Tnh hnh n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam

TS. Mai Thu Hin v Nguyn Th Nh Nguyt* N cng l mt phn quan trng v khng th thiu trong ti chnh mi quc gia. T nhng nc ngho nht chu Phi n nhng quc gia ang pht trin nh Vit Nam, Campuchia hay nhng cng quc giu c vi trnh pht trin cao nh M, Nht, EU th u phi i vay phc v cho cc nhu cu chi tiu v s dng ca chnh ph nhm cc mc ch khc nhau. N cng cn phi c s dng hp l, hiu qu v qun l tt, nu khng th khng hong n cng c th xy ra vi bt c quc gia no ti bt c thi im no v li nhng hu qu nghim trng. Trong khi , n cng ca Vit Nam hin nay ang mc 54,3% GDP vi tc tng trng n hng nm trn 15%. Vi tc ny, n cng ca Vit Nam s vt 100% GDP, mt con s ng bo ng i vi mt nn kinh t nh ang pht trin v ph thuc nhiu vo xut khu sn phm nng nghip th v cng nghip nh. Do , bi vit ny s tp trung phn tch r hn tnh hnh n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam t a ra d bo v tnh hnh n cng ca Vit Nam cng nh mt s xut v chnh sch nhm qun l c hiu qu n cng Vit Nam. 1. Tnh hnh n cng Vit Nam Vit Nam m ca kinh t c 25 nm v t c nhng bc pht trin vt bc. Ch trong vng 10 nm, GDP ca Vit Nam tng ln gp 3 ln, t 32,7 t USD nm 2001 ln 102 t USD nm 2010 (Biu 4). Tuy nhin, Vit Nam vn thuc nhm cc nc ang pht trin, quy m nn kinh t ca Vit Nam vn l nh so vi mt bng chung ca th gii; nn kinh t ph thuc nhiu vo xut khu sn phm nng nghip th v cng nghip nh l ch yu. Do , hin ti v trong tng lai gn, vic tng vay n chnh ph ni ring v n cng ni chung l mt nhu cu tt yu v Vit Nam vn rt cn s h tr v mt ti chnh (tc l vay n v vin tr pht trin chnh thc) t cc t chc n phng, a phng trn th gii pht trin nn kinh t hn na. Quy m n cng Theo The Economist Intelligence Unit, n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2001 mi l 11,5 t USD, tng ng 36% GDP, bnh qun mi ngi gnh s
*

i hc Ngoi thng

n cng xp x 144 USD. Nhng tnh n ht nm 2010, n cng tng ln 55,2 t USD, tng ng 54,3% GDP v hin ti, Vit Nam c xp vo nhm nc c mc n cng trn trung bnh. Nh vy, trong vng 10 nm t 2001 n nay, quy m n cng tng gp gn 5 ln vi tc tng trng n trn 15% mi nm (Biu 1). Nu tip tc vi tc ny th ch trong vng 5 nm na, n nm 2016, n cng ca Vit Nam s vt qu 100% GDP nh hai nc thnh vin EU mi lm vo khng hong n cng gn y l Hy Lp (133,6%), Ailen (129,2%). N cng t trn 100% GDP l mt con s khng nh i vi mt nn kinh t ang pht trin v quy m nh, ph thuc nhiu vo xut khu sn phm nng nghip th v cng nghip nh nh Vit Nam.
Biu 1: Tnh hnh n cng v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam nm 2001-2010
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11.5 13.3 16.1 19.4 27.9 23.2 35.5 47.7 40.9 55.2

N cng (T USD)

N nc ngoi (T USD)

N cng (%GDP)

Ngun: The Economist Intelligence Unit

C cu n cng Theo khon 2 iu 1 Lut Qun l n cng ca Vit Nam, n cng bao gm tt c cc khon n chnh ph, n c chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a phng. C cu n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2006 - 2010 gm n chnh ph chim 78,1%, cn li l n c chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a phng. Trong n chnh ph, n nc ngoi chim 61,9%; n trong nc chim 38,1%. Trong n nc ngoi, ODA chim t trng ln. C th, nm 2009, n cng ca Vit Nam gm n chnh ph chim 79,2%, n c chnh ph bo lnh chim 17,6% v n chnh quyn

a phng chim 3,1%; trong n chnh ph, n nc ngoi chim 60%, trong c 85% l ODA.
Bng 1: C cu n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2006 - 2010

n v 2006 N chnh ph N chnh ph N chnh ph N nc ngoi ca chnh ph N nc ngoi ca chnh ph N nc ngoi ca khu vc cng N nc ngoi ca khu vc cng T USD %GDP % N cng T USD % N chnh ph % GDP 23,7 39,0 85,0 14,6

