Tham Dinh Du An Dau Tu

THM NH D N U T
Bi c1 B qua nhng khi nim hn lm v nhng nh ngha cha ng bit bao ngn t hoa m, gy tranh ci v tn km nhiu giy mc, bn cht ch thc ca d n u t suy cho cng ch n gin l vic b ra nhng ng tin ngy hm nay k vng s thu c chng v trong tng lai. Dng tin chi ra hm nay l thc nhng dng tin s thu v trong tng lai mi ch l d on, hy cn l nhng con s v hn, i khi c gt gia rt p, nm yn lnh trn nhng trang giy trng m thi. Chnh v ci ngy mai cha bit y m ai cng t ra c l khi ngh v d n. Nhng tin t c tnh thi gian. Ti, bn, cc nh t bn v c B Ngoi chn qu na, ai cng mun nhn c ng tin chc chn ngy hm nay (ng tin an ton) hn l nhng ng tin khng chc chn (ng tin ri ro) vo nm sau. Mt khc, cc ngun lc lun hn hp ch khng phi l v tn. Thm nh, la chn v quyt nh u t vo mt d n cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi u t vo mt d n khc 2. C nh vy, d n khng c g l gh gm c m tri li, n cha ng nhng iu rt gn gi vi suy ngh t nhin ca tt c mi ngi. Nhng cu hi tht n gin v bnh thng nh vy s tr thnh ch dn dt cho cc tho lun ca chng ny. Do phm vi ca ch quyn sch, mt s ni dung su hn v thm nh d n s khng c dp cp n 3. Chng ny ch nhm
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Trch chng 12, sch: K ton qun tr (2003), NXB i hc Quc gia Tp. HCM, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th hai, cng tc gi. Khoa hc kinh t suy n cng l khoa hc v s khan him cc ngun lc. Qu vy, nu ngun lc l v tn th s khng cn kinh t hc v tt nhin khng cn phi thm nh d n v c mn hc k ton qun tr ny, cng khng cn na.
Thm nh d n u t
tp trung tho lun nhng vn k thut: tnh thi gian ca tin t; k thut chit khu dng tin; h thng cc ch tiu nh gi d n, x l lm pht, k thut phn tch ri ro ca d n. I. V sao tin t c tnh thi gian Mt ng tin c gi tr khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. Khong cch thi gian cng di v c hi sinh li cng cao th s khc bit trong gi tr gia hai thi im ca n cng ln. Qu vy, nu bn cho bn thn ca mnh mn s tin 50 ngn ng vo bui sng, n bui tra th nhn li 4. Lc y, 50 ngn l nh nhau, hay ni cch khc, bn khng thy c s khc bit no v gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Nhng nu bn mua c phiu ca Cng ty VaBiCo cch y hai nm vi gi 40 ngn ng mt c phiu, tt nhin mc ch mua (u t) l kim li, th li l cu chuyn khc. Sau khi mua, gi c phiu c lc tng cao hn 40 ngn, bn bo hy ch ln na kim li nhiu hn; c lc gi rt xung thp hn 40 ngn, bn hy vng n s ln tr li. Hm nay trn th trng gi ng 40 ngn, v cn tin nn bn mang i bn. Bn tng b ra 40 ngn ng cch y hai nm, by gi thu li cng ng 40 ngn ng. Lc ny, bn c ni l hu vn? Cu tr li chn hn l khng. V nh vy, bn tha nhn rng cng s tin 40 ngn ng, gi tr ca chng s khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. C t nht l ba l do sau y c th dng gii thch v tnh thi gian ca tin t 5.
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C th tham kho cc sch (cng tc gi): Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip (2000)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th su; Phn tch qun tr ti chnh (2002)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th ba. gi l bn thn m, ai n ly li. Time value of money
Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH
5/18/2009
Thm nh d n u t
1.1 Chi ph c hi ca tin ng tin lun c c hi sinh li, n c th dng u t v c li ngay lp tc. Ni theo cch hn lm l lun c chi ph c hi cho vic s dng tin 6. Khi bn u t vo c phiu cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi sinh li t vic u t mua t 7. Nu li sut tin gi ngn hng l 10% nm, vic u t c phiu VaBiCo trn y ti thiu cng lm bn mt i c hi kim c s tin li l 8 ngn (= 40 ngn 20%) nu bn khim tn, hoc c th ni l nht gan, chp nhn hng mt li sut thp nht bng cch gi tit kim ngn hng (cha tnh n li kp 8). Dng tin u t vo d n l vic hy sinh li ch ngy hm nay k vng vo nhng li ch ln hn ngy mai. Ngay c khi bn s dng tin cho tiu dng cng vy. Mt s tiu dng hin ti s em li cho bn tha dng sm hn v cao hn l s ch i dnh n tng lai! V nu bn chu nhn thm chic xe Spacy hm nay u t kim li v 3 nm sau chng l no cng ch l chic Spacy! 9 Bn phi c thng v s tr hon tiu dng ny, phn thng l li sut (hoc sut chit khu). S nghin cu phn k thut chit khu dng tin. 1.2 Tnh lm pht T ngy c in ko v nng thn, Ngoi mun mua mt my bm nc ti vn rau ca Ngoi. Vn rau tng mt thi nui con by gi nui chu ang hc i hc nm th ba ngnh k ton mt trng i hc danh gi Si Gn. Ngoi c 4 triu, gi my bm
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Chi ph c hi (opportunity cost) c dp cp Chng 2 Phn loi chi ph. Xt bn cht kinh t, kinh doanh t ai v mua bn chng khon l hon ton ging nhau. Nhng ngi trung gian hng hu hng n thun trn th trng chng khon c gi bng ci tn rt p l "cc nh mi gii chng khon" (brokers), va trung gian va tham gia mua bn c gi l "cc nh u t chng khon" (dealers), nhng sao nhng vai tr nh vy trong lnh vc a c th gi l "c" v "k u c"? Ni theo ngn ng bnh dn l: "li m li con". Ni theo cch bnh dn l: sng trc kh sau hoc l kh trc sng sau. trn i, khng c g l sng trc ri sng sau c !
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Thm nh d n u t
4,4 triu nn Ngoi khng tin. a chu cng "hin k" gi ngn hng mt nm sau tin mua my (li sut 10% nm). Khi Ngoi cm c 4,4 triu trong tay th gi my bm, c ngun gc nhp ngoi by gi tng hn 5 triu. Mt ln na Ngoi li khng tin. Ngoi li tip tc on lng ti tng gnh nc nh Ngoi tng quen chu ng sut mt i c cc, nhc nhn 10. an i, a chu "tr thc" ni rng d sao Ngoi cng li c 0,4 triu (?). Khng. Ngoi mt do phi ng mt th thu lm pht 11 m Ngoi no c bit bao gi. 1.3 Tnh ri ro Ai m bit c ngy sau ri s ra sao? 12 Mt ng tin s nhn c trong tng lai chc chn l khng c g chc chn c. Nhng ri ro ca thin tai hay chin tranh, s thay i th ch chnh sch hay nhng th lc d di ca th trng cnh tranh, trng thi nn kinh t tng trng hay suy thoi, ch trng chnh ph tip tc bo h hay m ra hi nhp, bnh yn hay khng hong v v vn nhng th rt kh nh lng khc, lun rnh rp. B ra ng vn trong hon cnh , ngi ta cn c mt phn thng b p 13. Vn khng phi l s ri ro, s th khng lm, m l chp nhn v nh i ri ro nh th no. Ri ro cng cao th phn thng i hi phi cng ln. Ngc li cng hon ton ng nh vy, li
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Ngoi khng c dp nng cao "nng sut lao ng nng nghip", nn kinh t b qua c hi "kch cu" v gp phn "chuyn i c cu kinh t". D tnh nu c my bm, Ngoi s trng thm mt "cao" (n v o ca mt lung t khong 400 m2 ngoi thnh pha Ty TP. HCM) rau na v s mua mt tivi mu 14 inch xem ci lng, nhng c m bnh d khng thnh. Inflation tax. Mt nh lnh o phng Ty no tng ni rng, thu lm pht l mt loi thu tn bo nht trong lch s nhn loi. Khi bn cm trong tay 1 triu ng m gi tr ca n nh 0,5 triu th bn "ng" thu lm pht ht mt na ri. chng li s lm pht, ngi ta khng ct tin "di gi" hay treo trn "ngn da" m phi a vo u t bng cch mua tri phiu, c phiu, ti thiu l gi tit kim. Theo cch , nn kinh t s c vn hot ng. Mt khi khng c g mua, ngi ta mua t th cng khng c g l c. Que sera sera Risk premium: ph thng ri ro.
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Thm nh d n u t
nhun cng nhiu th ri ro cng lm (high return, high risk) tr thnh bi hc s ng u tin cho mi kha hc v qun tr kinh doanh. C ngi mua bt ng sn vi hy vng t li sut 30% nm, trong khi c ngi chp nhn gi tit kim ngn hng hng li sut 6% nm. C ngi u t chng khon cng ty li sut 20% nm th cng c ngi chn mua tri phiu chnh ph li sut 7% nm. Khng c g l c. l s sng phng ca th trng. C hi l nh nhau i vi tt c mi ngi 14. II. K thut chit khu dng tin C th ni rng chit khu dng tin l ci trc ca nn ti chnh hin i. N tr thnh mt kin thc cn bn khng ch dnh ring cho cc nh qun tr ti chnh m cn l ca bt k ai, bt k lnh vc hot ng no. Mt ch bn hng ch Bnh Ty cng tha bit rng cho vay tin vi mt li sut rt thp khi ch t bt k hp ng vi mt cng ty bo him nhn th. Trong mc ny, chng ta s nghin cu cc phng php chit khu dng tin cng nhng ng dng rt i thc ca chng. 2.1 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng Nu bn gi ngn hng 100 (n v tin), li sut 10% nm, mt nm sau bn s c: 110 = 100 + 100 10% = 100 (1 + 10%) Bn tip tc gi s tin 110 ngn hng, mt nm sau na bn s nhn c: 121 = 110 + 110 10% = 110 (1 + 10%) Thay 110 = 100 (1 + 10%), ta c th vit:
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Tr nhng k c c thng tin ni b. T nh cc v lnh o ca mt s tp on va ph sn trong thi gian gn y (M) hoc nhiu quan chc ngnh a chnh v qui hoch "chm im" tuyt i chnh xc trn tm bn s c cng khai vo tun ti (!).
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Thm nh d n u t
121 = 100 (1 + 10%) (1 + 10%) = 100 (1 + 10%)2 khi qut, t: PV = 100 FV2= 121 r = 10% n=2 Ta c: FV2 = PV (1 + r)2 Tng t cho FV3, FV4, FV5,,v: FVn = P (1 + r)n Trong , PV : r: n: FVn : gi tr s tin hin ti (present value) li sut (rate) s nm 15 (number) gi tr tng lai (future value) ca s tin PV sau n nm, vi li sut l r, k ghp li (vo vn) l nm. V c bit, H s (1 + r)n, nhn t lm cho gi tr t PV bin thnh FVn chnh l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng ng vi li sut l r, thi gian l n. (1+r)n cn c gi l h s tch ly hay h s li kp 16. V h s tch ly lun ln hn hoc bng 1 ( 1). Gi tr tng lai lun ln hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr hin ti. (Xem ph lc cc bng h s tch ly cui sch) Trong cng thc (1) v c cc cng thc tip theo ta thy c cc yu t: FV, PV, n, r. V d gi l "ton ti chnh", "chit khu dng tin" hay l g gh gm i na th vn l vic i tm gi tr cc yu t trn bng cc bi ton nhn chia, quy tc tam sut v cng n gin.
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cng thc (1)
C th ng dng vi k on l tun, thng, qu, 6 thng. Trong d n thng l nm. Mt lu khc l, n l k on, l khong cch thi gian ch khng phi l k hiu nm lch. Compounding factor
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Thm nh d n u t
Mt ln na, vn khng phi l tnh ton m l s vn dng chng nh th no trong i thc. Mt khc, tt c nhng g thuc v tnh ton c my tnh lm (to do), b no nh b ca con ngi ch dnh ngh (to think) m thi. ng lo lng cc cng thc! Tt c cc tnh ton trong chng ny (v c quyn sch) u c hng dn Excel. V d 12.1: Tnh gi tr tng lai FVn
Bn s c bao nhiu tin khi tt nghip i hc (4 nm) nu by gi (u nm th nht) bn mang 2 triu gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut c nh 10% nm. S tin 2 triu vi li sut 10% nm, sau thi gian 4 nm s tr thnh: FV = PV (1+r)n FV = 2(1+10%)4 = 2 1,46 = 2,92 triu ng (h s tch ly 1,46 c c ct 10% v hng 4 trong bng gi tr tng lai ca mt ng, phn ph lc cui sch) V d 12.2: nm? 2,92=2(1+r)4 Vit cch khc: (1+r)= 4 1,46 =1,461/4=1,1 Vy, V d 12.3: r = 0,1 hay 10% Tnh thi gian n Tnh li sut r Li sut no lm cho s tin 2 triu tr thnh 2,92 triu sau 4
Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam tng gp 2 ln so vi hin nay, nu
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Thm nh d n u t
nn kinh t chng ta phn u gi c tc tng trng u hng nm l 7,2%? 17 p dng cng thc (1) 2=(1+7,2%)n =(1,072)n Ly logarit 18 hai v Ln 2 = n Ln 1,072 Suy ra Kt qu: phi mt n 10 nm. V d 12.4 Tnh thi gian n (tip theo) Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam bng vi mc nm 1995 ca mt s quc gia? V d: GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam hin nay l 450 la, v phn u t tc tng trng hng nm l 7,5% th cn lu lm. Bn s nh Excel tnh nhanh chng cho bn kt qu bun sau y 19.
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Cha tnh n tc tng dn s. Lgarit t nhin (Natural logarithm), cn gi l Logarit c s e (e = 2, 7183) C l trong cc sch gio khoa cp mt, m ngi ta ang ci t, phi dy cho tr em s tht rng nc ta rt ngho v hun c ni lo v iu .
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Thm nh d n u t
GDP u ngi ca Vit Nam Tc tng trng H s tch ly 1 nm (=1+0,075) Ln 1,075 GDP u Quc gia ngi 1995 (USD) Nht Bn Hoa K Singapore Thailand 9.640 26.980 26.730 2.740 So vi Vit Nam (ln) 88 60 59 6 4,48 4,09 4,08 1,81 Lni
450 7,5% 1,075 0,07232 S nm cn thit (nm) 62 57 56 25
HNG DN EXCEL (cc tnh ton trong nhng v d trn) (1) Bnh phng, cn s Bn c th s dng phm nng tnh nhanh cc php tnh ly tha, cn s nh sau: Ly tha: Shift v du ^. V d bn mun tnh 23, bn ch cn nh: =2^3 v OK, Excel s cho bn kt qu l 8. Cn s: Shift v du ^, m ngoc n, nh phn s vi t s l 1 v mu s l bc ca cn, ng ngoc n v OK. V d bn mun tnh 3 8 bn s nh nh sau: = 8^(1/3), kt qu s l 2. (2) Hm Ln Tng t, dng phm nng tnh nhanh gi tr logarit. V d bn mun tnh Ln 88, bn s nh: =Ln(88), Excel s cho bn kt qu l 4,48.
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Thm nh d n u t
Nhng nu bn mun i thm cc hm Excel lm quen, ri thn v yu, th tng t cc hm thng k (Statistical) c hng dn cc chng trc, nhng by gi l hm ton v lng gic (Math&Trig). u tin bn bm nt fx, chn loi hm Math&Trig, tn hm l Ln chng hn, nh di y:
Nh l ch cn tnh mt s thi, sau dng lnh copy b ph thy Excel tnh cc s cn li. (3) Hm FV Cng trong fx, bn chn hm ti chnh (financial) v bn s c rt nhiu th, trong c hm FV.
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Thm nh d n u t
Lu : Bn s b qua Pmt, n mc gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u, ta s tr li hm ny. Khi s dng phm nng bn s b qua bng cch bm 2 ln du phy, du ngn cch cc khai bo tng ng trong bng tnh trn y. =- FV(C1,C2,,C3) c ch type dng khai bo thi im thanh ton, nu u k th khai 1, nu trng th Excel mc nh l 0, tc cui k 20. (4) Hm Goal seek Sau khi bn tnh FV ca 100 ng sau 3 nm vi li sut 10% l 133,1 ng, by gi bn mun bit li sut 12% th s l bao nhiu, bn a chut vo 10% sa thnh 12% ri OK (tc Enter) bn s c ngay kt qu mi. Tng t, bn s i s nm Lm c iu ny v bn lin kt cng thc trc . Nhng nu bn mun bit gi tr tng lai s l 172 ng th li sut phi l bao nhiu, th sao? Tt nhin bn s m mm, tc ln lt cho thay i li sut, mi ln mt t cho n khi no FV bng ng 172 mi thi!
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Excel rt chu o, nhng iu bnh thng, ph bin v hp l u c n mc nh sn. Chng hn hm FV c mc nh l m v Excel hiu l tr nn bn li phi thm du tr vo pha trc thnh dng nh trn! Nhng chu o qu mc c khi cng c khi lm ta bc mnh.
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Thm nh d n u t
Nhng trong trng hp ny, c hm Goalseek (tm kim kt qu) gip bn 21.
Excel: Tools/Goalseek Bn ch cn bm OK th cha 10% ( B1) s tr thnh 19,8% v cha gi tr 133,1 ( B5) s tr thnh 172 lp tc.
Nu mun gi kt qu mi, bm OK; nu mun tr tr v gi tr c, bm Cancel. n nay th bn thy rng, vic tnh FV, PV, r, n l chuyn d nh mc tin trong ti. (5) Bng h s tin t Tc cc bng tnh gi tr tng lai (h s tch ly) v gi tr hin ti (h s chit khu) ca tin t (ph lc cui sch). Bn hy m Excel ra, np cc gi tr li sut nh mun nh sau:
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Nhng hy nh, nhiu hm trn Excel khng phi ch dnh cho mt nhu cu duy nht. T tng , bn c th p dng tnh cho nhiu bi ton khc. Ngay c cng thc FV cng vy, bn thy rng n khng ch dnh ring cho vic tnh gi tr thi gian ca tin t.
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Thm nh d n u t
y chng qua cng vic lin kt cng thc, mt bi tp s ng u tin khi bt u lm quen vi bng tnh Excel. Nhng phng h c bn cha bit nn ti hng dn c th mt cht 22. V ch mt ln ny thi, ln sau s vn tt hn. Bc 1: nh my cc li sut m bn thng dng v bao nhiu ty thch, theo hng (thm ch theo ct cng c); nh my s nm 1, 2, 3, 4 theo ct, nh l ch cn nh 1, 2 thi. V n s l mt dy s u, bn nh du khi (tc bi en) hai 1 v 2 ri copy xung n khi no mi tay th thi. Excel thng minh lun chu o v thu hiu bn. Bc 2: t chut ti B2, g du bng (=), m ngoc n, nh s 1, g du cng (+), nhp chut vo B1 ch li sut, ng ngoc n, g du nn (^), nhp chut vo A2 ch s nm, Enter. B2 s hin ra h s 1.05. y l gi tr tng lai ca mt ng vi thi gian 1 nm v li sut 5%. Bc 3: Tri (c nh) A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4, khi a ch b tri s xut hin du $ hai bn), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick"
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Ch bi v ti l ha vi bn rng:"Excel d lm, ai d cha bit "chut" ui di hay ngn u c th lm c". V nh rng: "Yan can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c".
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Thm nh d n u t
(nm bn tri du "="), tr li. chut vo B2 v copy theo hng, ta s c hng h s trn. Bc 4: a chut tr li B2. Tri B1 (bng cch t con tr vo ch B1 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4), m tri A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm ba ln F4 23), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick" , tr li. chut vo v tr B2 v copy theo ct, ta s c ct h s trn. C th bn tip tc cho ht bng. Lc ny, mt ngn (no ) ca tay tri h trn nt F4 ch tri (bm mt ln F4) v m tri (bm ba ln F4); tay phi r chut n cc cn thit "tick" OK v copy. V c th, bn cng lm cho cc bng h s cn li nh trong phn ph lc. Khi thc hin xong, bn nh trang tr cho p (format) v lu gi li (tt nhin). Khi cn thay i mt li sut no bn ch vic a chut ln cha cc li sut, nh my li sut mong mun bn s c cc h s thay i tng ng.
2.2 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng T cng thc (1) ta suy ra:

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Nh l tri th bm mt ln, m tri th bm ba ln nt F4. Vy l m th kh hn?
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Thm nh d n u t
PV =
FV (1+ r )n
cng thc (2)
Trong , r: sut chit khu 24 Hoc c th vit cch khc: PV = FV

1 (1+ r )n
d dng thy c trong ,

1 gi l h s chit khu 25. V ngc li vi h s tch n (1+r)
ly, h s chit khu lun nh hn hoc bng 1 ( 1). Gi tr hin ti lun nh hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr tng lai. (Xem ph lc 2-1 Cc bng tnh gi tr thi gian ca tin t cui sch). Lu rng trong cng thc (2), sut chit khu r v thi gian n u nm di mu s. Ring n gin v mt s hc cng thy rng, thi gian cng di v sut chit khu cng cao th gi tr hin ti (PV) cng thp. Ngc li vi cng thc (1) tnh gi tr tng lai, thi gian n cng di li v li sut r cng cao th gi tr tng lai cng ln. V d 12.5: Tnh gi tr hin ti PV Tng lai 5 nm sau, bn s nhn c s tin l 1610 (n v tin) th by gi gi tr ca n l bao nhiu, vi c hi sinh li ca vn l 10% nm? Gi tr hin ti ca s tin 1610 s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut chit khu 10% s l:
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Thng thng, trong khi tnh gi tr hin ti ngi ta gi r l "sut chit khu" v khi tnh gi tr tng lai th gi l "li sut". Tuy nhin, khng c g quan trng trong cch gi ny. Nu mun, bn c th gi c hai cng l li sut hoc cng l sut chit khu cng khng sao. Trong phn nh gi d n sau ny, bn cn s thy sut chit khu chnh l "sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu" (return on equity) hay l "chi ph s dng vn" (cost of capital). Hoc, bn tng nghe: dng li sut th trng chit khu dng tin hay chit khu thng phiu, v.v Discounting factor
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Thm nh d n u t
PV = 1610 = 1610
1 (1+ 10% )5
1 1,610
= 1610 0,261 = 1000 Trong , 0,621 l h s chit khu. Xem ph lc, bng gi tr hin ti ca mt ng, ct 10% v hng 5. Nu ai ha cho bn s tin l 1 ng sau 5 nm, vi li sut ngn hng gi nh l 10% nm, bn s ni rng: "hy a cho ti 0,621 ng by gi, cng c". Nu bn nhn 0,621 ng v mang gi n vo ngn hng th bn cng s c 1 ng sau 5 nm. Ni cch khc, 0,621 ng ngy hm nay (hin ti) s tng ng 1 ng sau 5 nm (tng lai), vi sut chit khu 10% nm. T y, ngi ta cn c mt khi nim gi l "dng tin tng ng" 26. V d 12.6: Tnh sut chit khu r Ly v d 12.5, bn s hi rng vi sut chit khu no m ngi ta cho rng gi tr hin ti ca s tin 1610 s nhn c sau 5 nm ch l 1000. Bn s lm bi ton ly tha, cn s ging nh tnh li sut mc 1.1. Mt khc, by gi bn c cc cng c c lc trn Excel. Excel: Hm PV thc hin tng t nh FV hng dn trn y. = -PV(sut chit khu, thi gian, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK. (nh cch 2 du phy sau khai bo thi gian)
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Equivalence.
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Thm nh d n u t
2.3 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng u nhau Cng thc 27: FVA = A

(1+ r )n 1 r
cng thc (3)
Trong , A l s tin u (Annuity) V d 12.7: Tnh FVA Mi u nm, bn mang 100 (n v tin) u nhau gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut l 10%. Sau 5 nm bn s c s tin l bao nhiu? FVA = 100
(1+ 10% )5 1 10%
FVA = 100 [6,105] = 610,5 Trong , 6,105 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng u nhau (xem ph lc v cc bng tnh gi tr tin t) 6,105 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi li sut 10% v (khong cch) thi gian ln lt l 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. S dng cng thc (1), bn tnh gi tr tng lai ca tng 1 ng v cng li nh sau: 1: 1,1: 1,21: 1,331: 1,464: Cng: 6,105: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 0 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm. Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng u nhau sau 5 nm vi li sut r = 10%. Chng ta s lu n s 0 (m ti c tnh in m):
27
Nu thch, bn c th t chng minh cng thc ny bng cch tnh gi tr tng lai ca tng mn tin ca tng nm ri tng hp li, hoc c th xem chng 7, sch Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip hoc chng 7, sch Phn tch qun tr ti chnh, cng mt tc gi v nh xut bn.
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Thm nh d n u t
- Ly tha trong cc cng thc l ch khong cch thi gian ch khng phi nm lch. - Thi im chi 1 ng ln cui cng cng chnh l thi im tnh FV nn khong cch thi gian l 0. [=(1+10%)0=1] V d 12.8: Tnh A Mt cng ty mun c s tin 610,5 triu u t my mc thit b vo 5 nm ti th hng nm phi dnh s tin u nhau l bao nhiu, bit li sut nm l 10%. T cng thc (3), ta suy ra:
(1+ r )n 1 A = FVA r (1+ 10% )5 1 = 610,5 10%
= 610,5 6,105 = 100 V d 12.9: Tnh n Bn v ngi yu ca bn u mi ra trng, tch cp hng thng c 2 triu ng v mang gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut 1% thng. Bit bao gi i uyn ng mi c s tin 38 triu lm l hp hn? Hy bm ly cng thc gc:
(1+ 1% )n 1 FVA = 2 = 38 (triu ng) 1%
C t nht l ba cch bn i tm n (s thng). (i) Bn c nhn ln chia xung, chuyn v qua li, khi thun li th ly Ln hai v tnh n. (ii) Bn hy tnh h s trong ngoc, trng hp ny thy r h s bng 19 (= 38 2), tra bng gi tr tng lai mt ng u nhau
18
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Thm nh d n u t
ti ct r=1% v xem ng vi hng n bng bao nhiu, chnh l s cn tm. (iii) Bn dng hm Nper trn Excel. Tt nhin ti khuyn bn chn cch th ba v khng qun hng dn di cui mc ny. Hai bn cng tnh thy khng cn bao lu na, ch c 17,5 thng na thi (n=17,5). V d 12.10: Tnh r C 2 cng ty bo him nhn th: A v B p dng phng thc bn bo him (tc l vay tin ca khch hng y) nh sau: A thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,5 triu ng, nu sau 5 nm m khng c g xy ra, tc chng c tai nn g c th cng ty s tr li cho bn s tin l: 31,17 triu ng. B thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,4 triu ng, nu sau 6 nm tt c vn bnh yn, tc nh tri bn chng h hn g m cng ty vn cha ph sn 28, th h s tr li cho bn s tin l: 35,11 triu ng. Bn chn mua bo him (tc cho vay) cng ty no ng v phng din li sut? gii bi ton ny (cng gip cho cc i l thnh thong vn gi in cho bn y), bn c cng thc, mm mui v sn sng ch bin. FVA chnh l s tin bn s nhn khi kt thc hp ng, A n l s tin bn phi tr u hng qu, l s k (s qu), v d nu 5 nm l 20 qu. (1) Vi cng ty A Ta vit li cng thc (3) d theo di FVA = A
(1+ r )n 1 r
28
Nu h mang tin ca bn i mua c phiu ca Enron hay WorldCom hay cho mt cng ty no vay ging nh Nc hoa Thanh Hng trc y, l kt y !
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Thm nh d n u t
(1+ r )20 1 31,17= 1,5 r
H s trong ngoc, tc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 20 k v li sut l r, s bng:
(1+ r )20 1 = 20,78 r
r = 0,4% (li sut qu, tc 1,6% nm 29) V nguyn tc, bn s tra bng gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau hng 20 tm thy h s 20,78, ri nhn ngc ln xem ng vi ct r l bao nhiu. n y, bn s bo rng khng c s no ging nh vy trong bng c, ch c gn gn thi. L ra ti phi tho lun vi bn phng php ni suy (m vn phi dng n bng h s) tnh r trong trng hp ny nhng tm thi ti li mun chn cch khc. Th nht, bng h s l do bn t lp ( hng dn trn) mun li sut no m chng c; th hai, bn cng bit s dng hm ly tha, cn s, c bit l Goalseek. V th ba, n s c hng dn tnh trn Excel cui mc ny. (2) Vi cng ty B Cch tnh tng t, r = 0,38% (li sut qu, tc 1,5% nm) 2.4 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng u nhau L mt cng thc c rt nhiu p dng trong thc t, nht l cc lnh vc u t trn th trng ti chnh - tin t. Cng thc, suy ra t (1) v (3):
(1+ r )n 1 PVA = A n r(1+ r)
29
cng thc (4)
Tm thi b qua li sut thc v li sut danh ngha cho rc ri. S gp li mc lm pht, trong chng ny.
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Thm nh d n u t
V d 12.11:
Tnh PVA
Bn bit gi thu nh (tr hng nm, vo cui nm) l 500 (n v tin). Nhng nu ngi cho thu i ly trc mt ln cho 5 nm th bn nn thng lng vi h gi bao nhiu? Nu li sut bnh qun th trng l 10%.
(1+ 10% )5 1 PVA = 500 5 10%(1+ 10%)
= 500 [3,791] = 1895 (n v tin) 30 H s chit khu 3,791 chnh l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 5 nm v sut chit khu l 10%. (Xem ph lc h s chit khu cui sch). 3,791 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi sut chit khu 10% v (khong cch) thi gian ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. S dng cng thc (2), bn tnh gi tr hin ti ca tng 1 ng (ph lc h s chit khu cui sch) v cng li nh sau: 0,909: 0,826: 0,751: 0,683: 0,621: Cng: 3,791: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm. Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm. Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm. Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm. Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 5 nm. Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau sau 5 nm vi sut chit khu r = 10%. (Lu rng, thi gian cng di gi tr hin ti cng nh) V d 12.12: Tnh r Bn d tnh mua mt chic xe gn my hiu BadDream III gi hin ti trn th trng l 2000 USD, khng tin nn bn phi mua tr gp.
30
Ch khng phi l: 500 5 = 2500!
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Thm nh d n u t
C hai ca hng bn xe m bn s chn: Ca hng Gia Long v ca hng Hng Vng. Phng thc thanh ton ca hai ca hng c cho trong bng di y. Bn s chn mua ti ca hng no, ng v phng din li sut? Gi xe hin ti Tr ngay Tr chm Mi ln tr S ln tr Thi gian tr Li sut (2 thng) Li sut (1 thng) V d 12.13: Tnh A 2000 CH Gia Long CH Hng Vng 400 1600 300 6 12 3,48% 1,74% 500 1500 225 8 16 4,24% 2,12% n v USD USD USD Ln Thng
Gi mua tr ngay ca chic laptop hiu GreenField (vi tnh xch tay - notebook) l 1000 USD, nu mua (bn) tr gp vi li sut bnh qun th trng l 10% nm, tr u trong 3 nm th mi ln tr s l bao nhiu? T cng thc (4), ta suy ra:
(1+ r )n 1 A = PVA n r(1+ r) (1+ 10% )3 1 = 1000 3 10%(1+ 10%)
= 1000 2,487 = 402 USD Trong , h s chit khu 2,487 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau vi sut chit khu 10% v thi gian l 3 nm (xem ph lc cui sch).
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Thm nh d n u t
Ta c th ng dng lp mt lch tr n nh sau: Li sut nm Vay n (u nm 1) Nm N u k Li pht sinh Tr u, trong : - N gc - Li vay N cui k 1,000 10% 1,000 0 1 1,000 100 402 302 100 698 2 698 70 402 332 70 366 3 366 37 402 366 37 0
Lu : Cc tnh ton c lm trn s ( bt ri mt!) v, du chm (.) hay phy (,) trn Excel c biu hin kiu ting Anh ( tp nhn cho quen!). Khi bn tp trung cao vo nhng iu ct li hay tng ca vn , bn s bit b qun nhng iu vn vt (!) 31. V d 12.14: Tnh n Nhm gi chn nhn vin gii, cng ty quyt nh mi nhn vin cng lm ch cng ty bng cch bn mt l c phiu tr gi 20 triu cho anh (hay c) ta, tr vo lng mi thng 0,5 triu. Li sut bnh qun th trng hin ti 6% nm (theo cch n gin l 0,5% thng), phi tr bao nhiu thng lng mi xong? Tng t v d 2.3.3 ca i uyn ng trn y, nhng bn s tnh n trong cng thc (4), gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u. PVA = 20 = 0,5
(1+ 0,5% )n 1 n 0,5%(1+ 0,5%)
Bn s bin i, ly Ln v tnh n nh trn y. Tuy nhin hy xem hng dn trn Excel cui mc ny. thy n = 45 thng
31
Trong khi ging bi, ti rt thch cu hi ca sinh vin i loi nh: " tng (hay trit l) ca vn ny l g?", v hon ton khng thch nhng cu hi nh: "s ny u ra?", "lm sao m tnh c?".
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Thm nh d n u t
Ti sao khng phi l 40 thng (= 20 0,5)? n gin l ging nh cng ty cho nhn vin ny vay (vi li sut 6% nm) ch khng phi cho mn khng. V vy c cu hi vui. Sau khi cng khai cch tnh trn, nhn vin than phin rng, li sut th trng hin nay l 12% nm sao cng ty tnh vi ti ch 6% nm? Bn s tr li ra sao v s bo li cho nhn vin thi gian tr lng l bao nhiu thng? Trn bng tnh Excel bn di, bn ch cn thay i 6% tr thnh 12% thy rng, thi gian tr lng s ko di ti 51 thng! Nh rng, trong cng thc PV ni chung, r nm di mu s, r cng ln th PV cng nh. Nm na l, thu 20 triu, thi gian phi di hn. 2.5 Quan h gia gi tr hin ti v gi tr tng lai ca cc dng ngn lu Khi nu cng thc (4) gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau, ta thy rng n c suy ra t cng thc (3) gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau. Trong khi , gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau l tng cng gi tr hin ti ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 2), v gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau l tng cng gi tr tng lai ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 1). Bn thy y! Bn v anh hng Lng Sn Bc tp trung c ri y. Mt tnh ton trong bng sau y gip bn t tm tt tng v cc mi quan h gia cc dng tin. Li sut Thi gian (nm) 10% 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cng
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Thm nh d n u t
Ngn lu hin ti H s tch ly Gi tr tng lai Sut chit khu Thi gian (nm) Ngn lu tng lai H s chit khu Gi tr hin ti Ta c:
1000 1, 1000 10% 5 0 -
1000 1,1 1100
1000
1000
1000
6,105 6105
1,21 1,331 1,464 1210 1331 1464
1 1000
2 1000
3 1000
4 1000
5 1000
Cng 3,791 3791
- 0,909 0,826 0,751 0,683 0,621 909 826 751 683 621
6105 l gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5 3791 l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5 Gia chng c th c mi lin h no khng? Nu xem 6105 l mt dng ngn lu n s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut chit khu 10%, gi tr hin ti s l: S dng cng thc (2): PV = 6105 = 6105
1 (1+ 10% )5
1 1,610
= 6105 0,621 = 3791 (Trong , 0,621 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v sut chit khu l 10%.)
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Thm nh d n u t
Nu xem 3791 l mt dng ngn lu n hin ti, gi tr tng lai sau 5 nm, vi li sut 10%, s l: S dng cng thc (1): FV = 3791 (1+10%)5 = 3791 1,610 = 6105 (Trong , 1,610 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v li sut l 10%.) Hoc nhn cch khc, = 3791 0,621 = 6105 n y c l bn nhun nhuyn nh v k thut chit khu dng tin v bn hon ton c th t tin vo nhng ngy i thi v ng dng chng vo cc bi ton trong i thc. 2.6 Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u v tn T cng thc (4)
(1+ r )n 1 PVA = A n r(1+ r)
Ta c th vit li PVA =
A 1 1 r (1+ r )n
Khi n ln ( ), th
1 0 (1+ r)n
V PVA s c vit n gin nh sau PVA =

