Te@m 6 - Banking 50cd - NEU

Phm

c Mnh Khc Th Anh L Th H Trn Ngc H Trnh Th Luyn Phm Th Ngc Anh

H Th Hoi Trn S Khim Lm Tng H Hng Chanh Lang Th Thu Trang L Th Dung Hong Th Hng

Cc nn kinh t ng trc khng hong

Din bin

Nguyn nhn

Tc ng v bi hc kinh nghim vi Vit Nam

Cc nn kinh t ng trc khng hong

Mi trng kinh t v m n nh

T l tit kim v u t cao

Ngun nhn lc c cht lng cao B my hnh chnh i ng theo nng lc

Tng tit kim v u t trong nc trc khng hong

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Tng tit kim trong nc/GDP (%) Tng u t trong nc/GDP (%)

Cc nn kinh t ng trc khng hong

Bt bnh ng thu nhp thp

y mnh xut khu

Cng nghip ha thnh cng

FDI v chuyn giao cng ngh

T l lung vn gin tip so vi GDP

Nm Han Quc Thai Lan Indonesia Philippine Malaysia Trung Quc

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

0.79 1.61 3.17 2.14 3.04 4.37 2.78

-0.08 0.83 4.36 1.72 2.43 1.98 2.80

-0.01 -0.07 1.14 2.19 2.04 2.20 -1.23

0.28 0.29 1.65 1.41 3.53 6.14 0.67

0.35 -1.92 -1.10 -2.28 -0.50

0.14 0.08 0.61 0.73 0.10 0.29 0.85

Hn Quc, Indonesia, Philippine , Thi Lan l nhng nc nhn c lung vn gin tip chy vo rt ln trc khng hong trong khi Trung Quc v Malaysia th khng

Mc gia tng hng nm khi lng vay n khu vc t nhn

Nc Hn Indo Malay Phip Sin Thai Hongkong Trung i loan 1992 12.5 12.2 10.8 24.6 9.7 20.5 10.1 28.7 28.7 1993 12.9 12.9 10.8 40.7 15.1 24.0 20.1 19.0 19.0 1994 20.1 20.1 16.0 26.4 15.2 30.2 19.9 16.5 16.5 1995 15.4 15.4 60.3 45.4 20.2 23.7 10.9 9.5 9.5 1996 20.0 21.4 20.2 20.2 15.8 14.6 15.7 6.6 6.6

Vic khng lm ch c qu trnh m ca tip nhn vn nc ngoi. Khi lng vay n ca t nhn tng mnh, c cu n b bin i theo mt chiu hng cc k nguy him: T trng n ngn hn bng ngoi t tng mnh Ngun cung ng ti chnh d tha dn n u t qu mc v li nhun u t c v gim i

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Din bin
Thi Lan Hn Quc

Indonesia

Philippine

Hong Kong

Company Logo

Thi Lan
Cui 1996, nn kinh t Thi Lan tng trng qu nng Ngy 14/5-15/5/1997, ng THB b tn cng u c quy m ln 2/7/1997, th ni ng baht, ngay lp tc Baht mt gi 20%

Bin ng t gi USD/THB
40 30 20 10 0 2--7 19--8 21--8 3--9
25.8

32.7

34.25

37.85

2/7, ng baht c th ni 19/8, ni cc Thi chp nhn m phn vi IMF 21/8, IMF ng ph duyt chng trnh 3/9, Finance One s khng thanh ton li vay
50 40 30 20
25.16 24.93 25.36 31.07 41.32 37.88 40.22

10
0

Thi Lan
Finance One, cng ty ti chnh ln nht ca Thi Lan b ph sn 11/8/1997, IMF tuyn b s cung cp mt gi cu tr tr gi 16 t dollar M cho Thi Lan 20/8/1997, IMF thng qua mt gi cu tr na tr gi 3,9 t dollar

Trn th trng chng

1995 SET-Index 1280 1997 372

khon, mc vn ha th trng v ch s th trng chng khon u gim i

Mc vn ha th trng(t USD)

141.5

23.5

Hn Quc
Thng 11 cc nh u t bt u bn ra chng khon ca Hn Quc quy m ln
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

USD/KRW
1404 1190 1131 807 773 805

TTCK Hn Quc st gim

mnh hn, gim 4% vo 7/11/1997, gim tip 7% vo ngy 8/11 v 7.2% vo ngy 24/11/1997

954

Hn Quc
Daewoo Motors phi bn
li cho General Motors Qu u t mo him tr gi 5 t USD ca Samsung cng gii th do tc ng qu mnh ca cuc khng hong

