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T GI HI OI GIAI ON 2000-2011: CC NHN T QUYT NH, MC SAI LCH V TC NG I VI XUT KHU Bo co nghin cu RS - 01 Bn quyn 2012 thuc v y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP ti Vit Nam. Mi s sao chp v lu hnh khng c s ng ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi v UNDP l vi phm bn quyn.
LI GII THIU
Chnh sch t gi lun lun l mt chnh sch v m rt quan trng bi phm vi tc ng ln, nhng tc ng kh lng trc v thng phi nh i gia nhiu mc tiu v m. Trn thc t thng c qu nhiu mc tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc thi chnh sch v d a thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic gim gi ng ni a c th thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thanh ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin nht nh. Mt s nghin cu ch ra rng gia mc tiu n nh t gi thc da trn tiu dng v mc tiu iu chnh iu kin thng mi i khi mu thun do tc ng ca t gi n cc mc gi c ca hng tiu dng v hng ha l u vo cho sn xut l khc nhau. iu cng cho thy tc ng ca t gi n lm pht l khng h n gin v trong mt nn kinh t m, t gi thc nh hng n gi c tng i gia cc hng ha sn xut trong nc v mt hng nhp khu. T gi c th tc ng trc tip n lm pht do vic thay i gi c tnh bng ng bn a ca cc mt hng nhp khu v qua nh hng n ch s gi c. Do , la chn mt ch t gi hi oi ph hp n nh kinh t v m v h tr tng trng di hn c coi l mt u tin trong qun l kinh t hin nay. Vic nh gi din bin v nguyn nhn bin ng ca t gi, ng thi phn tch mi lin h gia chnh sch t gi v tng trng xut
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khu l mt ch m cc i biu Quc hi v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch hin rt quan tm. Nghin cu ny phn tch xu hng t gi v bin ng gn y ca t gi danh ngha v t gi thc, nh gi nhng nhn t tc ng n t gi thc hu hiu v mc sai lch, t xc nh c t gi cn bng v nh gi c VND ang c nh gi cao hay nh gi thp v mc no, v nh lng c tc ng ca thay i t gi n xut khu ca cc mt hng chnh ca Vit Nam gn vi nhng tho lun v khuyn ngh chnh sch t gi trong bi cnh hin nay nc ta. Thng qua phng php nghin cu r rng v nhng bng chng phn tch xc thc, nghin cu a ra nhng kt qu rt hu ch v c tnh thuyt phc cao, p ng c cc nhu cu ca y ban kinh t v cc c quan th hng trong qu trnh tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m. y l nghin cu u tin trong mt chui nhng nghin cu da trn bng chng thc nghim gn vi nhng vn chnh sch kinh t v m hin ang thu ht nhiu s quan tm ca cc i biu Quc hi v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch nc ta ang c trin khai trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch kinh t v m ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi. Xin trn trng gii thiu ti qu v.
BAN QUN L D N
Nghin cu c thc hin trong khun kh D n H tr nng cao nng lc tham mu, thm tra v gim st chnh sch Kinh t v m do y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi ch tr, vi s ti tr ca Chng trnh Pht trin Lin hp quc ti Vit Nam (UNDP).
Trng Ban ch o: Nguyn Vn Giu Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi Gim c: Nguyn Vn Phc Ph Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi Ph Gim c: Nguyn Minh Sn V trng V Kinh t, Vn phng Quc hi Qun c: Nguyn Tr Dng Nhm tc gi: V Quc Huy Nguyn Th Thu Hng V Phm Hi ng
MC LC
DANH MC CC CH VIT TT 12 DANH MC BNG 13 DANH MC TH 13 LI NI U 15
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Tnh ton t gi thc hu hiu Vit Nam: s liu mi v nhng pht hin mi 25 Cc kt qu chnh v la chn ti u v tn sut s liu v pham vi cc nc c s dng 26
CC NHN T QUYT NH Ty GI THC HU HIU V MC SAI LCH 27
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VND USD
Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (Asian Development Bank) Kim nh Dickey-Fuller tch hp (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) M hnh phn b tr t hi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag model) M hnh phn b tr t hi quy a thc (Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag model) T gi cn bng theo hnh vi (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) Nhm t vn v cc vn t gi (Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues) Ch s gi tiu dng Cc nn kinh t mi ni (Emerging Market Economies) u t trc tip nc ngoi Tng sn phm quc ni Atlas Thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Atlas) H thng thng tin thng mi ton cu (Global Trade Information System) H thng phn loi hng ha hi ha (Harmonized System) H thng ti chnh quc t (International Finance System) Qu tin t quc t (International Monetary Fund) Cc nc thu nhp thp (Low Income Countries) T gi t nhin Natural Rate of Exchange (NATREX) T gi hu hiu danh ngha (Norminal Effective Exchange Rate) Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (State Bank of Vietnam SBV) Ngn hng Thng mi Vin tr pht trin chnh thc T gi cn bng thng xuyn (Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate) H thng phn loi quc t v thng mi (Standard International Trade Classification) ng Vit Nam la M
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DANH MC BNG Bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M (nm 2000 l nm gc) Bng 2. c lng REER di hn cho mi quc gia Bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp Bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy Bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: cc th trng xut khu chnh, s liu GTIS Bng A. 1. C ch t gi ca Vit Nam theo thi gian, 1989-2011 Bng A.2. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang cc th trng chnh, 2005-2010 Bng A.3. Danh mc cc nc s dng trong vic tnh NEER and REER Bng A.4. Cc h s ng tch hp trong m hnh vi th trng M v danh mc hong ha SITC (US market and SITC commodities) Bng A.5. Phn ng ngn hn ca xut khu i vi t gi: hm phn hi xung DANH MC HNH Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD v lm pht Vit Nam, 1992-2010 Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011 Hnh 3. T gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do theo ngy, VND/USD, 2009-2011 Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu, 2000-2011 Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD: Q1/2000-Q3/2010 Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau Hnh 10. T gi cn bng Hnh 11. Sai lch ca t gi: Tng sai lch v sai lch hin ti
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LI M U
Kinh nghim quc t ch ra rng khng c mt khun mu sn c cho mt nn kinh t thc hin chnh sch t gi ca mnh. Loi tr mt vi trng hp c bit, phn ln cc nn kinh t u xy dng mt chnh sch t gi trong mt khng gian chnh sch kh rng ri gia hai thi cc: ch t gi c nh vi bin dao ng rt hp v ch th ni t gi. Hn th na, gia nhng quy nh c tnh php l v ch t gi c cng khai vi vic thc thi chnh sch t gi trn thc t c nhng khc bit kh ln. Vic nh gi, xem xt ch t gi ca mt nn kinh t do vy phn nhiu l mt vn mang tnh thc nghim, cn c xem xt thng qua cc bng chng thc t. Trn thc t cng c nhng khc bit rt ln gia mt bn l nhng k vng v nhng tc ng m nhng chnh sch t gi c th mang li vi bn kia l nhng tc ng thc s n nn kinh t ca nhng bin php chnh sch . Thm vo , c s nh i nht nh gia cc mc tiu chnh sch. Thng thng c qu nhiu mc tiu c t ra cho chnh sch t gi, trong khi cc cng c thc thi chnh sch v d a thc hin chnh sch li kh hn hp. Vic gim gi ng ni t c th thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thanh ton, nhng iu ch c th xy ra trong nhng iu kin nht nh (trong kinh t hc mt trong nhng iu kin l iu kin Marshall-Lerner khi tng co gin ca xut khu v nhp khu vi gi c phi ln hn 1). Thm vo , ngay c khi xut khu c ci thin do tc ng ca t gi th mc tc ng cng rt
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khc nhau gia cc sn phm v theo thi gian. Cc nghin cu cng ch ra rng gia mc tiu n nh t gi thc da trn tiu dng v mc tiu iu chnh iu kin thng mi i khi mu thun do tc ng ca t gi n cc mc gi c ca hng tiu dng v hng dnh cho sn xut l khc nhau. iu cng ch ra rng tc ng ca t gi n lm pht l khng h n gin. Trong mt nn kinh t m, t gi thc nh hng n gi c tng i gia cc hng ha sn xut trong nc v mt hng nhp khu.Vic thay i gi c tng i ny dn n s thay i v nhu cu i vi tng loi hng ha , t dn n thay i tng cu v tc ng n lm pht.T gi c th tc ng trc tip n lm pht do vic thay i gi c tnh bng ng bn a ca cc mt hng nhp khu v qua nh hng n ch s gi c. Tt c nhng iu ni trn hm rng bt k mt chng trnh kim sot lm pht no trong ngn hn cng phi kim sot ng thi ca t gi. Vic tng trng xut khu do tc ng ban u ca vic gim gi ng ni t rt c th b mt dn i do nhng tc ng bt li ca lm pht ko theo trong cc giai on sau. Tc ng cui cng ny, nh ni trn ty thuc nhiu vo cc sn phm v thi gian do cc mc tc ng v knh chuyn ti tc ng ca t gi. S dng ch s t gi hu hiu thc (real effective exchange rate, REER) nh l mt ch s nng lc cnh tranh c th l lch lc bi l nng lc cnh tranh l mt khi nim rng ln hn nhiu, khng n thun ch l t gi. Tnh cht phc tp, a dng, mang tnh nh i mc tiu cao ca vic thc thi cc bin php ca chnh sch t gi l gii phn no ti sao ch ny li l mt quan tm ln v c bn tho nhiu Vit Nam, nht l t nm 2007 tr li y sau nhng bt n kinh t v m ca nc ta. Qun l t gi ang l mt thch thc chnh sch ln khi ang lin tc c nhng du hiu v nhng mo m trn th
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trng ngoi hi. K t sau thng 9 nm 2010 n thi im nghin cu ny c thc hin (thng 5 nm 2011) tnh hnh trn li tr nn phc tp hn do lm pht li ti din. Vn t gi c coi l mt trong nhng vn cc k quan trng nh hng n s n nh v m ca nn kinh t cng vi cc vn khc nh thm ht ngn sch, thm ht thng mi v lm pht. iu hnh t gi hp l nhm kim sot lm pht, n nh nn kinh t, thc y xut khu v ci thin cn cn thng mi lun c coi trn danh ngha l nhng mc tiu chnh sch quan trng Vit Nam. iu ny tr nn quan trng hn bao gi ht trong bi cnh Vit Nam ang phi i mt vi nhng thch thc n nh kinh t v m nh hin nay. Cc bin php mnh tay p dng gn y nh cm bun bn ngoi t trn th trng phi chnh thc, yu cu kt hi khng chnh thc, vic ph gi mnh ng Vit Nam u nm 2011 sau mt thi gian di km gi t ra nhng cu hi v tnh hiu qu v ph hp ca cc bin php ny trong khun kh chung ca mt chnh sch t gi. Nghin cu ny s cp n mt s ni dung trong cch thc iu hnh t gi ca Vit Nam trong thi gian gn y (t sau nm 2000) trn c s nhng phn tch thc chng. Chng ti tnh ch s t gi hu hiu thc - real effective exchange rate (REER) theo thng trn c s s dng cc s liu kh cp nht, chi tit hn v c tn sut thi gian v khng gian so vi cc nghin cu trc y. Nghin cu cng xut cch thc tnh ch s ny theo cch mi vi tn sut thi gian v phm vi ban hnh hp l, phc v cho cc nhu cu phn tch chnh sch, thng k v theo di trong tng lai. Bn cnh , ln u tin nc ta, mc sai lch v t gi (exchange rate misalignment) cng c nhm nghin cu a ra da trn mt m hnh kinh t lng tng i n gin v c th nghim tnh ton mc sai lch t gi cho nhiu quc gia trn th gii. Cc kt qu v mc sai lch
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t gi c th s gp phn nh gi hiu qu ca chnh sch t gi, theo ngha cc bin php can thip t gi c lm trm trng thm hay gim nh mc sai lch ny. Cc s liu v mc sai lch t gi cng ch ra c din bin ca t gi v mi tng thch vi nhng ch s nn tng (fundamentals) ca nn kinh t. iu c th s gip cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c thm thng tin trong khi cn nhc, xem xt cc bin php khc nhau khi iu hnh t gi cho ph hp vi tnh hnh thc t v cc mc tiu ra. Phn cui ca nghin cu l kt qu ca m hnh kinh t lng c lng tc ng ca t gi i vi xut khu. Khc vi nhiu nghin cu trc y, nghin cu ny a ra kt qu v nh hng ca t gi i vi cc sn phm xut khu theo danh mc quc t (195 mt hng theo m SITC 3 ch s v trn 90 mt hng theo m HS 2 ch s) trn 4 th trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam l Hoa K, Khu vc ng Euro (15 nc), Nht Bn v Hn Quc. Cc kt qu c lng cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tuy nhin tc ng tch cc ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu.Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c ny cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc. Bo co ny c nhng ni dung chnh nh sau: chng 1 tm tt nhng bin ng gn y trn th trng ngoi hi v cc thay i chnh sch tng ng, ch trng vo giai on t sau 2007; chng 2 c lng t gi hu hiu thc (REER); chng 3 xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi; chng 4 l m hnh kinh t lng v tc ng ca t gi ln xut khu; chng 5 tho lun cc vn chnh sch trong vic qun l t gi Vit Nam v m ra nhng hng nghin cu mi.
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CHNG
Qun l t gi nhm kim sot lm pht, n nh kinh t v m v cn cn thng mi lun l mt nhim v quan trng i vi Vit Nam. iu ny cng quan trng hn khi hin ti Vit Nam vn ang c gng thot khi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii 2007-2009 v n lc n nh kinh t v m. Vit Nam c nhiu iu chnh trong c ch t gi k t khi t nc chm dt c ch tp trung quan liu bao cp nm 1989. Tuy nhin, xt v bn cht cc thay i ny u xoay quanh ch neo t gi. Vit Nam, ng USD gn nh c mc nh l ng tin neo t gi. Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam (NHNN) cng b t gi VND/ USD. Cn c vo t gi quc t gia USD v cc ng tin ngoi t khc, cc Ngn hng Thng mi s xc lp t gi gia cc ngoi t vi VND. (Xem phn ph lc bit thng tin chi tit v nhng iu chnh t gi ca Vit Nam t nm 1989) Trong vong 10 nm qua xut hin nhiu n lc nghin cu v c ch t gi ca Vit Nam. ng k nht trong s l cc nghin cu ca V Tr Thnh v cc ng tc gi (2000), Ohno (2003), Nguyn Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009), v Nguyn Trn Phc (2009). Cc nghin cu ny u ch ra rng c ch t gi
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ca Vit Nam mt mt cn c duy tr n nh, nhng mt khc nn linh ng hn na theo tn hiu th trng. V Tr Thnh v cc ng tc gi (2000) xut Vit Nam nn theo c ch neo t gi theo r tin t vi bin iu chnh dn (Band-Basket-Crawling) con Ohno (2003) xut Vit Nam nn theo c ch neo t gi c iu chnh (crawling peg). Trn thc t, trong nhng nm va qua Vit Nam theo ui c ch neo t gi c iu chnh nh xut ca hai nghin cu trn. Nhng hai nghin cu gn y ca Nguyn c Th (2009) v Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) li ch ra rng c ch neo t gi c iu chnh ny khng hot ng hiu qu, gy ra cc bt n cho th trng ti chnh. Khng nhng th, n con ngn cn s pht trin ca th trng ngoi hi ca Vit Nam. Mt nghin cu gn y ca Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010) cng chia se quan im ca Nguyn Trn Phc (2009) v gi Vit Nam nn nhanh chng chuyn sang c ch th ni c kim sot. hiu r hn v tc ng ca chnh sch qun l t gi v nhng iu chnh trong t gi, chng ta s xem xt nhng bin ng ca t gi Vit Nam v tp trung ch yu vo nhng bin ng gn y.
CC XU HNG T GI:
Nhn vo din bin ca t gi danh ngha t nm 1992 n nay (hnh 1) c th thy t gi chnh thc VND/USD1 c xu hng i theo mt chu k r rt gm hai giai on: (i) trong giai on suy thoi kinh t hoc khng hong, VND mt gi kh mnh; v (ii) khi giai on suy thoi kt thc, nn kinh t i vo n nh th t gi li c neo gi tng i cng nhc theo ng USD. Chu k ny c lp li hn hai ln t nm 1989 n nay.