2007 24,1 33,8 68,0 17,3

2008 31,2 36,5 76,2 18,9

2009 37,8 40,4 79,2 23,9

2010 45,3 44,6 82,1 25,1*

Bnh qun 32,4 38,9 78,1 20

61,6

71,6

60,7

60,0 55,4%**

61,9

26,7

28,3

25,1

29,3

N/A

% N cng

58,2

56,9

52,4

57,5

N/A

Ngun: B Ti Chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 6 Ch thch: *, **: S liu 6 thng u nm 2010

Tnh hnh s dng n cng Thng qua cc chng trnh u t cng, n cng ca Vit Nam c chuyn ti vo cc d n u t nhm ci thin c s h tng, to nn tng cho s pht trin kinh t bn vng. Tuy nhin, tnh hnh s dng n cng Vit Nam khng t hiu qu cao, th hin hai kha cnh sau:

Th nht, tnh trng chm tr trong gii ngn vn: Tnh trng chm tr trong gii ngn ngun vn u t t ngn sch Nh nc v ngun vn tri phiu Chnh ph din ra kh thng xuyn. Theo bo co ca Kho bc Nh nc, ht thng 10/2009, mi gii ngn c 26.586 trong s 64.000 t ng vn tri phiu Chnh ph, bng 47,5% k hoch nm. Tnh trng d n, cng trnh thi cng d dang, chuyn tip, ko di, chm tin vn chm c khc phc. iu ny cng vi s thiu k lut ti chnh trong u t cng v trong hot ng ca cc doanh nghip Nh nc cng nh cc tp on ln, dn n u t dn tri, lng ph, tht thot vn u t tt c cc khu ca qu trnh qun l d n u t. Th hai, hiu qu u t thp, th hin qua ch s ICOR (xem Biu 2): Nm 2009, trong khi tng mc u t ton x hi ln ti 42,2% GDP, th tc tng trng li ch t 5,2%. Ch s ICOR nm 2009 tng ti mc qu cao, trn 8 so vi 6,6 ca nm 2008. iu ny c ngha l, nu nm 2001 Vit Nam cn 5,24 ng vn to ra c 1 ng sn lng, th gi y cn phi u t thm gn 3 ng vn na.
Biu 2: Ch s ICOR ca Vit Nam nm 2001 2009
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001-2003 2004-2006 2007-2008 2009 5.24 5.04 Ch s ICOR 6.15 8

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k

Tnh hnh tr n cng T nm 2006 n nay, tnh hnh tr n cng ca Vit Nam khng n nh v hu nh khng c s gia tng ng k v gi tr, trung bnh hng nm Vit Nam dnh ra trn 3,5% GDP chi tr n v vin tr. T l tr n/tng n cng gim dn qua cc nm, t 9,09% nm 2006 xung cn 6,53% nm 2010. Trong khi , quy m ca cc khon n cng ngy cng tng ln vi tc chng mt vi gn 20%/nm; mt khc, tnh hnh s

dng n cng Vit Nam cn ang tn ti nhiu bt cp nh chm tr trong gii ngn v s km hiu qu trong s dng vn vay vo cc d n u t. iu ny tc ng tiu cc ti kh nng tr n ca Vit Nam trong tng lai.
Biu 3: Tnh hnh tr n v vin tr ca Vit Nam nm 2006 - 2010
60 50 40.9 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 N cng 2010 2.53 3.07 3.02 3.18 3.6 27.9 35.5 47.7 55.2

