, lm thit hi
ca ngi ng thu gn 500 t USD. Cng cn lu rng S&L khng phi l nh
ch duy nht chu thit hi trong giai on 1980s, thp k ny cng chng kin s sp
ca 1,530 ngn hng thng mi qun l hn 230 t USD ti sn.
Nguyn nhn khin nhiu hip hi tht bi n vy trong giai on 1980 nm
ngay trong vic nh ch ny c d b kim sot. S&Ls vn l t chc ti chnh
chuyn nhn cc khon tin gi di hn cho vay th chp di hn. Khi cc hip hi
bt u mt vn vo cc ti khon tin gi hng mc li sut cao, vic d b kim
sot li tp trung vo vic ni lng cc hn ch vi ngi gi tin nh ch ny c
th a ra mc li sut cao hn na. Tuy nhin, cc hip hi vn b hn ch trong vic
53

a ra nhng khon th chp a dng hn, iu ny khin n kh c th to ra


doanh thu nhm b p chi ph.
Ngoi vic cc bin php kim sot c ni lng, s thiu cn trng trong
qun l to iu kin cho mt s c nhn trc li dn n c tnh vi phm v gian
ln cc S&L. Mt khc, v phn ln cc hip hi c c quan tin gi lin bang bo
him, nn khi i mt vi vn n xu, h sn sng tin hnh cc khon u t c
tnh ri ro cao nhm mc ch sinh li ln v trong tnh hung xu nht sn sng cho
hip hi ph sn. Theo h, nhng khon u t ri ro nu thnh s mang li nhng
khon tin ln, trong khi nu cc khon u t li tr thnh n xu th bo him s
ng ra chu tn tht cho h.
Mt trong s nhng cn nguyn chnh dn n s mt kh nng tr n ny chnh
l vic nhiu nh qun l cc hip hi thiu kinh nghim cng nh kin thc cn thit
nh gi ri ro ca cc ti sn trong bi cnh cc quy nh kim sot c d b.
Cc S&L cung cp c nhng khon vay khng an ton cng khng thc s lin
quan n th chp mua nh. Tuy nhin, nhng hnh thc ti tr khc nhau li c nhng
ri ro ring v cn c nhng k nng ring bit v chuyn mn xc nh v hn ch
chng. Cc nhn t ny dn n n xu v cui cng l tht bi xy n vi S&Ls.
Du cuc khng hong thp nin 80 lm xu i nghim trng hnh nh ca
cc hip hi tit kim v cho vay, nh ch ny vn tn ti, v hin nay, di nhng
kim sot ph hp, li tip tc tng trng. u th k 21, 1103 hip hi tit kim v
cho vay M qun l mt lng ti sn hn 863 t USD, v gi vng v tr nh ch
ln th hai v nhn cc khon tit kim.
Gi y nhng ngi tham gia S&L c th khng v mc ch tit kim mua
hoc xy cho mnh mt ngi nh na, h c th n thun tit kim nhm mc ch
54

sinh li, a dng ha danh mc u t hoc m bo rng tin ca mnh c an


ton trong tm qun l ca mt t chc uy tn. S tin v thi gian ng gp linh hot
ty theo nhu cu ca mi thnh vin, cc thnh vin cng c th vay tin cho cc mc
ch khc mua nh hoc tin tit kim ca mnh sinh li v nhn c tc nh k.
S&Ls ph b nhng gii hn ca mnh ph hp vi li ch ca rt nhiu nhm
khc nhau trong nn kinh t. C th thy rng, m hnh vnh vin ny ko di trong
sut th k 20 y bin ng ca kinh t M.
2.5 nh gi chung v hot ng ca cc m hnh S&Ls ti M
2.5.1 nh gi m hnh mt ln
y l m hnh s khai nht xut hin u tin M. Tuy sau , m hnh ny
b thay th bi nhng nhng m hnh phc tp hn, nhng m hnh hot ng mt
ln trn thc t l m hnh phn nh chnh xc nht mc tiu v nguyn tc ca cc
S&Ls; l tnh tng tr v tnh tch ly nhm mc ch cui cng l mi thnh vin
u s hu mt ngi nh.
M hnh hot ng mt ln c nhc im l n ch ph hp vi nhng nhm
ngi lao ng tng i nh trong mt khng gian (x hi) nh, thi gian bt u
tham gia i vi mi thnh vin b gii hn. Hn na, khon tin ng gp mi ln ca
mi thnh vin b gii hn; v vy s ngn cn nhng thnh vin c iu kin np
nhiu tin ln kt thc khon n ca mnh sm.
Tuy nhin, m hnh ny li c u im l cc thnh vin ch tham gia m hnh
ny khi h thc s c nhu cu (mua nh) v nhu cu s c gi nguyn trong sut
thi gian tn ti ca hip hi.V vy, cc thnh vin s c ng lc tham gia hip hi,
np cc khon ng gp ng thi hn.

55

Trong thi k u pht trin cc S&Ls, ngi lao ng ch c nhu cu tham gia
hip hi mua nh nn m hnh hot ng mt ln kh ph bin. Sau , khi cc
S&Ls c pht trin rng ri hn, ngi lao ng i khi khng c nhu cu vay tin
mua nh, m ch mun tch ly tin v hng mt khon li an ton. V vy,cn thit
phi c mt m hnh mi p ng nhu cu tham gia rng ri ca mi ngi
2.5.2 nh gi m hnh ni tip
M hnh ni tip khc phc c nhc im v chi ph v thi gian tham
gia ca m hnh hot ng mt ln. Nh vy, tt c nhng ngi lao ng c nhu cu
u c th tm thy mt hip hi ph hp vi iu kin thi gian v c chi ph bt u
thp tham gia, khng phi ch i qu lu trc khi mt hip hi mi ra i. i
vi nhng ngi lao ng thc s c nhu cu mua nh th m hnh ni tip s gip h
sm thc hin c gic m ca mnh. Cn i vi nhng ngi ch mun hng li
th cng tm c mt t chc n nh tch ly v tng thm thu nhp.
Tuy nhin, m hnh ni tip ny cng xut hin mt nhc im.M hnh ni
tip gm nhiu m hnh hot ng mt ln cng chy song song vi nhau.V vy, khi
nhiu m hnh c cng thi gian o hn th nhu cu tin mt chi tr cho cc thnh
vin b dn li v y ln cao. Nu ban qun tr gi mt lng tin mt ln thanh
ton th s lm gim hiu qu u t ca hip hi v tin s nm "cht" trong kt m
khng sinh li. Cn nu u t ht tin mt ra bn ngoi th hip hi s phi i mt
vi nguy c mt thanh khon do khng c tin mt chi tr cho cc thnh vin. Mt vi
hip hi la chn gii php tnh th l i vay li t cc ngn hng tr cho cc
thnh vin. Nhng gii php ny lm tng chi ph ca hip hi khi h phi i vay
vi li sut cao, lm gim tc dng ca vic tch ly.

56

2.5.3 nh gi m hnh vnh vin


C th d dng nhn ra m hnh vnh vin kh ging vi cc m hnh tit kim
v cho vay ca cc ngn hng thng mi khi n dnh cho cc thnh vin s t do
hon ton trong vic la chn v qun l thi gian v mc tham gia vo cc hip
hi S&Ls. Vo thi im ra i v pht trin, m hnh ny c cho l hon thin nht
v khc phc c cc im yu ca hai m hnh trc , nh gii hn v thi gian
tham gia, chi ph tham gia, v yu cu lu tr vn.c bit, vic tham gia v t b hip
hi c php din ra d dng hn khin nhiu ngi lao ng sn sng tr thnh
thnh vin ca cc S&Ls. iu ny cng gip cho ngun vn ca cc S&Ls tng ln
ng k khi tn ng c ngun tin tch ly t nhng ngi khng thc s c nhu
cu mua nh tr gip cho nhng thnh vin c mong mun.Thm vo , vic loi
b yu cu v mc ng gp v thi gian ng gp c nh hng k c cho l nhn
t thc y vic thc hin cc cam kt tch ly, khi cc thnh vin khng cn cm thy
vic ng gp tch ly l mt iu p buc m l mt ngha v cn c thc hin, v
h c th thc hin ngha v theo thi gian v cach thc c li nht cho mnh.
Tuy nhin, m hnh vnh vin ny cng tim n nhng nguy c to ln, m ch
mi n khi xy ra cuc khng hong ca cc S&Ls vo nhng nm 1980s ngi ta
mi nhn ra.Th nht, S&Ls khng cn hot ng v mt mc tiu duy nht l gip cc
thnh vin mua nh. Thay vo , cc thnh vin tham gia hip hi v nhng mc ch
khc nhau; mc tch cc tham gia ca mi ngi v vy m cng khc nhau. iu
ny to ra nhng mu thun trong cc hot ng ca S&Ls, v gy ra bt ha gia
cc thnh vin.Th hai, S&Ls mt i tnh cht tng tr ca mnh trong cc thnh
vin gip nhau cng mua nh. Cc S&Ls dn hot ng theo hng thng mi ha
thu li nhun, nhn tin gi ca nhng ngi tha vn v tr h mt mc li sut nht
nh. Lm nh vy, S&Ls s phi chu s cnh tranh ca cc ngn hng v cc t chc
ti chnh nhn tin gi khc, trong khi cc S&Ls n gin l khng c c cu c
c ngun vn cnh tranh. Do vy, n s phi tng cng u t vo nhng lnh
57

vc mo him thu c mc li sut ln hn. Nh vy, tnh an ton ca cc S&Ls,


vn l mt li th cnh tranh ca cc t chc ny, cng bin mt. Th ba, do cc S&Ls
theo m hnh vnh vin cho php cc thnh vin c mua s lng c phn vi tr gi
khc nhau v li sut c tnh da trn s tin tch ly c, cc thnh vin ca
S&Ls s khng cn bnh ng vi nhau. Cc thnh vin c mc ng gp cao hn s
nhn c nhiu li nhun hn v cng c quyn chi phi hn n cc hot ng u
t ca hip hi.Khi hip hi s hot ng v li ch ca thiu s cc thnh vin thay
v a s.Th t, vic cc thnh vin t do tham gia hoc t b hip hi, t do ng gp
khng theo nh k ban u c coi l im tin b vt bc ca m hnh vnh vin,
sau ny li bin thnh l hng nhng k la o thm nhp vo cc S&Ls, gy ra s
sp hng lot vo nhng nm 1980s. Thm vo , vic khng c mt thi im kt
thc c th cho mi thnh vin m ko di vnh vin cng khin m hnh vnh vin tr
nn mt n nh v mt an ton i vi cc thnh vin thc s c nhu cu mua nh.
nh gi chung
Do mc tiu sut ca vic thnh lp S&Ls Vit Nam l tr gip cho vic
mua nh ca nhng ngi lao ng trong cc doanh nghip, nhm nghin cu sut
s dng m hnh hot ng mt ln. y l m hnh ph hp nht vi mc ch v
nguyn tc ca cc S&Ls, v c mc ri ro thp nht trong ba m hnh.Hn na, do
trnh qun l ti chnh Vit Nam cn cha cao, vic s dng mt m hnh n gin
nhng hiu qu s l mt s khi u thn trng v hp l. Tuy cn mt vi hn ch,
nhng nhng im yu ny khng lm nh hng nghim trng n kt qu hot ng
ca hip hi.

