PGS.TS. Trn Thanh Xun - PGS.TS. Trn Thc - TS.

Hong Minh Tuyn

tc ng ca
BIN I KH HU
N
TI NGUYN NC

VIET NAM

Nh Xut bn Khoa hc - K thut

Danh mc t vit tt

AMR

Phng php thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho

cc lu vc sng/Adaptation Methodology for river basin

ATN

p thp nhit i

BKH

Bin i kh hu

BSCL

ng bng sng Cu Long

TM

ng Thp Mi

ENSO

El Nino - L khi nim ch hai hin tng El Nino/Lanina v

Sourthern Oscillation (Dao ng nam) Nam bn cu.

GCM

M hnh Hon lu Ton cu / Global Circulation Models/

Climate Models or General Circulation Models

IMHEN

Vin khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng

(Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment)

IPCC

y ban Lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

KH KTTVMT

Khoa hc Kh tng thy vn Mi trng

KNK

Kh nh knh

KTXH

Kinh t - X hi

LVS

Lu vc sng

MAGICC/SCENGEN

M hnh nh gi tng quan KNK vi bin i kh hu

(Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate
Change/ Regional Climate SCENario GENerator)

MARD

B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn

(Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development)

MONRE

B Ti nguyn v Mi trng

(Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment)

MOST

B Khoa hc v Cng ngh (Ministry of Science and Technology)

MRC

y hi sng M Cng Quc t (Mekong River Commission)

NAO

Dao ng Bc i Ty Dng (North Atlantic Oscillation)

PNA

Thi Bnh Dng Bc M (Pacific - North American)

PRECIS

M hnh Kh hu khu vc nghin cu tc ng

(Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies)

QPPL

Quy phm php lut

RCM

M hnh Hon lu khu vc (Regional Circulation Models)

ROMS

M hnh i dng khu vc (Regional Ocean Model System)

SEA START

Trung tm ng Nam v Phn tch, Nghin cu v Hun luyn

(Southeast Asia SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training)
5

SLR

Nc bin dng (Sea Level Rise)

TCNM

Tiu chun nc mt

TGLX

T gic Long Xuyn

TNMT

Ti nguyn mi trng

TNN

Ti nguyn nc

UNFCCC

Cng c Khung ca Lin Hp Quc v bin i kh hu

(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

UNICEF

Qu Nhi ng Lin Hp Quc

(United Nations Chieldrens Fund)

Vin KH KTTV& MT Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng

XTN

Xoy thun nhit i

Li ni u

ri t ang nng dn ln do nng cc loi kh nh knh

trong bu kh quyn ang c xu hng tng dn ln dn
n bin i kh hu. Bin i kh hu , ang v s tc
ng n mi trng t nhin, mi lnh vc kinh t - x hi, n
mi ngi trn tri t. V th, bin i kh hu l vn kinh t,
a l v chnh tr trng tm ca loi ngi trong th k XXI.
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng quc gia chu nh hng ca bin
i kh hu nghim trng nht. Bin i kh hu s tc ng nng
n n i sng, sn xut, mi trng, h tng c s, sc khe
cng ng nc ta. Chnh v vy, Nh nc coi vic xy dng
chin lc tng th ng ph vi bin i kh hu v nc bin
dng l vn sng cn v sm xy dng Chng trnh mc
tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu.
Mt trong nhng lnh vc chu tc ng nghim trng ca bin
i kh hu l ti nguyn nc, nht l ti nguyn nc ma v
ti nguyn nc mt. Do , ng ph vi bin i kh hu
trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc v cc lnh vc c lin quan, cc
nh hoch nh chnh sch, quy hoch v qun l ti nguyn nc
cng nh cc ngnh c lin quan khc cn phi xt n kh nng
tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc.
Cun sch ny xin gii thiu nhng thng tin c bn v ti nguyn
nc, bin i kh hu, tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti
nguyn nc v nhu cu nc Vit Nam. Cun sch s dng
7

kt qu nghin cu ca D n Tc ng ca bin i kh hu
ln ti nguyn nc v cc bin php thch ng do Vin Khoa
hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng thc hin vi s ti tr
ca DANIDA v S qun an Mch ti Vit Nam.
Cun sch chuyn kho ny c th dng lm ti liu tham kho
cho cc nh qun l, cc nh khoa hc, cc nh gio, sinh vin,
hc sinh v nhng ngi quan tm khc.
Cc tc gi xin chn thnh cm n B Ti nguyn v Mi trng,
Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, cc nh khoa
hc ch o v gip trong qu trnh bin son v xin cm n
UNDP ti tr xut bn cun sch ny thng qua d n CBCC.
Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc l mt vn
mi m v phc tp. Nhng kt qu nghin cu, nh gi v tc
ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc Vit Nam c
trnh by trong cun sch ny mi l bc u, khng trnh khi
nhng hn ch v thiu st. Cc tc gi mong nhn c s gp
chn thnh ca cc c gi.

Cc tc gi

CHNG 1

TI NGUYN NC MA

1.1. PHN B CA LNG MA NM TRONG

LNH TH
Nh bit, c im ch yu ca ti nguyn nc ma l phn b
rt khng u trong khng gian v bin i mnh theo thi gian.
S bin i theo thi gian ca lng ma nm biu hin s dao
ng gia cc nm v phn phi khng u trong nm. S bin i
trong thi k nhiu nm hay cn gi l s dao ng gia cc nm
ca lng ma do lng ma hng nm thay i, dao ng xung
quanh gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm v thng biu hin bi cc pha
ma nhiu (ln hn gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm) v pha ma t
(nh hn gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm) v to thnh cc chu k ma.
c im ny c th nhn thy t ng tch ly chun sai lng
ma nm ti mt s trm kh tng c chui s liu quan trc trn
50-60 nm (hnh 1.1).
c im phn b khng u ca lng ma nm trong lnh th
nc ta c phn nh qua bn ng ng tr lng ma nm.
Hnh 1.2 l s ng ng tr lng ma nm trung bnh giai
on 1977 - 2008 trn phm vi c nc. y cn ch ra rng,
chui s liu quan trc cc yu t kh tng thy vn ti cc trm l
khng ng u, c bit l gia cc trm hai min Bc v Nam
(t v tuyn 17 tr vo). Nu nh hu ht cc trm kh tng thy
vn min Bc c xy dng v bt u hot ng t cui thp
nin 50, thp nin 60 ca th k XX th hu ht cc trm min
Nam c thnh lp t cui thp nin 70, u thp nin 80. Do ,
phn ln cc trm o ma trong c nc u c s liu quan trc
ng b trong giai on 1977-2008. Tuy nhin, lng ma nm
trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 so vi lng ma nm trung bnh
thi k nhiu nm ti phn ln cc trm u nh hn.
10

T hnh 1.2 cho thy, do nh hng ca a hnh v v tr a l nn

lng ma nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 (Xo) phn b rt
khng u trong lnh th Vit Nam vi c im ma nhiu trn
cc sn ni n gi ma ng Nam v Ty Nam v ma t trn
cc sn ni, cao nguyn, thung lng v ven bin khut gi. Do ,
gi tr Xo trn lnh th Vit Nam bin i trong phm vi kh rng,
t (500-600) mm vng ven bin Ninh Thun, Bnh Thun n
trn (4.000 5.000) mm mt s khu vc ni cao.
Trung tm ma ln nht (4.000-5.000) mm xut hin mt
s khu vc, nh khu vc ni Nam Chu Lnh (Qung Ninh),
Vm sng Chy (khu vc Bc Quang), vng ni Hi Vn, Tr
My, Ba T. Ngoi ra, cn mt s trung tm ma tng i ln
Xo = (3.000 4.000) mm, xut hin vng ni cao Hong Lin
Sn - Pu Si Lung, vng ni bin gii Vit Trung t ngn sng
thuc tnh Lai Chu, sn pha ng dy Trng Sn thuc tnh
H Tnh, Qung Bnh, Qung Tr (Voi Mp), T.T.Hu (A Li) ,
o Ngang, vng ni Ngc Linh tnh Kon Tum v vng ni Ch
-Yang- Sin tnh c Lc v Lang Biang tnh Lm ng [25].
Mt s trung tm ma t xut hin cc khu vc di y:
- Xo di 1.000 mm xut hin ven bin Ninh Thun v Bnh
Thun, trong c mt s ni Xo=(500-600) mm, nh khu
vc C N, Ninh Thun;
- Xo = (1.000-1.200) mm xut hin mt s thung lng sng hay
cao nguyn khut gi ma m, nh thung lng sng K Cng
tnh Lng Sn, thung lng thng ngun sng M, cao nguyn
Sn La, Mc Chu tnh Sn La, cc cao nguyn vi ng
Vn, Mo Vc tnh H Giang, thung lng trung lu sng Ba,
khu vc ven bin Khnh Ha v khu vc nm gia sng Tin v
sng Hu tnh ng Thp - An Giang
11

Hnh 1.1a: ng tch ly chun sai lng ma nm ti

mt s trm kh tng.

Hnh 1.1b: ng tch ly chun sai lng ma nm ti

mt s trm kh tng.

12

Hnh 1.2. S ng ng tr lng ma nm trung bnh

giai on 1977-2008 trong lnh th Vit Nam [25].

13

1.2. TNG LNG MA NM

Lng ma trung bnh nm trung bnh giai on 1977 - 2008
trn ton lnh th nc ta khong 1960 mm hay 649 km3/
nm. Lng ma nm phn b khng u gia cc h thng
sng (bng 1.1). H thng sng Thu Bn c lng ma trung
bnh lu vc ln nht (2.970 mm), tip n h thng sng
ng Nai (2.160 mm) v hai h thng sng Hng, M Cng
(1.870 mm), nh nht h thng sng K Cng - Bng (1490 mm),
tng i nh hai h thng sng M (1.630 mm) v Thi Bnh
(1.590 mm). Trong hnh 1.3 l s phn b ca lng ma nm
trung bnh thi k 1977-2008 gia cc h thng sng trong lnh th
Vit Nam.
Bng 1.1: Lng ma nm trung bnh giai on 1977 - 2008 trong cc h thng
sng (trn phn lu vc trong lnh th Vit Nam) [25]
Th t

H thng sng /
sng c lp

1
2
3
3
5
10
15
20
21
21
22

K Cng - Bng Giang

Thi Bnh
Hng
M
C
Thu Bn
Ba
ng Nai
S San-Xr pc
M Cng
BSCL
C nc

Din tch
lu vc trong
nc * (km2)
11280
15180
72700
17600
17630
10350
13900
37400
30100
35900
331212

(*) Ghi ch : Din tch lu vc trong lnh th Vit Nam.

14

Lng ma nm trung
bnh giai on 1977-2008
mm
km3
1490
11,68
1590
24,14
1870
135,95
1630
26,89
1940
34,14
2970
30,74
1740
24,14
2290
85,65
1870
56,28
1850
66,42
1960
649,18

Do s khc nhau v ln ca lu vc v gi tr Xo trung

bnh lu vc nn tng lng ma nm trung bnh giai on
1977-2008 (Wo,m ) cng khc nhau rt ln gia cc
h thng sng. H thng sng Hng c Wo,m ln nht
(135,95 km3, chim 20,94% tng lng ma nm ca c nc),
sau n h thng sng M Cng (129,2 km3,chim 18,9%, k
c cc sng nhnh cc tnh in Bin, Qung Tr v T.T.Hu),
ri n h thng sng ng Nai (85,65 km3, 13,19%), t nht
h thng sng K Cng - Bng (16,9 km3, ch chim 1,80%), ri
n hai h thng sng Thi Bnh v sng Ba c Wo,m xp x nhau
(24,2 km3), ch chim 3,72% (hnh 1.4) [25].

Hnh 1.4: T l % tng lng ma

nm trung bnh giai on 19772008 ca cc h thng sng so vi
ton b lnh th Vit Nam.
Hnh 1.3: Phn b ca lng ma
nm trung bnh thi k 19772008 ca cc h thng sng trong
lnh th Vit Nam.

15

1.3. PHN PHI MA TRONG NM

1.3.1. Thi gian xut hin ma ma, ma kh
Nh trn nu, mt trong nhng c im quan trng ca ma
nc ta l phn phi rt khng u trong nm. Hng nm, ma
bin i theo ma: ma ma v ma kh (ma ma t). Hai ma
ny xut hin khng ng thi gia cc vng. Theo ch tiu vt
trung bnh, tc ma ma l thi k gm cc thng lin tc c
lng ma thng bng hoc ln hn lng ma nm vi tn sut
xut hin t 50% tr ln [22, 25], th ma ma/ma kh trong cc
vng nc ta nh sau :
- Bc B: Ma ma thng bt u t thng V, VI v kt
thc vo thng IX, X; kt thc sm vo thng IX min ni,
vo thng X trung du, ng bng.
- Bc Trung B: Ma ma c xu th xut hin mun v ngn
dn t bc vo nam. Nu nh ma ma xut hin vo cc thng
V,VI - X, XI phn pha bc (lu vc cc sng M, C) v
mt s lu vc sng nhnh ca sng M Cng Qung Tr,
Tha Thin - Hu, th phn pha Nam ca vng t nam Ngh
An tr vo, ma ma xut hin mun vo cc thng IX, X-XII.
- Nam Trung B: Ma ma thng xut hin mun v
ngn nht so vi cc vng khc nc ta; vo cc thng IX
- XII phn ln cc ni, ring pha Ty tnh Qung Nam
xut hin vo thng VIII-XI v vo cc thng V-X Ninh
Thun - Bnh Thun.
16

- Ty Nguyn: Ma ma thng xut hin t thng V ko

di n thng X, XI phn ln cc ni, thm ch ko di n
thng XII khu vc pha ng (thng ngun cc sng: c
Bla, Ba, Krng Ana) do chu nh hng ca cc hnh th thi
tit gy ma ven bin Nam Trung B.
- Nam B: Ma ma thng bt u t thng V ko di n
thng X, XI.
Tip sau ma ma l ma kh. Ma kh thng xut hin vo cc
thng X, XI n thng IV Bc B, phn pha Bc ca Bc Trung
B, Ty Nguyn, cc Nam Trung B (Ninh Thun - Bnh Thun)
v Nam B; t thng XII, I n thng VII, VIII ven bin Trung
B (t nam Ngh An tr vo n Khnh Ha) v mt vi ni
Ty Nguyn.
Trong ma ma, ba thng lin tc c lng ma ln nht cng
khng ng thi xut hin trn phm vi c nc, vo cc thng VI
- VIII Bc B (cc h thng sng K Cng, Thi Bnh, Hng),
cc thng VII - IX thng ngun sng M, sng C, sng ng
Nai v phn ln cc sng Ty Nguyn; cc thng VIII - X
phn pha Nam ca Bc Trung B, thng lu sng Thu Bn,
trung thng lu sng Ba, sng ng Nai v ng bng sng Cu
Long, cc thng IX-XI ven bin min Trung t nam H Tnh
n Khnh Ha.
Thng c lng ma trung bnh thng ln nht cng xut hin
khng ng thi gia cc vng, vo thng VII hay VIII trn cc
sng Bc B, c xu th mun dn t bc vo nam ven bin
Trung B: thng VIII hay IX Thanh Ha, Ngh An; thng X t
H Tnh n Ph Yn v IX t Khnh Ha n Bnh Thun; thng
VIII Ty Nguyn v Nam B.
17

Trong ma kh, ba thng lin tc c lng ma trung bnh thng

nh nht thng xut hin sm vo cc thng XII, I-II Bc B
v phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B, Bc Ty Nguyn; cc thng
I - III Bc Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B; cc thng II - IV
ven bin Trung B, t H Tnh n Khnh Ha.
Lng ma trung bnh thng nh nht thng xut hin vo
cc thng XII Bc B, thng I Thanh Ha, Ngh An v Ty
Nguyn, mt s ni ng Nam B; thng II H Tnh, ven
bin Nam Trung B t Qung Ngi n Bnh Thun v ng
bng sng Cu Long; thng III khu vc ven bin min Trung
t Qung Bnh n Bnh nh.
Lng ma trung bnh thng trong thi k quan trc ti mt s
trm kh tng c a ra trong bng 1.2.
Cng cn ch ra rng, thi gian xut hin ma ma, ma kh
v cc giai on c trng khc nu trn l thi gian xut hin
trung bnh trong thi k quan trc. Thi gian xut hin ca cc
c trng ny trong mt nm c th no c th sm hay mun
hn thi gian xut hin trung bnh. Th d, ma ma / ma kh
ca mt nm no c th xut hin sm hay mun hn, di hay
ngn hn bnh thng khong 1- 3 thng, ty thuc vo s hot
ng ca cc hnh th thi tit gy ma.

1.3.2. T s phn phi lng ma trong nm

Lng ma ma ma: Lng ma ma ma chim ti 60-95%
tng lng ma nm, tng i ln (80-95%) Ty Nguyn v
18

Bng 1.2: Lng ma trung bnh thi k quan trc ti mt s trm kh tng [25]
TT

Trm

Thi k
quan trc

Lng ma trung bnh thng (mm)

I

II

III

IV

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XI

XII

Nm
(mm)

1 Lai Chu

1956-2009 30,7 37,6 61,1 134,8 271,1 436,7 472,2 372,6 152,2 86,2 48,8 24,4 2128,4

2 Sn La

1961-2009 17,9 26,2 48,6 121,5 181,0 243,1 260,7 262,4 132,0 62,9 34,6 13,8 1404,7

3 Sa Pa

1958-2009 68,1 81,4 104,8 214,8 355,2 389,6 469,1 455,4 309,5 201,5 105,1 61,3 2815,8

4 Yn Bi

1957-2009 34,4 43,8 73,3 127,7 213,1 268,3 313,4 356,3 274,9 164,6 59,2 25,8 1954,7

5 H Giang

1957-2009 39,0 43,4 64,5 103,8 302,9 445,3 548,2 422,4 230,5 155,5 83,2 36,5 2475,2

6 Tuyn Quang

1960-2009 23,2 28,5 52,5 113,5 219,1 267,4 286,5 305,0 181,8 124,6 45,8 16,7 1664,4

7 Cao Bng

1961-2005 25,0 25,7 49,0 85,2 184,4 250,1 267,0 254,1 131,6 80,9 41,7 22,1 1416,7

8 Lng Sn

1957-2009 31,8 35,2 49,4 89,7 168,8 202,9 239,4 223,8 140,6 75,8 37,6 19,0 1313,9

9 Bi Chy

1961-2006 22,2 25,1 41,5 86,4 178,5 295,9 337,4 434,0 267,6 150,4 38,0 19,1 1896,1

10 Thi Nguyn

1960-2009 24,2 32,4 61,0 116,1 244,0 308,4 421,1 340,4 235,8 132,6 51,5 23,0 1990,5

11 Vit Tr

1961-2009 25,0 33,2 43,3 100,2 183,9 247,1 254,0 271,1 180,2 143,2 56,5 18,7 1556 ,3

12 H Ni

1961-2009 19,6 26,3 45,8 98,1 184,5 256,1 274,8 294,1 257,0 142,7 63,6 17,4 1680,1

13 Thanh Ho

1958-2009 20,6 23,6 41,7 61,1 143,3 184,5 194,1 275,6 380,3 266,5 77,5 26,2 1695,1

14 Tng Dng

1961-2008

15 Hng Kh

1961-2008 42,1 46,1 62,9 95,4 211,9 160,3 143,7 294,3 469,5 561,3 183,6 71,2 2342,4

16 ng Hi

1969-2008 57,3 40,3 39,6 51,0 121,0 84,0 73,0 166,1 434,0 634,8 333,4 118,0 2152,4

17 A Li

1973-2008 62,6 43,9 62,8 161,0 243,4 191,6 160,7 221,3 417,2 927,2 744,3 311,4 3547,4

18 Nng Sn

1976-2006 62,8 36,5 31,4 88,6 227,3 202,5 155,2 190,8 330,4 696,2 594,6 274,8 2891,0

19 Sn Ho

1977-2009 25,6 10,0 35,3 37,6 148,0 111,1 85,6 111,0 214,6 432,7 404,4 128,3 1744,1

20 Nha Trang

1961-2009 36,1 14,9 34,1 38,1 86,8 52,9 38,9 53,2 176,9 309,9 340,5 151,5 1333,8

21 Phan Rang

1979-2009

2,9

2,9 12,2 19,5 70,5 55,9 49,2 52,7 145,9 151,3 160,8 71,0 794,9

22 Phan Thit

1976-2009

0,5

0,2

23 c T

1978-2006

2,6

7,5 45,9 92,2 226,5 293,1 321,6 442,6 285,0 159,4 54,9 10,7 1942,0

24 Pleiku

1976-2009

3,1

5,6 28,1 89,5 236,9 337,2 384,0 485,5 374,2 200,1 67,9

25 Bun Ma Thut 1977-2009

3,7

4,3 30,9 87,0 241,4 247,0 250,1 338,8 334,6 221,3 94,7 20,5 1874,4

9,9 15,9 36,4 84,2 157,4 141,1 155,4 234,2 229,3 280,4 39,7 11,7 1395,7

7,0 30,2 161,6 142,5 184,5 173,7 190,6 146,6 58,5 18,5 1114,5
9,2 2221,3

26 Bo Lc

1977-2009 57,4 60,5 121,0 213,4 257,9 315,8 399,9 521,1 393,1 348,3 180,5 81,6 2950,5

27 Cn Th

1978-2009

28 Rch Gi

1979-2009 12,2 15,0 31,1 87,0 251,5 304,9 347,5 357,0 287,2 306,9 191,5 45,3 2237,1

29 C Mau

1979-2009 26,6 15,6 32,9 112,4 248,2 337,2 340,9 355,2 350,1 369,5 196,1 59,4 2443,9

7,5

3,9 17,0 39,3 166,7 210,9 228,7 215,9 249,9 275,6 149,5 42,8 1607,9

19

Nam B, kh nh (60-75%) ven bin Nam Trung B v

khong (75-85%) Bc B v phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B
(Thanh Ha, bc Ngh An).
Lng ma ma kh: Lng ma ma kh chim khong 1540% tng lng ma nm; tng i nh Ty Nguyn v Nam
B, tng i ln ven bin min Trung, do ma kh y ko
di ti 8, 9 thng v trong ma kh hng nm thng c ma tiu
mn vo cc thng V, VI.
Lng ma ba thng lin tc c lng ma trung bnh thng
ln nht: Tng lng ma ca ba thng lin tc c lng ma
trung bnh thng ln nht chim khong (2550%) tng lng ma
nm Ty Nguyn v Nam B, (4570%) ven bin Trung B.
Lng ma thng ln nht: Lng ma trung bnh thng ln
nht chim khong 10-30% tng lng ma nm, tng i
ln ven bin Trung B (20-30%) v tng i nh ng
Bc Bc B (h thng sng K Cng- Bng), Ty Nguyn v
BSCL (10-25%).
Lng ma ba thng lin tc nh nht: Tng lng ma ca
ba thng lin tc nh nht chim khong 0,5 8% tng lng
ma nm, tng i ln nhng ni ni cao ma nhiu (7,5%
ti Sa Pa) v nh nht mt s ni Ty Nguyn v Nam Trung
B (Ch S: 0,51%, Hm Tn: 0,58%, Ba Tri: 0,55%).
Lng ma trung bnh thng nh nht: Lng ma trung bnh
thng nh nht ch chim di 3%, tng i nh Ty Nguyn
v BSCL (di 0,5%), tng i ln mt s ni trong h
thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh v h thng sng C.
20

Bng 1.3 trnh by phn phi ma trong nm cc h thng sng

v hnh 1.5 l s phn phi lng ma trung bnh thng trong
nm ti mt s trm kh tng.
Bng 1.3 c trng phn phi ma trong nm trong cc h thng sng [25]
H thng
Sng

Ba thng lin
tc ln nht

Ma ma
Thng

Thng ln
nht

Thng % Thng %

Ma kh
Thng

Ba thng lin Thng nh

tc nh nht
nht
% Thng % Thng %

K Cng V,VI - IX-X 78,2 VI-VIII 51,8 VII,VIII 18,6

XI-IV,V 21,8 XII,I-II 6,1

XII 1,13

Thi Bnh

V - IX

X - IV

19,5 XII,I-II 4,3

XII 1,17

Hng

V - IX,X 80,8 VI-VIII 51,6 VII,VIII 19,6 X,XI - IV 19,2 XII,I-II 4,3

XII 1,18

V-X

80,5 VI-VIII 51,7 VII,VIII 19,3

83,2 VIII-X

53,8 VII, VIII, 20,8

IX

XI - IV

16,8 XII,I-II 4,3

XII, I 1,21

55,9 IX,X

XI - IV, 25,7 I - III 5,7

XII-VII

I, III 1,55

26,5 XII,I - VII, 30,3 I - III, 4,2

VIII
II - IV

II, III 1,22

V-X,VII-XI, I 76,5 VIII - X, 50,5 IX,X,XI 24,6 XI-IV, 23,5 I - III, 3,6
X-XII
IX - XI
XII-VI, I-VIII
II - IV

I, II, 0,63
III

V - X, 74,3 VIII-X
VIII - XI

Thu Bn

I X-XII,
VIII-XI

Ba
ng Nai
S SanXr pc
BSCL

V-X

69,7 VIII-X,I 60,2

IX-XI

23,1

83,2 VII - IX, 46,8

VIII - X

VIII

19,1

XI - IV

V X,XI 85,4 VII - IX 48,2

VIII

19,1

XI, 14,6 XII,I-II 2,5

XII - IV

17,6

XI - IV

V-X

85,7 VIII - X 46,3

16,8 XII,I-II, 3,6

I - III

14,3 I - III 1,5

I, II 0,52
I

0,16

I, II 0,24

Ghi Ch: % - t s % trung bnh cc trm trong h thng sng ca lng ma trung bnh ma /
cc thi on c trng so vi lng ma nm.

21

Hnh 1.5a: Lng ma thng trong nm ti mt trm kh tng [25].

22

Hnh 1.5b: Lng ma thng trong nm ti mt trm kh tng [25].

23

CHNG 2:

TI NGUYN NC MT

2.1. MNG LI SNG SUI

Do s tc ng tng hp gia iu kin kh hu nhit i m
gi ma, ma nhiu v cu trc a cht, a hnh vi lnh th
l i ni, dc v chia ct mnh, nn mng li sng sui trn
lnh th Vit Nam kh pht trin vi mt li sng t di
0.5 km/km2 n trn 4 km/km2, trung bnh khong 0,6 km/km2.
Nu ch tnh cc sng c chiu di t 10 km tr ln v c nc
chy quanh nm th trn lnh th Vit Nam c khong 2.360 con
sng, bao gm 106 sng chnh v 2.254 sng nhnh cc cp. Chn
h thng sng ln c din tch lu vc t 10.000km2 tr ln (K
Cng - Bng, Thi Bnh, Hng, M, C, Thu Bn, Ba, ng Nai v
M Cng) v 97 sng c lp chy trc tip ra bin c din tch lu
vc di 5.000km2, thuc loi sng va v nh. Tr h thng sng
K Cng - Bng Giang chy theo hng Ty Nam - ng Bc vo
lnh th Trung Quc, cn cc h thng sng v sng c lp khc
u chy theo hng Ty Bc - ng Nam hoc Ty - ng ri
ra bin ng. Phn ln cc h thng sng u c phn cch bng
cc dy ni cao (tr cc sng vng chu th) v thng c phn
trung, h lu ca lu vc rt ngn hoc hon ton khng c [18].
Tng din tch lu vc ca ton b sng sui nc Vit Nam
khong 1.168.638 km2, gp 3,5 ln din tch t lin nc ta, trong
837.430km2 (chim 71,7%) nm trn lnh th cc nc ln
cn, ring sng M Cng c 91,3% din tch nm ngoi lnh th
(726 nghn km2), sng Hng 53% (82,3 nghn km2).
Cc sng ln Vit Nam nh sng Hng, sng C, Cu Long
(sng Tin, sng Hu ng bng sng Cu Long) u bt ngun
t nc ngoi hay c mt phn lu vc nm trn lnh th nc
26

ngoi (h thng sng M v h thng sng ng Nai). Mt s

nhnh ca sng M Cng bt ngun t lnh th nc ta chy qua
Lo hay Campuchia (cc sng: Nm Rm, X pn, S San, Srpk)
nhp vo sng M Cng, chy vo lnh th Vit nam (BSCL) ri
cui cng ra bin. Ch mt s sng thuc h thng sng K
Cng - Bng Giang bt ngun t lnh th Vit Nam ri v chy
sang Trung Quc. T c th nhn thy, phn ln cc sng ln
ca Vit Nam l sng xuyn quc gia v vic khai thc, s dng
ngun nc cc quc gia c lin quan ca cc sng ny , ang
v s nh hng ln n ngun nc sng vo lnh th Vit Nam.
Hnh 2.1 l s v tr cc h thng sng trong lnh th Vit Nam.

2.2. PHN B CA DNG CHY NM TRONG LNH TH

Cng nh lng ma nm, dng chy nm ca sng sui cng phn
b khng u trong lnh th. Hnh 2.2 l s ng ng tr m
un dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 trong lnh th
Vit Nam. Cng cn ch ra rng, trong giai on ny phn ln cc
trm thy vn trn phm vi c nc u c s liu quan trc; hn na,
dng chy nm ca nhiu sng va v ln xut hin t nht mt
chu k dng chy nm, bao gm mt pha nc nhiu (gi tr dng
chy nm trung bnh ca pha ny ln hn gi tr dng chy nm trung
bnh thi k nhiu nm) v 1 pha nc t (gi tr dng chy nm trung
bnh ca pha ny nh hn gi tr dng chy nm trung bnh thi k
nhiu nm). iu ny c th hin trn ng qu trnh tch ly
chun sai dng chy nm ca cc sng ln v va (hnh 2.3). Gi
tr dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 sai lch thng
di so vi gi tr dng chy nm trung bnh thi k nhiu nm
(50-60 nm).
27

Hnh 2.1: Cc h thng sng v sng c lp trn lnh th Vit Nam [22].

28

Hnh 2.2. S ng ng tr m un dng chy nm trung bnh

thi k 1977 - 2008 trong lnh th Vit Nam [26].

29

Hnh 2.3a. ng
qu trnh tch ly
chun sai dng
chy trung bnh
nm ti mt s
trm thu vn trn
cc sng ln.

Hnh 2.3b. ng
qu trnh tch ly
chun sai dng
chy trung bnh
nm ti mt s
trm thu vn trn
cc sng va.

Hnh 2.3c. ng
qu trnh tch ly
chun sai dng
chy trung bnh
nm ti mt s
trm thu vn trn
cc sng va.

30

T hnh 2.2 cho thy, trong phm vi lnh th Vit Nam, m un

dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977 - 2008 (M0, l/s.km2) bin
i trong phm vi rng, t di 5 l/s.km2 n trn 100 l/s.km2.
Cc trung tm M0 ln u xut hin nhng vng ni cao n gi
ng Nam hay Ty Nam Bc B, Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B,
hay ng Bc trn sn pha ng dy Trng Sn ven bin
Trung B. l vng ni pha ng Bc tnh Qung Ninh vi M0
trn 120 l/s.km2, c cho l ln nht nc ta, tip sau l
sn pha ng nam dy ni vm sng Chy trung lu hu ngn
sng L (khu vc Bc Quang) vi M0 trn 100 l/s.km2. Ngoi ra,
mt s trung tm dng chy ln vi M0 trn 80 l/s.km2 xut hin
cc vng ni: Hong Lin Sn, bin gii t ngn sng huyn
Mng T tnh Lai Chu, mt s ni sn pha ng dy Trng
Sn (dy Ro C pha ty tnh H Tnh), o Hi Vn, Tr My Ba T pha Ty Nam hai tnh Qung Nam v Qung Ngi v sn
Ty Nam dy Ngc Linh tnh Kon Tum. Ngoi ra, mt s trung
tm dng chy tng i ln xut hin cc dy ni: Tam o, Ba
V, B Rinh (pha ty nam tnh Thanh Ha), Phu Hot (pha ty bc
tnh Ngh An), dy Voi Mp ( pha ty nam tnh Qung Tr), dy
ni Hn Cho ( pha ng nam tnh Ph Yn), dy Ch Yang Sin
pha ng Nam tnh c Lc v vng i ni trung lu sng
ng Nai trn a phn tnh Lm ng v Bnh Thun.
nhng sn ni, thung lng, cao nguyn v ven bin khut gi
ma m thng c ma v dng chy nh. Vng ven bin Ninh
Thun (C N) v Bnh Thun (Ph Phong) l ni c ma v dng
chy nh nht vi M0 di 5 l/s.km2. Ngoi ra, M0 <10-15 l/s.km2
xut hin thung lng cc sng K Cng (tnh Lng Sn), Nm
Rm (tnh in Bin), sng M (tnh Sn La), sng Gm (tnh
31

Tuyn Quang), sng C (tnh Ngh An), sng Ba (tnh Gia Lai),
cao nguyn Sn La - Yn Chu (tnh Sn La), cao nguyn vi
ng Vn, Mo Vc (tnh H Giang) v mt s ni ven bin Bc
Trung B (Thanh Ha - Ngh An) v Nam Trung B (Qung Ngi
- Khnh Ha) v ng bng sng Cu Long (di ven sng Tin,
sng Hu cc tnh ng Thp, An Giang)
Nhn chung, s bin i ca M0 trong cc vng nh sau: (10-120)
l/s.km2 Bc B, (1080) l/s.km2 Bc Trung B, (580) l/s.km2
Nam Trung B, (15-80) l/s.km2 Ty Nguyn,(1050) l/s.km2
ng Nam B v (1030) l/s.km2 ng bng sng Cu Long.

2.3. TNG LNG DNG CHY NM

Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008
ca tt c cc sng trn lnh th Vit Nam (W0) khong
835,5 km3, trong 512,4 km3 (61,3%) t cc nc ln cn chy
vo (W0,ng) v 323,1 km3 (38,7%) c hnh thnh trn lnh th
nc ta (c gi l dng chy ni a-W0,n) [26]. Bng 2.1 a
ra tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008
ca cc h thng sng v ton lnh th c nc.
Tng lng dng chy nm phn b rt khng ng u trong
lnh th. H thng sng M Cng chim 59,8% (khong
500 km 3), h thng sng Hng: 14,8% (123,6 km 3), h thng
sng ng Nai: 4,41% (36,86 km3), cc h thng sng M,
C, Thu Bn tng ng chim 2,42% (20,25 km3), 2,34%
(19,54 km3), 2,62% (21,88 km3), ba h thng sng K Cng,
Thi Bnh v Ba tng ng chim khong 1,14% (9,53 km3),
1,14% (9,55 km 3) v 1,17% (9,75 km 3), cc sng c lp ch
chim 10,1% (84,6 km3).
32

Phn ln ngun nc t nc ngoi chy vo l ca sng

M Cng, chim ti 88,0% (450,76 km 3), ri n sng Hng
(9,29%, 47,6 km3), cn cc h thng sng K Cng, M, C
v ng Nai tng ng chim khong: 0,27%, 1,07%, 0,70%
v 0,70%).
Nu ch xt W 0,n, th h thng sng Hng chim t l ln nht
(23,52%, 76,0 km 3), ri n h thng sng M Cng (15,24%,
49,24 km3), h thng sng ng Nai (10,29%, 33,26 km3),
cc h thng sng K Cng, Thi Bnh, M, C, Thu Bn v
Ba tng ng chim 2,52%, 2,96%, 4,57%, 4,93%, 6,77% v
3,02% v cc sng c lp chim 26,18%.
Hnh 2.4 l s phn b ca tng lng dng chy nm trung
bnh thi k 1977 2008 gia cc h thng sng trong lnh th
Vit Nam. Hnh 2.5 l s phn phi ca tng lng dng chy
nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 trong cc h thng sng.

Hnh 2.4: Phn b ca tng lng

dng chy nm trung bnh thi k
1977 2008 gia cc h thng
sng trong lnh th Vit Nam.

Hnh 2.5: T l % tng lng dng

chy nm trung bnh giai on 19772008 ca cc h thng sng so vi
c nc.

33

2.4. PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM

Hng nm, dng chy sng sui c hai ma: ma l v ma cn.
Nhng thi gian xut hin hai ma dng chy ny l khng ng
thi trn lnh th c nc. Trong bng 2.2 a ra lu lng trung
bnh thng bnh qun thi k quan trc ti mt s trm thy vn
trn cc sng.
Ma l hng nm, trn cc sng sui thng xut hin vo cc
thng V,VI - IX, X Bc B v phn pha Bc ca Bc Trung B,
cc thng VI, VII - XI, XII Ty Nguyn, Nam B v ven bin cc
Nam Trung B (Ninh Thun- Bnh Thun). Ma l trn cc sng
sui ven bin Trung v Nam Trung B c xu th mun v ngn
dn t bc vo nam, t thng VIII, IX n thng XI, XII.
T l lng dng chy ma l so vi dng chy nm cng bin i
theo tng nm v tng vng, t (50-55)% n (80-85)%, trung bnh
khong (70-80)% trn phn ln cc sng, nhng ch khong (6070)% trn cc sng ven bin Trung B
Trong bng 2.3 l c trng phn phi dng chy trong nm trong
cc h thng sng v hnh 2.6 l s phn phi dng chy trong
nm ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng ln v va.
Ba thng lin tc c dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht xut
hin vo cc thng VI-VIII hay VII-IX trn cc sng Bc
B v phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B (sng M); cc thng
VIII-X sng Chu, thng ngun sng C v mt s nhnh sng
trung lu sng Ba; cc thng IX-X trn cc sng ven bin pha
nam ca Bc Trung B t H Tnh n Tha Thin Hu, Ninh
Thun v Bnh Thun, sng c Bla v Xr pc; cc thng X-XII
34

Bng 2.1: Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977 - 2008 ca
cc h thng sng trong lnh th Vit Nam [26]
Th
t

H thng
sng/sng

Din tch lu vc (km2)

Tng lng dng chy nm (km3)

Ngoi
nc

Trong
nc

Ton b

Ngoi
nc

Trong
nc

Ton b

1980

11280

13260

1,38

8,15

9,53

15180

15180

9,55

9,55

K Cng

Thi Bnh

Hng

82300

72700

155000

47,6

76,0

123,6

10800

17600

28400

5,5

14,75

20,25

9470

17730

27200

3,6

15.94

19,54

Thu Bn

10350

10350

20,88

21,88

Ba

13900

13900

9,75

9,75

ng Nai

6700

37400

44100

3,6

33,26

36,86

M Cng

726176

68824

795000

450,76

49,24

500

10

Cc sng khc

66248

66248

84,56

84,56

331212

1168638

323,1

835,5

C nc

837426

512,4

Nam Trung B t Nng n Khnh Ha. Dng chy ba thng

ny chim khong (40-75)% dng chy nm, trung bnh khong
(55-65)%, tng i ln Nam Trung B, ni ma l ch ko di
3 thng v nh nht cc lu vc sng c iu tit lu vc km
hay mt nc vo cc hang ng vi nh ngi um ti trm
Cc San.
35

36

Trm

19 Bn n
20 Kon Tum

17 Sng Lu
18 T Li

15 Cng Sn
16 ng Trng

13 Gia Vng
14 Nng Sn

11 Da
12 ng Tm

9 X L
10 Cm Thu

7 Thc Bi
8 Lng Sn

5 Nm Mc
6 Vnh Yn

3 Ghnh G
4 Sn Ty

1 Yn Bi
2 T B

TT

1150
267

3155

12800

1244
964

Gianh

Bn Hi

Thu Bn

Ba

Ci

Lu

3030

20800

c Bla

17500

10700

6430

10170

1560

K Cng

Xr Pc

2220

Cu

ng Nai

138

143600

Hng

2680

29600

Ngha

45900

Nm Mc

48000

Din tch
(km2)

Hng

Sng

1978-2009

1977-2009

1989-2009

1981-2009

1983-2006

1977-2009

1977-2009

1977-2008

1961-1981

1959-2009

1957-1976, 1995-2008

1961-2009

1958-2009

1960-2009

1960-2009

1961-2009

1956-2009

1957-2009

1961-2009

1957-2009

Thi k quan trc

223

405

268

II

219

338

239

III

271

375

274

IV

VII

VIII

IX

873 1370 1720 1360

VI
988

X
661

XI

569 1220 1880 1820 1210

741

498

745 2120 4080 3960 2440 1560 1110

437

298

677

405

XII

62,7

148

95,5

2,93

60,3

156

250

8,60

27,7

164

140

51,6

6,19

12,9

3,54

29,8

45,6

90,3

59,1

1,38

34,1

87,8

137

4,97

19,3

135

119

43,8

6,31

11,9

3,41

25,4

35,5

66,9

47,9

1,09

29,3

55,3

94,2

3,32

17,5

120

106

38,1

7,68

14,0

3,47

23,6

34,5

71,1

70,9

1,95

25,2

49,5

75,4

3,12

16,7

120

114

41,2

13,8

23,9

4,16

26,8

50,9

125

136

10,7

36,3

93,6

109

5,24

28,5

207

164

59,1

26,6

44,1

5,46

42,4

73,9

207

317

12,2

39,5

137

99,4

3,82

36,7

365

356

135

46,1

82,7

8,82

110

91,5

250

522

14,1

34,0

135

71,2

2,17

40,6

504

602

240

74,7

118

13,2

213

144

818

234

61,9

89,8

12,8

149

388

826

15,1

30,2

236

79,8

4,17

58,4

174

494

866

33,5

55,6

384

193

21,2

185

800 1080

878

322

78,5

131

16,6

242

54,8

94,1

395

249

83,5

11,4

27,0

6,22

52,3

187

563

730

60,6

120

696

165

441

395

22,4

179

800

672 1000

54,7

178

850

424

121

21,8

46,7

9,20

74,3

100

330

200

7,46

180

480

610

26,9

43,7

218

169

62,2

6,12

15,7

4,17

36,9

1300 1140 1060 1230 2080 4700 8000 8320 5690 3790 2570 1570

248

515

314

Lu lng trung bnh thng (m3/s)

Bng 2.2: Lu lng trung bnh thi k quan trc ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng [26]

97,5

264

355

15,3

68,6

276

282

16,1

62,2

413

345

119

30,1

51,5

7,59

85,0

3450

766

1530

742

Nm
(m3/s)

Bng 2.3: c trng phn phi dng chy trong nm [26]

S
Ba thng ln
H
Ma l
Ma cn
Th
trm
nht
thng
c trng
t
thu
sng
vn
% Thng % Thng % Thng
Trung bnh 76,64
23,36
58,31
K
V,VIX,XIVI-VIII,
1
12 Ln nht 86,88
31,08
65,52
Cng
IX,X
IV,V
VII- IX
Nh nht 68,92
13,12
51,72
Trung bnh 79,11
20,89
57,91
Thi
V,VIX,XIVII-IX,
2
20 Ln nht 86,68
30,67
67,80
Bnh
IX,X
IV,V
VI-VIII
Nh nht 69,33
13,32
47,50
57,91
Trung bnh 79,11
20,89
VII-IX,
Thi
V,VIX,XI30,67
67,80
2
20 Ln nht 86,68
IV,V
VI-VIII
Bnh
IX,X
Nh nht 69,33
13,32
47,50
Trung bnh 74,49 VI-IX, 25,51
53,86
X,XI67,39 VII-IX
3 Hng 56 Ln nht 82,49 V, VI- 33,47
IV,V
Nh nht 66,53 X,XI 17,51
39,49
Trung bnh 73,35
26,65
56,95
VIXI-V,
4 M
15 Ln nht 81,62
36,01
68,81 VII-IX
X,VII-XI
XII-VI
Nh nht 63,99
18,38
51,49
Trung bnh 66,56 VI-X, 33,44 XI-V 55,68
VIII-X,
5 C
15 Ln nht 80,65 VII-XI, 48,15 XII-VI, 79,13
IX-XI
Nh nht 51,85 IX-XII 19,35 I-VIII 47,13
Trung bnh 62,74
37,26
62,74
Thu
2 Ln nht 66,84 X-XII 41,36 I-IX 66,84 X-XII
6
Bn
Nh nht 58,64
33,16
58,64
Trung bnh 71,58 IX-XII, 28,42
56,87
I-VII,
VIII-X,
7 Ba
6 Ln nht 75,74 VIII-XI, 35,13
71,80
VIII
X-XII
Nh nht 64,87 X-XII 24,26
37,77
Trung bnh 78,46
21,54
57,99
ng
8
10 Ln nht 84,48 VII-XI 34,00 XII,I-VI 65,67 VIII-X
Nai
Nh nht 66,00
15,52
47,16
Trung bnh 72,04
27,96
49,23
S San
VIII-XII,
I-VII,
VII-X,
9 -Xr
9 Ln nht 77,41
33,34
53,49
VII-XI
XII,I-VI
IX-XII
pc
Nh nht 66,66
22,59
45,40

Thng ln
nht
%
24,77
33,17
19,72
23,74
36,77
18,02
23,74
36,77
18,02
21,66
31,26
13,56
23,77
32,21
20,61
24,11
45,95
18,42
26,14
28,16
24,13
24,57
34,77
19,55
21,63
26,65
18,50
18,93
21,69
15,93

Ba thng Thng nh
nh nht
nht

Thng % Thng % Thng

5,66
1,73
VIII 8,31 I-III 2,66 II,I,XII
3,20
0,87
4,73
1,35
VIII,VII 7,84 I-III 2,46 II, I,III
1,80
0,54
4,73
1,35
VIII,VII 7,84 I- III 2,46 II, I,III
1,80
0,54
8,22
2,34
I-III,
4,18 III,II
VII,VIII 20,97
II- IV
3,85
1,12
7,29
2,19
VIII,IX 9,52 II-IV 2,94 III,II
3,02
0,79
9,39
2,85
IX,X 13,51 II-IV 3,98 III, IV
3,82
1,18
8,79
2,40
XI 9,66 III-V 2,70 IV
7,91
2,11
5,72
1,70
II-IV,
XI 7,17
2,04 IV
VI-VIII
3,68
1,09
4,98
1,41
VIII,
10,30 II-IV 2,85 III
IX, X
2,69
0,76
7,93
2,32
X,XI 11,40 II-IV 3,32 III,IV
5,65
1,48

37

Hnh 2.6a: Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong

nm mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng ln [26].

38

Hnh 2.6b:Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong

nm ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng va [26].

39

Hnh 2.6c: Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong

nm ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt sng va [26].

