NGUYN NH HO - V VN HIU

TIP CN H THNG TRONG NGHIN CU MI TRNG V PHT TRIN

NH XUT BN I HC QUC GIA H NI

Gii thiu chung

Vi nt v lch s ca Tip cn H thng Nm 1927 l mt mc thi gian quan trng nht trong lch s t duy hin i: l nm Einstein a ra l thuyt Trng thng nht v nhm khoa hc Copenhagen cng b chnh thc v l thuyt C hc lng t. Theo thuyt C hc lng t, th gii khch quan khng g khc hn l s chuyn ng ca cc lut quark c kch thc 10-18 mt, tuy nhin ci gi l "ht" qum ny l khng tn ti nh nhng vt th, m ch l h qu ca cc mi tng tc gia cc trng phi vt cht. T cc ht" quark, nhng vi h thng u tin c hnh thnh (proton v ntron) sau xut hin ht nhn nguyn t c ng knh 10-14 mt. S kt hp gia ht nhn vi cc electron lm ny sinh cc h thng khc nhau: l cc nguyn t (d = 10-10 mt). Mt h thng gm 2 nguyn t hyr v 1 nguyn t xy xut hin, chnh l phn t nc - H2O mt hp phn c bn ca th gii sng c nhng tnh cht c bit m cc yu t to nn n khng c. Th gii khch quan ngy nay trn Tri t ch bao gm ton l cc h thng c cu trc, tnh cht v quy m rt khc nhau, t nhng h thng v c n gin cho n cc h x hi nhn vn phc tp. Cc h thng xut hin. tin ha, suy thoi, tan r... theo nhng quy lut ring. Tuy nhin, con ngi nhn din v hiu bit v h thng li rt mun. S nhn din cc h thng kh mun mng l h qu ca mt qu trnh lu di m khoa hc kin tr vic chia nh s vt nhn thc (t duy phn tch), t m hnh thnh ra cc lnh vc chuyn ngnh v cc chuyn gia c chuyn mn su v mt lnh vc hp.
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Cc h thng - ngc li - l nhng tng th, ch c th nhn din trn c s phn tch lin ngnh, a ngnh v gian ngnh Nm 1956 nh du s xut hin ca tip cn h thng vi cng trnh ca nh sinh vt hc ngi o c tn l Ludwig von Bertalanffy, Hc thuyt chung v h thng. H thng l mt tng th, duy tr s tn ti bng s tng tc gia cc t phn to nn n . Hc thuyt ca Bertalanffy ch r cch thc ng n m con ngi xy dng khi nim v thc ti xung quanh mnh, ng thi cng l mt tip cn sc so gii quyt cc vn c t ra. Tip cn h thng khng ch s dng kin thc chuyn su ca mt ngnh khoa hc, m cn s dng kin thc a ngnh v lin ngnh. u c s a dng kin thc khoa hc c s dng chng chp trong cng mt h phng php gii quyt cng mt vn , tip cn h thng c ng dng v pht trin. Nhng l do trn cho thy ti sao tip cn h thng li pht trin mnh khi n gn vi lnh vc nghin cu mi trng v pht trin - mnh t a dng i hi ca cc kin thc lin ngnh v a ngnh. Cng trnh ca Clayton v ng nghip, 1997 [7] chnh thc m u cho giai on ny v n cung cp mt b cng c sc so da trn tip cn h thng cho pht trin bn vng. Nhng nn tng khoa hc - gp phn pht trin Tip cn H thng Tip cn H thng, nhiu trng hp cn c gi l T duy H thng, l mt lnh vc mi m v ang c hon thin rt nhanh do tnh thc tin cao ca n. Tip cn H thng khng hnh thnh mt cch n c. Mt s thnh tu khoa hc sau xut hin gp phn cho "Hc thuyt chung v h thng" ca Bertalanffy pht trin. l l thuyt Nhiu lon (chaos) v Hnh hc G gh (fractal geometry).
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Vo u nhng nm 1970, mt s nh khoa hc u, M bt u ch n hin tng mt trt t ca kh quyn, c tnh sng gi ca mt nc, s tng gim s lng c th trong cc qun th sinh vt hoang d, bin ng gi c ca cc mt hng, cc v kt xe trn ng giao thng... y l nhng h ng lc m s tin ha ca n khng th xc nh c bng cc nh lut vt l. Cc h thng ny c lnh cht nhiu lon hoc hn n (chaos), tc l tnh cht c trng cho mt h ng lc m hnh vi ca n trong khng gian pha ph thuc mt cch cc k nhy cm vo cc iu kin rt m nht, rt tn mn ban u. L thuyt Nhiu lon l khoa hc v cc qu trnh ch khng phi v cc trng thi c th, v ci sp hnh thnh ch khng phi ca ci xc lp (Nguyn Ngc Giao, 1998, [2]). L thuyt Nhiu lon c coi l cuc cch mng khoa hc ln ng hng th ba sau thuyt Tng i v C hc lng t thuyt Tng i ph b quan nim v khng gian, thi gian tuyt i; thuyt C hc lng t ph b quan nim v th gii vt cht c th cn, ong, o m; cn thuyt Nhiu lon ph b quan nim v tnh tt nh trong tin ha ca cc h thng (tnh tt nh l tnh cht ca mt h thng ng lc theo thi gian hon ton c th xc nh c nu ta bit c trng thi mt thi im trc thng qua cc nh lut vt l). L thuyt Nhiu lon nh du vic chm dt s phn cch gia cc lnh vc khoa hc khc nhau, n i hi cch nhn th gii nh mt tng th, chnh l bc thang c bn dn n s pht trin mnh ca l thuyt h thng sau ny. L thuyt Nhiu lon c quan h khng kht vi Hnh hc G gh tc l hnh hc v cc hnh dng c trng bng th nguyn thp phn. l nhng hnh dng ln hn mt im nhng nh hn mt on, ln hn mt ng nhng nh hn mt mt, ln hn mt mt nhng nh hn mt khi... T hnh hc g gh, pht trin thnh l thuyt v cc h thng g gh, a chiu vi s th nguyn
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l s thp phn. chnh l hnh nh ca cc h sn xut. Chnh cc h g gh mi l dng tn ti thc tin v to ra s a dng ca mi trng. Cc h thng g gh nm trong khong trung gian gia th gii cc nhiu lon khng kim sot c v th gii c trt t thi qu, cng ng ca hnh hc Euclide. Thut ng g gh (fractal) do Mandelbrot xut ln u nm 1977, hn 20 nm sau khi "Hc thuyt chung v h thng" ra i. Chnh nh l thuyt ca Mandelbrot m l thuyt h thng t mc ch p dng cho sinh hc v sinh thi hc tr nn c kh nng p dng sang cc h thng a chiu ca x hi. y chng ta thy mt quy lut: khng nht thit cc l thuyt nn tng phi xut hin ton b trc mt lnh vc khoa hc mi, chng c th xut hin sau hon thin thm cho l thuyt khoa hc mi ny. Tuy nhin, vic m rng l thuyt h thng sang lnh vc x hi (mi trng v pht trin) cn phi ch i thm s xut hin ca mt h phng php na, l h phng php kin to ch s. Thp nin 1990 c nh du bng s xut hin cc ch s o lng s tin b x hi ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc UNDP. l cc ch s nh HDI (ch s pht trin nhn vn), HPI (ch s ngho nhn vn), CPM ( o ngho tim nng), GDI (ch s pht trin gii) v.v... y l mt h phng php xc nh gn ng cht lng ca cc h thng x hi bng mt s ti thiu ch s nh lng, c o c thng qua mt s t tiu ch c trng, n gin v d xc nh. Cc ch s pht trin ca UNDP m ra phng hng mi nhm o lng cht lng mt h thng x hi a chiu bng mt s t chiu c trng, mi chiu c xc nh qua t l gia mc t c so vi mc k vng. y l mt h phng php c ngha thc tin rt ln: nh gi mt h thng phc tp, hn n bng mt con s n gin, v do m mt h thng khng th qun tr c tr thnh mt h
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thng m nh qun l c th nh hng c. Tm li: l thuyt Nhiu lon, l thuyt v cc h thng g gh v h phng php kin to ch s l nhng hn tng ca s pht trin l thuyt h thng trong lnh vc bo v mi trng v qun tr pht trin hin nay. Tip cn H thng Vit Nam Tp ti liu mng v khng c pht hnh rng ri "V h thng v tinh h thng" ca Phan Dng (1996) [1] c l l ti liu u tin v l thuyt h thng Vit Nam. y l tp ti liu s dng l thuyt H thng lm c s ca sng to khoa hc ch cha nhm ng dng vo cc h thng thc tin. L thuyt H thng c Nguyn nh Ho (1998, 1999, 2002, 2005) [3, 4, 5, 6] s dng nghin cu co h thng chn th gia sc c sng, nui trng thy sn, cc h thng sinh thi nhn vn nhy cm v nh gi cc d n pht trin bng s khung logic. Trn c s ny, mn hc "Tip cn h thng trong nghin cu mi trng v pht trin c a vo ging dy ti khoa Mi Trng, trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H Ni t nm 2002. Qua mi ln ging dy, gio trnh c cp nht v b sung thm trn c s cc nghin cu thc tin cng nh ngun ti liu tham kho mi ngy cng phong ph hn. ng ch c cc ti liu v t duy h thng ca ng dng l thuyt h thng vo qun tr doanh nghip [12, 19]. Nh vy, nhng nm u th k 21 nh du bc pht trin ng dng t ca tip cn h thng vo cc h sn xut, vo nghin cu pht trin. Mi bc pht trin i hi l thuyt h thng phi c hon thin thm v ngy cng c cc nh khoa hc, cc nh qun l ti nguyn, mi trng v cc h sn xut ch rng ri. Cu trc ca gio trnh Gio trnh c cu trc thnh 4 chng
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Chng 1 - i cng v h thng, trnh by khi nim v h thng v tnh cc cht chung ca h thng. Ngi c cn nm vng nhng khi nim c bn chng ny c th i tip vo nhng chng tip theo. Trn i dng mnh mng ca cc khoa hc phn tch, chia nh v xy dng lun xung quanh cc nh lut tt nh, cc khi nim h thng l gii ci tng th, ci nhiu lon... s tr thnh mt thch thc vi ngi c, bi v "t duy h thng l t duy phi truyn thng dnh cho nhng c gi phi truyn thng" (Gharajed8ghi. 2005 [12]). Chng 2 - i cng v Tip cn H thng, trnh by nhng nh hng chung ca tip cn h thng nh l mt cch nhn nhn th gii qua cu trc h thng, th bc, ng lc ca chng. Cc cch tip cn mm v cng, m hnh v m phng, nhng ri ro v nhng im cn lu khi s dng tip cn h thng . . . c trnh by chng ny. Chng 3 - Mt s cng c ca Tip cn H thng trong nghin cu mi truvng v pht trin. y l chng quan trng nht ca gio trnh, cung cp cho ngi c cc cng c c th p dng vo nghin cu cc h thng khc nhau trong lnh vc c con ngi tham gia. Chng 4 - Cc h thng sn xut. Phn ny trnh by cc nghin cu trng hp, s dng tip cn h thng nghin cu cc h sn xut khc nhau khi chn th gia sc c sng vng kh hn, nui trng thy sn, xc lp cc im ti nh c, phng tr dch hi cy trng v.v... Nhng nghin cu trng hp chng ny c th cha thc s in hnh m ch l nhng gi cho ngi c. Phn cng trch nhim gia 2 tc gi ca gio trnh nh sau: V Vn Hiu tham gia son tho mt phn chng 2 v mc 4.6 chng 4. Nguyn inh Ho chu trch nhim bin son ton b phn cn li ca gio trnh. Nhm bin son xin cm n nhng
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nhn xt, gp qu bu ca PGS.TS Nguyn Chu Hi - Vin Kinh t v Quy hoch Thy sn. B thu sn v ca TS. Nguyn Xun C, khoa Mi trng, trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H Ni. Nh nhng gp sc so ca hai nh khoa hc ni trn m bn tho gio trnh c hon thin ln rt nhiu. S bit n su sc ca nhm bin son cng xin c gi ti Th.S Trn Phong, Gim c S Khoa hc Cng ngh tnh Ninh Thun, v nhng h tr qu bu m S to iu kin cho nhm bin son trong vic ng dng tip cn h thng vo nghin cu mt s vn bc xc v mi trng v pht trin ca Ninh Thun - Khng c nhng nghin cu ng dng ny, ni dung ca chng 2 v 3 s ngho nn i rt nhiu. Nhm tc gi mong nhn c kin ph bnh ca cc ng nghip v ngi c c th tip tc hon thin gio trnh trong tng lai. Nguyn inh He

Chng 1 i Cng v h thng

1.1. nh ngha H thng l mt tng th, duy tr s tn ti bng s tng tc gia cc t phn to nn n (L.v.Bertalallffy, 1956). Cc yu t ca mt h thng thng tham gia vo nhiu h thng khc. iu ny i hi mi mt thnh t phi thc hin tt vai tr ca mi h thng m n ng vai. Tip cn h thng khng hon ton ng ngha vi phng php phn tch h thng v ngoi phn phng php (cn ang c pht trin v hon thin), tip cn h thng cn cp n vn v l thuyt h thng cng nh phng hng ng dng l thuyt ny trong thc tin. 1.2. Cc c tnh v chc nng ca h thng Tip cn h thng nhn mnh vo vic xc nh v m t mi lin kt gia cc yu t cu to nn h thng v tng tc gia chng. Mt h thng l mt tp hp cc thnh t tng tc vi nhau. S thay i mt thnh t s dn n s thay i mt thnh t khc, t dn n thay i thnh t th ba... Bt c mt tng tc no trong h thng cng va c tnh nguyn nhn, va c tnh iu khin. Rt nhiu tng tc c th lin kt vi nhau thnh chui tng tc nguyn nhn - kt qu. 1.2.1. Chc nng ca h thng
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Mt h thng thng c nhiu chc nng, trong c t nht mt chc nng chnh v nhiu chc nng ph. V d mt h ca sng va c chc nng thot l, vn ti thy, nui trng thy sn hoc cp nc... Cc thnh t to nn h thng cng c nhng chc nng ring thuc hai nhm c bn: - Chc nng kim sot (gy bin i thnh t khc). - Chc nng b kim sot (b cc thnh t khc gy bin i). 1.2.2. Mng phn hi Cn c gi l hin tng a nhn t (Multi - factionality). l mt chui tng tc nguyn nhn - kt qu c th an xen ln nhau. iu c ngha l mi thnh t ca h thng c th khi u mt chui nguyn nhn - kt qu an xen, lm cho mi thnh t trong mng li tr nn c kh nng gy nh hng gin tip ln chnh n. Cu trc ny c gi l mng li phn hi. Mt h thng c th cha nhiu mng li phn hi, mt s hay tt c cc mng phn hi ny an xen vi nhau, trong mt thnh t bt k hot ng va vi chc nng kim sot, va vi chc nng b kim sot. Hnh vi ca mi thnh t, v th, l kt qu ca hng lot cc yu t cnh tranh. Mng phn hi c gi l mng kch ng (hay tch cc), khi tc ng phn hi li thnh t ban u c tnh kch thch ngha l lm cho thnh t y khi pht mt chui cc s kin tng t tip theo; Mng phn hi s c gi l trit tiu giun hm, tiu cc) khi tc ng phn hi tr li thnh t ban u c tnh km hm, ngha l c xu th km hm thnh t ban u khng cho n khi pht chui s kin tng t tip theo. 1.2.3. Tnh tri L c tnh quan trng nht ca h thng. Tnh tri l tnh
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cht c mt cp h thng m khng c cc h thng cp thp hn n hoc cc thnh t to ra h thng, v d chic ng h c th ch gi chnh xc trong khi tng b phn ca n khng c kh nng ny. 1.2.4. Tnh kim sot th bc Th bc l cc cp phc tp ca mt h thng. Mt h thng lun lun c to thnh t cc h thng con (bc di), v chnh n li l thnh t ca mt h thng ln hn (thng h - bc cao hn). V th h thng lun c tnh th bc. Kim sot th bc l s p t chc nng mi, ng vi mi th bc, so vi cc th bc thp hn. S kim sot c tnh kch ng (khi mt s hot ng c hot ha), hoc c tnh km hm (khi mt s hot ng tr nn tr tr). Mt trong nhng thch thc ca cc h thng mi trng l s t km hm qu ng (to ra kh nng thch ng km trc nhng hon cnh mn v s t kim sot hi hi (gim nng sut ca h thng, c th to ra ri ro do cc qu trnh ni lc ca h thng vt ra khi ranh gii h thng, gy tan r h). 1.2.5. Tnh lan truyn thng tin Lan truyn thng tin nhm gy tc ng iu chnh v phn hi. Thng tin c lan truyn t tc nhn iu khin n tc nhn b iu khin thc hin chc nng kim sot ca tc nhn iu khin. Thng tin cng cn phi lan truyn ngc t tc nhn b iu khin n tc nhn iu khin lm cho tc nhn iu khin c kh nng gim st s phc tng ca tc nhn b iu khin, t c th iu chnh hot ng gim st trong tng lai. Mng phn hi kch ng v km hm, do , l ct li ca qu trnh lan truyn. Nu tc nhn b iu khin khng to c s p ng ph hp trc tn hiu cui cng pht ra t tc nhn iu khin, th tc nhn iu khin phi pht li tn hiu hoc tng cng tn hiu. Nu tc nhn
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b iu khin p ng thi qu th tc nhn iu khin c th phi gi nhng tn hiu iu chnh km hm bt. 1.2.6. Tnh v tnh hn lon Tnh l s n nh ca mt trng thi gip h thng tch khi cc trng thi khc. Khi trong trng thi . mt h thng c xu th duy tr nguyn trng cho n khi c mt tc ng bn ngoi mnh hoc mt bin i bn trong mnh chuyn h thng ra khi trng thi ban u. Lc c th rt mnh hoc rt yu. Mt h thng c th vn hnh qua mt lot trng thi , ln lt vt qua tng trng thi mt (mi trng thi i hi h phi dng mt khong thi gian). Tnh hn lon l hnh vi hn lon khng th d bo c xy ra bn trong mt h xc nh. Nhng hnh vi nh vy cc k nhy cm vi cc thay i nh, khin cho ch c th d bo c cc hnh vi di hn ca h mt cch khng my chnh xc. Bertalanfyy (1969) l ngi u tin xy dng cc khi nim v h c lp v h m [9]. S phn bit gia h c lp v h m ph thuc vo tnh cht nhit ng lc hc. y cn phi nhc li mt trong nhng quy lut vt l quan trng nht, l nh lut th hai v nhit ng lc hc. nh lut ny cho rng, "Nu khng c cung cp thm nng lng, ton b h thng s chuyn t trng thi c trt t sang trang thi hn lon". y l mt nh lut ct li ca l thuyt H thng. R rng l, trong s tt c cc cch c th c dng sp xp cc t phn to ra h thng, bt k h thng l mt bng hoa hay mt chic my tnh, th cc dng hnh thi - vn l cu trc c trt t nht v to ra cc h thng con c chc nng ring bit - li l khng in hnh nht, v phn ln cc dng hnh thi thc ra chng c g hn l nhng m hn n ca cc phn t ring bit. nh lut th hai ch r rng, theo thi gian, ngay c cc h thng c trt t cao cng s b xung cp thnh cc h thng c trt t thp hn. Lng "v trt t trong mt h thng
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c th c o lng v c gi l entropy ca h thng". nh lut th hai ni rng, entropy ca bt c h thng no khng c cung cp nng lng, chc chn s tng theo thi gian. iu gii thch ti sao vt g ri cng s b phn hy v b tiu vong. S sng l mt qu trnh gim entropy. H thng sng c kh nng xy dng, ti sinh v to ra trt t, l do cho rng s sng c th tn ti l bi v tri t lun lun dc mt tri cung cp nng lng. Chnh nng lng Mt li cho php entropy gim i hn l tng ln. Xut pht t phn tch trn, chng ta s phn tch s khc bit gia cc h c lp v h m. H c lp c nhng thnh phn khng thay i, khng tng tc vi mi trng ngoi. Chng cui cng s t n mt trng thi cn hng, nhng lun vn ng theo hng c entropy cao hn v khng c cung cp thm nng lng. Ni nh th c ngha l cc h c lp thng t n mt im m ti s khng c thay i g na. H m, ngi li, trao i lin tc vi mi trng ca n. S trao i ny bao gm vt cht, nng lng v thng tin. H m c th t n mt trng thi n nh tu thuc cao mi quan h trao i lin tc vi mi trng c duy tr, khin cho h c kh nng to ra v duy tr trng thi c entropy thp. iu ny c ngha rng mt s h m c th duy tr tnh ton vn ca chng mc d iu lun lun km theo s gia tng enlropy u . 1.2.7. Cn bng h thng Cn bng l s n nh. Vi h thng m l s cn bng ng. Ton b cc h thng sng u l h m. Tt nhin mi trng trong cc h thng sng tn ti, t n khng bao gi hon ton n nh, do cc h thng sng buc phi c trao i n nh hp l vi cc ngun ti nguyn vn lun bin ng theo
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thi gian. iu ny c ngha rng cc h thng sng v cc th bc sinh thi ca cc h thng sng phi duy tr cc qu trnh lan truyn v kim sot sao cho chng c th gim st v ng x vi s xo trn ca mi trng sng thc t. Cn ch rng vic kim sot c hiu qu, trong mt mi trng dy bin ng, i hi h thng phi c mt c ch kim sot vi nhiu kiu ng x thch hp vi cc kiu a dng ca thng tin mi trng. Hin tng ny i khi c gi l nh lut v cc bin i cn thit. Cc bin i ny c gi l cn thit duy tr ranh gii/ ngng an ton ca h thng. 1.3. Xc nh h thng C mt s bc cn tun t im qua khi xy dng m hnh ca mt h thng: 1- Xc nh cc yu t gn kt ca mt h thng v xc nh cc nguyn tc gn kt. Mt s h thng chc nng c t cht trn mt c s c bit, c th c cc thnh t khc nhau tu thuc vo mc tiu ca h thng. 2- Xc nh cc c ch kim sot, nh m h thng duy tr c s gn b gia cc yu t cng nh khong gi tr m cc c ch vn hnh. Cc h thng sinh thi v mi trng thng c c trng bng tnh rm r, vn thng dng nhiu cch kim sot khc nhau. V d h thng mi trng c cc cch duy tr cn bng: hng dn, ch ti, kinh t, quy hoch, v.v... 3- Xc nh ranh gii h. Ranh gii h quyt nh cc ngun vo l ngun ra ca h, cng nh ngng an ton ca h. 4- Xc nh cc phn h ca h, hoc cc thng h ca h (thng h l mt h thng cp bc cao hn m h ang xt l mt phn h ca n). Khng c mt s phn loi h thng no c coi l khun
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mu mc d thng cc h thng cng ging nh h thng kinh t vy. i khi ngi ta phn bit ra cc h thng sng v h thng khng sng, h thng tru tng v h thng c th, h m v h c lp. Cng c th chia thnh cc h c s, h iu hnh, h mc tiu v h kim sot. Cc h thng c gp thnh 5 nhm l: (1). Cc h t nhin. (2). Cc h c kh (my mc). (3). Cc h tru tng ton hc). (4). Cc h nhn vn. (5). Cc h huyn o (cc h ngoi tri thc). Cc h thng thuc cc nhm trn y thuc cc kiu hon ton khc nhau. c bit cc h 2 - 3 v 4 li hon ton khc vi cc h t nhin. 5. Xc nh chc nng. Xc nh chc nng chnh v cc chc nng ph ca h thng bng cch tr li cc cu hi: h thng c nhng vai tr g, c mc tiu g trong thng h. 1.4. M hnh ha cc h thng Nhn chung, mt m hnh tt phi l m hnh r tin v c tnh d bo cao. iu c ngha l m hnh phi bao gm tt c cc thnh t c ngha, bao trm mi khong gi tr v phn nh xc thc hnh vi thc t ca h thng, ng thi phi loi b cc thnh t khng c gi tr v khng thch hp. Mt vn quan trng khi m hnh ha h thng l lm th no xc nh cc thnh t ph hp. Thng khng th c c cc t s i vi tt c cc thnh t cho vic m hnh ha. Do , ngi ta thng phi lm vic ch vi cc thnh t c xc nh. Sau , cn lm r mi thnh t c vai tr g trong h thng,
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iu ny cng rt kh. Kt qu l cc thnh t c th c tng quan phi tuyn, hoc c tng quan gy khc do t bin tnh cht cc ngng hoc thm ch l tng quan chm tr (li). Ngoi ra, s liu nhiu khi khng chnh xc khin cho kt qu b nhiu. C 4 phng din c bn nh gi m hnh: Tnh thng nht v cu trc. M hnh phi phn nh cu trc c bn ca h thng, cu trc phi phn nh cc yu t, mi lin kt tng h v mng phn hi tn ti trong thc t. Tnh thng nht v hnh vi. M hnh phi c hnh vi cng mt kiu nh h thc t, biu hin cng mt dng nhiu lon, ngng, tnh khng n nh, bin i, trng thi cn bng... St thc t. M hnh phi phn nh ging nh h thc t, c cng cc thng s v iu kin, c tnh thc tin, c tnh ph hp a phng. D p dng. M hnh phi tr li c cc cu hi t ra, cung cp c thng tin c gi tr. M hnh h tuyn tnh thng cung cp cc c tnh kh chnh xc ca mt h thng thng qua mt b phng trnh phn nh hnh vi ca h thng. V d cc m hnh kinh t kinh in c th gm hng trm phng trnh. Mt trong nhng c trng ca m hnh phi tuyn, ngc li, l ch ng lc c bn ca h i khi c thu gn trong rt t, i khi ch 2 3 phng trnh. 1.4.1. Hnh vi ca h thng ng lc Cc h thng thch ng hoc ng lc v d nh thi tit, qu trnh tin ha, hoc vn hnh th trng . . . to ra nhng vn mi ca m hnh ha. Rt kh m hnh ha v d bo hnh vi ca nhng h thng phc tp nh vy. Cho n by gi vn cha c c cc cng c v k thut cn thit cho mc tiu ny. Tuy nhin
16

nhn chung, c th thy rng kiu lin kt gia cc yu t ca mt h ng lc tp trung vo vic xc nh hnh vi ca h thng . Hnh vi ca mt h ng lc thng gm 4 nhm nh sau: Nhm 1: Gn kt nu h "ng bng" do s t kim sot qu mc. Nhm 2: nh k nu h vn hnh qua mt s chu k xc nh. Nhm 3: Hn lon nu h l khng th xc nh d bt c mc tiu thc tin no. iu ny cng c th ny sinh cc h thng vn tun theo mt b xc nh cc quy tc - c gi l "s hn lon c xc nh". Bt k s hn lon l c xc nh hay thc t khng c xc nh, th hnh vi c th ca loi h thng ny cng khng th no d bo c. Nhm 4: Gn hn lon, nu h nm v tr gia n nh v bin ng. y l mt i hp nhng rt quan trng nm gia cc nhm hnh vi 2 v 3. Cc loi sinh vt thng c hnh vi nhm 4. Mt h thng ch c mt vi mi lin kt gia cc yu t s biu l hnh vi theo nhm 1 . Nu mt h thng nh vy b xo trn trong mt phn ca h, th hu qu thng c tnh cc b v tc ng s khng lan truyn trong ton h. Mt h thng c mc gn kt a dng gia cc yu t th c hnh vi nhm 3. Bt c s bin ng no cng lan to ton h thng, c th dn n im m h tr nn hn lon. Nhm 4 c cch ng x kh d bo hn. Nu mt h thng nhm 4 b xo trn, th hoc s t phn ng, hoc phn ng s rt rng ri, thm ch ri lon ty theo iu kin ni ti ca h thng lc . Cc h thng c tnh tri, l hnh vi ca ton h m cc thnh phn ring bit ca n khng c, cc thnh phn ny cng c hnh vi m cc yu t nh to ra chng khng c. Mt nt c trng ca
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cc h ng lc l chng c th c sp xp (c iu khin) v n nh. Tnh n nh c th l tnh tri ca h, mt chc nng ch ny sinh do tng tc gia cc yu t trong h. V d mt h sinh thi c th duy tr trng thi n nh do s tng tc gia cc loi c mt trong h. Trong x hi, hnh vi tng hp ca cc cng ty, ngi tiu dng, th trng c th l n nh mc d quyt nh mua bn ca cc c nhn to nn cng ng c th khng d on c. 1.4.2. Cc h thch ng phc tp C mt nhm gm cc h thng phc tp rt c bit v rt quan trng, c gi l cc h thng thch ng. c im duy nht phn bit loi h thng ny vi cc h thng thuc kiu khc l ch, cc h thch ng, bng cch no , tng tc vi mi trng v thay i hnh vi ty theo s thay i ca mi trng. V d cc h thng sng l nhng h thch ng. Chng c mt kho lu tr cc hnh vi gip cho chng thch nghi vi s thay i ca mi trng. S thch ng ny c th din ra qua nhiu th h, hoc thm ch ch trong phm vi cuc i ca mt c th. Tt nhin c nhng bin i mi trng qu nhanh v qu mnh lit khin cc loi hoc c th khng ti no thch ng c. iu ny thng dn n s hy dit. Chnh ci gi l "kho lu tr hnh vi" hoc quy trnh ng x to iu kin cho cc sinh vt ny thch ng, nhng nhiu khi cng khng li so vi s bin ng nhanh ca mi trng. 1.5. Tin ha v thch ng ca h thng Tin ha v thch ng l hai hin tng c bit quan trng v lin kt cht ch vi nhau, rt ph bin trong cc kiu h thng. Nh sinh vt hc tin ha Richard Dawkins (1982, 1988) khi qut yu t c bn ca tin ha l "bn sao tch cc" . tng ca ng nh sau: Mt "bn sao" l bt c h thng no c kh nng t ti to hoc c ti to. Qu trnh ti to ny khng nht thit i
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hi phi hon ho, tuyt i khng c sai st, bi v trn thc t khng c qu u ut ti to no l khng c sai st. V d in hnh cho cc bn sao l cc c th sinh vt v c quan di truyn ca chng. Cc bn photocopy, bn fax cng l mt loi bn sao. Dawkins coi cc n v thng tin cng l bn sao v khi giao tip gia con ngi vi nhau, thng tin c chuyn giao. Bn sao thng tin c Dawkins gi l "me me" (t ch memo memory). Sau khi xy dng khi nim v bn sao", Dawkins tin ti phn loi chng thnh 2 nhm: nhm ch ng v nhm b ng tu thuc vo cht lng ca bn sao tc ng n chnh xc ca qu trnh sao chp nh th no. Gi l cc bn sao ch ng v cc en tt thng c sao chp tt trong cc c th con chu, lm cho th h con chu duy tr v ci thin c kh nng sinh tn v trnh c k sn mi, kim mi tt hn hoc c sc hp dn hn vi bn tnh. Meme cng l loi bn sao ch ng, v trong qu trnh truyn thng, cc thng tin tt, c ch c chn lc v truyn b tt hn cc thng tin v ch. Trong khi , mt bn photocopy li l loi bn sao b ng v d n c ni dung g cng khng th quyt nh cht lng bn copy. Dawkins phn loi cc bn sao thnh hai nhm ngn hn v di hn ty thuc vo vic chng c kh nng c sao chp mi hay khng. Cc t bo sng ca con ngi (tr t bo sinh sn) l nhm ngn hn, d rng chng c th c sao chp trong thi gian mt i ngi, nhng ch c t bo sinh dc mi c ti to trong cc th h sau. Meme v bn copy thuc loi di hn v chng c th c ti sinh qua rt nhiu th h. Bi v khng c qu trnh sao chp no l hon ho tuyt i, do h thng qua mi ln sao chp li xut hin cc bin d (cc
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sai st do nhn bn). Mc d a phn cc bin d l gy hi cho cc th h sau, nhng mt s trng hp cng ny sinh nhng bin d c li, iu ny ch xy ra trong trng hp nhn bn ch ng. Nu bn sao thuc nhm di hn, th rt c th cc bin d c li s c tch ly nng cp cht lng ca cc th h mi. chnh l hin tng tin ha. Tin ha gip cho tng cng kh nng sinh sn mt s lng ng con chu kho mnh v c kh nng sinh tn. Trong trng hp cc h thng c kh nng nhn bn (ti sinh), c hai t phn tch bit ca "tnh chnh xc sinh sn" l: - Tnh hiu qu ca qu trnh nhn bn, c th tin ha c. - Bt c yu t no lm cho qu trnh nhn bn c thch hp hn, gip cho vic tng cng kh nng bt mi, thch nghi vi mi trng, thu ht bn tnh... Cn phi hiu rng tnh tin ha chnh xc ca mt c th sinh vt l khng bt bin, m thay i do t thn tin ha, v gp phn lm thay i cc thng s mi trng trong qu trnh nhn bn xy ra. iu dn n s xut hin rt nhiu bin th tin ha. Trong c c hin tng chy ua v kh khi vt d v con mi cng phi tin ha sn mi hoc chy trn tt hn... Tin ha cng nhm thch ng, nhng l mt dng thch ng quan trng v c bit ca qu trnh thch ng rng ri hn. Khng ging nh tin ha, thch ng ni chung khng i hi hin tng nhn bn di hn ch ng. V d qu trnh hc tp con ngi v cc ng vt khc, s pht trin c bp, cc qu trnh sinh hc nhm duy tr s cn bng xy ca kh quyn, s mc ni ca cc mng phn hi n nh v.v... Tt nhin, thch ng cng c nt tng t nh tin ha ch n cng khng yu cu cc nguyn tc t chc cao hn, tri thc (nhn thc) cao hn v s c ch nh sn. C tin ha ln thch
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ng u l nhng "qu trnh m. S nh gi ct li ca mt h thch ng l tnh n nh hn l tnh nhn bn (sao chp) chnh xc. n nh gi mt vai tr rt quan trng. V cc h thng thng khng c lp, cc bin d lin tc c nhp vo khi h b nhiu lon do nhng nh hng bn ngoi. Mt vi trng thi ca h c tnh n nh hn cc trng thi khc. iu ny c th l do chng khng hm cha cc ng lc ni sinh cho s thay i, hoc bi v chng bao gm cc c ch kim sot c tnh chu k. Cng cn c th l do chng c khuynh hng khng c li nhng nh hng bn ngoi. C ch ca tnh c to ra do cc hin tng phn hi trit tiu, cng nh cc hin tng khng c s ln vi nhng tc ng bn ngoi. C s lin h cht ch gia tnh thch ng v tin ha: - Kh nng tin ha i khi cng c th gip tng thch ng, v d no ngi tin ha lm tng cng kh nng hc tp. - Cc h thch ng phc tp c th hm cha cc phn h tin ha. Cui cng, "s tin ha" ca cc trng thi trong mt s h thng thch ng, c ngha l mi trng thi c th "nhn bn" mt cch khng hon ho hnh thnh mt trng thi tip theo ca h thng. Theo ngha khng chnh tc ny, trng thi h cng s c phn bit thnh cc trng thi ch ng, di hn... Nh vy, c th nh ngha lnh thch ng ca mt h thng l s chn lc, sp xp li cc hnh vi v c cu t chc ca h thng nhm thch nghi tt vi mt kiu mi trng nht nh. S chn lc v sp xp ny l nhng bin i ni ti, khng lm tng tnh phc tp, khng lm nng cp quy m t chc v khng tng qu mc trt t sn c ca h thng. Tri li, tnh tin ha ca h thng l s thay i v cht ca h thng, nh hng vo vic xay dng mt h thng c cu trc
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trnh cao hn, phc tp hn, trt t hn, c do lu tr hnh vi a dng hn, v hiu qu ca chng l to ra mt c hi thch ng rng ri hn. Thch ng to c hi cho mt h thng n nh, cn tin ha to c hi cho mt h thng thay i theo hng hon thin hn thch ng li hn. Mt v d kinh in l d c bin i hnh thnh hng ngn loi c thch ng tt vi nhng sinh cnh khc nhau, nhng ch c loi c vy tay di chuyn dc trn mt bn v c kh nng hp th xy trong khng kh bng chic bong bng b bin i thnh mt loi phi n gin, mi c kh nng tin ha thnh ng vt lng c sau ny. Mt h thng nhn bn thch ng lun lun lu tr cc bin d. Mt s t cc bin d s l mm mng ca tin ha. V th mt h thng c kh nng tin ha lun lun phi c nhiu lon, lun lun c entropy mt gi tr m h thng c th kim sot c. Nhng h thng n nh cao, c entropy thp thng l mt h thng c tnh thch ng hn l c tim nng tin ha. Cc h thng "ng bng" l nhng h thng khng c kh nng tin ha. V th, c mt nguyn tc trong iu khin h thng l "khng gn kt qu cht to tin cho nhng thay i". Xc nh tim nng "khng gn kt qu cht" cn thng qua nhng hnh vi, nhng cu trc "lch chun" khng gy hi cho h thng. Nguyn tc "phn quyn v u quyn" cho cc n v qun l cp di trong qun l mi trng chnh l khung php l cho php cc thnh t ca mt h thng pht huy tnh ch ng v sng to. Cng t m hnh thnh cc nguyn tc khc nh "phi tp trung ha", "x hi ha" trong qun l mi trng.