Tr n v vin tr

Ngun: B Ti chnh

2. Tnh hnh qun l n cng nh gi c hiu qu qun l n cng ca Vit Nam, ta s dng phng php v c s m Ngn hng Th gii (2005) p dng nh gi hiu qu qun l n cng cng nh tnh trng n cng ca cc nc ngho c t l n cao (vit tt l HIPCs). Cc tnh ton v hiu qu qun l n cng c trnh by bng 4. nh gi tnh n nh ca n nc ngoi Vic nh gi tnh n nh v mc bn vng ca n cng c thc hin qua vic nh gi cc ch tiu sau: - T l n nc ngoi/xut khu (NPV/X): o lng gi tr hin ti rng ca n nc ngoi lin quan n kh nng tr n ca quc gia ly t ngun thu xut khu. Ngng an ton ca t l ny l 150%. - T l n nc ngoi/thu ngn sch nh nc (NPV/DBR): o lng gi tr hin ti rng ca n nc ngoi lin quan n kh nng tr n ca quc gia ly t ngun thu ngn sch nh nc. Ngng an ton ca t l ny l 250%. Mt quc gia c xem l an ton nu nh t l NPV/X nh hn 150%; t l NPV/DBR nh hn 250%. Theo mc ngng ca HIPCs, ch

tiu th hai ch c s dng nu nh p ng hai iu kin: T l xut khu/GDP (X/GDP) phi ln hoc bng 30%; t l thu ngn sch nh nc/GDP (DBR/GDP) phi ln hn 15%. Qua tnh ton, ta thy t nm 2004 n nm 2010, t l X/GDP ca Vit Nam lun mc cao, trung bnh l 64,28%; trong khi t l DBR/GDP trung bnh mc 31,75%, thp nht l 22,35% vo nm 2009. Do , Vit Nam p ng c hai iu kin X/GDP 30% v DBR/GDP 15%. Trong khi , t l NPV/X 150% (NPV/X thp, lun di mc 60%) v NPV/DBR 250% (NPV/DBR lun di 150%). Nh vy, n cng ca Vit Nam p ng c yu cu v n bn vng v c nh gi l vn ngng an ton m Ngn hng Th gii a ra. Sc mnh th ch v cht lng chnh sch qun l n nc ngoi Trong vi nm gn y, mt cch tip cn mi m Ngn hng Th gii a vo nh gi cht lng qun l n cng l da vo cht lng chnh sch v th ch. Cc quc gia c chnh sch v th ch tt th c th chng c mc n cao hn so vi mc n nh n c bn. Cch tip cn ny a ra gi tr mc ngng da vo t l n truyn thng lm c s nh gi th ch v chnh sch ca quc gia. Da vo gi tr ngng, Ngn hng Th gii phn loi 3 mc thc hin chnh sch: km, va v mnh (Bng 2). Trong qu trnh nh gi chnh sch, qun l c xem l c trng s ln nht.
Bng 2: Mc ngng ph thuc vo chnh sch v th ch theo tiu chun ca HIPCs Mc ngng (%) NPV/GDP NPV/X NPV/DBR nh gi sc mnh th ch v cht lng chnh sch Km Va Mnh CPIA 3 3 < CPIA < 3.9 CPIA 3.9 30% 45% 60% 100% 200% 300% 200% 275% 350% Ngun: Ngn hng th gii (2005) Ch thch: NPV/GDP: N nc ngoi/GDP

Qua tnh ton ta thy, t nm 2004 n nm 2010, ba ch s n cng ca Vit Nam l NPV/GDP 30% trong khi NPV/X < 60%, NPV/DBR < 150%. iu ny cho thy th ch v chnh sch qun l n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam xp vo ch s CPIA3, tc l mc km. nh gi n trong nc

N trong nc c nh gi qua hai ch s l N trong nc/GDP v N trong nc/DBR. Vi t l N trong nc/GDP nhn chung lun mc thp hn nhng kh st vi ngng 20%-25%, tng t, N trong nc/DBR lun mc thp hn nhng kh st vi ngng 92% (Bng 3), do , n trong nc ca Vit Nam c nh gi l n nh.
Bng 3: Ngng n trong nc theo tiu chun ca HIPCs T l N trong nc/GDP N trong nc/DBR Ngun: Ngn hng th gii (2005 Mc ngng 20% 25% 92% 167%