A A ; hoc r = ; hoc A = PVA r r PVA
V d 12.15:
Tnh PVA
Chnh ph c ch trng giao khon, bn, cho thu doanh nghip nh nc. V nh l bn doanh nghip ang hot ng ch khng phi bn thanh l ti sn gii th doanh nghip, hai vic ny rt khc nhau.
26
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Thm nh d n u t
D kin dng thu nhp hng nm tng i n nh ca cng ty thuc tnh B l 20 triu, bn s mua doanh nghip ny vi gi no nu sut sinh li mong mun ca bn l 10% nm. Doanh nghip lun c gi nh l hot ng lin tc, khng thi hn 32, v vy gi tr ca n c th l: PVA = V d 12.16:
A 20 = = 200 triu r 10%
Tnh r
Nhng ti ch tr gi 33 cng ty khong 100 triu thi. V n gin l c hi sinh li cho ng tin ca ti l: r= V d 12.17:
A 20 = = 20% PVA 100
Tnh A
Ngi bn ti, lm n kh khn do c ch chnh sch nng n tnh T quyt nh chuyn vn v tnh B tr gi cng ty 300 triu, trong khi sut sinh li i hi ca anh ta cng ch l 10%. Anh ta tnh ton v k vng thu nhp hng nm ca cng ty l bao nhiu? A = PVA r = 300 10% = 30 triu. V d 12.18: Tnh A (tip theo) Cng ty kinh doanh v pht trin nh Qun Bnh Thnh c chnh sch bn nh tr gp cho ngi ngho, dnh u tin cho nhng c dn thnh ph th thit, c h khu t nm 1975 n nay cha c nh . Gi hin ti ca cn h l 100 triu, tr mi nm 2 ln trong vng 50 nm. Cng ty c Thnh ph cho vay v bo m c nh li vay l 8% nm (4% cho 6 thng). Theo bn, mi ln tr nn bao nhiu?
32 33
Xem ph lc Cc nguyn tc k ton cn bn cui sch. K c mua ca nh nc cng phi xem hng v tr gi. l th trng m, thun mua va bn. Nu nh nc ch rao bn nhng sn phm ti, c th l cc doanh nghip quc doanh o ut chun b em chn, th mi mi khng bn c ci no c. Cc cng ty cn tm tm th nh nc mun bn cng khng c v cc gim c c th gi qu. C phn ha m cn phi do cch chc, hung h g bn.
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Thm nh d n u t
Bn c th xem 50 nm (100 ln tr) l v tn, v bn c th ngh mi ln tr l: A = PVA r = 100 triu 4% = 4 triu Bn c th s dng cng thc (4), vi cc thnh phn: P = 100 triu ; n = 100 ln ; r = 4% Ta cng c: A = 4 triu. HNG DN TRN EXCEL (i) Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u (FVA) Vn trong fx/ financial/ FV nh hng dn trn y, dng s liu v d 12.7, tnh FVA nh sau
S dng hm FV ca dng tin u cng ging nh FV ca mt s tin n trn y, thm ch cn d hn. Thc ra hm FV sanh ra phc v cho vic ny, tc tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u. (Trn kia, ta mn tnh s tin n). Trong bng c 3 gi tr cn khai bo ln lt: Rate: li sut (hay sut chit khu) Nper: S k on (thi gian) Pmt: S tin (tr) u Nh vy, nu s dng phm nng, bn ch cn nh: = FV(li sut, thi gian, s tin u)/OK.
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Thm nh d n u t
(ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u (PVA) Vn trong fx/ financial/ PV nh hng dn, dng s liu v d 12.11, tnh PVA nh sau
Vn l hm PV s dng tnh s tin n, nhng by gi n gin hn = PV(sut chit khu, thi gian, s tin u)/OK. (iii) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc FVA Hm PMT (payment) trong fx/ financial. S dng s liu trong v d 12.8 trn y, ta tnh s tin u A nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh (g): =PMT(li sut, s nm, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK. (lu 2 du phy sau s nm, tng ng vi bng tnh trn) (iv) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc PVA Vn l hm PMT trn y nhng thao tc cn n gin hn nhiu. n gin l bi v hm PMT ra i dng cho mc ch ny, tc tnh A trong cng thc PVA. S dng v d 12.13 v mua tr gp, ta tnh trn Excel nh sau:
Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh:
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Thm nh d n u t
=PMT(sut chit khu, s nm, gi tr hin ti)/OK. (khng cn 2 du phy nh trong cng thc FVA) (v) Tnh r trong cng thc FVA Hm RATE (li sut) trong loi hm financial (ti chnh), trong fx. S dng v d 12.10, tnh li sut cng ty A.
Lu : Vi hm FV phi ghi m, tc phi nh thm du tr - khi khai bo, v Excel hiu l tr. Nu s dng phm nng (phm tt), ta nh: =Rate (S k, S tin u, ,Gi tr tng lai) (nh cch 2 du phy , sau S tin u. (vi) Tnh r trong cng thc PVA
Dng s liu trong v d 12.12, mua xe BadDream III tr gp ta s dng hm Rate trong Excel nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Hm Rate trong gi tr hin ti n gin hn trong gi tr tng lai, ch cn khai bo lin tc (khng cch hai du phy). = Rate (S k tr, -S tin tr u, Gi tr hin ti)/OK. (Nh nh du tr - trc Pmt, v Excel hiu l tr.) Ch cn tnh cho ca hng Gia Long, copy sang cho ca hng Hng Vng.
(vii)
Tnh n trong cng thc FVA Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper34 =Nper(li sut,s tin u, ,gi tr tng lai)
S dng hm Nper trn Excel:
34
Nper: number of period: s k on.
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Thm nh d n u t
Lu : cch 2 du phy sau s tin u; s tin u Excel hiu l tr 35, nn phi c ghi m (<0). Dng v d 12.9 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:
Kt qu: n = 17,5. (viii) Tnh n trong cng thc PVA S dng hm Nper trn Excel: Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper =Nper(sut chit khu,s tin u,gi tr hin ti) Lu : cc gi tr khai bo lin nhau, khng cn cch 2 du phy sau s tin u nh trong cng thc gi tr tng lai trn y; s tin u Excel hiu l tr 36, nn phi c ghi m (nh du tr - trc Pmt). Dng v d 12.14 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:
35 36
Pmt: payment: tr Pmt: payment: tr
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Thm nh d n u t
Kt qu: n = 45 thng Nu li sut 12% nm (tc 1% thng) th thi gian tr lng l:
Bn ch cn a chut vo B1 v nh 12%, s thng s thay i thnh 51 thng nh trn.
Li tha vui cng bn,
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Thm nh d n u t
Qua hn 40 trang vt ln vi nhng con s, cng thc cng cc cng c trn bng tnh Excel, bn thy rng k thut chit khu dng tin khng qu kh nh bn tng ngh. V c bit, nhng thao tc trn Excel cng tht l d dng. Nu gi nh bn cha tng ng n cc hm ti chnh (financial) nh vy bao gi th li khuyn l: khng cn phi b thi gian n lp, m hy ngi quy vi my tnh ca bn mt ngy (hoc vi ngy, hoc lu hn, v c th s b bnh ghin), tt c ri s thnh thc. l cch m tc gi nhng dng ny tng lm. Yan can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c! III. Cc ch tiu dng nh gi d n Ch tiu ni chung l nhng thc o, dng nh gi mt hin trng no , l cng c phn tch nh lng. Cng nh phn tch hiu qu s dng vn cn phi tnh s vng quay vn 37, nh gi (thm nh) mt d n u t ngi ta cng phi dng n cc ch tiu c th. Mi ch tiu u hu ch, u gip ta nhng gc nhn khc nhau v hiu qu d n. Ni cch khc, c th s dng tt c cc ch tiu vo trong cng mt d n. Tuy nhin, trong mt s trng hp phi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau (thc hin d n ny th b qua d n kia), gia cc ch tiu s c nhng mu thun, thm ch tri ngc nhau. Mt s trng hp khc, c nhng ch tiu khng th no p dng c. 3.1 Gi tr hin ti rng Gi tr hin ti rng c dch t nhm ch Net Present Value, vit tt l NPV, c ngha l hiu s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d n u t.
37
Nghin cu chng 14.
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Thm nh d n u t
NPV l mt ch tiu ph bin, n mc n tr thnh mt trong cc nguyn tc nh gi d n. 3.1.1 ngha v cng thc tnh NPV Theo nh ngha trn: NPV = Gi tr hin ti dng thu - Gi tr hin ti dng chi Cng thc tm tt NPV: NPV = PV (dng thu) - PV (dng chi) V mt tnh ton, tt c cc dng tin (thu hay chi) u c a v cng mt thi im hin ti thng qua mt sut chit khu (nhm t gi tr dng tin tng ng), tin hnh so snh. Nu NPV>0 c ngha l dng tin thu vo ln hn dng tin chi ra; v ngc li, NPV<0 c ngha l dng tin chi ra nhiu hn l thu v. Nh vy, ngha ca NPV>0 l s giu c hn ln, ti sn ca nh u t s n ln hn sau khi thc hin d n. C th nhng ch tiu khc (sau y) cng l nhng thc o gi tr d n, ng di cc gc nhn khc nhau. Tuy nhin, khng mt nh u t no, k c cc d n ca chnh ph 38, m li khng quan tm n s giu c hn ln ny. Chnh v l do , ch tiu NPV c xem l ch tiu mnh nht dng nh gi cc d n u t. Nu bn thch th hin tr tu hn, tc ngi c phi nhc c u, thm ch kh hiu, khi ngh ti NPV th bn vit nh sau 39:
38
39
C quan nim cho rng, nhng d n phc v nhim v chnh tr, x hi, tc d n cng (public project) th khng cn thm nh hiu qu kinh t. l mt tng sai lm, duy ch. K c cc d n thuc nhng lnh vc nhy cm nht, mc d kh khn nhng hon ton c th lng ha c cc dng thu, chi v do , vn c th s dng ch tiu giu c hn ln ny. (Tc gi hy vng rng quyn Thit lp v thm nh d n u t, d nh xut bn trong tng lai gn, s cp k lng v gi ti chnh v gi kinh t cng cc phn tch x hi ca mt d n u t) Ti th vn c lo lng rng, cng thc rc ri lm cho ngi ta s v khng mun nghin cu tip tc, b l c hi nhn ra rng ni dung ca vn tht v cng n gin, thit thc v hu ch.
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Thm nh d n u t
NPV =
(1+ r )
i =0
n
(Bi Ci )
i
Hoc c th vit cho gn hn: NPV = Trong , i: r: n: PV : Bi : Ci : (Bi Ci) :

