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TRNG I HC KINH T V QUN TR KINH DOANH PHNG THC HNH KINH DOANH

Trn Cng Nghip

GIO TRNH TIN HC NG DNG


(Bn tho)

NH XUT BN MY IN CANON BN THI NGUYN 2008

Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

MC LC
MC LC .................................................................................................................................. 1 CHNG 1 MT S KIN THC TIN HC CN BN ..................................................... 3 1.CN BN V WNDOWS.................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Khi ng v thot khi windows................................................................................ 3 1.2 Windows Explorer ........................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Tp tin (file).................................................................................................................. 6 1.4 Th mc (Folder hay Directory) .................................................................................. 6 1.5 i tn file, i tn th mc......................................................................................... 6 1.6 Sao chp (copy) tp tin hay th mc. ........................................................................... 7 1.7. Di chuyn th mc, file ............................................................................................... 7 1.8 Xa th mc, tp tin ..................................................................................................... 7 1.8 Phc hi th mc hay tp tin b xa. ............................................................................ 8 1.9 Qun l a .................................................................................................................... 8 1.10. Thit lp cch biu din ngy gi, s v tin t ........................................................ 9 1.11. Chy chng trnh trong Windows............................................................................ 9 2. CN BN V EXCEL .................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Gii thiu.................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Worksheet, workbook, a ch .................................................................................... 14 2.3 Cc dng d liu trong Excel ..................................................................................... 17 2.4 Cc php tnh trong Excel .......................................................................................... 18 2.5 S dng hm trong Excel ........................................................................................... 19 2.6. Cng thc mng ....................................................................................................... 27 BI TP CHNG 1.............................................................................................................. 29 CHNG 2 GII BI TON TI U.................................................................................. 35 1. C S L THUYT CA BI TON TI U............................................................ 35 1.1. Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh (linear programming) ............................................... 35 1.2. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn (nonlinear programming)........................................... 40 2. QUY TRNH GII BI TON TI U TRONG EXCEL............................................ 40 2.1 M t bi ton............................................................................................................. 40 2.2 Cc bc tin hnh gii bi ton ti u trong Excel .................................................. 41 2.3 ngha cc la chn ca Solver ................................................................................ 48 2.4 Mt s thng bo li thng gp ca Solver.............................................................. 49 2.5 Phn tch nhy ca bi ton ................................................................................... 50 3. GII H PHNG TRNH TUYN TNH ................................................................... 52 BI TP CHNG 2.............................................................................................................. 53 CHNG 3: QUN L TI CHNH..................................................................................... 57 1.KHU HAO TI SN C NH.................................................................................... 57 1.1.Khi nim v ti sn c nh v khu hao ti sn c nh.......................................... 57 1.2.Cc phng php tnh khu hao ti sn c nh......................................................... 57 1.3.Cc hm tnh khu hao ti sn c nh ....................................................................... 60 2. PHN TCH HIU QU VN U T ....................................................................... 64 2.1 Dng tin .................................................................................................................... 64 2.2 Cc ch tiu ch yu nh gi hiu qu d n u t ................................................. 70 2.3 Cc hm nh gi hiu qu d n u t trong Excel ................................................ 72 2.4. Cc ch tiu khc ....................................................................................................... 76 3. u t chng khon ......................................................................................................... 77 3.1 Tnh li gp cho mt tri phiu tr vo ngy ti hn.................................................. 77 3.2 Tnh li gp ca mt chng khon tr theo nh k................................................... 78

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3.3 Tnh t sut chit khu ca mt chng khon............................................................. 79 3.4 Tnh li sut ca mt chng khon c u t ht................................................... 79 3.5.Tnh s tin thu c vo ngy ti hn ca mt chng khon c u t ht......... 80 BI TP CHNG 3.......................................................................................................... 80 CHNG 4: PHN TCH HI QUY TNG QUAN V D BO KINH T ................. 83 1. HI QUY V TNG QUAN ....................................................................................... 83 1.1. Phn tch tng quan ................................................................................................. 83 2. HI QUY TUYN TNH N....................................................................................... 89 2.1. C bn v hi quy tuyn tnh n ............................................................................. 89 3. HI QUY TUYN TNH BI......................................................................................... 91 3.1 C bn v hi quy tuyn tnh bi ............................................................................... 91 3.2 Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy bi ........................................................ 92 3.3 Khong tin cy v kim nh gi thuyt ca m hnh hi quy bi............................. 93 4. HI QUY PHI TUYN.................................................................................................... 93 5. QUY TRNH PHN TCH HI QUY TRONG EXCEL ................................................ 93 5.1 Phn tch hi quy n trong Excel ............................................................................ 94 5.2 Phn tch hi quy bi trong Excel .............................................................................. 98 5.3 Phn tch hi quy phi tuyn trong Excel .................................................................. 100 6. D BO KINH T........................................................................................................ 101 6.1 D bo bng phng php hi quy tng quan ....................................................... 102 6.2 D bo nhanh s dng cc hm ca Excel ............................................................... 103 6.3.D bo bng cc phng php ngoi suy thng k.................................................. 104 BI TP CHNG 4........................................................................................................ 108 CHNG 5: PHN TCH D LIU THNG K .............................................................. 111 1.CC THAM S C BN CA MU THC NGHIM ............................................. 111 1.1 Mt s tham s c bn c trng cho mu thc nghim.......................................... 111 1.2 Cc tham s c trng cho hnh dng phn b ca mu .......................................... 113 1.3 Cc hm tnh ton cc tham s c trng cho phn b thc nghim ....................... 113 2. BIU PHN B THC NGHIM ........................................................................ 114 3. CNG C THNG K M T ................................................................................... 117 4. PHN TCH PHNG SAI.......................................................................................... 118 4.1 M hnh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t.............................................................. 118 4.2 M hnh phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc .................................... 119 4.3 M hnh phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc .......................................... 121 5. QUY TRNH PHN TCH PHNG SAI TRONG EXCEL ...................................... 122 5.1 Phn tch phng sai mt nhn t trong Excel......................................................... 122 5.2 Phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc trong Excel ............................... 123 5.3 Phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc trong Excel ..................................... 125 BI TP CHNG 5........................................................................................................ 127

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CHNG 1 MT S KIN THC TIN HC CN BN

1.CN BN V WNDOWS

Windows l h iu hnh s dng giao din ha v l sn phm ca tp on Microsoft. Cc phin bn gn y ca windows l h iu hnh a nhim v a ngi s dng. Gn 80% cc my tnh c nhn (PC) trn th gii s dng h iu hnh windows v tnh thn thin, d s dng ca h iu hnh ny. Windows c chc nng iu khin phn cng ca my tnh; to mi trng cho cc ng dng khc hot ng; qun l vic lu tr thng tin trn a; cung cp kh nng kt ni gia cc my tnh. Cho n thi im hin ti, tp on Micrrosoft cho xut xng nhiu phin bn windows nh windows 95, windows 98, windows ME, windows NT, windows 2000, windows XP, windows 2003, v gn y nht l windows Vista. Trong phm vi gio trnh ny, chng ti trnh by mt s nt cn bn v windows XP. 1.1 Khi ng v thot khi windows khi ng windows XP, nhn vo nt POWER trn my tnh v ch windows hon tt qu trnh khi ng. Sau khi windows XP khi ng xong s c giao din nh hnh 1.1

Hnh 1. 1 Mn hnh windows XP sau khi khi ng xong.

thot khi windows (tt my) cn phi thot ht cc ng dng v thao tc theo trnh t sau: Chn START / TURN OFF COMPUTER.Hp thoi Turn Off Computer hin ra nh hnh

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) 1.2. Ty chn Stand By tm dng hot ng ca my v chuyn sang ch ch. Khi ngi s dng tc ng vo bn phm hoc con chut th my hot ng tr li. Ty chn Turn off: Tt hon ton my tnh. Ty chn Restart: Khi ng li my tnh

Hnh 1. 2 Hp thoi Turn Off Computer

T menu Start, nu chn Log Off s thot khi Windows thit lp li mi trng nhng khng tt my. Hnh 1.3 minh ha try chn Log Off.

Hnh 1. 3 Mn hnh Log Off Windows

La chn Switch User trong hnh1.3 cho php ng nhp h thng vi tn khc. Ngoi ra, trn mt s my tnh c h tr chc nng Hibernate (ng ng). Khi s dng chc nng ny, cc chng trnh ng dng ang chy s c ng bng tm thi v my tnh tt. Khi khi ng li, my tr v ng trng thi nh trc khi thc hin Hibernate. thc hin, nhn phm Shift trn bn phm, lc ny nt Stand by bin thnh nt Hibernate, bm chut vo nt ny thc hin lnh. 1.2 Windows Explorer Windows Explorer l cng c qun l tp tin (File), th mc (Folder), v cc a (Driver) trn my tnh. S dng Windows Explorer, ngi s dng c th sao chp (copy), di chuyn (move), i tn (rename), v tm kim cc tp tin hay cc th mc. C th truy cp Windows Explorer t Desk top bng cch kch chut phi vo My Computer, chn Explore nh hnh 1.4

Hnh 1. 4 Truy cp Explorer t My Computer

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Cng c th s dng cc cch khc nh kch chut phi vo menu Start, chn Explore hay chn Start / Programs/ Accessories / Windows Explorer. Windows Explorer trnh by di dng hai ca s. Ca s bn tri hin th thng tin tng qut. Ca s bn phi hin th thng tin chi tit ca th mc hay a c chn. Hnh 1.5 minh ha ca s

Hnh 1. 5 Mn hnh Windows Explorer

- Up One Level: Chuyn ln th mc cha. - Cut: Ct i tng c chn vo Clipboard. - Copy: Sao chp i tng c chn vo Clipboard. - Paste: Chp ni dung t Clipboard n v tr c ch nh. - Undo: Hy b lnh va thc hin. - Delete: Xa i tng c chn. - Properties: Hin th hp thoi cho bit thuc tnh ca i tng chn. - Cc ch trnh by mn hnh nh: Detail, List, Title, ...
Hnh 1. 6 Cc nt

cng c trn thanh Toolbar

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1.3 Tp tin (file) Tp tin l tp hp cc thng tin, d liu c t chc theo mt cu trc nht nh. Mi tp tin c lu trn a vi tn phn bit. Trong cng mt cp lu tr khng cho php cc tp tin c tn trng nhau. Mi h iu hnh c quy tc t tn cho cc tp tin khc nhau. Tn ca tp tin thng gm hai phn l phn tn v phn m rng. Phn m rng c th c hoc c th khng. Tn ca tp tin do ngi to ra tp tin t. Tn file khng c cha cc k t c bit (l cc k t / \ ? * : < > |). Phn m rng thng c 3 k t v thng do cc chng trnh ng dng to ra. 1.4 Th mc (Folder hay Directory) thun tin cho qun l thng tin trong my tnh, ngi ta s dng cc th mc. Cc tp tin c quan h vi nhau thng c lu tr trong mt th mc. Th mc c cu trc nh hnh cy. Th mc gc chnh l a. V d th mc gc C:\ hay D:\. Th mc c c trng bi tn. Tn th mc khng di qu 255 k t v khng c cha cc k t c bit. Th mc cng c th rng hoc cha th mc khc. Trong cng mt cp khng c php c th mc c tn trng nhau. Th mc ang lm vic c gi l th mc hin hnh. to th mc, trong mn hnh Explorer hay My Computer, chuyn n v tr lu th mc. Nhn phm phi chut chn New | folder. Nhp vo tn th mc v nhn Enter kt thc. Hnh 1.7 minh ha thao tc ny.

Hnh 1. 7 To th mc t Explorer.

C th to th mc trong Explorer bng cch truy cp menu File, chn new folder. 1.5 i tn file, i tn th mc i tn th mc hay i tn file, chn file hoc th mc cn i tn. Nhn chut phi ln file hay th mc va chn v chn rename. Nhp vo tn mi v nhn Enter. Ch , khi i tn file th cn gi nguyn phn m rng ca tn file (extension) v trong h iu hnh windows cc phn mm ng dng nhn c cc file do chng to ra thng qua phn m rng ca tn file. Cng c th chn file (hay th mc) cn i tn, nhp chut tri, nhp vo tn mi cho tp tin hoc th mc v kt thc bng cch nhn phm Enter.

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1.6 Sao chp (copy) tp tin hay th mc. Sao chp th mc l to mt bn sao th mc bao gm cc tp tin v cc th mc con bn trong th mc . Sao chp tp tin hay mt nhm tp tin l to mt bn sao ca tp tin hay nhm cc tp tin. sao chp th mc hay tp tin, chn th mc hay tp tin cn sao chp. Nhn chut phi vo th mc hay tp tin v chn copy. M a hay th mc mun sao chp n, nhn chut phi v chn paste. Cng c th s dng t hp phm nng CTRL +C copy v CTRL+V dn. Cng c th s dng thao tc drag and drop (ko v th) copy v dn mt nhm th mc hay mt nhm tp tin. i vi cc a c th tho ri nh a mm, a CD, a flash, c th sao chp tp tin (nhm tp tin), th mc (nhm th mc) bng cch chn cc tp tin hay th mc, nhn chut phi v chn send to. Chn a ch hon tt qu trnh sao chp nh trong hnh 1.8.

Hnh 1. 8 Sao chp th mc sang a CD

1.7. Di chuyn th mc, file Di chuyn mt (hay mt nhm th mc) l chuyn ton b th mc (nhm th mc) bao gm cc tp tin v th mc con n v tr mi. Di chuyn mt tp tin (hay mt nhm tp tin) l chuyn tp tin (nhm tp tin) n v tr mi. di chuyn th mc (hay tp tin), chn th mc (tp tin) , kch chut phi v chn cut. Chuyn n a hay th mc ch, nhn phm phi chut v chn paste. Cng c th s dng t hp phm nng CTRL +X ct v CTRL + V dn hoc s dng menu edit / cut ct cc th mc hoc tp tin vng ngun v dng menu edit / paste dn cc th mc hoc file vo vng ch. 1.8 Xa th mc, tp tin Xa th mc (nhm th mc) l xa b ton b th mc (nhm th mc) bao gm cc tp tin v th mc con. xa th mc (nhm th mc) hay tp tin (nhm tp tin) chn th mc (nhm th muc) hoc tp tin (nhm tp tin) mun xa. Kch phm phi chut ln th mc (nhm th mc) hay tp tin (nhm tp tin) v chn delete. Cng c th nhn phm delete trn bn phm hoc chn menu edit / delete. Mt hp thoi hin ra xc nhn vic xa th mc hay tp tin nh trong hnh 1.7. Chn Yes xc nhn vic xo; Chn No hu b vic xo.

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1.8 Phc hi th mc hay tp tin b xa. Cc tp tin v th mc b xa ch c th phc hi c nu khi xa chng c xa theo kiu tm thi, tc l ch b a vo trong thng rc (Recycle Bin) m cha b xo vnh vin. phc hi li th mc b xo tm thi, lm nh sau:

Hnh 1. 9 Hp thoi xc nhn xa th mc

Truy cp vo thng rc (Recycle Bin) trn mn hnh nn desktop. Tm th mc mun phc hi, kch phi chut ln th mc v chn Restore (hoc bm vo Restore this Item trn File and Folder tasks). Lu : xo vnh vin khng th phc hi c, chn Recycle Bin v chn Delete file hoc th mc mun xo, hoc kt hp dng phm Shift khi xo. 1.9 Qun l a Trong Windows, a mm thng c k hiu l A:\ hoc B:\. a cng vt l thng c chia thnh cc a logic (partition). a logic u tin thng c k hiu l C:\. Thng th nn chia a vt l thnh mt s logic, trong logic u tin s dng ci t h iu hnh v cc chng trnh ng dng. Cc khc (D, E,): ln lt dng lu d liu hoc c th ci t cc chng trnh ng dng khi a C qu ti. hin th danh sch cc a chn My Computer xem dung lng v kch thc cn trng trn cc a C1: Vo menu View | Details C2: Kch phi chut ln nn mn hnh trng pha bn tri ca s My Computer | view | Details

Hnh 1. 10 Xem dung lng v kch thc cn trng ca a

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truy cp a, t mn hnh My computer hoc t mn hnh Explorer, chn a bng cch kch kp chut tri vo tn a. i tn a, t mn hnh My computer (hoc t Explorer) chn a mun i tn, nhn phm phi chut, chn rename, nhp vo tn mi v nhn Enter

Hnh 1. 11 i tn a cng

1.10. Thit lp cch biu din ngy gi, s v tin t Sau khi ci t Windows, my tnh s biu din ngy, gi, s, tin t theo chun ca M, mun thit lp li cch biu din ny, khi ng b cng c control panel bng menu start | settings | Control panel ca s Control Panel xut hin. thay i cch biu din ngy gi, t mn hnh Control Panel, chn Date, Time, Language, and Regional Options | Regional and Language Options. Hp thoi Regional and Language Options xut hin, chn Customize. Th number c cc la chn v biu din d liu kiu s. Trong Decimal symbol th hin cch biu din du thp phn; degital grouping symbol biu din du ngn cch lp n v, lp nghn, lp triu..; negative sign symbol th hin biu din du m v list seperator th hin du ngn cch danh sch. La chn cch biu din thch hp v kch chn OK. Th date th hin cch biu din ngy. Nh c th thy trong hnh 1.13, ngi s dng c th ci t cch biu din ngy kiu Vit nam theo dng dd-mm-yyyy. Trong dd l hai ch s biu din ngy; mm l hai ch s biu din thng; yyyy l bn ch s biu din nm. 1.11. Chy chng trnh trong Windows. chy chng trnh trong windows, thc hin mt trong cc cch sau: Cch 1: Tm v chy chng trnh t shortcut trn desktop. Nu chng trnh ci t c to mt shortcut trn nn desktop th chy chng trnh bng cch kch kp chut vo shortcut

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trn desktop.

Hnh 1. 12 Cng c Control Panel

Hnh 1. 13 Hp thoi Customize Regional Option th Number

Hnh 1. 14 Hp thoi Customize Regional Option th Date

Cch 2: Tm v chy chng trnh t menu Start. Chn Start | Programs . Chn chng trnh mun chy v kch p phm tri chut chy. Hnh 1.14 m t cch chy chng trnh Microsoft Excel t menu Start. Cch 3: Tm v chy chng trnh t menu Start | Run. chy chng trnh t ca s Run ca menu Start, c th nhp trc tip tn chng trnh vo ca s Run nh hnh 1.15. Ch cn nhp y c ng dn. C th dng nt Browse tm n v tr c chng trnh cn chy v thc hin chy chng trnh.Ch cc file c phn m rng l *.com, *.exe, *.bat mi c th thc thi c.

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Hnh 1. 15 Chy chng trnh t menu programs

Hnh 1. 16 Chy chng trnh t ca s Run

2. CN BN V EXCEL
2.1 Gii thiu Microsoft Excel l phn mm bng tnh in t ni ting trong gi phn mm Mcrosoft Office ca Microsoft. Excel chy trn mi trng Windows v c dng ph bin trong cng tc vn phng, trong qun l bi tnh n gin, trc quan v d s dng ca n. Cho n thi im hin ti (nm 2007) Microsoft a ra th trng phin bn Office 7.0. Tuy nhin trn th trng ang s dng ph bin phin bn Office XP hoc Office 2003. Gio trnh ny trnh by cc im chung ng dng cho cc phin bn Office 97, 2000, XP, 2003 nhng minh ha bng Office 2003. ci mi Office hoc ci t b sung thm mt s tnh nng ca Office. C th ci t Office t CD hay t cng. Nu ci dt t CD th a a CD vo CD qu trnh ci t s t ng tin hnh. Nu ci t t cng th tm m th mc cha b ci t v chy file Setup.exe. Thng thng b ci t thng cha ti D:\setup\Office. Hnh 1.16 minh ha cch chy file setup.exe trong th mc D:\setup\office2003. Khi ca s ci t hin ra yu cu nhp s ng k (product key) tin hnh nhp nh trong hnh 1.17. Nhn NEXT khi qu trnh nhp s ng k kt thc. Chp nhn cc iu kin v bn quyn phn mm v nhn NEXT. Ca s nh hnh 1.18 hin ra, chn ci t Custom Install chn cc tnh nng nng cao ng dng cho mn hc Tin hc ng dng. bc tip

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) theo chn Choose Advanced Customization of Applications. Nhn NEXT tip tc qu trnh ci t.

Hnh 1. 17 Chy file setup ci t MS Office

Hnh 1. 18 Nhp s ng k v chp nhn iu kin bn quyn

Khi qu trnh ci t kt thc, nhn OK. khi ng Excel, thc hin mt trong cc cch sau Cch 1: Kch p vo biu tng Excel trn nn desktop. Cch 2: T menu Start | Programs | Microsft office | Microsoft Office Excel 2003 nh trong hnh 1.14.

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Hnh 1. 19 Chn Custom Install ci cc tnh nng nng cao cho Excel

Hnh 1. 20 Chn Runall from Mycomputer ci t cc gi Add-ins cho Excel

Cc thnh phn chnh ca mn hnh lm vic ca Excel nh trong hnh 1.20

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Hnh 1. 21 Mn hnh lm vic ca Excel

Thanh tiu (Title): Thanh tiu cha biu tng ca Excel, tn tp hin ti, v nt thu nh ca s (minimize), nt phng to ca s (maximize) v nt ng ca s (close). Thanh bng chn (Menu): Thanh menu lit k cc lnh chnh ca Excel. Mi mc ng vi mt menu dc, m menu dc nhy chut vo tn mc.

Thanh cng c chun (Standard): Thanh cng c standard cha mt s lnh thng dng ca Excel di dng cc nt biu tng. Cc lnh ny c th c truy xut trc tip bng chut. hin tn cc nt tr chut ln trn nt m khng nhy chut. Thanh cng c inh dng (Formatting): Thanh formattng cha cc lnh di dng cc nt c biu tng nh dng d liu ca bng tnh nh kiu font, c font Thanh cng thc (Formula): gm cc Namebox (hin th to ca hin hnh), Insert Function (nhp cng thc vo ), Formula bar (ni dung d liu ca hin hnh).

Thanh cun (Scroll): Hai thanh trt bn phi v bn tri ca s d hin th nhng phn b che khut ca bng tnh. Dng trng thi (Status): Dng cha ch lm vic hin hnh nh Ready (sn sng nhp d liu), Enter (ang nhp d liu), Point (ang ghi chp cng thc tham chiu n mt a ch), Edit (ang iu chnh d liu hay cng thc trong hin hnh) hay ngha lnh hin hnh ca bng tnh v cc tnh trng hin hnh ca h thng nh NumLock, Capslock Danh sch sheet v cc nt dch chuyn (Sheet tab): Tn cc sheet c hin th trn cc vt (tab) gc tri di ca s workbook. di chuyn v tr ca sheet trong workbook kch gi v th chut n v tr mi. Vng lm vic: Vi phin bn 2003 v trc vng lm vic bao gm hn 16 triu bng tnh . 2.2 Worksheet, workbook, a ch Workbook. Mt file bng tnh Excel c gi l mt Workbook. Workbook ngm nh c tn l book#. Khi mi khi ng, file bng tnh u tin ngm nh c tn l book1.xls. Phn m rng XLS do Excel t ng thm vo khi t tn file. Worksheet: Mi workbook cha 256 worksheet (hay chartsheet). Cc worksheet hay chartsheet c gi l cc trang bng tnh. Cc trang ny c th cha d liu, cng thc tnh ton, th, bn . Thm mt Worksheet mi: Dng mt trong cc cch sau chn thm mt Sheet mi C1: Vo menu Insert | Worksheet. C2: Kch phi chut ln mt sheet bt k no trn bng tnh chn Insert, hp thoi Insert

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) hin ra nh hnh 1.21,chn Worksheet v bm nt OK chn.

Hnh 1. 22 Chn thm worksheet

Hnh 1. 23 i tn worksheet

i tn mt Sheet: Cc bc i tn mt sheet bao gm: B1: Chn Sheet mun i tn. B2: Dng mt trong cc cch: C1: Kch phi chut ln Sheet chn, chn Rename, sau nhp tn cho Sheet nh hnh 1.22. C2: Vo menu Format | Sheet | Rename, sau nhp tn cho Sheet B3: Nhp tn xong g Enter kt thc Sp xp v tr cc sheet. sp xp v tr cc sheet, chn mt trong cc cch sau: C1: Nhp chut vo tn sheet mun di chuyn ko v th vo v tr mong mun. C2: Kch phi chut ln sheet mun di chuyn chn Move or Copy, hp thoi Move or Copy hin ra. To book: V tr Workbook mun sao chp ti hoc di chuyn ti Before sheet: V tr ch mun sheet chuyn ti.

Hnh 1. 24 Sp xp v tr worksheet

Xo b mt Sheet. xa worksheet, dng mt trong cc cch sau C1: Chn Sheet mun xo, vo menu Edit | Delete sheet C2: Kch phi chut vo sheet mun xo chn Delete Nu sheet khng cha d liu th Excel xa m khng hi g. Nu sheet c cha d liu, s

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) hin ra hp thoi hi xc nhn thao tc xa nh hnh 1.24. xc nhn thao tc xa, nhn nt delete. hy nhn nt cancel.

Hnh 1. 25 Hp thoi xc nhn xa d liu

Cell. Mi worksheet cha hn 16 triu (cell). l giao ca cc ct v cc dng. T phin bn Office 2003 tr v trc, mi sheet c 256 ct k hiu t A-IV. ng thi mi sheet c 65536 dng k hiu t 1- 65536. Trong phin bn Excel 2007, s ct trong mt worksheet l 16 384 nh s t A- XFD v s dng l 1 048 576 nh s t 1-1 048 576. Do mi sheet c 17 178 820 608 000. Cc c tham kho bng a ch . Dng a ch thng dng l Ct Dng V d A1 l giao ca ct A dng 1. Ngoi ra cn s dng dng a ch R1C1 (s th t dng s th t ct) chn mt dng trong bng tnh, bm chut tri vo ch s k hiu dng . chn mt ct, bm chut tri vo ch ci k hiu ct . chn mt vng gm nhiu lin tc, bm gi chut tri v ko. Cng c th s dng phm shift kt hp vi phm mi tn hoc phm shift kt hp vi bm chut tri chn mt vng. chn nhiu vng khng lin nhau, nhn gi phm Ctrl trong khi bm chut tri. chn c bng tnh, bm chut tri vo v tr gc trn cng bn tri ca bng tnh, ni giao nhau ca tn hng v tn ct hoc dng t hp phm Ctrl + A. iu chnh rng ca dng bm gi v ko chut trn ng phn cch gia hai v tr tiu tn ct. thay i rng ca dng, bm gi v ko chut trn ng phn cch gia hai dng ti v tr tiu dng. thay i rng ca nhiu ct, chn vng c cc ct cn thay i rng, vo menu Format | Column | Width, hp thoi column width xut hin. G vo rng ct cn thay i ri chn OK hay nhn Enter. Lm tng t cho dng (row). a ch tng i: a ch tng i c dng ct dng v d B3. Mt cng thc c cha a ch tng i khi copy n v tr mi a ch s t ng bin i. a ch tuyt i: a ch tuyt i c dng $ct$dng. V d $B$3. Mt cng thc c cha a ch tuyt i khi copy n v tr mi a ch khng thay i. a ch hn hp: a ch hn hp l dng kt hp ca c a ch tng i v a ch tuyt i theo dng $ct dng (v d $B3) hay ct $dng (v d B$3). Khi copy mt cng thc c cha a ch hn hp, thnh phn tuyt i khng bin i, thnh phn tng i bin i. chuyn i gia cc dng a, s dng phm chc nng F4.

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2.3 Cc dng d liu trong Excel Nm vng cc dng d liu rt quan trng gii cc bi ton trong Excel. nh dng d liu, la chn (bi en) vng d liu, chn menu format | cells | numbers. Ca s nh hnh 1.24 hin ra. C th s dng t hp phm tt Ctrl + 1 hoc kch chut phi vo vng chn cng cho cng kt qu.