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1.6. Cc ngng ca h thng v h sinh thi ton cu Ton b cc h thng sinh thi v sinh hc u c tnh co dn (n hi). Chng c th thng c mt s loi sc p hoc ph hoi v duy tr kh nng t phc hi. Ngay c khi mt s yu t n l ca h b ph hu, chng cng thng c khi phc khin cho h thng c duy tr. Tuy nhin s bnh trng hot ng nhn sinh dn n vic ph hy c cc yu t ca h hoc ton b h, lm gim tnh n hi ca h. C mt s qu trnh sinh hc c vai tr duy tr cc iu kin sinh thi hin ti. V d hot ng sinh hc gp phn duy tr khi lng, t l v cn bng cc loi kh to nn kh quyn Tri t. T l cc loi kh trong kh quyn Tri t hin nay l trng thi khng cn bng ha hc, v kh quyn c duy tr nh vy l do mng phn hi sinh hc. Nu cc qu trnh sinh hc chm dt, kh quyn ca Tri t dn dn s tin n trng thi cn bng ha hc khin cho khng c dng sng no c th tn ti. Cc qu trnh sinh hc l nhng qu trnh ng lc, phn ng trc mt mi trng y bin ng. V d, khong 4,5 t nm trc khi h Mt Tri mi hnh thnh, nhit bc x t Mt Tri ch c 70% so vi ngy nay. T by n nay, lng nhit to ra t Mt Tri tng thm 30%. Ch cn mi bn cu thu c lng nhit t Mt Tri bt i 2% to ra kh hu bng h. Nu kh hu Tri t ch do nhit Mt Tri quyt nh, th nhit b mt Tri t s c gi tr m (<0oC) cho n cch ngy nay khong 2 t nm, tc l bao gm c 1,5 t nm u tin ca lch s s sng. Tuy nhin thc ra kh hu trn Tri t khng c bin i nhiu trong sut thi k ny. Tri t khng h ng bng ngay c khi n tip nhn mt lng nhit Mt Tri t hn ngy nay 30% [9]. L do c bn l ch kh quyn Tri t c c tnh "nh knh", mc d hiu ng ny rt bin i tu theo thnh phn ca kh quyn. V d vo thi gian Tin Cambri (cch ngy nay trn 550
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triu nm), kh quyn Tri t c khong: 19 % N2 0,1% O2 98% CO2 Trong khi kh quyn ngy nay c gn 79% N2, gn 21% O2 v 0,03% CO2. Chnh CO2 v mt s loi kh khc (NH3) hp th bc x hng ngoi pht ra t Tri t v do km hm nhit thot vo khong khng V Tr, to ra hiu ng nh knh nguyn thu. Nhng dng sng nguyn thy ca Tri t hp th C, N v H ra kh quyn. C v N c lu tr trong c th sinh vt ri lng ng di y bin di dng cc mn b hu c (xc cht ca sinh vt) ng thi NH3 b phn hy, gii phng H to thnh nc hoc gia nhp vo kh quyn. Nu khng c c ch kim sot, s xut hin s thiu ht CO2 trong kh quyn, lm cho nhit s gim i, to ra kh hu bng h. Bng tuyt c tnh phn x cao cng lm nhit mt t gim i, thm ch di Oo C. Tuy nhin may mn thay hin tng khng xy ra. CH4 xut hin gip gia tng hiu ng nh knh. S bng pht cc vi sinh vt nguyn thy mu sm cng gip cho vic hp th nhit. S duy tr cn bng xy trong kh quyn ngy nay l mt trong nhng qu trnh sinh hc c bit quan trng i vi nhn loi. Kh quyn hin nay cha khong 21% xy. Gi s hm lng xy tng n 25%, th ch cn mt tia la nh cng t chy ngay c c ti v g t lnh, ton b nhin liu ha thch trn Tri t s chy ht. Nhng nu hm lng xy gim i, th kh nng sn xut ca cc dng sinh vt cn a kh s suy gim ng k. Sinh vt bin c th s chu tc ng hn v i dng cn tng tr nhiu xy ho tan, tuy nhin nu hm lng xy trong kh quyn gim mnh th ri s n lc nc bin cng tr nn thiu xy v sinh vt bin s b hu dit hng lot, ging nh thm ha
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 tng xy ra vo ranh gii gia k Pecmi v k Triu (250 triu nm trc), tiu dit 95% tng s loi trn Tri t. Tuy nhin cng c c mng phn hi tch cc. V d nu nhit tng lm tan bng h, th phn x ca Tri t s gim i, iu li thc y nhit cng tng thm. Vn tr nn phc tp v a dng hn nu hai hay nhiu yu t c quan h thun nghch tch cc, s tng tin ca mt yu t s gy ra s tng tin ca yu t khc v ngc li. Mng phn hi tch cc nhiu khi b bao vy trong mt mng phn hi tiu cc rng hn to ra mi cn bng tng th. Cng c khi mng tch cc mt khi khi ng s vn hnh hoc l cho n khi hin tng phn hi tch cc tr nn bo ho, hoc cho n khi t thn h thng b bin dng. 1.7. Tnh n nh ca h thng Ni chung, h thng cng phc tp, cc h thng phn hi cng an xen, th cc h thng cng kho mnh v cng c kh nng chng li s bin i tt hn. Trn thc t, cc h thng phc tp c tnh n nh cao hn. Mt l do minh chng cho iu l mt s h thng phc tp (v d cc h thng sinh hc) s dng cc cch kim sot a din ch khng phi cch n gin, v v th c nhiu c hi sng st hn. Tng t nh vy, s a dng gen to cho h sinh thi c kh nng thch ng tt hn i vi sc p mi trng, a dng vn ha cng gip cho x hi bn vng hn. Cc h phc tp thng thng tin ha l cc h n gin hn. Tnh phc tp s pht trin nu to ra s thch ng u th hn th h i trc. Cc h thng phc tp hn ch c kh nng sinh tn nu h thc s kho mnh, v thc t chng phi chu ng nhiu can thip hn trong qu trnh tn ti. Mt s vn cn lu . Cc h sinh thi khu vc v ton cu bao gi cng nm trong cc ngng an ton, bn ngoi ngng, h s bin i t
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ti v tr cn bng ng lc mi. V vy nu b khai thc qu mc, rt c th cc h sinh thi khu vc hoc thm ch ton cu s tri qua giai on chuyn tip sang mt trng thi t thun li hn i vi con ngi. c rt nhiu v d v tc ng nhn sinh gy bin ng su sc cc h sinh thi khu vc khin cho cuc sng ca con ngi gp kh khn hoc khng th tip din c, v d s nhim ha cht hay phng x, sa mc ha, axt ha, nhim mn... Hy cn cha r l hot ng nhn sinh no khin cho h sinh thi ton cu chuyn sang trng thi khng th tip tc tn ti c: Pht x kh nh knh? Pht x CFC lm thng tng zon? Hay l bng n dn s? Mt s h sinh thi tr nn km n nh hn khi b lm ngho i hoc b phn r mnh so vi cc h thuc th h trc. Cc h sinh thi b phn r ti im m chng chuyn sang mt pha khng n nh, s c xu th bin i cho n khi chng t c trng thi cn bng mi. Vic t n trng thi cn bng ny c th dn n nhng mt mt tip tc kh kim sot. R rng rng cc hot ng nhn sinh ang gy bin ng su sc n cc h sinh thi v cc h thng khc trong sinh quyn v kh quyn. Mt s nhng bin ng ny l rt rng ln, mt s ang din ra lc khin cho khng c qu trnh tin ha hay thch ng theo kp. Nu mc tc ng mi trng, bao gm c vic gim a dng en, cn tip din vi lc ny, c nhiu kh nng tnh bt n sinh thi ton cu v khu vc s cn tng ln. Con ngi v x hi phi i mt vi cuc i khng hong v mi trng vt qu tm mi pht minh cng ngh v trnh
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 qun l x hi. 1.8. Ri ro ca h thng Tt c cc m hnh v hnh vi ca cc h phc tp, v d cc h thng mi trng hoc h thng kinh t, hoc s tng tc gia hai loi ny, l khng bao gi chnh xc v khng chc chn, hoc rt hn ch v phm vi. Nhng hn ch v s khng chc chn ny to ra ri ro. Ri ro h thng l nhng hnh vi ca h thng ngoi d tnh ca chng ta (nh phn tch), xut pht t thuc tnh bt nh ca h thng. L do: - S hiu bit v cc h thng ny cha hon ho. - S hiu bit v hnh vi ca cc h thng phc tp l cha ton din. - Hnh vi ca cc h thng phc tp, t nht cng ti mt s din tch ca khng gian pha l khng xc nh c. iu ny c ngha l hnh vi ca nhng h thng nh th ch c th m hnh ha theo xc sut, trong mt phm vi no y, hoc trong khong thi gian rt hp. Ton b nhng nh gi ny c p dng cho cc h phc tp, v d cc h mi trng, x hi v kinh t, vn to ra th gii m chng ta ang sng. iu c ngha l cn phi nh gi cc sai st hoc ri ro i lin vi tt c cc kt qu c d bo. Vic tnh ton cc ri ro t n i km vi cc sai st. Nhng ch mp m nh vy c th l kh rng, v c th nh hng n cc kt qu ca cc quyt sch. Ngoi ra, mi kt qu li c th cha nhng ri ro khc nhau tu theo s phn b khc nhau v chi ph v li ch. iu c ngha l cn phi xem xt v mt k thut v chnh tr trong bt c php phn tch no v xc sut v ri ro.
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C nhng vn k thut i km vi vic nh gi ri ro, k c i vi cc h thng nhn to vn c ci l d bit r. Trong trng hp cc h thng t nhin phc tp v thng khng c hiu r, vic nh gi ri ro thc s l kh khn. 1.9. Phi tuyn v im ti hn Phn bit gia h phi tuyn v h tuyn tnh l vn rt quan trng. Tuy nhin trong t nhin, h tuyn tnh ch l nhng trng hp hn hu. Thng thng, do hu qu ca sc , nhiu h thng c t nhin v nhn to thng bin i theo qu o ch S (Hnh 1) gm 5 giai on:

1. Giai on : hu nh khng tng trng (tuyn tnh). 2. Tng trng theo hm m. 3. Tng trng theo hm tuyn tnh. 4. Bo ha: mc tng trng gim dn. 5. Hu nh khng tng trng (tuyn tnh). im ti hn l im m k t h thay i t bin v hnh vi. V d im bt u sinh trt nu ta tng dn gc nghing ca sn dc. im bt u xung t nu tng dn mc mu thun trong cng ng. im phn nhnh l mt dng c bit ca im ti hn, ti h thay i hnh vi mt cch quyt lit (mnh m). Tp hp cc im ti hn to thnh ngng an ton ca h thng.
28

K t ngng an lon, h thng chuyn sang giai on s c. 1.10. Khng gian pha v chuyn pha Vn ct li ca tnh bn vng c th dc din t bng thut ng khng gian pha". Khng gian pha l mt khng gian tru tng c s chiu bng lng cc tham s cn thit m t trng thi ca mt h ng lc. S chiu ca khng gian pha c th l s nguyn hoc s thp phn. Trng hp s chiu thp phn ta c mt khng gian g gh, cn gi l khng gian Fractal. Mt im trong khng gian pha biu din trng thi ca h mt thi im chn. Khi h tin ha, im ny v ln trong khng gian pha mt quy o phc tp. Khng th kho st khng gian pha qu nhiu chiu, ngi ta kho st trong mt h ta phng 2 chiu, ng vi mt cp tham s c la chn. Mt phng ny c tn l mt phng Poincar. chng 3, chng ta s ni n mt phng SAM cho php kho st a chiu cng mt lc, nhng mt phng ch phn nh hin trng ca h thng ti mt thi im nht nh. SAM thiu chiu thi gian. Mt h thng cc k phc tp, v d Tri t ca chng ta gm nhiu phn h phc tp tng tc vi nhau nh sinh hc, sinh thi, x hi, kinh t... c th c biu din bt c thi gian no nh l mt im trong khng gian pha rng ln m trc ca n l cc yu t kim sot v ta ca im l gi tr hin ti ca h (xem hnh 2). V mt k thut, tt c cc bin s kim sot c lp u c a vo di dng mt trc ta trong khng gian pha, v th m trng thi ca h hon ton c xc nh da vo mt im trong khng gian pha m h ng k, cng nh c th xc nh ton din lch s v tng lai ca h.

29

Ba vng sinh tn ca cc h thng gi thit l A, B v C. H A thch nghi v din rng cc gi tr pa v to nhng ph thuc vo cc h thng B v C vn khng thch nghi rng. Vi th vng tn ti hiu qu ca h thng A l ni chng chp ca A vi B v C (vng gch sc) [9]

i vi mt trc bin s kim sot nht nh, con ngi ch c th chu ng c mt khong gi t rt hp. Vng thch ng ca con ngi l v tr chng chp ca tt c cc h thng cn thit cho s tn ti ca con ngi. Ni chung, khi nm ti ranh gii ca vng ny th s tn ti ca con ngi s tr nn kh khn v nguy him hn, t tin nghi hn v con ngi v cc h thng m n da vo ang chu sc p ngy cng tng v ang tip cn s thay i v cn bn. Min ranh gii ca vng thch ng c th gi l vng tai bin. Mt v d in hnh cho s chng chp cc vng sinh tn khc nhau ca mt h thng l khi nim v kh nng ti (hay sc cha) ca mt im du lch. Mi im du lch u c 3 kh nng ti: sinh thi, kinh t v x hi, c o bng s lng du khch cc i u ving thm im du lch m khng gy suy thoi im du lch v mt sinh thi, kinh t v x hi. Ba gi tr sc cha ny rt khc
30

nhau. Gi tr: nh nht chnh l khong sinh tn an ton ca h thng lnh th du lch. Theo thi gian, nu h thng Tri t chuyn ti im trong khng gian pha nm ngoi ranh gii ca mt hay mt s h thng m con ngi phi da vo, th loi ngi s b tiu dit. S sinh tn ca loi ngi ph thuc vo s duy tr ca h thng trong phm vi gii hn chu ng trn tt c cc trc kim sot ti hn. Din tch nh th trong khng gian pha c gi l vng bn vng (vng gch cho hnh 2). Vng bn vng khng bao gi cn i, v con ngi (cng nh a phn cc loi) c kh nng m rng s thch nghi theo mt vi hng so vi cc hng khc. Theo thi gian, mt h thng dch chuyn trong khng gian pha theo mt qu o - c th gm nhiu chu k, nhng khng bao gi lp li nguyn vn (Hnh 3).

Hnh 3. Qu o ca mt h l thuyt theo mt ct 2 chiu (mt phng Poincar) ca khng gian pha. Nhiu chu k c th xut hin nhng qu o gn nh khng bao gi lp li (tnh khng xc nh trong V Tr) [9]

H thng Tri t v mt s phng din cng ging nh cc h sinh hc. im khc nhau quan trng nht l h Tri t khng th t nhn bn c. Tuy nhin, Tri t cng tin ha v thch ng, d rng c thc c khc nhau. Cc trng thi h s tin ha khi Tri t du hnh trong khng gian pha (Hnh 4). C mt khuynh hng chung i vi tt c cc h thng l di chuyn v pha trng thi n nh. Tt nhin s n nh ch l tng i. Khng c trng thi n nh no l tuyt i d rng mt h s dng li trong cc vng n nh nhng n lun lun trng thi
31

vn ng.

Hnh 4. Khi Tri t vn ng trong khng gian pha, vng sinh tn ca nhn loi c xu th din bin theo qu o cong, thay i hnh dng theo qu trnh vn ng ca Tri t iu l kt qu ca nhng bin i tin ha v thch ng, ng thi cng l kt qu pht trin cng ngh. Tuy nhin khng h c m bo rng vng sinh tn s c kh nng theo st qu o cong mt cch thnh cng; s di chuyn cng nhanh th s theo st cng kh khn v cng khng chc chn [9]

Tng tc gia con ngi v mi trng c th c suy xt t s di chuyn ca h Tri t dc theo cc trc khc nhau ca khng gian pha mt cch ng thi. Nu iu xy ra tc vt qu tc m cc h thng khc c th thch ng tc l vt qu kh nng theo kp ca vng bn vng trong khng gian pha, th cc h khc s b hy dit. S sng trn Tri t tng nhiu ln b hy dit trong sut lch s s sng trn 500 triu nm qua. S m ln ton cu l mt v d in hnh. Nhit Tri t c tng tc th lp ph thc vt thn g s tin v pha a cc khong 200 tim. Tc di c thm rng vo cui giai on bng h cui cng l khong 20 100 khu 100 nm. Gi s tc m ln ton cu nhanh hn 100 ln, nhiu loi cy s khng th di c v pha a cc vi tc nhanh nh vy, chc chn gii thc vt s b khng hong trm trng. T , gii ng vt, v cui cng l con ngi v x hi cng s b e da bi thm ha. 1.11. Tnh mm mi ca h thng Vn ct li trong phn tch v pht trin cc chnh sch
32

kinh t v chnh tr nhm tin n cch sng bn vng hn chnh l tnh mm mi (flexibility), tc l tim nng khng lin kt qu cht to c hi cho s thay i. Nu mt bin s kim sot ti hn nm ranh gii di hoc trn khong an ton, th vic suy gim tnh mm mi chc chn s lan trn. Cng nhc s kh bin i v kh thch ng. Bng n dn s chnh l mt cch lm suy gim tnh mm mi, c bit trong trng hp lin kt vi cc yu t tai bin nh nn i hay dch bnh. gii quyt cc vn v tnh bn vng, phi gii quyt hai vn cng mt lc: Tnh mm mi cn c pht hin hay to ra c th c bo v thch hp. Phi ngn nga vic lm suy gim tnh mm mi c th li s xut hin thm trong tng lai. 1.12. Cc mc bn vng ca cc h thng kinh t x hi Vn quan trng cn phi lm r l liu tt c cc quc gia hoc cc khu vc cn phi bn vng mt cch nghim ngt, hoc bn vng tim nng hay khng. Khi nim v trng thi bn vng quc gia hoc cng ng vi nhng gi tr v kinh t, chnh tr v x hi l rt quan trng. Cc qu trnh a cht v sinh hc to nn Tri t vi c hai loi ti nguyn ti to v khng ti to, li khng h ph thuc vo cc ranh gii hnh chnh hay ranh gii quc gia, th trong trng hp l tng, cc quc gia cn phi bn vng nh nhau. Bi v bt c mt mc no ca tnh bn vng, t mc c nhn, hng, vng, quc gia, i lc hoc cc lin minh kinh t, u c rt nhiu yu t pht trin c ngun gc t bn ngoi. Ch c cc yu t quyt nh pht trin ton cu mi l yu t bn trong i vi h thng Tri t. V th v mt l thuyt, ni n tnh bn vng l ni n phm vi ton cu. Tuy nhin tnh hnh thc t li khng ng nh vy. Chp nhn rng hin nay cn cha c cch ng x ton cu c hiu qu, cn thiu cc cu trc v c ch p
33

dng bt c thay i c ngha no, chng ta buc phi gii quyt mt nhim v kh khn l phi bng cch no pht trin theo hng bn vng trong phm vi tng quc gia, tng khu vc hoc tng vng. T ny sinh ra mt nguyn tc ni ting ca pht trin bn vng "Ngh - Ton cu, Lm - a phng. Cn phi chia nh vn nan gii ni trn thnh hai giai on, ln lt c gi l mc h thng v mc d n. l v yu t quan trng i vi mt h thng ni chung ch c o lng mc h thng. Cc yu t cp d n kim sot tng phn v c la chn cc mc thp, c th lm chuyn dch tc ng sang cc phn khc ca h thng. Gi d nu nh Hoa K ct gim 1/2 lng tiu th du m, th li nhun ton cu chc s gim nghim trng nu cc quc gia khc cng tng cng vic gim gi du, iu ny cng dn n vic gim tiu th tng ng cc nc ny. V mt nguyn tc, c th t c s kim sot ton din bng mt s cch, v d trin khai cc cng c kinh t thch hp tng gi cc ngun ti nguyn, hoc thc hin cc quy nh trc tip i vi s kim sot, hoc cm s dng mt vi dng ti nguyn. Mt v d v vic p dng cc chnh sch bn vng cp h thng l thu cacbon, hoc thu nng lng. Th thu ny tc ng n vic s dng nng lng tit kim v c hiu qu hn trong h thng. Vn thc t s ny sinh khi cc d n ring bit c nh gi v kh nng ng gp ca chng vo tnh bn vng chung ca h. Bi l d n no cng ch nhm vo mt phn nh ca h m thi, do vic nh gi thch hp v chnh xc vai tr ca d n i vi ton b h l kh khn. V d mt d n ang lm gim phc li mc a phng hin ti, nhng li ng gp v tng cng phc li mc rng hn, hoc thi gian sau ny trong
34

tng lai. Mt d n pht trin phong nng, r rng l c li, nhng li gy thit hi cho tin nghi mi trng a phng lp t trm. Mt trong nhng vn rt thc t l lm cch no thit lp mt "d n bn vng" trong bi cnh trt t kinh t hin ti vn khng bn vng. Trong giai on trin khai mt d n, kiu mu tiu chun ca u t s dn n mt dng m (dng vo) v vn u t. y khng phi l s vng bn v mt kinh t, bi v mt d n bn vng khng th ph thuc mi vo ngun ti nguyn thu ht t vng khc. Nh vy mt d n bn vng giai on hon chnh chc chn phi to mt dng vn trung tnh hoc dng ra. t c iu , cc d n pht trin cn phi da trn: Tng cng nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng i vi sn phm v dch v c tiu chun o c v mi trng cao. S dng cc cng c kinh t mi trng phn b ng n cc chi ph mi trng. S dng cc cng c lut php cm cc sn phm hoc hnh ng c hi n mi trng. Tip cn x hi hc cn c coi trng v pht huy cng lc vi cc tip cn cng ngh, k thut hay kinh t. Cu hi tho lun chng 1 1. Ti sao ni c s tn ti ca mt trt t trong nhiu lon"? Trt t ti sao li xut hin v xut hin nh th no? Nhiu lon c vai tr g trong s tin ha ca cc h ng lc? 2. C mi lin quan g gia tnh tri v chc nng ca mt h thng? Ti sao mt h thng bao gi cng a chc nng v a chiu? Ti sao phn ln h thng li l h thng g gh? 3. Nhng h thng no c entropy m? Quan h gia entropy v lng thng tin trong h thng? Vai tr ca mi trng bn ngoi i vi mt h thng m? Mt h thng m c kh nng xut khu entropy sang cc h thng khc khng?
35

Chng 2 i Cng v tip cn h thng

2.1. Gii thiu chung T khi "Hc thuyt chung v h thng" ca Bertalanffy c xut bn nm 1956, thut ng "h thng" - dng ch cch thc con ngi xy dng khi nim v thc ti xung quanh mnh - c s dng c trong khoa hc t nhin, khoa hc x hi cng nh trong k thut [14]. T duy mt cch h thng cn c nhn nhn nh mt hng tip cn gii quyt cc vn t ra. Thc t cho thy, hng tip cn ny ng vai tr quan trng trong lch s pht trin ca cc ngnh khoa hc bi l qu trnh chuyn mn ha trong sn xut lun i cng vi s gia tng xu hng chia kin thc thnh cc hp phn nh nghin cu. Thi k u, c nhiu nh bc hc c kin thc tng qut v tt c nhng g c th nm bt c vo thi k ca h nh Michelangelo (1475 - 1564) v Leonardo da Vinci (1452 - 1519). Tuy nhin, sau th k 16, kin thc ca th gii pht trin qu nhanh n mc cc nh khoa hc ch c th i su nghin cu trong mt lnh vc c th. Con ngi bt u chuyn mn ha v cc ngnh khoa hc khc nhau c hnh thnh v pht trin. Nhng n cui th k 20, vic ng dng ch mt ngnh khoa hc nhiu khi khng nhng khng th gii quyt c vn m cn c th lm ny sinh hng lot nhng vn mi. Do , gii quyt cc vn trong thc tin, chng ta khng ch s dng kin thc ca mt ngnh khoa hc m s dng kin thc a ngnh (multidisciplinary), lin ngnh (interdisciplinary) v gian ngnh (transdisciplinary). T , hc thuyt v h thng v Tip cn H thng c hnh thnh v pht trin.
36

Tip cn H thng trong hc thuyt ca Benalanffy l s kt hp gia phng php phn tch v tng hp. Bertalanffy cho rng tt c cc h thng c cc nh vt l nghin cu l h thng c lp - h thng khng c tng tc g (trao i vt cht v nng lng) vi mi trng bn ngoi. Tuy nhin, l mt nh sinh hc, Bertalanffy bit rng nhng gi thuyt nh vy l khng th p dng cho hu ht cc hin tng t nhin. Tch ri khi mi trng xung quanh, sinh vt sng s nhanh chng i n ci cht v thiu xy, nc v thc n. Sinh vt sng l nhng h thng m: chng khng th tn ti nu thiu s trao i lin tc vt cht v nng lng vi mi trng. im c trng ca h thng m l s tng tc vi cc h thng bn ngoi khc. S tng tc ny c hai thnh phn: u vo - nhng g t bn ngoi i vo h thng - v u ra - nhng g t bn trong ri khi h thng ra mi trng. Khi ni n bn trong v bn ngoi ca mt h thng, chng ta cn phn bit c h thng v mi trng ca n. H thng v mi trng dc phn bit bi mt ranh gii c gi l ranh gii ca h thng. V d nh: da ng vai tr l ranh gii ca h thng sng vi mi trng bn ngoi. u ra ca mt h thng nhn chung l cc sn phm trc tip hoc gin tip t u vo. Nhng g i ra ngoi h thng thng c trong nhng g i vo h thng. Tuy nhin, u ra thng rt khc bit so vi u vo: h thng khng phi l mt ng b ng (u vo = u ra) m l mt b phn x l ch ng.

37

Khi xem xt k hn mi trng ca mt h thng, chng ta s thy n li bao gm rt nhiu h thng tng tc vi mi trng ca nhiu h thng . Nu chng ta xem xt mt tp hp cc h thng m chng tng tc vi nhau th tp hp cc h thng c th li c xem l mt h thng quy m ln hn. V d: mt nhm ngi c quan h qua li vi nhau c th hnh thnh nn mt gia nh, mt cng ty hay thm ch mt thnh ph. Mi quan h qua li gia cc h thng thnh phn (h thng con - ph h - phn h) ng vai tr nh cht kt dnh cc thnh phn hnh thnh mt khi - mt h thng c quy m ln hn. Nu khng c cht kt dnh nh vy, khi chng khc no mt php tnh cng cc h thng thnh phn ca n. Nhng bi v chng tng tc, nn c mt s yu t c thm vo. V d: khi xem xt h sinh thi c s c mt ca con ngi (h sinh thi nhn vn), yu t c thm vo chnh l yu t v cng ngh - cng c khai thc, ch bin, s dng ti nguyn, x l cht thi a vo mi trng. Cc h thng thnh phn c xem nh l ph h (hay phn h hay h thng con) ca thng h m chng to ra. Ngc li, h thng ln bao gm cc ph h c xem nh l siu h thng hay thng h i vi cc ph h. Nu chng ta coi thng h (siu h thng) nh l mt khi, chng ta khng cn bit tt c cc thnh phn ca thng h (siu h thng) . Chng ta ch cn quan tm n tng u vo v tng
38

u ra m khng cn quan tm n phn no ca u vo i vo phn h no. Quan im nh vy xem xt h thng nh l mt "hp en" v xem xt ci g (nng lng, vt cht, thng tin) i vo u vo ca h thng v to ra u ra m khng xem xt iu g xy ra bn trong . Ngc li, nu chng ta c th bit c cc qu trnh ni ti ca h thng, chng ta c th gi h thng l "hp trng". Mc d nhn vo "hp en" c v khng c r rng lm, nhng trong nhiu trng hp l cch tt nht m chng ta c th c. V d, chng ta khng h bit nhiu qu trnh trong c th xy ra nh th no. Nhiu bc s c th theo di nu h cho bnh nhn s dng mt loi thuc c th no (u vo), bnh nhn s phn ng theo mt cch nht nh (u ra). Tuy nhin, trong nhiu trng hp, cc bc s bit rt t v c ch m thuc to ra cc phn ng ca bnh nhn. R rng rng, thuc khi vo c th bnh nhn s khi ng mt chui cc phn ng lin kt phc tp, vi s tham gia ca cc c quan v cc phn khc nhau ca c th, nhng ch duy nht kt qu cui cng (phn ng ca bnh nhn vi thuc) l c th c xc nh r rng.

Mt h thng nu c xem xt nh mt "hp en" th khng

39

hon ton c ngha l chng ta khng th bit g xy ra bn trong h thng. Trong nhiu trng hp, chng ta c th d dng bit c nhng g xy ra bn trong h thng nhng chng ta vn b qua nhng chi tit ni ti ca h thng (nguyn tc: "s b qua ti u hay "s ngu dt ti u). V d: khi m hnh ha mt thnh ph nh l mt h thng pht sinh nhim, chng ta khng nht thit phi xc nh ng khi no to ra mt lng nhim nh th no, chng ta ch cn xc nh tng lng nhin liu c tiu th trong thnh ph d on tng lng CO2 v cc kh gy nhim khc c to ra. i vi mt thnh ph, cch tip cn "hp en" s n gin v d dng hn trong vic tnh ton mc nhim chung so vi vic s dng cch tip cn chi tit "hp trng" vi nhim v ln theo du vt ca tng ngun nhim c th trong thnh ph. Hai cch tip cn b sung, "en" v "trng", i vi cng mt h thng minh ha cho mt nguyn tc chung: cc h thng c cu trc theo th bc. Chng bao gm cc bc khc nhau. bc cao hn, chng ta c c ci nhn tru tng hn, tng qut hn m khng quan tm n cc chi tit ca tng b phn hay tng phn. bc thp hn, chng ta c c ci nhn v tp hp cc phn tng tc qua li m khng nm c cc phn c t chc ra sao hnh thnh nn mt th thng nht. Theo cch tip cn phn tch, tt c nhng g chng ta cn l thng tin v bc thp. V d: nu chng ta c th bit c trng thi chnh xc ca tt c cc b phn v t bo trong c th, chng ta c th hiu c c th hot ng nh th no. Y hc kinh in da trn cch tip cn gin lun , cho nn b st mt iu quan trng nht: c th l mt th thng nht. Trng thi tnh thn ca con ngi nh hng ti trng thi ca d dy v do nh hng ngc tr li trng thi tinh thn. Cc tng tc khng phi l cc mi quan h nhn qu n gin v tuyn lnh m l cc mng li phc tp ca s ph thuc ln nhau, m ch c th c hiu thng qua mc ch chung ca chng: duy tr trng thi sc kho tt cho c th. "Mc ch
40

chung" hay "tnh tri ca h thng" ny hot ng mc tng th. N khng c ngha g mc cc b phn c lp hay cc t bo [15]. "Hc thuyt chung v h thng" da trn gi nh s tn ti ca cc nguyn tc vn nng v cch t chc c s dng tt c cc h thng, mang tnh vt l, ha hc, sinh hc, tm l v x hi ca h thng. Cch nhn nhn th gii theo thuyt c hc trn kim tnh vn nng bng cch n gin ho tt c xung mc cu to vt cht. Ngc li, cc nhn nhn th gii h thng tm tnh vn nng vi vic b qua cc vt liu c th to thnh h thng tp trung nghin cu cch t chc ca h thng [151. Nh vy, Tip cn H thng l cch nhn nhn th gii qua cu trc h thng, th bc v ng lc ca chng, l mt tip cn ton din v ng. Tip cn ny l cch x l bin chng nht i vi cc vn mi trng v pht trin - cc h thng mm v na mm. Phn tch h thng l nhng phng php, cng c c th c tip cn h thng s dng. 2.2. Cc hng tip cn h thng C hai hng tip cn vn khi thc hin cc nghin cu trong thc t. tip cn da trn cc thnh t v tip cn da trn tng th. C hai cch tip cn ny u s dng hp en v thut ng "hp en" c nhc n nhiu ln cc phn trn. Tuy nhin, mt ln na thut ng "hp en" li c cp ti bi tm quan trng ca n trong Tip cn H thng v nhng ri ro m n c th mang li. 2.2.1. Hp en v nhng ri ro Nu nhn nhn mt h thng hay h thng ph (ph h) nh mt "hp en", bc u cc thnh t v cc mi quan h bn trong h thng tm thi s khng c xem xt. Mt hp en do c tnh cht ca mt thnh t. Ni cch khc, h thng s ch c
41

xem xt t bn ngoi. Phn ln cc h thng trong t nhin l cc h thng m nn chng c s tng tc, trao i vi mi trng. Do , h thng m c tnh cht ca mt qu trnh. Khi nghin cu chc nng ca qu trnh cn phi xem xt u vo l g, dn ti u ra nh th no v da trn phng php quy np i dn cc kt lun lin quan n hnh vi h thng ca hp en. Cch tip cn ny thng c ri ro. Ta c th thy, hu ht cc nghin cu thng k da trn nguyn tc hp en. Mt v d c nhiu ngi bit n v mt nghin cu thng k Thy in: nghin cu v mi tng quan gia s lng loi c c hu ca mt vng vi s lng tr em sinh ra trong vng . Kt lun c rt ra t nghin cu l "tr em do c mang ti". Nghin cu thng k c thc hin khng cn xem xt bn trong hp en a ra mi quan h nhn qu gia hai hin tng c th dn ti cc kt lun v gi tr [13]. 2.2.2. Phn tch v tng hp Tip cn phn tch v tip cn tng hp khng nhng khng i lp nhau, hay loi tr nhau m cn b sung cho nhau. Tip cn phn tch gin ho h thng thnh cc thnh t c bn ca h thng nhm nghin cu cc chi tit v tm hiu cc loi quan h tn ti gia chng. Thng qua vic bin i tng yu t, tip cn phn tch tm ra cc quy lut chung cho php ngi phn tch d on cc tnh cht ca h thng trong cc iu kin khc nhau. c th d on th cn phi tin ra c cc quy lut v s t hp ca cc thuc tnh c bn. Khi cc quy lut thng k c th c p dng, cho php nh phn tch hiu c hnh vi ca mt tp hp n gin [18]. Quy lut v s t hp cc thuc tnh c bn khng p dng c vi cc h thng c tnh phc tp cao, cu thnh bi cc thnh
42

t a dng lin kt vi nhau thng qua cc tng tc mnh m. Cc h thng phi c tip cn bng cc phng php mi trong tip cn h thng. Mc ch ca cc phng php mi nhm nghin cu h thng da trn tnh tng th, phc tp v lun vn ng ca h thng. Thng qua m phng h thng, nh nghin cu c th quan st cc tc ng ca cc loi hnh tng tc khc nhau gia cc thnh t ca h thng trong mt khong thi gian. Nghin cu v hnh vi theo thi gian gip xc nh cc quy lut thay i h thng hoc thit k cc h thng Bng 1. So snh cc im c trng ca hai cch tip cn phn tch v tng hp
Tip cn phn tch C lp, tp trung vo tng thnh t. Tip cn tng hp Hp nht v tp trung vo tng tc gia cc thnh t. Nghin cu cc tc ng ca tng tc.

Nghin cu bn cht ca tng tc.

Nhn mnh vo tnh chnh xc ca cc Nhn mnh vo nhn thc chung. chi tit. Thay i tng yu t. Thay i ng thi mt nhm cc yu t.

Khng ph thuc vo thi gian; cc hin Hp nht vi thi gian v khng th o tng c xem nh c th o ngc. ngc. Xc nhn s kin thng qua cc th Xc nhn s kin thng qua so snh hnh nghim kim chng trong phm vi mt vi ca m hnh vn thc t khch quan. hc thuyt. S dng cc m hnh chnh xc v chi tit S dng cc m hnh thiu cht ch c t c ng dng trong thc t. th c s dng nh nn tng ca tri thc nhng hu ch trong vic ra quyt nh v hnh ng. L cch tip cn hiu qu nu cc tng L cch tip cn hiu qu nu cc tng tc tuyn tnh v yu. tc khng tuyn tnh v mnh.

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Dn ti gio dc chuyn ngnh hp (n Dn ti gio dc a ngnh. ngnh). Dn ti hnh ng c lp trnh chi tit Dn ti hnh ng c xc nh thng qua cc mc tiu. S hu cc chi tit t xc nh mc tiu S hu cc kin thc v mc tiu, cc chi tit khng th hin r rng.