n
PV (B C )
i =0 i i
k hiu cc nm ca d n (lu : cui nm 0 bng u nm 1) sut chit khu s nm (hay s k) ca d n gi tr hin ti (thi im nm 0) dng thu (ngn lu vo) ca nm th i dng chi (ngn lu ra) ca nm th i dng rng (ngn lu rng40) ca nm th i
PV (Bi Ci) : gi tr hin ti rng ca nm th i
i =0
tng cng cc gi tr hin ti (t 0 n n) Din ngha cng thc ny ra ting B Ngoi th vn l: hiu
s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d n u t. Mt ln na, cng thc ch l hnh thc tm tt cc tng, mt khi bn nm k phn hn bn c th d dng t vit ra cc cng thc theo bt c hnh thc no, vi nhng k hiu no, m bn thch. V d 12.19: Tnh NPV ca d n Bn mun u t mt ca hng photocopy trc cng trng i hc ca bn v t tn n l i Sinh Vin. D kin d n s cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) vo cui cc nm nh bng sau (n v tin). Trong , NCF l hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi.
40
Xem thm chng 13 Bo co ngn lu
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Thm nh d n u t
Ti mt nm no , NCF<0 c ngha l dng chi ln hn dng thu; ngc li, NCF>0 c ngha l dng thu ln hn dng chi 41. Gi nh rng, my mc thit b sau 5 nm khng cn gi tr tn dng (nu d kin c gi tr tn dng th n s tr thnh mt dng thu t vic thanh l ti sn vo nm cui d n, tc nm th 5); v sut sinh li i hi cho ng vn hin ti ca bn l 20% nm (nh hn bn khng lm, v bn cn c c hi u t khc cng ha hn sinh li 20%). ng lo lng cc tnh ton m trc ht hy xc nh cc tng chnh cho bi ton ny. - Th nht, chi ph c hi s dng vn ca bn l 20% s chnh l sut chit khu (r = 20%) ca d n. - S tin rng (hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi) ghi trong cc nm 1, 2, , c ngha l trong tng lai 1, 2, nm na, bn mi thu c. Trong khi , dng tin rng 10.000 th phi chi ra by gi (cui nm 0 hay u nm 1) - Bn s a cc dng tin rng d kin thu c trong tng lai v gi tr hin ti (cng vi thi im dng chi, tc nm 0) thng qua sut chit khu r=20%. - Cui cng, hiu s gia chng, tc NPV s tr li cho bn cu hi v hiu qu d n. Kt qu: NPV = 684>0 Sut chit khu Nm NCF NPV 0 (10,000) 684 20% 1 5,000 2 4,500 3 3,500 4 2,000 5 1,000
C t nht l hai cch 42 bn tnh c NPV = 684.

