XSTK On Cao Hoc-2012

n thi TS cao hc mn Xc sut v thng k PGS-TS L Anh V
Tm tt l thuyt v bi tp 1

N THI TUYN SINH SAU I HC
Mn XC SUT THNG K

BI 1. N TP I S T HP
1. Quy tc cng
Gi s mt cng vic V c th thc hin theo hai phng n V
1
hoc V
2
.
S cch thc hin V
1
l m
1
, s cch thc hin V
2
l m
2
.
Mi cch thc hin V
1
khng trng vi bt k cch thc hin V
2
no.
Khi s cch thc hin cng vic V l n = m
1
+ m
2
.
V d 1. Nh An c 2 xe p, 3 xe my. Khi n trng An i xe p hoc xe my.
Hi An c bao nhiu cch i n trng?
V d 2. Mt b bi c 52 l vi 4 cht khc nhau. Hi c bao nhiu cch ly ra mt
l c hoc l t? Trong v d ny c th s dng quy tc cng (bng cch ly s cch
chn mt l t cng vi s cch chn mt l c) c khng? Ti sao?
2. Quy tc nhn
Gi s mt cng vic V bao gm hai cng on V
1
v V
2
.
S cch thc hin V
1
l m
1
, s cch thc hin V
2
l m
2
.
Mi cch thc hin V
1
u c m
2
cch thc hin V
2
.
Khi s cch thc hin cng vic V l n = m
1
. m
2 .
V d 3. T nh Bnh ( Q.3, TP. HCM) v qu ( Long Xuyn, An Giang) phi i qua
bn xe Min Ty. T nh ra bn xe, Bnh i xe but; t bn xe v qu, Bnh i xe t
khch. Bit rng c 3 xe but i n bn xe Min Ty v t c 5 xe khch v qu.
Hi Bnh c bao nhiu cch v qu?
3. T hp
Mi tp con gm k phn t khc nhau ly ra t tp hp c n phn t c gi l mt
t hp chp k ca n phn t cho.
V d 4. C 5 i bng thi u vng loi. Mi trn u gia cc i (gm 2 phn t
ly t 5 phn t) l mt t hp chp 2 ca 5 phn t cho.
Cng thc tnh s t hp
K hiu s cc t hp chp k ca n phn t l C
n
k
, ta c cng thc
)! ( !
!
k n k
n
k
n
C

=

V d 5. ( Tip v d 4) S cc trn u vng loi do 5 i thc hin l s cc t
hp chp 2 ca 5 phn t:
2
5!
5
2! 3!
10 C = =
V d 6. Trong mt ci hp c 10 vin phn trng v 6 vin phn mu. Ly ra 5 vin
phn. Hi c bao nhiu cch ly c:
a) cc vin phn bt k? b) 2 vin phn mu?
c) t nht 4 vin phn mu? d) t nht 1 vin phn mu?
V d 7. T b bi 52 l, ngi ta ly ra 8 l. Hi c bao nhiu cch ly c:
a) cc l bi bt k? b) 3 l c? c) 2 l c v 3 l pc?
d) t nht 3 l t? e) t nht 1 l t?


BI TP
1. Mt l hng c 100 sn phm, trong c 5 ph phm. Chn ra 12 sn phm
kim tra. Hi c bao nhiu cch chn c
a) cc sn phm bt k? b) khng qu 2 ph phm?
c) t nht 1 ph phm?
2. Ngi ta ly ra 3 vin bi t mt ci hp ng 6 vin vi , 4 vin bi xanh, 5 vin bi
vng. Hi c bao nhiu cch ly ra
a) cc vin bi ty? b) 2 vin bi , 1 vin bi xanh?
c) cc vin bi c mu khc nhau? d) mt vin mu ?
e) nhiu nht mt vin mu ? f) t nht mt vin mu ?
3. Chn 8 l bi t b bi c 52 l. Hi c bao nhiu cch ly c
a) 3 l mu ? b) 2 l c? c) 1 l t v 2 l K?
d) 2 l r v 4 l mu en? e) khng qu mt l mu ?
f) t nht mt l mu en? g) t nht 2 l t?

BI 2. PHP TH - BIN C

1. Khi nim
Hnh ng m ta thc hin l php th.
Kt qu ca php th c gi l bin c.
V d 1. a) Tung mt vin phn ln cao, vin phn ri xung.
b) Mt sinh vin i thi mn Ton v u mn ny, nhng i thi ngoi ng li b rt.
c) Bc mt t lch trong quyn lc lch nm 2011, c t c ghi ngy 31-6-2011.
Hy ch ra php th v bin c trong tng v d trn.
2. Phn loi bin c
- Bin c lun lun xy ra trong php th c gi l bin c chc chn, k hiu l O.
- Bin c khng bao gi xy ra trong php th c gi l bin c khng th, k hiu
l
|
.
- Bin c c th xy ra , hoc khng xy ra trong php th c gi l bin c ngu
nhin, k hiu l A, B, ..., C
1
, C
2
, ...
V d 2. Cc bin c cho trong v d 1a, b, c l cc bin c g?
3. Cc php ton i vi bin c
a) Tng cc bin c
Cho hai bin c A v B. Tng ca chng l mt bin c C sao cho C xy ra khi A
hoc B xy ra, k hiu C = A + B.
b) Tch cc bin c
Cho hai bin c A v B. Tch ca chng l mt bin c C sao cho C xy ra khi A v B
xy ra, k hiu C = A.B


c) Bin c i lp
Hai bin c A v B c gi l i lp nhau nu bin c A xy ra th bin c B khng
xy ra v nu A khng xy ra th B phi xy ra, k hiu
A B =
.
V d 3. Mt sinh vin thi hai mn Ton, L. Gi T l bin c sinh vin u Ton,
L l bin c sinh vin u L. Hy vit cc bin c sau thnh php ton ca T v L
a) Sinh vin u t nht 1 mn. b) Sinh vin u c hai mn.
c) Sinh vin b rt mn Ton. d) Sinh vin b rt c hai mn.
e) Sinh vin ch u mn L. f) Sinh vin ch u mt mn.
g) Sinh vin u khng qu mt mn.
4. Cc bin c xung khc nhau
Hai bin c c gi l xung khc nhau nu chng khng cng xy ra.
5. Cc bin c c lp
Hai bin c c gi l c lp nu bin c ny xy ra khng nh hng n bin c
kia v ngc li.
6. H bin c y
H n bin c A
1
, A
2
,..., A
n
c gi l h y nu lun c mt v ch mt
bin c ca h xy ra trong php th.
V d 4. Tung mt sc sc ( hnh lp phng gm 6 mt c nh s t 1 n 6). Gi
A
k
l bin c xut hin mt k. Khi
a) Hai bin c A
1
, A
2
l cc bin c g?
b) H 6 bin c A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
6
l h g?
V d 5. (Xem li v d 3) Hai bin c T v L l cc bin c nh th no?

BI TP
1. Hai ngi cng bn, mi ngi bn mt vin n vo tm bia. Gi
i
N l bin c
ngi th i bn trng bia (i = 1, 2). Hy biu din cc bin c sau qua N
1
, N
2
.
a) Ch c ngi th nht bn trng bia. b) C ng mt ngi bn trng.
c) C hai ngi u bn trng. d) Khng c ai bn trng.
e) C t nht mt ngi bn trng. f) C khng qu mt ngi bn trng.
2. Ngi ta chn ngu nhin 3 linh kin t mt l hng. Gi
k
L l bin c linh kin
th k t tiu chun (k = 1, 2, 3). Hy biu din cc bin c sau qua L
1
, L
2
, L
3
:
a) C ba linh kin u t tiu chun.
b) Ch c mt linh kin t tiu chun.
c) C ng hai linh kin t tiu chun.
d) Khng c kinh kin no t tiu chun.
e) C nhiu nht mt linh kin t tiu chun.
f) C khng qu hai linh kin t tiu chun.
h) C t nht mt linh kin t tiu chun.