Indonesia
Thng 7, ni rng bin dao ng ca t gi USD/IDR t 8% ln 12% Thng 8, ng Rupiah b gii u c tn cng

Indonesia
14/8, ch t gi hi oi th ni c qun l c thay

th bng ch th ni hon ton. ng Rupiah lin tc

mt gi Trc khng hong, t gi USD/IDR=2000, trong thi k khng hong, t gi tng ln 18.000 IMF vin tr ti chnh khn cp cho Indonesia 23 t Dollar

Philippine
3/7/1997, NHTW nng li

sut ngn hn (cho vay qua

m) t 15% ln 24% Ngy 11/7, th ni PHP Khng hong chnh tr lin quan ti cc v b bi ca tng thng Joseph Estrada

Philippine
Nm 2001, PSE-Index gim xung cn

khong 1000 im t mc cao khong

3000 im hi nm 1997 ng peso mt gi t 26peso/1 USD trc khng hong xung 38 peso/1 USD vo nm 2000

Hng Kng
C quan Tin t Hong Kong chi hn 1 t USD bo v ng tin ca mnh Ngy 20 /10 n 23 /10, Ch s Hang Seng gim 23%

Ngy 15 /8 /1998, Hong Kong nng li sut cho vay qua m t 8% ln thnh 23% v ngay lp tc nng vt ln 500%

Hng Kng
C quan Tin t HongKong bt u mua vo cc loi c phiu thnh

phn ca Ch s Hang Seng gim

p lc gim gi c phiu

Chnh quyn mua vo khong 120 t Dollar Hong Kong (tng ng 15 t Dollar M) cc loi chng khon

Nguyn nhn trc tip

S rt lui t ca cc lung ti chnh nc ngoi Cc hot ng u c tin t Tnh hnh chnh tr x hi khng n nh vo nhng thi im nhy cm Phn ng chm chp ca cng ng quc t: Nht Bn ng gp hn ch vo cc gi cu tr, M lc u th Bin php khc phc tnh hnh v liu php km hiu qu ca IMF

Nguyn nhn su xa
Thm ht ti khon vng lai ln

nh gi qu cao ng bn t

Nguyn nhn chung c bn

Cng tc gim st ngn hng v phi ngn hng yu km

Cc lung vn ngn hn vo qu nhiu

Tnh thin cn ca nh u t v chuyn gia

Company Logo

Thm ht ti khon vng lai ln

Tai sao trc khi khng hong xy ra CP cc nc lai khng lo lng nhiu v tinh trang thm hut ti khon vang lai ln?

Tnh thin cn ca nh u t v chuyn gia

Ti sao i tc cho vay trong nc v quc t li chp nhn cp ti chnh cho cc d n c kh nng sinh li khng chc chn m chng cn c nhng s m bo y ? Ti sao cc cng ty nh gi h s tn nhim li hon ton khng nhn thy nhng iu ang ti v n u nm 1997 vn nh gi rt cao cc nc ny?

Tt c mi ngi khng c c thng tin y v tnh hnh thc t Gii quan st chi vi gia cc ngun thng tin khc nhau

2
Nc

Tnh thin cn ca nh u t v chuyn gia

Mc tng gdp Lm pht Thng d cn cn vng lai (%GDP) Thng d khi hnh chnh (%GDP)

Hn Quc Indonesia Thi Lan Malaysia

7.1 8.0 5.5 8.6

4.5 6.6 4.8 3.3

-4.7 -3.4 -8.1 -4.9

0 0.6 2.2 4.0

Nim tin vo s diu k chu . Tng trng vn mc rt cao. Lm pht c kim sot v nn ti chnh cng nhn chung c v ht sc lnh mnh, mi nc c mc tit kim quc gia u cao

Thi d di ca NHTG khi thc hin nghip v cho vay khu vc ny, phn tch hi ht cc ch s kinh t c bn ch khng chu thc s kim tra k kh nng thanh ton ca cc con n ca mnh

Ch t gi hi oi c nh vo USD

Chu k kinh doanh chu c mi lin h mt thit vi chu k t gi ng Yn so vi USD Cc nc Chu c quan h thng mi mnh vi Nht Bn Khi ng yn ln gi, t nm 1993 n T4/1995: bng n chu Khi ng yn gim gi, t T4/1995 n nm 1997: hot ng kinh t b nh tr