Hnh 1. 26 nh dng d liu

C cc dang d liu sau General - D liu tng qut: Kiu ny do Excel t ng nhn dng Number - D liu s: D liu kiu s t ng cn thng bn phi . Theo ngm nh, kiu s s dng du chm (.) ngn cch phn thp phn v phn nguyn. Biu din s m trong Excel s dng 4 cch nh trong hnh 1.26 Cch 1: S dng du tr (-) nh trong ton hc. Cch 2: S dng du ngoc n nh trong k ton. Cch 3: S dng mu . Cch 4: Va dng mu va dng du ngoc n. Cc hm ti chnh ca Excel s dng cch th t. s dng du phn cch phn nghn, bm chn Use 1000 separator (,). Thay i s cc s sau du phn cch thp phn trong Decimal places.

Hnh 1. 27 Biu din s m trong Excel

Currency - D liu kiu tin t: D liu kiu tin t t ng cn thng bn phi . Dng ny

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) biu din cc n v tin t ca cc nc trn th gii. D liu kiu tin t biu din s thp phn ging nh d liu kiu s. Accounting - D liu kiu k ton: D liu kiu k ton t ng cn thng bn phi . D liu kiu k ton cng biu din cc n v tin t tng t nh d liu kiu currency, tuy nhin khng c cch biu din s m. Date - Kiu ngy thng: D liu kiu ngy thng t ng cn thng bn phi . Kiu ngy thng c th thc hin vi cc php tnh s hc. Theo ngm nh, kiu ngy thng nhp vo Excel theo dng MM/DD/YY. (MM: Biu din thng. DD: Biu din ngy. YY: Biu din nm). Trong ca s type lit k cc cch hin th ngy trong Excel. Time - Kiu thi gian: Kiu thi gian t ng cn thng b phi . Biu din thi gian trong Excel c dng HH:MM:SS. (HH: Ch gi. MM: Ch pht SS: Ch giy). Percentage - Kiu phn trm: Kiu phn trm t ng cn thng bn phi . Kiu phn trm i mt s sang dng phn trm bng cch nhn vi 100 v thm du % vo sau s . Fraction - Kiu phn s: Kiu phn s t ng cn thng bn phi . Kiu phn s biu din cc s dng phn s. Kiu hin th c chn trong mc Type. Text - Kiu k t: Kiu k t l s pha trn ca cc ch ci cc ch s v cc k t c bit D liu kiu k t t ng cn tri. S dng d liu kiu k t trong hm hoc trong cc php ton phi c bao gia cp du nhy kp (). Lu : Cp du nhy kp khc 2 cp du nhy n (). . Ch : Vi cc dy k t bt u bng s 0 v ngha (v d s in thoi 0913) khi nhp vo bng tnh, Excel s t ng ct i s 0 u tin. gi li s 0 ny, s dng du () trc khi dy k t hoc nh dng kiu k t. Scientific - Kiu rt gn: p dng cho kiu s. Khi biu din cc s qu ln hoc qu nh, Excel a v dng rt gn tit kim khng gian. V d: 123.45 = 1.23E+02; 0.00123 = 1.23E-03 Special - Kiu c bit: Kiu ny dng biu din cc dng c bit nh m s bu in, s in thoi kiu M Custom - Kiu do ngi dng nh ngha: Vi kiu ny ngi dng c th nh ngha cch hin th cc dng d liu theo mun. V d: Khi nhp ngy vo Excel, c th s dng cch ngm nh MM/DD/YY (thng/ngy/nm). Sau s dng kiu custom nh dng thnh ngy kiu Vit Nam bng cch nhp vo ca s type DD/MM/YYYY (Ngy/Thng/Nm) nh trong hnh 1.26 2.4 Cc php tnh trong Excel Trong Excel c th thc hin cc php ton s hc (+, -, *, / v ^), cc php ton logic (>=, <=..), v php ton ghp chui (&). Bng 1.1 tm tt cc php ton v cch dng.

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Hnh 1. 28 Dng kiu Custom nh dng ngy thng Bng 1. 1 Cc php tnh trong Excel

Php ton + * / ^ % & > < >= <= = <>

ngha Php cng Php tr Php nhn Php chia Lu tha Phn trm Ni chui Ln hn Nh hn Ln hn hoc bng Nh hn hoc bng Bng Khc 1+2 = 3 5-2 = 3 3*5 = 15 27/3 = 9 2^3 = 23 = 8 5% = 0.05

V d

Vit & Nam = Vit Nam 4 > 3 = True 4 < 3 = False Aa >= aa = False Aa <= aa = True B = B = True a <> A = True

Th t thc hin cc php ton nh sau: php ton ly tha, php ton nhn chia, php ton cng tr, php ton logic. thc hin cc php ton tri vi th t ny, s dng du ngc n ( ). 2.5 S dng hm trong Excel Hm (Function) trong Excel l mt t hp cc cng thc c xy dng sn nhm thc hin cc tnh ton hay x l chuyn bit no . Hm c c trng bi tn hm, du m ng ngoc v danh sch cc tham s. VD: Hm tnh tng =Sum(2,5,3) = 10. Tn hm l cc tn chun do Excel quy nh. Du m ng ngoc bt buc phi c. i s l cc d liu u vo tnh ton hay x l. i s c th c hoc khng c. Nu c nhiu hn mt i s th cc i s c ngn cch bi du ,. Trng hp du , c s dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) lm du thp phn th du ngn cch l du ;. Xem hnh 1.12 mc 1.10 thit lp cch biu din kiu s. Cc i s c th l kiu s, kiu ngy thng, l a ch , kiu k t, c th l hm khc. S lng i s ti a l 30. Trong Excel 2007, s lng i s ti a l 64. Nu k t nhp vo t bn phm th phi bao trong cp du nhy kp (v d A). Khi s dng cc hm lng nhau, hm n lm i s cho hm kia, Excel cho php cc hm lng nhau ti a l 7 cp. Trong Excel 2007, hm c th lng nhau ti a l 50 cp. nhp hm vo bng tnh, s dng mt trong cc cch sau: Cch 1: Nhp hm trc tip vo ch kt qu tnh ton theo c php = tenham(danh sch tham s). C th nhp trc tip t thanh cng thc. Cch 2: Nhp hm t giao din Insert function. Truy cp menu Insert | function hoc t biu tng fx trn thanh cng thc

Khi , hp thoi insert fucntion s hin ra nh hnh 1.29. chn tn hm t mc select a fucntion. C th chn mc select a category chn nhm hm nhm thu hp phm vi tm kim hm. Mc category ch ra mt s nhm hm nh nhm hm ti chnh (finacial), nhm hm ngy thng v thi gian (date & time), nhm hm ton hc v lng gic (math & trig), nhm hm thng k (statistical), nhm hm tm kim v tham kho (lookup & reference), nhm hm c s d liu (database), nhm hm x l k t (text), nhm hm logic (logical), nhm hm thng tin bng tnh (information) v nhm hm k thut my tnh (engineering).

Hnh 1. 29 Hp thoi Insert function

Mt s hm thng dng trong Excel 2.5.1. Mt s hm ton hc Bng 1.2 trnh by mt s hm ton hc thng dng
Bng 1. 2 Mt s hm ton hc thng dng

Tn hm ABS AVERAGE

Cng dng C php, gii thch Tnh tr tuyt i ca mt =ABS(number) s numbers s mun ly tr tuyt i. Tnh trung bnh cng ca =AVERAGE(number1,number2,...) cc i s number1,number2 c th c t 1 n 30 s cn tnh trung bnh cng. Nu i s l tham s kiu text, logic, rng th gi tr c b qua. Nu

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C php, gii thch l zero th c tnh. m cc trong phm vi =COUNTIF(range, criteria) COUNTIF tha mn iu kin cho Range: vng cn m Criteria: iu kin Tnh ly tha c s e =EXP(number) EXP number s m ca c s e. Lm trn xung s =INT(number) INT nguyn gn nht number s cn lm trn Tnh logarit c s t =LN(number) LN nhin ca mt s number l s thc dng ta mun tnh logarit t nhin ca n. LN l nghch o ca EXP: ly tha c s e. Tnh logarit LOG =LOG(number, base) number l s thc dng ta mun tnh logarit. base l c s tnh logarit, mc nh l 10. Tnh phn d ca php =MOD(number, divisor) MOD chia Number: S b chia Divisor: S chia Tnh ly tha ca mt s =POWER(number, power) POWER number c s, power s m. C th dng ton t ^ thay th hm POWER. Tnh tng tt c cc s =SUMIF(range,criteria,sum_range) SUMIF trong dy tha iu kin range dy mun tnh ton. N c th l dy cha iu kin hoc dy va cha iu kin, va cha cc gi tr tnh tng. criteria iu kin tnh tng c th l s, biu thc, hoc kiu vn bn. sum_range l dy gi tr cn tnh tng. Nu khng c sum_range th range l dy cha gi tr tnh tng. SUMPRODUCT Tnh tng cc tch cc =SUMPRODUCT(array1, array2,..) phn t tng ng trong array1,array2,.... c th c t 2 n 30 dy s cc mng gi tr cng kch thc. Nu cc mng gi tr khng cng kch thc hm s tr v li #VALUE! Mt phn t bt k trong mng khng phi l s th coi l zero. Tnh cn bc 2 ca mt s =SQRT(number) SQRT number s thc bt k. Nu number l s m, hm tr v li #NUM! Tnh tng bnh phng =SUMQ(number1, number2,..) SUMSQ cc cc s number1,number2,... c th c t 1 n 30 s thc bt k Tnh tng ca tng bnh =SUMX2PY2(array_x,array_y) SUMX2PY2 phng cc phn t tng array_x,array_y,.... dy hoc gi tr kiu ng ca 2 mng gi tr mng. Nu cc mng gi tr khng cng kch thc hm s tr v li #VALUE!. Mt phn t bt k trong mng rng, kiu text, kiu logic

Tn hm

Cng dng

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Tn hm SUM

Cng dng Tnh tng ca cc s

C php, gii thch c b qua, zero c tnh. =SUM(number1, number2,..) number1, number2 c 1 30 s cn tnh tng. S, gi tr logic, hay ch i din cho s m bn g trc tip vo cng thc th c tnh. Cng thc tham chiu ti gi tr logic, text i din cho s th gi tr c b qua.

2.5.2. Mt s hm x l k t Bng 1.3 lit k mt s hm x l k t thng dng. Cc hm khc c th tham kho trong danh sch cc hm ca Excel.
Bng 1. 3 Mt s hm x l k t thng dng

Tn hm Cng dng Trch bn tri mt chui LEFT Tnh di mt chui Trch chui con t mt chui

LEN MID

RIGHT

Trch bn phi mt chui

C php =LEFT(text,num_chars) text l chui cn trch k t. num_chars l k t cn trch bn tri chui text =LEN(text) text l ni dung cn xc nh di =MID(text,start_num,num_chars) text l chui hoc tham chiu n chui. start_num: v tr bt u trch lc chui con trong text. num_chars: s k t ca chui mi cn trch t chui text. Nu start_num: ln hn chiu di chui text th hm tr v chui rng "". start_num: nh hn 1 hm tr v li #VALUE!. num_chars: m MID tr v li #VALUE! =RIGHT(text, num_chars) text l chui cn trch k t. num_chars l k t m bn cn trch bn phi chui text. Nu num_chars ln hn di ca chui th s tr v ton b chui text. num_chars nu b qua th mc nh l 1. num_chars khng nhn s m SEARCH(find_text,within_text,star_num) find_text: chui cn tm. C th dng k t ? i din mt k t n, dng * i din mt nhm k t. Nu mun tm du ? hoc du * th g du ~ trc k t . within_text: chui cha chui cn tm. star_num: v tr bt u tm kim. SEARCH khng phn bit ch thng, ch hoa. SERACH tm khng c kt qu s tr v li

SEARCH Tm kim mt chui

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Tn hm TRIM

Cng dng

C php

VALUE

#VALUE! Xa tt c cc k t trng ca =TRIM(text) chui tr nhng khang n dng text chui cn xa cc k t trng. lm khang cch bn trong chui. Chuyn mt chui thnh s. =VALUE(text) text l chui vn bn i din cho mt s. text l nh dng s, ngy thng, hoc thi gian bt k c Microsoft Excel cng nhn. Nu khng phi nh dng trn s tr v li #VALUE!

2.5.3.Mt s hm logic Bng 1.4 nu mt s hm logic thng dng. Thng tin v cc hm logic khc c gi tham kho trong tr gip trc tuyn ca Excel.
Bng 1. 4 Mt s hm logic

Tn hm

AND

OR

C php =AND(logical_1,logical_2,...) Tr v kt qu TRUE nu tt c logical_1,logical_2 l cc u kin cn kim iu kin u TRUE, Tr v tra. Cc iu kin c th l biu thc, vng FALSE nu mt trong cc iu tham chiu hoc mng gi tr. Cc iu kin kin FALSE. phi c gi tr l TRUE hoc FALSE. Nu 1 trong cc iu kin c gi tr khng phi Logic, hm AND tr v li #VALUE! =OR(logical_1,logical_2,...) logical_1,logical_2 l cc u kin cn kim Tr v TRUE nu mt trong cc tra. Cc iu kin c th l biu thc, vng iu kin l TRUE. Tr v FALSE tham chiu hoc mng gi tr. Cc iu kin nu tt c cc iu kin l FALSE. phi c gi tr l TRUE hoc FALSE. Nu 1 trong cc iu kin c gi tr khng phi Logic, hm AND tr v li #VALUE!
=IF(logical_test,value_if_true,value_if_false)

Cng dng

IF

logical_test: iu kin xt, logical c th l Tr v mt gi tr nu iu kin l kt qu ca mt hm lun l nh AND, OR,... ng, Tr v mt gi tr khc nu value_if_true: gi tr tr v nu iu kin logical_test l TRUE. iu kin l sai. value_if_false: gi tr tr v nu iu kin logical_test l FALSE.

2.5.4.Mt s hm tm kim v tham chiu Bng 1. 5 Mt s hm tm kim Tn hm Cng dng C php D tm mt gi tr dng u =HLOOKUP(lookup_value,table_array, HLOOKUP tin ca mt bng d liu. Nu row_index_num,range_lookup)

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Tn hm

Cng dng C php tm thy s tr v gi tr cng lookup_value: l tm mt gi tr dng tm ct vi gi tr tm thy trn hng kim, n c th l mt gi tr, mt tham chiu c ch nh. Hm HLOOKUPhay mt chui k t. table_array l vng cha thng dng in thng tin d liu cn tm. y l bng d liu ph c vo bng d liu t bng d liu ni dung thng c nh, bao qut ly d ph. liu. Cc gi tr dng u tin c th l gi tr s, chui k t, hoc logic. Nu range_lookup l TRUE th cc gi tr dng u tin ca bng d liu ph ny phi c sp xp tng dn Nu khng hm HLOOKUP s tr gi tr khng chun xc. row_index_num s th t dng trn bng d liu ph m d liu cn ly. Gi tr tr v nm trn dng ch nh ny v ct m hm tm thy gi tr d tm lookup_value. range_lookup l gi tr logic c ch nh HLOOKUP tm kim chnh xc hay l tng i. Nu range_lookup l TRUE hm s tr v kt qu tm kim tng i. Nu khng tm thy kt qu chnh xc, n s tr v mt gi tr ln nht m nh hn gi tr tm kim lookup_value. Nu range_lookup l FALSE hm tm kim chnh xc, nu khng c tr v li #N/A Khi dng hm HLOOKUP in d liu cho mt bng d liu th trong cng thc cn phi to a ch tuyt i cho bng d liu ph table_array cng thc ng cho cc hng cn li khi copy cng thc xung cc bn di. Nu lookup_value nh hn gi tr nh nht trong dng u tin ca bng d liu ph, HLOOKUP tr v li #N/A!. D tm mt gi tr ct u tin =VLOOKUP(lookup_value,table_array,ro bn tri ca mt bng d liu. w_index_num,range_lookup) Nu tm thy s tr v gi tr ngha cc tham s v cch s dng tng t cng trn dng vi gi tr tm nh HLOOKUP VLOOKUP thy trn ct m bn ch nh. Hm VLOOKUP thng dng in thng tin vo bng d liu t bng d liu ph. 2.5.5.Mt s hm ngy thng v thi gian Bng 1.6 trnh by mt s hm ngy thng v thi gian thng dng. Cc hm ngy thng v thi gian khc c gi tham kho trong tr gip trc tuyn (Help) ca Excel.

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Bng 1. 6 Mt s hm thi gian C php =DATE(year,month,day) year s ch nm, c th c t 1 n 4 k s. Microsoft Excel t bin dch i s nm ty thuc vo i s ngy thng ang dng. Nu s nm year nm t 0 n 1899 th n c Tr v mt chui hoc mt s th cng vi 1900 tnh. V d year l 105 th hin mt ngy thng y . Nu year c hiu trong cng thc l 2005. Nu nh dng l General trc khi 1900 =< year =< 9999 th year chnh l s DATE nhp hm th kt qu tr v l nm . Nu year < 0 hoc year > 10,000 th chui ngy thng. hm tr v li #NUM! month s ch thng. Nu s thng ln hn 12 th hm t quy i 12 = 1 nm v cng vo year s nm tng ln do s thng. day s ch ngy. Nu s ngy ln hn s ngy ca thng th hm t quy i l tng s thng. =DAY(serial_number) Tr v th t ca ngy t chui serial_number dng chui s tun t ca DAY ngy thng. ngy cn tm. Ngy thng ny nn nhp bng hm DATE hoc kt qu tr v t hm khc. =DATEVALUE(date_text) date_text l dng chui vn bn i din cho Tr v mt chui s thp phn ngy thng. V d: "20/11/2005" th chui bn DATEVAL biu th ngy thng c i din trong du nhy kp l i din cho ngy thng. bi chui vn bn date_text. date_text trong Excel dnh cho Windows gii UE hn trong khong t "01/01/1900" n "31/12/9999" nu qu khong ngy DATEVALUE s tr v li #VALUE!. =MONTH(serial_number) Tr v th t ca thng t gi tr serial_number dng chui s tun t ca MONTH kiu ngy thng. thng cn tm. Ngy thng ny nn nhp bng hm DATE hoc kt qu tr v t hm khc. =YEAR(serial_number) serial_number dng chui hoc s thp phn Tr v nm ca mt gi tr hoc i din ngy thng m bn cn tm s nm YEAR chui i din cho ngy thng. ca n. Gi tr ny nn c nhp bng hm DATE hoc l kt qu cc cng thc hoc hm khc. 2.5.6 Mt s hm c s d liu Cc hm c s d liu cho php thc hin cc php tnh c nhiu hn mt iu kin. Tuy nhin cn xy dng vng iu kin (bng ph) trc khi s dng hm c s d liu. iu kin trc tip l nhng iu kin m khng cha cng thc trong. Vi mt trng (ct) c t 2 iu kin tr ln th iu kin xy ra ng thi AND (v) c th hin trn cng 1 dng. iu kin xy ra khng ng thi OR (hoc) c th hin trn cc dng khc nhau. iu kin gin tip: L nhng iu kin c cha cng thc bn trong, gi tr ca vng iu kin ny Tn hm Cng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) l gi tr logic (TRUE hoc FALSE). Tiu vng iu kin gin tip khng c trng vi tiu ca bt k trng no. Bng 1. 7 Mt s hm c s d liu Tn hm DCOUNT Cng dng m xem trong vng d liu c bao nhiu gi tr ct cn m c dng s tho mn vng iu kin. C php = DCOUNT(database,field,criteria) Database: c s d liu. Field: trng cn m Criteria: iu kin =DSUM(database,filed, criteria) Tnh tng cc gi tr trong ct Database: c s d liu. cn tnh tng nm trong vng Field: trng cn tnh tng d liu tho mn vng iu Criteria: iu kin kin. =DMAX(database,filed, criteria) Database: c s d liu. Tm gi tr ln nht trong ct Field: trng cn tm gi tr ln nht tha mn vng iu kin Criteria: iu kin =DMIN(database,filed, criteria) Database: c s d liu. Tm gi tr nh nht trong ct Field: trng cn tm gi tr nh nht tha mn vng iu kin Criteria: iu kin =DAVERAGE(database,filed, criteria) Tm gi tr trung bnh cng Database: c s d liu. trong ct tha mn vng iu Field: trng cn tm gi tr trung bnh cng kin Criteria: iu kin

DSUM

DMAX

DMIN

DAVERAGE

MT S LI THNG GP TRONG EXCEL


##### Li rng . Li ny sinh ra khi ct thiu rng. Dng chut ko rng ct ra cho ph hp. Khi gi tr ngy thng hoc thi gian nhp vo l s m cng pht sinh li ny. #VALUE! Li gi tr. Li ny sinh ra khi cng thc c nhp vo mt chui trong khi hm yu cu mt s hoc mt gi tr logic. C th do ang nhp mt hoc chnh sa cc thnh phn ca cng thc m v tnh nhn Enter. Cng c th do nhp qu nhiu tham s cho mt ton t hoc mt hm trong khi chng ch dng mt tham s. V d =LEFT(A2:A5). Mt trng hp sinh li # VALUE khi l thi hnh mt marco (lnh t ng) lin quan n mt hm m hm tr v li #VALUE! #DIV/0! Li chia cho 0. Li ny sinh ra do nhp vo cng thc s chia l 0. V d = MOD(10,0) hoc s chia trong cng thc l mt tham chiu n trng. #NAME! Sai tn. Li ny do dng nhng hm khng thng trc trong Excel nh EDATE, EOMONTH, NETWORKDAYS, WORKDAYS,... Khi cn phi vo menu Tools - Add-ins.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) nh du chn vo tin ch Analysis ToolPak. Cng c th do nhp sai tn mt hm s. Trng hp ny xy tra khi dng b g ting Vit ch Telex v tnh lm sai tn hm nh IF thnh , VLOOKUP thnh VLKUP. Trng hp dng nhng k t khng c php trong cng thc cng pht sinh li ny. Mt s trng hp khc bao gm hhp mt chui trong cng thc m khng c ng v m du nhy i."" hoc khng c du 2 chm : trong dy a ch trong cng thc. #N/A Li d liu. Li ny sinh ra khi gi tr tr v khng tng thch t cc hm d tm nh VLOOKUP, HLOOKUP, LOOKUP hoc MATCH hoc dng hm HLOOKUP, VLOOKUP, MATCH tr v mt gi tr trong bng cha c sp xp. Cng c th do khng ng nht d liu khi s dng a ch mng trong Excel. Trng hp qun mt hoc nhiu i s trong cc hm t to hoc dng mt hm t to khng hp l cng sinh ra li ny. . #REF! Sai vng tham chiu. Li ny pht sinh do xa nhng ang c tham chiu bi cng thc. Cng c khi do dn nhng gi tr c to ra t cng thc ln chnh vng tham chiu ca cng thc . C th do lin kt hoc tham chiu n mt ng dng khng th chy c. #NUM! Li d liu kiu s. Li ny pht sinh do dng mt i s khng ph hp trong cng thc s dng i s l d liu kiu s. V d cng thc ch tnh s dng nhng li nhp vo s m. C th do dng hm lp i lp li dn n hm khng tm c kt qu tr v. Cng c trng hp do dng mt hm tr v mt s qu ln hoc qu nh so vi kh nng tnh ton ca Excel. #NULL! Li d liu rng. Li ny do dng mt dy tan t khng ph hp hoc dng mt mng khng c phn cch. 2.6. Cng thc mng Trong Excel c mt kh nng c o l tnh ton vi cc mng d liu. Cc cng thc kiu ny c gi l cng thc mng. Mt cng thc mng c th tr kt qu v mt hay l mt vng (range). Mt s hm ca Excel thao tc vi cng thc mng nh MINVERSE,MMULT, TREND, LINEST, LOGEST, GROWTH.. nhp cng thc mng, chn vng cha kt qu, nhp cng thc m nhn ng thi t hp phm Control+Shift+Enter (CSE). y l im khc bit quan trng gia cng thc mng v cng thc thng. Cng thc thng kt thc vic nhp cng thc bng phm Enter. Ch rng Excel t ng sinh ra cp du { } bao ly cng thc mng. S dng cng thc mng c cc u im sau: - Trnh c v tnh sao chp sai cng thc do chy a ch tham chiu - Trnh c vic v tnh xa hay sa cha mt no ca vng cng thc mng v cng thc mng khng cho php sa cha hay xa mt trong vng c cng thc mng. - Trnh vic ngi s dng khng thnh tho Excel lm xo trn cc cng thc

2.6.1 Cng thc mng tr kt qu v mt vng nhiu

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 1.30 minh ha vic s dng cng thc mng. Thng thng tnh ton gi tr cho ct thnh tin, cn phi s dng 6 php ton nhn (nhp cng thc cho D2 ri copy cng thc cho vng D2:D7). Tuy nhin khi s dng cng thc mng ch cn nhp mt cng thc duy nht. Chn vng s lu kt qu (trong hnh 1.30 l vng D2:D7), nhp cng thc = B2:B7*C2:C7 nhn CSE. Nh vy vng D2:D7 khi xem s thy cng thc {= B2:B7*C2:C7}.

Hnh 1. 30 Cng thc mng tr v mt vng

2.6.2. Cng thc mng tr kt qu v mt Vn dng tng trn, nu khng cn tnh ton ct thnh tin m ch cn tnh tng tin thu c th c th s dng cng thc mng nh sau: {=SUM(B2:B7*C2:C7)}. Hnh 1.31 Minh ha cch s dng cng thc ny. Ch rng trng hp ny c th s dng cng thc =SUMPRODUCT(B2:B7,C2:C7) cng cho cng kt qu.

Hnh 1. 31 Cng thc mng tr kt qu v mt

Trong cc chng sau, ta s c dp s dng mt s cng thc mng ca Excel p dng cho hi quy v d bo. 2.6.3 Hiu chnh cng thc mng Do khng th xa mt , thay i ni dung ca hay chn thm mt vo vng c cha cng

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) thc mng, hiu chnh cng thc mng, kch hot thanh cng thc hay nhn phm F2, Excel s b cp du { } v khi hiu chnh xong li nhn t hp phm CSE kt thc. m rng hay thu hp cng thc mng nhiu , chn ton b vng cha cng thc mng trn bng tnh. Nhn phm F2 vo ch hiu chnh. Nhn Control+Enter chuyn v cng thc thng. Chn vng xut kt qu mi bng cch thu hp hay m rng vng c. Nhn phm F2 vo ch hiu chnh. Kt thc bng CSE.