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gi chnh thc l t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng do Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) cng b hng ngy da trn t gi giao dch ca ngy hm trc gia cc Ngn hng Thng mi (NHTM).
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Giai on 1 ca chu k tng ng vi cc giai on nn kinh t c s bin ng mnh: (i) 1997-2000 vi nh hng mnh m ca cuc khng hong ti chnh Chu A; v (ii) 2008-2011 vi cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu v n lc bnh n kinh t v m. Gn lin vi nhng giai on bin ng mnh ny l s chnh lch ln gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do. Sc p ca th trng buc NHNN phi ni rng bin t gi hoc chnh thc ph gi, lm cho VND mt gi mnh m so vi thi im trc . Hnh 1. T gi danh ngha VND/USD (bn tri) v lam pht Vit Nam (bn phi), 1992-2010
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
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Giai on 2 ca chu k tng ng vi cc thi k nn kinh t i vo pht trin n nh nh giai on 1993-1996 v giai on 2001-2007. Gn lin vi cc giai on ny l mt c ch t gi neo gi theo ng USD mt cch tng i cng nhc. y cng l cc giai on m t gi trn th trng t do cng n nh v theo st vi t gi chnh thc. Nguyn nhn l do giai on trc t gi chnh thc c tng lin tc v n cui giai on ngang bng vi t gi th trng t do.
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Giai oan 2008-2009 nh du s bin ng trong cc phn ng chnh sch t gi Vit Nam. T nm 2007, do s gia tng t ca lung tin u t gin tip vo Vit Nam, ngun cung USD tng mnh. Trn thc t vo na u nm 2007 v t thng 10/2007 n thng 3/2008, th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam c d cung v USD khin cho t gi NHTM2 gim xung sn bin . ng Vit Nam ln gi trong giai on ny. Hnh 2 cho thy t gi c nhng bin ng mnh trong nm 2008 do lm pht tng cao trong na u nm v cuc khng hong kinh t th gii bt u tc ng ti nn kinh t Vit Nam vo na cui nm 2008. T gia nm 2008, cng vi s suy thoi kinh t, lung u t gin tip vo Vit Nam bt u o chiu. Xu hng chung ca nm 2009 l s mt gi danh ngha ca VND so vi USD. Cho n cui nm 2009, t gi chnh thc VND/ USD tng 5,6% so vi cui nm 2008. Trong khi trong nm 2008, t gi nim yt ti cc NHTM bin ng lin tc, u nm con c giai on thp hn t gi chnh thc, th nm 2009 li l mt nm m t gi NHTM lun mc trn ca bin giao ng m NHNN cng b. Trong c nm, p lc v cung cu trn th trng cng vi p lc tm l khin t gi trn th trng t do ngy cng ri xa t gi chnh thc. Mc d NHNN buc phi m rng bin giao ng ca t gi chnh thc trong thng 3 t +/-3% ln +/-5% bin ln nht trong vong 10 nm qua, nhng cc NHTM vn giao dch mc t gi trn. Tnh trng nhp siu ko di v ngy cng tng t thng 3 n cui nm. Gi tr nhp khu trong 3 thng cui nm
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gi NHTM l t gi giao dch ca cc NHTM v phi nm trong bin giao ng do NHNN cng b.
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tng mnh so vi 3 thng u nm, chim 30% tng gi tr nhp khu c nm 2009. Gi tr xut khu trong c nm gim 10% so vi nm 2009 ch yu do mt bng gi xut khu gim c bit l cc mt hng xut khu ch lc ca Vit Nam. Mc d xut khu tng vo cui nm nhng trong thng 11, nhp siu ln ti hn 2 t USD, mc ln nht trong c nm. Thm vo , chnh lch ln gia gi vng trong nc v gi vng quc t khin cho nhu cu v USD cng tng phc v vic nhp khu vng. Gi vng v gi u tng mnh. Ngi dn y mnh mua ngoi t trn th trng t do, gi USD trn th trng ch en tng mnh. Do khan him ngun cung USD, cc doanh nghip cng phi nh n th trng ch en hoc phi cng thm ph ph khi mua ngoi t ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi. Tm l hoang mang mt long tin vo VND lm tng cu v gim cung v USD y t gi th trng t do tng ln hng ngy. Ngi dn lo ngi thc s v kh nng ph gi tin VND, sau khi mt s bo co ca cc nh ch ti chnh c cng b. Hnh 2. T gi VND/USD theo ngy v bin , 2008-2011
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V n 26/11/2009, NHNN buc phi chnh thc ph gi VND 5,4%, t l ph gi cao nht trong mt ngy k t nm 1998 chng u c tin t3 v gim p lc th trng, ng thi thu hp bin giao ng xung con +/-3%. Cng vi chnh sch t gi, vo thi im ny NHNN nng li sut c bn t 7% ln 8%/nm. Cc chnh sch ny c cho l hp l nhng kh mun mng. ng Vit Nam tip tc mt gi trn th trng t do th hin qua vic t gi trn th trng t do vo thi im cui nm 2009 vn ng vng mc cao khong 19.400 VND cho 1 USD v cc NHTM tip tc giao dch mc trn. Tnh hnh th trng ngoi hi trong nm 2009 c th trm trng hn nu khng c: (i) s st gim nhu cu ngoi t do thu nhp t u t do cc doanh nghip c yu t nc ngoi chuyn ra khi Vit Nam gim (trong nm 2009 c t -3 t USD, so vi -4,4 t USD nm 2008); v (ii) s gia tng cung ngoi t do lng kiu hi vn ng vng con s kh tch cc hn 6 t USD. FDI gii ngn c t 10 t USD. u t gin tip nc ngoi chy ra khi Vit Nam vo u nm nhng cng c du hiu o chiu vo cui nm.
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R rng, NHNN th hin s lng l v khng nht qun trong chnh sch t gi. Vic s dng bin t gi thay cho vic ph gi chnh thc vo thng 3/2009 cng khng c tc dng nh mong mun. Trong c nm, bt chp cc bin php hnh chnh (nh yu cu cc Tng cng ty nh nc bn ngoi t cho Chnh ph) cng nh cc cng b ca lnh o NHNN, NHNN khng th ko t gi th trng t do v st vi t gi NHTM nh mong mun. Thm vo , do phi gi n nh t gi trong thi gian di, NHNN phi bn ra hn mt lng ln USD lm gim d tr ngoi hi. Vo cui nm 2009, k vng mt gi ca ng tin Vit Nam hin vn con kh ln.
Giai oan 2010-2011
Nm 2010 tip tc chng kin cc xu hng tng t trn th trng ngoi hi nh trong nm 2009. C th l cc NTTM vn tip tc t t gi ti trn bin ca t gi chnh thc trong hu ht cc thng trong nm v khong cch gia t gi chnh thc v t gi th trng t do c lc tng ln nhng mc cao cha tng c vo cui nm 2010.
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Do cc p lc vn tip tc tng cao d NHNN c nhiu n lc vo cui nm 2009, n ngy 11/02/2010, NHNN phi tng t gi chnh thc t 17.941 VND/USD ln 18.544 VND/USD, tng ng vi vic ph gi 3,3%. Cng vi vic nng t gi ny, NHNN thc hin hng lot cc bin php hnh chnh nhm gim p lc ln th trng ngoi hi nh gim t l d tr bt buc i vi tin gi ngoi t, m rng i tng cho vay ngoi t, chm dt vic giao dch vng trn cc ti khon nc ngoi ca cc NHTM v cc t chc tn dng, ng ca cc sn vng, v tng li sut c bn ln 8%/ nm. Kt qu l, trong su thng u nm 2010 tn dng ngoi t tng 27% trong khi tn dng VND ch tng 4.6%. ng thi, kiu hi v cc khon gii ngn FDI, ODA v FII (u t gin tip nc ngoi) u tng ln trong hai qu u ca nm 2010 so vi cng k nm 2009 khi con khng hong. Tt c cc yu t trn gp phn tng cung v gim cu ngoi t nh gim khong cch gia t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh thc trong qu II v na u qu III nm 2010 (xem hnh 3). Tuy nhin, cc NHTM tip tc t gi mc trn hoc gn vi trn bin ca t gi chnh thc. V t u thng 7 nm 2010, t gi th trng t do li bt u tng ln d lc u ch tng chm. Nhng xu hng ny phn nh k vng ca th trng ngoi hi v s ph gi ca VND. Nguyn nhn ca k vng ny l: (i) cung ngoi t tng l ch yu do cc doanh nghip tn dng chnh lch li sut gia tin gi ngoi t v tin gi VND; (ii) nhiu bin php hnh chnh ca NHNN ch mang tnh tm thi v c th s b o ngc; (iii) lo lng v vic cu ngoi t s tng cao khi nhiu khon vay ngoi t ca cc doanh nghip nhm tn dng chnh lch li sut s n hn; v (iv) hnh vi u c ca ngi dn do gim st nim tin vo tin ng. C l do nhn thc c nhng mi e da ny, vo ngy 17/08/2010, NHNN t ngt tng t gi thm 2,1% ln 18.932
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VND/USD mc d lc p lc th trng vn cha r rng v khong cch gia t gi th trng t do v t gi chnh thc vn ang mc thp khong 500 VND/USD. Ngay lp tc, cc NHTM tng t gi ca h ln kch trn. ng thi ca NHNN c th gip gim p lc v n nh t gi nu khng c nhiu nhng yu t bt li din ra trong nhng thng cui ca nm 2010. Yu t u tin v c l l yu t quan trng nht l vic gi vng quc t tng cao k lc dn n gi vng trong nc con tng cao hn do u c. ng thi, sau mt vi thng tng vi tc chm, lm pht li bt u tng nhanh t thng 9 nm 2010 khin cho CPI ca nm 2011 tng ln 11,75% so vi 7% nm 2009. Trong nhng thng cui nm 2011, th trng ngoi hi chng kin s tng ln nhanh chng ca cu v ngoi t do: (i) nhu cu mua ngoi t tr cc khon vay o hn ca cc doanh nghip tn dng chnh lch li sut trong hai qu u nm 2011; (ii) nhu cu nhp khu thng tng cao vo cui nm cng thm nhu cu nhp khu vng nhm kim li t s chnh lch gia gi vng trong nc v gi vng quc t, (iii) NHNN tht cht tn dng ngoi t; (iv) li sut tin gi ngoi t tng cao, ln trn 5%/nm; v (v) hot ng u c gia tng. Thm vo , cung ngoi t gim st do cc doanh nghip khng mun bn ngoi t cho ngn hng khi h lo lng v kh nng NHNN s tip tc phi ph gi VND. Kt qu ca s d cu ngoi t l t gi th trng t do bt u tng t thng 9 nm 2010 ln 20.500 VND/USD vo gia thng 10 v ln n mc k lc l trn 21.500 VND/USD vo cui thng 11 (xem hnh 3). i mt vi tnh trng ny, NHNN phi thc hin mt lot cc bin php hnh chnh nh tuyn b tng cung ngoi t cho vic nhp khu nhng mt hng thit yu cho sn xut, tht cht vic trao i cng nh nhn gi v cho vay bng vng, v tng hn ngch nhp khu vng lm du tnh hnh cng thng trn th
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trng vng. ng thi, li sut c bn cng c tng ln 9%/nm vo thng 11. Tuy nhin, t gi th trng t do ch gim nh i cht v vo cui nm 2010 v u nm 2011 vn ng mc cao. Nguyn nhn th nht cho tnh trng ny l do hu ht cc bin php ca NHNN, nht l i vi th trng vng ch mang tnh tm thi. Th hai, d tr ngoi hi lin tc gim st t nm 2009 v do tuyn b ca NHNN v vic cung ngoi t ra th trng khng c hon ton m bo. Th ba, lm pht tng cao v vn tip tc tng. Th t, thm ht thng mi nm 2010 vn cao mc 12,4 t la ( loi tr 2,8 t nhp khu rong vng). Tnh trng ny con trm trng hn do cc hot ng u c. Khng th tip tc duy tr t gi, NHNN tuyn b mc ph gi cao nht trong lch s (9,3%) vo u thng 2 nm 2011, nng t gi chnh thc ln 20.693 VND/USD v gim bin xung con +/-1%. N lc ny khng c kt qu ngay lp tc. T gi th trng t do vt ln trn 22.100 VND/USD trong vong vi ngy k t sau ln ph gi ny. Vo thng 3 nm 2011, NHNN sit cht cc hot ng trn th trng t do, p t trn li sut thp cho tin gi bng ngoi t v do m rng chnh lch gia li sut tin gi ngoi t v li sut VND lc ln kch trn 14%. Do vy, cung ngoi t tng ln khi cc doanh nghip v c nhn chuyn i tin gi bng ngoi t sang tin gi bng VND tn dng chnh lch li sut cao. ng thi, NHNN cng tuyn b l mua thm c 3 t cho d tr ngoi hi. Nh , c t gi th trng t do v t gi NHTM u gim xung t thng 4 nm 2011, v c lc con thp hn t gi chnh thc. Giai on 2010-2011 cho thy NHNN ch ng hn so vi nhng nm trc. C th, NHNN i trc th trng vo thng 8 nm 2010 khi cc p lc th trng con tng i thp. ng thi,
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NHNN tin hnh ph gi mt ln vi mc ln hn (thng 2 nm 2011) Nhng ng thi ny cho thy NHNN bt cng nhc v vn ng theo th trng tt hn. Tuy nhin, NHNN vn s dng rt nhiu bin php hnh chnh thay v to mi trng cho th trng t vn hnh. Mc d hin nay th trng ngoi hi n nh hn, cc bi hc t tnh hung tng t vo gia nm 2010 cnh bo chng ta khng nn ch quan vi th trng. Gia hai k th trng tng i n hoa (hin ti v gia nm 2010) c nhng im tng t khng th ph nhn. Th nht, cc doanh nghip v cc c nhn chuyn i tin gi bng ngoi t sang tin gi VND tn dng chnh lch li sut c hai giai on. Th hai, trong c hai giai on, NHTM u h t gi xung thp hn trn bin . Th ba, tn dng ngoi t tng nhanh hn nhiu so vi tn dng VND trong c hai trng hp, ng ngha vi vic n cui nm nhu cu ngoi t tr cc khon n o hn s tng nhanh. Th t, p lc t nhp siu vn ln. Cui cng, t gi th trng t do v t gi NHTM vn bm st nhau. (mc d b kim sot cht ch, mt s hot ng t do vn din ra.) Do , nu xy ra cc yu t bt li vo qu IV nm 2011 nh s bin ng ln v t ngt trn th trng vng (c trong v ngoi nc), lm pht cao (c trong v ngoi nc) th cc p lc trn th trng ngoi hi s tng ln v c th dn n nhng bin ng tng t nh vo cui nm 2010. Tuy nhin, hin ti th trng cng c nhng im khc bit, c thun li v bt li so vi gia nm 2010. Th nht, tnh hnh nm 2010 c li hn v giai on th trng ngoi hi n nh l giai on lm pht thp lin mt s thng khin nim tin vo tin ng cao hn hin ti khi lm pht tng lin tc trong 8 thng qua. Tuy nhin hin ti, NHNN tng v vn tip tc n lc tng d tr ngoi hi. iu c ngha l NHNN s c lng d tr ngoi hi ln hn n nh th trng khi cn thit. Th ba, n lc ph gi vo thng 2
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nm 2011 (9,3%) cao gn gp i so vi tng hai ln ph gi nm 2010 v iu ny c ngha l p lc ph gi thm s thp hn trong nm nay. Tuy nhin, chng ta cn tnh n vic lm pht nm nay cao hn kh nhiu so vi nm 2010.
Din bin ca t gi thc Hnh 4. T gi thc v t gi danh ngha VND/USD theo qu 2000-2011 (qu I nm 2000 l k gc)
Hnh 4 cho thy xu hng bin ng ca ca c t gi thc v t gi danh ngha theo qu trong thp k qua. T gi danh ngha c xu hng tng trong ton b thp k v tng mnh hn t 2008 n nay. Xu hng theo thi gian c c lng4 cho thy mc mt gi l khong 0,4%/qu trong giai on 2000-2007 nhng tng ln mc 1,8%/qu trong giai on tip theo t u nm 2008, tng ng vi mc tng gp 5 ln so vi giai on trc. Tuy nhin, t gi thc li c bin ng khc bit. N tng nh vo giai Q1/2000-Q3/2003 vi xu hng thi gian bng 0,75%. VND sau c xu hng tng gi mnh thc t trong giai on Q4/2003-Q4/2008 vi tc 1,5%/qu
4Xu
hng thi gian l h s ca bin thi gian trong phng trnh hi quy gin n sau y = c + a * thi gian + (b*X).
