Tim Noi Tru An Web Edition

Tm Kim Ni Tr N
nh hng ca
binikhhu
ln tnh trng di c v mt ch
ca con ngi
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng quc gia s phi gnh chu tc ng nng n nht ca bin i kh hu (BKH), c bit l khu
vc ng bng sng Cu Long, ni c d bo c gn 50% din tch canh tc v hng triu c dn s b nh hng nghim
trng do mt ni , mt k sinh nhai hoc phi di c. Vit Nam ban hnh Chng trnh Mc tiu Quc gia ng ph vi BKH
nhm thng nht ch o cc gii php ng ph ti Vit Nam trc mt v lu di. Nhng t duy mi v mt ch v di dn
do tc ng mi trng v BKH cn c xem nh l nhng dng chnh trong chnh sch v can thip gim thiu v ng ph
ca Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc.
Nhn thc c ngha ca vn mt ni v di dn, c bit i vi cc cng ng ngho do tc ng ca BKH, Trung tm
Con ngi v Thin nhin (PanNature) tin hnh bin dch v gii thiu vi bn c n phm Tm kim ni tr n: nh hng
ca bin i kh hu ln tnh trng di c v mt ch ca con ngi. Ti liu ny kt qu nghin cu mi do T chc CARE Quc t
ch tr thc hin trn ton cu, cung cp nhng thng tin, hiu bit thc t cho cng chng v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch
v mt kha cnh quan trng ca tc ng BKH ln i sng con ngi.
Bn ting Vit ca n phm ny c thc hin trong khun kh cc hot ng ca d n Tng cng nng lc gim st chnh
sch v php lut mi trng Vit Nam, 2008-2010do Qu Ford (Hoa K) ti tr. Mi kin ng gp cho n phm ting Vit
xin gi v a ch email: contact@nature.org.vn.
Li gii thiu
TRUNG TM CON NGI V THIN NHIN
S 3, Ngch 55, Ng 61, Trn Duy Hng, H Ni
Hm th 612, Bu in H Ni
t: (04) 3556-4001 * Fax: (04) 3556-8941
Website: www.nature.org.vn
nh hng ca
binikhhu
ln tnh trng di c v mt ch
ca con ngi
Tm Kim Ni Tr N
ll
Bo co ny c thc hin bi cc tc gi: Koko Warner,
Vin Mi trng v An ninh Con ngi thuc i hc Lin
Hip Quc; Charles Ehrhart, T chc CARE Quc t; Alex de
Sherbinin, Susana Adamo v Tricia Chai-Onn, Trung tm
Mng li Quc t Thng tin Khoa hc Tri t thuc i hc
Columbia.
Bn quyn
05/2009
Bo co v cc hnh nh vi phn gii cao c th ti ti:
http://www.careclimatechange.org hoc
http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html.
Cc kin trong bo co l ca tc gi, khng nht thit
phn nh quan im ca i hc Lin Hip Quc, T chc
CARE Quc t, i hc Columbia, Cao y Lin Hip Quc v
Ngi T nn (UNHCR) v Ngn hng Th gii. Cc cu hi v
kin ng gp cho bo co xin gi trc tip n cc tc
gi chnh: Koko Warner (warner@ehs.unu.edu), Charles Eh-
rhart (ehrhart@careclimatechange.org), Alex de Sherbinin
(adesherbinin@ciesin.columbia.edu) v Susana Adamo (sad-
amo@ciesin.columbia.edu). Cc cu hi v truyn thng xin
gi v media@careclimatechange.org v gi ti b Sandra
Bulling, cn b truyn thng ca T chc Care Luxemburg
(bulling@care.de).
Tm kim ni tr n: nh hng ca bin i kh hu ln tnh
trng di c v mt ch ca con ngi 2008, T chc CARE
Quc t.
nh ba:
CARE Kenya/Frederick Courbet, 2007