Cng tc gim st NH v phi NH yu km Thi Lan: h tr thanh khon ln c cp cho cc cng ty ti chnh nhng khng mang li hiu qu Indonesia: t l cho vay khng hiu qu l 25% v t l n kh i l 9% tng d n Nht Bn: $630 t n kh i (15% tng d n)

Phn ln cc khon tn dng c th chp bng BS, nn khi th trng BS sp do cung vt qu cu, hng t USD tin vn vay ca NH b ng, nhiu NH v cng ty ti chnh lm vo tnh cnh thua l, nguy c ph sn

Cuc khng hong song sinh Ngn hng v Tin t

Cc lung vn ngn hn vo qu nhiu

Khi lung vn l do cng c ngn hn cung cp (CD, Chng khon Ngn hn) v cc cng c phi sinh khc th kh nng thanh khon c nguy c tr nn ng lo ngi T s cho vay ngn hn ca NH so vi d tr ngoi t Hn Quc (hn 2),

Thi Lan, Indonesia (hn 1), cho

thy s nng n trong ngha v tr n ngn hn

Qun l sai lm d tr ngoi t (Thi Lan v Hn Quc)

C kh nng thc hin nng vn cho cc t chc ti chnh gp kh khn, l cng c mnh m ng u vi cc th on u c

Ngun ti chnh cng Thi Lan (1996): N nc ngoi 10% GDP

D tr ngoi t rt ln (gn 40 t
USD, hn 20% GDP)

Kh nng thnh cng rt ln

Ph gi mc va phi Chnh sch tin t tht cht C cu li khu vc NH

Qun l sai lm d tr ngoi t (Thi Lan v Hn Quc)

Thc t: Bo v t gi n khi gn cn kit ngun d tr ngoi t Khng c cu NH Thay v x l ph gi ni t trong iu kin thun li, vic thiu ngun d tr buc CP p dng th ni c qun l (ti)

Ma thu 1997 Hn Quc cng la chn chin thut mo him ht nh Thi Lan: kin quyt bo v t gi ban u ri li phi th ni, nhng n khi th khng cn d tr ngoi t tc ng mnh n qu trnh iu chnh ca th trng ngoi hi

Vay bng ngoi t gia cc NH qu nhiu (Thi Lan v HQ)

Chnh sch c nh t gi hi oi so vi USD khuyn khch cc cty v NH tch t ti sn n bng USD (li sut vay bng USD thp hn li sut vay bng bn t) Khi cc ng bn t mt gi lm tn hi bng tng kt ti sn

Trnh qun l doanh nghip yu km (HQ v Indonesia)

Cc tp on ln Hn Quc m rng phm vi kinh doanh sang

nhng ngnh khng c li th so snh

Doanh nghip Indonesia vay vn trc tip t nc ngoi m khng qun l c nhng ri ro tin t

S thin lch gia chnh sch ti kha v tin t (Nht Bn)

p dng chnh sch ti kha cht ch duy tr mc thu rt cao nhm m bo ngn sch thng d

Do thu cao lm gim li nhun kinh doanh, nn duy tr chnh sch li sut thp b li

Tiu dng ni a yu, nn kinh t l thuc nhiu vo bn ngoi

S ly lan mnh m
Mi lin kt thng mi: cc quc gia trao i cnh tranh trn th trng XK vi cc nc gp khng hong cng phi ph gi ng tin cnh tranh c Mi lin kt ti chnh: cc NT cn i li danh mc u t sau khi thua l ti nc gp khng hong, i khi NT phi bn ti sn thanh ton tin bo chng S thay i tm l u t: s gim gi ca ng baht nh hng ti nim tin ca NT th trng Chu

S ly lan mnh m

S tm tt cuc khng hong ng

H thng ti chnh ni a Tp trung vo NH Gim st yu km Tm l li Dng vn nc ngoi chy vo N mnh gi ngoi t v k hn ngn gia tng Chnh sch kinh t v m T gi hi oi c nh

Phn b vn sai lch u t qu mc Bong bng gi ti sn Tham nhng Tnh hnh ti chnh T l n kh i cao Mt cn xng v k hn gia ti sn n v ti sn c

Tnh hnh kinh t v m T gi hi oi thc b nng gi Thm ht thng mi gia tng

Khng hong Tn cng u c Vn chy ra ngoi NH v DN ph sn

Tc ng ca khng hong
Tc ng n kinh t TG: Lm sp th trng chng khon, mt gi tin t, gim gi ti sn cc nc Chu Tc tng trng kinh t th gii gim, nm 1997 3.8%, nm 1998 ch cn 2% (IMF) Suy gim cc lung chu chuyn vn t nhn vo cc nn kinh t ang ni ln, nm 1997 gim 70 t USD so vi 1996 i hng cc lung ti chnh quc t lm cho li sut trung di hn cc nc cng nghip gim mnh