40

Thng c dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht xut hin vo cc

thng VII hay VIII trn cc sng Bc B v trn sng M; thng
VIII hay IX trn sng C, mt s sng trong h thng sng ng
Nai v sng S San; thng X hay XI trn cc sng ven bin Trung
B t H Tnh n Khnh Ha, sng ng Nai (tr mt s sng
c th vo thng VIII) v sng Xr pc. Dng chy thng ln nht
chim khong (13 -45)% dng chy nm, nhiu nht sng Hinh
ti trm sng Hinh, ni ma l ch ko di c 3 thng, t thng X
n thng XII; nh nht ngi um ti trm Cc San.
Ma cn trn cc sng sui trong cc vng nh sau: t thng X, XI
n thng IV, V Bc B v phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B; t
thng I n thng VIII, IX, phn pha nam ca Bc Trung B v
Nam Trung B; t thng XII, I n thng V, VI Ty Nguyn v
Nam B, t s dng chy ma cn chim khong (15-40)%, trung
bnh khong (20-30)%, tng i ln Nam Trung B, ni ma
cn ko di ti 8, 9 thng v trong ma cn cn c th xut hin l
tiu mn vo thng V,VII. T s dng chy ma cn ch khong
(13-20)% dng chy nm nhng lu vc sng m tnh iu tit
ca lu vc km do a hnh dc, thm ph thc vt ngho nn, c
bit l cc sng sui nh, hay sng sui trong khu vc vng vi
c cc hang ng karst.
Ba thng lin tc c dng chy trung bnh thng nh nht xut
hin vo cc thng I-III trn hu ht cc sng Bc B; cc thng
II-IV trn mt s sng phn pha Bc ca Bc Trung B, thng
v trung lu sng Ba, cc Nam Trung B (Ninh Thun- Bnh
Thun), sng ng Nai v trn cc sng Ty Nguyn; cc thng
III-V trn cc sng ven bin Trung B t Qung Bnh n Khnh
Ha. Dng chy ca ba thng ny chim khong (5-10)% dng
41

chy nm, dao ng trong phm vi (221)%; tng i ln sng

C, sng Hng; nh nht sng Ly ti trm sng Ly (2,3%) v
ln nht (21%) sng Hng ti trm Sn Ty do tc ng iu
tit ca cc h cha Ha Bnh, Thc B v Tuyn Quang.
Thng c dng chy trung bnh thng nh nht xut hin vo
thng II trn phn ln cc sng Bc B (mt s sng xut hin
sm vo thng XII, I); thng III trn sng Hng, sng ng Nai
cc sng Ty Nguyn v cc Nam Trung B; thng IV trn sng
C v cc sng ven bin Trung B, sng Ba v sng ng Nai.
Dng chy ca thng ny chim khong (0,5-4,5)% dng chy
nm, trung bnh khong (1,5-2,5)%, nh nht mt s sng sui
nh (0,53% sui Thanh Lc ti trm Ngc Thanh (din tch lu
vc 19,5 km2) v sng Ly ti trm sng Ly (0,58%).
Ch dng chy vng h lu cc sng ven bin cn chu nh
hng ca triu, c bit l trong ma cn. B bin nc ta di
khong 3.260 km, c 4 kiu thy triu khc nhau trn th gii,
bao gm nht triu u v khng u, bn nht triu u v khng
u. Di y nu khi qut ch triu nc ta [25]:
Vng bin t Mng Ci n Thanh Ha: Hu ht s ngy
trong thng xut hin nht triu u, trong khu vc Hng
Gai - Sn c ch nht triu u nht, trong mt ngy c
mt ln triu ln v mt ln triu xung; cng v pha Bc cng
nh v pha Nam ca khu vc ny th tnh nht triu cng km.
Nam Thanh Ha, hng thng ch c khong (1822) ngy nht
triu. ln ca thy triu t ti 480 cm ti Ca ng, 418 cm
ti Hn Du vo k nc cng cc i, nhng ch t 50 cm vo
k nc km.
42

Vng t Ngh An n bc Qung Bnh: Ch nht triu khng

u, s ngy nht triu chim trn 50% s ngy trong thng;
thi gian triu rt di hn thi gian triu ln. ln ca
thy triu vo k nc cng cc i t 370cm ti ca Hi,
200cm ti ca Gianh. Bin trung bnh tng ng khong
220 cm v 130 cm.
Vng Nam Qung Bnh - Ca Tng: Bn nht triu khng u;
tnh cht bn nht triu ni bt hn vi phn ln s ngy trong
thng c hai ln triu ln v hai ln trin rt. Bin triu gim
dn t Bc vo Nam, ti ca Tng. ln ca thy triu vo
thi k nc cng khong: cc i: 80 cm, trung bnh: 50 cm,
cc tiu: 35 cm.
Vng ca Thun An v ln cn: Bn nht triu u vi hai ln
triu ln v hai ln triu rt u n hng ngy. Bin triu
vo thi k triu cc i khong (6080) cm, t thay i theo
cc k triu trong thng, tng dn v hai pha bc v nam, t ti
(55100) cm ti ca T Hin, ln nht c th ti 190 cm.
Vng t Nam Thun An n Bc Qung Nam: Bn nht triu
khng u; trong thng c khong (2025) ngy bn nht triu.
ln ca thy triu k nc cng ti Nng nh sau: cc
i 130 cm, trung bnh 80 cm, cc tiu 55 cm.
Vng t Nam Qung Nam n Bc Bnh Thun: Ch thy
triu t bn nht triu chuyn dn thnh nht triu khng u;
s ngy nht triu tng ln ti 18 22 ngy trong thng. Bin
triu cng t 120 cm tng ln 200 cm; thi gian triu ln di hn
thi gian triu rt. ln ca thy triu k nc cng ti Quy
Nhn t ti: cc i 201 cm, trung bnh 110 cm, cc tiu 75 cm
43

v ti Nha Trang tng ng bng: 200 cm, 140 cm, 75 cm;

ln thu triu vo k nc km ch t khong 50 cm.
Vng t Nam Bnh Thun n mi C Mau: T Hm Tn n mi
C Mau, tnh cht nht triu tr ln th yu, nn vng ny hng
ngy xut hin bn nht triu khng u, hu ht s ngy trong thng
c hai ln triu ln v hai ln triu rt. Ti Vng Tu, ln ca
thy triu k nc cng nh sau: cc i 419 cm, trung bnh
310 cm, cc tiu 225 cm; ti Ghnh Ho tng ng bng:
390 cm, 290 cm, 210 cm.
Vng t mi C Mau n H Tin: Xut hin nht triu khng
u v nht triu u vi tnh cht bn nht triu tng ln v pha
H Tin. Ti Rch Gi ch nht triu gi vai tr ch yu,
nhng cc thnh phn bn nht triu l ng k, nn s ngy
trong thng c hai ln triu ln v hai ln triu rt l ch yu. T
khu vc ny v pha C Mau v v pha H Tin, tnh cht nht
triu tng ln v s ngy nht triu trong thng tr thnh ch yu.
ln cc i, trung bnh v cc tiu ca thy triu k nc
cng ti mt s v tr tng ng nh sau: ti C Mau: 150 cm,
115 cm, 100 cm, ti Rch Gi: 108 cm, 65 cm, 50 cm, ti H
Tin: 11 cm, 78 cm, 50 cm. Trong k nc km, ln ca thy
triu ch khong 50 cm.

2.5. CHT LNG NC SNG

Cht lng nc ni chung v nc sng ni ring thng c
nh gi theo cc ch tiu v l ha, thnh phn sinh hc v ty
thuc vo mc ch s dng m c nhng tiu ch khc nhau. Di
y ch nu mt cch khi qut mt s c im chnh ca cht
lng nc sng Vit Nam.
44

2.5.1. Dng chy ct bn

Hm lng ct bn ca nc sng (hay cn gi l c ct
bn) cng bin i theo ma v khc nhau gia cc sng trong
cc vng.
Hm lng ct bn l lng trung bnh nm ca cc sng va v
nh bin i trong phm vi t khong 40 g/m3 n gn 700 g/m3;
nh vng vi (sng Trung - mt nhnh pha hu ngn sng
Thng), ln nht sng Nm Mc - mt nhnh pha hu ngn
ca sng [22]. Trong bng 2.4 a ra hm lng ct bn l
lng trung bnh thi k quan trc ti mt s trm thy vn trn
mt s sng.
i vi cc sng ln, hm lng ct bn l lng cng khc
nhau rt ln gia cc sng, t khong 50 g/m3 (sng Xrpc)
n trn 2.500g/m3 (sng Thao), tng i ln h thng sng
Hng (700-1.600) g/m3 sng , (2.000-30.00) g/m3 sng
Thao, (350-700) g/m3 sng L, tng i nh trn cc sng
nhnh ca sng M Cng Ty Nguyn v sng ng Nai
(50 g/m3 sng Xrpc, 106 g/m3 sng ng Nai, 150 g/
m3 sng c Bla), cc sng ln khc ven bin Trung B
khong (150-300) g/m3, sng Tin v sng Hu BSCL
khong (400-500) g/m3.
Hm lng ct bn l lng ca nc sng cng bin i
theo ma: c trong ma l v trong trong ma cn. Khong
(80-90)% tng lng ct bn l lng c dng nc chuyn ti
trong ma l (hnh 2.7).
45

2.5.2. Ha hc nc sng
khong ha trung bnh nm ca nc sng nc ta thuc
loi thp, bin i trong phm vi t di 50 mg/l n 250
mg/l. khong ha trn 200 mg/l xut hin cc sng Thao,
L, Gm v cc sng va v nh chy qua vng vi; di
50 mg/l cc sng vng ven bin Nam Trung B v h thng sng
ng Nai.
Ch s pH: Nc sng thng c phn ng trung tnh hay kim
yu vi ch s pH khong 7-7,5, tng i thp h thng sng
ng Nai; nc sng, knh rch v ng rung mt s ni
trong BSCL vo giai on u ma ma (thng IV, V) thng
b nhim phn nn chua ln vi pH di 5.
Thnh phn ion chnh: Nc sng thuc lp biccbonnt vi ion
HCO3 chim t l ch yu trong cc anion.
cng nc sng thng di 3 mg-e/l, thuc loi mm; nuc
sng ng Nai c cng nh nht, di 0,15 mg-e/l; nc
sng ca cc sng chy qua vng vi c cng kh ln.
Nc sng vng ven bin b nhim mn, nht l vo ma cn.
Mc nhim mn cng nh khong cch t bin m mn c
th xm nhp vo trong sng ngi, knh rch v ng rung
ph thuc vo ln ca triu v lng nc t thng lu
chy v. Ch mn bin i theo ch triu. BSCL, vo
ma cn, c bit l vo thng III, IV khi lng nc thng
ngun vo ng bng nh nht, mn c th xm nhp su
ti (40-60) km k t ca sng; hng nm c khong hn 2 triu
ha b nhim mn.
46

Nhn chung, cht lng nc sng Vit Nam cn tt, c th cung

cp cho cc ngnh s dng. Nhng, nc sng khng t ni
v ang b nhim rt nghim trng do cht thi v nc thi t
cc khu cng nghip, nng nghip, th v khu dn c x trc
tip vo sng sui, ao h, h cha khng qua x l lm sch.
nhim v cn kit ngun nc l vn rt nghim trng, lm
gim lng nc c th cung cp cho cc nhu cu, nh hng n
sc khe con ngi v pht trin bn vng.

2.5.3. Tnh hnh nhim ngun nc mt

1) Tng qut chung
Vo nm 2005, Vit Nam ng th 127 trong bng xp hng ch
s mi trng v ch ng th 8 trong cc nc ASEAN. Ch
s bn vng mi trng ca Vit Nam thp do mi trng b
nhim nghim trng m cha c gii php hu hiu khc phc,
c bit ngun nc mt ang trong tnh trng bo ng, nhiu
dng sng c nguy c b khai t nh sng Nhu, sng y,
sng Cu, sng Cng, sng ng Nai...
Cht lng nc mt trn lnh th Vit Nam nhn chung l tng
i tt, m bo c cc tiu chun v l ngun nc cung cp
cho sinh hot (Tiu chun nc mt loi A) v phc v cho cc
mc ch khc (TCNM loi B). Tuy nhin, mt s on sng gn
cc khu th ln, khu cng nghip, cc lng ngh... th ch tiu
ho l vt cht lng cho php. Ngun gy nhim ch yu
l nc thi t cc hot ng sinh hot, cng nghip, thu sn,
nc thi y t... cha qua x l hoc x l cha trit v thi
trc tip vo knh dn ri chy ra sng [3].
47

48

Trm

Lng Sn
Thc Bi
Bnh Liu
Lo Cai
T B
Ghnh G
Sn Ty
Cm Thu
Da
ng Tm
Tm Lu
Nng Sn
Sn Giang
An Ho
Cy Mung
Cng Sn
ng Trng
Sng Lu
T Li
Bn n
Kon Tum

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

K Cng
Cu
Tin Yn
Thao

L
Hng
M
C
Gianh
i Giang
Thu Bn
Tr Khc
An Lo
Kn
Ba
Ci
Lu
ng Nai
Xrpc
c-bla

Sng

1560
2220
505
41000
45900
29800
143600
17500
20800
1150
1130
3155
2440
383
1510
12800
1244
964
10170
10700
3030

61-2003
61-80
61-80
59-78
61-2003
61-2003
58-2003
59-76
61-2003
61-81
61-70
78-2003
82-2003
89-2003
80 - 2003
78 - 2003
92-2003
97-2003
2000-2003
78-2003
90-2003

Din tch Thi k quan

(km2)
trc
I
42,2
18,9
26,1
479
53,4
32,5
166
16,0
32,3
14,6
7,72
35,8
16,6
10,0
13,4
28,2
27,2
19,1
23,2
46,6
22,6

II
48,4
22,1
25,3
309
56,2
35,2
150
14,4
33,8
13,4
7,53
29,7
12,8
6,67
11,7
19,9
10,7
16,7
20,0
38,9
24,1

III
90,2
28,5
26,7
310
75,1
67,9
138
18,5
37,6
23,9
11,1
33,6
17,2
7,10
12,4
21,6
22,8
19,5
20,6
31,7
26,9

IV
202
106
80,2
626
119
107
185
33,4
49,5
28,0
19,2
35,1
21,5
11,0
13,3
23,3
25,2
139
47,2
32,4
37,0

V
456
284
109
1270
614
368
424
91,3
148
83,3
38,3
64,5
59,7
11,4
41,6
139
49,0
226
40,4
58,7
123

VI
478
302
85,9
3240
1420
525
833
351
213
72,5
17,9
55,3
54,0
9,92
48,7
172
73,4
196
82,7
87,1
102

VII
467
339
115
3600
2200
569
1050
461
289
109
30,3
40,3
38,4
9,89
24,6
140
53,2
176
117
73,6
135

VIII
462
346
67,7
4860
1940
523
1210
735
355
202
19,8
57,8
68,8
8,20
34,8
207
38,7
197
108
85,9
174

IX
297
196
50,7
3460
1080
305
915
607
352
141
107
76,7
103
25,4
82,2
210
64,4
318
110
70,1
149

X
167
126
346
2770
825
181
683
151
236
105
86,0
170
204
132
179
304
81,2
340
106
64,1
186

c ct bn l lng trung bnh thng, g/m3

Bng 2.4: Hm lng ct bn l lng trung bnh thi k quan trc [22]
XI
36,4
35,9
20,2
1980
367
96,9
434
50,6
106
46,1
69,0
183
180
78,9
170
259
92,4
95,7
72,8
40,2
158

XII
22,4
13,4
20,4
1080
118
46,0
205
22,4
38,0
14,8
40,8
92,1
79,6
73,9
62,2
85,9
70,4
50,3
39,6
33,8
42,3

Trung
bnh nm
(g/m3)
565
245
75,1
2730
1420
397
853
402
265
97,8
67,4
154
163
288
144
244
75,3
262
106
62,6
143

Hnh 2.7a: Biu hm lng ct bn l lng trung

bnh thng trong nm ti mt s trm thy vn [26].

49

Hnh 2.7b: Biu hm lng ct bn l lng trung

bnh thng trong nm ti mt s trm thy vn [26].

50

Hin nay, cc h v knh mng cc khu vc th ang tr

thnh ni cha v dn nc thi. Mc nhim ngun nc
trong cc knh, sng, h cc thnh ph ln, cc khu tp trung dn
c l rt nghim trng. mt s on sng, nc sng b nhim
vi mc cao v c xu hng ngy cng tng nh hng n
kh nng s dng ngun nc sng cp nc sinh hot nhiu
a phng. Nhiu khu cng nghip ca mt s tnh v thnh ph
nh TP. H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Bnh Dng ang hng ngy x
hng triu m3 nc thi khng qua x l hoc x l khng t tiu
chun ra sng, gy nhim ngun nc. Nc sng Nhu, sng
y b nhim nghim trng, nc sng Cu, sng ng Nai ang
trong tnh trng bo ng.
Ti H Ni, tng lng nc thi ca thnh ph khong 300 - 400
nghn m3/ngy. Lng nc thi ch c x l s b hoc trong
cc b t hoi hoc cc b lng cn trong cc tuyn thot nc
chung, nng cht nhim mt s im x l rt cao: BOD5 t
50-190mg/l, NH+4 t 3-25mg/l, COD t 90-495mg/l.
Ti thnh ph Vit Tr, mi ngy thi vo sng Hng 100 nghn m3,
trong nc thi cng nghip chim 30%. Nc thi ra c cht
dch en, gm cc cht thi rt nguy him i vi mi sinh nh
lignin, sulfua hu c, axit bo, cc cht hu c mch vng c cha
clo... Ti thnh ph H Ch Minh, lng nc thi cng nghip x
ra mi trng l 400 nghn m3/ngy; d bo lng nc thi cng
nghip n nm 2010 s tng 1,35 ln v 1,46 ln vo nm 2020.
Mt s ngnh cng nghip nh ho cht, phn bn, ch bin khai
thc khong sn c lng nc thi ln cha nhiu yu t c hi
c thi trc tip ra cc sng, ao, h gy nhim ngun nc.
51

Hnh 2.8: X nc thi vo sng.

Ngnh thu sn cng thi ra mt lng nc thi ln t cng nghip

ch bin thu sn nh nc thi sn xut, nc thi v sinh cng
nghip v nc thi sinh hot.
2) Tnh hnh nhim ngun nc trn mt s lu vc sng
a) Lu vc sng Nhu, sng y
Qu trnh pht trin kinh t ca 5 tnh (H Ni, Ho Bnh, H Nam,
Nam nh v Ninh Bnh) thuc lu vc sng Nhu, sng y
gy nhim nghim trng ngun nc mt trn lu vc ny. C ti
700 ngun thi t cng nghip, cc lng ngh bnh vin v sinh hot
vo lu vc cc sng ny. Mi ngy h thng sng phi tip nhn
800 nghn m3 nc thi sinh hot. Ring ni thnh TP.H Ni hng
ngy thi ra khong 500 nghn m3, trong c khong 100 nghn m3
l nc thi t cc c s cng nghip, dch v, bnh vin... Hu ht
lng nc thi ny vo 4 con sng thot nc l sng T Lch,
Kim Ngu, L v St, ri cui cng ra sng Nhu qua p Thanh
Lit. Ngun nc thi t ni thnh H Ni x vo sng Nhu c
coi l mt trong nhng ngun gy nhim ln nht.
52

Theo thng k gn y, ton b khu vc c khong 130 nghn c

s cng nghip, trong c 254 c s c ngun thi trc tip vo
sng Nhu, sng y, trong s c 152 c s cng nghip ti H
Ni. Bn cnh , nc thi t cc lng ngh truyn thng hai bn
sng, nht l ti tnh H Ty (c) cng l ngun gy nhim nh
nc thi t cc lng ngh m t, dt nhum c mu rt cao,
hm lng COD trong nc ln ti 341mg/l; nc thi t cc lng
ngh gia cng kim kh cha hm lng kim loi vt tiu chun
cho php t 2,5-9 ln.
Theo mt s kt qu nghin cu cht lng ngun nc mt sng
Nhu v sng y c th thy cht lng nc mt ca hai sng
trn b nhim t trung bnh n nng.
nhim nng c th k n l nc sng Nhu ti on
Cu Din, cu H ng hay ti cu T - Thanh Tr, nc sng
y ti Thanh Tn - Thanh Lim, ti cu Hng Ph - Ph
L; nng nht l on ti p Thanh Lit, nc sng Nhu
b nhim n mc cc i, hm lng cc ch tiu BOD,
NO2, NH4+, Coliform, As... u vt qu tiu chun cho php
loi B n hng chc ln BOD = 120mg/l; As = 0,15mg/l;
DO = 0,5mg/l; NH4+ = 25,4mg/l; NO2 = 0,37mg/l v Coliform
l 20.000 MPN/100ml. Nc sng nhng khu vc ny
khng tiu chun lm ngun cp cho sinh hot v cho cc mc
ch khc.
b) Lu vc sng Cu, sng Cng
Lu vc sng Cu tip nhn nc thi t 6 tnh: Bc Kn, Thi
Nguyn, Vnh Phc, Bc Ninh, Bc Giang v mt phn nc thi
t TP.H Ni. Kt qu phn tch ca d n nh gi tng quan
53

tnh hnh x nc thi ti mt s khu vc trng im Thi Nguyn,

Nng v Bin Ho do Cc Qun l Ti nguyn nc thc hin
cho thy, tng lng nc thi ca cc loi hnh x thi trn a bn
tnh Thi Nguyn l 42 triu m3/nm, tng ng vi lu lng
trung bnh khong 115 nghn m3/ngy. V c bn, ton b lng
nc thi ny u vo sng Cu v sng Cng.
Nhn chung, nhu cu s dng nc cho sn xut (khng k sn xut
nng nghip) v sinh hot tng i n nh v t bin i theo thi
gian trong nm. Do nc sng bin i mnh m theo ma, nn nu
so snh vi lng nc sng Cu, sng Cng vo thng cn nht
th lng nc thi pht sinh trn a bn ton tnh trong thi gian
tng ng bng khong 10% so vi lng nc t nhin trn hai
sng ny. Trong s , lng nc thi vo sng Cu khong
88%, 12% cn li vo sng Cng.
Cht lng nc sng Cu v sng Cng on chy qua TP.Thi
Nguyn c cc c trng sau: hm lng cht rn l lng TSS
53mg/l; NO2 0,11mg/l, gp 11 ln; COD 20mg/l, gp 2 ln;
BOD5 17mg/l, gp 4,4; Coliform 23 nghn MPN/100ml, gp 4,7
ln; DO l 5,1, gp 5,3 ln so vi gii hn TCNM loi A.
Nhn chung, cht lng nc sng Cu hin nay ang trong tnh
trng bo ng; c bit l vng trung v h lu sng Cu, c ni
b nhim nghim trng, cht lng din bin rt phc tp v mc
nhim tng on sng rt khc nhau. Theo thng k gn y,
ton b lu vc sng Cu c hn 2.000 doanh nghip sn xut cng
nghip v cc ngnh ngh nh luyn kim, ch bin thc phm, ch
bin lm sn, vt liu xy dng. Nc thi ca nhiu doanh nghip
trong s c thi trc tip ra sng Cu. Cc c s luyn
54

kim, cn thp, ch to thit b my mc tp trung ch yu Thi

Nguyn vi tng lng nc thi hn 16 nghn m3/ngy cng l
mt trong nhng th phm khin nc sng Cu b nhim. Ring
khu cng nghip gang thp Thi Nguyn mi nm c hn 1,3 triu
m3 nc thi c vo sng Cu. iu ng ni l nc thi
pht sinh trong qu trnh sn xut gang thp c cha nhiu cht gy
nhim c hi nh du m, phenol v xianua, gi tr cc thng s
SS, BOD5, COD u vt tiu chun cho php (TCNM loi A) t
2-3 ln. Khu cng nghip sng Cng vi cc nh my sn xut c
kh, ch to my ng lc, hu ht u cha c h thng x l nc
thi, hoc ch c h thng x l lng cn s b ri thi thng ra sng
Cng em theo nhiu du m, kim loi nng c hi.
Bn cnh , hot ng sn xut ca hn 200 lng ngh tp trung
ch yu Bc Ninh v mt s Thi Nguyn, Vnh Phc, Bc
Giang, nh sn xut giy, nu ru, m kim loi, ti ch ph thi,
sn xut gm... thi ra sng Cu mt lng ln nc thi
cha qua x l m thi trc tip vo ngun nc. Ti mt s lng
ngh tuy c cc d n u t xy dng h thng x l nc thi
tp trung nhng hot ng khng hiu qu, mt phn v h thng
thot nc thi t li khng c tu b lm cho nng nhim
tng ln khng ngng v ngy cng nghim trng.
c) Lu vc sng ng Nai
Lu vc h thng sng ng Nai tri rng trn a bn nhiu tnh,
do chu nh hng ca nhiu ngun tc ng trn ton lu vc.
c bit l vng h lu, nhiu sng b nhim nghim trng, trong
c on sng cht.
55

Theo d n iu tra ti nguyn nc, tnh hnh khai thc v x

nc thi vo ngun nc vng kinh t trng im pha Nam,
cht lng nc sng ng Nai b nhim mt s ch tiu a
lng v vi sinh nh NO2, COD, BOD5, Coliform,... mt s ch tiu
vi lng khc nh Hg; As; CN;... mi ch c ch tiu Hg vt gii
hn cho php, cc ch tiu khc cha vt gii hn cho php theo
TCNM-loi A. Mc nhim cc ch tiu a lng, vi lng
nc sng ng Nai c xu hng tng dn t ng Nai v TP. H
Ch Minh (t thng lu v h lu).
Nu xt cc ch tiu phn tch so vi TCNM cho thy: Phn ln cc
ch tiu c phn tch u vt gii hn cho php (TCNM loi
A) khng t tiu chun lm ngun nc cho mc ch n ung
sinh hot nh: TSS bin i t 2,4 mg/l n 1.354mg/l, trung bnh
99,3mg/l, vt gii hn cho php theo TCNM loi B t hn 1 n
16,9 ln; NO2 0,44mg/l, vt TCNM- loi B l 8,8 ln; COD vt
gii hn cho php theo TCNM-loi B t 1,2-1,8 ln; Hm lng
du khong gp gn 2,4 ln TCNM loi B; hm lng Coliform
vt gii hn cho php theo TCNM-loi B t 2-240 ln
Hng ngy, sng ng Nai cn phi tip nhn 992 nghn m3 nc
thi sinh hot. y l ngun thi ln, gy nhim mi trng
lu vc c bit l nhim hu c v vi sinh vt. Nc thi cng
nghip cng l ngun gy nhim ng k. Xt v tng lng,
bnh qun mt ngy, lu vc sng tip nhn khong 480 nghn
m3 nc thi t hn 9 nghn doanh nghip sn xut cng nghip
thuc cc khu cng nghip v cc c s sn xut cng nghip
phn tn trn lu vc. Bn cnh , vic s dng thuc bo v
thc vt, phn bn ho hc cng vi nhng hn ch trong vic
u t, x l nc thi t cc chung tri chn nui v nui trng
56

thu sn cng khin mi trng ca lu vc sng nhim ngy

cng trm trng.

2.6. H CHA, H V M PH
2.6.1. H cha
Nh trn nu, ti nguyn nc sng ca Vit Nam kh phong
ph. Tuy nhin, c im ch yu ca dng chy sng sui trn lnh
th Vit Nam l bin i mnh m trong khng gian v theo thi
gian, c bit l phn phi rt khng u trong nm, gy ra l lt
trong ma ma l v hn hn trong ma kh cn. Ngoi ra, tim
nng thy in cng kh di do vi tim nng l thuyt khong
300 t kWh; tim nng k thut khong 123 t kWh, tng ng
vi cng sut lp my khong 32.000MW; tim nng kinh t k
thut khong 100 t kWh, tng ng vi cng sut lp my
khong 25.000MW.
khai thc ti nguyn nc sng v tim nng thy in, nhm
pht in, chng l v cp nc cho h du, pht trin giao thng
thy v thy sn v ci thin mi trng, trong thi gian qua c
hn 10.000 h cha cc loi c xy dng vi tng dung tch
hu ch khong 37.000 triu km3, chim 4,4% tng lng dng
chy nm trung bnh giai on 1977-2008 ca cc sng sui. Tng
dung tch hu ch ca cc h cha trong h thng sng Hng-Thi
Bnh (thuc lnh th Vit Nam) chim trn 45%, h thng sng
ng Nai chim khong 22%, mi h thng sng C, Ba v sng
S San chim khong 7% tng dung tch hu ch ca cc h cha
trong c nc.
57

Theo iu tra, thng k gn y nht, trn a phn ca 43 tnh,

thnh ph c trn 2.900 h cha c dung tch t 0,5 triu m3
tr ln ang vn hnh v ang c xy dng hoc c quy
hoch vi tng dung tch khong 65 t m3, tng cng sut lp
my khong 21.000MW [17]. Trong , c khong 2.100 h
cha ang vn hnh vi tng dung tch 41 t m3 v cng sut lp
my gn 8.000MW; gn 240 h cha ang c xy dng vi
tng dung tch hn 21 t m3 v cng sut lp my gn 9.000MW;
hn 500 h cha c quy hoch v s c xy dng trong
thi gian ti vi tng dung gn 4 t m3 v cng sut lp my
hn 4.200MW. Trong s cc h cha nu trn c khong 2.100
h cha thy li vi tng dung tch hn 9 t m3, ch chim
khong 14% tng dung tch ca ton b h cha, ch yu l loi
h cha loi nh ang hot ng, c nhim v ch yu l cp
nc v chng l; trong c 14 h cha c dung tch t 100
triu m3 tr ln, nh cc h cha: Du Ting trn sng Si Gn
c dung tch (Wt) 1.580 triu m3, Ph Ninh trn sng Tam k
(Wt = 414 triu m3); mt s h cha ang c xy dng, nh
cc h cha: Ngn Tri trn sng Ngn Tri (Wt=775 triu
m3), Ca t trn sng Chu (Wt =1364 triu m3), T Trch trn
sng T Trch (Wt=646 triu m3). Khong 800 h vi tng dung
tch trn 56 t m3 c nhim v pht in l chnh (c gi l h
cha thy in) chim khong 86% tng dung tch cc h cha,
bao gm 77 h cha ang vn hnh, 223 h ang c xy
dng v hn 500 h c quy hoch v s c xy dng
trong thi gian ti. Hu ht cc h cha ln c nhim v khai
thc tng hp ti nguyn nc v pht in. l cc h cha:
Thc B trn sng Chy (Wt=2,9 t m3), Ha Bnh trn sng
58

(Wt= 5,6 t m3), Tuyn Quang trn sng Gm (Wt=2,26 t m3),

Tr An trn sng ng Nai (Wt= 2,765 t m3) v h cha Sn
La trn sng vi Wt = 9,26 t m3.
S lng cc h cha trong cc h thng sng v mt s sng
c lp c a ra trong bng 2.5.

59

Bng 2.5: S lng h cha , ang v s c xy dng c dung tch t 0,5

triu m3 tr ln trong cc h thng sng [17]

H thng
sng / sng

T.T

1 K Cng - Bng Giang

Trong h cha c
dung tch trn 100 triu (m3)

Ton b h cha

S Tng dung Tng cng sut S Tng dung Tng cng sut
lng tch (109m3) lp my (MW) lng tch (109m3) lp my (MW)
55

135

152

2 Thi Bnh

104

786

22

538

14

3 Hng

546

30705

9391

19

28845

7694

4 M

78

2590

754

2476

639

5 C

122

2918

760

2708

520

6 Hng

39

2210

210

2070

145

7 Thu Bn

88

2587

1503

2395

1279

8 Tra Khc

30

574

357

554

201

9 Kn - H Thanh

31

569

200

371

146

10 Ba

254

1707

964

1461

527

11 S San

139

3736

2149

3505

1841

12 Xrpc

599

2337

1045

1907

736

13 ng Nai

280

10326

2941

16

9903

2563

14 Cc sng khc

542

4661

528

10

1972

244

C nc

2907

65842

20975

97

59804

16538

60

2.6.2. H v m ph
Trn lnh th Vit Nam cn c nhiu ao, h t nhin v m
ph ven bin. Mt s h t nhin tng i ln nh: h
Ba B trn sng Nng huyn Ba B tnh Bc Kn, h Ty TP.
H Ni, Bin H ngoi thnh TP. Pliku, tnh Gia Lai, h Lc trn
sng Krng Ana tnh c Lc... ng k nht c h Ba B, y l
loi h kin to, nm trn cao 145 m so vi mc nc bin trong
vng vi v quc gia Ba B; h di khong 8 km, rng 3 km v
su 20-30 m. H Ty l mt on ct dng ca sng Hng, h rng
khong 500 hecta, l h ln nht trong TP. H Ni. Bin H hay cn
gi l h T Nhng trc y l ming ni la ngng hot ng
hng trm nm v trc; h c dng bu dc, din tch mt h khong
230 ha, su 20-40 m. H Lc nm trung lu sng Krng Ana,
nh mt di la xanh bao bc th trn Lc Thin huyn Lc tnh
c Lc, h rng trn 500 ha. Nhn chung, cc h t nhin l cc
a im danh lam thng cnh, thu ht nhiu khch du lch v l ni
nui trng thy sn, mt s h l ngun cp nc cho sinh hot v
ti nh Bin H.
m ph thng c hnh thnh vng ven bin min Trung.
ng k nht c h thng m ph nm dc ven bin tnh Tha
Thin Hu, di khong 68 km, bao gm ph Tam Giang, m Thy
T, vng Cu Hai v m Lng C. m ph l ni nui trng v
nh bt thy sn nc l; m Tr v m Th Ni tnh Bnh
nh; m Ni tnh Ninh Thun.

61

CHNG 3

TI NGUYN NC DI T

3.1. TR LNG NC DI T
Vit Nam c ti nguyn nc di t kh di do. Theo kt qu
iu tra kho st v tnh ton, tng tr lng ng t nhin trn
ton lnh th Vit Nam khong 112.239.142 m3/ngy hay 41,0 km3/
nm, tr lng khai thc tim nng khong 132.873.900 m3/ngy
hay 48,5 km3/nm, bng khong 15,1% tng lng dng chy nm
ca sng sui c hnh thnh trong lnh thVit Nam. Ti nguyn
nc di t phn b rt khng u theo khng gian. Trong bng
3.1 a ra tr lng ng t nhin v tr lng khai thc tim nng
nc di t trong cc vng v c nc [6]. Tr lng khai thc
tim nng trong mt s vng kh phong ph, nh khu vc ng
Bc B ti 27.995.103 m3/ngy hay 10,22 km3/nm (chim 21,1%),
ng bng Nam B t 23.843,7.103 m3/ngy hay 8,70 km3/nm
(17,9%); trong khi , rt nh mt s vng nh vng ng Nam
B ch t 1.642,3.103 m3/ngy hay 0,60 km3/nm (1,2%), vng
Nam Trung B 12.840.103 m3/ngy hay 4,69 km3/nm (9,7%).
Hnh 3.1 l s phn b tr lng nc di t (tr lng ng
v tr lng khai thc tim nng nc di t) trong cc vng v
hnh 3.2 l s t l % phn phi tr lng khai thc tim nng
ca cc vng so vi c nc.
Trn quan im s dng nc cho cc mc ch khc nhau, nc
ngm c chia lm 3 loi theo tng khong ho (TDS). Trn
lnh th nc ta, nc ngm nht (TDS 1g/l) chim ti 92% din
tch lnh th c nc; vng khng c nc ngm nht ch chim
8% din tch lnh th, phn b cc ng bng chu th, cc sng
ln nh v vng ven bin. Nc ngm nht phn b trn ton b
din tch vng ni v cao nguyn, cc ng bng c cao trn
10m v phn nh cc ng bng chu th, cc sng ln nh v
64

vng ven bin. cc vng ny ton b mt ct n chiu su

nghin cu u cha nc nht. Phn ln din tch cn li ca
ng bng chu th cng c t nht 1 tng cha nc nht cc
su khc nhau (bng 3.2).
Nc ngm l phn b ch yu cc ng bng chu th, vng
ven bin, hi o v thm lc a. Din tch lnh th phn t lin
c ton b mt ct l nc l v mn chim din tch khng ln,
ch khong 25 nghn km2, nhng din tch nc ngm l v mn
nm xen k vi nc nht li kh ph bin ng bng.
Nc ngm mn phn b tng i hn ch cc ng bng
phn di mt ct nhng thm lc a v cc o li rt ph
bin. Trong bng 3.2 a ra kt qu nh gi tr lng nc
nht di t trong cc thnh to cha nc tnh n nm 1993.

ng Nam B
1.2%

Ty Bc
ng Bng Nam B 11.7 %
18.0 %
ng Bc
21.1 %

Ty Nguyn
13.6 %
12

Tr lng ng

Tr lng khai thc tim nng

Km3/nm

10

Nam T.B
9.7 %

Bc T.B
11.9 %

ng Bng B.B
12.9 %

8
6
4
2
0
Ty Bc ng B
Bc

Bc Bc B T.B

Nam Ty ng B Nam
T.B Nguyn Nam B B

Hnh 3.2: T l % tr lng khai

thc tim nng nc di t
trong cc vng so vi c nc

Vng

Hnh 3.1: Phn b tr lng khai

thc tim nng nc di t trong
cc vng

65

Bng 3.1: Tr lng nc di t trong lnh th Vit Nam [6 ]

Tr lng ng
(nghn m3/ngy)

Tr lng khai thc tim nng

(nghn m3/ngy)

Ton quc

112.239,1

132.874,0

Ty Bc

15.516,3

15.521,3

ng Bc B

27.952,6

27.995,4

ng bng Bc b

6.795,6

17.191,2

Bc Trung B

18.161

15.830,8

Nam Trung B

12.283,1

12.839,9

Ty Nguyn

18.009,4

18.009,4

ng Nam B

1.615,6

1.642,3

ng bng Nam B

11.905,6

23.843,7

TT

Vng

Ngun: ti c lp nh gi tnh bn vng ca vic khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc

ngm lnh th Vit Nam. nh hng chin lc khai thc s dng hp l v bo v ti nguyn
nc ngm n nm 2020.

66

Bng 3.2: Tr lng nc nht di t trong cc thnh to cha nc tnh n

nm 1993 c nh gi .
Vng

Cc thnh to
cha nc

Tng
ng Bc B

ng bng Bc b

C1

C2

506.861

714.046

2.100.188

8.721.653

B ri

15.047

19.150

166.298

31.812

Cacbonat

35.284

27.861

190.935

466.031

Cc thnh to khc

30.592

35.050

102.842

8.496

353.800

380.726

773.585

1.723.893

24.377

22.591

110.958

573.965

Cc thnh to khc

1.200

26.452

119.917

222.285

B ri

4.000

4.400

107.982

1.503.960

22.280

19.020

133.230

176.464

1.176

24.988

64.654

B ri
Cacbonat

Ven bin Trung b

Tr lng cp (m3/ngy)

Cacbonat
Cc thnh to khc
ng bng Nam B

B ri

12.000

150.800

232.211

1.417.830

Ty Nguyn

B ri

10.068

339.138

8.281

26.820

125.244

2.114.663

1.930

78.462

Cacbonat
Cc thnh to khc

Ngun: ti c lp nh gi tnh bn vng ca vic khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc

ngm lnh th Vit Nam. nh hng chin lc khai thc s dng hp l v bo v ti nguyn
nc ngm n nm 2020.

67

3.2. CHT LNG NC DI T

Cht lng nc di t trn lnh th Vit Nam nhn chung l
tt, m bo yu cu cp nc n ung v sinh hot theo tiu
chun 1329/BYT/Q ca B Y t ban hnh ngy 18/4/2002.
pH ca nc ngm trn lnh th nm trong gii hn
4,5-8,5, ch yu trong khong 6,5-7,5. Cc vng c cao
pH < 6,5 chim din tch kh rng t Qung Nam tr vo n
min ng Nam B, ch yu l nc ngm khng p do hm
lng Cacbonat trong t cha nc v bi trong khng kh
cng nh trong lp th nhng nh. Vi vng m khai thc
min Bc nh than Phn M, Na Dng, mt s m than Qung
Ninh v mt s m khc, nc c hot tnh mnh phn b t
Nng vo pha Nam, pH cng xung n 0,4, c ni thp hn.
Hin tng ny ch yu c gy ra bi qu trnh oxi ho mt s
sunphua kim loi c trong t ca cc m v bi thi.
Tng hm lng mui hoc tng khong ha (TDS) ca
nc di t: Vi gii hn cho php s dng bng hay nh hn
1,0 g/l, cc thnh phn ha hc a lng hu ht u nm trong
gii hn cho php, ring hm lng Clo cc vng ng bng
thng cao hn gii hn cho php vi TDS ln hn 0,8 g/l
Hm lng cc thnh phn nguyn t vi lng (Cu, Pb, As,
Hg...) u nh hn gii hn cho php s dng nc cho n ung,
sinh hot. Nhng mt s kt qu phn tch nc ti mt s ni
thuc ng bng Bc B (H Ni, Hi Phng, Bc Giang, Nam
nh) cho thy, hm lng Hg, As trong nc vt qu gii hn
cho php i vi nc n ung, sinh hot. Cc thnh phn khc
nh Cu, Pb, Zn nhn chung c hm lng nm di mc tiu
chun cho php.
68

Tuy nhin, mt s l khoan ang khai thc nc cc ng bng

cng gp nc c hm lng cao cc cht c ngun gc hu c
(NO2 , NO3 , NH4+ ), hm lng st, mangan cao hn quy nh
i vi nc lm ngun sn xut nc sch.
Thnh phn cc vi khun trong nc ngm u nh hn gii hn
cho php. Cc cht c hi ngun gc t nhin c hm lng
trong nc ngm di mc quy nh. Nh vy, v c bn nc
ngm nht c cht lng ph hp vi tiu chun nc dng cho
n ung v sinh hot.
Trong bng 3.3 a ra c im cht lng nc di t trong
cc vng trn lnh th Vit Nam
Di y nu ln tnh hnh cht lng nc di t ca mt s
vng [6]:
Vng ng Bc B
- Khu vc Cao Bng Qung Ninh: Nc di t
ven bin Qung Ninh thng b mn vi M ln hn
1,0 g/l, c bit l nc trong cc thnh to cacbonat
dc ven bin. cc ni khc c M= (0,1-0,5) g/l;
pH=(6,5-8,0); nc thuc loi mm vi cng nh hn
1,5 mgl/l; hm lng st khng ln. Nhn chung, tr
ven bin ra, nc di t cc ni khc u tt, c th
cung cp cho cc nhu cu.
- Khu vc H Giang Tuyn Quang: Nc di t c
M=(0,1-0,5)g/l, thuc loi nc nht; loi hnh ha hc
thuc loi bicacbonat canxi; pH thng khong (6-7),
69

nhng c th nh hn i vi nc di t trong cc
thnh to macma xm nhp; nc thuc loi mn vi
cng di 1,5 mgl/l; hm lng st bin i khng c
quy lut, c th nh nhng kh cao xung quanh mt s
m sunphua; hm lng cc cht hu c nh; hm lng
CO2 n mn cao, thng trn 10 mg/l. Nhn chung, cht
lng nc di t khu vc ny tt, nhng mt s ni
c hm lng st cao v hm lng vi nguyn t qu nh
khng c li cho n ung.
Vng Ty Bc
- Khu vc Lo Cai Yn Bi: Tr cc mch nc khong
ra, nc di t phn ln cc ni thuc nc nht vi
M di 0,5 g/l; pH=(6-8); thuc loi nc mm; hm
lng st nh, tr cc thnh to b ri cc thung lng
sng; hm lng iod thp, khng c li cho n ung do
d mc bnh biu c. Nhn chung, cht lng nc di
t tt.
- Khu vc Phong Th - Tn Lc: Nc di t thuc loi
nc nht vi M di 1 g/l, nhng cng v pha ng
Nam th tng khong ha cng tng, nc trong cc
thnh to cacbonat c M=(0,3-0,6) g/l, tng ln 3g/l vng
st bin; pH=(6,5-8,0); nc thng thuc loi axit yu
n kim yu; cng thng (1,5-3,0) mgl/l, tng ln ti
(3-6) mgl/l cc tnh to cacbonat; hm lng st di
1,0 mg/l. Nhn chung, cht lng nc di t khu vc
ny tt, c th cung cp cho cc nhu cu n ung, sinh hot,
nhng khng thun li cho nhu cu cng nghip do
cng cao.
70

 Vng ng bng Bc B
Nhn tng qut, trn phm vi ng bng, trong cc thnh phn
to b ri tn ti hai tng cha nc chnh:
- Tng cha nc trn cng (Qc): Nc trong tng ny ang
c khai thc t cc ging khi, cc l khoan nh kiu
UNICEF phc v nc nng thn. Kt qu phn tch thnh
phn ho hc, sinh hc ca nc trong tng cha nc
ny cho thy, phn Ty Bc ng bng c nc di
t c M<1g/l, loi hnh ho hc t Bicacbonat chuyn
dn sang Bicacbonat - Clorua v Clorua - Bicacbonat.
Cc thnh phn vi nguyn t u nh hn gii hn cho
php; pH ca nc khong (6,5 - 7,5); p ng yu
cu s dng nc cho n ung sinh hot. Tuy vy, nc
tng ny nm khng su v do nc ma, nc mt
ngm xung qua i thng kh mng nn d b nhim
bn. Cht lng nc bin i mnh, hm lng st kh
cao. Khi s dng cho n ung sinh hot cn tin hnh x
l hm lng st v dit vi khun.
Phn Nam ca ng bng, nc ca tng ny c tng khong
ho vt qu gii hn cho php (M >1g/l); pH mt s ni
thp, nc thng thuc loi clorua- natri, hm lng st cao
nn khng phi ni no cng c th s dng cho n ung sinh
hot c.
- Tng cha nc su (Qa): do nm su nn thnh phn ho
hc ca nc n nh hn. phn Bc v trung tm nc
c M<1g/l, cc thnh phn khc thp hn gii hn quy
71

nh. Song hm lng Fe nhn chung cao nn phi x l

trc khi dng cho n ung sinh hot.
Vng Bc Trung B
Nc di t vng ny c tng khong ha thay i trong
phm vi rng, tuy nhin, ch bin i mnh m ng bng ven
bin Thanh Ho, cn cc vng ng bng khc ph bin nc c
M<0,5 g/l. Cc thnh phn khc nh pH bin i (6-8); cng
nh; hm lng st nh cht lng nc p ng cc yu cu s
dng nc cho n ung sinh hot.
Ring khu vc ng bng v ven bin Thanh Ho, cht lng
nc bin i phc tp. Nc trong cc thnh to b ri c M
bin i t (0,1- 0,3) g/l. Theo hng Ty Bc- ng Nam, nhn
chung tng khong ho ca nc tng ln. Khu vc c M<1g/l
phn b cc ra ng bng, n TP. Thanh Ho, v phn trn
ca cc cn ct v di ct ven bin Sm Sn, Tnh Gia, Hong
Ho.
Nhn chung, cht lng nc di t trong vng Bc Trung B
tt, p ng cc yu cu cp nc.
Vng Ven bin Trung B
Nc di t trong cc thnh to b ri ven bin Trung B c
tng khong ho bin i phc tp, song nhn chung c quy
lut.
cc di ct, cn ct ven bin tng khong ho ca nc
phn nh thuc loi nc nht, cng xung su tng khong
ho cng tng. Nc nht (M<1g/l) to thnh thu knh ni
72

trn nc mn. Nc c thnh phn hn hp Clorua Bicacbonat,

thuc phn ng trung tnh pH=6,5-7,5, hm lng st nh. Nhn
chung, nc di t vng ny c cht lng p ng cc yu
cu cp nc cho n ung sinh hot.
Vng Ty Nguyn
Nc di t Ty Nguyn ch yu tn ti, vn ng trong
cc thnh to Bazan Kainozoi (N2- qp1 v qp2- qh) v cc t
trm tch bin cht, cc magma xm nhp. Cc kt qu phn
tch thnh phn ho hc ca nc di t Ty Nguyn cng
nh kt qu tm kim thm d cho thy, nc trong cc thnh to
bazan c cht lng tt, m bo cp nc lu di.
Vng ng Nam B
Nc di t vng ng Nam B nhn chung c tng
khong ho nh, thnh phn khc nh hp cht ca nit, thnh
phn vi sinh u nm trong gii hn cho php. Tuy nhin, pH
ca nc di t ng Nam B nhn chung thp, nc c
phn ng axit yu (pH=5-6,5). V vy, khi s dng nc di
t lm ngun cung cp cho n ung sinh hot cn phi ch
c bin php x l nng cao pH ca nc.
Vng ng bng Sng Cu Long
Trong cc thnh to b ri vng BSCL c nhiu tng cha
nc khc nhau. Thnh phn ho hc, v tng khong ho
ca nc trong cc tng cha nc bin i phc tp. Vng c
M<1g/l l i tng khai thc phc v cho n ung sinh hot.
Nc nc di t c M=1-1.5 g/l thm ch M<2g/l cng c
73

s dng phc v n ung sinh hot.Vng c M>1-2 g/l c th

s dng ti.
Hm lng st trong nc di t BSCL cng vt qu
gii hn tiu chun quy nh. Tuy nhin hu ht cc tng cha
nc nht BSCL u nm su nn nhn chung cc vi khun
trong nc khng c, s c mt ca chng ch yu do cc qu
trnh khai thc khng m bo k thut. Song iu ng lu v
cht lng nc l s xm nhp ca nc mn vo cc l khoan
khai thc nc.

74

Bng 3.3: Cht lng nc ngm cc vng lnh th Vit Nam [6]
Vng

tng khong ho (TDS, g/l) PH T - n

T - n thng gp
thng gp

Loi hnh ho
hc thng gp

ng Bc Bc B

0,1 35
< 0,7

48
7

Cl - Na
HCO3

Ty Bc Bc B

0,1 5
< 0,5

68
7

Cl - Na
HCO3 - Ca

Vng Bc
Trung B

0,1 10
<1

68
7

Cl - Na
HCO3 - Ca

Vng ven bin

Trung B

0,1 10
<1

68
7

Cl Na
HCO3 - (Na, Ca)

Vng Ty Nguyn

0,1 10
< 0,5

48
6

Cl - Na,
HCO3 - (Ca, Na)

Vng ng Nam B

0,1 28
<1

48
6

Cl - Na,
HCO3 - (Ca, Na)

Vng ng bng
Bc B

0,1 35
<1

6 - 8,5
7

Cl - Na,
HCO3 - (Ca, Na)

Vng ng bng
sng Cu Long

0,1 35
<1

3 - 8,5
6

Cl - Na,
HCO3 - (Ca, Na)

Ngun: ti c lp nh gi tnh bn vng ca vic khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc ngm lnh th
Vit Nam. nh hng chin lckhai thc s dng hp l v bo v ti nguyn nc ngm n nm 2020.