Theo Rosnay (1979) [18]. 2.2.3. M hnh v m phng Xy dng m hnh v m phng l phng php c s dng rng ri nht trong tip cn h thng. c xy dng nh mt phn ca cch tip cn phn tch, m hnh l s hp nht cc thnh t chnh ca h thng xem xt hnh vi ca h thng nh mt tng th - bng cch cp tht nhiu (n mc c th) n s ph thuc qua li gia cc yu t Cch nhn ca chng ta v th gii l mt dng m hnh. Tt c cc hnh nh trong t duy ca chng ta u l mt h thng m nht khng hon chnh v c s dng lm nn tng ra quyt nh. Khi nghin cu cc h thng phc tp vi mt s lng ln bin, vic xy dng cc m hnh tng ng n gin l khng ph hp. Nu khng c s tr gip ca my tnh v cc h thng m phng, chng ta khng th lm cho h thng tr nn sng ng. S m phng c th lm cho h thng tr nn sng ng bng cch a vo ng thi tt c cc bin ca h thng. Xy dng m hnh l thit lp mt m hnh t cc d liu c t giai on phn tch h thng. u tin mt s hon chnh v cc mi quan h nhn qu gia cc thnh t ca h thng ph c thit lp. Sau , trn nn ngn ng my tnh ph hp, cc cng thc m t cc tng tc v cc quan h gia cc thnh t ca h thng c thit lp.
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M phng xem xt hnh vi ng ca h thng phc tp. Thay cho vic s dng tng bin, m phng a vo cc nhm bin s nhm thit lp mt tnh hung thc t phc hp hn. M phng c s dng ngy nay trong rt nhiu lnh vc nh s pht trin ca cc ngn ng m phng mnh hn nhng vn n gin v s pht trin ca cng ngh truyn dn d liu gia cc mng my tnh. M phng c ng dng trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau: m hnh ha mi trng - d bo tc ng ca cc cht nhim khng kh t, nc, nng ca cht nhim trong chui thc n. . . quy hoch thnh phi s tng trng ca cc thnh ph, s xut hin ca cc khu chut, giao thng c gii; vt l hc thin th - s ra i v tin ha ca cc ngn h, "cc th nghim" sn xut kh quyn cc hnh tinh khc; vt l - dng electrons trong thit b bn dn, tnh chng chu ca vt liu, sc sng. cc dng cht lng. s hnh thnh sng; kinh t v chnh tr - d on cng ngh, m phng cc mu thun. "cc m hnh th gii"; qun l cng nghip - cc chnh sch th trng, thm nhp th trng, a ra sn phm mi [18]. Cho d cc ng dng nhiu v s lng v da dng v chng loi, nhng cng khng th trng i qu nhiu t s m phng. M phng khng th da ra gii php ti u hoc chnh xc cho mt vn xc nh. N ch c th a ra cc chiu hng chung v hnh vi ca mt h thng - cc hng tin ha c th ca h thng - ng thi xut cc gi thuyt mi. Mt trong s cc nhc im ca m phng l s la chn t do cc bin [18] . Ngi s dng c th thay i cc iu kin ban u ch "xem iu g s xy ra", dn n lc li trong v s cc bin s. M phng cho php xc minh cc tc ng ca mt s lng ln cc bin s ln chc nng chung ca h thng; n xp hng vai
45

tr ca mi bin theo mc quan trng; n khm ph ra cc im khuch i hoc c ch thng qua c th gy nh hng ln hnh vi ca h thng. 2.2.4. Tip cn H thng trong tp quyt nh Tip cn h thng hin nay nhn chung vn cn gi mt vai tr nh b trong vic lp cc quyt nh v mi trng v pht trin. V d, trong rt nhiu vn qun l ti nguyn v nhim, ngi ta thng n gin ha n mc coi s phn ng ca cc h l tuyn tnh mc d trn thc t l phi tuyn. Nhn thc v tc dng ca nhng bin ng lu di v chm chp, v d cc tai bin tim n thng khng mc, v cc yu t ca h thng thng c phn tch tch ri m ng l phi coi chng nh nhng b phn hu c ca mt c th thng nht. Cc h phc tp c th to ra cc kt qu va ph thuc vo cc tng tc rt a dng, va c tnh nhy cm cao i vi cc iu kin xut pht v trng s ca cc yu t. Ngoi ra, mt s nhm h thng phc tp s c hnh vi nhiu lon trong mt s iu kin no ; v cc h thng nhiu lon, trn nhiu phng din, li ph bin hn l cc h c tnh n nh cao. Tuy nhin, cng c nhng c gng nhm s dng t duy h thng vo vic qun l, bao gm hai tip cn: tip cn cng v tip cn mm. 2.2.4.1. Tip cn cng Tip cn cng dnh cho cc h thng m mc tiu, cu trc l r rng . V c bn, tip cn cng gm mt chui cc bc gii quyt vn : (l) Xc nh vn : xc nh vn v nhng vic cn lm. (2) La chn mc tiu: xc nh nhng yu cu nhm t
46

c mc tiu, xy dng cc gii php hiu qu nhm to c s i snh gia cc phng n chin lc. (3) Tng hp h thng: xc nh cc h thng thay th c th c. (4) Phn tch h thng: phn tch v lng gi cc h thng c gi nh, di nh sng ca cc mc tiu. (5) La chn h thng: la chn h thng c ha hn nht. (6) Pht trin h thng: pht trin h thng chn n giai on m hnh ha. (7) Chnh xc ha h thng: thc t ha h thng, xc nh cc qu trnh gim st h thng, chun ha h thng nu cn thit. M hnh c bn ny c th c m rng bng nhiu cch bao gm c cc ch s t mng kinh t x hi hoc cc tiu chun a din khc. Vic lp cc quyt nh v kinh t hay chnh t c tin hnh da trn c s a mc tiu. Tuy nhin, nhng quyt nh nh vy thng c to dng trn c s hiu bit thiu ton din, v d nh bng cch no m nhng mc tiu c th to ra cc xung t. Theo nguyn tc chung th tt c cc quyt nh u c n du mt hoc nhiu k vng qu mc. Vai tr ca vic phn tch h thng khng thay th cho qu trnh lp quyt nh, nhng h tr cho cc quyt nh; n tng cng cht lng cng nh h thng ha cc thng tin c c, v lm cho qu trnh lp quyt nh tr nn cng khai hn v hiu qu hn. Clayton (1997) ci bin cht t tip cn cng, ch yu tp trung vo chi ph v li ch ca cc chng trnh thay th [9]. Tip cn ci bin gm nhng bc sau y: (l) Xc nh mc tiu: lm r mc tiu v mc ch mong mun.
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(2) M t cc k thut hoc h thng thay th: c th c c nhm mc tiu . (3) Xc nh chi ph v ti nguyn cn thit trin khai cc k thut hoc h thng la chn. (4) Xy dng m hnh h thng dng m hnh ton hc hoc khung lgic, cho php ch r tnh ph thuc ln nhau gia cc mc tiu, cc h, mi trng v cc ngun ti nguyn c th c. (5) Xy dng cc tiu chun la chn v lin kt cc mc tiu chi ph v ti nguyn c th chn c cc gii php ti u hoc mong mun. S ny sinh nhiu vn khi tip cn cng c s dng cho h m, nht l cc h sinh thi nhn vn. Tip cn cng nhm vo vic cung cp gii php cho mt vn xc nh r v do m tt c cc yu t nhn chung c cho trc. Tuy nhin, i vi cc h m, th iu thng thiu nht li chnh l mc tiu, m Merton (1965) gi l "S tm kim nhng gii php hng mnh cho mt mc ch khng th xc minh c" [9]. 2.2.4.2. Tip cn mm i vi cc h thng m, t duy h thng ch c coi l s ng gp vo vic gii quyt vn , hn l phng php lun nhm trc tip vo mc tiu. Tip cn ny p dng cho tt c cc tnh hung khi m t thn nhim v khng th xc nh mt cch ton din v khch quan. Trong khi tip cn cng c th dc s dng gii quyt cc vn c cu trc mch lc, th tip cn mm li thch hp vi cc vn khng c cu trc mch lc. Vi cc vn khng c cu trc, th ngay c nh ngha ca vn v thit k mc tiu t chng cng thiu mch lc. Khi m vic xc nh vn cn ph thuc vo quan im c chp nhn, th iu ct yu l phi lm cho quan im y tr nn r rng, dt khot, v tip l thit lp
48

kt qu ca h thng t . iu cng c ngha l kt qu chnh xc ca cc giai on phn tch tnh hung v trin khai gii php khng th c duy tr mi. l v t thn vn thng i hi, phi c ti xc nh trong sut qu trnh, v cng cn thit phi c chun b tr li giai on u tin, v tn nhiu thi gian ti xt vn . Thm ch c th l ngay c khch hng m vn c gii quyt v h, cng cn c ti xc nh nh l mt phn ca qu trnh ny. H thng c s tham gia ca con ngi lun lun c tnh a gi tr. V d cc t chc chnh thc tn ti v mt mc tiu no ban u, c ngha l phi thc hin mt chc nng xc nh, nhng tt c cc t chc nh vy bao gi cng tm thm nhng chc nng khc b sung. Chng c t chc no li c to ra ch thc hin mt vi nhim v chuyn bit. Cc t chc lun lun hm cha cc mi quan h nhn vn quan trng. Mt phn mc ch ca cc mi tng tc nhn vn l xc lp v ci bin cc mi quan h, thng lin kt vi bt c mt mc ch chnh thc v c mc tiu no. Thng thng i vi cc t chc chng c li nhng thay i v cu trc (v d nhng thay i e da n s tn ti ca cc cu trc quyn lc ang hin hnh) ch chp nhn nhng thay i no khng e da n s phn b quyn lc hin c ca n m thi. V vy, trong thc t, cc thay i va phi mang tnh h thng, va phi c s thch ng mm do mt cch nhn vn. Cc giai on ca tip cn mm l: (1) im qua (tng quan) v hin trng cc vn khng c cu trc r rt. (2) Lm r v trnh by hin trng vn . (3) Xc nh cc h thng tng thch (k c cc phn h) bt k l chnh thc hay khng chnh thc. (4) Xy dng m hnh khi nim, kch bn v lm r s ging
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nhau. (5) So snh cc m hnh ny vi hin trng c trnh by. (6) Xc tin cc thay i va c tnh mm do, va tha mn mong i. (7) Xc lp cc hnh ng nhm ci thin hin trng vn . Qu trnh ny bao gm vic xc nh v ti xc nh mc tiu bng cch xy dng cc m hnh, pht trin cc tiu chun, so snh m hnh vi hin trng v c hai vic ti cu trc m hnh v gii quyt hin trng phi thc hin trong mt qu trnh i hi lin tc phn hi, lin tc quay tr li t u v lin tc lp li. Ni tm li, phng php tip cn mm cn nhiu phn hi hn tip cn cng, vi vic lin tc so snh gia cc giai on. Kiu t duy h thng ny t n l mt u vo ca vic thay i t chc. Tip cn mm ph bin hn tip cn cng. Phn tch cng ch c s dng khi h c xc nh r rt. Trong thc t, tip cn mm l mt tip cn c kt thc ng, l thc s cn thit bt c ch no m kt qu cha c tin lng chnh xc. Tip cn mm, xt cho cng cng ch l mt qu trnh hc hi lin tc, rt kinh nghim lin tc. Bt c mt m hnh h m no cng ch c coi nh l mt bi cnh m trong cc s kin c gn cho mt ngha nht nh. Cc dng tc ng gia cc yu t nhn vn ca h thng khng phi l nhng thng tin trung lp, m l cc s kin mang ti nhiu ngha a din i vi nhng ngi tham gia. Mt nhim v hoc mt s vn hnh nh sn cn phi c xc nh chch xc mt mc , nhng c th vn c cc ngha hon ton khc i vi cc yu t nhn vn v nhng ngi tham gia. Mt yu t xc nh mt chc nng hay mt nhim v, ph thuc rt nhiu vo
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quan nim mi ngi, c gi l mt chc nng ngm. iu ny cng c th p dng cho cu trc h thng. a phn cc cu trc nhn vn l hin thn ca nim tin v quan im, m c hai th ny u d b bin i theo thi gian. Checkland (1981) [9] khi cp n s cn thit phi xc nh cc h thng nhn vn, xut 6 yu t quan trng hng u l: (1) Bin i u vo thnh u ra: bao gm vic xc nh cc dng vo, i xuyn qua v ra khi h thng. (2) Quyn lc ca h thng: bao gm vic xc nh nhng ngi lp quyt nh v nhng nhm quyn li. (3) Tc nhn trong h thng: bao gm vic xc nh cc cng ng tham gia vo hay nh hng n h thng. (4) Khch hng ca h thng: bao gm vic xc nh cc nhu cu m con ngi to ra t h thng, nhm so snh v sau i vi mc tiu c xut ca h thng. (5) Tr ngi mi trng ca h thng: gm vic xc nh tt c cc tr ngi ca mi trng x hi, kinh t v mi trng t nhin ca h thng. (6) Hon cnh: bao gm vic tho lun v lm r th gii quan, quan im, k vng ca nhng ngi tham gia, ch s hu, tc nhn v khch hng ca h thng. Nh phn tch cc h thng nhn vn cng cn lu thm: Vic iu tra x hi hc mi trng l khc c bn vi iu tra h sinh thi t nhin, sinh thi nhn vn hoc x hi hc thun ty. Tip cn phn tch kinh in n gin ha thng khng ph hp vi nhng vn "m m', khi t hp cc yu t t nhin v x hi vo mt h thng. Trong cc h thng x hi, cc yu t nh vai tr, quy tc, gi
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tr, khi nim v s dng quyn lc l nhng yu t quan trng nht. Tt nht l lm r cc vn ny hn l vic c tnh che du chng trong qu trnh lp quyt nh. V vy, tip cn cng tham gia rng ri ca cc nhm quyn li l cc k quan trng. Cc h thng khng th c xc nh khi m thng h ca chng cha c xc nh. iu ny thng ph bin i vi cc h qun l v h nhn vn. V d khi quy hoch hoc thit k mt h thng x l nc, tt nht l xut pht t vic xem xt t chc m quy hoch hoc h thng phc v, trc khi xem xt h thng cn lm g, t u, dng no, tn sut bao nhiu... iu c ngha l cn phi xc nh chc nng v vai tr ca con ngi trong h thng trc khi thit k cc h thng dch v mi trng. 2.2.5. Tp hp thng tin v ra quyt nh Cc bc tp hp thng tin gip cho vic quyt nh c th c chia thnh hai giai on c bn: Xc nh cc chnh sch c th dn n bn vng hn. Trin khai cc c ch, chin lc v cng c cn thit p dng cc chnh sch . Giai on th nht yu cu tng cng hiu bit v hnh vi ca cc h nhn vn v t nhin, cng nh nhng tng tc a dng gia cc h thng, mun vy cn trin khai cc nghin cu su. Cc l thuyt hin c chc chn phi c m rng ph hp vi mt khi lng thng tin ln do cc nghin cu ny mang li. ng thi, cng cn phi c cc k thut, phng php lun v hc thuyt mi. Giai on th hai yu cu mt s trin khai v mt truyn thng, ng thi cng trin khai cc k thut v qu trnh lng ghp cc thng tin mi (do s hiu bit tt hn v h thng em li) vo
52

cc qu trnh lp quyt nh hin ti. Hin nay c nhiu cch lp m hnh cc h thng kinh t v x hi nhn vn. Tt c cc k thut hin c phn nh s hiu bit khng y ca chng ta v hnh vi ca cc h thng tng tc phc tp, do chc chn l khng hon thin. Thc ra khoa hc no cng vy, c tnh lin ngnh v phc tp ca vn lm cho cn phi lin tc ti xt v mt phng php lun. Cc tip cn khc nhau v lng gi mi trng v m hnh lp quyt nh lin quan c th c sp xp theo mc tp hp thng tin ca chng: Tp hp cao: bao gm phn tch chi ph - li ch quy c. Tp hp trung bnh: gm cc phn tch khc nhau v chi ph - hiu qu. Tip cn ny lin kt c cc gi tr tnh thnh tin v khng tnh thnh tin, nhng khng gii quyt c vn c bn v lng gi thng tin. Tp hp ri rc: bao gm phn tch tc ng mi trng, ti liu t GIS hoc cc h thng thng tin khng tnh thnh tin khc, cc thng tin c th c s dng nh cc u vo tch bit ca qu trnh lp quyt nh cng vi cc phn tch ti chnh. Tip s c th tin hnh mt vi dng phn tch. V d nh phn tch v th. Vn khng phi l ch chn la cc m hnh phc tp hay m hnh n gin v tt c cc m hnh u l loi n gin ha trn bnh din no y, do cn b bt thng tin t c s gin lc v sng sa. Tuy nhin mt quyt nh phi c lp trn c s ti a thng tin. M hnh tp hp cao s chu chi ph ln do mt thng tin to ra. Cc vn t hp : "Vn " y c hiu l cc biu hin, cc hnh vi khng
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mong i ca h thng. Cc vn t hp c nhng c trng sau: Tnh ph thuc ca cc yu t. Cc yu t quan trng ca vn bao gi cng lin kt vi nhau mt cch gin tip hoc trc tip. Nhng c gng gii quyt bng cch ch cp n mt yu t c th a n nhng kt qu ngho nn hoc khng mong i. Cn phi cng lc s dng cng nhiu yu t cng tt v phi thit k cc chnh sch gn kt c th iu phi nhiu hnh ng. Tnh bin i ca cc mi tng tc. Mt s tng tc gia cc yu t s c phn ng tch cc, s khc phn ng trong mt phm vi no s cn li khng h phn ng. Yu t thi gian cng bin ng khng km. Mt s yu t phn ng tc th bin thnh dng khc. Trong khi , mt s yu t c tnh cao phn ng rt chm chp. Phn hi tch cc v hiu qu tch ly to ra cc kt qu vt tri hn, gia tng hn cc kch ng ban u. V d vic ci thin ch dinh dng cho nhng ngi rt ngho c th lm tng sc lao ng to ra nhiu sn phm, gp phn ci thin ch dinh dng cn tt hn. Nhng phn hi tch cc nh vy thng vn hnh cho n khi t n gii hn bn ngoi hoc cho n khi h t n trng thi bo ha. Phn hi tiu cc. Xy ra khi s thay i trong mt iu kin c th b che lp, b gim thiu bi s thay i trong mt iu kin ph thuc khc. Tip tc cc tr d v dinh dng trn, c th thy khi tng trng nhanh dn s s lm tng nhu cu thc phm, t lm tng p lc ln ngun cung cp thc phm khin ngun ny s i n cn kit, t dn n suy thoi ngun cung cp thc phm, dn n suy gim dn s. Nguyn nhn quay vng: l s thay i trong mt iu kin,
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gy ra s thay i trong mt iu kin khc v ngc li, trong mt ch ng lc tin ha qua li. Khng cn bng: tt c cc vn t hp v c bn l cc vn thch ng km hoc chnh l kt qu khng mong i ca h. Tt c cc h u nm trong qu uuul bin i lin tc thch ng. Tt c nhng c gng nhm can thip vo nhng h nh vy, v nhm a n mt kt qu khc, thc ra, l nhng c gng thay i con ng thch ng ca h bng cch lm phn r nhng iu kin kim sot quan trng trong cu trc ni ti hoc mi trng bao quanh h. Nhng can thip v nhng thay i ko theo nhng h nh vy c th c gi l cc can thip ni sinh nu chng xut pht t ng lc ni sinh ca h, c gi l can thip ngoi sinh nu chng xut thn t s can thip t bn ngoi h. Tnh phc tp ca nhng tnh hung nh vy cho thy khng phi tt c cc thng tin u c sn hoc c nh lng, khng phi tt c nhng kt qu ch c hn ch trong phm vi nh tnh. S hiu bit ph thuc vo kh nng o lng cc iu kin v cc thay i ca cc iu kin , mc d r rng mt m hnh h m s kh khn hn so vi mt m hnh h c lp. Cc vn mi trng v pht trin l nhng v d in hnh v cc vn t hp, v nhng l do sau y: Cc vn mi trng v pht trin l a din, a ngnh v a t phn. Chng thng c hai loi gi tr: tnh c thnh tin v khng tnh ra tin c. Rt nhiu loi ti nguyn khng tnh c ra tin, ang lm nguy, li l duy nht, s suy thoi nhng ti nguyn ny thng khng o ngc c hoc kh o ngc, v s thiu ht loi ti nguyn thng lm tng entropy ca h.
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 Chng thng b hn ch c trong khng gian ln thi gian, pht trin xuyn qua cc ranh gii a chnh tr v thi gian. Chng thng khng ch c gy ra do cc tc nhn trc tip m cn c gy ra do cc tc nhn nm ngoi cc v tr xy ra cc ph hy mi trng ti ch, hoc c th nh hng n cc quyn li ca cc i tc khc cha c tnh n. Chng thng ko theo xung t v quyn li v quan im. Chng thng ko theo tnh bt nh v ri ro, v c hai th li thng rt phc tp. Phn tch v th ca mt quyt nh Mc ch ca bt c qu trnh ra quyt nh no, sau khi tnh ton cc d liu tng thch, l phi t n mt quyt nh r rng, to iu kin cho mt c nhn hoc mt t chc c c nhng c hi tt nht dt c cc mc tiu k vng. Chc nng c bn ca phn tch v th (position analysis) l soi sng v nng cp qu lluul lp quyt nh, gm: To ra hiu bit thc t thng qua iu tra h thng . Soi sng qu trnh ra quyt nh. Xc nh tt c cc phng n v sc p c th c i vi nh lp quyt nh. Lm cho qu trnh lp quyt nh tr nn cng khai, bng cch lm r ngi li, ngi thit, nhng ngi bnh dn, vn xung t quyn li, cc vn v o c v quan im. S dng phng n hon ho trn c s cc phng din hp l v i snh vi phng n ca chnh nh lp quyt nh d tnh. Nhn chung, phn tch v th gm cc bc sau:
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(1) Xc nh cc iu kin, cc yu t v cc mng vn tng thch khi gii quyt mt vn tng hp hoc xc lp cc quyt nh chin lc. (2) Xc nh quy trnh lng ha, o lng, sp xp hoc u tin ha cc thay i thuc mi mng vn . iu ny c th c thc hin bng cch s dng mt s thang bc hoc php cho im. Mi mt mng cn c mt thang bc thch hp. (3) o lng hoc nh gi cc phng n hoc kch bn v s thay i trn mi mng vn . (4) Xc nh s tho hip trong s cc mng tng thch. (5) Lp quyt nh trn c s tng th tng phng n, c th phn b theo trng s tng mng. Cu hi tho lun chng 2 1. M hnh hp trng c ri ro khng? Nu c th nhng ri ro thng gp ca m hnh ny l g? 2. C th dng tip cn cng nghin c cc h thng a chiu khng? Trong trng hp no c th s dng xen k tip cn cng v tip cn mm? 3. Ti sao trong phn tch v th mt quyt nh ti phi lm cho qu trnh ra quyt nh phi tr nn cng khai? Nhng kh khn ca vic cng khai ha l g?

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Chng 3 Cng c tip cn h thng ng dng trong nghin cu mi trng v pht trin

3.1. Gii thiu Chung Th gii ang lm vo khng hong v s khng bn vng: khng t c phc li cho tt c mi ngi trong khi h sinh thi ang b suy thoi v ph hy. Hnh vi ca con ngi l nguyn nhn ch yu ca cuc khng hong ny v cng chnh n l ngun lc duy nht gii quyt vn : h sinh thi khng th t gii quyt vn cho chng ta. Chng ta phi hiu nhng hnh vi nhn vn no l c vn v ng c thc y ng sau nhng hnh vi . Sc khe, thnh vng v cht lng cuc sng ca con ngi l gn lin vi tnh a dng, vi kh nng sn xut v cht lng ca h sinh thi m chng ta l mt phn ca n (Hnh 7). Kt qu l, tnh bn vng ph thuc vo vic ci thin v duy tr tng th phc li ca con ngi v ca h sinh thi.

X hi loi ngi l phn khng th tch ri khi h sinh tot bao quanh, ging nh lng ca qu trng b bao quanh bi lng trng. C hai th s

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bn vng ch vi iu kin c hai c duy tr v ci thin. Bt c phn h no suy thoi hoc n phng pht trin th x hi u khng bn vng.

Khng ai hiu r t hp phc li ni trn l g v lm cch no t c. S tin b ph thuc vo vic nhn din h thng, t nn mng nhng hnh ng ca chng ta trn c s t duy h thng - thng qua vic cc nhm cng dn suy ngh v hnh ng chnh tnh hung ca h. 3.2. Thc o tnh bn vng (BS) Thc o tnh bn vng (Barometer of Sustainability - BS) l cng c o lng v truyn thng phc li tng th ca x hi v s tin b theo hng bn vng do IUCN xut (1996) Nhng c trng c bn ca BS l: To ra mt bc tranh ca ton h thng ch khng ch l nhng phn ring bit c o lng bng nhng ch th ring bit. i x bnh ng cc phc li sinh thi vi phc li nhn vn. C v mt s kim tra nghim khc v cng khai cc nh gi v tnh bn vng. BS bao gm cc ch th v phc li snh thi v phc li nhn vn, cc ch th ny c gn kt thnh cc ch th tng hp v tnh bn vng m khng gy sc p ln nhau. BS cung cp mt cch thc c tnh h thng cho vic t chc v tng hp cc ch th sao cho ngi s dng c th d dng rt ra cc kt lun v iu kin nhn vn - sinh thi, nhm tr li cu hi l cng ng hin nay ang u v h ang i n u. BS c th s dng bt c t l no, t cp quc gia n a phng, nh l: Mt cng c truyn thng v phc li nhn vn v sinh thi
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theo hng bn vng. Mt cng c o lng cc phc li nhn vn v sinh thi theo hng bn vng. Mt cng c o lng cc tc ng ca tng lnh vc ln cc phc li nhn vn v sinh thi - Cc lnh vc gm: nng nghip, ng nghip, lm nghip, khai m v nng lng. Li ch ca con ngi (v d thu nhp, cng vic lm, hng ha) c th c o lng v t hp ln thang bc nhn vn (human scale). Cc sc p ln h sinh thi (nh suy thoi t, nhim nc, e da cc loi sinh vt, tc ng ln ti nguyn) cng c o lng v trnh din trn thang bc sinh thi (ecological scale). Mt phng php nh gi phc li x hi theo hng bn vng. Khi BS c s dng nh mt cng c o lng hay truyn thng, ngi s dng gp cc vn v cc ch th thnh nhng nhm m h chn. Khi BS l mt cng c nh gi, ngi s dng t chc cc ch th thnh cc hng bc ca cc b vn . La chn cc ch th: qu trnh 3 bc 1) Xc nh cc mng vn ca phc li sinh thi v phc li nhn vn. Mng vn l mt tp hp tng qut cc vn nh cn phi c xem xt. Khi BS c s dng nh mt cng c nh gi, ngi ta thng dng 10 mng, 5 thuc phc li sinh thi v 5 thuc phc li nhn vn.
Phc li sinh thi t Nc Khng kh a dng sinh hc S dng ti nguyn Phc li nhn vn Dn s - Sc khe iu kin sng Tri thc Hnh vi v t chc Bnh ng

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Ngun : IUCN 1996 [16] 2) Xc nh cc vn ct li ca tng mng. Cc vn ct li thng rng nhng khng phi lun lun l cc vn i din cho tng mng. V d: Cc vn ct li gm cht lng nc, a dng loi ch lm vic, xung t v vi phm. Vic chn la cc vn ct li ph thuc vo vic ngi ta coi ci g lm cho mng vn tr nn r rng, vn no c ng chm nhiu n con ngi, v vn no m cc ch th c th c xy dng t . 3) Xc nh ch th ca tng vn ct li. Ch th l mt php o chuyn bit ca mt vn c th, c ngi s dng la chn. V d: lng fecal colifoml, s loi b e do, t l tht nghip, t l bc s/ 1000 dn... V BS s dng mt thang bc trnh din, nn cc ch th n cng phi l cc ch th nh lng trnh din c, c ngha l c th xc nh c gi tr ca ch th. Cc ch th trung lp hoc c ngha khng r th khng c dng, v vy ch th phi l loi mong mun, c th chp nhn hoc xu (khng th chp nhn). Vic la chn ch t Ph thuc vo ci m cc ch th trnh din mun lt t lm r vn . T hp cc ch th n thnh cc ch th tng hp din t cc phc li nhn vn v sinh thi c tin hnh theo th bc t trn xung di nh sau:

Thang bc BS c th c b sung tnh c cc ngng

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v cc tc ng phi tuyn bng cch xc nh gi tr BS nm trong khong no ca cc hng sau (Hnh): 100 - 8 1 80 - 61 60 - 41 40 21 20 - 0 Bn vng Kh bn vng Trung bnh Km bn vng Khng bn vng

3.3. Phn tch h thng v quy hoch y l mt qu trnh thit k cc can thip a phng nhm nng cao s pht trin bn vng. Kt qu cn t c l mt chin lc hoc k hoch hnh ng nhm pht trin bn vng. Phng php gm: - Phn tch tnh hung v chn nh. - Xc nh u tin v cc phng n. - Pht trin chin lc v k hoch hnh ng. - Trin khai khung gim st. Phn tch tnh hung v chn nh
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y l qu trnh nh gi tnh bn vng ca ti nguyn thin nhin, phc li nhn vn v im mnh hay hn ch ca cc t chc. Ti nguyn thin nhin c th c nh gi gm: kh hu, a cht, hin trng s dng t, dc, a l t nhin, t, nc mt, nc ngm v h thng thy vn. Cc thng s sau y phn nh cc c trng c bn ca vic nh gi ti nguyn thin nhin: kh nng hin ti (tr lng), mc s dng hin ti, cht lng v tnh a dng, quan h nhn qu, c hi v ngng khai thc bn vng. nh gi phc li nhn vn m u bng vic phn hng cc nhm cng ng (v mt kinh t v x hi), nh gi mc tha mn cc nhu cu c bn, th mnh v hn ch ca nn kinh t a phng, mc pht trin ca cc n v hnh chnh khc nhau (v d lng, x) trong vng. Cn thit k cc can thip c bit i vi cc nhm cng ng hoc ph vng. N cng c th lm sng t cc sc p c bit nh khan him thc n, tiu th nc, nhim... Vic nh gi kh nng v hn ch ca cc t chc gm mt ph rng cc t chc trong vng, t t chc nh nc, t nhn, cng ng n t chc phi chnh ph. Xc nh u tin v cc phng n Lm r cc vn u tin ni tri t phn tch tnh hung v xut cc phng n hnh ng tng lai. u tin da trn cc sc p x hi gay cn, nhng c hi c c trong tng lai v nhu cu thc dng nhm m bo ng dng thnh cng. Nhm duy tr s tham gia tch cc ca cc nhm cng ng, cc can thip phi l nhng tc ng tch cc. Pht trin chin lc v k hoch hnh ng Da vo cc phng n c xc nh bc 2, pht trin khung chin lc tng cng tnh bn vng. K hoch hnh
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ng phi lm r, chi tit ha cc can thip cn tin hnh vi cc thm nh v mt k thut, x hi v kinh t cn thit. Trin khai khung gim st Trin khai bao gm xc nh cc t chc c chc nng trin khai v xc nh cc ngha v thch hp, lch trnh v ngn sch. Khung gim st bao gm cc h thng v cc ch th gim st cc cp d n v chng trnh. Khung gim st cng bao gm cc kinh nghim cn cho nhng ci tin gia k v sau ny. Phn tch h thng v quy hoch l loi cng c s dng ch yu ti thc a. Kh nng chp nhn ca x hi v cc t chc l mt tiu chun quan trng. Sc mnh ca cng c ny th hin : L mt tip cn a phng v t hp. C v s tham gia rng ri ca cc nhm quyn li thng qua qu trnh t vn. S dng t hp cc hiu bit ca cng ng cng vi cc kin thc chuyn su lp quyt nh. To ra mt dy cc phng n t mc "cao siu v khoa hc" n mc "c th chp nhn v mt x hi" thng qua mt qu trnh t vn v tha hip. Thc y s thng hiu ca cng ng v cc vn pht trin bn vng. Xy dng c s d liu h tr gim st cc tc ng ca chng trnh v quy hoch tng lai. Lng ghp cc sng kin pht trin a phng v nhng n lc cp khu vc (vng). 3.4. Thp hnh ng Thp hnh ng (Pyramid of Action - PA) l mt cng c trc
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quan c xy dng nhm khi pht t duy ca mi ngi v nhng iu h c th lm cho chnh mnh, gim bt s trng ngng vo nhng ngun ti tr t c quan bn ngoi v t pha Nh Nc (Hnh 9). Thp gm 3 tng:

3.5. nh gi v quy hoch pht trin bn vng nng thn y l mt kiu phng php cng tham gia nh gi tnh bn vng ca nng thn v hnh ng quy hoch. Phng php gm 2 giai on, u s dng cc cng c c v s tham gia ca cng ng. nh gi tnh bn vng nng thn iu tra cc iu kin v sinh thi, nhn vn v chun b cho quy hoch hnh ng. Giai on ny nhm h tr nng dn v nhm chuyn gia chia s v thng nht nhn nh v cc phc li sinh thi cng nh nhn vn s cn thit ca cc hnh ng m cng ng c th chp nhn. Quy hoch hnh ng cho s bn vng nng thn Bc ny gm 2 cng on. (1) Ngi a phng t chun b k hoch hnh ng, gm xc nh mt s vn u tin, hnh ng u tin m a phng cn trin khai gii quyt cc vn
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u tin ny, nhng hnh ng b sung m h tin hnh vi s h tr t ngoi (v d o to cng c, thit b, ti chnh), nhng h tr cn thit, k c h tr t bn ngoi. (2) Nhm chuyn gia phi hp nh gi vi ngi a phng v tnh thc tin ca k hoch v v s tha thun ca cng ng. ng thi, ngi a phng v nhm chuyn gia lm r cc gi thuyt lm c s ca k hoch v xy ng cc ch th nh gi cc gi thuyt, s tin b ca k hoch v hiu qu. 3.5.1. nh gi tnh bn vng nng thn y l giai on u, ch yu c trin khai ti a bn cng vi dn lng. Bc ny cn bt u bng vic su tp cc ti liu th cp v t chc thc a. Cng vic ca bc ny gm: - Xy dng hiu bit chung. - Tip cn phng vn v i thoi. Phng php yu cu ngi tham gia chia s v thng nht cc nhn thc v quan h cht ch gia phc li nhn vn v phc li sinh thi. Cc cu hi cht trong giai on ny gm: - Cht lng sng th no? - H sinh thi ca chng ta tnh trng no? - Con ngi v h sinh thi tng tc nh th no? Giai on nh gi gm 3 cng on: Cng on 1: Nhm nh gi gii thch d n v s dng thp hnh ng nhn mnh chin lc cng ng ph thuc ch yu vo hnh ng ca chnh ngi dn. Nhm gii thiu m hnh qu trng mi ngi nhn thc c h l mt phn hu c ca h sinh thi, phc li nhn vn v phc li sinh thi cn phi c ci thin ng thi. Tip theo, trnh by khung BS nhn mnh tng ny, ng
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thi cung cp cho cng ng mt cng c do phc li nhn vn v phc li sinh thi. Dn lng xc nh tng bc thang (t xu n tt) theo tiu chun ca h. Sau h tho lun v tr hin nay ca cng ng trn tng thang bc v lit k cc yu t ng gp vo phc li sinh thi v nhn vn. Cng on 2: Cng ng lm r cc iu kin ca h sinh thi bng cch xc nh tng t phn ca h thng (rng, sng, t ngp nc, t chn th, t trng trt, khu nh c); nhng ngi tham gia c a ra lm hai nhm: mt nhm nh gi hin trng, mt nhm nh gi hi c Xy dng cc biu lm r s bin i ca tng t phn: din tch, iu kin, a dng sinh hc, sn xut v dch v. Kt qu tho lun ca mi nhm c trnh by v tho lun bui hp chung t c s tha thun hoc ghi nhn cc bt ng Trn c s , tip tc lm r iu kin sng ca con ngi (phc li nhn vn). Cc nhm kim tra cc khi nim tnh trng v khuynh hng trong cc lnh vc lng thc thc phm, phc li, ngho i, h tng c s, sc khe dn s, nhn thc, t chc. Kt qu tho lun nhm mt ln na li c trnh by v tho lun hi trng chung. Cng on 3: Cng ng xy dng k hoch hnh ng. Trc ht xem xt li BS xem h c cn thit phi xc nh li v tr ca cng ng trn thang BS hay khng. Tho lun cch thc nhm ci thin v tr trn thang (theo hng tt hn) sau xy dng k hoch hnh ng nhm thc hin . 3.5.2. Lp k hoch hnh ng bn vng nng thn y l giai on 2 ca phng php. Sau khi kt thc giai on 1 - khi tho k hoch hnh ng, giai on 2 m u bng
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kho st thc t cng vi ngi a phng, nhm kim tra tnh kh thi ca k hoch v gp g vi cc t chc, c quan lin quan cc cp quc gia v a phng. C s ca giai on ny l tho lun. Cu hi cht giai on ny l: Xc nh cc vn u tin cn phi vt qua ci thin tnh trng sinh thi v nhn vn hin thi. Xc nh nguyn nhn v hiu qu ca nhng vn . Xc nh cc hnh ng cn trin khai gii quyt vn v cc nguyn nhn ca chng. Lm cch no trin khai hnh ng. Lm cch no nhn ra rng tnh hnh tr nn tt ln hay xu i. Phng php ny c v s thng thuyt gia nhng ngi a phng v nhng g h mun lm v nhng g cn phi lm. Vai tr ca cc chuyn gia bn ngoi l h tr cc iu kin khuyn khch ngi a phng tham gia vo vic lp ra nhng quyt nh tp th, c gi tr. y thc ra l mt phng php hip thng. Cc nhm quyn li khc nhau - gi/ tr, nam/ n, ngi c/ ngi mi nh c, cc nhm dn tc... c cc quyn li khc nhau nn quan tm n cc chin lc hnh ng khc nhau. Cc nhm khc nhau ny cn phi th hin v cung cp cc thng tin thch hp xy dng cc phng n sao cho h c th tho lun mt cch ch ng quyt nh. Tt nhin khng th gii quyt n tha mi quan im khc nhau, nhng t nht ngi a phng cn c by t v hiu bit ln nhau v c s ca vic lp quyt nh phi cng khai. Mc tiu ca giai on 2 l h tr cng ng a phng xy dng k hoch hnh ng m chnh h s thc hin. Thng thng, vic nghin cu thc t cng vi ngi a phng cn khong 3
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ngy. Khi k hoch hnh ng c chnh sa v chp nhn, th cn xy dng b ch th n dng lm cng c nh gi cc gi thit c s ca k hoch hnh ng, cng nh gim st cc thnh qu ca k hoch. Mt c trng c bn ca phng php ny l cng ng t chn v thit k cc ch th ca h. 3.6. Thng thuyt chin lc y l phng php s dng trong kinh doanh v hoch nh chnh sch. Mc ch ca phng php l: t c s tha thun v phng n ti u nhm gii quyt nhiu vn pht trin bn vng. Quyt nh c cc tha thun v trch nhim ca cc nhm quyn li v i hi cc nhm phi thc thi cc hnh ng ca h.