BI TP CHNG 1
Bi 1.1. To th mc trong a C: theo dng C:\tenthumuc. Trong tenthumuc l tn lp ca sinh vin. Bi 1.2. S dng cc cng thc hc in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 M H K2AM3 H5BN4 K7AN3 H9BP4 B9NAB B8NCB K3AB3 K5AL0 B9NPB K8AP3 Mt hng Ngy 07-12 12-12 08-12 09-12 11-12 07-12 10-12 14-12 13-12 14-12 Tng Cng Bng Danh Mc n v SLng 5 2 12 7 3 5 6 4 10 20 n gi Thnh tin

M Tn mt hng n v KA3 Giy ph to A3 Ram HB4 Bt ch en T KA0 Giy A0 T BNB Bt bi Bn ngh Hp Tng s tin bn c ca cc mt hng Giy Bt ch Bt bi

n gi (1000 ) 39,5 15,2 10 22,1

S dng k t th 1, th 3 v 5 tim tn hng trong bn danh mc. Tnh tng s tin bn c bng hm DSUM. Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin, chng 1, bi s 2.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Bi 1.3. Nhp bng I bng II bng III trong sheet 1. Nhp danh sch khch hng trong sheet 2 M k S c S mi 1259 CQC 572 793 1574SHB 2550 2802 2337SHA 1500 1580 4210CQB 3200 3450 4879CQA 4400 4650 5046CQD 2800 2970 5282KDB 4500 4980 5781SHC 2400 2450 6254KDA 1880 2200 8219KDC 1250 1350 9231KDD 4321 4492 Bng phu I K vc A B C D SH 500 600 650 700 CQ 800 900 1000 1200 KD Bng ph II Kvc A 150 250 200 B 100 200 150 C 80 170 120 D 75 150 100

900 SH 1000 CQ 1250 KD 1350 Bng ph III

Vt DM Di T1 ln n di Trn hoc bng

S ln 1 2 2

H s 1.5 2.0 3.0

Yu cu:. Tnh s in tiu th ca tng khch hng.Tnh nh mc in cho tng khch hng da vo 2 k t th 5&6, v k t cui ca M DK v bng II. Tnh gi in cho tng khch hng da vo 2 k t th 5 & 6 v k t cui M DK v bng ph I. Tnh tin in i vi phn tiu th in trong nh mc. Tnh tin in i vi phn tiu th vt nh mc d theo h s ph s ln vt nh mc (KTT-DM)/DM trong bng III Tnh s tin khch hng phi tr Sp th t bng tnh theo ct nh mc gim dn. Tnh bng thng k sau SH Tng tin in Tin in vt nh mc cao nht Tng tin in vt nh mc Da vo bng ny v biu Tng tin in v tin in vt nh mc cho tng khch hng Trch thng tin v nhng khch hng tiu th vt nh mc khu vc D. CQ KD

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 3 Bi 1.4. S dng cc cng thc hc ca Excel in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau Loi h X N X X X N X Tn hng S lng 100 50 20 50 100 500 30 n gi Thnh tin

Ngy 23-02 25-02 01-03 15-03 28-03 29-03 04-04

M FECT-L1 ALXD-L2 FECT-L2 FECT-L3 ALXD-L1 FECC-L1 ALXD-L3

Loi

2 k t u ca m hng FE AL

Tn hng
Thp xy dng Nhm xy dng

n gi xut hng (1kg) 2 k t cui L1 L2 Loi hng Loi 1 Loi 2 FE AL 80000 120000 60000 100000

L3 Loi 3 20000 40000

Thng k Tn hng FE AL Nu loi ha n l X (xut) th tra trong bng ph. Nu loi ha n l N (nhp) th gi ch bng 85% gi trong bng ph. Thnh tin = Slung*n gi. Nu ha n bng X v ngy 15/3 th c gim 10%. in thng tin vo bng thng k. Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 4 Bi 1.5. S dng cc cng thc hc ca Excel in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau Gi in vt nh mc bng gi in nh mc*1.35 To bng thng k s tin cc h CQ, v cc h CB phi np. Tng thnh tin Xut Nhp

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

in k DK001 DK002 DK003 DK004 DK005 DK006 DK007 DK008 DK009 DK010

Ch h

Loi h CQ-A NN-D CB-A CB-C CQ-A CB-E CB-C CN-D NN-D CN-E

S c 210 220 270 270 300 280 210 230 260 270

S mi 280 330 300 350 340 330 340 350 320 340

Trong Vt mc mc

Tin trong M

Tin Ngoi M

Phi tr

A B C D E

CQ 50 60 70 75 85

Bng nh mc CB CN 40 20 40 50 55 70 65 95 70 110

KD 60 80 95 120 150

NN 30 60 85 90 95

CQ CB CN KD NN

Bng gi in (US Cent) A B C D 30 40 45 55 15 25 25 50 12,5 24,5 20,5 50,5 35,7 60 70,5 80 10 20 15 45

E 70 50 40,5 90,5 35

Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 5

Bi 1.6. S dng cc cng thc hc ca Excel in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau S Ngy lng bn (kg) 15-01 50,5 10-02 100,0 20-04 200,0

STT 1 2 3

Tn M H hng HF01E HC02U HX01M

Tin n gi gim

Thnh tin

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

4 5 6 7

HF03E HC08U HA02L HX03M

30-03 20-04 10-02 15-01

20,8 50,8 30,5 50,2

M hng FE AL CU XM

Tn hng St Nhm ng Xi mng

Bng n gi n gi mi thng (ng/1kg) 1 2 3 4 5000 5500 5000 5500 7000 8000 9000 9000 3000 300 3500 4000 8000 8500 9000 10000

Thng Tng thnh tin

Bng thng k 1 2

Tng s lng ca mt hng xi mng bn trong thng 1 Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 6. Bi 1.7. S dng cc cng thc hc ca Excel in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau a im Min gim Thnh tin

S 1 2 3 4 5 6

Ngy 15-07 20-08 01-07 05-09 01-08 10-07

M chuyn CH04 CH02 CH01 CH03 CH04 CH03

Bng ph M chuyn CH01 CH02 CH03 CH04 a im SaPa H Ni Lng sn H Long Loi xe 52 24 12 52 Gi 15,000,000 ng 20,000,000 ng 5,000,000 ng 10,000,000 ng

Thng

Bng thng k Tng s Tng gi tr

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

chuyn 7 8 9 Nu a im l Sapa th c gim 10%. Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 7. Bi 1.8. S dng cc cng thc hc ca Excel in vo cc ct ca bng tnh sau Ghi bi vo th mc va to cu 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 1, bi s 8. n v

STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

M Hng PC586 PC686 FD120 HD420 HD850 PC586 FD120 FD185

Tn hng

S lng 14 10 12 4 10 4 10 10

Ngy bn n gi 02-04 12-04 09-04 22-04 18-04 27-04 11-04 06-04

Thnh tin

Bng tn kho thng 3 M hng PC586 PC686 HD420 HD850 FD120 FD185 Tn hng My tnh 586 My tnh 686 a cng Samsung a cng MAXTOR USB Ultra USB Traveller n gi (USD) 700 1000 80,5 120,2 4,9 6,2 S lng 20 30 20 14 10 20

Tng kt thng 4 Mt hng PC HD FD

S lng

Thnh tin

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

CHNG 2 GII BI TON TI U

1. C S L THUYT CA BI TON TI U
Trong ton hc, thut ng ti u ha ch vic nghin cu cc bi ton c dng Cho trc: mt hm f : A -> R t tp hp A ti tp s thc Tm: mt phn t x0 thuc A sao cho f(x0) f(x) vi mi x thuc A ("cc tiu ha") hoc sao cho f(x0) f(x) vi mi x thuc A ("cc i ha"). Mt pht biu bi ton nh vt i khi c gi l mt quy hoch ton hc (mathematical programming). Nhiu bi ton thc t v l thuyt c th c m hnh theo cch tng qut trn. Min xc nh A ca hm f c gi l khng gian tm kim. Thng thng, A l mt tp con ca khng gian Euclid Rn, thng c xc nh bi mt tp cc rng buc, cc ng thc hay bt ng thc m cc thnh vin ca A phi tha mn. Cc phn t ca A c gi l cc li gii kh thi. Hm f c gi l hm mc tiu, hoc hm chi ph. Li gii kh thi no cc tiu ha (hoc cc i ha, nu l mc ch) hm mc tiu c gi l li gii ti u. Thng thng, s c mt vi cc tiu a phng v cc i a phng, trong mt cc tiu a phng x* c nh ngha l mt im tha mn iu kin: vi gi tr > 0 no v vi mi gi tr x sao cho

X - X * d cng thc sau lun ng


f(X*) f(X)

(2. 1) (2. 2)

Ngha l, ti vng xung quanh x*, mi gi tr ca hm u ln hn hoc bng gi tr ti im . Cc i a phng c nh ngha tng t. Thng thng, vic tm cc tiu a phng l d dng. Cn thm cc thng tin v bi ton (chng hn, hm mc tiu l hm li) m bo rng li gii tm c l cc tiu ton cc. Cc lnh vc con chnh ca ti u ha bao gm: quy hoch tuyn tnh, quy hoch phi tuyn, quy hoch lm, quy hoch li.. 1.1. Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh (linear programming) M hnh ton hc ca bi ton QHTT tng qut c th vit nh sau:
Hm mc tiu:

f ( x1 ,..., x2 ) = c j x j max(min)
j =1

(2. 3)

vi cc rng buc (iu kin):

a x
j =1 n ij

= bi , (i I1 ) bi , (i I 2 )

(2. 4)

a x
j =1 ij

(2. 5)

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

a x
j =1 ij

bi , (i I 3 )
xj l cc s thc

(2. 6)

Trong : I1, I2, I3 l tp cc ch s (I1, I2, I3 khng giao nhau), aij, bi, cj vi l cc hng s (c th l tham s), n l s bin s. xj vi l cc bin s (n s) ca bi ton. Mt s khi nim: (1) Mt nhm rng buc c h vc t tng ng c lp tuyn tnh c gi l cc rng buc c lp tuyn tnh. Cc rng buc du lun l c lp tuyn tnh. (2) Phng n: Mt vc t x = (x1,x2,,xn) tho mn h rng buc ca bi ton gi l mt phng n ca bi ton. phn bit tnh cht ca cc rng buc (c rng buc du) i vi mt phng n c th, ngi ta a ra khi nim rng buc cht v rng buc lng. + Nu i vi phng n x m rng buc i tho mn vi du ng thc (2.4) hoc xi = 0 (nu l rng buc du) th phng n x tho mn cht rng buc i hay rng buc i l cht i vi phng n x. + Nu i vi phng n x m rng buc i tho mn vi du bt ng thc (2.5), (2.6) hoc xi > 0, xi < 0 (tu thuc rng buc loi g) th phng n x tho mn lng rng buc i hay rng buc i l lng i vi phng n x. Rng buc i c dng phng trnh th n s l cht vi mi phng n ca bi ton, nu c dng bt phng trnh th n c th l cht i vi phng n ny v l lng i vi phng n kia. (3) Phng n ti u (phong n tt nht): Mt phng n m ti tr s hm mc tiu t cc tiu (hoc cc i) gi l phng n t u. (4) Phong n tt hn: Xt bi ton c f(x) min (max) v hai phng n x1, x2 ca n. Phng n x1 gi l tt hn phng n x2 nu f(x1) f (x2) (hay f(x1) f(x2). Nu c cc du bt ng thc thc s th gi l tt hn thc s. Mt bi ton c tn ti phng n ti u gi l bi ton gii c v ngc li nu khng c phng n ti u gi l bi ton khng gii c. Bi ton khng gii c l do mt trong hai nguyn nhn sau: + Bi ton khng c phng n + Bi ton c phng n, nhng hm mc tiu khng b chn di khi tm min f(x) hoc khng b chn trn nu khi tm max f(x) trn tp phng n. (5) Phng n cc bin (PACB): Mt phng n tho mn cht n rng buc c lp tuyn tnh c gi l phng n cc bin.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Mt bi ton c s rng buc (k c rng buc du nu c) t hn n th chc chn s khng c phng n cc bin d n c phng n. Phng n cc bin tho mn cht ng n rng buc gi l phng n cc bin khng suy bin, tho mn cht hn n rng buc gi l phng n cc bin suy bin. Nu tt c cc phng n cc bin ca bi ton u khng suy bin th gi l bi ton khng suy bin, ngc li l bi ton suy bin. 1.1.1.Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh dng chnh tc Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh dng chnh tc c cc rng buc dng phng trnh v cc rng buc v du dng bt phng trnh theo dng sau.
Tm max (hoc min) ca hm f(x) = c1x1 + c2x2 + ..+ cnxn (2. 7)

Tha mn cc rng buc a11x1 + a12x2 + ..+ a1nxn = b1 xj 0 ; j= 1..n

Nu cc rng buc phng trnh tr thnh rng buc bt phng trnh th bi ton c gi l bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh dng chun. 1.1.2.Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh m rng Mt lp cc bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh m rng nh bi ton u t, bi ton lp k hoch sn xut hay bi ton vn ti c pht biu theo dng sau: 1.1.2.1.Bi ton khu phn thc n Ngi ta cn c mt lng (ti thiu) cht dinh dng i=1,2,..,m do cc thc n j=1,2,...,n cung cp. Gi : aij l s lng cht dinh dng loi i c trong 1 n v thc n loi j. (i=1,2,...,m) v (j=1,2,..., n) bi l nhu cu ti thiu v loi dinh dng i cj l gi mua mt n v thc n loi j Vn t ra l phi mua cc loi thc n nh th no tng chi ph b ra l t nht m vn p ng c yu cu v dinh dng. Vn ny c gii quyt theo m hnh sau y : Gi xj 0 (j= 1,2,...,n) l s lng thc n th j cn mua . Tng chi ph cho vic mua thc n l :
z=

c x
j =1 j

= c1x1 + c2x2 +..+ cnxn

(2. 8)

V chi ph b ra mua thc n phi l thp nht nn yu cu (2.9) cn c tha mn

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Tm min z = c1x1 + c2x2 +..+ cnxn

(2. 9)

Lng dinh dng i thu c t thc n 1 l : ai1x1 Lng dinh dng i thu c t thc n 2 l : ai2x2 ......................................................... Lng dinh dng i thu c t thc n n l : ainxn Vy lng dinh dng th i thu c t cc loi thc n l : ai1x1+ai2x2+...+ainxn (i=1 ->m)

(i=1 -> m)

V lng dinh dng th i thu c phi tha yu cu bi v dinh dng loi nn c rng buc sau : ai1x1+ai2x2+...+ainxn bi (i=1 ->m) Tm li, bi ton dn n m hnh ton sau y : Tm min z = c1x1 + c2x2 + ..+ cnxn Tha mn cc rng buc a11x1 + a12x2 + ..+ a1nxn b1 a21x1 + a22x2 + ..+ a1nxn b2

am1x1 + am2x2 + ..+ amnxn bm xj 0 ; j= 1..n 1.1.2.2.Bi ton lp k hoch sn xut T m loi nguyn liu hin c ngi ta mun sn xut n loi sn phm. Gi : aij l lng nguyn liu loi i dng sn xut 1 sn phm loi j. (i=1,2,...,m) v (j=1,2,..., n) bi l s lng nguyn liu loi i hin c cj l li nhun thu c t vic bn mt n v sn phm loi j Vn t ra l phi sn xut mi loi sn phm l bao nhiu sao cho tng li nhun thu c t vic bn cc sn phm ln nht trong iu kin nguyn liu hin c. Gi xj 0 l s lng sn phm th j s sn xut (j=1,2,...,n).Tng li nhun thu c t vic bn cc sn phm l: Z = c1x1 + c2x2 + ..+ cnxn V yu cu li nhun thu c cao nht nn cn tm max hm mc tiu ngha l: Max z= c1x1 + c2x2 + ..+ cnxn Lng nguyn liu th i=1->m dng sn xut sn phm th 1 l ai1x1

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Lng nguyn liu th i=1->m dng sn xut sn phm th 2 l ai2x2 ............................................... Lng nguyn liu th i=1->m dng sn xut sn phm th n l ainxn Vy lng nguyn liu th i dng sn xut tt c cc sn phm l ai1x1+ai2x2+...+ainxn V lng nguyn liu th i=1->m dng sn xut cc loi sn phm khng th vt qu lng c cung cp l bi nn : ai1x1+ai2x2+...+ainxn bi (i=1,2,...,m)

Vy theo yu cu ca bi ton, xy dng c m hnh sau y: Tm max z = c1x1 + c2x2 + ..+ cnxn Tha mn cc rng buc a11x1 + a12x2 + ..+ a1nxn b1 a21x1 + a22x2 + ..+ a2nxn b2 ........ am1x1 + am2x2 + ..+ amnxn bn xj 0 (j= 1,2, .., n)

1.1.2.3.Bi ton vn ti Ngi ta cn vn chuyn hng ho t m kho n n ca hng bn l. Lng hng ho kho i l si (i=1,2,...,m) v nhu cu hng ho ca ca hng j l dj (j=1,2,...,n). Cc vn chuyn mt n v hng ho t kho i n ca hng j l cij (j=1,2,...,n). Cc vn chyn mt n v hng ho t kho i n ca hng j l cij 0. Gi s tng hng ha c cc kho v tng nhu cu hng ha c cc ca hng l bng nhau (cn bng thu pht), tc l:

Si = d j
i =1 j =1

(2. 10)

Trng hp khng cn bng thu pht th ngi ta to ra mt ct thu (pht) gi c cc vn chuyn t cc kho i n ca hng thu gi j bng khng. Bi ton t ra l lp k hoch vn chuyn tin cc l nh nht, vi iu kin l mi ca hng u nhn hng v mi kho u trao ht hng. Gi xij 0 l lng hng ho phi vn chuyn t kho i n ca hng j. Cc vn chuyn chuyn hng ho i n tt c cc kho j l:

c x
j =1 m

ij ij

(2. 11)

Cc vn chuyn tt c hng ho n tt c kho s l :


z=

c x
i =1 j =1

ij ij

(2. 12)

Cn c vo yu cu ca bi ton, xy dng c m hnh ton sau:


Tm min z=

c x
i =1 j =1

ij ij

(2. 13)

Tha mn cc rng buc:

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x =d
i =1 ij

(j= 1,2,..,n)

Xij 0 (i=1,2,..,m) (j=1,2,..,n)

1.2. Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn (nonlinear programming) Bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn, khc vi bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh, l mt lp cc bi ton ti u m cc hm s c mt trong bi ton khng nht thit l tuyn tnh. V c bn c th pht biu bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn nh sau: cho trc cc hm s f, g1,..., gm ca n biu thc, hy xc nh vect n chiu x = (x1, x2, ..., xn) tho mn cc iu kin xj 0, j = 1, 2, ..., n. gi(x) 0, i = 1, 2, ..., m. v t cc tiu ton cc ca hm mc tiu f(x). Cn ch rng, v nguyn tc mi bi ton Quy hoch phi tuyn nh phng php hm pht c th a v mt dy cc bi ton cc tr khng iu kin. Tuy nhin, trong trng hp ny thng cc bi ton ph l nhng bi ton nhiu cc tr v vic gii chng gp rt nhiu kh khn. Trong thc t kinh t v k hoch sn xut (ni ring, trong cc vn phn b) thng gp mt cch c h thng cc bi ton m trong cc rng buc l tuyn tnh, cn hm cn lm cc i l li (hm cn lm cc tiu l lm). gii bi ton nhiu cc tr ny c cc phng php c bit s dng s kin l vect ti u cho mi bi ton y trng mt trong cc nh ca a din rng buc.

2. QUY TRNH GII BI TON TI U TRONG EXCEL


2.1 M t bi ton gii thnh cng cc bi ton ti u, bc u tin v quan trng nht l m t bi ton. Trong bc ny cn xc nh c cc bin quyt nh, hm mc tiu v cc rng buc. Thng thng, ngoi cc rng buc khng m, i khi l cc rng buc cc bin quyt nh ch nhn gi tr nguyn hay gi tr nh phn, cn c cc rng buc hn ch v nng lc sn xut, v d tr nguyn vt liu..Cc kin thc chuyn ngnh nh marketing, qun tr sn xut hay kinh t s gip cho ngi lp bi ton m t thnh cng cc rng buc ca bi ton. Trong bi ton k hoch sn xut, cc bin quyt nh l sn lng mi loi hng ha cn c sn xut. Cc rng buc l gii hn v nguyn vt liu v rng buc v du ca cc bin quyt nh. Hm mc tiu l li nhun ca k hoch sn xut. Trong bi ton vn ti, hm mc tiu l tng cc ph vn ti ca phng n. Cc bin quyt nh l lng hng vn chuyn t Si n dj. Cc rng buc l tng lng hng c kho i v toognr lng hng nhp v ca hng j. Ngoi ra cn c rng buc v du ca cc bin quyt nh. Ty tng trng hp c th xc nh cc bin quyt inh, xy dng hm mc tiu v cc rng buc. Ch c m t ng bi ton mi c th hy vng tm c li gii ng cho bi

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ton. 2.2 Cc bc tin hnh gii bi ton ti u trong Excel 2.2.1 Ci thm trnh Solver gii bi ton ti u trong Excel Trnh ci thm (add-ins) Solver thng c mt trong gi phn mm MS Office khi ci t vi la chn complete (ci ) hoc khi la chn ci t custom (theo ngi s dng) vi la chn cho Excel l run all from my computer (ci t Excel vi y cc thnh phn). ci thm Solver, truy cp menu Tools/ add-ins, chn Solver add-in trong ca s add-ins nh hnh 2.1. Nhn OK hon tt vic b sung Solver add-in. Trng hp khng thy Solver add-in trong hp thoi hnh 2.1 ngha l MS Office ci t cha , cn tin hnh ci t li MS Office nh trnh by trong mc 2.1 chng 1. Trnh ci thm Solver ca Excel cho php gii c cc bi ton ti u bao gm c quy hoch tuyn tnh, quy hoch phi tuyn, quy hoch nguyn vi s bin s ti a l 200 v s ln lp ti a l 32767 (ngm nh l 100 ln) v thi gian ti a gii bi ton 32767 giy (ngm nh l 100 giy). Solver s dng thut ton gim gradient (Generalized Reduced Gradient - GRG2) cho cc bi ton ti u ha phi tuyn (nonlinear optimization) do Leon Lasdon, University of Texas, Austin, v Allan Waren, Cleveland State University xy dng. Phng php tm kim cc tr ca Solver l phng php Newton v phng php gradient (conjugate). y Solver coi bi ton ti u tuyn tnh l trng hp ring ca bi ton ti u phi tuyn.

H.2. 1 Hp thoi add-ins ci thm trnh Solver

2.2.2 Xy dng bi ton trong Excel Sau bc m t bi ton v chun b cng c Solver add-ins, cn tin hnh xy dng bi ton trong Excel. Quy trnh xy dng bi ton ti u trong Excel bao gm cc cng vic sau: - To mt b nhn bao gm: hm mc tiu, tn cc bin quyt nh, cc rng buc. B nhn ny c tc dng gip c kt qu d dng trong Excel. - Gn cho cc bin quyt nh mt gi tr khi u bt k. C th chn gi tr khi u bng khng.

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- Xy dng hm mc tiu. - Xy dng cc rng buc. - Truy cp menu Tools/Solver. Xut hin ca s Solver paramaters nh hnh 2.2. Nhp cc tham s cho trnh Solver v chn solve. - Phn tch cc kt qu ca bi ton.

H.2. 2 Hp thoi Solver parameters nhp cc tham s cho bi ton ti u

Cc thut ng trong hp thoi Solver parameters trnh by trong bng 2.1. Cc la chn v ngha cc nt lnh trong hp thoi Solver Options c trnh by trong bng 2.2
Bng 2. 1 ngha cc nt lnh trong hp thoi Solver parameters

Thut ng Set taret cell Equal to max Equal to min Equal to value of By changing cells Subject to the constrains

ngha cha hm mc tiu ( ch) Chn mc ny khi cn tm max ca hm mc tiu Chn mc ny khi cn tm min ca hm mc tiu Chn mc ny v nhp gi tr vo hnh ch nht bn cnh nu mun ch bng mt gi tr nht nh. Chn cc cha cc bin ca bi ton Mc ny dng nhp cc rng buc ca bi ton Hin th hp thoi Add constraint thm cc rng buc Hin th hp thoi Change Constraint thay i rng buc xa rng buc chn on cc gi tr trong cc khng cha cng thc do cng thc trong ch (target cell) tr n. Thc hin vic gii bi ton ng hp thoi Solver parameters m khng tin hnh gii bi ton Hin th hp thoi Solver options ghi m hnh bi ton, np li m hnh ghi hoc nhp cc la chn khc cho vic gii bi ton Xa cc thit lp cho bi ton hin ti v khi phc cc thit lp ngm nh Hin th tr gip cho Solver

2.2.3 V d 2.1: Gii bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh sau dng Solver

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Tm max f(x) = 8x1 + 6x2 Tha mn cc rng buc 4x1 + 2x2 60 2x1 + 4x2 48 x1, x2 0 Bc 1: B tr d liu trong bng tnh Excel nh hnh 2.3.

H.2. 3 B tr d liu trong bng tnh cho v d 1

Bc 2. Tin hnh gii bi ton Chuyn con tr n $D$4. Truy cp menu Tools/ Solver; xut hin hp thoi Solver parameters. Mc Equal to chn Max nu lm cc i hm mc tiu, chn Min nu lm cc tiu hm mc tiu. Mc by changing cells chn cc cha cc bin ca bi ton, trong v d ny l khi $B$3: $C$3 nh hnh 2.4.

H.2. 4 Nhp cc tham s cho Solver

Nhn nt add nhp rng buc. Hp thoi add constraint xut hin nh trong hnh 2.5.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Nhp rng buc ca bi ton.( Trong hnh 2.4 dng u tin ca mc Subject to the constraints l cc rng buc khng m trn cc bin. Dng tip sau l hai phng trnh rng buc). Trong hnh 2.5 hp Cell Reference chn cc cn t rng buc ln chng. Hp gia chn loi rng buc. C cc loi rng buc nh >=, <=, =, integer (s nguyn), binary (s nh phn, ch nhn gi tr 0 hay 1). Kt thc vic nhp rng buc bng nt OK. Sau khi kt thc nhp rng buc, hp thoi Solver parameters xut hin tr li nh hnh 2.4. Nhn nt options hin th Solver option nh hnh 2.6. Chn mc Assum Linear Model.

H.2. 5 Hp thoi nhp rng buc

Nhn OK tr li mn hnh 2.4 v chn Solve gii bi ton. Hp thoi Solver Results xut hin nh trong hnh 2.7. Kt qu gii bi ton khi chn Keep Solver Solution t hnh 2.7 nm trong cc $D$4:$C$4 v gi tr hm mc tiu nm trong $D$4 nh trong hnh 2.8. Kt qu l phng n ti u l X= (12; 6) v gi tr hm mc tiu f(x) = 132.

H.2. 6 Hp thoi Solver options nhp cc ty chn

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H.2. 7 La chn cch hin th kt qu khi gii bi ton ti u

Trng hp chn Restore Original Values, cc gi trong bng tnh c a tr li gi tr ban u nh hnh 2.3. Kt hp vi Report Answer s cho kt qu sang mt trang bng tnh (sheet) ring vi cc tham s nh hnh 2.9. Trong kt qu t hnh 2.9, gi tr Slack ng vi cc rng buc cho thy cc ngun lc cn cha s dng ht khi ly v phi ca rng buc tr i gi tr cc bin quyt nh nhn vi h s tng ng ca rng buc . Gi tr Surplus ng vi cc rng buc mang du cho thy ngun lc b vt qu ti im cho. 2.2.4. V d 2.2 Mt cng ty sn xut 3 loi sn phm k hiu ln lt l SP1, SP2, SP3 bng cch lp rp t cc chi tit tiu chun ha k hiu CT1, CT2, CT3, CT4, CT5. S lng mi chi tit trong tng sn phm, s lng d tr ca tng loi chi tit v li nhun n v ca tng loi sn phm cho trong bng 2.2. Gi s th trng c kh nng tiu th ht s sn phm c sn xut. Hy tm phng n sn xut ti a ha li nhun. Li nhun ng vi phng n bng bao nhiu?
Bng 2. 2 d kin bi ton trong v d 2

Tn chi tit

Lng d tr

CT1 450 CT2 250 CT3 800 CT4 450 CT5 600 Li nhun n v (USD/sp)

S lng chi tit trong mi sn phm SP1 SP2 SP3 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 75 50 35

H.2. 8 Hin th kt qu gii bi ton trongv d 1 khi la chn keep solution

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H.2. 9 Hin th kt qu gii bi ton trong v d 1 khi chn Report Answer

Bc 1: M t bi ton. Cc bin quyt nh trong trng hp ny l sn lng mi loi sn phm, k hiu x1, x2, x3 (iu kin x1, x2, x3 khng m v l s nguyn). Hm mc tiu l tm max tng li nhun c dng: MAX Z= 75 X1 + 50X2 + 35 X3. Cc rng buc ngoi rng buc v du ca cc bin quyt nh cn c rng buc v s lng chi tit s dng sn xut sn phm khng c vt qu s chi tit d tr ca mi loi. Ngha l: X1 + X2 450 X2 250 2X1 + 2X2 + X3 800 X1 + X2 450 (s lng d tr ca chi tit CT4) 2X1 + X2 + X3 600 Bc 2: B tr d liu trong bng tnh Excel D liu c b tr trong bng tnh Excel nh trong hnh 2.10. Nhp cc rng buc ca bi ton nh trong hnh 2.11. Ch chn option v chn mc Assume Linear Modle v mc Assume non Negative.Kt qu gii bi ton khi chn Keep nh trong hnh 2.12. Nh c th thy t hnh 2.12, phng n sn xut ti u nm trong $C$3:$E$3 v phng n l X = (200; 200; 0). Li nhun ng vi phng n sn xut ti u nm trong $F$11 vi gi tr l 250000 (USD). Vng $F$4:$F$8 cho thy phng n sn xut chn vn cn d ngun lc. l cn li 50 CT1, 50 CT2 v 50 CT4 cha dng n.