75

CHNG 4

TC NG CA BIN I KH
HU N TI NGUYN NC

4.1. TNG QUAN V BIN I KH HU V TC

NG CA N N TI NGUYN NC
4.1.1. Khi qut v bin i kh hu
Tri t ca chng ta ang nng dn ln do chu nh hng ca
hiu ng nh knh. Nguyn nhn gy ra hiu ng nh knh l do
nng cc kh t nhin c trong bu kh quyn v cc kh do cc
hot ng sinh hot, sn xut ca con ngi thi vo kh quyn
ang c xu hng tng ln.
Khc vi xu th bin i t nhin ca h thng kh hu v thi tit
trn Tri t, hin tng nng ln ca Tri t do hot ng ca
con ngi gy ra c gi l bin i kh hu (Climate Change).
Vy, bin i kh hu (BKH) l do cc hot ng trc tip v gin
tip ca con ngi gy ra, n lm thay i cc thnh phn trong
kh quyn ton cu. Bin i kh hu v ang gy ra nhng nh
hng tiu cc n cuc sng ca con ngi trn mi lnh vc: c
v mi trng v kinh t-x hi. Trong 150 nm qua, nhit bnh
qun b mt Tri t giai on 1900-2005 tng khong 0,80C;
nhit i dng tng 0,50C, nhit bnh qun b mt ton cu
tng 0,760C (IPCC,2007.) S nng ln ton cu gy nn kh
hu thay i nhiu hn, nh nhng bin i ca ma v gia tng
tn sut, cng , tnh bin ng v tnh cc oan ca cc hin
tng thi tit nguy him nh bo, lc, cc thin tai lin quan n
nhit v ma nh thi tit kh nng, l, ngp lt, hn hn, rt
hi, xm nhp mn, dch bnh v dn n mc nc bin bnh
qun ton cu dng cao. Bin i kh hu v ang tc ng n
nhiu vng trn Tri t v mi trng v kinh t x hi. Th gii
ang phi i mt vi nhiu thin tai do BKH gy ra nh vic
78

xut hin ngy cng nhiu cc trn xoy lc nhit i ti vng Ty

Thi Bnh Dng; tn sut xut hin l lt, hn hn ngy cng gia
tng; bnh dch bng pht nhiu ni trn th gii; tnh a dng
sinh hc b suy gim nghim trng; an ninh lng thc, an ninh
v nc b e da... Ti cc vng thuc Chu Thi Bnh Dng,
BKH gy ra nhiu bin ng, c bit l s gia tng ca cc
thm ha thin nhin v dch bnh. Khu vc ng Nam , c bit
l Vit Nam, s l khu vc c nguy c chu tc ng nhiu nht t
BKH. Nguyn nhn l do cc vng ny thuc khu vc d b tn
thng, v bn thn cc khu vc ny c kh nng thch ng cha
cao vi s BKH. Tc ng ln nht m cc nc ny phi gnh
chu phn ln lin quan n s tng mc nc bin. Tn sut ca
cc trn l, cc t hn ngy cng tng, v thi gian xut hin cc
thin tai li rt kh d bo. i km vi cc thin tai ny l s gia
tng cc dch bnh truyn nhim, an ninh lng thc v i sng
ca ngi dn b e da. BKH khng ch l vn mi trng
m cn l vn kinh t x hi - vn pht trin bn vng. Chnh
v vy, bin i kh hu l vn kinh t v a l chnh tr trng
tm ca th k XXI.
ng trc nhng nguy c b tc ng do BKH, th gii c
n lc trong cc hnh ng thch ng nh: Cng c khung ca
Lin Hp Quc v BKH (UNFCCC); Ngh nh th Kyoto (KP),
Hi ngh ln th 15 cc bn tham gia Cng c khung ca Lin
Hip quc v bin i kh hu (COP 15) v Hi ngh ln th 5 cc
bn tham gia Ngh nh th Kyoto (CMP5) ti Copenhegen, an
Mch, Hi ngh ca Lin Hip Quc v bin i kh hu ln th 16
(COP-16) ti Cancun, Mexico v hng lot cc ti liu v vic
gim pht thi KNK, v bo v mi trng... lin quan n
BKH ton cu.
79

Trong nhng nm gn y, Vit Nam tch cc tham gia vo

cc tha thun v cng c Quc t c lin quan n BKH.
Tuy khng phi l quc gia thuc danh sch phi gim pht thi
KNK nhng Vit Nam cng tng cng p dng c ch pht trin
sch. Ngn sch dnh cho cc hot ng thch ng vi BKH
cng tng ng k. Vit Nam ban hnh kp thi cc vn bn
php lut lin quan n vic thch ng v gim nh tc ng ca
BKH; tng cng cc d n v BKH v hon thnh thng
bo quc gia u tin cho ban th k Cng c vo nm 2003
xy dng v trin khai Chng trnh Mc tiu quc gia v ng
ph vi Bin i kh hu.
Trong thi gian qua, nhn thc v nguyn nhn v tc hi ca
BKH cng nh cc hot ng thch ng ca th gii c nhng
bc tin ng k. Tuy nhin BKH hin vn din bin phc tp
v trong tng lai, hnh tinh ca chng ta s phi i mt vi
nhiu thch thc m vn BKH t ra. Do , bn cnh nhng
n lc trong vic d bo din bin v cc tc ng ca BKH
cng nh vic tng nng lc thch ng vi BKH, mt n lc
thit thc nht cho mi ngi l cn nng cao nhn thc ca cng
ng v bin i kh hu cng l mt trng tm ca Chng
trnh Mc tiu quc gia v bin i kh hu ca Vit Nam.

4.1.2. Khoa hc v bin i kh hu

S bin i ca kh hu l hin tng t nhin, th hin bng s
thay i ca h thng kh hu v thi tit trn Tri t. Thut ng
BKH c hiu l s bin i trng thi ca kh hu so vi trung
bnh v/ hoc dao ng ca kh hu duy tr trong mt khong thi
gia di, thng l vi thp k hoc di hn. Tuy nhin, hin tng
80

bin i kh hu thng c xc nh l s nng ln ca Tri t

do nh hng ca hiu ng nh knh gy ra bi cc hot ng kinh
t x hi ca con ngi, c bit l s dng nhin liu ha thch v
trong khai thc s dng t lm thay i thnh phn ca kh quyn.
Hnh 4.1 m t s hnh thnh hiu ng nh knh trong iu kin
t nhin trc khi c tc ng mnh bi cc hot ng ca con
ngi. Tri t ca chng ta lun c si m nh s c mt
ca cc thnh phn (c gi l cc kh nh knh - KNK) nh hi
nc, CO2, CH4, N2O, ozn. Hiu ng nh knh l qu trnh nng
ln mt cch t nhin do s c mt ca cc KNK trong kh quyn.
Cc kh ny gy ra mt hiu ng ging nh hin tng m ln bn
trong cc nh knh nn c gi l hiu ng nh knh (green house
effect). C ch ca hin tng hiu ng nh knh nh sau: cc nh
sng nhn thy c th i qua bu kh quyn m khng b hp th.
Mt phn lng nh sng ny n c Tri t (1), b hp th v
c chuyn ha thnh nhit lm cho b mt Tri t nng ln.
B mt Tri t (2) li ta nhit vo kh quyn; mt phn lng
nhit ny (3) c cc KNK hp th, mt phn quay tr li Tri
HIU NG KH NH KNH
HIU NG KH NH KNH TRONG IU KIN T NHIN
Hiu ng kh nh knh l qu trnh nng ln t nhin. Carbon
dioxide (CO2) v cc loi kh ga khc lun tn
ti trong kh quyn. Cc kh ny
ny to ra hiu ng tng nhit
tng t nh hiu ng gi
nhit trong nh knh,
do gi l Hiu
ng nh knh

S GIA TNG HIU NG KH NH KNH

Vic tng cc kh nh knh s lm tng hiu ng nh knh.
Hin tng ny ang xy ra trn ton cu , c bit 2 th
k gn y tnh t sau khi cuc
Cch mng Cng nghip xy ra

Hnh 4.1. Hiu ng nh knh (Ngun: The National Academy of Sciences, USA).

81

t (4) v mt phn c gii phng vo v tr (5). Tuy nhin,

t khi c cch mng cng nghip, cc hot ng ca con ngi
thi nhiu KNK hn v do gy ra hin tng hiu ng nh knh
gia tng (Enhanced green house effect) hay cn c gi l hin
tng nng ln ton cu (Global warming). l do quy trnh
(3), cc KNK c nng tng ln nhiu so vi trc (6) hp
th nhiu nhit hn.
Ngoi mt s kh ni trn, cc kh SF6, HFCs, CFCs, HCFCs,
PFCs c thi ra t sau thi k cng nghip ha cng gp phn
gy nn hiu ng nh knh.
Lng pht thi KNK do t nhin liu ha thch hng nm t
6,4 t tn Carbon mi nm trong thp nin 90 ca th k trc
ln ti 7,2 t tn trong giai on 1960 - 2005.
Trong s cc kh chnh gy hiu ng nh knh, CO2 c coi l
kh c nh hng nhiu nht. Theo Bo co khoa hc ln th 4
(2007) ca Ban Lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu (IPCC) cho
thy, nng CO2 trong kh quyn t 280ppm (phn triu th
tch) vo nhng nm trc thi k cng nghip ha tng ln
379 ppm vo nm 2005, trung bnh mi nm tng 1,4 ppm vo
giai on 1960 - 2005 v 1,9 ppm vo 10 nm giai on 1995
- 2005. Ngoi ra, nng CH4 v N20 tng ng t 715 ppb
(phn t th tch) vo thi k tin cng nghip tng ln 1774
ppb vo nm 2005.
Cc nhu cu v sinh hot, sn xut ca con ngi l nhn t ch
o iu chnh mi quan h gia cc nhn t cn li trong s
trn. Nng nghip l ngun pht sinh Nit chnh; cng nghip
l ngun chnh pht sinh kh CO2 v mt s KNK khc. S pht
82

trin ngnh nng nghip v cng nghip p ng cc nhu cu

ca con ngi s lm thay i hin trng s dng t v cc nhn
t ni trn u c tc ng n BKH ton cu.
Ngun ch o gy ra s tng nng cc KNK l qu trnh t
cc nhin liu ha thch trong qu trnh sn xut. Theo thng k
th lnh vc cung cp nng lng l ngun pht sinh nhiu KNK
nht, chim ti 25,9% tng lng KNK c thi ra t cc hot
ng ca con ngi. Cng nghip pht sinh 19,4% lng KNK
ch yu do s dng cc nhin liu ha thch. Suy thoi rng
(bao gm gim din tch rng, chy rng) pht sinh khong
17,4% lng KNK. Nng nghip v giao thng mc tng
ng, mi ngnh pht sinh khong 13% lng KNK. cc
nc ang pht trin th nng nghip v giao thng l ngun
pht KNK ng k. i vi ngnh nng nghip, vic s dng t
cha hp l i i vi vic s dng phn bn v thuc bo v
thc vt qu mc l cc nguyn nhn ch yu dn ti tng lng
kh Nit thi vo khng kh (thng qua qu trnh tch Nit cc
hp cht c trong phn bn v thuc bo v thc vt tn d trong
t iu kin nng v m ca vng nhit i). C cu pht sinh
KNK t cc loi ngun thi c th hin trong hnh 4.2.
Mt s biu hin ca bin i kh hu trong thi gian qua nh sau:
- Theo s liu quan trc kh hu cc nc cho thy, Tri t
ang nng ln vi s gia tng ca nhit bnh qun ton
cu v nhit nc bin; bng v tuyt v ang tan trn
phm vi rng lm cho din tch bng Bc cc v Nam cc
thu hp ng k, dn n mc nc bin ang cao. Theo nh
gi ng tin cy nht th trong khong thi gian t nm 1906
n nm 2005, nhit trn ton cu tng trong phm vi
83

0,58-0,920C, trung bnh 0,740C, tng nhanh trong vng 50

nm gn y (hnh 4.3). S nng ln ton cu t gia th k
20 l do s gia tng ca hm lng KNK do con ngi gy ra.
- S thay i thnh phn v cht lng kh quyn c hi cho
mi trng sng ca con ngi v cc sinh vt trn Tri t:
nng cc kh trong kh quyn thay i theo chiu hng
tng nng cc kh gy hiu ng nh knh. Nng CO2
tng khong 31%; nng N2O tng khong 151%; nng
CH4 tng 248%; cc kh khc cng c nng tng ng
k so vi thi k trc cng nghip ha; mt s kh nh cc
dng khc nhau ca kh HFC, PFC, SF l nhng kh ch mi
xut hin sau cuc cch mng cng nghip (hnh 4.4).
- Kt qu phn tch cho thy, ni chung, trong phm vi 300-850
v Bc, ma trn t lin tng trong th k 20, nhng trong
phm vi 100 v Nam n 300 v Bc th ma gim ng k
trong 40 nm qua. Trong phm vi 100-300 v Bc, c du hiu
ma tng trong thi gian t nm 1900 n nm 1950, nhng
gim t khong sau nm 1970. Nhng trn ma ln s xut
hin thng xuyn hn. Cng nhng trn ma cng s
tng ln, c bit l cc vng nhit i v v cao, ni
lng ma bnh qun tng; nhng c xu th kh hn cc
khu vc gia cc lc a, dn n nguy c hn hn cc khu
vc ny tng ln. Trn phn ln cc khu vc nhit i v v
cao, ma d di s tng nhiu hn so vi ma trung bnh.
- Bc thot hi tim nng s tng ln hu ht cc ni. Do
, t sau nm 1970, hn hn xut hin thng xuyn hn
vng nhit i v cn nhit i.
84

Hnh 4.2: T l thi kh nh knh t cc hot ng

ca con ngi theo tng ngnh, lnh vc nm 2004
(Ngun: Olivier v nnk, 2005-2006).

Hnh 4.3: Bin i ca nhit b mt Tri t theo

thi gian (Ngun: IPCC, 2007).

85

Hnh 4.4: Xu hng bin i mt s kh nh knh n

1/2003 (Ngun: IPCC, 2007).

- Hot ng ca xoy thun nhit i (XTN), c bit l cc

cn bo mnh, gia tng t nm 1970 v ngy cng xut hin
nhiu hn cc cn bo c qu o bt thng.
- Bin i trong ch hon lu quy m ln trn cc lc a v
i dng, dn n s gia tng v s lng v cng hin
tng El Nin.
- T s liu quan trc cng cho thy, cc thnh phn ca chu
trnh thy vn c s bin i trong v i thp nin qua, nh
gia tng hm lng hi nc trong kh quyn; ma thay i
c v lng ma, dng ma, cng v cc cc tr ma;
gim bng tuyt che ph trn din rng; m t v dng
chy thay i.
86

- Ti nguyn nc b tn thng v b tc ng mnh bi bin

i kh hu v do gy nn nhng hu qu bt li i vi loi
ngi v cc h sinh thi. D bo rng, vo gia th k ny,
do bin i kh hu nn dng chy nm trung bnh ca sng
sui s tng ln cc khu vc v cao v mt vi khu vc
nhit i m, nhng gim mt s khu vc nm v
va v khu vc nhit i kh. Nhiu bng chng cho thy,
dng chy nm c nhng thay i trn phm vi ton
cu vi s gia tng dng chy mt s vng (v cao v
phn nhiu cc ni M), nhng li gim cc vng khc
(nh mt s ni Ty chu Phi, Nam chu u v cc nam
ca Nam M (Milly et al., 2005 v nhiu nghin cu khc
trn pham vi lu vc). S dao ng gia cc nm ca dng
chy cn chu nh hng bi s bin i ca ch hon
lu trn quy m ln nh cc hin tng: ENSO (El Nino Sourthern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) v
PNA (Pacific - North American). Mt nghin cu cho rng,
trong th k 20, tng lng dng chy ton cu tng ln
cng vi s gia tng ca nhit vi mc tng 4% / 10C (Labat
et al, 2004).
- Mc nc bin trung bnh ton cu tng ln vi mc tng
trung bnh khong 1,70,5 mm/nm trong thi k t gia th
k 19 n gia th k 20, 1,80,5 mm/nm trong giai on
t nm 1961 n nm 2003 v c bit tng nhanh trong giai
on t nm 1993 n nm 2003 vi mc 3,10,7 mm/nm
(theo IPCC). S dng cao mc nc bin do tan bng dn
ti s ngp ng ca cc vng t thp, cc o nh trn bin
(hnh 4.5).
87

Hnh 4.5: Bin i mc nc bin theo thi gian

(Ngun: IPCC, 2007).

- S di chuyn ca cc i kh hu tn ti hng nghn nm

trn cc vng khc nhau ca Tri t dn ti nguy c e do
s sng ca cc loi sinh vt, cc h sinh thi v hot ng
ca con ngi: bin i kh hu gy hin tng di c ca cc
loi ln vng c v cao; gy nguy c dit vong cho 1/3 s
loi hin c trn Tri t. Theo cnh bo ca Qu ng vt
hoang d Th gii, tnh trng nng ln ca kh hu Tri t
nu khng c kim sot c th y 72% s loi chim trn
hnh tinh ti b vc ca s tuyt chng;
- S thay i cng hot ng ca qu trnh hon lu kh
quyn, chu trnh tun hon nc trong t nhin v cc chu
trnh sinh a ha khc. c bit, s bin i trong ch hon
lu quy m ln trn cc lc a v i dng, dn n s gia
tng v s lng v cng hin tng El Nin.
88

- S thay i nng sut sinh hc ca cc h sinh thi, cht lng

v thnh phn ca thu quyn, sinh quyn, cc a quyn
Bin i kh hu l vn c lin quan ti c lnh vc mi trng
v kinh t-x hi. Cc nhn t chu nh hng ca s bin i kh
hu bao gm:
- Kinh t ton cu: theo ti liu nghin cu ca Ngn hng Th
gii, BKH c th lm gim ti 20-30% GDP trn ton cu.
Cc trn bo, l lch s xy ra trong thi gian gn y gy
thit hi kinh t trm trng cho nhiu Quc gia. Chng hn nh
bo Katrina b vo min Nam nc M ngy 29/8/2005
vi sc gi mnh nht trn 260 km/h (siu cp) lm thit mng
1.300 ngi, thit hi c tnh trn 125 t USD. Ngoi ra,
BKH vi cc nh hng ca n l nguyn nhn dn ti gim
nng sut trong sn xut nng nghip; tng chi ph cho cc
dch v x hi
- i sng v sc kho ca con ngi: BKH c th l tc
nhn lm tng tn sut xut hin cc hin tng l lt, hn
hn khng nhng ch gy thit hi v kinh t m cn lm mt
i sinh mng hng triu ngi trn th gii; nhit Tri t
tng lm hng trm nghn ngi cht v nng, ng thi
cng l nguyn nhn lm tng cc bnh truyn nhim;
- H sinh thi: BKH lm thay i mt s yu t quan trng
ca h sinh thi nh thay i s dng t, cht nhim,
thay i kh hu t nhin. Nhng thay i ca h sinh thi
s dn ti thay i mi trng sng cng nh s phn b
ca ng vt hoang d v lm gim a dng sinh hc.
89

4.1.3. Bin i kh hu trn th gii, khu vc Chu v

Vit Nam
1) Bin i kh hu trn th gii
Theo bo co nh gi ca IPCC, BKH ton cu s tip tc din
bin phc tp trong th k 21 do lng pht thi cc KNK ang
tip tc tng:
- Nng CO2 tng khong 60% vo nm 2050 v t 535
983 ppm vo nm 2100 (tng 41-158% so vi nm 2006);
- Nng CH4 t 1.46-3.39 ppm vo nm 2100 (gim 18%
hoc tng 91% so vi nm 2006);
- Nng N2O t 0.36-0.46 ppm vo nm 2100
(tng 11-45% so vi nm 2006);
- Cc kh c cha Flo nh HFCs, PFCs, SF6 cng s tng ng k;
- Nng ozn trong kh quyn s tng 40-60% theo kch bn
pht thi cao. Nu tnh theo cc phng n pht thi thay i
t thp-trung bnh-cao th nng ozn tng t 12-62% vo
nm 2100 (hnh 4.6).

Hnh 4.6: D bo bin i nng mt s kh gy hiu ng nh

knh n nm 2100 (Ngun: IPCC, 2007).

90

Do nh hng ca cc kh gy hiu ng nh knh, nhit Tri t

tip tc tng v t t (1.4-5.8)OC vo nm 2100. Hnh 4.7 biu
hin s bin i ca nhit Tri t c d bo theo cc m hnh
khc nhau.
Nhit nc bin tng khong 1,5-4,50C s lm cho mc nc
bin dng cao 15-90cm. Theo d on, nu mc nc bin dng
cao 1m, Bangladesh s mt 17,5% din tch, e da n nhng
loi ng thc vt ven bin v ngun nc sch. H Lan cng s
hng chu mt hu qu tng t vi s bin mt khong 6% din
tch. n v Trung Quc cng phi i mt vi nguy c ny
trong 50 nm ti. ng lo ngi, theo thng bo ca Lin Hp
Quc, Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nc chu nh hng nng
n nht khi nc bin dng cao. Cng theo t chc ny, 12,3%
din tch t trng trt v km theo gn 1/5 dn s s mt
nh ca nu mc nc bin dng cao 1 mt; 80% din tch ca
o Majuro Atoll Thi Bnh Dng b ngp chm di nc
nu mc nc bin dng cao 0,5 mt. Ngoi ra, rt nhiu hn
o Nam Thi Bnh Dng v n Dng nh Maldives v
French Polynesia c nguy c bin mt nu mc nc bin tip
tc dng cao.
C khong 13 trong s 15 thnh ph ln nht th gii nh New
York, Tokyo... v rt nhiu thnh ph nh khc nm dc b bin
c nguy c ngp lt khi nc bin dng. Hn mt th k qua, xp
x 70% din tch t ven bin b xm thc do mc nc bin dng
cao v xi l.
91

Hnh 4.7: D bo s thay i nhit Tri t

n nm 2100 [4.1].
Cc t vit tt trong hnh 4.7:
- CCSR/NIES: Trung tm nghin cu h thng kh hu v Vin nghin cu mi trng Quc gia; S
dng m hnh CCSR/NIES AGCM + CCSR OGCM Models 1890-2100.
- CCCma: Trung tm phn tch v xy dng m hnh kh hu Canada. S dng m hnh CGCm2 Model
1900-2100
- CSIRO: T chc nghin cu cng nghip v khoa hc v sc khe. S dng m hnh CSIRO-Mk2
model 1961-2100.
- Hadley Centre: Trung tm nghin cu v d bo kh hu Hadley. S dng m hnh HADCM3 model
1950-2099.
- GFDL: Phng nghin cu bin ng cc cht lng theo a vt l. S dng m hnh R30 Model
1961-2100.
- MPI-M: Vin kh tng Max Planck. S dng m hnh ECHAM4/OPYC coupled model 1990-2100.
- NCAR PCM: Trung tm nghin cu kh quyn Quc gia. S dng m hnh PCM model 1980-2099.
- NCAR CSM: Trung tm cu kh quyn Quc gia. S dng m hnh CSM Model 2000-2099.

92

Hnh 4 8: D bo s thay i ca mc nc bin n nm 2100 [41].

Trong bng 4.1 a ra d bo mc gia tng trung bnh ton cu ca

nhit khng kh v mc nc bin theo cc kch bn bin i kh
hu khc nhau.
ng ph vi BKH ton cu c thc hin trn phm vi khu
vc cng nh trn ton th gii. Nguyn tc then cht tn ti
cng vi s BKH ang din ra l: tm phng cch ng ph hp
l v kp thi trc cc din bin phc tp ca BKH.
Cng c khung ca Lin hip quc v Bin i kh hu (UNFCCC)
ra i nm 1992 l mt trong nhng iu c quc t quan trng
cc nc cng chung sc i ph vi thch thc ny.
Ngh nh th Kyoto (KP) a ra 3 c ch mm do cho php cc
nc pht trin thc hin cam kt gim pht thi kh nh knh ca
h. C th l c ch ng thc hin, c ch bun bn quyn pht
thi v c ch pht trin sch.
93

Bng 4.1: D bo mc gia tng trung bnh ton cu ca nhit khng

kh v mc nc bin theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu khc nhau
(Ngun: IPCC 2007).

Trng hp

Bin i ca nhit (0C)

(Giai on 2090 - 2099 so
vi giai on 1980-1999)a

Mc dng cao ca mc nc bin (m)

(Giai on 2090 - 2099 so vi
giai on 1980 - 1999)

nh gi
Phm vi
Phm vi m hnh c s ngoai tr s bin i
tt nht c th xy ra ng lc ca dng chy bng trong tng lai
Hm lng KNK khng
i mc nm 2000b

0,6

0,3 - 0,9

Kch bn B1

1,8

1,1 - 2,9

0,18 - 0,38

Kch bn A1T

2,4

1,4 - 3,8

0,20 - 0,45

Kch bn B2

2,4

1,4 - 3,8

0,20 - 0,43

Kch bn A1B

2,8

1,7 - 4,4

0,21 - 0,48

Kch bn A2

3,4

2,0 - 5,4

0,23 - 0,51

Kch bn A1FI

4,0

2,4 - 6,4

0,26 - 0,59

Ghi ch: - Khng c s liu

a: S nh gi ny c nh gi t mt h thng m hnh,
bao gm mt m hnh kh hu n gin, mt s m hnh
Tri t c mc phc tp va phi v s ln m hnh hon
lu ton cu kh quyn - i dung (AOGCMs).
b: Hm lng kh nh knh (KNK) c nh nm 2000 c
ly t AOGCMs.

94

Mt trong 3 c ch mm do ca Ngh nh th l C ch pht trin

sch (CDM). y l c ch i tc gia nhng nc pht trin v
nhng nc ang pht trin vi mc tiu gip cc nc ang pht
trin t c s pht trin bn vng, gp phn n nh nng
kh nh knh trong kh quyn mc c th ngn nga c s
can thip nguy him ca con ngi i vi h thng kh hu. ng
thi, gip cc nc pht trin thc hin cam kt v hn ch v gim
pht thi nh lng kh nh knh.
Ngh nh th Kyoto a ra cam kt i vi cc nc pht trin
v gim tng lng pht thi kh nh knh thp hn vi t l trung
bnh 5,2% trong giai on cam kt u tin (2008-2012) theo cc
nc ct gim c th. Trong , cc nc Cng ng chu u
(EU) l 8%; Hoa K 7%; Nht Bn 6%. Mt mc tiu na ca
Ngh nh th Kyoto l kim sot cc kh nh knh CO2, CH4,
N2O, HFCS v SF6.
2) Bin i kh hu khu vc Chu
Trong vi thp nin gn y trn khp chu quan trc thy
lng ma bin i trong khng gian v theo thi gian (gia cc
ma v gia cc nm). Lng ma nm trung bnh c xu th gim
Nga, ng Bc v Bc Trung Quc, di ven bin thuc cc ng
bng chu th Pakistan, mt vi khu vc n , Inonesia,
Philippines v mt s khu vc Nht; nhng li tng mt s vng
Trung Quc (Ty Nam Trung Quc, lu vc Trng Giang v
vng ven bin ng Nam), bn o A Rp, Bangladesh v dc b
bin pha Ty ca Philippines. Ni chung, tn sut cc trn ma d
di tng ln nhiu vng chu , c bit l ng Nam chu
do c lin quan vi hin tng El Nin, gy nn l lt, trt l
t v l qut rt nghim trng [28].
95

+ Hn hn xy ra thng xuyn v khc nghit hn nhiu ni

do nhit khng kh tng ln, c bit l trong ma h v cc
thng kh hn in hnh v trong giai on xut hin cc hin
tng ENSO.
+ Nhn chung, bng tan vi tc khng i t nhng nm 60
ca th k trc.
+ Dng chy sng sui bin i mnh c v lng, cht v ch
nc do tc ng ca bin i kh hu. Dng chy bin
i ng k mt s vng thuc Nga, nh dng chy kit
cc oan xut hin thng xuyn hn trong ma v sn xut.
Dng chy ca mt s sng chnh nh cc sng Euphrates v
Tigris c th b gim Th d, Libanon, dng chy nm c th
s dng s gim khong 15% khi nhit tng 1,20C vi kch
bn kh hu tng gp i CO2, trong khi c th tng dng
chy ma ng v ma xun (Bou - Zeid v El-Fadel, 2002).
So vi giai on 1961-1990, d bo dng chy thng ln nht
ca sng M Cng tng tng ng khong (35-41)% i vi
ton lu vc v (16-19)% ng bng chu th vi gi tr
di ng vi giai on cc nm 2010-2039 v gii hn trn
ng vi giai on cc nm 2070-2099 so vi giai on cc nm
1961-1990. Ngc lai, dng chy thng nh nht c th gim
17-24% i vi ton lu vc v 26-29% i vi ng bng
chu th (Hoanh et al., 2004). Hu qu l nguy c l lt s gia
tng trong ma ma l v khan him nc trong ma kh cn.
+ Ti nguyn nc phn b khng u chu v xut hin
cng thng nc trong nhiu khu vc. Theo FAO (2004),
trong s 43 nc chu , mc bo m ti nguyn nc
cho mt u ngi trong mt nm nh sau: 20 nc c mc
96

bo m trn 3.000 m3, 11 nc c mc bo m khong

(1.0003.000)m3 v 6 nc c mc bo m di 1.000 m3
(khng xt 6 quc gia khng c s liu). Mc bo m nc
di 1.000 m3/nm/ngi c coi l b cng thng v nc.
Bin i kh hu s cng lm cho tnh trng khan him, thiu
nc v cng thng v nc trm trng hn. Nam v
ng Nam chu , s gia tng s ngi sinh sng trong
cc khu vc cng thng v nc. Kt qu nh gi theo cc
kch bn trong Bo co c bit v cc kch bn pht thi
(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES) nm 2000
ca IPCC, s ngi b cng thng v nc chu khong
t 120 triu n 1,2 t ngi vo thp nin 2020 v t 185
triu n 981 triu ngi vo thp nin 2050 (Amell, 2004).
+ Nhng bin i ca dng chy sng, sui s nh hng ng
k n sn lng thy in ca nhiu quc gia.
+ H sinh thi: BKH gy nn hin tng cc h sinh thi c xu
hng di chuyn v cc vng cc. iu ny c ngha l cc
qun x sinh vt n i nh cc tho nguyn v rng n i
s thay th cho phn ln cc rng taiga Siberian. cc vng
Trung v ng , cc trng c kh c nguy c b sa mc ha
do lng ma cc vng ny gim i.
+ Ch gi ma: Tri t nng ln lm tng cng h thng
ENSO, gy ra nhiu bin i d thng ca ch gi ma
c lc a, dn n hn hn v tht thot ma mng.
+ ENSO: hin tng El Nin tng ln s gy hn hn v chy
rng t nhin ng Nam Chu .
97

+ Nng nghip: phn ln cc cy trng Chu rt nhy cm

vi nhit v m. Bi vy, s nng ln ca ton cu s
lm thay i cn bng trong h sinh thi nng nghip, gy gim
nng sut cy trng. Nhu cu nc cho nng nghip trong cc
vng kh v bn kh hn s tng ln t nht khong 10% khi
nhit tng 10C.
+ Xi l vng ven bin: cng nh cc nc khc trn th gii,
mc nc bin tng ln s l thch thc ln i vi Chu .
Tuy nhin, mt s nc ng Nam s b nh hng nghim
trng hn, trong Bangladesh v Vit Nam s d b nh
hng nht.
+ Xoy lc nhit i: Ty Thi Bnh Dng l vng in hnh c
nhiu bo so vi cc vng khc trn th gii v theo d bo ca
mt s nh khoa hc th bo s cng tng cng c v s lng
v cng do nh hng ca s tng nhit ton cu.
Bn cnh , d bo t cc trung tm kh tng thy vn trn th
gii cho bit, bng tan nh Himalaya lm gia tng l lt, l
cc sn ni v tc ng n ngun nc trong hai n ba th k
ti. Tip sau s l giai on dng chy ca sng sui suy gim v
cc sng bng b thu hp.
Nc ngt cha trong cc lu vc sng ln thuc ng , Nam ,
Trung v ng Nam s b suy gim do BKH v s gia tng
dn s, gia tng nhu cu s dng nc phc v cuc sng. iu ny
s tc ng tiu cc ti hn mt t ngi vo nm 2050.
Cc khu vc duyn hi, c bit cc ng bng ln, ng dn
Nam , ng v ng Nam s i mt vi nhng ri ro ln
98

nht do nc bin dng v mt s chu th rng ln b ngp lt do

nc sng.
Bin i kh hu s tc ng n s pht trin bn vng ca hu
ht cc nc ang pht trin ti Chu do n to p lc i vi
mi trng v ti nguyn thin nhin cng vi qu trnh th
ho, cng nghip ho v pht trin kinh t. Ngi ta c tnh rng,
vo gia th k 21, sn lng ma mng c th tng 20% khu
vc ng v ng Nam , nhng khu vc Trung v Nam ,
sn lng s st gim 30%. Tc ng ca vic tng trng dn
s v qu trnh th ho nhanh chng km theo s to nn nguy
c cao v thiu lng thc mt s nc ang pht trin. khu
vc ng , Nam v ng Nam , bin i kh hu gy nn
s bin i ca chu trnh thu vn khin hn hn v ngp lt gia
tng, dn n dch bnh v t vong do tiu chy. S gia tng nhit
nc cc vng duyn hi s lm trm trng thm bnh dch
t ti khu vc Nam .
3) Bin i kh hu ng Nam
cc quc gia ng Nam , ngy cng nhiu kh thi nh knh
thi vo kh quyn. Trong tng lai, vn ny c th tc ng
xu n iu kin mi trng v cnh quan kh hu khu vc. Theo
d bo ca Trung tm nghin cu nng lng Chu -Thi Bnh
Dng (APERC, c quan do Din n APEC bo tr), t nm 2002
ti 2030, lng kh thi nh knh ti ng Nam c kh nng s
tng gp 4 ln - gp i Nht Bn v bng khong 1/3 ca M, 1/4
ca Trung Quc [27].
Nghim trng hn, mc hp th t nhin cc loi kh thi nh
knh ti ng Nam ang c chiu hng gim do nn ph rng,
99

c bit ti cc khu vc vn c thm thc vt bao ph nh o

Kalimantan (Indonesia), bang Sarawak v Sabah trn o Borneo
(Malaysia) v khu vc min ni dc theo sng M Cng trn a
phn cc nc Vit Nam, Lo, Campuchia, mt s khu vc ca
Myanmar, Thi Lan.
Theo Bo co ca APERC, d tnh n nm 2030, bnh qun
mi ngi dn ng Nam s thi 4,2 tn kh CO2 , thp hn
mc bnh qun ti Trung Quc (6,7 tn), Nht Bn (10,8 tn) v
M (23 tn). Th nhng, nu so snh cc trung tm th ln
ca ng Nam nh: Bangkok, Jakarta, k c Singapo vi cc
thnh ph ln trong cc nc ang pht trin th c th nhn thy
tnh trng nhim mi trng ti ng Nam cng rt nghim
trng. Singapore - thnh ph c nh gi l xanh, sch nht
ng Nam , nhng nm 2002, lng kh CO2 bnh qun u
ngi thi vo kh quyn cng t ti 12,2 tn, c th tng ti
18,8 tn vo nm 2030, kh cao so vi nhiu nc.
V th, ng Nam c d bo l mt trong nhng khu vc
d b tc ng nht trc tnh trng bin i kh hu Tri t,
do phn ln trong s 500 triu dn ca vng ng Nam sng
trong cc khu vc ng bng chu th hoc cc qun o c
cao tng i thp so vi mc nc bin. Nhng khu vc
ny rt d b ngp nu mc nc bin dng ln do hin tng
Tri t nng ln. Tuy nhin, vn ny cha nhn c s
quan tm ng mc ca d lun v chnh quyn cc nc.
Nhng bin i chnh ca kh hu trong vng ng Nam nh
sau [27]:
Trong 50 nm gn y, nhit khng kh b mt bnh qun
vng ng Nam tng khong 0,1-0,30C/ thp nin. D
100

bo trong th k 21 s nng hn. Theo IPCC (2000), vi kch

bn A1FI, vo cui th k 21, nhit c th tng trong phm
vi 2,5 60C, bnh qun 40C so vi giai on 1980 - 1999. Cng
theo IPCC (2007), nhit khng kh b mt bnh qun vng
ng Nam c th tng thm 0,75 - 0,870C vo nm 2039,
1,32 - 2,010C vo nm 2069 v 1,96 - 3,770C vo nm 2100.
Phn ln vng ng Nam s m hn trong sut c nm,
c bit l cc thng XII, I-II. D bo nhit bnh qun khu
vc vo cui th k 21, so vi nm 1990, tng 2,50C i vi
kch bn B2, 4,80C i vi kch bn A1FI.Trng hp khng
c cc gii php gim thiu ton cu, vo nm 2100, nhit
tng 2,41 - 2,620C i vi kch bn B2, 4,61 - 5,00C i
vi kch bn A1FI; nhit phn pha ty ng Nam s
cao hn so vi phn pha ng. Vi trng hp pht thi n
nh, theo kch bn bi quan nht, vo nm 2100, nhit bnh
qun vng ng Nam c th tng thp hn mc 2,30C vi
kch bn pht thi S550ppm v ch 1,80C vi kch bn pht
thi S450ppm so vi nm 1990. i vi kch bn S550, nhit
bnh qun vng ng Nam vo nm 2100 tng khong
1,85 - 2,00C i vi kch bn B2 v 2,18 - 2,360C i vi kch
bn A1FI. i vi kch bn S450ppm, nhit bnh qun tng
khong 1,36- 1,450C i vi kch bn B2 v 1,69 - 1,820C i
vi kch bn A1FI.
Lng ma c xu th gim trong giai on t nm 1960 n
nm 2000 (hnh 4.9). Kt qu d bo theo kch bn A1FI cho
thy, lng ma gim trong na u th k 21, nhng tng vo
cui th k 21 vi s dao ng mnh trong giai on t thng
III n thng V. Vo nm 2050, lng ma s tng khong
1% theo kch bn A1FI v 2,5% theo kch bn B1 vi s tng
101

Hnh 4.9: Bin i ca lng ma nm trong vng ng Nam

(1901 - 2005).

mnh t thng XII v kt thc vo thng V. Kh hu bin i

mnh gia cc vng do nh hng ca a hnh v bin. Lng
ma tng mnh di ni ch tuyn, c th xy ra trong giai
on t thng XII n thng V mt vi ni.
Trong vi thp nin va qua, cc hin tng thi tit cc oan
xy ra nhiu hn, nh t nm 1950 gia tng s ngy nng
nng vo ban ngy v lnh vo ban m; gim s ngy lnh
v ban ngy v nng v ban m; gia tng s trn ma d di
t nm 1900 n nm 2005; tng s cn XTN trong ma h
(thng VII- VIII) v ma thu (thng IX-X) vo nhng nm
xut hin ENSO mnh.
Trong vi thp nin va qua, mc nc bin dng cao vi
tc trung bnh khong 1-3mm/ nm, c bit dng nhanh
trong thp nin gn y vi tc 3,1mm/nm so vi 1,7102

2,4mm/nm trong sut th k 20, vi s khc nhau gia cc

ni. Vo nm 2100, d bo mc nc dng thm 40cm v c
s khc nhau gia cc kch bn: vi kch bn pht thi khng
n nh, mc nc bin tng 0,5m i vi kch bn B2 v 0,78
m i vi kch bn A1FI; vi S550, tng 0,43 m i vi kch
bn B2 v 0,47m i vi kch bn A1FI; vi S450, tng 0,36
m i vi kch bn B2 v 0,40 m i vi kch bn A1FI.
Bin i kh hu tc ng mnh m n ti nguyn nc trong
vng ng Nam , l vng c cc h thng sng ln. Nhng
h thng sng ny c vai tr rt quan trng i vi s pht
trin kinh t x hi, c bit l i vi sn xut nng nghip v
cng nghip. Trong lu vc ba h thng sng ln M Cng,
Hng, Chaophraya c nhiu khu vc sn xut la. Khong 60
triu dn h lu vc M Cng sinh sng nh cc ngun ti
nguyn thin nhin. C trong cc sng l ngun cung cp phn
ln cht m cho ngi dn.
Bc hi v thot hi tim nng tng ln cng vi s gia tng ca
nhit khng kh v do nh hng n lng v cht lng
nc cung cp cho sn xut nng nghip v cc nhu cu khc. Tnh
tht thng ca ma gy nn s bin i ca dng chy sng v
s bin i ny s nh hng n lng nc v cht lng nc
c tr trong cc h, h cha, sn lng thy in v ti; gy
nn gim dng chy sng vo cc nm El Nin nhng li tng vo
nhng nm La Nina do c nhiu cc trn ma ln c v lng v
cng ; dng chy do ma sinh ra s gy nn xi mn trn b
mt lu vc v trong lng sng, b sng; ct bn lng ng trong
cc h cha. Mc nc bin dng lm cho nc mn xm nhp vo
su trong sng v tng cha nc ngt di mt t; lm cho tnh
103

Bng 4.2: Tm tt tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc quan

trc c trong vng ng Nam [27]
Bin i kh hu
1. Nhit tng

2. Ma bin i

Tc ng ca bin i kh hu xy ra
Tng bc thot hi trong lu vc sng v trn b mt h
cha v cc thy vc khc, dn n gim ngun nc cung
cp cho sinh hot, ti v pht in;
Gim lng dng chy trong sng v mc nc trong cc h,
h cha, c bit l trong nhng nm xut hin El Nin, dn
n gim ngun nc sn c, tng cng thng v nc;
Tng dng chy sng, c bit l trong cc nm xut hin La
Nina, dn n tng ngun nc c sn trong mt s vng;

3. Mc nc bin dng

Tng dng chy, xi mn v ngp lt, nh hng n cht

lng ca nc mt v nc ngm.
Nc mn xm nhp su hn vo trong sng v tng cha
nc ngt, dn n ngun nc ngt b gim.

Ngun: The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review (2009).

trng thiu nc mt s khu vc cng trm trng. Trong bng 4.2

a ra tm tt tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc
quan trc c trong vng ng Nam .
S cng thng v nc tng ln trong mt s vng ng Nam ,
c bit l vo trong nhng nm El Nin, gy thit hi ma mng,
thiu nc ung v gim sn lng thy in.
Nhng nm gn y, ti nguyn nc trong vng ng Nam tr
nn cng thng khng ch do s gia tng dn s v pht trin kinh t
dn n nhu cu nc tng ln mnh m m cn do ma gim, nhit
tng cng vi s gia tng ca hin tng ESNO.
104

 Vit Nam, cng nh cc nc khc trong vng, bc thot hi

tng ln do nhit tng, dn n gim lng nc c th cung cp
cho ti v cc nhu cu khc.
Hin tng La Nina (lin quan vi ma ln) v xoy thun nhit
i gy nn ngp lt nghim trng cc lu vc sng trong
vng ng Nam , gy thit hi ln v ngi v ca ci. Vit
Nam, thit hi do l lt ng bng sng Hng v ng bng sng
Cu Long v ven bin Trung B trong giai on 1996 - 2001
lm ngp hng triu ngi nh, hng ngn trng hc, hng ngn
bnh vin, 1.684 ngi cht, din tch la b ngp 20.690- 401.342
ha; hng ngn trang tri, ao h nui trng thy sn b ph; thit hi
v kinh t ln ti 680 triu la. Trong thp nin gn y, l lt v
trt l t cc khu vc min ni Vit Nam tr nn thng
xuyn hn; s ngi cht do thin tai v kh hu bnh qun hng
nm khong 9,3 ngi/ triu ngi.
Bin i kh hu cng tc ng n dng chy ln nht v nh nht
trn cc sng chnh ng Nam . Theo nh gi ca y hi sng
M Cng quc t, so vi giai on 1960-1990, d bo dng chy
thng ln nht ca sng M Cng tng tng ng khong 35-41%
i vi ton lu vc, 16-19% ng bng chu th vi gi tr di
ng vi giai on cc nm 2010-2039 v gii hn trn ng vi giai
on cc nm 2070-2099 (IPCC, 2007). Tri li, dng chy thng
nh nht c th gim 17-24% i vi ton lu vc v 26-29% i vi
ng bng chu th. Hu qu l nguy c l lt s gia tng trong ma
ma l v khan him nc trong ma kh cn. (Hoanh et al, 2004).
Bin i kh hu s tc ng n ch dng chy ca sng M
Cng. h lu vc M Cng (t h lu Chiang Sean), so vi giai
on 1985-2000, dng chy ma l v ma cn vo giai on 2010105

2050 u tng i vi c hai kch bn B2 v A2. Vi kch bn A2,

mc tng ca dng chy ma l v ma cn tng ng khong
5,8-11,2% v 12,8-30%; kch bn B2 cho mc tng t hn, khong
1,9-5,3% i vi dng chy ma l v 10,6-26,2% i vi dng
chy ma cn. Do ; dng chy nm cng tng ln: 7,6-13,5% i
vi kch bn A2 v 4,1-9,9% i vi kch bn B2. Mc tng ca
dng chy nm cng nh hai ma l v cn tng i t hn h
lu. Ti Tn Chu trn sng Tin, mc tng ca dng chy nm,
dng chy ma l v dng chy ma cn tng ng l 7,6%, 5,8%
v 12,8% i vi kch bn A2 v 4,1%, 1,9% v 10,6% i vi
kch bn B2. Nu xt n tc ng kt hp ca bin i kh hu vi
khai thc s dng nc trn lu vc trong tng lai, th mc bin
i ca cc c trng dng chy l khc nhau trn cc phn ca
h lu lu vc sng M Cng. i vi kch bn A2, do tc dng
iu tit ca cc h cha, dng chy ma l t Kong Pong Chm
tr ln pha thng lu s gim khong 2,1-8,4%, nhng Pakse
tr xung li tng 1,1-3,2%; cn dng chy ma cn tng ng k:
40-76% t Phnom Penh tr ln pha thng lu, nhng ch
khong 20,1% ti Tn Chu; dng chy nm tng khong
6-12%. i vi kch bn B2, dng chy ma l gim
2,7-13,2%, nhng dng chy ma cn tng 17,1-73,5%, dn n
dng chy nm cng tng 0,2 - 0,9% [37].
Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n nng nghip: Nng nghip
vn l ngnh kinh t chnh vng ng Nam . Khong 115 triu
ngi sinh sng bng ngh nng. Trong nhng nm gn y, bin
i kh hu cng vi s gia tng dn s v pht trin cng nghip,
ngnh nng nghip trong vng gy p lc ng k n mi trng.
Nhit khng kh tng dn n bc thot hi tim nng cng tng
ln v do cng gy cng thng i vi ma mng, c bit l
106

nhng ni ngun cp nc b hn ch. Tc ng kt hp nng nng

v hn hn lm gim sn lng cy trng. Ma tht thng nh
hng n cng vic lm t, thi im gieo trng v thay i chu
trnh cuc i su b v do tc ng n nng nghip. Hn hn
trong nhng nm xy ra hin tng El Nin gy nn khan him,
thiu nc cho cy trng v tng su bnh c hi. Ma ln trong
nhng nm xy ra hin tng La Nina c th gy nn l lt, xi l,
trt l t, l qut rt nghim trng, nh hng ln n sn xut
nng nghip. Mc nc bin dng s lm cho mn t bin xm nhp
su vo trong h thng sng ngi, knh rch v ng rung v c
bit l lm ngp nhng vng t trng thp ng bng ven bin.
Bng 4.3 a ra kh nng tc ng ca bin i kh hu n nng
nghip v cc lnh vc ng Nam .
T nhng trnh by trn c th rt ra mt s nhn nh chung v tc
ng ca bin i kh hu vng ng Nam nh sau:
Bin i kh hu , ang v s tc ng n cc iu kin t
nhin v nhiu lnh vc kinh t x hi trong vng ng Nam
, trong c ti nguyn nc, c v lng v cht. Cc
hin tng thi tit v thy vn cc oan nh: ma ln, nng
nng, hn hn, l lt, xoy thun nhit i ang gia tng c
tn s v cng . Nhng tc ng ny lm gim sn xut
nng nghip (cc cy trng lng thc v cy cng nghip),
thy sn (c), lm nghip. Vng ng Nam ang c gng
chng nhng thit hi v t canh tc v vng b bin do
nc bin dng; s cn bo ngy cng nhiu hn v xi l b
bin, xm nhp mn cng nghim trng.
Mt lng ln ngi dn chu nh hng ca cc t bng n
bnh st rt v st xut huyt, nh hng nghim trng n
107

Bng 4.3: Kh nng tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc lnh vc

ng Nam [27]

Nng
nghip

TNN

Rng
v h
sinh thi

Sc
khe
Hin tng
thi tit
cc oan

Ngun: The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Rejional Review (2009).

sc khe v sn xut. Nhng nh hng ny c d bo s

gia tng do nhit tri t nng ln, ma bin i v nc
bin dng.
Do nm vng nhit i, nn ng Nam l vng kh hu
gi ma nn nhit cao, chu nh hng ca xoy thun nhit
i, El Nin v La Nina, nhng cc tr ma bin ng ln v
nhit cao hn. Bin i kh hu trong tng lai s lm cho
cc hin tng t nhin ny tr nn gay gt v bin i tht
thng, tc ng mnh m n con ngi, gia cm gia sc v
108

mi trng ni chung. Theo d bo ca IPCC (2007), vng

ng Nam s phi hng chu cc hin tng cc oan, nh
chy rng, dng t, bo, l, lt, trt l t, hn hn, sng bin
cao v cc bnh tt lin quan vi nc. Nng nng v cng
thng v nc do bin i kh hu c th xy ra s tranh chp
h sinh thi ni cao v cao nguyn. Mc nc bin dng s lm
ngp trn phm vi rng dc b bin v do lm gim cc bi
ct; tnh bn vng ca cc h sinh thi cy ngp mn v san h
s chu tc ng mnh.
Theo Wassmann et al.(2004) v the Stern Report (Stern 2007),
nc bin dng s nh hng n hng triu ngi sinh sng
cc khu vc thp trng Trung Quc, Bangladesh, n v
Vit Nam. Vo cui th k ny, vi mc nc bin dng trung
bnh ton cu 40cm, s ngi hng nm trn Th gii sinh
sng cc khu vc ven bin b nh hng bi ngp lt s tng
ln, t 13 triu n 90 triu ngi, khong 20% trong s
l vng ng Nam , c bit l cc quc gia Innsia,
Philippines, Thi Lan v Vit Nam [27].
Vng ng Nam l vng chu tc ng trc tip ca bin i
kh hu, nn kinh t ph thuc vo ti nguyn thin nhin, c
bit l nng nghip, lm nghip v ti nguyn b bin v bin
(bao gm du lch). Dn s ng v tng nhanh, phn ln ngi
dn sinh sng bng ngh nng, dn c v hot ng kinh t tp
trung dc b bin, c nhiu ngi sng di mc gii hn
ngho. Nhng yu t ny cng lm cho nhng khu vc ngho
ng Nam d chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu v ngho
i c th trm trng hn, c bit l v thu nhp, sinh k ca
ngi ngho v c hi nng cao sc khe. Vng ng Nam
109

 ang chu thch thc rt ln l lm th no ng ph vi

nhng tc ng ca bin i kh hu trong tng lai.
4) Bin i kh hu Vit Nam
Cng nh cc nc khc trn th gii, kh hu , ang v s bin
i trn lnh th Vit Nam. Kt qu phn tch cc s liu kh hu
cho thy, nhng bin i ch yu ca cc yu t kh hu v mc
nc bin nh sau [2]:
- Nhit : Trong 50 nm qua (19582007), nhit trung
bnh nm Vit Nam tng ln khong t 0,50C n 0,70C.
Nhit ma ng tng nhanh hn nhit ma h v nhit
cc vng kh hu pha Bc tng nhanh hn cc vng
kh hu pha Nam. Nhit trung bnh nm ca 4 thp nin
gn y (19612000) cao hn trung bnh nm ca 3 thp
nin trc (19311960). Nhit trung bnh nm ca
thp nin (19912000) H Ni, Nng v TP. H Ch
Minh u cao hn trung bnh ca thp nin (19311940)
tng ng l 0,8; 0,4 v 0,60C. Nm 2007, nhit trung
bnh nm c 3 ni ni trn u cao hn trung bnh ca thp
nin (19311940) khong (0,81,3)0C v cao hn thp nin
(19912000) khong (0,40,5)0C (hnh 4.10a).
- Lng ma: Trn tng a im, xu th bin i ca lng ma
trung bnh nm trong 9 thp nin va qua (1911 - 2000) khng
r rt theo cc thi k v trn cc vng khc nhau: c giai on
tng ln v c giai on gim xung. Lng ma nm gim
cc vng kh hu pha Bc v tng cc vng kh hu pha
Nam (hnh 4.10b). Tnh trung bnh trong c nc, lng ma
nm trong 50 nm qua (1958 - 2007) gim khong 2%.
110

Hnh 4.10 (a) : Bin trnh ca nhit v cc vng

ca Vit Nam trong 50 nm.