Thng thuyt chin lc l mt qu trnh i thoi, c trin khai tt khi tt c cc bn u c mc ng u v thng tin, k nng truyn thng v quyn lc. Trn thc t t gp nhng iu kin nh vy. V th, qu trnh thng pht trin dn dn: hng lot cuc i thoi, di chuyn dn dn t s chia s thng tin n i thoi c, ri n thng thuyt chin lc. Phng php thng thuyt chin lc gm 4 bc c bn: Chia s thng tin: cc bn chia s thng tin v xy dng hiu bit chung v mc tiu ca thng thuyt. nh gi quan im: cc bn cng nh gi quan im ca nhau v lm sng t cc vn cn xem xt v cc tr ngi ch yu. Xy dng tha thun: bao gm mt chui i thoi v tha hip gia cc bn, yu cu cc bn phi li im ny v xem
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xt cc tha thun ca chnh mnh trc khi i n tha hip cui cng. Hon tt tha thun: bn tha thun phi xy dng tng hng mc chi tit. Lm r chc trch v c ch gim st cng nh tnh ton. Cc hng mc phi d tho di dng thun li cho tt c cc bn s dng. Mc d ton b qu trnh thng thuyt thu ht nhiu bn, nhng nn xut pht qu trnh t nhng i thoi song phng. V d, c th i thoi gia cc nhm quyn li trc tip v gin tip. gia nhm quyn li v nhm bn ngoi. Nhm bn ngoi cn tham gia vi hai vai tr: vai tr ngi thng thuyt chnh v vai tr ngi t chc - c v qu trnh. Nhng iu cn ch khi s dng phng php thng thuyt chin lc Phng php hu ch khi i thoi c khi u vi cc t chc chnh thc hn l vi cc t chc (cc nhm) khng chnh thc. Phng php hu ch khi s dng trong tt c cc giai on ca qu trnh quy hoch - trin khai - nh gi. Phng php hu ch khi cc nhm ng nht. Nu cc nhm khng ng nht nn kt hp vi cc phng php khc. 3.7. Biu SAM Biu SAM (Sustainability Assessment Mapping) do Clayton xut nm 1997 [9]. Cc kt qu ca phn tch v th c th c biu din dng biu , khin cho cc thng tin tr nn d tip cn. SAM l cng c biu dng trnh din cc thng tin v th v h tr vic lp quyt nh. Mc ch ca SAM l:
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Trc quan ha trng thi mt h thng bng mt mt phng a th nguyn.

Lm r cc tho thun vn b n du trong mi tham s ca h thng. H tr cc t chc nhm xc nh mc tiu v u tin ca chng. Lm cho ton b qu trnh lp quyt nh tr thnh r rng v trc quan. Cc nh kin, s chp nhn v phn on gi tr l khng th trnh c, nhng chng khng phi bao gi cng bc l r rng. Chng thng nh hng ln qu trnh lp quyt nh nhng cch thc khng r, khng chnh xc v khng th thm tra c. Lm cho tt c cc u vo tr nn cng khai, cng gip cho vic qun l c nng cp. L cng c gio dc v trc quan. V c bn, SAM l mt dng biu hnh trn, trong , mi mt mng vn (tc l mi tham s ca h thng) c trnh din trn din tch ca mt hnh qut. Hin trng ca mi mng l din tch c bi en ca hnh qut tnh t tm hnh trn. Nu t c gi tr k vng, phn bi en s l ton b din tch hnh qut. Kt qu biu din cho php nhn din ngay c hin trng vn . Cc kch bn hoc kt qu tng lai c th c s dng to ra cc biu khc. Nhng biu ny sau c phn loi, s lm r cc sc p dc k tha mi phng n c chn. Bc u tin ca SAM l xc nh cc mng vn (cc tham s) cc mng sau c th c phn loi theo tm quan trng (theo trng s). V d nu mt s mng quan trng nht l mi trng, th chng phi c sc nng mc phn bit mt phi l cc thay i trong dng vn mi trng vi pha khc l cc thay i trong loi ti nguyn khng nhy cm (c th c n b bi cc kt qu u ) Tng t, nu mt mng quan trng l
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kinh t, th chng phi nhy cm phn bit gia cc yu t sng cn ca cc i tc hoc doanh nghip lin quan, vi cc yu t c th c chp nhn c th nhng i qua li. Cc ngun thng tin c th c s dng di dng tch ri hay t hp. Vic tnh ton cc chi ph mi trng trc tip hay gin tip, xui hay ngc, dng ti nguyn v nh gi tc ng mi trng ca mt d n l mt qu trnh tn km v phc tp. Nhiu phng php c xut gii quyt vn ny hin nay cn cha c thng nht. V th, thng thng cn phi loi b mt s thng tin v phi s dng mt biu dng t hp (nhng c n gin ha) trnh din mt hin tng phc tp. Gi tr ca phng php l ch s dng cc trc cho php so snh gia cc phng n, lm cho cc la chn tr nn cng khai v trc quan khin cho lun lun c th xc nh v kim tra cc tnh ton. SAM thc cht l cch trnh din tt c cc th nguyn (cc tham s) c trng ca h thng ln cng mt mt phng. SAM l mt phng a th nguyn. V hin trng ca h thng khng bao gi t c gi tr k vng (gi tr ny trng vi hnh trn), nn SAM thc t bao gi cng c trng bng mt ranh gii g gh. Ngoi ra, SAM c th c v theo kiu chng gi ng tm, do cc tc ng a phng, khu vc v ton cu c th c minh ha trn cng mt biu trn ng tm vi 3 ng trn c bn knh khc nhau. So snh gia cc SAM ca cc phng n khc nhau, hoc gia mt SAM l tng vi mt SAM thc t c xy dng trn cng mt h trc, c th lm r cc sc p. Mc ch ca SAM l lm cho cc sc p tr thnh cng khai hn, trc quan hn, cho php gn kt cc mng vn nghin cu vi cc vn lng gi trong cng mt m hnh duy nht (bng cch cho php cc t l khng tng ng), lm cho cc qu
72

trnh lp quyt nh tr nn d tip cn, lm sng t v th, s tha thun, gip cho vic xc nh dy cc phng n, to kh nng gim st c hiu qu hn i vi cc tc ng do cc quyt nh gy ra theo thi gian. V d: Biu SAM trnh by trng thi nhng vn bc xc ca mi trng tnh Ninh Thun nm 1998 - 1999 v trng thi k vng nm 2005 ca Chin lc Mi trng tnh Ninh Thun (Hnh 10), c thit k da trn trc t s.

Ghi ch: Cc mng I V sinh mi trng v nc sch nng thn II Nhn thc mi trng ca cng ng III Phng chng nhim IV Nng lc qun l mi trng 6,99 / 19,5. 5,65 / 15,0. 6,65 / 12,0. 6,325 / 11,5.
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V che ph rng Vi Din tch IPM VII Qun l chn th gia sc c sng VIII Kim sot nhim mn IX ng x tai bin mi trng 3.8. Biu Downjone sinh thi EDI

9,90 / 10,5. 7,70 / 10,0. 2,29/ 8,0. 0,66 / 7,0. 1,2 / 6,0.

Biu EDI (Ecological Downjone Index) dc Brink xut ln u nm 1991 [8]. Thot u, EDI dng nh gi mt h sinh thi t nhin v c nh ngha nh sau: EDI l hiu s gia gi tr k vng v gi tr hin ti ca h sinh thi. Gi tr hin ti c trnh by trn vng trn ca biu AMOEBA (loi biu SAM p dng cho h sinh thi t nhin). EDI l tng khong cch t y hnh qut hin trng n vng trn k vng ca ton b h thng (Hnh 11).

Gi:

Ri l trc gi tr k vng ca thnh t i (ch th i) R1i l gi tr t c thin trng) ca thnh t i n l s thnh t ca h thng

C th p dng biu EDI cho mt h thng sinh thi nhn

74

vn bng cch thay biu AMOEBA bng SAM v gn cho EDI bao gm c cc thnh t ca mng phc li nhn vn. Mt khc c th ci bin cch tnh EDI ca Brink bng cch lng ha cc ch th nh xc nh trng s h thng WS; (Weight of System) ca tng ch th nh sau: - Gi trng thi k vng ca c h thng WS l 100% (1,00); - Gi tr trng s h thng ca thnh t i l WSI ta c:

- Gi tr thc t ca thnh t i l:

Gi tr thc t ca c h thng l:

T ta tnh c EDI EDI = WS - WI= 100 - WI Gi tr EDI bao gm trong khong t 0 n 100, c th biu din trn tht trc thng. Trc ny c 2 im khc bit: EDI = 30 Ngng an ton EDI = 70 Ngng tai bin. Gi s gi tr EDI ca mt h thng l 48 ta c v tr ca h trn biu EDI nh Hnh 12.

75

Hai im c bit chia biu EDI thnh 3 khong: A: Khong s c, suy thoi ca h thng. B: Khong c vn ca h thng. C: Khong an ton ca h thng. Quan st biu EDI c th thy ngay h thng nghin cu nm trong khong "c vn ". Cc gii php ci thin mi trng hng vo vic gim st EDI, trc ht chuyn v tr n ngng an ton (EDI = 30) v sau l a h thng n v tr tt hn trong khong C (EDI < 30). 3.9. Kin to ch s Nhng khi nim c bn Ch s (index) v ch th (indicator) l nhng thng tin c trng, c ng, n gin v nh lng, phn nh bn cht ca mt h thng (nu l ch s) hoc bn cht ca mt yu t, mt t phn, mt tnh cht ca h thng (nu l ch th). Index c xy dng t t hp cc indicators, tuy nhin khng nht thit khi kin to ch s u phi xy dng ch s, nhiu trng hp, nh gi mt tnh cht, mt tham s ca h thng, ch cn xc nh mt vi ch th l . Phng php xc lp ch s v hoc ch th nh lng c gi chung l phng php kin to ch s. Cc thng tin c trng nhng khng nh lng khng c gi l ch st hay ch th, m c gi l cc tiu ch hoc trong mt s trng hp, cn gi l cc du hiu c trng. V d, s tng trng kinh t phi nng nghip trng mt cng ng nng
76

thn l tiu ch, nhng s tng trng nu c o bng t l gia thu nhp phi nng nghip so vi tng thu nhp ca cng ng, s l mt ch th. Kin to ch s da theo nguyn tc sau: Tiu ch (du hiu c trng) + php o nh lng = ch th Nh vy ch th l mt s o thng c n v (c th nguyn) T hp cc ch th = ch s Ch s l mt php o khng c n v (khng c th nguyn) v cc ch th khc nhau c th nguyn khc nhau; khi chng c t hp li cc n v o s b loi b. V d: Ch s pht trin nhn vn HDI ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin hp quc (UNDP) l mt ch s (khng th nguyn) c tr s t 0 n 1 . HDI c xy dng t 3 ch th: - Thu nhp bnh qun (o bng la tng ng). - Tui th bnh qun (o bng nm). Trnh hc vn (o bng s nm n trng bnh qun v t l ngi ln trn 15 tui bit ch). Lch s ca phng php Quy mt h thng phc tp thnh mt vi ch s hay ch th n gin tin tnh ton, nh gi v so snh l mt nhu cu bc xc trong lnh vc kinh t - x hi. V th, xut pht im ca kin to ch s hnh thnh rt sm trong lnh vc dn s hc (v d mn tng s TFR, cc ch s di c, nhp c, t vong, tr s sinh. . .) v lnh vc kinh t hc (v d cc ch s GDP, GNP, tc tng trng kinh t, thu nhp bnh qun trn u ngi. . .). Cc ch s ni trn ngy nay vn ang c s dng. Tuy nhin, vi nhng c gng khng mt mi, UNDP trong thp nin 1990 xy dng c s ton hc vng chc v ng dng trong vic xut hng lot cc ch s nh gi pht trin nh HDI (ch s pht trin con ngi),
77

GDI (ch s pht trin gii). CPM ( o ngho tim nng), HPI (ch s ngho nhn vn) v.v. . . S n r cc ch s nh gi pht trin ny nh du s ra i ca kin to ch s nh mt h phng php o lng v nh gi pht trin chnh thc. Vo nhng nm cui ca th k 20 (1996 - 1998) n nay, cc nh khoa hc pht trin v ng dng kin to ch s trong vic nh gi h thng mi trng v pht trin. Cc ch s o bn vng BS (IUCN, 1998), ch s bn vng a phng LSI (Nath and Talay, 1998) l nhng vin gch mng u tin cho vic xy dng cc ch s nh lng c yu t mi trng. Kin to ch s, hin nay tr thnh mt phng php mnh ang tip tc pht trin v c ng dng ngy cng rng ri, trong phn tch v nh gi h thng mi trng v pht trin. Nguyn tc ca kin to ch s Mt ch s hay ch th phi c xy dng theo cc nguyn tc c bn sau: - nh lng hoc phi c lng ha (cho im) tr thnh nh lng. y l mt php o khch quan khng ph thuc vo ngi tnh ton. - n gin v d tnh ton c th tnh nhanh vi chi ph r v d cp nht. - Phi tnh i din cho ton h thng (ch s) hay mt tnh cht c trng ca h thng (ch th). Cc bc kin to ch s - Bc 1: Phn tch chc nng, cu trc ca h thng xc nh cc tiu ch nh gi, mi tiu ch phn nh mt chc nng hoc tnh cht ca mt yu t ct- trc c bn ca h thng. Mi h thng c th xc nh n tiu ch vi n 1 , tuy nhin n khng nn qu nhiu trnh phc tp ha cch tnh.
78

- Bc 2: Xc nh cch o lng cc tiu ch. Mi tiu ch c th c mt n v o ring; trn c s , xc nh mt ch th cho mi tiu ch. Trong trng hp o lng tnh tri ca mt h thng, ch cn 1 tiu ch, khi h thng ch c 1 ch th duy nht, nn ch th ny cng chnh l ch s. - Bc 3: Trit tiu th nguyn ca cc ch th. tnh ch s tng hp t n ch th cn b th nguyn (n v) ca cc ch th bng phng trnh tng quan.

trong : Ii: ch th th i Ithc o ch th th i hin trng ca h thng nghin cu Imax gi tr k vng ca ch th th i trong h thng. Imin gi in cc tiu ca ch th th i trong h thng. - Bc 4: Xc nh trng s Ci ca cc ch th. Cc ch th Ii c th c sc nng (trng s) Ci ngang nhau (Ci = 1) hoc khc nhau. C 3 phng php xc nh trng s C: + Nu cc ch th n l tng ng th trng s ca cc ch th c th coi bng nhau v u bng 1,0. + Da vo kinh nghim thc tin c th gn cho cc ch th cc trng s Ci khc nhau. V d: Nath v Talay (1998) gn trng s cho cc ch th tnh ch s Bn vng a phng (LSI) nh sau: Ii:T l tr v thnh nin khng phm php, Ci = 2,0. I2: T l s dn c dng nc sch. C2= 4,0.
79

I3: T l s ngy khng b nhim khng kh trong mt nm, I4: T h tr s sinh khng t vong, C4= 2,0. I5: T l din tch t khng b nhim C5 = 1,0. Tng C = 12,0. Vic gn trng s thng gy ra tranh ci v th ch c s dng khi tc gi ca trng s l nhng nh nghin cu c uy tn hoc vic ng dng ca ch s vi cc trng s cho trong thc tin t ra nhy cm v hiu qu. + Da vo bnh chn u tin ca cc chuyn gia (c trnh by mc 3.10). - Bc 5: Tnh ton ch s. Phng php n gin v ph bin nht tnh ton ch s l tnh trung bnh cng n gin hoc trung bnh cng kt hp ly tha. + Phng php trung bnh cng n gin: V d ch s o ngho tim nng CPM (Capabiity Poverty Measure) (UNDP, 1997).

I1 : T l tr em di 5 tui b suy dinh dng. I2: T l s ca sinh khng c chm sc bi nhn vin y t c o to. I3: T l ph n t 15 tui tr ln b m ch. + Phng php trung bnh cng kt hp ly tha: V d ch s Ngho nhn vn HPI (Human Poverty Index) (UNDP, 1996).

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trong : I1: T l s ngi cht yu trc 40 tui. I2: T l s ngi t 15 tui tr ln m ch. I31: T l s ngi khng c dng nc sch. I32: T l dn s khng c hng phc li y t. I33: T l tr em di 5 tui b suy dinh dng. Ch rng 2 phng php trn u c p dng cho trng hp Ci = 1,0. Vi Ci 1,0 chng ta c phng trnh tng qut tnh ch s:

V d ch s Bn vng a phng LSI nu trn:

Vi phng php tnh ton ni trn, khong bin thin ca ch s l 0,0 (km nht) n 1,0 (tt nht). tin phn tch ngi ta c th chia khong bin thin ra nhng khong nh hn, v d: T 0 n <0,20 T 0,02 n < 0,04 T 0,04 n < 0,06 T 0,06 n < 0,08 T 0,08 n 1 ,0 : Ti t, rt km. : Km. : Trung bnh. : Kh. : Tt.
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3.10. Phng php xc nh u tin v trng s u tin Vic xc nh th t u tin cho cc tiu ch trong mt h thng mi trng v pht trin nhiu tiu ch l mt vic lm kh khn v s khc nhau trong quan im nh gi ca chuyn gia. D c tho lun hip thng mt thi gian n u, cch nhn nhn v tm quan trng ca tng tiu ch cng vn gy tranh ci. Phng php trung lp nhanh nht v d c chp nhn l phng php pht phiu bnh chn v tnh ton, da vo cc tin sau: - Cc phiu bnh chn u c gi tr ngang nhau, bt k s khc nhau v ngnh ngh, trnh chuyn mn, hc vn v v tr x hi ca chuyn gia nh th no. - Khong cch gia cc hng bc u tin u bng nhau v gi tr nh lng: s khc bit gia bc u tin (n) v bc (n+1) l bng nhau. Phng php c tin hnh qua cc bc sau: - Bc 1: Xy dng ma trn bnh chn Gi s h thng c xc nh qua n tiu ch, mi tiu ch s c o lng bng 1 ch th Ii = 1 n), chng ta s xy dng ma trn gm n hng vi n ct, mi hng dnh cho vic tng hp cc phiu bu chn cho cc bc u tin khc nhau ca tiu ch i, mi ct dnh cho vic tng hp s phiu bu chn ca tt c cc tiu ch i cng mt bc u tiu. Ma trn bnh chn c dng nh sau: Bng 2. Ma trn bnh chn
Cc bc u tin Tiu ch I1 I2 In I n II n-1 n 1

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S im chnh lch gia mi mc bnh chn l 1,0 (mc thp nht th n, s c Wn = 1,0), mc cao nht (u tin I, s c WI = n). K hiu s im l Wij. V d, nu c 10 tiu ch phi xp bc u tin t I n X th: u tin I (10 im), u tin II (10 - 1 = 9 im), u tin X (l im). Ngi bnh chn c nhim v chia n tiu ch vo n bc u tin, so nu gi mij l s phiu bnh chn cho tiu ch i bc j, th tng s phiu bnh chn theo hng ngang phi ng bng tng s chuyn gia. Tng s phiu theo mi ct dc s bng tng s chuyn gia, nu ngi bnh chn khng chn t hai tiu ch tr ln vo cng bc u tin. Tng s phiu ca mi ct s khc tng s chuyn gia: nu ngi b chn xp hai tiu ch tr ln vo cng mt bc u tin. Trng hp ny s c tiu ch khng c chn. Bc 2: tnh ton s im (qij) ca mi bc u tin j ca mi tiu ch i. qij = mij x Wij V d bc u tin th I, tiu ch i c 5 phiu, bc u tin hai tiu ch i c 2 phiu, ta c: qiI = 5n qiII = 2 (n- 1 ) - Bc 3: tnh tng s im (Qi) m tiu ch i t c tt c cc hng bc bnh chn

S khc nhau ca Qi cho php xc nh mc u tin ca cc tiu ch i. Bc 4: tnh W l tng im ca c h thng, tc l ca mi tiu ch t c tt c cc bc u tin.
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- Bc 5: Xc nh trng s Ci ca mi tiu ch bng cch cho W=100% (= 1,0) Ci = Qi/W Ci tnh theo phng ph ny bao gi cng l s l, c gi tr trong khong t 0,0 n 1,0. Ci chnh l t l gia im s bnh chn ca chuyn gia cho ch th Ii tt c cc bc u tin. Bi tp minh ha Hy xc nh th t u tin v trng s Ci ca cc tiu ch xc nh h thng v sinh mi trng ca mt im dn c nng thn, vi s chuyn gia tham gia bnh chn l 10 ngi. Kt qu tnh ton c th hin trong ma trn tng hp sau. Khi tng hp kt qu bnh chn ca 10 chuyn gia ( mi , t s l s phiu chn, mu s l s im qi t c) Bng 3. V d v ma trn bnh chn
Cc bc u tin Tiu ch I 5 I1: Cp nc sch I2: Qun l chung tri gia sc I3: Qun l rc thi I4: Qun l HCBVTV II 4 III 3 IV 2 V 1 Qi 34 29 Ci 0,223 0,191

3 15
3 15 1 15 1 5

3 12
1 4 1 4 2 8

1 3
1 3 2 6 2 6

1 2
2 4 1 2 1 2

2 2
3 3 5 5 4 4

32 25

0,211 0,264

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I5: V Sinh an ton thc phm

2 10

3 12

1 3

3 6

1 1

32

0,21 1

Ch : T s l s phiu bnh chn cho 1 bc u tin, mu s l tng im bnh chn ca bc . W : 34 + 29 + 32 + 25 + 32 = 152 = 100% Ci : Qi/W c th l mt s v t, cn lm trn sao cho tng Ci = 1,0 3.11. Phn tch khung logic - LFA Lch s v mc tiu ca phn tch khung logic (Logical Framework( Analysis LFA) LFA l h phng php s dng tip cn h thng trong vic xy dng v thm nh d n, ti nghin cu, la chn phng n. . . (t y tr i gi chung l d n), c p dng ln u tin ti c quan Vin tr Hoa K vo cui nhng nm 1960 [3]. Cho n nay, LFA l phng php bt buc thc hin trong xy dng v thm nh d n ti cc nc pht trin, cng nh cc nc ang pht trin nu mun nhn ti tr hay vay vn ca cc t chc h tr pht trin quc t. Mc tiu ca LFA l tnh ton mi yu t c trng v cn thit m bo cho mt d n i ng hng v t c mc tiu ca d n. Cc yu t ca mt khung logic Khung logic l mt ma trn c lp y bng cc yu t buc phi phn tch, bao gm: - Mc tiu chin lc: l mc tiu di hn m d n gp phn cng vi cc d n khc nhau t c. Mc tiu chin lc phn nh tnh tri ca thng h m mc tiu ca tng d n c th l tnh tri ca mi h thng d n. Cn trnh xc nh tnh tri ca
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thng h qu tham vng hoc khng c gii hn r rng. V d khng nn t mc tiu chin lc l "xo i gim ngho huyn X m nn xc nh r "D n nhm thay th ton b nh tm bng nh bn kin c v kin c ca huyn X". - Mc tiu ca d n: m t cc hiu qu k vng ca d n. Mc tiu ca d n l mc tiu c th, din t s mong mun ca d n, nhng n khng hon ton nm trong s kim sot ca d n v cn tu thuc vo u vo v cc yu t bn ngoi nh hng n d n. Mc tiu ca d n xc nh ln ca d n v phng din ti nguyn, ngun lc v phng cch thc hin. Mt d n ch c mt mc tiu, nu c t 2 mc tiu tr ln th gi l chng trnh. Chng trnh c t 2 d n tr ln. - u ra ca d n: l kt qu c th s t c nh cc hot ng ca d n v c d n m bo. u ra phn nh quyn lc ca d n, cn mc tiu ca d n khng ch bao gm cc u ra m cn chu nh hng ca cc yu t bn ngoi. - Hot ng: bao gm cc hnh ng cn lm to ra u ra. Mi u ra cn 1 hot ng; mi hot ng cn mt hay mt s hnh ng. Mi hot ng trong thit k d n cn hng vo vic to ra mt u ra c th, nu hot ng khng dn ti u ra th cn b loi b. u vo: l iu kin cn, l c s d n sn xut ra cc u ra d tnh. u vo c th l cc ngun lc, nhn lc, ti lc, vt lc tn lc, qun l, thi gian. . . tm li l mi th cn thit m bo u ra ca d n. - Cc yu t bn ngoi: l nhng iu kin , phi c d n thnh cng, nhng li nm ngoi tm kim sot trc tip ca d n. Nhng yu t bn ngoi c c trng l cn cho d n, quan trng, hon ton c th xy ra nhng khng chc chn. Nu c mt yu t khng quan trng, hoc chc chn c, hoc
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t kh nng c th khng phi l yu t bn ngoi, cn loi b khi xy dng d n. Yu t quan trng nhng t kh nng xy ra c gi l yu t "git cht" d n. V d d n "xy dng bi chn lp cht thi" s khng th da vo yu t "git cht" l "c Ngn hng chu cho vay u i 1 triu la M". - Ch th xc minh: cc mc tiu chin lc, mc tiu d n v u ra phi c xc minh bng cc ch th nh lng, c nh vi gi c hp l. Ch th xc minh phi tr li cho cc cu hi: bao nhiu? Ci g? Cho ai? Khi no? Bao lu? u? Ch th phi ch r phng tin thch hp xc minh, gi c hp l. Tt c cc yu t trn phi lp y mt khung logic nh sau: Bng 4. Mu khung logic
Mc tiu chin lc Mc tiu ca d n Cc u ra Cc hot ng Cc ch th xc minh Cc ch th xc minh Cc ch th xc minh Cc u vo Cc yu t bn ngoi Cc yu t bn ngoi Cc yu t bn ngoi

Nh vy, mt khung logic c xy dng vi trit l h thng nh sau: vi cc yu t bn ngoi ( d tnh) xy ra v c cc u vo theo yu cu, th cc hot ng s c thc hin, tt yu s m bo u ra; khi u ra c m bo th mc tiu ca d n l hin thc c th xc minh c, chc chn ng gp tt (qua ch th xc minh) mc tiu chin lc ca chng trnh. Nhc im ca LFA - LFA l mt cng c phn tch trung lp, v vy c phn cng nhc khi p dng cho cc h thng nhn vn mm v m. cc h thng ny, cc yu t bn ngoi v cc u vo nhiu khi bin ng kh lng; cc hot ng cng ph thuc rt nhiu vo bi cnh a phng v ngun cung cp ti chnh thiu mch lc. S iu chnh qu nhiu v u vo, hot ng v cc yu t bn ngoi nhiu khi lm cho phn tch LFA ch cn l hnh thc.
87

- LFA ch thc s c hiu qu khi cc bn tham gia d n u nm c phng php. nhiu trng hp, cc d n a phng khi s dng LFA li pht sinh thm nhu cu o to, tp hun. . . lm tng kinh ph d n. V d minh ho: S dng LFA lp d n "Xy dng m hnh cng ng tham gia qun l rc sinh hot ti phng X, 500 h, 2000 dn" Bng 5. V d v LFA
Mc tiu ca chin lc: Qun Ch th xc minh: Thu gom, l trit rc sinh hot ca vn chuyn 90% rc thi phng X. trong ngy n a im tp kt ca Cng ty Mi trng th Mc tiu ca d n: Xy dng ch th xc minh: m hnh thu gom v vn 1. Thu c ph rc t chuyn rc c s tham gia ca 90% s h tr ln. cng ng, t trang tri chi ph 2. Thnh lp t thu gom rc t qun, c trang b tt v c trch nhim, c tay ngh. Yu t bn ngoi: 1. UBND phng phi hp h tr t chc t thu gom, thu ph v vn ng nhn dn rc ng gi, ng ni quy nh. 2. S phi hp vn chuyn rc t phng ra bi rc 1 thnh Ph.

88

Cc u ra:

Ch th xc minh:

Yu t bn ngoi. 1 . Cng ty Mi trng th vn chuyn rc t trm trung chuyn n bi rc thnh ph 1 ln mi ngy vo sau 11 h m. 2. UBND phng cho php a im t 50 thng rc v 1 trm trung chuyn rc. 3. Hi ng nhn dn ra quyt anh thu ph v phng thc s dng ph v sinh.

1 . T thu gom c k thut. sc 1. T chc t thu gom 10 khe v trch nhim. ngi, b nhim t trng v c 2 ngi d b. Trang b dng c thu gom rc v trang b bo h lao ng 2. Trang b 5 xe y, 10 xng, 20 chi, 20 b qun cho cng nhn. o bo h, 20 b gng tay, C cc thit b sa cha v bo m, giy v khu trang. dng dng c 3. t 50 thng rc phn 2. T thu ph v sinh do Hi tn trong phng. ph n phng ph trch. 4. Xc lp 1 v t tp kt 3. L trnh (im, tuyn) v rc trung chuyn. tn sut thu gom hp l 5. Sa li ton b tuyn ng 4. Phng thc s dng hp l vn hnh xe y. ph v sinh. 6. 10% ph rc th lao cho ngi thu ph, 20% dnh cho sa cha nh trang b, 70% dnh tr lng cho cng nhn. 7. Tn sut thu gom ng hm 1 ln/ ngy, ng ph gom vt vo ban ngy.

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Hot ng:

u vo:

Yu t bn ngoi. 1 . S ch o st sao ca ng u v UBND phng. 2. Cn b Cng ty Mi trng tham gia o to cng nhn. 3. Cn b Qun l Mi trng qun hng dn thc hin truyn thng. 4. S tham gia ca cc on th, nht l Hi ph n.

1. T chc v tp hun nghip 1. Thi gian: 1 nm. v cho t thu gom v thu ph. 2. Kinh ph ban u (dnh 2. Vn hnh trm sa cha, cho nghin cu. hun bo dng, thay th trang b. luyn, truyn thng, trang b ban u): 100 triu. 3. Hp t dn ph v cc on 3. Thnh lp ban iu hnh th chnh tr trong phng. d n: 3 ngi. 4. Tin hnh truyn thng v qun l rc. 4. Chi ph hot ng ca ban iu hnh d n trong 1 5. Nghin cu xy dng l nm. trnh thu gom.

3.12. Phn tch SWOT * Gii thiu phng php SWOT l ch vit tt t cc t ting Anh: Strength (im mnh), Weaklless (im yu), Opportunity (c hi) v Threat (e do). Phn tch SWOT gip cho vic lm r 4 mt trn y la chn phng n hay gii php ti u, trnh sa vo cc quyt nh ch quan. - im mnh v im yu i hi phi phn tch cc ngun lc bn trong h thng bng cch kim k ti nguyn v vn ca h thng, cu trc v mng phn hi ca h thng. Cc ngun lc rt a dng, nhng tp trung vo cc kha cnh: nhn lc, ti lc (kinh ph), vt liu (trang thit b, nguyn liu...), tin lc (thng tin), thi lc (qu thi gian), ngun lc qun l - lnh o - iu hnh. - C hi v e da l nhng nh gi v mi trng bn ngoi h thng. C hi chnh l nhng thun li ca u vo, l mi tng tc thun li vi cc h thng khc, l thi c... e da bao gm cc sc p cc cn tr, cc kh khn bn ngoi tc ng vo
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h thng... c th l nhng e da cng khai hay tim n trong mi trng ca h thng. * V d minh ha: Mt doanh nghip cng nghip c cng ngh lc hu gy nhim nghim trng trong phm vi th. Cn phi di chuyn ra khi th hoc li nhng phi thay i sang cng ngh mi t nhim. Doanh nghip s chn phng n no? (Bng 6) Bng 6. V d v SWOT
SWOT Phng n di chuyn Phng n i mi cng ngh

Th mnh (S) - Tn dng cc thit b hin c. - Cng ngh mi, sch hn, sn phm c sc cnh tranh cao hn. - i ng cn b k thut v cng nhn tip tc lm vic, - Cn b cng nhn khng cn di khng cn o to. chuyn ch . Yu (W) - Sn phm c cht lng nh - Cn c vn u t i mi cng c, t kh nng cnh tranh khi ngh. th trng bin i. - o to li i ng lao ng, tr - Phi chi ph lm nh cho ha i ng v phi sp xp li lao cn b cng nhn ni mi. ng, gii quyt ch cho ngi khng th o to li. - c cung cp t vi chi ph - i mi ton din v cng ngh hp l cho ni mi. k thut - con ngi, to pht trin nhy vt. - c Nh Nc (hay cng ty m) h tr chi ph di chuyn. - Cng ng ni mi s phn - Tng lai xa, c th th khng ng khi mi trng b nhim cho php tn ti cc x nghip cng do doanh nghip chuyn n. nghip, li vn phi di chuyn. - Thua l do sn phm tip tc - Mt bng c cht hp khng cho km cht lng khi thc mi php m rng sn xut sau ny. trng ca ngi tiu dng cao ln.

C hi (O)

e do (T)

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3.13. Phn tch SMART SMART l ch vit tt t ting Anh: Specifc (r rng, c th, Measurable (c th o lng c, nh lng c), Achieve (c th t c, hon thnh c), Realistic (hin thc) v Thc bound (thi gian thc hin hp l). SMART l phng php ca qu pht trin Quc t SIDA Thy in xy dng [7]. SMART s dng phn tch, la chn mt mc tiu ph hp v kh thi ca d n. Mc tiu phi l mt khi nim r rng, cn c xy dng c h thng, p ng 5 yu cu SMART [5]. V d minh ha Do mi trng vng nui trng thy sn ven bin b nhim v suy gim nng sut nh bt, mt d n h tr pht trin kinh t thy sn cho cng ng c xy dng. Ngi ta s chn 1 trong 2 mc tiu c xut sau y qua phn tch SMART: t chc nh bt xa b hay t chc nui lng b (Bng 7). Bng 7. V d v SMART
SMART S C th. M- C th o lng c. A - C th t c R- C tnh thc t. xy dng 15 lng nui thy sn bin ng 5 tu nh bt xa b loi (v d nui c m) cng sut ln 100cv Rt c th. Rt c th. C th o lng c nu xc nh r C th o lng c nu xc dung tch nui lng b (m3/ 1 lng). nh r thm cc trang b k thut ph hp (my nh v my d c...). C th t c v ngn hng chnh sch cho vay vn u i. Rt kh thi v ng dn c tp hun phng php nui lng b, vn nui khng ln, c ch nui v c cc dch v thc n, thuc bnh, c th trng tiu th. C th t c v ngn hng chnh sch cho vay vn u i t kh thi v thiu c s hu cn trn bin, thiu phng tin cu h xa b, thiu k thut v tinh nh v ng trng, phng tin thng tin lin lc lc hu.

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T- Thi gian C th t chc nui ngay khi lm xong Ngay c khi ng xong tu c hp l. lng b. Thi gian lm 15 lng b mt cng sut ln cng cha th ra khong 3 thng. khi c v ph thuc nhiu yu t. Thi gian ng 5 tu mt khong 1 nm.