BI 3. NH NGHA XC SUT
1. nh ngha
Cho T l mt php th v A l bin c c th xy ra trong php th .
Gi s T c n trng hp c th xy ra, trong s c m trng hp lm bin c A
xut hin. Khi t s
n
m
c gi l xc sut ca bin c A, k hiu l P(A). Vy

n
m
A P = ) (

ngha ca xc sut: Xc sut ca mt bin c l mt s c trng cho kh nng
xut hin bin c trong php th, xc sut cng ln, kh nng xut hin bin c
cng nhiu.
Phng php tnh xc sut bng nh ngha:
tnh xc sut ca mt bin c, ta cn thc hin cc bc sau y
- Gi php th, tnh s trng hp c th xy ra.
- Gi tn bin c cn tm xc sut, tnh s trng hp lm xut hin bin c
trong php th.
- p dng cng thc nh ngha tm xc sut ca bin c cho.
V d 1. Mt chi on c 30 sinh vin nam v 15 sinh vin n. Cn chn ra 8 sinh
vin tham gia chin dch ma h xanh. Tm xc sut trong nhm chn ra c 3 sinh vin
n.
V d 2. cng thi mn Trit c 70 cu hi. Mt sinh vin ch n 40 cu. Cho bit
thi t lun gm 3 cu thuc cng v nu sinh vin tr li ng t nht hai cu
th u. Tm xc sut sinh vin u mn Trit.
V d 3. Tung 2 ng tin, mi ng c mt mt sp v mt mt nga. Tm xc sut
c
a) 2 mt u sp. b) 2 mt u nga. c) 1 mt sp v 1 mt nga.
Trong ba bin c trn, bin c no thng xy ra nhiu hn?
2. Cc tnh cht ca xc sut
1) Vi mi bin c A ta lun c 1 ) ( 0 s s A P
2)
0 ) ( = | P
; 1 ) ( = O P
3) ) ( 1 ) ( A P A P =
V d 4. Ly ra 8 l bi t b bi c 52 l. Tm xc sut ly c
a) 3 l mu . b) t nht 1 l mu .
BI TP
1. Lp hc mn xc sut c 64 sinh vin, trong c 15 sinh vin n. Chn ngu
nhin mt nhm gm 10 sinh vin. Tm xc sut trong nhm chn ra c
a) 4 sinh vin n. b) khng qu 2 sinh vin n. c) t nht 1 sinh vin n.
2. T mt ci hp c 20 vin phn, trong c 5 vin phn mu, ngi ta ly ra 6 vin
phn. Tm xc sut ly c
a) 2 vin phn mu. b) khng qu mt vin phn mu.
c) t nht mt vin phn mu.


BI 4. CC CNG THC TNH XC SUT
1. CNG THC CNG
Cho hai bin c A, B v C = A + B. Cn tnh xc sut ca C theo xc sut ca A v B.
a) Trng hp hai bin c A v B xung khc
P(C) = P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) (1)
b) Trng hp hai bin c A v B khng xung khc
P(C) = P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) (2)
V d 1. C 10 ci bt, trong c 4 bt , s cn li l bt xanh. Ly ngu nhin 3
ci bt.Tm xc sut ly c
a) 1 bt . b) 2 bt . c) 3 bt xanh.
d) khng qu 1 bt . d) t nht 1 bt .
V d 2. Mt lp hc c 50 sinh vin, trong c 35 ngi u mn Ton, 28 ngi
u mn L. S sinh vin ca lp u c hai mn ny l 20. Gi ngu nhin mt sinh
vin ca lp. Tm xc sut sinh vin u t nht mt mn.
V d 3. Trong hp phn c 10 vin phn mu v 40 vin phn trng. Ly ngu nhin
5 vin phn. Tm xc sut ly c
a) 1 vin phn mu. b) ton phn trng.
c) nhiu nht 1 vin phn mu. d) t nht 1 vin phn mu.
2. CNG THC NHN
Cho hai bin c A, B v C = AB. Cn tnh xc sut ca C theo xc sut ca A v B.
a) Trng hp hai bin c A v B c lp
P(C) = P(AB) = P(A) P(B) (3)
b) Trng hp hai bin c A v B khng c lp
P(C) = P(A) P(B/A)
hoc (4)
P(C) = P(B) P(A/B)
V d 4. Mt sinh vin phi thi Ton v L. Cho bit xc sut u hai mn ln lt
l 0,9; 0,8. Hy tnh cc xc sut sau y:
a) Sinh vin rt Ton; rt L. b) Sinh vin ch u Ton.
c) Sinh vin u c hai mn. d) Sinh vin ch u mt mn.
e) Sinh vin u khng qu mt mn. f) Sinh vin u t nht mt mn.
V d 5. Mt x th bn hai vin n, xc sut bn trng tng vin ln lt l 0,6 ; 0,7.
Tm xc sut anh ta bn trng
a) c hai vin. b) ch vin th nht. c) ch mt vin.
d) t nht mt vin. e) khng qu mt vin.
V d 6. Mt cu b c 10 ci bt ch,trong c 3 bt ch mu. Cu b cho anh mnh
2 ci bt, sau cho ch mnh 1 ci bt. Tm xc sut cu b cn li
a) ton bt ch en. b) 2 bt ch mu. c) 1 bt ch mu.
d) t nht 1 bt ch mu. e) khng qu 1 bt ch mu.


V d 7. Hai bn An v Bnh r nhau mua v s ti mt quy c 50 v, trong c 4
v s trng thng. An mua trc 2 v, sau Bnh chn mua 1 v. Tm xc sut hai
bn mua c:
a) 3 v trng. b) 1 v trng. c) t nht 1 v trng.
3. CNG THC XC SUT Y
Cho h y cc bin c A
1
, A
2
, ... , A
n
v B l bin c xy ra khi mt trong
cc bin c ca h xy ra. Ta cn tm xc sut ca B theo xc sut ca cc bin c
trong h y .
P(B) = P(A
1
)P(B/A
1
) + P(A
2
)P(B/A
2
) + ... + P(A
n
)P(B/A
n
) (5)
V d 8. Cho 3 ci hp ng bt hnh dng ging nhau. Hp th nht c 2 bt , 8
bt xanh. Hp th hai c 4 bt , 6 bt xanh. Hp th ba c 4 bt , 8 bt xanh. Ly
ngu nhin mt hp, t ly ngu nhin 3 ci bt. Tm xc sut ly c
a) 3 bt . b) 1 bt . c) t nht mt bt .
V d 9. C hai l hng ng cc thit b in t. L th nht c 4 ph phm v 46 sn
phm tt. L th hai c 3 ph phm v 45 sn phm tt. T l th nht ly ra 2 sn
phm b sang l th hai. Sau t l th hai ly ra 5 sn phm. Tm xc sut ly c
a) 5 sn phm tt. b) t nht mt ph phm.

4. CNG THC XC SUT GI THIT
Cho h y cc bin c A
1
, A
2
, ... , A
n
v B l bin c xy ra khi mt trong
cc bin c ca h xy ra. Gi s bin c B xy ra. Ta cn tm xc sut B xy
ra l do gi thit A
k
no thuc h y .
( ) ( / )
( )
( / )
k
k k
P A P B A
P B
P A B
( k = 1, 2, ... , n) (6)
V d 10. Mt nh my c ba phn xng cng sn xut mt loi sn phm. Phn
xng th nht sn xut 25%, phn xng th hai sn xut 35%, cn phn xng th
ba sn sut 40% tng s sn phm ca c nh my. T l ph phm ca tng phn
xng ln lt l 1%; 3%; 2%. Ly ngu nhin mt sn phm trong kho hng ca nh
my.
a) Tm xc sut ly c ph phm.
b) Gi s ly c ph phm, tm xc sut ph phm do phn xng th nht
sn xut.
c) Nu ly c sn phm tt, theo bn, kh nng sn phm do phn xng no
sn sut l nhiu nht?
V d 11. Cho 3 ci hp ng bt hnh dng ging nhau. Hp th nht c 2 bt , 8
bt xanh. Hp th hai c 4 bt , 6 bt xanh. Hp th ba c 4 bt , 8 bt xanh. Ly
ngu nhin mt hp, t ly ngu nhin 2 ci bt.
a) Tm xc sut ly c hai bt khc mu.
b) Gi s ly c hai bt khc mu. Tm xc sut l cc bt ca hp th ba.