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(xem hnh 4). ng thi, khong cch gia hai t gi ngy cng m rng c bit l trong giai on 2008-2010. So vi nm 2000, ch s CPI (i din cho mc lm pht trong nn kinh t) ca Vit Nam trong nm 2010 tng ti xp x 123% trong khi CPI ca M ch tng 26,7% trong cng giai on. T gi danh ngha gia ng Vit Nam v la M ch tng xp x 30,4%. Do vy, nu chng ta ly nm 2000 lm gc th ng Vit Nam ln gi thc t xp x 25,9%. Thm ch nu chng ta tnh c ln ph gi 9,3% vo thng 2/2011, tnh hnh cng khng c ci thin do t l lm pht trong su thng u nm 2011 ln n 13,29% so vi thng 12/2010.
bng 1. Ch s t gi thc ca cc ng tin so vi la M (nm 2000 l nm gc)
n v: %
2001 Nhn dn t Euro Yn Nht la Singapore la i Loan la Uc Won Triu Tin Baht Thai Ringgit Malaysia Vit Nam ng 101,67 105,12 118,75 109,50 109,64 108,49 103,03 105,00 100,36 104,57 2002 104,95 88,56 111,19 104,95 111,24 96,87 92,01 103,27 101,36 105,24 2003 104,11 73,50 101,61 103,97 110,66 72,80 90,71 95,10 102,10 105,68 2004 104,07 68,70 101,73 101,74 105,35 70,50 78,54 93,96 103,11 100,13 2005 2006 2007 91,90 65,32 122,18 93,35 111,18 62,90 72,34 79,26 91,04 85,84 2008 84,30 68,45 97,60 89,11 108,92 84,35 93,80 82,63 92,13 76,40 2009 84,87 66,56 102,48 89,30 107,96 65,14 85,95 77,91 91,39 76,63 2010 80,28 71,89 92,36 80,14 99,45 57,49 81,39 69,88 80,62 74,10 103,85 100,64 80,51 120,05 106,15 110,18 75,53 77,67 96,88 103,05 96,29 72,30 123,32 99,16 110,61 69,31 71,34 84,86 95,43 93,02
n ht nm 2010, ng USD cng mt gi kh nhiu so vi ng tin ca cc i tc thng mi ln ca Vit Nam (xem bng 1). Nhng mc d cng ln gi theo chiu hng chung, nhng ng Vit Nam vn ln gi nhiu hn so vi cc ng tin Chu
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A nh la Singapore, Won Triu Tin, Ringgit Malaysia v Nhn dn t Trung Quc. S ln gi thc ca ng Vit Nam lm gim kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ha xut khu ca Vit Nam trn th trng th gii.
Hnh 5. Ch s t gi thc theo qu ca mt s ng tin so vi USD: Q1/2000-Q3/2010 (k gc: Q1/2001)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
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CHNG
Chnh sch t gi ng mt vai tro quan trng trong chnh sch kinh t v m ca mt nn kinh t v t gi l mt trong nhng cng c quan trng nht ca chnh sch ny. V l thuyt, t gi phn nh mc gi tng i (gia ng ni t v ng ngoi t). Khi mt nc tham gia vo thng mi v cc giao dch khc vi mt s nc th mt ch s chung phn nh gi tr chung ca ng tin c tnh da trn cc t gi song phng v mc thng mi gia cc nc ny vi nc ch nh. T gi hu hiu danh ngha c tnh da trn c s ny v c nh ngha l t gi gia ng ni t vi cc ng ngoi t ca cc nc khc ly quyn s l t trng thng mi hoc thanh ton quc t ca nc vi cc nc kia (OECD, 2010). T gi thc hu hiu th c tnh da trn NEER v iu chnh loi b lm pht. Cng thc c s dng tnh NEER v REER nh sau:
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trong : t l thi gian, n l s lng cc i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam, ejt l t gi danh ngha ca ng tin nc j so vi VND ti thi im t (tnh theo ch s). Lu l t gi y cng c tnh l s VND cn i ly 1 n v tin t nc j. Pt l ch s gi hng ha trong nc, Pjt l ch s gi hng ha nc j v wjt l t trng ca ng tin nc j ti thi im t, tng ng vi t trng thng mi ca nc j trong tng kim ngch thng mi ca Vit Nam vi cc nc c chn.
V thc nghim, cc ch s ny rt hu ch cho vic phn tch chnh sch v tnh hnh kinh t v m ca mt nc. Chinn (2005) ch ra nhiu trng hp trong nhng t gi hu hiu ny c th c s dng cho nhiu vn kinh t khc nhau. C th tc gi ch ra rng nhng ch s ny c th c s dng lm: (i) mt nhn t quyt nh xem khng hong tin t c xy ra hay khng nh trong trng hp khng hong ti chnh ng A nm 1997; (ii) mt bin ph thuc phn nh s thay i trong nng sut lao ng (Hsieh (1982), De Gregorio v Wolf (1994) v Chinn (2000)); (iii) mt bin c lp gii thch thm ht thng mi ca mt nc (trng hp thm ht thng mi ca M); v (iv) mt ch s xc nh kh nng ph gi cnh tranh gia cc ng tin (trng hp khu vc cc nc thuc Thi Bnh Dng, Chinn (2005)). Gn y, mt s lng ln cc nghin cu gn REER vi tnh hnh tng trng kinh t v c th l xut khu. Vit Nam khng cng b chnh thc mt s liu no cho t gi danh ngha hu hiu (NEER) hay t gi thc hu hiu (REER). Tuy
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nhin, mt lot cc nghin cu v qun l t gi Vit Nam c s dng NEER v REER. Mt s nghin cu thc hin vic c lng cc ch s ny, cc nghin cu khc ch s dng chng t ngun khc. Qu Tin t Quc t IMF ch tnh ton v cng b cc ch s ny theo nm cho giai on 2001-2006. Gn y, Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010) tnh ton NEER v REER theo nm cho giai on 2000-2009 s dng r thng mi vi 10 i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam. Nhng ch s ny sau c cp nht n ht nm 2010 (Nguyn Th Thu Hng, 2011). Mt trong nhng c lng tng hp nht v NEER v REER cho ti nay l ca Nguyn Trn Phc v Nguyn c Th (2009), s dng c s liu theo nm t 1992 n 2007 v theo thng t thng 1/1995 n thng 12/2007 vi gi tin t ca 25 i tc thng mi chnh ca Vit Nam v quyn s l t trng thng mi theo nm cho c hai chui s liu theo thng v theo nm.
Hnh 7. Cc c lng ca NTTHng, N&N v IMF v REER (nm 2000 l nm gc)
Mc d c s khc nhau v tn sut v thi gian s dng, nhng ch s NEER v REER cho thy nhng xu hng thng nht (i) s mt gi thc t trong giai on 2000-2003 v (ii) s ln gi thc t
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trong giai on 2004-2007 (Nguyn Th Thu Hng v cc ng tc gi (2010)). Nguyn Th Thu Hng (2011) cho thy c s ci thin i cht trong giai on 2008-2010 v REER nhng kt lun rng n cui 2010 REER vn cao hn so vi nm 2003 hn 20% (Xem Hnh 8).
TNH ToN T GI THC HU HIU VIT NaM: S lIU MI V NHNG pHT HIN MI
Do tnh trng thiu s liu v NEER v REER Vit Nam cng nh nhng thiu st v phm vi v tn sut s liu trong cc nghin cu hin c v cc ch s ny, nghin cu ny s khc phc nhng hn ch ny bng cch tnh li cc ch s ny vi s liu c tn sut cao hn v phm vi rng hn.
pham vi rng hn
Ch s gi Cn lu rng nghin cu ca chng ti vn s dng CPI v ch s gi cho REER. y l s n gin ha chung t Chinn (2005). Cc ch s gi c thu thp t nhiu ngun nh IMF, cc Ngn hng D tr Lin Bang Cleveland v St.Louis v Ngn hng Trung ng ca mt s nc v nn kinh t. Ngoi tr c ch c CPI theo qu, tt c cc nc con li u cng b CPI hng thng. Trong mt s trng hp do thiu s liu, chng ti s dng gc trung gian khc nhng tt c cc ch s u c a v mt gc l thng 1/2000. Phm vi cc nc c s dng Ban u 79 nc c chn v s liu thng mi thng nht gia Vit Nam vi cc nc ny c sn theo thng trn Global Trade Atlas. 79 nc ny chim hn 95% tng thng mi quc t (c cng b bi 162 nc trong giai on 2001-2005 (UNCTAD, GTIS).
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Khi kt hp vi s liu v gi c th ch con li 45 nc nhng tng thng mi ca chung chim 78% tng thng mi quc t. T trng thng mi ca nhng nc ny vi Vit Nam con cao hn. Vic loi b mt s nc khi tnh REER (s bn thm di) khng lm nh hng n gi tr v xu hng ca REER theo thi gian nn cui cng chng ti s dng 20 nc.
Tn sut s liu ln hn
Chinn (2005) ch ra rng vic tnh REER phi da trn mc ch s dng n. Nu REER s c s dng theo di bin ng ca t gi hoc tm kim nhng kt ni vi cc yu t c bn ca nn kinh t th REER s c tnh vi tn sut cao hn. V chng ti mun s dng REER tm hiu xu hng bin ng ca t gi t nm 2000 nn vic s dng s liu theo thng vi s lng ln hn cc i tc thng mi ly t H thng Thng tin Thng mi Quc t - Global Trade Information System (GTIS) s c li hn. Mt khc, tn sut s liu cao s b nhiu nhiu hn v c nhng sai lch khng mong i so vi xu hng bnh thng. Trong trng hp ny, vic lm trn chui s liu v s dng tn sut thp hn cng c nhng u im ca n. T quan im chnh sch, s liu vi tn sut cao hn s cung cp nhiu thng tin hn v vn v gip hiu r hn nhng g ang din ra i vi cc bin v cc iu kin kinh t v m quan trng, gip cc nh hoch nh chnh sch a ra nhng quyt nh ng lc v ph hp nu cn. Mt khc, thu thp s liu vi tn sut cao hn cng tn km hn. Thm vo , s dng s liu GTIS c nhng u im hn so vi s liu thng mi ca Vit Nam v n cung cp thng tin nht qun v chi tit theo thi gian. Sau khi xem xt tt c nhng vn ny, chng ta bt u tnh REER theo qu da trn s liu thng mi GTIS cho 45 nc (xem danh sch cc nc c s dng trong Ph lc).
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Hnh 9 cho thy s bin ng ca 4 ch s: t gi thc hu hiu (REER), t gi thc (VND/USD), t gi danh ngha (VND/USD) v ch s tng trng xut khu trong giai on Q1/2000-Q2/2010. Ch s tng trng xut khu c tc tng gn 5%/qu trong c giai on (xu hng theo thi gian th cao hn (5,3%) trong giai on trc 2007). Tuy nhin REER th c hai xu hng tri chiu: mt gi vi xu hng theo thi gian l 3,1%/qu trc Q4/2003 v ln gi trong giai on sau vi xu hng theo thi gian l -1,5%. Kt qu ny thng nht v xu hng nhng khc bit v mc vi vi cc nghin cu khc. Vic REER c quan h cht ch vi t gi thc VND/USD v tng trng xut khu5 cng khng c g ng ngc nhin v M tip tc chim t trng quan trng trong thng mi ca Vit Nam (20%). Mi quan h ny khng nht thit hm rng cc nhn t l nguyn nhn ca cc bin ng ca REER. Chng ta s xem xt cc nhn t quyt nh REER trong phn sau.
Hnh 8. Ch s tng trng xut khu v t gi danh ngha, RER v REER
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
5Mt
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La chn ti u v tn sut s liu v phm vi cc nc Nh cp t trc, chng ta phi nh i gia: (i) vic a thm nc vo c lng vi s liu c tn sut cao hn tnh REER c c thng tin chnh xc v kp thi hn; v (ii) chi ph. ng thi, phm vi cc nc cng ln v tn sut s liu cng ln th li ch bin t vic c c thng tin chnh xc v kp thi cng gim. V vy, chng ti la chn mt mu ti u.
Hnh 9. REER vi cc s lng nc khc nhau
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi theo s liu ca NHNN, WEO, GTIS v IFS (2011).
Trong hnh 9, chng ti so snh REER thu c t ba mu vi s lng nc khc nhau. Mu th nht gm 45 nc c c t u nh m t trn. Mu hai gm 20 nc i tc ln nht ca Vit Nam trong cc giai on 2000-2004 v/hoc 2005-2010. Mu ny c gi l Nhm 20. Mu th ba gm 14 nc trong 200 i tc ln nht ca c hai giai on. Kt qu cho thy khng c nhiu khc bit v xu hng gia cc mu nhng mc th c thay i ln khi s dng mu vi 14 nc. C lc s khc bit ln ti 10%. Mu 20 nc cho thy kt qu kh st vi mu 45 nc ban u. Chng ti kt lun rng tp hp 20 nc l xem xt bin ng ca REER.
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Chng ta cn lu rng hng thng mi ca Vit Nam thay i kh thng xuyn trong qu kh v c th c trong tng lai gn do nhng thay i trong nn kinh t th gii v thng mi nn nhm 20 ny c th cng s thay i. Cn cp nht thng tin nu mun s dng REER lm cng c theo di.