Ph n v tr em mt nh do l lt xy ra ngay sau mt cn
hn hn ti ng Bc Kenya.
Bo co ny v cc hot ng lin quan c thc hin
nhm bo v nhng ngi di c v l do mi trng thng
qua s h tr tch cc t Cao y Lin Hip Quc v Ngi T
nn (UNHCR), Qu ca Gia nh Cogan, Ban Pht trin X hi
v Nhm nghin cu Kha cnh X hi ca Bin i Kh hu
thuc Ngn hng Th gii.
Chng ti xin ghi nhn ng gp kinh nghim ca cc
nghin cu vin thc a trong d n Thay i Mi trng
v Kch bn Di c bt buc (EACH-FOR) i vi bo co ny.
Chng ti cng xin cm n cc tc gi sau y v ng gp
ca h cho bo co: Stefan Alscher (i hc Bielefeld) chu
trch nhim nghin cu thc a ti Mexico v Trung M;
Tamer Aff (UNU-EHS) vi cng vic thc a ti Ai Cp v
Niger; Olivia Dun (UNU-EHS) vi nghin cu ti Chu th
sng M Kng; Francois Gemenne (CEDEM, i hc Lige)
vi nghin cu li Tuvalu, Trung v Trung Quc; Kees van
der Geest (AMIDSt, i hc Amsterdam) vi kho st thc
a ti Ghana; Jill Jger (SERI), gim c khoa hc ca d n
EACH-FOR ng thi l tc gi ca Bo co Tng hp EACH-
FOR; v Alice Poncelet (CEDEM, i hc Lige) vi cng vic
thc a ti Bangladesh.
Chng ti cng mun gi li cm n ti Andrs Gonzlez,
ngi thit k cc bn (CIESIN, i hc Columbia), Noel
Lumbama, ngi thit k bo co (Cng ty Noel Creative
Media Ltd.) v Elisabeth Sydor, ngi ph trch bin tp bn
tho (CIESIN, i hc Columbia).
Chng ti mun cm n tt c nhng ngi c v ng
gp cc kin qu bu cho ti liu ny: Carina A. Bachofen
(Ban Pht trin X hi, Ngn hng Th gii), Paul Block (Vin
Nghin cu Quc t v Kh hu v X hi, i hc Columbia),
Janos Bogardi (UNU-EHS), Philippe Boncour (IOM), Edwin
Castellanos (i hc Thung lng Guatemala), Christina
Chan (CARE M), Jean-Francois Duriuex (UNHCR), Robert
Ford (Trung tm o to GIS v Vin Thm, i hc Quc
gia Rwanda), Alessandra Giannini (Vin Nghin cu Quc t
v Kh hu v X hi, i hc Columbia), Madeleen Helmer
(Trung tm Kh hu Ch thp ), Sabine Henry (Khoa a l,
i hc Notre-Dame de la Paix), Malanding Jaiteh (CIESIN, i
hc Columbia), Andrew Jones (CARE M), Poul Eric Lauridsen
(CARE Quc t), Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog (Hi ng
Ngi T nn Na Uy), Alexander Lotsch (WDR, Ngn hng
Th gii), Alex Guerra Noriega (i hc Oxford, Anh), David
Rain (i hc George Washington, M), Marc Stal (UNU-EHS),
Yoichiro Tsuchida (UNHCR) v Gregory Yetman (CIESIN, i
hc Columbia).
Chng ti xin ghi nhn v cm n nhng c nhn sau y
gip pht trin bo co v cc khi nim: Christoph Bals
(Germanwatch), Hans-Georg Bohle (i hc Bonn), Joern
Birkmann (UNU-EHS), Tanja Dedovich (IOM), Tom Downing (SEI
Oxford), Han Entzinger (i hc Erasmus), Mohammed Hamza
(SEI Oxford), Peter Hoeppe (Cng ty Ti Bo him Munich),
Saleem Huq (IIED), Sven Harmeling (Germanwatch), Claudia
Juech (Qu Rockefeller), Jan Kowalski (Oxfam c), Jenty
Kirsch-Wood (OCHA), Frank Laczko (IOM), Michelle Leighton
(i hc San Francisco), Thomas Loster (Qu Re Munich),
Heather McGray (WRI), Robin Mearns Noble (Ngn hng Th
gii), Jette Michelsen (IASC), Alina Narusova (IOM), Youssef
Nassef (UNFCCC), Tony Oliver-Smith (i hc Florida), Ursula
Oswald Spring (UNAM), Fabrice Renaud (UNU-EHS), Xiaomeng
Shen (UNU-EHS), Andras Vag (ATLAS Innoglobe), Richard
Weaver (TearFund), Roger Zetter (Trung tm Nghin cu T nn,
i hc Oxford) v ng nghip ti cc trng i hc, cc t
chc quc t, t chc x hi dn s v khu vc cng, cng nh
nhng phn hi mang tnh xy dng t UNFCCC v cc c quan
thuc UN cng cc t chc lin chnh ph.
Chng ti cng xin c ghi nhn nhng h tr t Sandra
Bulling (CARE c), Susanne Ludwig (CARE c), Johanna
Mitscherlich (CARE c), Sabine Wilke (CARE c), Michael
Zissener (UNU-EHS) v cc ng nghip CARE an Mch v
CARE Quc t. Chng ti xin cm n s hp tc cht ch ca
thnh ph Bonn (Maria Hohn-Berghorn) v nhng ng gp
xy dng ca cc i tc v NGO a phng.
Li cm n
Tm tt
Khuyn ngh chnh sch
1. Gii thiu
Di dn v s bin i mi trng ton cu
T duy mi v ng gp ca bo co
2. Thch nghi hay tht bi trong thch nghi
Cc tc nhn gy nh hng
Xc nh vn
3. Bin i kh hu v tnh trng di c ca con ngi
3.1 Chu : Bng tan v cc h thng ti tiu chnh trong nng nghip
3.2 Mexico v Trung M: Di c ng ph vi hn hn v cc thm ha t nhin
3.3 Khu vc Sahel: Sc p ln sinh k nng thn v tnh trng di c ang tng dn
3.4 ng bng sng Hng: Di c tm thi nh mt chin lc sinh tn
3.5 ng bng sng M Kng: Sng chung vi l v ti nh c
3.6 ng bng sng Nile: Mc kt gia sa mc ha v nc bin dng
3.7 Tuvalu v qun o Maldive: Nc bin dng v cc quc o nh ang pht trin
4. Kt lun
Ch thch
Ph lc k thut: D liu v phng php
Mc lc
Bn 1: Sng bng v cc sng chnh Himalaya
Bn 2: Lng nc b mt v mt dn s
Trung M/Mexico
Bn 3: Lng nc b mt v mt dn s
Ty Phi/Sahel
Bn 4: Mc nc bin dng v mt dn s
ng bng sng Hng
ng bng sng M Kng
ng bng sng Nile
Bn 7: Mc nc bin dng v Tuvalu
Bn 8: Mc nc bin dng v qun o Maldive
Danh mc cc bn
iv
v
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
4-5
6-7
8-9
12-13
14-15
16-17
18-19
21
22
25
lv
nh hng ca bin i kh hu v ang gy ra tnh trng di c
v mt ch ca loi ngi. Mc d cha c con s d bo chnh
xc v lng ngi phi di c trong vng na th k ti, song phm
vi v mc ca tnh trng ny c th s ln cha tng c. Ngi
dn cc quc gia v quc o km pht trin nht s b nh hng
u tin v nng n hn c.
Hu qu ca tnh trng di dn v mt ch xt trn hu ht mi
kha cnh ca pht trin v an ninh con ngi c th mang tnh hy
hoi nghim trng. Thm ch c th gy nh hng khng nh n
s n nh chnh tr.
Hu ht nhng ngi buc phi di c u tm kim ni tr n ngay
trn t nc mnh, trong khi mt s khc s tm kim ni nng
nu tt hn bn ngoi bin gii. C th ngn chn mt s trng
hp mt ch v di c bng cch trin khai cc bin php thch
nghi. Tuy nhin, cc nc ngho khng c trang b y
h tr thch nghi trn din rng. Kt qu l cc cng ng chu nh
hng ca bin i kh hu nh b nht trong vng xoy trn c
ca s hy hoi sinh thi m di y, cc mng li an sinh x
hi s sp khi nhng cng thng v bo lc gia tng. Trong kch
bn xu nht nhng hon ton c th xy ra ny, cc cng ng ln
s buc phi la chn di c nh mt cch thc tn ti.
Tnh trng di c v mt ch lin quan n kh hu ch c th gii
quyt thnh cng khi n c nhn nhn nh mt tin trnh mang
tnh ton cu ch khng ch l s khng hong a phng. Nguyn
tc trch nhim chung song cng c s khc bit c theo hng
gim ti thiu s mt ch v c theo hng h tr cc trng hp
bt buc phi di c s l nn tng cho m phn v chnh sch
v nhng kt qu tip sau . Trch nhim h tr v bo v nhng
cng ng b mt ch khng th ch t ln vai nhng quc gia
b nh hng.
Bn cht v mc ch ca bo co
Bo co ny tm hiu cch thc m nhng c sc v sc p mi
trng, c bit l nhng bin c lin quan n bin i kh hu, c
th y con ngi ti ch phi ri b nh ca tm kim nhng
cnh ng xanh hn hoc ch tn ti. c nhng quyt nh
sng sut, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v cc nh hot ng x
hi cn hiu r hn mi lin h gia s thay i mi trng v tnh
trng mt ch , di c. Bo co ny do vy xin a ra:
bng chng thc t t cuc iu tra xuyn lc a u tin v s
thay i mi trng v di c;
cc bn gc minh ha cch thc v a im m nh hng
ca bin i kh hu c th dn n tnh trng mt ch v di
c nghim trng;
cc khuyn ngh chnh sch phn nh t duy tp th ca cc c
quan a ngnh v cc vin nghin cu, cng nh cc t chc
phi chnh ph lm vic trc tip vi nhng cng ng b thit
thi nht trn th gii.
Cc quyt nh v chnh sch hin nay s xc nh
xem di c c tr thnh mt la chn trong s cc
phng n thch nghi hay khng, hay ch l mt
vn sinh tn ny sinh do s tht bi tp th
ca cng ng quc t trong vic tm ra mt gii
php tt hn.
Nhng pht hin chnh
Bin i kh hu v ang dn ti tnh trng mt ch v di
c. Mc d kinh t v chnh tr l nhng nhn t chnh dn n
tnh trng mt ch v di c nh hin nay, song bin i kh
hu v ang c nhng nh hng r rt.
S sp ca cc dng sinh k ph thuc vo h sinh thi c l
s cn l mt nhn t chnh ca tnh trng di c di hn trong
vng hai n ba thp k ti. Bin i kh hu s cng lm tnh
hnh xu i tr phi nhng cng ng b thit thi, c bit l
cc nhm ngho nht, c h tr to dng sinh k thch
nghi vi bin i kh hu.
Cc thm ha t nhin s tip tc l nhn t ch yu dn n
tnh trng mt ch v di c tm thi. Khi bin i kh hu lm
tng tn sut v cng ca cc thm ha t nhin nh lc
xoy, l lt v hn hn, s lng ngi b mt ch tm thi s
tng ln. iu ny c bit ng vi cc quc gia tht bi trong
vic u t vo chin lc gim thiu nguy c thin tai v vi
cc cng ng m kh nng ng ph vi thm ha thin nhin
c hn.
Di c theo ma ng vai tr quan trng i vi nhiu gia
nh, nh mt cch chng li s thay i ca mi trng. iu
ny dng nh ang ngy cng tr nn ph bin hn, khi
ngi dn nng thn phi di c t ni ny sang ni khc tm
kim nhng h sinh thi ph hp c th h tr sinh k.
Bng tan s nh hng ln ti cc h thng nng nghip chu
. Khi lng nc tch tr cc dng sng bng gim xung,
nguy c l lt ngn hn s tng ln. iu ny s khin lu lng
nc gim v trung hn v di hn. C hai h qu ny ca hin
tng bng tan u e da sn xut lng thc mt s vng
c mt dn c cao nht th gii.
Nc bin dng s lm trm trng thm tnh trng xm mn,
ngp lt, sng thn, xi mn v cc thm ha khc. Nguy c
ny c bit nghim trng vi nhng cng ng sng trn o.
Thc t chng t nh hng ca bin i kh hu s ph hy
sinh k v nn nng nghip thng mi nhiu hn o nh.
Ti nhng vng ng bng ng c dn c nh ng bng
sng Hng, sng M Kng v sng Nile, nc bin dng cao 1m
c th nh hng ti 23,5 triu ngi v lm gim din tch t
nng nghip chnh hin nay mc t nht l 1,5 triu ha. Nc
bin dng cao 2m s nh hng thm ti 10,8 triu ngi v
hy hoi thm t nht 969.000 ha t nng nghip.
Nhiu ngi s khng th di chuyn xa trnh nhng nh
hng tiu cc ca bin i kh hu, tr khi h nhn c h
tr. di c cn c nhiu ngun lc (bao gm ti chnh, vn x
hi v vn chnh tr), iu kin m nhng cng ng thit thi
nht thng khng c. Cc nghin cu tnh hung in hnh
cho thy nhng ngi di c v l do mi trng c th li tm
n nhng ni c iu kin sng bp bnh y nh nhng vng
t m h buc phi ri i.
tm tt
v
Khuyn ngh chnh sch
Mt t duy mi v mt cch tip cn thc t l rt cn thit i
ph vi nhng nguy c m tnh trng di c do bin i kh hu gy
ra i vi an ninh con ngi. Trong , nhng nguyn tc v nhng
cam kt hnh ng sau y cn c thc hin bi cc bn lin
quan tt c cc cp:
Trnh bin i kh hu nguy him
Gim pht thi kh nh knh n mc an ton.
Cho n thng 12 nm 2009, thi im din ra Hi ngh gia cc
bn lin quan trong Hip nh Khung v Bin i Kh hu Lin Hip
Quc (UNFCCC), cng ng quc t s phi ng thun v mt gii
php cho tng lai. Nu khng c s ng thun no vo thi im
y, chng ta gn nh chc chn s b qua mi kch bn v mc
pht thi an ton v s y th h tng lai vo mt th gii nguy
him hn, ni m tnh trng di c v mt ch do bin i kh hu
trn din rng thc s l khng th trnh khi.
Tp trung vo vn an ninh con ngi
Bo v chn gi tr v quyn c bn ca nhng ngi b mt ch do
bin i kh hu.
Tnh trng mt ch v di c lin quan n kh hu nn c gii quyt
trc ht nh mt vn an ninh con ngi. Khng nn nhng
cnh bo mang tnh duy cm chm ngi cho nhng chnh sch tiu cc
ch nhm ngn cn lung di c ca nhng ngi t nn mi trngm
khng thc s quan tm n cht lng cuc sng ca h.
u t tng kh nng thch nghi
Tng cng kh nng thch nghi ca con ngi trc nh hng ca
bin i kh hu gim s ngi buc phi di c.
S sp ca cc dng sinh k ph thuc vo ngun ti nguyn
thin nhin c l s cn l nguyn do chnh ca tnh trng di c di
hn trong vng hai n ba thp k ti. Bin i kh hu s cng lm
tnh hnh xu i tr phi nhng cng ng b thit thi, c bit l
nhng nhm ngho nht, c h tr to lp sinh k thch nghi
vi bin i kh hu. Vic ny s i hi u t c bn vo:
cc phng thc thch nghi ti ch nh h thng ti tiu nc
thng minh, tp qun canh tc t/khng cy xi, a dng ha
ngun thu nhp v qun l ri ro;
trao quyn cho ph n v cc nhm x hi thit thi khc
gip h vt qua nhng ro cn khc m h phi i mt trong
qu trnh thch nghi;
cc k hoch thch nghi ton din, minh bch v c trch nhim vi
s tham gia c hiu qu ca nhng cng ng c bit thit thi.
u tin nhng cng ng d b tn thng nht th gii
Thit lp nhng c ch v cam kt cht ch m bo ngn sch h
tr thch nghi n c vi ngi cn n nht.
Cc tho lun trong Cng c Khung v Bin i Kh hu ca Lin
Hip Quc (UNFCCC) hin nay ang tp trung vo cch thc to
ra ngun ngn sch h tr thch nghi cc nc ang pht
trin v phng thc qun l cc ngun ngn sch ny. y l vn
quan trng. Tuy nhin, phng thc lun chuyn ngun qu
n n c vi nhng ngi cn nht cng l vic quan trng
khng km. Chnh v th xy dng nhng tiu chun khch quan
nh gi mc tn thng trc nhng nh hng tiu cc
ca bin i kh hu, bao gm c nguy c mt ch ca con ngi,
a ra hng dn cho h tr u tin l rt cn thit.
Lng ghp di c vo cc chin lc thch nghi
Tha nhn v thc y vai tr khng th ph nhn ca di c trong cc
chin lc thch nghi ca c nhn, h gia nh v quc gia.
Hng thin nin k qua, con ngi tin hnh di c c ngn hn
v di hn nh mt cch ng ph mang tnh thch nghi vi nhng
sc p t kh hu. Ngy nay, hng triu c nhn v gia nh cng
ang tri qua tnh trng ny di nhiu hnh thc khc nhau. S di
chuyn ca loi ngi c vnh vin v tm thi, c bn trong bin
gii v xuyn bin gii phi c tnh n trong cc k hoch
thch nghi ca mi quc gia v ton th gii. Vic ny c th c
thc hin bng nhiu cch, nhiu cp v c th bao gm cc bin
php nh:
to iu kin thun li v tng cng li ch ca cc khon chi
ph h tr di c;
ti nh c hp php cho nhng cng ng sng ti nhng
vng duyn hi thp v cc quc o nh.
1
Vic ti nh c mt cch bn vng v mi trng, x hi v kinh
t theo ng cc tiu chun v quyn con ngi (nu r trong Cc
Nguyn tc Hng dn v Di dn Trong nc v cc ti liu khc)
c th i hi chi ph ln; nhng tha thun quc t cn m bo
nhng tiu chun ny v p ng cc nhu cu khc lin quan.
C ch hin ti cho qu h tr thch nghi, vn da trn s ng
gp t nguyn, bc l nhng tht bi khi vn hnh. Do vy,
cc tha thun tng lai trong khun kh Cng c Khung v
Bin i Kh hu ca Lin Hip Quc phi thit lp nhng cam
kt rng buc i vi cc quc gia c mc pht thi cao ko di.
Cc ngun ngn sch ny phi l cc ngun mi b sung vo
nhng ngun cam kt hin c nh vn ODA (Vn H tr Pht
trin Chnh thc).
Lp y l hng trong chin lc bo v
Lng ghp bin i kh hu vo trong cc khung chng trnh i ph
vi tnh trng mt ch v di c tm quc gia v quc t hin c.
Nhng thch thc c bit do bin i kh hu em li phi c
a vo trong cc quy chun v cc cng c php lut ng ph vi
tnh trng mt ch v di c. Nhng kh khn c bit nghim
trng gm c:
cc quc gia bin mt v nhng x s khng th sinh tn. Khng
ging nhng ngi b mt ch do xung t hoc khng b, v
h vn c hy vng tr li qu hng mt ngy no , nhng
ngi b mt ch do nh hng lin tc v thng xuyn
ca bin i kh hu (nh thiu ma hoc nc bin dng) cn
c ti nh c vnh vin mt vng t khc.
iu kin sng b hy hoi khng th phc hi. Bin i kh hu
s dn ti nhng trng hp kh c th phn bit l di c t
nguyn hay di c bt buc. Hin nay, nhng ngi di c do iu
kin sng dn xu i c th c xp vo nhm di c t nguyn
v l do kinh t, v do vy nhu cu c bo v c bit ca h
b ph nhn.
p ng mt cch hp l cc thch thc ny, nhng ngi c
trch nhim cn nhng hng dn r rng bo v quyn li cho
ngi di c do mi trng.
Tng cng ngun lc ca cc c quan nh nc v quc t bo v
quyn ca nhng ngi b mt ch do bin i kh hu.
Cc c quan bo v quyn li c bn ca dn di c v ngi b mt
ch hin ang thiu ngn sch v b dn tri qu mc. Bin i
kh hu s cng gy thm sc p, khin cho cc hot ng bo
v tr nn kh khn hn. Do , cng ng quc t phi bt u
nhng tho lun nghim tc v cch thc thc hin bn phn ca
mnh trong vic bo v ngi di c v mt ch do s thay i
mnh m ca mi trng.
vl
l
1. Gii thiu
Cho ti gn y, cc nghin cu v cc vng m phn v bin i kh
hu hu nh v ang ch tp trung vo yu cu gim pht thi kh
nh knh. Tuy nhin, r rng l hin nay cc n lc nhm gim pht thi
tr nn qu nh b v chm tr.
2
Do , nhng thch thc v quan
im chnh tr phc tp ca chin lc thch nghi v gim nh ang
gp nhau ti trung tm ca cc cuc tranh lun v chnh sch.
iu cp thit i vi cng ng quc t hin nay l phi y nhanh
tin trnh tm kim mt chin lc thch nghi hiu qu. Mt trong
nhng nhim v quan trng nht l nng cao hiu bit v nh
hng ca mi trng n tnh trng di c ca con ngi. Ti bt
k ni no, di c cng c th l mt chin lc thch nghi. Nhng di
c cng bc v tnh trng mt ch cng c th l nhng ch s
cho thy nng lc thch nghi yu km mt cch ng tic.
Di c v s bin i mi trng ton cu
Th gii ca chng ta trc y tng tri qua nhng bin i ln v
kh hu. iu khc bit ln ny l loi ngi ang gp phn trong
s thay i y v bin i kh hu ang tc ng vo cc h sinh
thi m chnh n ang ph thuc.
Tnh trng mt ch v di c do mi trng c kh nng tr thnh
mt hin tng xa nay cha tng c, xt v c phm vi v mc
. Nhng nh hng ca n ln nn kinh t ton cu, ln s pht
trin quc t v ngn sch quc gia c th tc ng nghim trng
ti hu ht mi kha cnh ca an ninh, sc khe tinh thn ca con
ngi, cng nh an ninh quc gia v n nh chnh tr.
Di c, d l vnh vin hay tm thi, trong nc hay quc t, vn lun
l mt chin lc thch nghi kh thi m con ngi dng ng ph
vi nhng bin ng ca mi trng. Lch s t thi k s khai nht
c nh du bng s di c v thay i ch ca con ngi t
vng kh hu ny sang vng kh hu khc nhm tm kim nhng mi
trng c th cung cp ngun sng v to iu kin cho con ngi
c c cuc sng tt p hn. Mt s ln sng di c v thay i ch
c lin quan n s sp ca nn vn ha khi sinh cnh quen
thuc khng cn cung cp cho con ngi mt mi trng sng an
ton v thun li vi nhng dng sinh k ph hp tn ti.
Ngy nay, bin ng ca mi trng, trong c bin i kh hu,
mang li mt nguy c mi i vi an ninh con ngi v mt bi
cnh mi cho s di c ca con ngi.
c tnh n nm 2050, khi dn s th gii t n nh, s c
khong 9 t ngi sng trn Tri t. Phn ln s sng cc khu
th vi nhng du chn mi trng tan hoang. Nhiu thnh ph ln
nm trong cc khu vc d b nh hng ca hin tng nc bin
dng. Bin i kh hu s din ra c khu vc nng thn v thnh
th vi nhng thin tai din ra ngy cng nng n v thng xuyn
hn. L, bo ln, hn hn, hoc nhng bin i v kh hu xy ra t
t nhng v cng nghim trng trong khu vc s gy sc p ln ln
cc h thng sinh k. Nhng sc p ny cng vi v s cc nhn t
khc s gp phn vo tnh trng di c v mt ch ca con ngi.
Trong nhng thp k ti y, bin i kh hu s khin hoc buc
hng triu ngi phi ri b nh ca tm kim s an ton v
ngun sinh k gip h tn ti. Mc d con s chnh xc ngi di c
v mt ch i khi c th vt qu kh nng tnh ton ca khoa
hc, th s ngi phi di chuyn c l s cn dao ng v vt qu
mi bin c tng t tng xy ra trong lch s.
Hu ht mi ngi s tm kim ni tr n ngay trn t nc mnh
trong khi mt s khc s tm kim c hi tt hn bn ngoi bin
gii. Mt s trng hp b mt ch v di c c th c ngn chn
bng cc bin php thch nghi, bao gm ci tin nng sut nng
nghip v qun l nc tng th. Tuy nhin, cc nc ngho hn s
khng c trang b h tr thch nghi trn din rng; v di c
s tr thnh la chn duy nht ca nhiu ngi dn pha Nam bn
cu. Nhng ng ph ca chng ta vi bin i kh hu ngy hm
nay s gip xc nh liu di c c tr thnh mt la chn trong s
cc phng n thch nghi hay khng, hay ch l mt vn sinh tn
ny sinh do s tht bi tp th ca cng ng quc t khi khng
a ra c nhng la chn tt hn.
T duy mi v ng gp ca bo co
Mt t duy mi v nhng cch tip cn thit thc l rt cn thit
i ph vi nhng nguy c m bin ng mi trng, bao gm c
bin i kh hu, t ra i vi tnh trng di c v mt ch . Di c
l mt cch ng ph quan trng v ang ngy cng gia tng trc
bin i kh hu, tuy nhin cc nghin cu v bin i kh hu cng
nh v s di c ca loi ngi u cha phn nh y la chn
thch nghi ny, v tc ng ca n hoc cc gii php thay th v
chnh sch. Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cn c cc thng tin, cc
d liu thc tin v phn tch tt hn v c nhng nguy c v cc
gii php tim nng. Bo co ny c to ra nhm p ng nhu
cu v gip lp y khong trng bng cch cung cp:
bng chng thc nghim t mt cuc iu tra xuyn lc a u
tin v s thay i mi trng v di c;
3
cc bn gc v nh hng ca bin i kh hu v s phn b
dn c, m t mt s qu trnh ch yu lin quan n bin i
kh hu v mt s h sinh thi - nhn vn, ni nhng thay i
ny c th dn ti tnh trng di c v mt ch . Bng cch a
ra mt s nghin cu tnh hung gn y cc quc gia, bo
co nhn vo xu hng hin nay ca bin i kh hu v di c
nh hin tng bng tan i vi cc h thng sng chnh
chu , xu hng kh ha Trung M v Ty Phi, lt li v nc
bin dng cc chu th ln trn th gii cng nh cc quc
o ang pht trin nm v tr thp (v chi tit, xin xem thm
Ph lc k thut: D liu v phng php);
cc khuyn ngh chnh sch phn nh t duy tp th ca cc c
quan a ngnh v vin nghin cu chnh, cng nh cc t chc
phi chnh ph lm vic trc tip vi nhng cng ng b thit
thi nht trn th gii.
Gii hn ca bo co
Bo co ny khng t mc tiu a ra nhng c tnh v s ngi
c th di c hoc buc phi di c ng ph vi cc tc nhn mi
trng, bao gm c bin i kh hu. Bo co cng khng a ra
nhng im n c th cho ngi di c trong tng lai. Bo co
cng khng c nh ch ra nhng mi quan h nhn qu gia
bin i kh hu v tnh trng di c hay mt ch , m ch da trn
nhng hiu bit khoa hc hin ti v cc tin trnh mi trng v
nh hng ca nhng tin trnh ny n s di c ca con ngi.
Cc tc gi hy vng rng bo co ny s hu ch cho cc cuc tho
lun v khu vc hin ang chu sc p ca tnh trng di c v mt
ch , cng nh nhng khu vc m tnh trng ny c th trm
trng thm trong tng lai do nh hng ca cc hin tng nh
bng tan, xu th kh ha, l lt v nc bin dng. Bo co cng
mong mun trnh by nhng phng n pht trin kh thi trong
tng lai, c kh nng cung cp cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch
mt nn tng h tp trung tho lun v vai tr ca di c trong
thch nghi.
2
2. Thch nghi hay tht bi trong thch nghi?
Cc tc nhn gy nh hng
Ngy nay, s thay i mi trng bao gm c bin i kh hu
gp phn vo vic y mnh tnh trng di c ca con ngi, mt
hin tng vn gn b cht ch vi cc qu trnh mi trng v x
hi lin quan khc.
4
Cc c th ca h thng x hi, bao gm cc
mng li x hi, ang ng vai tr iu ha nhng nh hng
ca thay i mi trng i vi quyt nh di c hay li ca ngi
dn.
5
Di dn c th l mt phn ng vi iu kin kinh t v mi
trng, v d, mt ngi nng dn c th la chn di chuyn ti ni
khc v ma mng tht thu v nguy c sinh k khng m bo cuc
sng. Di dn cng c th lm trm trng thm cc vn v kinh t
v mi trng nhng ni tip nhn lung di c nh cc khu vc
thnh th, vn lun thu ht nhng ngi tm kim mt cuc sng
tt p hn. T l di c cao s dn n nhiu vn v mt dn
s, mi trng v v sinh ti nhng khu dn c ngho.
Cc nghin cu cng ch ra rng qu
trnh th ha l mt tc nhn dn n
s nng ln trong khu vc (nng cc
b), mt nhn t c th lm trm trng
thm xu th kh ha, bn cnh cc vn
khc.
6