PHNG PHP TNH XC SUT BNG CNG THC
tnh xc sut ca mt bin c bng cng thc, ta cn thc hin cc bc sau y
- Gi tn bin c cn tm xc sut, phn tch n thnh php ton i vi cc bin c
khc n gin hn.
- Phn tch mi quan h gia cc bin c tham gia vo php ton: xung khc hay
khng, c lp hay khng, c to thnh h y hay khng...
- Chn cng thc tnh xc sut ca bin c ban u theo xc sut ca cc bin c
n gin.
- Tnh xc sut ca cc bin c tham gia vo php ton, nu cn.
- Tnh xc sut ca bin c ban u.
5. CNG THC BERNOULLI
Gi s: - php th T lp li n ln
- bin c A c th xut hin trong mi ln th vi xc sut khng i P(A) = p.
Khi xc sut bin c A xut hin k ln trong n ln th l
( , ) (1 )
k k n k
n n
P k A C p p (k = 0, 1, ... , n) (7)
V d 12. Mt sinh vin thi 5 mn vi xc sut u tng mn l 0,7. Tm xc sut sinh
vin
a) u 3 mn. b) khng u mn no. c) u t nht mt mn.
V d 13. Mt x th bn 6 vin n. Cho bit xc sut bn trng mc tiu ca mi
ln bn u l 0,9. Tm xc sut anh ta bn trng
a) 4 vin. b) khng qu 2 vin. c) t nht mt vin n.
BI TP
1. C ba ngi, mi ngi bn mt vin n vo bia vi xc sut bn trng ln lt l
0,6 ; 0,7 ; 0,8. Tm cc xc sut sau y:
a) Ch c ngi th hai bn trng. b) C ng mt ngi bn trng.
c) Ch c ngi th ba bn trt. d) C ng hai ngi bn trng.
e) C ba ngi u bn trng. f) Khng c ai bn trng.
g) C t nht mt ngi bn trng. h) C khng qu hai ngi bn trng.
2. C ba ci hp ng bt. Hp th nht c 5 bt , 10 bt xanh. Hp th hai c 3 bt
, 7 bt xanh. Hp th ba c 3 bt , 4 bt xanh. T hp th nht ly ra 1 ci bt, t
hp th hai ly ra 2 ci, cng b vo hp th ba.
a) Tm xc sut trong hp th ba s bt nhiu hn s bt xanh.
b) T hp th ba ly ra 2 ci bt. Tm xc sut ly c 2 bt cng mu.
3. C hai l hng, l th nht c 10 sn phm loi A, 2 sn phm loi B ; l th hai c
16 sn phm loi A, 4 sn phm loi B. T mi l ta ly ngu nhin ra mt sn phm.
Sau , trong hai sn phm thu c li ly ra mt sn phm. Tm xc sut sn
phm ly ra sau cng l sn phm loi A.
4. Hai my cng sn xut ra mt loi chi tit. Nng sut ca my th hai gp i my
th nht. T l chi tit t tiu chun ca my th nht l 65%, ca my th hai l
80%. Ly ngu nhin mt chi tit t l hng do hai my sn xut.


a) Tm xc sut ly c chi tit t tiu chun.
b) Nu chi tit l ph phm, tm xc sut chi tit do my th hai sn xut.
5. mt vng c 100 ngi th c 30 ngi ht thuc l. Bit t l ngi b vim hng
trong s ngi ht thuc l 60%, cn trong s ngi khng ht l 10%.
a) Khm ngu nhin mt ngi. Tm xc sut ngi b vim hng.
b) Gi s ngi c khm b vim hng. Tm xc sut anh ta ht thuc.
c) Nu ngi khng b vim hng th xc sut anh ta ht thuc bng bao nhiu ?
6. C bn nhm x th tp bn. Nhm th nht c 6 ngi, nhm th hai c 7 ngi,
nhm th ba c 8 ngi v nhm th t c 4 ngi. Xc sut bng trng ch ca mi
ngi trong bn nhm ln lt l 0,8 ; 0,7 ; 0,6 ; 0,5. Chn ngu nhin mt x th.
a) Tm xc sut anh ta bn trng ch.
b) Gi s x th ny bn trt. Hy xc nh xem ngi c kh nng
trong nhm no nht ?
7. Gi s xc sut sinh con trai l 0,51. Mt gia nh c 4 ngi con. Tm xc sut
gia nh c
a) hai con trai. b) khng qu mt con trai.
8. Mt x th c xc sut bn trng ch mi ln bn l 0,7. Anh ta bn 5 ln, mi
ln 1 vin n.
a) Tm xc sut c 3 vin trng ch.
b) Tm xc sut c khng qu 3 vin trng.
9. Mt bi thi trc nghim nhiu la chn gm 12 cu hi. Mi cu c 5 phng n tr
li, trong ch c 1 phng n ng. Cho bit mi cu tr li ng c 4 im, mi
cu tr li sai b tr i 1 im. Mt sinh vin khng hc bi nn lm bi bng cch
chn ngu nhin 1 phng n tr li trong tng cu hi. Tm xc sut anh ta
a) c 13 im. b) b im m.
10. Mt tn hiu v tuyn c pht i 4 ln. Xc sut ni thu nhn c tn hiu
mi ln pht u l 0,4.
a) Tm xc sut ni thu nhn c t nht mt tn hiu.
b) Mun xc sut thu c t nht mt tn hiu khng b hn 99% th phi pht
ti thiu bao nhiu ln?
BI 5. CC CNG THC TNH GN NG XC SUT
Trong cng thc Bernoulli, nu n v k tng i ln th vic s dng cng thc
gp kh khn nn ngi ta s dng cc cng thc gn ng thay th. Mun sai s
chp nhn c th ty theo gi tr ca n v k, cng nh ty vo xc sut ca bin c
trong mi ln th m ta s dng cng thc gn ng cho thch hp.

1. Trng hp n kh ln, P(A) = p khng qu ln, khng qu b
Khi ta s dng cng thc Gauss tnh ( , )
n
P k A v s dng cng thc Laplace
tnh
1 2
( , )
n
P k k A . Ta c


1
( , )
(1 ) (1 )
n
k np
P k A f
np p np p
| |
~
|
|

\ .
(8)
trong f(x) l hm s Gauss c bng gi tr cho trc.
2 1
1 2
( , )
(1 ) (1 )
n
k np k np
P k k A
np p np p

| | | |

~
| |
| |

\ . \ .
(9)
trong ( ) x l hm s Laplace c bng gi tr cho trc.
V d 1. Mt thi trc nghim c 100 cu hi, xc sut tr li ng mi cu ca mt
sinh vin l 0,4. Tm xc sut sinh vin tr li ng
a) 50 cu hi. b) t nht 50 cu hi.
V d 2. Xc sut sinh mt b trai l 0,51. Tm xc sut trong 200 em b, s b trai
t hn s b gi.
2. Trng hp n kh ln, P(A) = p kh b
Khi ta s dng cng thc Poisson tnh ( , )
n
P k A . Ta c
( )
( , )
!
np k
n
e np
P k A
k
~
(10)
Ta cng c bng gi tr ca hm s Poisson ng vi mt s gi tr ca np v k.
V d 3. Mt chung c c 160 h gia nh. Xc sut mi h c s c v in vo
bui ti l 0,02. Tm xc sut trong mt bui ti c
a) 4 gia nh gp s c v in. b) t 2 n 5 gia nh gp s c v in.
V d 4. Xc sut mt ht thc ging b lp l 0,006. Tm xc sut sao cho trong
1000 ht thc ging s c
a) 6 ht b lp. b) t 3 n 7 ht b lp.
BI 6. I LNG NGU NHIN
1. Khi nim
i lng cho tng ng mi kt qu ca php th vi mt s c gi l i
lng ngu nhin trn cc kt qu ca php th .
Ni mt cch khc, i lng ngu nhin l i lng c gi tr thay i tu theo
php th.
V d 1. a) S mn thi u ca mt sinh vin trong mt hc k (khi phi thi 5 mn).
b) Nhit ca phng hc trong mt ngy m.
c) S ngi n giao dch ti mt ngn hng trong mt thng.
2. Cc loi i lng ngu nhin
i lng ngu nhin X c dng { }
1 2
, ,...,
n
X x x x = hoc { }
1 2
, ,..., ,...
n
X x x x =
c gi l i lng ngu nhin ri rc.
i lng ngu nhin X = c` ch nhn mt gi tr duy nht c gi l hng s
v c vit l X = c.