Kt qu phn tch cho thy mc tiu pht trin nui lng b em li hiu qu hn. 3.14. Phn tch NBBLK NBBLK l vit tt t cc ch ting Vit: Nhn, Bit, Bn, Lm Kim tra. y l quy tc xy dng cc m hnh qun l mi trng v pht trin c s tham gia ca cng ng, mt hnh thc x hi ha bo v mi trng v x hi ha pht trin kinh t x hi. NBBLK l cc tiu ch thc hin dn ch cp c s, c Hi Lin hip Ph n Vit Nam s dng cho cc lp o to k nng qun l pht trin cng ng t nm 1995 [7]. Khi s dng nh gi ngun lc v vai tr ca ph n trong cng ng, NBBLK tr thnh cng c nghin cu v gii rt sc so. Ni dung ca cc tiu ch nh sau: - Nhn (N): ngi tham gia vo d n c nhn nhng g? Nhn trang b bo h lao ng; nhn th lao hoc tin lng xng ng; c bo him x hi, y t, than th; c hng cc phc li khc do d n mang li; c vay vn u i sn xut... - Bit (B1): c o to tp hun nghip v; c ph bin v c s php l, nm c cc vn lin quan n d n, c tham quan, hc tp... - Bn (B2): c bn bc v cc gii php, la chn phng n k hoch thc hin d n, bn bc v mc tiu, u ra, cc ch th xc minh, cc yu t bn ngoi ca d n...
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- Lm (L): ngi tham gia c quyn thc hin nhng phn vic ca d n ph hp vi kh nng ca h; tham gia qun l, lnh o, ch o d n... - Kim tra (K): i din cng ng c t chc kim tra tin thc hin d n, hiu qu ca d n, vic s dng kinh ph ca d n. C 5 tiu ch NBBLK c th c lng ho bng cch cho im xy dng ch s tham gia ca cng ng. Ch s ny chnh l t s gia s im thc t t c so vi tng s im ti a ca c 5 tiu ch. Nu gi nb1b21k ln lt l im s t c, NB1B2LK ln lt l im s ti a ca tng tiu ch (thng thng, im ti a ca tng tiu ch c cho bng nhau v bng 1,0 im). Ch s cng tham gia (CPI Community Participatory Index) c tnh nh sau:

CPI c gi tr t 0,0 (khng tham gia) n 1,0 (tham gia tt nht). Nu tnh CPI ring cho nam gii v n gii trong cng mt d n, chng ta c ch s tham gia theo gii. 3.15. Quan st h thng Khi nghin cu mt h thng c yu t khng gian (mt h sinh thi nhn vn, mt a h thng hoc mt h sinh thi t nhin) nh nghin cu cn phi thm nhp vo h thng tin hnh o c, ly mu, phng vn cng ng, thu thp cc ti liu thng k... Tuy nhin, mt cng vic khng th b qua l quan st h thng. Nm vng phng php quan st, nh nghin cu khng ch "thy" m cn "bit". Chnh nhng ci c "bit" ny h tr rt nhiu cho nh nghin cu x l tt cc s liu phn tch hoc thng k,
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pht hin cc tng mi, cch nh gi mi, pht hin cc thng tin nhiu. * Nguyn tc quan st: - Kn o: quan st cng kn o cng tt khng gy tc ng n con ngi v hot ng bnh thng ca ng vt. Thng thng nhng ngi dn a phng d dng pht hin ra khch l, v vy cn c thi gian xm nhp vo tnh hung, lm quen v to cm gic yn tm thoi mi cho ngi a phng. - Xy dng cu trc: Cn nghin cu trc nhng ti liu thu thp c xc nh trc hoc d kin cc vn , cc i tng cn quan st, ngha l phi xy dng mt cu trc cho vic quan st. - Kt hp quan st vi cc k thut phng vn ca h phng php nh gi nhanh c s tham gia PRA (Participatory Rapid Appraisal). C nhiu k thut phng vn: khng chnh thc, bn chnh thc, phng vn su (chnh thc) v phng vn nhm. - Ghi chp ngay ti thc a khng v ch tr qun hoc sang ngy hm sau mi ghi chp. Nu ny sinh tng g cn theo ui trong nhng ln quan st tip theo v quan st l mt qu trnh iu chnh lin tc. * i tng quan st: Khi thm nhp h thng, thng thng cn quan st cc i tng sau y: - Cc hot ng: quan st k nhng g ang c con ngi thc hin. y chnh l cc hot ng to ra cc u ra ca mt d n hoc ca h thng, cng c th to ra cc nhiu lon ca h thng nu l cc hnh vi lch chun (cc hot ng khng theo quy nh, cc hot ng gy nhim, suy thoi mi trng...). - S tng ng gia hnh ng v li ni: nu kt hp vi cc k thut phng vn PRA th cn quan st s tng ng hay
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khng gia li ni v vic lm ca cc i tng c phng vn. Nhiu trng hp ngi tr li nhng g h thy cn ni nhng khi hnh ng, h s lm nhng g h thch. - Cch s dng khng gian: khng gian sn xut dch v, khng gian c tr khng gian bo tn, khng gian trng, cy xanh, bi chn lp hay tp kt cht thi, sn chi ca tr em, ng lng ng xm... rng, kt cu, kin trc v mi tng tc gia cc khng gian ny ni ln iu g mt h sinh thi c th? - Bi cnh: Cn ch pht hin nhng g nghch cnh v tm hiu nguyn nhn. V d, cc qun bn tht th rng nm ngay cc ph x ng ngi, v trng hot ng ban ngy ngay cnh trng hc, nh ngh cao tng mc ln gia thn xm ngho nn phn ln l nh tm, cuc hp thn xm ch c nam gii i hp v.v... Cc du hiu: Quan st cc du hiu c trng ca h thng l vic lm quan trng, nu khng ni l quan trng hng u ca t quan st. Du hiu c trng l thng tin khng li v cc tnh cht ca h thng. Chng ging nh nhng nt v trong mt bc tranh thy mc. Vic pht hin v l gii cc du hiu l mt cng vic kh khn nhng rt hng th i vi nh nghin cu. M t cc du hiu s tr thnh nhng minh ha ca bo co hin trng h thng. Hn th, cc du hiu c th l cc ch bo ca nhng qu trnh, hin tng tim n hay bc l. Bng 8. Thng k mt s du hiu mi trng

Cc du hiu

Gii thch du hiu

1 . Thch lm (rng ): tp hp cc Xi mn t nghim trng, kh hu kh tng l u ging nh mt khu rng . hn, phong ha vt l mnh hn phong ha ha hc, thm thc vt ngho nn.

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2. R cy nh ln khi mt t, cy ng Xi mn mnh do nc, do gi hay do trn b r l thin. sng. 3. Cc rnh su trn sn dc hng t Xi mn rnh - tnh trng xi mn t nh xung chn i. ng ngi nht v kh hi phc nht do nc chy trn b mt cc a hnh dc tr tri. 4. Sui mi ma y, mi nng cn. Rng u ngun b tn ph nng n 5. Cc bi ly tht trn a hnh cao (i, ni). 6. t feralit vng nhng khng c tp on cy sim mua, hoc trinh n. C lp t km thm (v d st) nm st mt t. t phong ha t vi, khng chua (pH > 5,50) nn khng pht trin h thc vt a t chua.

7. Qun x thc vt a m pht trin: cy Nc ngm cht lng tt nm st mt l dong, bi, hng, chui, ry, mn, cc t. Nu c tp on cy da th nc di. v.v. . . ngm c th b nhim mn. 8. Cy la ang ln ng b chy l: xut t rung thiu kali, cy i km lm hin cc vt kh chy mu nu - vng gim kh nng to dip lc. mp l, ngn l, l yu hay b gy. 9. L chui b chy: cc vt chy kh mu t b nhim phn. Mi trng t chua nu - vng mp l, ngn l, nht l cc lm cho cy khng hp th c Mg. l bnh t. 10. L ci bp, su ho c cc m mu t trng trt thiu Bo. trng trn khp mt l, tp trung ngn l. 11. Tp on cy ci (min Bc) hoc cy Nc c mn khong 1% n 2% (l da nc (min Nam). mn thch hp ca 2 loi cy ny). 12. Tp on cy cng l. Nc ngm cht lng tt nm st mt t

13. Chiu cao ca b r cc cy ngp mn chnh l mc cao trung bnh nhiu (s. vt, bn, c...). nm ca thy triu. 14. Cy ngp mn (s. vt, mm.. .) mc Bin ln, vng t ang st chm. st chn o .

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15. Ct bin hin i ph bn trn cc di Bin ln, vng t ang st chm. tch rng ngp mn b cht 16. Hang vi ngm di mt nc Vng t ang st chm. (sng, bin). 17. Hu, h bm dy trn thn cy ca Mi trng nc sch, khng s dng rng ngp mn mi trng. ho cht bo v thc vt chng hu h.... 18. Bi bin xa ca sng b ph bn ph C dng bin mnh dc b. sa, nc bin c, c bo ty. 19. Ch c ven bin: a dng loi thy Mi trng ven bin cn sch. nh bt sn, nhng kch thc nh hn mc bnh qu mc. thng. 20. Ch c ven bin, kch thc cc loi Mi trng bin b nhim, nh bt thu sn nh, s lng loi t qu mc. 21. Bng pht sa, c bit sa 22. Thy triu Mi trng bin b thay t ngt, khng ph hp vi hot ng tm bin. Nc bin nhim N. P. bng pht to c

22. Hnh dng cua, gh, ngi hu... Mi trng bin b nhim, thu sn c khng bnh thng. kh nng gy c. 23. Cy b nghing v mt pha (rng Trt t (trn sn dc), gi t thnh say). hnh theo mt hng (nn t bng). 25. ong. Nc ngm tng nng b nhim cc kim loi nh Fe, Al, do c pH thp.

27. Cc rng trng (thng, phi lao, bch Thiu ht cht t nng n, c kh nng n...) b dn sch l rng cnh gy. bnh ng rut trong cng ng cao do ung nc l. 28. Ao, chum nc trong leo lo khng Thy vc b axit ha nng (pH < 4,5) c c, ngho hay khng c ng vt thy hoc b nhim kim loi nng trm sinh. trng. 29. Thy vc nhiu ln. Thy vc bn va, nhiu bn b hu c

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30. H ao c nhiu loi c, nht l c tng Thy vc sch. gia v tng mt, nhiu loi cn trng sng di nc. 31. Ct nh sn nh, cong queo. Rng quanh bn cht lng km, ch yu l rng th sinh hay sa van.

33. Nhiu khch du lch nc ngoi xut Cng ng m, an ninh tt, giu bn sc hin trong cng ng. vn ho. 34. Gi lm vic c nhiu ngi ln (thanh nin, trung nin) la c cc qun nc, qun cc. 35. C cng trnh tn gio lu nm (nh, n, cha, nh th). T l tht nghip cao, c vn v trt t an ton x hi; ngho i, kinh t chm pht trin. Cng ng c truyn thng vn ha lu i, n nh, gn kt cao. t t nn x hi.

36. Nhiu cy go gia cnh ng, ra Lng nng nghip truyn thng nhiu lng. i, tn ngng dn gian phong ph (cy go c coi l lch nng nghip, l ni tr n ca linh hn lang thang). 37. Ph n trng tro, tr con b bm. t i ngho, v sinh mi trng tt, nc sinh hot sch v phong ph, khng kh trong lnh.

38. Hp thn, xm ch yu l n ng. Bt bnh ng gii trm trng, c th c Cc tim n bui chiu ti ch yu l n vn bo lc trong gia nh. ng. Lp tp hun cng ng ch yu l hc vin nam. 39. Bi rc ven ng. Du hiu sp n khu dn c tp trung. 40. th c nhiu siu th ln th nng ng v pht trin mnh v (Supermarket). kinh t - x hi. Bnh qun thu nhp trn u ngi cao. Cng ng m, nhiu yu t quc t. 41 . Ngn ru trn tng nh, rc lu trn Khu dn c thng b ngp lt. cnh cy. Nh c nn rt cao.

Ch : Gii thch cc du hiu trn y l ng cho a s trng hp, nhng khng ng cho tt c cc trng hp. V vy nh nghin cu cn xc minh da vo cc ngun thng tin b sung.
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3.16. Xc nh nhiu lon h thng * Gii thiu chung v nhiu lon h thng Nhiu lon, cn gi l hn n (chaos) l tnh cht kh c th tin on c, khng d ho di hn c. Mc d n l kho lu tr cc hnh vi lch chun ca mt h thng, nhng n khng h c ngha l v trt t ln xn v ri ren, l v quy lut. V quy lut ca nhiu lon l quy lut s ln, s cc ln, khin cho vi mi khong thi gian quan st nh nghin cu kh m pht hin ra quy lut. Nhiu lon l tnh cht tt nh ca h thng ng lc gp phn to ra tnh tng th ca h thng, to ra nhn quan tng th lun (Holism) thay v nhn quan phi h thng c tn l quyt nh lun hay quy gin lun (Determinism). Quy gin lun cho rng h thng c th c chia ra cc b phn cu thnh, b phn c bn v d mi trng c th chia thnh t, nc, khng kh, a dng sinh hc v x hi - nhn vn. Tng hp cc b phn ny bng ton b h thng. Ngc li, tng th lun cho rng h thng lun ln hn tng s cc thnh phn to nn n bi cc tnh cht ch c to ra do s tng tc gia cc thnh phn ring l ca h thng. Tnh tri v nhiu lon l hai tnh cht c bit v tt nh m ch tng th h thng mi c. Nhiu lon tun theo hiu ng con bm (Butterfly effect). l hiu ng trong s thay i rt nh b trng thi ban u ca h thng (trng thi O) - v d nh nh nh nhp v cnh ca mt con bm trong mt khng gian bao la ca khu rng - c th lm thay i hon ton s tin ha sau ca h thng, nu n ph hp vi xu th din th ca h thng. S thay i ban u ging nh mt m la nh, c th sau ny s t chy c mt ng c hoc cnh rng rng ln. V s thay i qu nh b nn khng th b pht hin hay ch , nn nhiu lon l tnh tt nh ca h thng. * Nhiu lon bao gm 2 khuynh hng:
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- To ra s suy thoi, thoi ha ca h thng, dn n khng hong to ra mt h thng km t chc, km thch ng hn v n gin hn. - To ra s tin ha, dn n s hnh thnh mt h thng c t chc cao hn, c tnh thch ng tt hn v phc tp hn. Chnh nhiu lon l ng lc to ra din th h thng, c th l din th li (suy thoi) hay din th tin (tin ha) ging nh trng hp mt khu rng mc li c th din th li thnh savan hay din th tin to thnh rng trng thi climax (trng thi cc nh, t tun hon vt cht, ch cn c cung cp nng lng Mt tri). Nhiu lon to ra s tht thng, s khng chnh quy, l mt ng thi c bn ca cc h thng sng. N gip cho vic cht lc ci trt t trong ci hn n cc k a dng. Chng to ra nhng ci lch chun cn thit cho s vn hnh tt ca h thng, lm cho t nhin tr nn ngy cng a dng v x hi ngy cng phc tp. to ra a dng, phc tp, t nhin phi da vo tnh khng cn bng, v c nhng cu trc mi, nhng tnh cht mi ch ny sinh trong iu kin mt cn bng. Trt t hon ho l cn ci nn thc t khng tn ti. Nhiu lon tt nh l ci ngun ca sng to ra nhng ci mi. V d nu nhc c in l hon ho th khng th c nhiu lon tt nh sau to ra nhng dng nhc mi nh rock, hiphop. . . Mt h thng ng lc sm hay mun cng b nhiu lon y ra ngoi trng thi cn bng theo cch dn dn hay t ngt, ngu nhin hay khng ngu nhin. Trong tin trnh tin ho, h thng s tin ti mt im cc k quan trng ti ranh gii ca khng gian pha c tn l im phn nhnh (Bifurcation). Ti hnh vi ca mt h thng ng lc b thay i t ngt khi mt tham s ca h thng vt qu gi tr ti hn. Ti im phn nhnh, h s ng x lun phin gia hai trng thi khc nhau ging nh pha lng v pha
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rn ca nc sch ti 0oC. Nhiu lon trong h thng mi trng v pht trin thng gm hai loi: nhiu lon tt nh, ngu nhin v nhiu lon do hot ng sng ca con ngi to ra. Khng phi tt c, nhng mt phn nhiu lon c th quan st c v qun tr c, nht l nhng nhiu lon nhn sinh. * Xc nh nhiu lon i lng o mc nhiu lon ca mt h thng nhit ng hc c gi l entropy. Trong mt h thng kn, entropy lun tng hoc khng c gim v khng c tip nng lng. Cc h thng sng lun c xu th gim entropy (nhng hn hu t n gi tr 0, mc d v l thuyt, entropy c th c gi tr m). Vic xc nh entropy cho mt h thng ng lc m, m v mm nh cc h thng mi trng v pht trin l mt lnh vc y kh khn v thc t cha c nghin cu no gii quyt. Mt h thng ng lc ang xt c th c xc nh bi n tham s (n chiu) v mi tham s c th c coi nh mt h thng con bc 1. Mi mt h thng con bc 1 li c th c chia thnh nhiu h thng con bc 2. S phn chia th bc ny c th l v tn. Nu nh mi h thng con bc k c mt o entropy (Ek) th theo tng th lun, tng cc gi tr khng bng gi tr entropy ca h thng ang xt. V th v mt l thuyt, xc nh entropy ca mt h thng mi trng v pht trin l iu khng th. Thc tin qun l cc h thng mi trng v pht trin li i hi phi xc nh v qun tr c mt phn cc nhiu lon, nht l nhiu lon nhn sinh. i hi ny dn n cch tnh nhiu lon theo nguyn tc gin lc, b qua cc nhiu lon c th chp nhn v kh xc nh (Nguyn tc b qua ti u) c th qun tr c mt s nhiu lon hu hnh, o c, quan st c. Nguyn tc ny cho php quy nhiu lon mt h thng n chiu v cch tnh
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nhiu lon theo mt chiu c trng nht ca h thng, l tnh tri. Cc bc xc nh nhiu lon da vo tnh tri nh sau: Bc 1 : Xc nh tnh tri ca h thng . Bc 2: Xy dng ch s nh lng o tnh tri, c gi l o EM ( Emergence Measure) Bc 3: Xc nh cha t k vng ca EM, lng cha t ny c gy ra do nhiu lon h thng. Khi EM = 1,0 (100%), chng ta coi nhiu lon bng 0 (gi tr 0 theo ngha qun l h thng, khng phi l gi tr 0 ca entropy h thng) Gi ch s qun l nhiu lon h thng l CMI (Chaos Management Index) ta c: CMI = 1 - EM bin thin ca CIM t 0,0 (h thng im cn bng - nhiu lon c th chp nhn), n 1,0 (h thng trng thi khng hong). V d minh ha: Tnh CMI ca h thng trang tri nui tm. - Xc nh tnh tri. Tnh tri ca mt tri nui tm l lng tm sn xut ra c li, c o bng t sut hng ha t, t l t l gi tin li so vi vn lu ng. Nu t = 0 (ha vn) c coi l mc thp nht c th chp nhn c ca trang tri, t < 0 l l, tmax = 0,75 (t sut hng ho cc i ca trang tri tt nht th gii Hoa K). - Xc nh EM ( o tnh tri ca trang tri nghin cu). Gi s t sut t (nm 2004) ca trang tri l 0,45 ta c:

- Xc nh CMI CMI = 1 - EM = 1 - 0,60 = 0,40

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Ch s nhiu lon ca trang tri nui tm ang xt l 0,40. * Qun tr nhiu lon Mc tiu ca qun tr nhiu lon l a tr s CMI gim n 0. C 2 cch qun tr: - Xut khu nhiu lon sang h thng khc: v d thu gom cht thi t h thng sn xut sang h thng x l, gom v a nhng ngi phm php vo tri giam, chuyn cc hot ng sn xut t vng li ra vng m ca khu bo tn thin nhin; a nhng sinh vin hc khng t yu cu xung lp di hc li (lu ban) v.v... - To nhng ro cn hn ch nhiu lon trong phm vi kim sot c. V d: thit k bng chng chy kim sot chy rng; s dng cc bin php phng tr sinh hc kim sot dch hi cy trng; u t vo c s h tng xa i gim ngho v.v... Vic qun tr nhiu lon h thng da vo vic tr li hai cu hi: - Nhng nhiu lon no c th c xut khu mt cch hp lut sang h thng khc? - Cn xy dng nhng ro cn no ngn chn s gia tng nhiu lon? V d minh ha: Qun tr nhiu lon trong h thng trang tri nui tm s ( nu trn) - Xut khu nhiu lon sang h thng khc: Thu gom v x l nc thi, cht n tha, tm cht, tm bnh - hoc thi b ra mi trng bin. Loi b cc con tm " c (loi tm ln khng ln c) - Tng cng cc ro cn hn ch s gia tng ca nhiu
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lon. X l tt nc u vo. u t khu chm sc ng k thut (thc n, thuc cha bnh, chm sc). La chn ging tt. Bo dng nc trong a bng qut sc kh cng bc. Dit tp v chun b v sinh m nui trc v nui. Cho d c qun tr tt, nui tm s vn c th tht bi v nhng nguyn nhn kh on nh, bi l nhiu lon l thuc tnh ca h thng. Ngi ta ch c th hy vng qun tr tt gim CMI n 0, nhng t khi t c gii hn ny. Do xut khu nhiu lon sang h thng khc l bin php r tin v nhanh nn hay c cc nh sn xut s dng. y l ci ngun ca hot ng gy nhim mi trng, vn chuyn cht thi xuyn bin gii, xut khu cng ngh lc hu sang cc nc ngho, di chuyn cc x nghip gy nhim mi trng t thnh th v nng thn v.v. . . 3.17. Trnh 10 phn thng gp ca t duy h thng Nguyn tc c bn ca t duy h thng 16 cng c phn tch h thng trn y ch l mt con s khng y ca tip cn h thng p dng trong nghin cu mi trng v pht trin. Tuy nhin vn khng ch nm trong cc cng c, m nm trong t duy ca ngi phn tch. Ngi phn tch cn phi c t duy h thng v trnh c nhng phn ca t duy h thng. C 10 phn thng gp, l 10 kiu sai lm mc nht.
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T duy h thng l quan im nhn nhn vn mt cch ton din, ng, ch vo cc quan h hn l vo cc s vic, ch vo cc qu trnh hn l vo hin trng, ch vo s phc tp tng th hn l vo s phc tp chi tit. Do s tin ha m cc h thng ngy cng tr nn phc tp, vi mt lng thng tin dy c lm qu sc x l ca cc nh phn tch, lm h b cun ht vo nhng chi tit m khng pht hin ra cc mi quan h c bn v ch cht. T duy h thng phi lm sao "quy ci phc tp vo nhng ci n gin hn nhng ct li hn", "n gin ha nhng ci phc tp" (Nh nghin cu vn thng c thi quen a ra cc bng cha hng ngn s liu phn tch lm hoa mt ngi c nhng khng a ra c quy lut ca nhng s liu ). C hai nguyn tc c bn ca t duy h thng: (1) Xem xt quan h gia cc yu t cu trc h thng quan trng hn l xem xt cc yu t . Quan h ny l quan h tng h v thng khng phi l chui nguyn nhn - kt qu tuyn tnh. (2) Tp trung ch vo cc qu trnh hn l vo hin trng, c bit l nhng qu trnh chm, nhng din ra theo chu k. Hai nguyn tc c bn ny gip chng ta trnh c 10 phn . Phn l cch t duy sai lm, phi h thng thng gp. Phn 1. Tuyn tnh ho cc chu k c trng c bn ca qu trnh nhn thc ca chng ta l chia nh s vt xem xt. y l tin c bn ca php tnh vi phn: coi mi dng ng cong u l tng s ca v hn cc on thng. Ci ngun ca nhn thc l ngn ng, m cu trc ng php ca mt cu li l cu trc tuyn tnh vi trt t : ch ng ng t v ng b ng trc tip hay gin tip. Nhng cu phc hp vi
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nhiu mnh ph cng ch l cu trc dng cy m thn chnh vn l cu trc tuyn tnh. Logic h thng l logic vi nhng tng tc phn hi phi tuyn, i khi dng vng trn lp li theo chu k, cc vng dng nh ging nhau nhng trn thc t khng bao gi ging nhau y ht. V d, quan im tuyn tnh ca mt dy chuyn sn xut: Nguyn liu Ch tc Hng ha Tiu dng Thi b Nu nhn vi con mt h thng, chng ta s thy chu trnh vng i ca sn phm, l ci ngun ca sn xut sch hn v qun l mi trng doanh nghip.

Nu chng ta tnh thm cc yu t nh nng lng, cht thi pht sinh trong qu trnh sn xut (bi, nc thi, kh thi, nhit, ting n, rung) v con ngi... chng ta s c rt nhiu chu trnh an xen vi nhau, quan h h tng vi nhau. Phn ca t duy h thng l nhn s vt v hin tng bng ci nhn tuyn tnh, b qua cc vng lp, v v th cng b qua cc quy lut. Khng xem xt cc vng lp phn hi, s khng tm ra c cc mu hnh vi ca h thng. Trong cc vng lp phn hi, con ngi tuy l ch th ca hnh ng, nhng l hnh ng c
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quy nh ca h thng. Anh ta phi tun th nhng quy nh do quan h tng h ca h thng bt buc. iu ny gii thch ti sao trong vn phong khoa hc ngi ta ngy cng dng nhiu th b ng. V d, cch vit Ti kt lun rng..." cn thay bng th b ng hoc v nhn xng "C th kt lun rng...", "Cn phi kt lun rng..."; cch vit Chng ta cn phi phun ha cht bo v thc vt v dch hi bng pht cn thay bng "Dch hi bng pht i hi phi phun ha cht bo v thc vt. Phn 2. Coi thng cc qu trnh chm Trong mt h thng d n nh, vn c nhng nhiu lon c tch lu dn dn, chm chp. Chng c th l qu trnh tin ha, cng c th l cc tai bin tim n. Con ngi thng nhn thc th gii qua gic quan, nn c thi quen ch n qu trnh nhnh hay s kin ln ni bt. Cn thy rng a hnh Tri t rt a dng (ni cao, ng bng, cc thy vc...) i b phn l kt qu ca cc qu trnh bin v ni mng c tc ch vi milimt/ nm. Nhng vn ca hm nay l kt qu ca nhng hnh ng, nhng bin i t nhng ngy xa xa. Pht hin cc qu trnh chm, nguyn nhn su xa ca cc vn mi trng v pht trin s to iu kin qun l tt mi trng. V th, thay v ch quan tm n x l nhim, gn y ngi ta p dng thm ISO 14000 hoc quy nh sn xut sch hn ngn chn nhim t ngun. Thc t cho thy nhng qu trnh chm l qu trnh kh o ngc: t sa mc ha, bin i kh hu, suy thoi t canh tc, s dng cao mc nc bin, n s suy tn ca mt nn vn minh, s ln mnh ca mt dn tc, mt quc gia, mt phong tro cch mng... Cu chuyn ng ngn v con ch b luc minh ha rt hay cho phn ny.

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Hiu ng ch luc Th mt con ch vo ni nc si n s quy mnh v nhy ra Nhng c th cho con ch vo ni nc lnh, sau em un nng t t. Khi nc m dn, ch ch khng c phn ng g, thm ch cn t ra thch th. Nhit tng cao dn, ch ch s bi hoi dn, u oi dm kho n khi b luc chn. Hiu ng ny kh ph bin trong thc t, v d, rt nhiu ngi yu tm sng cnh kho thuc tr su b b hoang cho n khi h kinh hong nhn ra t l bnh ung th v tr qui thai di dng lng vt. Phn 3. Thiu quyt nh nhanh khi cn thit H thng tin ha hay suy thoi u tun theo quy lut tng entropy. Khi ch s CMI tng dn t n gi tr 1,0, h thng tin n im phn nhnh: h thng c ang sp , h thng mi ang xut hin. Qung thi gian cho s nhy vt trong tin trnh din th h thng bao gi cng cc k ngn so vi thi gian h thng tn ti, cn bng v n nh. l thi c ca nhng quyt nh nhanh, hnh ng nhanh, ging nh thi c bng n mt cuc cch mng x hi, thi c k kt hp ng, l thi gian xy ra cc thin tai hay s c, thm ha mi trng v.v . . . c c cc quyt nh v hnh ng nhanh khi cn thit, phi tnh ton, chun b, tp dt lu di. Ni mt cch khng thc s cht ch, th cc quyt nh v hnh ng mun nhanh c, chng phi c chun b lu di v t t trong thi gian trc rt lu. ng ph tt vi s c, thm ho mi trng l v d st nht ca vic trnh c phn ny. Phn 4 . Khng tnh ht tc ng ngc do h thng phn ng
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H thng c tnh , l tnh trit tiu cc tc ng m bo s n nh ca h thng. Tnh lm cho cng b tc ng mnh th h thng cng chn li bng nhng phn ng b tr rt a dng v kh lng. u t, ci thin cc khu dn c chut, xy dng cc khu nh cho thu r tin cho lao ng ngoi tnh rt c th lm gia tng ng di dn t do nng thn - th; t ng ha v i mi cng ngh tng nng sut c th lm gia tng tht nghip; gii phng mt bng xy dng khu cng nghip nhiu khi li bin mt b phn nng dn mt t thnh ngi lang thang; dng bo Nht Bn lm sch thy vc nhim c th li gy nhim t nhng v tr vt b hay chn lp bo v.v. . . Nhng tc ng ngc ny c gi l "phn ng b tr" ca h thng. Phn ng ny d dng bin mt hnh ng c tng tt thnh mt hnh ng xu. Phn 5. nh gi thp hoc b qua nhng gii php khng truyn thng Do c trng ca mng phn hi h thng rt a dng, nn cc vn ging nhau c th c to ra t nhng nguyn nhn khc nhau, ngc li, cng mt loi nguyn nhn li c th dn n cc kt qu khng ging nhau. Trong qun tr nhiu lon h thng, vic chn nhng gii php n gin v d dng ch thnh cng nh may mn, bi v bn cht ca vn cha thc s c gii quyt nn sau vn li c th ny sinh. Nu nh cc gii php l d dng th ai cng c th tm ra v p dng. Nhiu trng hp cn nhng gii php c o, mi l v khng truyn thng. Mt s bnh nan y c th cha bng mt vi v thuc nam n gin v r tin. Tnh An Giang c n gn 20 ng "Thn n" nh ng Nguyn Cm Ly bit cch di chuyn cc cng trnh xy dng s nng n bng nhng thit b rt n gin. Ngi Chm trc y xy dng cc h thng thy li rt n gin v r tin, n nay gn 300 nm vn cn pht huy
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hiu qu. . . Nhng gii php c o , thm ch khoa hc hin i cn cha hiu ht, r rng phi da trn nhng kin thc su sc v khng phi ai cng pht hin c. Phn 6. Khng thy rng, ch thy cy hoc khng thy cy, ch thy rng "Rng" y l ci tng th, l h thng ton vn, "cy" l cc chi tit, cc yu t cu thnh h thng. T duy h thng khng yu cu lun lun phi va thy cy, va thy rng, ty tng trng hp m dng m hnh hp en (cn ci tng th) hay m hnh hp trng (cn c ci chi tit). Tuy nhin 2 m hnh ny ch ty thuc vo bi ton t ra ca nh qun l h thng, chng khng loi tr nhau. Nh phn tch cn t duy h thng chn m hnh no ph hp vi mc tiu. Bit ci tng th s dng ci chi tit l nguyn tc chung khng ri vo phn 6. Phn 7. Trong ri khng thy may, trong may khng thy ri Do c trng quan trng nht l cu trc phn hi theo kiu vng lp cc h thng lun tin ha theo cc chu k dng nh lp li. S sp , khng hong ca mt h thng l tin tt yu cho s sinh ra mt h thng mi. Truyn ng ngn "Ti ng mt nga" l minh ha tuyt vi cho nguyn tc "trong ri c may, trong may c ri". Trng thi climax (cc thnh) ca mt h sinh thi khng loi tr thi k li tn tip theo ca n, nhng chnh trong thi k , mt h sinh thi khc c th li xut hin v sau li tin n cc thnh. y cng chnh l quy lut din th sinh thi. Mt cnh ng nhim mn gia tng, nng sut la ngy cng thp cho n khi ngi trng la b hoang. li chnh l c may chuyn cnh ng hoang thnh trang tri nui tm nc l nng sut cao. Nhng v tm s u tin thnh cng lm ch trang tri giu ln, nhiu trang tri khc mc ln cho n khi nhim, bnh
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tm v ri lon th trng lm cho cc trang tri ny ph sn. Mt cng ty du lch quyt nh nhy vo cuc thu t xy dng khu du lch xanh . . . Chu trnh c th tip din. Phn 8. Thy h thng nhng khng thy t nhn ca h thng Mi h thng u c t nhn ring ca n. l nhng ngi, nhng cng ng thch nghi vi h thng n mc l thuc vo h thng, khng th c kh nng/ hoc khng thch thot ra khi h thng. T nhn h thng l mt loi sn phm c trng ca h thng, loi sn phm ny sinh ra mt cch t nhin, t t, khin cho bn thn t nhn ca h thng t khi nhn thy h tr nn l thuc vo cc iu kin ca h thng. Trong nhng h sinh thi cn ci, kh khn v t sinh li, chng ta vn gp nhiu cng ng ngho, thm ch h t quan tm hay khng quan tm n ng tin, trnh hc vn thp, sng khp kn trn nn tng mt nn vn ha bn a nhiu bn sc ring. Nhng cng ng ny gp nhiu kh khn trong vic hi nhp x hi vi cc vng khc, trong lnh vc pht trin kinh t x hi (cng nghip ha, hin i ha). H l t nhn ca mt h sinh thi m bn thn h nhiu i l thuc. Ngi dn th hin i cng khng hn g cng ng ni trn: cuc sng ca h ph thuc rt nhiu vo ti vi, vo in thoi di ng, vo xe gn my, vo my iu ho nhit , vo siu th... v c bit l vo tin. H sng tin nghi hn, nng ng hn nhng cng m yu hn v l thuc vo dch v nhiu hn nhng ngi dn ngho vng nng thn - rng ni ni trn. H cng l mt loi t nhn ca h thng. Chnh nhng hnh ng pht trin gp phn to ra t nhn ca h thng thng qua vic tc ot kh nng t gii phng ca cc t nhn mt cch v tnh hoc c thc.
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Mt s vng chu Phi mt n nh trong thi gian di. Ngi dn quen sng bng lng thc thc phm cu tr t nc ngoi n mc qun mt ngh nng nghip v c ngh nu nng cc mn n truyn thng. Ngi dn th ngy cng tr nn l thuc vo dch v. Nhiu thanh nin ln ln khng bit cch lm g hay c ch bin mn n v h quen mua tht g hay c lm sn siu th, h cng khng th ri chic my tnh ni mng v qu quen "chat" hoc sc so hng ngy trn mng Internet. Nhiu ph n qun mt kh nng t gi u. a phn ngi dn th qun mt kh nng i b. Chng ta cng qun dn cc php tnh cng tr nhn chia v c my tnh b ti, khng thch bn bu v con th hoc cha m gi v c trng mm non v vin dng lo. . . Nhng tnh cht mi ny xut hin dn trong cuc sng th do chnh h thng ny to ra. Trong thc hnh qun l h thng, chng ta hay ch n vic to ra mt h thng mi vi mt mc tiu mi ph hp vi mong i ca chng ta, nhng li t khi n nhng t nhn ca h thng m chng ta to ra. Hoc chng ta mun "gii thot" cho t nhn ca mt h thng nhng ch ch n bn thn h m khng hiu r ci h thng to ra h. Cn phi thy "t nhn" l mt b phn hu c ca h thng v h ch c th c gii thot hoc tr thnh t nhn ca mt h thng mi khi h thng c thay i. Phn 9. Cho rng nguyn nhn v kt qu lun i lin vi nhau trong khng gian v thi gian Nguyn nhn l s tng tc ngm trong h thng m kt qu c to ra khng phi bao gi cng nm ngay ti ni khi pht nguyn nhn v ngay ti khi "nguyn nhn" hot ng. Mt kt qu kh trnh thng bt ngun t nguyn nhn rt xa v rt xa. Bi v th mnh ca cc nguyn nhn ny chnh l ch n n du rt
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kn o trong h thng, v hot ng tun th nguyn tc n by: xu th to ra cnh tay n di v mt bin ng nh s c khuch i nh xu th ny gy ra nhng kt qu rt xa v kh o ngc. Chng ta c thi quen khi pht hin thy "vn ' l c gng tm kim nguyn nhn ngay ti ni v ti lc xy ra vn . y chnh l ci ngun ca nhng sai lm cht ngi trong qun l. L lt vng ng bng a phn l do rng u ngun b cht ph. Nc ngm b nhim c c th l do mt kho thuc tr su b hoang trc 30 - 40 nm. Mt c nhn tt nghip xut sc c th l kt qu hc tp theo phng php ng t thi ph thng. Newton pht minh ra nh lut hp dn khng phi ch t khi ng thy qu to ri . . . Nhng "nguyn nhn" tm thy tc thi ngay ti ni xut hin vn thng l nhng "nguyn nhn" ph, c tnh b ni, thm ch khng phi l nguyn nhn thc s. Phn 10. B qua cc kin thc bn a v h thng T duy h thng khng phi l mi, cng khng ch dnh ring cho cc nh khoa hc. Kho tng kin thc bn a ca cc cng ng a phng tch ly c rt nhiu kinh nghim, trong c cc kinh nghim v t duy h thng. Nghin cu, pht hin v ng dng cc kin thc bn a l phng cch i tt v r tin, nhiu khi l phng cch duy nht ca s thnh cng. Cu ni ca Trn Quc Tun khi sp lm chung dn d vua Trn Anh Tng cho ta thy ni dung ca phn 2 (khng c coi thng cc qu trnh chm): "Nu thy qun gic n t nh la chy, gi thi, th d ch ng. Nu n i chm nh cch tm n du, khng ly ca dn, khng cn c chng th phi chn tng gii xem xt quyn bin nh nh c vy, ty thi c m vn dng cho ng,..., khoan th sc dn lm k su r, gc vng, l
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thng sch gi nc". Kin thc bn a c th tm trong ca dao tc ng, trong lut tc, hng c cc a phng, v c bit l qua phng vn cng ng. Ngi i khc na l hoa Sm cn ti mt, n ra li tn By mi cha qu, ch khoe rng tt Chiu chiu my ph Sn Tr Sng x Ca i, tri chuyn ma Gi bc hu hiu, su ku th rt Trng qung th cn, trng tn th ma Chun chun bay thp th ma Bay cao th nng bay va th rm Kin en tha trng ln cao Th no cng c ma ro rt to Nng tt da, ma tt la Bao gi cho n thng ba Hoa go rng xung th tra ht vng Kin thc bn a l s c kt kinh nghim sng chung vi cc a h sinh thi c th. N l sn phm vn ha phi vt th lin quan n cc h thng sinh thi nhn vn. Nhng kinh nghim sng chung vi lt min Thng Nam B, hiu bit v y dc dn tc ca b con cc dn tc min ni, kinh nghim sn xut qu Tr MY, Qung Nam; nhng quy nh v nh bt hi sn nhiu cng ng ven bin, v kinh nghim trng khoai lang ch ng c gianh v.v . . . Nu nh qun tr mi trng v pht trin chnh l qun l cc h sinh thi c th th kho tng kin thc bn a l
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nhng tinh ty ca t duy h thng. N chng t mt nguyn tc ca pht trin bn vng cng ng l: mi gii php kh thi nm trong cng ng. Cu hi tho lun chng 3 1. C th gp 17 b cng c ca tip cn h thng trnh by trong chng 3 thnh mt s t cc nhm cng c c khng? Hy trnh by phng n gp nhm v nu c trng ca tng nhm ? 2. Cng c s 16 cho php xc nh s b nhiu lon ca mt h thng m qua php tnh ngc ca tnh tri. Nhng vic xc nh tnh tri nhiu khi l khng th. Vy c th o lng cc biu hin ca tnh tri trong nhng trng hp no? Bng phng php g? 3 . C gii php no xc nh tnh ca h thng m ?