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H.2. 10 B tr d liu trong bng tnh cho v d 2

H.2. 11 Nhp rng buc cho v d 2

H.2. 12 Hin th kt qu ca v d 2

2.2.5. V d 2.3: V d sau trnh by bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn vi cc rng buc l cc phng trnh tuyn tnh (nonlinear programming with linear in constraints). Tm min f(x) = -x12 + 2x1 x22 + 4x2 x32 + 8x3 x42 + 14x4 x52 + 18x5 -180 Tha mn cc rng buc sau:

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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-x1 -2x2 + x3 + 2x4 + 3x5 85 -7x1 + 9x2 -5x3 + 33x4 -11x5 500 2x1 x2 + 2x3 x4 + 2x5 150 1.3 x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 300 x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 300 x1, x2 , x3, x4, x5 0 i vi bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn cn b chn Assume Linear Model trong mc Option. Cch chun b bi ton trong Excel nh trong hnh 2.13. y chn phng n xut pht l X(50, 50, 50, 50, 50).

H.2. 13 chun b bi ton cho v d 3

Kt qu gii bi ton khi chn keep solution result nh trong hnh 2.14. Phng n ti u l X(0, 190, 0, 0, 110) v gi tr hm mc tiu l -45640.

H.2. 14 Kt qu gii bi ton trong v d 3

2.3 ngha cc la chn ca Solver Khi chn Options trong hp thoi Solver Parameters, Solver cho php chn mt s ty chn tin hnh gii bi ton nh thi gian gii bi ton, s ln lp, chnh xc ca kt qu, thut ton tm ti u.. . Bng 2.3 trnh by ngha ca cc la chn ny.

Bng 2. 3 ngha cc nt trong hp thoi Solver option

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Ty chn

ngha Thi gian gii bi ton. Ngm nh l 100 s. Gi tr ti a l 32767 s S ln lp. Ngm nh l 100. S ln lp ti a l 32767 chnh xc. Gi tr ny lun nm trong khong [0,1] iu chnh sai s cho cc rng buc. Gi tr cng gn 0 cng i hi chnh xc cao ca cc rng buc Gi tr ny tnh bng (%) v c tc dng i vi cc bi ton c rng buc nguyn. Gi tr la chn cng ln th bi ton cng gii nhanh Mc hi t ca hm mc tiu. Gi tr ny nm trong khong [0, 1]. La chn ny ch c ngha i vi bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn. Sau 5 ln lp cui cng, nu thay i trong cha hm mc tiu nh hn gi tr ny th Solver dng qu trnh tnh ton.Gi tr ny cng nh th thi gian tnh ton cng di. Gi thit m hnh tuyn tnh. Chn mc ny i vi bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh. Gi thit cc bin khng m. Chn mc ny khi c rng buc v du ca cc bin. Chn mc ny khi gi tr u vo v kt qu c ln khc nhau. V d tm ti a ha li nhun khi u t tnh bng triu dolla Chn mc ny khi mun Solver hin th cc kt qu trung gian ca mi bc lp. Ch th cho Solver cch c lng gi tr theo mt phng tm kim. Tangent: Ngoi suy s dng xp x bc nht. Quadratic: Ngoi suy s dng xp x bc hai. La chn ny cho chnh xc cao hn i vi cc bi ton quy hoh phi tuyn Ch th cho Solver cch tnh o hm ring phn cho hm mc tiu v cc hm rng buc. Forward dng khi gi tr ca cc rng buc thay i chm Central dng khi cc rng buc bin i nhanh v khi Solver bo khng th ci tin kt qu thu c. Ch th cho Solver s dng thut ton no tm kim gi tr ti u. Thut ton Newton s dng nhiu b nh nhng t s ln lp Thut ton Conjugate: s dng t b nh nhng s ln lp nhiu hn. p dng vi cc bi ton ln. Hin th hp thoi Load modle xc nh vng a ch ca m hnh bi ton cn np vo. Chn ni lu m hnh bi ton. S dng khi mun lu nhiu m hnh trn mt worksheet.

2.4 Mt s thng bo li thng gp ca Solver Trong mt s trng hp Solver khng th gii c bi ton, khi c cc thng bo sau: Solver could not find feasible solution: bi ton khng c li gii chp nhn c hoc cc gi tr khi u ca cc cha bin s qu xa cc gi tr ti u. C th thay i gi tr khi u gii li bi ton.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) The maximum iteration was reached, continue anyway? S bc lp t n gi tr la chn trong mc options m cha tm c ti u. C th tng s bc lp trong Solver options gii bi ton. The maximum time limit was reached, continue anyway? Thi gian chy vt qu gi tr la chn trong mc options m cha tm c ti u. C th tng thi gian trong Solver options gii bi ton. 2.5 Phn tch nhy ca bi ton Mi trng kinh doanh thng l bt nh l rt kh lng v c rt nhiu yu t thay i nh lut l, s bin ng kinh t, nhng thay i ca cc nh cung cp..Cc nh qun l thng phi i mt vi nhng thay i nh vy khi ra quyt nh. Cc nh qun l thng s dng cc m hnh ton hc ra quyt nh. Cc m hnh ny khng th trnh khi c nhng yu t bt nh hoc thay i cc giai on khc nhau nhng khi lp m hnh ngi ta gi thit rng cc yu t ny xc nh v khng bin i. Phn tch nhy l mt tp hp cc hot ng sau khi gii bi ton nhm nghin cu xem li gii ca bi ton thay i nh th no khi cc yu t ca m hnh thay i. Phn tch ny cn c gi l phn tch n nh ca li gii hay phn tch what-if, m hnh ha tnh hung, phn tch s bin ng, phn tch s bt nh S bt nh trong cc m hnh c th c ngun gc khc nhau nh thng tin khng y , s bin ng ca yu t u vo hoc s thay i khng d on c trong tng lai. Mt s tnh hung in hnh bao gm: Phn tch tnh hung: Trng hp ny ngi ta gi nh nhng s kt hp c th ca nhng tham s bt nh v gii bi ton cho tng trng hp. Bng cch gii quyt cc tnh hung khc nhau v nghin cu li gii thu c, ngi ta quan st nhy v ra quyt nh. Phn tch tnh hung xu nht: K thut ny phn tch cc tnh hung cn bin ngay t giai on lp k hoch. Tip cn Monte-Carlo: cch tip cn ny gi thit rng s bt nh ca cc m hnh c xc nh nh cc hm phn phi thng k ca chng. Nhn chung cc cch tip cn trn u nhm tm xem s thay i theo cc hng ca cc tham s nh hng nh th no n gi tr ti u. Ni cch khc, khi no th gi tr ti u thay i khi thay i gi tr ca cc tham s. Solver cung cp mt cng c phn tch nhy. Ty chn ny nhn c khi chn Sensityvity v Limits trong Report t hnh 2.7. Ty chn Sensitivity cho thy li gii thay i th no khi c s thay i nh ch v cc cha rng buc. Nu c rng buc l s nguyn th khng sinh ra ty chn ny. i vi cc bi ton quy hoch phi tuyn, Sensitivity Report cho gi tr gim gradient v nhn t Lagrange. i vi bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh, ty chn ny cho cc thng tin v shadow price (l s thay i gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu khi v phi ca rng buc tng mt n v), cc h s ca hm mc tiu (thng tin v mc tng gim cho php) v phm vi bin ng ca v phi cc rng buc. Ty chn Limits lit k cc gi tr ca ch ( cha hm mc tiu) v cc cha bin quyt nh (adjustable cells)

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) cng vi gi tr gii hn trn v gi tr gii hn di ca chng. Gi tr gii hn trn (upper) l gi tr ln nht m mt bin quyt nh c th nhn trong khi gia nguyn gi tr ca cc bin khc m vn tha mn cc rng buc. Gi tr gii hn di (lower) l gi tr nh nht m mt bin c th nhn. Solver khng pht sinh Report Limits khi c rng buc l s nguyn. Hnh 2.15 trnh by Sensitivity Report v hnh 2.16 trnh by Limits Report cho v d 2. Nh c th thy t hnh 2.15. H s th nht ca hm mc tiu (ng vi x1) l 8 v c th tng thm 4 hoc gim 5 trong khi gi nguyn cc gi tr khc m khng lm thay i cc rng buc (k c gi tr hm mc tiu v cc bin x1, x2). Rng buc 1 c gi tr v phi (RHS) l 60 v c th tng 36 hay gim 36 khng lm thay i cc rng buc khc ng thi vn tha mn iu kin ti u ca bi ton. c gi c th th li vi gi tr ny thy nhy ca bi ton. Gi tr Reduced Cost cho thy cc h s ca hm mc tiu phi tng thm trc khi cc bin quyt nh t c gi tr khng m trong li gii ti u.

H.2. 15 Phn tch nhy ca bi ton trong v d 2

H.2. 16 Gii hn cc cha bin quyt nh trong v d 2

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

3. GII H PHNG TRNH TUYN TNH


George Dantzig chng minh rng, bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh v l thuyt c th coi l bi ton gii h bt phng trnh tuyn tnh. V vy, c th s dng Solver gii cc h phng trnh tuyn tnh mt cch tin li. Gii cc h phng trnh tuyn tnh c ng dng trong kinh t tm im ha vn, tm sn lng hoc gi c lm cn bng cung cu.. Khi s dng Solver gii h phng trnh th khng cn hm mc tiu. Cng c th coi mt trong s cc phng trnh ca h l hm mc tiu vi target cell c nhp vo gi tr value of. Cc phng trnh cn li ca h c coi l cc rng buc. Khi s dng cc gi phn mm quy hoch tuyn tnh khc gii h phng trnh th c th to ra mt hm mc tiu gi. Ngoi ra c th vit h phng trnh tuyn tnh thnh dng ma trn AX = B khi X= A-1B. S dng hm MINVERSE(array) tnh ma trn A-1 v hm MMULT(array1, arrray2) thc hin php nhn ma trn. C hai hm ny s dng cng thc mng tr v kt qu l mt dy nh trong chng 1 nu. V d 2.4: Gii h phng trnh tuyn tnh sau 2x1 + 3x2 + x3 = 4 x1 + x2 x3 = 3 2x1 2x2 x3 = 1. Chun b bi ton trong Excel nh hnh 2.17. Nhp rng buc nh trong 2.18. Kt qu gii bi ton nh trong hnh 2.19.

H.2. 17 Gii h phng trnh tuyn tnh bng Solver

H.2. 18 in cc tham s cho Solver gii h phng trnh

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H.2. 19 Kt qu gii h phng trnh dng Solver

Nh c th thy t hnh 2.19. Kt qu gii h phng trnh l x1 = 1, x2 = 1 v x3 = -1. Ch b chn Assume non-negative trong Solver Options khi gii h phng trnh bng Solver. c gi t thc hin bi gii h phng trnh bng MINVERSE v MMULT nh l mt bi tp thc hnh.

BI TP CHNG 2
Bi 2.1 Tm min f(x) = -x1 2x2 + 0.5x12 + 0.5 x22. Tha mn cc rng buc 2x1 + 3x2 + x3 = 6 x1 + 4x2 + x4 = 5 x1, x2, x3 , x4 0 Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 1. Bi 2.2. C 4 phn xng sn xut k hiu PX1, PX2, PX3, PX4, cn sn xut 4 loi sn phm k hiu SP1, SP2, SP3, SP4. Chi phi sn xut sn phm i xng j nh bng sau (vt 1000 ) : SP1 100 200 400 300 SP2 4000 3500 2000 5000 SP3 800 750 700 600 SP4 550 500 400 450

PX1 PX2 PX3 PX4

Hy phn cng cho mi n v sn xut mt loi sn phm sao cho tng chi ph l nh nht. Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 2. Bi 2.3. Ba sn phm A, B, C c lp rp t cc module tiu chun ha k hiu CT1, CT2, CT3, CT4, CT5. S lng module dng cho mi loi sn phm v li nhun thu c nu bn mi sn phm, s lng cc module d tr cho trong bng sau

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Tn module CT1 CT2 CT3 CT4 CT5 Li nhun n v ($)

A 1 1 2 1 2 75

B 1 0 2 1 1 50

C 0 0 1 0 1 35

d tr (b) 450 250 800 450 600

Hy lp k hoch sn xut t li nhun ti a. Khi cn li nhng module no cha dng ht. Li nhun thu c l bao nhiu. C th tm c phng n sn xut ti u m s dng ht s module khng? Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 3. Bi 2.4. Mt x nghip sn xut hai loi sn phm k hiu SP1 v SP2 bn trn th trng. nng lc sn xut cho php sn xut ti a 500 tn SP1 v ti a 500 tn SP2 mi ngy. C hai sn phm u sn xut t cng mt loi nguyn vt liu. Mi tn sn phm SP1 cn 5 thng NVL v mi tn sn phm SP2 cn 6 thng NVL. Mi ngy x nghip ch c th c ti a 3600 thng NVL. sn xut 1 tn SP1 cn 1 cng nhn v 1 tn SP2 cn 2 cng nhn. Mi ngy x nghip c 960 cng nhn lm vic. Mi tn SP1 c li nhun l 7 (USD) v mi tn SP2 c li nhun l 10 (USD). Hi mi ngy x nghip nn sn xut mi loi sn phm vi s lng bao nhiu ti a ha li nhun. Li nhun ti u trong mt ngy l bao nhiu? Nu li nhun ca sn phm SP2 tng ln thnh 11 (USD) th kt qu bi ton s thay i th no v sn lng sn xut v sn lng ti u? Nu thay i s lng NVL d tr (tng hay gim 1 thng) th li nhun thay i th no? Gi tr ti u thay i th no nu nng lc ti a v sn xut SP2 thay i thnh 1000. Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 4. Bi 2.5 Mt cng ty s hu 4 m c th khai thc vi cht lng khc nhau trong hai ch tiu cht lng ch yu l lng Ca v Mg (tnh bng s biu kin). Cng ty cn sn xut 6000 tn /nm. Yu cu mi tn c hm lng Ca l 0.9 v Mg l 2.3. Bit hm lng Ca v Mg c trong mi tn ca tng m, chi ph khai thc m v tr lng ca mi m nh bng sau: Hi cng ty cn phi khai thc mi m bao nhiu tn tha mn yu cu sn xut. Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 5.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

M M1 M2 M3 M4

Hm lng Ca 1.0 0.7 1.5 0.7

Hm lng Mg 2.3 1.6 1.2 2.1

Kh nng khai thc ti a (tn/nm) 2000 2500 1300 3000

Chi ph duy tr hot ng ca m (triu USD/nm) 3.5 4.0 4.0 2.0

Bi 2.6 Mt cng ty c 2 x nghip sn xut, 4 kho v cn phc v cho 5 khch hng. Cng ty mun gim tng chi ph vn chuyn gm vn chuyn hng ha t x nghip n kho, t x nghip n khch hng v t kho n khch hng. Rng buc rng lng sn phm t x nghip n kho phi bng lng sn phm t kho n khch hng. Mi x nghip c kh nng sn xut 60000 (tn/thng). Chi ph vn chuyn t x nghip n cc kho v kh nng cha ca cc kho nh bng sau: Kho 1 0.5 1.5 45000 Kho 2 0.5 0.3 20000 Kho 3 1.0 0.5 30000 Kho 4 0.2 0.2 15000

X nghip 1 ($/tn) X nghip 2 ($/tn) Kh nng cha (tn)

Chi ph vn chuyn t x nghip n tng khch hng v t kho n tng khch hng, nhu cu ca tng khch hng nh bng sau Khch hng 1 1.75 2.00 1.50 1.00 1.00 2.50 30000 Khch hng 2 2.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 23000 Khch hng 3 1.50 2.50 0.50 0.50 2.00 0.20 15000 Khch hng 4 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.50 32000 Khch hng 5 1.50 1.00 3.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 16000

XN 1 ($/tn) XN 2 ($/tn) Kho 1 ($/tn) Kho 2 ($/tn) Kho 3 ($/tn) Kho 4 ($/tn) Nhu cu (tn)

Hy lp k hoch vn chuyn tng chi ph vn chuyn l nh nht? Kt qu ti u thay i th no nu tng chi ph vn chuyn t kho 1 n khch hng 2 thm 0.1 ($/tn)? Kt qu ti u thay i th no nu gim chi ph vn chuyn t x nghip 2 n khch hng 4 mt lng l 1.2 ($/tn)? Tng chi ph vn ti tng (gim) bao nhiu nu kh nng d tr ca kho 2 tng thm c 10000 tn? Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 6. Bi 2.7. Mt cng ty cng vin cn phi duy tr hot ng ca cng vin vi yu cu s cng lao ng t th hai n ch nht ln lt l 17; 13; 14; 15; 18; 24; 22 cng. Ngi lao ng lm vic 5 ngy v ngh hai ngy bt k trong tun. Cng vin ny quyt nh chia s lao ng thu c thnh 7 kp lm vic k hiu A,.., G. trong kp A gm nhng ngi mun ngh ch nht v th hai, kp B gm nhng ngi mun ngh th hai v th ba, kp C gm nhng ngi mun ngh th 3 v th 4, kp D gm nhng ngi mun ngh th 4 v th 5, kp E gm nhng ngi mun ngh th 5 v th 6, kp F gm nhng ngi mun ngh th 6 v th 7, kp G gm nhng ngi mun ngh th by v ch nht. Cho bit lng cng nhn l $40/ngi/ngy. Hi cn thu tng s bao nhiu cng nhn v phn cng mi kp bao nhiu ngi chi ph l nh nht m tha mn yu cu v s lao ng ca mi ngy ng thi tha mn nguyn vng ca cng nhn? Ghi bi vo th mc va to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 2, bi s 7. Bi 2.8. S dng kt qu ca bi 2.7 vi iu kin m rng nh sau: Mi cng nhn c a ra mt bn kin ngh trong c ghi s thch lm vic ca mnh trong tng kp. S 7 ng vi mc u tin cao nht v 1 ng vi mc u tin thp nht. Kp Cng nhn 1 Cng nhn 2 Cng nhn 3 Cng nhn 4 Cng nhn 5 Cng nhn 6 Cng nhn 7 Cng nhn 8 Cng nhn 9 Cng nhn 10 Cng nhn 11 Cng nhn 12 Cng nhn 13 A 4 3 6 4 5 1 7 4 5 1 6 5 1 B 6 4 5 5 4 2 5 3 4 3 7 4 2 C 5 5 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 6 3 D 3 2 7 6 6 4 1 5 2 5 1 7 4 E 2 1 4 2 7 5 6 6 7 6 3 3 5 F G 7 1 7 6 3 1 7 1 3 1 6 7 4 2 1 7 6 1 7 4 4 5 2 1 6 7 Kp Cng nhn 14 Cng nhn 15 Cng nhn 16 Cng nhn 17 Cng nhn 18 Cng nhn 19 Cng nhn 20 Cng nhn 21 Cng nhn 22 Cng nhn 23 Cng nhn 24 Cng nhn 25 A 4 4 4 6 7 6 4 7 7 6 5 6 B 6 5 3 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 C 7 7 2 7 5 3 3 5 2 7 4 7 D 3 6 5 3 4 4 6 3 5 3 3 5 E 2 3 6 2 3 2 7 4 3 4 1 3 F G 5 1 2 1 7 1 1 4 2 1 7 1 2 1 1 2 4 1 2 1 2 7 2 1

Hy phn mi cng nhn vo tng kp cho thch hp sao cho tha mn mc s thch tng cng ca ton cng ty l cc i. Ghi bi sheet ring cng file vi bi 2.7

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CHNG 3: QUN L TI CHNH 1.KHU HAO TI SN C NH


1.1.Khi nim v ti sn c nh v khu hao ti sn c nh Di gc qun tr kinh doanh, ti sn c nh (TSC) l nhng t liu lao ng tha mn ng thi hai iu kin: C thi hn s dng ln hn mt nm v c gi tr ln hn mt khon tin c quy nh trc. Theo quy nh hin hnh th TSC cn phi c gi tr ln hn 10 triu ng. C nhiu cch phn chia TSC ty theo tiu ch phn chia nh phn chia theo hnh thi biu hin th c TSC hu hnh v TSC v hnh. Phn chia theo quyn s hu th c TSC ca doanh nghip v TSC thu ngoi. Trong qu trnh tham gia vo hot ng sn xut kinh doanh, TSC b gim dn gi tr v gi tr s dng. Hin tng ny gi l hao mn ti sn c nh. Hao mn hu hnh TSC l hin tng gim dn tnh nng k thut ca TSC do cc nguyn nhn nh lc c hc, hoc do nh hng ca mi trng nh n mn in ha, mi mt mc..Hao mn v hnh TSC l hin tng TSC b gim dn gi tr do tin b ca khoa hc k thut v qun l th hin cng mt khon tin c th mua hay sn xut c mt TSC c tnh nng k thut tt hn. Do vy TSC c t nhin b mt gi. Khu hao TSC l bin php nhm chuyn mt phn gi tr ca TSC vo gi thnh sn phm do TSC sn xut ra sau mt thi gian nht nh c tin mua c mt TSC khc tng ng vi TSC c. V bn cht, khu hao TSC chnh l ti sn xut gin n TSC. Khu hao TSC l mt yu t chi ph trong gi thnh sn phm ca doanh nghip nn vic lp k hoch khu hao TSC nm trong ni dung ca cng tc lp k hoch ti chnh ca doanh nghip v c ngha v cng quan trng i vi doanh nghip. tnh ton khu hao TSC cn phi nh ngha mt s khi nim sau: Nguyn gi ca TSC (k hiu Kb) l gi tr thc t ca TSC khi a vo s dng. i vi my mc thit b, nguyn gi bao gm gi mua (hay sn xut) cng vi chi ph vn chuyn v lp t. Gi tr cn li ca TSC (k hiu Kcl) l gi tr thc t ca TSC ti mt thi im xc nh. Gi tr cn li c xc nh cn c vo gi th trng khi nh gi TSC. V phng din k ton, gi tr cn li ca TSC c xc nh bng hiu s gia nguyn gi v gi tr hao mn (hay lng trch khu hao ly k tnh n thi im xc nh). 1.2.Cc phng php tnh khu hao ti sn c nh C hai cch tnh khu hao TSC l khu hao theo thi gian v khu hao theo sn phm. i vi TSC l cc my mc vn nng thng khu hao theo thi gian. i vi TSC l my mc chuyn dng thng khu hao theo sn phm. Khi tnh khu hao TSC theo thi gian, c th tnh theo phng php khu hao u (tuyn

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) tnh), phng php khu hao nhanh hoc kt hp c hai phng php. 1.2.1 Phng php khu hao u. Phng php khu hao u cn c gi l phng php khu hao tuyn tnh hay khu hao theo ng thng. Vi khu hao u, lng trch khu hao hng nm u nhau trong sut khong thi gian tnh khu hao (tui th kinh t ca TSC, k hiu T). Thi gian tnh khu hao l khong thi gian cn thit khu hao ht lng gi tr cn trch khu hao. Lng trch khu hao hng nm c tnh theo cng thc:
i Ckh = Kbd - K dt T

(3. 1)

Trong :

Kbd: Nguyn gi ca TSC Kdt: Gi tr o thi ca TSC. L gi tr thanh l c tnh hay gi tr cn li c tnh sau khi trch khu hao trong thi gian T T: Tui th kinh t ca TSC. L khong thi gian cn thit trch khu hao lng gi tr nh.

Gi tr cn li ca TSC nm th i (k hiu Kcli) tnh theo cng thc:


i K cl = K bd - iCkh

(3. 2)

Phng php khu hao u n gin, d tnh ton. Tuy nhin khu hao theo phng php ny khng phn nh ht c mc hao mn thc t ca TSC.

