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P(AB) P(A)P(B)
2
P(B/ A)
4
XC SUT C IU KIN
1. nh ngha: Gi A, B l hai bin c ca cng mt php th.
Xc sut c iu kin ca bin c B vi iu kin bin c A xy ra, k hiu l P(B/A) vi
P(A) > 0 l
( ) P AB
P(B/ A)
P(A)
*Tnh cht
P(B/ A) 1 P(B/ A)
A, B c lp
* Cng thc Bernoulli:
nh ngha: Dy php th Bernoulli l dy n php th tha mn 3 iu kin sau y:
+ Cc php th ca dy c lp vi nhau. Ngha l, kt qu ca php th sau khng ph
thuc vo cc php th trc ;
+ Trong mi php th ch c hai bin c A hoc
A
xy ra;
+ Xc sut bin c A xy ra trong mi php th ca dy l nh nhau v P(A) = p vi
0 p 1 < <
nn P(A) 1 p q
Cng thc: Xc sut trong n php th, bin c A xy ra k ln vi xc sut mi ln A
xy ra l p. c k hiu l
k k n k
n n
P (k) C p q (k 0; n)
1 2 n
n
1 2
n
A A A ...A
P(A) P(A ).P(A )...P(A )
5 5 5 5
...
6 6 6 6
>
_
,
1 4 2 4 3
2
P(A)
20
Li gii
Gi A
i
l bin c th sinh thi u ln th i (i = 1;2;3)
Gi B l bin c th sinh thi u.
Ta c: 1 1 2
1 2 3
B A (A A ) (A A A )
Suy ra: 1 1 2
1 2 3
P(B) P(A ) P(A A ) P(A A A ) + +
Trong :
1
1 1 1
2 2
1 2 1 2 1 1 2
3 3
P(A ) 0, 9
P(A A ) P(A ).P(A / A ) 0,1.0, 7
P(A A A ) P(A ).P(A / A ).P(A / A A ) 0,1.0, 3.0, 3
'
Vy:
P(B) 0, 9 0,1.0, 7 0,1.0, 3.0, 3 0, 979 + +
2.3 V d 3: Trong hp c 20 np khoen bia Tiger, trong c 2 np ghi Chc mng bn
trng thng xe FORD. Bn c chn ln rt thm ln lt hai np khoen, tnh xc sut c
hai np u trng thng.
Li gii :
Gi A l bin c np khoen u trng thng.
B l bin c np khoen th hai trng thng.
C l bin c c 2 np u trng thng.
Khi bn rt thm ln u th trong hp c 20 np trong c 2 np trng.
Khi bin c A xy ra th cn li 19 np trong c 1 np trng thng.
Do : ( )
1
P B/ A
19
+
'
Vy xc sut cn tm l
47
90
2.6 V d 6:Trong hp c 3 bi trng v 7 bi ,ly ln lt mi ln mt vin v khng tr
li,hy tnh:
a)Xc sut vin bi ly ln th hai l mu nu bit rng vin bi ly ln th nht l
mu .
b)Xc sut vin bi ly ln th hai l mu nu bit rng vin bi ly ln th nht l mu
trng.
Li gii.
a)Nu vin bi ly ln th nht l mu th trong hp cn li 9 vin:trong c 3 bi trng v 6
bi .
Vy xc sut cn tnh l
6 2
9 3