NGUYN KHNH DUY Ging vin Khoa Kinh t Pht Trin Trng H Kinh t TPHCM

BI GING
(Bn tho ln 1)

THC HNH M HNH CU TRC TUYN TNH (SEM) VI PHN MM AMOS Chi-square= 1595.832
df= 1007 P-value= .000 Chi-square/df= 1.585 TLI= .915 CFI= .921 IFI=.922 RMSEA= .053

e28 e29 e30 e31 e32

gts1 gts2 gts3 gts4 gts5 gts6 lrs1 lrs2 lrs3 lrs4 gss7 gss8

.77 .79 .77 .76 .63

gts

.40
e33 e24 e25 e26 e27 e37 e38

.72

.54
.65
z1
.72 .80 .82 .75

gqs6 gqs5 gqs4

e9 e8 e7 e6 e5 e4 e3 e2 e1

.67 .66 .75 .78 .86

.66

.20
.79

lrs
.50

gs_gqs

.15 .32
.73 .34
z2

.73 .74 gss6 .76 .79 gss5 .80

gss4 gss2 gss1

gqs3

cfls
.88 .69 .82 .67

.69 .54

.41

e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15

lcs1 lcs2

.63 .71 .67 cgss1

lcs5 cgss4 cos1 cos2 cos3 cos4 cos5

lcs3

lcs
.59

.69

.24 .50
.46

.79

oss3 oss2 oss1

e41 40 e39

oss

.77
.79

.90 .92

.36

e16 e17 e18 e19 e20 e21 e22 e23 e34 e35 e36

.84
.74
.76 .72 .77

.21

-.11

z3 .81
.95 .95

ls1 ls2 ls3 ls4 ls5 ls6

e42 e43 e44 e45 e46 e47

.38

.80 .81 cos6 .83

cos7 cos8 aws1

cs

ls
.88 .87 .65

.60

.46
.71

.69 aws2 .78

aws3

Thng 5/2009 TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM (Lu hnh ni b)

aws

LI NI U M hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) c cc nh nghin cu trn th gii s dng t rt lu. Vit Nam, khong t nm 2000 tr li y, SEM c nhiu nh nghin cu s dng trong cc cng trnh nghin cu hn lm, cng nh cc nghin cu ng dng phc v cc chng trnh t vn doanh nghip, t vn chnh sch cho cc Tnh/thnh ph. Gn y, vic hc tp / p dng m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) ni ring cng nh cc k thut phn tch nh lng ni chung trong kinh t, qun tr kinh doanh, ti chnhngn hng c ng o bn tr gm sinh vin i hc, hc vin cao hc, nghin cu sinh quan tm gii quyt tt nht nhng mc tiu nghin cu t ra. Bi ging ny nhm h tr cc bn bc u tip cn SEM di gc thc hnh vi phn mm AMOS c d dng hn, nhanh chng hn m trc mt l lm ti liu hc tp mang tnh trc quan phc v cho chng trnh bi dng c nhn ti nng do on Khoa Kinh t pht trin Trng H Kinh t TPHCM t chc (ch ny hc trong 2 bui), hay cc kho o to ngn hn ti Trung tm T vn doanh nghip v Pht trin kinh t vng v Phn tch d liu v d bo trong kinh doanh. Bn cnh , trong qu trnh hc tp, cc bn sinh vin/ hc vin s c pht cc ti liu c v mt l thuyt SEM, cc bi bo khoa hc, cng trnh nghin cu c p dng SEM bng ting Anh/ ting Vit khc Do SEM kh phc tp di gc ton hc v trnh ca tc gi cn hn ch nn nhng sai st trong qu trnh bin son l kh c th trnh khi. Tc gi rt mong nhn c s ng gp kin, ph bnh ca bn c quyn bi ging ny trong ln ti bn tip theo s c hon thin hn, mang li nhiu li ch hn cho bn c xa gn. Th gp xin gi v: Nguyn Khnh Duy Khoa Kinh t Pht trin Trng H Kinh t TPHCM a ch: 1A Hong Diu Qun Ph Nhun - TPHCM Email: khanhduy@ueh.edu.vn hoc nkduy2002@yahoo.com in thoi: 098.900.1766 Mong rng bn c s tip tc n nhn nhng quyn sch tt hn lin quan n ch kinh t lng, phn tch d liu & d bo nng cao do cc ng nghip & ti bin son (c xut bn chnh thc) trong tng lai. Xin chn thnh cm n v chc cc bn thnh cng! TP.H Ch Minh, thng 5 nm 2009 Tc gi Nguyn Khnh Duy

LI CM N Ti liu hc tp ny khng s v cht ch nh nhng quyn sch khc, bi n c vit di gc trc quan, ng dng N c hon thnh trong thi gian rt ngn nhm phc v trc mt cho chng trnh bi dng c nhn ti nng do on Khoa Kinh t Pht Trin t chc, cng nh cc kho hc ngn hn v Phn tch d liu v d bo trong kinh doanh. Tuy vy, quyn bi ging ny cng l mt kt qu ca s tch lu lu di t trong qu trnh hc tp, ging dy, cng vic, nghin cu t trc ti nay. V qu trnh y, tc gi c s h tr tn tnh ca qu thy c gio, bn b, cc em sinh vin, v nhng ngi thn trong gia nh. Nm 2004, khi AMOS, ti liu v SEM cn rt him; c Trn Kim Dung, thy inh Thi Hong (Khoa QTKD, Khoa Ton-Thng K-H Kinh t TPHCM) gii thiu, khuyn khch, ng vin ti trong qu trnh tm hiu v SEM, v gi tng ti nhng ti liu, phn mm c lin quan. Nh s gip ca qu thy c m vic tm hiu v SEM ca ti nhng thi gian u rt thun li. Ti xin c gi li cm n n Thy Nguyn Hu Lam; thy nhit tnh hng dn lun vn tt nghip bc thc s nghin cu u tin m ti s dng SEM (nm 2006). Trong mn phng php nghin cu, Thy L Nguyn Hu vi cu ni SEM tht n gin!, SEM d hn m hnh hi quy nhiu! khuyn khch nhiu hc vin chng ti tm ti v n. Ti chn thnh cm n thy Nguyn nh Th v nhng gi m, nhng hng dn tn tnh ca thy dnh cho chng ti. Nhng nghin cu ca thy l nhng ti liu rt qu cho nhng ngi lm Marketing hay bt c ai ang lm nghin cu ngnh qun tr kinh doanh, v nhng ai tm hiu v SEM... Thi gian hc tp bc i hc, sau i hc c bit bao k nim vi bn b, v s tri n ca hc vin chng ti vi tt c qu thy c tham gia ging dy. Ti mun c gi li cm n ca mnh n thy Hong Trng v nhng quyn sch v phn tch d liu bng SPSS m thy tham gia bin son (t 1997 n nay). N l nhng ti liu tht qu gi i vi ti cng nh nhng bn am m, hay mun tm hiu v phn tch d liu trong nghin cu; tht khng ng quyn sch u tin ca thy (vit cng vi thy V Vn Huy, c V Th Lan) m ti ngu nhin tm c nh sch khi mi bc chn vo ging ng i hc hng ti n vic lm nhiu nghin cu khoa hc vi phng php nh lng khi cn l sinh vin. Ti xin c chn thnh cm n thy Nguyn Trng Hoi, Thy Cao Ho Thi to iu kin h tr, ng vin, hng dn ti trong cng vic ging dy v phn tch nh lng t nhng ngy u ma thu nm 2007 chng trnh ging dy Kinh t Fulbright. Xin gi n Thu Hng li cm n chn thnh v rt nhiu iu, bn ng hnh, chia s, h tr ti trong sut thi gian hc tp/ nghin cu bc i hc, sau i hc Xin cm n nhng bn ng nghip: anh Quc Duy, anh Thanh Bnh, anh Thanh V v nhng ngi bn khc lun h tr, ng vin, trao i, chia s nhng kin thc, kinh nghim v phn tch d liu, cng nh h tr ti trong cng vic, trong nghin cu. Quyn bi ging ny vit ra ch yu dnh cho cc bn sinh vin i hc khi kinh t qun tr. Cng nh s ham hc tp, s kht khao khm ph v nhng tnh cm tt p m cc bn sinh vin i hc (m ti c dp gp g Trng H Kinh t TPHCM, Trng H Ngoi Thng (CS2), Trng H Ngn Hng TPHCM, chng trnh o to c bit ca Trng H M TPHCM) dnh cho ti trong thi gian qua gip ti lun c nhng nim vui trong cng vic, v nghin cu. Xin chn thnh cm n cc bn!

Bi ging ny cng hng n nhiu i tng bn c khc, c bit hng n cc bn sinh vin Khoa Kinh t pht trin ang tham d lp bi dng c nhn ti nng do on Khoa t chc. Lp hc ny kh c th thnh cng nu khng c s h tr, to iu kin ca rt nhiu thy c gio, ca cc bn trong ban t chc, cc anh ch em phng qun tr thit b, t chc hnh chnh, phng cng ngh thng tin, phng iu phi ging ng thi kho biu, chi on, chi hi, ban cn s cc lp v s n lc ca tng bn sinh vin. Cc v d trong quyn bi ging ny; cc bi tp/ tnh hung km theo v cc quyn sch trong tng lai s c nhng cht liu, ngun d liu t cc nghin cu khng ch ca ti, m cn ca cc bn b, ca cc bn sinh vin, cng nh rt nhiu tc gi khc. Xin chn thnh cm n bn Nguyn Th M Thun, bn Mai Thu Ninh, anh V c Th, anh L Vn Khoa v nhng d liu m cc bn, cc anh kho st rt cng phu. Xin cm n cc tc gi ca cc quyn sch, tp ch, bi vit m ti tham kho; v s am m v nghin cu nghim tc ca h gip ti hiu r hn v nhanh hn nhng vn cha bit. Xin cm n anh Phm c K v thy Bi Nguyn Hng Khoa Qun l cng nghip H Bch Khoa TPHCM v cc bi vit m quyn bi ging ny gii thiu trong ph lc cc bn sinh vin tham kho thm. Cui cng, ti khng qun gi li cm n chn thnh n b, m, em Khnh Hng v nhng ngi thn v tt c! Nguyn Khnh Duy

MC LC

Li ni u Li cm n Mc lc Trang 1. Trao i vi cc bn sinh vin lp bi dng c nhn ti nng & gii thiu m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM), phn mm AMOS......................................6 2. Phn tch nhn t khm ph (EFA_ Exploratory Factor Analysis) ..............................14 3. Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA_Confirmatory Factor Analysis) ..........................20 4. M hnh cu trc (SEM_Structural Equation Modeling) .............................................48 5. Kim nh Bootstrap .....................................................................................................54 6. Phn tch cu trc a nhm ...........................................................................................57 Li kt Ti liu tham kho Ph lc

1. TRAO I VI CC BN SINH VIN LP BI DNG C NHN TI NNG & GII THIU V SEM, PHN MM AMOS T u hc k n nay, lp chng ta hc v cc ch T duy sng to (Thy Nguyn Hong Bo, trong 3 bui), phng php nghin cu nng cao i su vo khung phn tch v nghin cu nh tnh (Thy Trn Tin Khai, trong 2 bui), M hnh Logit (Thy Lng Vinh Quc Duy, trong 1 bui), Cc ch ca kinh t lng ti chnh v d bo nng cao ARIMA, SARIMA, ARCH-GARCH (thy Phng Thanh Bnh, trong 4 bui), Phn tch k thut (Thy V Thanh Sn, trong 2 bui). C Trng Cng Thanh Ngh chia s vi cc bn v kinh nghim lm nghin cu, v gii thiu cc gii thng nghin cu khoa hc sinh vin, kinh nghim hc tp ca mt th khoa u vo cng nh u ra Kho 28 ca trng H Kinh t TPHCM; anh Hong Anh (K hoch u t K31) chia s kinh nghim ca anh trong vic hc tp ca mt ngi i trng t gii nht cuc thi Kinh t hc - tm nhn bn v ti cuc thi do Khoa KTPT chng ta t chc vi hn 5000 th sinh t 11 trng i hc pha Nam - cng nh nhng nghin cu m anh ang n lc 1 , anh Nguyn Ngc Danh cng trao i vi cc bn v nghin cu ca anh v sc kho tr em vi phng php 2SLS (l lun vn tt nghip chng trnh cao hc Vit Nam-H Lan ca anh Danh) Bn cnh , nhng bn sinh vin lp nhn lc, mt s bn lp KHT, Thm nh gi cng tng nghe ni v SEM cng nh bit c s ph bin ca n trong cc nghin cu khi tham d bui bo co chuyn ng dng phng php nh lng trong nghin cu qun tr ngun nhn lc v hnh vi t chc do c Trn Kim Dung bo co. Sng nay, v chiu nay, mt ngy ch nht, chng ta s tm hiu nhng vn quan trng nht, c bn nht ca SEM, CFA v th tm hiu xem ngi ta vn dng n trong nghin cu v qun tr, Marketing, nhn lc, hnh vi trong lnh vc ti chnh chng khon, tm l hc khu vc t cng nh khu vc cng nh th no t cc bn c th t hc su hn v SEM v vn dng mt cch sng to vo nhng nghin cu m cc bn ang p . Gi ra chi sng nay, Anh Hong Nam (Sachvang), l admin v cng l ging vin tr ca Khoa Qun tr Kinh Doanh s gii thiu vi cc bn Forum caohockinhte.info l mt din n rt hp dn v si ng ca cng ng cao hc kinh t Vit Nam, v trn y cng c mt mc dnh ring cho cc bn sinh vin i hc yu thch hot ng nghin cu khoa hc (mc C nhn v thc s ti nng tng lai). Trong nhng nm gn y, khng ch nhiu ngi nghin cu trn th gii v Vit Nam c p dng SEM 2 (Cc bn xem thm trong ph lc, ti liu pht, cc file gi qua email v nghin cu ca thy Nguyn nh Th, c Mai Trang, c Kim Dung, nghin cu ca ti, v nghin cu ca cc tc gi khc) m mt s bn sinh vin i hc, hc vin cao
Ti ngy mai, th hai (11/5/09), 4 bn thuc lp chng ta (Hong NLK32, Phng BSK32, Hi & Cn TG K32) s l 1 i i din cho trng ta tham gia vng chung kt cuc thi Nh kinh t tng lai do trng bn H Ngoi Thng (CS2) t chc ti Nh vn ho thanh nin. Tuy mng qun tr kinh doanh khng phi th mnh ca cc bn SV khoa KTPT, nhng tham gia cuc thi ny cng l mt mi trng hc tp, rn luyn, th hin bn thn, v giao lu! Chc cc bn y may mn, vui, v hc tp c nhiu iu b ch! 2 Ti c nh hun luyn thm cho lp v mt s ch khc na, nhng nhng ch ny ch c mt vi nhm s dng v mt kh nhiu thi gian khi trnh by trn lp: M hnh h phng trnh (mt s nhm c th s dng trong d bo cc ch tiu v m), Kinh t lng vi d liu bng (Nhm bn Mnh Dng, Thanh Hng, Thanh Thu lp Thm nh gi K32), Khai thc b d liu VHLSS vi phn mm STATA (Nhm ca Th Hng v bt bnh ng trong thu nhp KHT K32, Nhm bn Khng lp Nhn lc K32) cc bn c th lin h vi ti qua email, hoc trao i trc tip ti phng gio vin H103 vo tra th nm hng tun v nhng vn ny. V ti cng bit, lp ta c kh nng t hc rt cao!
1