i lng ngu nhin c gi tr lp y mt khong hay on no c gi l
i lng ngu nhin lin tc.
V d 2. Cc i lng cho v d 1a, b, c l i lng ri rc hay lin tc?
3. i lng ngu nhin ri rc
a) Bng phn phi xc sut
Cho
{ }
1 2
, ,...,
n
X x x x = l mt i lng ngu nhin ri rc.
t ( ), 1,2,..., .
i i
p P X x i n = = =
Khi bng sau y c gi l bng phn phi xc sut ca X:
X
x
1
x
2

n
x

P p
1
p
2

n
p

Bng phn phi xc sut c cc tnh cht sau
(1) 0 s
i
p
s 1 ; (2)
1
1
n
i
i
p
=
=

V d 3. Gi X l s mn thi u ca mt sinh vin trong hc k phi thi 5 mn. Khi
X nhn cc gi tr: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Gi s X c bng phn phi xc sut sau y.
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P 0,05 0,15 0,3 0,35 0,15 0
T bng ta c xc sut thi u 4 mn ca sinh vin l 0,15; xc sut thi u
c 5 mn l 0.
Trong cc xc sut ta thy ( 3) P X = ln nht nn kh nng sinh vin u 3 mn
l nhiu nht.
V d 4. Mt x th c php bn 3 vin n. Gi X l s vin n anh ta bn trng
bia. Hy lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X trong hai trng hp sau:
a) Bit xc sut bn trng mc tiu ca mi vin n u 0,8.
b) Bit xc sut bn trng mc tiu ca ba vin n ln lt l 0,7; 0,8; 0,9.
b) Hm phn phi xc sut
Cho X l i lng ngu nhin. Ta gi hm s
( ) ( ) ( ) F x P X x x = < e
l hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
Hm phn phi xc sut c cc tnh cht sau
(1) F(x) l hm khng gim;
(2) 0 s F(x) s 1, x e R;
(3)
0 ) ( lim =

x F
x
;
1 ) ( lim =
+
x F
x
;
(4) P(a s X < b) = F(b) F(a), vi mi a, b e R , a < b.


Ngc li, nu F(x) l hm s xc nh trn R v c cc tnh cht (1) (3) th F(x)
l hm phn phi xc sut ca mt i lng ngu nhin no .
Nu X l i lng ngu nhin ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut

X x
1
x
2

n
x

P p
1
p
2

n
p

Vi x
1
< x
2
< <
n
x
, th hm phn phi xc sut ca X l
F(x) =
1
1 2 1
2 3 1 2
1 1 2 1
0
, ...... u
....
1
n n n
n
x x
x x x p
x x x p p
x x x p p p
x x

s
< s
< s +
< s + + +
>
, neu
, neu
, n
, neu
, neu

c) Cc c trng ca i lng ngu nhin ri rc
(i) K vng
Nu X l i lng ngu nhin ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut l :
X x
1
x
2

n
x

P p
1
p
2

n
p

th s
1
( )
n
i i
i
E X x p
=
=
c gi l k vng ca X.
K vng ca mt i lng ngu nhin l trung bnh theo xc sut cc gi tr c
th nhn ca i lng .
(ii) Phng sai
S
2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) D X E X E X = , trong ( ) E X l k vng ca X ,
2 2
1
( )
n
i i
i
E X x p
=
=
l k vng ca
2
X , c gi l phng sai ca i lng ngu
nhin X .
Phng sai l trung bnh ca bnh phng sai s gia X v trung bnh theo
xc sut ca X.
(iii) lch chun
S o(X) = D(X) c gi l lch chun ca i lng ngu nhin X.
V d 5. Cho i lng ngu nhin X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau


X 0 1 2 3 4
P 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,25 0,15
Hy tnh k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca X.
V d 6. Mt sinh vin thi ba mn Ton, L, Ha vi xc sut u ln lt l 0,6 ; 0,7;
0,8. Hy tm hm phn phi xc sut ca s mn anh ta u trong ba mn .

4. i lng ngu nhin lin tc
a) Hm mt phn phi xc sut
Cho X l i lng ngu nhin lin tc nhn gi tr trong khong (a, b) (a, b l s hu
hn hoc v hn). Hm mt phn phi xc sut ca X l hm s ( ) f x xc nh trn
(a, b) sao cho vi mi , ( , ) a b o | e ta c ( ) ( ) P X f x dx
|
o
o | < < =
}
.
Hm mt phn phi xc sut c cc tnh cht sau y:
(1) ( ) 0 , ( , ) f x x a b > e ; (2) ( ) 1
b
a
f x dx =
}
.
V d 7. Cho i lng ngu nhin c hm mt phn phi xc sut
cos
2 2
( )
0 ,
2 2
a x khi x
f x
khi x
t t
t t
s s
=

(
e
(

a) Tm hng s a; b) Tnh (0 )
4
P X
t
< < .
b) Hm phn phi xc sut
Nu X l i lng ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt phn phi xc sut ( ) f x th
( ) ( )
x
F x f t dt
=
}

V d 8. Cho hm s
2 [0,1]
( )
0 [0,1]
x khi x
f x
khi x
e
=

e

a) Chng t ( ) f x l hm mt xc sut ca mt i lng ngu nhin X.
b) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ( ) F x ca X.
c) Tnh xc sut
1
(0 )
2
P X < < .
V d 9. a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin X cho v d 7.
b) Tnh xc sut ( )
6 3
P X
t t
< < .
c) K vng, phng sai, lch chun
Nu X l i lng ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt phn phi xc sut ( ) f x th


2 2
( ) ( ) ; ( ) ( ) E X xf x dx E X x f x dx
+ +

= =
} }

2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) ; ( ) ( ) D X E X E X X D X o = =
V d 10. Cho i lng ngu nhin X c hm mt phn phi xc sut
2 [0,1]
( )
0 [0,1]
x khi x
f x
khi x
e
=

e

Tm k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca X.
V d 11. Cho i lng ngu nhin X c hm mt phn phi xc sut
2
3 [0,1]
( )
0 [0,1]
x khi x
f x
khi x
e
=

e

Tnh k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca X.

5. Mt s phn phi xc sut thng dng
a) Phn phi nh thc
i lng ngu nhin ri rc { } 0,1,2,.., X n = c gi l c phn phi nh thc nu tn
ti s (0,1) pe sao cho ( )
k k n k
k n
p P X k C p q

= = = , trong 1 ; 0,1,2,.., . q p k n = =
Khi ta k hiu ( , ) X B n p .
Nu X c phn phi nh thc th ( ) ; ( ) E X np D X npq = = .
V d 12. T l ph phm ca mt nh my l 3%. Chn ngu nhin 15 sn phm trong
kho hng ca h my. Gi X l s ph phm c trong 15 sn phm . Tm phn phi
xc sut ca X v tnh k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca X.
b) Phn phi siu bi
i lng ngu nhin ri rc { } 0,1,2,.., X n = c gi l c phn phi siu bi nu
tn ti cc s t nhin N, M sao cho 0 M N s s v
( ) ; 0,1,2,..., .
k n k
M N M
k
n
N
C C
p P X k k n
C
= = = =
Khi ta k hiu ( , , ) X H N M n .
Nu X c phn phi siu bi th ( ) ; ( )
1
N n
E X np D X npq
N
= =

, trong
; 1 .
M
p q p
N
= =
V d 13. Mt l hng c 30 sn phm, trong c 10 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin 5
sn phm. Gi X l s ph phm trong 5 sn phm . Tm phn phi xc sut ca X
v tnh k vng, phng sai ca X.
V d 14. Mt ci hp ng 6 vin bi v 14 vin bi xanh. Ly ngu nhin 8 vin bi.
Gi X l s vin bi ly c. Tm phn phi xc sut ca X v tnh k vng,
phng sai, lch chun ca X.


c) Phn phi Poisson
i lng ngu nhin ri rc { } 0,1,2,.., ,... X n = c gi l c phn phi Poisson nu
tn ti s a > 0 sao cho ( ) ; 0,1,2,...
!
a k
k
e a
p P X k k
k
= = = =
Khi ta k hiu ( ) X P a . S a c gi l tham s ca phn phi Poisson.
Nu X c phn phi Poisson th ( ) ( ) . E X D X a = =
Ch . (1) Nu X l s ln bin c A xut hin trong mt khong thi gian hoc trn
mt min, mt vng no th ( ) X P a , vi a l gi tr trung bnh ca s ln A xy
ra.
(2) Nu ( , ) X B n p , trong p kh nh v n kh ln th c th xp x ( ) X P a vi a
= np.
V d 15. S liu ca mt hng hng khng cho thy trong 1000 chuyn bay th c 18
trng hp hnh khch b mt hnh l do b qun. Gi X l s trng hp hnh khch
b mt hnh l trong mt chuyn bay. Tm xc sut trong mt chuyn bay
a) Khng ai b mt hnh l.
b) C mt hnh khch b mt hnh l.
V d 16. Quan st 5 pht thy c 15 ngi gh vo mt i l bu in. Tm xc sut
trong mt pht c 4 ngi vo i l bu in .
V d 17. Xc sut trng ch ca mi ln bn 1 vin n l 0,001. Bn 5000 vin.
Tm xc sut c t nht 2 vin trng.
V d 18. Xc sut mt hp sa trong kho b hng l 0,2%. Chn ngu nhin 800 hp
trong kho. Tm xc sut c t nht 3 hp b hng. Tnh k vng, phng sai v lch
chun ca s hp sa b hng trong 800 hp .
d) Phn phi chun
i lng ngu nhin lin tc X c gi l c phn phi chun vi k vng ,
phng sai
2
o nu hm mt phn phi xc sut ca X c dng
2
2
( )
2
1
( ) , 0
2
x
f x e
o
o
o t
= > .
Khi ta k hiu
2
( , ) X N o .
Nu X c phn phi chun th
2
( ) ; ( ) . E X D X o = =
e) Phn phi chun tc
i lng ngu nhin X c gi l c phn phi chun tc nu (0;1) X N .
Khi ta c ( ) 0 ; ( ) 1 E X D X = = , hm mt phn phi xc sut ca X c dng
2
2
1
( )
2
x
f x e
t

= v c gi l hm mt Gauss. y l hm chn vi gi tr ln
nht
1
max ( ) (0) 0,3989
2
f x f
t
= = = . Ta cng c
0
0
( ) ( ) 0,5 f x dx f x dx
+
= =
} }
.