58

Chng 3: Kh nng hnh thnh m hnh hot ng ca Hip hi tit kim v cho
vay (S&Ls) trong lnh vc nh ti VN
3.1 Khi qut v tnh hnh hot ng ca th trng ti chnh v th trng nh
ti Vit Nam:
3.1.1 Khi qut v hot ng ca th trng ti chnh ti VN
3.1.1.1 Hot ng ca th trng ti chnh trong nhng nm va qua
Ngy 20/7/2000, sn giao dch chng khon thnh ph HCM chnh thc c
vn hnh nh du thi im th trng chng khon VN i vo hot ng. Nm
nm sau , ngy 8/3/2005, sn giao dch chng khon HN ra i.C th ni, vi hot
ng ca hai sn giao dch trn, th trng ti chnh VN c thm knh dn vn nhanh
chng v hiu qu.Trc , cc ngn hng l trung gian ti chnh duy nht trong nn
kinh t: ni nhn gi cc khon tin nhn ri ca c nhn, h gia nh v cung cp vn
cho cc doanh nghip c nhu cu m rng sn xut kinh doanh.Tuy nhin, nh s ra
i ca th trng chng khon, cc c nhn c th la chn nhiu knh u t hn,
bao gm: gi tin vo ngn hng, gp vn vo cc cng ty c phn, mua bn chng
khon trn sn giao dch v cc doanh nghip cng c nhiu cch tip cn v thu ht
vn thng qua pht hnh cc giy t c gi.Cng vi hai sn giao dch chng khon,
nhiu loi hnh nh ch ti chnh cng xut hin nh cc cng ty chng khon, cng ty
ti chnh, qu u t
Trong nhng nm qua, qui m th trng c bc tng trng mnh m v ngy
cng khng nh vai tr l knh dn vn trung v di hn quan trng.Trong giai on t
nm 2000 n nm 2005, t l vn ha th trng ch t trn di 1% GDP. Hai nm
tip theo, qui m th trng c s tng trng mnh m ln 22.7% GDP (2006) v t

59

trn mc 43% (2007)14. i vi kinh t VN, nm 2006 2007 cng l nhng nm nn


kinh t tng trng ton din, "ng vo hng cc quc gia c tc tng trng kinh
t cao trong khu vc theo nh gi ca Ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB).GDP nm
2007 c tnh tng 8.48% so vi 2006, khi lng vn u t ton x hi thc hin
nm 2007 theo gi thc t c t 461.9 nghn t ng, bng 40.4% GDP (t k
hoch ra 40% GDP) v tng 15.8% so vi nm 200615.
Tuy nhin, sang n 2008 th li l mt nm khng vui vi kinh t VN khi
tc tng trng GDP ch t xp x 6.3%, thp nht k t nm 1999. Nguyn nhn
chnh cho s st gim ny l nh hng t khng hong ti chnh M. Su thng u
nm 2008, lm pht tng cao (ch s CPI t 14.11% thng 1 ln ti 26.8% thng 6 v
inh im l 28.32% vo thng 8), trong khi nhng thng cui nm, tnh trng li l
gim pht suy thoi (ch s CPI thng 12 gim xung cn 19.89%). i vi th trng
chng khon th 2008 cng l mt nm st gim k lc, vi ch s VN-Index v
HASTC-Index c mc gim ln lt l 65,95% v 67,51% so vi cui nm trc ,
mt mc st gim cha tng c trong lch s hn 8 nm hot ng16.
Nm 2009, kinh t VN dn dn phc hi nh nhng n lc Chnh ph thng qua
gi kch cu, c bit l h tr li sut 4%, cng nh chnh sch gim, gin thu i
vi doanh nghip. im ni bt trong vic iu hnh nn kinh t v m l chnh sch
ti kha m rng v chnh sch tin t ni lng. Nh c Nh nc h tr 4% li sut
cho vay v mt s bin php ca NHNN nh: khng ch trn li sut cho vay, cung

14

S liu tham kho t bi vit 10 nm hot ng th trng chng khon VN v nh hng chin lc giai
on 2010 -2020 ca tc gi Nguyn Sn, tp ch Kinh t v d bo, chuyn san Tng quan kinh t - x hi
VN, s 2 thng 6/2010.
15
Thng tin tham kho trn website ca y ban nhn dn tnh Lm ng, truy cp lc 17h20 ngy 10/4/2012,
ng dn: http://w3.lamdong.gov.vn/vi-VN/a/damrong/tinhhinhktxh/Pages/nam-2007-ktvn-phat-trien-toandien.aspx
16
S liu tham kho trong Bo co phn tch kinh t VN nm 2008 ca cng ty c phn chng khon Eurocapital
(HN thng 1 nm 2009), tham kho trn website ca cng ty truy cp lc 15h30 ngy 11/4/2012 ng dn:
eurocapital.vn/Modules/CMS/Upload/108/Nam_2009/ECC%20REPORT%202008%20vietnamese%20ver.pdf

60

ng thanh khon cho cc ngn hng c kh khn thanh khon, kim sot t gi, cc
khon vay n vi cc doanh nghip va v nh, gip phc hi sn xut kinh doanh
v lm cho tng trng tn dng t gn 38%.
Nm 2010, kinh t vn phi i mt vi nhng kh khn nh: lm pht cao vi
mc tng trng CPI c nm ln ti 11.75%. ng VN lin tc mt gi; c th l trong
vng 10 thng k t 11/2009 n 08/2010, sau 3 ln iu chnh, t gi USD/VND lin
ngn hng tng 11.17%. Trong nm ny, hot ng ca cc ngn hng nhn chung cng
b sit cht hn bi mt s qui nh nh: qui nh vn iu l ti thiu 3000 t ng
(141/2006/N-CP), qui nh tng t l vn an ton ti thiu t 8% ln 9%
(13/2010/TT-NHNN)c bit trong nhng thng cui nm, li sut tng mnh, cc
ngn hng u lao vo cuc chin li sut vi li sut huy ng mc 14-16%, li sut
cho vay ln ti 19-20%.Trn th trng chng khon, VN Index gim 6.26%, HNX
Index gim 36.5%17.
Nm 2011, thc hin s ch o ca Chnh ph, chnh sch tin t c NHNN
iu hnh theo hng cht ch ngay t u nm. Nh , li sut huy ng t 1 thng
tr ln u mc 14%/nm; tc tng trng tn dng t 15%. Khi li sut huy
ng vn gim, li sut cho vay i vi nn kinh t cng c xu hng gim dn, t
to hiu ng tch cc t pha nn kinh t, t cc khch hng vay vn, ng thi cng
gip cc t chc tn dng hn ch n xu do tc ng hai mt ca c ch li sut cao.
T gi hi oi lin ngn hng tng ln 10,15% (t mc 18.932 ln mc 20.803), ng
thi h bin giao dch xung cn +/-1%, iu chnh gim li sut tin gi USD ca
doanh nghip v dn c xung cn 0,5% v 2%. Bin php ny cho php cc t
chc tn dng mua c ngoi t, th trng c tnh thanh khon tt hn, p ng
nhu cu ngoi t hp l cho khch hng, ng thi c d bn v NHNN, gp phn tng
17

S liu tham kho trong Bo co phn tch ngnh: Din bin nm 2010 & Trin vng nm 2011 ca Phng
Nghin cu Phn tch, cng ty c phn chng khon Ph Wall.

61

c d tr ngoi hi quc gia.Tuy nhin, th trng chng khon vn tip tc trm


lng v i mt vi nhiu kh khn18.
3.1.1.2 u th ca cc NHTM trong vic cung cp cc khon vay mua sm nh
cho khch hng c nhn
Theo s liu cng b trn website ca NHNN VN, tnh n ngy 31/12/2011, ti
VN c 5 NHTM Nh nc, 1 ngn hng chnh sch, 35 NHTM c phn, 50 chi nhnh
ngn hng nc ngoi ti VN, 4 ngn hng lin doanh, 5 ngn hng 100% vn nc
ngoi, 51 vn phng i din ngn hng nc ngoi ti VN, 18 cng ty ti chnh, 12
cng ty cho thu ti chnh v 915 qu tn dng tnh.
Bn cnh , theo Ngh nh s 141/2006/N-CP ban hnh ngy 22 thng 11
nm 2006 ca Chnh ph, mc vn php nh ca cc t chc tn dng cho n nm
2010 c qui nh nh sau:
- i vi NHTM Nh nc: 3000 t ng.
- i vi NHTM c phn: 3000 t ng.
- i vi ngn hng lin doanh: 3000 t ng.
- i vi ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi: 3000 t ng.
- i vi Chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi: 15 triu USD.
- i vi ngn hng chnh sch: 5000 t ng.
- i vi qu tn dng nhn dn c s: 0.1 t ng.
- i vi cng ty ti chnh: 500 t ng.
- i vi cng ty cho thu ti chnh: 150 t ng.

18

Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Bc tranh th trng ti chnh 2011 k vng nm 2012 ca tc gi Trng Trit
trn website ca Vin chin lc v chnh sch ti chnh, B Ti chnh, truy cp lc 17h40 ngy 11/4/2012,
ng dn:
http://nif.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/nif/Newdetail?p_page_id=1&pers_id=42972397&item_id=54855429&p
_details=1

62

Qua cc s liu trn, c th thy trong h thng t chc tn dng VN hin nay,
cc NHTM chim t trng ln khng ch v s lng m cn c qui m.
Khng ch vy, ngn hng cn c u th v b dy lch s v kinh nghim hot
ng.Mt s ngn hng u tin ca VN l ngn hng u t v pht trin VN (BIDV)
thnh lp ngy 26/4/1957, ngn hng Ngoi thng VN (Vietcombank) thnh lp ngy
1/4/1963, ngn hng Nng nghip v pht trin nng thn VN (Agribank) thnh lp
ngy 26/3/1988.Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng cn c th mnh trong mng th trng ca
cc khch hng c nhn. C th, theo Lut cc t chc tn dng (lut s
47/2010/QH12) do Quc hi ban hnh ngy 16/6/2010, cc t chc tn dng phi ngn
hng khng c nhn tin gi ca c nhn v cung ng cc dch v thanh ton qua ti
khon ca khch hng. Nh vy, thng qua cc c im va trnh by trn, c th
thy NHTM l nh ch ti chnh c u th nht trong vic tip cn cc khch hng c
nhn ti VN. Do , khi c nhu cu tn dng, khch hng c nhn cng thng ch tm
n NHTM, ni c th cung cp cho h cc khon vay pht trin sn xut kinh doanh,
vay tiu dng hoc vay mua nh.
Cc NHTM ngy nay, c bit cc ngn hng chuyn hot ng trong lnh vc ngn
hng bn l, lun ch trng xy dng nhng chnh sch hp dn v tn dng nh . V
d nh ngn hng HSBC chp nhn khon vay ln n 70% gi tr cn nh th chp v
thi hn vay ko di ln n 25 nm; ngoi ra, khch hng cn c nhn thm cc
dch v min ph nh: m ti khon An Li, nhn th thanh ton quc t visa debit,
dch v ngn hng trc tuyn v ngn hng qua in thoi19.
Tuy vy, cc khon vay mua sm nh i khi cng mang li nhng ri ro rt
ln. iu ny c th thy r trong nn kinh t VN giai on t nm 2008 n nm
19

Thng tin tham kho trn website ca ngn hng HSBC, truy cp lc 15h15 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.hsbc.com.vn/1/2/personal/loans/home-loan

63

2010, y l thi k nn kinh t c nhiu bt n do chu nhng nh hng ca cuc


khng hong ti chnh th gii. Trn th trng bt ng sn, gi nh t lin tc st
gim mnh, giao dch din ra cm chng v th trng nhn chung m. ng trc
tnh hnh ny, NHNN ra quyt nh sit cht tn dng i vi cc NHTM.Thng t
13/2010/TT-NHNN do NHNN ban hnh ngy 20/5/2010 v c hiu lc thi hnh t
ngy 1/10/2010 qui nh tng h s ri ro t 100% ln 250% i vi cc khon vay
kinh doanh bt ng sn cng nh tng h s an ton vn ti thiu (CAR) ca cc ngn
hng ln 9%. Cc ngn hng buc phi thu hp tn dng mua nh m bo an ton
vn cho h thng ngn hng.Tip , cho n thng 11/2011, cnh ca cho vay mua
nh mi c h m rng hn sau khi NHNN ban hnh cng vn s 8844/NHNNCSTT vo ngy 14/11/2011.Theo , bo co d n cho vay i vi nhu cu vn
sa cha nh v mua nh m ngun tr n bng tin lng, tin cng ca khch
hng vay c loi tr khi kim sot t trng d n cho vay phi sn xut. Quy nh
cho php nhng ngi c nhu cu mua nh thc s khng ch c vay vn tr li m
cn c c hi c vay vi li sut thp hn do cc ngn hng c h t l trch lp
d phng ri ro v gim chi ph qun l. Sau khi c tn hiu ny, nhiu ngn hng
y mnh cho vay mua nh tr li. Chng hn nh NHTM c phn i dng
(Oceanbank) c chnh sch cho vay vi li sut 19%/nm, mc cho vay h tr ti a
n 80% gi tr cn nh v thi hn cho vay ti a 120 thng20.
3.1.2 Khi qut v hot ng ca th trng nh ti VN
Theo website ca Tng cc Thng k, ta c s liu v tng sn phm trong nc
GDP theo gi thc t v mc ng gp ca ngnh xy dng vo GDP nh sau:

20

Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Ngn hng m ca cho vay mua nh ca tc gi Phc H trn website ca
Din n kinh t VN, chuyn trang hp tc gia Vietnam Report v VietnamNet, truy cp lc 16h03 ngy
10/4/2012, ng dn: http://vef.vn/2011-11-25-ngan-hang-mo-cua-cho-vay-mua-nha

64

Bng 8: S liu v GDP v t trng ng gp ca ngnh xy dng vo GDP ca VN


nm 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010

Nm

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

839211

1143715

1485038

1658389

1980914

(t

53276

79712

95696

110255

139162

T trng ng gp ca

6.35

6.97

6.44

6.65

7.03

Tng GDP (t ng)


Ngnh

xy

dng

ng)

xy dng vo GDP (%)


(S liu ly trn website ca Tng cc thng k, truy cp lc 15h37 ngy 12/4/2012,
ng dn: http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=388&idmid=3&ItemID=11548)
Qua bng trn, ta thy t trng ca ngnh xy dng ng gp vo GDP l kh
n nh qua cc nm gn y, t trng ny dao ng trong khong t 6 7% GDP.
Nu xt t l tng trng GDP v tng trng ca ngnh xy dng, ta c:
Bng 9: S liu v tc tng trng GDP v ngnh xy dng VN giai on 2005 2010
Giai on

2005-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Tng trng GDP (%/nm)

16.74

29.84

11.67

19.45

Tng trng ngnh xy

22.32

20.05

15.21

26.22

dng (%/nm)
T bng trn, ngoi tr giai on 2007 2008, ta thy tc tng trng ca
ngnh xy dng c tng quan cht ch vi tng trng GDP. Trong phn ln giai
on, t l tng trng ngnh xy dng vt qua t l tng GDP. c bit, cui nm
2006 v sang 2007, VN ln lt tri qua 2 cn st chng khon v bt ng sn, to ra
mt lng cu o ln trn cc th trng ny.