hc cng p dng SEM trong nghin cu ca h. Hai bn sinh vin i hc Kho 31 m ti c dp hng dn cng s dng trong vic o lng cht lng dch v khch sn Nha Trang (kho st c khch du lch quc t v khch trong nc), cc yu t to ng lc lm vic cho cng nhn cc Khu cng nghip ti TPHCM, Bnh Dng. Nm ngoi, mt bn sinh vin Trng H Kinh t - H Nng cng s dng trong ti NCKH sinh vin ca bn, v ti bit nhiu bn sinh vin khc cng lm, s lm AMOS c vit tt t Analysis of MOment Structures (Phn tch cu trc m mng). Phn mm ny dng thc hin mt phng php chung trong phn tch d liu l Structural Equation Modeling (SEM_ m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh). SEM cng c nhng tn gi khc nh Analysis of Covariance Structures (Phn tch cu trc hip phng sai), hay Causal Modeling (m hnh nhn qu). Trn ng ln tham quan bc tng Cha giang tay thnh ph bin Vng Tu (Mi Nghinh Phong), bn s thy mt hnh nh ca v thnh cng c tn l AMOS! Bn hy xem qua mt v d v CFA. Pont & Quilken (2002) kho st 348 khch hng cc ngn hng v s dng phn tch nhn t khng nh (vit tt l CFA, Xem Hnh 1.1 ci s lng nhng vi my ci mc hai u trn) kim nh thang o cht lng dch v ngn hng (BANKSERV) do Avkiran xut nm 1994 nc c (k tha 17 item o lng cht lng dch v ngn hng ca Avkiran 1 ). Trong phn tch nhn t khng nh, Pont v Quilken ch ra rng thang o ny hin nay khng ph hp, v Chisquare=419.15; P=0.001 (<0.05), df = 113, CMIN/df=3.7 (>2), Cc ch tiu TLI=0.86, CFI=0.88, GFI=0.87 (u <0.9) 2 Tuy nhin, Theo bn v sao kt qu li nh th? Lm th no tt hn? (bn hy c k li nghin cu ca Pont v Quilken trong file gi vo email chung!) Bn c thy rng: nm 2002, Pont & Quilken (c l 2 bn ny ang l hc vin sau i hc) p dng y nguyn thang o BANKSERV do Avkiran xut t nm 1994 m khng c s iu chnh no c? Pont khng b sung bin quan st no, khng hiu chnh g, khng EFA li Khng cn lm nghin cu ny cng bit l p dng y nguyn th n s khng cn ph hp, bi qua thi gian mi iu thay i. Trong CFA, bn cng c th c cch hiu chnh m hnh, ci thin mc ph hp vi th trng bng cch thm cc tng quan gia sai s Trong CFA ta cn quan tm n nhiu iu khc na!

Avkiran, N.K, (1999), Developing an instrument to measure customer service quality in branch banking, Internation Journal of Banking Marketing, 12 (6), 10-18 2 Bn hy nhng ng thc c in m trong ngoc n, nu cc ch tiu tng ng ri vo trng hp nh vy th m hnh o lng (hay m hnh nghin cu m bn s tip cn sau ny) khng ph hp vi th trng

Hnh 1.1

Cc bin trong s trn c gii thch nh sau:

Trong ch ny, ngi ta khng ch ngh n vic kim nh m hnh o lng thng qua CFA, m iu quan tm hn na l xy dng, kim nh m hnh nghin cu 1 thng qua m hnh nhn qu, hay thng gi l m hnh cu trc (SEM). Ch Mai Thu Ninh (sinh vin i hc ngnh k hoch u t Kho 31 m ti may mn c dp hng dn) ang lm ti tt nghip v nh gi mc tho mn ca khch du lch i vi cht lng dch v khch sn ti thnh ph Nha Trang. Ninh pht trin thang o cht lng dch v khch sn (Qualification of Hotel Service) ca Saleh and Ryan (1990) v thang o cht lng dch v du lch ca Kanampully (2001) vi mt s thnh phn mi nh v tr, thng tin, v quan tm n yu t gi c. Kho st 107 khch du lch quc t v 73 khch ni a, sau khi EFA, Ninh lm CFA v t yu cu, sau thc hin m hnh cu trc xem xt nh hng ca cht lng, v tr, gi c n s tho mn v lng trung thnh th mt kt qu ban u nh Hnh 1.2: Bn nhn xt s b g v mc ph hp ca m hnh? C cch no ci thin m hnh c tt hn? - Bn s nhn nh rng m hnh ny cha tt, cha ph hp phi khng? ng th! - C nhiu cch thc hiu chnh m hnh. V d nh: thm vo cc h s tng quan gia cc sai s; iu chnh mi quan h gia cc khi nim; b bt mt s bin quan st, mt s khi nim trong m hnh nghin cu khng t yu cu; thc hin li cc phn tch trc EFA - Cn cch no khc na khng? Khi ti ang vit bi ging ny, cc em c bit ch Ninh ang lm g khng? Mc d chuyn tt nghip xong, ch cng ang chun b bo v, v tham gia ti NCKH sinh vin, m hnh tm c (Khng phi l m hnh nh Hnh 1.2), nhng ch ang trn chuyn tu v Nha Trang kho st thm khong 100 khch quc t, 100 khch ni a na ti cc khch sn, phng ch sn bay, mt s khu du lch v ch trng hn cht lng ca cuc phng vn ngoi ra, ch cng ch trng thm v kho st nh tnh. Ti ngh, c l ch y mun khm ph, v khng nh mt iu g , mun ng gp mt iu g c ngha, mun nghin cu ny khng ch b vo trong th vin cc kho sau tham kho, hay ch ng trn cc tp ch hn lm!

M hnh th hin cc quan h tng quan, v quan h nhn qu gia cc khi nim. N thng c biu din bi s , phng trnh.

Hnh 1.2
.60

e1 e2 .12 e3 .32 e4 .23 e5 .25 e6 .15 e7 .46 e8 .23 e9 .06 e10 .29 e11 .25 e12 e13 e14 .53 e15 .15 e16 e17 .30 e18 e19 e20 e21 e22 .18 e23
.63

che1 .51 chi-square= 2406.583 ; df= 534 ; p= .000 ; che3 .80 chi-square/df= 4.507 ; reab1.81 cfi= .811 ; tli= .790 ; reab2.74 rmsea= .140 reab3.79 .77 reab4.79 .72 .90 res1 .83 .90 .86 res2 .78 .89 .89 res3 .77 .91 .88 res4 .74 .88 res5.92 .86 .85 res6.94 chatluong .88 e39 e38 .89 res7 .80 .67 .85 .62 .89 ser1 .91 .73 .79 ser2 .82 .87 thoa man trung thanh .85 ser3 .76 .88 .97 .91 .94 ser4 .78 .86 .90 .82 .87 .91 .93 .82 .94 .89 .81 .67 ser5 .73 .93 .95 .53 sat1 sat2 sat3 loy1 loy2 loy3 loy4 ser6 .75 .81 .11 .83 ser7 .86 .81 .24 e33 e32 e31 e34 e35 e36 e37 tang1.66 -.63 tang4.66 .13 .32 tang5.76 loc1 .72 loc2 .88
.87 .33

e26 e27 e28 e29 e30

vitri
.85 .94 .48

pri1 .88 gia ca pri2 .35 .59 .94 foo2

Sau khi hc xong ch ny, bn s khng ch c nhng hiu bit cn bn v m hnh cu trc, nhng thao tc trn AMOS, m cn gip bn bit cch xy dng, hiu chnh, hon chnh m hnh. V bn c kin thc nn tng c th d dng hiu c cc nghin cu (c p dng SEM) m cc tc gi trong v ngoi nc lm! iu ny gip bn i nhanh, v xa hn trong tip cn nhng tri thc mi, v to ra tri thc mi trong khoa hc.

10

Trong gn 100 em ang hc y, ti ca nhm em no c th p dng CFA, SEM? D nhin, s c nhiu em c th lm c, v nhiu ti c th s dng SEM, bi cc em hc lp ny l lm tt hn cc nghin cu m cc em ang lm, ng gp mt iu g c ngha cho x hi ngay trong khong thi gian ging ng i hc, v chun b hnh trang cho cng vic/hc tp sau khi tt nghip i hc! V d nhng ti ca mt s nhm: cht lng dch v bnh vin, k tc x, my bn hng t ng, dch v vn ti hnh khch ca tu Thng Nht, dch v gio dc; ng lc lm vic ca nhn vin trong khu vc cng, yu t nh hng n kt qu lm vic ca nhn vin, xu hng mua, hnh vi ca nh u t trn th trng chng khon, vn ho t chc, phong cch lnh o 1 . Mt s nhm s dng kinh t lng vi d liu bng (nh ti cc yu t nh ng n FDI vo cc quc gia ang pht trin), hay ti p dng k thut kinh t lng truyn thng (c lng TFP, cc yu t tc ng n thu nhp ca lao ng tr Vit Nam), k thut d bo vi ARIMA, SARIMA, VAR, ARCH-GARCH (d bo gi vng, khch du lch, FDI trong bi cnh khng hong kim nh tnh hiu qu ca th trng chng khon, th trng vng ) hay ch p dng thng k m t cng ng lo lng, v hy tip tc hon thin nghin cu theo hng ! Phng php nghin cu no, phng php phn tch d liu nott c ch l cch thc, cng c cc em t c mc tiu nghin cu! Vn quan trng l la chn phng php ph hp t c mc tiu m thi! Thi gian gn y, trong mt bui hun luyn v phn tch d liu vi SPSS cho cc bn SV nghin cu khoa hc ca Khoa Thng Mi Du Lch Marketing do on Khoa bn y t chc, mt nhm bn sinh vin c trao i vi ti v nghin cu s tho mn ca khch hng i xe bus vi m hnh Kano (s dng EFA, v thng k m t)... Hay mt s bn sinh vin cc Khoa trong trng chng ta tham gia kho hun luyn v phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS do on Trng t chc cng trao i v nhng nghin cu: Cc yu t nh hng n tnh hnh ph sn (anh Bo - Khoa TCDN, p dng phn tch phn bit), cc yu t nh hng n xc sut ri vo tnh hnh n xu ca cc doanh nghip (anh Thnh Khoa TCDN, p dng Logit), ti v ngn hng in t (EFA, Hi quy), Marketing a phng (anh Chinh Khoa KTPT, p dng Thng k m t, nghin cu nh tnh), nh v thng hiu Vnh Tin (ch Phng Linh, khoa KTPT, p dng EFA, Hi quy, MDS) Rt nhiu bn b (Kho 32), cc anh ch sinh vin (Kho 31) trong trng cng ang lm cc nghin cu nh cc em! Mt gi nghin cu dnh cho cc bn sinh vin k hoch u t, bt ng sn, thm nh gi? Hy xem qua bi vit Investment Management and personality type ca Mayfield, Perdue, Wooten va ng trn tp ch Financial Service Review, s 17 nm 2008 ( c gi qua email). Hnh 1.3 th hin mt m hnh m cc tc gi lm Hoa K. Cc bn th nghin cu vn ny Vit Nam! Mt mt ngn hng c m sn giao dch vng cng t hng ti nghin cu hnh vi ca cc nh u t trn th trng vng Vit Nam, cc bn th xem xem liu rng nghin cu ca Mayfield & ctg (2008) ny c h tr g khng?

Chng ta cn nh vo gia thng 6/2009, on Khoa KTPT s t chc hi tho khoa hc v Cc vn Kinh t X hi ca Vit Nam v th gii qua phn tch nh lng, m ngi bo co, ngi tham d chnh l cc em, v mt s bn sinh vin NCKH ca khoa bn, trng bn, v mt s anh ch Kho 31.

11

Hnh 1.3

M hnh trn c Chi-square=183.63, df=141, P=0.009; GFI=0.91, CFI=0.95 Trong m hnh nhng yu t nh hng n nh u t ngn hn trn (bn cnh , cc tc gi cng nghin cu m hnh i vi nh u t di hn), mt s bin quan st o lng cc khi nim c trnh by trang 13

12

13

Trong bi hc ny, c 1 v d xuyn sut; chng ta s s dng d liu m ch Nguyn Th M Thun 1 kho st phc v cho ti NCKH sinh vin ca ch lm v d phn tch. ti ca ch Thun s dng cc cng c phn tch EFA, Cronbachs Alpha, Regression (cc ch ny cc bn u c hc trong mn phn tch d liu v d bo). V by gi, cc bn hy th pht trin thm bng cch s dng CFA, SEM xem th no! Tnh hung n gin v gn gi ny s gip bn d hiu hn v CFA, SEM vi cc thao tc chnh trn AMOS. Nhng tnh hung vi cc m hnh rt phc tp khc m bn s tm hiu, s lm c sau ny cng tng t nh th thi! 2. PHN TCH NHN T KHM PH (Nhc li s lc v hc) Bng cu hi ca ch Thun (xem ph lc) da trn nghin cu ca Dung (2005) hiu chnh cho Vit Nam. T nghin cu nh tnh, ch Thun hiu chnh mt s bin quan st (Item), b i mt s Item khng ph hp vi nhn vin trong lnh vc Ti chnhngn hng, bt ng sn, cng ngh thng tin (nhng ngnh mi nhn ca TPHCM) m ch ang quan tm Ch Thun phi EFA li, v cu trc ca thang o trong tnh hung ca ch Thun cha chc ging vi nghin cu trc ca Dung v Nam (2005), v d nhin c th cng khng ging vi kt qu nghin cu ca Stanton v Crossley (2000) cng nh ca Crossman v Bassem (2003) m Dung k tha. Ch Thun vi mc tiu l sau EFA s chy Regression v th khi EFA cho thang o JDI (Tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic) ch c th s dng phng php Principal Components vi php xoay Varimax cng c. Cn bn, sau EFA bn s lm tip CFA v SEM nn rt quan tm n cu trc ca thang o, cc khi nim sau khi rt ra c th tng quan vi nhau, v cng rt quan tm n s phn bit r rng gia cc nhn t. V vy bn nn lm EFA vi nhng i mi sau: S dng phng php trch Principal Axis Factoring vi php xoay Promax 2 Quan tm n tiu chun 3 : |Factor Loading| ln nht ca mi Item >=0.5 Quan tm n tiu chun: Ti mi Item, chnh lch |Factor Loading| ln nht v |Factor Loading| bt k phi >=0.3 (Jabnoun & Al-Tamimi, 2003) Tng phng sai trch >=50% (Gerbing & Anderson, 1988) KMO>=0.5, Kim nh Bartlett c ngha thng k (Sig<0.05) 4 a. Khi nim s tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic
Ch Thun l sinh vin kho 30 ngnh k hoch u t khoa KTPT (m ti hng dn ti NCKH sinh vin), ch Thun cng l lin chi hi ph hi sinh vin ca Khoa KTPT, ti ca ch t gii khuyn khch cp B. Hin nay ch Thun ra trng c 1 nm v ang lm vic ti ngn hng ACB 2 Theo Gerbing & Anderson (1988), Phng php trch Principal Axis Factoring vi php xoay Promax (Oblique) s phn nh cu trc d liu chnh xc hn phng php trch Principal Components vi php xoay Varimax (Orthogonal) 3 Theo Hair & ctg (1998,111), Factor loading la ch tieu e am bao mc y ngha thiet thc cua EFA (ensuring practical significance). Factor loading > 0.3 c xem la at c mc toi thieu, Factor loading > 0.4 c xem la quan trong, 0.5 c xem la co y ngha thc tien. Hair & ctg (1998,111) cung khuyen ban oc nh sau: neu chon tieu chuan factor loading > 0.3 th c mau cua ban t nhat phai la 350, neu c mau cua ban khoang 100 th nen chon tieu chuan factor loading > 0.55, neu c mau cua ban khoang 50 th Factor loading phai > 0.75 4 KMO l mt ch tiu dng xem xt s thch hp ca EFA, 0.5KMO1 th phn tch nhn t l thch hp. Kim nh Bartlett xem xt gi thuyt v tng quan gia cc bin quan st bng khng trong tng th. Nu kim nh ny c ngha thng k (Sig < 0.05) th cc bin quan st c tng quan vi nhau trong tng th (Trng & Ngc, 2008)
1

14

Bn cn nh thao tc EFA trong phn mm SPSS? Analyze\Data Reduction\Factor Hnh 1.4

Hnh 1.5

Hnh 1.7

Hnh 1.6

Hnh 1.8

15

Kt qu ban u
Pattern Matrixa Factor 1 prom1 prom3 prom2 prom4 work4 sup6 sup5 sup3 sup7 sup4 sup2 sup1 pay4 pay5 pay2 ben4 pay3 pay1 cow1 cow3 cow2 cow4 ben3 ben2 ben1 env3 work3 work2 work1 env2 env1 env4 .863 .753 .689 .651 .436 .811 .784 .758 .664 .482 .411 .378 2 3 4 5 6 7

Cc con s trong bng ny gi l cc Factor loading (h s ti nhn t)

.325

.351 .268

.331 -.301

-.282 .889 .770 .607 .549 .488 .485 .814 .810 .810 .454

.283

.297 .211 .293 .271

.207 .982 .977 .592 .264

.432

.334

.246

Env4 b loi u tin .223 v con s ny nh hn 0.5, v t nht

.213

.768 .541 .514 -.279 .541 .478 .232

Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring. Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization. a. Rotation converged in 7 iterations.