Mt s thnh ph nh Dhaka, Buenos
Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Thng Hi, Thin
Tn, Alexandria, Cairo, Mumbai, Kolkata,
Jakarta, Tokyo, Osaka-Kobe, Lagos, Bang-
kok, New York v Los Angeles u nm
nhng khu vc chu nh hng khi mc
nc bin dng. Mc nc bin dng c
th y mnh tnh trng ti nh c, di
dn bt buc v cc hnh thc di c khc
ca con ngi.
7

Thay i mi trng c nh hng a
tng i vi cc nhn t di dn khc.
8
V
d, thoi ha t Niger lm hao mn
kh nng phc hi ca nng dn trc
hn hn lin tip.
9
Thi tit tht thng,
mc nc bin dng cao v cc nh
hng khc ca bin i kh hu s lm tng c sc p di dn ln
hy hoi mi trng.
10

Cc nghin cu l thuyt v thc tin v di c do mi trng cho
thy mt iu chc chn rng bin i mi trng l mt trong s
v vn nhn t nh hng.
Bin i kh hu & di c: xc nh vn
Cc thut ng v khi nim nh: di dn do bin i mi trng hay
bin i kh hu, di dn lin quan ti mi trng hay di dn cng
bc, t nn sinh thi hay t nn mi trng v ngi t nn do bin
i kh hu c s dng ngy cng nhiu m khng c mt s
thng nht no cho mt nh ngha xc ng.
16
L do chnh ca
vic thiu nhng nh ngha v di c mt phn bi s thay i v
suy thoi ca mi trng lin quan n hai vn : th nht l thch
thc ca vic tch ri cc tc nhn mi
trng ra khi cc tc nhn khc dn
n di dn; th hai l nh hng ca
chnh ph trong vic vic nh ngha
phm vi ca di dn lin quan n mi
trng.
17

Bo co ny da trn mt nh ngha
do T chc Di c Th gii (IOM) a ra
cho ngi di c do mi trng, bao
gm nhng ngi buc phi di c mt
phn l do bin i kh hu: Ngi di
c do mi trng l nhng ngi hoc
nhm ngi, v nguyn do chnh ng
xut pht t nhng thay i t ngt
hoc c tin trnh ca mi trng nh
hng xu n cuc sng hoc ti iu
kin sng ca h, buc h hoc khin
h phi la chn ri khi ni thng
tr ca mnh tm thi hoc vnh vin
ti vng khc, trn t nc mnh hoc
sang mt nc khc.
18
Bao nhiu ngi s buc phi ri b qu
hng do thay i mi trng?
Cc c tnh v s ngi di c hin ti v
d on v con s ny trong tng lai hin
cn khc nhau v gy nhiu tranh ci trong
khong t 25 ti 50 triu ngi vo nm
2010
11
cho ti gn 700 triu vo nm 2050.
12

IOM a ra con s khong gia, vi c
tnh chng 200 triu ngi s di c do mi
trng vo nm 2050.
13
Bt ng u tin
lin quan n vic phn loi ngi di c do
cc tc nhn mi trng trong c bin
i kh hu. Mt s t chc tnh n ngi
t nn mi trng trong khi mt s t chc
khc, da vo quan im vng chc ca Cao
y Lin hip quc v Ngi T nn (UNHCR),
nhn mnh rng t ngi t nn c mt
ngha php l ring trong Cng c Geneva
1951 lin quan n Quy ch Ngi t nn.
14

Cc thut ng nh ngi di c mi trng
v ngi b thc y di c do mi trng
do vy c a ra vi nhiu cch hiu khc
nhau.
15

Nh cu nn cho nhng ngi b mt ch ti
nc Cng ha Dn ch Cng-g.
3
3. Bin i kh hu v tnh trng
di c ca con ngi
Phn ny tm hiu nhng ng lc khu vc i vi qu trnh bin
i kh hu v s di c ca con ngi trn bi cnh bng tan, xu
hng kh ha, l lt v nc bin dng cao mt s im nng
trn th gii. ng gp quan trng ca bo co l vic kt hp
nhng bn c bit gi tr v cc xu hng lin quan n bin
i kh hu vi cc m hnh phn b dn c v nhng nghin cu
thc a v tc ng ca thay i mi trng ln tnh trng di c,
c bit l d n EACH-FOR.
Xut pht im ca bo co ny l gi thuyt cho rng thay i
mi trng nh hng n s di tr ca con ngi trc tip nht l
qua cc dng sinh k ph thuc vo h sinh thi, nh nng nghip,
chn nui v nh bt c. Gi thuyt ny c hnh thnh sau mt
chui iu tra thc a, ni cc nh nghin cu nh gi bn cht
ca nhng mi lin quan gia cc nhn t gy sc p mi trng
v vn di c. Trong d n EACH-FOR, phn ln nhng ngi di
c c phng vn u cho bit, nu mi trng c nh hng
n quyt nh di c, th cng phn ln l bi nhng thay i mi
trng khin cho c nhn h hoc gia nh h kim sng kh khn.
Nhng nhn xt ny dn n gi thuyt nh cp trn.
Trong phn ny, ngi c s i theo hnh trnh t nhng thp
nc chu , qua nhng dng sng bng vng Hymalaya ti
nhng vng t kh hn Trung M v Ty Phi (khu Sahel) v sau
ti ba vng chu th quan trng nht th gii (chu th sng
Hng, sng M Kng v sng Nile). Cuc hnh trnh s kt thc vi
cc quc o nm vng thp l Tuvalu v qun o Maldive. Mi
vng c m t trong phn ny u c bn km theo hp ch
gii nhng thng ip quan trng, k l nhng pht hin ti
thc a v mi lin h gia bin i kh hu, tnh trng di c v
mt ch .
4
Thnh th Khu vc c ti tiu Sng
dng ca mc nc bin (mt)
Lu vc Sng bng
0 - 500 500 - 1000 1000 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000
5
Thnh th Khu vc c ti tiu Sng
dng ca mc nc bin (mt)
Lu vc Sng bng
0 - 500 500 - 1000 1000 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000
3.1 Chu : Bng tan v cc h thng nng nghip c ti tiu
Cc sng bng trn ton cu ang tan mc bo ng.
19
Sng
bng l nhng khi nc tri chm ri, tch tr tuyt qua hng
thp k, thm ch l hng th k. Sng bng chy xui xung ni,
tan ra nhng on thp hn trong khi tuyt vn tip tc tch t
pha trn. Do c s ti tch t lin tc ny thng qua tch tr tuyt
vo ma ng, sng bng gi c nc trong sut nhng thng
ma ng v cung cp nc cho sng ngi trong sut nhng thng
ma h, gip iu ha cc dng chy.
20

Cc khi sng bng ang thu nh li to thm mt ln cung cp
nc ph tri cho cc vng h lu.
21
V kh nng tch tr ca sng
bng mt i, nguy c l lt s tng v trung hn. iu ny c th
nh hng n nn nng nghip nng thn v nhng khu vc
th nm trong vng chu th. Mt khi sng bng bin mt, n s
khng th cung cp nc trong nhng thng h na. S bin mt
ca sng bng ng ngha vi lng cung cp nc gim v dng
chy s khng n ng thi gian thch hp, ngha l, nc s n
khng n ng ma trng trt. Gii php thay th duy nht
tch tr nc theo ma l cc con p, song vic xy dng chng rt
tn km, cha k ti nhng tc ng nghim trng v mi trng
v x hi c th phi tr gi bng s mt ch ca hng ngn v
trong mt s t trng hp l hng triu ngi.
22

Dy Himalaya vn c bit n nh mt Thp Nc ca chu .
Trong cc dng sng c tip nc bi sng bng bt ngun t
dy Himalaya bao quanh Cao nguyn Ty Tng c c nhng dng
sng ln nht chy i khp ni trn th gii.
23
Cc dng sng ly
nc t dy ni ny chy qua nhng khu vc ng dn nht trn
th gii. Nm 2000, lu vc cc sng n, Hng, Brahmaputra, Ir-
rawaddy, Salween, M Kng, Dng T v Hong H cung cp nc
cho khong 1,4 t ngi, tc l gn mt phn t dn s th gii.
Cc dng sng bng Himalaya ang trong tnh trng tan chy.
24

Nhng cng ng h lu ph thuc vo dng sng bng ny c
bit d b tn thng bi h qu . Thung lng sng n cung cp
nc cho mt trong nhng h thng ti tiu ln nht th gii
(16,2 triu ha). Xp x 90% ma v Pakistan s dng h thng ti
tiu ny v ton b lng nc c ly t nhng con p chy dc
dng sng n. Cc con sng Hng, Dng T v Hong H cng
cung cp nc ti tiu cho nhiu vng rng ln vi din tch ln
lt l 17,9 triu ha, 5,4 triu ha v 2 triu ha.
H thng thy in dc theo sng M Kng v sng Dng T l
ngun cung cp in quan trng cho cc khu vc th. p Tam
Hip trn sng Dng T mi c hon thnh gn y, cng trnh
thy in ln nht th gii, s c kh nng cung cp 22.500 MW
khi tt c cc my pht i vo hot ng, gp hn 20 ln mt nh
my nhit in hoc in ht nhn c trung bnh. Tuy nhin, d n
ny cng khin 1-2 triu ngi b mt ch .
25
Cc d n khc cng
ang c trin khai tng cng nng lc cung cp thy in
ca dng M Kng trong nhng thp k ti. Kch bn sng bng
tan nhanh c l s khin hng trm p gi nc na s c xy
dng. Kt hp li, iu ny s gy ra nhng nh hng nghim
trng n cc khu vc ng bng h lu, ni vn thiu nc v
ph sa bi p.
26
S mt ch v ti nh c ca ngi dn ni y
s tr thnh vn ln hn, trn mt quy m rng.
Kt qu ca vic tng cng canh tc trn nhng vng t c
cp nc v pht trin in nng l c nhiu triu ngi hin ang
phi ph thuc mt cch gin tip vo lng thc v cc ngun
nng lng m nhng con sng ln ny cung cp. Nhng nhng
dng sng ny cng ng thi cung cp cc ngun sinh k trc
tip cho ngi lm nng nghip cn ti tiu, nh bt c quy m
nh, nui trng thy sn nhng i tng trung tm ca truyn
thng vn ha. V d, i vi nhng ngi theo o Hindu, dng
sng Hng rt thing ling v c h nhn cch ha gi l M
Hng (Gang Mt), biu tng ca ngun nc t ngi m mang
n s sng.
27
Nhng thay i ca cc dng sng nh vy cng cc
dng sinh k ph thuc vo chng c th gy ra nhng nh hng
su sc v kinh t, vn ha v nhn khu hc.
Nu s gim lu lng dng chy tr nn nguy cp, kh nng di c
khi nhng khu vc c cp nc c th tr nn nghim trng.
28