65

Tuy nhin, bt u t nm 2008, nn kinh t chu nh hng ca khng hong


ti chnh M khin chng khon st gim mnh, bong bng nh t cng c nguy c
v. iu ny gii thch ti sao t l tng trng ca GDP v ngnh xy dng u gim
mnh trong nm 2008 2009 xung ln lt l 11.67% v 15.21%. Thi gian ny, gi
nh t trn th trng gim mnh, giao dch din ra cm chng.Tuy nhin mt s
phn khc vn c tng trng cc b nh nh chung c c sp c ci to, nh v t
nn d n.Nm 2009, th trng cng b nh hng bi mt s thay i trong chnh
sch ca Nh nc nh gi u t v nh x hi cho th trng bt ng sn c
cng b t cui qu III/2009, chnh sch lin quan n th tc cp giy ch quyn mi,
quy nh ng b i vi giy ch quyn cp trc ngy 1-8, vic m rng i tng
cho Vit kiu khi mua nh ti VN k t ngy 1-9, chnh sch thu khi chuyn nhng
bt ng sn, vic ng thu thu nhp c nhn.
Bc sang nm 2010, gi cn h chung c thnh ph HCM v HN u gim
v chu chung mt tnh cnh l nhiu ngi cho bn, t ngi cho mua. thu ht
ngi mua, cc ch u t tung ra nhiu chng trnh khuyn mi hp dn cng nh
nhiu hot ng m rng a bn cho bn sn phm. S ra i ca thng t
13/2010/TT-NHNN c hiu lc t ngy 1/10/2010 khin cho vic vay vn mua nh tr
nn kh khn hn do cc ngn hng s phi thu hp tn dng trong lnh vc ny m
bo an ton vn cho h thng ngn hng. Bn cnh , cc d n nh x hi v nh
cho ngi thu nhp thp cng c trin khai v thu c mt s kt qu bc u.
Trong thi gian ngn c khong 190 d n vi tng s vn trn 28000 t ng
c ng k vi quy m xy dng khong 170000 cn h tng ng vi khong
7000000 m2 sn, p ng cho 700000 ngi c thu nhp thp21.

21

Thng tin tham kho t bi vit Ton cnh th trng bt ng sn nm 2010 trn website dothi.net, truy cp
lc 16h53 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn: http://dothi.net/thi-truong/phan-tich-nhan-dinh/15986/toan-canh-thitruong-bat-dong-san-nam-2010.htm

66

u nm 2011, gi bt ng sn HN v thnh ph HCM c du hiu tng nh


(5 10%) cc phn khc t nn, bit th d n, nh chung c sp hon thin v bt
ng sn nhng khu vc c ph duyt qui hoch. Tuy nhin, tip , thc hin
Ngh quyt s 11/NQ-CP ngy 24/02/2011 ca Chnh ph v nhng gii php ch yu
tp trung kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m, NHNN c nhng bin php sit
cht tn dng phi sn xut, nht l cc lnh vc bt ng sn, chng khon; c th qui
nh: n 30/6/2011, t trng d n cho vay lnh vc phi sn xut so vi tng d n ti
a l 22% v n 31/12/2011, t trng ny ti a l 16%. ng thi ny khin cho
th trng bt ng sn hon ton chm dt chui ngy tng gi v bc vo vng
xoy lao dc khi tnh thanh khon gim st, cu gim, n xu tng.Tip , cho n
thng 11/2011, sau khi cng vn s 8844/NHNN-CSTT vo ngy 14/11/2011, cnh
ca cho vay mua nh mi li c h m rng hn (nh trnh by phn 3.1.1.2).
3.2 iu kin cho s hnh thnh v pht trin ca S&Ls ti VN
3.2.1 Nhng thun li khi pht trin S&Ls ti VN
3.2.1.1 i nt v thc trng dn s, nh v thu nhp ca ngi dn VN
Theo kt qu ca cuc Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm 2009, tnh n 0h ngy
1/4/2009, dn s nc ta l 85846997 ngi.So vi kt qu ca cuc Tng iu tra
nm 1999, dn s tng 9523000 ngi (trung bnh mi nm tng 952000
ngi).Trong , dn c khu vc thnh th l 25436896 ngi (chim 29.6%) v khu
vc nng thn l 60410101 ngi (chim 70.4%). Do kt qu ca qu trnh di dn v
th ha, t l tng dn s khu vc thnh th (3.4%/nm) cao hn gn 8 ln so vi
khu vc nng thn (0.4%/nm).Ngoi ra, thnh ph HN v thnh ph HCM l 2 trong
3 n v cp tnh c qui m dn s ln hn 3 triu ngi (HN: 6452000 ngi; HCM:
7163000 ngi)22. Dn s tng ko theo nhu cu v nh tng. Vi cc s liu trn, ta
22

: S liu tham kho trong n phm Tng iu tra dn s v nh VN nm 2009: Kt qu ton b ca Ban ch
o tng iu tra dn s v nh Trung ng, NXB Thng k v bi vit Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm
2009: Cng b kt qu iu tra ton b trn website ca Qu dn s Lin hip quc, truy cp vo lc 22h30 ngy
11/4/2012, ng dn: http://vietnam.unfpa.org/public/lang/vi/pid/6394

67

thy nhu cu nh , c bit nh nhng khu vc thnh th, u rt ln v c xu


hng tng qua cc nm.
Tuy vy, cng theo kt qu t cuc Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm 2009,
tng s nh cho n thi im 1/4/2009 l 20866630 cn nh; trong nh kin c
ch chim s lng l 9667917 cn (t trng 46.33%), cn li l nh bn kin c
(37.9%), nh thiu kin c (8.0%) v nh n s (7.8%). c bit, khu vc thnh th,
trong tng s 6094739 cn nh, ch c khong 41.61% l nh kin c. Din tch
bnh qun u ngi ca c nc l 16.7 m2, trong ca thnh th cao gn gp ri
ca nng thn, tng ng l 19.2 v 15.7 m2.23 Con s ny l ph hp vi nh hng
pht trin nh trong quyt nh 76/2004/Q-TTg ca Th tng Chnh ph ban hnh
nm 2004, l: din tch nh bnh qun u ngi t 15 m2 sn vo 2010 v 20 m2
sn nm 2020.
Nh vy, c th thy nhu cu xy dng v mua sm nh trong nhng nm tip
theo l rt ln, nht l khu vc thnh th. l h qu ca qu trnh tng dn s cng
nh tng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi. C th, t nm 2002 n nm 2010, thu nhp
bnh qun ca mt nhn khu tng trung bnh 18.5%/nm t 356100 ng ln 1387200
ng. thnh th, thu nhp tng bnh qun 16.6%/nm (t 2129700 ng nm 2010)
trong khi nng thn, thu nhp tng 18.5%/nm (t 1070500 ng nm 2010)24.

23

S liu tham kho trong n phm Tng iu tra dn s v nh VN nm 2009: Kt qu ton b ca Ban ch o
tng iu tra dn s v nh Trung ng, NXB Thng k v bi vit Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm 2009:
Cng b kt qu iu tra ton b trn website ca Qu dn s Lin hip quc, truy cp vo lc 22h30 ngy
11/4/2012, ng dn: http://vietnam.unfpa.org/public/lang/vi/pid/6394
24
S liu tham kho t Kho st mc sng h dn c nm 2010, phn 5: Thu nhp, trn website ca Tng cc
thng k, truy cp lc 22h55 ngy 11/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=417&idmid=4&ItemID=11138

68

3.2.1.2 Nhu cu mua nh


hiu r hn v nhu cu mua nh ca ngi dn, nhm nghin cu thc hin
kho st ti thnh ph HN. Mu kho st bao gm 100 ngi lao ng trong cc doanh
nghip v c quan trn a bn thnh ph. Mc ch iu tra l thu thp thng tin v
nhu cu mua nh (mua nh trong thi gian no, tr gi nh bao nhiu), thu nhp v
quan im ca ngi dn v cc knh u t v ti tr vn phc v mua sm nh .
Ni dung phiu iu tra v danh sch nhng ngi tham gia kho st c trnh by
trong phn ph lc.
Sau y l mt s kt qu t c t cuc kho st trn:
- Khi c hi Anh/ch c nhu cu mua nh HN? c 24 ngi tr li Khng chc
chn, 76 ngi cn li chn C. T l c nhu cu mua nh HN nm ri rc
nhiu tui khc nhau (ngi nhiu tui nht sinh nm 1952, ngi t tui nht sinh
nm 1990).S liu ny phn nh kh ng nhu cu v nh thc t hin nay, l a
phn ngi dn u mun mua nh: ngi tr mua nh , ngi c tui mua nh
dnh cho con ci.
- Thi gian d kin mua nh:
Bng 10: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thi gian d kin mua nh
La chn

S phiu

trong vng 5 nm ti

30

trong vng 5-10 nm ti

47

trong vng 10-15 nm ti

13

trn 15 nm

10

Nh vy, a phn s ngi tr li la chn thi gian mua nh l trong 10 nm ti, c


bit 47% chn mua nh trong vng 5-10 nm. Kt qu ny kh thun li cho S&Ls v
hot ng ca nh ch ti chnh ny i hi mt khong thi gian tng i di

69

tch ly vn cung cp cho tt c cc thnh vin tham gia. iu ny s c din gii


c th hn trong phn 3.3 Xy dng m hnh.
- Ngn sch d kin cho vic mua nh:
Bng 11: Kt qu iu tra kho st v ngn sch d kin mua nh
Ngn sch (t ng)

T l s phiu (%) (fi)

Tr s gia (xi)

<1

0.5

13

64

35

27

>5

Gi tr trung bnh l:

Xu hng ch yu c la chn l nh c gi tr t 1 3 t. y l mc gi nh va
phi, khng qu cao trn th trng.
3.2.1.3 Nhc im ca cc khon vay mua nh hin nay
Nh l ti sn c gi tr rt ln, thng thng nu ch da vo thu nhp t tin
lng hng thng, ngi dn phi ch rt lu mi c th s hu c mt cn nh. Vy
u s l ngun ti tr cho nhu cu mua nh? Khi c hi Ngoi tin lng hng
thng, anh/ch c th s dng nhng ngun vn no ti tr cho vic mua nh?, 100
ngi tham gia iu tra cho kt qu nh sau:
Bng 12: Kt qu iu tra kho st v cc ngun vn s dng ti tr cho vic mua
nh
La chn:

T l phiu (%)

70

vay mn t ngi thn, bn b

60

vay ngn hng

22

cc ngun thu nhp khc, nh: gp vn vo cng ty, u t th

18

trng chng khon


60% s ngi c hi chn vay mn t ngi thn, bn b. iu ny l
ph hp vi tm l chung ca ngi ng: mun n nh ch , nn khng mun
vay mn nhng t chc bn ngoi trnh ri ro. Tuy nhin, ngun vay t nhng
ngi quen bit khng phi lc no cng sn sng, d d cho ngi c nhu cu vay;
cha k, khi vay mn tin gia nhng ngi quen thn, chnh sch vay thng
khng r rng, nn thng a c hai bn vo th b ng trong vic tr n sau ny, v
d nh ngi i vay gp kh khn, khng tr tin y vo ngy hn hoc ngi
cho vay bt ng cn tin gp hn d kin.
Ngn hng l mt knh cung cp vn rt hiu qu nhng khi vay vn ngn
hng, ngi dn thng phi lm nhiu th tc hn, yu cu m bo tn dng ca
ngn hng thng cht ch hn v li sut cho vay cng cao hn so vi cc khon vay
S&Ls.
3.2.2 Nhng kh khn khi pht trin S&Ls ti VN
3.2.2.1 Yu t tm l:
Nh phn tch phn trn, ngi dn VN ni chung thng coi trng nh
nn khng mun i vay tin t cc t chc bn ngoi mua nh. H thng lo ngi
ri ro v khng thch cm gic nh sng trong ngi nh i vay i mn ch khng
thc s l nh ca mnh. Cc NHTM l nh ch ti chnh c li th rt ln trong vic
tip cn khch hng c nhn, nhng theo kt qu kho st trn: ch c 22% s ngi
c hi ng i vay vn ngn hng khi cn mua sm nh.