Ln lt loi tng bin khng t yu cu (bin no t nht b loi trc): Env4, env3, sup1, sup2, work4, cow4, env2, env1, pay3, pay1, pay2, V ben1

16

Kt qu EFA ln cui
Pattern Matrixa Factor 1 sup6 sup5 sup3 sup7 sup4 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2 ben3 work3 work2 work1 Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring. Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization. a. Rotation converged in 6 iterations. .270 .841 .826 .758 .628 .520 .899 .707 .670 .602 .913 .795 .768 .907 .817 .593 .961 .952 .915 .791 .545 .278 2 3 4 5 6

Cc con s trong bng ny gi l cc Factor loading (h s ti nhn t)

Bn c nhn xt g t kt qu EFA? C 6 nhn t c rt ra. Nhn t 1: gm cc bin quan st sup3-sup7 c t tn l Lnh o Nhn t 2: gm prom1-prom4 Thng tin Nhn t 3: gm cow1-cow3 ng nghip Nhn t 4: gm pay4, pay5, ben4 lng-thng Nhn t 5: gm ben2, ben3 bo him Nhn t 6: gm work1-work4 bn cht cng vic

17

Total Variance Explained Rotation Sums of Squared Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Loadingsa Total 7.016 1.726 1.428 1.167 1.022 .712 % of Variance Cumulative % 35.080 8.632 7.138 5.835 5.109 3.558 35.080 43.712 50.849 56.685 61.793 65.352 Total 5.210 5.142 4.015 3.801 2.615 4.584 36.889 46.290 55.049 62.609 69.403 74.737 78.349 81.169 83.853 86.159 88.173 90.146 91.971 93.676 95.206 96.466 97.687 98.749 99.660 100.000

Initial Eigenvalues Factor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total 7.378 1.880 1.752 1.512 1.359 1.067 .722 .564 .537 .461 .403 .395 .365 .341 .306 .252 .244 .212 .182 .068 % of Variance Cumulative % 36.889 9.401 8.759 7.560 6.794 5.334 3.612 2.821 2.683 2.306 2.014 1.973 1.826 1.704 1.530 1.260 1.221 1.062 .911 .340

Tng phng sai trch/ hay tng bin thin c gii thch bi cc nhn t

Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring. a. When factors are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to obtain a total variance.

KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square df Sig. .847 2327.451 190 .000

Hai bng trn cho bn nhn xt g? - Tng phng sai trch (hay tng bin thin c gii thch) bng 65.35% (>50%) - KMO = 0.847 (>0.5) v kim nh Bartlett c ngha thng k (Sig<0.05) Nn EFA l ph hp.

18

b. Khi nim lng trung thnh Khi nim lng trung thnh l 1 khi nim n hng (khi EFA, cc bin quan st rt thnh 1 nhn t), nn c th th s dng phng php trch Principal Component Analysis v phng php trch ny s lm cho tng phng sai trch tt hn. Bn c nhn xt g nu c kt qu t EFA cho cc bin quan st thuc khi nim lng trung thnh nh sau?
KMO and Bartlett's Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square df Sig. .701 188.787 3 .000

Total Variance Explained Compo nent 1 2 3 Total 2.146 .487 .367 Initial Eigenvalues % of Variance 71.523 16.230 12.247 Cumulative % 71.523 87.753 100.000 Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Total 2.146 % of Variance 71.523 Cumulative % 71.523

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Component Matrixa Component 1 loy1 loy3 loy2 .874 .834 .829

Bng ny ch c 1 ct, cho thy loy1, loy2, loy3 rt thnh 1 nhn t

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. a. 1 components extracted.

- Ch c 1 nhn t c rt ra, nhn t ny cng c t tn l Trung thnh - EFA cng ph hp v Tng phng sai trch bng 71.53 (>50%), KMO = 0.701 (>0.5), Sig ca kim nh Bartlett=0.000 (<0.05) M hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) bao gm nhiu k thut thng k khc nhau nh phn tch ng dn (Path Analysis), phn tch nhn t khng nh (Confirmatory Factor Analysis), M hnh nhn qu vi cc bin tim n (Causal modeling with Latent variable, v cng thng gi l SEM), v thm ch c phn tch phng sai (Analysis of Variance), m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh bi (Multiple Linear Regression). Chng ta s tm hiu CFA, SEM. 19

3. PHN TCH NHN T KHNG NH (CFA) T kt qu ca EFA, gi bn thy rng ta c 7 khi nim chnh s dng trong m hnh nghin cu sau ny. l Lnh o c o lng bi cc bin quan st sup3-sup7 Thng tin c o lng bi cc bin quan st prom1-prom4 ng nghip c o lng bi cc bin quan st cow1-cow3 Lng-thng c o lng bi cc bin quan st pay4, pay5, ben4 Bo him c o lng bi cc bin quan st ben2, ben3 Bn cht cng vic c o lng bi cc bin quan st work1-work4 Lng trung thnh: c o lng bi loy1, loy2, loy3

6 khi nim u tin l cc khi nim thnh phn ca khi nim S tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic. Cu trc ca thang o S tho mn nhn vin vi cng vic gm c 6 khi nim thnh phn nh trn, v cc bin quan st tng ng cho tng khi nim cng c lit k nh trn. Cc bin quan st quan st sup3-sup7; prom1-prom4; cow1-cow3; pay4, pay5, ben4; ben2, ben3; work1-work4 to thnh mt thang o o lng khi nim S tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic. Cc bin quan st loy1, loy2, loy3 to thnh mt thang o o lng khi nim lng trung thnh. Nhng iu trn to thnh mt m hnh o lng cc khi nim s dng trong nghin cu ca bn. V by gi Chng ta cn kim nh xem M hnh o lng ny c t c yu cu khng? Cc thang o c t c yu cu ca mt thang o tt khng? Vic ny chng ta cn s dng n phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA) Trong CFA ta c th thc hin cho tng khi nim, mt s khi nim, hoc thc hin vi tt c cc khi nim c trong m hnh (gi l m hnh ti hn) Ve mat ly thuyet, trong CFA, chung ta chu y en mot so van e sau: e o lng mc o phu hp cua mo hnh vi thong tin th trng, ngi ta thng s dung Chi-square (CMIN); Chi-square ieu chnh theo bac t do (CMIN/df); ch so thch hp so sanh (CFI_ Comparative Fit Index). Ch so Tucker & Lewis (TLI_ Tucker & Lewis Index); Ch so RMSEA (Root Mean Square Error Approximation). Mo hnh c xem la thch hp vi d lieu th trng khi kiem nh Chi-square co P-value > 0.05. Tuy nhien Chi-square co nhc iem la phu thuoc vao kch thc mau. Neu mot mo hnh nhan c cac gia tr GFI, TLI, CFI 0.9 (Bentler & Bonett, 1980); CMIN/df 2, mot so trng hp CMIN/df co the 3 (Carmines & McIver, 1981); RMSEA 0.08, RMSEA 0.05 c xem la rat tot (Steiger, 1990); th mo hnh c xem la phu hp vi d lieu th trng, hay tng thch vi d lieu th trng. Tho & Trang (2008) cho rang Neu mo hnh nhan c cac gia tr TLI, CFI 0.9, CMIN/df 2, RMSEA 0.08 th mo hnh phu hp (tng thch) vi d lieu th trng. Quy tac nay cung c s dung e anh gia mc o phu hp cua mo hnh cau truc muc 4. Khi CFA, nen thc hien cac anh gia khac nh 1 :
1

Xem thm Th & Trang (2008)

20

(1) anh gia o tin cay cua thang o thong qua: (a) He so tin cay tong hp (composite reliability) va (b) Tong phng sai trch c (variance extracted), (c) He so Cronbachs Alpha o tin cay tong hp ( ) (Joreskog 1971 ), va tong phng sai trch ( )

VC

(Fornell & Larcker 1981) c tnh theo cong thc sau: 2 p p 2 ( i) i VC = p 2 i=1 p C = p i =1 p 2 2 2 i + (1 i ) ( i) + (1 i ) i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 Trong o so o lng bien quan sat th i, p la so bien quan sat cua thang o. Ch tieu , phai at yeu cau t 0.5 tr len

la trong so chuan hoa cua bien quan sat th i; 1- i la phng sai cua sai
VC

Theo Hair (1998, 612):phng sai trch (Variance Extracted) cua moi khai niem nen vt qua 0.5; va phng sai trch cung la mot ch tieu o lng o tin cay. No phan anh lng bien thien chung cua cac bien quan sat c tnh toan bi bien tiem an Schumacker & Lomax (2006, 178) cho rang trong CFA, mot van e quan trong can phai quan tam khac la o tin cay cua tap hp cac bien quan sat o lng mot khai niem (nhan to); va nh truyen thong, he so tin cay Cronbachs Alpha van thng c s dung. No o lng tnh kien nh noi tai xuyen suot tap hp cac bien quan sat cua cac cau tra li Trong kiem nh Cronbachs Alpha, cac bien quan sat co he so tng quan bien-tong (item-total correlation) nho hn 0.3 se b loai va tieu chuan chon thang o khi he so Cronbachs Alpha t 0.6 tr len (Nunnally & Burnstein, 1994). Tuy nhien, cung can lu y rang neu Cronbachs Apha qua cao (>0.95) th co kha nang xuat hien bien quan sat tha (Redundant items) trong thang o. Bien quan sat tha la bien o lng mot khai niem hau nh trung vi bien o lng khac, tng t nh trng hp cong tuyen (collinearity) trong hoi quy, khi o bien tha nen c loai bo. (2) Tnh n hng/ n nguyen (unidimensionality) - Theo Steenkamp & Van Trijp (1991), mc o phu hp cua mo hnh vi d lieu th trng cho chung ta ieu kien can va u e cho tap bien quan sat at c tnh n hng, tr trng hp cac sai so cua cac bien quan sat co tng quan vi nhau. (3) Gia tr hoi tu (Convergent validity) - Gerbring & Anderson (1988) cho rang thang o at c gia tr hoi tu khi cac trong so chuan hoa cua thang o eu cao (>0.5); va co y ngha thong ke (P <0.05)

21

(4) Gia tr phan biet (Discriminant validity) - Co the kiem nh gia tr phan biet cua cac khai niem trong mo hnh ti han (saturated model) mo hnh ma cac khai niem nghien cu c t do quan he vi nhau). Co the thc hien kiem nh he so tng quan xet tren pham vi tong the gia cac khai niem co thc s khac biet so vi 1 hay khong. Neu no thc s khac biet th cac thang o at c gia tr phan biet. V du: Mot thang o co 2 khai niem spatial va verbal, so quan sat= 73
r spatial <--> verbal SE=SQRT((1-r2)/(n-2)) (1-r)/SE 4.949 P-value 0.000

0.487

0.104

TINV(0.05,71)=1.993 TDIST(4.95,71,2)=0.000 (<0.05) bac bo gia thuyet cho rang (spatial,verbal)=1 Ghi chu quy tac kiem nh 1 : H o: = H 1:

Tnh T =

|r |
o

n2 Neu T > t , ,n 2 th bac bo Ho

2

1 r

; Tra bang phan phoi Student

, ,n 2 2

(5) Gia tr lien he ly thuyet (Nomological validity) - Cac van e t 1 en 4 c anh gia thong qua mo hnh o lng. Rieng gia tr lien he ly thuyet c anh gia trong mo hnh ly thuyet (Anderson & Gerbing, 1988) Khi cac van e tren thoa man th mo hnh o lng la tot. Tuy nhien, rat hiem mo hnh o lng nao at c tat ca cac van e tren! V du, mo hnh o lng van co the c s dung khi thang o khong at c tnh n hng

Xem Hoai (2001)

22

Ve mat thc hanh, ta s dung phan mem AMOS v i cch thc Amos Graphics 1 Khi ng AMOS? Start Program AMOS 16 Amos Graphics Cng dng ca cc nt?

Dng v bin quan st Dng v bin tim n Dng v bin tim n v cc bin quan st
Hnh 3.1

Dng v yu t sai s

V h s ng dn, h s hi quy V hip phng sai, h s tng quan Lit k danh sch bin Ngn tay: chn 1 i tng Bn tay di: Chn tt c i tng Bn tay ngn: Khng chn na Di chuyn i tng Xo i tng My ph t: Copy i tng Xoay i tng

Chnh kch c i tng Tnh ton cc c lng Di chuyn cc tham s c lng Copy s ng dn vo Clipboard

Xem kt qu dng vn bn/ bng biu

Trong AMOS, ngoi AMOS Graphics c mt cch thc khc na l g cc lnh VB.NET hay C#

23

To file mi? File\New M file d liu? File\Data Files (Ctrl-D) file cn m OK Hnh 3.2

Chn File Name

Chn kiu file v ch n

Hin th danh sch bin? Chn nt sau Hnh 3.3

Khi bn s thy mt hp thoi nh xut hin, lit k cc bin c trong d liu Hnh 3.4

V cc bin tim n, cc bin quan st tng ng? Bc 1. Chn nt Hnh 3.5

24

Bc 2. R n v tr tng ng v ra 1 vng trn, nhp chut 5 tri nm ci, bn s c i tng nh Hnh 3.6 Hnh 3.6

Bc 3. Nhp bn tay di, chn c i tng Bc 6. Nhp t di chuyn i tng sao cho p Bc 4. Nhp nt ny xoay i tng sao cho nh Hnh 3.7 Bc 5. Nhp nt ny Chnh sa kch c ca i tng sao cho p

Hnh 3.7

Copy i tng? Hin nay ch c mt Bin tim n vi 5 bin quan st nh Hnh 3.7. u tin bn s chn i tng cn Copy bng cch nhp nt bn tay di, ri nhp ci my Photocopy, sau r chut n v tr cn dn i tng c copy. Bn s c Hnh nh Hnh 3.8

25

Hnh 3.8

Bc 1. Chn nt ny nh du i tng cn Copy

Bc 2. Chn my Photocopy copy, sau r chut n v tr mi bn s c thm mt i tng na

t mi

By gi bn Copy xong ri, th hy nhp nt bn tay ngn, khng chn g na. Tuy nhin i tng mi ca bn ch cn c 4 bin quan st thi. Do bn cn xo i 1 bin quan st.
Xo 1 ci g ?