41
Xem bo co ngn lu ca d n chng 13 Bo co ngn lu.
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Thm nh d n u t
Cch 1: Tnh gi tr hin ti tng dng tin (theo cng thc 1) ri cng li, nh sau: Gi tr hin ti cc dng thu: S dng cng thc (1) vi r = 20%, n ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ta tnh c cc gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu nh sau. PV1 = 5000
1 = 5000 0,833 = 4.166 (1+ 20%)1
Trong , 0,833 l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng vi thi gian l 1 nm v r = 20%. (Xem ph lc v bng h s tin t cui sch) Tng t, PV2 = 4500 V tip tc, PV3 = 3500 0,579 = 2.027 PV4 = 2000 0,482 = 964 PV5 = 1000 0,402 = 402 Cng PV1 n PV5 = 10.684 (lm trn s): tng gi tr hin ti cc dng thu. Gi tr hin ti cc dng chi: PV0 = 10.000
1 = 10.000 1 = 10.000 (1+ 20%)0
1 = 4500 0,694 = 3.124 (1+ 20%)2
(S tin 10.000 chi vo thi im tnh gi tr hin ti, khng c khong cch thi gian, n=0. V (1+20%)0 = 1) Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV): NPV = 10.684 10.000 = 684 (n v tin) Cch 2: S dng hm NPV trn Excel (hng dn cui mc ny).
42
Ti trnh by hai cch ch nhm gip bn c d hiu. Cn nu l sinh vin th bn c th phn loi hai cch nhng theo mc ch khc: cch dng i thi ht mn trn lp (c v khng cho mang bng tnh), cch dng thi trn my tnh (v cng l cch tnh trong i tht sau ny).
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Thm nh d n u t
3.1.2 (i)
Nhng sai lm thng gp khi s dng NPV Ta ch c th ngn gn m ni rng, NPV l gi tr hin ti ca
Dng ngn lu v li nhun
cc dng tin ch khng phi l li nhun. V li nhun khng phi l dng tin (ngn lu). Rng c li nhng khng c tin tip tc hot ng v vn phi ph sn C l tt nht l bn nn dnh cht thi gian qu bu ca bn xem nhng vn nh vy Chng 13 Bo co ngn lu. (ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng chi v tng vn u t Nu ta vit: NPN = PV (dng thu) - Tng vn u t, l hon ton khng chnh xc, thm ch l sai v nguyn l 43. V sao? Gi nh d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trong v d 12.19 trn y c chia lm 2 ln u t: cui nm 0 (u nm 1) u t 7000; v cui nm 1 (u nm 2) u t 3000 th kt qu nh gi d n cho bi ch tiu NPV s hon ton khc. C hai cch bn ngh (v tnh) v kt qu mi ny. Th nht, mt cch ngn gn, s tin 3000 n mt nm sau mi chi, gi tr hin ti ca n ch l: PV1 = 3000
1 = 3000 0,833 = 2499 (1+ 20%)1
C th ni cch khc, hin ti ch cn chi ra 2499 gi vo ngn hng (gi nh cng li sut 20% nm) th mt nm sau, tc n lc cn chi u t cng s nhn c 3000. Nh vy, gi tr hin ti ca dng chi ch l: 7000 + 2499 = 9499
43
Nu bn ngh nh th chng t bn hy cn nh hng bi cn bnh c, bnh bao cp. C ngh rng thm nh d n l lm sao cho d n trn tra, va lng ai nhm xin c giy php v nhn c vn! Cn bnh i km l bnh hnh thc, bnh khnh thnh, cho mng u t mt ln, trong qu trnh u t ch c dng chi ra m thi. Trong khi , khng ai cm d n khch sn 12 tng, ang xy tng 5 th t tng trt n tng 3 c th bt u khai thc.
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Thm nh d n u t
S tin u t s tit kim c 501 (= 10000 - 9499). NPV gi y s l: 10684 - 9499 = 1185 NPV tng ln mt gi tr bng vi s tit kim c, tc 501 (=1185 - 684) Th hai, mt cch chuyn nghip hn, ta lp li bo co ngn lu ca d n v tnh NPV cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF) mi nh sau:
Sut chit khu Nm NCF NPV 0 (7,000) 1185 Nhn xt:
20% 1 2,000 2 4,500 3 3,500 4 2,000 5 1,000
- Ngn lu rng cui nm 0 (u nm 1) ch l: - 7000 - Ngn lu rng cui nm 1 (u nm 2) ch l: 2000 (=5000 - 3000) (iii) Sut chit khu - mt vn nan gii Gi nh dng ngn lu c xc nh 44, mt s thay i trong sut chit khu s lm thay i NPV. Tr li v d 12.19 ca d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn y, gi nh mt nh u t khc cho rng chi ph c hi s dng vn ca anh (hay c) ta l 30%. Vi dng ngn lu rng gi nh ging ht nhau, kt lun v hiu qu d n s ra sao? NPV= -928<0 Sut chit khu
44
30%
Bng cc iu tra nghin cu cu ca th trng, ni dung ca mt mn hc khc, khng thuc phm vi quyn sch ny.
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Thm nh d n u t
Nm NCF NPV
0 (10,000) (928)
1 5,000
2 4,500
3 3,500
4 2,000
5 1,000
Bn c thy rng cng mt d n, cng d liu, ch khc nhau sut chit khu s dn n kt qu NPV khc nhau. Trc khi bn lao vo nghin cu nhng vn hc ba nh vy, qua v d nh ny ti ch mun bn nhn ra mt chn l n gin rng: mt d n tt cho bn (hay cng ty ca bn) th khng hn l tt cho tt c mi ngi. V v th, khng c mt sut chit khu no c th dng chung cho tt c 45. T , bn c th suy ngh n nhng kha cnh rng ln hn: ti sao mt cng ty nc ngoi u t vo ngnh may mc Vit Nam chng hn, li i hi mt sut sinh li 20%, trong khi sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh ny chnh quc ch l 6%? Ti sao sut sinh li i hi cc d n u t trc tip li cao hn u t gin tip, ngnh cu ng li cao hn ngnh ch bin thc phm Phm vi c hn ca quyn sch ny khng i su tho lun v vn chi ph s dng vn, tuy nhin bn hy tin rng y l mt ti vn (v s) cn rng m lu di cho con ng nghin cu khoa hc ca bn, nu bn quyt nh dn thn. V hy lun nh rng, khng c bt k mt kha hc no hay mt gio s lng danh no c th tr li ngay cu hi: sut chit khu ca mt d n c th no m bn sp thc hin nn l bao nhiu?.
45
Nu bn cho rng, sut chit khu nn l li sut ngn hng th li quay v bnh c. V nu nh vy, d n ca hng photocopy trn y lun c kt lun l tt ! V nh th th khng cn phi thm nh na. Ai s ngi li, cng vi Excel, vit mt cun t in NPV cho tt c cc d n: t sn xut nc hoa cho n xng mm tm, t khch sn 5 sao cho n nh my ng, t d n ao tm cho n nng trng trng c nui b !
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Thm nh d n u t
Trn th gii c hn nhng quyn sch ch dnh tho lun v chi ph s dng vn 46, ngay c chng ny cng c mt tit mc cp n sut chit khu, tuy nhin cng ch l nhng tng nhm hng bn n nhng tnh ton c th cho ring mnh m thi. Nhng nu bn c p ti phi a ra mt li khuyn chung chung (ging nh bc s no cng khuyn ti nn b thuc l, c ph, bia ru vy) th nhng l: - Hy tin chnh mnh trc . Nu bn (hoc cng ty bn) v ang (hoc cm thy c th c c hi) to ra mt sut sinh li hng nm l 15% th chnh l sut chit khu ca d n bn sp thc hin. Nhng d n phi cng ngnh vi bn ang hot ng. Chng th no ang kinh doanh vng bc c li sut 10% lp d n sn xut mui 47 cng ch i hi 10%, trong khi ngnh ny c sut sinh li bnh qun 30%. Vic xc nh sai sut chit khu s bp mo NPV v s dn n hai loi sai lm, thy u nghim trng: Sai lm loi I: chuc ly nhng d n ti, do nh gi NPV qu cao, b l v ph sn. Sai lm loi II: b qua nhng d n tt, do nh gi NPV qu thp, mt c hi kim li. Trong hai sai lm trn, sai lm loi II thng kh nhn din hn mc d c khi l nhng sai lm tai hi n khng khip. - Nu bit c sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh th l c s, c th cng thm vi phn trm li th hoc ri ro, nu cm nhn hoc d tnh c.
46
47
Gn nh bt k sch ti chnh cng ty (corporate finance) no cng c phn cp n chi ph s dng vn, tuy nhin tng i y v h thng hn, bn c th c quyn Cost of capital: Estimation and Applications ca Shannon P. Pratt, NXB John Wiley & Sons, Inc., nm 1998. Cn phn bit nhng d n thuc loi sa cha nng cp, m rng sn xut hay u t sn phm mi.
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Thm nh d n u t
- Tham kho sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh cc nc ln cn, c cng c im, trnh kinh t. - Cc d n cng loi ca nc ngoi u t Vit Nam, c iu chnh t l ri ro quc gia. V tic thay! Mt ch tiu mnh m v thuyt phc nht li cha ng mt nhc im trm kha nht, l vn sut chit khu. Cng c th nhn di gc cnh khc, ch tiu chnh xc nht v ng tin cy nht li thng l nhng ch tiu kh nut nht 48. Bn v sut chit khu Bn thy y, chng ta lun c chic hp m th gin. Ln ny chng ta tho lun v sut chit khu ca cc d n cng (public project), v d l mt d n cu ng c thu ph, chng hn. Mc ch ca cc nh u t l li nhun, l s giu c hn ln sau khi thc hin d n. V v vy, ch tiu NPV vn c s dng thm nh d n. NPV ca d n cu ng cng l thuc vo cc yu t nh bao d n khc m chng ta nghin cu. l: dng chi, dng thu, thi gian v sut chit khu. Dng chi c xc nh do thit k, quy m, kt cu (gi nh l chnh xc); Dng thu c xc nh do biu gi (thu ph) quy nh. Cu hi cn li l: cn phi nh u t khai thc thu ph bao nhiu nm t c mt sut sinh li mong mun l r% no . n y th bn hiu, thi gian lc ny ch cn l thuc vo sut chit khu r. Vic xc nh sai lnh trong r s dn n sai lnh nhiu nm cho quyn khai thc ca nh u t. Nu mi ngy, mt d n cu ng no thu ph c 100 triu ng chng hn, tnh sai 5 nm, t nc chng ta s chy
48
V cng vy, c bi cho sinh vin chp th d hn nhiu so vi ging bi cho vin hiu; thy c ni v bt sinh vin phi, v ch c nghe th d hn l trao i tho lun gip sinh vin nm r tng c th ng dng trong i thc sau ny.
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Thm nh d n u t
mu bit bao nhiu? Ai l ngi chu trch nhim thm nh canh ca cc d n loi ny? Hi, tc l tr li. Ni th gin tiu su m li cng su thm. 3.2 Sut sinh li ni b Sut sinh li ni b c dch t nhm ch Internal Rate of Return, vit tt l IRR. l mt sut chit khu m ti , lm cho NPV = 0. IRR cng l mt ch tiu ph bin, ch sau NPV, thng i lin v c mi quan h vi NPV. 3.2.1 ngha v cng thc tnh IRR chnh l kh nng sinh li ch thc ca bn thn d n. IRR ch thay i khi cc yu t ni ti, tc gi tr cc dng ngn lu thay i. Khi thy NPV=0 bn thng ngh rng d n khng mang li hiu qu no. Nhng bn nh rng, ngay c khi NPV=0 cng c ngha l d n mang li cho ng vn ca bn mt sut sinh li, chnh l IRR. Nh vy nu bn mong mun mt sut sinh li t d n l r = 20%, trong khi IRR = 24% (>20%) chng hn, th bn tha mn v c th quyt nh u t. Theo nh ngha trn y, IRR l mt sut chit khu m ti NPV=0, nh vy nu ta chn sut chit khu r=20% s lm cho NPV>0 (v r<IRR). C th ni khc i, khi NPV>0 th IRR>r. Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng c tha. By gi, gi nh mong mun sut sinh li t d n l r = 30%, trong khi IRR vn l 24% (<30%) chng hn, th bn khng hi lng v c th quyt nh khng u t 49.
49
Tham vng cao qu kh t? Nu mong mun ca bn thp hn hoc bng 24% th c l mi vic s tt p? l cch ni a, nhng s tht l l thuc vo c hi sinh li ca ng vn ca mi ngi (hay cng ty).
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Thm nh d n u t
Tng t trn, IRR = 24% l sut chit khu lm cho NPV=0 th sut chit khu r = 30% s lm cho NPV<0. Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng khng tha. Hai ch tiu ny c v l cp tin o bi trng y. H ci ny gt th ci kia OK v ngc li, cng lc 50. Nhng gt hay lc th da vo g? Cng li l mt sut sinh li mong mun no . Mt nhn xt khc c t ra. Nh vy th ch cn mt ch tiu l ? Chng ta s tho lun ngay bn di y v cc nhc im ca IRR, tuy nhin trc ht cn lu rng cp ch tiu ny ch thng nht trong tng d n (bnh thng), chng s khng cn gii thch c cho nhau khi so snh 2 d n khc nhau v thi im bt u, quy m v vng i d n. Cng thc! chng cn cng thc no c, ch cn cho NPV=0, gii phng trnh tm r, chnh l IRR. Hoc cho i mt r bt k tm NPV, nu NPV cha bng 0, tip tc thay r v m mm 51 cho n khi no c th thi! Nhng nu c lm ra v phc tp, bn c th gom cc tng vo cch vit bng cc k hiu cho n oai: IRR = r* NPV =
n
i =0
(Bi Ci ) = 0
(1+ r )
* i
V d: Mt d n c vng i 1 nm, dng ngn lu rng u nm 1 (cui nm 0) l: - 1000; cui nm th 1 l: 1200 (n v tin) th IRR l bao nhiu? NPV =
1200 1000 =0 (1+ r)1 (1+ r )0
50 51
Hu ht, nhng khng phi l tt c u nh vy. Nu hun, bn hy ngi ln Excel v th xem sao! Trial and Error: phng php m mm (th v sai, ri th v sai )
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Thm nh d n u t
Vy,
1200 = 1000 (1+ r)1
Suy ra, 1 + r = 1,2; V r = 0,2 hay 20%. IRR = 20% Tt nhin v d n gin ny ch nhm cung cp tng v IRR. Nu d n c vng i 2 nm, 3 nm, th bn hnh dung cn phi gii phng trnh bc 2, bc 3 V cng hy hi sau phn gii. By gi th hy quan tm n th IRR di y. 3.2.2 th quan h gia NPV v IRR Dng s liu d n i Sinh Vin v th nh sau:
Bn lm g, thy g, hc g v tnh g qua th ny? Cn ti th nh rng bn tng v nhng th tng t nh vy cc chng trc (t nht l trong cc chng 2, 5, 6). Lm: Th nht, bn to hai ct IRR v NPV nh hnh trn. IRR th bn t nh vo theo mun, chng hn nh 10% v 12% ri bi
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Thm nh d n u t
en, copy xung 30% (khong cch u nhau l 2%). Cn NPV? i nhiu qu lm sao tnh ni! Khng sao! Bn ch cn tnh mt gi tr NPV thi, ri copy xung, mun hng trm NPV th Excel cng cho bn trong ci chp mt. Bn c thy ti cho hin cc cng thc ln khng? Khi khai bo hm NPV, bn sut chit khu t do ( A6), cn cc khai bo cho gi tr cc dng tin th tri li (bm mt ln F4)/ OK. NPV tng ng vi r=10% s hin ra B6. R chut nh nhng xung gc di bn phi B6, khi thy xut hin ti y du ch thp mu en, nhp double click (nhp p, tc 2 ln chut, tt nhin l chut tri), ct NPV s xung nh hnh trn. Th hai, bi en hai ct (k c tn - label), vo biu tng v th v thao tc ging nh cc chng trc. Thy: Trong 2 ct s, c cp rt quen. r=20% v NPV=684, l kt qu ca v d d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn y m. Tc gi li, nn vn ly v d c thi. Khi r qua khi 22%, n gn 24% th NPV bt u m. Nhn sang th, thy ng NPV ct trc honh r ti 24%, v lc ny NPV=0 (nhn v trc tung NPV). r = 24% = IRR. (Xem hng dn tnh IRR ca d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn Excel cui mc ny, thy IRR = 24%) Hc: Bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn trn trc honh, tc phn NPV > 0, t chiu xung trc honh gp mt gi tr r < IRR. Hoc pht biu cho thun cu hn: Khi NPV > 0 th IRR > r Tng t, bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn di trc honh, tc phn NPV<0, t chiu xung trc honh gp
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Thm nh d n u t
mt gi tr r >IRR. Hoc c th pht biu cho thun cu: Khi NPV< 0 th IRR< r Tnh: Gii phng trnh ng thng dng y=a+bx=0 tm IRR. Nu bn chn mt r no , chng hn r=20%, tng ng vi NPV=684; V bn chn mt r khc, chng hn r=30%, tng ng vi NPV=-928. Nh vy, bn c hai to ca hai im. Qua bn c th vit phng trnh ng thng theo cng thc:
y y1 x x1 = y2 y1 x2 x1
Thay cc gi tr x1, x2, y1, y2 vo v a v dng phng trnh y=a+bx, cho bng 0 tm x, tc IRR. Nu qun, bn c th xem li chng 3 Cc phng php k thut s dng trong phn tch. p dng ng thc tam gic ng dng tnh IRR. T cc im chn trn y, bn s lp c ng thc tam gic ng dng v tm c IRR. Cng c th gi l phng php ni suy, theo cng thc sau: IRR = r1 + (r2 - r2)
NPV1 NPV1 + NPV2
Trong , (r2 r1)>0 r2 > r1 Dng v d d n Ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh IRR trn y ta kim nghim li cng thc: r1 = 20% NPV1 = 684 r2 = 30% NPV2 = -928 Theo cng thc ta c: IRR = 20% + (30% - 20%)
684 = 24% 684 + 928
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Thm nh d n u t
3.2.3
ng dng IRR trong u thu tri phiu Bn c bo thy cuc u thu tri phiu chnh ph tht bi,
tc ngi mua hay ngi cho vay (l cc ngn hng u t) v ngi bn hay ngi i vay (i din l B Ti chnh) khng gp nhau. B Ti chnh i gi 92000 ng, cc ngn hng tr gi (cao nht) ch l 85000 ng. Bit rng tri phiu c mnh gi 100.000 (ng), li sut tri phiu c nh 8% nm (c tc tr c nh mi nm: 8000 ng, nm cui cng tr li v vn gc: 108.000 ng), thi gian o hn 5 nm. Tt nhin B Ti chnh l ngi i vay nn mun li sut thp v cc ngn hng, l ngi cho vay nn mun li sut cao. Nhng cc li sut l bao nhiu? B Ti chnh mun li sut l 10% nn gi gi 92000 ng. Nm NCF IRR Nm NCF IRR 0 (92,000) 10% Cc ngn hng mun li sut l 12% nn tr gi 85000 ng. 0 (85,000) 12% Tng t nh vy, nu bn l i din ca ngn hng NCB i u thu. Ra i xp c dn rng: c th xung ti 11,5% th rng, thp hn th v, bn s tr gi cao nht cho l tri phiu l bao nhiu? 52 Nm NCF IRR
52
1 8,000
2 8,000
3 8,000
4 8,000
5 108,000
1 8,000
2 8,000
3 8,000
4 8,000
5 108,000
0 (87,202) 11,5%
1 8,000
2 8,000
3 8,000
4 8,000
5 108,000
Nh gi sn cng thc trn Laptop, ch khng phi ngi m ni suy!
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Thm nh d n u t
Chc hn l bn cn nh hm i tm kt qu Goal Seek nghin cu t u hm. Xem li cht nh!
Ch cn vic bm nt OK, mt ci nt d nht, to nht 53, cha 12% s thnh 11.5%, cn cha gi tr (85,000) s tr thnh gi tr m bn ch i: (87,202). 3.2.4 Nhng nhc im ca IRR Trong mt s trng hp d n c nhng dng ngn lu bt ng, IRR khng th tnh c. V d: C mt d n khai thc m, u nm 1 (cui nm 0) chi ra 1200, cui nm 1 thu v 5000. Nm 2 v nm 3 sau phi chi tin san lp, tr li mt bng c cho nh nc. Bo co ngn lu ca d n, c th nh sau:
53
Ti thy, sau khi khai bo (np s) xong, nhng ngi t tin thng ging mt ci tht mnh nt ny (OK hay Enter), hnh nh t thng!
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Thm nh d n u t
Vi sut chit khu 10%, y l d n rt c hiu qu (NPV=1437), tuy nhin IRR l bao nhiu? Hay ni cch khc, vi sut chit khu no s lm cho NPV=0? Tt nhin khng th tnh c. Nhc im khc, trong trng hp so snh la chn d n c tnh loi tr nhau, kt qu IRR thng khng th dn n kt lun hoc c kt lun sai lch. V d: C dng ngn lu ca 2 d n A v B nh sau: Nm D n A D n B 0 (1,000) (10,000) 1 1,400 14,000 IRRA = 40% IRRB = 40%
Gi nh ngun lc khng hn ch, nu ch dng ch tiu n c IRR nh gi, ta thy c hai d n u nh nhau, u c IRR l 40%. V bn khng th kt lun d n no tt hn. (Nu bn ni d n B c v li nhiu hn, tc l bn s dng mt ch tiu khc ri!) By gi ta thay i mt cht trong dng ngn lu ca d n B v cho sut chit khu l 10% (tt nhin cho c 2 d n). Tnh NPV? Sut chit khu Nm D n A D n B 0 (1,000) (10,000) 10% 1 1,400 IRRA = 40% 13,000 IRRB = 30% NPVA= NPVB= 273 1,818
Chng l no bn li chn A do c IRR cao hn B (40%>30%), trong khi B lm cho bn giu c hn ln rt nhiu so vi A (1818>273)! Nh nu trn y, hai d n c thi im bt u khc nhau, ch tiu IRR khng th phn bit c d n no hiu qu. V d: Xt IRR v NPV ca 2 d n di y. Sut chit khu 20%
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Thm nh d n u t
Nm D n A D n B -
0 (10,000) -
1 12,500
2 (10,000)
3 12,500
NPV 417 289
IRR 25% 25%
Hai d n u c IRR=25%, trong khi NPVA>NPVB rt nhiu (417>289). Tng t, khng th s dng IRR so snh hai d n c cng thi im bt u nhng vng i khc nhau. V d:
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Sut chit khu Nm D n A D n B 0 (10,000) (10,000)
20% 1 12,500 18,500 2 3 NPV 417 706 IRR 25% 23%
IRRA>IRRB (25%>23%), tuy nhin NPVA<NPVB (417<706) 3.3 T s li ch v chi ph T s li ch v chi ph c dch t nhm ch Benefit -Cost Ratio, c th vit tt l BCR hay B/C. l mt t l gia gi tr hin ti dng thu so vi gi tr hin ti dng chi. Ch tiu ny cng ph bin, i sau NPV v IRR, c mi lin h vi NPV. C th ni BCR l mt cch nhn khc v NPV. 3.3.1 ngha v cng thc BCR L mt ch tiu o lng hiu qu ca d n bng hnh nh t l gia li ch thu v so vi chi ph b ra. Nu ch tiu NPV ch ni ln s giu c hn ln mt gi tr ti sn nhng n khng so snh vi quy m ngun lc, th ch tiu BCR cho thy hiu qu ny. BCR l t s so snh gia gi tr hin ti dng thu v gi tr hin ti dng chi (trong khi , NPV l so snh hiu s). Cng thc:
Gia hie ta dog thu tr n i n Gia hie ta dog chi tr n i n
BCR =
Theo v d d n photocopy i Sinh Vin, BCR l: BCR = 3.3.2

10684 = 1,07 10000
Cc nhc im ca BCR Qua cng thc NPV v BCR ta thy chng c mi quan h gii
thch cho nhau. C th:
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NPV > 0 BCR > 1; Ngc li NPV < 0 BCR < 1. Tuy nhin, khi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau, mt mnh ch tiu BCR i khi bp mo kt qu nh gi. V d: Sut chit khu Nm D n A D n B 0 (6,000) (10,000) 20% 1 9,000 14,000 NPV 1,500 1,667 BCR 1.25 1.17
D n A c BCR ln hn (1.25>1.17), tuy nhin d n B li mang li ca ci rng ln hn (1667>1500). Mt nhc im khc na l, vic xc nh chi ph ca d n khng thng nht cng c th lm sai lch ch tiu ny. C quan im cho rng chi ph so snh trong cng thc ny ch nn tnh theo chi ph u t ban u (investment cost); trong khi , quan im khc th tnh trn ton b chi ph (total cost). 3.4 K hon vn tnh trn ngn lu Hiu t thut ng Payback Period (PP), l thi gian cn thit thu hi c vn u t. Nhiu d n khan him hoc l thuc vo thi gian huy ng vn, ch tiu ny thng t ra hu dng. n gin, nhn dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) trn bo co ngn lu ca d n thy c nm hon vn. K hon vn cng c th tnh trn dng ngn lu chit khu (DCF: discounted cash flows), tc c tnh n gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Tuy nhin qua nhiu th nghim ta thy khng c chnh lnh nhiu so vi cch tnh ch da trn dng ngn lu 54.
54
tng ca n l, tnh gi tr hin ti dng ngn lu ti thi im bt k. Ti nm no , gi tr bng 0 l nm hon vn.
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3.5 Sut sinh li k ton c dch t nhm t Accounting Rate of Return (ARR), l t l gia dng thu bnh qun hng nm so vi tng dng chi (hoc bnh qun). Cng thc: ARR =
Nga lu va bnh qua n o n To g nga lu ra n n
Theo v d d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin, ARR l: ARR =