Tnh cng bng v gnh nng n gia th h hin ti v th h tng lai Nh phn tch trn, thng qua ch s ICOR, ta thy rng hiu qu s dng n cng v hiu qu ca cc d n u t cn rt thp. Vit Nam vay n u t v pht trin kinh t - x hi, song hiu qu u t thp khin ngun thu hi tr n trong tng lai t cc d n ny thp v b hn ch. Cc khon vay v chi tiu hin ti ca chnh ph khng to nn ngun thu hiu qu trong tng lai; chng lm tng sc p ln bi chi mi. Hu qu l, th h tng lai s phi chu gnh nng n cao hn th h hin ti. Tm li, tnh cng bng lin th h v gnh nng n Vit Nam c nh gi l thp.
Bng 4: Mt s ch s o lng hiu qu qun l n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2004 2010 theo mc ngng ca HIPCs (%)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

55,08 51,03 50,91 45,96 NPV/X NPV/DBR 116,42 92,48 89,96 81,29 NPV/GDP 32,32 31,28 33,07 30,72 N trong 10,31 12,54 12,66 19,14 nc/GDP 37,12 37,07 34,44 50,65 N trong

35,44 67,56 24,12 21,09 59,07

Trung bnh 2009 2010 nm 2004 2010 51,41 40,49 47,19 137,74 101,28 98,10 30,79 28,43 30,10 19,67 88,01 25,67 91,42 17,30 56,82

nc/DBR X/GDP DBR/GDP

58,69 61,28 64,95 66,84 68,06 27,77 33,82 36,76 37,79 35,71

59,88 22,35

70,23 28,08

64,28 31,75

Ngun: tng hp t B Ti chnh, B Thng mi v t tnh ton

Nh vy, p dng phng php nh gi hiu qu qun l n cng ca Ngn hng Th gii, c th khng nh rng n cng ca Vit Nam vn nm trong gii hn an ton theo mc ngng ca HIPCs, song nu xt tnh cng bng lin th h v gnh nng n cng th qun l n cng ca Vit Nam cn km hiu qu, cn phi c ci thin tt hn na trong thi gian ti. 3. D bo tnh hnh n cng Vit Nam trong thi gian ti Qua phn tch tnh hnh kinh t cng nh tnh hnh n cng v qun l n cng ca Vit Nam trn, c th thy rng kinh t Vit Nam hin ang c mt s c im ging vi PIIGS (cc nc chu u c t l n cao, bao gm Hy Lp, Ailen, B o Nha, Ty Ban Nha, ) khi lm vo khng hong n cng, l: - Tng trng GDP gim k t sau khng hong ti chnh M nm 2007 n nay (Biu 4) - Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ln, tng mnh t nm 2001 n nm 2010 - Lm pht lun c xu hng tng mnh, lun cao trn 8% k t nm 2006 n nay. c bit, nm 2009 l thi k kh khn ca Vit Nam khi t l lm pht t mc phi m 24,4% (Biu 4). n nm 2010, di mt lot cc chnh sch tht cht tin t, t l lm pht c a v mc 11,8%, tuy nhin t l ny vn cn mc cao. Nm 2011, lm pht li tip tc c xu hng tng mnh tr li; kim ch t l lm pht v mc 15% l mc tiu hng u ca Vit Nam trong nm 2011. - T l tit kim rng c iu chnh (adjusted net savings) thp ch 12-14% GNI mi nm, thp hn 5% so vi trung bnh ca chu (khng k cc nc Trung ng. Ngoi nhng c im ging vi PIIGS v kinh t, th n cng ca Vit Nam cn c hai vn khc cn c bit quan tm, l: - C cu n nc ngoi trong tng n cng ca Vit Nam chim t trng ln v ang tng nhanh (Bng 3), trong khi hiu qu u t ca cc d n s dng vn t cc khon n li thp.