Chn nt

sau di chuyn cht n i tng cn xo, nhp chut vo i tng

Bn hy kt hp cc nt v to ra s nh Hnh 3.9:

26

Hnh 3.9

V cc cc mi tn 2 u? (Th hin cho hip phng sai/ h s tng quan) Hnh 3.10

Bn hy t v ra tip c nh Hnh 3.11 nh

27

Hnh 3.11
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

28

Gp cc bin quan st vo cc hnh ch nht (hnh vung) i din cho cc bin quan st trn s ? Hnh 3.12 Nhp bin tng ng trong danh sch v gp sang

Sau khi gp cc bin quan st vo cc hnh ch nht tng ng. Bn s c s nh Hnh 3.13.
By gi, bn nn gn tn cho cc bin tim n (Hnh elip) bng cch

Chn nt ngn tay Nhp vo Hnh elip u tin, Click phi chut, Chn Object Properties (Hnh 3.13) Hp thoi nh Hnh 14, xut hin. Bn hy nhp tn bin vo Variable name

Bn hy nhp vo nt ngn tay, cc bin tim n ny.

, sau ln lt nhp vo cc Elip cn li, t tn cho

Hy lm tng t trong vic t tn cho cc sai s: e1, e2 ... (Hnh 3.15)

V by gi bn v song S nh Hnh 3.16.

29

Hnh 3.13

Hnh 3.14

30

Hnh 3.15

31

Hnh 3.16

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15 e16 e17 e18 e19 e20 e21 e22 e23

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2
1 1 1 1 1

lanh dao

thang tien

dong nghiep

luong thuong

bao hiem

ben3 work1 work2 work3 loy1 loy2 loy3

1 1

cong viec

trung thanh

32

Th hin mt s ch tiu ln mn hnh? Nu bn mun th hin mt s ch tiu ln mn hnh s ng dn, hy chn nt Title

, nhp chut ti 1 v tr mun th hin, g cc Macro sau Hnh 3.17

Khi trn s s c cc dng tng ng (Hnh 3.18) Hnh 3.18

Khai bo cc thuc tnh cn tnh ton? T thanh Menu chn View\Analysis Properties Hnh 3.19

Sau nh du chn nh Hnh 3.20, Hnh 3.21

33

Hnh 3.20

Hnh 3.21

Lu li file S s ? Files \ Save hoc Save As

Trc khi tnh ton, bn nn lu li file s ng dn

34

Tnh ton cc c lng?

Nhp nt

Cc kt qu s c tnh ton
Th hin kt qu? Hnh 3.22

Chn nt ny th hin kt qu tnh ton ln s

Chuyn i cch th hin dng khng chun ho/ chun ho

35

Kt qu dng s cha chun ho Hnh 3.23

e1 e2 e3 e4

.73 1 .98 1 .71 1 .92 1 1.07 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2 ben3 work1 work2 work3 loy1 loy2 loy3
1.07 1.03 1.43 .89 1.00 .96 .92 .65 .92 1.48 Chi-square= 403.140 ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.929 ; GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ; RMSEA= .068

lanh dao

e5 1.18 e6 e7 e8
.81 1 1.39 1 .95 1 1

thang tien
.83 1.00 1.04 1.23

.65

.67 .60 .52 .71 .87 .39 .41 1.34 .41 1.00 .47 2.40 .73 1.02

e9.52 e10 e11

.61 1 .71 1 1

dong nghiep
.97 1.00 1.14

e12 .78 e13 e14

.97

.71 1 1.77 1 1

luong thuong
1.14 1.00 1.10

e15 .05 e16

.40 1 e17 1.01 1

bao hiem
1.00 .88 1.59 .45

.62

.62

e18 e19

.78 1

1.03 .34

.93 1 e20 .83 1

cong viec
.95 1.00 1.00 1.62 .94

e21 e22 e23

1.68 1 1.15 1

trung thanh
.99 1.00

36

Kt qu dng s chun ho Hnh 3.24

.63

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15 e16 e17 e18 e19 e20 e21 e22 e23

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7

.39

.64 .80 .56 .58 .58 .65 .41

.79 .62

lanh dao

Chi-square= 403.140 ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.929 ; GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ; RMSEA= .068

.75 .76 .66 .76 .81

prom1 prom2 prom3

thang tien

.48

.60 .64 .78 prom4.72

.48 .45 .28 .51

cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2 ben3 work1 work2

.85 .66 .63 .81 .69 .71 .43 .84 .98 .86 .55 .65 .63 .80 .79 .81 .48 .58 .70 .76 .93 .74 .66 .99 .80 .83

dong nghiep
.21 .32 .67 .24

.57

.63

luong thuong
.26

.66 .52

bao hiem
.23

.43

.44

.70 .17

cong viec
.59

work3 .66 loy1 loy2 loy3

trung thanh

37

Kt qu dng cc bng s liu

Chn nt Hnh 3.25

, ca s Amos Output s xut hin

Nhp vo cc mc tng ng bn tri ca ca s Output, bn s xem cc kt qu khc nhau:

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model) Bng cc trng s cha chun ho

Estimate S.E. C.R. P sup7 <--- lanhdao 1.000 sup6 <--- lanhdao .895 .085 10.533 *** sup5 <--- lanhdao .919 .082 11.273 *** sup4 <--- lanhdao .654 .076 8.637 *** sup3 <--- lanhdao .917 .082 11.192 *** prom4 <--- thangtien 1.000 prom3 <--- thangtien .826 .093 8.890 *** prom2 <--- thangtien 1.030 .091 11.360 *** prom1 <--- thangtien 1.075 .100 10.735 *** cow1 <--- dongnghiep 1.037 .087 11.968 *** cow3 <--- dongnghiep 1.000 cow2 <--- dongnghiep .974 .084 11.619 *** pay4 <--- luong_thuong 1.138 .122 9.353 *** ben4 <--- luong_thuong 1.000 pay5 <--- luong_thuong 1.141 .121 9.411 *** work1 <--- congviec .881 .086 10.224 ***

Label

38

work3 <--- congviec work2 <--- congviec ben3 <--- baohiem ben2 <--- baohiem loy1 <--- trungthanh loy3 <--- trungthanh loy2 <--- trungthanh

Estimate S.E. C.R. P 1.000 .952 .086 11.012 *** 1.000 1.096 .101 10.804 *** .999 .093 10.774 *** 1.000 .985 .106 9.338 ***

Label

Standardized Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

sup7 <--sup6 <--sup5 <--sup4 <--sup3 <--prom4 <--prom3 <--prom2 <--prom1 <--cow1 <--cow3 <--cow2 <--pay4 <--ben4 <--pay5 <--work1 <--work3 <--work2 <--ben3 <--ben2 <--loy1 <--loy3 <--loy2 <---

lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao thangtien thangtien thangtien thangtien dongnghiep dongnghiep dongnghiep luong_thuong luong_thuong luong_thuong congviec congviec congviec baohiem baohiem trungthanh trungthanh trungthanh

Estimate .762 .750 .799 .625 .793 .776 .643 .808 .764 .846 .795 .811 .830 .656 .843 .740 .793 .805 .925 .992 .812 .764 .695

Cc trng s ( chun ho) ny cn > 0.5 thang o c th t c gi tr hi t. Trng hp bin quan st no c trng s <0.5 th bn ln lt loi ra.

Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model) Hip phng sai

lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao

Estimate S.E. <--> thangtien .961 .158 <--> dongnghiep .646 .130 <--> luong_thuong .671 .143 <--> baohiem .519 .158 <--> congviec .875 .158

C.R. 6.070 4.974 4.686 3.287 5.542

P *** *** *** .001 ***

Label

39

Estimate S.E. lanhdao <--> trungthanh .970 .168 thangtien <--> dongnghiep .602 .127 thangtien <--> luong_thuong .707 .145 thangtien <--> baohiem .389 .152 thangtien <--> congviec 1.017 .166 thangtien <--> trungthanh 1.002 .168 dongnghiep <--> luong_thuong .408 .118 dongnghiep <--> baohiem .408 .141 dongnghiep <--> congviec .729 .139 dongnghiep <--> trungthanh .618 .136 luong_thuong <--> baohiem .470 .154 luong_thuong <--> congviec .621 .145 luong_thuong <--> trungthanh 1.029 .179 congviec <--> baohiem .454 .163 baohiem <--> trungthanh .338 .162 congviec <--> trungthanh .941 .170

C.R. 5.791 4.745 4.873 2.561 6.136 5.948 3.466 2.886 5.237 4.536 3.058 4.287 5.735 2.784 2.085 5.528

P *** *** *** .010 *** *** *** .004 *** *** .002 *** *** .005 .037 ***

Label

Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model) H s tng quan

lanhdao <--> lanhdao <--> lanhdao <--> lanhdao <--> lanhdao <--> lanhdao <--> thangtien <--> thangtien <--> thangtien <--> thangtien <--> thangtien <--> dongnghiep <--> dongnghiep <--> dongnghiep <--> dongnghiep <--> luong_thuong <--> luong_thuong <--> luong_thuong <--> congviec <--> baohiem <--> congviec <-->

thangtien dongnghiep luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh dongnghiep luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh baohiem congviec trungthanh baohiem trungthanh trungthanh

Estimate .661 .480 .478 .276 .572 .628 .454 .511 .210 .675 .658 .318 .238 .523 .439 .262 .426 .699 .233 .171 .588

40

Variances: (Group number 1 - Default model) Phng sai

lanhdao thangtien dongnghiep luong_thuong congviec baohiem trungthanh e5 e4 e3 e2 e1 e9 e8 e7 e6 e12 e11 e10 e15 e14 e13 e17 e16 e20 e19 e18 e23 e22 e21

Estimate S.E. 1.476 .243 1.431 .232 1.227 .194 1.337 .274 1.586 .255 2.402 .349 1.619 .273 1.066 .131 .920 .111 .707 .092 .985 .108 .730 .094 .947 .123 1.388 .156 .807 .113 1.177 .150 .713 .099 .607 .089 .525 .089 1.765 .202 .706 .126 .781 .130 .403 .214 .049 .253 .934 .136 .781 .118 1.014 .130 1.154 .155 1.680 .202 .834 .129

C.R. P Label 6.068 *** 6.158 *** 6.336 *** 4.879 *** 6.228 *** 6.888 *** 5.932 *** 8.165 *** 8.297 *** 7.660 *** 9.147 *** 7.746 *** 7.683 *** 8.926 *** 7.120 *** 7.849 *** 7.167 *** 6.816 *** 5.873 *** 8.718 *** 5.601 *** 5.988 *** 1.885 .059 .194 .847 6.855 *** 6.599 *** 7.775 *** 7.456 *** 8.325 *** 6.481 ***

41

Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model) thng gi l R2

loy1 loy2 loy3 work1 work2 work3 ben2 ben3 pay4 pay5 ben4 cow1 cow2 cow3 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7
CMIN

Estimate .659 .483 .584 .548 .648 .629 .983 .856 .689 .711 .431 .715 .657 .632 .584 .653 .413 .602 .629 .390 .638 .562 .581

Model Default model Saturated model Independence model

RMR, GFI

NPAR 67 276 23

CMIN 403.140 .000 2831.904

DF 209 0 253

P .000 .000

CMIN/DF 1.929 11.193

Model Default model Saturated model Independence model

RMR .142 .000 .812

GFI .858 1.000 .262

AGFI .813 .195

PGFI .650 .240

42

Baseline Comparisons

Model Default model Saturated model Independence model

RMSEA

NFI Delta1 .858 1.000 .000

RFI rho1 .828 .000

IFI Delta2 .926 1.000 .000

TLI rho2 .909 .000

CFI
.925 1.000 .000

Model Default model Independence model

RMSEA .068 .226

LO 90 .058 .219

HI 90 .078 .234

PCLOSE .002 .000

Bn hy da vo cc kt qu trn v nh gi v m hnh o lng? Mc ph hp chung? - Chi-square/df = 1.93 (<2); TLI = 0.909 ; CFI=0.925; RMSEA=0.068 (<0.08) nn c th ni l m hnh ph hp vi d liu th trng.

Tuy nhin, c 1 s ch tiu cha t, theo bn ci thin cc ch tiu ny bng cch no?
Gi tr hi t?

- Cc trng s (chun ho) u > 0.5 v cc trng s (cha chun ho) u c ngha thng k nn cc khi nim t c gi tr hi t.

Tnh n nguyn?

M hnh ny o lng ny ph hp vi d liu th trng, v khng c tng quan gia cc sai s o lng nn n t c tnh n nguyn.

43

 tin cy? p dng cng thc v tnh tin cy tng hp? Tng phng sai trch? V d nht l s dng Cronbachs Alpha Bn cn nh thao tc trn SPSS? Analyze\ Scale\ Reliability Analysis

Hnh 3.26

V d: Vi thang o lnh o
Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha .860 5 N of Items

H s Cronbachs Alpha = 0.86 (>0.6) v Cc h s tng quan bin tng u > 0.3 nn thang o lnh o t c tin cy

Item-Total Statistics Cronbach's Scale Mean if Item Deleted sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 20.31 19.70 20.06 19.80 20.44 Scale Variance if Corrected ItemItem Deleted 21.391 24.163 21.343 21.340 20.529 Total Correlation .728 .563 .736 .699 .674 Alpha if Item Deleted .819 .858 .817 .826 .835

44

Vi thang o thng tin

Bn c nhn xt g?
Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha .835 N of Items 4

Item-Total Statistics Cronbach's Scale Mean if Item Deleted prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 13.57 13.73 13.11 13.29 Scale Variance if Corrected ItemItem Deleted 14.758 15.726 16.826 15.897 Total Correlation .696 .707 .587 .677 Alpha if Item Deleted .778 .774 .825 .787

V tng t vi thang o cho cc khi nim khc

45

 tin cy tng hp, tng phng sai trch? bn hy tnh bng Excel

Bn hy tnh tin cy tng hp, tng phng sai trch cho cc khi nim khc nh!

46

Gi tr phn bit?

Cch d nht l h s tng quan gia cc khi nim thnh phn ca mt khi nim ln phi <0.9 th mi t c gi tr phn bit. Mt cch khc, cn thn hn, bn kim nh xem h s tng quan c khc bit so vi 1 hay khng (lm bng Excel)
n=200 Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model) r lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao thangtien thangtien thangtien thangtien thangtien dongnghiep dongnghiep dongnghiep dongnghiep luong_thuong luong_thuong luong_thuong congviec baohiem congviec <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> <--> thangtien dongnghiep luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh dongnghiep luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh luong_thuong baohiem congviec trungthanh baohiem congviec trungthanh baohiem trungthanh trungthanh Estimate 0.661 0.48 0.478 0.276 0.572 0.628 0.454 0.511 0.21 0.675 0.658 0.318 0.238 0.523 0.439 0.262 0.426 0.699 0.233 0.171 0.588 TINV(0.05,198) SE= SQRT((1-r2)/(n-2)) 0.053 0.062 0.062 0.068 0.058 0.055 0.063 0.061 0.069 0.052 0.054 0.067 0.069 0.061 0.064 0.069 0.064 0.051 0.069 0.070 0.057 1.972 CR= (1-r)/SE 6.36 8.34 8.36 10.60 7.34 6.73 8.62 8.00 11.37 6.20 6.39 10.12 11.04 7.87 8.79 10.76 8.93 5.92 11.10 11.84 7.17

P-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Hm tnh P-value trong Excel trn l TDIST(|CR|, n-2, 2) Bn s thy P-value u <0.05 nn H s tng quan ca tng cp khi nim khc bit so vi 1 tin cy 95% (M l h s tng quan th bn c th suy ra tip rng n < 1). Do , cc khi nim t c gi tr phn bit.