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Chng 4 Cc h thng sn xut

4.1. Gii thiu chung Cc h thng sn xut - gi tt l cc h sn xut (HSX) - l mt kiu h thng sinh thi nhn vn c bit, ni m con ngi s dng ti nguyn, nng lng, thng qua hot ng qun l, t chc v khoa hc cng ngh sn xut ra cc sn phm p ng nhu cu x hi; km theo l qu trnh gy nhim v suy thoi mi trng. HSX l kiu h thng mang tnh nhn to v s can thip ca con ngi l iu kin cn v rt quan trng. y cng l kiu h thng ph bin trong x hi, l ni tp trung cao nht nhng vn v mi trng v pht trin. V mt quy m, HSX c th quy m trang tri/ x nghip hay quy m vng sn xut/ doanh nghip thuc cc ngnh kinh t x hi: cng nghip, vn ti, nng nghip, thy sn, du lch. . . Trong cc HSX, cc yu t t nhin, nhn to v x hi ha qun v tng tc cht ch. V bn cht, chng l cc h thng m. Xt v mt ti phn b sc lao ng v ti nguyn, cc h thng ti nh c cng l mt dng h sn xut tim nng. p dng tip cn h thng vo phn tch cc HSX l dng ng dng rng ri nht trong thc tin ca tip cn h thng. V lnh vc ny, cc cng trnh nghin cu ca Gharajedaghi (2005) v Senge (2003) l nhng khai ph. Thc tin sng ng vn dnh mt vng t cn hoang vu cho nhng pht kin mi v p dng tip cn h thng vo cc h sn xut.
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4.2. Nhng c tnh ca cc h sn xut Tnh Mt h sn xut khi t c nhng thnh cng nht nh (nh i mi cng ngh, qun l v chp thi c), thng c xu hng duy tr phng cch hot ng gip h gt hi nhng thnh cng . Cc nh qun l h thng sn xut d chuyn t v tr tch cc thay i ban u sang v tr bo th giai on tip theo. Khuynh hng ny dn n mt s thc l c hng lot doanh nghip tr nn ph sn hoc b l thuc vo cc doanh nghip khc. Trn quan im h thng, th y cng chnh l thi c thun li cho nhng doanh nghip mi vi nhng cch thc lm n mi c th chim lnh th thng phong trn th trng. Mt h sn xut mun lin tc pht trin cn c chin lc lin tc pht hin v thng c sc ca chnh mnh. Phng cch sn xut em li thnh cng giai on ny c th s l tr ngi v gy sp h thng giai on sau. Ni cch khc, trong bi cnh th trng cnh tranh y bin ng, khoa hc cng ngh lun i mi, chnh kh nng thch nghi mi l c tnh qu bu nht ca truyn thng mt h sn xut. Tnh ca mt h khng nht thit l tnh ca tt c cc t phn ca h, n c th l tnh cht ca mt s yu t c tm nh hng trong h. Thng cc tnh cht gn vi nhng yu t c lch s, c danh ting. V d mt i bng gm ton ngi sao cha chc l mt i bng ginh chin thng. Mt t chc gii cha chc gii hn nu nhn thm nhiu c nhn gii. H thng ch n s tng hp gia cc thnh t hn bn thn thnh t. Tnh ng thun trn c s a chiu Mi mt HSX bao gm cc thnh vin hoc nhm ngi c quyn la chn khng ch mc tiu m c phng tin thc hin mc tiu . Quyn la chn l c tnh c ch nh ca h trung.
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 thc hin quyn la chn, h thng cn c gn kt bng thng tin tin ti s ng thun gia cc yu t cu thnh h thng. Chnh s ng thun s to iu kin cho cc HSX t t chc t ti mt s n nh mi. S ng thun ca mt HSX l kt qu ca s tng tc a chiu. Bn cht ca bt c h thng m no cng l a chiu. Mi HSX c nhng chiu ring, tuy nhin im chung nht ca bt c HSX no cng c 5 chiu sau: - Kinh t: bao gm sn xut v phn phi cc sn phm ca h, to ra li nhun cho thnh vin. - Khoa hc: to ra v truyn b cc thng tin, kin thc v sn xut v cnh tranh. - Thm m: to ra v truyn b ci p, ci hp l, tnh hp dn ca cc sn phm v li sng. - o l: xy dng v th ch ha cc gi tr, chun mc x hi lin quan n vic iu chnh v duy tr cc quan h gia cc thnh vin ca h thng. - Chnh tr: to ra, thc thi v cng c quyn lc v trch nhim trong h. Theo Gharajedaghi (2005), 5 chiu ny khng ng ring r, c lp m0 tng tc cht ch lo ra mt c trng chung ca HSX, do chnh l c trng vn ha ca h thng. Chiu th nht (kinh t) ch yu to ra cc gi tr vn ha vt th. Cc gi l vn ho lo ra "lut l vn ha" - do chnh l mt loi m di truyn ca cc h sn xut. Nh m di truyn ny m cc HSX ni ring v cc h x hi ni chung c th ti lp s n nh, nhn bn v tin ha. Cng cn ch rng, nu s ng thun l biu hin ca "lut l vn ha" trong HSX, th chnh trong s ng thun cng lun lun cha ng cc xung t v nhiu lon, v chnh ng thun
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cng l mt trng thi n nh tm thi trong khng gian pha ca h. Tnh m Cc HSX l nhng h thng m in hnh, chng cn u vo l nguyn liu, nng lng, thng tin khoa hc cng ngh, thng tin th trng. . . v cng ph thuc nhiu vo u ra trong tiu th sn phm v x l cht thi. V th nghin cu cc HSX, cn phi t chng trong bi cnh tng tc vi mi trng xung quanh h. Xem xt tnh m ph thuc vo vic xc nh ranh gii ca h thng. y l mt vic kh khn v ranh gii thc ca HSX khng bao gi trng vi ranh gii a l ca chng. thng l ranh gii m v mm. Bn trong ranh gii h l cc thnh t c th kim sot c, bn ngoi ranh gii l nhng thnh t c th kim sot n chng mc no v nhng thnh t m h thng khng th kim sot c. Kh nng qun tr h thng l bin cc thnh t khng th kim sot c thnh cc thnh t c th nh hng c hoc c th chu ng c. Tp hp cc thnh t bn ngoi ny to ra mt khu vc c th giao dch c, cn gi l mi trng giao dch ca HSX [12]. Chnh mi trng giao dch to ra kho hnh vi ng x ca mt h thng m c ch nh. Qun tr h thng khng ch l qun tr cc cu trc v tng tc ni ti ca h, m cn qun tr c mi trng giao dch, tc l qun tr thng qua vic gy nh hng ti nhng yu t khng th kim sot c. Tnh a dng v chc nng, cu trc v tng tc ni ti Mt HSX c th a dng v chc nng, cu trc v tng tc. Mt h c th c nhiu chc nng khc nhau: chnh hay ph, cng khai hay tim n. S a dng chc nng ca h da trn s a dng cu trc (v d khng th c cc m nui tm s nc l hon ton ging nhau v din tch, su, ch v kh hu, cht lng
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nc, cht lng con ging, cht lng thc n, c im vng t xy dng m. . .). Cui cng, tnh a dng tng tc trong ni b h cng c vai tr rt quan trng. Do tnh a dng ny m t nhng iu kin ban u nh nhau c th dn ti nhng kt qu khc nhau, hoc nhng con ng khc nhau c th dn n nhng kt qu ging nhau. Bi v khng phi l cc iu kin ban u, m chnh mi tng tc mi to ra cc trng thi ca h thng. Qun tr tng tc l mt lut vc kh khn. iu dn n mt ng thi k d" ca HSX l nhiu khi vi nhng u t v qun tr "tt" li dn n kt cc xu, khng nh mong i. Gharajedaghi (2005) gi y l "tnh phn trc cm" ca h thng. d hiu hn, c th gi tnh cht ny l tnh "to ra cc kt qu ngc - l tnh cht c gy ra bi tnh nhiu lon h thng. Tnh nhiu lon c mt s dng th hin sau y: - Mt s tng tc trong h c th trt t theo khng gian nhng li v trt t theo thi gian (v d s bnh trng ca cy trinh n m ly - mt loi thc vt l xm nhp vo Vit Nam lin quan n cc vng t m v bn ngp, nhng khng b khng ch theo ma v trong nm). - Mt s tng tc c th trt t theo thi gian, nhng li v trt t v khng gian (v d in hnh l s bng pht cc dch bnh theo ma nh bnh cm gia cm). - Mt s tng tc khc mang tnh g gh: bin ng c v phn b khng gian v thi gian. Tnh a dng v chc nng, cu trc v tng tc ni ti ca cc HSX yu cu nhng cch nhn mi v HSX, l: - Bt c s bin i no v cu trc v tng tc ni ti ca h cng s gp phn thay i chnh bn cht cc tng tc ni ti ny. Rng mi v sn xut ging nh nhng trn nh ch xy ra mt
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ln, nhng trn nh sau khng bao gi ging nhng trn nh trc. V th s pht trin bn vng phi i lin vi s i mi lin tc. - Chiu thi gian trong tin ha h thng khng phi l thi gian theo lch, m l thi gian tnh theo nhp iu, chu k ca cc bin i trong h. - Cc ng x ca h thng quyt nh ng x ca tng b phn cu thnh h thng. V th m gii php qun tr h thng c chn la thng l gii php c s ng thun ca nhiu ngi tham gia ch cha hn l gii php ng nht, tt nht. V th, ci gi l "gii php hp l" ch l nhng gii php ph hp vi trt t hin hnh ca h thng. Cc gii php "i trc thi i" gn vi nhng tm nhn chin lc c t c may c thc hin. Tnh a dng quan h gia cc h thng trong mi trng giao dch Trong mi trng ca mt HSX thng lun lun c nhng HSX khc. Cc HSX ny thc hnh nhng cch thc quan h khc nhau, gy bin i cc h lin quan. Nhn din cc quan h ny gp phn qun tr "mi trng giao dch". - Quan h k sinh Quan h k sinh xy ra khi mt h thng, tn ti, phi khai thc, chim ot nng lng, vt cht v thng tin t mt h khc. H hng li c tn l h k sinh, h b k sinh c gi l h vt ch. H k sinh hot ng v pht trin mnh s lm h vt ch nhanh chng suy thoi, nhiu lon v sp . Cc h thng nh bt t nhin, khai thc t nhin (k c khai thc thy sn, khong sn. . . ) u l nhng h k sinh. Vic s dng cc bin php khai thc thy sn c tnh hy dit phn nh h thng vt ch ang suy thoi trm trng. Mt h thng lin tc xut khu nhiu lon sang h thng khc (v d x thi, tai bin) cng l
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mt dng ca h k sinh. y l tng tc khng bn vng. - Quan h hp tc Cc h thng hp tc cng c li trong trao i nng lng, vt cht, thng tin cng tn ti v pht trin m khng gy hi cho nhau. V d, mt h thng khu bo tn thin nhin v h thng du lch sinh thi ti khu bo tn. h thng rng ngp mn v h thng ca sng. y l tng tc bn vng song phng. - Quan h tr n Nhng h thng c tnh a dng thp thng c tnh n hi (kh nng t hi phc khi b tc ng) thp, tnh nhy cm cao. tn ti, chng phi n nu di s bo v ca cc h thng khc. Cc h thng c chc nng bo v thng l cc barie sinh thi nh rng ngp mn, thy vc cung cp nc nui trng, hoc cc barie nhn to nh h thng bao, h thng kim dch v dit tp, cng ty con v cng ty m . . . Tng tc tr n c th gi l tng tc chuyn ha v h tr n ch thch ng vi mt kiu iu kin tn ti c bit. Khi iu kin thay i, h tr n d b sp . - Quan h cnh tranh Cc HSX ph thuc vo nhau theo ngha l cht lng ca h ny ph thuc (v to ra) cht lng ca h kia, s tn ti ca c hai ph thuc vo nhau, thng qua cnh tranh lnh mnh. Cnh tranh l phng tin v iu kin cho cc HSX ngy cng hon thin. - Quan h xung t Cc h thng trong lnh vc kinh t - x hi cng c quyn s dng mt loi ti nguyn - mi trng cho nhng mc tiu khc nhau l nhng thnh phn tham gia vo xung t. Xung t tim tng gia nui trng thy sn, th, giao thng thy, du lch. . .
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trong vic s dng chung Vnh H Long c th minh ha cho tng tc ny. 4.3. Nguyn l hin ti trong phn tch din th h thng sn xut Ti lp li dy din th ca mt kiu (loi) h thng gip cho nh nghin cu kh nng d bo bin ng ca cc HSX. Bi v "nhng ci g tng xy ra trong qu kh, rt c th s cng xy ra trong tng lai". Tuy nhin, c mt tr ngi l thi gian quan st ca nh nghin cu thng qu ngn ngi so vi cuc i ca mt h thng. Nh nghin cu c th tho g kh khn ny bng cch ng dng nguyn l hin ti: "hin ti trao cho chng ta chic cha kho hiu qu kh. p dng nguyn l ny, nh nghin cu cn lm r trng thi hin ti ca cc h thng cng kiu v sp xp cc h thng thnh mt dy theo mt chiu nht nh (v d theo chiu t trng thi cc thnh qua trng thi suy thoi n trng thi b suy thoi hon ton, hoc ngc li). Tm hiu nguyn nhn to ra mi trng thi. Mi mt trng thi c th l qu kh (hoc l tng lai) ca mt trng thi lin k. Dy trng thi ny cho thy mt hnh nh xp x ca dy din th h thng. Kt hp vi phng php nh gi hi c dng li lch s ca h thng ang nghin cu qua phn tch th tch lu tr v phng vn ngi cao tui sng lu ti a phng, c th cho php lm sng t lch s din th ca mt kiu h thng trong vng nghin cu. Trong mt h thng bin i sang trng thi khc, vn c th cn lu gi nhng di tch st li ca trng thi trc (v d mt khm rng ngp mn cn st li trong vng nui trng thy sn, mt doi ct cn st li khi bi bin b xi l ht, mt khu nh xng b b hoang. . . ). Nhng di tch ny c gi l cc "di sn
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ca qu kh" gip cho nh nghin cu tm hiu v trng thi trc ca mt h sn xut. t thm chiu thi gian ca cc trng thi h thng trong mt din th, c th xy dng li ng bin ng ca h thng trong khng gian pha. 4.4. Phn loi ti nguyn ca cc h sn xut Chng ta quan nim "ti nguyn" l nhng th (nh nguyn liu, nng lng, thng tin, cnh quan. . .) m chng ta c th khai thc t mi trng phc v cho i sng ca x hi. Chng ta chia ti nguyn thnh nhiu loi theo dng vt cht ca chng (v d ti nguyn khong sn, ti nguyn nng lng, ti nguyn du lch sinh thi. . .) hoc theo kh nng bo tn ca chng (ti nguyn ti to, ti nguyn khng ti to. . .). Cc cch phn loi ny l kt qu ca t duy phn tch. l sai lm cht ngi m u cho mt chui tc ng xu kh o ngc do con ngi gy ra cho thin nhin. Tip cn h thng khng quan nim ti nguyn mt cch n gin nh vy. Ci m chng ta gi l "ti nguyn", cn phi chia lm 3 nhm c chc nng khc nhau: Nhm th nht tham gia vo cu trc ca h thng m nu b khai thc, h thng s sp . V d cc va than tham gia cu to nn khi ni c khu di tch Yn T s khng th coi l "m" than; cc hn o vi trn vnh H Long khng th coi l khong sn vi, ct trn bi tm bin khng nn coi l vt liu xy dng . . . Nhng "ti nguyn" c vai tr tng t khng phi l ti nguyn, m c gi l vn c nh ca h thng hoc ti nguyn cu trc ca h thng. Nhm th hai c dng nui dng, vn hnh, m bo chc nng ca h thng, m bo an ton sinh thi, nu b khai thc, h thng s b nhiu lon dn n sp . V d,
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theo t chc Nng - Lng th gii, t 60% n 75% tng lng ti nguyn nc ca mt vng lnh th khng c khai thc v s dng m phi nui dng h sinh thi, m bo cn bng v an ton sinh thi. Khong 43% - 45% din tch t nhin ca lnh th phi dnh cho vic bo v rng v.v. . . Nhng loi "ti nguyn" ny c gi l vn lu ng hoc ti nguyn vn hnh ca h thng, l loi ti nguyn m con ngi khng th khai thc nu khng mun h thng suy thoi v sp . Nhm th ba l loi ti nguyn d tha, to ra u ra ca h thng. y chnh l loi ti nguyn m con ngi c th khai thc bn vng, cn c gi l ti nguyn nng sut ca h thng. V d lng thy sn c th nh bt hng nm, lng nc ngm c th bm ht bn vng mi ngy . . . Vic s dng hp l ti nguyn l nhm vo loi u ra ny. R rng loi ti nguyn c th khai thc c l kh nh b so vi ci gi l ti nguyn, theo ngha thng thng m chng ta quan nim. i vi mi h sn xut, khai thc ti nguyn nng sut l khai thc bn vng, khai thc ti nguyn vn hnh s lm suy thoi h thng, khai thc ti nguyn cu trc s lm sp h thng. 4.5. Nghin cu trng hp 1 - h thng chn th gia sc c sng khu vc sa van kh hn Ninh Thun 4.5.1. i cng v chn th gia sc c sng vng sa van Ninh Thun Ninh Thun nm Cc Nam Trung B. Trong s 335.227 ha din tch t t nhin, c 16.254 ha ni v 85.889 ha savan kh hn hin cn b hoang v thiu nc. Khu vc savan kh hn Ninh Thun c hnh thnh do hai hng: hng ch o l do suy thoi thm thc vt rng hnh thnh cnh quan trng c, cy
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bi xen t trng, hng th yu l s phc hi ca trng c v cy bi trn cc vng t nng nghip b hoang t lu. Savan kh hn theo ngha khoa hc, l vng t kh nng phn ln thi gian trong nm, ma ma rt ngn vi lng ma khong 600 - 1.200 mm/ nm. Lng ma t hn lng bc hi khin cho qu trnh phong ha ha hc v qu trnh to t din ra rt chm. Hot ng phong ha vt l v thi mn mnh to ra nhng cnh quan bn hoang mc rt c trng. Thm thc vt u th l cc loi cy thn c cy bi chu hn tha tht vi mt s loi thn g rng l hng nm. 36.000 ha trong tng din tch khu vc savan kh hn hin nay c s dng cho chn th t do gia sc c sng. Tuy c mang li mt s hiu qu kinh t, nhng hot ng chn th t do vi n gia sc qu ng (trn 150.000 con nm 2003) tn ph vng chn th, gy xi mn, trng trc v tr si mt vng savan vn tha tht mu xanh. gii quyt vic lm v xa i gim ngho, trong c cu u t vn pht trin chn nui i gia sc chim mt t l ng k nhiu vng m iu kin canh tc gp nhiu kh khn do t xu, thiu nc... v chn nui mi ch mc th s, t nhin da vo chn th cc ng c t nhin l chnh. Chn nui b, d, cu v ang gp phn em li mt b mt mi cho nng thn Ninh Thun vi s gia tng tng n u n hng nm trn 15%. 4.5.2. Phn tch cu trc h thng ca h sinh thi chn th gia sc c sng Ninh Thun Chn th GSCS (gia sc c sng) l mt h sn xut c cu trc a phn h v quan h dng gia cc phn h mang nhng c th ring bit. Ranh gii gia h chn th GSCS vi cc h sinh thi nhn vn khc tng i r rng, vi quan h u vo - u ra rt c trng. Tnh n nh ca h sinh thi chn th GSCS (t y
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tr i gi tt l h chn th) ph thuc vo mi quan h vi cc h khc, cng nh vo ng lc ca cc dng vt cht - nng lng v thng tin ni ti ca h. Phn tch cu trc h thng ca mt h sinh thi l phng php hu hiu nh gi tnh bn vng ca mt h thng sn xut. M hnh cu trc h thng ca h chn th Ninh Thun c trnh by theo m hnh hp trng.

Phn h vt nui Nhm GSCS c chn th Ninh Thun ch yu gm b, , cu v tru, trong chim t l cao l b v d. Ging b ph bin Ninh Thun l b vng (cn gi l b c), c tm vc thp, th trng nh. Nm 1994 - 1995, tnh u t cho mua hn 20 con b c ging lai Sind. Nm 1995 - 1998 ang thc hin d n "Ci to v nng trng lng ging b vng Ninh Thun". n nm 1997 c 10/ 868 con b lai Zebu (Sind v Brahman). Ging d ch yu ca a phng l d bch tho (d n trm th c) v mt t (4%) l d c. T nm 1994 tnh nhp mt s
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tinh ng vin ging d sa lai. Cu l n duy nht Vit Nam, thch hp vi vng kh hu kh hn. Nm 2003 n cu Ninh Thun c khong 7.000 con. Vic nhp cc ging b v d nc ngoi vo ci to n gia sc Ninh Thun i hi nhng gii quyt ng b v chm sc, thc n v lm quen vi kh hu. Phn h c s h tng C s h tng ca chn nui GSCS l chung tri v bi chn. Tr chung d cu, cn li tri b c xy dng s si, a phn khng c mi che, ch quy bng cc v dy thp, m thp v ly li (ngi chn nui cn cho b dm trn phn cho ngu d bn phn). Cc tri chn nui u khng c ngun thc n ch ng (tr tri d ca cng ty Ngun Sng). Cn li u chn th t nhin, nhiu trng hp phi di tr n b i xa hng chc tm v thay i ch chn th lin tc theo kiu du mc. Phn h qun l - k thut Hot ng chn th GSCS Ninh Thun c lch s lu i v nhng kinh nghim chn nui vng kh hn c tch ly t nhin trong nhn dn. S hnh thnh cc tri chn nui tp trung trong tnh xy ra mt cch t pht bng cch tch ly dn dn gia sc, theo hai hng. - Tng n gia sc v quy m chn th do tch ly ca mt h ch tri. - Tng n gia sc bng cch gom gp ca nhiu ch, y thc cho mt h ng ra chn nui (gp vn hoc gp gia sc). Vn cho hot ng chn th ch yu do ch tri tch ly v huy ng trong dn (ch yu t h hng), vn vay ca ngn hng khng ng k (ch khong 0,5%). Khon ng gp cho ngn sch
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cha c quy nh thng nht. Phn ln cc ch chn nui (d n gia sc hng ngn con) khng phi ng gp g. Ngay c b c ging (Sind) do tnh mua v cng ch yu l tr gi ng k. Mt vi x v d Tn M, Nh H c thu l ph chn th 5000/ con b v 2000/ con d, cu trong 1 nm. Tuy nhin nhiu ch tri ni rng h thng ng gp "tu tm" cho a phng phc v cho cng ch t mt vi trm ngn n 1 triu/ nm. Nhng khon ng gp ny khng ng k v khng c coi l ngun thu ngn sch. K thut chn nui theo kinh nghim cha truyn con ni. Mt s ch tri mi kinh doanh ch yu thu ngi chn gip. Vic lai to ch ym theo hnh thc cho b c ging ghp di t do trong n. Tm li, nhng vn cng ngh v k thut chn nui tin tin hy cn xa l vi i b phn tri chn nui trong tnh. Phn h ng c (thc n) Thc ra Ninh Thun khng c ng c ng ngha (tc l tho nguyn). Vng t chn th dc gm 39.920 ha trong c khong 3000 ha l rung la mt v (trng la vo ma ma, chn nui vo ma hn), cn trn 36.920 ha l cc trng cy bi xen c v si hoc c di ln rng, thiu nc, khng th hoc rt kh ci to thnh t trng trt. Phn ln din tch chn th ca tnh ch c c mc trong ma ma (c 4 thng/ nng vi tc che ph khc nhau nhng hu nh t c vng chn th no che ph ca thc vt chim 100% din tch ngay c trong ma ma. Vo ma kh, nht l cui ma kh, tr nhng din tch di tn rng trn t dc Ninh Sn v Ninh Phc, nhng vng chn th khc hu nh tr tri hon ton, khin cho n gia sc gy m, cht i nhiu. a phn din tch chn th khng c ngun nc cho gia sc ung. iu c bit cng thng trong ma kh. Nhiu ch tri
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o ao hoc ging ly nc cho gia sc ung 1 ln/ ngy khi n gia sc v li chung. Phn h dch v tiu th v th y Tnh cha c mt c s liu th sn phm chn nui mang tnh n nh v cng nghip. Sn phm chn nui c tiu th qua trung gian mt s ch tri b vn thu gom gia sc, v bo. Sn phm chn nui gm hai loi: - Con ging: xut sang cc tnh bn. - Tht: tiu th phn ln thnh ph H Ch Minh. Lm ng, Nha Trang. Nhu cu tiu th ti ch trong tnh khng nhiu. C s tiu th kh khn, khng thun li v b ngi mua p gi nn cc ch nui (nht l cc h nui t, trn vng cao) ch bn b khi b gi hoc gy chn, nhiu h mun bn cng khng bit bn cho ai, thng l tch ly gia sc trong n v chu ri ro khi gia sc thiu n hoc bng pht dch bnh (cht i, gy m, cht dch). ng vn kh quay vng. Chi Cc Th Y c 2 phng: Phng Dch T v Phng Kim Sot Git M. Tuy nhin trong tnh cn hng trm nhn vin th y c s, h chnh l cc ch tri chn nui hoc ngi trong gia nh ch tri c o to v c tay ngh. H thng ch ng mua thuc tim phng cho gia sc ca mnh v ca lng ging. Tuy nhin, rt nhiu trng hp gia sc khng c tim phng liu v vo thi gian hp l. Trong tnh c nhiu i l thuc t nhn cng hot ng ng thi vi cc i l thuc ca chi cc. Cc i l t nhn kim sot phn ln trng thuc th y trong ton tnh (nm 1998). Nhiu n gia sc chn th trong rng, sng nh th hoang di (rt nhiu ch tri khng bit chnh xc s gia sc ca mnh). V
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vy khi c dch bnh, khng th kim sot c. Tnh ton theo ch s Downjone sinh thi EDI (nm 1998) c gi tr EDI = 66, nm trong vng "c vn ", xp x ngng tai bin (Nguyn nh Ho v Trn Phong, 1998 [4]). L do chnh ca v th thp ca h chn th gia sc c sng Ninh Thun l do n gia sc qu ng, vt qu kh nng ti ca ng c t nhin, trong khi nhng u t cho cc phn h khc li qu thp. 4.6. Nghin cu trng hp 2 - h thng nui thy sn mn l Ngha Hng, Nam nh (nm 2002) 4.6.1. i cng v nui thy sn mn r, Ngha Hng, Nam nh S pht trin ngh nui thy sn mn - l ven bin Ngha Hng Ngha Hng l huyn ng bng h lu sng - ven bin ang bi t m rng v pha bin. Nm kp gia hai on h lu sng Ninh C v sng y, mi nm huyn Ngha Hng bi ra pha bin chng 100 - 120m. C khong 28 - 30 nm huyn li xay dng mt bin mi cch c chng 1km c thm 1 x mi. X Nam in nm gia 1958 v 1986, l x gn bin nht v giu tim nng nui trng thy sn nht huyn. c nui dng bi ph sa hai con sng Ninh C v y, tip gip vi bin m, li c h thng rng ngp mn c trng mi v bo v chim 1800ha (s pht trin v duy tr n mc 2000ha), Ngha Hng l mt trong 2 huyn c nn kinh t nui trng thy sn mn l ng k nht ca Nam nh. Ngh nui thu sn mn l mi xut hin 6 - 7 nm, n nm 2002, Ngha Hng c 1915 ha nui thy sn mn n, trong din tch nui m l 1.465ha, nui ngao ngoi bi triu l 450ha. Ngoi ra cn bi ngao ging rng 300ha Ty Nam in c
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huyn cm cc nh v Theo phng Nng Nghip, Ngha Hng th sn lng nui thu sn ca Ngha Hng 2 nm qua nh sau. Bng 9. Sn lng nui thy sn mn l Ngha Hng
Tn sn phm Tm Cua Ngao 2001 200 tn 300 tn 1800 tn 2002 400 tn 300 tn 2000 tn

Ngun: Phng Nng nghip Ngha Hng, 2002 Nui thy sn l, mn tp trung ch yu 2 khu vc ven bin ca x Nam in: - ng Nam in: khong 570 ha nui trong - Ty Nam in: - m nui ngoi : 400 ha - Nui ngao bin : 450 ha - m trong khong 200 ha Hnh thc nui l qung canh ci tin (qung canh, nhng ch ng con ging v mt phn thc n cng nghip, u t cho dit tp v thuc cha bnh t). Mt th thng di 5 con tm ging/ 1 m2, mt vi din tch ca tri tm thuc Trung tm thu sn huyn th dy hn, c th n 15 con tm/ 1 m2. Mt cua rt tha, cao nht l 0,5 con/ m2, i khi tha n 0,2 con/ 1 m2. Huyn th nghim khong 20 ha nui tm cng nghip ng Nam in. Cc vng nui khc ang c ci to ng cp thot nc, cng. ng giao thng chnh l ng ( ri ) v ng cng tc ni b cht lng km (ly tht, d st l). Cc vn ti nguyn - mi trng lin quan n ngh nui thy sn mn/ l Ngha Hng Trong s 1915 ha nui thy sn- mn/ l, c n 4 vng sinh thi khc nhau
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1. Vng trong , khng phi sng chung vi cy la: ng Nam in, 570 ha. 2. Vng trong , chung sng vi la: Ty Nam in, 200ha. 3. Vng ngoi , chung sng vi rng ngp mn: Ty Nam in, 400 ha. 4. Vng bi bin, nui ngao: 450 ha. - Vng 1 l vng nui thy sn tp trung, d quy hoch, tip cn bin nn c nhiu tim nng pht trin m hnh nui cng nghip (hin ang quy hoch 20 ha). - Vng 2 xut hin mu thun gia la v thy sn. Va chu nh hng ca ha cht bo v thc vt (BVTV), va khng th ly nc bin trc tip vo m, vng 2 xut hin nhiu ri ro (thua l) v kh quy hoch trong nui thu sn. - Vng 3 c nhiu iu kin tt v cp nc cho m, nhng m nui c nhiu ri ro v bao do bo v triu cng, cng nh b e do bi ho cht BVTV dng bo v rng ngp mn mi trng. - Vng 4 c tim nng nui ngao, nhng ang din ra mu thun tranh chp din tch nui v y l vng ang bi. Vi lch s nui thy sn mn l mi 6 - 7 nm, hnh thc nui ch yu l qung canh ci tin. Tr cc h nui ngoi Ty Nam in c m rng vn ln, cc h nui trong thng c din tch m hp vn t. Nhng vn ti nguyn mi trng ch yu ghi nhn c l: - Ch m hn ch ti a chi ph dit tp v ci to m. trnh bc phn, cc m trong u rt nng, c m su ch t 0,30 - 0,40 m nc. Gia v xun h v thu ng khng c thi gian di phi v lm v sinh m. - Mc d c ng nc cp v tiu, nhng khng c trang
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tri no c h chun b nc v h x l nc thi. Ngay c trong quy hoch nui cng nghip cng cha ch ng mc n hai h chun b v x l nc. V th bnh dch thng xut hin, nht l bnh en mang v m trng. Nm 1999 xut hin v dch tm cht hng lot Nhiu m ly nc b nhim du. - ng giao thng v ng cng tc c nhng cht lng khng cao, in cp cha (mi c 20% yu cu). - Thi gian s dng t l 5 nm, qu ngn vi ngh nui thu sn khin ch m khng chu u t ln. - Ngoi khon ng gp di dng thu sn (= thu t) tu v tr m bin i t 200.000/ ha/ nm n l.000.000/ hai nm, a phng khng chnh thc thu thm khon no, v th vn u t ca huyn cng t, ch yu ch t k hoch u t ca tnh v B Thu Sn. Tuy nhin, ngh nui thy sn mn l cng gii quyt cng n vic lm cho khong 4.000 - 5.000 lao ng lm thu ngi a phng vi mc th lao (khng k n) t 4 n 8,4 triu ng/ nm cho 1 lao ng lm thu, l - ch chu, li - ch thng thm. y l mt trong nhng ng gp tch cc ca ngh nui thy sn mm l cho vic xa i gim ngho ca Ngha Hng (c tnh tin tr cng cho lao ng lm thu trung bnh khong 25 - 30 t ng mi nm). - Do nui trng thy sn l ngh sng c, nn nhng tranh chp bi nui ngao, mu thun gia nui thy sn mn/ l v trng la xut hin v c xu hng ngy cng cng thng trong cng ng. 4.6.2. Phn tch h thng trang tri nui thy sn mn l Ngha Hng Phng php phn tch h thng c s dng nhm phn tch, xc nh v tm hiu cc t phn trong h thng trang tri nui thy sn ven bin, t xc nh, xy ng cc ch th n, ch th
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tng hp nh gi mc bn vng ca ton b h thng. Da trn tng v m hnh qu trng ca h thng mi trng v Thc o bn vng BS do IUCN xut (1996), h thng mi trng ca trang tri nui thy sn cng gm 2 phn h l phn h sinh thi t nhin v phn h x hi - nhn vn trong , mi phn h ca h thng bao gm 5 vn ct li sau: Phn h sinh thi t nhin: + Nc cp cho nui trng: l nc c x l m bo cc iu kin cn thit ( mn, pa, lm sch, to mu (to)...) cho nui trng. + Nc thi: l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gy nhim nc bin ven b, nh hng n kh nng nui trng ca ng tri. + Cht lng nc bin: l yu t quyt nh n kh nng nui trng ca ng tri. vng ca sng, nc bin thng c hm lng cht hu c cao, c c ln v thng chu tc ng ca cht thi t hot ng nng nghip cng nh hot ng nui thy sn ven bin. + an ton ca m nui: phn nh s an ton ca m nui, kinh nghim, k thut ca ngi lm trong trang tri trc nhng tc ng bt li ca l nhin (ma bo, hn hn, triu cng...). + sch ca mi trng m nui. Phn h x hi nhn vn + Trnh , k thut nui trng: hot ng nui tm cn c kin thc v khoa hc - cng ngh, k thut v kinh nghim v th trng tht vng chc. Bn cnh , m nui l mt h thng sn xut nhy cm v mng manh, do trnh v k thut nui trng l yu t c bn a bo s thnh cng ca trang tri nui thy sn. + Li ch kinh t: ng tri thnh cng hay khng l li ch
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kinh t m trang tri to c cho x hi. + Tin b x hi: phn nh tnh nhn vn v cht lng cuc sng ca i sng kinh t trang tri. + Quyn s hu/ s dng ti nguyn: l c s ca pht trin bn vng v n to iu kin cho ch trang tri u t theo chiu su v n nh, mt khc ti nguyn c ngi qun l v bo v. + Vic lm v thu nhp ca ngi lm cng: phn nh s quan tm ca ch trang tri ti nhn cng lao ng, phn nh nng lc lm vic ca nhn cng v phn nh c s c gng ca nhn cng lao ng vo s pht trin ca trang tri. 4.6.3. Xc lp ch s bn vng ng tri nui thy sn mn l vng ca sng chu th theo biu BS Trn c s xc nh c cc vn ct li trong phn tch h thng, cc ch th n nh gi mc bn vng ca h thng c xy dng theo 2 mng: phc li sinh thi v phc li x hi nhn vn. Mi mng bao gm 5 ch th n c trng s bng nhau (C = 20) nhm m bo s cn bng gia phc li sinh thi v phc li x hi - nhn vn trong nh gi mc bn vng bng thc o bn vng BS. Gi tr ca mng c tnh theo cng thc sau:

Trong :

+ ASIB: Gi tr ca mng phc li sinh thi + ASIH: Gi tr ca mng phc li XH - NV + Ci: Trng s ca ch th n th i (u = 20) + ASIEi: Gi tr ca ch th n th i ca mng phc li sinh thi + ASIHi: Gi tr ca ch th n th i ca mng
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XH-NV Mi ch th n c tnh bng phng trnh sau:

trong :

tthc: gi tr t c thc t ca ch th i tmin: gi tr thp nht ca ch th i tmax: gi l k vng ca ch th i

Cc ch th n trong mng phc li sinh thi - ASIE Cc ch th n trong mng phc li sinh thi c xc lp nh sau: ASIEI: T l gia din tch h dng cho chun b nc (nhm n nh mn theo yu cu, lm sch, dit tp, qun tr pH to mu (ch to pht trin)...). Din tch ph hp (tmax) cho h chun b nc l 1/3 din tch h nui (theo kinh nghim ca cc tri nui tm).