Mc d nhng a im di c ti s kh d on, c v nh hu ht
ngi b mt ch v di c s chuyn n nhng thnh ph nh
v trung bnh su trong lc a, cn mt s t hn s chuyn n
nhng thnh ph ln dc b bin hoc quanh nhnh chnh ca cc
h thng sng ngi (v d Delhi).
29
Dng dch chuyn t su trong
ni a ra khu vc duyn hi mt xu th ph bin Trung Quc
t nhng nm u ca thp nin 1980 s dn n hu qu c
nhiu ngi b tn thng bi hin tng nc bin dng hn v
c th c l lt ln xung t vng thng lu, nh mt h qu
tt yu khi sng bng b thu nh.
30
Tuy nhin, nhiu thnh ph
Nam khng kh nng tip nhn cc dng ngi di c ln. Ch
khi vic tr nc nhng vng ang c cp nc ca Chu
c thc hin hiu qu v hp l, tnh trng mt ch ca nng
dn mi c th c ngn chn.
31
Bn ny cho ta bit iu g?
Bn ny phc ha nhng khi sng bng (mu trng vin xanh) dy Himalaya v nhng con sng chnh bt ngun t . Nhng
con sng ny cung cp nc cho cc khu vc rng ln (mu xanh sm) v cc trung tm dn c chnh (mu ). Tuy nhin, nhng khi
sng bng nui dng chng ang b thu nh li. S gim dng chy s nh hng n nhng khu vc c cp nc, nhng kh nng
di c khi khu vc nng nghip vn l kh d on v cn ph thuc vo cc ng ph mang tnh thch nghi nh xy p v p dng cc
k thut ti tiu hiu qu. Nhng nh hng rng hn v an ninh lng thc vng ng dn ny c th l nghim trng. Khi thiu
s a dng ha cc phng thc thch nghi/gim nh, ngun nc s dn dn cn kit, cc dng sinh k nng nghip s khng cn bn
vng v con ngi buc phi di c. Nghch l l ch, cc bin php tr nc v ngn chn mt cuc khng hong nc lin quan
n hin tng tan bng li c th dn n tnh trng mt ch v ti nh c.
66
t nng nghip thch hp vi canh tc dng nc ma
ngho t yu cu tt rt tt
101 200 201 500 751 1,000 0 100 501 750
Tn sut lc xoy, 1980 - 2000
Thp Cao
S thay i v lng nc b mt (%)
dng (+) () m
50 - 25 24 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 50
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
Mt dn s, 2000 (ngi/km)
EACH-FOR
Vng d n
ng bin gii quc gia
0
Lng nc b mt trung bnh hng nm, 1960 - 1990 (mm)
7 6
t nng nghip thch hp vi canh tc dng nc ma
ngho t yu cu tt rt tt
101 200 201 500 751 1,000 0 100 501 750
Tn sut lc xoy, 1980 - 2000
Thp Cao
S thay i v lng nc b mt (%)
dng (+) () m
50 - 25 24 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 50
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
EACH-FOR
Vng d n
ng bin gii quc gia
0
Lng nc b mt trung bnh hng nm, 1960 - 1990 (mm)
Mexico v Trung M ang ng trc s e da ca nhiu him
ha lin quan n kh hu. Khu vc ny c bit n vi nhiu cn
lc xoy nghim trng, nh cn bo Mitch nm 1998 tn ph
Honduras v Nicaragua, cng nh cn bo Stan nm 2005 nh
hng n Mexico v Guatemala. Cn bo nhit i Noel nm 2007
gy ra lt nng bang Tabasco, khin 80% din tch b nhn
chm trong nc. Mt s khu vc duyn hi ca Mexico s phi i
mt vi hin tng nc bin dng, c bit l nhng vng thp
vng vnh Gulf Coast v vng Caribbe.
32
Tuy nhin, iu ng lu tm l dng nh khu vc ny s phi
chng kin s gim lin tc lng ma trong sut th k ny. Bn
pha bn tri cho thy lng nc b mt khu vc ny ang
gim t nht 5% v c th xung ti 50%, vi gim ngy cng
ln nhng vng bn kh hn v kh hn pha bc.
33
Vi a hnh
i ni, vic ti tiu qung canh ch kh thi vng ng bng
ven bin v ch vi nhng ch t kh gi. Hu ht t in nh s
ph thuc nhiu vo hnh thc canh tc dng nc ma. Tuy nhin,
k c nhng vng c cp nc rng ln nh hai bang Sonora
v Sinaloa, cc va la m ca Mexico, cng s b nh hng khi
mc nc h cha trung bnh gim xung. Hn hn ma h do cc
hin tng El Nio v La Nia c th dn n st gim mc nc
h cha nghim trng, nh tng thy trong qu kh.
34
Trong
trng hp ca Guatemala, nhng thi k hn hn khc nghit v
ko di hn gia ma h cn lin quan ti s st gim lng ma
trong mt giai on di t nhng nm 1970.
35
Chnh nhng trn
hn hn ny quyt nh s thnh cng hay tht bi ca li canh tc
dng nc ma.
Cc qu trnh gy thoi ha chm ca t bao gm ph rng, xi
mn t v sa mc ha nh hng ln n nhiu vng Mexico
3.2 Mexico v trung M: Di c ng ph vi hn hn v cc thm ha thin nhin
v Trung M. Trong cc h sinh thi kh hn v bn kh hn d b
tn thng khu vc pha bc v ty bc Mexico, hn 60% din
tch t b xem l ang trong tnh trng xi mn ton b hoc ang
trong giai on xi mn nhanh chng; vng t i ni vi dc
cao trong ton vng cng ang phi tri qua nn ph rng v xi
mn t.
Cc nghin cu ca d n EACH-FOR c tin hnh ti bang
Chiapas pha nam Mexico vn hay b bo ln v ti bang Tlaxcala,
mt bang b sa mc ha nghim trng min trung Mexico. C hai
ni ny u c xem l d tn thng trc tc ng ca bin i
kh hu, c bit l khi kt hp vi ph rng, xi mn, i ngho v
tnh d tn thng v mt x hi.
36
Mexico, di c l mt phn ng i vi iu kin mi trng thay
i, vi khng hong nng nghip v s t do ha nn kinh t nhng
nm 1980.
37
Khi cn bo Stan qut qua Chiapas, nhiu ngi kinh
ngc trc sc tn ph ca n. Mt ngi c phng vn cho bit:
Dng sng cun ht nh ca v ti sn ca chng ti; chng ti
cng gn nh b cun i mt.
38
Tuy nhin, khi nhng ngi dn c
thu nhp rt thp c hi liu di c c phi l mt la chn cho h
khng, a s nhn mnh rng h chng c ch no khc i.
Song vi nhng ngi c mc sng cao hn hoc c h hng sng
nc ngoi, di c ng l mt s la chn dnh cho h.
S tr li ca thin tai cng vi s xut hin ca nhng ngi h
hng tng di c do nhng thm ha t nhin trong qu kh
khi dy mong mun di c ca nhng ngi nng dn.
39
Mt khc,
s a dng ha cc chin lc sinh k
40
v u t ca chnh ph vo
qun l nguy c thm ha li lm gim t l di c, bt k tnh trng
ngho i.
41
Mt s nghin cu ch ra mi lin h gia tnh trng sa mc
ha v tnh trng di c Mexico,
42
c lu n nh hng ca cc
dng sinh k nng thn. nhng vng kh hn nh Tlaxcala, ni
nn nng nghip ph thuc nc ma, a s ngi c phng
vn u phn nn v nhng giai on ma bt thng, khin ma
mng tht bt v thu nhp gim st. Vng Tlaxcala c d bo l
ni c lng nc b mt gim 10-20% do bin i kh hu. Mi
lin h gin tip gia bin i kh hu v di c thng xuyn c
lu trong cc nghin cu ti thc a ny hu nh lin quan n
cc ma thu hoch tht bt do lng ma bt thng. Di c hi
hng v di c theo ma, nh mt chin lc a dng ha sinh k,
cng c ghi nhn khu vc ny. Nh hai ngi c phng vn
sau y gii thch:
khi thu hoch km, chng ti phi t lo cho mnh. Nhiu ngi
trong chng ti phi ri i, ti Canada hoc M S tin ti
kim c l ngun h tr ln cho gia nh. Khng c khon
thu nhp , mi chuyn c l tr nn cc k kh khn.
43
ng ti, b ti v ti my i lm vic trn t ny. Nhng thi
th thay i ma n mun hn lm chng ti sn xut c
t hn. Gii php duy nht l phi i xa, t nht l trong mt thi
gian [ti M]. Nhng phi b lng mi mi ? Khng, ti c
nui dng y v ti s sng y.
44
Di c tm thi v cc khon tin h tr cho ngun thu nhp khng
n nh t nng nghip vn c nhc n trong cc ti liu di c
v mi trng song khng phi lc no cng c xt n trong cc
chnh sch thch nghi v gim nh.
Cc xu hng di c trong nc v quc t hnh thnh kh r
Mexico v Trung M,
45
song kh m d on c nh hng c
th c ca cc xu th kh ha lin quan n bin i kh hu. Tuy
nhin, r rng l cc tc nhn mi trng nh hin tng sa mc
ha v thi tit cc oan gp phn a n nhng kch bn
phc tp cho trnh trng di c ca con ngi trong khu vc. C hi
mt s ngi di c theo ma, gi tin h tr v tr v qu nh l
mt dn chng cho thy di c tm thi l mt chin lc thch nghi
trc tnh trng mi trng ang b hy hoi.
Bn chnh phc ha nhng thay i v lng nc b mt c d on cho nm 2080. Lng nc b mt l mt ch s o lng nc
sn c v lng nc ma chy trn mt t sau qu trnh bc hi, thot hi thc vt v b sung hi m cho t. Mexico v Trung M s
b nh hng rng bi s st gim lng nc b mt. Bn cng ch ra cc bang Tlaxcala v Chiapas ca Mexico, ni m d n EACH-FOR
tin hnh nghin cu. Bn gc tri pha trn cho bit lng nc chy b mt trung bnh hng nm trong giai on 1960-1990, mt
gi tr so snh s suy gim trong tng lai. Bn gc tri pha di cho thy nhng vng t thch hp vi canh tc nng nghip dng
nc ma s b nh hng c bit bi qu trnh kh ha ang gia tng khng ngng khu vc. Di c vng trn, tm thi v theo ma v
truyn thng l mt phng thc ng ph vi tnh trng bin i kh hu trong khu vc, trong khi di c vnh vin trong nc v quc
t ra khi nhng vng ph thuc vo canh tc nng nghip s dng nc ma cng l mt kh nng. Bn gc phi pha di cho bit
tn sut lc xoy trong giai on 1980-2000. Mt s m hnh cho thy s lng bo nhm 4 v 5 ang tng ln vng Caribbe.
88
Phn t c ng c Lng nc chy b mt trung bnh hng nm 1960 - 1990 (mm) t nng nghip thch hp vi canh tc dng nc ma
t yu cu tt rt tt ngho 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 751 1000 0 100 501 750
Vng d n
EACH-FOR
S thay i v lng nc chy b mt (%)
dng (+) () m 0
0
Thnh ph chnh
Bin gii quc gia
50 - 25 24 - 5
101 - 200 201 - 500
4 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 50 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999
9
Thoi ha t, sa mc ha v ph rng l cc tc nhn c kh nng
khin con ngi chn la di c nh mt chin lc thch nghi ca
c gia nh.
46
S thoi ha t c nh ngha trong iu 1 ca
Cng c Chng Sa mc ha l: s gim hoc mt nng sut sinh
hc hoc kinh t ca cc h sinh thi do nhng thay i ca kh
hu, do s dng t v s kt hp ca nhiu qu trnh nh xi mn
t, thoi ha cc thnh phn t v s mt i thm thc vt v
di hn. Do , s gim nng sut t c lin h mt thit vi bin
i kh hu.
Mc d kh c c nhng c tnh chnh xc v din tch t b
thoi ha, mt s c tnh cng cho rng hn mt phn ba t
kh ang b nh hng bi thoi ha t.
47
Thoi ha t l vn
chnh ca Ty Phi, ni c khong 65% t c th canh tc nay b
thoi ha.
48
Trong giai on 2000-2005, vng Ty v Trung Phi
mt 1,36 triu ha rng che ph mi nm vi con s tng cng l
67.800 km
2
.
49
Hn 300 triu ngi chu Phi phi sng trong
tnh trng khan him nc v s khu vc thiu nc c l s cn
tng thm mt phn ba ti nm 2050.
50
Ty Phi l vng t vi cc h sinh thi a dng, t nhit i m
pha Nam cho ti kh hn pha Bc. Trong khi cc d on v bin
i kh hu i vi lng ma tuyt theo ma hoc hng nm cn
cha chc chn, th d bo v s gia tng cng ma, b sung
thm vo tnh bin ng v kh hu vn cao trong vng, dng
nh s khin tn sut ca hn hn v l lt gia tng. S thiu nc
v thoi ha t nh hng ti nhiu vng trong khu vc Sahel,
mt khu vc nm pha nam Sahara v pha bc ca mt khu vc
m t tri di t ty sang ng qua chn nc, t Mauritania v
3.3 Khu vc Sahel: Sc p ln sinh k nng thn v tnh trng di c ang tng dn
Bn chnh phc ha s suy gim lng nc chy b mt d on n nm 2080 trn mt dn c. Lng nc b mt l mt ch s
o lng nc sn c v lng nc ma chy trn mt t sau qu trnh bc hi, thot hi thc vt v b sung hi m cho t. Mexico
v Trung M s b nh hng rng bi s st gim lng nc b mt. Nhng phn c gch cho mu nu l nhng vng nghin cu
ca d n EACH-FOR. Bn gc tri pha di cho bit lng nc chy b mt trung bnh hng nm trong giai on 1960-1990, mt
gi tr so snh s suy gim trong tng lai. Bn gia cho bit din tch thch hp cho canh tc dng nc ma, vn phn nh rt r
bn mt dn s. Bn pha bn phi cho bit s phn b t ng c, mt ngun sinh k quan trng khu vc Sahel. Vng ny
vn khan him ngun nc, kh hu bin ng nhiu, do vy bt k s suy gim lng nc chy b mt hoc mt s thay i no trong
hnh thi ma cng s nh hng xu n sinh k ca ngi nng dn v ch tri chn nui t cung t cp. Cc xu hng kh ha c d
bo trong bi cnh ngho i, bt cng, s hn ch trong la chn a dng ha cng s thiu n nh trong h tr ca chnh ph c th s
gp phn chuyn i cc xu th di c hin thi sang hng lu di v nng ng hn v di hn.
Senegal ti Sudan. Khu vc Sahel thuc Ty Phi chng kin hai t
hn hn - mt t hn hn ln t nm 1968-1974 v mt t khc t
khc nghit hn vo nm 1982-1984 - c xem l hai trong nhng
t hn hn ti t nht trong lch s.
51
Trn hn hn th nht gy nn
ci cht ca hn 100.000 ngi, phn ln l tr em.
52
n nm 1974,
hn 750.000 ngi Mali, Niger v Mauritania sng hon ton nh
vo thc phm cu tr.
53
Nhng t hn hn ny v h qu sau l
s thoi ha t ngy nay c hiu mt phn l do s m ln cc
bin nhit i, mt hin tng m bn thn n cng xut pht t bin
i kh hu do con ngi gy ra.
54
Nhng sc p mi trng nh vy
c th cn tng ln trong tng lai cng vi bin i kh hu.
Khong 44% dn s Ty Phi lm nng nghip,
55
phn ln trong s
l t cung t cp. Mc d khu vc c kh hu a dng ny ph
thuc ln vo nng nghip, nhng vng thc s c ti tiu
y li nm trong s nhng vng c cp nc t nht th gii
tnh trn mt n v din tch. V d, Senegal nm 2005, ch c
67.000 ha trn tng s 8,8 triu ha c ti tiu nc, tc l t hn
1%.
56
Mc d khu vc Sahel chng kin mt s xanh ha tr
li t sau t hn hn vo gia nhng nm 1980, th khong 2,6%
din tch khu vc ny vn c t l tng dn s cao th hai th gii
(sau Trung Phi).
57
S tng dn s ny kt hp vi s vn ng ca
kh hu v tnh trng thoi ha t c th dn ti:
gim sn xut nng nghip trn u ngi, bao gm c chn
nui gia sc
thiu ci un
gim lng ma mt s khu vc ko theo nh hng n nn
nng nghip dng nc ma v ti tiu
thiu lng thc v nn i trong nhng nm hn hn
lung di c ra thnh th hoc ti nhng khu nng nghip mu
m hn, nh nhng vng mi m gn y khu vc Savannah,
sau khi xa s cn bnh m sng (gy ra bi giun ch u sng
trong cc dng sng).
58

