CRASH PRONE TRAFFIC FLOW DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION AND REAL-TIME DETECTION ATHESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY JOHN N. HOURDOS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY NOVEMBER 2005UMI Number: 3194325 Copyright 2005 by Hourdos, John N. All rights reserved INFORMATION TO USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality ilustrations and photographs, print bleed-through, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscrist and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized ‘copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion UMI UMI Microform 3194325 Copyright 2008 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 ‘Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346© John Hourdos 2005UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA This is to certify that I have examined this copy of a doctoral dissertation by Jobn N. Hourdos and have found that it is complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any an all revisions required by the final examining committee have been made. Faculty Advisers Panos G. Michalopoulos, Professor Gary A. Davis, Professor / —v— Lh, / November 7, 2005 GRADUATE SCHOOLCRASH PRONE TRAFFIC FLOW DYNAMICS: IDE AND REAL-TIME DETECTION By John N. Hourdos Under the supervision of Professors Panos Michalopoulos and Gary Davis ABSTRACT In 1997 the US Department of Transportation and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) suggested that “the word accident promotes the concept that these events are outside of human influence or control”; whereas, “motor vehicle crashes and injuries are predictable, preventable events”. Events which we can identify their causes and take action to avoid them. Regardless of the terminology one wishes to adapt, highway safety is of paramount concern as evidenced in recent major R&D initiatives by the US DOT, FHWA, as well as state DOTs. Recent national statistics indicate that in 2002 6,316,000 vehicle crashes resulted in 42,815 deaths and 2,926,000 injuries. In Minnesota 94,969 crashes caused 657 deaths and 40,677 injuries; this includes 13,336 crashes on freeways alone at an estimated cost of $86,684,000 excluding death, injury and congestion costs which are also of the same or higher order of magnitude. Traditional measures to reduce crashes include improved geometric design, congestion management strategies, as well as better driver education and enforcement, While such measures can be effective they are often not feasible or prohibitively expensive to implement. This realization along with the increasing need to reduce crashes and their side effects has recently Jed to proactive approaches in order to avoid their occurrence in the first place One of the most promising options gaining wide acceptance in recent years is the concept of detecting crash prone flow conditions in real-time and warning drivers when the probability of a crash is high in order to increase their attentiveness thereby reducing the number of crashes. Evidence suggests that when driver attentiveness increases, crashes decline in spite of poor driving and environmental conditions. However research in identification and detection of crash prone traffic conditions is embryonic; for example, demonstration that such conditions actually exist is still lacking let alone a methodology for effective detection and system deployment. The research effort presented in this document aimed in detecting traffic flow conditions associated with increased crash probabilities as well as a general methodology for identifying the crash mechanism. In order to study this problem the highest crash occurrence freeway section in the state was selected for observations and instrumented with a unique array of sensors and surveillance equipment. Several state of the art detection and surveillance stations were designed, assembled, and deployed generating an unparalleled database of detailed traffic measurements as well as the recording of crashes in progress (visual and quantitative). Based on this “complete” view of the problem we were able to identify real-time measurements that reliably describe crash prone traffic conditions as well as determine the individual causes of such conditions. The results can be used in the design and deployment of driver warning systems as well as other active measures aimed at reducing tisk in high crash areas,ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to thank my advisors Panos Michalopoulos and Gary Davis for all of their assistance and guidance in this work. Their help was crucial in getting me through this observational/computational hybrid dissertation. Thanks also to the rest of my thesis committee of Max Donath, David Levinson, and Nikos Papanikolopoulos for theit help and support. This work would not have been possible without all of the resources that were made available to me. The ITS Lab of the Center of Transportation Studies provided the means and the infrastructure that supported the new and complicated instrumentation necessary for this project. In particular, I would like to thank Ted Morris, Laboratory Manager of the ITS lab, for assisting in the design, construction, and development of the detection and surveillance stations. May he never get tired in keeping them alive for others to use. I also want to thank Kyle Wood who put much more into the project than his undergraduate part-time work demanded. I am also grateful to the ITS Institute for its continuing support of my research through my advisors’ grants. I would also like to thank my fellow graduate students, Vishnu Garg and Wuping Xin, for all of their help and support. Vishnu especially saved me valuable time by watching all the traffic video in search of the ever elusive collision or near-miss. Also I like to thank all the graduate students who were unfortunate having me as a supervisor during the very stressful final two years of this work. I apologize for all the trouble. Lastly, but not least I would like to thank my family for all of their support and encouragement. I have to thank my parents, Nikolaos who left us early but never in spirit, and Mary for not giving up on me and pushed me to learn. Especially, my mother endured a lot making sure I never missed anything good in life. iiTo my mother for her patience, love, and support even from far away, iitFOREWORD In research you always learn as you go. It would have been convenient but false to claim that we entered this study with a well defined strategy on how to accomplish our task. ‘The process was developed during the course of the study and was being refined up to the last minute, If we were to describe the study as it happened, this document would turn into a series of novels bigger than Asimov's Foundation series, Instead, the process will be presented in a structured, organized way aimed at assisting interested readers who wish to repeat it or replicate it in this or other high crash locations. I would like to caution the reader to think hard on his/her definition of crash-prone traffic conditions. Although, I provide in this document my own definition, it was largely made to fit the chosen type of analysis followed. In chapter 6 there are hints for other types of analysis based on broader definitions of what constitutes a crash-prone traffic condition. Additionally, the tests of the statistical models/algorithms presented in chapter 7 are made under very strict ground truth rules but if one chooses to replicate some of the tests, I would advise to pay attention to the areas with high false alarms and search there for the reason. Unfortunately, I had no time doing this during the work described in this document. Like Asimov's books, the story is not (never) over.