CC NHN T QUyT NH T GI THC HU HIU V MC SaI lCH o lng t gi cn bng
xc nh c mc sai lch ca t gi v tr li cho cu hi mt ng tin c b nh gi qu cao hoc qu thp hay khng, chng ta cn phi xc nh c mc cn bng ca t gi. Hu ht cc nghin cu v cc nhn t quyt nh t gi thng s dng khi nim t gi cn bng c s (FEER) do Williamson (1994) a ra, theo t gi cn bng c hiu l t gi thc t tha mn ng thi c cn i bn trong v bn ngoi. Cn i bn trong t c khi nn kinh t t sn lng tim nng con cn i bn ngoi c xc nh bi mt cn cn thanh ton bn vng trong trung hn, tc l mc thng d/thm ht ti khon vng lai ph hp vi dong chy ra/vo ca vn trong di hn. T gi cn bng FEER c xu hng b qua cc yu t trong ngn hn mang tnh chu k v yu t u c trn th trng ngoi hi. Vic xc nh t gi cn bng ny thng oi hi phi s dng cc m hnh kinh t lng v m c quy m ln hoc cc m hnh phn khi. Mt dng khc ca FEER l t gi t nhin (NATREX) do Stein (1994, 1995, 2002) a ra cng da trn cc cn i v m bn trong v bn ngoi. Tuy nhin, xc nh NATREX, chng ta khng ch xem xt cc iu kin trong trung hn m con c trong di hn khi m tng vn v n nc ngoi hi t v cc gi tr trng thi dng ca n. Cch tip cn FEER c nhm t vn v t gi (CGER) ca IMF p dng nh gi t gi ca mt s nc. Chng hn, mt
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nghin cu ca b phn nghin cu thuc IMF (xem IMF 2006) s dng m hnh hi quy theo nc (bao gm cc nn kinh t pht trin v mi ni) da trn cc cch tip cn khc nhau v t gi nhm xc nh sai lch ca t gi mt nc. Nghin cu ny s dng 7 bin s (cn i ti kha, yu t v dn s, ti sn nc ngoi rong, cn i v du th, tng trng kinh t, 2 bin gi m t khng hong kinh t v c trung tm ti chnh) a ra mt ti khon vng lai tiu chun. y c coi l mc cn bng ca ti khon vng lai. S sai lch ca ti khon vng lai so vi chun c coi l nguyn nhn dn ti sai lch v t gi. Do vy t gi phi c iu chnh phc hi li mc cn bng ny ca ti khon vng lai. Mc iu chnh c tnh ton da vo co gin ca t gi i vi ti khon vng lai. Mc d cch tip cn ny kh tt nhng vic p dng n cho mi mt nc n le c th c mt s l hng. Vic p dng mt chun chung cho cc nc khc nhau c cc iu kin th ch khc nhau v do c cc phn ng chnh sch khc nhau i vi cng mt c sc vi cc knh tc ng khc nhau cha chc l tt. Trn thc t, mi quan h gia ti khon vng lai v cc nhn t nh hng khc mi nc khng ch ph thuc vo cc c im ring ca mi nc m quan trng hn con ph thuc vo mc nhy cm ca ti khon vng lai i vi cc nhn t ny. M hnh hi quy theo nc khng th tch bit c nhng khc bit ny m n gi nh cc yu t l ng nht. Cc cch tip cn khc c m t trong nghin cu ca IMF cng gp phi vn tng t. Do , vic p dng cc phng php ny cho trng hp Vit Nam cn phi rt thn trng bi v cc vn cp trn. Mt cch tip cn khc l da vo khi nim t gi cn bng hnh vi (BEER) do MacDonald (1997) v Clark v MacDonald (1998) a ra trong lin h t gi thc t vi mt nhm cc bin kinh t v m bi mt phng trnh duy nht. Phng trnh ny sau
39
s c c lng thng k s dng chui s liu quan st c v cc gi tr di hn ca cc bin c s nhm c lng t gi cn bng. Mt dng khc ca BEER l t gi cn bng di hn (PEER) l phng php xc nh t gi cn bng s dng vc t ng tch hp phn gi t gi thnh cu phn di hn v ngn hn trong cu phn di hn chnh l t gi cn bng. Mt cch tip cn na l da vo vic c lng chui s liu theo thi gian mi quan h ng tch hp trong di hn gia t gi thc t v cc i lng c bn trong trung hn v di hn nh s khc bit v li sut, ti sn nc ngoi rong, nng sut, gi tng i gia hng XK-NK. Chng ti cho rng phng php ny thch hp hn c cho trng hp Vit Nam trong iu kin hn ch v s liu. Chng ta s xem xt c th phng php ny di y. Cch tip cn BEER cng c p dng trong rt nhiu nghin cu gn y v t gi. Trong m hnh BEER a ra bi Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004), cc bin gii thch bao gm s khc bit v nng sut, gi tng i gia hng thng mi v phi thng mi (phn nh hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson), ti sn nc ngoi rong, gi tng i gia hng XK-NK, m ca nn kinh t (t trng tng kim ngch XNK trong GDP), s khc bit v li sut thc, chi tiu Chnh ph v FDI. Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004) s dng 4 phng php xc nh t gi cn bng: (i) phng php lc Hodrick-Prescott, (ii) phng php lc Band-Pass, (iii) phng php Engle-Granger, v (iv) phng php ARDL. Hai phng php cui l da trn m hnh BEER ni trn. Jongwanich (2009) a ra mt phng php khc hon ton c th thc hin c trong thc t xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi s dng m hnh BEER. Cc bin c bn m Jongwanich s dng cng kh tng ng vi nhm cc bin s m Frait v cc
40
ng tc gi (2009) s dng. Tuy nhin, t gi thc m Jongwanich (2009) s dng khng phi l t gi song phng m l t gi a phng (REER). Sau khi tnh ton REER v c c cc s liu v cc bin kinh t c bn, Jongwanich (2009) s dng th tc Johansen xc nh mi quan h ng tch hp trong di hn gia cc bin v qua xc nh c t gi cn bng. Sau khi xc nh c t gi cn bng th vic tip theo s l xc nh mc sai lch ca t gi. C Jongwanich (2009) v Frait cng cc ng tc gi (2004) u cho rng mc sai lch ca t gi l s khc bit gia t gi hin hnh v mc cn bng trong di hn ca n. C hai khi nim v mc sai lch ca t gi. Khi nim th nht l sai lch hin tai, chnh l s khc bit gia t gi hin hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi tr hin hnh ca cc bin kinh t c bn. Sai lch hin ti chnh l s bin ng ngn hn ca t gi. Khi nim th 2 l tng sai lch, l s khc bit gia t gi hin hnh v gi tr c lng ca t gi s dng cc gi tr bn vng ca cc bin kinh t c bn. Ging nh Clark v MacDonald (1998) v Jongwanich (2009), chng ta nh ngha t gi thc hin hnh nh sau:
trong T l nhm cc bin ngn hn, Z1t v Z2t l cc bin kinh t c bn trung v di hn. Gi Z1t v Z2t l cc gi tr bn vng ca cc bin kinh t c bn trung v di hn th t gi cn bng c xc nh bi cng thc sau:
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Nghin cu ca chng ti v t gi cn bng v mc sai lch ca t gi s da trn cch tip cn BEER nh Frait v cc ng tc gi (2004) v Jongwanich (2009) lm. T gi thc cn bng c xc nh t ngang bng li sut ngm nh (UIP) v ph thuc vo cc bin kinh t v m c bn nh s khc bit v nng sut, ti sn nc ngoi rong, gi tng i gia hng XK-NK, m ca nn kinh t, s khc bit v li sut thc, chi tiu Chnh ph v FDI. Phng trnh t gi nh sau6:
NFA c d on c mi quan h ngc chiu vi REER. S gia tng ca NFA thng c tc ng v mt thu nhp lm tng cu ni a. khi phc cc cn i bn trong v bn ngoi, gi ca hng phi thng mi phi tng so vi gi hng thng mi. Do , REER gim xung (tc l ln gi). Tng trng nng sut khu vc mu dch ni a so vi cc nc bn hng (PROD) c tc ng ngc chiu ti REER thng qua hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson. S gia tng ca PROD lm tng cu v lao ng trong nc trong ngnh sn xut hng mu dch. Di iu kin v vic lm y , lao ng s b ht t khu vc hng mu dch sang khu vc hng phi mu dch. Do mc lng khu vc phi mu dch s tng lm tng gi hng phi mu dch. Kt qu l REER s gim.
6
V vic xy dng phng trnh ny, xem Clark v MacDonald (1998), Jongwanich (2009).
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S ci thin v gi tng i XNK (TOT) c ngha l gi XK tng ln tng i so vi gi NK. iu ny s nh hng ti t gi REER thng qua hiu ng thu nhp v thay th. Mt mt, thu nhp tng lm tng cu ni a, qua lm REER gim. Mt khc, gi hng NK thp tng i c ngha l lng cu v hng mu dch tng ln v lng cu v hng phi mu dch gim xung. Hiu ng thay th ny do dn ti vic gi hng phi mu dch gim lm t gi tng. V hiu ng thu nhp v thay th ngc chiu nhau nn xu hng tc ng ca TOT ti REER l khng r rng. Nh Jongwanich (2009) ch ra, rt nhiu nghin cu thc nghim cho thy cc nc ang pht trin, s ci thin v TOT c xu hng lm gim REER v hiu ng thu nhp thng mnh hn hiu ng thay th cc nc ny. m ca ln hn ca nn kinh t dn ti cu v hng mu dch cao hn. khi phc trng thi cn bng th gi hng phi mu dch phi gim lm dch chuyn cu t hng mu dch sang hng phi mu dch. Do , REER c d on l s c quan h thun chiu vi m ca ca nn kinh t. Tc ng ca chi tiu Chnh ph (GEXP) i vi t gi REER l khng r rng v ph thuc vo vic Chnh ph chi nhiu vo hng mu dch hay phi mu dch. Tng chi tiu Chnh ph vo hng phi mu dch c ngha l cu v hng phi mu dch tng v gi ca n cng tng ln. Do REER s gim. Mt khc nu Chnh ph chi nhiu vo hng mu dch th c tc ng ngc li i vi t gi. Nu nh Chnh ph chi phn ln vo hng phi mu dch th chng ta on rng GEXP v REER c quan h ngc chiu. C chnh lch v li sut thc v FDI u c d on l c mi quan h nghch chiu vi t gi. Chnh lch li sut cng cao lm cho ngun vn chy vo trong nc cng nhiu trong khi FDI cao cng ng ngha vi vic dong vn chy vo s cao. Do t gi REER s gim phc hi cn bng bn trong v bn ngoi.
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bng 2. c lng REER di han cho mi quc gia: Tm tt kt qu cho cc nc thu nhp thp (lICs) v cc nn kinh t mi ni (EMEs)
LICs S S h s di hn c c lng Trong s c ngha thng k l 52 29 55,8 Phn trm S 51 48 94,1 EMEs Phn trm
30 16 10 53,3 33,3
24 24 16 100 66,7
M hnh ny c s dng kh nhiu trong nhng nm gn y v cho nhng kt qu rt hu ch. Tuy nhin, cn phi ch mt s yu t lm cho vic c lng, p dng v din gii REER cc nc ang pht trin tr nn phc tp hn. Cc yu t ny gm c cc c sc v gi tng i gia XK-NK, nhng thay i thng xuyn v mt chnh tr v th ch, s khng hon ho ca th trng, tnh d thay i ca cc dong ti chnh, cc vn v iu hnh t gi v kim sot vn (Gabriel Di Bella, Mark Lewis, and Aurlie Martin. (2007)). Do vy vic c lng REER c th c kt qu ngoi d on v kh gii thch. Nhm nghin cu ca IMF ch ra rng ch 1/3 cc h s di hn c lng c trong cc m hnh cc nc LICs l ng v du ng thi c ngha thng k (Bng 2).
la CHN M HNH V KT QU THC NGHIM CHo VIT NaM
Do mt s kh khn v s sn c v tin cy ca s liu, chng ti tin hnh c lng t gi REER Vit Nam vi s liu theo qu bt u t qu I nm 2000 tr li y. S liu s dng c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai lch ca t gi l s liu chui thi gian theo qu, ly ch yu t 2
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ngun chnh Tng cc Thng k v IFS cho giai on 2000 2010. NFA c tnh theo t l ca NFA ca ton b h thng ngn hng (c s d liu IFS) trn GDP danh ngha (ly t GSO). PROD l t l gia GDP thc t bnh qun trn lao ng ca Vit Nam v ca M, dng lm bin thay th cho khc bit v nng sut gia Vit Nam v cc bn hng chnh. S liu c tnh ton da trn s liu ly t Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam v c s d liu ca Ngn hng D tr Lin bang M. TOT c tnh bng t l gia ch s gi xut khu v ch s gi nhp khu ly t Tng cc Thng k. m ca ca nn kinh t Vit Nam c thay th bng t l gia tng kim ngch xut nhp khu trn GDP danh ngha, tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc Thng k. Chi tiu Chnh ph, GEXP, l t l gia chi tiu Chnh ph trn GDP danh ngha. S liu ly t Tng cc Thng k v B Ti chnh. Cui cng l FDI o bng t l u t trc tip nc ngoi trn GDP danh ngha ly t c s d liu IFS. Tt c cc bin, tr REER, u c iu chnh tnh ma v bi cc tc gi.
la chn m hnh
Chng ti s dng th tc tiu chun c lng REER. Trc ht, chng ti s dng cc k thut c lng v m hnh thch hp xc nh cc yu t tc ng ti REER trong di hn. Sau gi tr c lng BEER s c tnh bng gi tr c lng di hn ca REER da trn gi tr lc ca cc bin kinh t c bn. S chnh lch gia gi tr hin hnh ca REER v gi tr BEER c lng c chnh l lch ca t gi. Phn quan trng nht trong th tc ny chnh l vic xc nh m hnh. Nh cp trn, chng ta c th s dng m hnh iu chnh sai s c lng cc h s di hn cho phng trnh REER. Trong trng hp c nhiu hn 1 vc t ng tch hp th phng trnh di hn c th kh xc nh hn. Kim nh v ng tch hp cho thy c 5 vc t ng tch hp (Bng 3). V vy, vic xc nh
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mi quan h trong di hn vi ch 1 phng trnh l kh khn. Do m hnh iu chnh sai s c ve nh khng thch hp trong trng hp ny.
bng 3. Kim nh mc ng tch hp: tr (sai phn bc 1): 1 n 3
Kim nh Trace Test S phng trnh ng tch hp gi nh Khng * Ti a c 1 * Ti a c 2 * Ti a c 3 * Ti a c 4 * Ti a c 5 Gi tr Eigen 0,864 0,780 0,699 0,562 0,531 0,005 Thng k Trace 233,043 159,282 103,232 58,765 28,198 0,175 Gi tr kim nh 0.05 95,754 69,819 47,856 29,797 15,495 3,841 Kim nh Max-Eigen Thng k Max-Eigen 73,761 56,050 44,467 30,567 28,023 0,175 Gi tr kim nh 0,05 40,078 33,877 27,584 21,132 14,265 3,841
Ch : Kim nh Trace cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05. Kim nh gi tr Max-eigenvalue cho thy c 5 phng trnh ng tch hp ti mc 0,05.
Do nguyn nhn cp trn, chng ti s s dng m hnh phn phi tr t hi quy a thc (Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag) ARPDL. V l thuyt, m hnh ny c dng nh sau:
trong REER l t gi thc hu hiu FDI: t l FDI trn GDP NFA: t l ti sn nc ngoi rong trn GDP OPEN: ch s m ca ca nn kinh t PROD: ch s chnh lch nng sut tt c cc bin trn u dng lgarit;
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Cc bc 1, 2, v 4 th hin tc ng tr sau 1 qu, na nm, v 1 nm. Vic la chn dng no s ph thuc vo cc tiu ch AIC v SBC. Bng 4 tm tt cc kt qu c lng ca m hnh vi 4 la chn t hi quy nh cp trn. T kt qu ny, chng ti quyt nh chn dng t hi quy AR(1) v n cho gi tr AIC v SBC nh nht.
bng 4. Tm tt cc kt qu hi quy vi 4 la chn v t hi quy
AR1 H s FDI NFA OPEN TOT PROD -0.056 0.504 -0.214 -0.191 -4.328 Thng k t -1.076 3.900 -1.619 -0.569 -5.609 H s -0.071 0.502 -0.255 -0.374 -3.790 AR12 Thng k t -1.238 3.704 -1.524 -0.910 -3.372 H s -0.094 0.511 -0.267 -0.385 -3.484 AR2 Thng k t -1.916 4.271 -1.724 -1.089 -4.190 H s -0.099 0.537 -0.402 -0.095 -3.678 AR4 Thng k t -1.990 4.699 -2.427 -0.298 -3.817
R-squared Adjusted R-squared Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat
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C th thy rng ngoi NFA th tt c cc h s c lng ca cc bin c lp u cho du ng nh d on, tuy rng ch c 2 h s l c ngha thng k. H s c lng ca NFA c du ngc vi d on ban u nhng li c ngha thng k. iu ny cng th hin trong cc c lng s dng dng t hi quy khc v kh nht qun. Do vy, chng ti kt lun rng c mi quan h di hn gia cc bin t gi, ti sn nc ngoi rong, chnh lch nng sut, m ca nn kinh t v FDI. Trong cc bin c bn th chnh lch nng sut, m ca nn kinh t v FDI mt mc no c tc ng nh d on trong di hn ti t gi. So vi kt qu c lng cho cc nc c thu nhp thp hoc cc nn kinh t mi ni trong Chinn (2005) th c lng REER ca Vit Nam cng cho kt qu kh tt. C mt s vn cn l gii, chng hn nh tc ng tri chiu ca NFA ti t gi cn bng nhng nhn chung kt qu c lng l c ngha. Nu chnh lch v nng sut tng 1% s lm REER gim 4,33% (hng Vit Nam ln gi) trong khi 1% tng ln ca FDI lm cho t gi thc hu hiu gim khong 0,056%. Bng 4 cng cho thy nu m ca ca nn kinh t tng 1% s lm t gi gim 0,21%. im cui cng c th thy l mi quan h gia NFA v REER Vit Nam khng ng nh l thuyt d bo khi m theo c lng s gia tng ca NFA thm 1% s lm REER tng 0,5%. Hnh 10 v cc gi tr REER thc t v cc gi tr c lng BEER. Trc ht c th thy rng, nu xt v bin ng theo thi gian th t gi cn bng theo c lng bin ng theo cng chiu vi REER trong 10 nm qua, tc l gim gi cho ti qu cui cng ca nm 2003 v ln gi sau tr i. iu th hai, khi so snh vi gi tr cn bng, ta c th thy l t gi hin hnh b nh gi cao trong giai on t qu I nm 2000 cho ti qu II nm 2002. Sau giai on ny th t gi thc hu hiu li lin tc b nh gi thp (so vi gi tr cn bng) cho ti u nm 2008. K t tr i t gi REER
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li i vo giai on nh gi cao ging nh giai on u nhng nm 2000 nhng mc cao hn trc v cho ti gia nm 2010 b nh gi cao hn 20% so vi gi tr cn bng. iu ny lm gim sc cnh tranh v gi ca hng Vit Nam so vi cc nc khc.