Di c, c bit l di c lun chuyn, l mt phng thc ng ph
truyn thng vng ny, nh mt chin lc a dng ha sinh k.
59

Nhng mt s ni, nhng phng thc truyn thng ny thay
i trong nhng thp k gn y.
60
Mi a phng c nhng c
im ring, nhng mu s chung l tnh trng di c v sc p i
cc h sinh thi t v nc. Phn ln s ngi b mt ch phi di
c trong khu vc Sahel l do thoi ha t v hn hn, mc d di c
do hn hn thng ch l tm thi. Nhn chung, c mt ln sng di
c ti cc im tp trung vng duyn hi v th cng nh ti
cc quc gia bn b bin.
61

Mt nghin cu v nh hng ca bin i kh hu trn nhng
vng t kh Ty Phi ghi nhn rng trong giai on t nm 1960
n 2000, tnh trng suy thoi mi trng do gim lng ma,
thoi ha t, s khc nghit nhng vng kh hn v bn kh
hn ca Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso v Niger dn ti mt lung
di c nhanh chng trong nc v pha nam v s phnh ra ca
nhng thnh ph ln nh Dakar, Bamako, Ouagadougou, Niamey
v Kano.
62
Cc c tnh cho Burkina Faso cho bit gn mt na s
ngi trng thnh c sinh ra quc gia ny di c, t nht l
trong vi thng, ti nhng quc gia nm ven bin nh B Bin Ng
v Ghana.
63
K c nhng ngi khng ph thuc trc tip vo cc ngun ti
nguyn thin nhin sinh nhai vn c th b nh hng bi s sa
mc ha v c ng c di c. Mt ngi di c t vng Difa Ni-
ger gii by: Ti tng sng vng H Chad, ni mi hot ng ca
ti u khng trc tip lin quan n h. Ti tng l mt thng
nhn. Tuy nhin, khi h kh cn, nhng ngi sng da vo n
phi ri n cc quc gia khc v do cng vic kinh doanh ca
ti cng b nh hng theo v ri ti phi ri n Nigeria.
64
l0
Chn th truyn thng l mt hnh thc quan trng thch nghi
vi tnh bin ng ca kh hu v cc ch tri c th di chuyn gia
sc theo ma ma.
65
Mi quan h cng sinh thng c hnh
thnh gia ngi chn nui gia sc v ngi trng trt, khi ngi
trng trt dng phn gia sc bn rung i li vic cho gia sc
gm c di. Tuy nhin, khi khu vc Sahel tr nn ng c hn, cc
xung t ngy cng ln v t v ngun nc s xy ra gia ngi
chn nui v ngi trng trt.
66

Ti Senegal, nghin cu thc a cho thy nhng thay i mi
trng nh hng tiu cc n cc dng sinh k nng thn v gp
phn dn n tnh trng di c theo nhiu c ch khc nhau. nhng
vng c th canh tc ti tiu, ngi nng dn sng gn sng Sen-
egal cho rng li sng ca h vn tip tc c duy tr v do vy
h khng c nh di c trong tng lai. Nhng nhng vng nh
lu vc Peanut, ni thoi ha t din ra rt nghim trng, nhng
ngi c phng vn u cho bit h s ln k hoch ri i nu
cc iu kin sinh k nng thn khng c ci thin. a s nhng
ngi di c cng u ni rng h s quay tr v sng vng
nng thn nu cc iu kin sinh k c ci thin. Ti Senegal, cc
chuyn gia cn quan st c mt s di chuyn tr li vng nng
thn do khng hong kinh t ton cu. Tuy nhin, c ch ng ph
ang gp phi nhng sc p ngc bi trong nhiu trng hp
nhng vng t n ngi tr v y b suy thoi. Xung t v
tip cn t ai c v ang tng ln.
67
Mt s nng dn c xoay x tm k sinh nhai khc c tr v
nh. Ti Niger, mt ngi di c tr v lng Talcho, Filingue (Tilabri,
Niger) cho bit: Ti mt hy vng tip tc sn xut nng nghip
bi t ai qu bc mu do hn hn. Ti tng l mt nng dn
th trn qu ti. u tin ti ti Lom (Togo) v sau l Libya.
Gi y ti quyt nh phi tr v Niger v s bt u kinh doanh
bng s tin m ti dnh dm c Libya.
68

Thay v tr v sau khi di c, xu hng li i theo hng ngc li.
69

Ngi ta c tng bc mt tip tc di c tm kim mi trng
thun li hn. Lng Car vng Tilabri thuc Niger gi y
tr thnh ngi nh cho nhng ngi di c n t Farka, mt ngi
lng m tnh trng thoi ha t khin c dn khng cn
canh tc c na. Mt ngi di c cho bit: Chng ti trc y
l nng dn Farka, nhng tnh trng sn xut km i qu nhiu,
ma mng tht bt do thiu ma v t b thoi ha. Chng ti
khng c ngun thu nhp no khc. Do vy, chng ti phi b
lng i vo nm 1987 khng c l do no khc khin chng ti
phi b qu hng ca mnh; nu cht lng t khng b xu i
th chng ti li. Hin nay Car chng ti ang phi chu
nhng vn tng t v c th li phi ri khi ni y tm
mt vng t khc. Chng ti cha tng c k hoch ri i, nhng
chng ti cng ch bit xoay vn theo cuc sng ca mnh thi.
70
Trong mt nghin cu khc Burkina Faso, cc nghin cu vin
nhn ra rng nhng ngi n t nhng vng kh hn dng nh
hay di c tm thi n cc vng nng thn khc (di c nng thn
- nng thn) v t di c vnh vin hn so vi nhng ngi n t cc
vng t m t. S thiu ma lm tng di c nng thn nng
thn nhng li lm gim di c ra nc ngoi. Khng thy c lung
di c t n thnh ph trong sut cc thi k hn hn.
71
Mt ngi
dn chi lng Sirba (Tilabri, Niger) k li: Tnh trng thiu nc
ma khin con sng cn kit khin sn lng nh bt c ca ti
b st gim, nh hng trc tip n thu nhp. Nu tnh trng ny
khng ci thin, c th ti s phi sang nc khc, ging nh mt
s bn b v h hng ca ti lm. H n Nigeria, Burkina Faso
v nh c ti .
72
Cc nghin cu nhng vng khc cng
xc nhn pht hin ny v nhn nh rng iu kin mi trng
thng ng vai tr trc tip hn n lung di c ngn hn so vi
di hn.
73
Tuy nhin, nu nhng thay i mi trng lm cho qu
nh tr thnh mt ni khng th sng c, th di c ngn hn c
th pht trin thnh xu th di c ngy cng di hn.
Robert Ford thuc Trung tm o to GIS v Vin Thm, i hc
Quc gia Rwanda cho bit: Nhng ngi ang sng chung vi
nhng vn ny ti chu Phi u thy c mt s dng di c
chnh ca con ngi. Nhiu ni chu Phi, nhng ngi sng bn
ldng nh nhanh chng nhn ra nhng du hiu cho thy cuc
sng s tt hn nu h ra thnh ph hay tr v qu hng. S vn
ng ny, trc khi bin i kh hu thc s tn cng chng ta, cho
ti bit rng tt nht chng ta nn c s chun b tt hn.
74
ll
Tnh n cui nm 2008, s dn b mt ch ca Sudan ln ti 4,9 triu ngi, con s ln nht trn th gii. Hn 523 032 ngi Sudan
phi ri t nc i t nn (UNHCR, 06/2008). Nguyn nhn ca tnh trng mt ch v di c Sudan c ghi nhn l phc tp.
Tuy nhin, thay i ca mi trng c tha nhn rng ri l mt yu t then cht.
l2 12
Khu vc trng trt
Tn sut lc xoy, 1980 - 2000
100%
0%
k
h
n
g

c

l
i
u
Din tch lt ti a, 2007
d
i
n
t
c
h
l
t
Cao
Thp
1 mt 2 mt
Vng duyn hi c
cao thp so vi mc nc bin
Khu vc
thnh th
Vng nghin cu
ca d n
EACH-FOR
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
Population Density, 2000 (persons per km)
Thnh ph chnh
Bin gii quc gia
l3 12
Khu vc trng trt
Tn sut lc xoy, 1980 - 2000
100%
0%
k
h
n
g

c

l
i
u
d
i
n
t
c
h
l
t
Cao
Thp
1 mt 2 mt
Vng duyn hi c
cao thp so vi mc nc bin
Khu vc
thnh th
Vng nghin cu
ca d n
EACH-FOR
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
Population Density, 2000 (persons per km)
Thnh ph chnh
Bin gii quc gia
Tnh c sng Hng, Bangladesh c by con sng ln v hn hai trm
con sng nh, tt c to nn mt vng a l chu th c trng ca
Bangladesh v li sng ca ngi dn ni y. Bangladesh l mt
trong nhng quc gia ng dn nht trn th gii, vi phn ln s
dn sng ph thuc vo cc ngun ti nguyn thin nhin. Mc d
l lt l mt phn ca cu trc sinh k v vn ha, bin i kh hu
s lm tng nhanh nhng thay i trong mi trng vn nhiu
bin ng v y hng triu ngi dn Bangladesh vo vng nh
hng ca tnh trng l lt ngy mt tng, lc xoy nghim trng
v mc nc bin dng.
75

Hn 5 triu ngi Bangladesh sng trong nhng vng rt d b tn
thng trc lc xoy v sng thn v hn mt na dn s sng
dc theo 100 km b bin m hu ht ch cao hn mc nc bin
cha ti 12m.
76
L lt hin ang khin khong 500.000 ngi b
mt ch mi nm. Nm 2007, c hai bin c thi tit tn ph
t nc ny. Mt trn lt lm 3.363 ngi cht v gy nh hng
ti 10 triu ngi khc, ng thi lm gim 13% sn lng ma
mng. Ch vi thng sau , cn lc xoy Sidr ph hy 1,5 triu
ngi nh cng nhiu vng trng trt v rng ngp mn rng ln,
nh hng ti 30 trn tng s 64 qun ca c nc. Hng triu
ngi phi chu tnh trng an ninh lng thc khng c m bo
v phi nhn h tr s tn, nh v h tr thit hi.
77
Tuy nhng
cn lc xoy ny tn ph gh gm, cc h thng cnh bo sm
cng thnh cng trong vic cu nhiu ngn ngi thot cht.
Nm 1970, mt cn lc xoy lm cht c tnh khong 300.000
ngi v nm 1991, 140.000 ngi t vong.
78

Nghin cu tnh hung ca d n EACH-FOR ti Bangladesh
nhn ra rng lt li v s xi mn b l mt tp hp phc tp ca
nhng tin trnh t nhin v kinh t - x hi, gp phn gy ra tnh
trng mt ch ca ngi dn.
79
Kt hp vi hin tng nc bin
dng, triu cng gn vi lc xoy c th nhn chm tm thi nhiu
vng rng ln Bangladesh - mt nghin cu cho rng c ti 25%
din tch t nhin ca nc ny c th ri vo tnh trng nh vy.
80
Lung di c tm thi do l lt v cc thm ha khc, thng l
hng ti Dhaka v cc trung tm th khc, va c xem nh
mt chin lc ng ph, va l chin lc sinh tn thot khi
s xi mn b sng, s tn ph ca nhng cn lc xoy v tnh
trng mt an ninh lng thc. Hu ht tt c cc vng Bangla-
desh u ng dn c v ang pht trin, ng thi nhiu ni li
d tn thng trc nhng nguy c mi trng tng t. Chnh v
th, khng c g m bo l dn di c s tm c vic lm hay nh
ti nhng ni h chuyn n.
i vi nhng lng nh c ven bin, lc xoy, triu cng v nc
bin dng ang t ra nhng thch thc ln v thch nghi. Trong
ma lc xoy nm 2008, tr li phng vn nh bo, mt ngi dn
chi cho bit: Bin ang tin vo ngy mt gn hn, v sau
ni thm bng ting Bengal, Allah jane ke hobe. Sahbi shesh ho
jabe. [Ch c Cha mi bit iu g s xy ra. Mi th ri s n
hi kt.] Bt chp vic xi mn ngy cng tng do thy triu ngy
cng mnh v ln cao hn, dn lng vn quyt tm bm tr vi sinh
k ca mnh cng lu cng tt. Mt ngi dn chi khc cho bit:
Chng ti chng th lm c g khc, l l do ti sao chng ti
phi suy ngh rt nhiu v vic di chuyn khi y. Chng ti bit
l sp kt thc ri, nhng chng ti c th tm cng vic g nui
sng gia nh mnh ni khc?
81

Ngay c khi nguyn nhn dn n di c l nh nhau, ngi ta vn
la chn nhng chin lc khc nhau xt v im n v thi gian
di c. Nhng c th s n lc h khng cn thch nghi c na.
Trong vng 20 hoc 30 nm ti, Bangladesh c th s chng kin
mt lung di c ln ca nhng ngi cc vng d b lt, c th l
ti cc trung tm th. Cc th ch v t chc hin ti ang gip
nhng nn nhn ca thm ha t nhin s khng cn sc
xoay x vi s gia tng ca dng ngi di c trong tng lai.
t trong bi cnh ca nhng bt n chnh tr trong vng, di dn
do bin i kh hu c th tr thnh mt vn i vi an ninh
khu vc.
Tuy nhin, cc chin lc thch nghi c th gim kh nng tn
thng ca mi trng v lm tng sc thch nghi ca cc cng
ng a phng. Nghin cu ca d n EACH-FOR cho rng cng
ng dn c vng chu th sng Hng ang tm cch thch nghi
vi hon cnh mi, ch yu l bng cch t b trng trt i theo
cc sinh k khc, chng hn nh nui tm.
82
Tuy nhin, tnh trng
mi trng suy thoi ng bng sng Hng c th bin di c
thnh mt trong nhng la chn thc t kh thi nht i vi mt
b phn ngi dn Bangladesh.
3.4 ng bng sng hng: Di c tm thi nh mt chin lc sinh tn
Bn chnh m t nhng vng c mc nc bin dng cao 1 v 2 mt (tng ng l xanh nc bin sm v nht) trn bn mt dn
c vi khu vc thnh th c nh du. N cng cho bit nhng vng nghin cu ca d n EACH-FOR vng chu th thp hn. ng
bng sng Hng nui sng 144 triu dn vo nm 2000, trong c 9,4 triu ngi ang sng trong nhng vng s b nhn chm khi mc
nc bin dng ln 2 mt. Bn gc tri pha trn cho bit nhng khu vc chu nh hng ca lc xoy nhit i thng xuyn nht,
trong nhng vng mc nc bin dng t hn pha ng nam ca ng bng b nh hng nhiu nht. Bn gc tri pha di
cho bit din tch b nh hng bi trn lt nm 2007. Bn gia cho bit tnh hnh phn b t nng nghip. ng bng ny c 8,5
triu ha t nng nghip, trong 486 ngn ha s b nhn chm khi mc nc bin dng ln 2 mt. ng bng Sng Hng, sng chung
vi mc nc ln xung l mt phn ca cuc sng. Lung di c, c bit l ti nhng vng th ven bin, tng ln nh mt c ch
ng ph khi nhng hin tng thi tit cc oan e da cuc sng v sinh k. Vi s dng ln ca mc nc bin theo d on, kt hp vi
kh nng s c lt li ln hn v triu cng mnh hn, di c c th tr nn cn thit i vi nhiu cng ng, t nht l trong mt khong
thi gian ca nm.
l4 14
Vng trng trt
100%
0%
k
h
n
g