- Vit Nam s dn dn b gim i cc khon vay u i do tr thnh nc c thu nhp trung bnh; thay vo l cc khon vay thng mi vi li sut cao hn, thi gian ngn hn. iu ny i hi vic s dng vn phi hiu qu nhiu hn na, nu khng, p lc tr n ngy cng ln hn v tc ng ngay n ngng an ton n cng.
Biu 4: Tng trng GDP thc v t l lm pht ca Vit Nam nm 2001 - 2010
30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Tng trng GDP thc 2006 2007 2008 2009 T l lm pht 2010

Ngun: The Economist Intelligence Unit

T nhng so snh trn, ta thy rng Vit Nam c th s lm vo khng hong n cng ging nh cc nc EU nu khng c nhng thay i cn thit v tch cc v tnh hnh kinh t v tnh hnh qun l n cng; nht l sau suy thoi kinh t ton cu. Do , di y nhm tc gi xin a ra mt s xut nhm qun l c hiu qu n cng Vit Nam. 4. Mt s xut nhm qun l c hiu qu n cng Vit Nam Pht trin ni lc nn kinh t Pht trin ni lc nn kinh t cn tp trung vo vn gia tng hm lng gi tr gia tng trong xut khu bng cch: Gim nhp khu nguyn ph liu cho sn xut hng xut khu thng qua vic u t pht trin cc ngnh cng nghip h tr; tng hm lng cng ngh cao trong sn xut xut khu c nhiu sn phm tinh v t sn phm th hn; y mnh hn na hot ng xc tin thng mi, nng cao nhn bit v thc hnh v vn thng hiu cho cc sn phm ca Vit Nam trn th trng th gii. Xy dng mi trng ti chnh hiu qu - Cng khai, minh bch v ti chnh

y l mt nguyn tc cn bn hng u v ph bin trn th gii trong qun tr cng ni chung, qun tr ti kha v c bit l trong qun tr n cng. Theo hng dn qun l n cng ca IMF (2003) cng nh Cm nang minh bch ti kha (2007), cn c bit nhn mnh mt s yu cu c bn nh sau: Th nht, xc nh r vai tr v trch nhim ti kha ca cc c quan ca Chnh ph. y l yu cu thit yu m bo trch nhim gii trnh trong vic hoch nh v thc thi chnh sch ti kha. Th hai, khu vc chnh ph phi c tch bch r rng ra khi phn cn li ca khu vc cng v phn cn li ca nn kinh t; chnh sch v vai tr qun l ca khu vc cng phi r rng v c cng b cng khai. Th ba, v qun l n, php lut qun l n nn giao trch nhim r rng cho mt c nhn, thng l B trng Ti chnh trong vic: La chn cc cng c cn thit cho vic vay n; xy dng chin lc qun l n; xc nh gii hn n (nu lut khng quy nh r) - thng l da vo chin lc n bn vng; thit lp v kim sot c quan/t chc c trch nhim qun l n (thuc quyn hoc nm ngoi) v thit lp quy ch qun l n. Th t, lut phi quy nh c th tt c cc khon chnh ph bo lnh. Lut cng phi xc nh r vai tr ca Ngn hng Trung ng sao cho vic pht hnh qu chng khon khng b ln vi cc bin php nghip v thuc chnh sch tin t. Tt c cc khon vay phi c ghi c ti mt ti khon ngn hng di s kim tra ca B Ti chnh, v ngha v n v cc iu khon vay n phi c cng b y cho cng chng. Minh bch ti kha i hi c quan lp php phi xc nh r cc yu cu trong bo co hng nm v d n v dng chu chuyn n, k c s liu v bo lnh n ca chnh ph trnh c quan lp php v cng khai cho cng chng. Ngoi ra, cn m bo rng thng tin v n cng phi bao qut c qu kh, hin ti v d tnh cho tng lai. iu ny ht sc cn thit v thng tin cng khai v n cn nhm tng cng kh nng can thip v phng nga tnh hung xu xy ra. - Ci cch hnh chnh Vic ci cch hnh chnh nh nc cn c thc hin trn tt c cc ni dung: Th ch; t chc b my; xy dng v nng cao cht lng i ng cn b, cng chc,... Trong , cn tng cng c ch gim st ca nhn dn i vi hot ng ca c quan nh nc, lm r thm quyn, trch nhim ca c quan hnh chnh trong gii quyt khiu ni ca nhn dn; thc hin tt vic tip nhn kin, phn hi ca ngi dn. Bn cnh , th tc hnh chnh cn phi c n gin ha v thng tin y trn cng thng tin in t ca b, a phng to thun li ti a cho ngi dn, c quan, t chc nhm tit kim chi ph, ng thi nng cao trch nhim ca