47

4. M HNH CU TRC (SEM) Anh ch hy lu li file trn vi 1 tn khc, v d l SEM JDI Loy 1.amw

Sau v li s nh sau. Ch elip ca khi nim trung thnh c 1 sai s e24 (bn c th k hiu khc, v d l z1 cng c). Mi mt bin ph thuc trong m hnh cu trc phi c 1 sai s. Hnh 4.1

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15 e16 e17 e18 e19 e20

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6

1

lanh dao

sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2 bao hiem ben3 work1 work2 work3
1 1 1 1 1

thang tien

e23
1

e22
1

e21
1

loy3 loy2 loy1

1

dong nghiep

trung thanh
1

luong thuong

e24

cong viec

Tnh ton bng cch bm vo nt

, bn s c kt qu

48

Hnh 4.2
.63

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15 e16 e17 e18 e19 e20

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7

.39

.64 .80 .56 .58 .58 .65 .41

.79 .62

lanh dao

Chi-square= \chi-square ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.929 ; GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ; RMSEA= .068

.75 .76 .66 .76 .81 .20

prom1 prom2 prom3

thang tien

.48

e23

e22
.58 .48 .81 .70

e21
.66

.60 .64 .78 prom4.72

.45

.48 .19

loy3 loy2 loy1

.28 .76 .66

cow1 cow2 cow3 pay4 pay5 ben4 ben2 ben3 work1 work2 work3

.85 .66 .63 .81 .69 .71 .43 .84 .98 .86 .55 .65 .63 .80 .79 .93 .74 .66 .99 .80 .83

dong nghiep
.32

.51 .06 .67 .21 .45

.57

trung thanh

-.09

luong thuong
.26

.24 .52

.14

e24

bao hiem
.23

.43

cong viec

Nghin cu ca Dung & Nam (2005) ch ra rng cc thnh phn ca s tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic nh hng n lng trung thnh, v iu ny cng c kim nh bi nhiu tc gi khc nh Yousef(2000), Schepker (2001), Jernigan & ctg (20002). V vy, m hnh nghin cu ca bn d nh c th nh Hnh 4.1 v kt qu c lng ln u tin nh Hnh 4.2

49

Kt qu dng bng s liu

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

Estimate S.E. C.R. P trungthanh <--- lanhdao .212 .101 2.096 .036 trungthanh <--- thangtien .204 .119 1.713 .087 trungthanh <--- dongnghiep .068 .090 .755 .450 trungthanh <--- luong_thuong .495 .099 4.983 *** trungthanh <--- baohiem -.073 .050 -1.470 .142 trungthanh <--- congviec .142 .104 1.372 .170

ng nghip khng c ngha thng k tin Label 90% v P-value >0.1 cy

Khi nim no khng c ngha thng k tin cy 90% ta s loi ln lt ra khi m hnh. (D nhin l tm c m hnh tt, bn c th phi th nhiu m hnh khc nhau) Lu li file SEM JDI Loy 1.amw gi li s (khi cn, c th s dng li) Lu file SEM JDI Loy 1.amw vi tn khc SEM JDI Loy 2.amw Hnh 4.3
.62

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7

.39

.64 .80 .57 .58 .59 .65 .42

.79 .62

Chi-square= 188.523 ; df= 84 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 2.244 ; GFI= .894 ; TLI = .912 ; CFI = .929 ; RMSEA= .079

lanh dao
.23 .66 .77

e23

e22
.57

e21
.48 .67

.75 .76

loy3 loy2 loy1

.76 .70 .82 .64

prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4

.81

thang tien
.48

.27

trung thanh

.59 .65 .77

e24
.52 .45

.67

e13 e14 e15

pay4 pay5 ben4

.82 .74 .41 .86 .64

luong thuong

50

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh <--- lanhdao trungthanh <--- thangtien trungthanh <--- luong_thuong sup7 <--- lanhdao sup6 <--- lanhdao sup5 <--- lanhdao sup4 <--- lanhdao sup3 <--- lanhdao prom4 <--- thangtien prom3 <--- thangtien prom2 <--- thangtien prom1 <--- thangtien pay4 <--- luong_thuong ben4 <--- luong_thuong pay5 <--- luong_thuong loy2 <--- trungthanh loy1 <--- trungthanh loy3 <--- trungthanh

Estimate S.E. C.R. P .241 .098 2.463 .014 .291 .106 2.748 .006 .496 .102 4.886 *** 1.000 .898 .085 10.580 *** .919 .082 11.271 *** .648 .076 8.569 *** .911 .082 11.126 *** 1.000 .844 .095 8.886 *** 1.039 .094 11.100 *** 1.089 .103 10.571 *** 1.146 .126 9.120 *** 1.000 1.186 .128 9.267 *** .994 .108 9.245 *** 1.014 .095 10.653 *** 1.000

P-value ca lnh o, thng tin, lng thng u <0.05. Nn cc bin ny u thc s nh hng n lng trung thnh

V, cc trng s cha chun ho mang du dng cng cho thy cc bin lnh o, thng tin, lng thng nh hng t l thun n trung thnh

Standardized Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh <--trungthanh <--trungthanh <--sup7 <--sup6 <--sup5 <--sup4 <--sup3 <--prom4 <--prom3 <--prom2 <--prom1 <--pay4 <--ben4 <--pay5 <--loy2 <--loy1 <--loy3 <---

lanhdao thangtien luong_thuong lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao lanhdao thangtien thangtien thangtien thangtien luong_thuong luong_thuong luong_thuong trungthanh trungthanh trungthanh

Estimate .232 .273 .446 .763 .754 .800 .621 .790 .769 .651 .808 .767 .820 .644 .860 .696 .818 .758

- Cc trng s chun ho u dng, nn cc bin lnh o, thng tin, lng thng nh hng thun chiu n trung thnh - lng thng tc ng mnh nht n lng trung thnh v tr tuyt i ca trng s chun ho l 0.446, ln nht trong 3 s 0.446, 0.273, 0.232.

51

Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh

Estimate .636

Modification Indices (Group number 1 - Default model)

Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model)

M.I. Par Change e22 <--> luong_thuong 4.741 .232 e22 <--> lanhdao 4.312 -.215 e13 <--> thangtien 9.951 -.243 e15 <--> thangtien 6.609 .264 e6 <--> lanhdao 4.899 -.196 -.330 e6 <--> e13 13.166 e6 <--> e15 5.793 .290 e7 <--> e6 7.529 .234 e9 <--> lanhdao 5.466 .189 e9 <--> e14 7.447 .217 e9 <--> e7 6.705 -.202 e1 <--> luong_thuong 10.649 -.238 e1 <--> thangtien 5.395 .160 e1 <--> e22 5.827 -.229 e1 <--> e9 4.866 .164 e2 <--> luong_thuong 4.322 .164 e2 <--> e7 6.723 -.198 e5 <--> luong_thuong 24.137 .421 e5 <--> e14 7.505 .223 e5 <--> e2 4.470 -.173

M hnh c Chi-square cng nh cng tt. Ct MI gi cho bn xem nn mc mi tn hai u vo cp sai s no c th ci thin Chi-square. Nu mc gia e6 v e13 th hip phng sai gia chng s l -0.33 v Chi-square s gim mt lng l 13.166 so vi Chisquare ca m hnh ban u. Khi GFI, TLI, CFI cng s c ci thin. Khi thm 1 tham s, nu Chisquare gim khong t 4 tr ln th gi l c s thay i ng k. Bn nn chn nhng trng hp m c MI ln u tin mc trc. Sau , chy li m hnh, v xem nn mc tip gia hai sai s no tip tc ci thin Tuy nhin, mt m hnh khng nn mc qu nhiu mi tn hai u gia cc cp sai s!

Bn c nhn xt g v m hnh trn? - M hnh Hnh 4.3 c th ni l ph hp vi d liu th trng v Chi-square=2.24 (<3), TLI=0.912, CFI=0.929 (>0.9); RMSEA=0.079 (<0.08). Tuy nhin cc ch tiu ny cha phi tt lm!

-Xem bng Regression Weights, ta thy c ba khi nim Lnh o, thng tin, lng thng u nh hng thun chiu n trung thnh v c ngha thng k. -Xem bng Standardized Regression Weights, ta thy cc trng s chun ho. Tr tuyt i ca cc trng s ny cng ln th khi nim c lp tng ng tc ng cng mnh n khi nim ph thuc. Trng hp ny lng thng l yu t tc ng mnh nht (trng s hi quy chun ho bng 0.446); Mnh nh l thng tin (trng s hi quy chun ho l 0.273) v cui cng l lnh o (trng s hi quy chun ho l 0.232) -Ba khi nim Lnh o, thng tin, lng thng gii thch c 63.6% bin thin ca trung thnh.

52

Lm sao m hnh SEM tt hn?

- Da vo ch tiu MI, bn s c th ci thin m hnh tt hn. Hy xem m hnh Hnh 4.4 Hnh 4.4
.63 Chi-square= 164.976 ; df= 81 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 2.037 ; GFI= .908 ; TLI = .927 ; CFI = .943 ; RMSEA= .072

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6
.31

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7

.39

.64 .80 .57 .58 .46 .63 .41

.79 .62

lanh dao
.23 .68 .68

e23

e22
.58

e21
.48 .66

.75 .76

loy3 loy2 loy1

.76 .70 .81 .63

prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4

e7
-.33

.80

thang tien
.48

.28

trung thanh

e8 e9

.71 .64 .84

e24
-.20 .54 .44

.67

e13 e14 e15

pay4 pay5 ben4

.82 .75 .40 .87 .64

luong thuong

Bn hy th so snh cc ch tiu nh gi mc ph hp ca m hnh Hnh 4.3 v m hnh Hnh 4.4?

53

5. KIM NH BOOTSTRAP Cc h s hi quy trong m hnh mc 4 c c c lng tt khng? Lm sao nh gi c mc tin cy ca cc c lng trong m hnh nghin cu?

nh gi tin cy ca cc c lng, trong cc phng php nghin cu nh lng bng phng php ly mu, thng thng chng ta phi chia mu ra lm hai mu con. Mt na dng c lng cc tham s m hnh, v mt na dng nh gi li. Cch khc l lp li nghin cu bng mt mu khc. Hai cch trn y thng khng thc t v phng php cu trc thng i hi mu ln nn vic lm ny tn km nhiu thi gian v chi ph (Anderson & Gerbing, 1988) 1 . Trong nhng trng hp nh vy th Bootstrap l phng php ph hp thay th (Schumacker & Lomax, 2006). Bootstrap l phng php ly mu lp li c thay th, trong mu ban u ng vai tr l m ng. V d, t m ng (mu ban u) c 200 quan st. Vi d liu ca mu ban u, ta s tnh ton c cc c lng (cc trng s hi quy) nh mc 4. Trong Bootstrap, my tnh s chn ra nhng mu khc v d 500 mu khc chng hn theo phng php lp li, v c thay th. V mi mt mu lp li c th c cng s quan st vi s quan st ban u: 200. V theo bn nh vy th trong mt mu m Bootstrap chn ra, c khi no c 2 hay nhiu quan st trng nhau khng? D nhin l hon ton c th c iu xy ra. V t 500 mu ny c th tnh c trung bnh ca cc c lng (cc trng s hi quy). Hiu s gia trung bnh cc c lng t Bootstrap v cc c lng ban u gi l chch. Tr tuyt i cc chch ny cng nh, cng khng c ngha thng k cng tt.
Khai bo tnh ton Bootstrap? View\ Analysis Properties

Hnh 5.1

Chn nt

tnh ton.

By gi, ngoi cc c lng bnh thng, s c thm cc c lng bng Bootstrap

1

Trch t Th & Trang (2008, 56)

54

Hnh 5.2

Hnh5.3

Khi ang chn chut ti Standardized Regression Weights, bn hy nhp chut vo mc Bootstrap standard errors.

55

S c kt qu nh Hnh 5.4 Hnh 5. 4

Parameter

trungthanh trungthanh trungthanh

<<<-

luong_thuong lanhdao thangtien

Estimate 0.436 0.229 0.278

SE 0.105 0.125 0.132

SE-SE 0.003 0.004 0.004

Mean 0.432 0.236 0.274

Bias -0.004 0.007 -0.004

SEBias 0.005 0.006 0.006

CR -0.800 1.167 -0.667

Ct Estimate cho thy c lng bnh thng vi phng php ML, Cc ct cn li c tnh t phng php Bootstrap. Ct Mean cho ta trung bnh cc c lng Bootstrap. Bias ( chnh) bng ct Mean tr ct Estimate. Ct CR t tnh bng Excel bng cch ly ct Mean chia cho ct SE-Bias. Tr tuyt i CR rt nh so vi 2 nn c th ni l chch l rt nh, khng c ngha thng k tin cy 95%. V nh vy, ta c th kt lun l cc c lng trong m hnh (nh Hnh 4.4) c th tin cy c.

56

6. PHN TCH CU TRC A NHM

Gi s bn mun xem xt s nh hng gia lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng trung thnh c khc bit gia nhm nhn vin nam v nhn vin n hay khng th phi lm th no? Ta s thc hin phn tch cu trc a nhm
Qun l cc nhm?

Bn ang m file SEM phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw Hnh 6.1

Nu bn chn File\Data file th s thy nh Hnh 6.2. Hnh 6.2 ny cho thy file d liu s dng trong phn tch l khao sat nhan vien.sav, v ton b cc quan st ang c t chc thnh 1 nhm. Bn mun tch thnh 2 nhm l nhm nam, v nhm n. Click chut vo nt Grouping Variable Chn bin gioitinh

57

Hnh 6.2

Hnh 6.3

58

Hnh 6.4

Sau khi chn xong bin trong mc Grouping Variable, Nhp tip nt Group Value xc nh gi tr phn nhm. Chn m 1 (tng ng vi nhm Nam) v OK Hnh 6.5

Ca s th hin tn cc nhm.

C mt khung nh th hin cc nhm. V by gi mi ch c nhm 1. Vi tn l Group number 1.

59

i tn Group, to Group mi? Chn Analyze\Manage Group Hp thoi nh Hnh 6.7 xut hin. Bn c th thay i ch Group number thnh ch nhom nam. Sau bm New to nhm mi tn l nhom nu.

Hnh 6.6

Hnh 6.7

Hnh 6.8

a d liu u vo cho Nhom nu?

Hy lm li thao tc File\Data files Bn s thy c sn tn Nhom nu mc group name; Chn Nhom nu. Sau xc nh File Name cho nhm ny, xc nh bin phn nhm l gioitinh, v gi tr phn nhm l 2 (Hnh 6.9)

60

Hnh 6.9

Chn OK
a vo Title ghi ch cc m hnh trong phn tch a nhm?