Gi tr ca TSC

Thi gian s dng TSC


Hnh 3. 1 Gi tr ca TSC theo thi gian khi khu hao u

1.2.2 Cc phng php khu hao nhanh c trng c bn ca cc phng php khu hao nhanh l nhng nm u, khi mi a TSC vo s dng, lng trch khu hao ln. Sau lng trch khu hao gim dn. Vi cc phng php khu hao nhanh, cc nh qun tr mong mun nhanh chng thu hi phn vn u t vo TSC c th i mi TSC. u im ca cc phng php khu hao nhanh l l thu hi vn nhanh, gim bt c tn tht do hao mn v hnh. Ngoi ra, y l mt bin php hon thu trong nhng nm u ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin khu hao nhanh c

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) nhc im l: C th gy nn s t bin v gi thnh sn phm trong nhng nm u do chi ph khu hao ln, s bt li trong cnh tranh. Do vy i vi nhng doanh nghip kinh doanh cha n nh, cha c li th khng nn p dng cc phng php khu hao nhanh. 1.2.2.1 Khu hao theo tng s nn s dng Theo phng php ny, lng trch khu hao nm bt k i c tnh bng hiu s ca nguyn gi v gi tr thi hi c tnh nhn vi mt phn s m t s l thc t ngc ca s nm s dng, mu s l tng t 1 n s nm s dng ca ti sn. C th s dng cng thc sau tnh ton: 2(T - i - 1) i Ckh = ( K bd - K dt ) (3. 3) T (T + 1) Trong : Ckhi: lng trch khu hao nm th i Kbd: Nguyn gi ca TSC Kdt: Gi tr o thi ca TSC T: Tui th kinh t ca TSC i: Nm cn tnh khu hao Gi tr cn li ca TSC nm th i (Kcli) c tnh theo cng thc:
i t K cl = K bd - Ckh t =1 i

(3. 4)

Gi tr ca TSC

Thi gian s dng TSC


Hnh 3. 2 Gi tr ca TSC theo thi gian khi khu hao nhanh

1.2.2.2. Khu hao s d gim dn Lng trch khu hao nm th i c tnh ton bng tch s ca gi tr cn li nhn vi t l trch khu hao r theo cng thc sau:
i t Ckh = ( K bd - Ckh )r t =1 i -1

(3. 5)

Trong l gi l t l trch khu hao v c tnh theo cng thc:

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1 K dt T r = 1- ( ) (3. 6) K bd Ring nm u tin, lng trch khu hao tnh theo cng thc: m 1 Ckh = K bd r (3. 7) 12

Trong m l s thng ca nm u tin. ng thi lng trch khu hao ca nm cui cng c tnh theo cng thc: T -1 12 - m T t (3. 8) Ckh = ( K bd - Ckh )r 12 t =1 Cng thc tnh gi tr cn li ca TSC nm th i tng t nh cng thc tnh gi tr cn li ca phng php khu hao theo tng s nm s dng. 1.2.2.3 Khu hao nhanh vi t l khu hao ty chn Lng trch khu hao nm th i c tnh theo cng thc: i r i t (3. 9) Ckh = ( K bd - K dt - Ckh ) T t =1 Trong r l t l trch khu hao ty chn. Nu r = 2 th phng php ny c gi l phng php bnh qun nhn i. Gi tr cn li ca TSC nm th i tnh nh phng php khu hao s d gim dn. T l khu hao r c s dng cc nc nh sau: r = 1,5 i vi TSC c thi gian s dng t 3 n 4 nm r = 2,0 i vi TSC c thi gian s dng t 5 n 6 nm r = 2,5 i vi TSC c thi gian s dng trn 6 nm 1.2.3 Phng php khu hao kt hp Nhm y nhanh tc thu hi vn, ngi ta s dng phng php khu hao kt hp theo th thc mt s nm u s dng phng php khu hao nhanh, sau chuyn sang phng php khu hao u. Khi s dng phng php kt hp, thi gian thu hi vn thc t ngn hn tui th kinh t d tnh. Thng th khi lng trch khu hao theo phng php khu hao u cho phn gi tr cn li cho nm tip theo ln hn lng trch khu hao theo phng php khu hao nhanh th ngi ta chuyn sang khu hao theo phng php khu hao u. 1.3.Cc hm tnh khu hao ti sn c nh 1.3.1.Hm tnh khu hao u: Trong Excel s dng hm SLN tnh khu hao TSC theo phng php khu hao u. C php nh sau =SLN(cost, salvage, life) Trong : Cost: Nguyn gi ca TSC Salvage: Gi tr thi hi ca TSC

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Life: Tui th kinh t ca TSC V d 3.1: Mt TSC nguyn gi 150 triu ng, d tnh khu hao trong 10 nm. Gi tr o thi c tnh l 10 triu ng. Tnh lng trch khu hao v gi tr cn li ca tng nm theo phng php khu hao u. Chun b d liu trong Excel v cng thc tnh nh trong hnh 3.3

Hnh 3. 3 Tnh khu hao TSC theo phng php khu hao u trong Excel

1.3.2.Hm tnh khu hao theo tng s nm s dng Trong Excel, s dng hm SYD tnh lng trch khu hao TSC theo tng s nm s dng. C php: =SYD(Cost, Salvage, Life, Period) Trong : Period: K tnh khu hao. Cc tham s khc tng t nh hm SLN V d 3.2: S dng cc s liu tng t nh trong v d 1. Yu cu tnh lng trch khu hao v gi tr cn li cho tng nm theo phng php tng s nm s dng Chun b d liu v cng thc tnh nh trong hnh 3.4 1.3.3.Hm tnh khu hao TSC theo phng php s d gim dn Excel s dng hm DB tnh khu hao TSC theo phng php s d gim dn theo c php sau:

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=DB(Cost, Salvage, Life, Period, [Month]) Trong : Month: l s thng nm u tin. Nu b qua tham s ny th Excel t ng gn cho month=12. Ngha l TSC ny c bt u tnh khu hao t thng 1 ca nm u tin. Cc tham s khc tng t nh cc tham s ca hm SYD. Ch : Do c tnh n s thng nm u tin, nn nu nm u tin c s thng l m (m 12) th cn cn thm 12 m thng nm th T+1 mi khu hao ht gi tr d tnh. V d 3.3: s dng cc s liu trong v d 1. Yu cu tnh lng trch khu hao v gi tr cn li cho tng nm theo phng php s d gim dn. Cho bit nm u tin c 5 thng. Hnh 3.5. Trnh by cch nhp d liu vo Excel, cng thc tnh v kt qu ca v d 3.

Hnh 3. 4 Tnh khu hao TSC theo tng s nm trong Excel

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Hnh 3. 5 Tnh khu hao s d gim dn trong Excel

1.3.4.Hm tnh khu hao TSC theo phng php s d gim dn vi t l ty chn Hm DDB tnh lng trch khu hao TSC trong Excel s dng theo c php sau: =DDB(Cost, Salvage, Life, Period, [Factor]) Trong : Factor l t l trch khu hao ty chn. Nu b qua tham s ny th Excel s gn cho factor =2. V d 3.4: S dng cc s liu trong v d 1. Yu cu tnh lng trch khu hao TSC v gi tr cn li cho tng nm theo phng php khu hao s d gim dn vi t l ty chn. Chun b d liu trong Excel v nhp cng thc nh trong hnh 3.6

Hnh 3. 6 Tnh khu hao theo phng php s d gim dn vi t l ty chn trong Excel

1.3.5.Hm tnh khu hao theo phng php kt hp Trong Excel s dng hm VDB tnh khu hao theo phng php kt hp. im khc bit VDB vi cc hm hc l VDB c th tnh khu hao gia hai thi im l thi im bt u v thi im kt thc ca mt khong thi gian nht nh m khng nht thit theo nm. C php ca hm VDB sau: =VDB(Cost, Salvage, Life, Start_period, End_period,[ factor],[ no_switch]) Trong : Cost: Nguyn gi ca TSC. Salvage: Gi tr o thi ca TSC.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Life: Tui th kinh t ca TSC. Start_period: Thi im bt u tnh khu hao. n v ca Start_period phi cng vi n v ca Life. End_period: Thi im kt thc tnh khu hao. n v ca End_period phi cng vi n v ca Life. Factor: T l khu hao. Nu b qua Excel s t gn cho factor=2. No_switch l gi tr logic (nhn TRUE/ FALSE hay 1/0) chn c chuyn sang phng php khu hao u khi lng trch khu hao u ln hn lng trch khu hao tnh theo phng php s d gim dn. Nu No_switch = 1 (hay TRUE) th khng chuyn sang phng php khu hao u. Nu No_switch =0 (hay FALSE) hoc b qua th chuyn sang phng php khu hao u. V d 3.5: Mt TSC nguyn gi 30 triu ng, gi tr o thi c tnh 5 triu ng. Tui th kinh t c tnh l 5 nm. Tnh lng trch khu hao theo phng php s d gim dn t thng th 6 n thng th 18 vi t l trch khu hao nhanh l 1.5. Chun b d liu trong Excel v nhp cng thc tnh nh hnh 3.7. Trong cng thc, tham s th 3 (C5*12) nhm i tui th ca TSC tnh bng nm ra thng v khong thi gian cn tnh khu hao l 12 thng nhng tnh t thng th 6 n thng th 18. cng thc ny cho rng n thi im thch hp th chuyn sang phng php khu hao u.

Hnh 3. 7 Tnh khu hao theo phng php kt hp trong Excel

2. PHN TCH HIU QU VN U T


2.1 Dng tin Dng tin (cash flow) cn c gi l ngn lu. y l mt khi nin quan trng trong phn tch ti chnh cc d n u t. Cc nh kinh t hc u thng nht vi nhau rng tin thay i gi tr theo thi gian do nh hng ca lm pht v li ch tiu dng. V vy, mt im rt quan trng l cc khon tin cc thi im khc nhau khng th so snh vi nhau c. Mun so snh c vi nhau, cn phi quy i cc lng tin ny v cng mt thi im.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) phn tch nh gi cc d n, cn phi phn tch c dng tin. Ngha l phi biu din c cc khon u t, thu nhp v chi ph ca d n ti cc thi im khc nhau ca k phn tch. Thng thng ngi ta c th biu din dng tin theo mt bng hoc theo mt trc s. tin cho biu din dng tin ngi ta thng quy c cc khon thu nhp mang du dng, cc khon u t hay chi ph mang du m. Hnh 3.8 minh ha cch biu din dng tin trn trc s. Trong hnh 3.8, gc 0 c gi l u k gc. Cc thi im 1,2,..to thnh cc khong c gi l k phn tch. Khon tin xut hin ti mi thi im i trong k phn tch c k hiu l Fi. Khi tin hnh tnh ton vi dng tin, ngi ta thng s dng khi nim sut chit khu r (discount rate). n gin,c th gi thit rng tin c gi vo ngn hng vi li sut i thay v s dng khi nim sut chit khu r. Trong phn tch d n u t, ngi ta s dng khi nim li sut n v li sut kp. Li sut n l n k th lnh li. Ngc li, li sut kp l n k th cng li vo gc. 2.1.1 Cng thc quy i dng tin tnh ton i vi dng tin, mt khi nim rt quan trng l s tng ng ca mt khon tin. S tng ng c th minh ha nh sau. quy i mt khon tin hin ti (P) thnh mt khon tin tng lai (F) vi li sut kp (i) khng i trong thi gian n k s dng cng thc sau: F = P (1+i)n
(3. 10)

F1

F2

F3

F5

0 P0

4 F4

Hnh 3. 8 Biu din dng tin trn trc s

rt gn ngi ta s dng k hiu F/P,i%,n (c l tm F bit P, i%,n). Ngc li tnh gi tr hin ti khi bit gi tr tng lai, k hiu P/F, i%, n l cng thc quy i mt khon tin tng lai (F) v thnh mt khon tin hin ti (P) vi li sut kp (i) khng i trong n k.

P=

F (1 + i )n

(3. 11)

Gi tr tng ng tng k A (uniform series hay annuity) l gi tr thanh ton ca khon tin hin ti P hay tng lai F c ri u trong n k c tnh n li sut kp. Quan h gia P, v A nh sau:

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Tnh gi tr hin ti khi bit gi tr tng ng tng k, P/A,i%,n

1 - (1 + i ) P=A i
A=P

-n

(3. 12)

Tnh gi tr tng ng tng k khi bit gi tr hin ti, A/P,i%,n tnh theo cng thc 3.13

i 1 - (1 + i) -n

(3. 13)

Tnh gi tr tng lai khi bit gi tr tng ng tng k, F/A,i%,n

(1 + i) n - 1 F=A i
A=F i (1 + i ) n - 1

(3. 14)

Cng thc tnh gi tr tng ng tng k khi bit gi tr tng lai, A/F, i%, n c suy ra t cng thc 3.14
(3. 15)

2.1.2 Cng thc tnh dng tin trong Excel Cc hm PV, FV, PMT, RATE, NPER trong Excel c k n du ca dng tin. V vy khi s dng cc hm ny cn nh quy c v du ca dng tin. Trong phm vi gio trnh ny quy c cc khon u t hay chi ph mang du m, cc khon thu nhp mang du dng. 2.1.2.1 Hm PV Hm PV trong Excel tnh gi tr hin ti khi bit gi tr tng lai v / hoc gi tr tng ng tng k. l s kt hp ca cng thc 3.11 v 3.12. C php ca hm ny nh sau =PV(rate, nper, pmt,[ fv], [type]) Trong : Rate: li sut mi k Nper: tng s k tnh li Pmt: s tin phi tr u trong mi k, nu b trng th coi l 0 Fv: gi tr tng lai ca khon u t, nu b trng th coi l 0 Type: l hnh thc thanh ton. Nu type = 1 th thanh ton u k (nin kim u k), nu type = 0 th thanh ton vo cui mi k (mc nh). V d 3. 6: nhn c mt khon tin 1000 ($) sau 5 nm na ngay by gi cn phi gi vo ngn hng mt khon tin l bao nhiu bit li sut ngn hng l 4.5%/nm v khng i trong sut thi gian tnh ton. B qua tc ng ca lm pht. S dng phng php nin kim u k. Hnh 3.9 trnh by cch tnh gi tr hin ti khi s dng hm PV v khi tnh th cng theo cng thc 3.11. Nh c th thy t hnh 3.9, Khi li sut khng i l 4.5%/nm th s dng hm v tnh th cng cho cng kt qu l $802.45.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

2.1.2.2 Hm FV Hm FV tnh gi tr tng lai khi bit gi tr hin ti hoc / v gi tr tng ng tng k bng cch kt hp cng thc 3.10 v 3.14. C php ca hm ny nh sau: =FV(rate, nper, pmt,[pv],[ type]) Trong : pv l gi tr hin ti. Cc tham s khc tng t nh hm PV.

Hnh 3. 9 Tnh gi tr hin ti ca dng tin khi bit gi tr tng lai

V d 3.7: Mt ngi c mi nm gi vo ngn hng mt khon tin l $100. Hi sau 5 nm ngi c khon tin l bao nhiu c li v gc bit li sut khng thay i trong thi gian tnh ton l 4.5%/nm. B qua lm pht. S dng phng php nin kim cui k. Hnh 3.10 trnh by cch thc b tr d liu trong bng tnh. Cng thc tnh ton s dng hm FV v tnh th cng. 2.1.2.3. Hm PMT Hm PMT tnh ton gi tr tng ng tng k khi bit gi tr hin ti v / hoc gi tr tng lai bng cch kt hp cng thc 3.13 v 3.15. C php ca hm ny nh sau =PMT(rate, nper,pv,[fv],[ type]) Cc tham s tng t nh tham s ca hm FV v PV. V d 3.8 c mt khon tin l $10000 sau 20 nm na th mi nm phi gi ngn hng mt khon tin bng bao nhiu nu li sut 4.5%/nm khng thay i trong sut thi k nghin cu. B qua lm pht, s dng phng php nin kim u k.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 3.11 trnh by cch tnh ton gi tr tng ng tng k trong Excel s dng hm PMT

Hnh 3. 10 Tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin

Hnh 3. 11 Tnh ton gi tr tng ng tng k dng hm PMT

2.1.2.3. Mi quan h gia tham s ca cc hm PV, FV, PMT. C mt quan h rt cht ch gia cc tham s sut chit khu (rate), s k (nper), gi tr tng ng tng k (pmt) v gi tr hin ti (pv) hoc tng lai (fv). T cc cng thc 3.10 n 3.15 cho thy nu bit 3 trong s 4 tham s ny th c th suy ra tham s cn li. Trong Excel, cc hm RATE tnh sut chit khu v hm NPER tnh s k. C php ca hm RATE: = RATE(nper, pmt, pv,[fv],[type],[guess]) Trong : Guess l gi tr d on. Nu b qua gi tr ny, Excel s t ng gn cho guess=10%. Cc tham s khc tng t nh hm pmt. V d 3.9. Mt khon vay $8000 ban u c ngh thanh ton $200/thng lin tc trong 4 nm (48 thng). Hi li sut (sut chit khu) ca khon vay ny l bao nhiu? S dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) phng php nin kim u k. Hnh 3.12 trnh by cch b tr d liu trong Excel v cng thc tnh.

Hnh 3. 12 Tnh sut chit khu s dng hm rate

Hm NPER tnh s k thanh ton c c php: =NPER(rate, pmt, pv,[fv],[type]) Cc tham s ca hm ny c gii thch trong cc hm fv, pv.. c gi c th t thc hin hm NPER trong Excel t d liu ca cc v d 3.6 n 3.9. 2.1.2.4 Tnh gi tr tng lai khi li sut thay i Trong cc hm FV, PV, PMT, RATE, NPER v cc cng thc tnh th cng trnh by, li sut (rate) khng thay i trong sut thi k nghin cu. i vi trng hp li sut thay i th cc hm trn khng p dng c. Excel cung cp cng c Analysis Toolpak vi hm FVSCHEDULE tnh gi tr tng lai vi li sut thay i khi bit gi tr hin ti v s k tnh li. Cng thc tnh
FVSCHEDULE = PV(1 + rate 1)(1 + rate 2).. (1 + rate n). (3. 16)

Trong : Rate 1, ..,rate n l li sut trong cc k nghin cu. C php ca hm FVSCHEDULE nh sau: =FVSCHEDULE(principal, schedule) Trong : Principal l gi tr hin ti. Schedule l cc li sut tng k trong khong thi gian nghin cu. Ch : s dng c hm FVSHEDULE v mt s hm ti chnh khc nh NOMINAL, EFFECT,.. cn phi ci thm gi phn mm Analysis Toolpak t menu Tools/Add-ins nh cch ci t cng c Solver trnh by trong chng 2.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

V d 3.10 Mt khon tin vay ban u $1000 trong 3 nm vi li sut ln lt l 3.5%/nm, 4%/nm v 5%/nm. Hi sau 3 nm c li v gc cn phi thanh ton bao nhiu tin. Hnh 3.13 trnh by cch b tr d liu v s dng hm trong bng tnh Excel.

Hnh 3. 13 Tnh gi tr tng lai khi li sut thay i

2.2 Cc ch tiu ch yu nh gi hiu qu d n u t nh gi hiu qu kinh t ca d n u t, ngi ta thng s dng cc ch tiu ch yu l gi tr hin ti thun ca d n (NPV) v sut thu li ni ti (IRR) v thi gian hon vn c tnh chit khu (Thv). 2.2.1 Ch tiu gi tr hin ti thun NPV (Net Present Value) NPV l ton b thu nhp v chi ph ca phng n trong sut thi k phn tch c qui i thnh mt gi tr tng ng thi im hin ti ( u k phn tch gc).
NPV =
t =0 n

Rt -Ct - I t (1 + r)t

(3. 17)

Trong : Rt: Doanh thu ca d n nm th t Ct: Chi ph vn hnh ca d n nm th t It: Chi ph u t nm th t n: Thi gian thc hin d n r = MARR (Minmum Attractive Rate of Returni ): Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c hay mc li sut thp nht m nh u t yu cu. Gi tr ca NPV ph thuc vo sut chit khu r, gi tr dng tin v di thi gian ca d n. Khi NPV =0 c ngha l phng n trang tri ht cc chi ph b ra v c li bng sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c MARR. Khi NPV >0 ngoi vic trang tri c chi ph v c mc li bng mc li sut ti thiu chp nhn c MARR, phng n cn thu c mt lng chnh bng NPV.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Khi s dng NPV nh gi v la chn phng n u t, ngi ta chp nhn mi d n c NPV dng khi c chit khu vi mt li sut thch hp. iu c ngha l tng li ch c chit khu ln hn tng chi ph c chit khu hay d n c kh nng sinh li. Trong cc phng n loi tr nhau, phng n no c NPV ln nht l phng n c li nht. Trong thc t, n v c th c nhiu d n c kh nng sinh li, nhng do thiu vn, cc d n khng th ng thi thc hin mt lc. Khi , nguyn tc la chn l d n no c NPV cao nht s c u tin thc hin. Trong trng hp cn phi so snh cc phng n c di thi gian khc nhau th phi thc hin iu chnh cc phng n c thi hn thc hin bng nhau. C nh vy mi c th s dng ch tiu NPV so snh la chn phng n. 2.2.2 Chi tiu sut thu li ni ti IRR (Internal Rate of Return) Nh c th thy t cng thc 3.18, gi tr ca NPV ph thuc vo t l chit khu hay NPV l mt hm ca t l chit khu r. Xut pht t ngi ta nh ngha sut thu li ni ti l t l chit khu lm chi gi tr hin ti thun bng khng.

(1 + IRR)
t =0

Rt -Ct - I t
t

=0

(3. 18)

Sut thu li ni ti l li sut i m d n to ra. Mt khc IRR cn phn nh chi ph s dng vn ti a m nh u t c th chp nhn c. Khng c cng thc ton hc no c th tnh trc tip c IRR. Trong thc t ngi ta thng s dng phng php ni suy bng cch xc nh khong li sut m NPV i du dng phng php t l xc nh IRR. Chn li sut r1 (%) sao cho NPV (r1) >0 v li sut r2 (%) sao cho NPV (r2) < 0 v (r2 r1 ) 5 (%). Khi IRR c tnh theo cng thc 3.19.

IRR = r1 +

NPV (r1 ) (r2 - r1 ) NPV (r1 ) + NPV (r2 )

(3. 19)

Nguyn tc nh gi d n theo IRR l chp nhn d n nu sut thu li ni ti ca d n ln hn chi ph c hi ca vn. Lc d n c mc li cao hn li sut thc t phi tr cho cc ngun vn s dng trong d n. Ngc li, khi IRR ca d n nh hn chi ph c hi ca vn th d n s b bc b. Tiu chun IRR c s dng trong vic so snh cc d n c lp, trong d n no c IRR ln hn s c xp hng cao hn.

NPV IRR NPV(r1) NPV(r2)


Hnh 3. 14 Quan h gia NPV v IRR

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

2.2.3 Thi gian hon vn c tnh chit khu Thi gian hon vn c tnh chit khu l thi gian tch ly dng tin tr thnh dng. Thi gian hon vn c tnh chit khu Thv c tnh theo cng thc:

t =0

Thv

Rt -Ct - I t =0 (1 + r)t

(3. 20)

Trong r = MARR. Thv l khong thi gian m thhu nhp ca d n tr ht mi chi ph u t ban u vi mc li bng t l chit khu. D n c chp nhn khi thi gian hon vn c chit khu nh hn hay bng thi hn nh: Thv T*. Ti gii hn, d n s c chp nhn nu thi gian hon vn c chit khu nh hn i ca d n Thv n. 2.3 Cc hm nh gi hiu qu d n u t trong Excel 2.3.1 Hm tnh gi tr hin ti thun Hm NPV trong Excel tnh ton gi tr hin ti thun ca dng tin s dng sut chit khu khng i trong sut k phn tch. C php ca hm NPV nh sau: =NPV(rate,value1,value2,,value(n)) Trong : Rate: sut chit khu Value 1, value2, .., value n : cc khon tin xut hin ti cc thi im 1, 2, ..,n ca k phn tch vi cc thi on bng nhau. Ch : Hm NPV khng tnh ton lng tin xut hin u ca k gc (thi im 0). Do vy khi tnh ton s dng hm NPV, nu c khon tin xut hin ti thi im 0 th phi cng vo kt qu tr v ca hm NPV. Cc gi tr value 1, value 2, .., value n phi c nhp vo theo ng th t. V d 3.11. Mt d n u t $100000. D n ko di trong 5 nm vi mc thu nhp d tnh t cui nm th nht n cui nm th nm ln lt l $21000; $34000; $40000; $33000; $17000. Vi sut chit khu thch hp r = MARR= 8%/nm, hy tm NPV ca d n. Hnh 3.15 trnh by cch biu din dng tin trong Excel v cng thc tnh s dng hm NPV ca Excel v tnh theo cng thc 3.18. Trng hp sut chit khu thay i (c gi tr khc nhau tng k) vi sut chit khu r1, r2,.., rn th khng th s dng hm NPV c. Khi , tnh t l chit khu tch ly adf theo cng thc:
adft = (1+ rt)(1+ rt-1) 1 (3. 21)

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Trong : adft: t l chit khu tch ly k t rt: sut chit khu k t Gi tr hin ti (Pt) ca khon tin (F) xut hin k t tnh theo cng thc:
Pt = Ft 1 + adft

(3. 22)

Gi tr hin ti thun ca c dng tin c tnh bng tng cc gi tr Pt tnh theo cng thc 3.21. c gi t thc hin v d cho trng hp ny.

Hnh 3. 15 Tnh gi tr hin ti thun trong Excel

Trng hp dng tin vi cc khon tin xut hin ti cc thi im to ra cc khong thi gian khng bng nhau trong k phn tch th s dng hm XNPV theo cng thc:
XNPV =
t =1 n

At (1 + r )

dt - d1 365

(3. 23)

Trong : At: khon tin xut hin ti thi im t ca dng tin (At = Rt Ct Ct) r: Sut chit khu d1: Thi im phn tch d n (thi im 0) tnh theo thi gian lch dt: thi im xut hin khon tin At tnh theo thi gian lch

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

n: S ln xut hin khon tin At Hm XNPV trong gi phn mm ci thm Analysis Toolpak c c php nh sau: = XNPV(rate, values, dates) Trong : rate: sut chit khu. Values l dy trong Excel cha cc khon tin xut hin ti cc thi im khc nhau. C th tnh c thi im u k gc (thi im 0). Dy ny phi c t nht mt gi tr m v mt gi tr dng. Dates: thi im tnh theo lch xut hin cc khon tin tng ng. Gi tr u tin ca date biu th thi im phn tch (thi im 0). Cc gi tr khc phi ln hn gi tr u tin. Khc vi NPV, cc gi tr value ca XNPV khng nht thit phi theo th t xut hin. V d 3.12. Mt d n u t bt u thc hin u t ngy 1 thng 2 nm 2009 vi s tin u t ban u l $10000. D kin thu c cc khon tin sau khi tr i chi ph vo cc thi im khc nhau ng vi bng sau Thi im Thu nhp chi ph ($) 1-3- 2009 2750 30-10-2009 4250 15-2-2010 3250 1-4-2011 3100

Vi sut chit khu 8%. Hy tnh gi tr hin ti thun ca d n (gi tr quy v 1-3-2009). Hnh 3.16 trnh by cch b tr d liu v cng thc tnh trong Excel.

Hnh 3. 16 Tnh gi tr hin ti thun khi dng tin xut hin ti cc thi im khng u nhau

2.3.2 Hm tnh sut thu li ni ti Hm IRR trong Excel tnh t sut thu li ni ti ca dng tin c cc khon tin xut hin ti cc thi im to ra cc khong u nhau trong k phn tch ca d n u t. C php:

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

= IRR (values, guess) Trong : value: dy cha gi tr ca dng tin cn tnh IRR. Th t xut hin ca cc khon tin trong dng tin cn phi nhp theo th t. Cn phi c t nht mt gi tr m v mt gi tr dng. Guess: l gi tr d on gn vi IRR. Nu b qua tham s ny, Excel s gn cho guess =10%. a s cc trng hp khng cn nhp gi tr guess ny. Excel s dng k thut lp tnh ton IRR. Xut pht t gi tr guess, Excel tnh IRR cho n khi kt qu t chnh xc 0.00001 (%). Nu sau 20 ln lp m khng tm c kt qu Excel bo li #NUM. Khi thay i gi tr guess Excel tnh ton li. V d 3.13 S dng s liu ca v d 3.11. Mt d n ko di trong 5 nm vi khon u t ban u $100000. Thu nhp ca d n t nm th nht n nm th 5 ln lt l $21000; $34000; $40000; $33000; $17000.Hy tnh IRR ca d n. Hnh 3.17 trnh by cch b tr d liu trong Excel v cng thc tnh IRR. Cng ging nh hm NPV, hm IRR cng khng th tnh c sut thu li ni ti khi dng tin xut hin ti cc thi im to ra cc khong khng u nhau trong k phn tch. Trng hp ny ngi ta s dng hm XIRR l sut chit khu lm cho XNPV=0 nh trong cng thc 3.24.

Hnh 3. 17 Tnh IRR trong Excel

Hm XIRR do trnh ci thm Analysis Toolpak cung cp dng tnh sut thu li ni ti ca dng tin xut hin ti nhng thi im khng cch u nhau theo cng thc:

0 =
t =1

At (1 + XIRR)

dt - d1 365

(3. 24)

C php ca hm XIRR nh sau: = XIRR(values, dates, guess)

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Cc tham s ca XIRR tng t nh cc tham s ca XNPV. V d 3.14. S dng s liu ca v d 3.12 nh sau: Mt d n u t bt u thc hin u t ngy 1 thng 2 nm 2009 vi s tin u t ban u l $10000. D kin thu c cc khon tin sau khi tr i chi ph vo cc thi im khc nhau ng vi bng sau Thi im Thu nhp chi ph ($) 1-3- 2009 2750 30-10-2009 4250 15-2-2010 3250 1-4-2011 3100

Hy tnh sut thu li ni ti ca d n. Cch phn tch dng tin v cng thc tnh sut thu hi ni ti trong Excel trong trng hp dng tin xut hin ti cc thi im ti thnh cc khong khng u nhau trnh by trong hnh 3.18. 2.4. Cc ch tiu khc 2.4.1 Li sut danh ngha v li sut thc t

Hnh 3. 18 Tnh sut thu li ni ti vi hm XIRR

Li sut thc t xut hin khi li sut danh ngha v k tnh li khng trng vi nhau. Nu li sut danh ngha (nominal rate) l i%/nm, k tnh li kp l n k trong mt nm th li sut thc t (effective rate) e%/nm c quan h vi li sut danh ngha theo cng thc:
i e = 1 + - 1 n
n

(3. 25)

Trong Excel, c hai hm th hin quan h trong cng thc 3.25. Hm EFFECT tnh li sut thc t khi bit li sut danh ngha v s k theo c php: = EFFECT(nomial_rate,npery) Trong : Nominal_rate: li sut danh ngha trong mt nm

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Npery: S k tnh li trong mt nm Hm NOMINAL tnh li sut danh ngha khi bit li sut thc t theo c php: = NOMINAL(effect_rate,npery) Trong : effect_rate: li sut thc t trong mt nm.

