I HC QUC GIA THNH PH H CH MINH HCMC

TRNG I HC KINH T - LUT

KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH -----------------------------

DIN BIN CA TH TRNG GAS VIT NAM V CHNH SCH CAN THIP CA CHNH PH

Ngi hng dn: Ths. Trn Thanh Trng Ngi thc hin: Trng Nht Duy - K114071093 Trn Nht t - K114071096 Nguyn Cng L - K114071134

Lp K11407A Nm hc: 2011 2012

LI M U

CHNG I L LUN CHUNG V CUNG CU GAS Khi nim cung: Cung l biu th s lng hng ha hay dch v m ngi bn mun bn nhng mc gi trn th trng trong mt khong thi gian nht nh. Khi nim cu: Cu biu th nhng s lng hng ha hay dch v m ngi mua mun mua v c kh nng mua theo nhng mc gi trn th trng trong nhng khong thi gian nht nh. Nh vy, trn th trng gi v sn lng gas mc cn bng l trng thi khi ngun cung ca n p ng c nhu cu v n trong mt khon thi gian nht nh. Vi cch nh ngha ny, gii thch din bin ca gi gas trn th rng Vit Nam l vic i tm tnh cht cung cu ca n. Ngoi ra gi gas th trng nc ta cn b chi phi bi nhiu yu t khc nh: thu, gi cc mt hng khc Xt v kha cnh cung, th trng Vit Nam ang b chi phi bi mt s cng ty kinh doanh. Ch yu gm cc cng ty sau: Petrolimex, Petro VN gas, Saigon Petro, Gia nh gas, VT gas, Elf gas, Shell gas, BP trong Petro VN gas, Petrolimexchim th phn kh ln. Hin ti ngun cung cp g cho th trng Vit Nam gm 2 ngun. Mt ngun n t lng gas sn xut c trong nc ti nh my Dung Qut v Dinh C vi sn lng khong 640 nghn tn (chim 48%), ngun cn li l gas nhp khu (52%). Chnh v cn hn 50% sn lng gas ph thuc vo ngun cung bn ngoi nn nhng bin ng gi trn th trng th gii s tc ng khng nh ti gi gas Vit Nam. th cung ca th trng gas nc ta biu hin trn th l ng c dc ln t tri qua phi, ngha l gi tng th lng cung cng tng theo.

 th biu din hm cung

Xt v kha cnh cu: Cng vi s pht trin ca x hi, nhu cu s dng gas ngy cng tng c trong nc v th gii. Biu din ng cu trn th l ng dc tng i ln. Vi ng cu nh vy d thy khi gi thay i s ko theo s thay i rt ln ti gi cn bng.

th biu din hm cu

Kt hp th cung cu:

Vi kh nng chi phi th trng ca mnh, cc cng ty kinh doanh gas Vit Nam c th hnh ng nh mt nhm c quyn cng nhau thu tm th trng thu li nhun v pha mnh. iu ny s gy kh khn ln ti ngi tiu dng. Cung v cu ca mt hng ny cn b chi phi bi nhiu yu t khc nh s iu tit ca chnh ph, nh hng ca hin tng gi ko theo

CHNG II PHN TCH CHNH SCH CAN THIP VO GI XNG DU CA CHNH PH VIT NAM TRONG 3 THNG U NM 2012 I. Nhng nguyn nhn dn n s bin i gi gas trn th trng Vit Nam: Ch trong vng 3 thng u nm 2012 gi bn gas c nhng thay i chng mt. Mt phn nguyn nhn ca tnh hnh ny l do nc ta phi s dng 52% gas nhp khu trong bi cnh gi gas th gii tng cao. iu ny hon ton ph hp vi quy lut cung cu, khi ngun cung th trng khan him s dn n gi b y ln t mc gi cn bng. Ngoi ra, gi xng du ang tng cao cng ko theo h ly l nhiu mt hng ng lot tng gi bi l xng du l mt hng cn thit cho mi hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh, giao thng vn tiV trong cc mt hng tng gi theo d nhin gas cng gp phn. Mt khc c giai on nh nc nh thu nhp khu gas t 2% ri ln 5% cng nh hng khng nh ti gi gas trn th trng. Bn cnh gi gas sn xut trong nc khng chu thu nhp khu, chi ph vn chuyn, bo him t hn hn so vi nhp khu nhng li c tnh theo gi ca gas nhp khu. y chnh l mt vn bt cp m chnh ph cn gii quyt. Cng vi nhng nguyn nhn trn, vic th phn th trng gas Vit Nam qu tp trung trong tay cc cng ty kinh doanh (PV Gas 80%) nh hng xu ti gi gas. Cc cng ty ny c th c nhng cch khc nhau iu khin th trng v mang li li nhun cho h. II. Nhng bin i v gi gas Vit Nam 3 thng u nm 2012: Theo c tnh ca B Cng Thng nhu cu tiu th gas ca Vit Nam s tng v dao ng rong khong 6-7% so vi 2011. - 1/1/2012, Saigon Petro tng gi bn l gas thm 24000/bnh 12kg. Gi gas lc ny t ti mc 375000/bnh 12kg. L do c a ra l do gi gas trn th trng th gii thng 01/2012 tng thm 85USD/tn so vi gi bn ca thng cui cng trong nm c ln mc 880USD/tn.