Hnh 10. T gi cn bng
8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 00:1
02:1 BEER_PDL
04:1
06:1 REE_PDL_AR1
08:1
10:1 VNREER
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
VNREER VNREER_HP
REE_PDL_AR1 BEER_PDL
nh gi chi tit mc sai lch ca t gi, chng ti tnh ton v v th 2 loi lch t gi l sai lch hin ti v tng sai lch, kt qu c trnh by hnh 11. Giai on trc nm 2002, tng sai lch l m (tng ng vi nh gi qu cao) trong c thi im t ti trn m 20%. Giai on tip theo l giai on t gi b nh gi thp vi tng sai lch dao ng trong khong 0 n dng 18% cho ti u nm 2008. Trong nhng nm gn y, mc lch ca t gi hin hnh so vi mc cn bng dao ng trong khong t 0 n m 20%. T hnh 11 cng c th thy rng phn ln s sai lch v t gi l do s tc ng ca cc yu t ngn hn v lch hin ti chim phn ln trong tng lch ca t gi.
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Hnh 11. Sai lch ca T gi: Tng sai lch v Sai lch hin tai
-.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 00:1
-.20 -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 00:1 02:1 04:1 06:1 08:1 10:1
02:1
04:1
06:1
08:1
10:1
KT lUN
Kt qu c lng t gi thc hu hiu di hn v tnh ton sai lch ca t gi khng nh mt thc t l ng tin ca Vit Nam lin tc b nh gi cao trong 3 nm u ca thp k va qua v tip tc xu hng trong 3 nm gn y vi mc con nghim trng hn trc. Xen gia hai giai on ny l giai on m ng tin b nh gi thp nhng khng n nh v c lc b lch ti 20% trc khi khng hong ton cu xy ra. Kt qu ny cn phi kim tra thm, bao gm c cc phn tch nhy cm ca vic la chn m hnh v cc bin s. Tuy nhin, kt qu ny cho thy c rt nhiu vn trong cch m Chnh ph v Ngn hng Trung ng iu hnh chnh sch t gi. Chng hn, nhiu ngi cng mun bit c phi s sai lch v t gi ny l kt qu ca cc hnh ng c ch nhm mt mc ch chnh sch no hay khng, v cc c quan chc nng c nhn bit c s sai lch v t gi v c bin php no gim bt s sai lch ny hay khng? nh hng ca s sai lch t gi i vi mt s ch s kinh t l nh th no? Tr li c cc cu hi ny s gip cho vic iu hnh nn kinh t tr nn thun li hn trong tng lai. Tuy vic tr li tt c cc cu hi ny l khng d dng, chng ti cng mun lm r hn mt trong cc vn nu trn, l tc ng ca t gi ti xut khu. Phn tip theo s i vo nghin cu vn ny mt cch c th.
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CHNG
c nhiu cng trnh nghin cu n tc ng ca t gi n xut khu ni ring v cn cn thng mi ni chung. Cc cng trnh nghin cu ny nhn chung u xy dng trn c s hm xut khu v hm cu nhp khu. Thm vo , phn ng cc nghin cu trong lnh vc ny tp trung vo tc ng ca t gi n tng xut/nhp khu ca c nn kinh t (Senhadji (1998), Vasquez and Charquero (2007), Garg and Ramesh (2005) trn c s kim nh iu kin Marshall-Lerner v tc ng ca t gi n vic ci thin cn cn thanh ton hoc cn cn thng mi. Cng c nhng cng trnh nh gi tc ng ca t gi n tng sn phm ring bit. Konandreas v cc ng tc gi (1978) c lng hm cu nhp khu i vi la m ca M t 5 khu vc khc nhau. Theo cch c lng ny, cu nhp khu la m ca M l hm ph thuc vo lng la m sn xut ti ch (c coi nh mt hng thay th vi sn phm la m M), gi c tng i gia la m ti ch v la m nhp khu t M, thu nhp bnh qun v lng la m c xut khu t M theo chng trnh u i c bit. Theo m hnh ny th t gi c th tc ng n xut khu la m ca M theo hai knh tc ng chnh. l gi tng i (hay t gi thc gia la M v ng tin a phng v knh th hai l
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thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tnh theo USD. Mt nghin cu khc ca Gunawardanav cc ng tc gi (2008) cp n tc ng ca t gi n mt sn phm. l m hnh hm cu ca Thi Lan v sn phm t sa ca Australia. Cng trnh ny s dng hm cu nhp khu truyn thng trong bin gi c v bin t gi c tch ring ra. Gi tng i c xc nh nh l t s gia gi xut khu ca M vi ch s gi ca cc i th cnh tranh trn th trng nc nhp khu.
NH DNG M HNH
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti s dng m hnh iu chnh sai s vector (vector error correction model (VECM)) nh gi tc ng ca t gi n xut khu ca Vit Nam ra cc th trng khc. V mt nguyn tc, m hnh ny c th p dng cho c bin s v khi lng xut khu v tng kim ngch xut khu cho mt sn phm nht nh. Tuy nhin vic s dng bin kim ngch xut khu thay cho khi lng xut khu trong m hnh c mt s u im nht nh: Cc kt qu suy ra t 2 m hnh (s dng khi lng xut khu hay kim ngch xut khu) c th khng khc nhau nhiu v ngha thng k. S khc bit c chng s l mc nh hng, th hin gi tr ca cc h s c c lng. Thc ra v kim ngch xut khu bng tch ca khi lng v gi c nn khi a vo m hnh di dng hm logarit, chng ta c th c 2 m hnh tng ng vi cc sai s khc nhau. Trong c hai trng hp th c lng thu c u l c lng khng chch. S dng hm c lng vi bin gii thch l khi lng xut khu s kh ch ra tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi hoc cn cn thanh ton. Do vy s hn ch ngha ca m hnh. Ngc li c lng hm kim ngch
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xut khu s cho ta nhng thng tin nhn bit tt hn v tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi/cn cn thanh ton. im cui cng l phm vi p dng ca m hnh vi bin gii thch l kim ngch xut khu s rng hn v trong nhiu trng hp thng tin v khi lng xut khu l khng c c hoc kh tip cn.
Bn cnh mt trong nhng li th ca vic s dng m hnh VECM l c th c c cc thng tin v tc ng ca t gi trong di hn v ngn hn, cc hm phn ng (impulse function) M hnh VECM s dng trong nghin cu ny c dng chung nh sau:
Trong : EXPORT l log ca xut khu ca Vit Nam sang M. DEMAND l log ca tng kim ngch nhp khu ca M (theo tng sn phm). Gi tr ny c coi nh l bin i din cho tng nhu cu ca M v sn phm trn. EXRATE l t gi thc ca ng Vit Nam. Phng trnh th hin phng trnh cn bng trong di hn hoc vector ng tch hp gia t gi v xut khu. Cc h s 1 v 2 trong cc phng trnh v th hin tc iu chnh n trng thi cn bng di hn ca nn kinh t.
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Trong nghin cu ny chng ti tch hai thnh t: t gi danh ngha v ch s gi c ra khi bin t gi thc xem xt tc ng ca c hai bin s ny: t gi danh ngha v ch s gi c n xut khu. Cch tip cn ny c nhng u im hn so vi vic nghin cu tc ng ca t gi thc bi l trn thc t cc giao dch thng mi gia nh xut khu v nhp khu thng c da trn c s t gi danh ngha (c th iu chnh theo ch s gi c trong mt vi trng hp). Do vy bin t gi danh ngha s l ph hp hn so vi bin t gi thc trong vic ra cc quyt nh v xut khu. Cc doanh nghip vn tip tc xut khu ngay c khi t gi thc c chiu hng tng gi trong khi t gi danh ngha vn gim. Thc t v xut khu ca Vit Nam trong thi gian quan khi t gi thc v t gi danh ngha tin trin theo hai xu hng ngc chiu nhau do mc lm pht tng cao c ve nh ng h lun im ny. C th coi y nh mt hin tng o gic v t gi khi nh xut khu vn tip tc xut khu khi thu nhp thc t b gim do t gi thc tng trong khi t gi danh ngha gim, tng t nh hin tng o gic tin t trn th trng lao ng khi ngi lao ng tng cu lao ng khi tin lng danh ngha tng mc d tin lng thc t gim. Do vy m hnh p dng trong nghin cu ny bao gm 3 bin c bn ni sinh: kim ngch xut khu EXPORT, t gi danh ngha EXRATE, v ch s gi c PRICE. Dng tng qut ca m hnh VECM c th hin trong cc phng trnh di y:
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Trong v l cc vector ng tch hp. Tt c cc bin u dng logarit t nhin. Trong m hnh ny cc bin tng nhp khu ca M USIMPORT v ch s gi c ca M, USPRICE l cc bin ngoi sinh. Gi thit ny c xy dng trn c s l khi lng xut khu ca Vit Nam vo th trng M l cha ln n mc chi phi th trng M c v gi c v khi lng giao dch. Mt trong nhng vn c quan tm hin nay nc ta l nh hng ca Trung Quc ti cc th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam. Mt mt chnh sch t gi ca Trung quc theo hng duy tr ng nhn dn t yu c tc dng thc y xut khu ca Trung Quc do vy c th nh hng n cc i th cnh tranh khc trn cng mt th trng. Vit Nam c nhiu im chung v danh mc hng ha xut khu vo cc th trng chnh nh Trung quc (dt may, giy dp, in t). V vy c th xut khu ca Vit Nam b nh hng ca xut khu t Trung Quc. Mt khc nu l cc mt hng b sung th tc ng cnh tranh s theo chiu khc hn. xem xt nh hng ca c 2 yu t: kim ngch xut khu v t gi ng nhn dn t n xut khu ca Vit Nam trn cng mt th trng, chng ti m rng m hnh bng cch b sung thm 2 bin ngoi sinh l kim ngch xut khu ca Trung Quc v t gi nhn dn t so vi ng tin bn a ti th trng nhp khu. M hnh m rng vn l m hnh VECM vi 3 bin ngoi sinh v 2 vector ng tch hp
S lIU
Trong nghin cu ny chng ti dung 2 ngun s liu thng mi chnh c lng m hnh. i vi th trng M, chng ti s dng c s liu ca US Trade data vi mc SITC cp 3 (3-digit SITC). Theo cch phn loi ny th c ti 262 nhm sn phm. Tuy nhin trong m hnh, chng ti ch s dng 195 nhm sn phm v
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mt s nhm sn phm khc khng c s liu cho vic c lng m hnh. Bn cnh chng ti cng s dng s liu thng mi ca Global Trade Information System (GTIS) trong phn loi HS cp 2 (2-digit HS) cho c lng m hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam vo cc th trng M, chu u (nhm 15 nc s dng ng tin chung Euro), Nht Bn v Hn Quc. y l nhng thi trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam. S liu v ch s gi v t gi ca Vit Nam c ly ra t ngun ca Tng cc Thng k v Vietcombank. Cc s liu ny cng c s dng trong vic tnh REER phn trc. S liu v t gi v ch s gi c ca cc i tc cng l nhng s liu c s dng trong phn tnh REER ni trn.
CC KT QU CHNH
C 3 m hnh ni trn u c c lng sau khi thc hin cc kim nh thng k v tch hp, vector ng tch hp. iu ng ni l cc kt qu kh nht qun, bt k ngun s liu s dng (SITC hay GTIS). Vic thm cc bin ni sinh lin quan n Trung Quc c lm thay i v mc tc ng ca t gi n xut khu, nhng khng lm thay i n chiu hng tc ng chung. M hnh p dng cho cc th trng xut khu ca Vit Nam cng c cng chung mt kt lun: trn 2/3 kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam chu nh hng tch cc ca vic gim gi danh ngha ng Vit Nam. Ni cch khc, vic gim gi ng Vit Nam v tng th c th c li cho xut khu. S dng cc kt qu t vic c lng m hnh VECM, c bit l thng tin v hm phn hi xung (impulse response function), ta c th biu din kt qu tc ng ca t gi n xut khu thng qua ma trn tc ng hai thi k di y. Theo bng ny, cc gi tr ca hm phn hi xung thi k c th hin trn cc ct con gi tr lin quan n hm phn hi
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xung thi k 2 c th hin theo dong. Bng 5 cho thy c ti 90% kim ngch xut khu c th c ci thin ti giai on 2 sau khi ng Vit Nam gim gi, v ch c 10% b gim do tc ng ny. Tuy nhin tc ng n ci thin xut khu s suy gim dn theo thi gian do tc ng iu chnh ca th trng v sau hai giai on tip theo ch con 3/4 kim ngch xut khu con c kh nng tip tc ci thin. y l mt kt qu rt kh quan v tc ng tch cc ca vic gim gi ng tin Vit Nam i vi xut khu. Xem xt c th v cc ngnh xut khu c hng li t vic gim gi ng Vit Nam cho thy y l cc nhm hng hin ang dn u kim ngch xut khu vo th trng M nh dt may, da giy, thc phm, g.
bng 5. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: Th trng M, s liu SICT
Giai on 2, Giai on 4 Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2.5% Tng t 0-2.5% Tng s Gim di 10% 7,07 0,31 12,27 19,60 Gim t 0- 2,5% 0,11 0,00 3,46 3,58 Tng t 0-2,5% 0,28 1,85 74,54 76,68 Tng s 7,45 2,16 90,27 100,00
Kt qu tng t (vi mc khc nhau) i vi cc th trng xut khu chnh ca Vit Nam nh Hn Quc, Nht Bn, khu vc ng Euro trong c hai kch bn: c hoc khng c yu t Trung Quc c th hin trong Bng 6. Cc kt qu mt ln na li khng nh tc ng tch cc ca vic gim gi ng Vit Nam n xut khu. Tuy nhin c mt im khc bit ng lu l tc ng ny khng ch ph thuc vo nhm hng ha m con ph thuc vo cc th trng (mc d hai yu t ny khng hon ton loi tr nhau). Cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc c ve khng c phn ng ln i vi yu t t gi. Kim ngch
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xut khu c th c ci thin nh gim gi ng Vit Nam ch chim khong 50%, trong khi con s ny trong 2 th trng M v khi ng Euro l khong 3/4. Tuy nhin khi tnh n yu t Trung Quc th tc ng rong ca t gi li tr v tng t nh trn cc th trng khc. iu cho thy yu t Trung Quc t ra mnh hn trn cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc i vi Vit Nam. C l c cu th trng v c cu xut khu ca Vit Nam l nhng nhn t c th l gii hin tng trn.
bng 6. Tc ng ca t gi n xut khu theo hm phn hi xung: Cc th trng xut khu chnh, s liu GTIS
Khng c yu t Trung Quc Giai on 2 EU15 Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s Nht Bn Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s Hn Quc Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s M Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s 2,0 0,0 0,0 2,0 7,2 13,2 2,7 23,1 0,0 0,1 74,8 75,0 9,2 13,3 77,5 100,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 4,4 6,0 16,4 26,8 0,0 0,2 72,0 72,2 5,4 6,2 88,4 100,0 1,3 0,0 0,0 1,3 22,9 6,9 9,9 39,7 0,0 5,0 54,0 59,0 24,1 11,9 63,9 100,0 1,7 0,0 0,0 1,7 21,5 6,8 0,9 29,2 0,0 4,8 64,2 69,0 23,2 11,6 65,2 100,0 5,1 0,0 0,0 5,1 8,0 14,1 23,7 45,8 0,0 0,2 48,8 49,0 13,1 14,3 72,6 100,0 1,9 0,0 0,0 1,9 6,5 4,6 1,1 12,2 0,0 0,1 85,8 85,9 8,4 4,7 87,0 100,0 4,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 0,6 21,5 0,1 22,2 0,0 0,3 73,5 73,8 4,6 21,9 73,6 100,0 4,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 1,7 26,3 0,0 27,9 0,0 0,1 68,0 68,1 5,6 26,4 68,0 100,0 Gim di 10% Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s Gim di 10% C yu t Trung Quc Gim t 0- 2,5% Tng t 0-2,5% Tng s
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KT lUN
Kt qu c lng m hnh VECM cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu. Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c ny cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc.