(5000 + 4500 + 3500 + 2000 + 1000)/5 = 32% 10000
Ch tiu ARR cng gip ta mt cch nhn v hiu qu d n, tuy nhin n cng c cc nhc im tng t: khng tnh thi gi tin t v khng quan tm quy m cng nh vng i ca d n. Ch tiu ARR i khi cng c tnh n gin bng cch da trn li nhun bnh qun nh ROI di y. 3.6 Sut sinh li ca vn u t c hiu t thut ng Return on Investment (ROI), l mt ch tiu n gin n v cng, ch tnh trn li nhun v khng da vo dng ngn lu v gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Cng thc: ROI =
L nhua bnh qua ha g na i n n n m Vo a t n u
Ngoi nhc im phi tin t v phi thi gian nh nu trn, vn u t trong ch tiu ROI c tnh rt ty tin: c khi tnh trn tng vn u t, c khi tnh trn vn u t bnh qun (c tr khu hao vn qua tng nm). Lu rng, nu li nhun thng nht vi dng ngn lu, mc d him khi, th ROI s bng vi ARR trn y. V d: D n X c vn u t 100 triu, li nhun bnh qun hng nm l 20 triu th ROI s l:
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ROI =
20 = 20% 100
3.7 K hon vn tnh trn li nhun L mt cch nhn khc v ROI, c vit ngc li vi ROI nh sau: PPNI 55 =
Vo a t n u L nhua bnh qua ha g na i n n n m
Theo v d trn: PPNI = 3.8

100 m = 5 (na ) 20
Cch nhn khc v NPV v IRR Thc ra mc ny nhm din gii thm, lm cho ch tiu vua
NPV d hiu hn m thi. Mc khc, trong s kt hp vi NPV cng lm r thm bn cht ca IRR. Ch tiu gi tr hin ti rng NPV nh chng ta nghin cu v nhn thy l mt ch tiu mnh m, ng tin cy, gii thch s giu c hn ln cho ch u t sau khi thc hin mt d n kinh doanh. Nhng ch tiu ny, ngoi nhc im l vic xc nh sut chit khu ph hp, cn mt khuyt im hm oan na l: kh hiu. Sau y l mt ngh v cch tip cn vi ch tiu ny 56. V d: C dng ngn lu t mt d n nh sau Nm NCF Sut chit khu: 10% Bng kt qu thm nh: NPV = 254 0 -500 1 300 2 400 3 200
55 56
K hiu NI (Net Income: li rng) phn bit vi PP tnh trn dng ngn lu. Ti vit thm mc ny, v ti tin rng nhn v tng lai thng lm cho ngi ta d hnh dung hn, n l kiu t duy thun chiu. Cng ging nh hc ton vy, hc ton cng trc ri mi ton tr, nhn ri mi chia, ly tha ri mi cn s, vi phn ri tch phn, gi tr tng lai c cp trc gi tr hin ti.
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IRR = 39% Vn 1: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh li sut. Gi P = 500 l vn u t Nu gi vo ngn hng gi nh vi li sut r = 39% nm, sau 3 nm ta c s tin: FC = 500 (1 + 39%)3 = 1330 Nu u t d n v to ra cc dng thu, gi tr ca dng thu ny sau 3 nm cng l: 1330 FB = 300 (1+39%)2 + 400 (1+39%)1 + 200 (1+39%)0 FB = 576 + 554 + 200 FB = 1330 Nh vy, ta c th hiu IRR nh l mt sut sinh li ha vn, v u t cho d n hay gi ngn hng u nh nhau. Nhng lu rng sut sinh li 39% ch c thng qua u t, khng th c mt li sut tin gi cao nh vy c. Vn 2: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh gi tr tng lai. By gi ta cng tnh F n nm th 3 tuy nhin ch vi li sut 10%, l sut sinh li mong mun. Ta c: FB = 300 (1+10%)2 + 400 (1+10%)1 + 200 (1+10%)0 = 363 + 440 + 200 = 1003 Gi tr tng lai n nm th 3 ca vn u t P= 500 (cng vi r=10%) l: FC = 500 (1+10%)3 = 665,5 Nu ta gi chnh lch gi tr tng lai ca dng thu (FB) v gi tr tng lai ca dng chi (FC) bng mt tn gi l NFV (Net future value: gi tr tng lai rng), ta c: NFV = 1003 665,5 = 337, 5
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Thm nh d n u t
T ta thy rng li ch trong tng lai s ln hn nu u t vo d n thay v gi ngn hng (hay dnh cho cc hot ng khc trong hin ti) vi li sut 10%. Nu a NFV = 337,5 v gi tr hin ti NPV (r = 10%) ta cng s c NPV = 254, thng nht vi gi tr NPV bng kt qu thm nh trn y.
NPV= NFV 337,5 = =254 (1+r) (1+10%)
n 3
Vn 3: Mt cch nhn khc v sut sinh li ni b IRR. Trong khi tnh IRR, ta xem nh l mt sut sinh li ca cc
dng u t v ti u t ca d n. Nhng li sut thc t s l g? Theo tnh ton trn, gi tr tng lai ca cc dng thu (r=10%) l: 1003. Bn hy t cu hi rng, gi tr vn u t P = 500 tr thnh F = 1003, li sut r cn c l bao nhiu? Ta c th vit: 500 (1+r)3 = 1003 (1+r)3 = 1003 500 = 2,006 Suy ra: (1+r) = 3 2,006 = 1,26 r = 0,26 hay 26% Ngi ta cn gi r = 26% l Sut sinh li ni b hiu chnh. 3.9 Bng tm tt kt qu tnh ton ca cc ch tiu Kt qu cc ch tiu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin nh sau: Sut chit khu Nm NCF NPV 0 (10,000) 684 5,000 20% 1 4,500 (n v tin) 2 3,500 3 2,000 4 1,000 5
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IRR B/C PP ARR 3.10 Ch tiu NPV Gi tr hin ti rng
24% 1.07 2 32% u im Tnh gi tr tin t theo thi gian, tnh n quy m d n, p ng yu cu giu c hn ln, ti a ha ngun ca ci. L ch tiu mnh m, thuyt phc. - C tnh trn dng ngn - C lc khng tnh c do dng ngn lu thay i bt thng - D dn n kt lun sai lm khi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau - Khng tnh n quy m, thi im d n - C tnh n gi tr tin - C nhiu cch xc nh chi ph, dn n kt lun sai - Khng xt quy m v vng i d n - Khng quan tm n Khuyt im - Kh hiu - Kh tm sut chit khu, tc rt kh xc nh chi ph s dng vn. (ln) (nm)
Bng tm tt u khuyt im ca cc ch tiu
IRR Sut sinh li ni b
lu, tc thng tin ni b t d n. - D tnh, d hiu (th hin l phn trm)
BCR (B/C) T s Li ch & Chi ph
t theo thi gian - H tr gii thch cho NPV - Thy c hiu qu ng vn
PPCF
- c s dng nhiu do
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K hon vn ngn lu
d hiu, d tnh ton c ri ro cao
sut sinh li - C th mu thun vi NPV khi so snh d n loi tr nhau.
tnh trn dng - Hu ch vi cc d n
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- Tng i d hiu, d ARR Sut sinh li k ton tnh ton - C da vo dng ngn lu v tnh trn ton b vng i d n - D hiu v da trn li ROI Sut sinh li ca vn u t nhun ch khng rc ri khi phi da trn dng ngn lu - D tnh ton v khng cn tnh gi tr tin t theo thi gian
- Khng quan tm n quy m, tui th d n - C nhiu cch hiu khc nhau - Khng quan tm n quy m, tui th d n - Khng da vo dng ngn lu - D c nhng quan im khc nhau v xc nh vn u t - D c quan im khc nhau v xc nh li nhun (trc hay sau thu)
- D hiu PPNI K hon vn tnh trn li nhun - D tnh ton - c s dng nhiu do chu nh hng ca nn kinh t k hoch.
- Khng quan tm n quy m, tui th d n - Khng da vo dng ngn lu v chit khu - Khng quan tm n sut sinh li - D sai lm khi so snh la chn d n loi tr nhau
HNG DN TRN EXCEL (cc hm NPV, IRR) (i) Hm NPV Bn vo: Excel>Fx>Financial>NPV
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Dng d liu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh NPV nh sau:
So vi phin bn 98, Excel XP ny hi iu mt t. y bng Function chia trn v di, Windows 98 th chia hai bn: bn tri l loi hm (category), bn phi l tn hm (name). C l cng l cch m Microsoft lm mi sn phm 57. H no th cng bm OK c tip bng sau:
57
Ging nh bia hay nc sui ng chai vy thi, nay c ln mai i c cao. Thi trang cng vy, c ht di ri n ngn.
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Khai bo th nht: Rate (sut chit khu) bng cch nhp chut vo sut chit khu ( C1). Khai bo th hai: nh du khi dng ngn lu t nm 1 n nm 5. Nguyn tc l, cha mt nm quay v. Tip theo, a chut ln thanh cng thc, bm du +, nhp chut vo cha dng ngn lu rng u tin (nm 0)/OK.
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Kt qu NPV = 684 xut hin, nt cm ln gi l nt OK. Bm vo vng kt qu ra chn trc , B4. Nhiu bn ch rng Excel d qu, ti sao khng khai bo mt ln cho ht dng tin m phi thm du cng + cho rc ri! Khng bit trong tng lai Microsoft c ci tin g khng nhng ti ngh rng khng th. Bi v nu qut ht c dng tin, th khng c ch quay v. Nu bn qut c dng tin t nm 0 th Excel cng tnh, nhng n s chit khu v nm -1 y! Cc lu khc: Khng phn bit dng ngn lu rng m hay dng, ch gi nguyn tc cha li mt nm quay v. Gi nh dng ngn lu nm th 1: - 3000 th c ngha l, gi tr hin ti ca dng chi ch l: PV = -3000
1 = -2500 (1+ 20%)1
C mt dng ngn lu ca mt nm no bng 0 th vn phi nh (g) vo s 0. V trng, Excel s cho rng dng ngn lu trc nm v sau nm cch nhau ch mt nm, t Excel s tnh sai. Nguyn tc ny cng p dng i vi hm IRR. (ii) Hm IRR Bn vo: Excel>Fx>Financial>IRR Vn dng d liu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh IRR nh sau:
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Ngay c thao tc trn Excel cng gi cho ta mt ngh rng IRR rt d tnh ton, ch cn qut ht dng tin rng (NCF) c mt trong bo co ngn lu d n. l nhng thng tin c t d n, v ch cn da vo m khng cn thm bt c mt thng tin no khc t bn ngoi. Trong khi tnh NPV li phi cn n mt sut chit khu. IV. Lm pht v nh gi d n Lm pht hiu n gin l s mt gi ca ng tin hay l s tng ln trong gi c hng ha lm gim sc mua ca ng tin. Lm pht l hin tng bnh thng, n thng trc trong mi nn kinh t pht trin, tng trng. Ti sao cn thit phi tnh n vn lm pht trong cc d n u t? Mt d n thng ko di nhiu nm, d tnh lm pht cho dng ngn lu l s bo m cho hot ng bnh thng ca d n.
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Gi mt kilgam nguyn liu u vo, chi ph mt gi lao ng thi im 5 nm sau chc chn s khc nhiu so vi hin nay. 4.1 Ch s lm pht Gi nh lm pht (hay tc lm pht) c k hiu l g th ch s lm pht hng nm c tnh nh sau: Ch s lm pht nm 1: = (1+g)0 (1+g) = (1+g)1 Ch s lm pht nm 2: = (1+g)1 (1+g) = (1+g)2 Ch s lm pht nm 3: = (1+g)2 (1+g) = (1+g)3 Ch s lm pht nm n: = (1+g)n-1 (1+g) = (1+g)n
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V d: Bng 12-1: Ch s lm pht v t gi hi oi Tc lm pht trong nc Tc lm pht nc ngoi T gi hi oi hin ti Nm Ch s lm pht trong nc Ch s lm pht nc ngoi Ch s lm pht tng i T gi hi oi k vng 6% 4% 15,000 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 1.06 1.04 1.02 2 1.12 1.08 1.04 3 1.19 1.12 1.06
15,000 15,288 15,582 15,882
Trong , ch s lm pht tng i l t l gia ch s lm pht trong nc v ch s lm pht nc ngoi. Ch s lm pht tng i =
Ch la pha trong n so m t c Ch la pha n ngoa so m t c i
Nu lm pht trong nc cao hn nc ngoi, ch s ny ln hn 1 (>1), t gi hi oi k vng trong tng lai s cao hn. Ngc li, nu lm pht trong nc thp hn nc ngoi, ch s ny s nh hn 1 (<1), t gi hi oi k vng trong tng lai s ngy cng thp i. Xem v d di y. Tc lm pht trong nc Tc lm pht nc ngoi T gi hi oi hin ti Nm Ch s lm pht trong nc Ch s lm pht nc ngoi Ch s lm pht tng i T gi hi oi k vng 6% 8% 15,000 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 15,000 1 1.06 1.08 0.98 14,722 2 1.12 1.17 0.96 14,450 3 1.19 1.26 0.95 14,182
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Ging nh bng tnh gi tr tin t theo thi gian hng dn trn y, bn ct (c nh bng phm F4) tc lm pht v c th, bn copy cho ti trm nm sau.
4.2 Lm pht v dng ngn lu Dng ngn lu danh ngha l dng ngn lu gn vi lm pht, cha ng yu t lm pht. Cng thc tng qut: Ngn lu danh ngha = Ngn lu thc Ch s lm pht Hay: Ngn lu thc =
Nga lu danh ngh n a Ch la pha so m t
Dng ngn lu thc l dng ngn lu cha tnh n (loi tr) yu t lm pht. Vic tnh dng ngn lu thc t dng ngn lu danh ngha thng qua ch s lm pht nh trn cn gi l kh lm pht 58. V d 12.20: Nu lm pht (trong nc) l 6% nm, dng ngn lu danh ngha ca d n i Sinh Vin trong v d trn y s nh sau: Nm NCF thc Ch s lm pht
58
0 (10,000) 1.000
1 5,000 1.060
2 4,500 1.124
3 3,500 1.191
4 2,000 1.262
5 1,000 1.338
Deflation: kh lm pht (Deflation cn c ngha l gim pht).
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NCF danh ngha
(10,000)
5,300
5,056
4,169
2,525
1,338
4.3 Lm pht v sut chit khu Sut chit khu (hay li sut) danh ngha l sut chit khu c tnh n lm pht. t cc k hiu: rN: sut chit khu danh ngha (nominal rate) rR: sut chit khu thc (real rate) g : tc lm pht Cng thc: rN = rR + g + rRg Hay: rR = rN - g (1+rR) Hay: g =
rN rR 1+ rR
V d: Nu rR = 20% v g = 6%, ta c: rN = 20% + 6% + 1,2% = 27,2% 4.4 Lm pht v NPV Nhiu ngi ngh rng gn lm pht vo dng ngn lu s lm thay i NPV. ng nh vy, lm pht lm tng gi tr dng ngn lu do lm tng NPV nu gi cng mt sut chit khu. Tuy nhin, NPV s nh nhau nu chit khu dng ngn lu danh ngha vi sut chit khu danh ngha. NPV danh ngha c tnh trn dng ngn lu danh ngha vi sut chit khu danh ngha. NPV thc c tnh trn dng ngn lu thc vi sut chit khu thc. V d 12.21: Dng sut chit khu danh ngha rN = 27,2% chit khu dng ngn lu danh ngha ca d n i Sinh Vin trn y, ta s c NPV danh ngha nh sau:
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rN Nm NCF thc Ch s lm pht NCF danh ngha NPV danh ngha
27.2% 0 (10,000) 1.000 (10,000) 684 1 5,000 1.060 5,300 2 4,500 1.124 5,056 3 3,500 1.191 4,169 4 2,000 1.262 2,525 5 1,000 1.338 1,338
i chiu li vi NPV thc tnh v d trn: rR Nm NCF thc NPV thc 20% 0 (10,000) 684 1 5,000 2 4,500 3 3,500 4 2,000 5 1,000
S 12-1: Quan h gia cc gi tr danh ngha v thc
Ngn lu thc
Ch s lm pht
Ngn lu danh ngha
Ch s lm pht
NPV danh ngha = NPV thc
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Sut chit khu thc
Thm nh d n u t
V. Sut chit khu tng ca sut chit khu n gin l chi ph c hi ca ng tin. Mt ng s nhn mt nm sau ch bng 0,909 ng ngy hm nay, ch bi v 0,909 ng c c hi tr thnh 1 ng vo mt nm sau, nu sut sinh li d kin l 10% nm. 0,909 (1+10%) = 1 V nh vy: 0,909 =
1 1+ 10%
Nh cp u chng ny, d n ch n gin l vic xem xt vic b ra 1 ng ngy hm nay k vng thu v trong tng lai. Ni cch khc, nhng dng thu ca d n trong tng lai cn phi c tnh v gi tr hin ti. 0,909 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng s thu c mt nm sau. Cha k n yu t thi gian, nu c hi sinh li ca ng tin khng phi l 10% m l 20% chng hn th gi tr hin ti s nh i. 0,833 =
1 1+ 20%
Ngc li, nu c hi sinh li ca ng tin l 5% th gi tr hin ti by gi s l: 0,952 =