71

i vi S&Ls, mt nh ch ti chnh cn rt mi m VN, tm l lo ngi l iu d


hiu. Quay tr li vi cuc iu tra, ta c kt qu:
- Vi cu hi Anh/ch tng nghe ni hay bit n m hnh (S&Ls) cha?, ch c
30% tr li tng nghe ni. Do , c th thy S&Ls l m hnh cn xa l i vi
ngi VN.
- Tip , khi c hi Nu trong tng lai gn (vi nm ti), m hnh ny pht trin
ti VN, anh/ch c sn lng tham gia khng?, 26% tr li rt sn sng, 8% khng
mun tham gia v cm thy mo him. Cn li 66% cn c thm thi gian suy ngh
v tm hiu m hnh trc khi quyt nh.Kt qu ny kh hp l, ph hp vi tnh
cch cn thn, rt r trong u t ca ngi VN.
3.2.2.2 Li th ca cc NHTM
Nh trnh by phn 3.1.1.2, NHTM c b dy lch s v nhiu li th trong
cc hot ng vi cc khch hng c nhn.NHTM l t chc tn dng duy nht trong
h thng cc t chc tn dng VN c php nhn tin gi ca c nhn v h gia
nh.Nh vo mi quan h , cc c nhn khi c nhu cu vay vn lun tm n ngn
hng. Ngoi ra, cc sn phm cho vay ca ngn hng ngy cng c a dng ha v
c nhiu u i, nhm thu ht khch hng, tng doanh s v li nhun cho ngn hng.
V vy, khi pht trin VN, S&Ls s phi chu s cnh tranh rt ln t cc NHTM.
3.2.2.3 Gi nh VN qu cao so vi thu nhp
Ta s tm mc thu nhp trung bnh ca nhng ngi tham gia iu tra. Vi cu
hi Thu nhp hin ti/thng ca anh/ch l bao nhiu?, ta c kt qu nh sau:
Bng 13: Kt qu iu tra kho st v thu nhp/thng
Thu nhp (triu ng)
<5

T l s phiu (%) (fi)


26

72

Tr s gia (xi)
2.5

5 10

42

7.5

10 - 15

16

12.5

15 - 20

17.5

>20

22.5

Gi tr trung bnh l:

Trong khi , ngn sch bnh qun cho vic mua nh l 2.57 t ng. Nh vy,
gi nh gp khong hn 200 ln so vi thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi dn. Khong
cch qu ln gia gi nh v thu nhp nh trn khin thi gian tch ly b ko di. Thi
gian hot ng mt vng qu di s lm mt tnh hiu qu ca S&Ls v lm n tr nn
km hp dn.
3.2.2.4 Cc knh u t ti chnh cha em li hiu qu cao
Trong mt vi nm va qua, li sut huy ng tin gi ca cc NHTM kh cao
(nh im ln n 14 16% nm 2010), tuy nhin, t l lm pht cng mc kh cao
(chng hn nh mc tng trng CPI c nm 2010 ln ti 11.75%) khin cho li sut
thc khi gi tin vo cc ngn hng khng hp dn. Li sut huy ng tng y li sut
cho vay ln cao, khin cc doanh nghip gp rt nhiu kh khn trong sn xut kinh
doanh, thm ch nhiu doanh nghip phi ng ca ngng hot ng do thiu vn. Do
vy, gp vn u t vo cc doanh nghip cng khng phi l cch u t hiu qu.
Bn cnh , th trng chng khon t nm 2008 cng thng xuyn suy gim. Nh
vy, mt kh khn na xut hin i vi S&Ls khi bc vo th trng VN l thiu cc
knh u t em li hiu qu, gip cc khon tin gi ca cc thnh vin sinh li.

73

Trong cuc iu tra, khi tr li cu hi Theo kin ca anh/ch, hin nay VN


c nhng knh u t no c th coi l hiu qu?, 49% cho rng cha c hnh thc
no thc s hiu qu, 6% u t trn th trng chng khon, 25% gp vn vo
cc cng ty, 20% gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng. Kt qu ny a ra hai tn hiu:
mt l a phn ngi dn cha tm c mt knh u t no hiu qu, nn nu S&Ls
pht trin Vit Nam xy dng c chnh sch hp dn, hp l th kh nng thu ht
ngi tham gia l rt cao; tn hiu th hai ng lo ngi hn l vi mt th trng ti
chnh thiu nhng knh u t hiu qu, S&Ls c th lm cch no u t v kim
li cho cc khon tin gi.
3.2.2.5 Hot ng chi h VN
Trong i sng dn gian VN, chi h l mt hnh thc gp vn tit kim c
nhiu nt tng ng vi hot ng ca S&Ls. Cho ti ngy nay, chi h vn tn ti
nhiu vng nng thn, lng qu v nhng ngi tham gia thng l b con h hng
lng xm, lng ging quen thuc. Theo qui nh ti khon 1 v 2, iu 479, b Lut
Dn s 2005, h, hi, biu, phng (sau y gi chung l h) l mt hnh thc giao
dch v ti sn theo tp qun trn c s tho thun ca mt nhm ngi tp hp nhau
li cng nh ra s ngi, thi gian, s tin hoc ti sn khc, th thc gp, lnh h v
quyn, ngha v ca cc thnh vin nhm mc ch tng tr trong nhn dn.
m t hot ng chi h c th ly v d nh sau: Gi s 1 dy h c 10
ngi tham gia, trong 1 ngi ng ln lm ch h. Mi thng mi ngi ng cho
ch h 1 triu ng, tng cng 10 ngi gp c 10 triu ng. Hng thng, 1 trong
s 10 thnh vin c quyn ht h (ht hi), ngha l c vay 10 triu; ln lt
nh vy, sau 10 thng, thnh vin no cng phi ng 10 triu v c nhn 10
triu. Ngoi ra, thnh vin c vay vn trc c th phi ng mt khon hoa hng
cho ch h v tr li cho nhng thnh vin khc. Hnh thc ny gip ngi tham gia

74

dnh dm c khon tin tng i ln t nhng mn tin tit kim nh hng thng,
khuyn khch ngi dn c thc tch ly.
Tuy cch thc hot ng kh n gin, nhng trong nhng nm va qua, c rt
nhiu v la o ti sn xut pht t hot ng chi h, v d: ngi chi sau khi c
ht hi th khng chu ng tin cc k tip theo na hay ch hi c khng chu tr
tin cho nhng ngi khc, la o chim ot ti sn. Nguyn nhn chnh l do gia
nhng ngi tham gia khng c giy t m bo, rng buc m mi lin h ch xut
pht t lng tin. Ngh nh 144/2006/N-CP l mt trong s nhng vn bn php lut
u tin qui nh v hnh thc, quyn, ngha v v trch nhim ca nhng ngi tham
gia h nhm ngn chn vay nng li, la o, lm dng tn nhim hoc cc hnh vi
tri php lut khc chim ot ti sn ca ngi khc (trch iu 2 ca ngh nh).
Mc d vy, s thua l v tnh trng la o ca nhiu dy h trong thi gian qua
li mt n tng xu i vi ngi dn. Do vy, mt vn t ra l: khi xy dng
S&Ls (vi mt s c im ging nh hi h) VN, chng ta cn c nhng chnh sch
cng khai, cng bng, trung thc v cht ch cng nh phi chp nhn dnh nhiu thi
gian thuyt phc, to lng tin ca mi ngi v tnh hiu qu ca m hnh.
3.3 M hnh hot ng d kin ca S&Ls trong lnh vc nh ti Vit Nam
3.3.1. Cc gi thit v iu kin ca m hnh
M hnh hot ng ca mt S&Ls VN c thit lp trn c s mt s iu kin nht
nh ca th trng ti chnh nh sau:
1. Hip hi S&LS vn hnh theo m hnh hot ng mt ln (Terminating
Plan). Theo m hnh s ch tip nhn mt s lng thnh vin nht nh v
n khi tt c mi thnh vin trong hip hi nhn c khon tin cam kt ban
u th hip hi s ngng hot ng.

75

2. S thnh vin ca mt hip hi S&LS l 50 ngi. S tin ng gp nh k l


10,000,000 (10 triu) ng/thnh vin. Cc khon li (nu pht sinh do thnh
vin vay tin sm ca hip hi) s c trnh by c th trong m hnh.S tin
m mi thnh vin s c vay ti a hoc nhn c ti thiu khi hip hi
chm dt hot ng l 1,500,000,000 (1.5 t) ng.

3. Knh u t an ton v c li nhun cao nht l gi tin tit kim vo ngn


hng. iu kin ny c t ra l do hin ti th trng ti chnh VN cn
ang qu ngho nn, c bit thiu cc knh u t an ton v d tip cn. (Trn
thc t, 49% s ngi c hi cho rng VN hin nay cha c knh u t
no l thc s hiu qu). Trong iu kin nn kinh t VN cn nhiu bt n, v
th trng ti chnh cha pht trin nh vy, th gi tin vo ngn hng (c bit
l cc ngn hng ln c uy tn) c l l knh u t an ton v d tip cn nht.
Trong khong thi gian 10 nm ti, vi hi vng rng th trng ti chnh VN c
nhng thay i tch cc v xut hin thm nhiu nhiu knh u t an ton v
c li sut cao hn, iu kin ny c th c loi b
4. C s khc bit v li sut ngn hng i vi gi tr cc khon tin gi tit
kim.C th trong m hnh ny, li sut i vi cc khon tin gi di 150
triu ng l 10%/nm; li sut i vi cc khon tin gi trn 150 triu l
15.6%/nm.
5. Li sut cho vay mua nh trung bnh ca cc ngn hng l 18%/nm.Tuy nhin
trong m hnh ny, nu cc thnh vin vay vn mua nh t S&L, th mc li
sut s ch l 15%/nm.

76

3.3.2. M hnh tch ly c nhn


Di y l m hnh nu mt c nhn khng tham gia hip hi S&L, m t mnh tch
ly v gi ngn hng. C nhn ny s tch ly theo nguyn tc :
C cui mi thng anh ta tch ly 10,000,000 ng. Nh vy mi nm anh ta s
tch ly c: 10,000,000 x 12 = 120,000,000 ng
S tin tch ly c hng nm s c gi tip vo ngn hng vi li sut l
10%/nm, k hn 1 nm. Cui mi nm, s tin tch ly c t nm trc v
s tin mi tch ly c trong nm s c cng li cho ra mt s d
cui k. Theo cch tnh ny, sau 9 nm, c nhn ny c th thu c
1,500,000,000 ng. (S chnh xc l:1,641,326,968 ng). C th nh sau:
Bng 14: Trnh by m hnh tch ly c nhn
Thi gian

S tin thu c

S d nm trc

S d tin gi ti NH (cui
nm)

Nm 1

120,000,000

Nm 2

125,500,000
258,050,000

120,000,000

138,050,000

Nm 3

403,855,000
120,000,000

283,855,000

Nm 4

564,240,500
120,000,000

444,240,500

Nm 5

740,664,550
120,000,000

620,664,550

Nm 6

934,731,005
120,000,000

814,731,005

Nm 7

1,148,204,106
120,000,000

1,028,204,106

77

Nm 8

1,383,024,516
120,000,000

1,263,024,516

Nm 9

1,641,326,968
120,000,000

1,521,326,968

Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc

3.3.3 M hnh S&L


Cc thnh vin ca S&LS s tin hnh np tin theo nguyn tc sau:
C cui mi thng, mi thnh vin s np 10,000,000 ng vo qu ca hip
hi. Nh vy, cui mi thng,hip hi s tch ly c 10,000,000 x 50 =
500,000,000 ng. V s tin ny kh ln, hip hi s em s tin ny gi vo
ngn hng (v ta gi nh gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng l knh u t hiu
qu nht) vi li sut 15.6%/nm, k hn l s thng cn li cho n cui nm.
Nh vy cui mi nm, hip hi s thu c mt khon tin l 6,429,000,000
ng. C th nh sau:
Bng 15: Trnh by cc dng tin S&Ls thu c trong mt nm
Thi gian

S tin thu

Thi gian

(cui

(thng)

Li sut

Tng s tin thu


c

thng)
Thng 1

500,000,000

11

0.143

571,500,000

Thng 2

500,000,000

10

0.130

565,000,000

Thng 3

500,000,000

09

0.117

558,500,000

Thng 4

500,000,000

08

0.104

552,000,000

Thng 5

500,000,000

07

0.091

545,500,000

78

Thng 6

500,000,000

06

0.078

539,000,000

Thng 7

500,000,000

05

0.065

532,500,000

Thng 8

500,000,000

04

0.052

526,000,000

Thng 9

500,000,000

03

0.039

519,500,000

Thng 10

500,000,000

02

0.026

513,000,000

Thng 11

500,000,000

01

0.013

506,500,000

Thng 12

500,000,000

0.000

500,000,000

Cui nm

6,429,000,000

Lu : li sut = 0.1/12*thi gian (s thng)


