CHNG 16

QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON TRONG THC TIEN

Noi dung chnh mang tnh chat he thong lien quan en quyet nh cau truc von.
Cau truc von c nh ngha la s ket hp cua n ngan han thng xuyen, n dai han, co phan u ai, va von co phan thng. Cau truc von toi u toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung von, toi thieu hoa rui ro va toi a hoa gia tr doanh nghiep. Gia tr cua doanh nghiep oc lap vi cau truc von neu co cac th trng von hoan hao va khong co thue thu nhap doanh nghiep. Vi s hien dien cua thue TNDN, chi ph pha san va chi ph ai ly, co the co mot cau truc von toi u gom ca n va von co phan thng.

16.1 CAC QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON VA TOI A HOA TAI SAN CO ONG
So lng n trong cau truc von toi u cua doanh nghiep c goi la kha nang vay n cua doanh nghiep. Cau truc von toi u va kha nang vay n cua mot doanh nghiep c xac nh bi cac yeu to: Rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, Thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va thue thu nhap ca nhan, Mc o pha san co the co, Chi ph ai ly, Vai tro cua chnh sach cau truc von trong viec cung cap cac tn hieu ve thanh qua cua doanh nghiep cho cac th trng von.

Cac yeu to khac can xem xet trong quyet nh cau truc von
Cac tieu chuan nganh Tac ong cua tn hieu cho th trng tai chnh khi doanh nghiep phat hanh chng khoan mi . Tac ong cua u tien quan tr: ly thuyet trat t phan hang Cac ham y ve quan tr cua ly thuyet cau truc von Cac van e ao c: tac ong cua mua lai bang von vay (LBO) oi vi co ong Cac oi hoi cua nha cho vay va c quan xep hang trai phieu S khong thch rui ro cua cap quan ly

16.2 THC HANH QUAN TR CAU TRUC VON

Thc hanh quan tr cau truc von bao gom 3 van e chnh sau: Phan tch EBIT-EPS Xac nh mot cau truc von toi u thong qua viec s dung phan tch EBIT-EPS on bay tai chnh va gia co phan Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat Cac van e cau truc von quoc te

Phan tch EBIT-EPS

Cong ty Macbeth Spot Removers trong chng 15 hien co mot cau truc von ch gom co co phan thng (35 trieu co phan). Macbeth ang tham nh hai phng an tai tr cho viec m rong hoat ong : Phng an 1: tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan, ban them 15 trieu co phan thng vi gia 20$ moi co phan. Phng an 2: tai tr them bang n, phat hanh 300 trieu o la trai phieu lai suat 10%.

Phan tch EBIT-EPS

Phan tch EBIT-EPS c dung e giup doanh nghiep xac nh khi nao tai tr n va khi nao tai tr von co phan co li hn. Bang 16.2 minh hoa tnh toan EPS tai hai mc EBIT gia nh khac nhau cho ca hai phng an tai tr. V moi lien he gia EBIT va EPS la tuyen tnh, hai iem tnh trong bang 16.2 co the c dung e o th hoa moi lien he cho moi phng an tai tr, nh trong hnh 16.1.

Phng an 1 - Tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan

Bang 16.2 EBIT Lai vay EBT (Lai trc thue) Thue TNDN (thue suat 40%) EAT (Lai sau thue) So co phan (trieu co phan) EPS % thay oi trong EBIT % thay oi trong EPS EBIT = 75 EBIT = 125 75 125 ---------------75 125 30 50 ---------------45 75 50 50 0,90 1,50 +66,67% +66,67%

Phng an 2 - Tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh

Bang 16.2 EBIT Lai vay EBT (Lai trc thue) Thue TNDN (thue suat 40%) EAT (Lai sau thue) So co phan (trieu co phan) EPS % thay oi trong EBIT % thay oi trong EPS EBIT = 75 75 --------45 --------27 35 0,77

EBIT = 125 125 -------95 -------57 35 1,63 +66,67% +112%

Phan tch EBIT-EPS

Phng trnh xac nh iem hoa von EBIT gia 2 phng an c viet nh sau: EBIT(1 T) NE (EBIT R)(1 T) NDE

EPS =

NE : so co phan thng cha chi tra tng ng cua phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. NDE : so co phan thng cha chi tra cua phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh.

Phan tch EBIT-EPS

Vi cac d lieu trong v du bang 16.2 cho ta mc EBIT la 100 trieu o la tai iem hoa von: EPS = EBIT(1 40%) (EBIT 30)(1 40%) = 50 35

21EBIT = 30EBIT 900 9EBIT = 900 EBIT = 100 (trieu o la)

Phan tch EBIT-EPS

Tai tr n Tai tr co phan thng
Li the cua tai tr bang co phan thng Li the cua tai tr bang n vay

EPS ( o la)

   

 

EBIT ( trieu o la)

Xac nh mot cau truc von toi u thong qua viec s dung phan tch EBIT-EPS

Bc 1: Tnh toan mc EBIT d kien sau khi m rong hoat ong. EBIT d kien se la 125 trieu $/nam trong cac ieu kien hoat ong bnh thng. Bc 2: c lng tnh kha bien cua mc li nhuan kinh doanh nay o lech chuan cua li nhuan kinh doanh c c lng vao khoang 25 trieu$/nam.