1 1+ 5%
Nhng nu bn cho rng ng tin ca mnh khng c c hi sinh li no c, tc sut sinh li bng 0, th qu tht gi tr ca 1 ng s nh nhau vo hai thi im: 1=
1 1+ 0%
Vi tho lun nh nh vy cng gip bn thy c vai tr ca sut chit khu quan trng nh th no trong qu trnh thm nh cc d n u t.
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5.1 Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun Vn ca mt cng ty hay ca mt d n c huy ng t hai ngun: vn ch s hu v vn i vay. Mi ngun vn c mt sut sinh li i hi khc nhau. i vi nh cho vay, yu cu l li sut, i vi vn ch s hu thng c sut sinh li i hi cao hn do ri ro cao hn. Trong trnh t thanh khon, vn ch s hu nm v tr sau cng, khon n vay c u tin nhn trc. Sut chit khu ca mt d n phi c tnh bnh qun ca chi ph s dng cc loi vn, c trng s l cc t l ca tng ngun vn. Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun gia quyn (WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital) c tm tt qua cng thc tng qut nh sau: WACC = %D rD + %E rE Trong , %D : t l n vay %E : rD : rE : sn) Nu c cu vn i vay t nhiu ngun khc nhau c li sut khc nhau v vn ch s hu cng c huy ng t nhiu ngun khc nhau c sut sinh li i hi khc nhau (c phiu u i, c phiu thng), cng thc trn c th khai trin nh sau: WACC = %D1 rD1 + %D2 rD2 + %E1 rE1 + %E2 rE2 Trng hp d n c chu thu thu nhp, chi ph li vay c hch ton vo chi ph trc khi tnh thu, v vy cng thc tng qut WACC c vit li nh sau: WACC = %D rD (1- t%) + %E rE t l vn ch s hu li sut tin vay sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu
(lu l: %D + %E = 100% hay N phi tr + Vn ch s hu = Ti
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Trong , t% l thu sut V d: Mt d n c tng vn u t l 1000, trong huy ng t n vay l: 400 (n v tin) vi li sut 8% nm. Nu sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu l 20% v thu sut l 30% th sut chit khu ca d n s l: WACC = 40% 8% (1 - 30%) + 60% 20% = 2,2% + 12% = 14,2% 5.2 Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu Trong cng thc WACC trn y, cc yu t %D (t l n vay), %E (t l vn ch s hu), rD (li sut tin vay) c th xc nh c. Nhng vn cn li l rE (sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu) s c xc nh nh th no? Vic xc nh rE thng gy ra nhiu tranh ci v c nhng nghin cu, nhng m hnh c xy dng. n nay, m hnh nh gi ti sn vn - CAPM (capital assets pricing model) xut hin t nhng nm 1960, vn c p dng kh rng ri v ph bin nhng nc c nn kinh t th trng pht trin. M hnh CAPM c th hin nh phng trnh sau: rE = rF + Trong : rE: sut sinh li ca c phiu (vn ch s hu), l t l gia thu nhp ca c phiu so vi gi th trng ca c phiu. Trong , thu nhp ca c phiu c hiu bao gm: c tc c chia cng (+) vi mc tng (gim) gi c phiu trn th trng. rF: li sut ca u t khng ri ro (ngi ta thng s dng li sut tri phiu trung hn ca chnh ph), (rM - rF)
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rM:
li sut bnh qun th trng ( M, ngi ta dng sut sinh li S&P 500, c bnh qun gn 3000 cng ty M c c phiu giao dch rng ri trn th trng chng khon),
(b ta): dao ng, tc nhy cm, cng hiu l ri ro ca sut sinh li ca mt cng ty (hay ngnh) no so vi li sut bnh qun th trng, c thng k hi qui s liu ca 5 nm (60 thng) 59. Qua phng trnh CAPM trn ta thy, vi rF khng i, mt s bin ng trong li sut th trng rM s lm thay i rE. S thay i nhanh, chm hay cng chiu, tri chiu gi y s l thuc vo Mi cng ty (hay mi ngnh ngh) c mt h s th hin s dao ng ca rE trc bin ng ca th trng. Nh vy: > 1: < 1: = 1: < 0: = 0: khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) nhanh hn, khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) chm hn, khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) t l nh nhau, khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th ngc li, sut sinh li vn ch s hu s gim (tng) 60. li sut th trng khng nh hng g n sut sinh li vn ch s hu. Ni cch khc, rE bng ng vi li sut khng ri ro rF. Nhng vn ny chng ta s cn tip tc tho lun trong cc dp khc, nhng quyn sch chuyn bit khc. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam hin nay rt kh hoc khng th p dng m hnh CAPM ny,
59 60
khc nhau,
C th hiu v tnh nh l dc (slope) ca hai bin: rE v rM, nghin cu chng 3: Phng php k thut s dng trong phn tch. V d sut sinh li ca c phiu cc cng ty sn xut v kh, phng tin chin tranh.
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n gin v chng ta khng c d liu. Ni cch khc, chng ta vn cha c mt th trng ti chnh hot ng tri chy, cha ni n l hon ho. Xem ph lc cui chng v h s bta ca mt s ngnh ngh v mt s cng ty ni ting ca M. V tit kim thi gian cng giy mc cha c ch cho vic thy bi xem voi, chng ta li phi quay v vi cu hi trc mt: lm sao xc nh c rE khi khng c gi th trng? Mt s tho lun v vn sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu c cp mc 3.1.2 trn y. VI. Cc quan im nh gi d n Trong phm vi ch quyn sch, cc quan im nn kinh t hay quan im chnh ph, quan im phc li x hi hay phn phi, khng c c hi cp. Mc ny ch tho lun vic nh gi d n trn quan im ti chnh, tc quan im ca cc nh u t, c th gm: ch u t v nh cho vay. 6.1 Quan im nh cho vay Nh cho vay thm nh d n da trn dng ngn lu ca tng vn u t, tc xem xt ti tng dng ngn lu chi cho d n (k c phn ng thu) v tng dng ngn lu thu v (k c phn tr cp, tr gi). Quan im nh cho vay cn c gi l quan im tng u t. Theo , cc ngn hng cho vay s xc nh c tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh ca d n, nhu cu cn vay vn cng nh kh nng tr n gc v li vay ca d n. Mc ch xem xt d n l nhm nh gi s an ton ca s vn cho vay. Nhng ti sao nh cho vay li ch cn quan tm n dng ngn lu ca tng u t? n gin v nh cho vay c u tin nhn trc dng thu ca d n m khng c ngha v phi chia s vi ch s hu.
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Ngay c khi d n gp ri ro th trng 61, tng dng thu ca d n ch va bng vi s tin cn tr (n gc v li vay), nh cho vay vn thu phn mnh, mi ri ro dn ht ln vai ch s hu. Sut chit khu s dng tnh NPV theo quan im nh cho vay l chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC), v tng dng ngn lu bao gm hai ngun vn: n vay v vn ch s hu. 6.2 Quan im ch u t Quan im ch u t, cn gi l quan im ch s hu hay quan im c ng, mc ch nhm xem xt gi tr thu nhp rng cn li ca d n so vi nhng g h c c trong trng hp khng thc hin d n. Khc vi quan im nh cho vay, ch s hu khi tnh ton dng ngn lu phi cng vn vay ngn hng vo dng ngn lu vo v tr khon tr li vay v n gc dng ngn lu ra. Ni cch khc, ch u t (ch s hu) quan tm n dng ngn lu rng cn li cho mnh, sau khi thanh ton n vay. Sut chit khu s dng tnh NPV theo quan im ch s hu l chi ph s dng vn (sut sinh li i hi) ca ch s hu, v ch tnh trn dng ngn lu ca ch s hu. Lu l, dng ngn lu ca ch s hu bng (=) dng ngn lu tng u t tr (-) dng ngn lu vay v tr n. V d 12.22: C s liu ca mt d n n gin nh sau: - Vng i d n: 2 nm - Tng vn u t (u nm 1, tc cui nm 0): 1000 (n v tin); trong , vn i vay: 400, li sut 8%, tr u (vn v li) trong 2 nm. - Tng dng ngn lu rng ca d n (cha tnh ngn lu vay v tr n): nm th 1: 800, nm th 2: 600 (n v tin).
61
Business risk (market risk)
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Thm nh d n u t
- Sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu: 20%; thu sut bng khng. Hy thm nh d n theo hai quan im: nh cho vay v ch u t. Trc ht, ta tnh dng ngn lu tr n hng nm ( hng dn phn k thut chit khu dng tin trn y). Nm N u k Li pht sinh Tr n (u): - N gc - Li vay N cui k 400 0 1 400 32 224 192 32 208 2 208 17 224 208 17 0
WACC = 40% 8% + 60% 20% = 3,2% + 12% = 15,2% (i) Nm Tng ngn lu rng NPV vi WACC=15.2% IRR Bo co ngn lu theo quan im tng u t (nh cho vay) 0 -1000 147 27% D n c tng dng chi u t nm 0 l: 1000, tng dng thu (rng) nm 1 l: 800 v nm 2 l: 600. l ngn lu ca tng u t, khng quan tm n c cu ngun vn. (ii) Bo co ngn lu theo quan im ch u t (ch s hu) Nm Tng ngn lu rng 0 -1000 1 800 2 600 1 800 2 600
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Ngn lu vay v tr n Ngn lu ca ch s hu NPV vi rE=20% IRR
400 -600 141 41%
-224 576
-224 376
Vn ch s hu ch chi u t nm 0 l: 600, dng thu (rng) ca ch s hu trong nm 1 l: 576 v nm 2 l: 376. l ngn lu ca ch s hu, ch quan tm n dng ngn lu cn li cho mnh, sau khi tr (-) dng chi tr n. Mt lu c bit l, gi tr NPV chnh lch khng nhiu gia hai quan im nhng i vi IRR th chnh lch kh ln (41%>>27%). Nu gi nh d n s dng 100% vn ch s hu m khng huy ng n vay, dng ngn lu ch s hu bng vi tng ngn lu rng th IRR theo quan im ch s hu cng bng vi IRR theo quan im tng u t, tc ch bng 27%. Nh vy, tc ng by sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu li chnh l yu t n vay (!) Xem khi nim n by ti chnh chng 14. VII. Phn tch ri ro d n C th ni rng bt c d n no, khng t th nhiu cng u c ri ro. Cc nh u t lun hiu r v chp nhn iu ny. Tuy nhin h s quyt nh khng lm, khng phi v s, m cho n chng no h cha bit c kh nng ri ro l bao nhiu. Phn tch ri ro l c lng n ch khng phi khc phc n. Ngi ta ni gim thiu ri ro ch khng ai ni phng trnh ri ro. Tuy nhin, chng ta khng bn v vn ny. V gim thiu hay phng trnh ri ro ng ngha vi lm nh hay khng lm 62.
62
iu ny cng ng trong ngha l ca cuc i: lm ln th khuyt im nhiu, ln thuyn th ln sng, vit nhiu th sai st nhiu. Tt nhin sai st th cn trnh nhng khng nhn ra mnh sai st th mi l iu khng khip.
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Thm nh d n u t
Phn tch ri ro y nhm tr li cu hi, liu vi mc ri ro nh vy, phn thng b p cho n c l tha ng? Mc khc, thi ca mi ngi ng trc ri ro cng khc nhau. Mt ng tng gim c doanh nghip nh nc 59 tui c vi cn bit th ni ngoi thnh, con ci hc nc ngoi, ti khon rng rnh nm by trm ngn -la s t chi mt d n c mc ri ro 15% (gi nh lng ha c nh vy), v c th khng c g, mt th mt ht cng tch ly hng chc nm tri. Trong khi , mc ri ro ny l qu tuyt vi mt gim c tr, nhit tnh, n hc ng hong tui mi trn 29. Bn tip tc hnh dung thi ri ro tng t cng s khc nhau ty thuc vo gii tnh, tn gio, vng min, dn tc v nhng th rt kh nh lng khc na. C th phn bit thnh hai phng php phn tch ri ro: phn tch tt nh v phn tch bt nh. Phn tch tt nh (deterministic) l ch quan cho trc mt gi tr xc nh (v d mt gi bn c th), hi kt qu (v d NPV) s l bao nhiu. Phn tch bt nh, cn gi l phn tch xc sut (probabilistic) hay m phng (simulation), nhng gi tr ca nhn t ri ro s c xut hin mt cch bt nh, ngu nhin khng nh trc. V tt nhin, kt qu cng l nhng gi tr mang tnh ngu nhin. Ging nh tr chi quay s cc sng bc vy. Phng php ny v th cn c tn gi l m phng Monte-Carlo 63. Sau nhiu ln (trm, ngn ln) th, ngi ta thy c cc quy lut (phn phi xc sut). Theo , c bao nhiu phn trm kt qu no ri vo khong no. T nh, xc sut NPV<0 l bao nhiu, chng hn.
63
Monte-Carlo l mt a danh x (cng quc) Monaco, thuc Php. Ging nh Macao, mi y tr v Trung Quc, hay Las Vegas ca M vy, l ni ni ting th gii vi cc sng bc v trung tm gii tr bt tn.
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Thm nh d n u t
7.1 Phn tch tt nh Gm: phn tch nhy v phn tch tnh hung. 7.1.1 7.1.1.1 Phn tch nhy nhy mt chiu Cho mt bin (yu t) c tin on l rt ri ro thay i, hi bin kt qu s thay i nh th no. V d n gin: Phn tch bin ri ro khi lng nh hng n bin kt qu doanh thu. Khi lng Gi bn Doanh thu 1,000 100 100,000
800 100,000 80,000
900 90,000
1,000 100,000
1,100 110,000
1,200 120,000
7.1.1.2 nhy hai chiu Cho hai bin (yu t) c tin on l rt ri ro cng thay i, hi bin kt qu s thay i nh th no. V d n gin: Phn tch hai bin ri ro khi lng v gi c nh hng n bin kt qu doanh thu. Khi lng Gi bn Doanh thu 100,000 80 90 1,000 100 100,000 800 64,000 72,000 900 72,000 81,000 1,000 80,000 90,000 1,100 88,000 99,000 1,200 96,000 108,000
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100 110 120
80,000 88,000 96,000
90,000 99,000 108,000
100,000 110,000 120,000
110,000 121,000 132,000
120,000 132,000 144,000
Thao tc phn tch nhy trn Excel: Cho khi lng thay i trn hng (row), gi bn thay i trn ct (column); t (lin kt cng thc bi du =) doanh thu vo gc tri bn trn ca bng; nh du khi (bi en) bng; ln Data, chn Table, nh sau:
Bm vo thanh Table ta c bng Table; khai bo hng (Row) v ct (Column) nh sau:
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Bm nt OK hon tt:
7.1.2
Phn tch tnh hung Vo Excel, thit k bi ton hoc d n (tt c u c lin kt
cng thc). Bm Tools (cc cng c) >> chn Scenarios ta c bng sau:
Bm nt Add (a vo) trn bng Scenario Manager (thit k kch bn) c bng Add Scenario (a kch bn vo) nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
t tn kch bn (tnh hung); gi phm Ctrl v nhp chut 64 ln lt vo cc chn l cc bin c xem l ri ro, trong v d ny l cc bin: khi lng, gi bn n v, chi ph n v. Bm nt OK 65 c bng Scenario values (cc gi tr kch bn) nh sau:
64 65
Tt nhin ni chut trn nh vy th hiu l "chut tri". Ti thng a vi cc sinh vin rng, c thy nt no "cm" ln l bm ti, t s c. cnh tranh, cc cng ty phn mm lun ci tin cc sn phm ca mnh theo hng ngy cng tin li cho ngi s dng. Bit u mt ngy no Bill Gates li cho ra mt chng trnh Excel bng ting Vit (!). Lc y, bn s khng thy Tools m l Cc Cng C; khng phi l Help m l Gip . Lc y l gip thc s, cn by gi khi bm nt Help bn thy cng rc ri hn l khi cha "gip" (!). Hy tin tng v hy bit ch i. Ch c iu trong lc ch i phi chu kh c bng ting Ty vy.
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Thm nh d n u t
Sau khi nh my cc gi tr (ty bn nh ngha th no l tt, trong v d ny: khi lng: 1200, gi bn n v: 120 v chi ph n v: 60) vo bng, bm nt Add thit k kch bn tip theo,
t tn kch bn mi (theo v d trn l kch bn trung bnh), bm nt OK ri a gi tr vo bng (ty bn nh ngha th no l trung bnh, trong v d ny: khi lng: 1000, gi bn n v: 100 v chi ph n v: 80), nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Li tip tc bm nt Add thit k kch bn tip theo, v c th lm ti. Cui cng (khng mun thm kch bn na) th bm nt OK, ta s thy li bng u tin nhng gi y c cc tn ca cc kch bn c thit k nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Bn c thy nt Show (ch ra) n "cm" ln khng? C a vt xanh (nhp chut) vo kch bn no bn mun ri bm nt Show, kt qu kch bn s hin ra. Trong bng trn y ang ch ra kch bn Tt, vi khi lng 1200, gi bn 120, chi ph n v 60 v li nhun 72,000.
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Thm nh d n u t
By gi bn a vt xanh xung kch bn xu chng hn ri bm nt Show, kt qu s nh sau:
Trong kch bn xu, trc ta nh ngha vi cc thng s: khi lng 800, gi bn 80, chi ph n v 110 v kt qu ch ra l 24,000. Chng trnh Scenario cng cung cp mt bng tm tt cc kch bn. c bng tm tt, dng lnh Summary \ chn Scenerio Summary c bng tm tt kt qu cc kch bn nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Ghi ch (di bng): ct Gi tr hin hnh (gi tr gc) i din cho cc gi tr ca nhng thay i khi bo co tm tt kch bn c thit lp. Cc thay i ca mi kch bn c lm ni bt trong nn mu xm. Bn thy c d dng khng? Chc may mn! 7.2 Phn tch bt nh Khc vi phn tch tt nh, nhng gi tr hay nhng tnh hung c xc nh trc tr li cu hi "nu, th", trong phn tch m phng, cn gi l phn tch xc sut, mi chuyn s hon ton l ngu nhin. Trong khun kh quyn sch ny, cc kin thc cn bn v thng k ton khng c cp, bn ch vic xc nh v khai bo cc bin ri ro ca d n (v d: gi bn, khi lng, lm pht) v cc bin kt qu (v d: NPV v IRR), chng trnh Crystalball s gip bn. y l mt phn mm c uy tn nht phn tch ri ro hin nay. Bn c th ln trang web theo a ch di y c phn mm ny. Thm ch khi bn ng k tr thnh thnh vin ca hi, hng thng hoc ngn hn bn s nhn c nhng thng tin, nhng cp nht, gii thiu sch mi xut bn hay c chia s kinh nghim g y v phn tch m phng. Cng c khi nhn thng bo mi tham d mt kha hun luyn ngn hn (2 ngy) v phn tch ri ro, vi hc ph gn c ngn bng Anh y (!) 66. From: "Decisioneering Newsletter" <newsletter@crystalball.com> To: "Nguyen Tan Binh" <tanbinh@hcm.vnn.vn> Subject: Tomorrow's Forecast Newsletter - Issue #91
66
Cch khc, nu TP. HCM, bn c th n ng Tn Tht Tng v mang theo vi ngn ng (VND) ung c ph. Khng bit t bao gi, nhng ngi bn tr gii giang v tt bng li t tp v con ng c nhng hng me y th mng ny, h sn sng tip n nng hu v gip bn mt cch tn tnh. Bn ch cn h ng khu lnh: Crystal Ball. Chc bn toi nguyn.
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Date: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:57 PM www.crystalball.com To Nguyen Tan Binh: You are now receiving the HTML version of our newsletter. If you do not see the top banner or any images or large and colored fonts, then your e-mail program is not set to receive a full HTML newsletter. We are still publishing a plain text version, and if you would like to switch to that format, click on this link (http://www.crystalball.com/newsletter_list.html) You can also view this HTML newsletter online at http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter91.html Sau khi gi t Crystalball thnh cng, qu cu pha l xut hin thong qua trn mn hnh Excel v trn thanh cng c xut hin thm Cell, Run v CBTools (phin bn Crystalball 97 khng c CBTools).
V d: Phn tch m phng ri ro ca d n Ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin, nh sau:
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Thm nh d n u t
Bin ri ro (d kin c nhiu bin ng trong thc t) c xc nh trong v d ny l: vn u t nm 0 v dng ngn lu rng nm 1. Bin kt qu (bin d bo) l NPV. Bc 1: Trc tin, khai bo bin ri ro (bin gi thit) bng cch t chut vo cha bin ri ro, theo v d l B3. Ln Cell >> chn Define Assumption (xc nh bin ri ro).
Bm thanh Define Assumption, ta c bng sau:
Bng ny c nhiu phn phi xc sut ta chn. V d ta chn phn phi bnh thng (tc phn phi chun - normal distribution) >> OK, ta c bng tip theo:
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Thm nh d n u t
Bng ny cho ta gi tr trung bnh (Mean) v mc nh lch chun (Std Dev: Standard Deviation) l 10% so vi gi tr trung bnh. Tt nhin ta c th thay i theo mun. Bm OK kt thc khai bo. Tng t, tip tc khai bo cho cc bin ri ro tip theo (nhiu bin cng c). Vi phin bn Crystalball 2000, sau khi khai bo, cha bin ri ro s t ng t nn mu xanh l cy. Bc 2: Tip theo, khai bo bin kt qu (bin d bo) bng cch t chut vo cha bin d bo, theo v d l B4. Ln Cell >> chn Define Forecast (xc nh bin d bo), nh sau:
Bm thanh Define Forecast, ta c bng sau:
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t tn bin, n v tnh (nu cn) >> bm OK hon tt khai bo. C th chn nhiu bin d bo, v d chn thm bin d bo l IRR chng hn. Vi phin bn Crystalball 2000, sau khi khai bo, cha bin d bo s t ng t nn mu xanh dng. Bc 3: Ln Run >> chn Run Preferences, nh s ln chy m phng, v d ny l 1000 ln. tin cy mc nh l 95% (tt nhin bn c th chn mc tin cy khc: cao hoc thp hn).
Bm OK. Ln li Run >> bm Run. Chng trnh Crystalball bt u chy m phng. Mi ln m phng, mt gi tr ca bin ri ro s xut hin mt cch ngu nhin, v kt qu NPV s c tnh li v cho ra mt gi tr. Chng trnh thc hin 1000 ln nh vy (mt
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Thm nh d n u t
vi pht hoc lu hn ty vo tc my tnh ca bn v ty vo sc nng ca bi ton hay d n). Sau khi chy m phng xong, ta c bng sau:
Nt c hnh tam gic
y l bng bo co u tin do chng trnh Crystalball cung cp sau khi thc hin 1000 ln m phng (1000 trials). Lm g vi bng ny y? hng di cng bn s thy khong bin thin t tr v cc (Infinity) n cng v cc (+Infinity), c th gi tr NPV thp nht l: 2089 (n v tin) v cao nht l: 3383 (xem ch hai tam gic nh hai u trc honh). Tt nhin xc sut NPV ri vo khong ny chc chn phi l 100% (xem Certainly = 100%). Ging nh bn on tui c bn gi mi quen vy. Nu bn on khong t 15 n 51
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Thm nh d n u t
th chc chn 100% s trng, nhng bn on khong 26, 27 g th xc sut trng s thp hn (nu khng c thng tin no thm!). Nhng kiu on tui chc trng 100%, tc tin cy cao nh trn th chng cn ngha g na c, thm ch mt bn y! Bc 4: Hi Crystalball tr li. V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV <0 l bao nhiu? tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam gic bn phi v bn tri cho n khi cn phi bng 0. Bn s c thy xc sut ny l 25.42%. di chuyn, bn bm v gi chut vo nt tam gic ri ko n ni bn mun.
V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV >0 l bao nhiu? tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam gic bn tri v bn phi cho n khi cn tri bng 0. Bn s c thy xc sut ny l 74.58%, nh bng di y.
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Thm nh d n u t
V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV t gi tr trong khong t 505 n 2319 l bao nhiu? tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam gic bn tri v bn phi cho n khi cn tri bng 505; v di chuyn tam gic bn phi v bn tri cho n khi cn phi bng 2319. Bn s c thy xc sut ny l 50%, nh bng di y.
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Tng t, bn c tip tc hi v c di chuyn tam gic n ni cn thit. Nhng khng phi ch c th, Crystalball cn cung cp cho bn nhng bo co, nhng tm tt cc thng s m t thng k, nhng th a dng theo mun. Bn hy c vo ca hng mc sc m chn.
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Hay mc tng quan (Correlation) gia cc bin ri ro i vi bin kt qu.
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PH LC: H S BETA () CA MT S CNG TY V NGNH KINH DOANH M H S BETA () NGNH NGNH * Khch sn v dch v (9) Hng khng (8) My tnh (10) Dng c y t (53) Thit b in (43) May mc (25) Ca hng bn l (74) Thit b vin thng (17) Ngn hng (99) Chm sc sc khe - y t (64) Thc phm (44) My nng c (4) Du kh, m phm (31) Vng bc qu (6) 1.55 1.48 1.48 1.42 1.40 1.37 1.23 1.27 1.12 1.02 0.86 0.83 0.72 0.54 H S BETA () CNG TY CNG TY Cng ty my tnh Apple Cng ty vin thng McCaw Hng khng Alaska Hewlett Packard Timberland Microsoft Time Warner Ngn hng BankAmerica General Motor Boeing AT & T Cng ty in lc Duke Cng ty in lc Allegheny Cng ty cng ch San Diego 1.52 1.50 1.44 1.34 1.30 1.24 1.19 1.19 1.03 0.96 0.88 0.44 0.36 0.32
Dch v tit kim, cho vay (13) 1.45
Dch v y t Columbia-HCA 1.28
(*) S trong ngoc l s lng cc cng ty trong ngnh. Ngun: Investment Data Book, thng 7/1994; Nh xut bn: Vestek Systems-San Francisco. T kho: D n, dng tin, c hi, ri ro, chit khu, li sut, gi tr hin ti, gi tr tng lai, thi gain hon vn, xc sut.
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5/18/2009