c

l
i
u
D
i
n
t
c
h
l
t
1 mt 2 mt
Vng ven bin c cao
thp so vi mc nc bin Khu vc
thnh th
Vng nghin cu
ca d n
EACH-FOR
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
Thnh ph chnh
Bin gii quc gia
l5
Suy thoi mi trng, c bit l nhng nh hng gy ra bi l
lt, l mt tc nhn gp phn dn n tnh trng mt ch v di c
khi khu vc nng thn ng bng sng M Kng ti Vit Nam
(ng bng sng Cu Long - BSCL). y l ngi nh chung ca
18 triu ngi, tng ng vi 22% dn s Vit Nam. Vng chu
th ny cung cp ti 40% din tch t canh tc v ng gp hn
mt phn t GDP ca c nc. Mt na s go Vit Nam c sn
xut t BSCL, bn cnh 60% tm c v 80% tri cy ca c nc.
Khong 90% lng go xut khu ca Vit Nam l t khu vc ny.
L c nh hng quan trng n nn kinh t v vn ha ca khu
vc ny. Con ngi ni y sng chung vi l v ph thuc vo cc
chu k l nhng gii hn nht nh. V d, mc ngp lt t na
mt n ba mt c coi l tnh trng bnh thng i vi sinh k
ca ngi dn. Mc ngp c gi ngi dn a phng gi l
ngp nng, v d nh khu vc u ngun thuc tnh An Giang.
Mc ngp cao hn, khong gia ba mt v bn mt, c gi l
ngp va, tuy nhin cng l thch thc i vi kh nng thch
nghi ca ngi dn v thng c nhng nh hng khc nghit
n k sinh nhai.
Mc ngp trn bn mt, c gi l ngp su, l mc ngp nguy
him. Trong nhng thp k gn y, nhng trn ngp lt nh vy
Vit Nam ang tng ln c v mc v tn sut.
83
Ti Phnom Penh
(Cam pu chia), mt ngi dn t BSCL di c n cho bit: ni
ti sng trc y, l lt xy ra hng nm. Ti khng th trng trt
v thu hoch g. Cuc sng hi do vy rt kh s. Hn na, gia
nh chng ti li khng bit phi lm g khc ngoi trng la v
nh bt c. L lt i khi e da n cuc sng ca chng ti. V
vy m chng ti n y tm mt k sinh nhai khc.
84

Mt ngi nhp c khc cho bit: Gia nh ti c nhiu t canh
tc, nhng nhng nm gn y, l lt xy ra rt thng xuyn
3.5 ng bng sng M Kng: Sng chung vi l v ti nh c
Bn chnh phc ha cc khu vc c mc nc bin dng mc 1 v 2 mt (tng ng l mu xanh nc bin sm v nht) trn
bn mt dn s vi nhng khu vc thnh th c nh du. Bn cng cho bit nhng vng nghin cu ca d n EACH-
FOR. ng bng M Kng nui sng 28,5 triu dn vo nm 2000, trong 14,2 triu ngi ang sng trong nhng vng s b nhn
chm khi mc nc bin dng ln 2m. Bn gc tri pha trn cho bit din tch b lt trong nm 2000 khi nhng trn lt gi ma
bt thng trn din rng nhn chm gn 800.000 km
2
t Cam pu chia, Vit Nam, Thi Lan v Lo. Bn pha di cho bit tnh
trng phn b t nng nghip. ng bng M Kng c 3 triu ha t nng nghip, trong 1,4 triu ha s b nhn chm khi mc
nc bin dng ln 2m. Cc chng trnh ti nh c c trin khai mt s vng v c th c nhn rng theo cc mc nc
bin dng nht nh.
khin ma mng tht bt. Thm vo , gi phn bn cng tng
rt nhanh v cc bnh hi la th qu nhiu, do chng ti
chng thu hoch c my. Nhiu lc thu hoch thm ch cn
khng n.
85

Thin tai cng vi sc p ln mi trng do s pht trin kinh t
x hi qu nhanh Vit Nam v cc quc gia thng ngun ng
Nam khc, cng thm nhng e da t bin i kh hu, ang t
ngun ti nguyn thin nhin ca Vit Nam v nhng ngi sng
da vo chng vo tnh trng nguy him. Trc cc sc p mi
trng y, ngi dn chu th M Kng thch nghi bng nhiu
cch khc nhau. Mt trong nhng c ch thch nghi c th l di
c, c bit l di nh hng ca nhng thay i nhanh chng
v kinh t - x hi m Vit Nam hin ang tri qua. Nhng thay i
ny ang to ra mt sc ht mnh hn i vi cc lung di c n
vng th.
86
Nghin cu thc a ca d n EACH-FOR cho bit, vic thiu cc
ngun sinh k thay th, vic kh kim sng trn mt nc ngp,
cng vi nhng mn n ngy cng tng c th gp phn a n
cc quyt nh di c chu th sng M Kng. Nhng ngi sng
ph thuc trc tip vo nng nghip (nng dn trng la) c bit
d b tn thng khi nhng trn lt lin tip ph hoi ma mng.
iu ny c th dn n quyt nh di c ti mt vng t mi
tm ngun sinh k thay th. Trong sut ma lt, ngi dn di c
theo ma n cc trung tm th tm vic lm v ci thin sinh
k. Nh mt c ch ng ph cc oan, thng tin bn l ca nghin
cu thc a cho bit, nn bun ngi cng l mt cch thc di c
m mt s gia nh, trc nhng sc p lin quan n ngun nc,
phi chp nhn.
Mt ngi dn di c c phng vn cho bit nhng tn tht
v ti chnh ca gia nh mnh lin quan n l lt: Thin tai xy
ra rt thng xuyn khin ma mng tht bt. Chng ti phi
vay mn tin chi tiu. Hin nay, gia nh ti khng th tr
c cc mn n v ti phi n y tm vic lm gip gia
nh tr n.
87

Chnh ph Vit Nam c mt chng trnh gi l sng chung vi
l.
88
Chng trnh ny c th s tr nn quan trng hn khi nhng
nh hng ca bin i kh hu tr nn r rng hn. Chnh ph
hin nay ang thc hin ti nh c cho ngi dn sng nhng
vng nguy him dc b sng thuc tnh An Giang, nh mt phn
ca chin lc qun l l lt.
89
Gn 20.000 gia nh ngho v mt
t tnh ny c a vo din ti nh c cho n nm 2020.
Vic la chn cc gia nh ti nh c da trn mt s cc nhn
t lin quan n mi trng, nh sng trong mt vng c nguy
c thin tai (l lt, l t) hoc xi l b sng. Cc chng trnh
ti nh c ny cho cc gia nh vay khng li sut mua mt
mnh t nh v xy th mt ngi nh. Cc gia nh sau thng
cn vay tip hon thin ngi nh.
90
Mt s dch v h tng nh
trng hc, dch v chm sc sc khe, thit b x l nc v nc
thi cng c cung cp cho ngi dn.
91
Nhng ngi c ln
k hoch ti nh c thng l nhng ngi mt t, khng cn
ni no khc n nu mt nh v thng l qu ngho c
th chuyn n khu vc thnh th. Vi nhng ngi ny, cc mng
li x hi gip to ra cc ngun sinh k - hu ht ch l cc cng
vic vt thu theo ngy. Mc d cc cm tuyn ti nh c thng
ch cch ni c 1-2 km, vic a ngi dn tch khi nhng mng
li x hi c s e da ngun sinh k ca h v to ra mt s
tch bit. Hn na, cc cm tuyn ti nh c cng cha c thit
k theo cch cho php nhng ngi dn c nguy c phi ti nh
c tham gia.
Chin lc sng chung vi l ca Vit Nam s kt hp ti nh c,
chuyn i sinh k (v d t trng la sang nui v nh bt c) v
di c mt phn. Trong tng lai, c mi ngi Vit Nam li c mt
ngi phi i mt vi nguy c mt ch khi mc nc bin dng
ti chu th sng M Kng.
92
l6 16
Vng trng trt
100%
0%
k
h
n
g

c

l
i
u
1 mt 2 mt
Vng duyn hi c cao
thp so vi mc nc bin Khu vc thnh th
0 1 - 4 5 - 24 25 - 249 250 - 999 1000 +
Thnh ph chnh
l7
Ai Cp, nhng hin tng din tin chm nh nc bin dng v
sa mc ha ang tc ng n ng bng Sng Nile.
93
Tng din
tch ca Cng ha Rp Ai Cp l khong mt triu km, trong
hu ht c kh hu kh v kh kit. Nhng vng c kh nng
sn xut tt nht Ai Cp l ng bng Sng Nile v thung lng
Nile (chim 3% tng din tch). S dng ln ca mc nc bin
theo d on s khin dn c vn ang gia tng nhanh chng di
chuyn n nhng vng dn s ng c hn. Tnh trng sa mc
ha v thoi ha t ang din ra trn nhng vng t rng ln
pha ng v pha Ty ng bng Sng Nile. Nhng vng t
c th s tr thnh hoang ha bi tc ng kp ca hai nhn t
lin quan n bin i kh hu l sa mc ha v nc bin dng.
Trong tng lai, hin tng nc bin dng cn c th nh hng
thm ti 16% dn s.
94