S tin tch ly c hng nm s c gi tip vo ngn hng vi li sut l
15.6%/nm, k hn 1 nm. Cui mi nm, s tin tch ly c t nm trc
v s tin mi tch ly c trong nm s c cng li cho ra mt s d
cui k.
Ty theo s la chn s dng s tin tch ly c hng nm ca cc thnh vin,
m ta s c 2 trng hp nh sau:
3.3.3.1. Cc thnh vin khng vay vn
Trong trng hp ny, cc thnh vin ca hip hi S&LS hon ton khng vay
vn trc ca hip hi mua nh.H ch np tin vo hip hi v ch n ngy o
hn nhn tin v. Nh vy, theo cch thc tch ly trnh by trn, ch sau 8
nm, thay v 9 nm, hip hi tch ly s tin 1,500,000 x 50 = 75,000,000,000
ng. C th nh sau25:

25

Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 26 M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn, phn Ph lc
Nghin cu khoa hc

79

Bng 16: Qu trnh tch ly i vi cc thnh vin khng vay vn


Thi gian

S tin thu c

S d nm trc

S d tin gi ti NH (cui nm)

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

Nm 1

6,429,000,000

6,429,000,000

Nm 2

6,429,000,000

7,431,924,000

13,860,924,000

Nm 3

6,429,000,000

16,023,228,144

22,452,228,144

Nm 4

6,429,000,000

25,954,775,734

32,383,775,734

Nm 5

6,429,000,000

37,435,644,749

43,864,644,749

Nm 6

6,429,000,000

50,707,529,330

57,136,529,330

Nm 7

6,429,000,000

66,049,827,905

72,478,827,905

Nm 8

6,429,000,000

83,785,525,059

90,214,525,059

Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
Trn thc t l sau 8 nm, hip hi tch ly c 90,214,525,059 ng.Nu tr
i cc chi ph hot ng trong vng 8 nm ny, th mi thnh vin vn c th nhn
c 1,800,000 (1.8 t) ng.S d cn li, sau khi tr chi ph hot ng, nu cn
tha, s c chia u cho cc thnh vin.
*)Tm tt quy trnh:
Bng 17: Tm tt qui trnh i vi m hnh thnh vin khng vay vn
Tng s tin thu c (ng)

90,214,525,059

S tin tr cho mi thnh vin (ng)

1,800,000,000
1,800,000,000 x 50 = 90,000,000,000

Tng s tin tr cho cc thnh vin


(ng)
S d cn li (ng)

214,525,059

80

Sau khi phn b cc li ch, hip hi cn li 214,525,059 ng.S tin ny s


c dng thanh ton cc chi ph hot ng. S tin cn li (nu c) s c chia
u cho cc thnh vin, hoc s dng ty theo mc ch a s ca hip hi.
*) nh gi:
So vi vic cc thnh vin t tch ly th vic tham gia m hnh S&LS ny r rng l
c u th hn hn. Cc thnh vin ch phi mt 8 nm, thay v 9 nm tch ly; nhng
li c th nhn c mt khon tin ln hn so vi khi t h tch ly. iu ny th
hin hai c im c bn ca nh ch ti chnh ny, l tnh tng h v tnh tch
ly.Cc thnh vin cng tch ly s to ra mt khon tin ln hn rt nhiu so vi tng
c nhn.Sau , tnh tch ly hay tnh kinh t ca quy m s pht huy tc dng, khi mt
mc li sut cao hn li c p dng cho mt khon tin ln hn.Kt qu l lng
tin tch ly c s ln hn rt nhiu. (Nu cc thnh vin ng gp trong 9 nm
ging nh tng c nhn, th tng s tin thu c cui cng s l 110,716,990,968
ng, gp ri s tin d kin 75,000,000,000 ng. Mi thnh vin c th nhn c
n 2.2 t ng thay v 1.5 t ng).
3.3.3.2. Cc thnh vin c vay vn
Tuy nhin, khong thi gian 8 nm c th vn l kh di.Nhiu thnh vin ca
hip hi c th s khng mun i n sau 8 nm mi mua nh. Thay vo ,h quyt
nh s vay vn ca hip hi trc, v sau s tip tc ng tin cho n khi mi
thnh vin khc u mua c nh, hoc khi tch ly c s tin ti thiu.

3.3.3.2.1. Khon thu t cc thnh vin


Cng ging nh trong m hnh thnh vin khng vay vn, cc thnh vin trong m
hnh mi thnh vin c vay vn cng phi np cc khon ng gp nh k l
10,000,000 ng/thng. Nhng sau thay v tip tc gi ton b s tin thu c

81

cui nm vo ngn hng, hip hi S&LS s trch mt khon tin cho cc thnh vin
vay. Quy trnh c th nh sau26:
C cui mi thng, mi thnh vin s np 10,000,000 vo qu ca hip hi.
Nh vy, cui mi thng,hip hi s tch ly c 10,000,000 x 50 =
500,000,000 ng. V s tin ny kh ln, hip hi s em s tin ny gi vo
ngn hng (v ta gi nh gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng l knh u t hiu
qu nht) vi li sut 15.6%/nm, k hn l s thng cn li cho n cui
nm. Nh vy cui mi nm, hip hi s thu c mt khon tin l
6,429,000,000ng.
Theo gi thit trn, cc thnh vin ch c th vay ti a l 1,500,000,000
ng. Cng theo nh tnh ton trn th mi nm hip hi tch ly c
6,429,000,000 ng. iu ny c ngha l mi nm hip hi s ch c th cho
ti a 4 thnh vin vay, tng ng vi s tin l 6,000,000,000 ng.
S tin cn li 429,000,000 ng s c gi li vo ngn hng vi li sut
15.6%/nm, k hn 1 nm.Cui mi nm, s tin tch ly c t nm trc
v s d mi tch ly c trong nm s c cng li cho ra mt s d
cui k.
Bng 18: Trnh by khon thu t cc thnh vin trong 9 nm u tin
S thnh

S tin

S d

S d tin gi ti

Thi

Tng s tin

Cho thnh

S thnh

vin cha

gi li NH

nm trc

NH (cui nm)

gian

thu c

vin vay

vin vay

vay

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

Nm 1

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

46

429,000,000

429,000,000

Nm 2

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

42

429,000,000

493,350,000

922,350,000

Nm 3

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

38

429,000,000

1,060,702,500

1,489,702,500

26

Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 27 M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc
thnh vin), phn Ph lc Nghin cu khoa hc

82

Nm 4

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

34

429,000,000

1,713,157,875

2,142,157,875

Nm 5

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

30

429,000,000

2,463,481,556

2,892,481,556

Nm 6

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

26

429,000,000

3,326,353,790

3,755,353,790

Nm 7

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

22

429,000,000

4,318,656,858

4,747,656,858

Nm 8

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

18

429,000,000

5,459,805,387

5,888,805,387

Nm 9

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

14

429,000,000

6,772,126,195

7,201,126,195

Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc
n cui nm th 9, vn cn 14 thnh vin cha c vay vn.Lc ny, hip
hi tch ly c mt khon tin gi tr gi 7,201,126,195 ng.Khon tin
ny khng cp nt cho 14 thnh vin cn li. Tuy nhin, hip hi vn cn
mt khon thu na.

3.3.3.2.2. Khon thu t li


Bc 1: Tnh li
Bt u t nm th 2, cc thnh vin ca hip hi bt u c th vay vn.V vic
vay vn trc ca cc thnh vin chnh l vic h s dng trc khon ng gp ca
mnh, v cc thnh vin vay tin mua nh trc s c li hn cc thnh vin nhn
tin sau cng.V vy, bn cnh khon ng gp 10,000,000 hng thng, cc thnh vin
vay tin mua nh trc cn phi tr li cho khon vay ca mnh.Cc thnh vin vay
mua nh. Nguyn tc tnh li nh sau:
Li sut quy nh l 15%/nm
Nhu cu vn vay = 1,500,000,000 khon tin m thnh vin ng gp
Cho rng s tin gc mi k l nh nhau = nhu cu vn vay/s k
Li c tnh trn s d n gim dn qua cc nm
Li phi tr hng thng = tng s tin li / s thng cn li

83

V d i vi 4 ngi c vay vn u tin vo cui nm th nht27:


Bng 19: Tnh li vay ca 4 ngi vay vn u tin vo cui nm th nht
1 ngi

4 ngi

S tin ng

Nhu cu vn

S tin tr vo

gp (ng)

vay (ng)

mi k (ng)

(nm)

120,000,000

1,380,000,000

D n
(ng)

Tin li phi
tr (ng)

172,500,000

1,380,000,000

207,000,000

172,500,000

1,207,500,000

181,125,000

172,500,000

1,035,000,000

155,250,000

172,500,000

862,500,000

129,375,000

172,500,000

690,000,000

103,500,000

172,500,000

517,500,000

77,625,000

172,500,000

345,000,000

51,750,000

172,500,000

172,500,000

25,875,000

Tng li

931,500,000

3,726,000,000

9,703,125

38,812,500

Li/thng

Lu :
S k (nm) = 9 s nm thnh vin ng gp vn trc . Trong trng
hp 4 ngi ny vay vn vo cui nm th nht, s k s l 9-1=8 nm. S k
tr n s gim tng ng i vi cc thnh vin vay vn sau
S tin tr n mi k = nhu cu vn vay/s k

27

Kt qu tnh tonchi tit i vi cc thnh vin vay vn vo nhng nm sau c trnh by trong Bng 28
M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc thnh vin vay vn), phn Ph lc
Nghin cu khoa hc

84

D n = nhu cu vn vay s tin tr mi k x s k qua. V d k th 2,


d n = nhu cu vn vay s tin tr n mi k x 2
Tin li phi tr mi k = d n mi k x 0.15
Tin li hng thng = tng li /(s k *12)
Theo nguyn tc nh vy th s tin li phi tr ca nhng ngi vay trong vng 8
nm u s c tnh ton nh sau:
Bng 20: Trnh by s li vay phi tr ca nhng ngi vay trong 8 nm u
Thi gian vay

S tin li/thng/ngi (ng)

S tin li/thng/4ngi (ng)

Cui nm 1

9,703,125

38,812,500

Cui nm 2

9,000,000

36,000,000

Cui nm 3

8,312,500

33,250,000

Cui nm 4

7,650,000

30,600,000

Cui nm 5

7,031,250

28,125,000

Cui nm 6

6,500,000

26,000,000

Cui nm 7

6,187,500

24,750,000

Cui nm 8

6,750,000

27,000,000

Bc 2: Gi tit kim tin tr li


Nguyn tc gi tin tr li cng ging nh nguyn tc gi tin ng gp vo ngn
hng.
Ta gi nh rng s tin tr li thu c cng c gi cng vi s tin ng
gp hng thng hng mc li sut cao hn l 15.6%/nm.

S tin tch ly c cui mi nm s c gi tip vo ngn hng vi li sut


l 15.6%/nm, k hn 1 nm. Cui mi nm, s tin tch ly c t nm

85

trc v s tin mi tch ly c trong nm s c cng li cho ra mt


s d cui k.
Sau 9 nm, s tin tr li m cc thnh vin thu c l: 22,308,982,055 ng28:
Bng 21: Trnh by s tin thu c t li vay
Thi gian

S ngi

S tin li thu

S d nm trc

S d tin gi ti NH

tr li

c (ng)

(ng)

cui nm (ng)

Cui nm 1

Cui nm 2

497,770,313

497,770,313

Cui nm 3

959,470,313

572,435,859

1,531,906,172

Cui nm 4

12

1,385,901,563

1,761,692,098

3,147,593,660

Cui nm 5

16

1,778,346,563

3,619,732,709

5,398,079,272

Cui nm 6

20

2,139,049,688

6,207,791,162

8,346,840,850

Cui nm 7

24

2,472,499,688

9,598,866,977

12,071,366,665

Cui nm 8

28

2,789,918,438

13,882,071,665

16,671,990,102

Cui nm 9

32

3,136,193,438

19,172,788,617

22,308,982,055

Lu : T nm th hai tr i:
s d nm trc = s d tin gi ti ngn hng (cui nm trc) x 1.15
S d tin gi ti ngn hng cui nm = s tin thu c + s d nm trc

3.3.3.2.3. Quyt ton cc khon thu chi


Bc 1: Cp khon tin 1,500,000,000 ng cho 14 thnh vin cn li
cp khon tin 1,500,000,000 ng cho 14 thnh vin cn li cn
21,000,000,000 ng.Tuy nhin, s d ca cc khon ng gp ca cc thnh vin ch

28

Kt qu tnh tonchi tit c trnh by trong Bng 29 M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li), phn Ph
lc Nghin cu khoa hc

86

cn li 7,201,126,195 ng.V vy, hip hi s trch thm 13,798,873,805 ng t s


d cc khon tr li b p cho cc khon thiu ht ny.
Bng 22: Trnh by vic cp vn cho 14 thnh vin cn li
1,500,000,000 x 14 = 21,000,000,000

Tng s tin cn thit


S d ca cc khon ng gp

7,201,126,195

Trch t s d cc khon tr li

13,798,873,805

Bc 2: Phn b li ch cn li
Sau khi trch 13,798,873,805 ng, hip hi s cn li 8,510,108,250 ng.S
tin ny s c dng phn b li ch cho cc thnh vin, vi kt qu cui cng t
c s l s tin m mi thnh vin nhn c s bng s tin h nhn c nu t
mnh tch ly mi thng 10,000,000 ng trong vng 9 nm, vi li sut l 11%/nm
(so vi m hnh c nhn t tch ly ch l 10%/nm). Nh vy, tng s tin mi thnh
vin nhn c phi tng ng 1,699,676,645 ng, tc l h phi c phn chia
thm li nhun sao cho h s nhn c tng s li ch l 199,676,645 ng (=
1,699,676,645 1,500,000,000).
i vi cc thnh vin vay vn trc nm th 9, h s c li th do c vay
vn vi li sut thp hn li sut yu cu trn th trng (li sut vay t cc ngn
hng). S tin li phi tr theo li sut yu cu th trng c tnh ging nh s tin
li phi tr theo li sut ca hip hi S&L. Tuy nhin, thay v dng li sut 15%/nm,
ta s dng li sut 18%/nm ca th trng. Li th thu c chnh l chnh lch trong
s tin phi tr theo li sut ca S&LS v theo th trng. Phn li th ny sau s
c tr khi tng li ch b p thm 199,676,645, tnh ra li ch thc s cn c
b p thm.