111

Hnh 4.10 (b) : Bin trnh ca lng ma cc vng

ca Vit Nam trong 50 nm.

112

Hnh 4.11: Qu o ca bo Ty Bc Thi Bnh

Dng v Bin ng.

- Khng kh lnh: S t khng kh lnh nh hng ti Vit

Nam gim i r rt trong hai thp nin va qua. Tuy nhin, cc
hin tng thi tit d thng li thng xut hin m gn y
nht l t khng kh lnh gy rt m, rt hi ko di 38 ngy
trong thng 1 v thng 2 nm 2008 v t rt ko di nhiu
ngy vo cui nm 2010 u nm 2011 Bc B.
- Bo: Trung bnh hng nm c khong 4 6 cn bo b vo
Vit Nam. Nhng nm gn y, ma bo ko di hn v kt
thc mun hn; ng i ca bo c xu th dch dn v pha
Nam v bo c cng mnh xut hin nhiu hn; nhiu cn
bo c ng i d thng (hnh 4.11).
- Ma phn: S ngy ma phn trung bnh nm H Ni gim
dn t thp nin 19811990 v ch cn gn mt na (15 ngy/
nm) trong 10 nm gn y.
113

- Bin i kh hu khng ch l s thay i cc c trng ca

kh hu m cn gy nn s thay i ca nhng hin tng
thi tit cc oan vi xu hng tng ln c v tn s v
cng :
Cc trn ma d di tng ln;
Hn hn xut hin thng xuyn v khc nghit hn.
Trong ma kh, Ty Nguyn v Nam B hu nh nm
no cng xut hin hn gay gt.
- Tn sut v cng El Nin tng ln r rt trong nhng
thp nin gn y. Trong 5 thp nin gn y, tc ng ca
hin tng ENSO ngy cng mnh m i vi ch thi
tit v kh hu trn nhiu khu vc Vit Nam. Bin i ca
ENSO v tc ng ca n n s bin i ca gi ma s nh
hng mnh hn i vi s bin i ca ma. Hin tng
ENSO cng nh hng n s thay i s xut hin, cng
v cc c trng ca XTN v s bin i ca n gia
cc nm.
- ven bin min Trung v Nam B, trong nhng thp nin
gn y, l lt ln v c bit ln xy ra nhiu hn v nghim
trng hn. ven bin min Trung, l c bit ln, l lch s
xy ra trn cc sng vo nhng nm 1996, 1998, 1999,
2000, 2003, 2008, 2009; cn ng bng sng Cu Long
xy ra vo cc nm: 1996, 2000, 2001 Ngoi ra, l qut
v trt l t xy ra nhiu hn, khc lit hn vng ni
Bc B, ven bin min Trung v Ty Nguyn. L lt, l qut
nh hng ln n mi trng v kinh t, x hi.
114

Hnh 4.12: Din bin ca mc nc bin ti trm hi

vn Hn Du.

- Mc nc bin: S liu quan trc ti cc trm hi vn dc

ven bin Vit Nam cho thy tc dng ln ca mc nc
bin trung bnh Vit Nam trong giai on 1993 2008 l
khong 3mm/nm, tng ng vi tc tng trung bnh
trn th gii. Trong khong 50 nm qua, mc nc bin ti
trm hi vn Hn Du dng ln khong 20 cm (hnh 4.12).
- Bin i kh hu nh nhit gia tng, bin i ca ma,
bao gm c ENSO v mc nc bin dng, cng v ang
nh hng n ti nguyn nc c v lng, lng nc v
ch dng chy ca cc sng:
Nhit khng kh tng ln v s lm cho tng lng
bc hi t cc thy vc (sng sui, ao h, h cha, m
ly), dn n gim ngun nc c th cung cp cho cc
115

nhu cu sinh hot, ti, cng nghip, thy in v cp

nc cho sn xut. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu l mt
trong nhng nguyn nhn gy nn tnh trng khan him
v thiu nc, c bit nghim trng trong ma kh vo
nhng nm gn y h lu sng Hng, BSCL v ven
bin min Trung.
S bin i tht thng ca ma gy nn suy gim lng
dng chy sng sui v lng nc c cha trong cc
h cha v ao h, c bit l vo nhng nm xut hin
hin tng El Nin mnh; dn n gim ngun nc c
th khai thc, s dng; gia tng tnh trng cng thng v
nc. Trong nhng nm xut hin La Nina, ma nhiu
v ln c th lm tng dng chy ma l v do gia
tng ngun nc c th khai thc, s dng mt s khu
vc. Gia tng dng chy, xi mn, ngp lt v l qut ,
ang v s nh hng nghim trng n cht lng nc
mt v nc di t.
Mc nc bin dng cao dn n mn xm nhp su
vo h thng sng ngi, knh rch v tng cha nc
ngm ng bng chu th sng Hng - Thi Bnh,
BSCL v cc ng bng ven bin min Trung, lm
cho nc nht (nc ngt) b nhim mn v do lm
gim lng nc nht c th khai thc, s dng. Theo
kt qu cc kch bn bin i kh hu c a ra,
nu mc nc bin dng cao (0,751) m so vi giai
on (1980 1999), th c thm khong 28% din tch
BSCL v ng bng sng Hng- l hai vng sn xut
116

la chnh ca Vit Nam b ngp; v do nh hng

nghim trng n sn xut lng thc cung cp cho
hn 86 triu dn Vit Nam v gn 100 triu dn trn th
gii. Vit Nam c b bin di khong 3.260 km, hn
mt triu km2 lnh hi v trn 3.000 hn o gn b v
hai qun o xa b l Hong Sa v Trng Sa, cng vi
nhiu vng t thp ven bin. Nc bin dng kt hp
vi nc dng do bo, sng ln, triu cng nh hng
ln n h tng c s (h thng bin, b bao, giao
thng, du lch, cng trnh dn sinh v quc phng)
vng ven b bin v nhng vng t thp nm dc theo
b bin. Nc bin dng cng s tc ng n cc m
ph, vng vnh, o nh, cc cn ct v bi tm, cc bi
ph sa, nh bt v nui trng thy sn.
Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nc trn th gii chu nhiu thin
tai, nh dng bo, l lt, l qut, trt l t, nng nng, hn
hn... Phn ln nhng thin tai ny lin quan n cc iu kin
thi tit khc nghit, tn s v cng ca nhng thin tai ny
ph thuc vo thi tit v kh hu trong tng ma. Do , bin
i kh hu s lm cho cc loi thin tai nu trn nguy him hn.
Nhng tc ng nu trn ca bin i kh hu , ang v s tc
ng mnh m n mi trng v s pht trin bn vng ca
Vit Nam. Ma ln, bo, ATN, l lt, nng nng, hn hn
gy thit hi nng cho kinh t v nh hng n an ninh lng
thc v an sinh x hi do ma mng b thit hi. Bin i kh hu
cng tc ng mnh m n mi trng t nhin. Mi trng
sng ca ca nhiu loi sinh vt, thc vt v ng vt thay i,
117

c bit l mt s loi ng vt hoang d (c ti 355 loi thc

vt v 365 loi ng vt ang c nguy c b e da); lm cho a
dng sinh hc b suy gim.
Vit Nam l mt trong cc quc gia trn th gii c nh gi l
s chu nh hng nghim trng ca bin i kh hu v nc bin
dng. Trong , ng bng chu th sng Hng v BSCL l hai
vng chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nc bin dng nhiu
nht. y l hai vng sn xut nng nghip chnh nhng a hnh
thp, phn ln ch cao hn 1 m so vi mc nc bin, thm ch c
ni thp di mc nc bin. Ngoi ra, theo cc chuyn gia Vit
Nam, trc mt c 3 khu vc chu tc ng r nht ca bin i
kh hu, l vng ni Ty Bc Vit Nam, cc Nam Trung B
(tnh Ninh Thun) v ven bin BSCL. vng ni Ty Bc s
c mt s loi thc - ng vt b tuyt chng do nhit tng.
tnh Ninh Thun, din tch b hoang mc ha tng nhanh, hn hn
khc lit v ko di dn n nguy c khng th tn ti mt s loi
ng thc vt. Vng ven bin BSCL, c bit l tnh Bn Tre,
do a hnh thp nht, c nhiu ca sng, c lao c a hnh thp,
nn c th b him ha ca bin i kh hu do xm nhp mn v
mc nc bin dng.

4.2. KCH BN BIN I KH HU

4.2.1. C s xy dng kch bn bin i kh hu v nc
bin dng trn th gii
Bin i kh hu , ang v s gy ra nhng hu qu nghim
trng i vi th gii t nhin, kinh t x hi (KTXH.) v mi
trng tt c cc vng trn th gii vi mc khc nhau. Do
118

, bin i kh hu l vn ton cu v cn c s gii quyt trn

phm vi ton th gii.
S bin i kh hu trong tng lai c d bo theo cc kch
bn khc nhau.
Kch bn bin i kh hu l gi nh c c s khoa hc v s tin
trin trong tng lai ca cc mi quan h gia kinh t - x hi,
pht thi KNK, BKH v mc nc bin dng.
Trong cc nghin cu ca IPCC, nhm cng tc 1 tng quan v
xut cc cc kch bn cho th k 21. Cc kch bn ny l c s
cho vic nh gi nhng tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc i
tng khc nhau ca t nhin, kinh t - x hi do nhm cng tc
2 thc hin v xy dng cc chin lc ng ph v gim nh bin
i kh hu trn phm vi ton cu do nhm cng tc 3 thc hin.
Bin i kh hu hin nay cng nh trong th k 21 ph thuc ch
yu vo mc pht thi kh nh knh, tc l ph thuc vo s
pht trin kinh t - x hi. V vy, cc kch bn bin i kh hu
c xy dng da trn cc kch bn pht trin kinh t - x hi
ton cu.
Nh trn nu, con ngi pht thi qu mc kh nh knh
vo kh quyn t cc hot ng khc nhau nh cng nghip, nng
nghip, giao thng vn ti, ph rng Do , c s xc nh
cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh l: (1) S pht trin kinh t
quy m ton cu; (2) Dn s th gii v mc tiu dng; (3)
Chun mc cuc sng v li sng; (4) Tiu th nng lng v ti
nguyn nng lng; (5) Chuyn giao cng ngh; (6) Thay i s
dng t
119

Trong Bo co c bit v cc
kch bn pht thi kh nh knh
nm 2000, IPCC a ra 40
kch bn, phn nh kh a dng
kh nng pht thi kh nh knh
trong th k 21. Cc kch bn
pht thi ny c t hp thnh
4 kch bn gc l A1, A2, B1
v B2 (hnh 4.13) vi cc c
im chnh di y (bng
4.4):
- Kch bn gc A1: Kinh t
th gii pht trin nhanh;
Hnh 4.13: S biu th 4 kch
dn s th gii tng, t
bn gc v pht thi kh nh knh.
Ngun: IPCC.
nhiu nht vo nm 2050
v sau gim dn; truyn
b nhanh chng v hiu qu cc cng ngh mi; th gii c s
tng ng v thu nhp v cch sng, c s tng ng gia
cc khu vc, giao lu mnh m v vn ho v x hi ton cu.
Cn c vo mc pht trin cng ngh, kch bn A1 c
chia thnh 3 nhm di y:
+ A1FI: Tip tc s dng qu nhiu nhin liu ha thch (kch
bn pht thi cao);
+ A1B: C s cn bng gia cc ngun nng lng (kch bn
pht thi trung bnh);
+ A1T: Ch trng n vic s dng cc ngun nng lng phi
ho thch (kch bn pht thi thp).
120

- Kch bn gc A2: Th gii khng ng nht, cc quc gia hot

ng c lp, t cung t cp; dn s tip tc tng trong th k
21; kinh t pht trin theo nh hng khu vc; thay i v
cng ngh v tc tng trng kinh t tnh theo u ngi
chm (kch bn pht thi cao, tng ng vi A1FI).
- Kch bn gc B1: Kinh t pht trin nhanh ging nh A1
nhng c s thay i nhanh chng theo hng kinh t dch
v v thng tin; dn s tng t nhiu nht vo nm 2050 ri
sau gim dn; gim cng tiu hao nguyn vt liu,
cc cng ngh sch v s dng hiu qu ti nguyn c
pht trin; ch trng n cc gii php ton cu v n nh
kinh t, x hi v mi trng (kch bn pht thi thp tng
t nh A1T).
- Kch bn gc B2: Dn s tng lin tc nhng vi tc thp
hn A2; ch trng n cc gii php a phng thay v ton
cu v n nh kinh t, x hi v mi trng; mc pht trin
kinh t trung bnh; thay i cng ngh chm hn v manh mn
hn so vi B1 v A1 (kch bn pht thi trung bnh, c xp
cng nhm vi A1B).
Khi qut c im ca bn kch bn trong Bo co cc kch bn
pht thi kh nh knh SRES c trnh by trong hnh 4.14 (trn
c s ca Nakiocenovic v Swarr, 2000). [28]
IPCC khuyn co s dng cc kch bn pht thi c sp xp t
thp n cao l B1, A1T (kch bn thp), B2, A1B (kch bn trung
bnh), A2, A1FI (kch bn cao). Tuy nhin, IPCC cng khuyn co
rng, ty thuc vo nhu cu thc tin v kh nng tnh ton ca
tng nc m la chn cc kch bn pht thi ph hp trong s
xy dng kch bn bin i kh hu...
121

Hnh 4.14: Lng pht thi CO2 tng ng trong

th k 21 ca cc kch bn. (Ngun: IPCC).

Cc nghin cu trong v ngoi nc v kch bn bin i kh hu,

nc bin dng c phn tch v tham kho xy dng kch
bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam, c th nh sau:
1) Ngoi nc:
- Bo co nh gi ln th hai (1995), ln th ba (2001) v ln
th t (2007) ca IPCC;
- Sn phm ca m hnh kh hu ton cu (MRI - AGCM) vi
phn gii 20 km ca Vin Nghin cu Kh tng thuc
Cc Kh tng Nht Bn. Trong hnh 4.16 a ra trch dn
mt sn phm ca m hnh MRI - AGCM i vi nhit
cho khu vc Vit Nam theo kch bn pht thi kh nh knh
mc trung bnh.
122

Bng 4.4: Khi qut c im ca bn kch bn trong Bo co cc kch bn

pht thi kh nh knh - SRES: ( trn c s ca Nakiocenovic v Swarr, 2000) [28].
Kch bn A1

Kch bn A2

Th gii: Theo nh hng th trng

Kinh t:Tc tng trng kinh t theo u
ngi nhanh nht
Dn s: Nhiu nht vo nm 2050, sau
gim dn
Qun l: Tng tc mnh gia cc khu vc;
tng ng v thu nhp
Cng ngh: Chia ra 3 nhm kch bn :
- A1FI: S dng qu nhiu nhin liu ha
thch (kch bn pht thi cao);
- A1T: Khng c cc ngun nng lng ha
thch;
- A1B: Cn bng gia cc ngun nng
lng.

Th gii: Khng ng nht;

Kinh t: Pht trin theo nh hng khu
vc, tc tng trng kinh t theo u
ngi chm nht;
Dn s: Tip tc tng ;
Qun l: Bo tn tnh ng nht ca khu
vc
Cng ngh: Chm nht v pht trin khng
nguyn vn.

Kch bn B1

Kch bn B2

Th gii: ng nht;
Kinh t:Da trn c s dch v v thng tin,
tc tng trng chm hn kch bn A1;
Dn s: Nh kch bn A1;
Qun l:Cc gii php ton cu i vi tnh
bn vng v kinh t, x hi v mi trng;
Cng ngh: Sch v hiu qu.

Th gii: Ch trng cc gii php a

phng;
Kinh t:Tng trng trung bnh;
Dn s: Tip tc tng nhng nhng chm
hn kch bn A2;
Qun l:Ch trng cc gii php a phng
v vng bo v mi trng v cng bng
x hi;
Cng ngh: Nhanh hn kch bn A2; chm
hn v manh mn hn so vi kch bn A1
v B1.

123

Hnh 4.15: Cc kch bn bin i

kh hu quy m ton cu ca
AR4/IPCC.

Hnh 4.16: Sn phm m phng

nhit ca m hnh MRI - AGCM
cho khu vc Vit Nam.

- Bo co v kch bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam ca nhm

nghin cu thuc trng i hc Oxford, Vng quc Anh
(V d i vi lng ma trn hnh 4.17);
- S liu ca v tinh TOPEX/POSEIDON v JASON1 t
nm 1993;
- Cc nghin cu gn y v nc bin dng ca th gii: Trung
tm Thy triu Quc gia Australia (www.cmar.csiro.au); y
ban Mc nc bin thuc Hi ng Nghin cu Mi trng t
nhin, Vng quc Anh; H thng quan trc mc nc bin
ton cu; Trung tm mc nc bin ca trng i hc Hawai.
- Tng hp ca IPCC v cc kch bn nc bin dng trong th
k 21 cc bo co nh gi nm 2001 v nm 2007;
- Cc bo co v nc bin dng ca T chc Tiempo thuc i
hc ng Anh (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo).
2) Trong nc:
- Kch bn bin i kh hu c xy dng nm 1994 trong Bo
124

Hnh 4.17: Din bin chun sai lng ma ca Vit Nam.

(Ngun: Nhm nghin cu thuc i hc Oxford).

co v bin i kh hu chu do Ngn hng pht trin chu

ti tr;
- Kch bn bin i kh hu trong Thng bo u tin ca Vit
Nam cho Cng c khung ca Lin Hp Quc v bin i kh
hu, (Vin KH KTTVMT, 2003);
- Kch bn bin i kh hu c xy dng bng phng php
t hp (phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1) v phng php
chi tit ha (Downscaling) thng k cho Vit Nam v cc khu
vc nh hn (Vin KH KTTVMT, 2006);
- Kch bn bin i kh hu c xy dng cho d tho Thng
bo ln hai ca Vit Nam cho Cng c khung ca Lin Hp
Quc v bin i kh hu (Vin KH KTTVMT, 2007);
- Kch bn bin i kh hu xy dng bng phng php t hp
(phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3) v phng php chi
tit ha thng k (Vin KH KTTVMT, 2008);
- Kch bn bin i kh hu cho khu vc Vit Nam (hnh
4.18) c xy dng bng phng php ng lc (Vin KH
KTTVMT, SEA START, Trung tm Hadley, 2008);
125

Hnh 4.18: Min tnh v sn phm m phng nhit trung bnh

nm (OC), lng ma nm (mm) ca m hnh PRECIS cho khu vc
Vit Nam vo cui th k 21.

- S liu quan trc mc nc bin ti cc trm ca Vit Nam;

- Cc nghin cu ca Vit Nam v nc bin dng nh cng
trnh Thy triu bin ng v s dng ln ca mc nc
ven b Vit Nam; nh gi s hu hoi do mc nc bin
dng;... ca Trung tm Hi vn (Tng cc Bin v Hi o
Vit Nam - B TNMT);

4.2.2. Kch bn bn i kh hu nc bin dng cho

Vit Nam
Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng trong th k 21 cho Vit
Nam c Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng
xy dng trn c s cc tiu ch la chn phng php tnh ton cc
kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng bng phng php t
hp (MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3) v phng php chi tit ha thng
k c la chn xy dng (hnh 4.19). Cc tiu ch la chn
phng php tnh bao gm: (1) Mc tin cy ca kch bn bin
i kh hu ton cu; (2) chi tit ca kch bn bin i kh hu;
(3) Tnh k tha; (4) Tnh thi s ca kch bn; (5) Tnh ph hp
126

Hnh 4.19: Phn mm MAGICC/

SCENGEN 5.3 v phng php chi
tit ha thng k.

Hnh 4.20: Kch bn bin i kh

hu cho Vit Nam v cc khu vc
nh hn.

a phng; (6) Tnh y ca cc kch bn; v (7) Kh nng ch

ng cp nht [2].
1) Kch bn bin i kh hu
Cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh c chn tnh ton xy
dng kch bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam l kch bn pht thi
thp (kch bn B1), kch bn pht thi trung bnh ca nhm cc kch
bn pht thi trung bnh (kch bn B2) v kch bn pht thi trung
bnh ca nhm cc kch bn pht thi cao (kch bn A2).
Cc kch bn bin i kh hu i vi nhit v lng ma c
xy dng cho 7 vng kh hu ca Vit Nam: Ty Bc, ng Bc,
ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v
Nam B. Giai on c la chn lm c s (giai on nn hay
thi k nn) so snh l 1980 - 1999 (cng l giai on c chn
trong Bo co nh gi ln th 4 ca IPCC).
Di y a ra s bin i ca cc yu t kh hu chnh trong
th k 21 trn lnh th Vit Nam.
127

a) V nhit
Nhit ma ng c th tng nhanh hn so vi nhit ma h
tt c cc vng kh hu trn lnh th Vit Nam. Nhit cc vng
kh hu pha Bc c th tng nhanh hn so vi cc vng kh hu
pha Nam.
- Theo kch bn pht thi thp (B1): Vo cui th k 21, nhit
trung bnh nm cc vng kh hu pha Bc c th tng
so vi trung bnh giai on 1980-1999 khong t 1,6 n
1,90C, nhng cc vng kh hu pha Nam tng t hn, ch
khong 1,1 - 1,40C (bng 4.5).

Bng 4.5: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999
theo kch bn pht thi thp (B1) [2]
Vng

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ty Bc

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,6

1,7

1,7

ng Bc

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,7

ng bng Bc B

0,5

0,7

0,9

1,2

1,4

1,5

1,5

1,6

1,6

Bc Trung B

0,6

0,8

1,1

1,4

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

1,9

Nam Trung B

0,4

0,6

0,7

0,9

1,0

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

Ty Nguyn

0,3

0,5

0,6

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,0

1,1

1,1

Nam B

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,1

1,3

1,3

1,4

1,4

128

Bng 4.6: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999
theo kch bn pht thi trung bnh (B2) [2]
Vng

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ty Bc

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,9

2,1

2,4

2,6

ng Bc

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,2

1,6

1,8

2,1

2,3

2,5

ng bng Bc B

0,5

0,7

0,9

1,2

1,5

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

Bc Trung B

0,5

0,8

1,1

1,5

1,8

2,1

2,4

2,6

2,8

Nam Trung B

0,4

0,5

0,7

0,9

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

1,9

Ty Nguyn

0,3

0,5

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,5

1,6

Nam B

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,8

1,9

2,0

- Theo kch bn pht thi trung bnh (B2): Vo cui th k 21,

nhit trung bnh nm c th tng ln 2,60C Ty Bc, 2,50C
ng Bc, 2,40C ng bng Bc B, 2,80C Bc Trung
B, 1,90C Nam Trung B, 1,60C Ty Nguyn v 2,00C
Nam B so vi trung bnh giai on 1980 - 1999 (bng 4.6).
- Theo kch bn pht thi cao (A2): Vo cui th k 21, nhit
trung bnh nm cc vng kh hu pha Bc c th tng so vi
trung bnh giai on 1980 - 1999 khong 3,1 n 3,60C, trong
Ty Bc l 3,30C, ng Bc l 3,20C, ng bng Bc B l
3,10C v Bc Trung B l 3,60C. Mc tng nhit trung bnh
nm ca cc vng kh hu pha Nam l 2,40C Nam Trung B,
2,10C Ty Nguyn v 2,60C Nam B (bng 4.7).
129

Bng 4.7: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999
theo kch bn pht thi cao (A2) [2]
Vng

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ty Bc

0,5

0,8

1,0

1,3

1,7

2,0

2,4

2,8

3,3

ng Bc

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,9

2,3

2,7

3,2

ng bng Bc B

0,5

0,7

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,9

2,3

2,6

3,1

Bc Trung B

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

1,8

2,2

2,6

3,1

3,6

Nam Trung B

0,4

0,5

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,5

1,8

2,1

2,4

Ty Nguyn

0,3

0,5

0,7

0,8

1,0

1,3

1,5

1,8

2,1

Nam B

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,9

2,3

2,6

b) V lng ma
Lng ma ma kh c th gim hu ht cc vng kh hu trn
lnh Vit Nam, c bit l cc vng kh hu pha Nam. Lng
ma ma ma v tng lng ma nm c th tng tt c cc
vng kh hu.
- Theo kch bn pht thi thp (B1): Vo cui th k 21,
lng ma nm c th tng khong 5% Ty Bc, ng
Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B v khong 1-2%
Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn, Nam B so vi trung bnh giai
on 1980-1999 (bng 4.8). Lng ma trong cc thng t
thng III n thng V s gim t 3-6% cc vng kh hu
pha Bc; lng ma vo gia ma kh cc vng kh hu
pha Nam c th gim ti 7-10% so vi giai on 19801999. Lng ma trong cc thng cao im ca ma ma s
130

Bng 4.8: Mc bin i ca lng ma nm (%) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999

theo kch bn pht thi thp (B1) [2]
Vng

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ty Bc

1,4

2,1

3,0

3,6

4,1

4,4

4,6

4,8

4,8

ng Bc

1,4

2,1

3,0

3,6

4,1

4,5

4,7

4,8

4,8

ng bng Bc B

1,6

2,3

3,2

3,9

4,5

4,8

5,1

5,2

5,2

Bc Trung B

1,5

2,2

3,1

3,8

4,3

4,7

4,9

5,0

5,0

Nam Trung B

0,7

1,0

1,3

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,1

2,2

2,2

Ty Nguyn

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,7

0,7

0,9

0,9

1,0

1,0

Nam B

0,3

0,4

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,0

1,0

tng 6-10% c bn vng kh hu pha Bc v Nam Trung

B, cn Ty Nguyn v Nam B ch tng khong 1% so
vi giai on 1980-1999.
- Theo kch bn pht thi trung bnh (B2): Vo cui th k 21,
lng ma nm c th tng khong 7-8% Ty Bc, ng
Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B v t 2-3% Nam
Trung B, Ty Nguyn, Nam B so vi trung bnh giai on
1980-1999 (bng 4.9). Lng ma trong cc thng t thng III
n thng V s gim 4-7% Ty Bc, ng Bc v ng bng
Bc B, khong 10% Bc Trung B, lng ma vo gia
ma kh cc vng kh hu pha Nam c th gim ti 10-15%
so vi giai on 1980-1999. Lng ma cc thng cao im
ca ma ma s tng t 10% n 15% c bn vng kh hu
pha Bc v Nam Trung B, cn Ty Nguyn v Nam B ch
tng trn di 1%.
131

Bng 4.9: Mc thay i lng ma (%) so vi giai on 1980-1999 theo kch

bn pht thi trung bnh (B2) [2]
Vng
Ty Bc
ng Bc
ng bng Bc B
Bc Trung B
Nam Trung B
Ty Nguyn
Nam B

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
1,4 2,1 3,0 3,8 4,6 5,4 6,1 6,7 7,4
1,4 2,1 3,0 3,8 4,7 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,3
1,6 2,3 3,2 4,1 5,0 5,9 6,6 7,3 7,9
1,5 2,2 3,1 4,0 4,9 5,7 6,4 7,1 7,7
0,7 1,0 1,3 1,7 2,1 2,4 2,7 3,0 3,2
0,3 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,9 1,0 1,2 1,3 1,4
0,3 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,4 1,5

- Theo kch bn pht thi cao (A2): Vo cui th k 21, lng

ma nm c th tng so vi trung bnh giai on 1980-1999,
khong 9-10% Ty Bc, ng Bc, 10% ng bng Bc
B, Bc Trung B, 4-5% Nam Trung B v khong 2%
Ty Nguyn, Nam B (bng 4.10). Lng ma trong giai on
t thng III n thng V s gim t 6-9% Ty Bc, ng Bc
v ng bng Bc B, khong 13% Bc Trung B, lng
ma vo gia ma kh Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn, Nam
B c th gim ti 13-22% so vi giai on 1980-1999. Lng
ma cc thng cao im ca ma ma s tng t 12% n 19%
c bn vng kh hu pha Bc v Nam Trung B, cn Ty
Nguyn v Nam B ch vo khong 1-2%.

132

Bng 4.10: Mc thay i lng ma nm (%) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999 theo

kch bn pht thi cao (A2) [2]
Vng
Ty Bc
ng Bc
ng bng Bc B
Bc Trung B
Nam Trung B
Ty Nguyn
Nam B

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
1,6 2,1 2,8 3,7 4,5 5,6 6,8 8,0 9,3
1,7 2,2 2,8 2,8 4,6 5,7 6,8 8,0 9,3
1,6 2,3 3,0 3,8 5,0 6,1 7,4 8,7 10,1
1,8 2,3 3,0 3,7 4,8 5,9 7,1 8,4 9,7
0,7 1,0 1,2 1,7 2,1 2,5 3,0 3,6 4,1
0,3 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,3 1,5 1,8
0,3 0,4 0,6 0,7 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,9

2) Kch bn nc bin dng

Thut ng nc bin dng c hiu l s dng mc nc ca cc
i dng trn ton cu, trong khng bao gm triu, nc dng
do bo. Nc bin dng ti mt v tr no c th cao hn hoc
thp hn so vi trung bnh ton cu v c s khc nhau v nhit
ca i dng v cc yu t khc.
Bo co ln th t ca IPCC c tnh mc nc bin dng khong
26-59 cm vo nm 2100, tuy nhin khng loi tr kh nng mc
tng cn cao hn.
Nhiu nh khoa hc nh gi rng, cc tnh ton ca IPCC v
thay i nhit ton cu l tng i ph hp vi s liu nhit
thc o. Tuy nhin, tnh ton ca IPCC v nc bin dng l thin
thp so vi s liu quan trc ti cc trm v bng v tinh. Nguyn
nhn chnh dn n s thin thp ny c th l do cc m hnh tnh
ton m IPCC s dng phn tch cha nh gi y cc
qu trnh tan bng.
133

Mt s nghin cu gn y cho rng, mc nc bin ton cu c

th tng 50 - 140 cm vo nm 2100.
Cng nh kch bn bin i kh hu, kch bn nc bin dng cho
Vit Nam c tnh ton theo cc kch bn pht thi thp nht
(B1), kch bn pht thi trung bnh (B2) v kch bn pht thi cao
nht (A1FI).
Kt qu tnh ton theo cc kch bn pht thi thp, trung bnh v cao
cho thy, vo gia th k 21, mc nc bin c th dng thm 28
cm n 33cm v n cui th k 21 mc nc bin dng thm t 65
cm n 100cm so vi giai on 1980-1999 (bng 4.11).
Bng 4.11: Mc nc bin dng (cm) so vi giai on 1980 - 1999 [2]
Kch bn
Thp (B1)
Trung bnh (B2)
Cao (A1FI)

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
11
17
23
28
35
42
50
57
65
12
17
23
30
37
46
54
64
75
12
17
24
33
44
57
71
86 100

3) Khuyn ngh kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho

Vit Nam
Cc kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho Vit Nam
c xy dng theo cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh khc nhau
l: thp (B1), trung bnh (B2) v cao (A2, A1FI).
Kch bn pht thi thp (B1) m t mt th gii pht trin tng
i hon ho theo hng t pht thi kh nh knh nht, tc tng
dn s rt thp, c cu kinh t thay i nhanh theo hng dch v
v thng tin, cc tha thun quc t nhm gim thiu pht thi kh
134

nh knh c thc hin y v nghim tc trn phm vi ton

cu. Tuy nhin, vi c cu kinh t khng ng nht gia cc khu
vc trn th gii nh hin nay cng vi nhn thc v bin i kh
hu v quan im cn rt khc nhau gia cc nc pht trin v cc
nc ang pht trin, m phn quc t v bin i kh hu nhm
n nh nng kh nh knh hn ch mc gia tng nhit
mc di 20C gp rt nhiu tr ngi; cho nn kch bn pht thi
thp (B1) c rt t kh nng tr thnh hin thc trong th k 21.
Cc kch bn pht thi cao (A2, A1FI) m t mt th gii khng
ng nht quy m ton cu, c tc tng dn s rt cao, chm
i mi cng ngh (A2) hoc s dng ti a nng lng ha thch
(A1FI). y l cc kch bn xu nht m nhn loi cn phi ngh
n. Vi nhng n lc trong pht trin cng ngh thn thin vi kh
hu, m phn gim pht thi kh nh knh v s chung tay, chung
sc ca ton nhn loi trong lin kt chng li bin i kh hu,
c th hy vng rng nhng kch bn pht thi cao s c rt t kh
nng xy ra.
Hn na, vn cn nhiu im cha chc chn trong vic xc nh
cc kch bn pht trin kinh t - x hi v km theo l lng pht
thi kh nh knh trong tng lai. Vi s tn ti cc im cha chc
chn th cc kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng ng vi cc
kch bn pht thi kh nh knh cn trn hoc cn di u c mc
tin cy thp hn so vi kch bn mc trung bnh.
V nhng l do nu trn, kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng
i vi Vit Nam c khuyn ngh s dng trong thi im hin
nay l kch bn ng vi mc pht thi trung bnh (B2). :
Tnh phc tp ca bin i kh hu v nhng hiu bit cha tht
y v bin i kh hu Vit Nam cng nh trn th gii cng
135

vi yu t tm l, kinh t, x hi, tnh cha chc chn v cc kch

bn pht thi kh nh knh, tnh cha chc chn ca kt qu m hnh
tnh ton xy dng kch bn..., nn kch bn hi ha nht l kch
bn trung bnh c khuyn ngh cho cc B, ngnh v a phng
lm nh hng ban u nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu,
nc bin dng v xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin
i kh hu.
Do vy, s bin i ca nhit khng kh, ma v nc bin dng
nh sau:
1) Vo cui th k 21, nhit trn lnh th Vit Nam c th tng
2,30C so vi trung bnh giai on 1980-1999. Mc tng nhit
dao ng t 1,6 0C n 2,80C cc vng kh hu khc nhau.
Nhit cc vng kh hu pha Bc v Bc Trung B tng
nhanh hn so vi nhit cc vng kh hu pha Nam. Trong
mi vng, nhit ma ng tng nhanh hn nhit ma h.
2) Tng lng ma nm v lng ma ma ma tt c cc
vng kh hu trong lnh th Vit Nam u tng, trong khi
lng ma ma kh c xu hng gim, c bit l cc vng
kh hu pha Nam. Tnh chung cho c nc, lng ma nm
vo cui th k 21 tng khong 5% so vi giai on 19801999. Mc tng lng ma cc vng kh hu pha Bc nhiu
hn so vi cc vng kh hu pha Nam.
3) Vo gia th k 21, mc nc bin c th dng thm khong
30cm v n cui th k 21 mc nc bin c th dng thm
khong 75cm so vi giai on 1980 - 1999.
Cc kt qu trn y cn cha ng tnh cha chc chn cao.
Nguyn nhn c th l: (i) Mc khng nh thp ca cc kch
136

bn pht thi kh nh knh; (ii) Tnh ton m phng kh hu cho

thi k di lun c sai s; (iii) Sai s trong phng php chi tit ha
thng k s liu ton cu v khu vc; (iv) Tnh phn ha su sc ca
cc yu t kh hu theo a phng.
khc phc nhng nhc im trn, IPCC khuyn co s dng
dung sai cho cc kch bn. V d dung sai ti a i vi nhit
cui th k 21 l 0,4 - 0,60C, i vi lng ma nm l 1 - 2% v
khong 5% i vi lng ma thng.

4.3. TC NG CA BIN I KH HU N CC
YU T NHIT KHNG KH, BC THOT
HI TIM NNG V MA TRONG CC H
THNG SNG
4.3.1. Phng php tnh lng ma v bc thot hi tim
nng tng ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu
trong cc thi k tng lai
4.3.1.1. Phng php tnh lng ma thng trung bnh cc thi
k trong tng lai
1) Xc nh gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma thng ti cc
trm kh tng tng ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu
trong tng lai
Cc kch bn bin i kh hu do Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy
vn v Mi trng xy dng ch cho gi tr lng ma thi on
thng hng nm tng ng vi cc kch bn B1, B2 v A2 trong
thi k nn (1980 -1999) v cc thi k tng lai t nm 2000
n nm 2100 ti cc im nt ca cc li c kch thc
137

2,50 2,50 hay 300 300 km. Trn c s s liu lng ma

thng (Xth) ti cc li [24,34,37], lng ma thng hng nm
tng ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu ti cc trm kh tng
c xc nh theo phng php di y.
a) Tnh chun sai tng i lng ma thng ti trm kh
tng trong thi k nn
Chun sai tng i lng ma thng c tnh theo cng thc
di y:

trong :

( Xi - Xtb,i )
,
i = 100 *
Xtb,i

(4.1)

- i l chun sai tng i ca lng ma thng th i trong thi

k nn (%);
- Xi l lng ma ca thng th i trong thi k nn (dmm);
- Xtb,i l lng ma thng trung bnh thi k nn ca thng th i
(mm).
Gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma thng trong thi k nn
(tr,tkn) hay thi k quan trc (tr,tkqt ) ti cc trm kh tng c
tnh theo cng thc (4.1).
b) Tnh chun sai tng i lng ma thng m phng ti
cc li
Lng ma thng m phng ti cc li tng ng vi cc
kch bn bin i kh hu l gi tr trung bnh lng ma thng
138

m phng ca 17 m hnh hon lu tng qut (GCMs) thu c

bng phng php chi tit ha (Downscaling) thng k t tng
m hnh kh hu. Cng theo cng thc (4.1) c th tnh c
chun sai tng i lng ma thng m phng trong thi k nn
(l,tkn ) v cc cc thi k tng lai (2020 - 2039, 2040 - 2059,
2060 - 2079, 2080 - 2099) (l,tktl ) ca tng li.
c) Tnh chun sai tng i lng ma thng m phng trong
cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm kh tng
Xy dng quan h gia chun sai tng i lng ma thng thc
o ti cc trm kh tng trong thi k nn vi chun sai tng i
lng ma thng m phng ti li c la chn trong thi
k nn tr,tkn = f ( l,tktn ) v cc thi k tng lai tr,tkn= f ( l,tktl ).
Trong trng hp chui s liu lng ma thc o ti trm kh
tng trong thi k nn ngn th xy dng chun sai tng i
lng ma thng gia cc trm kh tng vi li trong thi k
quan trc.
Gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma thng m phng trong
cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm kh tng c tnh t gi tr
l,tktl ca li theo phng trnh quan h tr,tkn = f ( l,tktn ).
2) Tnh lng ma thng v nm trong cc thi k tng lai
(2020 - 2100) ti cc trm kh tng
Lng ma thng hng nm trong cc thi k tng lai (2020 2100) ti cc trm kh tng c tnh t gi tr lng ma thng
trung bnh giai on nn v gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma
thng tng ng trong cc thi k tng lai ca li theo cng
thc di y:
139

Xtr,th,i,j = Xtb,th,i,tkn ( 1 + l,i,j,tl ),

( 4.2 )

trong :
- Xtr,th,i,j l lng ma thng m phng ca thng th i trong nm
th j ti trm kh tng (mm);
- Xtb,th,i,tkn l gi tr trung bnh thi k nn ca lng ma thng th
i ti trm kh tng (mm);
- l,i,j,tl l chun sai tng i lng ma thng m phng ca
thng th i ca nm th j ti trm kh tng trong cc thi k
tng lai tng ng.
Lng ma nm trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi cc
kch bn bin i kh hu B1, B2, v A2 c tnh trn c s kt
qu tnh lng ma thng trong cc thi k tng lai (lng ma
nm bng tng lng ma ca 12 thng trong nm).
3) Tnh lng ma thng trong thi k tng lai ti cc trm
o ma khc
Khi tnh dng chy t ma theo m hnh ton thy vn, lng
ma u vo ca m hnh l lng ma ti mt s trm ma i
biu trong lu vc. Trong trng hp trm ma i biu khng
phi l trm kh tng c s liu lng ma tng ng vi cc
kch bn bin i kh hu th lng ma thng tng ng vi cc
kch bn bin i kh hu trong cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm
o ma ny c th c tnh theo mt s phng php di y:
Lng ma nm tng ng vi cc kch bn BKH trong
cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm ma i biu c tnh t
lng ma nm ti trm kh tng ln cn theo phng
140

trnh quan h lng ma nm gia trm ma i biu vi

trm kh tng (c s liu lng ma thng trong cc thi
k tng lai). Phng trnh quan h ny c xy dng
theo s liu lng ma nm thc o trong thi k nn.
Lng ma thng tng ng vi cc kch bn trong cc
thi k tng lai ti cc trm ma i biu c tnh theo
cng thc di y:
Xb,th,tl,i,j = Kb,th,j,i Xb, n,tl,j ,

(4.3)

trong :
- Xb,th,tl,i,j l lng ma thng ca thng th i trong nm th j ti
trm ma i biu trong thi k tng lai (mm);
- Kb,th,j,i l t s % lng ma thng ca thng i trong nm j ti
trm ma i biu trong thi k nn ;
- Xb,n,tl,j l lng ma nm th j trong cc thi k tng lai no
) ti trm ma i biu (mm).
T s Kb,th,i,j c tnh t s liu lng ma thng v nm thc o
trong thi k nn theo cng thc di y:
Xb,th,t i,j
(4.4)
Kb,th,i,j =
x 100%,
Xb,n,t.j
trong :
- Xb,th,t i,j l lng ma thng thc o ca thng th i, nm j trong
thi k nn (mm);
- Xb,n,t.j l lng ma nm thc o ca nm th j trong thi k
nn (mm).
141

Ngoi phng php nu trn, lng ma thng trong cc thi k

tng lai ti cc trm ma i biu cng c tnh theo cng thc
(4.2), trong , gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma thng m
phng ca thng th i trong nm th j trong cc thi k tng lai
c ly bng gi tr chun sai tng i lng ma thng m
phng ca thng th i ca nm j ti trm kh tng ln cn hay ly
bng gi tr trung bnh chun sai tng i lng ma thng trong
cc thi k tng lai ti hai hay ba trm kh tng ln cn.
4.3.1.2. Tnh lng ma ngy
Lng ma ngy trong cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm ma i
biu c tnh theo phng php di y.
a) Tnh t s lng ma ngy so vi lng ma thng ca cc
thng hng nm trong thi k nn ti trm ma i biu trong lu
vc theo cng thc di y:
Kng,tkn(d,m,y) = X ng,t,b(d,m,y) / Xthg,t,b(m,y),

(4.5)

trong :
- Kng,tkn (d,m,y) l t s lng ma ngy ca ngy d, thng m, nm
y trong thi k nn ti trm o ma i biu;
- Xng,t,b (d,m,y) l lng ma ngy thc o ca ngy d, thng m,
nm y trong thi k nn ti trm o ma i biu (mm);
- Xthg,t,b (m,y) l lng ma thng thc o ca thng m, nm y
ti trm o ma i biu trong thi k nn (mm), bng tng ca
lng ma ngy ca cc ngy trong thng.
b) Tnh lng ma ngy trung bnh lu vc m phng c iu
142

chnh ca cc ngy trong cc thng hng nm trong thi k nn v

cc thi k tng lai: Gi thit rng, dng phn phi lng ma
ngy trong thng ti trm o ma i biu c th i din cho
dng phn phi trung bnh ca lng ma ngy trong thng trn
lu vc b phn v dng phn phi ca lng ma ngy trong
cc thng trong thi k nn khng thay i trong tng lai, tc
l dng phn phi ma ngy trong thng m, nm y trong thi k
tng lai tng t dng phn phi lng ma ngy trong thng v
nm tng ng (thng m, nm y) trong thi k nn. Do vy, chui
lng ma ngy c tnh nh sau:
Thi k nn:
X ng,tkn(d,m,y) = Kng,tkn(d,m,y) x Xthg,c,tkn,lv(d,m,y),

(4.6)

Cc thi k tng lai:

Xng,c,tktl,lv(d,m,y) = Kng,tkn(d,m,y) * Xthg,c,tktl,lv

(4.7)

trong :
- Xng,tkn(d,m,y) v Xng,c,tktl,lv(d,m,y) tng ng l lng ma ngy
trung bnh lu vc ca ngy d, thng m, nm y trong thi k nn
v cc thi k tng lai (mm);
- Xthg,c,tkn,lv(d,m,y), Xthg,c,tktl,lv tng ng l lng ma thng c
iu chnh trung bnh lu vc trong thi k nn v cc thi k
tng lai (mm ).
Gi tr nhit khng kh trung bnh thng trong cc thi k
tng lai ti cc trm kh tng cng c xc nh theo phng
php xc nh lng ma thng.
143

4.3.1.3. Tnh bc thot hi tim nng

Bc thot hi tim nng l mt trong nhng yu t u vo ca
m hnh ton thy vn tnh dng chy. Nh trn nu, cc
kch bn bin i kh hu ch cho s liu lng ma thng v
nhit khng kh hng nm ti cc li. Do m hnh d bo
kh hu d tnh cc yu t kh hu khc trong tng lai, nh bc
x mt tri, m tng i ca khng kh v tc gi cha
t chnh xc cao, cn kim chng nn bc thot hi tim
nng thi on ngy trong cc thi k tng lai ti cc trm kh
tng c tnh theo cng thc gin ha di y :
PET = 0,0023 (Tmean + 17,8 ) (Tmax - Tmin )o,5 Ra ,

(4.8)

trong :
- Tmean Tmax, Tmin tng ng l nhit trung bnh, cao nht
v thp nht ngy (OC);
- Ra l bc x mt tri hng ngy c th c tnh theo cng
thc di y:
24(60)
Gsc d [s sin()sin() + c () c () sin (s)], (4.9)
Ra =
r

trong :
- Ra l bc x mt tri (MJm-2day-1);
- Gsc l hng s mt tri, bng 0,0820 MJ m-2 min-1;

- d l nghch o tng i khong cch tri t, c tnh theo

r
cng thc (4.10);

- s l gc nghing gi mt tri ln, c tnh theo cng

thc (4.12);
144

- l v (rad);
- l h s gim ca mt tri (solar decimation) (rad), c tnh
theo cng thc (4.11).
Gi tr dr c tnh theo cng thc di y:
2
dr = 1+ 0,033 cos
,
(4.10)
365
Gi tr c tnh theo cng thc di y:
2
= 0,409 sin
J - 1,39 ,
(4.11)
365
Gi tr s c tnh cng thc (4.12) hay (4.13) di y:

s = arccos

[-tan() tan ()],

(4.12)

Do hm arccos khng c sn trong ngn ng my tnh, nn

c tnh theo cng thc di y:

-tan() tan ()

(4.13)
X0,5
trong : X = 1 - [tan()]2 [tan ()2] v X = 0,00001 nu X : 0

s =

2 - arctan

4.3.2. S bin i trong tng lai ca cc yu t kh

tng chnh trong cc h thng sng
Gi tr ngy ca cc yu t nhit khng kh, lng ma v bc
thot hi ti cc trm kh tng trn phm vi ton quc tng
ng vi cc kich bn B1, B2 v A2 trong cc thi k tng lai
c tnh ton theo cc phng php nu trn. Di y nu ln
s bin i trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi hai kch bn
B2 v A2 ca nhit khng kh, lng ma v bc thot hi tim
145

nng trong cc h thng sng: Hng - Thi Bnh, C, Thu Bn, Ba,
ng Nai v BSCL [19].
4.3.2.1 S bin i ca nhit khng kh trong cc h thng sng
Trong tt c cc h thng sng, cc kch bn bin i kh hu
u cho nhit tng trong th k 21. Vi kch bn B2, nhit
trung bnh nm tng khong 0.91.5OC trong nhng nm gia
th k 21 v ln n 1,82,85OC vo cui th k 21 (hnh 4.21).