cn b, cng chc trong ci cch th tc hnh chnh. c bit, cn ch trng nng cao cht lng i ng cn b, cng chc, trong c yu t ht sc quan trng l ci cch ch , chnh sch tin lng nhm to ng lc thc s cn b, cng chc lm vic, nng cao cht lng dch v hnh chnh v cht lng dch v s nghip cng. - Nng cao hiu qu hot ng kim ton v hot ng ngn hng, c th: + V hot ng kim ton: Tin hnh kim ton c lp cc hot ng qun l n hng nm. + V hot ng ngn hng: c bit tp trung vo nng cao cht lng cn b tn dng. Cn phi hng dn t chc tp hun, bi dng kin thc v chuyn mn nghip v, ch trng nghip v marketing, k nng bn hng, thng tho hp ng v vn ho kinh doanh. ng thi phi thc hin tiu chun ho cn b tn dng v kin quyt loi b, thuyn chuyn sang b phn khc nhng cn b yu v t cch o c, thiu trung thc, nhng cn b tn dng thiu kin thc chuyn mn nghip v. Thay i c cu n cng Vit Nam thc s thay i c cu n cng theo hng tng t trng n trong nc nhiu hn na. thay i c cu n cng, Chnh ph Vit Nam nn pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph ghi bng ni t nhiu hn. nng cao cht lng cc t u thu mua tri phiu chnh ph, chnh ph nn a ra mt mc li sut ph hp hn vi li sut th trng v yu cu ca nh u t. Kim sot n cng mc an ton kim sot n cng mc an ton, cn phi xc nh c u l mc an ton (v d: cn phi xc nh cc t l n cng/GDP v n nc ngoi/GDP). Tuy nhin, bn cnh , cn ch phn tch bn cht ca n cng. l: n chnh ph l vay n trong nc hay vay n nc ngoi; tc tng trng ca nn kinh t, hay lng d tr quc gia... Thc t xy ra trn th gii cho thy nhng nc ri vo khng hong ti chnh u c t l n trn GDP kh thp. V d: Argentina nm 2001, t l ch mc 45%; Ukraine (2007) ch 13%; Thi Lan (1996) ch c 15%; Venezuela (1981) ch c 15%; Rumania (2007) ch c 20%... S dng hiu qu n cng s dng hiu qu n cng, cn phi ch trng vo cc vn sau: - Chi tiu cng phi minh bch, hp l. Vay n cng phi c chi cho u t pht trin thay v chi tiu dng chnh ph. Ch nhng d n thc s em li hiu qu kinh t mi c xt duyt v u t thc hin. Tng cng thanh tra, gim st qu trnh thc hin d n u t; trnh tnh trng tham nhng, quan liu.

- u thu cc d n mt cch cng khai, minh bch nhm chn la c nhng nh thu c nng lc nht. doanh nghip ngoi quc doanh chu trch nhim thu cc d n u t nhiu hn, thay cho cc doanh nghip nh nc. - Tp hun v nng cao trnh qun l cng nh trnh nghip v cho cc cn b trong cc doanh nghip nh nc.

Ti liu tham kho: 1. Benedict Bingham (IMF, 2010), Vietnam Fiscal Strategy and Public Debt. 2. B Ti chnh (2011), Bn tin n nc ngoi s 6. 3. Dng Th Bnh Minh v S nh Thnh (2009), Phng php tip cn nh gi hiu qu qun l n cng, Tp ch Kinh t pht trin s thng 9/2009. 4. Earth Trends (2010), Vietnam Economic Indicator 2010 5. Lut Ngn sch Nh nc. 6. Lut Qun l n cng. 7. Sandra Svaljek (1996-1999), Public debt boundaries: a review of theories and methods of the assessment of public debt sustainability, www.hrcak.srce.hr. 8. The Economists Intelligence Units global public debt clock, www.buttonwood.economist.com 9. Tng cc Thng k, www.gso.gov.vn 10. World Bank (2005), Policy Research Working Paper No. 3674