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CHNG
T nhng kt qu phn tch trn y c th rt ra mt s bi hc chnh sch nh sau: Th nht, vic phn tch din bin ca t gi v cc bin php iu hnh t gi trong hai nm gn y cho thy, cho n thi im tin hnh nghin cu ny (qu II nm 2011) c nhiu bin php iu chnh t gi tch cc t pha cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong vic iu chnh t gi theo gn th trng nhm gim bt p lc trn th trng ngoi hi do tc ng ca lm pht cao trong nc v nhng bin ng trn th trng vng trong nc v quc t. Cc ng thi gim gi VND trong thng 8 nm 2010 khi p lc trn th trng ngoi hi con cha mnh v gim su gi VND vo thng 2 nm 2011 th hin mt chnh sch t gi kh linh hot, theo hng th trng hn. Tuy nhin Ngn hng Nh nc vn con p dng kh nhiu cc bin php hnh chnh trong iu hnh t gi c bit trong thi gian gn y. Mc sai lch t gi kh cao trong thi gian di (nh s ni phn sau) cng l nhng minh chng cho kt lun ny. Ap lc (gim gi) trn th trng ngoi hi vn con mnh v c chiu hng tip tc gia tng trong thi gian gn y m bng chng l mc gi thp trn th trng bn ngoi v st mc trn quy nh). Xu hng ny c th s tip tc trong thi gian trc mt, k c u nm 2012 do p lc t lm pht, thm ht cn cn thng mi, tng
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trng tn dng bng ngoi t v cc biu hin u c. iu oi hi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cn tip tc cam kt i theo hng th trng trong qun l t gi nh nhng nm gn y khi phc nim tin ca th trng. Hai l, cch c lng t gi thc hu hiu (real effective exchange rate REER) cng ch ra rng y l thng tin hu ch c th gip cc nh nghin cu, hoch nh chnh sch s dng trong vic phn tch, ra quyt nh, nh gi cc bin php chnh sch lin quan n t gi, thng mi. T trc ti nay ch c thng tin v REER theo nm do vy kh c th s dng vo cc hot ng theo di, nh gi thng xuyn hn. Cc kt qu c lng v REER tnh theo phng php ca nhm nghin cu trn c s la chn hp l tn sut (theo qu) v quy m s liu (20 bn hng ln nht ca Vit Nam) th hin kh tng ng vi nhng din bin v t gi v thng mi ca nc ta trong thi gian t 2000 n nay. iu ny cho thy cch tnh ny l kh tin cy v nn c a vo p dng trong thi gian ti, c bit phc v cho cc hot ng gim st, thm nh v nh gi ca y ban Kinh t v cc chnh sch c lin quan. Ba l, cc kt qu c lng t gi cn bng v mc sai lch vi t gi cn bng cho thy ng thi ca t gi cn bng cng tng t nh ng thi ca REER. Theo cch c lng ny th VND b nh gi trn 20% vo thi im gia nm 2010 v cng tri qua mt thi k bin ng theo hng mt gi ti 20% trc khi xy ra khng hong kinh t ton cu. C hai c tnh ny: nh gi cao v bin ng ln u c th nh hng tiu cc n nn kinh t. ng tin b nh gi cao s nh hng xu n nng lc cnh tranh ca Vit Nam trn th trng quc t trong khi dao ng ln trn th trng ngoi hi s nh hng n nn kinh t ni chung v gim st nim tin ca cng chng vo ng Vit Nam. Vn chnh sch t ra y l: (i) liu mc sai lch t gi nh trn c phi l kt
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qu ca mt ch trng iu hnh t gi c ch ch nhm t mt/ nhng mc tiu chnh sch no khng; ni cch khc (ii) liu cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c thc c mc sai lch v t gi nh vy khng v c nhng bin php g lm gim nh mc sai lch, bin ng ca t gi hoc nhng tc ng bt li ca cc sai lch, bin ng ln khng; cui cng l (iii) vic sai lch c nh hng nh th no n tnh trng kinh t v m ni chung? y l nhng vn chnh sch cn tip tc c tho lun v nghin cu. Vic c lng v hon thin phng php c lng cng nh c s thng tin cho vic c lng ny cn tip tc c thc hin v dn dn th ch ha trong cc hot ng ca cc bn hu quan. Cui cng, l kt qu nghin cu theo phng php v s liu mi trn din rng cho thy t gi c nh hng ln n xut khu ca Vit Nam. Tc ng ny ph thuc vo c hai yu t: sn phm xut khu v th trng xut khu. Kt lun ny c th khng hon ton mi nhng n ti khng nh kh nng s dng cng c t gi trong vic thc y xut khu. Nhiu mt hng Vit Nam c li th xut khu nh dt may, giy da, g, thit b in t c phn ng tch cc i vi vic gim gi ng Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, vic nn hay khng nn s dng cng c t gi trong bi cnh hin nay, hay khng cn phi tnh ton n cc yu t v mc tiu khc trong nn kinh t. Nhng lo ngi v tc ng bt li ca gim gi ng Vit Nam n lm pht, kh nng tr n, tnh hnh ti chnh ca cc doanh nghip lin quan n n nc ngoi l nhng lo ngi chnh ng, cn c xem xt. Vn ny cn c gii quyt trong mt khun kh phn tch chnh sch khc.
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PH LC
bng a. 1. C ch t gi ca Vit Nam theo thi gian, 1989-2011
Mc thi gian C ch p dng c im ch t gi thc t (de facto) - Ba t gi chnh thc. Trc 1989 C ch nhiu t gi - T gi th trng t do tn ti song song vi cc t gi ca nh nc (cho ti thi im bo co). - T gi chnh thc c thng nht (OER). Neo t gi vi bin 1989-1990 c iu chnh (crawling bands) - OER c NHNN iu chnh da trn cc tn hiu lm pht, li sut, cn cn thanh ton, v t gi th trng t do. - Cc Ngn hng Thng mi c php thit lp t gi giao dch trong bin +/-5%. - Vic s dng ngoi t c kim sot cht ch. - Kim sot vic s dng ngoi t cht ch hn; hn ch mang tin ra khi Neo t gi trong bin (pegged 1991-1993 exchange rate within horizontal bands) bin gii. - Thnh lp qu d tr ngoi t chnh thc n nh t gi. - Thnh lp 2 sn giao dch ngoi t TP. HCM v H ni. - OER c hnh thnh da trn cc t gi u thu ti hai sn; NHNN can thip mnh vo giao dch trn hai sn. - T gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi dao ng thp hn 0,5% OER cng b. - Th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng c hnh thnh thay th cho 2 sn giao C ch t gi neo c nh 1994-1996 (conventional fixed peg arrangement) dch t gi; NHNN tip tc can thip mnh vo giao dch trn th trng ny. - OER c hnh thnh v cng b da trn t gi lin ngn hng. - T gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi dao ng trong bin +/-0,5% OER cng b. n cui 1996, bin c ni rng t thp hn +/-0,5% ln +/-1% (11/1996). - OER c gi n nh mc 11.100VND/USD. - Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi so vi OER c ni rng t Neo t gi vi bin 1997-1998 c iu chnh (crawling bands) +/-1% ln +/-5% (02/97)v t +/-5% ln +/-10% (13/10/97) v sau c iu chnh xung khng qu 7% (7/8/98). - OER c iu chnh ln 11.800VND/USD (16/02/98) v 12.998 VND/USD (07/08/98). C ch t gi neo c nh 1999-2000 (conventional fixed peg arrangement)
- OER cng b l t gi lin ngn hng trung bnh ngy lm vic hm trc (28/2/99) - Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi gim xung khng qu 0,1%. - OER c gi nnh mc 14.000VND/USD.
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- OER c iu chnh dn t mc 14.000VND/USD nm 2001 ln 16.100 VND/USD nm 2007. - Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi c iu chnh ln mc +/-0,25% (t 1/7/02 n 31/12/06) v +/-0,5% nm 2007. - OER c iu chnh dn t mc khong 16.100VND/USD vo u nm 2008 ln 16.500 VND/USD (06/08 n 12/08), ln 17.000 VND/USD (01/09 n 11/09), ln 17.940 VND/USD (12/09 n 01/10), ln 18.544 VND/USD (t 02/10 n 08/2010), ln 18.932 VND/USD (t 08/10 n 02/11), v sau ln 20,693 (t 02/2011). - Bin t gi ti cc Ngn hng Thng mi c iu chnh nhiu ln ln mc +/-0,75% (t 23/12/07 n 09/03/08), +/-1% (10/03/08 n 25/06/08), +/-2% (26/05/08 n 05/11/08), +/-3% (06/11/08 n 23/03/09), +/-5% (24/03/09 n 25/11/09), v +/-3% (26/11/09 n 11/02/2011), v sau c thu hep xung +/-1% (t 11/02/2011).
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6,631.2 8,566.7 4,538.6 5,289.9 2,549.3 2,485.9 2,574.0 1,719.1 1,348.7 1,020.9 694.0 890.5 665.1 746.0 777.9 689.6 678.1 585.3 399.1 439.0 462.6 156.6 171.1 274.4 110.0 185.7 157.1 120.3 91.9 124.2 103.7 75.0 47.8 37.4 71.3 64.7 41.3 73.5 11.5 42.2 3,738.1 2,173.9 1,497.1 1,415.9 924.9 904.4 836.5 906.5 672.8 843.4 863.5 764.0 516.9 846.8 576.5 179.2 348.2 376.9 189.4 237.4 211.0 159.2 174.8 139.8 116.3 92.7 75.6 73.5 81.5 85.1 54.3 96.4 15.5 53.3 1,813.8 1,650.2
2,269.2 1,000.9 3,187.3 2,166.0 1,589.4 1,679.6 2,060.6 2,370.0 1,397.4 1,173.1 879.4 906.5 1,275.8 970.6 1,176.3 653.7 930.2 1,869.7 660.6 613.5 456.9 290.9 252.8 427.0 184.9 207.0 164.4 222.0 219.6 102.6 99.1 92.8 116.3 102.1 145.7 71.0 970.4 1,033.2 1,261.0 1,619.6 778.1 787.6 492.0 629.9 757.4 633.3 922.0 496.1 590.7 1,514.4 465.7 440.0 405.1 186.3 152.1 296.8 111.2 116.5 108.2 221.6 245.5 73.1 53.0 59.9 59.1 55.1 77.9 49.3
1,188.9 1,467.6
1,277.3 1,260.9
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Hungary Chile Algeria Romania Argentina Cote d Ivoire Portugal Bulgaria Serbia Croatia Colombia Senegal Morocco Peru Venezuela Sri Lanka Slovenia Lithuania Jordan Kazakhstan Cyprus Kenya Ecuador Estonia Costa Rica Mauritius Iceland Latvia Guatemala Uruguay Paraguay Malta Nicaragua El Salvador Luxembourg Bolivia Panama Azerbaijan Honduras
23.9 38.8 28.2 28.3 16.0 91.4 20.8 17.4 17.4 20.9 12.1 37.2 16.0 15.8 13.0 10.6 8.9 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.6 6.7 1.9 1.2 3.0 4.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.1
30.1 53.6 45.1 44.9 44.7 65.0 26.3 23.7 28.2 31.1 25.6 37.3 19.7 19.7 21.7 15.5 10.8 8.0 6.4 5.1 7.0 18.1 6.0 4.3 3.3 3.4 5.2 3.9 3.1 2.3 2.7 7.2 3.3 1.9 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.1
59.9 55.1 55.1 38.2 51.7 36.6 44.1 47.7 50.5 47.0 41.7 26.0 39.5 26.6 25.9 20.9 12.6 13.3 17.5 12.0 8.8 7.7 4.3 4.9 8.0 5.5 7.1 5.3 2.6 4.1 2.6 1.4 3.3 1.7 0.2 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.4
59.7 80.6 99.3 66.4 96.5 73.1 68.3 83.9 75.4 62.7 65.0 39.8 47.1 44.1 43.3 28.1 18.8 25.4 28.1 23.2 12.0 14.7 8.9 7.1 14.4 9.5 7.7 8.4 4.9 6.2 6.5 2.3 2.3 3.3 0.4 3.5 1.8 3.3 0.8
80.8 126.2 94.2 86.5 76.1 79.4 68.5 49.7 68.8 52.5 60.8 70.0 46.8 42.7 52.8 22.3 13.1 27.2 26.0 22.0 11.3 16.5 18.2 5.4 14.0 21.3 4.7 7.5 13.7 9.0 4.7 2.2 3.7 5.8 2.0 3.0 2.8 5.1 2.2
71.5 51.2 73.1 62.5 55.3 31.3 41.1 29.8 27.6 27.2 41.4 24.7 25.2 24.3 21.3 21.3 11.0 8.2 15.6 15.1 7.0 7.0 7.6 3.3 5.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 5.0 7.2 3.0 1.2 3.5 1.0 3.1 1.6 3.3 0.5 2.4
325.8 405.4 395.0 326.8 340.3 376.9 269.2 252.2 267.8 241.3 246.7 234.9 194.2 173.3 178.1 118.7 75.2 87.1 98.1 81.7 50.6 64.0 51.7 27.0 46.2 46.8 33.3 32.6 30.0 30.1 20.7 15.6 18.1 15.2 5.9 12.9 10.2 10.4 6.1
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
98.3 98.4 98.6 98.7 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
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bng a.3. Danh mc cc nc s dng trong vic tnh NEER and REER
Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Cambodia Canada Czech China Chinese Taipei Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Holland Hong Kong Chinese Hungary India Indonesia Iraq Ireland Italy Japan Malaysia New Zealand Norway Philippines Poland Portugal Republic of Korea Russia Saudi Arabia Kuwait Laos Singapore South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Thailand The Philippines The U.K The U.S Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates
67
68
nhy gi/ t gi T-ration ca nhy xk T-ration ca nhy gi
-3.383 -8.572 1.267 -22.040 -5.745 -2.324 -5.126 -2.592 -8.037 -4.281 -4.241 -7.109 -0.288 -3.456 -7.043 -1.504 -7.105 -3.933 -1.636 -4.163 -6.118
Lnh vc
M t lnh vc
12
Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible offal, fresh, chilled or frozen
17
22
Milk and cream and milk products other than butter or cheese
34
35
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r ntcookd before or durng the s
36
37
42
Rice
44
45
46
47
48
54
Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply preserved; roots, tubers and other
56
57
58
59
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable juices, unfermented and not contai
61
62
Sugar confectionery
Lnh vc
-0.442 -27.599 -5.927 -8.406 -10.004 -11.548 2.098 -1.211 134.821 -3.359 1.353 -478.580 10.545 25.723 -58.871 -66.964 3.934 -19.637 27.801 5.550 21.175 -3.350 -10.104 -2.837 -1.441 -38.014 -3.491 0.231 -4.911 -15.010 -3.084 -8.273 -2.851 -1.350 -7.363 -2.948 -3.194 -8.225 -3.098 -2.966 -3.351 -9.176 1.292 -0.900 2.844 -1.670 0.347 -3.478 0.720 2.591 -4.858 -4.050 0.314 -1.712 2.664 0.668 0.997 -1.941 -6.362 -4.930 -23.934 -3.394 -5.773 -2.271 -7.947 -2.069 -3.409 -1.094 -0.106 -1.083 -3.065 -3.271 -6.830 -39.217 -10.966 -3.494 -4.563 -11.449 -5.400 -1.976 -3.853 -14.067 0.311 -7.753 -7.599 -3.346 -11.591 -8.410 -1.948 -3.093 -6.122 -10.058
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
71
73
74
75
Spices
81
98
111
112
Alcoholic beverages
122
223
Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken, of a kind used for extracting
231
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums,
232
Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste, pairings and scrap of unhardened rubb
247
248
265
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and jute), raw or processed but not
266
269
273
274
278
287
291
292
69
70
nhy xut khu/t gi
-20.029 -3.104 8.627 0.092 3.241 -145.494 -76.139 51.805 29.341 -9.639 45.030 -195.247 27.901 -8.742 -8.805 2.094 68.315 -5.666 10.893 -38.513 -6.275 116.598 -7.819 -1.214 5.419 -15.527 0.147 -1.030 -2.242 -3.090 6.627 -3.514 3.587 -0.981 -1.402 3.939 -1.867 -1.575 -15.452 -6.513 41.434 -4.894 -9.722 1.818 4.198 -0.644 0.575 -5.727 2.298 -1.465 -2.662 0.224 4.153 -1.236 1.524 -5.641 -3.431 2.346 -0.425 -2.822 0.747 -2.839 0.035 -2.603 1.644 -1.989 -2.254 -3.407 -1.876 -4.061 -3.734 -4.405 -7.268 -5.292 4.153 -21.193 -2.223 -1.375 -2.766 0.803 -10.163 0.125 -2.402 -6.697 -3.246 2.902 -6.099 1.467 -3.584 -6.057 1.518 -1.146
Lnh vc
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
333
334
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (other than crude), and product
335
342
344
431
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed; waxes and inedible mixtures or prep
511
513
Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halog
514
Nitrogen-function compounds
515
522
523
524
533
541
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other than medicaments (of group 542)
542
551
553
554
571
573
575
579
Lnh vc
657.790 -68.896 21.685 -19.107 -2.363 -39.017 -99.558 133.224 -10.480 -1.397 -31.127 -48.629 -24.405 -7.290 0.557 1.526 -3.842 -38.346 -11.115 -33.522 -41.191 -138.767 64.859 -3.003 -2.745 -5.567 -2.319 1.117 -1.632 -1.038 -1.356 -3.635 -2.388 -7.090 -0.413 17.957 18.689 -2.458 5.335 -8.716 4.208 -2.468 -2.632 1.012 -2.425 -1.223 -10.129 -4.057 -13.626 -4.112 0.269 0.024 -1.969 -4.447 -1.109 -5.023 -4.248 -3.040 4.051 -1.121 -0.118 -3.492 -1.040 -3.666 0.722 -5.649 -5.862 106.260 2.692 2.712 -7.056 -6.013 -3.467 -0.660 2.517 -17.779 0.791 -4.604 -3.941 -7.704 -4.751 -3.520 0.908 -2.626 -0.325 -2.310 -9.056 -4.275 -6.078 -0.350 3.040 3.669
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
581
582
583
591
592
593
597
Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids for hydraulic transmissions; a
598
611
Leather
612
613
621
Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates, sheets, rods, thread, tubes, etc.