87

i vi cc thnh vin nhn tin vo cui nm th 9, h s khng c li th do


c vay vn vi li sut thp hn li sut yu cu trn th trng (li sut vay t cc
ngn hng). V vy, h s nhn c ton b s tin b p 199,676,645.
Bng 23: Trnh by vic phn b li nhun cn li cho cc thnh vin
Thi gian

S tin li phi

S tin li phi tr

Li th t chnh

Li ch c

S tin cn

vay n

tr (theo S&L)

(theo th trng)

lch li vay

phn b thm

ngi

phn b thm

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

vay n

(ng)

Cui nm 1

931,500,000

1,117,800,000

186,300,000

13,376,645

53,506,579

Cui nm 2

705,600,000

846,720,000

141,120,000

58,556,645

234,226,579

Cui nm 3

558,600,000

670,320,000

111,720,000

87,956,645

351,826,579

Cui nm 4

428,400,000

514,080,000

85,680,000

113,996,645

455,986,579

Cui nm 5

315,000,000

378,000,000

63,000,000

136,676,645

546,706,579

Cui nm 6

218,400,000

262,080,000

43,680,000

155,996,645

623,986,579

Cui nm 7

138,600,000

166,320,000

27,720,000

171,956,645

687,826,579

Cui nm 8

75,600,000

90,720,000

15,120,000

184,556,645

738,226,579

199,676,645

18

3,594,179,606

Cui nm 9

Tng

7,286,472,239

Bc 3: Thanh ton cc chi ph hot ng


Sau khi phn b cc li ch, hip hi cn li 1,223,636,011 ng.S tin ny s
c dng thanh ton cc chi ph hot ng. S tin cn li (nu c) s c chia
u cho cc thnh vin, hoc s dng ty theo mc ch a s ca hip hi.
*) nh gi

88

Nu so snh v s tuyt i, m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn khng mang li


hiu qu bng m hnh cc thnh vin khng vay vn: thi gian hot ng ca hip hi
ko di hn, v gi tr mi thnh vin nhn c cng thp hn. Tnh tng h v tch
ly v th khng c th hin r rng.
Hn na, do cc thnh vin vay vn trong qu trnh hot ng ca hip hi
S&L, nn s ny sinh vn m bo s cng bng cho mi thnh vin tham gia.Cc
thnh vin vay sm s c li hn cc thnh vin vay sau. V vy, m bo s cng
bng, cc thnh vin vay cng sm th s phi tr s tin li cng ln.Vic tr li cng
s khin cho vic tnh ton cc dng tin ra vo hip hi v vic quyt nh, phn b
cc li ch cui k tr nn phc tp hn rt nhiu.
Tuy nhin, m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn li c u im l nhiu thnh vin
s khng phi i n nm cui cng mi c th mua nh.Nhng thnh vin c iu
kin kinh t kh hn c th la chn vay tin trc ca hip hi vi li sut u i
mua nh trc, ri tr cc khon tin ng gp v li trong thi gian cn li.S tin li
s dng phn b li ch cho cc thnh vin vay tin sau, hoc khng vay tin.Hn
na, nu so vi m hnh c nhn t tch ly th m hnh S&LS vn mang li li nhun
cao hn.
Cc hip hi S&LS nn cn nhc kh nng kinh t ca cc thnh vin trc khi
quyt nh p dng m hnh ny. Nu cc thnh vin c kh nng kinh t ng u
nhau th nn p dng m hnh cho thnh vin vay; v nh vy li nhun cui k ca cc
thnh vin s cao hn, v thi gian s c rt ngn. Cn nu trong hip hi c nhng
thnh vin c kh nng kinh t cao hn v sn sng ng nhiu hn c vay vn
trc th hip hi nn p dng m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn.

*)Tm tt qu trnh ca m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn:


89

Bng 24: Tm tt qu trnh ca m hnh cho thnh vin vay vn:

Thi
gian

Tng s tin
thu c t ng
gp

Tng s tin thu

Cho thnh

c t tin li

vin vay

S tin

S d

gi li NH (ng)

nm trc (ng)

S d tin gi (cui nm) (ng)

T ng gp

T tin li

Tng

T ng gp

T tin li

Tng

T ng gp

T tin li

Tng

Nm 1

6,429,000,000

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

429,000,000

429,000,000

429,000,000

Nm 2

6,429,000,000

497,770,313

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

497,770,313

926,770,313

493,350,000

493,350,000

922,350,000

497,770,313

1,420,120,313

Nm 3

6,429,000,000

959,470,313

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

959,470,313

1,388,470,313

1,060,702,500

572,435,859

1,633,138,359

1,489,702,500

1,531,906,172

3,021,608,672

Nm 4

6,429,000,000

1,385,901,563

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

1,385,901,563

1,814,901,563

1,713,157,875

1,761,692,098

3,474,849,973

2,142,157,875

3,147,593,661

5,289,751,536

Nm 5

6,429,000,000

1,778,346,563

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

1,778,346,563

2,207,346,563

2,463,481,556

3,619,732,709

6,083,214,265

2,892,481,556

5,398,079,272

8,290,560,828

Nm 6

6,429,000,000

2,139,049,688

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

2,139,049,688

2,568,049,688

3,326,353,790

6,207,791,162

9,534,144,952

3,755,353,790

8,346,840,850

12,102,194,640

Nm 7

6,429,000,000

2,472,499,688

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

2,472,499,688

2,901,499,688

4,318,656,858

9,598,866,977

13,917,523,835

4,747,656,858

12,071,366,665

16,819,023,523

Nm 8

6,429,000,000

2,789,918,438

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

2,789,918,438

3,218,918,438

5,459,805,387

13,882,071,665

19,341,877,052

5,888,805,387

16,671,990,103

22,560,795,490

6,429,000,000

3,136,193,438

6,000,000,000

429,000,000

3,136,193,438

3,565,193,438

6,772,126,195

19,172,788,617

25,944,914,812

7,201,126,195

22,308,982,055

29,510,108,250

Nm 9

21,000,000,000

8,510,108,250
Phn b li ch

7,286,472,239

S tin cn li sau cng

1,223,636,011

90

Kt lun
Tm li, qua qu trnh nghin c, ti cung cp cho ngi c mt ci nhn
tng quan v nhng c trng c bn nht ca S&Ls, nh gi nhng tc ng ca
nh ch ti chnh ny i vi th trng nh ti M v xut c m hnh hot
ng d kin ca Hip hi ny trong iu kin th trng nh ti VN.
Trn c s trnh by nhng thng tin c bn nht v S&Ls, bao gm khi nim,
chc nng, vai tr, c ch hot ng , cc m hnh hot ng tng c p dng ti
M,v nhng nhn t nh hng n hot ng ca t chc ny . Qua phn ny, c th
hiu kh chi tit v nhng c im v cch thc vn hnh ca Hip hi, nhng u
im v thiu st ca tng m hnh, t c th xut c mt m hnh hon chnh
hn.
Vic nghin cu tc ng ca vic gia tng quy m v s lng ca cc S&Ls
t nhng nm 1930 n s thay i trong s lng nh xy mi ti M, v c nhng
o lut ca Chnh ph M c ban hnh trong thi gian ch ra nguyn nhn
v ca h thng cc hip hi S&Ls trong nhng nm 1980, ng thi khi qut v xu
hng pht trin ca nh ch ny trong th k XXI.
Cui cng, nh gi trin vng pht trin m hnh hot ng ca S&Ls trong
lnh vc nh ti VN, nhng iu kin thnh lp m hnh ny ti VN, nhm nghin
cu xut m hnh hot ng d kin cho VN (c da trn mt s gi nh ca th
trng). Cc m hnh xut nh m hnh c nhn t tch ly, m hnh cho thnh vin
vay vn. Mi m hnh xut u c tnh ton c th v s tin ng gp, thi gian
ng gp, cch thc cho vay, cch thc phn b li ch i vi cc thnh vin.

91

Trong tnh hnh th trng nh (v c th trng bt ng sn) ng bng nh


hin nay, cn c mt c ch gii php "ph bng" v kch thch th trng hot ng
si ng tr li. Vic xy dng cc S&Ls s gip nhng ngi lao ng c thu nhp
trung bnh (chim a s trong ngun lao ng ti cc thnh ph ln) c kh nng mua
c nh, t kch thch nhu cu v nh . Khi cu tng mnh, th cung cng s theo
m tng trng. Th trng nh , v theo l th trng bt ng sn, c trin
vng phc hi.

92

Danh mc ti liu tham kho


1. Frederic S. Mishkin (2007), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial
markets, 8th edn, Pearson Education, Inc, Hong Kong
2. Jeff Madura (2009), Financial Markets and Institutions, 9th edn, South Western
Cengage Learning, Hong Kong
3. Ely Bert & Vicki Vanderhoff (1991), Lessons Learned from the S&LS Debacle: The
Price of Failed Public Policy, bo co s 108. Lewisville, Tex.: Vin nghin cu chnh
sch
4. Maurice Weinrobe (2003), Savings and Loan Demand for Liquid Assets: Theory,
Evidence and Implications for Policy, nghin cu do Federal Home Loan Bank Board
ti tr
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Cch t chc v vn hnh thnh cng (Cyclopedia of Building, Loan and Savings
Associations: How to organize and successfully conduct them), ti bn ln th t,
American Building Association News Co., Chicago
6. Horace F. Clark, PhD & Frank A. Chase (1927), Cc yu t ca Hip hi xy dngv
cho vay hin i (Elements of the modern Building and Loan Associations), The
MacMillan Company , New York
7. Jeff Madura (2006): Financial Markets and Institutions, 7e, Thomson South-Western
8. Carroll D. Wright, Ninth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor: Building and
Loan Associations (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 1894), 214
9. Josephine Hedges Ewalt, A Business Reborn: The Savings and Loan Story, 1930-1960
(Chicago: American Savings and Loan Institute Publishing Co., 1962), 391
10. Ewalt, A Business Reborn, 391, The Depression and Federal Regulation
11. Savings and Loan Fact Book, 1955 (Chicago: United States Savings and Loan League,
1955)
12. Norman Strunk and Fred Case, Where Deregulation Went Wrong (Chicago: United
States League of Savings Institutions, 1988), 10
13. Lawrence White, The S&LS Debacle: Public Policy Lessons for Bank and Thrift
Regulation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), 150

93

14. Managing the Crisis: The FDIC and RTC Experience, 19801994 (Washington, D.C.:
Resolution Trust Corporation, 1998), 795, 798
15. Historical Statistics on Banking, Bank and Thrift Failures, FDIC

website:

http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob accessed 31 August 2000