Lu . (1) Mi phn phi chun u c th chun tc ho nh php i bin, ngha l
nu
2
( , ) X N o th (0;1)
X
Z N
= .
(2) Nu
2
( , ) X N o th ( ) P X
| o
o |
o o
| | | |
< < =
| |
\ . \ .

( ) 2 , 0 P X
o
o o
o
| |
< = >
|
\ .
;
( ) 0,5 ; ( ) 0,5 P X P X
o |
o |
o o
| | | |
> = < = +
| |
\ . \ .
.
V d 19. Thi gian i t nh n trng ca mt sinh vin l i lng ngu nhin c
phn phi chun. Bit rng 65% s ngy sinh vin ny n trng mt hn 20 pht v
8% s ngy mt hn 30 pht.
a) Tnh thi gian i t nh n trng trung bnh ca sinh vin v lch
chun.
b) Gi s sinh vin ny xut pht t nh trc gi hc 25 pht. Tnh xc sut
sinh vin ny b tr hc.
c) Sinh vin ny phi xut pht trc gi hc bao nhiu pht xc sut b tr
hc nh hn 2%?
V d 20. Li sut (%) u t vo mt d n l mt i lng ngu nhin c phn phi
chun. Theo nh gi ca y ban u t th li sut cao hn 20% c xc sut 0,1587;
li
sut cao hn 25% c xc sut 0,0228. Vy kh nng u t khng b thua l l bao
nhiu?

f) Mi lin h gia phn phi chun v phn phi nh thc
Cho ( , ) X B n p . Nu n ln, p khng qu gn 0 v 1, ta c th xp x ( , ) X N np npq .
Khi
1
( )
k np
P X k f
npq npq
| |
= =
|
|
\ .
, vi ( ) f x l hm mt phn phi xc sut
Gauss.
2 1
1 2
( )
k np k np
P k X k
npq npq

| | | |

s s =
| |
| |
\ . \ .
, trong ( ) x l tch phn Laplace.
V d 21. Xc sut sinh c mt b trai l 0,53. Tm xc sut trong 300 em b sp
sinh c
a) 180 b trai; b) t 150 n 175 b trai; c) t nht 190 b trai.
V d 22. Xc sut thi u mn XSTK ca sinh vin mt trng i hc l 0,7. Hc k
ny c 1200 sinh vin thi mn ny. Tm xc sut c
a) 860 sinh vin u; b) t nht 860 sinh vin u; c) t 912 n 1008 sinh vin
u.
BI TP
1. Mt x th c pht 3 vin n v c php bn ln lt tng vin cho n khi
trng mc tiu th dng bn. Bit xc sut bn trng tng vin u l 0,8. Hy lp


bng phn phi xc sut, hm phn phi xc sut v tnh k vng, phng sai, lch
ca s vin n
a) trng mc tiu. b) anh ta s dng.
2. Mt hp cha 10 vin phn trng v 6 vin phn mu. Chn ngu nhin ra 3 vin
phn. Gi X l s vin phn mu ly c. Hy lp bng phn phi xc sut, hm
phn phi xc sut ca X. Tnh k vng, phng sai, lch ca X.
3. Mt sinh vin thi 4 mn, xc sut u tng mn l 0,7. Gi X l s mn anh ta u.
Hy lp bng phn phi xc sut v tnh k vng, phng sai ca X.
4. thi trc nghim c 20 cu hi, mi cu c 4 phng n tr li, trong ch c 1
phng n ng. Mt sinh vin khng hc bi nn khi i thi chn ngu nhin mt
phng n cho tng cu hi. Gi X l s cu anh ta tr li ng. Hy tm phn phi
xc sut ca X v tnh k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca X.
5. Cho i lng ngu nhin X c hm mt xc sut
6 (1 ) [0;1]
( )
0 [0;1]
x x khi x
f x
khi x
e
=

e

a) Tnh k vng, phng sai, lch chun ca x.
b) Tm (0 )
4
P X
t
s s .
6. Trong 3000 qu ca mt loi tri cy ngi ta thy c 500 qu nng hn 1800 gam,
1000 qu nng di 1500 gam. Hy tnh khi lng trung bnh v lch chun ca
loi tri cy , bit rng khi lng tri cy c phn phi chun.

BI 7. L THUYT MU
1. Tng th v mu
- Tp hp tt c cc phn t m ta quan tm nghin cu trong mt vn no c
gi l tng th.
- Tp con ly ra t tng th c gi l mu.
S phn t ca mu c gi l kch thc mu.

2. Phn loi mu
- Mu nh tnh: l mu m ta quan tm n cc phn t trong mu c tnh cht T no
hay khng. Khi mu c cho dng:
- Kch thc mu: n
- S phn t c tnh cht T ca mu: k
- Mu nh lng: l mu m ta quan tm n gi tr ca tng phn t trong mu. Khi
mu c cho dng :
- Kch thc mu: n
- Gi tr ca cc phn t: x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
n

Nu mu c cc phn t c gi tr ging nhau th thng c cho dng thu gn:
gi tr x
1
c tn s n
1
, gi tr x
2
c tn s n
2
, ...,
gi tr x
m
c tn s n
m
, trong n
1
+ n
2
+ ... + n
m
= n


Nu n
i
l s phn t ca mu nhn gi tr trong khong (a
i
, b
i
) th ta xem chng nhn
gi tr chung l
2
i i
a b
i
x

3. Cc c trng ca mu nh tnh
Tn sut mu (hay l t l mu):
k
n
f
V d 1. Trc k bu c, ngi ta phng vn 1575 c tri th thy c 1212 ngi tr
li l ng h ng c vin X. Tm t l mu ng h ng c vin X.
V d 2.Ngi ta bt c 1200 con c, nh du ri th li vo h nc. Sau mt thi
gian bt li 250 con th thy c 32 con b nh du. Hy tm t l mu b nh du.
4. Cc c trng ca mu nh lng
a) Trung bnh mu:
1
1
m
i i n
i
X x n

b) Trung bnh mu bnh phng:
2 2
1
1
m
i i n
i
X x n
c) Phng sai mu:
^
2 2 2
( ) S X X

d) Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
^
2 2
1
n
n
S S

e) lch mu hiu chnh:
2
S S
V d 3. nghin cu nhu cu mua go mt thnh ph, ngi ta tin hnh iu tra
mt s gia nh v ghi kt qu bng sau y.
Nhu cu
(kg/thng)
S gia nh Nhu cu S gia nh
30 35
35 40
40 45
45 50
50 - 55
45
68
103
179
208
55 60
60 65
65 70
70 75
75 - 80
182
151
115
94
55

a) Hy tnh cc c trng mu.
b) Tnh t l mu c nhu cu trn 60 kg/thng.