Xac nh mot cau truc von toi u thong qua viec s dung phan tch EBIT-EPS Bc 3: Tnh toan iem hoa von EBIT gia hai phng an tai tr - them n mi hay duy tr cau truc von 100% von co phan . Tnh c iem hoa von EBIT la 100 trieu $. Bc 4: Phan tch cac c lng nay trong boi canh rui ro ma cong ty san sang chap nhan. Bc 5: Xem xet cac chng c th trng e xac nh cau truc von e xuat co qua rui ro: Mc o rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, nh mc nganh cho cac ty so on bay va ch so kha nang thanh toan, Khuyen cao cua cac ngan hang oi vi doanh nghiep.

Bc 4 : Phan tch cac c lng trong boi canh rui ro ma cong ty san sang chap nhan. Cong ty quyet nh chap nhan mot c hoi 25% EBIT trong moi nam se thap hn iem hoa von va mot c hoi 5% doanh nghiep se phai bao cao lo trong tng nam. Can tnh xac suat lai trc thue va lai vay se thap hn iem hoa von EBIT (100 trieu $). Tren ng cong phan phoi chuan iem nay se tng ng vi:

30 trieu $ 125 trieu $ 25 trieu $

3,8

Xac nh iem hoa von gia tr th trng

iem hoa von gia tr th trng la iem ma tai o neu EBIT d kien thap hn iem hoa von gia tr th trng th cau truc von thien ve s dung von co phan se co li hn. Ngc lai neu EBIT d kien vt qua iem hoa von gia tr th trng th cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh se lam toi a hoa gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep.

Xac nh iem hoa von gia tr th trng

iem hoa von gia tr th trng c xac nh bang phng trnh:

EBIT(1 T) P / E E NE EBIT R 1 T P / E DE N DE

0,6 xEBITx10 50

0,6 x(EBIT 30)x 9,8 35

210EBIT = 294EBIT - 8.820 84EBIT = 8.820 EBIT = 105 trieu $

Xac nh iem hoa von gia tr th trng

Neu Macbeth tang on bay tai chnh len cao hn na th ieu g se xay ra? Gia du cong ty ang hoat ong mc EBIT 125 trieu o la, a chon mot cau truc von co mc o on bay ln hn, lam EPS tang en 2,25$. Gia du them la th trng chng khoan phan bo mot ty so P/E la 6,0, gia co phan cua cong ty se la 13,50$ hay 2,25$ x 6,0. Ro rang thay oi nay trong cau truc von la ieu ma cong ty khong mong muon.

Tom lai

Doanh nghiep co the gia tang thu nhap cho co ong bang cach gia tang mc rui ro tai chnh. Tuy nhien, gia tang rui ro co khuynh hng lam gia tang chi ph s dung von (tng t nh mot sut giam trong ty so P/E), Giam oc tai chnh phai xem xet viec anh oi gia thu nhap moi co phan cao vi chi ph s dung von cao hn e t o a ra mot quyet nh hieu qua hn.

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Donaldson cho rang kha nang vay n cua mot doanh nghiep se tuy thuoc vao so d tien mat va cac dong tien rong d kien co san trong mot trng hp xau nhat (giai oan suy thoai) Donaldson nh ngha so d tien mat rong CBR cua mot doanh nghiep trong ky suy thoai la: CBR = CB0 + FCFR CB0 la so d tien mat vao au ky suy thoai FCFR la cac dong tien t do

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

AMAX Corporation, so d tien mat va cac chng khoan th trng khoang 154 trieu o la. D bao dong tien t do la 210 trieu o la trong ky suy thoai 1 nam. Cau truc von hien tai, gom khoang 32% n, so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai se la 364 trieu o la (154 trieu o la cong vi 210 trieu o la). Gia du rang AMAX ang xem xet mot thay oi trong cau truc von, se lam tang them 280 trieu o la tien lai sau thue hang nam va chi tra cac chi ph tai chnh co nh.

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Ket qua la mot so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai bang: CBR=154 trieu + 210 trieu - 280 trieu = 84 trieu. AMAX phai quyet nh xem so d tien mat d kien 84 trieu o la nay co tao mot khoang cach u an toan (trai em) trong mot ky suy thoai hay khong.

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Neu AMAX, tin rang cac dong tien t do c phan phoi gan (xap x) chuan (xem phan th nhat cua hnh 16.2) vi gia tr d kien trong ky suy thoai mot nam la 210 trieu o la va mot o lech chuan 140 trieu o la, ho co the tnh c xac suat can tien mat neu vay them n mi. Phan phoi xac suat cua so d tien mat cua AMAX (phan th hai cua hnh 16.2) se co cung dang xap x chuan vi mot o lech chuan la 140 trieu o la vi phan phoi xac suat cua cac dong tien t do (phan th nhat cua hnh 16.2).

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Xac suat xay ra = 140 trieu $

- 210

-70

70

210

350

FCE R

210 trieu $

Dong tien t do (FCFR) (trieu $)

490

630

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Xac suat xay ra

=140 trieu$

- 280

-140

140

280

CB R

84 trieu $

420 So d tien mat (CBR) (trieu $)

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat AMAX co the cam thay mc rui ro qua ln. Gia nh mot rui ro can tien mat la 5% trong ky suy thoai mot nam, Tm cac con so cua o lech chuan (z) T phu luc 5 cuoi sach, tm c gia tr cua z la xap x -1,65. Ke tiep, tnh so d tien mat d kien can vao cuoi ky suy thoai mot nam neu rui ro can tien mat c gi mc 5%: CBR = 231.000.000$ Cuoi cung, cong ty ch co the chap nhan them 133 trieu o la cac chi ph tai chnh co nh.

Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat

Xac xuat xay ra

-140

140

280

420

CB R

560 So d tien mat (CBR)(trieu $)

trieu