Tng din tch cc cn ct v t b nh hng bi s xm ln ca
ct c tnh xp x 800.000 ha.
95
Nng sut ca t hin gim
khong 25% so vi nng sut ban u.
96
Tc xi mn hng
nm c tnh l khong gia 0,8 v 5,3 tn/ha/nm.
97
Sa mc ha
v thoi ha t khin mt b phn dn phi di c trong nc
tm k sinh nhai.
Chnh ph Ai Cp ang chng li sa mc ha bng mt chin
lc di dn trong nc gn vi D n Quc gia Mobarak pha
Ty v pha ng ng bng. K hoch ny ban u c thit
k nhm gim bt gnh nng cho cc chng trnh mi trng,
gim tht nghip, ngho i v qu ti dn s Cairo, Beheira,
Kafr El-Sheikh v Qalioubia. D n ny hng ti mc tiu to
ra mt dng di c ni a t thnh th v nng thn dc theo ra
ng bng.
Phn ln nhng ngi c ti nh c ng bng pha ng
l nhng thanh nin tht nghip n t cc khu chut trong
thnh ph. Ngc li, phn ln nhng ngi chuyn n ng
3.6 ng bng sng Nile: Mc kt gia sa mc ha v nc bin dng
Bn chnh phc tho nhng vng c mc nc bin dng ln 1 v 2m (tng ng l mu xanh nc bin sm v nht) trn bn
mt dn s vi khu vc th c nh du. Bn cng cho thy bin gii ca ng bng sng Nile. ng bng sng Nile
nui sng 40,2 triu ngi vo nm 2000, trong s 10,7 triu ngi sng nhng vng s b nhn chm khi mc nc bin dng
ln 2m. Bn c lng thm vo cho bit tnh trng phn b t nng nghip. ng bng c 1,5 triu ha t nng nghip, trong
518 ngn ha s b nhn chm khi mc nc bin dng ln 2m. Nhng tin trnh ny s buc ngi dn phi tm kim vng t nh
hn c th sinh tn v s khin cht lng cuc sng b suy gim.
bng pha Ty l nhng nng dn b nh hng ca mt o
lut c li cho ch t, khin h c th d dng ui t in khi
nhng khu vc canh tc thun li. Sau khi b xua ui, ngi nng
dn c chnh ph a n ng bng pha Ty.
Chng trnh ny giao cho mi ngi t in v thng l c
nhng ngi nhp c khc n lm vic nh nng dn ng
bng pha ng v ng bng pha Ty mt phn t rng
10,500m. Tuy nhin, vng t sm gp phi kh khn do
mn trong t v nc. Khi chi ph o ging tr nn qu t ,
nhiu ch t phi bn t ca mnh i v trc xut nhng
nng dn nhp c. Mt ngi nng dn cho bit: Khi ri lng c
ca mnh l Bassioun-Gharbia trung tm ng bng, ti bt
u lm vic trn khu t mi c giao sa mc. Sau mt thi
gian, vng t ny b nh hng bi s mui ha ngun nc
ngm. Ngi ch t quyt nh bn n i. Ti buc phi ri
khi v n Embaba, mt vng ho lnh Ty Cairo.
98
Nhng
ngi nhp c mi nhn c cc dch v v ni , khuyn nng
v th y t chnh ph v cc NGO. Ngun ti tr t chnh ph h
tr ngi nhp c thuc dit cn trng v thuc th phn nhn
to. Tuy nhin, nhng u t ban u v ng lc khuyn khch
ngi dn ngho di c n nhng vng t mi gim dn theo thi
gian. Khu ng bng pha Ty v pha ng thiu iu kin tip xc
vi nc ung, thiu c s h tng thch hp cng cc dch v cng
nh trng hc, h thng chm sc sc khe v nhng h thng
x l nc thi vn hnh tt. Kt qu l nhiu ngi di c n
khng li trong khi nhng ngi khc ang mun ri n nhng
vng t khc hoc tr v qu hng. Ngy nay, ch mt na din
tch t ti nh c vn cn c s dng.
Vi hai qu trnh tc ng song song l sa mc ha v nc bin
dng, cu hi t ra l nhng ngi dn trong khu vc ng bng
sng Nile vn ng c s i v u? Nghin cu ca d n
EACH-FOR cho thy nhiu ngi khng mun di c khi vng t
qu hng ca h. Mt ngi sng trn b sng Nile khi c
phng vn ni: Thiu nc, t b thoi ha v thu hoch
ma mng st gim l ra l l do ti ra i. Nhng ti khng
th ri b mnh t ca mnh. Ti c tha hng mnh t
ny t cha ng ti nhiu nm trc y v khng th ri b n. Ti
quen vi ni ny, gia nh ln v bn b ca ti sng y. Ti
cha bao gi ri ni ny, ti cng cha bao gi i Cairo, vy lm
sao ti c th d dng ri khi y v n mt ni no khc?
Chng ti s phi cn i li chi tiu v hy vng mi vic s tt
p hn.
99
l8
Cc quc o nh c bit d tn thng trc hin tng nc
bin dng do bin i kh hu. Theo IPCC:
Mc nc bin dng c cho l s lm tng thm s ngp lt, triu
cng, xi mn v cc thin tai khc ven bin, do s e da c
s h tng, s nh c v cc iu kin h tr sinh k ca cc cng
ng trn o (...) C bng chng r rng cho thy, trong hu ht
cc kch bn bin i kh hu, ngun ti nguyn nc nhng o
nh dng nh b tn hi nghim trng (...) Bin i kh hu c
d on s nh hng nng n n nhng rn san h, thy hi sn
v cc ngun ti nguyn da vo bin khc. (...) Nn nng nghip
t cung t cp v nn nng nghip thng mi trn nhng o nh
theo d bo cng s b nh hng xu bi bin i kh hu.
100
3.7 tuvalu v qun o Maldive: Nc bin dng v cc quc o ang pht trin
Cc bn ny cho ta bit iu g?
Cc bn ny m t tnh trng b nh hng bi mc nc bin
dng ln 1m (xanh sm) v 2m (xanh nht) ca hai th - Funafuti
ca Tuvalu v Mal ca qun o Maldive. Nhng hn o thp i
mt vi nhiu thch thc v pht trin v thin tai nh triu cng,
lc xoy, xi mn b bin v nguy c nc bin dng. i vi 40 quc
Tuvalu
L mt trong s cc quc o san h vng nm v tr thp v xa xi
nht trn Tri t, Tuvalu l mt in hnh v s tn ti ca mt t
nc b e da bi hin tng nc bin dng. Lnh th ca Tuvalu
tri di trn mt din tch hn 750.000 km
2
, nhng ch c 26 km
2
l t
kh m khng c im no cao qu 5m so vi mc thy triu cao.
cao so vi mc nc bin thp khin Tuvalu rt d b tn thng
trc s dng ln ca mc nc bin, triu cng, thy triu vua
(king tides) v cc bin c kh hu khc nh hng ti ton b c
dn ca quc gia ny (tt c ngi dn Tuvalu sng bn b bin).
Cc vn mi trng ca Tuvalu l s kt hp su xa ca tnh trng
thiu nc, vn x l cht thi v sc p dn s. Nhn bit ca a
phng v vn nng ln ton cu ang thay i, tuy nhin, ngp
lt do nc bin xy ra ngy cng nhiu hn, xi mn b bin ngy
cng tng v nn nng nghip ngy cng kh khn l nhng bng
chng hin nhin cho thy mi trng ang thay i. Nhng trn
triu cng v thy triu vua vt qu kh nng thch nghi ca
nhiu ngi dn Tuvalu. Vi kh nng mc nc bin dng khong
mt mt trong th k ny, thm ch nu din tch b mt khng b
nhn chm hon ton, vn c mt cu hi t ra l ngi dn ni y
c th sng mt cuc sng bnh thng trong bao lu na.
Lung di c Tuvalu chia lm 2 hng: t nhng hn o bn
ngoi vo Funafuti v t Tuvalu ti Fiji v New Zealand. Hin nay
khong 3.000 ngi Tuvalu di c ti Auckland, New Zealand,
nhiu ngi trong s c t nht mt phn l do gn vi mi
trng. Mt ngi c phng vn cho bit quyt nh di c ca
ng n t ni lo s rng Tuvalu s b ngp: Ti khng mun mt
bui sng thc dy vi hn o b xa s. Hy nhn nhng g
xy ra vi cc hn o Solomon! Ti mun ri i ngay by gi trc
khi chng cn s la chn no khc.
101
Nhng m h bt nh v tng lai dng nh l tc nhn ln nht
dn n di c, thm ch cn hn c nhng quan ngi thc t v mi
trng. Hu ht mi ngi dn di c New Zealand c phng
vn u cho bit bin i kh hu v hin tng nc bin dng
gp phn dn n quyt nh di c ca h. Tt c u cho rng t
nc ca h c th b ngp vnh vin. Mt ngi di c cho bit: Khi
ti ri i, r rng l mi th ang xu dn i theo nm thng... Ti
tr v mi nm mt ln, bi v ti vn cn gia nh Tuvalu. C
th h cng s n New Zealand mt ngy no . iu ph
thuc vo vic tnh hnh s xu n mc no. (...) Ti khng bit liu
Tuvalu c bin mt khng, nhng ti khng ngh mi ngi s c
tng lai Tuvalu, mi chuyn s tr nn ti t.
102
Mc d cc phng tin thng tin u ni rng mt tha thun ti
nh c quy m quc gia c k kt gia New Zealand v Tuva-
l9
lu, ng thi Tavalu cng c tha thun v di c lao ng vi New
Zealand, song hin vn cha c nhng chnh sch r rng tip
nhn ngi dn o Thi Bnh Dng b mt ch do mc nc bin
dng. Cc cuc phng vn thc a cho thy quan im khc nhau v
vn di dn, t cch nhn ph bin nht l cam chu v tuyt vng,
cho n hy vng rng cng ng quc t s chung tay chng li bin
i kh hu v ngn chn s dng ln ca mc nc bin v cc h
qu nguy hi khc. Mt s ngi tin rng cc cuc m phn v kh
hu nhm to qu thch ng c th to ngun ti chnh h tr di c
do bin i kh hu v mc nc bin dng:
Cng ng quc t cn phi lm g gip chng ti. Chng
ti khng c trch nhim trong vic gy ra tnh trng bin i kh
hu, v vy t nc ca chng ti khng th bin mt. Cc quc
gia khc phi gii quyt vn ny.
103
T khi gia nhp Lin Hip Quc vo nm 2000, Tuvalu ng vai
tr tch cc trong Hip hi cc Quc o Nh (AOSIS) v s dng
cc din n quc t nh cc cuc m phn v kh hu nhm thu
ht s quan tm ca th gii n nhng kh nng tn thng c
th ca cc quc o nh v nhu cu xc nh cc gii php thch
nghi hp l ng lc.
Qun o Maldive
Maldive l mt quc o san h vng vi 1.200 hn o v 298.968
dn c theo s liu nm 2006.
104
im cao nht ca qun o cao
2,3 mt so vi mc nc bin v c coi l quc gia nm v tr
thp nht trn th gii. Th Male ca Maldive tp trung ti 35%
dn s ca c nc v l mt trong nhng thnh ph c mt dn
s cao nht th gii. Thnh ph c bao quanh bi mt bc tng
bin cao 3,5 mt.
105
Bc tng ny cu thnh ph khi thm ha
sng thn nm 2004.
106
Nh nhng g c th hin trn bn , nu mc nc bin dng
ln mt mt, nc s nhn chm c s h tng v e da khu vc
sinh sng ca ngi dn. iu ny t ra nguy c ln i vi ngnh
du lch ni y, ngnh cng nghip cho ngun thu quan trng nht
ca Maldive. Nhng y khng phi l nguy c duy nht. Chnh
ph Maldive xc nh mt lot cc thit hi nh mt t, xi
mn b bin, c s h tng, khu nh c ca ngi dn, cc rn
san h, nng nghip, an ninh lng thc v ngun nc b ph
hy trong khi chnh ph thiu nng lc thch nghi (c v ti chnh
v k thut).
107
Tng thng mi ca Maldive, ng Mohamed Anni
Nasheed, to ra cc chin dch quc t nm 2008 vi khu hiu
K hoch o An ton bao gm k hoch ti nh c cho cc hn
o nh t dn c hn ti nhng hn o ln hn, an ton hn, c
h thng phng th b bin tt hn. K hoch ny thm ch cn
hng ti kh nng ti nh c cho ton b c dn Maldive ti mt
t nc khc nh n hoc Iceland.
i din thng trc ca Maldive ti Lin Hip Quc, ng H.E.
Ahmed Khaleel cho bit: Di c v ti nh c t o nh sang o
ln tr thnh mt nhu cu bc thit i vi s pht trin v sinh
tn ca chng ti.
108
tm ra nhng gii php thch nghi cho khong 40 quc gia m
s tn vong ang b e da nng n bi hin tng nc bin dng
th s hp tc v h tr quc t l rt cn thit. Trong vng m
phn v kh hu gn y ti Poznan, Ba Lan (COP 14), mt nghin
cu vin pht biu: Qu trnh nghin cu thc a ca chng ti
trn khp th gii cho thy c rt t ngi c th di c sang nc
khc phn ln h buc phi bng lng vi mt im n c th
c. iu ny cng i hi cc quc gia bt tay hp tc vi nhau,
c bit l cc nc ang pht trin.
109

o nh ang pht trin, mc nc bin dng c th s nhn chm
ton b cc quc gia c ch quyn. Qu trnh ti nh c c th l mt
gii php thch nghi trng tm v lu di. Tuy nhin, nu ton b cc
quc gia c ch quyn b nhn chm khi mc nc bin dng th vic
ti nh c s t ra nhng vn a chnh tr quan trng v nhu cu
cn c mt s hp tc quc t hiu qu cng tr nn bc thit.
20
T nm 2004, CARE lm vic vi ngi dn pha Nam Bangladesh gip h thch nghi vi nn lt ang ngy cng tng c v tn
sut v mc . Cc hot ng h tr bao gm c vic to ra cc vn ni trn cc m lc bnh (eichornia crassipes). Bm vo lc bnh,
vn rau c th dng ln theo nc v nh vy m bo c ngun lng thc v thu nhp quan trng ca ngi dn.
2l
4. Kt lun
Bin i kh hu ang xy ra vi tc v cng mnh hn d
on ban u.
110,111
Gii hn an ton v kh nh knh trong kh quyn
c th thp hn nhiu so vi mc chng ta tng v chng ta
c l ang ti gn hn vi im bng pht khng th trnh khi.
112

Trong khi , lng pht thi kh CO
2
ton cu ang tng vi mc
v tc ngy cng cao.
113
Cc n lc nhm gim pht thi u
qu t i v mun mng. Do , nhng thch thc v quan im
chnh tr phc tp ca chin lc thch nghi v ca chin lc gim
nh ang gp nhau ti trung tm ca cc tranh lun v chnh sch.
Mt trong nhng vn quan trng nht cn bn n l bin i
kh hu s nh hng n s di c v mt ch ca con ngi nh
th no v chng ta s lm g trc tnh trng .
Bo co mang nhiu thng ip c a ra t nhng bng chng
thc t v cc bn , trong nhng im sau y l c bit
quan trng:
Bin ng mi trng, tnh trng mt ch v di c
L do di c ca con ngi l rt phc tp nhng thng phn nh
s kt hp ca cc tc nhn mi trng, kinh t, x hi v/hoc
chnh tr. nh hng ca s bin i v mi trng i vi tnh
trng di c l rt r rng v ang ngy cng tng ln. Cc c tnh
hin ti v d on tng lai v s ngi buc phi di c ang rt
cch bit, dao ng t 25 n 50 triu vo nm 2010 cho ti gn
700 triu vo nm 2050. T chc Di c Quc t (IOM) a ra mt
con s khong gia l 200 triu ngi di c do mi trng vo
nm 2050.
Cc dng sinh k v s di c ca con ngi
Bin ng mi trng dng nh ang chm ngi cho cc lung
di c lu di v n hy hoi cc dng sinh k ph thuc vo h sinh
thi (nh canh tc s dng nc ma, chn th gia sc v nh bt
c), trong khi cc gii php thay th a phng rt hn ch. S
hy hoi cc ngun ti nguyn t, nc v rng, cng nh nhng
nh hng trc tip ca bin i kh hu (v d thay i m hnh
ma) ang ng vai tr quan trng trong cc phng thc di c
ca con ngi.
Kh nng tn thng cc mc khc nhau
Kh nng tn thng ca con ngi trc bin ng mi trng
phn nh s kt hp gia mc b nh hng, tnh nhy cm v
nng lc thch nghi. Kt qu l, mc tn thng l rt khc bit
gia cc quc gia, cc cng ng v thm ch l gia cc h gia
nh. V d, mc b nh hng ca ngi ngho i vi bin i
kh hu thng ln hn cc nhm khc bi cc quyn lc kinh t v
chnh tr y h n sng ti nhng a bn c nguy c cao (v d,
sn i dc d gp phi l t). Trong khi , mt trong s nhng
nhn t quan trng nht to nn nng lc thch nghi ca con ngi
l vic h tip cn v kim sot cc ngun lc t nhin, con ngi,
x hi, vt cht, chnh tr v ti chnh. S thiu ht r rng nhng
yu t ny l l do chnh gii thch v sao ngi ngho c bit l
nhng nhm x hi b thit thi d tn thng bi nh hng
ca bin i kh hu hn nhng nhm khc.
Ph n phi u tranh vi v vn cn tr v nng lc thch nghi. Vai
tr v gii cng nh cc phong tc v ro cn vn ha ang khin
hu ht ph n v nhng gia nh c ph n lm ch kh khn hn
khi mun di c ng ph vi bin ng mi trng.
Hnh ng ca chnh ph v cc nguy c
Mt s dng bin ng mi trng, bao gm nc bin dng v
bng tan, c th i hi hnh ng ca chnh ph quy m rng.
Tuy nhin, nhng ng thi can thip c th khin cho tnh trng
ca ngi dn khng kh hn m thm ch cn t hn so vi trc.
V d, nh cp mc 3.3 ca bo co ny, chnh ph Vit Nam
ang thc hin ti nh c cho mt s ngi dn sng vng b e
da bi xi mn b sng, l lt v triu cng. Mc d s can thip
ny l ng ca ngi, qu trnh ti nh c c th s phi tr nhng
gi cao do s mai mt v vn ha, mt mt v sinh k, gim tip
cn vi cc dch v x hi v mt i cc mng li vic lm. Tm
li, nhng phn ng vi bin ng mi trng t trn xung c
th mang theo nhng nguy c thc s, trong c nguy c thch
nghi na vi.
Tm quan trng ca qu trnh thch nghi tng th, minh bch v
c trch nhim
Phm vi ca cc bin ng mi trng hin nay v d on trong
tng lai i hi vai tr quan trng ca cc chnh quyn trung
ng. Tuy nhin, kinh nghim cho thy cc li ch c th c ti
a ha v cc nguy c c th gim ti thiu nu cc nhm cng
ng d b tn thng c tham gia ng ngha vo qu trnh lp
k hoch, trin khai, theo di v nh gi cc hot ng ng ph
vi bin i mi trng. iu ny a n mt trong nhng kt
lun quan trng nht ca bo co ny. C th l, phm vi v mc
ca cc thch thc m chng ta ang phi vt qua c th ln cha
tng c, song chng ta sn sng i mt vi chng bng nhng
ngun lc sn c nh kin thc, k nng v s hp tc nhm bo v
chn gi tr v cc quyn c bn ca nhng ngi ang b e da
bi nguy c mt ch do bin ng mi trng.
22
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24
75. Vorosmarty v cc cng s. 2009. Xem ch thch 26 trn; v Usapdin, T. 2008.
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76. McGranahan v cc cng s. 2007. Xem ch thch 7 trn.
77. T chc Mi trng v Pht trin ca Ph n (WEDO), ABANTU for Development
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79. Poncelet 2009. Xem ch thch 75 trn.
80. UNEP-GRID. Xem ch thch 23 trn.
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thng nht bi bin i kh hu v cc sc p mi trng khc. Nghin cu vin
thc a ca D n EACH-FOR nghin cu tnh hung ti Bangladesh lu rng
mt s hot ng nh nui tm c th l qu tn km c th xem l mt dng
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83. Lettenmaier 2000 trch dn trong White, I., ed. 2002. Water management in the
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Flood levels in Vietnam. Personal communication. D n UNU-EHS WISDOM.
84. Pancelet 2009: 17
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87. Dun, O. 2009. Linkages between fooding, migration and resettlement. Bo co ng-
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90. Hi ng Nhn dn Tnh An Giang. 2006. D n Xa nh trn knh rch nhm m
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92. Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler v J. Yan. 2007. The impact of sea
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94. Nh trn
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98. Aff, T. 2009. Bo co nghin cu tnh hung ti Ai Cp ca D n EACH-FOR. http://
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110. McCarthy, M. 2007. Earths natural defenses against climate change beginning to
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114. C th xem nh l mt dng m rng ca tnh tn thng c xc nh bi nguy
c gnh chu thin tai hoc i khi ch l nguy c c mt ng ch v ti ng thi
im xy ra mt dng thin tai nht nh. Xem Adamo, S. v de Sherbinin, A. (sp
xut bn). The impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of populations
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Th nghim ca i hc Princeton trin khai.
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116. Pfefer v cc nh nghin cu khc nm 2008 nhn ra rng mc nc bin dng
khong 2m vo nm 2100 l rt c th di iu kin tan bng t nhin nhng ch
khi tt c cc iu kin ny tng nhanh ti mc cc im. Xem Pfefer, W., J. Harper,
and S. ONeel. 2008. Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century
sea-level rise. Science, 321(5994): 1340-1343.
25
Ph lc K thut: D liu v phng php
Cng vic thc a
Suy thoi mi trng do con ngi gy ra c ghi nhn trong rt
nhiu ti liu cng b. Bin ng mi trng gy ra bi hot
ng ca con ngi c tho lun nhiu nht l bin i kh hu,
bn cnh cc thay i mi trng khc nh thoi ha t, mt rng
v sa mc ha. Ngy nay con ngi cn phi i mt vi nhng
bin ng ln v x hi, chnh tr v kinh t, kt qu ca s ton cu
ha v thay i cng ngh.
Cho d c nhng thng tin thc t v bin ng mi trng, thin
tai, di c v pht trin kinh t, song kin thc c h thng da trn
kinh nghim thc tin v mi lin h gia cc qu trnh bin ng
mi trng v di c dng nh vn cn rt t. kha lp khong
trng ny, y ban Chu u ti tr cho D n EACH-FOR nhm
tm hiu vai tr ca bin ng mi trng trong vic hnh thnh cc
quyt nh di c. D n c thc hin thng qua mt ci nhn tng
qut v phn tch c h thng v cc tin trnh suy thoi mi trng
v t nhin do con ngi gy ra, cng nh cc bi cnh kinh t - x
hi v nhn khu hc ti vng nghin cu ca d n. D n tin
hnh nghin cu thc a ti 23 a phng trn th gii.
Lp bn
Cc bn trong bo co ny tch hp cc d liu a l nh dn
s (quy m, mt v phn b), thy hc (cc lu vc sng chu
, cc chu th tp trung ng dn c), mc nc bin dng d
on (1 v 2 mt), nng nghip (t canh tc dng nc ma v
khu vc ng c chn th gia sc), cc d on thay i v lng
nc chy b mt v lc xoy vi quy m t cp chu lc n cc
o nh. Nhng c s d liu ny c thu thp t nhiu ngun
khc nhau v c tch hp bng k thut GIS. Tnh ton v cc khu
vc dn s c nguy c b tc ng c tnh bng cc phng php
thng k vng. Thng tin b sung v ngun d liu v phng
php nghin cu p dng c th xem thm di y.
Vic lng ghp cc thin tai xy ra trong hin ti v d on thin
tai trong tng lai vo bn cc khu vc dn c l nhm cung
cp nhn dng ban u v vng dn c v cc sinh k c nguy c
chu nh hng ca bin i kh hu. Lp kh nng tn thng
114