Chn Nt , r chut n v tr thch hp G vo cc dng Macro nh Hnh 6.10 Hnh 6.10

61

Bn hy th nhp vo tn cc nhm tng ng trong ca s th hin tn nhm. S ng dn bn phi s hin ra tng ng. V sau ny kt qu nu c tnh ton cng s c hin ra tng ng vi nhm m bn chn. (Xem Hnh 6.11) Hnh 6.11

Nhp vo tn nhm tng ng

62

Hnh 6.12

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6

1

lanh dao

e23
1

e22
1

e21
1

sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4

1

loy3 loy2 loy1

1

thang tien

trung thanh
1

e24

e13 e14 e15

1 1 1

pay4 pay5 ben4

1

luong thuong

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nu Model Specification

63

Hnh 6.13

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6

1

lanh dao

e23
1

e22
1

e21
1

sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4

1

loy3 loy2 loy1

1

thang tien

trung thanh
1

e24

e13 e14 e15

1 1 1

pay4 pay5 ben4

1

luong thuong

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nam Model Specification

Phng php chung trong phn tch cu trc a nhm l g?

Phng php phn tch cu trc a nhm so snh m hnh nghin cu theo cc nhm no ca mt bin nh tnh. Chng hn nh: bn c th so snh m hnh th hin tc ng ca lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng trung thnh theo nhm gii tnh (nam/ n), theo nhm tui (nhm tr / khng tr), nhm ngnh (ti chnh ngn hng/ khng phi ti chnh ngn hng) Trong v d ang xt, so snh m hnh nghin cu gia nhm nam v nhm n. u tin ngi ta s lm 2 m hnh: M hnh kh bin, v m hnh bt bin (tng phn). Trong m hnh kh bin, cc tham s c lng trong tng m hnh ca cc nhm khng b rng buc (Xem Hnh 6.14). Trong m hnh bt bin, thnh phn o lng khng b rng buc nhng cc mi quan h gia cc khi nim trong m hnh nghin cu c rng buc c gi tr nh nhau cho tt c cc nhm (Xem Hnh 6.15) 64

Hnh 6.14 M hnh kh bin Nhm Nam

lanh dao

1Nam 2Nam 3Nam

trung thanh

lanh dao

Nhm N 1N

2N
thang tien

thang tien

trung thanh

3N
luong thuong

luong thuong

Hnh 6.15 M hnh bt bin

lanh dao

Nhm Nam 1Nam

lanh dao

Nhm N 1N = 1Nam

2Nam
thang tien

trung thanh

2N = 2Nam
thang tien

trung thanh

3Nam
luong thuong luong thuong

3N = 3Nam

Kim nh Chi-square c s dng so snh gia 2 m hnh. Nu kim nh Chi-square cho thy gia m hnh bt bin v m hnh kh bin khng c s khc bit (P-value > 0.05) th m hnh bt bin s c chn (c bc t do cao hn). Ngc li, nu s khc bit Chisquare l c ngha gia hai m hnh (P-value<0.05) th chn m hnh kh bin (c tng thch cao hn). (Xem Th & Trang, 2008, 208). By gi chng ta bt u c lng m hnh kh bin, m hnh bt bin, v so snh gia 2 m hnh.
Bc 1. c lng m hnh kh bin Files s ng dn m bn ang m l Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw D liu m bn s dng cho n cng c tch thnh hai nhm Nhm nam, v Nhm n. Hnh 6.12, Hnh 6.13 l 2 s ca nhm nam v nhm n th hin M hnh kh bin

65

Trc khi tnh ton, bn hy chn Views\ Analysis Properties v nh du chn nh sau trong tab Output. Tab Estimation bn hy mc nh l phng php Maximum Likelihood, Tab Bootstrap bn khng cn nh du chn g c. Hnh 6.16

Bn ch cn nhp nt

l c th tnh ton.

66

Hnh 6.17
.86 1 .93 1 .73 1 .98 1 .86 1

e1 e2 e3 e4

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 pay4 pay5 ben4
1.04 1.21 .77 1.00 .86 .74 .86

Chi-square= 275.655 ; df= 162 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.702 ; GFI= .859 ; TLI = .906 ; CFI = .927 ; RMSEA= .060 1.52
1.45 1.92 1 1.03 1

lanh dao
.41 .90 1.34

e23
1

e22

e21

e5 1.41 e6
.08 1

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00 1.09 1.15

e7
-.15

.38 1 1.84 1 .81 1 .95 1 .52 1 1.39 1

thang tien
.83 1.00 .72 .93

.87

.00

trung thanh
1 .44

e8 e9

.38

.03

e24
1.96

e13 e14 e15

luong thuong
1.00

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nam Unstandardized estimates

Chi-square= 275.655 ; df= 162 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.702 ; GFI= .859 ; TLI = .906 ; CFI = .927 ; RMSEA= .060 1.43
.74 1.45 1 .60 1

1.00

Hnh 6.18
e1 e2 e3 e4
.57 1 .99 1 .70 1 .76 1 1.26 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 pay4 pay5 ben4
.78 .75 1.05 1.00 .98 .56 .96

lanh dao
.09 1.15 2.03

e23 e22
1

e21

e5 1.58 e6
.47

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00 .89 .88

e7
-.38

.95 1 .97 1 .43 1 .82 1 .52 1 2.19 1

thang tien
.69 1.00 .74 1.59 .63

.42

.55

trung thanh
1 .67

e8 e9

.51

-.30

e24 luong thuong

1.72

e13 e14 e15

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nu Unstandardized estimates

67

1.00

Chn nt View Text th hin ca s Amos Output Hnh 6.19

Hnh 6.20

68

Bc 2. c lng m hnh bt bin Bn hy lu li file s Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw. Sau lu li (Save as) vi mt tn khc Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh2.amw

Ta s xy dng m hnh bt bin (tng phn)

Bm nt

bt u chn i tng no

Chn mi tn 1 chiu t khi nim lnh o hng n khi nim trung thnh, Click phi chut, Chn Object Properties (Hnh 6.21) Hnh 6.21

Hp thoi Object Properties xut hin, Chn th Parameters. Nhp Ch Beta1 (bn c th nhp ch khc cng c) vo Regression weight, v nh du chn All groups rng buc h s ng dn trn mi tn ny bng nhau nhm nam v nhm n v bng Beta1. (Hnh 6.22) Bn hy nhp chut tng t vo cc mi tn t thng tin n trung thnh, t lng thng n trung thnh, v nhp Beta2, Beta3. (ch nh nh du chn All groups) V by gi, S nh Hnh 6.23. l m hnh bt bin

69

Hnh 6.22

Hnh 6.23

e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e13 e14 e15

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6

1 Beta1

lanh dao

e23
1

e22
1

e21
1

sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 pay4 pay5 ben4

1 1 Beta3

loy3 loy2 loy1

1

thang tien

Beta2

trung thanh
1

e24 luong thuong

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nam Model Specification

70

Lu li file s , nhp nt Hnh 6.24

e1 e2 e3 e4
.84 1 .92 1 .73 1 .99 1 .87 1

l c th tnh ton. Kt qu nh sau

Chi-square= 285.837 ; df= 165 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.732 ; GFI= .854 ; TLI = .901 ; CFI = .923 ; RMSEA= .061 1.50
1.43 1.97 1 1.06 1

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 pay4 pay5 ben4
1.11 1.26 .77 1.00 .87 .75 .86

lanh dao
.23 .85 1.11

e23
1

e22

e21

e5 1.48 e6
.20 1

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00 .97 1.03

e7
-.01

.57 1 1.73 1 .94 1 .92 1 .53 1 1.44 1

thang tien
.96 1.00 .64 .96

.83

.35

trung thanh
1 .55

e8 e9

.44

.01

e24
1.82

e13 e14 e15

luong thuong
1.04

Hnh 6.25
e1 e2 e3 e4
.58 1 .99 1 .70 1 .75 1 1.26 1 1

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nam Unstandardized estimates

Chi-square= 285.837 ; df= 165 ; P= .000 ; Chi-square/df = 1.732 ; GFI= .854 ; TLI = .901 ; CFI = .923 ; RMSEA= .061 1.44
.78 1.46 .56 1

1.00

sup3 sup4 sup5 sup6 sup7 prom1 prom2 prom3 prom4 pay4 pay5 ben4
.74 .72 1.05 1.00 .97 .56 .96

lanh dao
.23 1.18 2.15

e23
1

e22
1

e21

e5 1.64 e6
.47

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00 .93 .93

e7
-.42

.94 1 1.00 1 .34 1 .81 1 .55 1 2.18 1

thang tien
.66 1.00 .85 1.41 .80

.47

.35

trung thanh
1 .68

e8 e9

.44

-.29

e24 luong thuong

1.52

e13 e14 e15

Phan tich da nhom Nhom nu Unstandardized estimates

1.00

71

Hnh 6.26 Trng s hi quy trong m hnh bt bin ca nhm nam

Hnh 6.27

Trong Hnh 6.24, 6.25; Hnh 6.26, 6.27; bn c thy cc h s Beta1, Beta2, Beta3 c 2 nhm nam va n u bng nhau khng? Nhn vo cc kt qu tnh ton dng bng s liu, bn c nhn nh g v mi quan h gia lng thng, lnh o, thng tin vi trung thnh? Cc mi quan h ny u c ngha thng k tin cy 95%.

72

Bc 3. So snh s khc bit gia hai m hnh

By gi, bn chn m hnh kh bin, hay m hnh bt bin? Ta i kim tra gi thuyt sau Ho: Chi-square ca m hnh kh bin bng Chi-square ca m hnh bt bin H1: C s khc bit v Chi-square gia m hnh kh bin v m hnh bt bin Bn hy m file Excel. Hnh 6.28

Phn trn cp: Kim nh Chi-square c s dng so snh gia 2 m hnh. Nu kim nh Chi-square cho thy gia m hnh bt bin v m hnh kh bin khng c s khc bit (P-value > 0.05) th m hnh bt bin s c chn (c bc t do cao hn). Ngc li, nu s khc bit Chi-square l c ngha gia hai m hnh (P-value<0.05) th chn m hnh kh bin (c tng thch cao hn). (Xem Th & Trang, 2008, 208). Nh vy, P-value = 0.017 (<0.05) nn bn bc b gi thuyt Ho. Chp nhn H1. Ni cch khc l C s khc bit v Chi-square gia m hnh kh bin, v m hnh bt bin. V bn s chn m hnh kh bin. Khi chn m hnh kh bin, ta c th a ra kt lun l C s khc bit trong mi nh hng gia lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng trung thnh gia nhm nhn vin nam, v nhm nhn vin n. Trong Hnh 6.19, bn thy rng vi nhm nam, yu t thng tin khng tc ng n lng trung thnh v P-value = 0.978 (>0.05). Nhng vi nhm n (Hnh 6.20) yu t thng tin li tc ng n lng trung thnh (P-value<0.05). Ta cng thy rng, vi nhm nam, yu t lnh o c nh hng n lng trung thnh (P-value=0.002), nhng vi nhm n th khng (Pvalue=0.521).

73

LI KT SEM rt hu ch cho cc nghin cu thuc lnh vc khoa hc hnh vi ni chung (n cng hu ch vi nhiu lnh vc khc), v AMOS cng rt d s dng. SEM vi AMOS khng qu phc tp khi bn tip cn di gc ng dng. Nu bn hiu c hi quy trong kinh t lng truyn thng th SEM cng d dng vy thi. Bi ging ny trnh by nhng vn quan trng nht (nhiu ngi nghin cu thng s dng) trong thc hnh SEM vi AMOS, cc vn khc bn c th t hc thm. iu quan trng hn c l hy p dng SEM vo nghin cu ca bn, vo cng vic ca bn sao cho hiu qu (khi cn) Bui hc hm nay l bui hc cui ca lp bi dng c nhn ti nng nn ti mun ni vi iu vi cc bn. Qua s gp g vi cc anh ch, cc bn cu sinh vin, ti hiu rng: d ngh nghip sau ny ca bn c l ngi lm nghin cu, l ngi hoch nh chnh sch, l doanh nhn, l nhn vin cc cng ty/t chc th nhng iu bn hc trong lp hc ny v trong cc mn phng php nghin cu, phn tch d liu v d bo (m cc ging vin ca kho hc ny c dp tham gia hng dn cc bn), , nhng iu bn tri nghim trong qu trnh lm cc ti NCKH sinh vin lun c ch vi bn. Lm NCKH sinh vin l dp bn gn l thuyt vi thc t, t hc nhiu hn, c ng lc hn trong hc tp Qua qu trnh y bn cng trng thnh hn, cng t c nhng iu m bn ang kht khao, ang mun khm ph; v chc chn bn s c thm nhng k nim tht p ca mt thi sinh vin. Cng ng my mc khi ch p dng cc nghin cu nh lng, cng ng qu ch quan khi a ra cc quyt nh ch da vo cc nghin cu nh lng. Nghin cu ca bn c tham kho cc tp ch quc t v t c c cc chun mc quc t trong nghin cu nhng n kh th c sc sng, v nhng gi chnh sch hp l khi bn khng su st, c xt vi ngi dn, vi doanh nghip, vi th trng, vi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v thiu mt ci tm, mt dng kh ca ngi lm nghin cu. Trong nm hc ny, nm ti, v sau ny, cc ging vin chng ti lun hy vng cc bn s l nhng ng lc cho cc ngnh khoa hc kinh t-qun tr cn rt non tr v cn nhiu iu khm ph Vit Nam. Bi v, chng ti thy mt nhm sinh vin ngnh thm nh gi ang lm mt ti v M hnh thm nh gi tr tng thm ca thng hiu xanh, v thm nh gi cc m ti nguyn; mt s bn sinh vin ngnh k hoch u t ang kho st cc doanh nghip v c lng vn l chn thu nhm cung cp d liu u vo cho cc cng ty t vn d n, nhng ngi thm nh d n; hay ti p dng m hnh TGARCH cho th trng chng khon, th trng vng VN; mt nhm bn lp Thm nh gi, bt ng sn ang nghin cu v Bong bng th trng bt ng sn VN Nhiu thanh nin Trung Quc (TQ) hin nay ang c mt phng chm l lm g ngi ta phi knh n TQ, TQ phi l nc b ch ton cu hay tng t nh vy! Trong dp i Sapa cng tc, tin gh qua du lch mt a phng bn kia bin gii TQ, anh hng dn vin ch ti mt biu trng ca Trung Quc rt cao (chng 15m) v gii thch l mt bn tay nm ly c tri t! Rt nhiu khch du lch Vit Nam n chp hnh bn cnh biu trng y, cn mt vi thy gio trong on th khng, nht quyt khng! Bn c bit ngi TQ mun ni iu g vi th gii qua biu trng y khng? Ti khng bit iu suy ngh ca nhiu thanh nin TQ (c th xut pht t mt s lnh o TQ) c tt hay khng; nhng ti mong bn c mt tnh yu t nc, yu con ngi, yu ho bnh ch khng mun cc bn c nhng suy ngh dn tc hp hi, hay suy ngh rng mt dn tc c th gim chn ln cc dn tc khc nh nhiu bn thanh nin TQ y! Hy lm iu g c ch cho c cng ng, cho con ngi ni chung v c nhiu bn b quc t yu mn, qu trng! Xin chn thnh cm n cc bn tham gia kho hc! Cc thy c gio chng ti cm thy rt vui, rt t ho khi c trao i, hng dn cc bn trong thi gian qua. V chng ti cng mong mi rng cc bn sinh vin s cm thy t tin, t ho khi tng hc tp mt trng i hc ca Vit Nam (vi cc bn, l Trng H Kinh t TPHCM) d sau ny bn c hc tp thm, v lm vic bt c ni u trn tri t ny. Chc bn thnh cng!