BI TP
1. o chiu cao ca mt s thanh nin la tui 18 20 tnh Tin Giang, ta thu
c bng sau y
Chiu cao (cm) S ngi c chiu cao tng ng
154 158
158 162
162 166
166 170
170 174
174 178
178 - 182
10
14
26
28
12
8
2


a) Hy tnh cc c trng mu.
b) Tnh t l mu c chiu cao trn 1,7m.
2. im kim tra mn Ton ca mt s sinh vin c cho trong bng sau.
im 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
S sinh vin 1 2 5 10 20 48 3 22 10 5 2
a) Tnh im kim tra trung bnh v phng sai mu hiu chnh ca mu .
b) Tm t l mu c im kim tra di trung bnh.
3. nghin cu tui th ca mt loi bng n, ngi ta thp th 100 bng v c s
liu sau
Tui th (gi) S bng tng ng
1010 1030
1030 1050
1050 1070
1070 1090
1090 1110
1110 1130
1130 1150
1150 1170
1170 1190
1190 1210
2
3
8
13
25
20
12
10
6
1
Sau khi ci tin k thut, ngi ta li thp th 100 bng, kt qu l
Tui th (gi) 1150 1160 1170 1180 1190 1200
S bng 10 15 20 30 15 10
Hy so snh tui th trung bnh v lch mu hiu chnh ca cc bng n trc
v sau khi ci tin k thut.

BI 8. BI TON C LNG T L
1. Bi ton
Gi s tng th gm hai loi phn t: c tnh cht T v khng c tnh cht ny. Ta cn
c lng t l P cc phn t c tnh cht T ca tng th vi tin cy 1 o cho trc.
2. Phng php gii bi ton
- Ly mu nh tnh gm n phn t ca tng th ( 30 n > ), ta tnh c tn sut mu f.
- T tin cy, tra bng hm s Laplace, ta tm s
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

=
.
- Tnh sai s ca bi ton
(1 )
/ 2
f f
n
Z
o
c

=

Khi t l cc phn t c tnh cht T ca tng th l
c = f P

hay
c c + s s f P f
.


V d 1. Trc ngy bu c tng thng, ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 1800 c tri th
thy c 1180 ngi ng h ng c vin A. Vi tin cy 95%, hi ng c vin thu
c ti thiu bao nhiu phn trm s phiu bu ?
V d 2. Ngi ta bt c 1500 con th, nh du ri th li vo rng. Sau mt thi
gian bt li 360 con th thy c 27 con b nh du. Hy c lng s th trong rng
vi tin cy 99%.

BI TP
1. Kim tra ngu nhin 500 sn phm ca mt nh my th thy c 360 sn phm loi
mt. Hy c lng t l sn phm loi mt ti thiu ca c nh my vi tin cy
95%.
2. Ly ngu nhin 400 hp t mt kho hp kim tra th thy c 20 hp b hng.
T kt qu kim tra , hy c lng t l ph phm ca kho hng vi tin cy
95,45%.
3. Ti mt khu rng nguyn sinh, ngi ta eo vng vo chn ca 1200 con chim. Sau
mt thi gian bt li 250 con th thy 40 con c eo vng. Hy c lng s chim
trong khu rng vi tin cy 99%.
4. Mun bit s c c trong mt h ln, ngi ta bt ln 2000 con, nh du xong li
th chng xung h . Sau ngi ta bt ln 400 con th thy c 55 con b nh du.
Vi tin cy 0,95 hy c lng s c trong h. Cho bit mi con c c khi lng
trung bnh 800 gam v mi kilgam c bn c 22000. Tnh doanh thu ti thiu khi
bn ht s c trong h.

BI 9. BI TON C LNG GI TR TRUNG BNH

1. Bi ton
Gi s tng th c gi tr ca cc phn t cha bit. Ta cn c lng gi tr
trung bnh
ca cc phn t ca tng th vi tin cy 1 o cho trc.

a) Trng hp bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th
- Ly mu nh lng gm n phn t ca tng th , ta tnh c
X
.
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

=
.
- Tnh sai s ca bi ton / 2
n
Z
o
o
c =

Khi gi tr trung bnh ca cc phn t ca tng th l
c = X

hay
c c + s s X X

V d 1. Kt qu thu thp trong 15 ngy ti mt cng ty cho thy trung bnh mt ngy
c 267 trang ti liu c chuyn i bng fax. Theo kinh nghim t cc vn phng
tng t th lch chun l 32 trang. Gi s s trang ti liu c chuyn i bng fax


trong mt ngy c phn phi chun. Hy c lng s trang ti liu c fax i trong
mt ngy ca cng ty vi tin cy 97%.
V d 2. Cho mt mu gm 16 sn phm c chn t tng th c phn phi chun
vi phng sai l 25. Bit rng trung bnh mu l 330 gam. Vi tin cy 90%, hy
c lng gi tr trung bnh ca tng th .

b) Trng hp cha bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th, mu c kch thc 30 n >
- Ly mu nh lng gm n phn t ca tng th , ta tnh c , X S.
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

= .
- Tnh sai s ca bi ton / 2
S
n
Z
o
c =

c = X

hay
c c + s s X X

V d 3. Thng k im trung bnh mn Ton ca 50 sinh vin mt trng i hc,
ta c kt qu : X = 6,1; S = 1,0. Hy c lng im trung bnh mn Ton ca sinh
vin ton trng vi tin cy 95%.
V d 4. Quan st nng sut ca 100 cng nhn trong mt x nghip, ngi ta tnh
c nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn l X = 12 sn phm / ngy v S
2
= 25.
Hy c lng nng sut trung bnh ca mt cng nhn trong x nghip vi tin cy
99%.
c) Trng hp cha bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th, mu c kch thc 30 n <
- T tin cy 1 o , tra bng phn phi Student dng 1 n , ct / 2 o , ta tm c s
1, / 2 n
T
o

- Tnh sai s ca bi ton 1, / 2
S
n
n
T
o
c

=

c = X

hay
c c + s s X X

V d 5. o ng knh ca 20 trc my do mt my tin t ng sn xut ra, ta c
kt qu sau (tnh bng mm)
250 ; 249 ; 251 ; 253 ; 248 ; 250 ; 250 ; 252 ; 257 ; 245 ;
248 ; 247 ; 249 ; 249 ; 250 ; 280 ; 250 ; 247 ; 253 ; 256.
Gi s ng knh ca cc trc my l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Hy
c lng ng knh trung bnh ca cc trc my do my tin sn xut vi tin cy
95%.
V d 6. mt ca hng ch bin thy sn, theo di lng nc mm bn ra trong
mt s ngy, ngi ta ghi c bng s liu sau.



S lng bn
ra (lt)
S ngy

20 30
30 40
40 50
50 60
60 70
70 80
80 90
90 100
> 100
3
8
30
45
20
25
17
9
4
Hy c lng s lt nc mm bn ra trung bnh mi ngy ca ca hng vi
tin cy 99% trong hai trng hp sau y:
a) bit phng sai o
2
= 132,25;
b) cha bit phng sai.
BI TP
1. Cn th 100 tri cy ca mt nng trng, ta c kt qu sau y.
Khi lng (g) S tri
35 55
55 75
75 95
95 115
115 135
135 155
155 - 175
3
10
25
35
20
6
1
a) Hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca tri cy trong nng trng vi tin
cy 90,106%.
b) Xem cc tri cy c khi lng khng qu 95 gam l tri cy loi hai. Hy c
lng t l tri cy loi hai vi tin cy 95,45%.
2. o ng knh ca mt s chi tit do mt my sn xut, ta c s liu sau:
ng knh (mm) S chi tit
19,80 19,85
19,85 19,90
19,90 19,95
19,95 20,00
20,00 20,05
20,05 20,10
3
5
16
28
23
14


20,10 20,15
20,15 20,20
7
4
a) Hy c lng ng knh trung bnh ca cc chi tit do my sn xut vi
tin cy 95%.
b) Hy c lng t l chi tit t tiu chun vi tin cy 99%, bit rng nhng
chi tit t tiu chun phi c ng knh t 19,9 mm n 20,1 mm.
3. xc nh nh mc thi gian gia cng mt chi tit my, ngi ta tin hnh th
nghim gia cng 25 chi tit. Kt qu trn tp mu thu c nh sau.
Thi gian trung bnh X = 20 pht, lch mu hiu chnh S = 2,02 pht.
Vi tin cy 90%, hy xc nh thi gian gia cng trung bnh ti a i vi loi
chi tit , gi s thi gian gia cng tun theo quy lut phn phi chun.
4. Cn th khi lng ca mt s gia cm mt tri chn nui, ta c kt qu sau
(tnh bng kilgam).
3,25 ; 2,5 ; 4 ; 3,75 ; 3,8 ; 3,9 ; 4,02 ;
3,8 ; 3,2 ; 3,82 ; 3,4 ; 3,6 ; 3,75 ; 4 ; 3,5.
Gi s khi lng gia cm tun theo quy lut phn phi chun vi phng sai 0,01.
Hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca mt con gia cm vi tin cy 99%.
BI 10. BI TON C LNG PHNG SAI
1. Bi ton
Gi s tng th c phng sai cha bit. Ta cn c lng phng sai
2
o ca tng
th vi tin cy 1 o cho trc, bit tng th c phn phi chun.
- Ly mu nh lng gm n phn t ca tng th, ta tnh c
2
S .
- Tra bng phn phi khi bnh phng dng 1 n , cc ct 1 / 2, / 2 o o , ta
tm c hai s tng ng l
2 2
1 2
; _ _ .
- Khong c lng cho phng sai ca tng th l
2 2
2
2 2
1 2
( 1) ( 1)
;
n S n S
o
_ _
| |

e |
|
\ .