16. 1999 Fact Book: A Statistical Profile on the United States Thrift Industry.
(Washington, D.C.: Office of Thrift Supervision, June 2000), 1, 4.
17. Website: http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab1951-1994.htm vo 22h21 th
7 ngy 07/04/2012
18. Bi vit Thi k hong kim (Gilded Age) trn website wikipedia.org truy cp lc
02h00 ngy 18/4/2012, ng dn: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age
19. Bo co nh gi th ha VN ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB) ti VN ngy
5/4/2012
20. Bo co phn tch ngnh: Din bin nm 2010 & Trin vng nm 2011 ca Phng
Nghin cu Phn tch, cng ty c phn chng khon Ph Wall.
21. n phm Tng iu tra dn s v nh VN nm 2009: Kt qu ton b ca Ban ch
o tng iu tra dn s v nh Trung ng, NXB Thng k
22. Bi vit 10 nm hot ng th trng chng khon VN v nh hng chin lc giai
on 2010 -2020 ca tc gi Nguyn Sn, tp ch Kinh t v d bo, chuyn san
Tng quan kinh t - x hi VN, s 2 thng 6/2010.
23. Bo co phn tch kinh t VN nm 2008 ca cng ty c phn chng khon Eurocapital
(HN thng 1 nm 2009), tham kho trn website ca cng ty truy cp lc 15h30 ngy
11/4/2012

ng

dn:

eurocapital.vn/Modules/CMS/Upload/108/Nam_2009/ECC%20REPORT%202008%2
0vietnamese%20ver.pdf
24. Bi vit Bc tranh th trng ti chnh 2011 k vng nm 2012 ca tc gi Trng Trit
trn website ca Vin chin lc v chnh sch ti chnh, B Ti chnh, truy cp lc
17h40

ngy

11/4/2012,

ng

dn:

http://nif.mof.gov.vn/portal/page/portal/nif/Newdetail?p_page_id=1&pers_id=429723
97&item_id=54855429&p_details=1

94

25. Bi vit Tng iu tra dn s v nh nm 2009: Cng b kt qu iu tra ton b trn


website ca Qu dn s Lin hip quc, truy cp vo lc 22h30 ngy 11/4/2012,
ng dn: http://vietnam.unfpa.org/public/lang/vi/pid/6394
26. Kho st mc sng h dn c nm 2010, phn 5: Thu nhp, trn website ca Tng cc
thng

k,

truy

cp

lc

22h55

ngy

11/4/2012,

ng

dn:

http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=417&idmid=4&ItemID=11138
27. Bi vit Ngn hng m ca cho vay mua nh ca tc gi Phc H trn website ca
Din n kinh t VN, chuyn trang hp tc gia Vietnam Report v VietnamNet, truy
cp lc 16h03 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn: http://vef.vn/2011-11-25-ngan-hang-mocua-cho-vay-mua-nha
28. Bi vit Ton cnh th trng bt ng sn nm 2010 trn website dothi.net, truy cp
lc 16h53 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn: http://dothi.net/thi-truong/phan-tich-nhandinh/15986/toan-canh-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-nam-2010.htm
29. Website: www.wikipedia.org, truy cp lc 02h00 ngy 13/4/2012, ng dn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_association
30. Website ca y ban nhn dn tnh Lm ng, truy cp lc 17h20 ngy 10/4/2012,
ng

dn:

http://w3.lamdong.gov.vn/vi-VN/a/damrong/tinhhinhktxh/Pages/nam-

2007-ktvn-phat-trien-toan-dien.aspx
31. Website ca ngn hng HSBC, truy cp lc 15h15 ngy 10/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.hsbc.com.vn/1/2/personal/loans/home-loan
32. Website ca Tng cc thng k, truy cp lc 15h37 ngy 12/4/2012, ng dn:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=388&idmid=3&ItemID=11548
33. Website ca NHNN truy cp lc 11h40 ngy 10/04/2012, ng dn:
http://www.sbv.gov.vn/

95

Ph lc
Ph lc 1: Bng cu hi kho st iu tra v nhu cu mua nh v kin ca ngi
dn v cc knh u t trn th trng ti chnh hin nay

BNG CU HI IU TRA
1. Gii thiu v mc ch nghin cu:
Nhu cu mua nh ca ngi VN ang ngy cng gia tng, c bit l nhu cu mua nh ti
nhng thnh ph ln nh HN v thnh ph HCM. Tuy nhin, gi nh ti cc khu vc ny
thng cao hn rt nhiu ln so vi thu nhp trung bnh ca ngi lao ng. Do , vic s
hu mt cn nh ti cc thnh ph ln tr thnh mt vic tng i kh khn v i hi s
tch ly ti chnh trong mt thi gian di.
Vi mong mun nghin cu v pht trin mt m hnh trung gian ti chnh mi vi vai tr h
tr ngi dn trong vic mua nh, nhm nghin cu rt mong nhn c s h tr ca anh/ch
bng vic cung cp mt s thng tin v c nhn, thu nhp v nhu cu nh . Cm n s gip
ca anh/ch.

2. Thng tin c nhn:


- H tn: ................................................................................................ Gii tnh: Nam/ N
- Qu qun:.............................................................................................................................
- Nm sinh:.............................................................................................................................
- Ngh nghip: ............................................ Ni lm vic:....................................................
- Tnh trng hn nhn:

c thn

3. Anh/ch c nhu cu mua nh HN khng?


a. C
b. Cha chc chn

96

lp gia nh

4. Anh/ch d kin s c th mua nh trong thi gian no?


a. trong vng 5 nm ti
b. trong vng 5-10 nm ti
c. trong vng 10-15 nm ti
d. trn 15 nm

5. Ngn sch d kin dnh cho vic mua nh ca anh/ch l bao nhiu?
a. di 1 t
b. t 1-3 t
c. t 3-5 t
d. trn 5 t

6. Thu nhp hin ti/thng ca anh/ch l bao nhiu?


a. di 5 triu
b. t 5-10 triu
c. t 10-15 triu
d. t 15-20 triu
e. trn 20 triu
7. Ngoi tin lng hng thng, anh/ch c th s dng nhng ngun vn no ti tr
cho vic mua nh?
a. vay mn t ngi thn, bn b
b. vay ngn hng
c. cc ngun thu nhp khc, nh: gp vn vo cng ty, u t th trng chng
khon
8. Theo kin ca anh/ch, hin nay VN c nhng knh u t no c th coi l hiu
qu?
a. gi tin tit kim vo ngn hng
b. u t trn th trng chng khon

97

c. gp vn vo cc cng ty
d. cha c hnh thc no thc s hiu qu
9. S&Ls (S&Ls) l mt m hnh trung gian ti chnh pht trin rt ph bin M v mt s
nc chu u. Trong , cc hi vin tham gia theo nh k s ng gp mt s tin nht nh
vo hi v sau mt thi gian c hi h tr cho vay vn mua nh.
Anh/ch tng nghe ni hay bit n m hnh ny cha?
a. tng nghe ni
b. cha bao gi
10. Nu trong tng lai gn (vi nm ti), m hnh ny pht trin ti VN, anh/ch c sn
lng tham gia khng?
a. rt sn sng
b. cn c thm thi gian suy ngh v tm hiu m hnh trc khi quyt nh
c. khng mun tham gia v cm thy mo him

98

Ph lc 2
Bng 25: Danh sch 100 ngi tham gia tr li phiu iu tra
STT H tn:

Gii
Qu qun:
tnh:

Nm
sinh:

Ngh nghip:

Ni lm vic:

Nguyn Th
Nhim

Nam nh

1966

Cng nhn vin


quc phng

X nghip bn
1 - b quc phng

L Minh Tuyt

HN

1968

Cn b

Bnh vin Vit


c

Trng Quc
Vit

Nam

HN

1990

Kim ton

Cng ty kim ton


KPMG

Trn L t

Nam

HN

1980

K s

HN

Trng Th
Chu Loan

HN

1987

Nhn vin Xut


Nhp Khu

Cng ty Kona
Partner

V Th Thanh
Hu

Ninh Bnh

1987

Nhn vin

HN

Nguyn Bo
Anh

Thi Bnh

1982

Nhn vin thm


nh tn dng

Ngn hng VDB

Nguyn Xun
Vit

Nam

Bc Ninh

1978

Kinh doanh
khch sn

Khch sn Cozy
Hotel

Nguyn Vn
Hng

Nam

Nam nh

1984

B i

HN

10

L Cng Minh

Nam

Ch Linh Hi Dng

1984

K s phn
mm

Cng ty FPT

11

Hong M Hnh

HN

1987

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

HN

12

L Ba

Nam

HN

1982

Nhn vin kinh


doanh

HN

13

m Th Thy

Thi Bnh

1967

Nhn vin kinh


doanh

Cng ty Ging cy
trng 1

99

14

Tr Dng

Nam

HN

1954

Gio vin

Trng Cao ng
ngh HN

15

m Quang
Thng

Thi bnh

1975

Nhn vin kinh


doanh

Cng ty Agricare

16

ng Vn Tn

Nam

Thi Bnh

1964

K s xy dng

HN

17

Phm Ngc
Thng

Nam

K s xy dng

HN

18

L Bch Thy

Cn b cng
nhn vin

HN

19

L nh t

Nam

Thanh Ha

1988

K s cng ngh
HN
thng tin

20

Bi Thy Linh

HN

1988

K ton

HN

21

Nguyn Mu
Thu Huyn

HN

1987

K ton

HN

22

Trn Anh Hng

Nam

HN

1983

Nhn vin bn
hng

HN

23

Nguyn B KIn Nam

HN

1989

Nhn vin IT

HN

24

Nguyn Minh
Thu

HN

1979

Nhn vin kinh


doanh

Cng ty BMF
Global

25

Chu Thy
Qunh

HN

1960

K ton

X nghip xe but
HN

26

on Th Yn

Bc Giang

HN

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

HN

27

Phm Th Kim
Dung

Thanh Tr,
HN

1986

Nhn vin vn
phng

Vin du kh HN

28

Phm Th Tuyt

Thanh Tr,
HN

1988

Nhn vin vn
phng

Ngn Hng SHB

29

Vng Th Thu
Trang

HN

1989

Chuyn vin
marketing

HN

30

Nguyn Quc
Hng

Nam

HN

1977

Ph ban u t

Ngn hng BIDV

100

31

Phm Th Thu
Hng

32

Nguyn Thu H

HN

33

Hong Vn
Hng

Nam

34

Nguyn Th
Hng Tho

35

Nhn vin

S in lc HN

1960

Ph gim c

HN

Yn

1952

Ging vin

i hc M a
cht

ng Ha,
HN

1985

Kin trc s

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

Ch Cng

Nam

Hi Phng

1987

K s xy dng

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

36

V L Dng

Nam

Bc Ninh

1971

Kin trc s

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

37

Nguyn Th
Hng Vn

HN

1980

K s giao
thng

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

38

Trn Huy Hiu

Nam

Thanh Ha

1958

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

39

L Th Thu
Hng

1985

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

40

ng Thy
Dng

Thi Bnh

1983

Nghin cu
vin

Trung tm khoa
hc bo qun

41

Nguyn Thu
Phng

Bc Ninh

1980

Cng chc

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

42

V Th Tho

Thi Bnh

1980

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

43

Nguyn Th Mai
Hoa

Thanh Ha

1982

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

101

Vnh Phc

1982

k ton

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

Trn Mnh Tun Nam

H Nam

1957

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

46

L Vn Hng

Nam

HN

1974

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

47

Trn Th Hi
Yn

Bc Ninh

1988

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

48

L Cng Dng

Nam

Qung Ninh

1985

Chuyn vin
chnh

Ngn hng
Sacombank

49

Nguyn PHc
c

Nam

Hi Dng

1983

K s cng
ngh thng tin

Tp on vin
thng qun i
Viettel

50

Hong Vn
Nghin

Nam

Thi Bnh

1963

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

51

Nguyn Vn
Tht

Nam

Hi Dng

1957

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

52

Nguyn Hoi
Thanh

Thanh Ha

1984

K ton

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

53

Phm Th
Qunh

Ngh An

1987

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

54

Hong Vit H

Tuyn
Quang

1988

K ton

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

55

Phm Th
Phng

Thi Bnh

1986

K ton

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

56

Nguyn Mai
Hng

Hi Dng

1980

Chuyn vin
chnh

Tng cc d tr
nh nc

57

Nguyn nh
Thng

Nam

Thi Bnh

1980

K s cng
ngh thng tin

Cng ty c phn
gii php s VN

44

Trn Th Lin

45

102

58

Trnh nh Hi

Nam

59

Phng T Hoa

60

Nguyn Duy
Linh

Nam

HN

Gim c

Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC

1977

K ton

Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC

1977

K S in

S in lc HN

1984

K s cng
ngh thng tin

Cng ty c phn
cng nghip in
AEC

1952

HN

61

Trnh Hi Anh

Nam

62

Phan Quang
Minh

Nam

HN

1963

Cn b

X nghip xe but
HN

63

Nguyn Vn
Nam

Nam

HN

1982

Nhn vin kinh


doanh

HN

64

Nguyn Th
Hng Hnh

Hi Phng

1962

Nhn vin

X nghip xe but
HN

65

Nguyn Tr
Dng

Nam

HN

1961

Cn b

X nghip xe but
HN

66

Phan Hu Hip

Nam

Thi Bnh

1981

K s t

X nghip xe but
HN

67

L Tun Php

Nam

HN

1982

Nhn vin

X nghip xe but
HN

68

T Th Thy
Anh

HN

1958

K ton

X nghip xe but
HN

69

Phm L Thu
H

HN

1963

Nhn vin

X nghip xe but
HN

70

Hong Th Kim
Dung

HN

1978

K ton

X nghip xe but
HN

71

Trn Th Hng
Thanh

Nam nh

1984

K ton

X nghip xe but
HN

103

72

Trng Diu
Hng

H Nam

1983

Th qu

X nghip xe but
HN

73

Dng Th
Hng Tr

HN

1973

Nhn vin

X nghip xe but
HN

74

Nguyn Thy
Nga

HN

1972

K ton

X nghip xe but
HN

75

Lng V Vn
Anh

Hi Dng

1978

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

X nghip xe but
HN

76

Cao Thu Hng

HN

1989

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

X nghip xe but
HN

77

Cao Thi H

HN

1983

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

X nghip xe but
HN

78

Nguyn Tin
Lc

Nam

HN

1979

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

X nghip xe but
HN

79

Nguyn Quang
Minh

Nam

HN

1983

Li xe

X nghip xe but
HN

80

Xun Chin

Nam

Bc Giang

1978

Nhn vin bn
v

X nghip xe but
HN

81

Trn Tun Anh

Nam

Bc Ninh

1974

Li xe

X nghip xe but
HN

82

Trn Phng
Chin

Nam

HN

1984

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

HN

83

Trng Thu
Vn

Lng Sn

1987

Nhn vin hnh


chnh

HN

84

Lng Ngc
Anh

Nam

Vnh Phc

1986

K s

HN

85

Nguyn Vit
Khoa

Nam

HN

1982

Nhn vin IT

Ngn hng

86

on Cng
Tho

Nam

Hi Dng

1960

Gio vin

Trng THCS
Ging V, HN

87

Nguyn Thnh
Vinh

Nam

1960

Gio vin

Trng THPT HN
- Amsterdam

104

88

Nguyn Xun
Quang

Nam

Hi Dng

89

Trn Hi Yn

HN

90

Nguyn Th Thu

91

Nguyn Thu H

HN

92

inh Nguyn T
N
Anh

HN

93

V Minh Tr

Nam

94

Ng Diu Thu

95

H Thi Thanh
Tm

Ngh An

96

H Th Thanh
Thy

Ngh An

97

Nguyn Th Thu
Sng

Nng

98

Chu Anh Tun

Nam

HN

99

100

Vng Ton

Th Ho

Nam

Gio vin

Trng THPT HN
- Amsterdam

Cn b ngn
hng

Ngn hng PG
Bank

Nhn vin

Ngn hng PG
Bank

1986

Nhn vin

Ngn hng PG
Bank

1987

Cn b ngn
hng

Ngn hng PG
Bank

1982

Cn b ngn
hng

Ngn hng PG
Bank

Cn b ngn
hng

Ngn hng PG
Bank

Gim c

Cng ty c phn
cng ngh cao Gia
Nguyn

Chuyn vin
chnh

Ngn hng BIDV

1984

Nhn vin vn
phng

Ngn hng PG
Bank

1965

Quay phim

i Truyn hnh
VN

1960

Ph tng gim
c

Tng cng ty c
phn bia ru
nc gii kht HN

Th in

Tng cng ty c
phn bia ru
nc gii kht HN

1987

1963

HN

Bc Ninh

1960

105

Ph lc 3
Bng 26: M hnh thnh vin khng vay vn

Thi gian

S tin
thu c (ng)

Thi gian
gi NH

Li
sut

(thng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 1 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 1

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 2 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 2

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 3 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 3

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

106

Tng s tin

S d

Tng s tin gi

thu c

nm trc

ti NH (cui nm)

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

6,429,000,000

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

7,431,924,000

13,860,924,000

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

16,023,228,144

22,452,228,144

Thi gian

S tin
thu c (ng)

Thi gian
gi NH

Li
sut

(thng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 4 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 4

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 5 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 5

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 6 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 6

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

107

Tng s tin

S d

Tng s tin gi

thu c

nm trc

ti NH (cui nm)

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

25,954,775,734

32,383,775,734

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

37,435,644,749

43,864,644,749

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

50,707,529,330

57,136,529,330

Thi gian

S tin
thu c (ng)

Thi gian
gi NH

Li
sut

(thng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 7 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 7

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 8 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 8

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 9 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 9

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

108

Tng s tin

S d

Tng s tin gi

thu c

nm trc

ti NH (cui nm)

(ng)

(ng)

(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

66,049,827,905

72,478,827,905

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

83,785,525,059

90,214,525,059

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000

104,287,990,968

110,716,990,968

Ph lc 4:
Bng 27: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin ng gp ca cc thnh vin)
Thi gian

S tin thu
c
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 1 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 1

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 2 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 2

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)

Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)

S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay

S tin
gi li NH
(ng)

S d
nm trc
(ng)

Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

46

429,000,000

429,000,000

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

42

429,000,000

493,350,000

922,350,000

109

Thi gian

S tin thu
c
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 3 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 3

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 4 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 4

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)

Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)

S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay

S tin
gi li NH
(ng)

S d
nm trc
(ng)

Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

38

429,000,000 1,060,702,500

1,489,702,500

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

34

429,000,000 1,713,157,875

2,142,157,875

110

Thi gian

S tin thu
c
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 5 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 5

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 6 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 6

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)

Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)

S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay

S tin
gi li NH
(ng)

S d
nm trc
(ng)

Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

30

429,000,000 2,463,481,556

2,892,481,556

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

26

429,000,000 3,326,353,790

3,755,353,790

111

Thi gian

S tin thu
c
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 7 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 7

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 8 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 8

500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)

Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)

S thnh S thnh
vin cha
vin vay
vay

S tin
gi li NH
(ng)

S d
nm trc
(ng)

Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

22

429,000,000 4,318,656,858

4,747,656,858

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

18

429,000,000 5,459,805,387

5,888,805,387

112

Thi gian
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm 9 Thng 7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm 9

S tin thu
c
(ng)
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000
500,000,000

Thi gian Li
gi NH
sut
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0.143
0.130
0.117
0.104
0.091
0.078
0.065
0.052
0.039
0.026
0.013
0.000

Tng s tin
thu c
(ng)

Cho thnh
vin vay
(ng)

S thnh
vin vay

571,500,000
565,000,000
558,500,000
552,000,000
545,500,000
539,000,000
532,500,000
526,000,000
519,500,000
513,000,000
506,500,000
500,000,000
6,429,000,000 6,000,000,000

113

S thnh
vin cha
vay

14

S tin
gi li NH
(ng)

S d
nm trc
(ng)

429,000,000 6,772,126,195

Tng s tin gi
ti NH (cui nm)
(ng)

7,201,126,195

Ph lc 5:
Bng 28: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (Cch tnh li sut hng thng i vi cc
thnh vin vay vn)

Nm
1

Nm
2

S k
(nm)

Hn mc vay
vn (ng)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

1,500,000,000

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

1,500,000,000

S tin gc

D n
(l thuyt) tr
(l thuyt)
hng nm
(ng)
thuyt) (ng)
tng k (ng)
(ng)
120,000,000
1,380,000,000
172,500,000
1,380,000,000
172,500,000
1,207,500,000
172,500,000
1,035,000,000
172,500,000
862,500,000
172,500,000
690,000,000
172,500,000
517,500,000
172,500,000
345,000,000
172,500,000
172,500,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)

S tin
ng gp

240,000,000

Nhu cu
vn vay (l

1,260,000,000

Nm
3

1,500,000,000

360,000,000

1,140,000,000

1,260,000,000
1,080,000,000
900,000,000
720,000,000
540,000,000
360,000,000
180,000,000

189,000,000
162,000,000
135,000,000
108,000,000
81,000,000
54,000,000
27,000,000
756,000,000
9,000,000

190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000
190,000,000

1,140,000,000
950,000,000
760,000,000
570,000,000
380,000,000
190,000,000

171,000,000
142,500,000
114,000,000
85,500,000
57,000,000
28,500,000
598,500,000
8,312,500

204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000
204,000,000

1,020,000,000
816,000,000
612,000,000
408,000,000
204,000,000

153,000,000
122,400,000
91,800,000
61,200,000
30,600,000
459,000,000
7,650,000

Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)

Nm
4

1
2
3
4
5

1,500,000,000

480,000,000

1,020,000,000

Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)

114

207,000,000
181,125,000
155,250,000
129,375,000
103,500,000
77,625,000
51,750,000
25,875,000
931,500,000
9,703,125

180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000
180,000,000

Tng li (ng)
Li/thng(ng)
1
2
3
4
5
6

S tin li
phi tr (ng)

S k
(nm)

Hn mc vay
vn (ng)
1,500,000,000

Nm
5

1
2
3
4

1
2
3

1,500,000,000

Nm
6

S tin gc

D n
(l thuyt) tr
(l thuyt)
hng nm
(ng)
thuyt) (ng)
tng k (ng)
(ng)
600,000,000
900,000,000
225,000,000
900,000,000
225,000,000
675,000,000
225,000,000
450,000,000
225,000,000
225,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng(ng)

S tin
ng gp

720,000,000

Nhu cu
vn vay (l

780,000,000

1
2

Nm
8

1,500,000,000

840,000,000

660,000,000

780,000,000
520,000,000
260,000,000

117,000,000
78,000,000
39,000,000
234,000,000
6,500,000

330,000,000
330,000,000

660,000,000
330,000,000

99,000,000
49,500,000
148,500,000
6,187,500

540,000,000

81,000,000
81,000,000
6,750,000

Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)
1,500,000,000

960,000,000
540,000,000
Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)

115

135,000,000
101,250,000
67,500,000
33,750,000
337,500,000
7,031,250

260,000,000
260,000,000
260,000,000

Tng li (ng)
Li/thng (ng)

Nm
7

S tin li
phi tr (ng)

Ph lc 6:
Bng 29: M hnh thnh vin vay vn (S tin tr li)
Thi
gian

Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)

Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)

Li
sut

S tin
thu c
(ng)

S d
nm trc (ng)

S d
cui nm
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Thng 6
Nm
Thng 7
1
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm
Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
2
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
3
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

116

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

44,149,219
43,664,063
43,178,906
42,693,750
42,208,594
41,723,438
41,238,281
40,753,125
40,267,969
39,782,813
39,297,656
38,812,500
497,770,313

497,770,313

85,099,219
84,164,063
83,228,906
82,293,750
81,358,594
80,423,438
79,488,281
78,553,125
77,617,969
76,682,813
75,747,656
74,812,500
959,470,313

572,435,859

1,531,906,172

Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
4
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
5
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
6
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

Thi
gian

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)

Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000

30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

117

Li
sut
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

S tin
thu c
(ng)

S d
nm trc (ng)

S d
cui nm
(ng)

122,921,094
121,570,313
120,219,531
118,868,750
117,517,969
116,167,188
114,816,406
113,465,625
112,114,844
110,764,063
109,413,281
108,062,500
1,385,901,563

1,761,692,098

3,147,593,660

157,728,594
155,995,313
154,262,031
152,528,750
150,795,469
149,062,188
147,328,906
145,595,625
143,862,344
142,129,063
140,395,781
138,662,500
1,778,346,563

3,619,732,709

5,398,079,272

189,720,781
187,635,938
185,551,094
183,466,250
181,381,406
179,296,563
177,211,719
175,126,875
173,042,031
170,957,188
168,872,344
166,787,500
2,139,049,688

6,207,791,162

8,346,840,850

Vay cui
nm 1
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 2
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 3
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 4
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 5
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 6
(ng)

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
7
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000

28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000

26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
8
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

Thng 1
Thng 2
Thng 3
Thng 4
Thng 5
Nm Thng 6
Thng 7
9
Thng 8
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
Thng 12
Cui nm

38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500
38,812,500

Thi
gian

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000
33,250,000

30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000

30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000
30,600,000

28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000

28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000
28,125,000

26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000

26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000
26,000,000

Vay cui
nm 7
(ng)

Vay cui
nm 8
(ng)

Thi gian
gi NH
(thng)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000

24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000
24,750,000

118

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000
27,000,000

11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Li
sut
0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

0.14
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.00

S tin
thu c
(ng)

S d
nm trc (ng)

S d
cui nm
(ng)

219,295,781
216,885,938
214,476,094
212,066,250
209,656,406
207,246,563
204,836,719
202,426,875
200,017,031
197,607,188
195,197,344
192,787,500
2,472,499,688

9,598,866,977

12,071,366,665

247,448,906
244,729,688
242,010,469
239,291,250
236,572,031
233,852,813
231,133,594
228,414,375
225,695,156
222,975,938
220,256,719
217,537,500
2,789,918,438

13,882,071,665

16,671,990,102

278,161,406
275,104,688
272,047,969
268,991,250
265,934,531
262,877,813
259,821,094
256,764,375
253,707,656
250,650,938
247,594,219
244,537,500
3,136,193,438

19,172,788,617

22,308,982,055

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