- Ngy 5/1/2012 gi gas li tng thm 8000/bnh 12kg v a gi gas t mc mi l 383000/bnh 12kg. L do tng gi l do chnh ph nng gi thu nhp khu gas t 2% ln 5% (p dng t 1/1/2012). - Thng 2/2012 gi gas li tng thm 42000/bnh 12kg. Nguyn nhn l do gi gas th gii tng thm 145USD/tn v a gi t mc 1025USD/tn. Nh vy ch trong vng cha y 2 thng gi gas th trng tng thm 74000/bnh 12kg do cc yu t cung v thu ca nh nc. - 1/3/2012, gi bn l gas cc hng tng ng lot 52000-53000/bnh 12kg do gi gas trn th gii giao trong thng 3/2012 leo ln mc 1205USD/tn tc l tng 180USD/tn so vi thng trc. Trc tnh hnh gi gas leo thang bt u t 2/3 B Ti chnh gim thu nhp khu gas t 5% xung cn 0% v yu cu cc cng ty phi h gi bn, nu khng s b x l theo qui nh ca php lut. - Ngy 3/3/2012, gi gas Saigon Petro gim 16000/bnh 12kg. Nh vy gi bn l gas lc ny l 461000/bnh 12kg. - Ngy 10/3/2012, gi bn l gas ca Saigon petro gim 10000/bnh 12kg . Gi gas lc ny l 451000/bnh 12kg. L do m cng ty ny a ra l mun chia s mt phn kh khn vi ngi tiu dng v gp phn bnh n gi. Nhng c th thc cht vic gim gi l kch cu tiu dng v c mt b phn khch hng chuyn sang dng bp in, bp than gim bt chi ph. Nh vy t 1/1/2012 n 10/3/2012 gi gas 4 ln iu chnh tng v 2 ln iu chnh gim. Tng mc tng qua cc ln l 100.000/bnh 12kg.

Gi 12/2011: 351000/bnh 12kg. Ngy 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 02/2012 1/3/2012 3/3/2012 10/3/2012 Mc tng / gim 24000 8000 42000 52000 -16000 -10000 Gi mi 375000 383000 425000 477000 461000 451000

Bng biu hin s bin i gi gas 3 thng u 2012

Gi gas
600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 375000 383000 Gi gas 425000 477000 461000 451000

Biu th hin s bin ng gi gas III. Tc ng ca gi gas ti nn kinh t Vit Nam: Vit Nam phi nhp khu 52% sn phn gas, d nhin s gia tng gi gas trn th trng th gii cng ko theo s tng gi lin tc ca gi gas ti Vit Nam. Theo l thuyt s gia tng mnh v gi gas c th to ra gnh nng khng nh i vi nn kinh t. - Th nht, gi gas tng lm mc sng ngi dn xung di mc l ra h c nhn do tng tiu dng cho sn phm gas tng ln tng i so vi mc thu nhp. S d nh