hay
2 2
2
2 2
1 2
( 1) ( 1) n S n S
o
_ _

s s

V d 1. Theo di s hng bn c trong mt ngy mt ca hng, ta c kt
qu ghi bng sau.
S hng bn c (kg) S ngy
1900 1950
1950 2000
2000 2050
2
10
8


2050 - 2100 5
Hy c lng phng sai ca lng hng bn c mi ngy vi tin cy 95%.
BI TP
1. ng knh trc ca mt loi sn phm l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi
chun. Kim tra 6 trc chn ngu nhin ta c kt qu sau y (tnh bng cm):
7,1 ; 6,6 ; 9,7 ; 10,6 ; 7,5 ; 9,1.
a) Tm c lng khng chch (tc l
2
S ) cho phng sai ng knh trc.
b) Tm khong c lng cho phng sai vi tin cy 0,95.
2. Kim tra ngu nhin 28 sn phm cng loi do mt my sn xut, ta thu c kt
qu sau
Khi lng sn phm (kg) 3,94 3,97 4,00 4,03 4,06
S sn phm 2 7 10 6 3
a) Vi tin cy 0,95, hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca sn phm do my
sn xut.
b) Hy c lng phng sai ca khi lng sn phm do my sn xut vi tin
cy 0,95, bit rng khi lng sn phm c phn phi chun.
3. o p lc X (tnh bng kg/cm
2
) ca mt s thng cha, ta c bng kt qu sau.
p lc 200 210 220 230 240 250
S thng 10 26 56 64 30 14
Bit rng p lc l mt i lng c phn phi chun.
a) Vi tin cy 0,99, hy tm khong c lng ca p lc trung bnh.
b) Tm khong c lng ca phng sai ca p lc vi tin cy 0,95.

BI 11. BI TON KIM NH GI THIT V T L
1. Kim nh gi thit v t l ca mt tng th
a) Bi ton
Gi s tng th gm hai loi phn t: c tnh cht T v khng c tnh cht ny.
T l cc phn t ca tng th c tnh cht T l P cha bit. Ta a ra gi thit:
H: T l p cc phn t c tnh cht T ca tng th l
0
P p = .
Ta cn kim nh xem gi thit ng hay sai vi mc ngha
o
cho trc.
b) Phng php gii bi ton
-Ly mu nh tnh gm n phn t ca tng th ( 30 n > ), ta tnh c tn sut mu f.
- T mc ngha o, tra bng hm s Laplace, ta tm
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

=
.
- Tnh gi tr kim nh:
0
0 0
0
(1 )
f p
p p
Z n
=

- So snh
0
Z vi
/ 2
Z
o
:


Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
s th gi thit H l ng.
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
> th gi thit H l sai.
Ch : Trong mi trng hp, khi ta bc b gi thit H, ngha l
0
P p = , th cn so
snh t l mu f vi
0
p :
- Nu
0
f p < th kt lun
0
P p < .
- Nu
0
f p > th kt lun
0
P p > .
V d 1. Theo bo co, t l hng ph phm trong kho l 10%. Kim tra ngu nhin
100 sn phm trong kho th thy c 8 ph phm. Hi bo co trn c ng tin mc
ngha 5% hay khng?
V d 2. Trc y t l ph phm ca mt nh my l 5%. Nm nay ngi ta p dng
mt bin php k thut mi sn xut. Sau mt thi gian, kim tra 800 sn phm th
thy c 24 ph phm. Vi mc ngha 1%, hy nh gi hiu qu ca bin php k
thut .
2. Kim nh so snh hai t l
a) Bi ton
Gi s t l ca hai tng th ln lt l
1 2
; P P cha bit. Ta cn kim nh gi thit
H:
1 2
" " P P = vi mc ngha
o
cho trc.
b) Phng php
- T hai mu tng ng kch thc n
1
, n
2
> 30, ta tnh c cc t l mu f
1
, f
2
.
- Tra bng hm s Laplace tm
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
/ 2
1
( )
2
Z
o
o

= .
- Tnh gi tr kim nh:
1 2
0
1 2
f
1 1
(1 )
o o
f
Z
p p
n n
=
| |
+
|
\ .
,
trong
1 1 2 2 1 2
0
1 2 1 2
n f n f k k
p
n n n n
+ +
= =
+ +
.
- So snh Zo vi
/ 2
Z
o
:
. Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
. Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
V d 3. Kim tra 100 sn phm kho hng th nht thy c 8 ph phm. Kim tra
150 sn phm kho hng th hai thy c 18 ph phm. Vi mc ngha 0,05, c th
cho rng cht lng hng hai kho l khc nhau khng?
BI TP
1. T l ngi mc bnh tai mi hng mt thnh ph l 6%. Trong ln kim tra sc
kho ngu nhin 300 ngi th thy c 24 ngi mc bnh tai mi hng. Vi o = 0,01
c th cho rng t l ngi mc bnh c xu hng tng ln khng ?
2. Khi iu tr bng thuc A, t l bnh nhn khi bnh l 80%. i sang thuc B
iu tr cho 1110 ngi th thy c 920 ngi khi bnh. Vi mc ngha o = 0,02 c
th cho rng thuc B hiu qu hn thuc A hay khng ?


3. Mt my sn xut t ng c t l sn phm khng t tiu chun l 24%. Sau khi
p dng phng php sn xut mi, ngi ta ly 40 thng hng, mi thng c 10 sn
phm kim tra. Kt qu cho trong bng sau
S sn phm khng t tiu chun 0 1 2 3 4 5
S thng hng 10 9 8 6 5 2
Vi mc ngha o = 0,05, hy nh gi hiu qu ca phng php sn xut mi ny.
4. Theo di s tai nn lao ng ca hai x nghip trong mt thi gian ta c s liu sau.
X nghip th nht : 20 tai nn/400 cng nhn. X nghip th hai : 28 tai nn/500 cng
nhn. Hi c s khc nhau ng k v cht lng cng tc phng h lao ng hai x
nghip vi o = 2%?
5. Theo phng php nui th nht ta c 12 con g b bnh trong n g 200 con.
Theo phng php nui th hai c 5 con b bnh trong n g 100 con. Vi o = 5%
c th kt lun rng t l g b bnh khi nui theo phng php th hai thp hn
khng?

BI 12. BI TON KIM NH GI THIT
V GI TR TRUNG BNH

1. Kim nh gi thit v gi tr trung bnh ca mt tng th
a) Bi ton
Gi s tng th c gi tr trung bnh
ca cc phn t cha bit. Ta a ra gi thit:

H: Gi tr trung bnh
ca cc phn t ca tng th l
0
=
.
Ta cn kim nh xem gi thit ng hay sai vi mc ngha o cho trc.
b) Phng php gii bi ton
* Trng hp bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th
- Ly mu nh lng gm n phn t ca tng th ta tnh c X .
- T mc ngha o, tra bng hm s Laplace, ta tm
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

=
.
- Tnh gi tr kim nh :
0
0
X
Z n
=
- So snh
0
Z vi
/ 2
Z
o
:
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
V d 1. Khi lng quy nh cho mi gi m n lin c ng gi t ng l 85
gam, lch tiu chun l 15 gam. Sau m thi gian sn xut, kim tra ngu nhin 81
gi th thy khi lng trung bnh l 82 gam. Vi mc ngha 0,01, hy kt lun v
tnh hnh sn xut.