Hnh 4.21: Bin i ca nhit khng kh trung bnh nm tng

ng kch bn A2, B2 trong cc h thng sng.

146

Vi kch bn A2, mc tng c s khc bit hn. Nhit trung

bnh nm tng khong 1.01.5OC trong nhng nm gia th k
21 v ln n 2,33,65OC vo cui th k 21. T sau nm 2050,
s khc nhau v mc thay i nhit gia cc kch bn mi
th hin r (hnh 4.21).
Nhit tng cao nht trn lu vc sng C, tip theo l lu vc
sng Hng - sng Thi Bnh. Mc tng ca nhit trong hai lu
vc sng Thu Bn, sng Ba tng t, nm mc trung bnh. Lu
vc sng ng Nai v sng Cu Long c mc tng ca nhit
t hn, ring lu vc sng ng Nai c mc tng nhit t nht.
Nhn chung, trn cc lu vc t sng Hng - sng Thi Bnh n
sng Ba, nhit trung bnh ma ma tng t hn so vi ma
kh, nhng trn lu vc sng ng Nai v BSCL li c xu th
ngc li.
4.3.2.2. Bc thot hi tim nng
H qu ca bin i kh hu th hin qua s thay i nhit
khng kh, dn n lm thay i lng bc thot hi trn lu
vc. Bc thot hi l mt nhn t quan trng tham gia trc tip
vo chu trnh thy vn v do gy ra s thay i ca dng chy
trn lu vc sng. Lng bc thot hi tim nng (ETo) th
hin kh nng bc hi ln nht, ch ph thuc vo iu kin kh
tng. V vy, n phn nh trung thc tc ng ca BKH ln
thnh phn cn cn nc trn lu vc. ETo c xc nh theo
cc kch bn khc nhau nh gi s thay i ca kh nng bc
thot hi trn lu vc sng. Hnh 4.22 th hin s bin i ca
ETo trong cc h thng sng tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v
A2 trong cc thi k tng lai n nm 2100.
147

Hnh 4.22: Bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng trung bnh nm so

vi thi k 1980-1999 trong cc h thng sng tng ng vi hai
kch bn B2 v A2 (%).

148

Hnh 4.23: Bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng theo cc ma (%)

so vi thi k nn 1980-1999 tng ng vi kch bn B2.

149

T hnh 4.22 cho thy, tng t nh s bin i ca nhit v

ma, sau nm 2050, mc bin i ca ETo mi c s khc bit ln
gia cc kch bn.
S bin i lung bc hi tim nng ph thuc r rt vo mc
gia tng ca nhit . Hai lu vc sng Ba v Thu Bn c mc
gia tng ETo ln nht, lu vc sng Hng - Thi Bnh thay i nh
hn. iu ny hon ton ph hp vi nn nhit cao quanh nm v
iu kin khng kh kh nng khu vc min Trung. Trung bnh
trn cc lu vc nu trn, trong ma kh, ETo tng t (8-10)% vo
gia th k 21 ln n khong 25% vo nm 2100. S gia tng ca
bc hi s lm tng lng m tn tht trn lu vc, trong khi lng
ma trong cc thng ma kh nhn chung gim, h qu l dng
chy ma cn suy gim, km theo l nhu cu nc ti tng ln,
tnh trng khan him v thiu nc s gay gt hn ( hnh 4.23).
Trong bng 4.12 a ra mc bin i ca ETo trong hai thi k
2040-2059 v 2080-2099 tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 so
vi thi k nn 1980-1999 trong cc h thng sng.

150

Bng 4.12: Mc bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng vo hai thi k 2040-2059

v 2080-2099 tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 so vi thi k nn 1980-1999
trong cc h thng sng
H thng
Sng
Hng-T.Bnh
C
Thu Bn
Ba
ng Nai
DBSCL
Hng-T.Bnh
C
Thu Bn
Ba
ng Nai
DBSCL
Hng-T.Bnh
C
Thu Bn
Ba
ng Nai
DBSCL
Hng-T.Bnh
C
Thu Bn
Ba
ng Nai
DBSCL

Kch
bn

B2

A2

B2

A2

Nm
9,06
11,01
14,80
12,30
7,96
10,06
8,78
10,71
14,40
11,77
7,56
9,68
15,49
18,81
25,25
20,96
13,49
17,17
17,79
21,66
29,34
24,31
15,63
19,83

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999 (%)

Cc thng
Ma
Ma
ma
kh
XII-II
III-V
VI-VIII
Thi k 2040-2059
8,69
11,05
14,14
7,97
5,30
9,66
12,67
16,39
8,95
7,33
11,99 12,55
22,01
12,95
7,45
10,66 12,35
15,19
10,13
11,05
8,91
6,47
7,14
6,00
9,71
8,97
7,56
9,04
6,98
11,14
5,99
11,67
13,77
7,72
5,11
9,02
12,40
15,92
8,88
7,05
18,82 18,10
21,68
12,41
7,35
10,53 11,76
14,76
9,75
10,43
8,56
6,15
6,73
5,81
9,19
11,07
7,25
8,58
6,82
10,75
Thi k 2080-2099
10,57 20,57
24,33
13,49
9,00
15,59 23,33
27,87
15,39
12,55
32,85 21,44
37,91
22,05
12,64
20,82 21,10
26,42
17,20
18,70
15,27 10,98
12,06
10,20
16,53
19,59 12,92
15,27
12,04
19,06
12,22 23,52
27,67
15,63
10,42
17,99 26,80
31,85
17,89
14,48
38,35 24,84
44,32
25,44
14,80
24,23 24,40
30,74
19,89
21,65
17,67 12,79
14,12
11,80
19,20
22,53 15,08
17,99
13,80
21,88

I X-XI
8,85
11,39
16,81
12,83
8,97
13,07
8,53
10,99
16,15
12,14
8,49
12,60
15,15
19,45
28,38
21,51
15,16
22,29
17,43
22,43
32,81
24,96
17,39
25,66

151

4.3.2.3. S bin i ca lng ma trong tng lai

1) Lng ma nm
Kt qu nh gi cho thy, so vi thi k nn (1980-1999), lng
ma nm trn phm vi c nc u s tng ln trong th k 21. Vi
kch bn B2, mc tng trung bnh trn phm vi c nc khong
2,65- 2,73% i vi c hai kch bn B2 v A2 vo thi k 20402059 v tng ln 4,84-5,83% vo thi k 2080-2099, trong kch
bn A2 cho mc tng nhiu hn (bng 4.13).
Tuy nhin, mc tng ca lng ma nm l khc nhau gia cc
lu vc sng. Trong tng lai, mc tng ca lng ma nm
nhiu nht lu vc sng Hng - Thi Bnh v cc lu vc sng
ven bin Trung B, t nht lu vc sng ng Nai v cc
lu vc sng nhnh ca sng M Cng Ty Nguyn. Vi kch
bn B2, mc tng trung bnh trong thi k 2040-2059 lu vc
sng Hng - Thi Bnh khong 2,92% (sng Thi Bnh 2,86%,
sng Hng 2,94%) v tng ln 5,2% (sng Thi Bnh 5,68%,
sng Hng 5,19%) vo thi k 2080-2099; vi kch bn A2, mc
tng tng ng s l 2,77% lu vc sng Hng v 2,94%
lu vc sng Thi Bnh vo giai on 2040-2059 v 5,97%
lu vc sng Hng v 6,18% lu vc sng Thi Bnh. i vi
lu vc sng ng Nai, mc tng s l 1,3-2,4% v 1,35-2,95%
tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 vi gii hn di l i
vi thi k 2040-2059 v gii hn trn l i vi giai on 20802099. Mc tng ca lng ma nm lu vc sng Thu Bn v
BSCL cng tng i t, khong 2,1-3,7% i vi kch bn B2
v 2,0 - 4,45% i vi kch bn A2 trong lu vc sng Thu Bn
v 2,8-5,0% v 3,53-5,94% i vi BSCL, gii hn di tng
ng vi mc tng trung bnh ca thi k 2040-2059 v gii hn
152

Bng 4.13: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma trong tng lai so vi thi
k nn trong cc h thng sng chnh Vit Nam

H thng sng

Mc bin i ca lng ma tng

ng vi kch bn B2 (%)

Mc bin i ca lng ma tng

ng vi kch bn A2 (%)

Thi k 2040-59

Thi k 2040-59

Thi k 2080-99

Thi k 2080-99

Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma
Ma ma
ma ma
ma ma
ma ma
nm ma ma
kh nm ma kh nm ma kh nm ma kh
K Cng - Bng

2,52 3,95 -1,64 4,90 7,73 -3,26 2,47 3,88 -1,61 5,40 8,47 -3,50

Thi Bnh

2,86 3,47

Hng

2,94 3,56 -1,35 5,19 6,10 -2,35 2,77 3,35 -0,73 6,18 7,46 -1,47

2,69 3,43 -1,27 3,69 4,72 -1,78 2,73 3,47 -1,25 5,97 7,61 -2,80

2,73 3,51 -1,78 4,86 6,23 -3,16 2.64 3,39 -1,73 5,80 7,44 -3,76

Thu Bn

2,10 3,20 -1,27 3,72 5,68 -2,23 2,03 3,10 -1,23 4,45 6,77 -2,66

Ba

3,09 4,50 -4,19 5,42 7,87 -7,24 3,00 4,35 -4,03 6,50 9,43 -8,70

ng Nai

1,33 1,97 -7,59 2,39 3,52 -13,5 1,35 2,08 -7,69 2,95 4,51 -16,7

0 5,68 6,80 0,22 2,94 3,55 0,02 6,32 7,60 0,14

Ty Nguyn 1,45 2,32 -7,48 2,54 -13,1 -13,1 1,43 2,33 -7,41 3,09 5,02 -16,0
M
Cng BSCL
2,81 3,66 -8,29 4,97 6,49 -14,8 2,71 3,53 -7,97 5,94 7,74 -17,6
C nc

2,73 3,52 -2,54 4,84 6,26 -4,54 2,65 3,43 -2,31 5,83 7,52 -5,00

153

Hnh 4.24: S bin i ca lng ma nm trong tng lai tng

ng vi hai kch bn bin i kh hu B2 v A2 ti mt s trm kh
tng trong cc lu vc sng

trn tng ng vi thi k 2080-2099. S bin i ca lng

ma nm trong tng lai tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 ti
mt s trm kh tng c th hin nh trong hnh 4.24.
2) S bin i ca lng ma ma ma
Lng ma ma ma tt c cc ni trong lnh th Vit Nam u
tng so vi giai on 1980-1999, nhng mc tng cng khc nhau
gia cc ni (bng 4.13).
Mc tng trung bnh trong hai thi k 2040-2059 v 2080-2099
trn phm vi c nc tng ng khong 3.52% v 6,26% i vi
kch bn B2 v 3,43% v 7,52% i vi kch bn A2. Mc tng
tng i nhiu trn mt s lu vc sng ven bin Trung B v
tng i t lu vc sng ng Nai. Vi kch bn B2, mc tng
154

Hnh 4.25: S bin i ca lng ma ma ma trong tng lai

tng ng vi hai kch bn bin i kh hu B2 v A2 ti mt s
trm kh tng trong cc lu vc sng

trung bnh ton lu vc ca lng ma ma ma trong lu vc

sng Ba t 4.5% vo thi k 2040-2059 tng ln 7,9% vo thi k
2080-2099; i vi kch bn A2, mc tng tng ng vi hai thi
k nu trn l 4,35% v 9,43%; lu vc sng ng Nai, mc
tng khong 1,97-3,52% i vi kch bn B2 v 2,08 - 4,51% i
vi kch bn A2, gii hn di l mc tng trung bnh ca thi k
2040-2059, gii hn trn l mc trung bnh ca thi k 2080-2099.
cc lu vc sng Hng- Thi Bnh, C v BSCL, vi kch bn
B2, mc tng trung bnh ton lu vc khong 3,5-3,7% vo thi
k 2040-2059, tng ln 6,2-6,8% vo thi k 2080-2099 v i vi
kch bn A2 tng ng vi hai thi k ny l 3,4-3,6% vo thi k
2040-2059 v 7,4-7,7% vo thi k 2080-2099 (hnh 4.25).
155

3) S bin i ca lng ma ma kh
Cc kch bn bin i kh hu u d bo lng ma ma kh
trong tng lai hu ht cc ni u gim (bng 4.13).
Vo thi k 2040-2059, mc gim ca lng ma ma kh
trung bnh trn phm vi c nc khong 2,31-2,54% vo thi
k 2040-2059 v 4.5-5,0% vo thi k 2080-2099 i vi c
hai kch bn B2 v A2.
Nhng mc gim l khc
nhau gia cc ni; gim
nhiu nht Ty Nguyn
v BSCL, sau n
lu vc sng ng Nai,
gim t nht lu vc
sng Hng - Thi Bnh
(tr mt vi ni trong lu
vc sng Thi Bnh c
xu th tng vo thi k
2080-2099), sau n
lu vc sng C. Vi kch
bn B2, mc gim trung
bnh ca lng ma ma
kh BSCL khong
8,29% vo thi k 20402059, 14,86% vo thi k
Hnh 4.26: S phn vng mc bin 2080-2099; vi kch bn
i ca lng ma ma kh tng ng vi
kch bn B2 vo thi k 2040-2059 trn A2, mc gim tng ng
s l 8.0% v 16,7%.
phm vi c nc
156

Hnh 4.27: S bin i ca lng ma ma kh trong tng lai tng ng

vi hai kch bn bin i kh hu B2 v A2 ti mt s trm kh tng trong
cc lu vc sng.

i vi sng Hng - Thi Bnh, mc gim ch khong 1,0-1,25%

vo thi k 2040-2059 v 1,72-2,8% vo thi k 2080-2099 i
vi hai kch bn B2 v A2, mc gim ca kch bn A2 nhiu hn
so vi kch bn B2 (hnh 4.26 v hnh 4.27).
4) S bin i ca lng ma qu
Cc thng XII,I-II: Trong tng lai, xu th bin i ca tng
lng ma cc thng XII-II phn ha thnh hai min vi o
Hi Vn lm ranh gii: tng pha Bc o Hi Vn (tr lu
vc h thng sng K Cng - Bng Giang) v gim pha
Nam o Hi Vn. So vi thi k 1980-1999, mc tng ca
lng ma trong 3 thng XII, I, II thng di 3,0% vo thi
k 2040-2059 v di 5,0% vo thi k 2080-2099, c ni
trn 10,0%; gim mnh thng ngun sng ng Nai vo
thi k 2040-2059 v phn pha Nam ca Nam Trung B
157

(t Qung Ngi tr vo); Ty Nguyn v BSCL 15-20% vo

thi k 2080-2099. Mc tng trong lu vc sng Hng - Thi
Bnh khong t 2,13% vo thi k 2040-2-59 tng ln 3,51%
vo thi k 2080-2099 i vi kch bn B2, v i vi kch
bn A2 mc tng tng ng trong hai thi k ny l 2,15% v
4,74%. Mc gim nhiu nht BSCL khong 5,9-6,1% vo
thi k 2040-2059 v 10,9-12,9% vo thi k 2080-2099 i
vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 (bng 4.14 v bng 4.15).
Cc thng III-V: Tng lng ma cc thng III-V u gim
nhng mc gim l khc nhau gia cc thi k trong th k 21.
Mc gim khong di 6,0% vo thi k 2040-2059 v di
10,0% vo thi k 2080-2099; gim tng i nhiu Bc
Trung B. Vi kch bn B2, mc gim ca lng ma thng
ln hn so vi kch bn A2 vo thi k 2040-2059, nhng li
nh hn vo thi k 2080-2099 (bng 4.14 v bng 4.15).
Cc thng VI-VIII: Tng lng ma ca cc thng VIVIII u c xu th tng trn phm vi c nc. Vi kch bn
A2, vo thi k 2040-2059, mc tng ca tng lng ma
cc thng VI-VIII di 5%, nhng tng ng k vo thi k
2080-2099, khong 5-10% Bc B v Bc Trung B v
di 5% Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B. Vi kch
bn B2, mc tng ca lng ma thng t hn so vi kch
bn A2 (bng 4.14 v bng 4.15) .
Cc thng IX-XI: Tng lng ma cc thng IX-XI u
tng trn phm vi c nc vi xu th tng t hn Bc B v
tng nhiu hn Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B.
Vi kch bn A2, vo thi k 2040-2059, mc tng di 2%
Bc B v 5-10% Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam
158

Bng 4.14: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma cc qu trong tng lai so vi

thi k nn tng ng vi kch bn B2 trong cc h thng sng chnh Vit Nam
H thng sng

Mc bin i ca lng ma cc
thng trong thi k 2040-2059 (%)

Mc bin i ca lng ma cc
thng trong thi k 2080-2099 (%)

XII-II

XII-II

III-V

VI-VIII

I X-XI

III-V

VI-VIII

I X-XI

K Cng -Bng Giang

-0,23

-1,19

5,0

1,37

-0,53

-2,28

9,74

2,70

Thi Bnh

0,81

-1,04

5,34

1,48

1,66

-1,97

10,6

2,81

Hng

2,56

-1,31

5,38

1,28

4,11

-2,25

9,33

2,25

1,97

-2,07

4,95

2,13

2,91

-2,67

6,73

2,85

2,05

-3,45

4,92

3,60

3,62

-6,11

8,70

6,42

Thu Bn

-3,37

-4,59

1,99

4,42

-5,99

-8,12

3,52

7,85

Ba

-6,27

-4,80

2,07

6,82

-11,0

-8,38

3,58

11,9

ng Nai

-8,35

-4,69

1,58

5,10

-14,8

-8,27

2,85

9,03

Ty Nguyn

-8,06

-5,16

1,09

5,94

-14,1

-8,98

1,93

10,4

BSCL

-6,13

-3,53

2,07

6,43

-10,9

-6,28

3,67

11,4

-0,7

-2,54

4,27

3,09

-1,39

-4,44

7,58

5,46

M
Cng
C nc

B; vo thi k 2080-2099, mc tng di 5% Bc B v

phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B (Thanh Ha), 10-20 %
cc vng khc. Mc tng ca lng ma trong kch bn B2
thng t hn so vi kch bn A2 (bng 4.14 v bng 4.15).
Tm li, trn phm vi c nc, lng ma s gim tt c cc
ni trong cc thng I, III, IV v tng trong cc thng VI,VII,IX v
XI; trong khi xu th bin i lng ma cc thng cn li tri
ngc nhau gia hai min Bc v Nam: tng t o Hi Vn tr
ra pha Bc (Bc B v Bc Trung B) v gim t o Hi Vn
159

Bng 4.15: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma cc qu trong tng lai so vi

thi k nn tng ng vi kch bn A2 trong cc h thng sng chnh Vit Nam
H thng sng

Mc bin i ca lng ma cc
thng trong thi k 2040-2059 (%)

Mc bin i ca lng ma cc
thng trong thi k 2080-2099 (%)

XII-II

XII-II

III-V

VI-VIII

I X-XI

III-V

VI-VIII

I X-XI

K Cng -Bng Giang

-0,23

-1,17

4,91

1,35

-0,50

-2,52

10,7

2,95

Thi Bnh

0,90

-1,09

5,57

1,62

3,79

-0,67

14,1

3,96

Hng

2,56

-1,29

5,27

1,26

5,05

-2,79

11,7

2,88

2,02

-2,09

5,01

2,16

4,21

-4,57

11,0

4,74

1,96

-3,33

4,73

3,49

4,35

-7,31

10,4

7,67

Thu Bn

-3,21

-4,44

1,91

4,27

-7,12

-9,71

4,21

9,37

Ba

-6,08

-4,63

1,99

6,61

-13,1

-10,0

4,27

14,3

ng Nai

-8,69

-4,85

1,73

5,26

-19,2

-6,01

9,68

12,2

Ty Nguyn

-8,10

-5,15

1,15

5,91

-17,7

-8,84

5,45

13,1

BSCL

-5,92

-3,39

1,99

6,20

-12,9

-7,49

4,38

13,6

-0,59

-2,78

3,94

2,99

-1,36

-5,25

9,56

6,74

M
Cng
C nc

tr vo trong cc thng II, XII; cn thng V v X th tng t bc

Thanh Ha tr ra, thng VII th tng t Ph Yn tr ra pha Bc.
Mc bin i ca lng ma trong tng lai l khc nhau gia
cc thng, dn n s bin i ca lng ma trong cc qu v
ma cng khc nhau gia cc lu vc sng.
T nhng phn tch trn c th nhn thy, tc ng ca bin i
kh hu n lng ma v ch ma l khc nhau gia cc ni
trn lnh th Vit Nam. Vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu, lng
ma ma ma s tng ln trong khi lng ma ma kh li gim
hu ht cc ni. Do lng ma ma ma chim t l ln (60160

90%) lng ma nm, nn lng ma nm trong tng lai cng

s tng ln, nhng mc tng t hn so vi lng ma ma ma.
Vo na u th k 21, hai kch bn B2 v A2 cho mc bin i
ca lng ma xp x nhau; nhng t gia th k 21, mc bin
i ca lng ma ln hn so vi thi k u ca th k 21 v
kch bn A2 thng cho mc bin i nhiu hn so vi kch bn
B2. Mc tng ca lng ma nm v ma ma tng i nhiu
lu vc sng Hng - Thi Bnh v cc lu vc sng ven bin
Trung B. Lng ma ma kh, trong c lng ma cc thng
XII-II, gim mnh lu vc sng ng Nai v Ty Nguyn.
Trong tng lai, s bin i ca lng ma cc ma v cc qu
trong nm c th s lm trm trng hn mc l lt vo ma ma
l, nht l ven bin Trung B, nhng li khan him ngun nc
trong ma kh, nht l lu vc sng ng Nai v cc sng nhnh
ca sng M Cng Ty Nguyn.

4.4. BIN I KH HU V NC BIN DNG

Di tc ng ca BKH, cc yu t kh hu trong tng lai s
bin i v dn n nc bin dng. Theo s liu quan trc ti cc
trm hi vn dc ven bin Vit Nam, tc dng ln ca mc nc
bin trung bnh Vit Nam hin nay l khong 3 mm/nm (giai
on 1993-2008), tng ng vi tc tng trung bnh trn th
gii. Trong khong 50 nm qua, mc nc bin ti Trm hi vn
Hn Du dng ln khong 20 cm.
Vi b bin di cng vi hai ng bng rng ln, nhng a hnh
thp, nm hai u t nc, nc bin dng s e da n nhng
vng t tr ph, mu m nht ca t Vit Nam.
161

Bng 4.16: Mc nc bin dng (cm) so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]

Kch bn
Thp (B1)
Trung bnh (B2)
Cao (A2)

2020
11
12
12

2030
17
17
17

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
23
28
35
42
50
23
30
37
46
54
24
33
44
57
71

2090
57
64
86

2100
65
75
100

Ngun: Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng ca Vit Nam, B TNMT.

Mc nc bin dng nc ta cng c d tnh theo ba kch bn:

pht thi thp nht (B1), pht thi trung bnh (B2) v pht thi cao
nht (A2).
Kt qu tnh ton theo cc ba kch bn pht thi nu trn cho thy,
so vi thi k 1980-1999, mc nc bin c th dng thm t 28
cm n 33 cm vo gia th k 21 v t 65 cm n 100 cm vo cui
th k 21 (bng 4.16).
Ty thuc vo cc yu t a phng, ch triu v mc
BKH trn ton bin ng, mc gia tng ca mc nc bin s
rt khc nhau trn dc b bin. Mc nc bin c dng cao nht
nm vng Gnh Ho, ca B thuc tnh C Mau, ri n dc
b bin t Qung Ninh n H Tnh. Mc tng ca mc nc
bin thp nht nm vng b bin cc tnh Tha Thin Hu, Qung
Nam, Qung Ngi, cc Nam Trung B v Kin Giang (hnh 4.28).
Vi mc nc bin dng nh trn, ng bng Bc B s c nhiu
vng (vi tng din tch khong na triu ha) b nc bin xm
nhp, nc bin s ln su vo t lin hng chc kilmt. ng
bng sng Cu Long s c khong 1,5 triu ha (37,8% tng din
tch) b ngp khi nc bin dng thm 1 m. Cc ng bng ven bin
162

Hnh 4.28: Qu trnh thy triu ti mt s v tr ca sng ng vi

cc mc nc bin dng khc nhau [19].

163

Trung B cng s b nc bin xm chim dn, c ni st ti chn

dy Trng Sn. Bn cnh , ch thy vn thy lc trn cc
vng ven bin s c nhng thay i ln, ngp lt su hn v ko
di, xi l b sng, bin, bi lng ph sa, nc mn xm nhp ngy
cng su, lm gim din tch t canh tc, hy hoi nghim trng
h sinh thi v a dng sinh hc.

4.5. TC NG CA BIN I KH HU LN TI
NGUYN NC
Sng ngi l sn phm ca kh hu. Mi s thay i ca kh hu
u tc ng mnh m ln ngun nc sng. Di y gii thiu
kt qu bc u nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti
nguyn nc trong cc h thng sng nu trn (Hng - Thi Bnh,
C, Thu Bn, Ba, ng Nai v BSCL) trong cc thi k tng
lai theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu. Cc c trng dng chy
chnh c nh gi bao gm: dng chy nm, dng chy ma l,
dng chy ma cn, lu lng nh l ln nht v tnh hnh ngp
lt, xm nhp mn trong tng lai Ngoi ra, cn xem xt n
tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln thy in, nhu cu nc ca cc
ngnh, c bit l cp nc cho ti [19].
Di tc ng ca bin i kh hu, dng chy sng vo cc giai
on tng lai c nh gi bng m hnh ma - dng chy theo
cc kch bn bin i kh hu B2 v A2 do Vin Khoa hc Kh
tng Thy vn v Mi trng xy dng v c trnh by
trn. y, chui dng chy ngy ca cc giai on trong tng
lai ti cc trm thy vn i biu trn cc h thng sng l kt qu
m phng t ma v bc thot hi tim nng tng ng vi cc
kch bn bin i kh hu theo m hnh Nam - l mt m hnh ma
164

- dng chy, thuc loi m hnh thy vn tt nh - nhn thc, do

Khoa Thy vn K thut thy ng lc v thy lc thuc trng
i hc K thut an Mch xy dng vo nm 1982. M hnh ny
c s dng rng ri an Mch v nhiu nc trn th gii.
T cui thp nin 80 ca th k 20, m hnh Nam bt u c
nghin cu p dng Vit Nam tnh dng chy t ma trong
tnh ton thy vn phc v cho quy hoch, thit k cc cng trnh
thy li, thy in v d bo thy vn.
Cc ni dung nh gi tc ng ca BKH ln ti nguyn nc
ca lu vc sng c chia thnh cc khi ln trong mi lin kt
cht ch gia cc thnh phn v c m t trong hnh 4.29.
T kt qu tnh cc c trng dng chy tng ng vi cc kch
bn bin i kh hu trong cc thi k tng lai (2000 - 2019,
2020 - 2039, 2040 - 2059, 2060 - 2079, 2080 - 2099) ti mt s
trm thy vn i biu trn cc sng c th rt ra mt s nhn
xt di y v tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo hai kch bn
A2 v B2 ln dng chy sng Vit Nam [19].

4.5.1. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n dng chy nm

Tc ng ca BKH n dng chy nm l rt khc nhau gia cc
vng/h thng sng. Xu th bin i ca dng chy nm ca cc
sng l tri ngc nhau gia hai phn pha Bc (Bc B v phn
pha Bc ca Bc Trung B - Thanh Ha v Ngh An) v phn
pha Nam (phn pha Nam ca Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B,
Ty Nguyn v Nam B). Dng chy nm trn cc sng Bc B,
phn pha bc ca Bc Trung B c xu th tng ph bin di 2%
vo thi k 2040-2059 v ln n 2-5% vo thi k 2080-2099;
khng c s chnh lch nhiu gia hai kch bn A2 v B2.
165

Hnh 4.29: S khi nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu ln ti

nguyn nc [19].

166

Tri li, dng chy nm ca cc sng phn pha Nam t H Tnh

tr vo li c xu th gim. Vi kch bn B2, mc gim ca dng
chy nm thng di 4,0 % vo thi k 2040-2059 v di 7,0
% vo thi k 2080-2099, gim tng i t (di 2,0%) cc lu
vc sng La, Thu Bn v thng ngun sng Ba, gim tng i
nhiu lu vc sng ng Nai, nht l h lu sng B, c th ti
7,0% vo thi k 2040-2059 v 10,0% vo thi k 2080-2099
h lu sng B ti trm Phc Ha (bng 4.17 - 4.18, hnh 4.30).
Tc ng ca bin i kh hu cng s lm cho dng chy nm
ca sng M Cng tng ln. Theo kt qu tnh ton ca y hi
sng M Cng quc t [37], so vi thi k 1985 - 2000, mc tng
trung bnh trong thi k 2010-2050 ca dng chy nm ca sng
M Cng ti Kratie v Tn Chu tng ng khong 7,0% v 4,0%
i vi kch bn B2; 12,5% v 7,6% i vi kch bn A2. Nu xt
n c s khai thc s dng nc trn lu vc, th dng chy nm
ca sng M Cng ti Kratie v Tn Chu trung bnh c thi k
2010-2050 vn tng ln nhng mc t hn, ch khong 3,7% v
2,2% kch bn B2; 9% v 6% ng vi kch bn A2 so vi thi
k 1985 - 2000 (bng 4.19).
Nh bit, phng trnh cn bng nc thi on nm trung bnh
thi k nhiu nm ca lu vc sng khp kn (khng c trao i
nc vi lu vc sng ln cn) nh sau:.
hoc

Xo=Yo + Eo,
Yo = Xo - Eo,

(4.14)
(4.15)

trong :Xo, Yo, Eo tng ng l gi tr trung bnh lu vc ca

lng ma nm, dng chy nm v lng bc hi nm trung bnh
thi k nhiu nm (mm).
167

168

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

19802020204020801999
2039
2059
2099
711
713
719
732
1.132
1.148
1.160
1.184
1.529
1.545
1.562
1.596
163
165
166
169
375
375
378
386
808
812
818
831
1.086
1.091
1.098
1.114
388
393
394
400
139
140
140
142
54,4
54,7
55,3
56,4
42,6
42,7
43,0
43,9
423
427
431
439
132
134
135
137
282
279
277
276
117
116,7
116,4
116,5
35,4
34,8
34,7
34,7
291
286
283
284
505
490
484
468
93,1
91,1
90,0
87,8
89,6
87,4
86,8
84,7
281
268
265
260

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999

Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
m3/s
%
m3/s
%
m3/s
%
1,79
0,25
7,94
1,12
20,8
2,93
15,7
1,39
28,3
2,50
52,7
4,66
15,8
1,03
32,8
2,14
66,7
4,36
2,42
1,49
3,51
2,16
6,4
3,95
-0,27
-0,07
3,14
0,84
10,9
2,89
4,65
0,58
9,71
1,20
22,9
2,83
5,1
0,47
11,3
1,04
28,0
2,57
5,09
1,31
6,80
1,76
12,0
3,10
0,44
0,31
1,04
0,75
2,79
2,00
0,37
0,68
0,91
1,67
2,07
3,81
0,05
0,11
0,42
0,98
1,25
2,93
4,24
1,00
7,50
1,77
16,2
3,83
1,54
1,17
2,51
1,90
4,77
3,61
-2,50
-0,89
-4,30
-1,53
-5,80
-2,06
-0,30
-0,26
-0,60
-0,51
-0,50
-0,43
-0,59
-1,66
-0,70
-1,98
-0,69
-1,95
-5,00
-1,72
-8,0
-2,75
-7,00
-2,41
-14,4
-2,85
-20,8
-4,12
-36,5
-7,23
-2,00
-2,15
-3,10
-3,33
-5,30
-5,69
-2,20
-2,46
-2,80
-3,13
-4,90
-5,47
-12,3
-4,38
-15,8
-5,63
-20,6
-7,34

Bng 4.17: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thy vn so vi thi k 1980-1999, kch bn B2 [19]

169

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

1980- 2020 - 204020801999
2039
2059
2099
711
713
718
739
1.132
1.147
1.159
1.198
1.529
1..545
1.560
1.613
163
165
166
171
375
374
376
386
808
811
815
834
1.086
1.090
1095
1.119
388
393
394
403
139
140
140
143
54,4
54,7
55,2
57,0
42,6
42,7
43,0
44,4
423
427
430
445
132
134
134
138
282
279
277
276
117
117
116
117
35,8
35,2
35,1
35,3
291
286
284
286
505
490
484
475
93,1
91
90
88,4
89,6
87,4
86,7
86
281
268
265
261

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999

Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
m3/s
%
m3/s
%
m3/s
%
1,62
0,23
7,45
1,05
28,2
3,97
15,7
1,38
27,3
2,41
65,9
5,82
15,9
1,04
31,2
2,04
83,9
5,48
2,43
1,49
3,39
2,08
8,08
4,97
-1,55
-0,41
0,67
0,18
10,4
2,78
3,25
0,40
6,99
0,87
26,0
3,22
3,5
0,33
8,4
0,77
33,1
3,04
5,02
1,29
6,63
1,71
15,4
3,98
0,43
0,31
0,99
0,71
3,90
2,80
0,37
0,68
0,86
1,58
2,67
4,92
0,03
0,07
0,39
0,91
1,73
4,05
4,00
0,95
7,00
1,65
22,0
5,20
1,54
1,17
2,43
1,84
6,00
4,54
-2,50
-0,89
-4,10
-1,46
-5,90
-2,10
-0,30
-0,26
-0,60
-0,51
-0,20
-0,17
-0,60
-1,68
-0,70
-1,96
-0,50
-1,40
-5,00
-1,72
-7,0
-2,41
-5,0
-1,72
-14,7
-2,91
-20,9
-4,14
-30,0
-5,95
-2,10
-2,26
-3,10
-3,33
-4,70
-5,05
-2,20
-2,46
-2,90
-3,24
-4,10
-4,58
-12,4
-4,42
-15,7
-5,60
-19,3
-6,88

Bng 4.18: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thy vn so vi thi k 1980-1999, kch bn A2 [19]

Bng 4.19: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thy vn

trn sng M Cng so vi thi k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu
v pht trin khai thc s dng nc [37]

Kch
bn
BKH

Kch bn pht trin Kch bn pht Thay i dng Thay i dng

nn, - Q trung bnh trin- Q trung chy trung bnh chy trung bnh
bnh nm (m3/s) nm (m3/s)
nm (%)
nm (m3/s)
Trm
19852000

20102050

20102050

Kch bn
pht
trin
nn

12.585

14.155

13.717

1.570

1.132

12,5

9,0

Kompong Cham 12.292

13.726

13.365

1.434

1.073

11,7

8,7

Phnom Penh

11.967

13.102

12.887

1.135

920

9,5

7,7

Tan Chau

9.743

10.483

10.328

740

585

7,6

6,0

Kratie

12.585

13.455

13.045

870

460

6,9

3,7

Kompong Cham 12.292

13.089

12.753

797

461

6,5

3,8

Phnom Penh

11.967

12.573

12.370

606

403

5,1

3,4

Tan Chau

9.743

10.146

9.957

403

214

4,1

2,2

Kratie
A2

B2

Kch Kch bn
bn pht
pht trin
trin nn

Kch
bn
pht
trin

Do bc hi ph thuc vo nhiu yu t m cc yu t ny kh xc
nh c s bin i ca chng trong tng lai do tc ng ca
bin i kh hu, cho nn y tm thay Eo bng bc thot hi
tim nng (ETo)
T phng trnh cn bng nc t nhin ca lu vc sng khp
kn cho thy, s bin i ca dng chy nm ca cc sng trong
tng lai ty thuc vo s bin i ca lng ma v bc hi
170

(c phn nh qua bc thot hi tim nng ETo). Do , tuy

lng ma nm tng nhng do nhit tng nn lng nc tn
tht do bc thot hi trn lu vc tng ln kh nhiu, dn n
lng dng chy khng tng nhanh, thm ch dng chy nm trn
hu ht sng sui khu vc min Trung c xu th gim. T s
bin i ca cc thnh phn ca cn bng nc t nhin, c th
gii thch c s bin i khc nhau ca dng chy theo tng
lu vc (vng) di tc ng ca bin i kh hu (hnh 4.31).

171

Hnh 4.30: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thy

vn trn mt s sng so vi thi k 1980-1999, kch bn B2, A2 [19].

172

Hnh 4.31: Bin i ca cc thnh phn cn bng nc t nhin ca

mt s lu vc, ng vi kch bn B2 [19].

173

4.5.2. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n dng chy ma l

Di tc ng ca bin i kh hu, dng chy ma l ca phn
ln cc sng, u c xu th tng, ch ring sng ng Nai gim
so vi thi k 1980-1999, v khng c s chnh lch ng k
gia hai kch bn B2 v A2 (bng 4.20, 4.21 v hnh 4.32). Vi
kch bn B2, vo thi k 2040-2059, dng chy trung bnh ma
l tng khong 2,0-4,0% hai h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh
v C, nhng ch khong 0,9-1,5% hai h thng sng Thu Bn
v Ba; vo thi k 2080-2099 c th tng 5,0-10,0% sng Hng
v sng C v 2,0-4,0% hai h thng sng Thu Bn, Ba; ring
sng Thao tng kh nhiu, vo khong 8,7% ti Yn Bi. Trong
khi , dng chy ma l ca cc sng trong h thng sng ng
Nai li gim khong 3,5-6,7%, gim nhiu nht h lu sng B
ti trm Phc Ha.
Dng chy ma l trn ton lu vc sng M Cng cng s tng
ln. So vi thi k 1985-2000, dng chy ma l trung bnh thi k
2010-2050 ca sng M Cng ti Kratie v Tn Chu tng khong
5,0% v 2,0% i vi kch bn B2 v 11,0% v 5,8% i vi kch
bn A2[37].
Trong tng lai, do tc ng iu tit ca h thng h cha trn
sng M Cng v s c xy dng (kch bn pht trin khai
thc s dng nc), dng chy trung bnh ma l ca sng M
Cng ti Kratie v Tn Chu trung bnh thi k 2010-2050 vn c
xu th tng ln nhng mc t hn, ch khong 3,2% v 1,1%
kch bn A2; nhng li gim kch bn B2 (bng 4.22).

174

175

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

1980- 2020 - 204020801999
2039
2059
2099
1.188
1.209
1.231
1.271
2.566
2.611
2.649
2.718
3.389
3.442
3.493
3.587
346
352
356
365
769
780
792
816
1.384
1.404
1.422
1.460
2.098
2.125
2.152
2.208
640
651
658
674
231
234
237
243
114
116
118
121
74,9
76,0
77,4
80,1
741
758
771
798
216
220
223
229
802
807
809
815
319
320
321
324
105
105
106
108
627
630
635
654
889
864
853
826
157
154
153
149
158
154
153
149
489
468
462
453

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999

Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
%
%
%
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
20,5
1,72
42,1
3,55
82,7
6,96
44,3
1,73
82,5
3,21
152
5,91
53,0
1,56
103,7
3,06
199
5,86
5,57
1,61
9,65
2,79
18,5
5,35
10,15
1,32
22,3
2,90
46,2
6,01
19,1
1,38
37,4
2,70
75,4
5,45
27,1
1,29
53,9
2,57
109,9
5,24
10,1
1,57
17,5
2,73
33,5
5,24
2,80
1,21
5,64
2,44
11,5
4,97
1,60
1,40
3,40
2,98
6,97
6,11
1,09
1,45
2,49
3,32
5,18
6,91
16,7
2,26
30,3
4,09
57,2
7,71
4,24
1,96
7,30
3,38
13,4
6,20
5,20
0,65
7,30
0,91
13,2
1,65
1,60
0,50
2,20
0,69
4,70
1,473
0,27
0,26
1,05
1,00
3,08
2,94
3,0
0,48
8,0
1,28
27,0
4,31
-24,6
-2,77
-35,2
-3,96
-63,0
-7,09
-2,90
-1,85
-4,20
-2,68
-7,40
-4,72
-3,90
-2,47
-5,20
-3,30
-9,00
-5,70
-21,8
-4,45
-27,8
-5,68
-36,4
-7,44

Bng 4.20: Bin i dng chy trung bnh ma l ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng ng vi kch bn B2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]

176

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

19802020
204020801999
-2039
2059
2099
1.188
1.209
1.229
1.292
2.566
2.611
2.646
2.754
3.389
3.442
3.488
3.633
346
352
355
369
769
777
786
817
1.384
1.401
1.416
1.470
2.098
2.121
2.144
2.225
640
650
657
683
231
234
237
246
114
116
117
123
74,9
76,0
77,3
81,4
741
758
770
813
216
220
223
232
802
807
809
819
319
321
321
326
105
105
106
109
627
631
635
654
889
863
853
839
157
154
153
151
158
154
153
151
489
467
462
457

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999

Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
%
%
%
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
20,3
1,70
40,44
3,40
103
8,71
44,2
1,72
79,3
3,09
187
7,29
53,1
1,57
99,3
2,93
245
7,22
5,60
1,62
9,25
2,67
23,0
6,64
7,25
0,94
16,34
2,12
47,4
6,16
16,43
1,19
31,45
2,27
85,6
6,18
23,8
1,13
46,3
2,21
128
6,08
9,98
1,56
16,84
2,63
42,2
6,58
2,80
1,21
5,40
2,33
14,6
6,29
1,60
1,40
3,25
2,85
8,70
7,62
1,07
1,42
2,39
3,19
6,52
8,70
16,6
2,24
29,0
3,92
72,2
9,74
4,27
1,98
7,07
3,27
16,4
7,57
5,20
0,65
7,20
0,90
16,8
2,09
1,60
0,50
2,10
0,66
6,40
2,01
0,30
0,29
1,00
0,95
4,18
3,98
4,0
0,64
8,0
1,28
27,0
4,31
-25,3
-2,85
-35,6
-4,01
-49,9
-5,62
-3,00
-1,91
-4,20
-2,68
-5,80
-3,70
-4,00
-2,53
-5,20
-3,30
-7,10
-4,50
-22,0
-4,50
-27,3
-5,58
-32,6
-6,66

Bng 4.21: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh ma l ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng so vi thi k 1980-1999 ng vi kch bn A2 [19]

Bng 4.22: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh ma l ti mt s trm thy vn

trn sng M Cng so vi thi k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu
v pht trin khai thc s dng nc [37]

Kratie
A2 Phnom Penh
Tan Chau
Kratie
B2 Phnom Penh
Tan Chau

2010-2050

2010-2050

Trm

1985-2000

Kch
bn
BKH

Kch bn pht
Kch bn pht trin
Thay i dng Thay i dng
trin- Q trung
nn- Q trung bnh
chy trung bnh chy trung bnh
bnh ma l
ma l (m3/s)
ma l (m3/s)
ma l (%)
(m3/s)
Kch bn Kch Kch bn Kch
pht bn pht bn
trin pht trin pht
nn trin nn trin
21.549 23.890
22.229
2.341 680
10,9
3,2
20.217 21.711
20.495
1.494 278
7,4
1,4
14.435 15.266
14.589
831
154
5,8
1,1
21.549 22.609
20.940
1.060 -609
4,9
-2,8
20.217 20.787
19.542
570
-675
2,8
-3,3
14.435 14.706
14.000
271
-435
1,9
-3,0

177

Hnh 4.32: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma l (%) ti mt s trm

thy vn trn cc sng so vi thi k 1980-1999, kch bn A2, B2 [19].

178

4.5.3.Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lu lng nh l

Nhn chung, bin i kh hu s lm gia tng mc nguy him ca
l lt th hin lu lng nh l v tng lng l tng ln. Trong
hai bng 4.23, 4.24 a ra mc bin i ca lu lng nh l ln
nht nm tng ng vi tn sut 1% v 5% v 2 kch bn BKH
A2 v B2 ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng.
Nhn chung, gi tr lu lng nh l ln nht nm (Qmax) tng ng
vi cc tn sut trn phn ln cc sng u c xu th tng, mc tng
nhiu hn ng vi cc tn sut nh, ch ring mt s nhnh sng
ca sng ng Nai, Qmax li c xu th gim.
Vi kch bn B2, vo thi k 2040-2059, gi tr Qmax tng ng
vi tn sut 1% (Qmax1%) trn phn ln cc sng u tng vo khong
1,0-5,0% so vi thi k 1980-1999, tng mnh mt s nhnh sng
thuc h thng sng Hng (khong 10,0% sng Thao ti Yn Bi
v sng L ti V Quang), nhng li c xu th gim sng La Ng
(-0,29% ti T Pao) v thng lu sng B (-1,0% ti Phc Long).
Vo thi k 2080-2099, mc gia tng ca Qmax1% trn phn ln cc
sng khong 0-15,0%, tng mnh h lu sng Ba (18,5% ti Cng
Sn), sng Thao (21,7% ti Yn Bi), sng L (19,0% ti Ghnh
G). sng La Ng v thng lu sng B, gi tr Qmax1% ca hu
ht cc sng vo thi k 2080-2099 u gim khong 0,5-2,5% .
Vi kch bn A2, gi tr Qmax tng ng vi cc tn sut ca hu ht
cc sng u c xu th tng so vi thi k 1980-1999, nhng cng
li gim sng La Ng v thng lu sng B; mc bin i ca
Qmax ln hn so vi kch bn B2. Ngoi ra, mc bin i ca Qmax
tng ng tn sut 1% ln hn so vi tn sut 5%. T c th cho
rng, mc bin i ca cc trn l nh t hn so vi cc trn l ln
v c bit ln (hnh 4.33).
179

180

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

Trm

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
Sng lu vc
(km2)

Qmax thc o thi k

(m3/s)
1989-1999
1%
5%
10.418 8.611
14.130 12.230
21.837 17.515
2.979 2.502
6.601 5.161
9.359 8.146
12.549 9.270
7.014 5.755
3.357 2.447
3.371 2.611
4.094 3.256
11.955 8.989
6.766 4.911
9.347 7.460
5.628 4.206
3.280 2.500
23.400 16.460
3622,5 3295,9
1.112
932
1.416 1.176
2.070 1.682
2020-2039
1%
5%
10.902 8.915
14.638 12.640
22.524 18.138
3.099 2.578
6.772 5.285
9.743 8.439
13.306 9.823
7.185 5.908
3.531 2.559
3.524 2.723
4.194 3.335
12.163 9.166
6.902 5.008
9.546 7.585
5.676 4.247
3.410 2.560
24.140 16.830
3.619 3.289
1.110
931
1.406 1.172
2.069 1.679

2040-2059
1%
5%
11.448 9.300
15.068 12.991
23.110 18.639
3.223 2.658
6.976 5.436
10.198 8.721
13.885 10.142
7.468 6.131
3.687 2.644
3.641 2.817
4.288 3.399
12.455 9.385
7.041 5.107
9.656 7.672
5.758 4.309
3.450 2.620
25.130 17.400
3.616 3.276
1.109
930
1.402 1.171
2.065 1.678

2080-2099
1%
5%
12.682 10.133
15.925 13.714
24.129 19.550
3.466 2.818
7.347 5.667
11.136 9.357
14.551 10.564
7.899 6.471
3.969 2.812
3.876 3.009
4.478 3.533
13.001 9.795
7.309 5.299
9.912 7.875
5.922 4.431
3.580 2.710
27.730 19.050
3.581 3.235
1.099
926
1.377 1.165
2.045 1.663

Lu lng nh l thi k (m3/s)

2020-2039
1%
5%
4,65 3,53
3,6 3,35
3,15 3,56
4,03 3,04
2,59
2,4
4,10 3,59
6,03 5,97
2,44 2,66
5,18 4,58
4,54 4,28
2,46 2,42
1,74 1,97
2,00 1,97
2,13 1,68
0,85 0,97
3,96
2,4
3,16 2,25
-0,09 -0,21
-0,18 -0,15
-0,68 -0,34
-0,06 -0,21

2040-2059
1% 5%
9,89 8,0
6,64 6,22
5,83 6,42
8,19 6,24
5,68 5,33
8,96 7,05
10,65 9,41
6,47 6,53
9,83 8,05
8,01 7,89
4,74 4,38
4,18 4,41
4,06 4,0
3,31 2,84
2,31 2,45
5,18 4,8
7,39 5,71
-0,18 -0,62
-0,29 -0,23
-1,0 -0,42
-0,26 -0,23

2080-2099
1%
5%
21,7 17,7
12,7 12,1
10,5 11,6
16,4 12,6
11,3
9,8
19,0 14,9
16,0
14
12,6 12,4
18,2 14,9
15,0 15,2
9,37 8,52
8,75 8,97
8,02
7,9
6,04 5,56
5,22 5,35
9,15
8,4
18,5 15,7
-1,15 -1,86
-1,13 -0,71
-2,74 -0,96
-1,21 -1,12

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999 (%)

Bng 4.23: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi tn sut 1% v 5% ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch bn B2 [19]

181

Sng

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

Din Qmax thc o thi

tch
k (m3/s)
lu vc
1989-1999
(km2)
1%
5%
48.000 10.418 8.611
33.800 14.130 12.230
45.900 21.837 17.515
8.298
2.979 2.502
11.900
6.601 5.161
29.600
9.359 8.146
36.790 12.549 9.270
16.500
7.014 5.755
4.960
3.357 2.447
2.220
3.371 2.611
2.090
4.094 3.256
20.800 11.955 8.989
4.024
6.766 4.911
3.155
9.347 7.460
1.850
5.628 4.206
1.440
3.280 25.00
12.800 23.400 16.460
14.800
3.620 3.300
2.010
1.112
932
2.370
1.416 1.176
5.240
2070
1682
2020-2039
1%
5%
10.932 8.937
14.653 12.645
22.502 18.134
3.103 2.579
6.773 5.286
9.756 8.444
13.211 9.762
7.193 5.912
3.536 2.559
3.525 2.724
4.200 3.337
12.163 9.166
6.905 5.010
9.545 7.584
5.676 4.247
3.510 2.590
24.500 17.070
3.619 3.293
1.110
931
1.407 1.173
2069 1681

2040-2059
1%
5%
11.423 9.285
15.025 12.958
23.056 18.597
3.216 2.654
6.964 5.427
10.161 8.699
13.864 10.144
7.379 6.066
3.674 2.639
3.630 2.809
4.277 3.392
12.429 9.366
7.030 5.100
9.649 7.666
5.753 4.304
3.590 2.650
25.120 17.480
3.617 3.281
1.110
931
1.404 1.173
2067 1680

2080-2099
1%
5%
13.298 10.573
16.274 14.010
24.758 20.012
3.544 2.872
7.517 5.807
11.482 9.591
15.989 11.508
8.153 6.676
4.081 2.897
3.971 3.085
4.549 3.586
13.281 10.005
7.426 5.383
10.079 8.008
6.011 4.498
3.810 2.850
28.470 19.700
3.600 3.250
1.106
928
1.385 1.170
2051 1668

Lu lng nh l thi k (m3/s)

2020-2039
2040-2059
1%
5%
1% 5%
4,93 3,79 9,65 7,83
3,70 3,39 6,33 5,95
3,05 3,53 5,58 6,18
4,19 3,08 7,98 6,05
2,61 2,42 5,50 5,15
4,23 3,66 8,57 6,78
5,28 5,31 10,48 9,43
2,55 2,73 5,20 5,40
5,33 4,58 9,44 7,85
4,57 4,31 7,69 7,58
2,59 2,47 4,47 4,18
1,74 1,97 3,96 4,19
2,06 2,03 3,90 3,84
2,12 1,66 3,23 2,76
0,85 0,97 2,22 2,33
7,01 3,60 9,45 6,00
4,70 3,71 7,35 6,20
-0,03 -0,21 -0,08 -0,56
-0,14 -0,12 -0,20 -0,18
-0,62 -0,26 -0,85 -0,29
-0,04 -0,09 -0,15 -0,12

2080-2099
1%
5%
27,6 22,8
15,2 14,6
13,4 14,3
19,0 14,8
13,9 12,5
22,7 17,7
27,4 24,1
16,2 16,0
21,6 18,4
17,8 18,1
11,1 10,1
11,1 11,3
9,8
9,6
7,83 7,35
6,81 6,94
16,2 14,0
21,7 19,7
-0,56 -1,51
-0,53 -0,51
-2,20 -0,56
-0,93 -0,85

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999 (%)

Bng 4.24: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi tn sut 1% v 5% ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch bn A2 [19]

Hnh 4.33: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi tn sut

1% ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng so vi thi k 1980-1999
theo hai kch bn B2 v A2 [19].