V d 3.15. Mt khon vay ngn hng vi li sut danh ngha l 5.25%/nm nhng c tnh tr li theo qu. Hi li sut thc t ca khon vay l bao nhiu %/nm.

Hnh 3. 19 Tnh li sut thc t trong Excel

Ch : cc hm EFFECT v NOMINAL nm trong gi phn mm ci thm Analysis Toolpak. Nu cha ci gi ny m s dng cc hm ny s bo li #VALUE!.

3. u t chng khon
Gi phn mm ci thm Analysis Toolpak ca Excel cung cp mt s hm tnh cc gi tr ca tri phiu, s ngy t ngy pht hnh n ngy mua li tri phiu, li gp.. Sau y gii thiu mt s hm thng dng cho u t tri phiu 3.1 Tnh li gp cho mt tri phiu tr vo ngy ti hn
ACC = par * rate A D

(3. 26)

Trong

ACC: li gp ca tri phiu. Par: mnh gi ca tri phiu Rate: Li sut hng nm ca tri phiu A: S ngy tch ly ca tri phiu D: S ngy ca nm c s

Trong Excel s dng hm ACCRINTM theo c php sau: = ACCRINTM(issue, maturity, rate, par, basis) Trong : issue: ngy pht hnh maturity: ngy ti hn

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

rate: t sut ca cun phiu par: gi tr mi cun phiu. Nu b qua Excel s gn l $1000 basis: s ngy c s. Bng 3.1 lit k cc dng c s s dng trong Excel. V d 3.16.Tnh li gp cho mt tri phiu kho bc mnh gi $500 pht hnh ngy 15-52006 c hn thanh ton vo ngy 25-10-2009 vi li sut 4%/nm. S dng m c s 1.
Bng 3. 1 M c s cho cc hm tnh ton chng khon

M 0 1 2 3 4

C s M (NASD) 30/360 S ngy thc t /S ngy thc t S ngy thc t /360 S ngy thc t /365 30/360 (Chu u)

Cng thc = ACCRINTM(date(2006,5,15),date(2009,10,25),4%,500,1) = 68.94 ($) 3.2 Tnh li gp ca mt chng khon tr theo nh k

ACCRINT = par
Trong :

NC Ai rate NL frequency i =1 i

(3. 27)

ACCRINT: li gp ca mt chng khon tr theo nh k Ai: S ngy tch ly ca cun phiu k th i tnh cho cc k l. NC: S k ca cun phiu thch hp vi s k l. Nu s ny l phn s th lm trn tng. NLi: S ngy trong mt k ca k th i trong k l. Trong Excel s dng hm ACCRINT vi c php nh sau =ACCRINT(issue,first_interest,settlement,rate,par,frequency,basis) Trong : Issue: ngy pht hnh chng khon. First_interest: ngy tr li sut k u. Settlement: ngy thanh ton chng khon. Rate: t sut (li sut) hng nm ca cun phiu. Par: mnh gi ca cun phiu. Nu b qua tham s ny th Excel t ng tnh vi gi tr $1000. Frequency: mt s nguyn phn nh s ln tr ca cun phiu trong mt nm. Tham s ny ch nhn mt trong cc gi tr 1, 2 hay 4 tc l mc nh c 3 hnh thc thanh ton l thanh ton hng nm, thanh ton na nm v thanh ton theo qu.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Basis s ngy c s V d 3.17. Mt tri phiu kho bc c pht hnh ngy 10-3-2003, ngy tr li k u l 1- 8 2003, ngy thanh ton tri phiu l 31-5-2008. Li sut ca tri phiu l 10%, mnh gi l 1000 USD. Dng c s 30/360 tnh li sut gp cho tri phiu. Cng thc = ACCRINT(date(2003,3,10),date(2003,8,1),date(2008,5,31),10%,1000,2,0) = 525.2 ($) 3.3 Tnh t sut chit khu ca mt chng khon Cng thc tnh t sut chit khu ca chng khon l
Redemption-par B x par DSM

DISC=

(3. 28)

Trong : B: S ngy trong nm, ph thuc vo basis c la chn nh th no. DSM : s ngy tnh c gia hai mc thi gian vi im u l settlement v im cui l maturity Hm DISC trong Excel c c php nh sau: =DISC(settlement,maturity,pr,redemption,basis) Trong : Settlement: mt s tun t cho bit ngy thanh ton. Maturity: ngy ti hn ca chng khon. Pr: gi tr ca mi $100 mnh gi ca chng khon. Redemption: gi tr phi tr cho mi mnh gi $100. Basis c s V d 3.18. Mt tri phiu chit khu gi tr $100 c hn thanh ton ngy 15-7-2009 c mua li vo ngy 23-3-2008 vi gi $96.5. Tnh sut chit khu ca tri phiu s dng c s 1. Cng thc = DISC(date(2008,3,23),date(2009,7,15),96.5,100,1) = 0.027 (2,7%) 3.4 Tnh li sut ca mt chng khon c u t ht
INTRATE = Re demption - Investment B x Investment DIM

(3. 29)

Trong : B: s ngy trong nm c s DIM: s ngy tnh t ngy thanh ton ti ngy ti hn. C php ca hm INTRATE trong Excel =INTRATE(settlement, maturity, investment, redemption, basis)

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Trong : Settlement: ngy thanh ton Maturity: ngy ti hn investment khon tin u t redemption: khon tin thu c vo ngy ti hn basis: c s V d 3.19. Tnh li sut cho mt chng khon c ngy thanh ton l 01-02-2008, ngy ti hn l 15-06-2010, tin u t l $ 5000, tin thu c l $6500, c s l 1. Cng thc = INTRATE(date(2008,2,1),date(2010,6,15),5000,6500,1) = 0.1267 (12,67%) 3.5.Tnh s tin thu c vo ngy ti hn ca mt chng khon c u t ht C php: =RECEIVED(settlement, maturity, investment, discount, basis) Trong : discount l t sut chit khu, cc tham s khc tng t hm INTRATE Received c tnh th cng theo cng thc:
RECEIVED = Investment DIM 1 - (discount x ) B

(3. 30)

V d 3.20 Tnh s tin thu c vo ngy ti hn ca mt tri phiu kho bc c u t ht c ngy thanh ton l 18-05-2007, ngy ti hn l 18-10-2008, tin u t l $500 t sut chit khu l 5.85%, c s l 1. Cng thc tnh = RECEIVED(date(2007,5,15),date(2008,10,18),500,5.85%,1) = 545.58 ($) Mt s hm khc c gi c th tm hiu thm trong cc ti liu ring v cc hm ti chnh ca Excel hay trong tr gip trc tuyn.

BI TP CHNG 3
Bi 3.1. Mt TSC nguyn gi 50 triu ng, d tnh khu hao trong 7 nm. Gi tr o thi c tnh 10 triu ng. Hy tnh lng trch khu hao v gi tr cn li ca TSC theo phng php khu hao u (SNL), theo tng s nm s dng (SYD), khu hao theo phng php s d gim dn (DB) v khu hao nhanh (DDB) vi t l 2.5, khu hao kt hp c chuyn sang khu hao u (VDB no_switch = 0) vi t l 2.5.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Vi sut chit khu r = 5% /nm. Hy phn tch dng tin ca cc phng php khu hao trn. Nu coi nguyn gi ca TSC l s tin u t v lng trch khu hao l thu nhp hy tnh NPV ca tng phng php. Phng php no c NPV ln hn? Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 1. Bi 3.2. Mt cng ty c hai phng n u t, phng n 1 xy dng nh trong 3 nm mi nm chi ph 1 triu USD v kt thc nm th 3 th bn c vi gi 4 triu USD. Phng n 2 xy mt nh ln hn trong 6 nm vi chi ph 1 triu mi nm v kt thc nm th 6 bn c 8.5 triu USD. Vi MARR = 10% /nm. Hi tng chi ph v li nhun ca mi phng n. Nu s dng NPV so snh phng n (gi s phng n 1 sau khi bn c nh li ti u t vi c cu nh c bng thi gian ca phng n 2) th chn phng n no? mc chit khu no th o li kt lun? Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 2. Bi 3.3 Mt ngi hin ang 40 tui lp k hoch cho tng lai bng cch mua bo him c u n na nm ng $2000 vi li sut khng i 10.5% /nm trong 25 nm lin tc. Khi 25 nm th bt u ngh hu (65 tui) v s rt trong 10 nm lin tc n khi ngi 75 tui, vo cui mi nm. Hi ngi c rt u n mi nm bao nhiu tin. b qua lm pht. Nu mc lm pht l 8% mi nm th s tin ngi c rt l bao nhiu tin c sc mua nh khi ngi 40 tui. Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 3. Bi 3.4 Mt cng ty d nh mua 1 thit b vi gi 50 triu ng, d tnh s dng trong 5 nm vi gi tr cn li d kin l 0. Gi s chi ph vn hnh bnh qun trn mt nm l 9,5 triu ng, thu nhp hng nm d kin l 28 triu . Cho bit thu thu nhp l 28%, 60% tin mua thit b l tin vay vi li sut l 8%/nm tr u trong nm 5. Khu hao ti sn theo phng php SLN. Hy tnh NPV ca dng tin m doanh nghip thc nhn hng nm vi mc chit khu 8%/nm. Cng ty c nn mua ti sn hay khng. Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 4. Bi 3.5 Mt d n ko di trong 5 nm ban u mua mt thit b gi 40 triu ng, khu hao theo phng php khu hao nhanh (DDB) vi t l khu hao l 2. Gi tr cn li ti sn l 5 triu. Thu nhp trc thu l d kin l 20 triu t nm th 1 n th 3. Thu nhp trc thu nm 4 v th 5 l 15 triu. Bit rng 60% vn u t ban u l vn vay vi phng thc tr li hng nm l 2,5 triu trong 5 nm, ton b vn vay tr vo cui nm th nm, thu thu nhp l 28% nm.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Hy tnh NPV ca thu nhp thc sau thu ca d n bit mc chit khu i=10%/nm. Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 5. Bi 3.6 Mt cng ty ang phn tch tnh kinh t ca vic thu mt mnh t trong 6 nm vi khon thanh ton tin thu ngay thi im ban u l 80000$. Mnh t ny c th lm trung tm qung co sn phm vi yu cu phi xy dng trn mnh t ny to nh tr gi 200000$ ti thi im ban u v d kin s to thu nhp hng nm l 290000$ v chi ph vn hnh hng nm l 160000$ vo cui cc nm t nm th nht n nm th 6. Hy tnh NPV ca d n vi li sut nm l 13%. Theo anh ch c nn quyt nh u t d n trn hay khng?ti sao? Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 6. Bi 3.7 Mt trng i hc dn lp ang ln k hoch trang b mt phng my tnh mi. C hai la chn. Mt l, mua mi nguyn dn my vi gi 25.000 USD. Hai l, i thu dn mt dn my tng t t cng ty IEC, thi gian thu l 6 nm, tin thu c tr hng nm l 6.200 USD, li sut 8%/nm, t 1 tr ngay sau khi k hp ng. Tui th kinh t ca my tnh dng tnh khu hao theo ng thng, c qui nh l 5 nm. Sau 5 nm gi tr thanh l ca dn my l khng ng k. Qu trnh s dng chi ph duy tu bo dng l khng ng k. Tnh NPV ca phng n i thu, qua , tr li xem trng nn thu hay l mua my? IRR ca dng tin ca phng n mua my l bao nhiu? Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 7. Bi 3.8 Mt cng ty bn xe t xy dng cc phng thc bn hng ca cng ty mnh cho dng xe mi nhn hiu OA-OA nh sau: - Phng thc 1: Khch hng tr ton b tin ngay sau khi nhn xe vi gi mi chic xe l 500 triu ng. - Phng thc 2: Khch hng s tr 100 triu ng ngay khi nhn xe, s tin cn li s tr trong 2 nm, tr 03 thng 01 ln (8 ln). S tin mua xe (tin gc) phi tr hng thng u nhau, ngoi ra khch hng phi tr thm tin li tnh trn s d n cn li. - Phng thc 3: Khch hng s tr 100 triu ng ngay khi nhn xe, s tin cn li s tr trong 2 nm, tr 03 thng 01 ln (8 ln). S tin phi tr (bao gm tin mua xe v tin li tnh trn s d n cn li) hng thng u nhau. Li sut l 3%/qu (3 thng). Cho bit s tin vn gc v li tr hng nm nu khch hng mua theo phng thc 2 v phng thc 3 Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 3, bi s 8.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

CHNG 4: PHN TCH HI QUY TNG QUAN V D BO KINH T 1. HI QUY V TNG QUAN
Cn c vo mc cht ch ca quan h gia cc bin nghin cuc th phn chia quan h ca chng thnh quan h hm v quan h thng k. Quan h hm: Hai bin ngu nhin X v Y c gi l ph thuc hm s nu tn ti f sao cho Y=f(X) tc l khi i lng X bin i th theo mt quy tc no c th xc nh c gi tr tng ng i lng Y. Quan h thng k: Hai bin ngu nhin X v Y c gi l ph thuc thng k nu mi gi tr ca X c th xc nh c quy lut phn phi xc sut c iu kin ca Y: F(y/X=x) = P(Y>y/X=x). y l s ph thuc khng hon ton cht ch tc l khi mt hin tng bin i th lm cho hin tng lin quan bin i nhng n khng c nh hng hon ton quyt nh n s bin i ny. Phn tch tng quan o mc kt hp tuyn tnh gia hai bin. Trong , khng c s phn bit gia cc bin. Cc bin c tnh cht i xng. Phn tch hi quy nghin cu mi lin h ph thuc ca mt bin (gi l bin ph thuc hay bin c gii thch) vi mt hay nhiu bin khc (c gi l bin c lp hay bin gii thch). 1.1. Phn tch tng quan Mc ch ca phng php phn tch tng quan l c lng mc nh hng ca cc bin c lp vi nhau (cc yu t nguyn nhn). Phng php ny c ng dng trong kinh doanh v kinh t phn tch mi lin h gia hai hay nhiu bin ngu nhin. 1.1.1.H s tng quan tng th H s tng quan o lng mc quan h tuyn tnh gia hai bin; chnh xc hn l quan h tuyn tnh gia hai bin, khng phn bit bin ny ph thuc vo bin kia. Gi s X v Y l hai bin ngu nhin c V (X) > 0 v V (Y) > 0, th h s tng quan ca hai bin X v Y c xc nh nh sau:

r XY =

E [( X - E ( X ))(Y - E (Y ))] V ( X ).V (Y )

(4. 1)

H s tng quan c cc tnh cht sau: H s tng quan khng c n v, v c tnh hon i (rXY = r YX). H s tng quan lun bin ng trong khong t -1 n 1 (|rXY | 1). H s tng quan dng cho bit X v Y c quan h cng chiu v h s tng quan m th ngc li. ). rXY = 1 khi v ch khi X v Y c mi quan h ph thuc tuyn tnh. Nh vy c th dng rXY o lng s ph thuc tuyn tnh ca hai bin ngu nhin, tr s ca h s tng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) quan cng ln th mi quan h tuyn tnh cng r rng. Ngc li khi rXY = 0 tc l X, Y c lp nhau hoc gia X v Y c quan h phi tuyn. 1.1.2. H s tng quan mu: Gi (x1, y1), (x2, y2), .., (xn, yn) l n cp quan st ca hai bin ngu nhin X v Y. H s tng quan mu ( r) ca n cp gi tr quan st ca hai bin X v Y th hin bng cng thc sau:

rxy =

x
i =1

yi / n -

xi y i
i =1

i =1 2

k xi k k 2 yi 2 ( x 2 ) / n - ( i =1 ) ( y i2 ) / n - ( i =1 ) i i =1 n n i =1 k

(4. 2)

Trng hp mi cp gi tr (xi, yi) xut hin vi tn sut mi sao cho (4.2) tr thnh cng thc

m
i =1

= n th cng thc

rxy =

m x
i =1 i

yi / n -

mi x i mi y i
i =1 i =1

n2

k k mi x i k k m yi 2 ( m x 2 ) / n - ( i =1 ) 2 ( mi y i2 ) / n - ( i =1 ) i i i =1 n n i =1

(4. 3)

Bng 4.1 trnh by mi quan h gia X v Y ng vi cc tr s r khc nhau.


Bng 4. 1 ngha ca h s tng quan

Tr s r r=0 |r| =1 0.0< |r| < 0.3 0.3< |r| < 0.5 0.5 < |r| < 0.7 0.7 < |r| < 0.9 0.9 < |r| < 1.0

Quan h gia bin X v Y X v Y c lp hoc c quan h phi tuyn X v Y c quan h tuyn tnh X v Y c quan h yu X v Y c quan h trung bnh X v Y c quan h tng i cht X v Y c quan h cht X v Y c quan h rt cht

1.1.3. H s tng quan bi v h s tng quan ring phn H s tng quan bi:

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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H s tng quan bi nh gi mc cht ch ca mi lin h gia mt tiu thc (thng l tiu thc kt qu) vi cc tiu thc cn li (thng l tiu thc nguyn nhn) c iu kin loi tr nh hng ca cc tiu thc nguyn. Cng thc tnh tng quan bi gia bin Y v cc bin X1, X2,.., Xn nh cng thc 4.4. H s tng quan ring phn:

R yx1x2 ... xn =

(y - y ) 1 (y - y )
x1x2 ... xn 2

(4. 4)

H s tng quan ring phn dng nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin h gia tiu thc kt qu vi tng tiu thc nguyn nhn vi iu kin loi tr nh hng ca cc tiu thc nguyn nhn khc. Gi s c mi lin h gia Y vi X1 v X2 c th tnh tng quan ring phn gia Y v X1 (loi tr nh hng ca X2) nh sau

ryx 1 ( x 2 ) =

(1 - r )(1 - r ) .
2 yx 2 2 x1 x 2

ryx1 - ryx 2 .rx1 x2

(4. 5)

V tng quan ring phn gia Y v X2 (loi tr nh hng ca X1) tnh theo cng thc 4.6

r yx 2 ( x1 ) =

(1 - r )(1 - r ) .
2 yx 1 2 x1 x2

r yx 2 - r yx 1 .rx 1 x 2

(4. 6)

1.1.4 Tnh ton h s tng quan mu trong Excel Trng hp mu quan st c tn sut m th c th tnh ton th cng theo cng thc 4.3 hoc chuyn thnh mi dng (ct) ch cha mt quan st (m = 1). D liu c th b tr theo hng hoc theo ct. Nu tnh ton th cng s dng cng thc 4.2 hoc 4.3 c th kt hp cc hm, SQRT, SUMPRODUCT, tnh ton h s tng quan r. Cng c th s dng cc hm thng k ca Excel tnh ton. Ch cc hm thng k ca Excel khng th tnh ton vi cc mu quan st c tn s m 1 nn s dng cng thc cn phi bin i d liu mi quan st nn trn mt hng (ct) trong Excel. 1.1.4.1 Hm RSQ Hm RSQ tnh ton phng sai mu (r2) theo c php

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= RSQ (known_ys, known_xs) Trong : Known_ys: cc gi tr ca mu quan st y ca bin Y Known_xs: cc gi tr ca mu quan st x ca bin X 1.1.4.2 Hm CORREL Hm CORREL tnh ton tng quan mu ( r) theo c php: = CORREL (array1, array2) Trong : Array1, array2 Cc gi tr ca mu quan st x, y ca hai bin X v Y. Th t ca cc tham s trong hm RSQ v hm CORREL khng quan trng. 1.1.4.3 S dng trnh ci thm Correlation trong gi Analysis Toolpak-VBA. Trnh ci thm Correlation trong gi Analysis Toolpak-VBA cho php s dng cng c phn tch tng quan vi giao din ha trc quan d thc hin. Truy cp trnh ci thm t memu Tools / Data Analysis chn Correlation nh hnh 4.1

Hnh 4. 1 Hp thoi Data Analysis

Hnh 4. 2 Hp thoi Correlation

Khi chn Correlation v nhn OK, hp thoi Correlation xut hin nhp d liu nh hnh 4.2. Cc la chn ca hp thoi Correlation nh sau: + Input Range: Khai bo vng d liu phn tch. + Grouped by : T chc d liu theo hng: + Columns: Theo ct + Rows: Theo hng + Labels in First row: Dng u tin ca vng d liu l tn bin. + Output Range: Gc trn bn tri ca vn cha kt qu. Vng ny nm trn cng mt sheet vi vng d liu. + New Worksheet Ply: Tr kt qu ra mt trang bng tnh khc trong cng mt file vi file cha d liu. + New Workbook: Tr kt qu ra mt file ring .

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V d 4.1 nghin cu quan h gia tui ngh (y) v s sn phm sai hng (x) ca cng nhn trong phn xng ngi ta thng k ngu nhin 18 cng nhn, s liu thu c nh trong bng 4.2. Tm tng quan gi tui ngh v s sn phm sai hng Hnh 4.3 trnh by cch b tr d liu khi tnh h s tng quan r s dng cng thc 4.3. c gi c th s dng hm SUMPRODUCT tnh ton cc gi tr trong cc vng E9:I9. Nh c th thy t hnh 4.3, h s tng quan r = -0,708 cho thy khi tui ngh tng cao th sai st trong lao ng gim i v gia tui ngh v sai st c mi quan h kh cht vi nhau.

Hnh 4. 3 Tnh h s tng quan s dng cc hm ca Excel

Hnh 4.4 trnh by cch s dng hm CORREL ca Excel tnh ton h s tng quan s dng s liu ca v d 4.1. Hnh 4.5 trnh by hp thoi Correlation khi nhp d liu v kt qu tnh ton h s tng quan sau khi nhp OK trn hp thoi Correlation s dng d liu trong v d 4.1.

Hnh 4. 4 Tnh h s tng quan s dng hm CORREL khi d liu c tn sut

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1.2 Kim nh gi thuyt v s tn ti ca h tng quan tng th H s tng quan ca mu rt hu ch khi dng m t tnh cht ch ca mi quan h tuyn tnh trong mt mu. V vy, n c th dng lm c s cho kim nh gi thuyt ca t hp khng tuyn tnh (khng tng quan) trong tng th. kim nh v s tn ti ca h s tng quan ca tng th cn kim nh cp gi thuyt sau:

Hnh 4. 5 Tnh ton h s tng quan s dng trnh ci thm correlation

Gi thuyt H0: r =0 i thuyt H1: r 0 Gi tr kim nh t c tnh theo cng thc 4.7 nh sau
t= r (1 - r 2 ) /(n - 2)

(4. 7)

Trong : r: h s tng quan mu n: s quan st trong mu Min bc b gi thuyt H0 l hay |t| > tn-2, a /2 . Trong a l mc ngha ca kim nh. tn-2, a /2 l phn phi student vi xc sut a/2 v bc t do n-2. Trong Excel s dng hm thng k TINV tnh ton phn phi student vi c php sau: = TINV(probability, deg_freedom) Trong :

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Probability: Xc sut ca phn phi student Deg_freedom: bc t do ca phn phi student V d 4.2. S dng d liu ca v d 4.1. Cn kim nh gi thuyt rng tng th c mi quan h gia tui ngh v ph phm hay khng? C t tnh ton tnh theo cng thc 4.7 l -4.015. Tra bng phn phi student vi mc ngha a = 0.05 v bc t do n-2 = 16 c 2.4729. Vy |t| > t tra bng nn bc b H0. Ni cch khc kt lun v d liu iu tra mu c th p dng cho tng th vi xc sut mc sai lm 5%. r -0.70839 t= = = -4.015 2 (1 - r ) /(n - 2) (1 - 0.708392 ) /16 Hnh 4.6 trnh by cng thc tnh ton kim nh gi thuyt v mi tng quan gia tui ngh v sai hng khi gia cng sn phm vi mc ngha 5%.

Hnh 4. 6 Kim nh gi thuyt v s tn ti h s tng quan

2. HI QUY TUYN TNH N


2.1. C bn v hi quy tuyn tnh n Dng n gin nht ca mt m hnh hi qui cha mt bin ph thuc (cn gi l "bin u ra," "bin ni sinh," hay "bin-Y") v mt bin c lp n (cn gi l "h s," "bin ngoi sinh," hay "bin-X"). Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh n c th biu din theo dng:
Y= b0 + b1X (4. 8)

Trong thc t khng ch c bin X nh hng n Y m cn c cc yu t ngu nhin khc

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) nh hng n Y nn phng trnh 4.8 c vit thnh:
Y= b0 + b1X + e (4. 9)

Trong e l cc sai s. Trong thng k v trong kinh t lng, ngi ta s dng phng php bnh phng cc tiu c lng cc h s b1 v b0 theo cng thc sau:
b1 = n X iYi - X i Yi
i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n

n n X i2 - X i i =1 i =1
n

(4. 10)

H s chn b0 c c lng theo cng thc 4.12

b0 = Y

-b1X

(4. 11)

$ $ Trong b0 v b1 c gi l cc c lng im ca b0 v b1.


H s r2 o ph hp ca m hnh hi quy: K hiu
TSS= (Yi - Y ) 2
i=1 n

TSS (Total Sum of Square)l tng bnh phng ca tt cc sai lch gia gi tr quan st Yi v gi tr trung bnh ca chng. n ) ESS= (Y i -Y ) 2
i =1

ESS (Explained Sum of Square) Tng bnh phng ca tt c cc sai lch gia gi tr ca bin ph thuc Y nhn c t hm hi quy mu vi gi tr trung bnh ca chng. Phn ny o chnh xc ca hm hi quy. n n ) RSS = ei2 = (Yi - Yi ) 2
i =1 i =1

RSS (Residual Sum of Square) l tng bnh phng ca tt c cc sai lch gia gi tr quan st Y v gi tr nhn c t hm hi quy. Khi TSS= ESS+ RSS ) b -b Nn t = 1 ) 1 Trong Sx2 v Sy2 l phng sai mu ca X v Y. se( b1 ) Thy rng r2 o t l ca ton b sai lch ca Y vi gi tr trung bnh ca chng c gii thch bng m hnh. Do vy r2 c s dng o thch hp ca hm hi quy Khong tin cy v kim nh gi thuyt trong hi quy tuyn tnh n

) ) 2 2 Theo cc gi thit ca phng php bnh phng cc tiu th b 0 ~ N ( b 0 , s b)0 ); b1 ~ N ( b1 , s b)1 ) .