625
Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps and inner tubes for wheels
629
633
Cork manufactures
634
635
641
642
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and articles of paper or paperboard
651
Textile yarn
652
653
Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not including narrow or special fabr
654
Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than cotton or manmade fibers and narr
71
72
nhy xut khu/t gi
-0.027 76.969 5.985 -8.840 -8.358 -10.997 -45.700 -8.799 -14.019 9.345 -2.700 56.714 -13.927 -73.471 38.186 -16.083 1.239 -2.813 -29.338 326.361 -33.684 -14.462 -867.852 -2.776 -2.005 3.036 -2.456 2.054 5.444 -3.119 -6.339 -2.942 0.017 81.506 -2.947 -2.495 -20.417 -1.359 -3.183 -8.176 -1.986 -7.316 -2.969 -16.580 -3.862 2.647 -2.188 1.019 -6.009 -3.385 0.830 -5.147 0.195 -0.961 -3.269 2.314 -2.495 -3.529 -1.430 -5.057 -1.738 -1.325 -3.667 1.552 0.504 4.566 1.833 -1.185 -0.005 -1.277 1.248 0.830 -2.142 -5.573 -2.764 -3.907 -7.728 -1.058 -4.357 -5.276 1.000 -8.653 2.499 0.847 -11.023 -3.725 -2.654 0.013 2.293 -5.057 -2.104 -1.592
Lnh vc
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
655
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular knit fabrics, n.e.s., pile fabri
656
657
658
659
661
Lime, cement, and fabricated construction materials, except glass and clay mater
662
663
664
Glass
665
Glassware
666
Pottery
667
674
676
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and sections, including sheet piling
678
679
Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, fittings for tubes and pipes
681
682
Copper
684
Aluminum
689
691
692
693
Lnh vc
-24.191 -6.608 -16.280 -10.038 -416.348 3364.437 -18.411 2.792 -8.521 2.413 54.234 -1.995 -29.384 1.983 -21.609 72.421 -53.273 1.678 -5.335 84.286 -6.367 -78.545 -11.263 -2.880 -10.744 -1.900 -1.654 -1.806 -2.434 2.890 -9.360 -2.348 -2.014 2.735 -1.555 -7.563 -2.468 -1.272 -3.120 -0.133 -8.865 2.748 -4.236 0.412 -3.145 1.375 4.483 -0.100 -6.378 0.274 -9.767 2.410 -0.749 1.037 -0.522 3.456 -0.263 -6.583 -3.894 -55.522 -3.400 -2.577 -6.792 0.420 -2.230 -2.898 -2.312 -4.295 -9.787 -13.100 -4.068 0.355 -12.384 -3.406 -5.133 -0.379 -15.202 -1.324 -6.163 -5.584 -2.372 -2.978 -1.906 -3.148 1.768 -10.736 -7.783 -4.187 1.404 -1.092 -8.847 -4.510
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
694
Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles, of iron, steel, copper
695
696
Cutlery
697
699
711
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, super-heated water boilers and auxiliar
713
714
Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than steam turbines, internal combustion
716
721
722
723
724
726
727
728
Machinery and equipment specialized for particular industries, and parts thhereo
731
733
Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal carbides or cermets, without rem
735
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with metal working
737
Metalworking machinery (other than machine tools) and parts thereof, n.e.s.
741
742
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a measuring device; liquid elevato
743
Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors and fans; ventilating hoods inco
73
74
nhy xut khu/t gi
-25.380 16.017 -1.568 -12.971 64.682 -3.491 -15.018 -7.413 -13.973 -1959.602 -40.797 0.103 -9.268 -35.893 237.766 21.816 326.717 -1.016 62.343 -2072.504 19.947 -6.839 -0.549 -450.669 -2.710 0.106 -2.400 -3.621 12.596 -7.563 16.210 -1.463 9.175 -337.900 3.555 -0.865 -1.319 -1.868 -1.055 -1.192 -1.644 -0.390 -0.971 -0.881 -3.000 -7.774 -1.219 0.008 -2.498 -2.832 2.503 0.709 1.843 -0.726 3.614 -3.270 2.075 -0.510 -0.039 0.483 2.960 -2.723 -2.979 -2.602 -0.341 2.857 0.942 -2.204 -3.114 -2.048 1.079 -5.041 -6.290 0.483 -1.040 -2.564 -0.793 -3.205 -7.855 -4.549 0.082 -3.483 -6.486 2.401 -2.865 1.719 -1.792 2.940 -3.293 1.974 -0.512 -1.305
Lnh vc
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
744
745
Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical apparatus, and parts thereof, n.e.
746
747
Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, etc.
748
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings and plain shaft bearings; gears
749
751
Office machines
752
Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical reader
759
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with office machine
761
763
764
771
Electric power machinery (other than rotating electric plant of power generating
772
773
774
775
776
778
781
Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of pe
784
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and other motor vehicles, trucks,
785
Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles, motorized and not motorized; invalid
786
Lnh vc
-17.313 11.890 -23.590 34.451 28.356 -6.553 -1.162 -12.645 -6.645 12.558 -4.949 -5.993 -8.330 -10.279 -12.658 1.918 529.430 13.791 9.571 8.090 71.718 20.400 -6.316 -0.258 -1.248 -1.355 -1.517 -3.093 -0.844 -0.869 35.179 0.513 -0.445 -1.252 -13.222 -0.051 -3.046 -0.271 -1.292 -0.810 -2.642 -1.922 -0.326 -6.105 -3.574 1.424 -1.549 -1.585 -2.525 -3.789 -4.239 0.511 2.378 1.079 1.126 0.658 2.451 2.439 -1.212 -0.338 2.709 2.600 2.191 -1.841 -3.547 -1.019 0.652 -3.767 -3.015 -9.819 -0.749 -3.413 1.386 -0.639 -3.681 -1.500 -2.171 -0.386 -0.240 -1.680 -1.697 -1.848 -7.481 -1.181 -1.297 2.283 0.360 -0.308 -1.266 -5.378 -0.061 -7.641
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
791
792
793
811
Prefabricated buildings
812
813
821
831
Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and camera cases, handbags, wallets,
841
Mens or boys coats, jackets, suits, trousers, shirts, underwear etc. Of woven
842
Womens or girls coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers, dresses, skirts, under
843
Mens or boys coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers, trousers, shirts, etc. (ex
844
845
846
848
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of other than textile fabrics; head
851
Footwear
871
872
874
881
882
884
885
75
76
nhy xut khu/t gi
-1.422 -5.176 76.275 -4.364 17.594 -10.797 -11.565 1.985 -8.402 -8.787 7.810 39.308 40.000 -1.875 -3.180 -1.370 -13.527 8.027 -1.072 -1.119 -3.136 0.679 1.489 -2.480 -2.553 0.328 -1.170 -3.859 9.818 6.787 4.273 -0.171 -0.792 6.859 3.103 -2.880 -1.452 -3.815 -0.417 -5.369 -6.189 2.647 -0.180 0.495 -7.189 -2.467 -0.988 -3.117 -9.350 -4.439 -9.946 3.639
Lnh vc
M t lnh vc
nhy gi/ t gi
T-ration ca nhy xk
T-ration ca nhy gi
891
892
Printed matter
893
894
895
896
897
898
Musical instruments, parts and accessories thereof; records, tapes and other sou
899
931
950
Coin, including gold coin; proof and presentation sets and current coin
971
984
Estimate of import items valued under $251 and of other low valued items nonexem
Lnh vc
M t
12
Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible offal, fresh, chilled or frozen (
17
22
Milk and cream and milk products other than butter or cheese
34
35
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r ntcookd before or durng the s
36
37
42
Rice
44
45
46
47
48
54
Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply preserved; roots, tubers and other
56
57
58
59
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable juices, unfermented and not contai
61
77
78
Thi k 1 0.095 0.149 -0.140 -0.085 -0.187 -0.082 -0.031 -0.050 0.039 0.064 -0.042 0.021 -0.214 -0.247 0.046 0.191 -0.196 -0.002 -0.002 0.317 0.389 -0.428 0.187 -0.499 -0.587 0.228 0.339 -0.401 0.002 0.134 -0.171 0.682 -0.715 0.019 -0.190 0.136 -0.101 0.055 0.096 -0.036 0.319 -0.495 0.158 0.284 -0.848 -1.161 0.602 0.307 -0.731 -0.117 0.243 -0.239 0.941 -0.954 -0.758 -1.653 -0.571 -0.941 -0.139 -0.144 -0.159 -0.160 -0.187 -0.081 -1.298 -2.676 0.073 0.023 0.586 -0.442 0.314 0.435 -1.211 -2.078 1.034 0.104 -0.946 -0.290 0.250 -1.678 1.503 -1.134 0.549 0.909 1.223 0.262 0.631 0.988 Thi k 2 Thi k 3 Thi k 4
Lnh vc
M t
62
Sugar confectionery
71
73
74
75
Spices
81
98
111
112
Alcoholic beverages
122
223
Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken, of a kind used for extracting
231
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums,
232
Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste, pairings and scrap of unhardened rubber
247
248
265
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and jute), raw or processed but not
266
269
273
274
278
287
Lnh vc -0.045 -0.007 0.077 -0.082 -0.089 -0.011 -0.084 -0.327 0.241 0.213 0.021 -0.174 -0.044 -0.379 0.330 -0.179 -0.115 -0.034 -0.034 0.046 -0.047 0.210 0.129 -0.355 -0.217 -0.882 0.743 -0.271 -0.096 0.084 -0.188 0.163 0.044 0.608 0.525 0.631 -0.945 -0.118 -0.220 -1.911 0.825 1.005 0.376 -0.533 -0.690 -1.150 1.313 -0.424 0.046 0.370 -0.353 0.186 0.205 1.160 -0.023 -0.106 -0.186 -0.328 -0.191 -0.378 0.130 0.217 0.304 -0.573 -0.604 -0.276 -0.376 -2.827 1.183 1.661 0.704 -0.871 -1.334 -1.244 2.057 -0.799 0.346 1.018 -0.533 0.209 0.597 1.827 -0.140 -0.146 -0.180 -0.007 0.121 0.173
M t
Thi k 1
Thi k 2
Thi k 3
Thi k 4
291
292
333
334
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (other than crude), and product
335
342
344
431
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed; waxes and inedible mixtures or prep
511
513
Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halog
514
Nitrogen-function compounds
515
522
523
524
533
541
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other than medicaments (of group 542)
542
551
553
554
571
79
80
Thi k 1 0.001 0.085 -0.114 0.015 0.001 0.276 0.056 -0.316 -0.193 -0.482 0.211 0.031 0.099 0.319 0.252 -0.094 0.046 0.109 -0.291 0.175 0.008 -0.152 0.071 0.280 1.186 0.734 -0.161 0.207 0.663 -0.647 0.370 -0.096 -0.434 0.543 -0.754 -0.307 -0.769 0.304 0.389 -1.362 -0.057 -0.883 0.917 0.124 0.467 3.001 1.385 -0.361 0.230 1.201 -1.061 0.608 -0.404 -0.651 -0.006 -0.532 0.069 0.090 -0.023 0.015 -0.402 -1.028 -1.846 0.138 0.209 -1.635 0.370 -2.094 0.644 -0.954 1.445 0.094 0.721 5.497 2.192 -0.649 0.246 1.869 -1.568 0.976 -0.808 -0.814 0.373 0.407 0.610 -0.024 -0.053 -0.089 Thi k 2 Thi k 3 Thi k 4
Lnh vc
M t
573
575
579
581
582
583
591
592
593
597
Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids for hydraulic transmissions; a
598
611
Leather
612
613
621
Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates, sheets, rods, thread, tubes, etc.
625
Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps and inner tubes for wheels
629
633
Cork manufactures
634
635
641
642
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and articles of paper or paperboard
Lnh vc 0.043 -0.104 -0.081 -0.090 -0.048 -0.113 0.107 0.011 0.197 0.003 0.104 -0.127 0.071 0.046 0.155 -0.052 -0.126 0.251 -0.064 0.105 0.353 0.417 0.271 -0.233 0.152 0.019 0.506 -0.217 -0.130 0.595 -0.209 0.306 1.225 0.977 -0.011 0.497 -0.050 0.331 0.622 -0.038 0.693 -0.067 0.435 -0.458 0.165 -0.108 0.751 -0.570 0.030 1.026 -0.426 0.438 2.489 1.327 -0.150 -0.067 -0.072 -0.178 -0.177 -0.227 -0.150 -0.152 -0.167 -0.224 -0.228 0.106 1.014 0.116 0.758 -0.155 0.800 -0.845 0.204 -0.338 0.911 -0.968 0.294 1.222 -0.664 0.506 4.421 1.576 0.005 0.028 0.002 0.053 -0.045 -0.116
M t
Thi k 1
Thi k 2
Thi k 3
Thi k 4
651
Textile yarn
652
653
Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not including narrow or special fabr
654
Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than cotton or manmade fibers and narr
655
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular knit fabrics, n.e.s., pile fabri
656
657
658
659
661
Lime, cement, and fabricated construction materials, except glass and clay mater
662
663
664
Glass
665
Glassware
666
Pottery
667
674
676
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and sections, including sheet piling
678
679
Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, fittings for tubes and pipes
681
682
Copper
81
82
Thi k 1 0.016 0.178 0.083 -0.088 -0.231 -0.015 0.067 0.099 0.151 -0.026 -0.154 0.071 -0.027 0.018 0.132 -0.031 -0.014 -0.067 -0.066 0.059 -0.058 -0.040 -0.403 -0.085 0.169 0.045 0.401 -0.044 -0.151 0.239 -0.175 0.251 -0.297 -0.174 0.023 0.514 0.292 0.305 0.530 0.458 0.835 0.034 -0.904 -0.393 0.135 0.031 0.800 0.007 -0.311 0.710 -0.230 0.498 -0.685 -0.449 -0.083 -0.044 -0.618 -1.315 -0.240 -0.410 0.291 0.522 0.801 -0.562 -2.237 0.097 0.870 0.489 1.103 -0.077 -1.466 -1.201 -0.052 -0.025 1.078 0.228 -0.369 1.584 -0.246 0.777 -1.280 -0.806 0.225 0.254 0.227 -0.015 -0.283 -0.700 Thi k 2 Thi k 3 Thi k 4
Lnh vc
M t
684
Aluminum
689
691
692
693
694
Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles, of iron, steel, copper
695
696
Cutlery
697
699
711
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, super-heated water boilers and auxiliar
713
714
Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than steam turbines, internal combustion
716
721
722
723
724
726
727
728
Machinery and equipment specialized for particular industries, and parts thhereo
731
Lnh vc 0.036 0.019 -0.087 -0.109 0.113 0.022 0.154 0.070 -0.251 0.012 0.005 -0.007 0.184 0.038 -0.028 0.392 0.085 0.040 -0.034 0.010 -0.180 0.299 0.182 0.482 0.071 0.049 1.088 0.106 0.273 -0.050 0.001 -0.391 0.387 0.140 0.013 -0.646 0.108 0.405 0.599 0.233 -1.196 0.069 0.384 0.465 0.654 0.155 0.179 2.704 0.182 0.484 0.002 -0.172 -0.696 0.341 -0.029 -0.018 0.438 0.953 -0.135 -0.167 -0.316 -0.618 -0.991 -0.128 1.472 0.145 1.051 0.390 -1.613 0.211 0.699 0.665 0.845 0.203 0.298 3.746 0.247 0.673 0.070 -0.297 -1.094 0.086 0.027 0.088 0.178 0.198 0.418 0.788
M t
Thi k 1
Thi k 2
Thi k 3
Thi k 4
733
Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal carbides or cermets, without rem
735
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with metal working
737
Metalworking machinery (other than machine tools) and parts thereof, n.e.s.