u tin ny c th c xem nh mt phn ca bi cnh dn n
quyt nh di c.
Cc b d liu
Danh sch cc b d liu c s dng lp bn c th tm thy
di y. Mt vn cn c lu bt c ni no d on v bin
i kh hu c p dng l s dng m hnh v kch bn no, cc
bin c trng no (v d, nhit hay lng ma tuyt) l thch hp
nht. Khi tha nhn rng nhit ang thay i s mang li nhng
nh hng a dng i vi nhiu vng nhit i v cn nhit i, c
bit khi nhit c th tng qu sc chu ng i vi mt s ma
v nht nh, chng ti thy rng s thay i v lng ma tuyt c
l s nh hng mnh m hn n cc dng sinh k.
Khi gi nh hnh thnh, cc la chn b sung khc cng c
a ra. Trong cc bn th hin cc xu th kh ha, chng ti
la chn s dng d liu v thay i d tnh trong lng nc chy
b mt ca Nohara v cc cng s (2006) c cng b trong Bo
co nh gi ln th t ca IPCC (AR4), bo co tng hp ca Nhm
nghin cu 2. Nhng d liu ny c to ra nh s dng kt hp
nhiu m hnh kh hu ph hp vi m hnh v lng ma thay i
tr i bc hi c th thy trong cc phng php tip cn bng
m hnh tng hp khc.
115
S kt hp nhiu m hnh thng ng
tin cy hn cc m hnh hot ng c lp v n s trung bnh ha
cc thi cc. S thay i ca lng nc chy b mt c chn
lm i lng thay v s thay i v lng ma n thun, hoc
lng ma tr i lng bc hi (P-E), bi v lng nc chy b mt
l lng nc c sn phc v cho nhiu mc ch khc nhau ca
con ngi nh pht trin ma v, ti tiu v c cho h sinh thi
nc ngt vn rt quan trng i vi ngh thy sn nc ngt. Tuy
nhin, nh ni, d s dng i lng nc chy b mt hay P-E
th cc m hnh cng kh ging nhau: (1) cc khu vc m t tr
nn m t hn; (2) cc khu vc kh hn tr nn kh hn hn; v
(3) cc khu vc kh hn cn nhit i ang m rng v pha cc.
V nc bin dng, kch bn AR4 ca IPCC d on nc bin s
dng khong 0,8-1m trong th k ny do hin tng tan bng
nhiu hn l do s m rng ca cc lung kh nng. Tuy nhin,
nghin cu gn y cho rng mc nc bin cn c th dng ln
n gn 2m.
116
V l do ny, chng ti a ra 2 mc l 1m v 2m
tng khu vc ng bng c cp ti phn 4.3.
Di y l chi tit cc b d liu s dng cho cc bn ca
bo co v cc phng php tnh ton bn tng ng:
Bn 1: Bng tan v cc h thng ti tiu chnh chu
Bn ny kt hp d liu v sng bng ca Armstrong v cc
cng s (2009) vi cc mng li sng ngi ca ESRI (2008) v cc
vng c ti tiu ca FAO (2007) v FAO & IIASA (2006). D liu
bin gii lu vc sng (lu vc tiu nc) c ly t USGS Hydro-
SHEDS 2007 (Lehner v cc cng s, 2006). D liu v khu vc
th, i din cho cc khu vc th vo khong nm 1995, c ly
t CIESIN (2009a).
Tng din tch cc khu vc c ti tiu v tng dn s trong cc
lu vc tiu nc khc nhau - ph thuc vo lng nc chy b
mt t sng bng thu c nh tng hp cc thng k theo vng
th hin bng cc ng k cho nh du mi lu vc tiu nc,
s dng k thut Phn tch Khng gian trong ArcMap 9.3.
Bn 2: Mexico v Trung M: Di c nh mt chin lc ng
ph vi hn hn v thin tai
Bn ny kt hp d liu v thay i lng nc chy b mt ca
Nohara v cc cng s (2006) c s dng trong Bo co nh
gi ln th t ca IPCC. Bn mt dn s c ly t CIESIN
(2009b). D liu v lng nc chy b mt c ly t Fekete v
cc cng s (2000). D liu v tnh bn vng ca t nng nghip
dng nc ma c ly t FAO (2007). D liu v tn sut bo lc
xoy c ly t CHRR v mt s t chc khc (2005).
Bn 3: Ty Phi: Sc p ln sinh k nng thn v tnh trng
di c tip din
Bn ny kt hp d liu v s thay i lng nc chy b mt
ca Nohara v cc cng s (2006) s dng trong Bo co nh
gi ln th t ca IPCC. Cc ng k cho th hin s thay i
lng nc chy b mt c phc ha nh s dng phng php
da trn ng qut chun (mi ng k cho mi c gn cho
gi tr ln nht ca trc ), v th n m rng ra hoc vt qu
c ng b bin v cho hnh nh r nt hn. Bn mt dn
s c ly t CIESIN (2009b). D liu v lng nc chy b mt
c ly t Fekete v cc cng s (2000). D liu v din tch t
nng nghip ph hp vi li canh tc s dng nc ma c ly
t FAO (2007). D liu v din tch t ng c c ly t Raman-
kutty v cc cng s (2008). Bn ng c th hin cc khu vc
c ng c t 70% tr ln.
Cc bn 4, 5 v 6: Lt li v nc bin dng nhng vng
ng bng c mt dn s cao: sng Hng, sng
M Kng v sng Nile.
Cc bn ny kt hp nhng b d liu sau y: M t a l ca
cc khu vc ng bng c ly t Kettner (2009). Bn mt
dn s ca nm 2000 c ly t CIESIN (2009b). D liu v cc khu
vc thnh th c ly t CIESIN (2009a). D liu v mc nc bin
dng c pht trin t b d liu 90m Shuttle Radar Topography
26
Mission (SRTM) ca CGIAR (Jarvis v cc cng s 2008). D liu v
khu vc din tch t trng trt c ly t Ramankutty v cc cng
s (2008). D liu v tn sut bo lc xoy c ly t CHRR v mt
s t chc khc (2005).
i vi bn vng sng Hng, chng ti s dng bn l lt
ca trn lt nm 2007 do UNOSAT cung cp (vi s gip ca
Einar Bjorgo v Luca DellOro). Vi bn vng M Kng, chng
ti lng vo bn vng lt nm 2000 do C quan Theo di Lt
Dartmouth (2006) cung cp.
c c c tnh v s dn nm 2000 b nh hng khi mc
nc bin dng ln 1 v 2 mt, chng ti to ra cc ng k
vng ng bng ly t Kettner (2009), sau s dng ng k
dn s nm 2000 rt ra t CIESIN (2009c). S dng thng k theo
vng ca ArcMap 9.3, chng ti tnh ton thng k cho vng
dn c s b ngp chm khi mc nc bin dng ln 1 v 2 mt da
trn d liu SRTM ca CGIAR (Jarvis v cc cng s, 2008).
Cc bn 7-8: Nc bin dng v cc quc o nh ang
pht trin
D liu v hin tng nc bin dng c pht trin t b d liu
90m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) ca CGIAR (Jarvis v
cc cng s 2008) v c chuyn sang s KML. Cc hnh nh
o, th ca qun o Maldive (Male) v ca Tuvalu (Funafuti)
c ti xung t Google Earth.
Ti liu tham kho d liu
Armstrong, R., B. Raup, S.J.S. Khalsa, R. Barry, J. Kargel, C. Helm v
H. Kiefer. 2009. GLIMS glacier database. Boulder, Colorado USA:
Trung tm D liu Quc gia v Tuyt v Bng. D liu k thut s
c ti: http://www.each-for.eu/http://glims.colorado.edu/glacier-
data/glacier data.php
Trung tm Mng li Quc t v Thng tin Khoa hc Tri t (CIE-
SIN), Trng i hc Columbia; Vin Nghin cu Chnh sch Lng
thc Quc t (IFPRI); Ngn hng Th gii; v Trung tm Quc t v
Nng nghip vng Nhit i (CIAT). 2009a. D n Lp bn vng
Nng thn Thnh th ton cu (GRUMP), Beta Version: Urban Ex-
tents. Palisades, NY: Trung tm D liu Kinh t - x hi v ng dng
(SEDAC), Trng i hc Columbia. Sp c ti:
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=81044http://se-
dac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw
SIN), i hc Columbia; Vin Nghin cu Chnh sch Lng thc
Quc t (IFPRI); Ngn hng Th gii; v Trung tm Quc t v Nng
nghip vng Nhit i (CIAT). 2009a. D n Lp bn vng Nng
thn-Thnh th ton cu (GRUMP), Beta Version: Population Den-
sity Grids. Palisades, NY: Trung tm D liu Kinh t - X hi v ng
dng (SEDAC), i hc Columbia. Sp c ti:
http://www.wedo.org/fles/HSN%20Study%20Final%20May%202
0,%20 2008.pdfhttp://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw
SIN), i hc Columbia; Vin Nghin cu Chnh sch Lng thc
Quc t (IFPRI); Ngn hng Th gii v Trung tm Quc t v Nng
nghip vng Nhit i (CIAT). 2009a. D n Lp bn vng Nng
thn-Thnh th ton cu (GRUMP), Beta Version: Population Grids.
Palisades, NY: Trung tm D liu Kinh t-X hi v ng dng (SE-
DAC), i hc Columbia. Sp c ti:
http://www.unfpa.org/upload/lib_pub_fle/487_flename_migra-
tion_report_2005. pdfhttp://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw
C quan Theo di Lt Dartmouth. 2006. Bn bo lt ti vng
sng M Kng. Cc vng lt nm 2000. C ti: http://www.dart-
mouth. edu/~foods/Atlas.html.
Vin Nghin cu cc H thng Mi trng (ESRI). 2008. D liu v
Bn [DVD]. Redlands, CA: ESRI.
Fekete, B., C. Vorosmarty v W. Grabs. 2000. Global Composite Run-
of Fields Based on Observed River Discharge and Simulated Water
Balances. i hc New Hampshire/Trung tm D liu Lng nc
chy b mt Ton cu (UNH/GRDC) Composite Runof Fields (v.1).
C ti http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/.
T chc Nng Lng Lin Hip Quc (FAO) v Vin Phn tch H
thng ng dng Quc t (IIASA). 2006. Mapping biophysical fac-
tors that infuence agricultureal production and rural vulnerabil-
ity, bi H. van Vethuizen v cc cng s, Environmental and Natu-
ral Resources Series S 11, Rome: FAO.
T chc Nng Lng Lin Hip Quc (FAO). 2007. Combined
suitability of currently available land for pasture and rainfed
crops (low input level) (FGGD). C ti: http://www.fao.org:80/
geonetwork/srv/en/resources.get?id=14176&fname=Map6_
65.zip&access=private.
Jarvis, A., H.I. Reuter, A. Nelson, E. Guevara, 2008. Hole-flled SRTM
for the globe Version 4, CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database. Available
at http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
Kettner, A. 2009. Delta masks for major deltas of the world. Trng
i hc Colorado-Boulder, Community Surface Dynamics Model-
ing System.
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., Jarvis, A. 2006. HydroSHEDS Technical Docu-
mentation. World Wildlife Fund US, Washington, DC. C ti http://
hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov.
Nohara, D., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka v T. Oki. 2006. Impact of climate
change on river runof. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7: 1076-1089.
D liu c c t cc tc gi thng qua trao i c nhn.
Ramankutty, N., A.T. Evan, C. Monfreda, J.A. Foley. 2008. Farming
the Planet. 1: The Geographical Distribution of Global Agricultural
Lands in the Year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue
1. D liu c c t cc tc gi thng qua trao i c nhn.
Vin o to v Nghin cu UN (UNITAR), Chng trnh ng dng
Vn hnh V tinh (UNOSAT). 2009. Bn v v.v c ti: http://un-
osat.web.cern.ch/unosat/asp/prod_free.asp t UNITAR/ UNOSAT,
Geneva.
Ti liu ny c th ti v t website ca Trung tm Con ngi v Thin nhin www.nature.org.vn

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