Trong S l din tch h nui tnh bng ha. ASIE2: T l din tch h thu gom v x l nc thi. T l ti u l 10% din tch h nui. Vi tmin = 0, ta c

ASIE3: Ngun nc bin cung cp cho m nui - Cht lng tt, khng b nhim: ASIE3 = 1 - Cht lng c vn phi x l: ASIE3 = 0,5
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ASIE4: Kh nng m nui b tn ph do sng bin khi triu cng v bo. - Khng th b ph ( an ton cao): ASIE4 = 1 - C th b ph ASIE4 = 0,5 ASIE5: T l chi ph x l mi trng h nui (chun b nc, dit tp, cha bnh...) phn nh cht lng mi trng vng nui, so vi tng chi ph sn xut. Theo kinh nghim ca cc nh sn xut, chi ph x l mi trng h tm cao nht c th chp nhn l 50% chi ph sn xut; tmax = 0,5 c gi l chi ph ho vn.

Ch th n trong mng phc li x hi - nhn vn Mng phc li x hi - nhn vn bao gm 5 ch th n sau: ASIHI: Trnh k thut nui trng, c o bng s nm kinh nghim nui tm ca ngi ph trch k thut ca trang tri (nhiu trng hp, chnh ch tri ph trch k thut).

ASIH2: T sut hng ha, phn nh hiu qu kinh t ca trang tri. T sut hng ha l t s tin li trn tng chi ph (vn lu ng ), t sut k vng (tmax ) l 0,75.

Nu tthc >0,75 th ASIH2 = 1 (max). Nu l ASIH2 = 0 (min) ASIH3: T l con em ca nhng ngi lm v ch tri trong tui n trng (6 15 tui) c i hc. Ch th ny phn nh phc li
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x hi ca kinh t trang tri c du t cho gio dc - s u t nhy cm nht i vi nhng thnh cng v kinh t, phn nh tin b x hi.

ASIH4: Thi gian s dng t ng tri, quyt nh s u t lu di cho trang tri.

ASIH5: T l mc lng thng trung bnh ca ngi lm cng trong ng tri (nhc) vi mc lng thng cao nht trong vng (tmax). Ch th ny phn nh tnh cng bng trong phn phi sn phm x hi.

(mc lng cao nht cho 1 lao ng l 700.000 Ngha Hng). 4.6.4. nh gi mc bn vng ca cc trang tri nui thy sn mn l vng Ngha Hng, Nam nh trn biu BS 9 ng tri c la chn ngu nhin tnh ton, gm 3 nhm: trong ng Nam in, khng c din tch trng la (3 tri), trong Ty Nam in, c din tch trng la (3 tri), ngoi Ty Nam in (3 tri). Kt qu tnh ton cc ch s ASIE v ASIH c th hin trong bng 10 v bng 11 sau y:

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Bng 10. Kt qu tnh ton ASIE cc ng tri nui thy sn Ngha Hng nm 2001 - 2002
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tn ch ng tri Hong Minh on Ngc Nhiu Trn Quc m H Mnh Khu Nguyn Vn Vung Nguyn Vn in Phm Minh Hng Bi Duy Lc Nguyn Vn Tng ASIE1 0,60 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 ASIE2 ASIE3 ASIE4 ASIE5 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0'00 0,00 0,00 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 0,50 0,50 1,00 0,50 1,00 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,90 0,80 0,45 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,80 ASIE 60 36 39 40 40 40 48 36 36

Bng 11. Kt qu tnh ton ASIH cc ng tri nui thy sn Ngha Hng nm 2001 - 2002
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tn ch ng tri Hong Minh on Ngc Nhiu Trn Quc m H Mnh Khu Nguyn Vn Vung Nguyn Vn in Phm Minh Hng Bi Duy Lc Nguyn Vn Tng ASIH1~ 1,00 0,50 1,00 0,50 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,50 0,25 ASIH2 1,00 0,20 1,00 0,65 0,00 0,55 0,00 1,00 0,00 ASIH3 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 ASIH4 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,60 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 0,50 ASIH5 0,70 0,40 0,45 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,70 1,00 ASIH 84 52 79 75 55 66 55 84 55

Ghi ch: 1 - 3: Tri trong , ng Nam in

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4 - 6: Tri trong , Ty Nam in 7 - 9: Tri ngoi , Ty Nam in

a cc gi tr phc li sinh thi - ASIE v phc li x hi nhn vn - ASIH ln biu BS xc nh mc bn vng ca cc ng tri nui vng sn Ngha Hng da vo v tr ca ng tri trn biu . Nhn xt chung: Qua biu BS, kt qu nh gi mc bn vng ca cc ng tri nh sau: - Khng c ng tri c nghin cu no t mc "bn vng C 11,1 % ng tri c nghin cu (1 ng tri) nm ranh gii phn loi gia mc "kh bn vng" v "trung bnh". C n 88,9%
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s ng tri c nghin cu nm mc "trung bnh" v "km bn vng". - Hu ht cc ng tri c nghin cu u c ch s ASIH ln hn nhiu so vi ch s ASIE, iu phn nh tnh mt cn i gia cc tiu ch sinh thi v tiu ch x hi - nhn vn trong pht trin cc ng tri Ngha Hng. 4.7. Nghin cu trng hp 3 - Tnh tri ca h thng ti nguyn mi trng v qun l h thng trong phng tr su hi Mt h thng c nhng tnh cht m cc yu t cu to nn h thng khng c. l tnh tri ca h thng. Con ngi v x hi da nhiu vo tnh tri ca cc h thng ti nguyn mi trng nhng li thng ch n cc yu t ring bit ca h thng m t ch n tnh ton vn ca h thng. l nguyn nhn su sc nht ca suy thoi mi trng. 4.7.1. Tm quan trng ca tnh tri h thng ti nguyn mi trng Khng th tng tng ni nu trong cuc sng hng ngy, cc h thng li khng c tnh tri ca chng. Chng ta s xoay x ra sao nu mt chic t khng th chy c, n ng nh chnh cc chi tit to ra t v bc ln ton mi xng; mt ni lu khng h thm ngon cht no: chng ton v tanh ca c sng v v mn ca mui. Cc h thng t n gin nh mt ly ch tri cy, n phc tp nh mt lu vc sng,... u to nn mt c im v u vn hnh mt chc nng m ton b cc yu t to nn h thng u khng c c. l tnh tri h thng. Chng ta s dng tnh tri ca v cng nhiu h thng hng ngy, quen n mc khng my khi suy ngh rng tnh cht ti sao m c. H thng l mt tp hp cc yu t quan h vi nhau mt cch nhn qu, c ngha l cc yu t phi gn b vi nhau thc hin
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mt chc nng no . Vn l ch, cng mt yu t c th ng thi tham gia vo nhiu h thng khc nhau thc hin nhiu chc nng khc nhau. Mt thm san h va thc hin chc nng cn sng bo v b bin (thuc h thng cn bng ng lc ng b), va l ni c tr ca cc ng vt sng bm (thuc h thng sinh thi vng b), li va thc hin chc nng trao i vt cht vi mi trng trong mt h thng th ba. Trong x hi cng vy, mt con ngi cng lc tham gia nhng h thng x hi rt khc nhau: gia nh, lp hc hi ng qun tr doanh nghip, hi cu chin binh... Tnh a chc nng ca mt yu t trong h thng dn n l thuyt ng vai trong phn tch h thng. Cng mt yu t, nhng h thng X n c vai tr rt ph, trong khi h thng Y n li c vai tr cc k quan trng. Chnh v h thng l mt cu trc kh nhn bit nn con ngi buc phi chia nh h thng nhn thc, ging nh nghin cu mt c th sng, ngi ta nghin cu ring h thn kinh, h tun hon, c, xng... Vn l ch khi chia nh h thng ra phn tch, chng ta li thng qun tng hp cc yu t ring r thnh h thng ton vn ban u. y chnh l ci ngun ca mi s suy thoi v xung t trong nhiu lnh vc, k c lnh vc qun tr mi trng v pht trin. 4.7.2. Coi trng yu t ring r hn ton b h thng C l y l hng cc oan nht khi cc nh qun l v chuyn vin k thut c chuyn mn ha n mc p t ci nhn lch lc v h thng ti nguyn mi trng. Trng hp cc vnh bin nc su (kiu nh vnh Vn Phong tnh Khnh Ha chng hn) l mt v d r rng nht. y l mt kiu a h ven b. Cc yu t nh vc nc, a hnh y v ven b, dn c quanh b vnh, th gii thy sinh vt, vai tr khng gian m... hp sc
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 to ra loi a h ny. Tuy nhin cc nh vn ti bin ch coi n nh mt v tr y tim nng xy dng cng nc su. Nh thy sn xy dng chng trnh nui trng pht trin ngun li. Nh my xi mng coi san h trong vnh l ngun nguyn liu di do v nhiu ln xung t vi nhng ngi sng bng ngh khai thc c rn. Ngnh Du lch, ngc li, coi vnh bin xinh p ny l c s du lch bin y ha hn, trong khi ngnh Vn ho ang trnh Chnh ph ra quyt nh xc nhn y l thng cnh quc gia... Xung t mi trng v th ny sinh v ngnh no kim c giy php trc s l ngnh c li th. Nhng v d nh th c th gp rt nhiu. Dn n nhng quyt nh khai thc v s dng ti nguyn khng hiu qu, dn n xung t, suy thoi ti nguyn mi trng v nhng chi ph v cng ln cho vic hon phc mi trng. 4.7.3. Tai bin ca h thng: S ph v tnh tri Cc h thng b khai thc qu ngng an ton, hoc thay i cu trc s bin thnh mt h thng khc vi nhng chc nng khc, v chnh chc nng mi ny nhiu trng hp t con ngi v x hi trc nhng thch thc kh vt qua. Vi quan nim cc tng m ci nm chn hay trn sn dc l nhng khi c th "tn thu lm ch, c quan qun l v cc th ch qun rng cc tng ny l mt yu t to ra s n nh ca cnh quan, l ti nguyn du lch... Kt qu l trt l t xy ra, xut hin cnh quan nham nh xu x sau khi tng m ci c bin thnh vi trm vin ch gi 1.500 / 1 vin. Nhng tai bin h thng cng xy ra tng t trong trng hp khai thc ct vng ca sng lm bin ng lung lch, khai thc san h sng, bm ht nc ngm qu kh nng t phc hi, san lp thu vc xy dng... v nhiu trng hp khc. Khi mt (s) yu t ca h thng c ly i, hoc b lm suy
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gim i, h thng c th tr thnh mt n nh v c th bin thnh h thng c tnh tri khc khng c li cho con ngi. 4.7.4. Qun l h thng trong mi trng v pht trin Qun tr mi trng v pht trin l mt qu trnh da trn Tip cn H thng. l qu trnh nh gi, phn tch lm r cu trc chc nng, tnh tri cng nh cc tnh cht khc, v c bit phi xc nh c ngng an ton ca h thng ti nguyn mi trng. T cho php mc khai thc cc yu t ca h thng (ti nguyn) mt cch bn vng, xc nh cc s c h thng v cc h thng tng lai do bin i h thng ang khai thc bin thnh - ci gi l xc nh din th h thng. Nhiu ni tn ph rng ngp mn nui tm v khng hiu r c vai tr ca chng trong cc h sinh thi t ngp nc. Ging c mi bin mt trn ton vng bin Vit Nam do khai thc qu kh nng ti sinh. Nhiu loi nhuyn th 2 mnh v tr nn c hi v c nhiu ni chng n gin c coi l my lc nc c chc nng lm sch cc cht nhim... Hiu sai vai tr ca mt yu t trong h thng cng l ng lc lm gia tng tnh tai bin ca h thng. Nghin cu in hnh v ng dng qun tr h thng trong phng tr su hi l mt v d in hnh minh chng cho lun im ny (Lewis, 1997) [17]. 4.7.5. Nghin cu trng hp: Duy tr tnh tri ca h thng rung cy trng trong phng tr su hi Cuc cch mng xanh to ra mt nn nng nghip hng ho, nhng km theo l cuc i u cha c im dng vi su bnh, trong su hi l mt i th cng u. Lng ha cht bo v thc vt c s dng trn lan, mt mt lm tng tnh c hi ca nng sn, mt khc gp phn to ra cc chng su hi khng thuc. Chi ph phng tr su hi khng ngng tng cng vi s gia tng cng khng ngng chi ph bo v sc kho ca con ngi khi
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s dng cc loi nng sn c d lng ha cht bo v thc vt. L do chnh l cc bin php phng tr su hi hin nay, t bin php phng tr sinh hc, bin php cng ngh sinh hc, bin php ho hc cho n bin php phng tr dch hi tng hp (IPM) u l nhng bin php cha bnh. Cc bin php ny hng vo tiu dit su hi ch khng nhm vo vic to ra mt c ch t iu chnh ca h thng rung cy trng. Tnh tri ca mt h thng rung cy trng kho mnh v cn bng th hin c ch t iu chnh, cho mt lng sn phm phong ph vi s lng hp l, khng bin su thnh su hi. Tnh tri ny l kt qu ca mt nguyn tc mi - nguyn tc ca qun l h thng - trong phng tr dch hi "cc yu t ca mt h sinh thi rung, cy trng lun tng tc vi nhau thng qua mt mng phn hi duy tr mi cn bng bn trong ranh gii kim sot chc nng ca h thng, d rng ranh gii ny lun bin ng". Tip cn H thng trong phng tr su hi C bn vn ny sinh i km cc thuc tr su truyn thng, l d lng cht c, su khng thuc, su hi th sinh (th cp) v s hi phc ca su hi. Ba vn sau l kt qu c bn ca s can thip, vn b tc ng ngc ca h sinh thi lm cho v dng hoc gim hiu qu. V th vic s dng cc thuc tr su t c hi, v d ch phm sinh hc, hoc th lan trn cc thin ch, d c tc dng trong vic gim nhim mi trng, vn cha nhm ng vo s yu km v mt sinh thi hc ca cc tip cn kim sot su hi truyn thng. Cc cng c ny, hoc l ha hc, sinh hc hay vt l cng ch l m rng cc tip cn truyn thng v cng lm chng ta phi i mt vi t nhin. Mt khc, iu cng c ngha l kch ng s pht trin v s dng cc sn phm c tnh hy dit cao hn bi v chng "lm vic" tt hn cc vt liu c tc ng t t.
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Vn c bn ca chin lc phng tr su hi c tnh h thng l phi s dng mng phn hi trong h thng mc ton h thng, c ngha l, tip cn cn nhm vo vic khi ng cc ngun lc tim tng bn trong h sinh thi hng ti vic kim sot cc qun th su bnh trong ngng c th chp nhn hn l hng ti vic tiu dit chng. Tuy nhin, cc gii php ny phi p ng nhu cu sn xut v cng phi c chi ph hp l. C th pht trin tip cn h thng ny theo 3 tuyn: 1) qun l h sinh thi, 2) thuc tnh ma v, 3) cha chy nhng t gy hy hoi. Qun l h sinh thi Hiu v qun l mt h sinh thi nng nghip l c s ca tt c chin lc canh tc, k c qun l dch hi. C s ny thng l nn nhn ca cc tip cn sn xut ch quan tm n nng sut. Do cc knh ti tr v chnh tr, cc nhm khoa hc thng tp trung nghin cu cc khu vc a l thun li. V th cc c s thng tin lin quan n mt v sn xut ring bit, nh l mt yu t ca mt h sinh thi canh tc, thng rt hn hp. V d, cc chuyn gia v bng lun tp trung lm vic vi cc chuyn gia v bng khc. Tuy nhin, c bng ln cc ngnh sn xut cy trng khc ang khng ngng tng ln trong cng mt din tch v i khi trn cng mt tha rung. Cc ma v chia s chung nhiu loi su bnh v thin ch. V th qun l dch hi trn mt loi cy trng u nh hng trc tip hay gin tip ln cc loi cy trng khc. Ti nh hng vic qun l dch hi l cn thit nhm phi hp quanh nm cc cng vic lin quan n t, c di, cy trng, nc v cc k thut canh tc phi hp, cng nh xem xt tc ng ca cc k thut ny ln gii ng thc vt, trng thi dinh dng v tnh cn bng ca h sinh thi. Nhng nghin cu gn y cho thy s ti nh hng ny cho kt qu rt kh quan. Vai tr ca lp ph thc vt trong giai
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on thu hoch l rt quan trng, chng l ch tr n ca thin ch, n nh mi cn bng vi dch hi v lun chuyn mi cn bng ny sang v mi. Cy t inh hng v cc loi rau khc trong cnh ng bng ng - Nam Hoa K l ni tr n rt tt trong ma ng - Xun ca cc cn trng n tht v k sinh i vi su hi bng. Bn su xanh sng trn cy t inh hng l vt ch ma ng - Xun ca bn k sinh Cotesia marginiiventris c kh nng kim sot s bng pht nhm su o cy bng. Mt khc, khi cnh ng c b hoang vo ma ng, cc nhm thin ch cng khng th hot ng cho n khi v gieo trng bt u. Phi hp gia lp ph thc vt trng sau thu hoch vi vic "cy bo tn" (khng cy lt phi i) c rt nhiu ci li: gim xi mn t, tng vt cht hu c, tng tnh gi m ca t, lu tr li cc cht dinh dng, kim sot c di, tng cng kh nng kim sot dch hi t nhin. Cc bin php phng nga khc bao gm: xen v, trnh n canh din rng, li cc di t khng canh tc, trng trn b rung cc loi cy lm ch tr n quanh nm ca thin ch . . . cng c tc dng phng nga bng pht dch hi. Vic trng t inh hng v/ hoc mt s loi c di dc theo b rung v cc din tch khng canh tc khc cng to ra ch tr ng cho thin ch v to ra s cn bng gia thin ch v su hi trong thi gian trng trt. V d, loi c ui nga l nhng ni tr n ca rp cy v cc thin ch ca chng. Thc t l cn trng khoi cc cy ny hn l cy bng. Cc s liu iu tra cho thy cc loi cy ny c vai tr nh mt loi c mi nh rp cy trnh xa cy bng. Thc t cho thy rp cy s lp tc tn cng vo bng nu khng c nhng cy khc lm vt ch b rung do hot ng cht trng. Ninh Thun, ngi trng nho trng u dn d rp nho. Mt loi hoa dn d xn tc n hi cy sapch (hng xim) cng c ngi lm vn Hu s dng. Thuc tnh ma v
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Xem xt cc loi cy trng nh l nhng yu t hot ng ca mi tng tc a din (mi tng tc dinh dng a chiu) l vn ct li ca tip cn h thng ton din ca kim sot dch hi. Nhng pht hin mi y v mi tng tc dinh dng ba chiu gia cy trng - ng vt n thc vt - ng vt n tht/ k sinh cho thy mi gn kt cht ch gia cc yu t ny v minh ho cho tm quan trng ca tng tc dinh dng a chiu c li nh th no cho chin lc kim sot dch hi bn vng v hiu qu. t rt lu, ngi ta bit r thc vt c cc c t v c cc ho cht khc nhm ngn cn nhm cn trng n thc vt. Mt s loi cy phng v trc nhm cn trng n thc vt bng cch tit ra cc cht bay hi hp dn nhm cn trng n tht v k sinh, ri chnh cc nhm ny s tn cng li nhm cn trng n thc vt. V d cy bng vi khi b su xanh gm s tit ra cht terpenoids hp dn bn cn trng k sinh C. marginiventris. C ch ny minh ha cho vic cy trng c kh nng gii phng cc cht bay hi ch khi b bn cn trng n thc vt nh chn, v chng tit ra cc cht dn d bay hi trn ton b cy. Mt s loi bng vi hoang di c kh nng tit cht dn d thin ch cao hn 10 ln so vi cc loi cy bng vi gieo trng. Cy trng c th cung ng thc n cho mt s loi thin ch nht nh. Mt hoa chng hn, cung cp thc n cho mt s cn trng k sinh nh C.marginiventris, Microplitis croceipes, Cardiochiles nigriceps. . . nhng loi ny c kh nng kim sot cc nhm su hi bng nh su bng, rp cy. Tuy nhin mt hoa cng l thc n ca mt s loi su hi, v d su bm. Mt s ging cy bng vi c trng li khng c loi mt hoa c chc nng nh vy. R rng chng ta cn c nhiu thng tin hn xy dng mt chin lc kim sot dch hi hp l (Lewis, 1997) [17]. C chua v khoai ty c kh nng tit cht kim sot protease trn ton cy (cc cht ny c kh nng can thip vo qu trnh tiu
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ha v hnh vi n ung ca cn trng) khi l ca chng b su bm gm, cc cht ny tit ra lin tc qu. H thng ny chc hn c t nhin chn lc v chc chn l bn vng nht. Mt h thng th hin chc nng phng v qu nhng ch th hin khi l b cn trng gm. to ra s bo v cc i cho qu. Chin lc ny ng thi cung cp ti nguyn "vt ch/ mi" cho php c s tham gia ca khi lin minh vt k sinh/ vt n tht. Chng ta cn phi quan st v nghin cu cc h thng t nhin khi pht trin cc chin lc s dng cc bin i en, nh en to ra cc cht c ca vi khun Bacilusthuringensis (Bt). V d cc ging bng vi c bin i en c kh nng sn xut ra c t Bt c trng khp ni. K thut ny lm cho ton b cy bng lin tc nh ra c t Bt. Cha bnh (dit dch): bin php sau cng Liu php dit su hi c vai tr quan trng trong chin lc qun l dch hi trn c s sinh thi, nhng cn coi l hnh ng sau cng ch khng phi u tin. Nguyn tc c bn l kim sot s su hi trong ngng chp nhn c vi tc ng gy nhiu lon sinh thi cng t cng tt. Cc sn phm tng hp, sn phm t nhin, sinh vt sng u c tc dng cha bnh (dit hi). Tuy l sn phm t nhin hoc khng c nhng khng c ngha l chng t lm xo trn sinh thi hn cc sn phm tng hp. Vn quan trng hn l chng cn phi hot ng cng ho hp cng tt vi cc sc khng ni ti ca h thng. Gi tr bn cc cht dit cn trng sinh hc hng nm M khong 110 triu USD, trong Bt l chnh (90 triu USD). Nhn chung, vi sinh vt hot ng chm hn. nn ngnh cng nghip tp trung vo sn xut ha cht hoc cc chng vi sinh H gc nhanh, tiu dit gn" l chnh. "H gc nhanh" c th cho cc hiu qu tc th, nhng cng tiu dit lun c ngun lc ca cc k sinh trng (c li) iu lm cho th h su hi sau khng b cn tr v vn su hi li xut hin.
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Chng ta cn nh - mc tiu chnh ca chng ta trong qun l dch hi khng phi l tiu dit su hi m lm sao s lng ca chng nm trong ngng chp nhn c. Vai tr ca cha tr khng th thay th cho h thng t nhin, m ch thc s c vai tr tch cc khi h t nhin b mt cn bng tm thi. Tip cn h thng em li ngun li ngy cng ln cho c h thng canh tc ln x hi. Phng php ny tnh ton tt c cc tc ng ln cc ti nguyn thin nhin nh ng vt v thc vt, cht lng v a dng cnh quan, s bo tn nng lng v cc ti nguyn khng ti to. Cc ngun li lu di ca x hi nh vic lm, sc kho cng ng, phc li ca cc c nhn gn lin vi nng nghip. Mt th nghim vng Nagele H Lan lin tc 15 nm t 1979 - 1994 v p dng tip cn h thng cho thy thuc tr su gim trn 90%, phn bn nhn to c thay bng phn hu c v nng sn ph sau v thu hoch, cn trng, c di, dch hi gim do vic kim sot t nhin bi thin ch, do cc bin th cy trng c sc cnh tranh cao vi c di hoc khng su bnh . . . Thu hoch c thp i mt cht nhng b li, chi ph dng mua phn bn v thuc tr su cng gim i (Lewis, 1997) [17]. Nh vy, phng tr dch hi bn vng, cn phi m bo c tnh tri ca mt h sinh thi rung cy trng lnh mnh, thng qua qu trnh t iu chnh ca mng phn hi trong h thng. 4.8. Nghin cu trng hp 4 - ng dng Tip cn H thng xc lp cc tiu ch mi trng cho im ti nh c bn vng 4.8.1. Gii thiu chung Ti nh c - TC l vic lp mt ni , mt qun c mi cho mt nhm h gia nh hoc mt cng ng v nhng l do rt khc nhau. Vi mc tiu qun l, ngi ta thng chia TC lm hai loi:
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TC t pht c to ra do cc dng di dn t do, v TC theo k hoch. Loi TC th hai ph bin hn, nhm: a) B tr li dn- c v cc l do n nh kinh t - x hi, an ninh, quc phng, hoc trnh cc a im thin tai, s c mi trng; b) Nh nc thu hi t ai pht trin c s h tng. Ring v l do (b) trn y, theo Ngn hng Th gii, mi thp k qua trn ton cu li c khong 100 triu ngi phi TC; nc ta, mi nm c khong 40 - 50 d n TC ti s lng h dn phi di chuyn trung bnh l 100 ngn h. Tng kt s thnh bi ca nhiu d n TC trn ton cu (d nhin i b phn l cc nc ang pht trin), t chc Nng Lng Th gii (FAO) nhn ra mt quy lut: "nh gi mi trng ng vai tr ch cht trong vic xc nh tnh kh thi ca mt m hnh TC", v "vic lp k hoch TC s si lm cho con ngi d b tn cng bi hng lot him ha nh ngp lt, bnh tt. ngho i . .. Chnh v th, FAO cng b ti liu ch nam cho d n ci nh c vng nhit i m" (Nh xut bn Nng nghip, H Ni, 1991 ). Tuy nhin ni dung cc tiu ch mi trng ca Ch nam ch tp trung vo thin tai im TC v nhng kim k ti nguyn thin nhin. cng l cc tiu ch nh tnh, c gi tr lc duyt. Trn thc t bn "Ch nam . . ." ca FAO vn cha h c ng dng y cho cc d n TC trong nc, nht l cc d n do cp tnh v huyn qun l v thc hin. Trn thc t, vic la chn im TC trong nc mi ch tp trung vo cc tiu ch kinh t - k thut, x hi v an ninh quc phng. Cc tiu ch mi trng hu nh khng c cp, lm cho khng t d n TC khng thc s thnh cng. C nhiu l do khc nhau ca thc t ny, nhng quan trng hn c l cc hng dn mi trng cho d n TC, hoc thiu, hoc qu rm r v nh tnh khin cho vic p ng cc i hi ny trong khu lp d n thng b b qua hoc c lm chiu l. Trn thc t, tr cc
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d n TC c vay vn hay ti tr quc t (vn ca WB hay ADB) i hi phi lp bo co nh gi tc ng mi trng (TM) nghim ngt, cc d n TC t ngun ti chnh trong nc thng b qua hoc lm chiu l khu xy dng v thm nh bo co TM, nht l cc d n cp tnh tr xung. Thc t trn i hi phi la chn, tinh gim cc tiu ch mi trng sao cho, mt mt m bo tnh an ton v mi trng ca im TC c chn, mt khc d p dng, d thm nh v kim sot bi cc chuyn gia xy dng v thm nh d n. "Khng qu phc tp trnh b b qua" - y chnh l nguyn tc ti thiu, tuy thc dng nhng khng h km hiu qu trong thc t la chn v xy dng cc im TC. 4.8.2. Cc tiu ch mi trng cn cho mt im TC bn vng Phn tch h thng mi trng cho mt im TC ng dng tip cn h thng trong nghin cu mi trng cho php cc nh qun l c ci nhn ton din v linh ng trong vic la chn mt im TC. y, cc yu t kinh t - k thut v x hi khng c cp v trn thc t chng c cc d n TC tnh ton kh cn k, vn cn li l cc tham s mi trng. - Xc nh hng bc cha h thng: Nu coi cc yu t mi trng l mt h thng, th h thng ton din ca mt im TC l thng h ca h thng mi trng. Trong thng h ny, cc h thng mi trng, kinh t - k thut v x hi - nhn vn l cc h thng tng i c lp v tng tc vi nhau theo quy tc nhn qu. H thng mi trng to iu kin v cung ng cc dch v mi trng cho hai h thng cn li v cng chu nh hng ca hai h thng ny c th tr nn tt hn hay xu i. Mc tiu ca thng h c ngha quyt nh i vi vai tr ca mi h thng
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trong thng h. V d mt im TC dc bin gii hay hi o c mc tiu chnh l m an ninh quc phng, th vai tr ca h thng x hi - nhn vn thng ln hn vai tr ca hai h thng cn li. Nu TC nhm pht trin th hay vng kinh t mi, th vai tr ca h thng kinh t - k thut li c t ln hng u. y, chng ta thy r ngha ca nguyn tc ti thiu nhc ti trong mc 1 . C l ch ti nhng im du lch, ngh dng hoc khu bo tn, vai tr ca h thng mi trng mi thc s ni tri v nguyn tc ti thiu mi cn b sung thm. - Xc nh chc nng cu trc ca h thng mi trng ti im TC: H thng mi trng ca mt im TC c 2 chc nng c bn: Chc nng th nht: Cung ng mt ni an ton. y l chc nng quan trng nht. Cc vng t thng cha cc him ho tim n (cn gi l tai bin tim n). Nhng him ha ny c th do thin nhin hoc con ngi to ra. i vi mt t nc ng dn nh nc ta, cc vng dn c tp trung nh hnh, thm ch t lu i, thng l cc vng lc a (t lnh). Nhng vng t tha dn c nhiu din tch thun li thit lp cc im TC thng l nhng vng t "c vn ", nhiu khi vic gii quyt cc "vn " li nm ngoi nng lc ca da n TC, i hi d n phi c tr gip bng cc ngun lc t bn ngoi d n. Nu s tr gip khng hin thc v khng mc, tt nht l hy b da n chn mt im TC khc an ton hn. Chc nng chnh ca h thng mi trng c o bng cc tham s sau y - mi tham s l mt chiu xc nh khng gian tn ti v bin i ca h thng: 1) Khng xy ra thin tai: l qut, trt l, xi l, ln st, l lt hng nm, st nh (trn 3 lm nm).
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2) Khng c d thng phng x t nhin cao hn tiu chun mi trng: y l phng x to ra do t c cha cc khong vt x. Tiu chun tm thi ca Vit Nam (1983) l cng phng x nh hn 0,1 Rem/ nm. 3) Khng nm trong cc h sinh thi t nhin nguy him: cc dch a phng hnh thnh ti cc h sinh thi c hi (sn l phi, sn mng, st vng, dch hch. . . ) hoc im TC c ch vi kh hu c hi n mc pht sinh bnh tt 4) Khng cn st bom mn hay cht c ha hc t thi chin tranh cha c lm sch. 5) Khng nm trong hnh lang bo v ca cc ng in cao th c in th t 35 KV tr ln. 6) C khong cch an ton ti cc trung tm pht x nhim nghim trng: ngha a ang hot ng (nht l ngha a nm pha u ngun nc), bi chn lp ph thi (k c cht thi nguy hi v bi rc sinh hot) ang hot ng, trong phm vi x thi trn tiu chun mi trng ca kh thi nh my, trong phm vi x nc thi cha c x l t tiu chun mi trng ca hm m hay cc x nghip cng nghip, khong cch khng an ton n cc kho xng du, kho ha cht, bom n, . . . Chc nng th hai: Cung cp cc dch v mi trng ti thiu. Dch v mi trng c th c ci thin nh u t, v th tuy c vai tr quan trng, nhng kh nng sn c ca mt im TC ch mang ngha th yu nu so vi cc chc nng th nht. Dch v mi trng ti thiu c o bng ba tham s sau: 1) Kh nng cung cp nc sch cho sinh hot ca cng ng TC: c th l nc ti ch (nc mt, nc ngm, nc ma) hoc nc ng ng dn t ngoi phm vi im TC v Tiu chun cp nc cho a bn nng thn ca Vit Nam hin nay l 60 lt/ ngun ngy, n 2010 l 80 lt/ ngi/ ngy
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2) din tch xy dng h thng thot nc v x l nc thi (khi cn thit). 3) din tch xy dng tuyn thu gom v x l rc sinh hot. Bi chn lp rc sinh hot cn phi chn lp rc lin tc trong 20 - 25 nm. Cn tnh din tch d phng lp bi rc mi khi bi rc c y. Vic tnh ton dch v mi trng ca im TC cn phi c quy hoch di hn, c tnh n kh nng tng dn s t nhin v tng c hc sau khi d n TC hon tt. Ch s o dch v mi trng (ti thiu) ESM (Environmental Service Measure), c xut ln u quy hoch im TC sau khi 6 tiu ch an ton sinh thi c m bo.

Trong s Cl = C2 + C3 = 2 v Nc Sch v v sinh mi trng l hai mng tng ng nhau. Cc ch th n Ii c tnh bng phng trnh tng quan

Trong : Ii thc l gi tr do dc ca tham s Ii ti im TC. It: kh nng cung cp nc sch, trng s Cl = 2,0, vi It min = 5 lt/ ngi/ ngy I1 max > 85 lt/ ngi/ ngy (theo ch tiu ca chng trnh Nc sch v V sinh mi trng Quc gia n 2010) I2 : din tch dnh cho xy dng h thng thu gom (v x l
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nc thi, vi trng s C3 = 1,0 I2 min = 0 I2 max c xc nh theo quy m dn s ca im TC I3 din tch dnh cho xy dng h thng thu gom v chn lp cht thi sinh hot. trng s C3 = 1,0 I3 min = 0 I3 max c xc nh theo quy m dn s ca im TC ESM c gi tr bin thin t 0,0 (im TC khng c dch v mi trng) n 1,0 (dch v mi trng t gi. tr max) Tra cu cc tiu ch mi trng H thng mi trng ca mt im TC bn vng, nh phn tch mc 2.1, bao gm hai phn h: Phn h an ton sinh thi gm 6 tham s (3 tham s mi trng t nhin, 3 tham s mi trng nhn to) v Phn h dch v mi trng ti thiu (3 tham s). Bng sau y nhm hng dn cch thm nh mi trng la chn im TC bn vng. Bng 12. Tra cu cc tiu chi mi trng ca im TC

TT Tn tham s ca im TC C kh nng xy ra l qut trt l, xi l, ln, st, l lt 1 hng nm, st nh trn 3 ln/ nm? C d thng phng x t nhin cao hn tiu chun mi 2 trng?