182

Hnh 4.33: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi tn sut

1% ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng so vi thi k 1980-1999
theo hai kch bn B2 v A2 [19]. (tip theo)

Hnh 4.34: Bin i ca lu lng ngy ln nht (%) ca sng M

Cng ti Kratie so vi trn l nm 2000 [37].

183

Trn sng M Cng, lu lng trung bnh ngy ln nht (Qmax,ng)

ti Kratie trong tng thi k 10 nm t 2010 n 2050 u tng
theo ca cc kch bn bin i kh hu. Tuy nhin, tng r rt v
tch bch gia 2 kch bn A2, B2 ch sau nm 2030. n gia th
k 21, Qmax,ng c th tng khong 60-70% so vi nh l nm 2000
(hnh 4.34).

4.5.4. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n dng chy ma cn

Di tc ng ca bin i kh hu, khc vi dng chy nm v
dng chy ma l, dng chy ma cn trong tng lai ca tt c
cc sng trong lnh th Vit Nam s u gim, nhng mc gim l
khc nhau kh ln gia cc sng, thm ch gia thng, trung v
h lu trn cng trin sng v kch bn B2 c mc gim nhiu hn
so vi kch bn A2.
Vo thi k 2040-2059, mc gim ca dng chy trung bnh
ma cn dao ng trong phm vi t di 1,5% cc sng: ,
Gm, Hiu, n trn 10% ti sng Ba; cn cc sng khc thng
gim 3,0-10,0% (bng 4.25, 4.26 v hnh 4.35).
Trn sng M Cng, theo tnh ton ca y Hi sng M Cng
Quc t - MRC [37], bin i kh hu (khng xt n nh hng
ca cc h cha) c th s lm cho dng chy trung bnh ma cn
tng khong 20% ti Kratie trn sng M Cng v trn di 10%
ti Tn Chu trn sng Tin vo nhng nm gia th k 21. Dng
chy 3 thng cn nht trung bnh thi k 2010-2050 c xu th tng
nhng khng qu 10% c hai kch bn A2 v B2 ti Tn Chu trn
sng Tin v Chu c trn sng Hu. Dng chy 1 thng cn nht
trung bnh thi k 2010-2050 gim khong -5% i vi kch bn
B2 v tng khong 3% kch bn A2 ti trm Tn Chu. Khi xt
n tc ng iu tit ca h thng h cha kt hp vi nh hng
184

ca bin i kh hu trong tng lai, dng chy trung bnh ma cn

c th tng trn di 40% ti Kratie v khong di 20% ti Tn
Chu (bng 4.27).
Tm li, bin i kh hu s lm thay i cc c trng dng chy
ca tt c cc sng trn lnh th Vit Nam, xu th bin i cng
nh mc bin i l khc nhau gia cc h thng sng trong cc
vng cng nh gia cc c trng dng chy trn cng dng sng.
Tng hp s bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm v cc ma ti
mt s trm thy vn i din trn mt s sng vo gia th k 21
c trnh by trong hnh 4.36.
Bng 4.27: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti mt s trm thy
vn trn sng M Cng so vi thi k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin i kh
hu v pht trin khai thc s dng nc [37]
Kch bn
pht trin Q trung bnh
ma cn
(m3/s)

2010-2050

Kch bn pht trin nn

Kch bn pht trin

Kratie
A2 Phnom Penh
Tan Chau
Kratie
B2 Phnom Penh
Tan Chau

2010-2050

Trm

Thay i
dng chy
trung bnh
ma cn
(m3/s)

1985-2000

Kch
bn
BKH

Kch bn pht
trin nn Q trung bnh
ma cn
(m3/s)

3.622
3.718
5.052
3.622
3.718
5.052

4.420
4.492
5.700
4.301
4.359
5.586

5.204
5.279
6.066
5.149
5.198
5.914

798
774
648
679
641
534

1.582
1.561
1.014
1.527
1.480
862

Thay i dng chy (%)

Dng
chy
trung
bnh ma
cn, Kch
bn pht
trin nn
22,0
20,8
12,8
18,7
17,2
10,6

Dng
chy
trung
bnh ma
cn, Kch
bn pht
trin
43,7
42,0
20,1
42,2
39,8
17,1

Dng
chy 3
thng
min, Kch
bn pht
trin nn

Dng
chy 1
thng
min, Kch
bn pht
trin nn

5,5
7,0
7,1
2,9
1,7
1,4

-0,1
1,4
1,3
-4,6
-4,4
-4,8

185

186

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

1980- 2020 - 204020801999
2039
2059
2099
364
352
347
340
361
361
360
359
498
492
490
489
62,8
63,5
62,9
62,4
145
138
137
135
366
360
355
350
487
478
472
464
188
189
187
184
69,1
67,8
66,7
65,4
20,4
20,1
19,9
19,6
15,0
14,2
13,7
13,0
196
191
187
183
72,6
72,2
71,7
71,2
108
103
100
95,9
49,6
48,7
48,1
47,4
12,8
12,0
11,5
10,9
122
113
109
103
121
117
114
111
29,4
28,2
27,5
26,2
21,3
21,0
20,9
20,7
71,9
69,0
68,0
67,0

Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999

Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
%
%
%
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
-11,7
-3,23
-16,8
-4,62
-24,0
-6,58
-0,05
-0,01
-1,67
-0,46
-2,03
-0,56
-5,56
-1,12
-7,92
-1,59
-8,55
-1,72
0,69
1,10
0,08
0,13
-0,35
-0,56
-6,72
-4,63
-8,58
-5,91
-10,6
-7,30
-6,23
-1,70
-11,1
-3,03
-16,7
-4,56
-8,49
-1,74
-14,8
-3,05
-22,2
-4,56
1,19
0,63
-1,44
-0,76
-4,62
-2,46
-1,33
-1,92
-2,38
-3,45
-3,72
-5,39
-0,37
-1,79
-0,58
-2,84
-0,85
-4,14
-0,79
-5,26
-1,25
-8,36
-1,94
-12,9
-4,68
-2,39
-8,79
-4,48
-13,0
-6,65
-0,39
-0,53
-0,91
-1,26
-1,39
-1,91
-5,10
-4,72
-8,10
-7,50
-12,1
-11,2
-0,90
-1,81
-1,50
-3,02
-2,20
-4,44
-0,84
-6,58
-1,32
-10,3
-1,91
-15,0
-9,00
-7,38
-13,0
-10,7
-19,0
-15,6
-4,20
-3,48
-6,30
-5,22
-10,0
-8,29
-1,20
-4,08
-1,90
-6,46
-3,20
-10,9
-0,30
-1,41
-0,40
-1,88
-0,60
-2,82
-2,90
-4,03
-3,90
-5,42
-4,90
-6,82

Bng 4.25: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch bn B2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]

187

Trm

Yn Bi
Lai Chu
T B
H Giang
Hm Yn
Ghnh G
V Quang
Chim Ha
Bo Yn
Thc Bi
Ch
Da
Ngha n
Nng Sn
Thnh M
An Kh
Cng Sn
Tr An
T Pao
Phc Long
Phc Ha

TT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Thao

L
L
L
L
Gm
Chy
Cu
Lc Nam
C
Hiu
Thu Bn
Ci
Ba
Ba
ng Nai
La Ng
B
B

Sng
48.000
33.800
45.900
8.298
11.900
29.600
36.790
16.500
4.960
2.220
2.090
20.800
4.024
3.155
1.850
1.440
12.800
14.800
2.010
2.370
5.240

Din tch
lu vc
(km2)

Lu lng trung bnh thi k (m3/s)

1980- 2020 - 204020801999
2039
2059
2099
364
352
348
338
361
361
360
360
498
492
490
490
62,8
63,5
62,9
62,5
145
138
136
133
366
360
355
348
487
478
472
462
188
189
187
183
69,1
67,8
66,8
65,1
20,4
20,1
19,9
19,5
15,0
14,2
13,8
12,8
196
191
187
183
72,6
72,1
71,7
71,1
108
103
100
94,6
49,6
48,7
48,2
47,2
12,8
12,0
11,5
10,7
122
113
109
101
121
117
114
110
29,4
28,2
27,5
25,9
21,3
21
20,9
20,4
71,9
69
67,8
65,9
Mc bin i so vi thi k 1980-1999
Thi k 2020-2039 Thi k 2040-2059 Thi k 2080-2099
%
%
%
m3/s
m3/s
m3/s
-11,9
-3,26
-16,4
-4,51
-26,3
-7,21
-0,10
-0,03
-1,5
-0,42
-1,03
-0,29
-5,6
-1,12
-7,8
-1,56
-7,86
-1,58
0,69
1,09
0,112
0,179
-0,27
-0,43
-7,05
-4,85
-8,99
-6,19
-12,1
-8,31
-6,64
-1,81
-11,4
-3,10
-18,9
-5,16
-8,93
-1,84
-15,0
-3,08
-24,8
-5,09
1,15
0,61
-1,27
-0,67
-5,24
-2,78
-1,34
-1,93
-2,30
-3,33
-4,07
-5,89
-0,37
-1,79
-0,57
-2,78
-0,90
-4,41
-0,80
-5,32
-1,22
-8,14
-2,17
-14,5
-4,86
-2,48
-8,55
-4,36
-13,3
-6,79
-0,41
-0,56
-0,88
-1,22
-1,41
-1,94
-5,10
-4,72
-7,90
-7,31
-13,4
-12,4
-0,90
-1,81
-1,40
-2,82
-2,40
-4,84
-0,84
-6,58
-1,27
-9,92
-2,07
-16,2
-9,00
-7,38
-13,0
-10,7
-21,0
-17,2
-4.10
-3.40
-6.30
-5.22
-10.3
-8.53
-1,20
-4,08
-1,90
-6,46
-3,50
-11,9
-0,30
-1,41
-0,40
-1,88
-0,90
-4,23
-2,90
-4,03
-4,10
-5,70
-6,00
-8,34

Bng 4.26: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch bn A2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]

Hnh 4.35: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti mt s

trm thy vn trn mt s sng theo hai kch bn A2 v B2 vi thi
k 1980-1999 [19].

188

Hnh 4.35: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti mt s

trm thy vn trn mt s sng theo hai kch bn A2 v B2 vi thi
k 1980-1999 [19]. (tip theo)

189

Hnh 4.36: Tng hp s bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm v cc ma

ti mt s trm thy vn i din trn mt s sng vo gia th k 21 [19].

190

4.5.5. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n l lt, ngp lt

Nh trn trnh by, di tc ng ca BKH, lng dng
chy l cng vi lu lng nh l c xu th gia tng, dn n
kh nng xy ra cc trn l ln hn trong tng lai v do gia
tng mc nguy him ca l lt, nh e da h thng sng
v ngp lt ng bng h lu cc sng.
Nh bit, ng bng h lu hai h thng sng Hng - Thi
Bnh v sng C c cc h cha ln cng vi h thng sng
bo v. V vy, i vi hai h thng sng ny khng tnh ton
ngp lt m tnh ton mc nc cao nht trong sng ti mt s v
tr quan trng c th xy ra trong tng lai c m phng theo
trn l rt ln/l lch s xy ra trong thi k nn 1980-1999.
Trn l lch s s c thu phng theo t l gia tng ca lu lng
trung bnh ngy ln nht v tng lng l ng vi cc kch bn
bin i kh hu theo cc thi k. Kt hp vi nc bin dng,
l thng ngun gia tng s dn n mc nc dc sng s dng
cao hn trong cc trn l ln, uy hip cc h cha v h thng .
Gi thit cc h cha s ct l y dung tch phng l ca tng h
cha, lng l cn li khng c tr trong h cha s x xung
h lu v c din ton bng m hnh thy lc cho n bin. Mc
nc cao nht ti mt s v tr dc sng ng bng h lu sng
Hng - Thi Bnh v sng C c a ra trong bng 4.28 [19].
i vi h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh, trn l lch s nm 1996
trn sng c la chn l l in hnh. Cc h cha tham gia
ct l bao gm cc h cha Sn La, Ha Bnh trn sng , h
cha Thc B trn sng Chy v h cha Tuyn Quang trn sng
Gm. i vi h thng sng C, trn l lch s nm 1988 c
la chn tnh ton, vi s tham gia ct l ca cc h cha Bn
V, Bn Mng, Ngn Tri v Thc Mui.
191

Bng 4.28: Mc nc cao nht ti mt s v tr trn h thng sng Hng Thi Bnh v sng C ca con l lch s c s tham gia iu tit ca h thng h
cha [19]
H thng sng

V tr

Mc nc nh l ca con l lch s ng vi cc thi k (m)

Nn

2020 - 2039

2040 - 2059

2080 - 2099

Kch bn A2

Hng Thi
Bnh

Sng C

192

Vit Tr

15,85

15,99

16,06

16,36

Trung H

17,28

17,44

17,51

17,85

Sn Ty

14,51

14,65

14,71

15,02

H Ni

11,42

11,55

11,62

11,92

Hng Yn

7,26

7,35

7,4

7,62

Thng Ct

11,4

11,54

11,61

11,9

Triu Dng

6,58

6,68

6,73

6,97

Ph Li

6,29

6,41

6,47

6,71

Bn Bnh

5,07

5,19

5,24

5,47

Lng

19,4

19,4

19,5

20,0

Ca sng Ging

16,3

16,3

16,4

16,7

Dng

14,3

14,4

14,4

14,8

Yn Thng

11,4

11,4

11,4

11,7

Ca sng Gang

10,5

10,5

10,5

10,8

Nam n

9,59

9,62

9,62

9,83

Cu Yn Xun

6,93

6,95

6,98

7,14

Ch Trng

6,56

6,57

6,61

6,76

Cng Bn Thu

5,24

5,26

5,29

5,48

Hng Ho

4,43

4,50

4,53

4,72

Ro ng

3,08

3,12

3,15

3,50

Bng 4.28: Mc nc cao nht ti mt s v tr trn h thng sng Hng Thi Bnh v sng C ca con l lch s c s tham gia iu tit ca h thng h
cha [19] (tip theo)
H thng
sng

V tr

Mc nc nh l ca con l lch s ng vi cc thi k (m)

Nn

2020 - 2039

2040 - 2059

2080 - 2099

Kch bn B2
Vit Tr

15,85

15,96

16,07

16,24

Trung H

17,28

17,39

17,51

17,71

Sn Ty

14,51

14,62

14,72

14,9

H Ni

11,42

11,52

11,63

11,8

7,26

7,33

7,41

7,53

Thng Ct

11,4

11,51

11,61

11,79

Triu Dng

6,58

6,66

6,74

6,88

Ph Li

6,29

6,4

6,48

6,62

Bn Bnh

5,07

5,17

5,24

5,38

Lng

19,4

19,5

19,5

19,8

Ca sng Ging

16,3

16,3

16,4

16,6

Dng

14,3

14,4

14,4

14,7

Yn Thng

11,4

11,4

11,4

11,6

Ca sng Gang

10,5

10,5

10,5

10,7

Nam n

9,59

9,63

9,65

9,77

Cu Yn Xun

6,93

6,96

6,97

7,07

Ch Chng

6,56

6,56

6,59

6,69

Cng Bn Thu

5,24

5,26

5,28

5,40

Hng Ho

4,43

4,48

4,52

4,63

Ro ng

3,08

3,09

3,13

3,37

Hng Thi Bnh Hng Yn

Sng C

193

Mc du c s iu tit ct l ca cc h cha, l ln kt hp
nc bin dng, vo cui th k 21, mc nc l ln nht trn
sng Hng ti H Ni vn vt bo ng 3 (11,5 m) khong
0,5 m nu xy ra tnh hung l nh trn l nm 1996. Tng t,
trn sng C, xy ra l c dng l tng t dng ca trn l ln
nm 1988, mc nc ti Nam n vn vt mc bo ng 3
khong 1,8m.
i vi cc lu vc sng Thu Bn, sng Ba, ng Nai v BSCL,
s gia tng dng chy l cng vi nc bin dng s lm cho tnh
hnh ngp lt cng thm nghim trng vng ng bng h lu.
M phng trn l lch s xy ra trn lu vc di tc ng ca
BKH kt hp vi nc bin dng cho thy, thi gian ngp ko
di, su ngp lt, din tch ngp tng ln r rt (hnh 4.37).
i vi sng Thu Bn, vo nm 2050 v 2100 nu xy ra trn
l c bit ln c dng l tng t dng trn l lch s xy
ra vo nm 1999, mc du c s tham gia ct l ca cc h cha
thy in nhng din tch ngp lt tng t 1,5 % n 4 % so vi
hin trng (cc bng 4.29 - 4.30).
i vi sng Ba, c th xy ra trn l c bit ln c dng l
tng t dng ca trn l lch s nm 1993, sau khi c s tham
gia ct l ca cc h cha ln trn sng, din tch ngp lt c
th tng 3,5 % vo nm 2050 v 6,5% vo nm 2100 i vi
kch bn B2 v t 3,6 % n 8,2% i vi kch bn A2 (bng
4.31 - 4.32).
i vi sng ng Nai, din tch ngp ca trn l ln theo dng
trn l nm 2000 c th s tng t 13% vo nm 2050 ln n
18% vo nm 2010. Mc d h Tr An v h Du Ting tham gia
194

ct gim l nhng s nh hng tng hp ca nc bin dng

cng vi l thng ngun s lm ngp lt h du sng ng Nai
ngy cng trm trng (bng 4.33 - 4.34).

Hnh 4.37: Bin i ca din tch ngp lt h lu mt s lu vc

sng khi xy ra cc trn l ln, ng vi kch bn B2 [19].

195

Bng 4.29: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Thu Bn vi dng trn l nm1999 c xt n iu tit l cc h cha,
kch bn A2 [19]
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

Tng

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

13.950
13.880
30.710
10.680
981
1.375
71.576
14.360
13.690
30.870
10.840
1.026
1.430
72.216
14.570
13.860
30.990
11.330
1.057
1.478
73.285

1980
1999

2020
2039

2040
2059

196

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
t
v cng
thy
nghip
khc
nghip
sn
4.539
7.405
0
2.006
4.387
7.745
0
1.748
10.064
16.892
0
3.754
2.989
6.191
0
1.501
261
604
0
116
376
654
0
345
22.615 39.491
0 9.470
4.673
7.621
0
2.066
4.325
7.641
0
1.724
10.118
16.980
0
3.772
3.034
6.283
0
1.524
273
632
0
121
391
680
0
359
22.813 39.836
0 9.567
4.741
7.733
0
2.096
4.378
7.736
0
1.746
10.155
17.046
0
3.789
3.171
6.567
0
1.593
281
650
0
125
404
703
0
371
23.129 40.436
0 9.720

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
3.374
8.147
20.193
22.042
17.211
78.498
149.465
3.155
7.032
20.284
22.027
16.745
81.632
150.877
3.239
6.390
20.745
22.997
18.525
79.647
151.544

0,89

2.39

Bng 4.29: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Thu Bn vi dng trn l nm1999 c xt n iu tit l cc h cha,
kch bn A2 [19] (tip theo)
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

2060
2079

2080
2099

Tng

<0,5 14.840
0,5 - 1 14.050
1-2 31.180
2-3 11.450
3-4
1.107
>4
1.552
Tng 74.179
<0,5 15.030
0,5 - 1 14.250
1-2 31.600
2-3 11.670
3-4
1.208
>4
1.664
Tng 75.422

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
t
v cng
thy
nghip
khc
nghip
sn
4.826
7.877
0
2.137
4.438
7.842
0
1.770
10.213
17.152
0
3.815
3.204
6.636
0
1.609
295
681
0
131
424
738
0
390
23.401 40.926
0
9.852
4.888
7.980
0
2.162
4.502
7.953
0
1.796
10.349
17.384
0
3.868
3.267
6.763
0
1.640
322
743
0
142
455
791
0
418
23.782 41.614
0 10.026

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
3.059
5.724
20.562
22.788
18.474
82.546
153.151
2.987
5.197
23.707
21.561
18.330
86.766
158.548

3,64

5,37

197

Bng 4.30: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Thu Bn vi dng trn l nm 1999 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn B2 [19]
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

1980
1999

2020
2039

2040
2059

198

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
13.950
13.880
30.710
10.680
981
1.375
71.576
14.040
13.870
30.870
10.820
1.001
1.399
72.000
14.250
13.940
30.830
11.010
1.006
1.420
72.456

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
4.539
7.405 0
4.387
7.745 0
10.064
16.892 0
2.989
6.191 0
261
604 0
376
654 0
22.615 39.491 0
4.568
7.453 0
4.382
7.741 0
10.118
16.979 0
3.028
6.272 0
267
616 0
382
665 0
22.744 39.726 0
4.637
7.563 0
4.403
7.781 0
10.102
16.959 0
3.081
6.381 0
268
619 0
388
675 0
22.880 39.978 0

t
khc

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)

2.006
1.748
3.754
1.501
116
345
9.470
2.020
1.746
3.773
1.520
118
351
9.530
2.050
1.756
3.769
1.548
119
356
9.599

3.374
8.147
20.193
22.042
17.211
78.498
149.465
3.143
7.067
20.253
22.008
16.799
81.650
150.921
3.234
6.364
20.760
22.987
18.496
79.747
151.588

0,59

1,23

Bng 4.30: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Thu Bn vi dng trn l nm 1999 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn B2 [19] (tip theo)
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

2060
2079

2080
2099

<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
14.420
14.130
30.980
11.330
1.107
1.534
73.501
14.610
14.230
31.280
11.450
1.208
1.651
74.429

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
4.692
7.654 0
4.463
7.887 0
10.149
17.041 0
3.170
6.567 0
295
681 0
419
729 0
23.188 40.559 0
4.752
7.756 0
4.495
7.942 0
10.244
17.207 0
3.205
6.636 0
322
743 0
452
785 0
23.469 41.070 0

t
khc

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)

2.075
1.780
3.791
1.593
131
385
9.754
2.103
1.792
3.829
1.609
143
415
9.891

3.142
5.827
20.626
22.541
18.919
81.870
152.923
3.043
5.403
21.128
22.383
18.537
82.900
153.395

2,69

3,99

199

Bng 4.31: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Ba vi dng trn l nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha trong
theo kch bn A2 [19]
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

1980
1999

2020
2039

2040
2059

200

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
1.355
2.550
5.480
5.747
4.866
18.583
38.582
1.196
2.556
5.210
5.991
4.602
19.723
39.279
1.050
2.404
5.104
5.944
4.511
20.895
39.908

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
t
t
t nng
t hng
ngp so vi
v cng
thy
nghip
khc (ngi) thi k nn (%)
nghip
sn
197
955 0
204
5.946
376
1.831 0
342
12.062
677
3.830 0
973
25.418
552
3.827 0
1.368
26.611
459
2.517 0
1.890
16.661
1.021
9.760 0
7.802
57.946
3.282 22.720 0 12.579 144.646
0
184
789 0
222
5.355
370
1.783 0
403
11.704
648
3.592 0
970
23.883
531
3.965 0
1.495
28.345
459
2.340 0
1.803
16.146
1.106
10.193 0
8.424
61.413
3.299 22.663 0 13.317 146.847
1,81
164
690 0
195
4.654
351
1.656 0
396
10.543
697
3.461 0
945
23.687
576
3.906 0
1.462
28.284
449
2.440 0
1.622
16.459
1.199
10.740 0
8.957
65.154
3.437 22.893 0 13.578 148.781
3,44

Bng 4.31: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Ba vi dng trn l nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha trong
theo kch bn A2 [19] (tip theo)
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

2060
2079

2080
2099

<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
932
2.146
5.120
5.601
4.638
22.320
40.756
857
1.830
5.104
5.415
4.793
23.744
41.742

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
t
t
t nng
t hng
ngp so vi
v cng
thy
nghip
khc (ngi) thi k nn (%)
nghip
sn
143
594 0
195
4.200
313
1.485 0
347
9.168
716
3.436 0
968
23.319
596
3.741 0
1.264
26.834
442
2.537 0
1.659
18.264
1.323
11.454 0
9.542
69.470
3.533 23.247 0 13.976 151.255
5,63
157
499 0
200
3.681
292
1.175 0
363
8.234
720
3.426 0
957
22.344
564
3.633 0
1.217
24.289
414
2.742 0
1.636
19.994
1.453
12.134 0
10.157
76.255
3.601 23.611 0 14.531 154.799
8,19

201

Bng 4.32:Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Ba vi dng trn l nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha theo
kch bn B2 [19]
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

1980
1999

2020
2039

2040
2059

202

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
1.355
2.550
5.480
5.747
4.866
18.583
38.582
1.198
2.560
5.208
5.990
4.598
19.727
39.281
1.082
2.406
5.118
5.949
4.516
20.900
39.971

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
t
t
t nng
t hng
ngp so vi
v cng
thy
nghip
khc (ngi) thi k nn (%)
nghip
sn
197
955 0
204
5.946
376
1.831 0
342
12.062
677
3.830 0
973
25.418
552
3.827 0
1.368
26.611
459
2.517 0
1.890
16.661
1.021
9.760 0
7.802
57.946
3.282 22.720 0 12.579 144.646
0
186
790 0
222
5.368
370
1.786 0
404
11.741
647
3.590 0
970
23.866
531
3.964 0
1.495
28.327
459
2.339 0
1.800
16.127
1.106
10.194 0
8.427
61.421
3.300 22.664 0 13.318 146.850
1,81
166
691 0
225
4.670
349
1.660 0
396
10.553
698
3.466 0
954
23.693
576
3.911 0
1.462
28.298
448
2.448 0
1.620
16.437
1.201
10.730 0
8.968
65.143
3.439 22.907 0 13.625 148.794
3,60

Bng 4.32:Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng Ba vi dng trn l nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha theo
kch bn B2 [19] (tip theo)
su
Thi k ngp
(m)

2060
2079

2080
2099

<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
1.086
2.252
5.236
5.810
4.632
21.823
40.839
883
2.002
5.220
5.664
4.862
22.450
41.081

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
t
t
t nng
t hng
ngp so vi
v cng
thy
nghip
khc (ngi) thi k nn (%)
nghip
sn
176
703 0
207
4.788
333
1.524 0
395
9.774
692
3.528 0
1.016
23.546
570
3.938 0
1.302
28.043
439
2.469 0
1.724
17.444
1.271
11.125 0
9.428
68.055
3.482 23.286 0 14.071 151.650
5,85
142
538 0
203
3.937
302
1.339 0
361
8.358
742
3.508 0
970
23.473
579
3.752 0
1.333
26.567
414
2.749 0
1.699
19.833
1.384
11.469 0
9.597
70.063
3.564 23.354 0 14.162 152.233
6,48

203

Bng 4.33: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng ng Nai vi dng trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn A2 [19]

2040 2059

2020 2039

1980 1999

su
Thi k ngp
(m)

204

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
181.922
64.936
2.038
0
0
99
248.995
115.338
83.313
69.614
3.305
0
102
271.672
121.415
83.095
77.490
3.514
0
102
285.616

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
28.289 107.989 410
9.394
29.199 0
267
1.462 0
0
0 0
0
0 0
78
0 0
38.028 138.650 410
20.448
82.795 111
16.943
41.063 411
6.097
28.156 0
1.559
1.104 0
0
0 0
80
0 0
45.127 153.118 522
21.410
90.055 92
16.523
47.408 361
9.024
24.834 69
1.621
1.110 0
0
0 0
80
0 0
48.658 163.408 522

t
khc
45.234
26.343
309
0
0
21
71.907
11.984
24.896
35.361
642
0
22
72.905
9.857
18.803
43.563
783
0
22
73.028

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
2.820.000
800.000
250.000
0
0
0
3.870.000
1.530.000
2.290.000
510.000
0
0
0
4.340.000
1.520.000
2.310.000
790.000
0
0
0
4.630.000

9,11

14,7

Bng 4.33: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng ng Nai vi dng trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn A2 [19] (tip theo)

2080 2099

2060 2079

su
Thi k ngp
(m)
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
57.317
106.958
123.601
3.844
0
102
291.822
30.176
119.844
162.210
5.662
0
268
318.160

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
12.181
40.663 92
21.473
76.722 0
15.292
48.310 430
1.877
1.120 0
0
0 0
80
0 0
50.902 166.815 522
4.419
17.503 92
22.037
92.001 0
26.541
74.201 430
3.142
2.271 0
0
0 0
221
0 0
56.360 185.976 522

t
khc
4.380
8.764
59.570
847
0
22
73.582
8.162
5.805
61.038
249
0
47
75.302

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
880.000
2.450.000
1.480.000
0
0
0
4.800.000
1.510.000
810.000
2.970.000
110.000
0
0
5.400.000

17,2

27,8

205

Bng 4.34: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng ng Nai vi dng trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn B2 [19]

2040 2059

2020 2039

1980 1999

su
Thi k ngp
(m)

206

<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
181.922
64.936
2.038
0
0
99
248.995
112.018
84.687
70.198
2.715
0
102
269.720
117.975
85.745
76.920
2.834
0
102
283.576

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
28.289 107.989 410
9.394
29.199 0
267
1.462 0
0
0 0
0
0 0
78
0 0
38.028 138.650 410
16.583
82.277 19
17.288
41.483 411
9.488
27.479 0
1.169
1.000 0
0
0 0
81
0 0
44.610 152.239 430
24.742
88.161 92
12.015
48.422 361
10.063
24.544 69
1.264
1.000 0
0
0 0
81
0 0
48.166 162.128 522

t
khc
45.234
26.343
309
0
0
21
71.907
13.139
25.504
33.232
546
0
21
72.441
4.980
24.946
42.244
570
0
21
72.760

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
2.820.000
800.000
250.000
0
0
0
3.870.000
1.390.000
2.050.000
470.000
0
0
0
3.910.000
1.460.000
2.260.000
790.000
0
0
0
4.520.000

8,32

13,9

Bng 4.34: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt h lu h thng

sng ng Nai vi dng trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn B2 [19]

2080 2099

2060 2079

su
Thi k ngp
(m)
<0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng
<0,5
0,5 1
1-2
2-3
3-4
>4
Tng

Tng
56.755
114.995
112.000
3.675
0
102
287.527
20.894
145.476
123.820
4.785
0
102
295.077

Din tch t b ngp (ha)

t
t
t nng
v cng
thy
nghip
nghip
sn
12.325
40.529 92
22.200
79.380 19
13.466
42.563 411
1.800
1.336 0
0
0 0
81
0 0
49.872 163.808 522
6.720
10.930 92
27.545 104.814 0
14.478
51.886 430
2.297
1.885 0
0
0 0
81
0 0
51.121 169.516 522

t
khc
3.809
13.397
55.560
539
0
21
73.325
3.152
13.116
57.027
603
0
21
73.918

S dn Mc bin i
b nh tng din tch
hng
ngp so vi
(ngi) thi k nn (%)
890.000
2.470.000
1.330.000
0
0
0
4.680.000
780.000
1.370.000
2.570.000
40.000
0
0
4.760.000

15,8

18,5

207

 BSCL, vo nhng nm l sng M Cng ln, din tch

ngp lt gn 2 triu ha, ko di 3-5 thng, gy nhiu thit hi v
ngi v ti sn. Tuy nhin, l cng mang li ngun ph sa bi
b cho t, ngun thu sn phong ph v c tc dng tt trong
vic v sinh ng rung. Cc trn l ln xy trong trong tng
lai vo nhng nm gia th k 21 kt hp vi nc bin dng
khong 30 cm s lm cho din tch b ngp lt tng trn 25% so
vi din tch ngp lt trong trn l lch s nm 2000. Din tch
ngp chim gn 90% ton b din tch t nhin ton BSCL.
Din tch ngp lt vi ngp trn 0,5 m c th ti 2.666.750
ha (chim 68,3% din tch ton BSCL), tng so vi hin trng
l nm 2000 l 1.160.653 ha (tng ng 29,5% din tch t
nhin). Din tch ngp lt vi ngp trn 1,0 m ln nht ln
n 1.522.700 ha (chim 40% din tch ton BSCL), tng so
vi hin trng l nm 2000 khong 503.100 ha (tng ng 14%
din tch t nhin).
L gy ngp lt cc vng ng Thp Mi (TM) v T Gic
Long Xuyn (TGLX), c bit vng kp gia 2 sng Tin v
sng Hu c th b ngp lt nghim trng hn. Ngoi cc thnh
ph/th x hin nay thng b ngp l nh Chu c, Long
Xuyn, Cao Lnh, s c thm Sa c, Vnh Long, Tn An,
M Tho, Cn Th, V Thanh, Sc Trng, Rch Gi v H Tin
cng c th s b ngp trn 1,0 m, trong nghim trng nht
l TP.Cn Th v TX.Vnh Long.
Nc bin dng lm cho tiu thot nc cc thnh ph/th x
M Tho, Bn Tre, Tr Vinh, Bc Liu v C Mau kh khn hn.
L thng ngun ngy cng c xu th tng, nc bin dng
cao hn ch kh nng tiu thot l trn h thng sng trong
208

BSCL, gy nn ngp lt trm trng hn. iu ny dn n

thi gian l ln sm hn v rt cng mun hn, dn n kh
khn hn trong tiu thot nc v b tr ma v. Theo quy
hoch s dng t n nm 2010, th din tch t sn xut nng
nghip b ngp ln nht c th t 2.086.420 ha chim 53% t
t nhin BSCL, t sn xut cng nghip v dn c ln nht
c th t 494.350 ha 12,6% t t nhin BSCL v t thy
sn c th t 248.840 ha 6,3% t t nhin BSCL.( bng 4.35
v 4.36 v hnh 4.38). Hnh 4.39 l s ngp lt tng ng
hai kch bn B2 v A2 h lu cc h thng sng Thu Bn, Ba,
ng Nai v ng bng sng Cu Long.

Hnh 4.38: Bin i ca din tch ngp lt BSCL khi xy ra cc

trn l ln ng vi kch bn B2 [37]

209

Bng 4.35: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca trn l ln ng

bng sng Cu Long tng ng vi kch bn A2 [19]
Din tch t b ngp (ha)

2000

su
Thi
ngp
k
(m)

Tng

t nng
t
t
t thy nghip v cng nng
sn thy sn
nghip nghip
kt hp

<0,5

1.210.551

474.885 197.069 218.073 248.239

735.666

4.010.000

0,5 1

510.763

242.175

69.921

45.263 108.118

268.588

2.710.000

1-2

534.572

337.642

69.122

17.269 40.451

196.930

2.160.000

2-3

365.145

250.420

41.219

5.249 21.589

114.725

1.480.000

3-4

112.044

82.832

8.697

1.052 2.850

29.212

432.000

>4

7.843

3.551

1.167

4.292

44.000

2020-2029

Tng

2.740.919 1.391.506 387.196 286.906 421.247 1.349.413 10.800.000

<0,5

1.247.594

307.553 210.746 265.668 237.702

940.042

5.520.000

0,5 1

707.179

426.101 122.735

93.787 163.257

281.078

3.480.000

1-2

570.869

361.445

69.908

13.531 38.713

209.424

2.180.000

2-3

353.942

23.512

17.485

2.087 9.881

330.431

1.460.000

3-4

124.390

2.598

2.116

1.549

121.792

435.000

>4

7.894

435

7.459

45.000

Tng

210

Mc bin
i tng
S dn b
din tch
nh hng
ngp so vi
t khc (ngi)
thi k nn
(%)

228
0

3.011.868 1.121.644 422.997 376.620 449.782 1.890.224 13.100.000

9,89

Bng 4.35: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca trn l ln ng

bng sng Cu Long tng ng vi kch bn A2 [19] (tip theo)
Din tch t b ngp (ha)

2030-2039

su
Thi
ngp
k
(m)

Tng

t nng
t
t
t thy nghip v cng nng
sn thy sn
nghip nghip
kt hp

<0,5

1.028.156

357.500 171.174 267.076 165.109

670.656

4.300.000

0,5 1

901.002

372.096 143.246 111.642 217.766

528.907

4.350.000

1-2

692.562

422.611

86.964

36.141 72.639

269.951

3.040.000

2-3

388.906

261.692

49.334

7.772 22.719

127.214

1.660.000

3-4

197.562

144.462

16.013

1.482 6.714

53.100

677.000

>4

11.219

5.415

1.673

5.804

61.000

Tng

2040-2049

Mc bin
i tng
S dn b
din tch
nh hng
ngp so vi
t khc (ngi)
thi k nn
(%)

3.219.407 1.563.775 468.404 424.113 484.947 1.655.632 14.100.000

<0,5

847.654

260.893 133.946 248.593 118.967

586.761

3.220.000

0,5 1

1.144.046

413.549 178.983 211.373 232.520

730.497

4.900.000

1-2

923.021

574.444 135.748

72.610 139.739

348.577

4.650.000

2-3

387.695

257.632

48.894

4.455 25.494

130.062

1.680.000

3-4

200.696

132.985

15.728

1.947 5.508

67.712

710.000

>4

11.290

4.746

1.759

6.544

63.000

Tng

43

3.514.403 1.644.250 515.058 538.978 522.272 1.870.153 15.200.000

17,5

28,2

211

Bng 4.36: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca trn l ln ng

bng sng Cu Long tng ng vi kch bn B2 [19]
Din tch t b ngp (ha)

2000

su
Thi
ngp
k
(m)

Tng

t nng
t
t
t thy nghip v cng nng
sn thy sn
nghip nghip
kt hp

<0,5

1.210.551

474.885 197.069 218.073 248.239

735.666

4.010.000

0,5 1

510.763

242.175

69.921

45.263 108.118

268.588

2.710.000

1-2

534.572

337.642

69.122

17.269 40.451

196.930

2.160.000

2-3

365.145

250.420

41.219

5.249 21.589

114.725

1.480.000

3-4

112.044

82.832

8.697

1.052 2.850

29.212

432.000

>4

7.843

3.551

1.167

4.292

44.000

2020-2029

Tng

2.740.919 1.391.506 387.196 286.906 421.247 1.349.413 10.800.000

<0,5

1.343.392

460.831 202.799 267.231 237.730

882.561

5.250.000

0,5 1

595.224

320.113 100.535

82.009 142.626

275.111

3.520.000

1-2

541.600

372.760

74.447

20.601 47.279

168.840

2.450.000

2-3

360.614

243.614

41.133

2.791 21.254

117.000

1.490.000

3-4

112.935

91.218

9.612

1.427 3.008

21.718

459.000

>4

7.907

3.611

1.165

4.295

44.000

Tng

212

Mc bin
i tng
S dn b
din tch
nh hng
ngp so vi
t khc (ngi)
thi k nn
(%)

2.961.673 1.492.146 429.691 374.059 451.898 1.469.526 13.200.000

8,05

Bng 4.36: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca trn l ln ng

bng sng Cu Long tng ng vi kch bn B2 [19] (tip theo)
Din tch t b ngp (ha)

2030-2039

su
Thi
ngp
k
(m)

Tng

t nng
t
t
t thy nghip v cng nng
sn thy sn
nghip nghip
kt hp

<0,5

1.162.840

418.291 193.174 279.549 199.598

744.549

4.810.000

0,5 1

884.471

378.653 132.624 105.498 199.057

505.818

4.360.000

1-2

651.902

412.013

82.799

35.576 57.565

239.890

2.730.000

2-3

369.154

251.283

43.204

4.649 22.708

117.871

1.550.000

3-4

129.021

92.385

10.024

1.549 3.398

36.636

497.000

>4

8.195

3.740

1.209

4.456

46.000

Tng

2040-2049

Mc bin
i tng
S dn b
din tch
nh hng
ngp so vi
t khc (ngi)
thi k nn
(%)

3.205.585 1.556.364 463.034 426.821 482.327 1.649.220 14.000.000

<0,5

822.728

271.111 141.018 250.801 125.808

551.616

3.420.000

0,5 1

1.119.506

422.545 181.854 212.146 248.221

696.961

5.120.000

1-2

991.947

539.448 124.261

69.340 117.126

452.500

4.160.000

2-3

381.317

259.308

49.895

7.792 25.200

122.009

1.670.000

3-4

187.069

143.318

16.446

1.928 6.630

43.751

710.000

>4

11.182

5.495

1.683

5.687

60.000

Tng

3.513.749 1.641.224 515.157 542.006 522.986 1.872.524 15.100.000

16,9

28,2

213

214

Hnh 4.39: Bn ngp lt ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng v

cc kch bn bin i kh hu A2 v B2 h lu cc h thng sng Thu Bn, Ba v ng
Nai v BSCL [19]

215

Hnh 4.39: Bn ngp lt ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng v

cc kch bn bin i kh hu A2 v B2 h lu cc h thng sng Thu Bn, Ba v ng
Nai v BSCL [19] (tip theo).

4.5.6. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n xm nhp mn

Theo d bo, nc bin dng trung bnh khong 30 cm vo nm
2050 v 75 cm vo nm 2100 kt hp vi dng chy kit pha
thng lu ngy cng gim s lm cho mn t bin xm nhp su
vo trong t lin. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nc bin
dng n xm nhp mn h lu cc h thng sng c nh
gi trn c s tnh ton bng m hnh thy lc vi bin trn l
lu lng trung bnh thng kit nht ca tng giai on 20 nm,
cng vi nc bin dng tng ng ti cc ca sng. Trong cc
bng 4.37 - 4.40 a ra chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v
4 tng ng vi cc cp mc nc bin dng v kch bn A2
v B2 vo cc thi k tng lai h lu cc h thng sng. Trong
hai bng 4.41 v 4.42 a ra din tch (theo bn quy hoch s
dng t n nm 2010) v dn s chu nh hng ca xm nhp
mn ng vi mn ln hn 1 v 4 .
T kt qu tnh ton cho thy, di tc ng ca nc bin dng
v thay i ngun nc thng lu do BKH, h lu cc h
thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh, ng Nai v BSCL, mn xm
nhp vo t lin su hn. Vo cui th k 21, chiu su xm
nhp ng vi mn 1 c th tng ln trn 20 km trn cc sng
sng ng Nai, sng Tin, sng Hu, xp x 10 km trn sng Thi
Bnh.
c bit, BSCL trong 50 nm ti, din tch xm nhp mn
trn 4 g/l chim 45% din tch ton BSCL, tng gn 400.000 ha
so vi trung bnh thi k 1990-1999. Vng chu nh hng ca
mn trn 1g/l chim khong 60% tch t nhin, tng khong
450.000 ha so vi hin nay. Gn 4/5 din tch vng bn o C
Mau b mn xm nhp (ngoi tr phn din tch Ty sng Hu).
216

Ton b din tch cc d n G Cng, Bo nh, Bc Bn Tre,

M Cy, Nam Mng Tht, Tip Nht... b mn bao bc v xm
nhp. Ranh gii mn 1 g/l trn sng Tin nm pha thng lu
TP.Vnh Long 3 km (cao hn hin nay 9,5 km) v trn sng Hu
cao hn hin nay 8,5 km. Ranh gii mn 4 g/l trn sng Tin cao
hn hin nay 9 km v trn sng Hu cch TP. Cn Th 1 km (cao
hn hin nay 8 km). Ngoi cc thnh ph/ th x Bn Lc, Tn
An, Bn Tre, Tr Vinh, Sc Trng, Bc Liu, C Mau, Rch Gi,
H Tin, s thm M Tho, Vnh Long v Cn Th b nh hng
do mn xm nhp su hn.
Cc hnh 4.40, 4.41 v 4.42 tng ng l s ng tr mn
1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2 ng
bng sng Hng - Thi Bnh, h lu h thng sng ng Nai v
BSCL.