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)


) 2 2 Do cha bit s b)0 v s b)1 nn s dng c lng khng chch ca s 2 l s 2 . Khi cc ) ) b0 - b 0 b1 - b 1 ) v t = ) c phn b T (n-2). Do khong tin cy ca cc h s thng k t = se( b 0 ) se( b1 ) hi quy l:

Khong tin cy ca b0: Vi h s tin cy (1- a) tm c t a /2 (n-2) tha mn khong tin cy (1- a) ca b0 l: ) ) ) ) ( b 0 - ta / 2 (n - 2) se( b 0 ); b 0 + ta / 2 (n - 2) se( b0 )) Kim nh gi thuyt i vi b0 : Loi gi thuyt Hai pha Pha phi Pha tri Gi thuyt gc H0 b 0 = b 0* b0 b0* b0 b0* Gi thuyt thay th H1 b 0 b 0* b 0 > b 0* b 0 < b 0* Min bc b |t | > t a /2 (n-2) t > t a (n-2) t<- t a (n-2)

Khong tin cy ca b1: Tng t nh i vi b0 khong tin cy ca ) ) ) ) ( b1 - ta / 2 (n - 2) se( b1 ); b1 + ta / 2 (n - 2) se( b1 )) Kim nh gi thuyt i vi b0 : Loi gi thuyt Hai pha Pha phi Pha tri Gi thuyt gc H0 b 1 = b 1* b1 b1* b1 b1* Gi thuyt thay th H1 b 1 b 1* b 1 > b 1* b 1 < b 1* Min bc b |t | > t a /2 (n-2) t > t a (n-2) t<- t a (n-2)

3. HI QUY TUYN TNH BI


3.1 C bn v hi quy tuyn tnh bi Hm hi quy tuyn tnh tng th c dng
Yi = b0 + b1X1i + ..+ b kXki + Ui (4. 12)

Trong b0 l h s t do (h s chn). bi i = 1,.., k l cc h s hi quy ring. Hm hi quy mu c dng

Yi = b 0 + b1 X 1i + .. + b k X ki + ei

(4. 13)

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) M hnh ny ni ln mc ph thuc tuyn tnh ca bin ph thuc Y (i lng cn nghin cu) vi cc bin c lp (Xij), ei l sai s ngu nhin gy ra vi sai lch ca y vi gi tr trung bnh ca n. i vi m hnh ny ta chp nhn gi nh cc bin c lp khng c mi tng quan vi nhau v phng sai khng i. M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh bi i qua gi tr trung bnh ca n. Cc c lng b i c lng c l cc c lng khng chch c phng sai nh nht trong cc lp c lng khng chch ca bi. Trong cc trng hp nghin cu c th ngi ta thng tin hnh phn tch phng sai v phn tch tng quan trc thm d dng ca quan h ph thuc v kim tra xem c xy ra hin tng t tng quan, a cng tuyn hay phng sai thay i hay khng, v thng s dng th tc kim nh Dolbin Watsern. Vic tnh ton cc h s hi quy ca hi quy bi kh phc tp. V d, vi m hnh hi quy 2 bin c lp (X1, X2). Cc h s b2, b1, b0 c c lng theo cng thc sau
2 ( y i x1i )( x2 i ) - ( yi x2i )( x2i x1i ) i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 2 ( x12i )( x2i ) - ( x2i x1i ) i =1 1 i =1 n n n 2 n n n n

) b1 =

) b2 =

( y i x2i )( x ) - ( yi x1i )( x2i x1i )


i =1 i =1 2 1i i =1 i =1

( x )( x ) - ( x2 i x1i )
i =1 2 1i 2 2i 1 i =1

b 0 = Y - b1 X 1 - b 2X 2
Trong :
yi = Yi - Y ; x1i = X 1i - X 1 ; x 2i = X 2i - X 2

(4. 14)

3.2 Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy bi Trong m hnh hi quy bi, h s xc nh bi R2 c xc nh theo cng thc:
R2 = ESS ESS = 1(4. 15) TSS TSS

Do khng th dng R2 lm tiu chun xem xt vic a thm hay khng a thm bin vo m hnh, nn ngi ta a ra mt h s xc nh bi iu chnh (Ajusted R Squre) k hiu R 2 v tnh theo cng thc
R 2 = 1 - (1 - R 2 ) n n - k -1
(4. 16)

Khi R 2 cn tng th cn phi a thm bin mi vo m hnh hi quy. Kim nh gi thuyt v s ph hp ca m hnh bng tiu chun F c tnh theo cng thc

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

R 2 ( k - 2) F= (1 - R 2 )(n - k - 1)

(4. 17)

vi gi thuyt H0 : R2 = 0 H1: R2 >0 Min bc b H0 l F > F (k, n-k-1) vi k l s bin c lp. 3.3 Khong tin cy v kim nh gi thuyt ca m hnh hi quy bi Vic kim nh gi thuyt v khong tin cy ca m hnh hi quy bi tin hnh tng t nh b i - b i* m hnh hi quy n. Tiu chun kim nh l t = vi min bc b sau Se( b ) Loi gi thuyt Hai pha Bn tri Bn phi H0 b i = b i* b i b i* b i b i* H1 b i b i* b i < b i* b i > b i* Min bc b |t| > t a/2 (n-k-1) t < - t a (n-k-1) t > t a (n-k-1)

4. HI QUY PHI TUYN


Hi quy phi tuyn s dng phng php bnh phng cc tiu phi tuyn. Tuy nhin vic c lng cc h s ny kh phc tp. Trong nhiu trng hp, nu c th c ngi ta tm cch bin i cc phng trnh phi tuyn thnh phng trnh tuyn tnh d dng hi quy. Vi phng trnh hyperbol dng y = a/x, t 1/x = z a v phng trnh y = az v tin hnh hi quy tuyn tnh n. Vi phng trnh parabol dng y = a x2 +bx + c t z1 = x2, z2 = x a v phng trnh hi quy bi y = az1 + bz2.+c. Vi hm sn xut Cobb Douglas c dng: Y= A X1b1... Xib2...Xnbn Trong : Y l kt qu sn xut X1,..., Xi,...,Xn l mc u t cc yu t sn xut (t ai, lao ng,...). C th bin i thnh hm tuyn tnh bng cch logarit ha hai v v a v dng Ln Y = ln A + b1ln X1 + ..+ bn ln Xn. Khi s dng cc cng thc c lng cc tham s ca hi quy bi hi quy.

5. QUY TRNH PHN TCH HI QUY TRONG EXCEL

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

5.1 Phn tch hi quy n trong Excel 5.1.1 S dng hm Slope v Intercept c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy n Hm Slope dng c lng h s gc (b1) ca phng trnh y = b0 + b1x. C php ca hm slope nh sau: =Slope(Known_ys,known_xs). Trong : Known_ys: gi tr quan st ca bin ph thuc y Known_xs: Gi tr quan st ca bin c lp x. Hm Intercept dng c lng h s t do b0 ca phng trnh hi quy bc nht theo c php: =Intercept(Known_ys,known_xs). V d 4.3 Thng k gi tr sn xut v tiu th in nng trong 12 thng ngi ta thu c cc s liu sau
Thng Gi tr sn xut (triu USD) in nng tiu th (triu Kwh) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

4.51 3.58 4.31 5.06 5.64 4.99 5.29 5.83 4.71 5.61 4.91 4.19 2.48 2.26 2.47 2.77 2.99 3.05 3.18 3.46 3.03 3.26 2.67 2.53

Bit gi tr sn xut (y) c quan h vi in nng tiu th (x) theo dng y = b0 + b1x. Hy c lng cc tham s b0 v b1. Hnh 4.7 Trnh by cch nhp s liu vo Excel v s dng hm slope, intercept c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy n. 5.1.2 S dng trnh ci thm regression phn tch hi quy n Trnh ci thm regression nm trong gi phn mm Analysis Toolpak-VBA v c truy cp t menu Tools / Data Analysis / Regression nh hnh 4.8. ngha ty chn v cc nt lnh ca hp thoi regression trnh by trong bng 4. Regression khng ch cho cc c lng im ca cc tham s hi quy m cn cho cc tham s thng k kim nh m hnh hi quy, phn tch phng sai c lng khong ca cc tham s trong m hnh hi quy. S dng trnh regression cho php hi quy tuyn tnh b vi s bin ti a l 16.
Bng 4. 2 ngha cc ty chn ca hp thoi regression

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Tn nt

ngha Vng cha bin ph thuc Y Vng cha bin cc bin c lp X Chn try chn ny nu dng u tin ca vng d liu c ch tn bin Chn ty chn ny nu b qua b0 (b0 = 0) Chn mc tin cy ca hm hi quy (mc nh 95%) u tin bn tri vng kt qu khi kt qu trn cng mt sheet vi vng d liu Kt qu hin th trn mt sheet ring Kt qu hin th trn mt file Excel khc Cc ty chn hin th sai s:

Hnh 4. 7 S dng hm ca Excel c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy n

V d 4.4 S dng cc s liu ca v d 4.3 Thng k gi tr sn xut v tiu th in nng trong 12 thng ngi ta thu c cc s liu nh bng 4. Bit gi tr sn xut (y) c quan h vi in nng tiu th (x) theo dng y = b0 + b1x. Hy c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy, kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy v kim nh cc tham s ca m hnh. Hnh 4.8 tm tt cc tham s thng k do regreesion tr v. Hnh 4.9 hin th kt qu phn tch phng sai do regression tr v.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

= trang 95=

Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 4. 8 Hp thoi regression

Thng Gi tr sn xut (triu USD) in nng tiu th (triu Kwh)

10

11

12

4.51 3.58 4.31 5.06 5.64 4.99 5.29 5.83 4.71 5.61 4.91 4.19 2.48 2.26 2.47 2.77 2.99 3.05 3.18 3.46 3.03 3.26 2.67 2.53

Hnh 4. 9 Tm tt cc tham s thng k do regression tr v

Hnh 4. 10 Phn tch phng sai do regression tr v

Trong hnh 4.9, bc t do ca hi quy (dng regression ct df) l 1, bc t do ca sai s (dng residual ct df) l 10. Tng bnh phng cc sai lch do hi qui (dng Regression ct SS ESS) l 3.918. Tng bnh phng cc sai lch do ngu nhin (dng residual ct SS RSS) l 0.96. Phng sai tng ng ca cc ch tiu cho trong ct MS. Ct F cho phn phi F kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi qui. Gi tr significnace F cho bit xc sut F nh

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

hn f a (k, n-k-1). Hnh 4.11 trnh by kt qu hi quy v cc tham s thng k kim nh s cc tham s ca m hnh hi quy.

Hnh 4. 11 Kt qu hi quy do regression cung cp

T hnh 4.11 thy rng h s t do (intercept) b0 = 0. 3036, Se( b0) = 0.724. Thng k t (t Stat) l 0.419. Gi tr P-value cho bit xc sut t < t a/2 (n- k-1) . Cc ct Lower 95% v upper 95% cho bit khong tin cy ca h s hi qui. Hnh 4.12 hin th kt qu khi chn residual trong hp thoi regression.

Hnh 4. 12 Kt qu phn tch sai s do regression tr v

Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy: Gi thuyt H0: R2 = 0 Gi thuyt H1: R2 0. Cn c vo kt qu phn tch phng sai trong hnh 4.9 cho thy significance F = 8.09E-05 < a =5% kt lun m hnh l ph hp. Cng c th s dng hm FINV tra phn phi f a (k, n-k-1) theo c php: =finv(probability, deg_freedom1, deg_freedom2) Trong : Probability: xc sut (mc ngha a)

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Deg_freedom1: bc t do 1 (i vi hi qui n l 1) Deg_freedom2: Bc t do 2(i vi hi quy n l n-2) Vi v d 4.4, finv(0.05,1,10) = 4.96. C F = 40.63 > f = 4.96 nn bc b H0. Kim nh cc tham s hi qui. Kim nh b0: T hnh 4.10 c thy rng P-value ca b0 l 0.684 > a =5% nn kt lun h s b0 khng c ngha khi m rng m hnh. Cng c th thy iu ny khi xem xt m hnh hi qui v khi khng sn xut (tiu hao in nng bng 0) th gi tr sn xut khng th l s m. C th dng tiu chun t kim nh cc h s hi qui. Gi thuyt H0 : b0 = 0 Gi thuyt H1: b0 0 Gi tr t Stat= 0.419; Gi tr t a/2 (n-k-1) c tnh t hm TINV theo c php = tinv(0.025, 10) = 2.633. C t Stat < t a/2 (n-2) nn khng c s bc b H0. Vic kim nh b1 tin hnh tng t nh kim nh b0. Hm hi quy sau khi kim nh l y = 1.61 x. 5.2 Phn tch hi quy bi trong Excel 5.2.1 c lng cc tham s ca m hnh hi quy bi Trong Excel c hm LINEST c lng cc tham s ca m hnh hi qui bi tng t nh chc nng ca hm slope v hm intercept. C php ca hm linest nh sau: =linest(known_ys, [known_xs],[const],[stat]) Trong : Known_ys: vng a ch cha bin ph thuc y Known_xs: vng a ch cha cc bin c lp x1, .., xk. Const: hng s chn m hnh hi quy. Nu const = 1 (TRUE- mc nh) th b0 c mt trong m hnh hi quy. Nu const = 0 (FALSE) th b qua b0 (b0 =0). Stat: ty chn hin th cc tham s thng k. Nu stat =1 (TRUE, mc inh) th tnh ton cc tham s thng k. Nu stat = 0 (FALSE) th khng tnh cc tham s ny. Kt qu tr v l mt ma trn c s ct ty thuc vo s bin c lp ca m hnh hi qui. Hnh 4.12 minh ha ma trn kt qu ca linest vi const =1 v stat = 1. (CSE)

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 4. 13 Kt qu tr v t hm linest

Trong : mn , mn-1,.., m1, b: cc h s bk, bk-1, ..,b1, b0 ca m hnh hi qui sen, sen-1,.., se1, seb: Sai s chun ca cc h s tng ng. r2: H s tng quan bi R2 sey: Sai s ca hm hi quy. F: gi tr kim nh F df: bc t do ca hi qui. df = n-k nu const = 0. df = n-k-1 nu const =1. ssreg: Tng bnh phng sai lch do hi qui (Sum of Square Regression) ssresid: Tng bnh phng cc sai lch do ngu nhin (Sum of Square Residual) V d: 4.5. C thng k v s lng t bn c (y), gi xng (x1), s tng dn s (x2), v s lng ng giao thng c xy dng trong 15 nm. Gi thit c quan h tuyn tnh gia y v xj. Hy c lng cc h s ca hm hi quy.
S xe bn c (nghn chic) 159 160 163 166 167 167 168 167 167.9 168.9 169 169 170 171 172 s tng dn s (tr ngi) 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 66.7 66.9 67.4 67.9 68 68.5 68.8 68.9 S con ng mi 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 18 17 18

nm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

gi xng ($/galon) 1.62 1.667 1.69 1.7 1.72 1.73 1.736 1.74 1.75 1.755 1.756 1.77 1.767 1.756 1.77

Hnh 4.13 trnh by cch nhp d liu v kt qu c lng cc tham s ca hm hi qui mu.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 4. 14 Kt qu c lng tham s ca hi qui bi bng hm linest

5.2.2 S dng trnh regression phn tch hi qui bi. Qui trnh s dng trnh regression phn tch hi qui bi trong Excel ging nh qui trnh phn tch hi qui n. Hnh 4.14 hin th kt qu hi qui v cc tham s thng k phn tch phng sai, kim nh gi thuyt i vi s liu trong v d 4.5. Nh c th thy trong kt qu hi qui phn nh trong hnh 4.14, significance F = 2.7E-07 < a =0.05 nn m hnh hi qui chp nhn c. Gi tr P-value ca b0 v b3 > a nn cc h s ny khng c ngha khi m rng hm hi quy. Kt qu hm hi qui l y = 57.41 x1 + 0.53 x2 5.3 Phn tch hi quy phi tuyn trong Excel Nh nu trong mc 4, cc hm hi quy phi tuyn nu c th tuyn tnh ha c th s dng cc k thut hi quy tuyn tnh nu c lng cc tham s hi qui v kim nh m hnh hi qui. Trong Excel cung cp hm LOGEST c lng cc tham s ca hm hi x x x qui m y =bm1 1 m2 2 ..mn n . C php v cch din gii kt ca ca logest nh c php v cch din gii kt qu ca linest. V d: 4.6 Ngi ta nghin cu mi tng quan gia i lng Y v cc nhn t X1, X2, X3, X4 theo quan h Y= a.X1b1X2b2X3b3X4b4. Hy s dng cc s liu sau y xy dng hm s cn nghin cu tin cy 95%. Y X1 X2 X3 X4 34 12 8.1 5 4.3 34 12.5 8.1 5 4.3 35 12.5 8.2 5 4.5 36 12.8 8.3 6 4.6 33 11 7 6 4 38 14 8.8 6 4.6 31 13 7.5 7 4 37 12.7 8 7 4.8 32 12.6 7.4 7 4.1 39 14 8.9 6.5 4.9 36 13 8.1 6.4 4.5

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 4. 15 Kt qu hi qui s dng regression vi s liu trong v d 4.5

. Logarit ha hai v nh trong hnh 5.15 thu c hm hi quy mu theo dng ln Y = ln a + b1ln X1 + b2ln X2 + b3ln X3 + b4 ln X4 S dng trnh ci thm regression c lng cc tham s hi qui, kt qu tr v nh trong hnh 4.16. c gi t kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh v kim nh gi thuyt v cc tham s ca m hnh.

6. D BO KINH T
D bo l phn on nhng s kin s xy ra trong tng lai trn c s phn tch khoa hc cc d liu ca qu kh v hin ti nh mt s m hnh ton hc. D bo kinh t l vic a ra cc d bo nhng s kin kinh t s xy ra trong tng lai da trn c s phn tch khoa hc cc s liu kinh t ca qu kh v hin ti. Ty theo tm ca d bo ngi ta phn thnh d bo di hn, d bo trung hn, d bo ngn hn. Theo kt qu d bo phn chia thnh d bo nh tnh v d bo nh lng Cc phng php d bo hay s dng phng php hi quy tng quan, phng php ngoi suy thng k.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 4. 16 Logarit ha chuyn hm CD thnh hm tuyn tnh

Hnh 4. 17 Kt qu hi quy vi d liu trong hnh 4.16

6.1 D bo bng phng php hi quy tng quan Sau khi kim nh v nh gi m hnh hi qui, ngi ta thay cc gi tr ca cc bin c lp vo phng trnh hi qui d bo.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

V d 4.7. S dng cc s liu ca v d 4.3


Thng Gi tr sn xut (triu USD) in nng tiu th (triu Kwh) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

4.51 3.58 4.31 5.06 5.64 4.99 5.29 5.83 4.71 5.61 4.91 4.19 2.48 2.26 2.47 2.77 2.99 3.05 3.18 3.46 3.03 3.26 2.67 2.53

Hy d bo gi tr sn xut nu chi ph in nng l 3.2 triu Kwh. T kt qu hi qui trong mc 5.1, phng trnh hi qui l y = 1.61 x. Thay x= 3.2 vo phng trnh tnh c y = 5.15 (triu USD) V d 4.8. S dng s liu trong v d 4.5. Hy d bo s xe bo s xe bn c khi gi xng l $2/gallon v dn s tng 70 nghn.
nm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 S xe bn c (nghn chic) 159 160 163 166 167 167 168 167 167.9 168.9 169 169 170 171 172 s tng dn s (nghn ngi) 55 56 58 60 63 65 66 66.7 66.9 67.4 67.9 68 68.5 68.8 68.9 S con ng mi 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 18 17 18

gi xng ($/galon) 1.62 1.667 1.69 1.7 1.72 1.73 1.736 1.74 1.75 1.755 1.756 1.77 1.767 1.756 1.77

Phng trnh hi qui sau khi kim nh (mc 5.2) l y = 57.41 x1 + 0.53 x2. . Thay cc gi tr x1 = 2, x2 = 70 vo phng trnh, c y = 152.17 (nghn chic). 6.2 D bo nhanh s dng cc hm ca Excel Trong Excel c mt s hm gip c th d bo nhanh khng cn phi c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy v khng cn phi kim nh mc ph hp ca phng trnh hi quy cng nh gi thuyt v s tn ti ca cc tham s hi quy. Cc hm bao gm Forecast, Trend, Growth. 6.2.1 D bo nhanh s dng cc hm tuyn tnh 6.2.1.1.Hm Forecast

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Hm forecast d bo theo phng php hi quy tuyn tnh n theo c php sau: =forecast(x, known_ys, known_xs) Trong : x: gi tr ca bin c lp x dng d bo known_y: cc gi tr quan st ca bin ph thuc y. known_x: cc gi tr quan st ca bin c lp x. V d 4.9. S dng s liu ca v d 4.3. Dng forecast d bo gi tr sn xut khi mc tiu th in nng l 3.2 triu Kwh. Hnh 4.17 trnh by cch nhp d liu v s dng hm forecast. 6.2.1.2.Hm trend Hm trend d bo theo phng php hi quy tuyn tnh vi c php sau: =trend(known_ys, known_xs,new_x,[const]) Trong : Const: ty chn m hnh hi quy. Nu const = 1 (TRUE - mc nh) th hi quy c tnh c h s b0. Nu const = 0 (FALSE) th b qua h s b0. Cc tham s khc tng t nh hm forecast. Hnh 4.17 trnh by cch s dng hm trend vi const =1. 6.2.2 D bo nhanh s dng hm phi tuyn Trong Excel c hm growth dng d bo nhanh theo hm y = bmx theo c php sau: =growth(known_ys, known_xs,new_x,[const]) Trong : Const nhn gi tr logic quyt nh m hnh hi quy. Const = 1 (TRUE mc nh) th tnh h s b. Nu const = 0 (FALSE) th gn cho b=1. Cc tham s khc tng t nh hm trend. c gi t ly v d cho hm growth. 6.3.D bo bng cc phng php ngoi suy thng k 6.3.1 Phng php trung bnh ng Phng php trung bnh ng (moving average) cn c gi l phng php bnh qun din

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) tin. Theo phng php ny, s tnh ton k t+1 bng bnh qun ca cc s quan st n k trc . C thm vo mt k pha tng lai th b bt i mt k qu kh

Hnh 4. 18 S dng hm ca Excel d bo

. Ft +1

Dt + Dt -1 + ... + Dt -n n
Ft: s tnh ton k t Dt: s qua st k t n: s k tnh bnh qun

Trong :

Trong Excel c trnh ci thm moving average dng d bo theo phng php trung bnh ng. Truy cp menu Tools / Data Analysis / Moving average. Hp thoi moving average nh hnh 4.18 xut hin.

Hnh 4. 19 Hp thoi moving average

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Trong hnh 4.18, mc interval nhp s k tnh bnh qun. Ty chn Chat Output v th ca dy d liu quan st v d liu tnh ton. Ty chn Standard Errors hin th sai s gia s quan st v s tnh ton. V d 4.10 C s liu thng k v doanh thu mt ca hng trong mt nm nh bng sau
Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Doanh thu (triu ) 10 12 13 16 19 23 26 30 28 18 16 14

Vi s k tnh bnh qun n=3. Hy tnh ton v d bo doanh thu cho thng 1 nm tip sau. Hnh 4.19 trnh by kt qu d bo v th ca s liu quan st v s tnh ton s dng trnh moving average. 6.3.2. Phng php san bng hm m Phng php san bng hm m (Exponential Smoothing) cn c tn gi l phng php iu ha m. Phng php ny a ra cc d bo cho giai on trc v thm vo mt lng iu chnh c c lng d bo cho giai on k tip. S iu chnh ny l mt t l no ca sai s d bo giai on trc v c tnh bng cch nhn s d bo ca giai on trc vi h s a nm gia 0 v 1. H s ny gi l h s iu ha.
Ft +1 = F t +a ( D t - F t )

Trong : Ft: s tnh ton k t Dt: s quan st k t a : h s san bng Trong Excel c trnh ci thm Exponential Smoothing dng d bo theo phng php san bng hm m. Hnh 4.21 trnh by hp thoi Exponential smoothing. Trong hnh 4.21, mc nhp damping factor nhp h s san bng a. V d 4.11. S dng s liu ca v d 4.10. Hy d bo theo phng php san bng hm m vi a = 0.3.

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Hnh 4. 20 D bo bng moving average

Hnh 4. 21 Hp thoi Exponential smoothing

Hnh 4.22 trnh by kt qu d bo theo phng php san bng hm m vi a =0.3.

Hnh 4. 22 D bo bng Exponential Smoothing

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BI TP CHNG 4
Bi 4.1 Mt cng ty k ngh chnh xc ngh rng cc dch v k ngh ca cng ty c cung ng cho cc cng ty xy dng th c quan h trc tip n s hp ng xy dng trong vng theo m hnh tuyn tnh. Hy xy dng mt phng trnh hi qui cho d bo mc nhu cu v dch v ca cng ty v kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh . S dng phng trnh hi qui d bo mc nhu cu trong 4 qu ti. c tnh tr gi hp ng 4 qu ti l 260, 290, 300 v 270 (VT: 10 Triu ng).

Nm 1

Qi 1 2 3 4

Nhu cu ca cng ty (10 tr ) 8 10 15 9 12 13 12 16

Tr gi hp ng thc hin (10 tr ) 150 170 190 170 180 190 200 220

1 2 3 4

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 1. Bi 4.2 C thng k v chiu cao v trng lng ca 12 ph n M tui t 30 n 39. 1. Hy tm tng quan gia chiu cao (y) v trng lng (x). Quan h ny c m rng cho tng th c khng? 2. Hy xy dng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh v kim nh cc h s ca m hnh hi quy. 3. Nu cho rng gia chiu cao v trng lng c quan h y = bmx th m hnh c ph hp khng? Cao(m) 1.47 1.5 1.52 1.55 1.57 1.60 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.7 1.73 1.75 TL(kg) 52.21 53.12 54.48 55.84 57.2 58.57 59.93 61.29 63.11 64.47 66.28 68.1 Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 2. Bi 4.3. C thng k v thu nhp quc dn (Y), sn lng in (X1), sn lng than (X2), sn lng lng thc (X3) sn lng thp (X4). Hy c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy mu

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) bit rng Y v X c quan h tuyn tnh. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh. D bo Y vi X = (5.2; 65.1; 275.3; 37.8). Y 733.300 750.900 747.600 727.600 694.400 702.600 714.000 717.630 750.000 X1 3.089 3.503 3.817 3.870 3.706 3.851 4.170 4.378 5.000 X2 76.200 79.400 77.000 74.000 64.400 63.100 66.300 62.900 66.700 X3 283.500 274.500 268.000 265.700 259.600 256.800 259.300 263.400 273.100 X4 15.844 19.835 21.797 24.759 28.093 31.121 32.759 34.556 36.788

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 3. Bi 4.4 C s liu th nghim v quan h gia y, x1, x2, x3 theo hm ln y = a0 + a1ln x1 + a2 ln x + a3 ln x3 + a4 (ln x1)(ln x 2) + a5 (ln x2)(ln x3) + a6 (ln x1)(ln x3) + a7 (ln x1)2 + a8 (ln x2)2 + a9 (ln x3)2.
x1 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.0025 0.0075 0.0025 0.0075 0.0025 0.0075 0.0025 0.0075 0.005 x2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.45 x3 25.12 25.12 37.68 37.68 25.12 25.12 37.68 37.68 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 y 58 80 71 104 52 88 63 108 44 82 68 118 84

Hy c lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy v kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh v cc tham s khi m rng m hnh cho tng th. Trong cc xj, gi tr no nh hng nhiu nht n y, ti sao? Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 4. Bi 4.5 Nghin cu v chi ph chm sc (x) nng sut la (y) trn 10 tha rung cho ta kt qu: Bit y c quan h tuyn tnh vi x. Hy s dng cc hm ca Excel d bo nhanh nng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) sut mc chm sc 13 USD/ha. nng sut (nghn lb/ha) Chi ph chm sc (USD/ha)

9,9 10.7

10,2 10.8

11 12.1

11,6 12.5

11,8 12.2

12,5 12.8

12,8 12.4

13,5 11.8

14,3 11.8

14,4 12.6

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 5. Bi 4.6 Trong iu tra mc sng dn c nm 2004 (VHLSS2004) ngi ta cho rng tng gi tr sn phm (y) l hm tuyn tnh ca cc yu t sau : chi ph ging (x1), chi ph phn bn (x2), chi ph thuc tr su (x3). S dng cc s liu sau y, hy cho bit m hnh c ph hp khng v c th suy rng c mc ngha 5% hay khng ?
Y 2267 1601 1465 2642 780 1345 1300 2080 3375 2803 x1 355 210 165 520 97 173 200 192 277 155 x2 1245 560 570 920 160 420 230 950 1360 1280 x3 112 140 150 410 40 65 80 110 224 224

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 4, bi s 6.