741
742
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a measuring device; liquid elevato
743
Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors and fans; ventilating hoods inco
744
745
Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical apparatus, and parts thereof, n.e.
746
747
Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, etc.
748
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings and plain shaft bearings; gears
749
751
Office machines
752
Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical reader
759
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with office machine
761
763
764
771
Electric power machinery (other than rotating electric plant of power generating
772
773
774
83
84
Thi k 1 -0.154 -0.016 0.024 0.187 0.010 -0.177 -0.126 0.576 -0.216 -0.282 -0.023 0.029 0.034 0.152 -0.109 0.165 0.178 0.093 0.040 0.022 -0.261 0.067 0.091 0.238 0.514 -0.125 0.353 0.447 0.246 0.218 0.206 -0.627 0.268 -0.042 -0.605 -0.486 1.355 -0.241 -0.490 2.349 -0.770 -0.723 -0.248 0.170 0.553 0.797 -0.203 0.567 0.637 0.263 0.372 0.375 -0.971 0.435 -0.384 -0.567 0.054 0.075 0.466 0.857 0.280 0.504 0.774 1.279 0.157 -0.733 -0.919 3.830 -1.134 -1.013 -0.317 0.231 0.920 1.124 -0.300 0.879 0.764 0.229 0.549 0.552 -1.293 0.611 -0.216 -0.537 -0.954 -0.366 -0.764 -1.362 Thi k 2 Thi k 3 Thi k 4
Lnh vc
M t
775
776
778
781
Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of pe
784
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and other motor vehicles, trucks,
785
Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles, motorized and not motorized; invalid
786
791
792
793
811
Prefabricated buildings
812
813
821
831
Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and camera cases, handbags, wallets,
841
Mens or boys coats, jackets, suits, trousers, shirts, underwear etc. Of woven
842
Womens or girls coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers, dresses, skirts, under
843
Mens or boys coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers, trousers, shirts, etc. (ex
844
845
846
848
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of other than textile fabrics; head
Lnh vc 0.021 -0.365 0.069 -0.126 0.115 0.183 -0.245 -0.037 -0.032 0.001 0.107 -0.084 -0.103 -0.039 0.033 0.090 0.081 -0.204 -0.108 0.175 -0.006 0.359 -0.095 -0.111 -0.164 0.135 0.289 0.259 -0.493 -0.104 0.716 0.096 -0.097 -0.104 -0.094 -0.514 -0.708 -0.117 -0.238 -0.042 0.525 0.009 0.003 -0.208 0.286 0.568 0.543 -0.843 -0.294 1.238 0.201 0.293 0.181 0.216 0.691 -0.232 -0.265 0.047 -0.031 -0.116 -0.081 1.103 0.102 -0.837 -0.047 -0.457 0.189 0.661 0.171 0.074 -0.288 0.529 0.908 0.875 -1.166 -0.432 1.836 0.353 -1.178 -2.231 -3.274 0.082 -0.053 -0.225
M t
Thi k 1
Thi k 2
Thi k 3
Thi k 4
851
Footwear
871
872
874
881
882
884
885
891
892
Printed matter
893
894
895
896
897
898
Musical instruments, parts and accessories thereof; records, tapes and other sou
899
931
950
Coin, including gold coin; proof and presentation sets and current coin
971
984
Estimate of import items valued under $251 and of other low valued items nonexem
85
86
ftest_yx 2.062 3.098 0.806 2.472 1.564 6.504 1.301 1.131 1.771 1.374 2.423 2.551 11.204 1.169 3.160 3.435 2.099 2.109 2.483 6.767 4.398 2.370 0.258 0.054 0.042 0.000 0.350 0.016 0.012 0.085 0.088 0.052 0.000 0.004 0.056 0.142 0.370 0.289 0.000 5.486 2.043 0.590 0.432 4.257 0.861 1.019 4.388 0.280 0.825 4.394 0.152 1.463 2.030 4.236 1.570 1.528 0.193 2.363 0.049 0.418 0.573 1.520 0.021 2.316 0.071 0.225 0.741 0.132 0.001 0.144 0.560 0.652 0.046 0.499 0.319 0.005 0.600 0.369 0.006 0.859 0.234 0.101 0.005 0.199 0.231 0.089 0.365 0.549 Prob_YX ftest_xy Prob_XY
Sector
Descript
12
Meat, other than of bovine animals, and edible offal, fresh, chilled or frozen
17
22
Milk and cream and milk products other than butter or cheese
34
35
Fish, dried, sltd r in brine; smkd fish (whethr r nt cookd before or durng the s
36
37
42
Rice
44
45
46
47
48
54
Vegetables, fresh, chilled, frozen or simply preserved; roots, tubers and other
56
57
58
59
Fruit juices (incl. Grape must) and vegetable juices, unfermented and not contai
61
62
Sugar confectionery
71
Sector 3.415 1.842 2.731 1.823 1.782 1.289 2.332 4.375 3.436 2.077 3.042 1.306 2.748 2.679 6.602 3.377 2.798 1.281 3.061 4.802 2.742 2.456 0.090 0.020 0.288 0.032 0.037 0.000 0.013 0.028 0.300 0.020 0.002 0.035 0.051 0.014 0.004 0.058 0.293 4.006 2.935 3.313 5.447 1.149 0.143 0.214 0.701 2.876 9.272 0.748 1.827 2.479 0.503 1.435 1.903 1.568 0.141 2.961 0.129 1.336 0.034 1.086 0.126 0.375 0.544 0.381 0.255 0.046 0.052 0.095 0.018 0.001 0.344 0.868 0.886 0.558 0.040 0.000 0.531 0.184 0.065 0.683 0.244 0.127 0.208 0.013 1.131 0.368
Descript
ftest_yx
Prob_YX
ftest_xy
Prob_XY
73
74
75
Spices
81
98
111
112
Alcoholic beverages
122
223
Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, whole or broken, of a kind used for extracting
231
Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums,
232
Synthetic rubber; reclaimed rubber; waste, pairings and scrap of unhardened rubb
247
248
265
Vegetable textile fibers (other than cotton and jute), raw or processed but not
266
269
273
274
278
287
291
292
87
88
ftest_yx 1.246 5.742 1.987 1.058 3.256 2.322 1.714 2.087 2.966 4.892 4.016 1.820 1.034 2.536 2.261 2.571 1.729 2.495 2.024 3.967 2.390 1.725 0.002 0.005 0.134 0.424 0.046 0.069 0.044 0.150 0.048 0.098 0.007 0.058 0.151 0.026 0.091 0.154 0.059 1.779 0.716 0.952 1.579 2.866 0.127 2.267 0.182 3.272 3.196 9.359 5.408 2.990 5.088 2.348 3.176 0.000 0.015 0.234 0.410 0.079 0.103 1.249 0.001 1.924 0.118 0.308 0.925 0.872 0.190 0.495 0.464 0.196 0.040 0.724 0.085 0.672 0.024 0.027 0.000 0.025 0.034 0.003 0.063 0.022 0.985 0.313 0.148 0.703 Prob_YX ftest_xy Prob_XY
Sector
Descript
333
334
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (other than crude), and product
335
342
344
431
Animal or vegetable fats and oils processed; waxes and inedible mixtures or prep
511
513
Carboxylic acids and anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halog
514
Nitrogen-function compounds
515
522
523
524
533
541
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other than medicaments (of group 542)
542
551
553
554
571
573
575
Sector 1.617 2.611 2.047 2.125 2.424 2.326 3.206 5.822 2.605 3.455 1.506 2.800 1.238 2.296 3.677 2.921 0.883 2.110 1.433 1.803 2.582 2.865 0.013 0.211 0.032 0.316 0.065 0.009 0.025 0.519 0.083 0.236 0.138 0.041 0.028 0.038 0.001 0.017 0.061 0.382 1.321 1.222 2.237 0.437 7.957 0.928 6.269 5.815 1.771 1.405 0.083 0.057 0.034 7.991 5.722 1.470 0.052 0.050 0.081 0.935 0.098 3.026 0.043 2.828 0.032 0.024 0.340 0.951 0.767 0.285 0.329 0.143 0.819 0.007 0.479 0.017 0.001 0.153 0.259 0.775 0.813 0.855 0.000 0.007 0.236 0.180 0.967 0.390
Descript
ftest_yx
Prob_YX
ftest_xy
Prob_XY
579
581
582
583
591
592
593
597
Prepared additives for mineral oils etc.; liquids for hydraulic transmissions; a
598
611
Leather
612
613
621
Materials of rubber, including pastes, plates, sheets, rods, thread, tubes, etc.
625
Rubber tires, interchangeable tire treads, tire flaps and inner tubes for wheels
629
633
Cork manufactures
634
635
641
642
Paper and paperboard, cut to size or shape, and articles of paper or paperboard
651
Textile yarn
652
89
90
ftest_yx 3.982 2.636 1.610 6.455 3.105 4.312 3.896 2.465 5.724 3.926 3.285 2.426 4.727 1.838 1.829 0.790 3.319 1.705 3.031 1.354 1.651 1.550 0.007 0.014 0.050 0.002 0.129 0.128 0.585 0.013 0.160 0.022 0.266 0.169 0.200 0.001 0.051 0.007 0.004 3.858 2.741 1.449 1.101 1.806 0.418 1.669 3.645 0.832 1.284 0.070 0.232 2.836 1.870 6.724 0.063 6.352 0.020 1.022 0.000 1.437 0.180 0.270 0.037 2.009 0.149 0.606 0.242 0.412 0.012 0.040 0.242 0.391 0.145 0.661 0.204 0.016 0.486 0.264 0.793 0.633 0.042 0.142 0.013 0.803 0.002 0.007 1.517 0.215 Prob_YX ftest_xy Prob_XY
Sector
Descript
653
Woven fabrics of manmade textile materials (not including narrow or special fabr
654
Woven fabrics of textile materials, other than cotton or manmade fibers and narr
655
Knitted or crocheted fabrics (including tubular knit fabrics, n.e.s., pile fabri
656
657
658
659
661
Lime, cement, and fabricated construction materials, except glass and clay mater
662
663
664
Glass
665
Glassware
666
Pottery
667
674
676
Iron and steel bars, rods, angles, shapes and sections, including sheet piling
678
679
Iron and steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles, fittings for tubes and pipes
681
682
Copper
684
Aluminum
689
Sector 10.998 3.663 2.638 2.332 4.225 2.843 1.056 1.536 2.216 6.307 2.378 2.333 1.879 7.830 1.487 1.533 2.471 2.240 1.755 3.155 1.991 3.127 0.000 0.060 0.058 0.118 0.000 0.222 0.203 0.047 0.067 0.144 0.018 0.100 0.020 0.075 0.202 0.411 0.028 1.030 4.817 0.181 2.366 4.081 5.899 0.467 0.276 3.130 1.362 1.232 0.051 4.947 1.937 1.623 0.044 2.580 0.005 1.770 0.062 2.721 0.039 1.969 0.010 3.388 0.017 0.125 0.048 0.148 0.392 0.034 0.673 0.066 0.006 0.001 0.499 0.602 0.023 0.271 0.274 0.822 0.032 0.172 0.194 0.834 0.049 0.000 1.722 0.164
Descript
ftest_yx
Prob_YX
ftest_xy
Prob_XY
691
692
693
694
Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles, of iron, steel, copper
695
696
Cutlery
697
699
711
Steam or other vapor generating boilers, super-heated water boilers and auxiliar
713
714
Engines and motors, nonelectric (other than steam turbines, internal combustion
716
721
722
723
724
726
727
728
Machinery and equipment specialized for particular industries, and parts thhereo
731
733
Machine tools for working metal, sintered metal carbides or cermets, without rem
735
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with metal working
91
92
ftest_yx 4.842 3.706 2.561 2.022 4.973 3.802 2.590 6.493 4.921 3.878 3.499 0.699 1.889 2.669 6.001 1.789 2.169 2.744 1.105 1.813 1.037 2.513 0.007 0.012 0.653 0.121 0.038 0.001 0.138 0.077 0.033 0.387 0.139 0.422 0.047 0.002 0.000 0.039 0.007 2.995 0.017 1.742 0.299 0.897 2.217 5.503 2.389 4.652 9.072 2.193 0.551 2.031 2.335 10.222 0.118 1.228 0.002 2.079 0.095 0.895 0.041 0.292 0.007 8.651 0.005 0.592 0.350 0.108 0.045 0.896 0.154 0.876 0.497 0.082 0.008 0.073 0.003 0.000 0.126 0.581 0.129 0.069 0.000 0.889 0.320 0.002 0.942 0.470 Prob_YX ftest_xy Prob_XY
Sector
Descript
737
Metalworking machinery (other than machine tools) and parts thereof, n.e.s.
741
742
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a measuring device; liquid elevato
743
Pumps (not for liquids), air or gas compressors and fans; ventilating hoods inco
744
745
Nonelectrical machinery, tools and mechanical apparatus, and parts thereof, n.e.
746
747
Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, etc.
748
Transmission shafts and cranks; bearing housings and plain shaft bearings; gears
749
751
Office machines
752
Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical reader
759
Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with office machine
761
763
764
771
Electric power machinery (other than rotating electric plant of power generating
772
773
774
775
776
Sector 0.934 6.224 2.640 4.431 1.870 2.035 2.578 4.825 1.756 4.217 1.109 5.385 1.542 5.166 2.036 2.022 2.464 2.887 2.521 3.674 0.005 0.381 0.001 0.203 0.002 0.093 0.095 0.053 0.028 0.044 0.009 0.148 0.002 0.043 0.093 0.657 2.593 3.006 4.152 2.009 0.171 2.470 1.168 4.823 3.037 0.294 6.819 8.828 0.029 2.280 0.124 2.260 0.004 0.772 0.038 0.538 0.000 3.133 0.029 0.659 0.600 0.086 0.423 0.056 0.025 0.009 0.104 0.681 0.066 0.337 0.002 0.089 0.591 0.000 0.000 0.867 0.084 0.486 0.503 0.482
Descript
ftest_yx
Prob_YX
ftest_xy
Prob_XY
778
781
Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of pe
784
Parts and accessories for tractors, motor cars and other motor vehicles, trucks,
785
Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles, motorized and not motorized; invalid
786
791
792
793
811
Prefabricated buildings
812
813
821
831
Trunks, suitcases, vanity cases, binocular and camera cases, handbags, wallets,
841
Mens or boys coats, jackets, suits, trousers, shirts, underwear etc. Of woven
842
Womens or girls coats, capes, jackets, suits, trousers, dresses, skirts, under
843
Mens or boys coats, capes, jackets, suits, blazers, trousers, shirts, etc. (ex
844
845
846
848
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories of other than textile fabrics; head
93
Cc tc gi xin by t li cm n i vi ng V Vit Ngon, Nguyn Tr Dng, T Trung Thnh, Rodney Schmidt, V Thnh T Anh, V Tr Thnh, L Hi Ha v b L Th Ngc Lin v nhng kin ng gp v s ng h ca h. Nhng quan im l ca ring cc tc gi v tc gi xin chu trch nhim i vi cc sai st trong bi.
94
Bin tp v sa bn in
In cun kh 16 x 24 ti cng ty
95