th v gas l mt hng thit yu nn gi gas tng ln ngi tiu dng buc vn phi s dng (c mt b phn nh chuyn sang dng ngun nng lng khc xong khng ng k). Do vy ngi tiu dng c t thu nhp hn dng chi tiu cho cc hng ha khc. - Th 2 gas thuc mt hng bnh n gi nn vic tng gi gas s rt kh cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c th qun l c. IV. Nhng chnh sch can thip ca chnh ph: 1. Cc chnh sch chnh ph thc hin Trc tnh hnh gi gas bin ng mnh, chnh ph c nhng iu chnh kim sot tnh hnh: - nh thu nhp khu gas t 2% ln 5% nhm gim nhp khu gas v kch thch tiu dng gas ni a v tit kim ti nguyn. - Gim thu t 5% xung cn 0% gim chi ph nhp khu gas, gp vn lm gim ba bn gas bnh n th trng. Bn cnh ci c ca chnh sch ny nh nc cng phi chu mt khon thm ht ngn sch. ng thi to c hi cho gas nhp khu chim u th trn th trng. - D gas nm trong danh mc qun l gi ca Nh nc, nhng vic tng, gim gi gas hon ton do cc cng ty t quyt nh. iu ny to cho th trng c s cnh ranh xong cng l c hi cc cng ty gas lm lon gi. 2. Nhng hn ch cn c khc phc: - Trn th gii vic mt cng ty chim khong 30% th phn c vn , xong ti Vit Nam PV gas gn nh chim c quyn vi khon 80% th phn. Theo mt s doanh nghip kinh doanh gas cho rng mc d vic u gi gas sn xut trong nc c thc hin cng khai nhng thc cht ch c 150000 tn gas ca nh my Dung Qut v 200000 tn gas ca nh my dinh C c em ra u gi cng khai, phn cn li u tin phn phi cho cc n v thuc tp on du kh Quc gia Vit Nam vi l do m bo lng tiu th n nh. Tuy nhiien gn y cc n v trng thu a s thuc PV Gas, cha k hin nay PV Gas ang dn u v nhp khu gas, cc doanh nghip khc phi mua li hng t PV Gas. D thy PV gas gn nh nm c quyn trong tay. Phi chng l do s lng lo trong cng tc qun l ca nh nc.

- Gi gas tng v lng nhp khu gim: T u thng 1 khi gi gas th gii tng cc cng ty gas trong nc cng rt rch tng gi theo. Nhng trn thc t vo thi im t thng 1-3 gas nhp khu theo mc gi mi cha th v Vit Nam. Doanh nghip ch yu bn lng hng tn kho khi doanh nghip nhanh chng nhp v khi gi thp. Thc t khi gi tng doanh nghip gim nhp khu. Theo tng cc hi quan, trong 2/2012 khi gi CIF ( bao gm cc vn chuyn v bo him) nhp khu gas v cng Vit Nam l 1078USD/tn. Cc cng ty ch nhp 19000 tn du gim 73,3% so vi thi im thng 1 gi CIF gas nhp khu v Vit Nam l 927USD/tn. Nh vy nu doanh nghip trong thng th 2 bn lng hng ca thng 1 nhp v th s li t nht 42000/bnh 12kg nh chnh lch gi nhp khu gia hai thi im. - Gi gas sn xut trong nc li phi bn ra theo gi th gii . Nh vy khon cc vn chuyn t nc ngoi v Vit Nam, bo himcao hn gn 100USD/tn so vi gas trong nc li khng c tr vo gi bn gim gi cho ngi tiu dng m li chy vo ti ca cc cng ty. R rng gas ni a chim gn 50% th trng, cung vi thu chnh ph hon ton c th iu tit c th trng. Vic gi gas ni a theo gi th gii nh hin nay theo cc chuyn gia ch mang li li ch cho doanh nghip m khng gp phn bnh n gi th trng gas. Qua phn tch trn c th nhn thy cc doanh nghip ang mua r v bn t. Vy ti sao cc cng ty li cho rng doanh thu ca mnh khng tng. V th nh nc cn gim st cht ch vn ny. 3. Cc bin php cn trin khai kim sot tnh trng bin ng gi. - Gii php lm gim ph thuc vo ngun cung th gii: + y nhanh tin xy dng cc c s sn xut. + Nghin cu KH-KT v p dng vo trong sn xut. + Tit kim ti a ti nguyn. - Gii php s dng hng ha thay th - gim cu: + Chuyn sang s dng cc ngun nng lng khc nh in, than

V. Kt lun: Qua din bin ca th trng gas ta thy, vi c ch th trng nn kinh t c nhiu bin ng nh hin nay gp phn l nhn t tc ng n gi c ca cc ngnh, cc lnh vc quang trng trong c c nguyn nhin liu v kh t-gas. Th trng gas ca Vit Nam s khng trnh khi nhng bt cp v gi c, gi c s do th trng iu tit, gi gas ch c th bnh n khi gi du trn th gii bnh n. Tuy nhin ng trc nhng th thch khc nghit i hi cc c quan lnh o chc nng cn phi c nhng chin lc v mc tiu c trong ngn hn v trong di hn, ch tng gi bn khi tht s cn thit nhm bnh n gi c th trng. Nhm mc ch to iu kin cho ngi tiu dng tha mn nhu cu dng gas ca mnh mt cch tt nht v tha mi nht, p ng nhu cu ngy cng cao cao mt nn kinh t m nh hin nay.