74

Ti liu tham kho Anderson, J.C & Gerbing, D.W (1988) Structural Equation Modeling in practice: a review and recommended two-step approach, Psychological Bulletin, 103 (3): 411-423 Arbuckle, J.L (2008), AMOS 16 User's Guide, SPSS Inc Albright, J.J (2006), Confirmatory Factor Analysis using AMOS, LISREL, AND MPLUS, The Trustees of Indiana University, www.indiana.edu/~statmath Bentler, P. M. & Bonett, D. G., (1980), Significane tests and goodness of fit in the analysis of covariance structures, Psychological Bulletin, Vol 80, 600 Carmines, E. & McIver, J., (1981) Analyzing models with unobserved variables: analysis of covariance structures, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 65 115 Trn Th Kim Dung, Trn Hoi Nam (2005), Nhu cu, s tho mn ca nhn vin v mc gn kt i vi t chc, ti NCKH Cp b, Trng H Kinh t TPHCM Gerbing W.D. & Anderson, J.C (1988), An update paradigm for scale development incorporating unidimensionality and its assessment, Journal of Marketing Research, 25(2): 186-192 Hair, Anderson, Tatham, Black (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, Prentical-Hall International, Inc. Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson, Tatham (2006), Multivariate Data Analysis, Prentical-Hall International, Inc. Nguyn Trng Hoi (2001), M hnh ho v d bo chui thi gian trong kinh doanh & kinh t, NXB HQG TPHCM Jabnoun & Al-Tamimi (2003) Measuring perceived service quality at UAE commercial banks, International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, (20), 4 Nunnally & Burnstein (1994) Pschychometric Theory, 3rd edition, NewYork, McGraw Hill Pont, M., Mc Quilken, L. (2002), Testing the Fit of the BANKSERV Model BANKPERF, ANZMAC 2002 Conference Proccedings, Deankin University Steiger, J, H., (1990), Structural Modeling Evaluation and Modification: An Interval Estimation Approach, Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol.25 , 176 Schumacker, R. E. & Lomax, R. G. (2006), A beginners guide to Structural Equation Modeling, Lawrence Erlbaum associates, publisher, London Nguyn nh Th, Nguyn Th Mai Trang (2008), Nghin cu khoa hc marketing - ng dng m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh SEM, NXB HQG TPHCM Hong Trng, Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc (2008) Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, NXB Hng c

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PHIEU KHAO SAT VE MC O THOA MAN CUA NHAN VIEN

Ph lc 1

PHAN I. Anh/ch vui long cho biet mc o ong y cua mnh ve cac phat bieu di ay. oi vi moi phat bieu, anh ch hay cach anh dau X vao mot trong cac cac con so t 1 en 7; theo quy c la 1:hoan toan khong ong y,.. , 4:phan van, , 7:hoan toan ong y; So cang ln la anh/ch cang ong y. Ma so Cac phat bieu Mc o ong y

work 1 work 2 work 3 work 4 pay 1 pay 2 pay 3 pay 4 pay 5 ben 1 ben 2 ben 3 ben 4 env 1 env 2 env 3 env 4 cow 1 cow 2 cow 3 cow 4

Cong viec cho phep anh/ch s dung tot cac nang lc ca nhan Cong viec rat thu v Cong viec co nhieu thach thc Khi cong viec hoan thanh tot, se c cong ty rat hoan nghenh Anh/ ch c tra lng cao Anh/ ch thng c tang lng Anh/ ch co the song hoan toan da vao thu nhap t cong ty Tien lng tng xng vi ket qua lam viec Tien lng, thu nhap c tra cong bang Cong ty co che o phuc li tot Cong ty thc hien che o bao hiem xa hoi tot Cong ty thc hien che o bao hiem y te tot Anh ch hai long vi che o tien thng cua cong ty Cong viec khong b ap lc cao Cong viec khong oi hoi thng xuyen phai lam ngoai gi Trang thiet b ni lam viec an toan, sach se Cong viec on nh, khong phai lo lang ve mat viec lam ong nghiep cua anh/ch thoai mai va de chu Anh/ ch va cac ong nghiep phoi hp lam viec tot Nhng ngi ma anh/ ch lam viec vi thng giup lan nhau Anh/ ch cam thay co nhieu ong lc trau doi chuyen mon khi c lam viec vi cac ong nghiep cua mnh Anh/ ch c biet nhng ieu kien e c thang tien Cong ty tao cho anh ch nhieu c hoi thang tien Anh/ ch c cung cap kien thc/ ky nang can thiet cho cong viec Cong ty tao cho anh/ch nhieu c hoi phat trien ca nhan

1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6

7 7 7 7

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

prom1 prom2 Prom3 Prom4

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sup 1 sup 2 sup 3 sup 4 sup 5 sup 6 sup 7

Cap tren hoi y kien anh/ch khi co van e lien quan en cong viec cua anh/ch Cap tren khuyen khch cap di tham gia vao nhng quyet nh quan trong Nhan vien c s ho tr cua cap tren Cong ty hoat ong co hieu qua Nhan vien c ton trong va tin cay trong cong viec Lanh ao co tac phong lch s, hoa nha Nhan vien c oi x cong bang, khong phan biet

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PHAN II. Anh/ch vui long cho biet mc o ong y cua mnh ve cac phat bieu di ay
loy1 loy2 loy3 Anh/ch co y nh lai lau dai cung cong ty Neu co ni khac co li e ngh lng bong tng oi hap dan hn, anh/ch van se lai cung cong ty Ve nhieu phng dien, anh ch coi cong ty la mai nha th hai cua mnh 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 5 6 4 5 6 7 7 7

PHAN III. Xin vui long cho biet oi net ve cong viec va ban than anh/ch 1. Bo phan cong tac cua anh ch trong cong ty : 2. V tr cong tac cua anh ch thuoc nhom: Nhan vien cac bo phan Can bo quan ly cac bo phan (to trng) Trng/pho phong ban hoac tng ng 3. Gii tnh: Nam N 4. Trnh chuyen mon: Trung cap Cao ang ai hoc Sau ai hoc 5. Tuoi i cua anh/ch:tuoi 6. Thi gian lam viec tai cong ty: Di 5 nam T 5-<10 nam T 10 - <15 nam Tren 15 nam 7. Thu nhap trung bnh/thang cua anh ch (tnh ca cac khoan ngoai lng) thuoc nhom: <3 tr T 3 -<5 tr T 5 <7tr T 7 tr tr len

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Ph lc 2 Xin gii thiu vi bn c bi vit sau y ca tc gi Phm c K - Ging vin Khoa Qun L Cng Nghip, i hc Bch Khoa TPHCM Tm lc l thuyt v SEM 1 Phm c K

Phn ny tm tt ngn gn v khng thin v c tnh k thut ca cc vn cn bn c lin quan trong SEM, bao gm cc vn c lng, thch hp m hnh, v cc gi thit thng k. SEM (Structural Equation Modelling) l mt k thut m hnh thng k rt tng qut, c s dng rng ri trong khoa hc nghin cu hnh vi. N c th c xem l s kt hp ca phn tch nhn t v hi quy hay phn tch ng dn. S quan tm trong SEM thng l vo cc kin trc l thuyt (cc khi nim l thuyt), c trnh by bi cc nhn t ngm (cc khi nim tim n). Cc quan h gia cc kin trc l thuyt c trnh by bi cc h s hi quy hay h s ng dn gia cc nhn t. SEM m ch 1 cu trc ca cc hip tng quan (covariances_hip phng sai) gia cc bin c quan st, cc quan h ny cho ra mt tn khc l m hnh ha cu trc hip tng quan (covariance structure modeling_m hnh cu trc hip phng sai). Tuy nhin, m hnh c th c m rng thm bao gm trung bnh ca cc bin quan st c hoc cc nhn t trong m hnh, lm cho tn m hnh ha cu trc hip tng quan t chnh xc. Nhiu nh nghin cu ch n gin ngh m hnh loi ny l cc m hnh Lisrel, iu ny cng t chnh xc. LISREL l ch vit tt ca Linear Structural RELations (cc quan h cu trc tuyn tnh), v tn ny c Jreskog s dng cho mt trong nhng chng trnh (phn mm) SEM u tin thng dng nht. Cc m hnh phng trnh cu trc ngy nay khng nht thit phi tuyn tnh, v kh nng m rng ca SEM xa hn phng trnh Lisrel ban u. V d, Browne (1993) tho lun kh nng lm thch hp cc ng cong phi tuyn. SEM cung cp mt khung thun tin v rt tng qut cho cc phn tch thng k bao gm cc th tc a bin truyn thng, v d cc trng hp c bit l phn tch nhn t, phn tch hi quy, phn tch phn bit, v tng quan canonical. SEM thng c minh ha bng biu ng dn (s ng dn). Phng trnh thng k ny thng c trnh by trong mt h phng trnh ma trn. Trong u thp nin 70, khi k thut ny c gii thiu ln u trong nghin cu x hi v nghin cu hnh vi, phn mm thng yu cu ci t ch r m hnh theo iu kin ca nhng ma trn ny. Do , cc nh nghin cu phi lc vic trnh by ma trn t biu ng dn, v cung cp phn mm vi 1 chui ma trn cho cc tp hp tham s khc nhau, nh l h s nhn t v cc h s hi quy. Cc phn mm c pht trin gn y cho php cc nh nghin cu ch nh trc tip m hnh nh l 1 biu ng dn. Vic ny hiu qu vi cc vn n gin, nhng c th gy mt mi i vi cc m hnh c tnh phc tp hn. V l do ny, phn mm SEM hin ti cng vn h tr cc c tnh k thut ca m hnh loi cu lnh-hay ma trn. Path analysis (phn tch ng dn) l k thut thng k dng kim tra quan h nhn qu gia hai hay nhiu bin (bin quan st). Da trn h thng phng trnh tuyn tnh. Path analysis l thnh phn ph ca SEM, mt th tc a bin m theo nh ngha ca
1

Ngun: http://www.mba-15.com Ghi ch: nhng ch c in nghing m v trong ngoc n l do ti b sung thm, thng nht cc thut ng thng dng nhm gip bn c thun li hn.

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Ullman (1996), cho php kim tra mt tp quan h gia mt hay nhiu bin c lp, hoc l lin tc hoc l ri rc, v mt hay nhiu bin ph thuc, hoc l lin tc hoc l ri rc. SEM lin quan n cc bin o lng c (measured variable) v cc bin ngm (latent variable_bin tim n). Mt measured variable l mt bin c th c quan st trc tip v c o lng. Bin o lng c cng c bit n nh bin quan st c (observed variable), bin ch bo hay bin biu th (indicator or manifest variables). Mt latent variable l mt bin khng th c quan st trc tip v phi c suy ra t measured variable. Latent variables c m ch bi hip tng quan (covariances) gia hai hay nhiu measured variables. Chng cng c bit n nh l cc nhn t (ngha l, phn tch nhn t), cc bin kin trc hay cc bin khng quan st c (constructs or unobserved variables). SEM l s kt hp gia hi quy a bin v phn tch nhn t. Path analysis ch lin quan n cc bin o lng (measured variables).
CC THNH PHN CA SEM

C hai thnh phn: m hnh o lng (measurement model) v m hnh cu trc (structural model). + Measurement model: lin quan n quan h gia measured variables v latent variables. + Structural model: ch lin quan n cc quan h gia cc latent variables m thi. K hiu trong SEM: - Cc bin o lng c: hnh ch nht hay vung - Cc bin ngm: elp hay hnh trn - Cc khon sai s: (nhiu ca cc bin ngm) c a vo biu SEM, i din bi Es cho cc bin o lng v Ds cho cc bin ngm. Cc khon sai s i din phng sai phn d trong cc bin khng c tnh cho cc ng dn (pathways) c gi thit trong m hnh. Tham s ca SEM: - L cc bin, h s hi quy v hip tng quan gia cc bin. - Phng sai c th c ch ra bng mi tn hai u kt thc ti cng mt bin, hoc n gin hn, k hiu bng s trong hp v bin hay cung trn. - Cc h s hi quy c trnh by dc theo mi tn mt chiu ch ra ng dn c gi thit gia hai bin (c trng s c p dng cho cc bin trong cc phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh) - Hip phng sai c kt hp vi cc mi tn vng cung hai u gia hai bin hoc cc sai s v biu th v hng (no directionality). Data cho SEM l cc phng sai mu v hip phng sai mu ly t tng th (k hiu S, phng sai mu quan st c v ma trn hip phng sai).
KIN TRC SEM

Mc tiu trong vic xy dng 1 s ng n (path diagram) hay m hnh phng trnh cu trc, l tm mt m hnh thch hp vi d liu (S) phc v nh l 1 i din c ch ca tin cy v gii thch chi tit d liu.

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C 5 bc trong kin trc SEM: 1. Ch nh m hnh (Model Specification) 2. Nhn dng m hnh (Model Identification) 3. c lng m hnh (Model Estimation) 4. nh gi thch hp ca m hnh (Assesing Fit of the Model) 5. Hiu chnh m hnh (Model Modification)
Ch nh m hnh (Model Specification)

L vic chnh thc bt u mt m hnh. Trong bc ny, cc tham s c xc nh l c nh hay t do. Tham s c nh (fixed parameters) khng c c lng t d liu v c gn mt cch tiu biu bng 0 (ch ra khng c quan h gia cc bin). Cc ng dn ca cc tham s c nh c gn nhn s (tr khi c gn gi tr l 0, trong trng hp ny khng c ng dn no c v) trong biu SEM. Tham s t do (Free parameters) c c lng t d liu quan st v c ngi iu tra tin rng n khc 0. Vic xc nh tham s no l c nh hay t do trong SEM l rt quan trng v n xc nh tham s no s c s dng so snh biu gi thuyt vi ma trn hip phng sai v phng sai tng th mu trong vic kim tra tnh thch hp ca m hnh (bc 4). Vic chn tham s no l c nh v tham s no l t do ty thuc vo ngi nghin cu. S la chn ny trnh by mt gi thuyt tin v ng xu hng trong h thng l quan trng trong th h ca cu trc lin quan ca h thng c quan st (v d, phng sai mu c quan st v ma trn hip phng sai).
Nhn dng m hnh (Model Identification)

Vic nhn dng quan tm n vic c hay khng gi tr duy nht cho mi v mi tham s t do c th thu thp c t d liu quan st. N ph thuc vo vic la chn m hnh v c tnh k thut ca cc tham s c nh, rng buc v t do. Mt tham s b rng buc khi n trong mt tp hp vi cc tham s khc. Cc m hnh cn phi c nhn dng hon chnh c th c lng c (bc 3) v kim nh gi thuyt v quan h gia cc bin. C cc dng m hnh c cu trc l just-identified, overidentified, hay underidentified. + just-identified model: trong tng ng 1-1 gia data v cc tham s cu trc. Ngha l, s phng sai d liu v s hip phng sai bng vi s tham s c c lng. Tuy nhin, mc du kh nng ca m hnh l t c mt gii php duy nht cho tt c cc tham s, just-identified model khng c s quan tm ca khoa hc gia v bi n khng c t do v do khng th b loi b. + Overidentified model: l m hnh trong s tham s c th c lng c th nh hn s im d liu (data points) (ngha l, phng sai, hip tng quan ca cc bin quan st c). Tnh trng ny to kt qu ra t do dng cho php loi b m hnh, do c s dng mt cch khoa hc hn. Mc ch ca SEM l ch ra mt m hnh nh vy p ng cc tiu chun ca overidentification. + Underidentified model: l m hnh trong s tham s c c lng vt qu s phng sai v hip tng quan. Nh vy, m hnh bao gm thng tin khng ngha (t d