217

218

Sng

y
Ninh C
Hng
Tr L
Hng-Thi Bnh Thi Bnh
Vn c
Lch Tray
Kinh Thy
Bch
C
C
V Gia
Thu Bn
Thu Bn
Ba
Ba
Si Gn
ng Nai
ng Nai
Sng Hu
ng bng sng Sng C Chin
Cu Long Sng M Tho
Vm C Ty

H thng sng

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 1 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
24,1 25,4 26,4 28,6
24,9 27,5 27,7 29,7
26,8 28,1 29,5 33,6
27,3 29,0 29,2 30,2
36,0 37,5 41,2 45,0
30,8 32,4 35,9 39,0
25,6 26,6 29,6 32,5
43,2 44,7 45,5 49,4
30,3 32,0 33,2 34,5
37 37,7 39,8 43,8
22,7 24,5 26,5 27,8
20,9 24,9 25,6 30,6
8,36 8,99 9,74 12,55
84,3 85,4 86,3 92,3
78,3 79,1 79,8 83,1
62,5 67,3 71,3
62,8 67,9 72,3
63,1 70,2 73,0
120 124,6 129,3

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 4 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng Thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
19,2 20,7 21,9 23,8
21,3 22,5 22,8 24,5
22,0 22,6 24,0 26,5
21,0 22,7 22,9 23,4
27,5 28,5 29,2 31,3
25,0 25,6 28,2 31,4
19,5 20,5 22,3 24,3
36,0 39,2 40,5 45,5
25,4 27,0 27,6 29,1
29,4 30,5
31 33,4
18,4 19,9 20,2 22,3
18,1 22,5 23,3 27,2
7,45 7,79 8,39 11,14
73,8 74,8 75,4 81,7
71,1 72,0 72,6 75,9
49,9 54,4 58,3
50,3 55,3 59,5
51,0 57,8 60,5
95,0 99,2 104,0

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 1 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,3
2,3
4,5
2,6
2,8
4,8
1,3
2,7
6,8
1,7
1,9
2,9
1,5
5,2
9,0
1,6
5,1
8,2
1,0
4,0
6,9
1,5
2,3
6,2
1,7
2,9
4,2
0,7
2,8
6,8
1,8
3,8
5,1
4,0
4,7
9,7
0,6
1,4
4,2
1,1
2,0
8,0
0,8
1,5
4,8
4,8
8,8
5,1
9,5
7,1
9,9
4,6
9,3

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 4 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,5
2,7
4,6
1,2
1,5
3,2
0,6
2,0
4,5
1,7
1,9
2,4
1,0
1,7
3,8
0,6
3,2
6,4
1,0
2,8
4,8
3,2
4,5
9,5
1,6
2,2
3,7
1,1
1,6
4,0
1,5
1,8
3,9
4,4
5,2
9,1
0,3
0,9
3,7
1,0
1,6
7,9
0,9
1,5
4,8
4,5
8,4
5,0
9,2
6,8
9,5
4,2
9,0

Bng 4.37: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi kch bn A2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]

219

Sng

y
Ninh C
Hng
Tr L
Hng-Thi Bnh Thi Bnh
Vn c
Lch Tray
Kinh Thy
Bch
C
C
V Gia
Thu Bn
Thu Bn
Ba
Ba
Si Gn
ng Nai
ng Nai
Sng Hu
ng bng sng Sng C Chin
Cu Long Sng M Tho
Vm C Ty

H thng sng

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 1 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
24,1 25,4 26,3 27,4
24,9 27,4 27,4 28,9
26,8 28,1 29,4 31,1
27,3 29,2 28,5 29,7
36,0 37,5 40,8 44,2
30,8 32,1 35,5 38,5
25,6 26,6 29,3 32,1
43,2 44,1 44,5 46,0
30,3 32,1 32,4 34,2
37 37,6 39,8 43,3
22,7 24,6 26,6 27,4
20,9 24,4 25,3 28,5
8,36
8,9 9,51 10,99
84,3 85,3 86,1 88,9
78,3 78,9 79,6 81,5
62,5 67,1 71,1
62,8 67,6 72,0
63,1 69,8 72,7
120,0 124,0 129,0

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 4 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng Thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
19,2 20,6 21,5 23,5
21,3 22,6 22,6 23,9
22,0 22,4 23,6 24,9
21,0 22,6 22,5 23,1
27,5 28,4 29,1 30,7
25,0 25,6 27,8 30,9
19,5 20,4 22,3 24,1
36,0 38,4 39,6 41,7
25,4 26,9 27,3 28,4
29,4 30,2 30,7 33,2
18,4 19,9 20,2 21,9
18,1
22
23 25,5
7,45 7,77
8,3 9,55
73,8 74,6 75,3 78,2
71,1 71,8 72,5 74,2
49,9 54,1 58,1
50,3
55 59,2
51,0 57,5 60,2
95,0 98,8 103,7

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 1 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,3
2,2
3,3
2,5
2,5
4,0
1,3
2,6
4,3
1,9
1,2
2,4
1,5
4,8
8,2
1,3
4,7
7,7
1,0
3,7
6,5
0,9
1,3
2,8
1,8
2,1
3,9
0,6
2,8
6,3
1,9
3,9
4,7
3,5
4,4
7,6
0,5
1,2
2,6
1,0
1,8
4,6
0,6
1,3
3,2
4,6
8,6
4,8
9,2
6,7
9,6
4,0
9,0

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 4 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,4
2,3
4,3
1,3
1,3
2,6
0,4
1,6
2,9
1,6
1,5
2,1
0,9
1,6
3,2
0,6
2,8
5,9
0,9
2,8
4,6
2,4
3,6
5,7
1,5
1,9
3,0
0,8
1,3
3,8
1,5
1,8
3,5
3,9
4,9
7,4
0,3
0,9
2,1
0,8
1,5
4,4
0,7
1,4
3,1
4,2
8,2
4,7
8,9
6,5
9,2
3,8
8,7

Bng 4.38: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai thch ng vi kch bn B2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]

220

Sng

y
Ninh C
Hng
Tr L
Hng-Thi Bnh Thi Bnh
Vn c
Lch Tray
Kinh Thy
Bch
C
C
V Gia
Thu Bn
Thu Bn
Ba
Ba
Si Gn
ng Nai
ng Nai
Sng Hu
ng bng sng Sng C Chin
Cu Long Sng M Tho
Vm C Ty

H thng sng

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 1 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
24,1 25,4 26,4 28,6
24,9 27,5 27,7 29,7
26,8 28,1 29,5 33,6
27,3 29,0 29,2 30,2
36,0 37,5 41,2 45,0
30,8 32,4 35,9 39,0
25,6 26,6 29,6 32,5
43,2 44,7 45,5 49,4
30,3 32,0 33,2 34,5
37 37,7 39,8 43,8
22,7 24,5 26,5 27,8
20,9 24,9 25,6 30,6
8,36 8,99 9,74 12,55
84,3 85,4 86,3 92,3
78,3 79,1 79,8 83,1
62,5 67,3 71,3
62,8 67,9 72,3
63,1 70,2 73,0
120 124,6 129,3

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 4 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng Thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
19,2 20,7 21,9 23,8
21,3 22,5 22,8 24,5
22,0 22,6 24,0 26,5
21,0 22,7 22,9 23,4
27,5 28,5 29,2 31,3
25,0 25,6 28,2 31,4
19,5 20,5 22,3 24,3
36,0 39,2 40,5 45,5
25,4 27,0 27,6 29,1
29,4 30,5
31 33,4
18,4 19,9 20,2 22,3
18,1 22,5 23,3 27,2
7,45 7,79 8,39 11,14
73,8 74,8 75,4 81,7
71,1 72,0 72,6 75,9
49,9 54,4 58,3
50,3 55,3 59,5
51,0 57,8 60,5
95,0 99,2 104,0

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 1 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,3
2,3
4,5
2,6
2,8
4,8
1,3
2,7
6,8
1,7
1,9
2,9
1,5
5,2
9,0
1,6
5,1
8,2
1,0
4,0
6,9
1,5
2,3
6,2
1,7
2,9
4,2
0,7
2,8
6,8
1,8
3,8
5,1
4,0
4,7
9,7
0,6
1,4
4,2
1,1
2,0
8,0
0,8
1,5
4,8
4,8
8,8
5,1
9,5
7,1
9,9
4,6
9,3

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 4 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,5
2,7
4,6
1,2
1,5
3,2
0,6
2,0
4,5
1,7
1,9
2,4
1,0
1,7
3,8
0,6
3,2
6,4
1,0
2,8
4,8
3,2
4,5
9,5
1,6
2,2
3,7
1,1
1,6
4,0
1,5
1,8
3,9
4,4
5,2
9,1
0,3
0,9
3,7
1,0
1,6
7,9
0,9
1,5
4,8
4,5
8,4
5,0
9,2
6,8
9,5
4,2
9,0

Bng 4.39: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi kch bn A2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]

221

Sng

y
Ninh C
Hng
Tr L
Hng-Thi Bnh Thi Bnh
Vn c
Lch Tray
Kinh Thy
Bch
C
C
V Gia
Thu Bn
Thu Bn
Ba
Ba
Si Gn
ng Nai
ng Nai
Sng Hu
ng bng sng Sng C Chin
Cu Long Sng M Tho
Vm C Ty

H thng sng

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 1 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
24,1 25,4 26,3 27,4
24,9 27,4 27,4 28,9
26,8 28,1 29,4 31,1
27,3 29,2 28,5 29,7
36,0 37,5 40,8 44,2
30,8 32,1 35,5 38,5
25,6 26,6 29,3 32,1
43,2 44,1 44,5 46,0
30,3 32,1 32,4 34,2
37 37,6 39,8 43,3
22,7 24,6 26,6 27,4
20,9 24,4 25,3 28,5
8,36
8,9 9,51 10,99
84,3 85,3 86,1 88,9
78,3 78,9 79,6 81,5
62,5 67,1 71,1
62,8 67,6 72,0
63,1 69,8 72,7
120,0 124,0 129,0

Chiu di xm nhp (km) ca

mn 4 tng ng vi nc bin
dng trong tng Thi k
1980- 2020- 2040- 20801999 2039 2059 2099
19,2 20,6 21,5 23,5
21,3 22,6 22,6 23,9
22,0 22,4 23,6 24,9
21,0 22,6 22,5 23,1
27,5 28,4 29,1 30,7
25,0 25,6 27,8 30,9
19,5 20,4 22,3 24,1
36,0 38,4 39,6 41,7
25,4 26,9 27,3 28,4
29,4 30,2 30,7 33,2
18,4 19,9 20,2 21,9
18,1
22
23 25,5
7,45 7,77
8,3 9,55
73,8 74,6 75,3 78,2
71,1 71,8 72,5 74,2
49,9 54,1 58,1
50,3
55 59,2
51,0 57,5 60,2
95,0 98,8 103,7

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 1 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,3
2,2
3,3
2,5
2,5
4,0
1,3
2,6
4,3
1,9
1,2
2,4
1,5
4,8
8,2
1,3
4,7
7,7
1,0
3,7
6,5
0,9
1,3
2,8
1,8
2,1
3,9
0,6
2,8
6,3
1,9
3,9
4,7
3,5
4,4
7,6
0,5
1,2
2,6
1,0
1,8
4,6
0,6
1,3
3,2
4,6
8,6
4,8
9,2
6,7
9,6
4,0
9,0

Thay i su xm nhp
mn 4 trong tng
thi k (km)
2020- 2040- 20802039 2059 2099
1,4
2,3
4,3
1,3
1,3
2,6
0,4
1,6
2,9
1,6
1,5
2,1
0,9
1,6
3,2
0,6
2,8
5,9
0,9
2,8
4,6
2,4
3,6
5,7
1,5
1,9
3,0
0,8
1,3
3,8
1,5
1,8
3,5
3,9
4,9
7,4
0,3
0,9
2,1
0,8
1,5
4,4
0,7
1,4
3,1
4,2
8,2
4,7
8,9
6,5
9,2
3,8
8,7

Bng 4.40: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai thch ng vi kch bn B2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]

222

Hnh 4.40: S ng tr mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2

ng bng sng Hng - Thi Bnh [19].

223

Hnh 4.41. Ranh gii ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn

B2 v A2 h lu h thng sng ng Nai [19].

224

Hnh 4.42. Ranh gii ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2

v A2 ng bng sng Cu Long [19].

Bng 4.41: Din tch t v s dn b nh hng mn c mn t 1 tr ln

h lu cc h thng sng [19]

Sng Hng - Thi Bnh

H
Kch
thng
bn
sng

Sng ng Nai

Thi k

Tng
din
tch

S dn
trong vng
t cng t thy sn v
t nng chu nh
nghip v thy sn kt hp
nghip hng (106
t
nng nghip
ngi)

Nn 1980 - 1999 316.611

60.357

10.070

144.100

3,426

2020 - 2039 338.510

65.695

10.190

157.700

3,682

2040 - 2059 353.404

68.767

10.280

166.800

3,854

2080 - 2099 378.151

73.462

10.440

181.600

4,130

2020 - 2039 334.834

65.652

10.170

155.400

3,639

2040 - 2059 349.465

68.106

10.260

164.400

3,809

2080 - 2099 373.951

72.639

10.410

179.000

4,081

Nn 1980 - 1999 411.713

90.990

3100,0

190.000

5,701

2020 - 2039 426.612

97.250

3103,0

198.000

6,201

2040 - 2059 447.413 106.200

3151,0

208.400

6,757

2080 - 2099 485.965 118.300

3473,0

321.200

7,410

2020 - 2039 423.361

95.260

3103,0

195.900

6,034

2040 - 2059 442.256 103.600

3103,0

205.600

6,642

2080 - 2099 478.431 115.000

3.410

226.800

7,286

Nn 1985 - 2000 2.068.000 312.300

181.400

759.300

8,415

2010 - 2019 2.194.000 332.200

207.500

825.800

8,941

2020 - 2039 2.323.000 352.600

238.000

889.500

9,485

2040 - 2059 2.524.100 387.700

293.700

987.200

10,395

2010 - 2019 2.153.000 325.300

199.300

801.100

8,760

2020 - 2039 2.243.200 339.200

218.200

849.900

9,151

2040 - 2059 2.426.300 372.600

266.300

939.800

9,949

A2

B2

A2

B2

A2
Sng Cu Long

Din tch t b nh hng ng vi mn >1 (ha)

B2

225

Bng 4.42: Din tch t v s dn b nh hng mn c mn t 4 tr ln

h lu cc h thng sng [19]

Sng Cu Long

Sng ng Nai

Sng Hng - Thi Bnh

H
Kch
thng
bn
sng

226

Din tch t b nh hng ng vi mn >1 (ha)

Thi k

Nn 1980 - 1999
2020 - 2039
A2 2040 - 2059
2080 - 2099
2020 - 2039
B2 2040 - 2059
2080 - 2099
Nn 1980 - 1999
2020 - 2039
A2 2040 - 2059
2080 - 2099
2020 - 2039
B2 2040 - 2059
2080 - 2099
Nn 1985 - 2000
2010 - 2019
A2 2020 - 2039
2040 - 2059
2010 - 2019
B2 2020 - 2039
2040 - 2059

Tng
din
tch
269.806
286.947
289.730
322.245
283.412
295.660
318.908
317.067
325.266
336.762
373.445
322.718
332.484
353.014
1.412.000
1.528.100
1.605.200
1.851.200
1.489.200
1.574.300
1.795.300

S dn
trong vng
t cng t thy sn v
t nng chu nh
nghip v thy sn kt hp
nghip hng (106
t
nng nghip
ngi)
50.347
9.808
113.400
2,873
54.730
9.969
123.900
3,089
55.361
9.188
127.700
3,135
62.185
10.140
146.700
3,488
53.781
9.943
121.700
3,045
56.784
10.020
129.300
3,191
61.480
10.120
146.600
3,450
56.170
2.315
143.600
2,318
59.990
2.315
146.700
2,578
64.620
2.344
152.400
2,968
75.750
2.715
170.600
4,251
58.940
2.315
146.200
2,518
62.960
2.316
150.700
2,852
69.660
2.461
160.600
3,583
215.900
667.940
443.300
5,456
233.900
696.150
509.700
6,089
254.700
729.800
576.300
6,743
282.300
778.400
665.900
7,703
228.400
687.780
487.400
5,860
241.000
705.400
535.000
6,342
275.900
763.200
640.200
7,417

4.6. TC NG CA BIN I CA KH HU N
NHU CU DNG NC
4.6.1. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n nhu cu nc cho
nng nghip
Bin i kh hu s lm cho nhit v theo l bc thot hi
tim nng tng ln, ng thi lng ma trong ma kh gim
trn tt c cc lu vc, dn n nhu cu nc cho ti c xu
th tng ln trn tt c cc lu vc (bng 4.43 - 4.44 v hnh
4.43 - 4.44). lu vc sng ng Nai, nhu cu nc ti tng
nhiu nht, ln n 50% vo cui th k 21 do lng ma tng
khng nhiu (khong 2%) nhng bc thot hi tim nng tng
khong 15%, dn n dng chy trong sng gim trong c hai
ma l v cn.

227

Bng 4.43: Nhu cu nc ti trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi hai kch
bn B2 v A2 trong cc h thng sng [19]
Kch bn
Kch bn
pht
BKH
trin
Nn

Theo din tch ti hin trng

A2

Nn

B2

Nn

Theo din tch ti quy hoch nm 2020

A2

228

Nn

B2

Thi k

Nhu cu ti trong lu vc sng (109m3/nm)

Hng -Thi Bnh

Thu Bn

Ba

ng Nai

1980-1999

9,04 1,156

0,757

0,403

5,90

2020-2039

9,18 1,165

0,915

0,403

7,40

2040-2059

9,43 1,175

0,964

0,430

8,11

2060-2079

9,75 1,184

1,014

0,457

8,98

2080-2099

10,05 1,196

1,057

0,483

10,10

1980-1999

9,04 1,156

0,757

0,403

5,90

2020-2039

9,18 1,165

0,862

0,403

7,01

2040-2059

9,45 1,175

0,908

0,426

7,62

2060-2079

9,70 1,183

0,912

0,444

8,23

2080-2099

9,88 1,194

0,944

0,459

9,01

1980-1999

11,26 1,307

0,795

0,802

5,60

2020-2039

11,59 1,318

0,918

0,846

6,95

2040-2059

11,86 1,329

0,967

0,898

7,63

2060-2079

12,24 1,339

1,021

0,954

8,48

2080-2099

12,59 1,351

1,069

1,006

9,52

1980-1999

11,26 1,307

0,795

0,802

5,60

2020-2039

11,59 1,317

0,877

0,840

6,50

2040-2059

11,88 1,328

0,926

0,890

7,02

2060-2079

12,18 1,337

0,969

0,934

7,65

2080-2099

12,40 1,349

1,005

0,965

8,27

Hnh 4.43: Mc bin i ca nhu cu nc ti trong cc thi k

tng lai ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong cc lu vc sng [19].

229

Bng 4.44: Nhu cu nc ti trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi hai

kch bn B2 v A2 ng bng sng Cu Long [19]

Thi k

Nhu cu nc ti ng vi cc
kch bn (t m3/nm)

Mc bin i ca nhu cu nc
ti (%)

A2

B2

A2

B2

1991-2000

18,94

18,94

2010-2019

19,50

19,36

2,94

2,18

2020-2029

20,44

20,30

7,93

7,17

2030-2039

21,69

21,51

14,50

13,58

2040-2049

22,42

22,33

18,35

17,87

Hnh 4.44: Bin i ca nhu cu nc ti ng bng sng Cu Long [19].

230

4.6.2. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n sn lng thy in

Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n sn lng thy in c
nh gi trn c s cc h cha thy in ln v ang c
xy dng trong cc lu vc sng v da vo tng s quy hoch
in 6 c Chnh ph ph duyt. Trong bng 4.45 a ra mt
s h cha thy in ln trn cc lu vc c a vo tnh ton.
Nh trn nu, di tc ng ca bin i kh hu, dng chy
trong sng s bin i v do dn n sn lng in ca cc
nh my thy in cng s b nh hng (t di y in c
hiu l thy in). Trn lu vc sng Hng - Thi Bnh v sng
C, theo xu th tng ln ca dng chy, lng in pht ra trung
bnh nm tng ln, nhng r nht l trn sng C, tng gn 3%
vo gia th k 21. Cc lu vc sng cn li, in lng trung
bnh nm c xu th gim dn, khong 3% vo gia th k 21 v
gim nhiu nht khng n 6% vo cui th k 21 (bng 4.46,
hnh 4.45). in lng gim trn cc lu vc sng Thu Bn, Ba,
v ng Nai ch yu l do dng chy trong 9 thng ma cn gim
mnh, trong khi , 3 thng ma l cng sut pht khng tng
nhiu (bng 4.47)

231

Bng 4.45: Cc h cha thy in ln v s c xy dng trong cc lu

vc sng
Lu vc sng

H cha thy in

Hng - Thi Bnh

Ha Bnh, Sn La, Lai Chu, Tuyn Quang, Thc B

Bn V, Bn Mng, Thc Mui, Ngn Tri, Khe B

Ba

Sng Ba H, Sng Hinh, Krng HNng, An Kh -Kanak, Auyn H

Thu Bn

A Vng, sng Bung 2, sng Bung 4, k My 4 bc 1 v sng Tranh 2

ng Nai

Tr An, Thc M, Da Nhim, Hm Thun, Cn n, Srock Phu Ming, i Ninh,

ng Nai 2, ng Nai 3, ng Nai 4, ng Nai 5, ng Nai 6

Hnh 4.45: Bin i ca tng cng sut pht in trung bnh trong trn
cc lu vc sng [19].

232

Bng 4.46: Tng cng sut pht in trung bnh nm ca cc nh my thy

in trong cc thi k tng lai thch ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong cc
lu vc sng (MW) [19]
Cng sut pht in qua cc thi
k (MW), Kch bn B2,

Thay i ca cng sut pht in,

N (%)

19801999

20202039

20402059

20802099

19801999

20202039

20402059

20802099

Hng- Thi Bnh

2.586

2.592

2.595

2.600

0,23

0,35

0,54

143

145

147

151

1,40

2,80

5,59

Thu Bn

249,6

241,5

240

237

-3,25

-3,85

-5,05

Ba

211

205

204

200

-2,56

-3,04

-4,94

ng Nai

514

503

500

493

-2,14

-2,72

-4,09

Lu vc sng

Cng sut pht in qua cc thi

k (MW), Kch bn A2,

Thay i ca cng sut pht in,

N (%)

19801999

20202039

20402059

20802099

19801999

20202039

20402059

20802099

Hng- Thi Bnh

2.586

2.594

2.597

2.604

0,31

0,43

0,70

144

146

149

153

1,39

3,47

6,25

Thu Bn

249,6

241,5

240

237

-3,25

-3,85

-5,05

Ba

211

205

204

199

-2,71

-3,18

-5,55

ng Nai

514

502

499

491

-2,33

-2,92

-4,47

Lu vc sng

233

234

ng Nai

Thu Bn

Ba

Hng-Thi Bnh

Lu vc

1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099

1.626
1.628
1.641
1.647
82
84
85
95
208
206
211
214
295
289
292
292
342
333
333
330

1.515
1.407
1.420
1.460
64
65
66
69
140
139
139
139
219
213
212
212
375
368
366
354

1.148
1.006
1.011
1.049
53
54
55
56
120
119
120
120
198
187
187
185
375
362
356
341

1.065
957
952
956
53
53
52
52
109
109
111
110
184
170
169
168
369
346
339
322

1.152
1.132
1.127
1.120
71
65
62
57
113
108
108
105
170
160
158
154
440
416
404
389

3.190
3.162
3.152
3.136
127
119
114
103
131
123
119
104
168
156
152
144
486
469
465
455

3.529
3.624
3.625
3.627
201
205
208
216
143
130
125
115
145
138
135
126
528
502
499
494

3.798
3.897
3.897
3.897
279
289
298
321
200
184
177
158
123
113
108
98
650
639
638
632

4.027
4.136
4.136
4.136
284
289
293
308
253
240
238
220
156
148
145
141
767
767
766
763

Cng sut pht in trung bnh thng ca cc lu vc, kch bn A2

Cng sut pht in trung bnh thng ( MW)
Thi k
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
4.175
4.286
4.287
4.288
237
243
245
254
339
332
330
329
313
303
302
305
780
779
779
776

3.856
3.923
3.940
3.951
152
155
162
172
408
408
409
414
529
531
531
536
685
680
678
676

XI

1.953
1.967
1.974
1.983
111
113
115
131
364
362
361
360
495
490
489
486
370
365
365
364

XII

Bng 4.47: Tng cng sut trung bnh thng ca cc cc nh my thy in trong cc thi k tng lai tng
ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong cc lu vc sng [19]

235

ng Nai

Thu Bn

Ba

Hng-Thi Bnh

Lu vc

1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099
1980-1999
2020-2039
2040-2059
2080-2099

1.626
1.625
1.635
1.645
82
84
86
93
208
206
211
213
295
291
293
293
342
333
333
331

1.515
1.409
1.423
1.447
64
65
67
69
140
139
139
139
219
213
213
213
375
368
367
361

1.148
1.006
1.012
1.035
53
55
55
57
120
119
120
119
198
187
187
186
375
362
360
347

1.065
956
952
954
53
52
51
51
109
109
111
111
184
170
169
167
369
348
339
328

1.152
1.127
1.121
1.118
71
63
57
51
113
108
108
106
170
161
157
154
440
419
407
393

3.190
3.161
3.149
3.132
127
116
107
94
131
124
119
107
168
156
151
146
486
470
466
457

3.529
3.624
3.624
3.626
201
206
209
214
143
131
125
118
145
139
135
129
528
504
500
494

3.798
3.897
3.897
3.897
279
292
302
320
200
185
179
166
123
114
107
101
650
639
638
634

4.027
4.136
4.136
4.136
284
291
296
306
253
241
239
225
156
147
145
141
767
767
766
764

Cng sut pht in trung bnh hng ca cc lu vc, kch bn B2

Cng sut pht in trung bnh thng ( MW)
Thi k
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
4.175
4.284
4.286
4.287
237
245
248
255
339
332
331
329
313
300
300
300
780
779
779
777

3.856
3.919
3.939
3.946
152
156
165
174
408
408
409
411
529
531
531
533
685
680
679
676

XI

1.953
1.963
1.972
1.982
111
114
117
134
364
362
361
360
495
492
490
488
370
365
365
364

XII

Bng 4.47: Tng cng sut trung bnh thng ca cc cc nh my thy in trong cc thi k tng lai tng
ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong cc lu vc sng [19] (tip theo)

CHNG 5:

BIN PHP THCH NG

VI BIN I KH HU
TRONG LNH VC
TI NGUYN NC
VIT NAM

5.1. C S KHOA HC CA XY DNG CHIN

LC NG PH VI BIN I KH HU
TRONG LNH VC TI NGUYN NC
5.1.1.Khi nim
Bin i kh hu , ang v s tc ng n mi trng t
nhin, cc lnh vc kinh t x hi v tt c mi ngi trong cc
quc gia trn Tri t. Cho nn, bin i kh hu l vn kinh
t v chnh tr trng tm ca th k 21.
Bin i kh hu (Climate Change - CC) v dao ng kh hu
(Climate Variability - CV) c coi l mt trong nhng thch
thc ln nht trong tng lai trn ton th gii vi quy m vng
a l v tt c cc ngnh kinh t. Chnh v th, ng ph vi bin
i kh hu l mi quan tm hng u ca nhn loi. V ng
ph vi bin i kh hu c cp trong mt s ti liu.
iu 10 (article) ca Ngh nh th Kyoto UNFCCC, 1997)
ch r nhng bn tham gia cam kt xc tin v to iu kin
cng ngh ng ph vi bin i kh hu. ng ph (Respond)
vi bin i kh hu l cc hot ng ca con ngi nhm thch
ng v gim nh tc ng bt li ca bin i kh hu. Thch
ng (Adaptation) vi bin i kh hu l s iu chnh h thng
t nhin v con ngi nhm gim nhng tc ng bt li ca
kh hu (dao ng kh hu (Climate Variability) v bin i kh
hu (Climate Change) ang v s xy ra i vi kinh t x hi,
mi trng t nhin, tn dng nhng c hi thun li m kh
kh hu c th mang li. Thch ng c ngha l iu chnh hoc
th ng hoc phn ng tch cc, hoc phng trc nhm
lm gim thiu nhng hu qu ca bin i kh hu. Thch ng
238

vi bin i kh hu cn c din ra trong cc h thng t

nhin v kinh t - x hi.
Chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu l mt k hoch hnh
ng, bao gm tp hp cc chnh sch v bin php vi mc tiu
chung l ng ph v gim thiu tnh d b tn thng, gim tc
ng bt li v khai thc tc ng c li ca bin i kh hu.
L mt trong nhng nc trn th gii s chu tc ng nng n
nht ca bin i kh hu v nc bin dng, Vit Nam coi vic
ng ph vi bin i kh hu v nc bin dng l mt nhim v
trng tm hng u pht trin bn vng kinh t x hi.
Mt trong nhng ngnh c th chu tc ng nghim trng ca
bin i kh hu l ti nguyn nc, nht l ti nguyn nc ma
v ti nguyn nc mt (nc ngt) trong cc lu vc sng ln.
Chnh v th, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, quy hoch v qun
l nc cn phi xt n kh nng tc ng ca bin i kh hu
n cc h thng ngun nc. Cn phi c cc phng php, cc
cng c m hnh ha nhng tc ng ca bin i kh hu v
th nghim cc gii php thch ng nhm qun l c hiu qu
cc h thng ngun nc trong iu kin chu tc ng ca bin
i kh hu.
Vn thch ng vi bin i kh hu khng phi l mi m.
Trong lch s, loi ngi tng ng ph vi nhng thay i
ca kh hu, nh p phng chng l, thay i ging v c
cu cy trng, vt nui, lch thi v, p dng cng ngh ti tin
tin tit kim v nng cao hiu qu s dng nc, o ging
ly nc cho n ung v ti rung, chung sng vi l bo
nh p bao, b bao, quy hoch li cc khu dn c cc vng
239

ng bng v ven bin thng xuyn b ngp lt v dng bo, l

qut min ni

5.1.2. Mt s ti liu hin c lin quan n xy dng chin

lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti
nguyn nc Vit Nam
ng ph vi bin i kh hu c nu trong Chng trnh
Mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu nh sau:
Cc nhim v ng ph vi bin i kh hu phi c th
hin trong cc chin lc, chng trnh, quy hoch, k
hoch pht trin ca cc ngnh, cc a phng, c th
ch ha bng cc vn bn quy phm php lut v c qun
trit trong t chc thc hin (im 4, tiu mc Quan im trang 4)
Mc tiu chin lc ca Chng trnh l nh gi c mc
tc ng ca bin i kh hu i vi cc lnh vc, ngnh
v a phng trong tng giai on v xy dng c k
honh hnh ng c tnh kh thi ng ph hiu qu vi
bin i kh hu cho tng giai on ngn hn v di hn
nhm m bo s pht trin bn vng ca t nc, tn
dng cc c hi pht trin theo hng cc-bon thp v tham
gia cng cng ng quc t trong n lc gim nh bin i
kh hu, bo v h thng kh hu tri t (Mc tiu tng qut
- trang 5)
Tch hp vn bin i kh hu vo cc chin lc, quy
hoch, k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi, pht trin ngnh
v a phng (Mc tiu c th - trang 5)
240

 R sot h thng php lut, chnh sch hin hnh, nh gi

mc quan tm n yu t bin i kh hu trong cc vn
bn php lut v chnh sch ca Nh nc. Xy dng, b
sung, hon chnh h thng vn bn qui phm php lut, cc
c ch chnh sch m bo cc c s php l trin khai
cc hot ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu (Nhim v 4 trang 7)
Cc c ch, chnh sch u tin v ng ph vi bin i kh
hu c th hin v lng ghp trong cc chin lc v
chnh sch pht trin KT-XH, phng chng thin tai, s
dng hp l ti nguyn thin nhin v bo v mi trng
ca quc gia (trang 28)
Cc gii php ng ph vi bin i kh hu c cp nh sau:
Trn c s kt qu nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v kh
nng tn thng do bin i kh hu i vi cc lnh vc / ngnh
v a phng, xy dng v la chn cc gii php ng ph vi
bin i kh hu.
Bin i kh hu nh hng mnh ti ti nguyn nc trn mi
phng din. Nhng bin ng ca ti nguyn nc s nh hng
ti cc lnh vc lin quan: lm thay i trong khai thc, s dng
v qun l ti nguyn nc, iu chnh, thay i cc chnh sch,
lut php lin quan n ti nguyn nc...
hn ch ti a nhng tc ng do bin i kh hu v bin
i ca ti nguyn nc gy ra i vi con ngi cng nh i
vi qu trnh pht trin kinh t-x hi Vit Nam, hai hot ng
thch ng v gim nh tc ng ca bin i kh hu cn c
thc hin ng thi.
241

i vi vic gim thiu pht thi kh nh knh trong cc hot

ng lin quan n ti nguyn nc, cn phi hp ng b gia
cc chnh sch v ti nguyn nc v vic thc hin cc hot
ng chng tht thot nc, s dng nc tit kim.
Cc phng n s dng nc tit kim, hiu qu c xut vi
Vit Nam (hnh 5.1) nh sau:
- Gim thiu t l tht thot nc: hin nay, t l tht thot
nc Vit Nam kh cao, trung bnh khong 25%. Vi mc
tiu th nc nm 2006 ti Vit Nam vo khong 60 t m3/
nm, nu bc u gim t l tht thot nc xung 10%
nm 2010 th s tit kim c khong 19 t m3 nc mi
nm, do vy lng pht thi kh nh knh mi nm tnh theo
CO2 tng ng s c gim ng k do gim nng lng
tiu th trong cc trm cp nc v trong cc nh my x l
nc thi;.
- Nghin cu pht trin cc k thut s dng nng lng mt
tri thay cho vic s dng nng lng in un nng nc,
tit kim kh ln lng nng lng in v gas v do
gim c lng pht thi kh nh knh. Ngoi ra, cn cn
nghin cu, s dng nng lng gi, nng lng thy triu;
- S dng nng lng to ra t ngun kh sinh hc: Trong
giai on hin nay, Vit Nam l nc nng nghip, trong
cc kh sinh hc sinh ra t hot ng chn nui gia sc, gia
cm rt phong ph c th dng lm kh t trong cc nh
my x l nc thi. Bn cnh , ngun kh Metan pht ra
t qu trnh x l k kh ti cc nh my x l nc thi c
th c chuyn i thnh ngun nng lng cung cp cho
242

chnh cc nh my gim nng lng tiu th.

- Tit kim nc ti trong nng nghip: Nc dng trong
nng nghip ca Vit Nam vn cn chim t l kh cao (t
70%-85% tng lng nc s dng), bi vy, nu tnh hiu
ch kinh t th li nhun do nc mang li cha cao. Cn
nghin cu cc k thut ti i i vi ci to t gim
thiu lng nc cp cho ti.
- Tng cng ti s dng nc: Cn phi hp vi mc ch
v i tng s dng nc gim thiu lng nc cp, t
gim c nng lng tiu th trong vic cp nc, lm
sch nc v x l nc thi.
Trong qu trnh xy dng Chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh
hu cho lu vc sng hay mt a phng no cn da vo
Chin lc tng th v bin i kh hu v nc bin dng v
Chng trnh hnh ng quc gia v bin i kh hu v nc
bin dng, Khung hng dn xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng
ph vi bin i kh hu cho cc B, Ngnh, a phng ca B
Ti nguyn v Mi trng (nm 2009) v cn c tch hp vi
nh hng chin lc pht trin bn vng, cc chin lc v k
hoch quc gia v pht trin kinh t - x hi, trong c bit
ch ti Chin lc quc gia v phng, chng v gim nh thin
tai; Chin lc pht trin nng lng quc gia; Chin lc quc
gia v ti nguyn nc; Chin lc quc gia v cp nc sch v
v sinh mi trng nng thn v Chin lc Bo v mi trng
quc gia.

243

y mnh tnh ch ng trong

phng chng thin tai v tc
hi do nc gy ra.

- Tng cng, pht trin h thng cnh bo thin tai

- Tng cng, pht trin h thng qun l l
- Hnh thnh cc khu nh c an ton cho nhn dn vng
l
-Ch ng chng hn: Tng cng, pht trin h thng
thy li, tr nc trong ma ma m bo cp nc
trong ma kh

Tng cng cng tc qun l

ti nguyn nc

-Hon thin cc vn bn QPPL v TNN p ng c cc

thay i trong lnh vc TNN
- y mnh pht trin cc cng ngh ha hc hin i
phc v cng tc qun l TNN
- Qun l tng hp TNN theo LVS; ch trng cng tc quy
hoch ti nguyn nc, qun l cht ch cc hot ng
khai thc, s dng nc
- Qun l nc trn quan in nc va l ti nguyn qu
gi, va l vt th kinh t cn s dng hp l, c hiu
qu cao
- Tng cng u t ti chnh cho lnh vc TNN

Thay i hnh thc v quy m

khai thc, s dng nc; hi
ha gia nhu cu s dng, kh
nng khai thc nc v cc li
ch v mi trng

- a dng ha cc hnh thc khai thc, s dng nc

tn dng ti a ngun nc
- Pht trin hnh thc khai thc nc tp trung vi quy
m ln
- Khai thc bn vng cc loi ngun nc s dng nc
tit kim

Gim thiu pht thi KNK

trong cc hot ng lin quan
ti TNN

-Tit kim nc = tit kim nng lng + gim thiu

lng nc thi = Gim thiu pht thi KNK thng qua
cc loi hot ng x l nc thi
- Gim thiu pht thi KNK thng qua tng cng cc
chnh sch v nc (hot ng bo v v qun l TNN)

Thch ng v
gim thiu tc hi
ca BKH trong
lnh vc TNN

Nng cao nhn thc cng ng

v vn BKH v tc ng
ca n n con ngi, n
sc khe cng ng, n ti
nguyn nc v mi trng

Hnh 5.1. Thch ng v gim thiu tc ng ca bin i kh hu

Vit Nam.

244

5.1.3. V chin lc v cc bin php thch ng vi bin i

kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc
Chin lc v cc bin php thch ng vi bin i kh hu l
cn thit gim nh cc tc ng c hi v lm gia tng nhng
tc ng c li do bin i kh hu gy nn. V bn cht, cc h
thng t nhin ni chung v ca chnh con ngi ni ring - trong
qu trnh tin ha ca mnh - cng c nhng kh nng t thch
nghi vi nhng thay i trong iu kin sng vi mi trng xung
quanh. Tuy nhin, kh nng t thch nghi ny c th c pht
huy hoc b hn ch cn ty thuc vo nhiu yu t, c bit l
trong iu kin khoa hc - cng ngh v mc sng pht trin cao
nh hin nay.
IPCC trin khai d n v Bin i kh hu trong cc lu vc
sng i chng - ADAPT, nhm xy dng chin lc thch ng
vi bin i kh hu cho cc lnh vc ti nguyn nc, lng thc
v mi trng. By lu vc sng ln trn th gii c la chn
nghin cu l: M Cng (vng ng Nam chu ), Rhine (Ty
chu u), Sacramento (nc M), Syr Darya (Trung ), Volta
(Ghan), Walawe (Sri Lanka) v Zayandeh (Iran)...
Mc tiu chnh ca D n ADAPT l pht trin phng php lun
xy dng chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho cc lu
vc sng - AMR.
Khung thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho qun l ti nguyn nc
cc lu vc sng gm 5 vn di y: [29]
Xy dng kch bn thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho lu
vc sng, nh v pht trin kinh t x hi, d bo bin i
kh hu v dao ng kh hu trong lu vc sng.
245

 La chn mt b m hnh c kh nng m phng thy vn

v sn xut lng thc trn phm vi lu vc hay ng rung.
nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v dao ng kh hu
n qun l ti nguyn nc bng cch so snh gia kt qu
m phng trong tng lai vi giai on nn vi vic xem xt
v mi trng v an ninh lng thc.
Xc nh cc chin lc thch ng cho cc nh qun l ti
nguyn nc.
nh gi hiu qu ca cc chin lc thch ng.
Khi xy dng chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho
lu vc sng cn lm r 4 vn l: (1) Ai hoc thch ng
ci g? (2) Thch ng cho ci g? (3) Thch ng s xy ra
nh th no? (4). Lm th no thch ng tt? Trong
hnh 5.2 a ra cc thnh phn trong qu trnh xy dng
chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho lu vc sng.
Trc tin cn lm r: Ai thch ng hoc thch ng ci g?
L c nhn hay cng ng, mt vng hay mt quc gia?. Cn
lm r h thng v c im ca h thng. l tnh nhy
cm, tnh d b ri ro, tnh d b mc phi, phm vi i ph,
mc nguy him, kh nng thch ng, tnh n nh, tnh
hi phc, tnh linh hot. Mt s c tnh ca h thng thng
c xem xt l tnh nhy cm, kh nng thch ng v tnh d
b tn thng.
Tip sau l cn xc nh cc yu t kh hu lin quan n h
thng v quan h gia cc yu t ny vi tnh nhy cm ca
h thng. Cc iu kin kh hu ( nh ma, nhit ) c
246

chia ra lm 3 loi bin i theo thi gian: (i) bin i trong

thi k nhiu nm, (ii) bin i gia cc nm hoc gia cc
thp nin, (iii) cc hin tng cc oan ring l.
Nhit v ma l hai yu t kh hu quan trng nht nh
hng n chu trnh thy vn trong phm vi mt lu vc
sng; do chng nh hng n ti nguyn nc. V th,
cn phi d bo lng ma v nhit trong tng lai. Cng
cn lm r s khc bit gia bin i v tn s ca cc hin
tng cc oan vi s bin i t t.
Vn th 3 cp n qu trnh pht trin v thc hin cc
gii php thch ng v hnh thc thch ng. Thch ng d
on trc l thch ng phng nga, c thc hin trc khi
s kin xy ra. Phn ln cc thch ng c iu chnh cho
ph hp vi thc t xy ra trong tng lai.
Cui cng, cn nh gi hiu qu ca cc gii php thch ng.
Phng php lun to ra khung thch ng cho lu vc sng
c xy dng trn nhng c s di y:
Qun l ti nguyn nc trong mt lu vc sng gi vai
tr trung tm trong h thng ti nguyn nc. l qun l
ti nguyn nc trn tng khu vc v ton b lu vc sng;
thc hin cc bin php thch ng nhm i ph vi bin
i kh hu;
H thng ti nguyn nc cung cp hng ha v dch v cho
cng tc qun l nhm t c ti u cc gi tr hin ti
trong mi lin quan n cc mc tiu, chnh sch qun l
nc theo vng;
247

 Hng ha v dch v c biu th nh l cc hm ca h

thng ti nguyn nc, c biu th bi cc thut ng nc
sn c v cht lng nc;
Bin i kh hu c coi nh l mt nh hng ngoi sinh
n h thng ti nguyn nc vng;
Khung thch ng vi bin i kh hu ca lu vc sng
(AMR) cho php nh gi cc chin lc thch ng tim nng
trn c s mt b tiu chun hoc cc ch s c lin quan n
cc mc tiu v cc i tng ca cc chnh sch vng;
AMR cn c s tham gia ca tt c cc h dng nc xc
nh tt c cc ch s c lin quan v t c cc thch ng
tim nng;
AMR u tin xy dng trn cc nh hng.
D kin Chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc
ti nguyn nc cho mt lu vc sng hay mt vng, a phng
s bao gm cc vn chnh sau y:
1) nh gi chung v ti nguyn nc v cc thch thc do bin
i kh hu gy nn;
2) Quan im, nguyn tc ch o v mc tiu ca Chin lc;
3) Nhim v ch yu v cc gii php thch ng vi bin i
kh hu;
4) Phng thc t chc thc hin Chin lc.
Vic xy dng v thc hin Chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh
hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc cn phi c tin hnh tng
bc di hnh thc mt n c th.
248

Thch ng l g?
Thch ng vi ci g?
TC NHN LIN QUAN
N KH HU
Hin tng
Quy m thi gian v khng gian

Cc Yu t v
iu kin phi
kh hu

i tng
cn thch ng ?

Thch ng xy ra
nh th no ?

H THNG
Xc nh h thng
Cc c trng ca
h thng

CC LOI HNH
Cc qu trnh
Cc c im

Lm th no thch ng tt ?
NH GI
Tiu chun
Nguyn l

Hnh 5.2: Cc yu t chnh trong nghin cu chin lc thch ng vi

bin i kh hu [29].

249

Di y l mt vi suy ngh v cc mc tiu ca Chin lc

thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc
ca Vit Nam.
V mc tiu ca Chin lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong
lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam:
Mc tiu tng qut: Mc tiu tng qut ca Chin lc
thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn
nc ca Vit Nam l nng cao kh nng ng ph vi
bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit
Nam trong tng giai on c th nhm bo v v nng
cao cht lng i sng ca ngi dn, thc y v to
iu kin cho s pht trin bn vng ca t nc.
Mc tiu c th:
1) nh gi c mc tc ng ca bin i kh hu trong
lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam;
2) Tng cng cc hot ng khoa hc cng ngh nhm xc
lp cc c s khoa hc v thc tin cho cc gii php ng
ph vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca
Vit Nam;
3) Xy dng v trin khai cc k hoch hnh ng ca cc b/
ngnh v a phng ng ph vi bin i kh hu trong
lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam v trin khai c
cc d n th im;
250

4) Lng ghp cc hot ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu trong

lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam vo cc chin lc,
k hoch, quy hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi ca t nc,
ca cc ngnh v cc a phng;
5) Cng c v tng cng nng lc t chc, th ch, chnh
sch v bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca
Vit Nam;
6) Nng cao trch nhim tham gia ca cng ng v pht trin
ngun nhn lc nhm ng ph c hiu qu i vi nhng
tc ng tiu cc do bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti
nguyn nc ca Vit Nam;
7) Tng cng s hp tc quc t nhm tranh th s gip ,
h tr ca quc t trong ng ph vi bin i kh hu trong
lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam;
8) Tng hp nng cao nhn thc v nhng hiu bit v bin
i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam
nhm nng cao nng lc ng ph vi cc ri ro do bin
i kh hu;
i ti vic xy dng Chin lc v cc bin php thch ng
vi bin i kh hu cn phi thc hin cc cng vic chun
b sau y:
1. nh gi nh lng nhng tc ng ca bin i kh hu
(nh mc nhy cm, kh nng thch nghi v mc d
b tn thng) ca cc h thng t nhin v con ngi do
bin i kh hu gy ra.
251

2. Xc nh cc bin php thch ng, nh gi hiu qu,

phn tch Chi ph - Li ch (Cost - Benefit Analysis) ca
tng bin php thch ng
3. La chn nhng bin php ph hp vi iu kin c th
ca a phng mnh (ca quc gia, ca vng lnh th, ca
ngnh kinh t...)

5.1.4 xut cc bin php thch ng vi bin i kh hu

trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc Vit Nam
1. Thc hin c hiu qu vic qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc
theo lu vc sng trong iu kin xt ti bin i kh hu, c
bit l cc lu vc sng lin quc gia, khi m trng thi dng
chy (k c lng v cht) b ph thuc nhiu vo tnh hnh
pht trin kinh t ca cc quc gia thng lu.
a) Xc tin lp quy hoch lu vc sng, quy hoch pht trin
bn vng ti nguyn nc cc lu vc sng, cc vng trn
c s gn kt vi quy hoch s dng t, quy hoch pht trin
rng, quy hoch pht trin kinh t-x hi ca c nc, vng
v a phng c tnh ti iu kin bin i kh hu.
b) Qun l c hiu qu ti nguyn nc trong iu kin bin i
kh hu: iu ho v phn phi ngun nc trn cc lu vc
sng, bo m phn b, khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc
hp l gia cc ngnh, cc a phng.
2. Cng c, nng cp v xy dng b sung cc cng trnh khai
thc ngun nc trong iu kin bin i kh hu v nc
bin dng, nhm bo m cc nhu cu pht in, cp nc
252

v bo v mi trng sinh thi dng nc, phng chng thin

tai v nc, phc v cho pht trin bn vng kinh t x hi.
a) Cng c, nng cp v hon thin cc h thng cng trnh khai
thc, s dng cc ngun nc (p dng, h cha (thy li
v thy in) h thng knh mng ti tiu, cc cng trnh
khai thc nc ngm (ging o, ging khoan, l khoan, b
cha v h thng dn nc) trong iu kin bin i kh hu
nhm nng cao hiu qu khai thc ti nguyn nc ca cc
cng trnh v bo m vn hnh an ton.
b) Trn c s quy hoch lu vc sng v chin lc, quy hoch
pht trin kinh t x hi, xem xt, iu chnh v xy dng b
sung cc cng trnh thy li, thy in (h cha, p dng)
tng cng iu tit dng chy nhm phng chng l,
cp nc v duy tr mi trng sinh thi cho h du v khai
thc ti nguyn thy in trong iu kin bin i kh hu v
nc bin dng, p ng yu cu pht trin kinh t x hi bn
vng trong lu vc sng/cc a phng (vng kinh t, tnh)
v c nc trong cc giai on tng lai. Ty theo c im
ti nguyn nc, mc tc ng ca bin i kh hu n
ti nguyn nc v kinh t x hi trong tng lu vc sng v
a phng m la chn u tin cc loi cng trnh nh cp
nc v phng chng l. Ch trng pht trin cc cng trnh
khai thc, s dng tng hp, a mc tiu, cc cng trnh cha
nc khu vc Nam Trung B v Ty Nguyn, cc cng
trnh ngn mn gi ngt vng ng bng sng Cu Long.
c) Cng c, nng cp h thng b bao, sng, khu phn chm
l, ng thot l qut, ven bin, b bao chng l v ngn
mn hin c v xy dng cc tuyn mi nhm phng
253

chng v gim nh thit hi do l lt, l qut, dng bo v

nc bin dng, xm nhp mn trong iu kin bin i kh
hu. Xy dng cc cm dn c, nh c th ng ph, thch
nghi vi bo, l, nc bin dng.
d) Nng cao mc bo m an ton cng trnh v tng kh nng
tr nc ca cc h cha hin c: Xem xt li quy phm tnh
ton cc ch tiu thit k cng trnh c tnh ti iu kin bin
i kh hu (c nh hng ti tn sut thit k).
) Tng cng cc bin php b sung nhn to nc di t,
ch trng nhng vng thiu nc. Thc hin vic chuyn
nc mt cch hp l ti cc lu vc sng khan him nc
(c xem xt ti kh nng bin i kh hu trong cc kch bn
khc nhau v li ch ca cc a phng).
e) Nng cp v m rng cc cng trnh tiu ng nhm m bo
tiu thot ng, ngp do l lt v nc bin dng trong iu
kin bin i kh hu v nc bin dng. Trong cn xem
xt li quy phm tnh ton cc ch tiu thit k cng trnh c
tnh ti iu kin bin i kh hu (c nh hng ti tn sut
thit k).
3) Gim thiu tc hi do nc gy ra
a) Hon chnh, nng cp v hin i ha h thng quan trc,
cnh bo, d bo l, lt; xy dng h thng cnh bo l qut,
l bn , trc ht i vi cc vng min ni Bc B, Trung
B c xt n nhng din bin ca bin i kh hu. Vi
tin cy cao v ko di thi gian cnh bo, d bo nhm ch
ng v ng ph c hiu qu vi thin tai v nc.
254

b) Phn vng nguy c ngp lt, nguy c l qut, trt l t, hn

hn, xm nhp mn v nc bin dng trn cc lu vc sng/
cc vng. Ch trng nhng lu vc, nhng vng c nguy c
thin tai cao (nh kh nng l lt, ngp ng, hn hn, nc
bin dng... trong iu kin bin i kh hu s c nguy c
tng cao v tn sut v cng ).
d) Xy dng v thc hin quy hoch phng, chng v gim thiu
tc hi do nc gy ra, quy trnh vn hnh cc cng trnh thy
li, thy in, c bit l cc cng trnh lin h cha khai
thc tng hp ti nguyn nc cho cc lu vc sng ln v
cc sng ven bin Trung B trong iu kin bin i kh hu,
kt hp hi ho gia cc bin php cng trnh v phi cng
trnh nhm bo m an ton cho ngi, gim thit hi n
mc thp nht.
4) Tng cng nghin cu khoa hc v pht trin cng ngh v
iu tra, kho st, quan trc v nh gi ti nguyn nc v
nng lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu
a) nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc
(bao gm s lng, cht lng), ch v nhu cu nc ca
cc ngnh; c bit l i vi cc sng xuyn bin gii nh
sng Hng, sng M Cng, sng C, sng M.
b) y mnh nghin cu khoa hc, k thut, cng ngh v p
dng cng ngh tin tin trong iu tra, kho st, quan trc,
gim st, bo v, phng php nh gi ti nguyn nc (bao
gm cc ch tiu, tiu ch v tiu chun phng php tnh ton
cc c trng thy vn v ti nguyn nc cho quy hoch,
thit k v vn hnh cc cng trnh thy li, thy in).
255

c) Nghin cu, p dng cng ngh tin tin v cnh bo, d bo

kh tng thy vn, c bit l phng php cnh bo, d bo
ma, bo, l lt, l qut, nc bin dng, sng thn. Nghin
cu v p dng phng php qun l tng hp ti nguyn
nc, phng chng v khc phc hu qu ca cc thin tai do
nc gy ra trong iu kin bin i kh hu.
d) Nghin cu v p dng cc phng php tin tin v nh gi
tn thng ca ti nguyn nc do bin i kh hu gy ra.
e) Nghin cu xy dng c s phng php lun, xy dng v
trin khai chin lc ng ph vi bin i kh hu cho cc
lu vc sng/cc vng v c nc.
f) Thit lp h thng c s d liu, thng tin lin quan n qun
l ti nguyn nc v tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti
nguyn nc ca cc cp t Trung ng n cc a phng
(tnh v Ban qun l lu vc sng).
g) Nng cao nng lc thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh
vc ti nguyn nc, bao gm tng cng u t ti chnh,
trang thit b v nhn lc.
5. Hon thin th ch, t chc
a) R sot, b sung h thng php lut, chnh sch hin hnh
ph hp vi tnh trng bin i kh hu. Xy dng, b sung,
hon chnh h thng vn bn quy phm php lut, cc c ch,
chnh sch lin quan n ti nguyn nc nhm m bo cc
c s php lut trin khai cc hot ng thch ng vi bin
i kh hu; trong c bit ch n cc vn bn lin quan
n gi tr kinh t v mi trng ca nc nhm x dng hp
256

l, tit kim v bo v ti nguyn nc; u tin s dng nc

cho sinh hot trong xy dng v vn hnh cc cng trnh khai
thc, s dng nc; cc vn bn php l v c ch phi hp
khai thc, s dng ngun nc ca cc sng xuyn bin gii.
b) Cng c v hon thin t chc qun l ti nguyn nc
Trung ng v cc a phng, c bit l t chc qun l
lu vc sng.
6. Tuyn truyn v truyn thng, nng cao nhn thc cng ng
v ti nguyn nc v bin i kh hu, tc ng ca bin
i kh hu, cc bin php ng ph vi bin i kh hu ni
chung v ti nguyn nc ni ring.