Tham Dinh Du An Dau Tu

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Copyright:

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Tham Dinh Du An Dau Tu

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THM NH D N U T

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

cng thc (1)

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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

450 7,5% 1,075 0,07232 S nm cn thit (nm) 62 57 56 25

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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

2.2 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng T cng thc (1) ta suy ra:

Nh l tri th bm mt ln, m tri th bm ba ln nt F4. Vy l m th kh hn?

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cng thc (2)

Trong , r: sut chit khu 24 Hoc c th vit cch khc: PV = FV

d dng thy c trong ,

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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

2.3 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng u nhau Cng thc 27: FVA = A

cng thc (3)

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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

(1+ r )20 1 31,17= 1,5 r

cng thc (4)

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Ch khng phi l: 500 5 = 2500!

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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH

1000 1, 1000 10% 5 0 -

1000 1,1 1100

1,21 1,331 1,464 1210 1331 1464

Cng 3,791 3791

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V PVA s c vit n gin nh sau PVA =

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Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh:

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S dng hm Nper trn Excel:

Nper: number of period: s k on.

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Pmt: payment: tr Pmt: payment: tr

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Kt qu: n = 45 thng Nu li sut 12% nm (tc 1% thng) th thi gian tr lng l:

Bn ch cn a chut vo B1 v nh 12%, s thng s thay i thnh 51 thng nh trn.

Li tha vui cng bn,

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Nghin cu chng 14.

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Hoc c th vit cho gn hn: NPV = Trong , i: r: n: PV : Bi : Ci : (Bi Ci) :

PV (Bi Ci) : gi tr hin ti rng ca nm th i

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