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CHNG 5: PHN TCH D LIU THNG K 1.CC THAM S C BN CA MU THC NGHIM


1.1 Mt s tham s c bn c trng cho mu thc nghim Tng th (hay m ng) l ton b cc quan st c th c ca mt bin vi mt phn b xc sut xc nh. Mu l mt b phn ca tng th c quan st nh th nghim hay iu tra nghin cu mt tng th cha bit quy lut phn b xc sut. Cc tham s c trng ca tng th c th tnh ton c mt cch trc tip sau khi nghin cu ton b tng th. Song v nhiu l do hn ch nh quy m tng th qu ln, chi ph nghin cu v tnh ton, mc km tin cy ca s liu iu tra nn vic nghin cu ton b tng th gp nhiu kh khn, tn km m vn khng thu c kt qu mong mun. Hn na trong thc t nghin cu kinh t kinh t x hi chng ta c th gp trng hp khng bit chnh xc v kch thc tng th (coi n v hn). Do trong nghin cu ngi ta p dng phng php chn mu, chn ra t tng th n phn t no c tnh cht i din. Cc phng php chn mu c trnh by c th trong mn hc thng k, nhng cui cng ngi nghin cu phi chn c mt mu t tng th mt cch ngu nhin v c tnh i din cao. Mu ngu nhin kch thc n l tp hp ca n bin ngu nhin c lp X1,X2,...,Xn c thnh lp t bin ngu nhin X v c cng quy lut phn phi xc sut vi X. Mu ngu nhin k hiu l: W = (X1, X2, ..., Xn) Khi vic thc hin mt php th i vi mu ngu nhin W chnh l thc hin mt php th i vi mi thnh phn ca mu. Gi s X1 nhn gi tr x1; X2 nhn gi tr x2... tng t vi Xn nhn gi tr xn. Tp hp n gi tr x1, x2, ...xn to thnh mt gi tr ca mu ngu nhin, hay cn gi l mt mu c th. Mu c th k hiu: w = (x1, x2,..., xn) Phn b thc nghim l quy lut phn b ca dy tr s quan st c mu m c th khi qut thnh phn b l thuyt. Cc thng k cng vi quy lut phn phi xc sut ca chng l c s suy rng cc thng tin ca mu cho du hiu nghin cu ca tng th. Cc thng k c trng cho mu ngu nhin c chia thnh hai loi: Cc thng k c trng cho cho xu hng trung tm ca phn phi ca mu nh trung bnh mu, trung v, mt... Cc thng k c trng cho phn tn ca phn phi mu nh khong bin thin, phng sai, lch chun...

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1.1.1.Trung bnh mu Nu khng tnh n tn s ca mi ln quan st hay thu thp thng tin th s trung bnh cng ca mu c xc nh bng cng thc:
X = 1 1 n ( X 1 + X 2 + ... + X n ) = X i n n i =1
(5. 1)

Trong trng hp c tn s th s trung bnh mu c xc nh:

n X + n 2 X 2 + ... + nk X k X = 1 1 = n1 + n 2 + n3 + ...n k

n X
i =1 i

(5. 2)

Trong ni l cc tn s xut hin. S bnh qun c xc nh theo cng thc ny cn gi l s bnh qun gia quyn ( ni gi l cc gi tr quyn s). 1.1.2. S trung bnh ton phng S trung bnh ton phng tnh theo cng thc 5.3.

Z =

1 n 2 Xi n i =1

(5. 3)

1.1.3.Phng sai mu Phng sai o lng mc phn tn ca cc phn t so vi k vng ton ca mu. Phng sai tnh theo cng thc 5.4
S2= 1 k (X i - X )2 n - 1 1=1
(5. 4)

1.1.4. lch chun lch tiu chun c cng n v o vi i lng ngu nhin do n dng nghin cu s phn tn ca i lng cn nghin cu theo n v tnh. K hiu lch chun l s v tnh ton theo cng thc 5.5 nh sau
1 (X i - X )2 n -1

s =

(5. 5)

1.1.5. Mt s tham s khc

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) H s bin ng: H s bin ng o lng mc bin ng ca mu so vi gi tr trung bnh ca n.
CV =

d x100 X

(5. 6)

Phm vi bin ng: Phm vi bin ng l khong cch t gi tr nh nht n gi tr ln nht ca mu.
R = Xmax Xmin. (5. 7)

Mod: tham s ny cho bit trong mu gi tr no lp li nhiu nht. S trung v: Vi mu c s phn t l s l, s trung v l s ng gia dy s. Vi mu c s phn t l s chn, s trung v l trung bnh cng ca hai phn t ng gia. 1.2 Cc tham s c trng cho hnh dng phn b ca mu m t hnh dng phn b ca mu, ngi ta s dng mt s tham s sau: 1.2.1. i xng i xng c trng cho mc cn xng ca phn b thc nghim xung quanh gi tr trung bnh mu. i xng tnh theo cng thc 5.8.
n x -x Sk = i s (n - 1)(n - 2)
3

(5. 8)

Nu Sk = 0 phn b i xng. Sk < 0 ng cong lch sang tri, Sk > 0 ng cong lch sang phi. 1.2.2. nhn nhn c trng cho quan h ca nh ca phn phi thc nghim so vi phn phi chun. Nu nhn l s dng ngha l phn b thc nghim c nh cao hn phn phi chun. Nu nhn l s m th phn b thc nghim c nh thp hn phn b chun. Cng thc 5.9 tnh ton nhn ca phn b thc nghim
4 n(n + 1) 3(n - 1)2 xi - x (n - 1)(n - 2)(n - 3) s (n - 2)(n - 3)

(5. 9)

1.3 Cc hm tnh ton cc tham s c trng cho phn b thc nghim Trong Excel, nhm hm thng k (statistics) dng tnh ton cc tham s thng k, trong c cc hm tnh ton cc tham s c trng cho phn b.

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) Hm average tnh trung bnh mu theo c php sau: = average(number1, number2,..) Hm max tnh gi tr ln nht ca dy s = max(number1, number2,..) Hm min tnh gi tr nh nht ca dy s = min(number1, number2,..) Hm var tnh phng sai mu theo c php = var (number1, number2,..) Hm stdev tnh lch chun ca mu theo c php = stdev(number1, number2,..) Hm median tnh gi tr trung v ca dy s theo c php = median(number1, number2,..) Hm skew tnh ton i xng ca phn b thc nghim theo c php = skew(number1, number2,..) Hm kurt tnh ton nhn ca phn b thc nghim = kurt(number1, number2,..) V d 5.1 C thng k v nng sut ch (kg/so) nh sau 66 65 76 68 66 71 78 80 77 71 63 66 68 68 66 71

Hy tnh ton cc tham s c trng cho mu Hnh 5.1 minh ha cch b tr d liu trong Excel v cch s dng cc hm ca Excel tnh cc tham s c trng cho mu.

2. BIU PHN B THC NGHIM


Biu phn b thc nghim (histogram) m t s ln xut hin ca mt mu thng tin trong mt tp d liu. Mi mu thng tin gi l bin, mi ln s bin lp li c hiu l tn sut xut hin ca n.

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Hnh 5. 1 Tnh ton cc tham s c trng mu thc nghim

Trong Excel s dng trnh ci thm Histogram v biu phn b thc nghim. Quy trnh thc hin nh sau: (1). Nhp d liu quan st vo bng tnh. (2). Chn Tool trn Menu bar. (3). Chn Data Analysis, hp thoi hin ra chn Histogram, OK Hp thoi Histogram xut hin nh trong hnh 5.2

Hnh 5. 2 Hp thoi Histogram

Input Range: Khai bo vng d liu quan st Bin Range: Vng d liu c ly nhm t

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Output Range: Vng kit xut kt qu Cumulative Percentage: Tnh phn trm s tch lu Chart Output: V biu phn b tn s tuyt i v tch lu. C th c mt lc Pareto bng cch chn Pareto. Mt lc Pareto s dng cng mt d liu nh mt lc tiu chun, nhng cc bin c biu din theo th t gim dn v th cho nn ct u tin trong lc Pareto thng l cao nht. Phn trm s tch lu l phn trm ca d liu bao gm bin u tin n bin hin hnh. Thng s ny rt hiu qu vi lc Pareto v n ch ra phn trm ca tng m bin ln nht t. Nu mc Bin Range khng c nhp th Excel t ng thc hin vi cc Bin nh sn. Nu ch mun hin th mt s Bin no hoc mt s Bin nh sn th nhp Bin vo vng Bin Range di mt hng hay ct trong bng tnh. V d 5.2 C thng k v doanh s ca 15 ca hng in t trong th x (n v tnh triu ). Hy m t phn b thc nghim ny bng biu histogram. STT DT 1 5 2 5.6 3 6 4 6.5 5 7.5 6 8 7 8.5 8 9 9 10 10 13 11 14 12 14 13 15 14 15 15 16

Hnh 5.3 trnh by cch b tr d liu v biu histogram ca mu thc nghim vi bin range do Excel t chn.

Hnh 5. 3 Biu histogram

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3. CNG C THNG K M T
Trong Excel c trnh ci thm Descriptive Statistics tnh ton cc tham s c trng cho mu v hnh dng ca phn b thc nghim. Truy cp cng c ny t menu Tools / Data Analysis / Descriptive Statistics. Hp thoi Descriptive Statistics xut hin nh hnh 5.4

Hnh 5. 4 Cng c thng k m t

Input Range: Vng d liu nhp Chn mc Labels in First row, khi dng u tin trong vng d liu c cha tn bin Kth Largest: Tr quan st ln th k. Kth Smalllest: Tr quan st nh th k. Tu vo mc ch nghin cu m chn thc hin theo nhm dng hoc ct ca d liu quan st. Sau khi in y cc mc cn thit chn Ok, kt qu c kt xut ra vng c ch nh vi tt c c tham s thng k m t nh trung bnh, trung v, lch, mod. Hnh 5.5 minh ha cc tham s do cng c thng k m t hin th s dng d liu trong v d 5.1.

Hnh 5. 5 Kt qu thng k m t

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4. PHN TCH PHNG SAI


Khi cn nghin cu, phn tch s bin ng ca mt tng th thng qua mt bin ngu nhin (ch tiu nghin cu) ngi ta thng dng cc phng php kim nh v c lng.Tuy nhin phng php ny ch p dng c khi ch tiu nghin cu ch chu tc ng ca mt nhn t. Nu ch tiu nghin cu chu tc ng t nhiu nhn t hoc mt nhn t nhng cc mc khc nhau th phi phn tch phng sai mi thy c s bin ng. Ngoi ra phn tch phng sai c th cho bit nh hng ca nhn t no ti tng th nu c. 4.1 M hnh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t Bin ngu nhin gc X tun theo quy lut phn phi chun N ( m , s 2 ) v mt nhn t F tc ng ln X c k mc khc nhau. Nh vy ng vi mi nhn t i c bin ngu nhin Xi v chng cng tun theo quy lut phn phi chun N ( m i , s 2 i )). Nu tin hnh quan st Xi bng cch ly mt mu ngu nhin kch thc ni th: Xki = m + ai + eki (k=1,.. ,ni). Trong ai c trng cho s khc bit gi tr trung bnh m ca bin ngu nhin X di tc ng ca nhn t F mc i v eki l cc sai s ngu nhin (gi thit cc sai s ngu nhin c lp vi nhau), cng tun theo quy lut phn phi chun. Tng th 1 X11 X12 ..... X1n1 2 X21 X22 ..... X2n2 ... ... ... ... ... k Xxk1 Xk2 ..... Xknk

Cc ch tiu cn tnh ton l: Trung bnh mc i: Trung bnh mu

Xi = X =

1 ni

X
j =1

ni

ij

1 k n i =1

X
j =1

ni

ij
k

Sai lch gia cc nhm: SSG (Sum of Squares between-groups): Q1 = ni ( X i - X ) 2


i =1

Sai lch trong ni b nhm: SSW (Sum of Squares within-groups):


Q2 = ( X ij - X ) 2
i =1 j =1 k ni

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Tng cc lch SST (Total Sum of Squares): Q = Q1 + Q2 = ( X ij - X ) 2


i =1 j =1

ni

Phng sai gy ra do tc ng ca nhn t S1 = Phng sai ton phn: S = Thng k F =


MSG S1 = MSW S 2
Q n -1

Q1 Q v S 2 = 2 k -1 n -1

V k m ng c phn phi chun, F c phn phi Fisher Snedecor vi k -1; n-k bc t do. Bi ton kim nh c pht biu thnh: H0: a1 = a2 =... = ai = 0 H1: Tn ti t nht mt ai khc 0. Hoc H0: m1 = m2 =... = mi H1: Tn ti t nht mt cp m khc nhau. Vi min bc b l: Wa = ( F = S1/S2; Ftn > fa(k-1, n-k)).

Ngun bin ng

Tng bnh phng (SS) SSG SSW

Bc t do (D.f)

Trung bnh bnh phng (MS)

Gia cc nhm Ni b nhm Tng cng

k-1 n-k

SST

n-1

4.2 M hnh phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc Bin ngu nhin X vi s tc ng ca hai nhn t A, B (trong A v B khng c tng tc hay ni cch khc l tc ng ring r), khi s sai khc gia cc gi tr trung bnh c th l do: Tc ng ca nhn t A Tc ng ca nhn t B Sai s ngu nhin

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) V A v B khng tng tc nn coi nh khng c s tc ng ng thi ca c hai nhn t A, B. Gi mc tc ng ca hai nhn t l kA v kB. Cc ch tiu cn tnh ton l: Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi nhn t A: Q A = k A ( X i - X ) 2
i

Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi nhn t B: QB = k B ( X j - X ) 2


j

Tng bnh phng lch ton b vi kt qu vi trung bnh chung: 2 Q = X ij - k A .k B ( X ) 2


ij

H s xc nh: R 2 =

Q A + QB Q

Phng sai do nhn t A gy ra: S A = Phng sai do nhn t B gy ra: Phng sai do ngu nhin: S R =

QA kA -1

QB kB -1

QR (k A - 1)(k B - 1) S S Hai i lng thng k FA = FA = A v FB = FB = B SR SR Cn kim nh 2 cp gi thuyt:


Cp th nht: Cp th hai: HA0: m1 = m2 = ... = mkA HA1: Tn ti t nht 1 cp khc nhau HB0: m1 = m2 =...= mj =... = mkB HB1: Tn ti t nht 1 cp khc nhau Min bc b HA0: FA> fa (k-1,(kA-1)(kB-1)); Min bc b HB0: FB> fa (kB-1,(kA-1)(kB-1)); Ngun Tng Bc t do bnh phng SSG kA-1 SSB SSE SST kB -1 (kA -1)(kB -1) n-1 Trung bnh bnh phng
SSG k -1 SSB MSB = kB -1 SSE MSE = (k A - 1)(k B - 1) MSG =

Thng k F

Gia cc ct Gia cc dng Sai s Tng cng

MSG MSE MSB F B= MSE FA =

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

4.3 M hnh phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc Phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc i khi cn gi l phn tch phng sai hai nhn t vi nhiu quan st trong mt . Trong m hnh ny, mi mt nhm i tng tng ng vi mt cp mc nhn t (i,j) cn phi c s quan st ln hn 1. Gi s tt c cc nhm u c s quan st l nh nhau v bng r cn gi l mu cn bng th m hnh hai nhn t tc ng l: Xkij = m +ai + bj +dij +ekij. Trong ai v bj l cc hng s c trng cho s khc bit v gi tr trung bnh m ca X do tc ng ca hai nhn t A,B, cn dij l hng s c trng cho s khc bit nhng c gy ra bi tc ng tng hp ca hai nhn t mc i,j Cc ch tiu cn tnh ton l: Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi nhn t A (SSB) Q A = k A r ( X j - X ) 2
j

Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi nhn t B (SSG) QB = k B r ( X i - X ) 2


i

Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi hai nhn t tc ng ng thi (SSI) Q AB = r ( X ji - X i - X j - X ) 2


i j

Q: Tng bnh phng lch ton b Q = QA+QB+QAB QR: Tng bnh phng lch gy ra bi cc nhn t ngu nhin khc. T tnh ton c cc phng sai: SA;SB;SAB;SR Cc thng k dng kim nh gi thuyt l: FA =

SA S S ; FB = B ; FAB = AB SR SR SR
Trung bnh T s bnh F phng MSG MSB MSI MSE FA FB FAB

Ngun bin ng

Tng bnh phng SSG SSB SSI SSE SST

Bc t do

Gia cc nhm Gia cc hng Gia cc nhm v hng Sai s Tng cng

(kA-1) (kB-1) (kA-1)(kB-1) kA.kB(r-1) kAkBr -1

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Cn kim nh 3 cp gi thuyt thng k: Cp 1: H0A : m1A = m2A = ..= mkA (Trung bnh ch tiu nghin cu theo ct l nh nhau) H1A : Tn ti t nht mt cp m khc nhau Cp 2: H0B : m1B = m2B = ..= mkB (Trung bnh ch tiu nghin cu theo hng l nh nhau) H1B : Tn ti t nht mt cp m khc nhau Cp 3: H0AB : m1AB = m2AB = ..= mkAB (khng c s nh hng qua li gia cc ch tiu theo ct v hng n ch tiu nghin cu) H1AB : Tn ti t nht mt cp m khc nhau Vi min bc b HoA l FA > f a(kA -1, (kA)(kB)(r-1) Min bc b HoB l FB > f a(kB -1, (kA)(kB)(r-1)) Min bc b HoAB l FAB > f a((kA -1)(kb-1), (kA)(kB)(r-1))

5. QUY TRNH PHN TCH PHNG SAI TRONG EXCEL


Quy trnh chun b bi ton trong Excel bao gm hai cng on l xc nh m hnh phn tch phng sai v t chc d liu quan st ln bng tnh. Vic xc nh m hnh phn tch phng sai l tr li cu hi u l bin nghin cu, u l cc nhn t ng thi xc nh xem c bao nhiu nhn t cn nghin cu s tc ng n ch tiu nghin cu. 5.1 Phn tch phng sai mt nhn t trong Excel. Nhp d liu vo Excel. D liu c th b tr theo ct hoc theo hng. Vic b tr theo ct hay theo hng khng lm nh hng n kt qu phn tch. Truy cp menu Tools / Data Analysis / Anova Single Factor. Hp thoi Anova Single Factor xut hin nh hnh 5.6

Hnh 5. 6 Hp thoi Anova single factor

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

V d 5.3 Mt nh sn xut nc gii kht ang xem xt 3 mu lon cho mt lai nc ngt: , vng v xanh nh hng n doanh thu nh th no. Nh sn xut chn 16 ca hng gi bn cc lon nc ngt n bn. Nhng lon mu c gi n 6 ca hng. Nhng lon mu vng c a n 5 ca hng khc v s mu xanh cng c gi n 5 ca hng cn li. Sau mt vi ngy nh sn xut kim tra cc ca hng th doanh s bn ca nc ngt nh sau: n v tnh: 1000 ng 43 52 59 76 61 81 Vi mc ngha 5% hy kim nh gi thuyt cho rng mu sc ca v lon khng nh hng n doanh thu ca nc ngt. Hnh 5.7 minh ha cch b tr d liu trong Excel v kt qu tr v t Anova:Single factor. Nh c th thy t hnh 5.7, F < F crit nn khng cn c khoa hc kt lun rng mu ca v lon khng nh hng n donh thu. Cng c th c cng kt lun nu cn c vo Pvalue. Hnh 5.7 cho thy P-Value > a =5% nn bc b gi thuyt cho rng mu ca v lon nc ngt khng nh hng n doanh thu ca nc ngt. c gi c th th vi trng hp b tr d liu theo dng. 5.2 Phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc trong Excel Quy trnh tin hnh phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc trong Excel tin hnh tng t nh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t. Sau khi nhp d liu v bng tnh, truy cp menu Tools / Data Analysis / Anova: Two factor without Replication. Hp thoi Anova: Two factor without Replication xut hin nh hnh 5.8. Cn ch rng khi nhp d liu vo mc Input Range phi ly c dng nhn v ct nhn ca vng d liu V d 5.4 nghin cu nh hng ca mt loi cm mi sn xut TA08 n lng d hormon c trong tht ln, ngi ta tin hnh th nghim trn 4 ging ln khc nhau (G1 G4) vi khu phn n c pha TA08 theo t l khc nhau (k hiu K1 K4). S liu thu c nh bng sau. Vng 52 37 38 64 74 Xanh 61 29 38 53 79

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 5. 7 Kt qu phn tch phng sai mt nhn t

Hnh 5. 8 Hp thoi phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc

Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim nh gi thuyt cho rng cch pha ch thc n v ging ln khc nhau u c lng d hormon trong tht l nh nhau. Hnh 5.9 trnh by cch b tr d liu trong Excel v kt qu phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc. K1 K4 K7 K10 G1 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.23 G2 2.2 2 2.7 2.45

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

G3 G4

2.32 2.5

2.3 2.6

2 1.9

2.5 2.1

Kt qu phn tch phng sai trong hnh 5.9 cho thy khng c s khoa hc kt lun rng cc ging ln khc nhau c lng d hormon trong tht khc nhau v cng khng c s kt lun rng cch pha ch thc n vi hm lng cm TA08 khc nhau khin cho lng d hormon trong tht ln l khc nhau. 5.3 Phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc trong Excel Sau khi nhp d liu vo bng tnh Excel, truy cp menu Tools / Data Analysis / Anova: Two factor With Replication. Hp thoi nh hnh 5.10 xut hin. Quy trnh nhp d liu phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc vo Excel cn ch khai bo s dng trong mi mu d liu nh hp thoi trong hnh 5.10. Nu nhp d liu sai s dn n kt qu sai hoc khng chy c chng trnh. kim tra xem d liu nhp ng cha, sau khi chy chng trnh phn tch phng sai, trong kt qu cho thy bc t do tng cng bng s quan st tr mt l nhp ng.

Hnh 5. 9 Kt qu phn tch phng sai hai nhn t khng tng tc

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 5. 10 Hp thoi phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc

V d 5.5 Gn y s cnh tranh gia hng Kd v Fj tr nn mnh lit. Hng Kd ang phn tch nhng tm film ca Fj v quyt nh b mt v sng mu ca film Fj. Nh l mt phn ca s phn tch, mt mu ngu nhin gm 5 tm film c chp bi Kd v c x l theo ba qui trnh khc nhau - qui trnh (A), qui trnh (B) v qui trnh (C). Hai hng film Fj v Ag cng c thc hin nh vy o sng mu ca film. Di y l bng chm im sng ca film ba hng. sng cng tt th im cng cao. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim nh gi thuyt cho rng: sng ca film do b mt pha ch ca tng hng sng ca film do quy trnh x l. Quy trnh x l ca tng hng c tc ng khc nhau n sng ca film. Hng Film A Kd Fj Ag 32,34,31,30,37 43,41,44,50,47 23,24,25,21,26 Cc qui trnh x l film B 26,29,27,30,31 32,38,38,40,46 27,30,25,25,27 C 28,28,27,30,32 32,32,36,35,34 25,27,26,22,25

Hnh 5.11 minh ha cch nhp d liu vo Excel v kt qu phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc. Nh kt qu c ch ra trong hnh 5.12. C s nh hng ln n sng ca film do cc hng khc nhau sn xut, do quy trnh x l khc nhau v ng thi s kt hp ca quy trnh x l v cch sn xut ca mi hng cng tc ng nhiu n sng ca film nh.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho)

Hnh 5. 11 B tr d liu trong Excel phn tch phng sai hai nhn t c tng tc

BI TP CHNG 5
Bi 5.1 C ba phng php bn hng khc nhau c mt cng ty p dng. Sau y l s lng sn phm bn ra c thu thp cho ba phng php bn hng. Hy s dng cng c Excel m t cc c trng c bn ca cc s liu thu c t 3 phng php bn hng .
PP 1 PP2 PP3

21 27 18

20 28 17

22 22 19

25 29 24

24 32 20

19 37 17

26 33 19

18 34 22

24 28 20

25 29 21

25 29 24

27 32 18

29 35 18

19 37 22

20 28 21

23 27 21

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 5, bi s 1. Bi 5.2 Ba nh cung cp go xut khu (A, B, C), go xut khu ca mi nh cung cp c chuyn bng tu gm 500 bao. Mu ngu nhin gm 6 tu cho mi nh cung cp c kim tra cn thn, s bao go khng ng tiu chun c xc nh 6 tu nh trong bng sau: Kim nh mc ngha 1% gi thuyt H0 rng trung bnh tng th ca cc bao go trn tu

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) khng ng tiu chun th ging nhau gia 3 nh cung cp ? vt: bao go A 28 37 34 29 31 33 B 22 27 29 20 18 30 C 33 29 39 33 37 38

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 5, bi s 2. Bi 5.3 nghin cu nh hng ca v tr t ca hng v tui ca nhn vin bn hng n chi ph bn hng (nghn /sn phm) ngi ta thu thp s liu thng k 3 ca hng A, B , C vi 5 nhm tui khc nhau. Nhm 1 gm cc nhn vin bn hng c tui < 25. Nhm 2 gm cc nhn vin c tui t 26 n 35. Nhm 3 gm cc nhn vin tui t 36 n 45. Nhm 4 gm cc nhn vin c tui t 46 n 55. Nhm 5 c tui t 56 n Kt qu thu c nh bng sau. Nhm tui 1 2 3 4 5 Ca hng A 25,0 24,8 26,1 24,1 24,0 Ca hng B 24,0 23,5 24,9 23,9 24,4 Ca hng C 25,9 25,2 25,7 24,0 25,1

Vi mc ngha 1%, hy kim tra kt lun rng tui ca nhn vin bn hng, a im ca hng khng nh hng n chi ph bn hng. Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 5, bi s 3. Bi 5.4. Vi nghi ng rng nhng ngi tui tr khhi bn hng nhng a im gn khu vc c iu kin tip cn nhiu hn vi cc phng tin gii tr th chi ph bn hng c th tng ln, ngi ta thu thp d liu v chi ph bn hng (1000 /sp) cho 5 nhm tui nh bi 5.3 ti ba ca hng A, B, v C nh bng sau. Vi mc ngha 5%. Hy kim nh gi thuyt cho rng tui ca nhn vin bn hng,v tr

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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Trn Cng Nghip - Gio trnh Tin hc ng dng (bn tho) t ca hng khng nh hng n chi ph bn hng v kim nh kt lun rng khng c l do g nghi ng rng nhn vin tr bn hng nhng ca c iu kin gii tr cao hn th lm chi ph bn hng tng.

Nhm tui 1

Ca hng A 25,0 25,4 25,2 24,8 24,8 24,5 26,1 26,3 26,2 24,1 24,4 24,4 24,0 23,6 24,1

Ca hng B 24,0 24,4 23,9 23,5 23,8 23,8 24,9 24,9 24,9 23,9 24,0 23,8 24,4 24,4 24,1

Ca hng C 25,9 25,8 25,4 25,2 25,0 25,4 25,7 25,9 25,5 24,0 23,6 23,5 25,1 25,2 25,3

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 5, bi s 4. Bi 5.5 Mt gim c ca mt x nghip ch bin thc phm ang quan tm n chi tiu ca mi h gia nh trong mt thng cho sn phm ca ng. Nhng mu ngu nhin c lp gm 6 gia nh c thu nhp di 3 triu mt thng, 5 gia nh c thu nhp t 3- 4 triu/thng v 4 gia nh c thu nhp trn 4 triu ng mt thng c chn ra. Chi ph c on hng thng cho thc phm ch bin c chi tiu bi cc gia nh nh sau.
< 3 tr 452 601 528 317 336 394 4 -4 tr 482 516 637 468 492 > 4 tr 507 716 613 498

Ghi bi vo th mc to chng 1 theo dng C:\tenthumuc\tenfile.xls. Trong tenfile bao gm h tn sinh vin ,chng 5, bi s 5.

Phng Thc hnh kinh doanh B mn Tin hc ng dng

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