5.2 BIN PHP THCH NG VI BIN I KH HU

I VI TI NGUYN NC TRONG CC H
THNG SNG
Trn c s cc bin php chung nu trn v c bit l nhng c
im ti nguyn nc cng nh tc ng ca bin i kh hu n
ti nguyn nc trong lu vc sng, di y xut mt s bin
php chnh thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong cc h thng sng
chnh nc ta.

5.2.1 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh

hu n ti nguyn nc trong h thng sng Hng Thi Bnh
1) Tip tc pht trin h thng h cha a mc tiu v cc h
cha va v nh khai thc ngun nc v thy in, iu
tit dng chy, c bit l tr nc trong ma ma s
257

dng trong ma kh, gim thiu tc ng tiu cc ca vic

khai thc ngun nc thng lu sng Thao, , L, Gm
trn a phn Trung Quc.
2) Nng cp v xy dng b sung cc cng trnh ngn mn
vng ven bin chng xm nhp mn, to ngun nc ngt
cho cc nhu cu dng nc trong ma cn.
3) Cng c, nng cp h thng sng, bin.
4) Nng cp cc h thng ti, tiu ng.
5) Chuyn i c cu s dng t, cy trng v lch canh tc;
s dng cy trng thch nghi vi khan him ngun nc, chu
ngp ng v chu mn.
6) S dng hp l, c hiu qu v tit kim ngun nc; p dng
k thut ti tit kim nc.
7) Bo v v pht trin rng u ngun, khai thc hp l ti
nguyn t, ti nguyn rng.
8) Xy dng cc cng trnh thu gom, x l cht thi rn v nc
thi cc khu dn c, khu th, khu cng nghip; tng
cng bo v ngun nc.
9) Tng cng qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc theo lu vc
sng.
10) B sung, hon chnh quy trnh vn hnh lin h cha ln a
mc tiu trong h thng sng
11) Hp tc vi Trung Quc trong vic khai thc, s dng v
bo v ti nguyn nc sng Hng.
258

5.2.2 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

n ti nguyn nc trong h thng sng C
1) Xy dng b sung mt s h cha theo quy hoch tng
cng iu tit dng chy, p ng nhu cu nc trong ma
kh v phng chng thin tai l lt. n nm 2020, s xy
dng cc h Bn V, Bn Kok, Nhc Hc, Thc Mui, Ngn
Tri + Cm Trang, Chc A, Kim Cng + Gn, Khe B,
Bn Mng.
Thit lp quy trnh vn hnh lin h cha, c bit cho thi k
ma l m bo an ton cho h lu.
2) Cng c v xy dng b sung cc cng trnh tiu ng ni ng.
Xy dng cng Ro ng tiu ng cho vng ct Nghi Lc,
khu cng nghip bc Vinh, khu vc Vinh v Ca L.
No vt, tu b knh Trp, knh Gai, knh Hong Cm, Knh Vinh,
no vt knh Din Hoa kt hp vic hin i ha cng Din Thy,
Din Thnh; cng c cc trm bm tiu Hng Chu, Hng Li,
Bu Nn; xy dng mi cc trm bm tiu cho khu vc Ro Ny,
hu Thanh Chng v h Hng Sn.
3) Xy dng cng trnh phc v cp nc
a) Cp nc cho cc khu cng nghip
- Xy dng cc cng trnh ly nc trc tip t sng C, Hiu,
Ngn Su, Ngn Ph cung cp nc cho cc cm cng
nghip cc huyn Mng Xn, Tng Dng, Anh Sn,
Con Cung, Qu Chu, Qu Phong, Lng, Hng Sn,
Hng Kh v V Quang.
259

- Xy dng cng trnh ly nc sng C ti Lng cung

cp cho khu cng nghip - th Hong Mai v khu vc dc
Quc l 1 Din Chu n Hong Mai.
- M rng cng Nam n, no vt knh Thp, knh Gai ly
nc sng C qua cng, ng thi xy dng trm bm Cu
Miu cp nc cho khu vc nam sng Cm, Vinh, Ca Hi,
Ca L.
- Xy dng h cha Xun Hoa cp nc cho khu cng nghip
Nghi Xun.
- Xy dng p Cm Trang chuyn nc v h cha Ngn
Tri cp nc cho khu cng nghip Thch Kh.
b) Cp nc cho cc khu ti (nng nghip)
- Vng Hng Nguyn - Nghi Lc: xy dng cc trm bm Th
Sn v Hng ng v mt vi h cha nh; a vo vn
hnh cng Nghi Quang - Bn Thy.
- Vng Din - Yn - Qunh: Kin c ha cc knh chnh ca
h thng Lng, m thm xi phong Hip Ha, cng c h
thng knh ti ni ng.
- Vng Thanh Chng: Xy dng h Thc Mui v mt s h
cha nh trn a bn phc v ti cho khong 27000 ha
t canh tc.
- Vng h lu sng Hiu: Xy dng h Bn Mng phc v
ti cho hn 32.000 ha o t ven sng, khu vc Bi Tp v
sng Dinh, hon chnh h sng So v mt s h cha nh
thng ngun sng Dinh.
260

- Vng h lu sng Ngn Su, Ngn Ph: y l khu vc c

xem l chu nh hng mnh nht bi bin i kh hu. Trong
, mc thiu nc ma cn tng ln r rt. Xy dng h
Tri Di, p Hn, ng Trn v mt s h nh, p trm
bm khc.
4) Hp tc quc t
Tng cng s hp tc vi Lo trong qun l, bo v ti nguyn
nc nhm chia s hp l ngun nc khu vc thng ngun
sng C trn lnh th nc Lo. xut thnh lp y ban quc
t v lu vc sng C.

5.2.3 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

n ti nguyn nc trong h thng sng Thu Bn
1) Pht trin h thng cc h cha
- Tip tc pht trin h thng cc h cha bao gm cc h
cha li dng tng hp v cc h cha p ng mt mc
tiu nht nh.
H thng cc h cha ln a mc tiu, phc v pht in, phng
l, cp nc cho h du, bao gm cc cng trnh thy in Sng
Bung 2, 4; thy in A Vng; Sng Cn 2, Sng Ging; ak Mil
1, 4; Sng Tranh 2.
- Nng cp v xy dng nhng cng trnh mi (h cha v p
dng). Trn ton lu vc sng, cn nng cp 58 cng trnh
phc v ti cho khong 7.669 ha. trong , la 2 v l 4.435
ha v t trng mu + cy cng nghip l 3.234 ha; xy dng
143 cng trnh mi, phc v ti cho 9.088 ha bao gm 7.081
ha la 2 v v 2.070 ha cy cng nghip v mu.
261

2) Nng cp v xy dng mi cc nh my cung cp nc sinh

hot, cng nghip th.
a) Khu vc thnh ph Nng:
- Nng cng sut nh my nc Sn Tr t 8.000 m3/ngy.
m ln 10.000 m3/ngy.m. Ngun cp l sui ti bn o
Sn Tr.
- Nng cp v m rng nh my nc Cu t 50.000 m3/
ngy.m ln 240.000 m3/ngy.m, ly nc t sng Vu
Gia. V tr ly nc cn c chuyn t v tr hin nay
thng lu cu ng St v thng lu p An Trch (trn
sng Yn).
- Xy dng thm nh my nc Xun Thiu cng sut
200.000 m3/ngy.m. Ly nc t sng Cu thng qua h
cha Ha Bc, cp cho pha bc Nng, khu cng nghip
Ha Khch, Lin Chiu v dn c thuc qun Lin Chiu.
H Ha Bc d kin c din tch lu vc 272 km2, dung tch
31 triu m3.
b) Khu vc th Hi An:
- Xy dng cc nh my ly nc sng Vnh in, cng sut
55.000 m3/ngy.m, cp nc cho Hi An, cc khu du lch,
khu cng nghip in Ngc, in Nam.
c) Khu vc nng thn:
- Song song vi vic duy tr cc cng trnh cp nc nh l,
u tin pht trin h thng cp nc tp trung phc v cc
trung tm huyn th c cm dn c tp trung, cc khu cng
nghip, cc x ng bng ven bin.
262

- H thng cp nc cho cc trung tm huyn Ty

Giang, ng Giang, Phc Sn vi quy m cng sut
3.000 m3/ngy.m cho mi huyn, ly nc t sng Bung
v sng Ci.
- H thng cp nc cho th trn huyn i Lc v cc khu
cng nghip nh vi cng sut 10.000 m3/ngy.m, ly
nc t sng Vu Gia
- H thng cp nc cho khu cng nghip An Ha - Nng Sn
vi cng sut 80.000 m3/ngy.m, ly nc t sng Thu
Bn.
- H thng cp nc cho trung tm huyn Tr Mi, Tin Phc,
Hip c vi cng sut 3.000 m3/ngy.m cho mi huyn,
ly nc t sng Tranh, sng Khang.
3) Tng cng nng lc cc cng trnh tiu t chy, gim tc
ng ngp lt
gii quyt tnh trng ngp ng trong thi k ma l vng
h lu sng Vu Gia - Thu Bn, vic tng nng lc cho cc cng
trnh tiu thot nc ra bin ti ca Hn v ca i c vai tr ht
sc quan trng. Cn c c im a hnh, a mo khu vc h
lu c chia thnh hai b phn:
- B phn gia Vu Gia - Thu Bn c gii hn bi sng Vu
Gia pha Bc, sng Qung Hu pha Ty, sng Thu Bn
pha Nam v sng Vnh Din pha ng. Din tch t nhin
ca b phn ny l 16.058 ha, bao gm cc x Ha Chu,
Ha Tin, Ha Xun, Ha Phc ca huyn Ha Vang; cc
x in An, in Phc, in Th, in Hng, in Tin,
263

in Ha, in Thng ca huyn in Bn; cc x i Ha,

th trn i Ngha ca huyn i Lc.
Gii php chnh l tiu t chy ra cc sng nh sng Yn, sng La
Th, sng Thanh Qut, sng Thu Bn v sng Vnh in trn c
s nng cp cc knh mng v cng tiu hin c, c bit l cc
cng nm di ng giao thng.
- B phn pha ng sng Vnh in chy t sng Hn n
Hi An, bao gm qun Ng Hnh Sn, x in Ngc, in
Dng, in Nam, in Phng, in Minh, th trn Vnh
in ca huyn in Bn v th x Hi An.
Gii php tiu cng l hnh thc t chy ra sng Vnh in pha
Ty, sng Hi An pha Nam, sng H Xu, sng Cu Bin
pha ng.
4) Qun l, bo v rng hin c
Trng rng trn phm vi t trng i trc, nng che ph hin
ti 33% ln n 50% trong phm vi 10 - 15 nm. Kin quyt
ngn chn tnh trng t, ph khai thc ba bi, c bit khu vc
thng ngun thuc a phn tnh Qung Nam, Kon Tum.
5) Mt s bin php khc
- Xy dng cc p ngn mn ca sng, nh ca sng Hn,
ca i.
- Thit lp quy trnh vn hnh lin h cha thy in trn h
thng sng p ng nhu cu v s dng nc v phng chng
l thng v h lu.
264

- Xy dng cc nh trnh l cho dn c trn cc khu vc b nh

hng l nghim trng Qung Nam.

5.2.4. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

n ti nguyn nc trong h thng sng Ba
1) Khai thc tng hp bc thang thy in sng Ba chng
l v cp nc cho h du, pht in, kt hp vi quy hoch
dn c, khu cng nghip. Nhm mc tiu , trc ht cn r
sot quy hoch xy dng cc cng trnh pht trin ti nguyn
nc trong h thng sng trn quan im quy hoch tng hp
lu vc sng, bo m cc cng trnh c xy dng phc v
a mc ch, song song vi mc tiu pht in phi bo m
cp nc cho ma cn v phng l cho h du.
Ngoi p ng Cam c t nm 1932, trn lu vc sng hin c
cc cng trnh ln v ang xy dng l h Ayun H, sng Hinh,
sng Ba H, Krng Hnng, An Kh - Kanak ngoi ra cn hng
lot p dng, h cha nc nh nm ri rc trn cc lu vc sng
nhnh khc.
Cn phi c quy trnh phi hp gia cc cng trnh trong qu trnh
vn hnh, bo m s chia s, phn b ngun nc hp l, hi ha
gia cc li ch pht huy n mc cao nht hiu qu cng trnh
cng nh vic khai thc ti nguyn nc sng, ng thi bo v
mi trng lu vc sng.
2) Bo v v pht trin rng
Bo v v pht trin rng u ngun, xy dng v thc hin quy
hoch s dng t (bo gm t sn xut v t rng), bo v t,
chng xi mn.
265

Vic bo v v pht trin rng u ngun phi c tin hnh

ng thi trn bn lu vc b phn l vng thng ngun An
Kh, sng Ayun, sng Krong Hnng v sng Hinh. c bit thn
trng trong cng tc quy hoch thay i hnh thc s dng t v
c cu cy rng, ng thi kim tra, gim st cht ch vic thc
hin quy hoch trn thc a.
3) Thay i c cu cy trng, ma v, vt nui thch ng vi
bin i kh hu.
4) S dng nc hp l, c hiu qu v tit kim.
5) Duy tr dng chy mi trng trn cc on sng:
Trong cc hot ng khai thc, s dng nc, vic bo m duy
tr dng chy mi trng trn cc on sng l mt yu cu c
tnh cht bt buc, c bit cc khu vc h lu cc p thy in,
khu vc h lu p ng Cam n ca sng, nht thit khng tn
ti nhng on sng cht trong ma cn. y l gii php rt quan
trng nhm ngn chn v phc hi tng bc tnh trng suy thoi,
cn kit ngun nc v duy tr h sinh thi thy sinh, trc ht
trong giai on ma cn, ng thi ngn chn s xm nhp su
ca thy triu v nc mn khu vc ca sng.
6) Song song vi vic bo v, pht trin rng u ngun (thuc
phm vi cc tnh Kon Tum, Gia Lai, cn thit phi pht huy
tc dng ct l ca cc h thy li - thy in cho h du bng
quy trnh vn hnh lin h hp l chng l trn c s ca
vic d bo kh tng thy vn trn lu vc sng. Xy dng
bao bo v thnh ph Tuy Ha. B sung, hon thin cc
quy trnh vn hnh lin h cha c xt n tc ng ca bin
266

i kh hu v vic khai thc s dng ngun nc ca cc a

phng trong lu vc.
7) Vic no vt lung lch, chng bi lp trong ma cn h
lu sng t sau p ng Cam, c bit vng ca sng
phi c tin hnh thng xuyn hng nm, to iu kin
cho vic thot l.

5.2.5. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

n ti nguyn nc trong h thng sng ng Nai
1) Nhanh chng hon thnh quy hoch tng hp lu vc sng
nhm thit lp c ch mang tnh cht php l trong vic phn
phi, chia s ngun nc cho cc ngnh, s dng hiu qu
v bo v ti nguyn nc lu vc sng. Hot ng ny c
xem l thun li trn lu vc sng ng Nai, bi v hu nh
ton b lu vc nm trn lnh th Vit Nam. Do , vic khai
thc, s dng nc hu nh khng b ph thuc bi s hp
tc vi nc ngoi.
2) Tip tc xy dng v hon chnh h thng cc h cha (thy
li v h cha ca cc nh my thy in) theo quy hoch,
lm nhim v chng l cho h du, tch nc cho ma cn v
gp phn y mn khu vc h lu trong ma cn. Xy dng
c ch chia s ngun nc hp l, v y l lu vc c s
chuyn nc ra ngoi lu vc nhiu nht.
3) Tng cng nng lc cp nc p ng nhu cu dng
nc gia tng
Xy dng thm cc nh my cp nc, ly nc trc tip t dng
chnh sng ng Nai song song vi vic cng c, nng cp cc
267

nh my cp nc hin c nh Bn Than, Th Du mt, Ha An,

Bnh An.
Pht trin cc cng ti tiu, cc trm bm nc, ch yu thng
ngun Vm C ng, nh trm bm Gc i, Ha Hi, Bn Si,
Tr C, Bn inh.Nng cp cc h thng ti tiu
4) Xy dng thm cc tuyn ngn triu - mn
Tin hnh xy dng thm ti huyn Cn Gi v khu vc ca sng
Nh B cng vi vic cng c h thng hin c ti huyn Nh B.
5) Chuyn i c cu cy trng, vt nui, lch canh tc thch
ng vi tnh trng khan him nc trong ma kh. p dng
k thut ti tin tin nhm tit kim nc, s dng nc
hp l, c hiu qu v tit kim.
6) Tng cng cc bin php bo v cht lng nc
c bit, ti cc tnh vi s pht trin cng nghip mnh m nh
Bnh Dng, thnh ph H Ch Minh, ng Nai, chng nhim
ngun nc t cc ngun thi cng nghip v sinh hot, bo m
cc ngun nc thi phi c x l t tiu chun trc khi
vo ngun tip nhn. Thng xuyn tin hnh kim tra cc c s
sn xut c ngun nc thi, x pht nghim vi nhng trng
hp c tnh vi phm quy nh v x thi vo ngun nc.

5.2.6. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

n ti nguyn nc ng bng sng Cu Long
1) Hon thin v cng c nhng cng trnh trong quy hoch l
BSCL c ph duyt, ch yu l cc cng trnh phc
268

v trnh l hoc gp phn lm tng tc tiu thot l nh

xy dng, hon thin cc khu dn c vt l, mt s bao
thuc a bn tnh An Giang, ng Thp v Long An; khi
thng v m rng cc knh thot nc ra bin Ty (vnh Thi
Lan) v ra sng Tin.
2) Quy hoch v tng bc xy dng cc tuyn bin dc b
bin ng v bin Ty nhm ngn chn s xm nhp ca
nc bin trong iu kin nc bin dng cao.
3) Xy dng cc cng ngn mn nhng ni c chng t l
c hiu qu.
4) Trn c s quy hoch s dng t trong iu kin chu nh
hng ca nc bin dng chuyn i c cu cy trng,
vt nui, ma v.
Khu vc hon ton khng b nh hng triu mn: a vo c
cu cy trng vt nui nhng loi khng c nhu cu nc cao.
Thc hin cng ngh ti tit kim.
Khu vc mi b nh hng triu - mn: Phn b hp l phm
vi dnh cho cy trng trt v thy sn. Pht trin cc loi cy
trng, vt nui c kh nng thch ng vi nc l v nc
mn. Ch bo v v pht trin cc khu rng ngp mn
vng ca sng ven bin (Bn Tre, Hu Giang, C Mau..)
5) S dng cc bin php tch tr nc ngt
Dng cc bin php tch tr nc ma trong ma ma theo quy
m gia nh di hnh thc cc b cha hoc cc loi chum vi
phc v cho ma kh. Bin php ny c bit hiu qu i vi
269

vng ven bin (Bn Tre, Bc Liu, Sc Trng, C Mau) chu nh

hng ca thy triu, ni m ngun nc sng trong ma kh cn c bit hn ch do b nh hng ca xm nhp mn.
6) Tng cng cc bin php bo v mi trng chng nhim
ngun nc, trong phi thng xuyn tin hnh cng tc
kim tra hot ng x l v x nc thi sn xut ca cc
khu cng nghip v c s sn xut vo ngun nc; thc hin
cc bin php x l nghim minh i vi cc c s x thi
nhim ngun nc.
7) Thc y cc hot ng trong y hi M Cng Quc t v ti
nguyn nc, tp trung nhng vn sau:
Chia s ngun nc trong ma kit gia cc quc gia thnh vin
thng v h lu sng;
Khng thc hin cc d n dn nc sng M Cng cho cc lu
vc khc.

270

Ti liu tham kho

1. B ti nguyn v Mi trng (2008). Chng trnh mc tiu

quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu. H Ni.
2. B ti nguyn v Mi trng(2009). Kch bn bin i kh hu,
nc bin dng cho Vit Nam. H Ni.
3. B ti nguyn v Mi trng.(2009): D n Vit Nam:
Chun b thng bo quc gia ln th hai cho UNFCCC.
Bo co nh gi chin lc v cc bin php ng ph vi
bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc Vit Nam.
H Ni.
4. B Ti nguyn v Mi trng (2010): Bo co tng hp nh
hng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc ca Vit Nam,
H Ni.
5. B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn. Khung chng trnh
hnh ng thch ng vi bin i kh hu ca ngnh Nng
nghip v PTNT giai on 2008-2020. 2008
6. Bi Hc v nnk. nh gi tnh bn vng ca vic khai thc
s dng ti nguyn nc ngm lnh th Vit Nam, nh hng
chin lc khai thc s dng hp l v bo v ti nguyn
nc ngm n nm 2020. Bo co tng kt ti nghin
cu khoa hc cp Nh nc, m s 01-LNN. 2005.
273

7. Chng trnh nghin cu khoa hc cp Nh nc, m s

KC12 (1995). Cn bng, bo v v s dng c hiu qu
ngun nc quc gia. Bo co tng kt. H Ni.
8. Chng trnh tin b khoa hc cp Nh nc 42A (1989).
Tp s liu kh tng thy vn. H Ni.
9. Cng ha x hi ch ngha Vit Nam (2007). Chin lc
Quc gia phng chng v gim nh thin tai. H Ni.
10. L Bc Hunh v nnk (2010). Bo co chuyn Nhng
vn trong khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc trn 7 lu
vc sng ln Vit Nam di tc ng ca bin i kh hu
v nh hng gii php thch ng. thuc D n nh gi
tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc v cc bin
php thch ng. H Ni.
11. Trung tm T vn Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, Vin
KH KTTV&MT. nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln
ti nguyn nc v cc bin php thch ng - Lu vc sng
Hng - Thi Bnh. 2010
12. Trung tm T vn Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, Vin
KH KTTV&MT. nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln
ti nguyn nc v cc bin php thch ng - Lu vc sng
ng Nai. 2010
13. Trung tm NC Thy vn & TNN, Vin KH KTTV&MT.
nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc
v cc bin php thch ng - Lu vc sng C. 2010
274

14. Trung tm NC Thy vn & TNN, Vin KH KTTV&MT.

nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc
v cc bin php thch ng - Lu vc sng Thu Bn. 2010
15. Trung tm NC Thy vn & TNN, Vin KH KTTV&MT.
nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc
v cc bin php thch ng - Lu vc sng Ba. 2010
16. Trung tm NC Thy vn & TNN, Vin KH KTTV&MT. nh
gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc v cc
bin php thch ng - ng bng sng Cu Long. 2010.
17. Trung tm thng tin - kinh t ti nguyn nc thuc Cc
Qun l ti nguyn nc (2009). Bo co tng hp nhim v
Thng k, iu tra, thu thp b sung thng tin d liu cc h
cha c dung tch t 500.000 m3 tr ln trn ton quc thuc
d n Xy dng quy trnh v tng cng nng lc cp php
khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc cho thy in. H Ni.
18. Vin Kh tng Thy vn (1985). c trng hnh thi lu
vc sng Vit Nam. H Ni.
19. Vin Khoa hc kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng (2010).
Bo co tng kt D n Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln
ti nguyn nc v bin php thch ng. H Ni.
20. Vin Khoa hc Thy li min Nam, Nghin cu xm nhp
mn phc v pht trin KTXH ca BBDSCL, 2004
275

21. Vin Quy hoch thy li Min Nam (2010). Bo co Quy

hoch tng th thy li ng bng sng Cu long trong iu
kin bin i kh hu - nc bin dng.
22. Trn Thanh Xun.(2008). c im thy vn v ti nguyn
nc Vit Nam. Nxb, Nng nghip. H Ni..
23. Trn Thanh Xun (2009). Phn tch c im ti nguyn
nc mt, ti nguyn nc ngm v s dng nc trong 7
lu vc h thng sng Vit Nam . Bo co chuyn ca
D nTc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc v
cc bin php thch ng. H Ni
24. Trn Thanh Xun (2009). Bo co chuyn Ni dung v
phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti
nguyn nc, s dng v cn bng nc ca D n Tc
ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc v cc bin
php thch ng. H Ni.
25. Trn Thanh Xun (2010). Bo co chuyn nh gi s
b ti nguyn nc ma. ti nghin cu khoa hc ca
B Ti nguyn v Mi trng Nghin cu c s khoa hc
v thc tin xc nh ni dung, phng php tnh, tng hp,
thng k cc ch tiu ti nguyn nc . H Ni.
26. Trn Thanh Xun (2010). Bo co chuyn nh gi s
b ti nguyn nc mt. ti nghin cu khoa hc ca
B Ti nguyn v Mi trng Nghin cu c s khoa hc
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v thc tin xc nh ni dung, phng php tnh, tng hp,

thng k cc ch tiu ti nguyn nc . H Ni.
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change in the countries of the Lower Mekong Basin: regional
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279

Mc Lc

Danh mc vit tt ........................................................................2

Li ni u....................................................................................5
Chng I: Ti nguyn nc ma...............................................7
1.1. Phn b ca lng ma nm trong lnh th...........................8

1.2. Tng lng ma nm....................................................12

1.3. Phn phi ma trong nm.............................................14

1.3.1. Thi gian xut hin ma ma, ma kh...........14

1.3.2. T s phn phi lng ma trong nm............16

Chng II: Ti nguyn nc mt.............................................23

2.1. Mng li sng sui ............................................................24
2.2. Phn b ca dng chy nm trong lnh th..........................25
2.3. Tng lng dng chy nm..................................................30
2.4. Phn phi dng chy trong nm............................................32
2.5. Cht lng nc sng...........................................................42

2.5.1. Dng chy ct bn . ...................................................43

2.5.2. Ha hc nc sng.....................................................44

2.5.3.Tnh hnh nhim ngun nc mt............................45

281

2.6. H cha, h v m ph.......................................................55

2.6.1. H cha......................................................................55

2.6.2. H cha......................................................................59

Chng III: Ti nguyn nc di t...................................61

3.1. Tr lng nc di t.......................................................62
3.2. Cht lng nc di t ....................................................66
Chng IV: Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ...........................75

n ti nguyn nc
4.1. Tng quan v bin i kh hu v . ......................................76

tc ng ca n n ti nguyn nc

4.1.1. Khi qut v bin i kh hu ...................................76

4.1.2. Khoa hc v bin i kh hu.....................................78

4.1.3. Bin i kh hu trn th gii, . .................................88

khu vc Chu v Vit Nam

4.2. Kch bn bin i kh hu ..................................................116

4.2.1. C s xy dng kch bn bin i kh hu...............116

v nc bin dng trn th gii

4.2.2. Kch bn bn i kh hu nc bin dng . .............124

cho Vit Nam.

4.3. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc yu t ...................135

nhit khng kh, bc thot hi tim nng

v ma trong cc h thng sng
282

4.3.1. Phng php tnh lng ma v bc thot .............135

hi tim nng tng ng vi cc kch bn bin i
kh hu trong cc thi k tng lai.

4.3.1.1. Phng php tnh lng ma thng............135

trung bnh cc thi k trong tng lai

4.3.1.2. Tnh lng ma ngy..................................140

4.3.1.3. Tnh bc thot hi tim nng......................142

4.3.2. S bin i trong tng lai ca cc yu t...............143

kh tng chnh trong cc h thng sng

4.3.2.1 S bin i ca nhit khng kh . ..........144

trong cc h thng sng

4.3.2.2. Bc thot hi tim nng..............................145

4.3.2.3. S bin i ca lng ma trong ...............150

tng lai

4.4. Bin i kh hu v nc bin dng...................................159

4.5: Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc...........162

4.5.1. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................163

dng chy nm

4.5.2. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................172

dng chy ma l

4.5.3.Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . .........................177

lu lng nh l

4.5.4. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................182

dng chy ma cn
283

4.5.5. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................189

l lt, ngp lt

4.5.6. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................214

xm nhp mn

4.6. Tc ng ca bin i ca kh hu n . ............................225

nhu cu dng nc

4.6.1. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n...........................225

nhu cu nc cho nng nghip

4.6.2. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu n . ........................229

sn lng thy in

Chng V: Bin php thch ng vi bin i ......................235

kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn

nc Vit Nam
5.1. C s khoa hc ca xy dng chin lc ..........................236

ng ph vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc

ti nguyn nc

5.1.1.Khi nim .................................................................236

5.1.2. Mt s ti liu hin c lin quan n ......................238

xy dng chin lc thch ng vi bin i
kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc
Vit Nam

5.1.3. V chin lc v cc bin php thch ng ..............243

vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc

5.1.4 xut cc bin php thch ng vi . ......................250

bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn
nc Vit Nam

284

5.2. Bin php thch ng vi bin i kh hu i . ..................255

vi ti nguyn nc trong cc h thng sng

5.2.1 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ....................255

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc trong
h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh

5.2.2 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ....................257

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc trong
h thng sng C

5.2.3 Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ....................259

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc trong
h thng sng Thu Bn

5.2.4. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ...................263

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc trong
h thng sng Ba

5.2.5. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ...................265

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc trong
h thng sng ng Nai

5.2.6. Bin php thch ng vi tc ng ca . ...................267

bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc ng
bng sng Cu Long.

Ti liu tham kho . ............................................................. 271

Mc lc .............................................................................. 279
Danh sch bng .......................................................................285
Danh sch hnh nh.................................................................293

285

Danh sch bng

Bng 1.1: Lng ma nm trung bnh giai on........12

1977 - 2008 trong cc h thng sng (trn phn
lu vc trong lnh th Vit Nam) [25]
Bng 1.2: Lng ma trung bnh thi k quan trc ti........17
mt s trm kh tng [25]
Bng 1.3 c trng phn phi ma trong nm trong cc........19
h thng sng [25]
Bng 2.1: Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh giai........33
on 1977 - 2008 ca cc h thng sng trong
lnh th Vit Nam [26]
Bng 2.2: Lu lng trung bnh thi k quan trc ti mt........34
s trm thy vn trn mt s sng [26]
Bng 2.3: c trng phn phi dng chy trong nm [26]........35
Bng 2.4: Hm lng ct bn l lng trung bnh thi k........46
quan trc [22]
Bng 2.5: S lng h cha , ang v s c xy........58
dng c dung tch t 0,5 triu m3 tr ln trong
cc h thng sng [17]
Bng 3.1: Tr lng nc di t trong lnh th Vit........64
Nam [6]
Bng 3.2: Tr lng nc nht di t trong cc thnh to........65
cha nc tnh n nm 1993 c nh gi.
287

Bng 3.3: Cht lng nc ngm cc vng lnh th Vit........73

Nam [6]
Bng 4.1: D bo mc gia tng trung bnh ton cu ca........92
nhit khng kh v mc nc bin theo cc
kch bn bin i kh hu khc nhau (Ngun:
IPCC 2007)
Bng 4.2: Tm tt tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti......102
nguyn nc quan trc c trong vng
ng Nam [27]
Bng 4.3: Kh nng tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc......106
lnh vc ng Nam [27]
Bng 4.4: Khi qut c im ca bn kch bn trong......121
Bo co cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh SRES: ( trn c s ca Nakiocenovic v Swarr,
2000) [28]
Bng 4.5: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi......126
giai on 1980 - 1999 theo kch bn pht thi
thp (B1) [2]
Bng 4.6: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi......127
giai on 1980 - 1999 theo kch bn pht thi
trung bnh (B2) [2]
Bng 4.7: Mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (0C) so vi......128
giai on 1980 - 1999 theo kch bn pht thi
cao (A2 ) [2]
Bng 4.8: Mc bin i ca lng ma nm (%) so vi......129
giai on 1980 - 1999 theo kch bn pht thi
thp (B1) [2]
288

Bng 4.9: Mc thay i lng ma (%) so vi giai on......130

1980-1999 theo kch bn pht thi trung bnh
(B2 ) [2]
Bng 4.10: Mc thay i lng ma nm (%) so vi giai......131
on 1980 - 1999 theo kch bn pht thi cao
(A2) [2]
Bng 4.11: Mc nc bin dng (cm) so vi giai on......132
1980 - 1999 [2]
Bng 4.12: Mc bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng vo......149
hai thi k 2040-2059 v 2080-2099 tng
ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 so vi thi k
nn 1980-1999 trong cc h thng sng
Bng 4.13: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma trong......151
tng lai so vi thi k nn trong cc h thng
sng chnh Vit Nam
Bng 4.14: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma cc......157
qu trong tng lai so vi thi k nn tng
ng vi kch bn B2 trong cc h thng sng
chnh Vit Nam
Bng 4.15: Mc bin i trung bnh ca lng ma cc......158
qu trong tng lai so vi thi k nn tng
ng vi kch bn A2 trong cc h thng sng
chnh Vit Nam
Bng 4.16: Mc nc bin dng (cm) so vi thi k......160
1980-1999 [19]
Bng 4.17: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti......166
mt s trm thy vn so vi thi k 19801999, kch bn B2 [19]
289

Bng 4.18: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti......167

mt s trm thy vn so vi thi k 19801999, kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.19: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh nm ti mt......168
s trm thy vn trn sng M Cng so vi thi
k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin i kh
hu v pht trin khai thc s dng nc [37]
Bng 4.20: Bin i dng chy trung bnh ma l ti mt......173
s trm thy vn trn cc sng ng vi kch
bn B2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]
Bng 4.21: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh ma l ti......174
mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng so vi thi
k 1980-1999 ng vi kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.22: Bin i ca lu lng trung bnh ma l ti......175
mt s trm thy vn trn sng M Cng so
vi thi k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin
i kh hu v pht trin khai thc s dng
nc [37]
Bng 4.23: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi......178
tn sut 1% v 5% ti mt s trm thy vn
trn cc sng theo kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.24: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi......179
tn sut 1% v 5% ti mt s trm thy vn
trn cc sng theo kch bn B2 [19]
Bng 4.25: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti......184
mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch
bn A2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]
290

Bng 4.26: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti......185

mt s trm thy vn trn cc sng theo kch
bn B2 so vi thi k 1980-1999 [19]
Bng 4.27: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn ti......183
mt s trm thy vn trn sng M Cng so
vi thi k 1985-2000 theo cc kch bn bin
i kh hu v pht trin khai thc s dng
nc [37]
Bng 4.28: Mc nc cao nht ti mt s v tr trn h......190
thng sng Hng -Thi Bnh v sng C ca
con l lch s c s tham gia iu tit ca h
thng h cha [19]
Bng 4.29: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp......194
lt h lu h thng sng Thu Bn vi dng
trn l nm1999 c xt n iu tit l cc h
cha, kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.30: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp......196
lt h lu h thng sng Thu Bn vi dng
trn l nm 1999 v xt n iu tit l cc h
cha theo kch bn B2 [19]
Bng 4.31: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt......198
h lu h thng sng Ba vi dng trn l
nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
trong theo kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.32: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt......200
h lu h thng sng Ba vi dng trn l
nm 1993 v xt n iu tit l cc h cha
theo kch bn B2 [19]
291

Bng 4.33: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt......202

h lu h thng sng ng Nai vi dng
trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h
cha theo kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.34: Din tch v s dn b nh hng bi ngp lt......204
h lu h thng sng ng Nai vi dng
trn l nm 2000 v xt n iu tit l cc h
cha theo kch bn B2 [19]
Bng 4.35: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca......208
trn l ln ng bng sng Cu Long tng
ng vi kch bn A2 [19]
Bng 4.36: Din tch v s dn nh hng ngp lt ca......210
trn l ln ng bng sng Cu Long tng
ng vi kch bn B2 [19]
Bng 4.37: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4......216
trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi kch
bn A2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]
Bng 4.38: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4......217
trong cc thi k tng lai thch ng vi kch
bn B2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]
Bng 4.39: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4......218
trong cc thi k tng lai tng ng vi
kch bn A2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]
Bng 4.40: Chiu di xm nhp ca mn 1 v 4......219
trong cc thi k tng lai thch ng vi kch
bn B2 h lu cc h thng sng [19]
292

Bng 4.41: Din tch t v s dn b nh hng mn c......223

mn t 1 tr ln h lu cc h thng
sng [19]
Bng 4.42: Din tch t v s dn b nh hng mn c......224
mn t 4 tr ln h lu cc h thng
sng [19]
Bng 4.43: Nhu cu nc ti trong cc thi k tng lai......226
tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 trong
cc h thng sng [19]
Bng 4.44: Nhu cu nc ti trong cc thi k tng lai......228
tng ng vi hai kch bn B2 v A2 ng
bng sng Cu Long [19]
Bng 4.45: Cc h cha thy in ln v s c xy......230
dng trong cc lu vc sng
Bng 4.46: Tng cng sut pht in trung bnh nm ca......231
cc nh my thy in trong cc thi k tng
lai thch ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong
cc lu vc sng (MW) [19]
Bng 4.47: Tng cng sut trung bnh thng ca cc cc......232
nh my thy in trong cc thi k tng lai
tng ng vi hai kch bn A2 v B2 trong
cc lu vc sng [19]

293

Danh sch hnh nh

Hnh 1-1a:ng tch ly chun sai lng ma nm ti........10

mt s trm kh tng
Hnh 1-1b:ng tch ly chun sai lng ma nm ti........10
mt s trm kh tng
Hnh 1.2: S ng ng tr lng ma nm trung........11
bnh giai on 1977-2008 trong lnh th
Vit Nam [25]
Hnh 1.3: Phn b ca lng ma nm trung bnh thi k........13
1977-2008 ca cc h thng sng trong lnh
th Vit Nam
Hnh 1.4: T l % tng lng ma nm trung bnh giai........13
on 1977-2008 ca cc h thng sng so vi
ton b lnh th Vit Nam
Hnh 1.5a: Lng ma thng trong nm ti mt trm kh........20
tng [25]
Hnh 1.5b:Lng ma thng trong nm ti mt trm kh........21
tng [25]
Hnh 2.1: Cc h thng sng v sng c lp trn lnh........26
th Vit Nam [22]
Hnh 2.2. S ng ng tr m un dng chy nm........27
trung bnh thi k 1977 - 2008 trong lnh th
Vit Nam [26]
295

Hnh 2.3a. ng qu trnh tch ly chun sai dng chy........28

trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thu vn trn
cc sng ln
Hnh 2.3b. ng qu trnh tch ly chun sai dng chy........28
trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thu vn trn
cc sng va
Hnh 2.3c. ng qu trnh tch ly chun sai dng chy........28
trung bnh nm ti mt s trm thu vn trn
cc sng va
Hnh 2.4: Phn b ca tng lng dng chy nm trung........31
bnh thi k 1977 2008 gia cc h thng
sng trong lnh th Vit Nam
Hnh 2.5: T l % tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh........31
giai on 1977-2008 ca cc h thng sng so
vi c nc
Hnh 2.6a: Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong........36
nm mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng
ln [26]
Hnh 2.6b: Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong........37
nm ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng
va [26]
Hnh 2.6c: Phn phi lu lng trung bnh thng trong........38
nm ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt sng
va [26]
Hnh 2.7a: Biu hm lng ct bn l lng trung bnh........47
thng trong nm ti mt s trm thy vn [26]
296

Hnh 2.7b: Biu hm lng ct bn l lng trung bnh........48

thng trong nm ti mt s trm thy vn [26]
Hnh 2.8: X nc thi vo sng.................................... ........50
Hnh 3.1: Phn b tr lng khai thc tim nng nc........63
di t trong cc vng
Hnh 3.2: T l % tr lng khai thc tim nng nc........63
di t trong cc vng so vi c nc
Hnh 4.1: Hiu ng nh knh (Ngun: The National........79
Academy of Sciences, USA)
Hnh 4.2: T l thi kh nh knh t cc hot ng ca........83
con ngi theo tng ngnh, lnh vc nm
2004 (Ngun: Olivier v nnk, 2005-2006)
Hnh 4.3: Bin i ca nhit b mt Tri t theo........83
thi gian (Ngun: IPCC, 2007)
Hnh 4.4: Xu hng bin i mt s kh nh knh n........84
1/2003 (Ngun: IPCC, 2007)
Hnh 4.5: Bin i mc nc bin theo thi gian........86
(Ngun: IPCC, 2007)
Hnh 4.6: D bo bin i nng mt s kh gy hiu........88
ng nh knh n nm 2100 (Ngun: IPCC,
2007)
Hnh 4.7: D bo s thay i nhit Tri t n nm........90
2100 (Ngun: IPCC, 2007)
Hnh 4.8: Bin i ca lng ma nm trong vng ng........91
Nam (1901 - 2005)
Hnh 4.9: Bin i ca lng ma nm trong vng ng......100
Nam (1901 - 2005)
297

Hnh 4.10.a:Bin trnh ca nhit v cc vng ca......109

Vit Nam trong 50 nm
Hnh 4.10.b:Bin trnh ca lng ma cc vng ca......110
Vit Nam trong 50 nm
Hnh 4.11: Qu o ca bo Ty Bc Thi Bnh Dng......111
v Bin ng
Hnh 4.12: Din bin ca mc nc bin ti trm hi vn......113
Hn Du
Hnh 4.13: S biu th 4 kch bn gc v pht thi kh......118
nh knh. Ngun: IPCC
Hnh 4.14: Lng pht thi CO2 tng ng trong th......120
k 21 ca cc kch bn. Ngun: IPCC
Hnh 4.15: Cc kch bn bin i kh hu quy m ton......122
cu ca AR4/IPCC
Hnh 4.16: Sn phm m phng nhit ca m hnh......122
MRI - AGCM cho khu vc Vit Nam
Hnh 4.17: Din bin chun sai lng ma ca Vit Nam......123
Hnh 4.18: Min tnh v sn phm m phng nhit ......124
trung bnh nm (OC), lng ma nm (mm)
ca m hnh PRECIS cho khu vc Vit Nam
vo cui th k 21
Hnh 4.19: Phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 v......125
phng php chi tit ha thng k
Hnh 4.20: Kch bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam v......125
cc khu vc nh hn
298

Hnh 4.21:Bin i ca nhit khng kh trung bnh......145

nm tng ng kch bn A2, B2 trong cc h
thng sng
Hnh 4.22:Bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng trung......146
bnh nm so vi thi k 1980-1999 trong cc
h thng sng tng ng vi hai kch bn B2
v A2 (%)
Hnh 4.23: Bin i ca bc thot hi tim nng theo cc......147
ma (%) so vi thi k nn 1980-1999 tng
ng vi kch bn B2
Hnh 4.24: S bin i ca lng ma nm trong tng......152
lai tng ng vi hai kch bn bin i kh hu
B2 v A2 ti mt s trm kh tng trong cc
lu vc sng
Hnh 4.25: S bin i ca lng ma ma ma trong......153
tng lai tng ng vi hai kch bn bin i
kh hu B2 v A2 ti mt s trm kh tng
trong cc lu vc sng
Hnh 4.26: S phn vng mc bin i ca lng......154
ma ma kh tng ng vi kch bn B2 vo
thi k 2040-2059 trn phm vi c nc
Hnh 4.27: S bin i ca lng ma ma kh trong......155
tng lai tng ng vi hai kch bn bin i
kh hu B2 v A2 ti mt s trm kh tng
trong cc lu vc sng.
Hnh 4.28: Qu trnh thy triu ti mt s v tr ca sng......161
ng vi cc mc nc bin dng khc nhau [19]
299

Hnh 4.29: S khi nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu......164

ln ti nguyn nc [19]
Hnh 4.30: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh nm ti mt......169
s trm thy vn trn mt s sng so vi thi k
1980-1999, kch bn B2, A2 [19]
Hnh 4.31: Bin i ca cc thnh phn cn bng nc......171
t nhin ca mt s lu vc, ng vi kch
bn B2 [19]
Hnh 4.32: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma......171
l (%) ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc
sng so vi thi k 1980-1999, kch bn A2,
B2 [19]
Hnh 4.33: Bin i ca lu lng nh l (Qmax) ng vi......180
tn sut 1% ti mt s trm thy vn trn cc
sng so vi thi k 1980-1999 theo hai kch
bn B2 v A2 [19]
Hnh 4.34: Bin i ca lu lng ngy ln nht (%) ca......181
sng M Cng ti Kratie so vi trn l nm
2000 [19]
Hnh 4.35: Bin i ca dng chy trung bnh ma cn......186
ti mt s trm thy vn trn mt s sng
theo hai kch bn A2 v B2 vi thi k 19801999 [19]
Hnh 4.36: Tng hp s bin i ca dng chy trung......188
bnh nm v cc ma ti mt s trm thy
vn i din trn mt s sng vo gia th
k 21 [19]
300

Hnh 4.37: Bin i ca din tch ngp lt h lu mt......193

s lu vc sng khi xy ra cc trn l ln, ng
vi kch bn B2 [19]
Hnh 4.38: Bin i ca din tch ngp lt BSCL khi......207
xy ra cc trn l ln ng vi kch bn B2 [19]
Hnh 4.39: Bn ngp lt ng vi cc kch bn bin......212
i kh hu v nc bin dng v cc kch
bn bin i kh hu A2 v B2 h lu cc
h thng sng Thu Bn, Ba v ng Nai v
BSCL [19]
Hnh 4.40: S ng tr mn 1 v 4 trong cc......220
thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2 ng
bng sng Hng - Thi Bnh [19]
Hnh 4.41: Ranh gii ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc......221
thi k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2 v A2
h lu h thng sng ng Nai [19]
Hnh 4.42: Ranh gii ca mn 1 v 4 trong cc thi......222
k tng lai ng vi kch bn B2 v A2 ng
bng sng Cu Long [19]
Hnh 4.43: Mc bin i ca nhu cu nc ti trong cc......227
thi k tng lai ng vi hai kch bn A2 v
B2 trong cc lu vc sng [19]
Hnh 4.44: Bin i ca nhu cu nc ti ng bng......228
sng Cu Long [19]
Hnh 4.45: Bin i ca tng cng sut pht in trung......230
bnh trong trn cc lu vc sng [19]
301

TS. Phm Vn Din

Chu trch nhim ni dung:

Quang Hng

Chu trch nhim xut bn:

Thit k:

Hs. Phm Trung Hiu

211162B00

NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THUT

70 Trn Hng o, H Ni
In 1000 cun, kh 14,5 20,5 cm, ti X nghip in ng Bc.
S ng k k hoch xut bn 149-2011/CXB/384-11/KHKT, do
Cc xut bn cp ngy 14/02/2011.
Quyt nh xut bn s 101/QXB-NXBKHKT, cp ngy 20
thng 05 nm 2011.
In xong v np lu chiu qu II nm 2011.