* Trng hp cha bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th, mu c kch thc 30 n >
- Ly mu nh lng gm n phn t ca tng th ta tnh c X v S.
- T mc ngha
o
, tra bng hm s Laplace, ta tm
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

=
.
- Tnh gi tr kim nh:
0
0
X
S
Z n

=
- So snh
0
Z vi
/ 2
Z
o
:
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
V d 2. bn ca mt loi dy thp sn xut theo cng ngh c l 150. Sau khi ci
tin k thut ngi ta ly 100 si dy thp th th thy bn trung bnh l 185 v
S = 25. Vi o = 0,03, hy kt lun hiu qu ca vic ci tin k thut.
* Trng hp cha bit phng sai
2
o ca tng th, mu c kch thc 30 n <
- T tin cy 1 o , tra bng phn phi Student dng 1 n , ct / 2 o , ta tm c s
1, / 2 n
T
o

- Tnh gi tr kim nh:
0
0
X
S
Z n

= .
- So snh
0
Z vi
1, / 2 n
T
o
:
Nu
0 1, / 2 n
Z T
o
Nu
0 1, / 2 n
Z T
o
Ch : Trong mi trng hp, khi ta bc b gi thit H, ngha l
0
= , th cn so
snh X vi
0
:
- Nu
0
X < th kt lun
0
< .
- Nu
0
X > th kt lun
0
> .
V d 3. Mt ca hng nhn thy lu nay trung bnh mi khch hng mua 15 ngn
ng. Tun ny ca hng chn ngu nhin 16 khch hng th thy trung bnh mi
ngi mua 14 ngn ng v lch mu hiu chnh l 2 ngn ng. Cho bit sc mua
ca khch hng c phn phi chun. Vi mc ngha 5%, xt xem sc mua ca khch
hng c gim st khng ?
V d 4. Mt nh my sn xut n chp hnh qung co tui th trung bnh ca sn
phm l 100 gi. Ngi ta chn ngu nhin 15 bng th nghim th thy tui th trung
bnh l 99,7 gi v phng sai mu hiu chnh l 0,15. Gi s tui th ca n c phn
phi chun. Hy kt lun v li qung co mc ngha 1%.
2. Kim nh so snh gi tr trung bnh ca hai tng th
a) Bi ton
Gi s gi tr trung bnh ca hai tng th ln lt l
1
,
2
. Ta cn kim nh gi
thit H :
1
=
2
vi mc ngha o.


b) Phng php
- T hai mu tng ng kch thc n
1
, n
2
> 30, ta tnh c
2
2
2
2
1
1 S , X ; S , X .
- Tra bng ta tm c s
/ 2
Z
o
sao cho
1
/ 2
2
( ) Z
o
o

= .
- Tnh gi tr kim nh: Zo =
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 1
n
S
n
S
X X
+
.
- So snh
0
Z vi
/ 2
Z
o
:
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o
Nu
0 / 2
Z Z
o

V d 5. Chiu cao trung bnh ca 100 hc sinh nam mt trng trung hc ni thnh
l 1,68m, lch mu hiu chnh l 6m. Kim tra 120 em mt huyn ngoi thnh th
thy chiu cao trung bnh l 1,64m, lch mu hiu chnh l 5cm. Vi mc ngha
5%, c th kt lun rng hc sinh ni thnh pht trin th lc tt hn khng?
V d 6. Mt tri chn nui chn mt ging g nghin cu hiu qu ca hai loi
thc n A v B. Sau mt thi gian nui th nghim, ngi ta chn 50 con g nui
bng thc n A th thy khi lng trung bnh l 2,2 kg v lch mu hiu chnh l
1,25 kg. Chn 40 con g nui bng thc n B th thy khi lng trung bnh l 1,2 kg
v lch mu hiu chnh l 1,02 kg. Hy nh gi hiu qu ca hai loi thc n
vi mc ngha 1%.

BI TP

1. Nng sut la trung bnh v trc l 4,5 tn/ha. V la nm nay ngi ta p dng
bin php k thut mi cho ton b din tch trng la trong vng. Theo di 100 ha ta
c bng nng sut la sau y.
Nng sut
(t/ha)
Din tch
(ha)
Nng sut Din tch
30 35
35 40
40 45
45 50
7
12
18
27
50 55
55 60
60 65
65 70
20
8
5
3
Vi o = 0,01 hy kt lun v bin php k thut mi.
2. nghin cu nhu cu mt loi hng, ngi ta kho st nhu cu ca mt hng ny
mt s h gia nh. Kt qu cho bng sau.



Nhu cu
(kg/thng)
S h gia
nh
Nhu cu S h gia
nh
< 1
1 2
2 3
3 4
10
35
86
132
4 5
5 6
6 7
7 8
78
31
18
10
Gi s khu vc c 4000 h gia nh. Nu cho rng nhu cu trung bnh v mt
hng ny ca ton khu vc l 168 tn trong mt nm th c chp nhn c khng vi
mc ngha 1% ?
3. Khi lng ca mt loi sn phm do mt nh my sn xut l i lng ngu
nhin c phn phi chun vi khi lng trung bnh quy nh l 500 gam. Nghi ng
khi lng ca loi sn phm ny c xu hng gim st, ngi ta cn th mt s
sn phm v thu c kt qu ghi bng sau.
Khi lng (g) 480 485 490 495 500 510
S sn phm 2 3 8 5 3 4
Vi o = 2%, hy kt lun v iu nghi ng .
4. Kt qu o chiu cao ca 24 tr em 2 tui c ghi trong bng sau (n v tnh: cm)
84,4
80,0
82,5
89,9
81,3
80,7
89,0
86,8
84,3
87,0
83,4
85,4
78,5
89,8
85,0
84,1
85,4
85,5
86,3
80,6
81,6
80,6
85,0
81,9
Chiu cao chun ca tr em 2 tui l 86,5 cm. Hi vi o = 0,01 c s khc bit ng
k ca chiu cao nhm tr so vi chun khng ?
5. Kim tra cc sn phm do hai phn xng sn xut, ta c cc s liu sau y.
Phn
xng
S sn phm
c kim tra
Khi lng
trung bnh (kg)
Phng sai
mu hiu chnh
S ph phm
1
2
900
800
50,2
50,1
0,16
0,20
18
15
a) Vi mc ngha 0,05 c th coi khi lng trung bnh ca cc sn phm do hai
phn xng sn xut l nh nhau c khng ?
b) Vi mc ngha 0,01 c th coi t l ph phm ca hai phn xng cng nh nhau
hay khng ?
6. Kim tra 100 sn phm do my th nht sn xut ta thy khi lng trung bnh l
251 gam, phng sai mu hiu chnh l 9(g
2
). Kim tra 100 sn phm do my th hai
sn xut ta c kt qu tng ng l 249g, 16g
2
.Vi mc ngha 0,02 c th kt lun
khi lng trung bnh ca sn phm do hai my sn xut l khc nhau hay khng?



BI 13. BI TON KIM NH GI THIT V PHNG SAI
1. Bi ton
Gi s tng th c phn phi chun vi phng sai o
2
cha bit. Cn kim nh
gi thit H : o
2
=
2
o
vi mc ngha o.
2. Phng php
- T mu nh lng kch thc n, ta tnh c phng sai mu hiu chnh S
2
.
- Tra bng phn phi khi bnh phng dng n 1, ct 1 -
2
o
v ct
2
o
, ta tm
c hai s tng ng l
2
2
2
1
, _ _ .
- Tnh gi tr kim nh:
2
2
2
0
) 1 (
o
S n
o
_

= .
- So snh
2
0
_ vi
2
2
2
1
, _ _ :
. Nu
2
1
_ s
2
0
_ s
2
2
_ th chp nhn H.
. Nu
2
0
_ <
2
1
_ hoc
2
0
_ >
2
2
_ th bc b H.
V d 1. o ng knh ca 25 vin bi t mt l hng, ta tnh c S = 0,3 mm. Vi
mc ngha 0,01, hy kim nh gi thit cho rng phng sai ca ng knh cc
vin bi trong l hng trn l 0,06 mm
2
, bit ng knh tun theo quy lut phn
phi chun.
BI TP
1. Nu my mc hot ng bnh thng th khi lng ca mt loi sn phm l i
lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun vi phng sai o
2
= 25. Nghi ng my hot
ng khng bnh thng, ngi ta cn th 20 sn phm v tnh c S
2
= 27,5. Vi
mc ngha 0,05 hy kt lun v iu nghi ng .
2. Cho bit ng knh ca mt loi chi tit l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi
chun vi phng sai o
2
= 0,04 mm
2
. o ng knh ca 15 chi tit ta c lch
mu hiu chnh l 0,22 mm. Vi mc ngha 0,05, hy kim nh gi thit cho rng
phn tn (tc l phng sai) ca ng knh l qu khc bit so vi quy nh.

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n thi TS cao hc mn Xc sut v thng k PGS-TS L Anh V

ca cc phn t ca tng th vi tin cy 1 o cho trc.

ca cc phn t cha bit. Ta a ra gi thit:

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