Tc ng ca khng hong
Tht nghip: Indonesia: s ngi mt vic 12% 1998 so vi 4% nm 1996 Thi Lan: 6% so vi 2 % nm 1996 Hn Quc: s ngi b mt vic trong 1997 tng 3 ln so vi nhng nm trc Nht: T9/1998: t l tht nghip ln ti 4.3% Thu nhp dn c gim st nghim trng do lm pht tng, cc cng ty gim lng, thng v ph cp An ninh lng thc: gim kh nng sx v cung cp d tr lng thc thc phm cho ngi dn.

Tc ng ca khng hong
Mt n nh chnh tr: Th tng Thi Lan Chavalit t chc T11/1997. Tng thng Kim Young Sam HQ tht bi trong cuc ti c tng thng Tng thng Suharto Indonesia t chc

Tc ng tch cc

Chuyn sang chnh sch t gi linh hot tng lng gi tr ngoi t, khuyn khch xk.

To sc p buc cc ch u t kinh doanh phi thay i thch ng vi tnh hnh mi

To ra nhng xung lc tch cc cho s pht trin kt-xh.

Tc ng ti Vit Nam
Tc pht trin kinh t chm li: GDP qua cc nm
1995 9,5% 1996 9,3% 1997 8,8% 1998 6,3%

Tc ng xu n DN lm n vi cc nc khng hong, chi ph u vo tng v USD ln gi, xut khu gim Gim tin hoc hon nhiu d n u t vo Vit Nam, thu ht ODA kh khn hn Lng khch du lch, vn ti hng khng gim Sc p gim gi VND trn th trng hi oi, nh hng c cu gi tin ti h thng NH, giao dch ngoi t gim st, sc p tng li sut VND

V chnh sch pht trin kinh t

V chnh sch pht trin kinh t

Tng trng phi hng mnh vo hiu qu Khi yu t u vo khng cn sn th nng sut nn kinh t gim dn Cn nng cao hiu qu sn xut, i mi k thut, nghin cu trin khai nng cao hm lng cng ngh Tng trng phi bo m duy tr c cc cn i v m ca nn kinh t

V chnh sch pht trin kinh t

Tng trng phi da vo ni lc l chnh Nu da qu nhiu vo vn bn ngoi s kch thch tm l tiu dng, gim thc kinh doanh ca nhn dn, gim ng lc pht trin kinh t u tin pht trin DN va v nh i Loan ch yu da vo Dn va v nh, linh hot, d thch nghi thay i, nn trnh c nhng chn ng ln v kinh t

V chnh sch pht trin kinh t

Tng cng h thng c ch kinh t ng mc, h thng TC-NH v h thng thng tin H thng TC-NH: tng cng kim tra kim ton gim st thc hin cng khai thng tin, cht lng tn dng phi c nng cao.

Chnh sch thng tin: Thng tin nhanh nhy chnh xc l rt cn thit, gip gii ta tm l nghi ng, hn ch tin n tht thit gy tm l u c

V chnh sch pht trin kinh t

Phi x l tt tnh trng bong bng kinh t Hng u tin vo khu vc sn xut Kim sot tt cc khon tn dng NH i vi cc khu vc BS v Chng khon Qun l cht ch, iu tit hot ng u c

V chnh sch kinh t i ngoi

V chnh sch kinh t i ngoi

Nhy cm v ch ng i vi cc thay i v chnh sch v nhng bin ng trn th trng th gii Chnh sch a dng ha thng mi: a dng ha cc mt hng v hng mnh vo cc mt hng c gi tr gia tng cao a dng ha th trng v hng mnh vo cc th trng n nh c sc mua ln

V chnh sch kinh t i ngoi

Qun l cht ch cc ngun vn bn ngoi Hn ch nht nh c bit l lung vn ngn hn c tnh u c C chin lc v bin php qun l v s dng vn vay (ODA, ngn hn, di hn) hiu qu, v m bo tr vn vay ng thi hn. Chnh sch t gi Chnh sch t gi cn phi linh hot, c iu chnh thng xuyn theo quan h cung cu v st gi th trng, iu chnh t t, trnh ph gi t ngt