Hin trng

Cch x l Chn v tr TC khc.

C Khng c C Khng c Tip tc xem xt tham s 3. Tip tc xem xt tham s 2. Chn v tr TC khc.

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3 im TC c nm trong h sinh thi c hi?

C Khng c

Chn v tr TC khc. Tip tc xem xt tham s 4 Tho g, lm sch, nu khng th th phi chn v tr khc. Tip tc xem xt tham s 5. Chn v tr TC khc.

Ti im TC, cn st bom mn cht c ho hc thi chin tranh?

C Khng c

Nm trong hnh lang bo v an ton ca ng in cao 5 th 35KV?

C Khng c Tip tc xem xt tham s 6

X l nhim, nu khng th th im TC c khong cch phi chn v tr TC khc. 6 khng an ton n cc trung Khng an ton tm pht x nhim nghim trng? An ton Kh nng cp nc sch 7 Tnh ton ESM.

Tnh ton ESM; ESM=0: Tm v tr khc; 0ESM 0,5: Cn u t ln cho dch v mi trng; 0,5<ESM 0,7: C th chp nhn Tnh cc gi im TC, cn u t cho dch Kh nng xy dng h thng tr: li thc v mi trng; 0,7< ESM 0,9: 8 thu gom v x l nc thi. im TC tt; 0,9< ESM: im li max TC k vng. li min Kh nng xy dng h thng 9 thu gom v chn lp cht thi sinh hot.

4.8.3. Nghin cu trng hp: mt s im TC Qung Nam v Thi Nguyn Ti nh c l lnh vc bc xc, ang thu ht nhiu ngun lc
159

ca Qung Nam. Nhng l do ch yu l: ti nh c cho cc cng ng chu nh hng ca hin tng st l v l lt ven cc h thng sng Thu Bn v Vu Gia; nh c mt b phn ng bo min ni c ch cha n nh ra dc tuyn xa l H Ch Mnh; ti nh c km theo gii phng mt bng phc v cho pht trin c s h tng, chnh trang th v xy dng cc khu cng nghip tp trung. S h cn TC trong tnh, tnh n nm 2003 l gn 19 ngn h vi dn s xp x 100 ngn ngi. Trong nhng nm ti, 36 x dc tuyn xa l H Ch Minh v cc tuyn dng nhnh min ni pha Ty Qung Nam nm trong din phi cung cp cc im TC mi. 3 im TC cho dn vng st l huyn i Lc v 2 im TC mi dc xa l H Ch Minh huyn ng Giang hon tt v c la chn nghin cu. Huyn i T - Thi Nguyn c 3 x nm trong din gii phng mt bng cho d n khai thc m a kim. D kin m s bt u hot ng t 2007. Hn 1400 h vi khong 7000 nhn khu s phi ti nh c. C 5 im TC mi c d kin la chn, y cng l i tng c nghin cu. M t tm tt c im mi trng ca 10 im TC thuc 2 tnh Qung Nam v Thi Nguyn c trnh by trong bng sau (tn ca im TC c vit tt v nhng l do nhy cm). Bng 13. V d v mt s im TC Qung Nam v Thi Nguyn
TT Tn im TC c im ni bt v mi trng nh gi v kin ngh

160

PT - x i Quang, i Lc, Qung Nam.

- im TC dn vng st l ven sng Vu Gia, m bo 6 tiu ch an ton sinh thi, din tch xy dng cc cng trnh v sinh mi trng. im TC xy dng trn nn t km thm, vo ma kh thng thiu nc sinh hot. Kh nng dn nc ng ng khng kh thi v xa ngun cp. Nc ging o cht lng m bo nhng kh nng cung cp hin nay ch khong 50 lt/ngi/ngy.

im TC t cc yu cu v mi trng. Nc sinh hot l mt kh khn kh p ng Nu khng c d n cp nc trong tng lai, quy m dn s ca im TC s khng th m rng p ng cho nhu cu gia tng dn s t nhin v c hc.

SC - x i Lnh, i Lc, Qung Nam AT - x i Minh, i Lc, Qung Nam.

C vn v an ton sinh thi: nm im TC khng di trng in cao th 110 KV, nm t yu cu st di ngha a ang hot ng ca a phng (ngha a pha trn sn dc, cao hn im TC). m bo 6 tiu ch an ton sinh thi. nc sinh hot (nc ging) din tch xy dng h thng thu gom v chn lp cht thi sinh hot. Quy hoch khng c din tch xy dng h thng thu gom v x l nc thi. I1 =1,0. I2=0. I3=1,0. ESM=0,75. Gii to mt s cng trnh, nh ca, v t vn giao cho dn quy hoch h thng nc thi (vic ny rt kh khn vi cp x v t giao ht cho dn xy dng nh g.

161

Bc PR - im TC nm di sn dc c im TC khng ng nguy c trt l cao. Khong 25% mt t yu cu Giang. bng xy dng l t b vn san lp sng sui. Nguy c l ng vo ma Qung ma. Nam. AS ng Giang, Qung Nam. - m bo 6 tiu ch an ton sinh thi v mt bng cho xy dng cc h thng v sinh mi trng. Nc snh hot di do v lng nhng l nc cng thc vi) gy nguy c pht trin bu c v mt s bnh ng tiu ho. I1=0,50 (khng m bo cht lng). I2=I3=1,0. ESM=0,75. im TC c ESM t yu cu. Vic x l nc cng rt kh khn cn c iu tra xy dng h thng cp nc an ton t ngoi vng. i hi ny rt t kh thi v qu tn km.

LC - i im d kin TC nm st trn hm im d kin TC T. Thi l khai thc than . Ngun nc khng t yu cu Nguyn. ging rt hn ch do tht thot theo hm l. Nguy c ln st lan to t hm l. KTT i T, Thi Nguyn. nhim t v nc nghim trng do im d kin TC nh hng ca v phong ho c hm khng t yu cu lng kim loi nng cao. Vi kh hu lnh m trong ma ng gy bnh h hp v khp..

LC - i im TC l vng san lp h lu mt im d kin TC T, Thi dng sui. Nguy c l v xi l. khng t yu cu Nguyn. SC2 - i im TC l vt ph sa nm b l im d kin TC T, ca sng Cng. Nguy c xi l v lt. khng t yu cu Thi Nguyn.

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10 BT - i im TC xem ghp trong khu dn c im TC l T, Thi c, m bo 6 tiu ch an ton sinh tng, c th a Nguyn. thi. Nc ging phong ph v im vo xy dng. TC nm trn thm ph sa c, d din tch xy dng cc cng trnh v sinh mi trng. ESM=1,0.

Nhn xt: Cn c vo cc tiu ch mi trng chn, trong s 10 im TC nghin cu, c: 1 im (BT - i T - Thi Nguyn) t yu cu k vng v mi trng. 3 im (PT, AT, AS - Qung Nam) cn u t nng cp kh nng dch v mi trng. Hai trong s ba im ny (AS v PT) rt kh ci thin cht lng v khi lng ngun nc sinh hot. 6 im cn li khng t yu cu v an ton sinh thi cn di chuyn. 4.9. Nghin cu trng hp 5 - Tnh g gh ca h thng v ng dng 4.9.1. Khi nim v cu trc g gh v th nguyn thp phn Cc vt th Euclit u c mt s chiu nht nh v l s nguyn. V d on thng, ng thng l mt chiu (th nguyn D = 1, D l vit tt ca ch Dimension, mt phng l 2 chiu (D = 2), cc vt th c thm chiu dy s c 3 chiu (D = 3). Nu kho st thm chiu thi gian nghin cu vt th khng gian, chng ta c D = 4 .v.v. . . Tuy nhin trn thc t, c nhng i tng c th nguyn thp phn.
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- Bi Canto: ly mt on thng [O, l], b i 1/3 gia s cho 2 on ngn. Mi on ngn li tip tc b i 1/3 gia, ta c 4 on. Tip tc v hn s ln b i 1/3 nh vy, ta s c v hn s on ngn. Mi on ngn ny c gi l mt ht bi Canto v tp hp cc ht bi Canto s cho mt m bi Canto. D s vi on thng (bi Canto) c tng bao nhiu, chng vn khng vt qu kch thc on thng [0,1]. Tnh bng phng php ton hc, chng ta c th nguyn ca bi Canto l 0,6309 . . . c ngha l 0 < D < 1 ,0. y l th nguyn thp phn. - ng cong Koch (cn gi l ng cong bng tuyt): ly mt tam gic u, mi cnh l mt n v, chu vi tam gic bng 3. Ti on thng di 1/3 gia mi cnh. ta dng c 3 tam gic u vi cnh bng 1/3, ton b l 6 tam gic u nh c cnh nh vy. Trn mi cnh ca tam gic u nh, 1/3 gia mi cnh, li dng mt tam gic u nh hn. Tam gic ny c cnh l 1/9. . . Qu trnh c th tip din . . . Hnh tam gic s tr thnh hnh bng tuyt, chu vi .ca n ln hn 3 nhng b gi trong phn mt phng ca hnh trn ngoi tip tam gic ln nht. Chu vi hnh bng tuyt c gi l ng cong Koch. ng cong ny c th nguyn ln hn th nguyn ng thng (D>l), nhng nh hn th nguyn mt phng (D < 2). Tnh ton cho thy ng cong Koch c th nguyn D = 1,2618 l th nguyn l. - Bt bin Menger: chn mt khi lp phng c cc cnh bng 1. Chia mi cnh thnh 3 phn, chng ta s c mi mt khi lp phng s c 9 hnh vung. Khot ly khi lp phng nh gia mi mt v ghp vo bn cnh ca khi lp phng. Mi vung trong s 8 cn li cng lm theo cch nh vy c mi mt gm 9 hnh vung nh, ri khot vung nh ghp vo cnh. . . Qu trnh ny lm tng v hn cc khi lp phng nh, tng th tch ca chng vn bng khi lp phng ban u nhng din tch b mt s tng ln v hn. Cui cng, ta c mt khi
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dng bt bin, c tn l bt bin Menger (ly theo tn nh ton hc ngh ra m hnh ny). Th nguyn ca bt bin Menger s nm trong khong 2 < D < 3. Ngi ta tnh c D 2,7. Vo thp nin 1990, nh ton hc ngi Php c tn l Benoit Mandelbrot gi cc cu trc c th nguyn thp phn l cu trc Fractal, ngha l cu trc g gh [21]. Trn thc t, cc h thng Fractal l ph bin, cc h thng c th nguyn l s nguyn ch l nhng trng hp c bit. ng b bin khc khuu, hnh rng ca ca l dng x, ca nh cc dy ni in trn nn tri . . . l m phng ng cong Koch. L phi ca con ngi vi th tch khong 6 lt nhng li c din tch xp x bng mt sn qun vt, hnh dng ca cc bc tng cch m x x; b mt ni nh ca ton b cy ci trong mt khu rng. . . l m phng bt bin Menger. Nh vy, cu trc Fractal nm gia th gii hn lon khng kim sot c v th gii trt t cng nhc ca hnh hc Euclit. 4.9.2. H thng Fractal M rng khi nim Fractal vo cc h thng, chng ta cng s c cc h thng n chiu vi n khng phi l s nguyn. l cc h thng g gh. Ni cch khc, bt c h thng no c nhiu lon phi c coi l mt h thng Fractal. S li lm ca ng b bin, ting n trong ng dy thng tin, s ln xung ca gi c. . . l nhng biu hin ca cc h thng g gh c xc nh t thi Mandelbrot [13, 21]. C iu l cha c phng php xc nh chnh xc th nguyn ca mt h thng Fractal n chiu trong h sn xut. Cu trc g gh vi th nguyn thp phn gn rt cht vi s nhiu lon. Th nguyn thp phn gi vai tr tng t nh entropy trong h thng v chnh chng to ra cc hnh vi lch chun ca h thng. Chng lm ri lon cc vng lp phn hi, lm nhiu ng
165

cc chu k. Nhng cng chnh nh m thin nhin v x hi mi tr nn a dng. Mt h thng cn bng bi l khng ch cc hnh vi khng lch chun l c chu k v n nh, m chnh nhng hnh vi lch chun cng c quy lut ring, tt nhin, l quy lut kh nhn ra trong mt khng gian "hon ho Euclit, trong phng cch t duy tnh v/ hoc n ngnh. H thng kinh doanh ca Tng cng ty Khnh Vit (Khatoco) thuc tnh Khnh Ha theo m hnh cng ty m - cng ty con, cho ta hnh nh mt h thng g gh nhiu th nguyn. Doanh nghip ny c 12 n v kinh t ph thuc v 5 n v kinh t c lp, kinh doanh a ngnh: dt - may, giy carton, giy vit, v hc sinh, in bao b, thuc l khch sn, du lch, c kh, chn nui iu, c su . . . Nu coi mi lnh vc kinh doanh l mt chiu ca h thng Khatoco, v coi lnh vc kinh doanh t hiu qu nht theo k vng c th nguyn = 1,0 th trong trng hp k vng, Khaloco c th nguyn D = 17,0. Tuy nhin mc u t v hiu qu kinh doanh ca mt s lnh vc khng bao gi t mc nh mt s lnh vc khc khin cho th nguyn ca h thng l th nguyn thp phn. Cu trc Fractal trong lnh vc kinh doanh a chiu ca Khatoco khin cho hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty kh vng, khng bao gi cng lc xy ra thua l ton b 17 lnh vc. a dng sinh hc v bin ng ca chng trong mt khu bo tn thin nhin, quy m v nng lc bo v mi trng ca cc ngnh trong mt tnh; s tham gia bo v mi trng ca cc on th chnh tr ti mt a phng, nhn thc v mi trng ca mi ngi trong cng ng, kho mnh ca cc rn san h ti mt vng bin v.v. . . u cho cc hnh nh v s g gh ca h thng. g gh ca ng b bin gip cho trit tiu nng lng sng v b. Tnh a dng loi trong mt khu bo tn thin nhin gp phn to ra xch thc n hon ho hn v khu bo tn c tnh n hi cao hn trc bin ng mi trng. S a dng ha cc
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lnh vc kinh doanh khin doanh nghip khng b ph sn. Vic phn quyn qun l mi trng cho cc cp a phng (tnh, huyn, x) lm cho mi trng c qun l tt hn l vic tp trung nhim v vo c quan cp tnh/ thnh ph nh thi gian trc y. Nhn thc v mi trng khc nhau ca cc c nhn to iu kin cho cc sng kin, gii php c o ca mi cng ng v.v . . Cu hi tho lun chng 4 1. Ti sao ni cc h thng sn xut l ni tp trung cao cc vn v mi trng v pht trin cn phi c u tin nghin cu ? Ngoi 5 c tnh ca h sn xut, cn c th tm thm nhng c tnh no khc khng? 2. C kin cho rng, trong mt h sn xut, c IX tt, nhng nu c thm 10X tt na th h thng s tt hn v bn vng hn. Hy bnh lun kin ny. 3. Hy s dng tip cn h thng phn tch mt h sn xut khc cha c nghin cu trong chng 4, v d mt lng ngh mt im du lch, mt vn quc gia... m bn quen bit.

167

Kt lun chung

Mi trng l mt h thng m, a thnh phn. Vi s xut hin ca con ngi, bn cht ca h thng mi trng tr thnh h thng sinh thi nhn vn. l mt h thng a din, a gi tr, mm v c tnh thch ng. Pht trin hay suy thoi l xu th bin ng ca h thng mi trng. V vy, tip cn h thng l phng php ton din gip cho cc lnh vc nghin cu, qun l mi trng v pht trin cng ng c th xem xt cc vn mi trng theo quan im ng, tin ha, trong mi quan h tng h vi cc thnh t khc cng thi hay khc thi gian vi thnh t ang xt theo logic "nguyn nhn - kt qu". Trong cc h nhn to, cc vn mi trng v pht trin t nhiu u c th iu khin c theo hng tt ln hay xu i. D nhin iu ny ph thuc vo rt nhiu iu kin, nhng trc ht ph thuc vo k nng phn tch v iu khin h thng ca cc nh qun l. Phn tch h thng gip cho nh qun l c th d bo cc mc khc nhau v s bin i ca h thng mi trng di tc dng ca mt u vo no y. ng thi cng gip cho nh qun l tm kim, pht hin v s dng cc ti nguyn c sn trong b (vn d tr ca h thng), v mc tiu ci thin cht lng ca h thng. y l cch "lm vic ln m khng tn km", rt ph hp vi cc chng trnh xa i gim ngho v pht trin cng ng. Trong lnh vc qun l mi trng v pht trin cng ng,
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cc tip cn x hi hc v t nhin hc khng th tch ri cc yu t cu trc cc chc nng ca h thng tng tc vi nhau, to ra nhng tnh cht mi m ch h thng mi c. Vic hiu cn k v qun tr ton din mt h thng mi trng v pht trin l iu khng th, v nhiu lon tt nh mang nhiu yu t ngoi tm kim sot ca chng ta. Mt bin i rt nh thun xu th c th gy ra nhng bin ng ln, thm ch sp h thng. Ch khi vn ny sinh chng ta mi nhn ra. Tuy nhin, chng ta c th t nhiu kim sot c mt phn cc nhiu lon. y l nhng nhiu lon c th nh hng c. 17 cng c phn tch c th s dng cho mc tiu ny, trong , c nhng gi trnh 10 phn ct yu ca tip cn h thng. Tip cn H thng cho n nay cha phi l mt h phng php hon ho. V c bn, l mt cch t duy, nhn nhn s vt vi con mt tng th, bin ng lin tc trong mi tng tc khng ngng gia cc t phn cu trc ni ti ca h thng v gia h thng vi mi trng ca n. Tip cn H thng l mt lnh vc ang pht trin mnh. im khim khuyt nht ca Tip cn H thng ti thi im hin nay l cha th l gii c cc vn nhiu lon h thng, cc vn v quan h tng cu gia cc yu t cu trc to nn h thng, v s iu khin khng bng lc hay bng nng lng, v s c mt ca cc vt cht ti v nng lng en trong h thng... Gii quyt tt cc vn "Bn ngoi khoa hc ny cho php s pht trin nhy vt ca Tip cn H thng trong tng lai.

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Ti liu tham kho

[1] Phan Dng, 1996. V h thng v tnh h thng. Trung tm sng to KHKT, HQG TP. H Ch Minh. [2]. Nguyn Ngc Giao, 1998. Nhng iu k th v cc hnh thi hn lon. Chaos. Nh xut bn Gio dc, H Ni. [3]. Nguyn nh Ho, Nguyn Th Loan, 1998. nh gi nhanh mi trng v d n. S KHCN v MT Ninh Thun xut bn, Phan Rang. [4]. Nguyn nh Ho, Trn Phong, 1998. Mt s vn mi trng bc xc trong lnh vc chn th gia sc c sng v s dng ti nguyn nc Ninh Thun. Bo co tng kt nhim v Khoa hc - Cng ngh v Mi trng, S KHCN v MT Ninh Thun. [5]. Nguyn nh He, 1999. Cc h thng sinh thi nhn vn nhy cm trong pht trin. Tp ch Bo v Mi Trng No 4. [6]. Nguyn nh He, 2005. Tip cn H thng v kin to ch s trong qun l mi trng nui trng thy sn ven bin. K yu Hi tho ton quc Bo v mi trng v ngun li thu sn. Nh xut bn Nng nghip, H Ni, tr. 212-217. [7] . S tay hun luyn vin v k nng qun l pht trin cng ng. Hi Lin hip Ph n Vit Nam, H Ni, 1996. [8]. Brink, B. T., 1991. The AMOEBA approach as a useful tool for establishing sustainable development. In "In search of indicators of sustainable development" Kluwer Acad. Publ. London. U.K.
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[9]. Clayton, A. M. H. and N. J. Radcliffe, 1997. Sustaillability - A systems approacll. Eanhscan, London, U.K. [10] Dickinson, G. and K. Murphy, 1998. Ecosystems. Routledge, London, U.K. [11] Economopoulos, A. P., 1993. Systems Allalysis in Environmental Management. In Assessment of Sources in Air, Water and Land Ponution. WHO, Geneva. [12]. Gharajedaghi, J, 1999. T duy h thng Qun l hn n v phc hp. Nh xut bn Khoa hc X hi, H Ni, 2005. [13]. Gleick, J. 1991. La thorie du chaos. Flammarion, Pans, France. [14]. Haaf W. T., Bikker H. and Adriaanse D.J., 2002. Fundamentals of Business Engineering and Management A systems approach to people and organisations. Delft University Press, The Netherlands. [15]. Heylighen F., 1998. Basic Concepts of tlle Systems Approach. Principia Cybemetica Web: http://pespmcl.vub.ac.be/ [16]. IUCN, 1996. Assessing Progress towards Sustainability. Methods and Field Experience. [17]. Lewis W. J. et al. 1997. A total system approach to sustainable pest management. Proc. Nath. Acad. Sci. USA. Voi99, pp. 12243 - 12248. [18]. Rosnay J. D., 1979. The macroscope: a new world scientific system. Harper & Row, Publishers, New York, NY, USA. [19]. Senge, PM. Nguyn tc th 5: T duy h thng. Nh xut bn Tr, TP H Ch Minh, 2003. [20]. Trzyna, T.C. (Ed.) 1995. A Sustainable World. California Inst., Earthscan publ., USA.
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[21]. Trinh Xuan Thuan. 2001. Le Chaos et lharmonie. Libraine Arthem Fayard, Paris, France.

172

Ph lc Thut ng h thng

Sau y l cc thut ng c bn s dng trong phn tch h thng: Cn bng (equilibrium). L trng thi n nh, trng thi tnh ca h. Mt h thng t trng thi cn bng nu cc dng vo bng dng ra, do vn ca h khng thay i d rng ni dung vn lin tc thay i. Cu trc (structure). Mt b gm vn, dng, mng v tnh (lnh chm tr) quyt nh s gn kt ni ti ca h. Cu trc h xc nh dy cc kh nng ng x ca h. Tuy nhin thut ng cu trc thng c dng ch cc yu t vnh cu (permanent) hoc c iu chnh chm hoc khng thng xuyn (cc yu t kh n nh). Chu k trng thi (state cycle). Mt dy trn vn cc trng thi c th c ca h thng. Chuyn pha (phase transition). i vi h vt l l s chuyn trng thi i km vi s tng tc ng thi tt c cc t l. Chuyn tip (transition). L s thay i v cht trong hnh vi h thng ti mt s gi tr ti hn ca cc thng s kim sot. Dng (flow). L s chuyn giao vn (ngun d tr) gia cc b phn ca h. a phng din (multi - factionality). Kh nng mt yu t
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trong h thng va c chc nng kch ng (gy bin i trong cc yu t khc) va c chc nng b ng (b cc yu t khc gy bin i). u ra (output). Dng thot ra khi h, thng b bin dng di mt kiu no . u vo (input). Dng vo ca h, s b bin i trong h theo mt cch thc no . im cui (sink). im cui cng ca ng trong h thng. im ti hn (bifurcation point hoc critical point). Trong qu trnh tip cn ti gi tr ti hn (critical value) ca mt tham s kim sot (control parameter), mt h thng vt l c th ng x theo cch rt n nh. im ti hn l im m cc gi tr (thm vo) d nh nht cng s lm thay i c bn hnh vi ca h. im ti hn cn c gi l im phn nhnh. Entropy. i lng o nhiu lon trong mt h thng ho l. Khng th xc nh c entropy ca h thng mi trng v pht trin, nhng mt s dng nhiu lon nhn sinh c th nhn din c Fractal. Cu trc g gh, c th nguyn l. Hnh vi (behaviour): l kiu hot ng ca mt h thng theo thi gian. Mi h thng c mt kho lu tr hnh vi. H thng. Mt tp hp cc yu t lin kt vi nhau, to ra cu trc c th bc, tnh tri, tnh lan to v tnh kim sot. Mt s h thng l loi c tnh ng lc, thch ng, c mc tiu, t iu chnh (t bo v) hoc tin ha. Ph h l mt h thng con trong h, thng h l mt h thng ln trong h ang xt l mt h con. Khng gian pha (phase space). Mt h thng c th c
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biu din nh mt im ti mt thi im bt k trong mt khng gian tn ti ca n c gi l khng gian pha, cc trc ca khng gian l cc tham s kim sot v ta ca h l gi tr hin ti ca h. Kch bn (scenario). Khi qut v kt qu k vng ty thuc vo iu kin xut pht v hnh vi ca h thng. Lan ta (communication). L c tnh chuyn giao thng tin, trong trng hp cc h x hi th l chuyn giao ngha (meaning). Mt phng Poincar. Mt phng to vung gc 2 chiu c la chn trong s n chiu dng kho st qu o ca h thng. Mt phng SAM. Mt phng biu din hin trng cc tham s c trng ca mt h thng di dng cc hnh qut trong mt hnh trn c bn knh bng gi tr k vng ca mi tham s. Cn c gi l biu SAM. M hnh (model). Mt kin trc nhn thc dng m t. Mi trng (environment). L nhng th nm ngoi ranh gii ca h thng. Mng phn hi (feedback loop): Chui lp li cc quan h nhan qu mng phn hi tiu cc, nhng thay i gim dn, mng tch cc, cc thay i tng dn theo hng lan truyn. Mng phn hi tiu cc c xu th kim sot s tng trng, hn ch tng trng. Mng tch cc khuch i tng trng. Ngng (threshold). L im c s thay i v cht trong hnh vi ca mt yu t trong h thng hay ca c h thng. Vai tr ca ngng xut hin v mt s l do. V d c th xut hin nh l chc nng ca nhiu cn tr c lp, tng cn tr c th khng hot ng trong phm vi phong to ca
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cc cn tr khc, m hot ng bn ngoi phm vi y. Ngng cng xut hin trong cc h ri lon, khi cc h c cc i hnh vi n nh v cc i hnh vi khng n nh. Hc thuyt tai ho (catastrophe theory) l hc thuyt cho rng c nhng t bin (i lp vi hc thuyt ch trng bin i dn dn) i khi cng c s dng m t nhng s kin xy ra khi h sp hoc bin dng gh gm ti mt s im c bit. Ngun (source). im xut pht ca dng trong h thng. Nhiu lon (chaos). - Hnh vi lch chun ca h thng. C nhiu lon tin ha v nhiu lon suy thoi. C nhiu lon qun tr c, c nhiu lon ngoi kh nng qun tr ca con ngi. Khng d bo chnh xc c nhiu lon. - L khoa hc ca cc qu trnh ch khng phi ca cc trng thi, l khoa hc ca ci sp hnh thnh ch khng phi ca ci xc lp Chaos xa b ranh gii gia cc lnh vc khoa hc chuyn ngnh, k c t nhin v x hi. Phi tuyn (non - linearity). Quan h khng l l gia cc gi tr nguyn nhn v kt qu, ni cch khc th tng hp kt qu ca vic thay i hai hay nhiu tham s kim sot khng phi l tng ca nhng kt qu xy ra trong tng bin i ring bit. Qu ch (overshoot). Vt qua gi tr k vng. iu ny xy ra khi lm chm qu trnh phn hi, hoc qu trnh phn hi khng (khng tng hp), lm cho h khng th t iu chnh mt cch tng hp. y cng l chc nng ca tc bin i h, v d, s chm tr phn hi c th khng gy ra vn g tc bin i chm, nhng li gy ra vn khi
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tc bin i nhanh. Ranh gii (boundary). L ng phn chia c th hay tru tng gia h thng v mi trng xung quanh n. Sp (collapse). L s suy thoi khng kim sot c ca mt h thng, thng xy ra khi c h qu phn hi kch ng lm xi mn ranh gii ca h, hoc khi c mt s kin xm ln vo cc ngng ca h. S ghp ni (connectivity). L c tnh ca cc cu trc c chc nng chuyn giao tc ng trong h thng S tr phn ng (delay, time lag) l thi gian gia nguyn nhn v kt qu. Mt s yu t ca mt s h thng phn x chm hn cc yu t khc. Ti nguyn (resources). Phn vn ca h c th tip cn c: c th s dng bi h thng hoc c th mang ra khi h nh l mt dng u ra. Thng tin (information). L th gip cho h gim tnh bt nh. V mt k thut, thng tin c o lng da vo s lng cc la chn nh nguyn (binary choices) cn thit xc nh duy nht mt s kin. Khi nim thng tin trong h nhn vn phc tp hn. Tham s ha (parameterisation). T hp cc hin tng t l nh (phm vi nh) vi mng phn hi to ra mt m hnh bng cch ly tr trung bnh ca mt dy cc kt qu. Th bc (hierachy). Cu trc hu hiu c xc nh bi tnh tri, theo c trng ca cc cu trc y m cc h thng c thit lp, cng nh gp phn thit lp cc h thng khc ln hn hay nh hn. Trng thi (state). Trng thi ca h thng l tp hp tt c cc c trng quan trng ca h thng mt thi gian bt k.
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 h bt bin, trng thi ca h l khng thay i. h ng lc, trng thi ca h thay i lin tc. Khi m hnh ha h thng, cn s dng cc phng trnh m t bng cch no m mt h bin thnh mt h khc, v bng cch no m h bin i theo thi gian. Tuyn tnh (linearity). L quan h bc 1 gia nguyn nhn v kt qu, trong quan h ny, kt qu ca s thay i hai hay nhiu tham s kim sot cng lc l tng cc kt qu thay i ca ring lng tham s c lp. Mt s quan h phi tuyn (non - linearity) c th c biu din xp x vi quan h tuyn tnh, tuy nhin nhiu h phi tuyn phc tp th khng th v khng nn biu din bng m hnh tuyn tnh. Tnh n nh (stability). Kh nng ca h thng chng li nhiu lon. H n nh c entropy khng i hoc gim dn n 0. Tnh bt trc (ergodicity). Mt h bt trc l mt h, v nguyn tc c th chuyn t bt c trng thi cho trc sang bt c mt trng thi khc trong thi gian nht nh. H bt trc l h khng th d bo trng thi ca n. Tnh (attractor) Tnh l s n nh ca mt trng thi gip h thng tch khi cc trng thi khc. Khi trong trng thi , mt h thng c xu th duy tr nguyn trng cho n khi c mt tc ng bn ngoi mnh hoc mt bin i bn trong mnh chuyn h thng ra khi trng thi ban u. Lc c th rt mnh hoc rt yu. Mt h thng c th vn hnh qua mt lot trng thi ln lt vt qua tng trng thi mt (mi trng thi i hi h phi dng mt khong thi gian). Mt h bin i qua mt chu k tng i n gin, thng qua cng mt din th gm nhiu trng thi mt cch lin tc, c gi l h c chu k hn ch, hoc h c chu k. H c gi l k
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d (strange attractor) nu h c trng thi tng i n nh, nhng li to ra cc chu k khng n nh. Mt h k d s c mt qu o phn on (fractal trajectory). Tnh tri (emergence). L tnh cht ca h thng nhng cc t phn ring bit ca h khng c. Vn (stock). L kho d tr hoc khi lng vt cht, nng lng hoc thng tin (cn gi l ngun d tr trong h) gip cho h tn ti v bin i. Vng rng (hyper-region). Vng c khong tc ng ln. Xi mn (erosion). L s suy thoi ngun ti nguyn cung cp cho h. iu ny c th xy ra bn trong mng phn hi kch ng, c ngha l t thn s xi mn li to ra mt s xi mn tng lai. Xuyn sut (throughout). Dng nng lng, vt cht hay thng tin t ngun, vt qua s nho nn ca h thng, t n im cui ca h.

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DANH MC CC CH VIT TT
ADB: Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (Asian Development Bank). APRS: nh gi v quy hoch pht trin bn vng nng thn (Assessing and Planning Ruralsustainabiltty). ARS: nh gi tnh bn vng nng thn (Assessing Rural Suslainability). ASI: Ch s bn vng nui trng thy sn (Aquaculture Sustainability lndex). BS: Thc o tnh bn vng (Barometer of Sustainability). CMI: Ch s nhiu lon qun l ca h thng (Chaos Management lndex). CP: Cc vn t hp (Composite Problems). CPM: o ngho tim nng (Capacity Poverty Measure). D: Th nguyn, chiu (Dimension). EDI: Ch s Downione Sinh thi (Ecological Downione lndex}. ESM: o dch v mi trng (Environmental Selvice Measure). GDI: Ch s pht trin gii (Gender Development lndex). GSCS: Gia sc c sng. HDI: Ch s pht trin nhn vn (Human Developmenl lndex). HPI: Ch s ngho nhn vn (Human Poverty lndex). IPM: Qun l dch hi tng hp (lntegrated Pest Management). IUCN: T chc Bo tn thin nhin Quc t (lntemational
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Union for Conservation of Nature). LFA: Tip cn khung logic (Logical Framework Approach). LSI: Ch s pht trin bn vng a phng (Local Sustainability lndex). NBBLK: Phng php phn tch Nhn, Bit, Bn, Lm, Kim tra. PA: Thp hnh ng (Pyramid of Action). PARS: Quy hoch hnh ng nhm pht trin bn vng nng thn (Planning Actions for Rura/ Sustainability). PRA: nh gi nhanh c s tham gia (Participatory RapidAppraisal) SA&P: Phn tch h thng v quy hoch (System Ananysis and Planning). SAM: Biu nh gi bn vng (Sustainability Assessment Mapping). SMART: Phng php phn tch C th (Specirc), nh lng (Measurable), t c (Achieve), Hin thc (Realistic) v Thi gian (Time bound). SN: Thng thuyt chin lc (Strategic Negotiation). SWOT: Phng php phn tch Th mnh (Strength), im yu (Weakness), C hi (Oppotunity) v e da (Threat). TC: Ti nh c. UNDP: Chng trnh pht trin Lin hp quc (United Nation Development Program). WB: Ngn hng Th gii (World Bank).

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MC LC Trang
Gii thiu chung........................................................................................ 2 Chng 1: i Cng v h thng ........................................................... 9 1.1. nh ngha...................................................................................... 9 1.2. Cc c tnh v chc nng ca h thng........................................ 9 1.3. Xc nh h thng ........................................................................ 14 1.4. M hnh ha cc h thng ............................................................ 15 1.5. Tin ha v thch ng ca h thng ............................................. 18 1.6. Cc ngng ca h thng v h sinh thi ton cu ...................... 23 1.7. Tnh n nh ca h thng ........................................................... 25 1.8. Ri ro ca h thng ...................................................................... 27 1.9. Phi tuyn v im ti hn............................................................. 28 1.10. Khng gian pha v chuyn pha .................................................. 29 1.11. Tnh mm mi ca h thng....................................................... 32 1.12. Cc mc bn vng ca cc h thng kinh t x hi.............. 33 Chng 2: i Cng v tip cn h thng............................................ 36 2.1. Gii thiu chung........................................................................... 36 2.2. Cc hng tip cn h thng........................................................ 41 Chng 3: Cng c tip cn h thng ng dng trong nghin cu mi trng v pht trin................................................................................. 58 3.1. Gii thiu Chung.......................................................................... 58 3.2. Thc o tnh bn vng (BS) ...................................................... 59 3.3. Phn tch h thng v quy hoch ................................................. 62 3.4. Thp hnh ng............................................................................ 64 3.5. nh gi v quy hoch pht trin bn vng nng thn ............... 65 3.6. Thng thuyt chin lc ............................................................ 69 3.7. Biu SAM ............................................................................... 70 3.8. Biu Downjone sinh thi EDI ................................................. 74 3.9. Kin to ch s.............................................................................. 76 3.10. Phng php xc nh u tin v trng s u tin..................... 82 3.11. Phn tch khung logic - LFA...................................................... 85 3.12. Phn tch SWOT ........................................................................ 90 3.13. Phn tch SMART...................................................................... 92 3.14. Phn tch NBBLK ...................................................................... 93 3.15. Quan st h thng....................................................................... 94 3.16. Xc nh nhiu lon h thng .................................................. 100 3.17. Trnh 10 phn thng gp ca t duy h thng.................. 105 Chng 4: Cc h thng sn xut ......................................................... 117 4.1. Gii thiu chung......................................................................... 117 182

4.2. Nhng c tnh ca cc h sn xut........................................... 118 4.3. Nguyn l hin ti trong phn tch din th h thng sn xut.. 124 4.4. Phn loi ti nguyn ca cc h sn xut ................................... 125 4.5. Nghin cu trng hp 1 - h thng chn th gia sc c sng khu vc sa van kh hn Ninh Thun................................................. 126 4.6. Nghin cu trng hp 2 - h thng nui thy sn mn l Ngha Hng, Nam nh (nm 2002) ........................................................... 132 4.7. Nghin cu trng hp 3 - Tnh tri ca h thng ti nguyn mi trng v qun l h thng trong phng tr su hi ......................... 143 4.8. Nghin cu trng hp 4 - ng dng Tip cn H thng xc lp cc tiu ch mi trng cho im ti nh c bn vng.............. 152 4.9. Nghin cu trng hp 5 - Tnh g gh ca h thng v ng dng ........................................................................................................... 163 Kt lun chung ...................................................................................... 168 Ti liu tham kho................................................................................. 170 Ph lc thut ng h thng ................................................................... 173

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