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liu u vo) cho vic t c 1 gii php xc nh v c lng tham s; ngha l, v s cc gii php l kh d cho 1 underidentified model.
c lung m hnh (Model Estimation)

Trong bc ny, cc gi tr khi u ca tham s t do c chn sinh ra 1 ma trn hip tng quan tng th c c lng (estimated population covariance matrix), S(q), t m hnh. Cc gi tr khi u c th c chn bi ngi nghin cu t thng tin ban u, bi cc chng trnh my tnh c s dng xy dng SEM, hay t phn tch hi quy a bin. Mc tiu ca c lng l sinh ra mt S(q) hi t trn ma trn hip tng quan tng th quan st c, S, vi ma trnphn d (residual matrix) (khc bit gia S(q) v S) tr nn ti thiu. Nhiu phng php c th c s dng sinh ra S(q). Vic chn cc phng php c hng dn bng c tnh ca data bao gm kch thc v phn phi mu. Hu ht cc tin trnh c s dng l lp. Hnh thc tng qut ca hm ti thiu l: Q = (s - s(q))W(s - s(q)) Trong : s = vector bao gm phng sai v hip phng sai ca cc bin quan st c. s(q) = vector bao gm cc phng sai corresponding v hip phng sai nh c d on bi m hnh. W = ma trn trng s (mt vi tc gi xem Q nh l F) Ma trn trng s, W, trong hm trn, ph hp vi phng php c lng c chn. W c chn ti thiu Q, v Q(N-1) cho vic thch hp hm, trong hu ht cc trng hp mt thng k phn phi X2. Kt qu thc hin ca X2 b nh hng bi kch thc mu, sai s phn phi, nhn t phn phi, v gi thit rng cc nhn t v sai s l c lp (Ullman 1996). Mt vi phng php c lung c s dng thng dng nht l:
Generalized Least squares (GLS) FGLS = tr[([S - S(q)]W-1)2] Trong : tr = ton t theo di (trace operator), cng cc yu t trn ng cho chnh ca ma trn W-1 = ma trn trng s ti u, phi c chn bi nh nghin cu (chn la thng thng nht l S-1) Maximum Likelihood (ML) FML = log|S| - log|S| + tr(SS-1) - p Trong trng hp ny, W = S-1v p = s lng bin c o lng Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) Estimator (Hm c lng t do phn phi tim cn) FADF = [S - s(q)]W-1[S - s(q)] W, trong hm ny, bao gm cc yu t xem xt trong kurtosis.

Ullman (1996) v Hoyle (1995) tho lun v cc thun li v gii hn ca cc hm c lng trn y. ML v GLS hu ch cho d liu phn phi chun khi cc nhn t v sai s l c lp, ADF

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hu ch cho cc d liu khng phn phi chun, nhng ch c gi tr khi kch thc mu ln hn 2.500. Ullman ch ra hm c lng tt nht cho d liu khng phn phi chun v/hoc ph thuc gia cc nhn t v sai s l Scaled ML. Bt k hm no c chn, kt qu mong i ca tin trnh c lng l t c mt hm thch hp gn n 0. Mt hm thch hp vi s im l 0 ch ra rng ma trn hip phng sai c c lng ca m hnh v ma trn hip phng sai mu nguyn thy l tng ng.
nh gi thch hp ca m hnh (Assesing Fit of the Model)

Nh phn tch, gi tr hm thch hp gn n 0 c mong i cho thch hp m hnh. Tuy nhin, ni chung, nu t s gia X2v bc t do nh hn 3, m hnh l thch hp tt (Ullman 1996). c tin cy trong kim nh thch hp m hnh, kch thc mu t 100 n 200 c yu cu (Hoyle 1995). Ullman (1996) tho lun s a dng ca cc hm thch hp phn phi khng-X2, m ng ta gi l cc ch s thch hp so snh (comparative fit indices.) Hoyle (1995) cp n iu ny nh cc ch s thch hp ph thuc (adjunct fit indices). Mt cch cn bn, nhng phng php ny so snh thch hp ca mt m hnh c lp (mt m hnh khng nh khng c quan h gia cc bin) thch hp m hnh c c lng. Kt qu ca vic so snh ny th thng l mt s gia 0 v 1, vi 0.90 hoc ln hn c chp nhn nh l cc gi tr ch ra thch hp. C Hoyle v Ullman ngh s dng nhiu ch s khi xc nh cc thch hp m hnh.
Hiu chnh m hnh (Model Modification)

Nu ma trn phng sai/hip phng sai c c lng bng m hnh khng m phng mt cch thch hp ma trn phng sai/hip phng sai mu, cc gi thuyt c th c hiu chnh v m hnh c kim nh li. iu chnh 1 m hnh, cc ng dn mi c v thm hay cc ng dn c c b i. Ni cch khc, cc tham s c thay i t c nh ti t do hoc t t do n c nh. iu quan trng nh l khi trong cc th tc thng k khc, l vic hiu chnh m hnh sau vic kim nh ln u lm gia tng c hi ca vp phi sai lm loi I. Cc th tc thng thng c s dng cho vic hiu chnh m hnh l Lagrange Multiplier Index (LM) v Kim nh Wald. C hai loi kim nh ny bo co cc thay i trong gi tr X2 khi cc ng dn c iu chnh. LM yu cu d c hay khng vic gia tng cc tham s t do gia tng s thch hp ca m hnh. Kim nh Wald yu cu c hay khng vic xa b cc tham s t do gia tng s thch hp m hnh. iu chnh t l sai lm loi 1 gia tng, Ullman (1996) yu cu s dng mt gi tr xc sut thp (p<0.01) khi tng thm hay b cc tham s. Ullman cng yu cu so snh gi tr cho (cross-validation) vi cc mu khc. V trt t ca cc tham s t do c th nh hng n vic la chn ca cc tham s khc, LM nn c p dng trc kim nh Wald (ngha

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l, cng thm vo tt c cc tham s trc khi bt u xa chng) (MacCullum 1986, trch dn ca Ullman 1996).
Trnh by m hnh cui cng (Final Presentation of Model)

Khi m hnh t c thch hp chp nhn c, cc c lng ring bit v cc tham s t do c nh gi. Cc tham s t do c so snh vi gi tr rng (null value), s dng thng k phn phi z. Thng k z t c bng cch chia tham s c lng cho sai s chun ca c lng . T l ca kim nh ny phi vt +/-1.96 quan h tr nn c ngha. Sau khi cc quan h ring bit trong m hnh c nh gi, cc c lng tham s c chun ha cho vic trnh by m hnh cui cng. Khi cc c lng tham s c chun ha, chng c th c gii thch tham chiu vi cc tham s khc trong m hnh v cng ca ng xu hng c lin quan trong m hnh c th c so snh.

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Ph lc 3
Nhm to thun li cho bn c khi tm hiu SEM, xin gii thiu vi bn c nghin cu sau y (c p dng SEM) tc gi Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng. Bn nn c thm cc nghin cu khc c pht trong lp, v mt s bi vit di dng file pdf c gi qua email. Tc gi

ca quyn bi ging ny la chn 2 bi nghin cu ny gii thiu vi cc bn bi 2 tc gi ca bi nghin cu vit rt tt, lnh vc lng trung thnh, dch v thng tin di ng cng gn gi vi rt nhiu bn.
Bi vit 1.
Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v thng tin di ng ti Vit Nam

Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng

Khoa Qun l Cng Nghip-HBK TP.HCM

I. GII THIU

Trong bi cnh khi m th trng thng tin di ng (TTD) cc nc cnh tranh mnh m do m ca th trng v gim mnh cc u th ca v th c quyn, vi s tham gia ca nhiu nh cung cp, dng cc chin lc cnh tranh hn hp bao gm cc chin lc v gi cc, cht lng dch v c bn, dch v gia tng, qung co khuyn mi, gim gi v chm sc khch hng (CSKH), to cho h ngy cng c nhiu s la chn, vi xu hng chuyn sang mng khc hp dn hn, tc ng n s bn vng v thu bao ca cc mng di ng. Cc nghin cu thc nghim ti nhiu nc trn th gii trong lnh vc TTD nh n [1], Canada, M[14] v Trung Quc[21], cho thy m hnh cht lng dch v theo Parasuraman v cc m hnh truyn thng khc[9] khng gii thch s tho mn v s trung thnh ca khch hng. Mt s nghin cu gn y ti Bangladesh, Hn Quc, i Loan cp thm mt s nhn t tc ng khc (chi ph vt cht, tinh thn, ri ro, sc hp dn ca dch v thay th, mc mt thit trong quan h c nhn gia khch hng v nh cung cp,..) m khch hng phi cn nhc mi khi c nh chuyn sang nh cung cp khc[10] [22]. Kt qu nghin cu ca tc gi M-K Kim ti Hn Quc cn ch ra rng khch hng mc d tho mn vi cht lng dch v ca nh cung cp hin ti nhng vn chuyn sang nh cung cp khc, hoc s dng nhiu dch v ca nhiu nh cung cp ng thi.Cc tc gi Fornell, 1992; Ahmad & Buttle, 2002 cng cho rng mt khi th trng tr nn cnh tranh quyt lit th chin lc phng th duy tr khch hng hin c cn quan trng hn so vi chin lc cng kch nhm m rng quy m ton b th trng bng n lc gia tng cc khch hng tim nng[12]. Chin lc phng th ca nh cung cp truyn thng Telstra(Australia) trc s thm nhp ca Optus (Anh-M) nm1990 l mt v d in hnh[3] Th trng TTD ti Vit Nam ang trong giai on chuyn dn t mt th trng c quyn do nh nc kim sot sang th trng cnh tranh vi tc pht trin cng ngh di ng nhanh, chu k cng ngh rt ngn, li th do chi ph u t ngy cng gim mang n nhng c hi cho nh cung cp dch v mi tham gia th trng, ng thi l thch thc i 84

vi nh cung cp dch v hin ti. Cnh tranh gia cc mng TTD hin nay ch yu da vo gim gi cc v khuyn mi lin tc to nn ln sng thu bao di chuyn t mng ny sang mng khc ngy cng ph bin. T l thu bao ngng hot ng so vi tng thu bao trn mng hin chim t l rt ln mng VinaPhone (1/4), MobiFone (1/3), Viettel(1/2) & S-Fone (2/3). Kt cc ca kiu cnh tranh bng gi cc dn ti tnh trng trong tng s 14.3 triu thu bao cng b, thc cht ch c 10.4 triu thu bao thc hot ng, do s thu bao o chim t 25-30% (mt khch hng s dng cng lc t 2-3 mng di ng). Tnh trng ny cho thy khch hng hin nay khng cn trung thnh vi nh cung cp nh trong th trng c quyn trc nm 2003[19]. Trong tng lai, khi s thu bao ngy cng tin n im bo ho v gi cc khng cn l li th i vi ring doanh nghip (DN) no th vic tm kim v to khch hng mi s rt kh khn, i hi nhiu chi ph dnh cho qung co-khuyn mi[12], Xt gc v m, thc trng trn th hin mt th trng pht trin thiu bn vng, tiu cc v lng ph ti nguyn ca ngnh[19] V vy, vic nghin cu m hnh trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD ti Vit Nam c ngha v mt nghin cu khm ph, ng gp mt thang o mi v mt m hnh l thuyt mi. V mt thc tin, vic gi chn khch hng, lm cho khch hng tr nn trung thnh hn mang tnh cp thit, c bit i vi hai nh cung cp dch v truyn thng hin nay l MobiFone v VinaPhone, khi m th trng TTD ti Vit Nam ang trong giai on pht trin mnh, v t l thm nhp hin mi ch t 14 my/100 dn, cn thp hn nhiu so vi cc nc trong khu vc v th gii (70-80 my/100 dn). Kt qu nghin cu s cung cp thng tin cho cc nh qun l hoch nh chin lc s dng hiu qu ngun ti nguyn vin thng, ng thi gip cc nh cung cp dch v TTD hoch nh v thc hin hiu qu hn cc hot
ng tip th, CSKH. II. CC M HNH NGHIN CU S TRUNG THNH CA KHCH HNG TTD

Nhiu nghin cu trc y cp mi quan h nhn qu gia cht lng dch v, s tha mn v s trung thnh trong m hnh truyn thng c tng qut ho nh Hnh 1:

Hnh 1. M hnh tch hp s trung thnh ca khch hng [9]

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S tha mn l s p ng v s nh gi ca khch hng v trng thi mn nguyn (Oliver, 1997)[12]. S tha mn theo Parasuraman (1994) l kt qu tng hp ca Cht lng dch v, Cht lng sn phm v Gi hoc theo Mittal et al (1998) l Cht lng dch v ct li, Dch v c nhn v Gi [22]. Trong lnh vc dch v TTD tho mn cng c o lng thng qua 05 thnh phn cht lng dch v ca Parasuraman[5][7][10][17][20], theo M-K. Kim et al, l: Cht lng cuc gi, Dch v gia tng, Cu trc gi cc, Dch v khch hng v S thun tin [12] . M hnh o lng khi nim s trung thnh tin trin qua ba giai on, u tin n ch o hnh vi mua lp li (Jacoby & Chestnut, 1978) c nh gi l qu gin lc do b qua cc yu t tnh hung (Omally, 1998; Dick & Basu, 1994), hoc khng th gii thch s trung thnh t nguyn hay trung thnh p buc (Hirschman, 1970; Johnson, 1982; Levinger,1979; Ping, 1993) nn yu t thi c a vo gii thch cho s trung thnh (Linderstat, 1998)[9]. Cui cng yu t nhn thc c a vo v khch hng phi tri qua giai on trung thnh nhn thc trn c s kin thc hay nim tin c v thng hiu (Glember & Brown, 1996). Nh vy, s trung thnh i hi cng lc nim tin (nhn thc), cm tnh (thi ) v hnh ng mua lp li (hnh vi)[9]. y l phng php tip cn kiu tch hp. S tha mn cao s gim bt li ch cm nhn ca cc dch v thay th v dn n s trung thnh cao hn (Anderson & Sullivan, 1993), cht lng nhn thc v s tha mn nh hng n s trung thnh (Johny, 2001), s tha mn dn n hnh vi mua li v dn n s trung thnh. Kt qu cc nghin cu thc nghim 100 cng ty thuc 13 ngnh dch v (c ngnh vin thng) c th tng qut ho nh hnh 2, ngha l cht lng nhn thc c th nh hng trc tip ln s trung thnh hoc cng c th nh hng gin tip ln s trung thnh thng qua s tha mn.

Hnh 2: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh ca khch hng [9]

Hn ch ca m hnh ny l qu gin lc khng th hin y cc yu t tc ng n s trung thnh. Phng php tip cn khi nim s trung thnh kiu tch hp c s dng trong nhiu nghin cu ti M, Canada, chu u [14], n [1] trong lnh vc dch v TTD

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th hin r tnh a hng ca s trung thnh nhng v c bn vn l m hnh truyn thng nu trn (Hnh 1).
1. M hnh tip cn theo kiuRo cn chuyn i

Do cu trc th trng v bn cht cnh tranh bin i trong nhng nm gn y, nhiu nghin cu cho thy cc m hnh truyn thng v s trung thnh km ph hp gii thch thc tin v cnh tranh trong cc ngnh dch v ni chung, v ngnh dch v TTD ni ring. Cc nh nghin cu cng pht hin cc khi nim mi c tc ng iu chnh i vi cc m hnh truyn thng. C th, cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng mt s nc chu gn y thng tip cn theo khi nim Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp, cp tnh hung khch hng khng tha mn dch v hin ti, mun chuyn sang dch v khc s gp phi gnh nng nh kh khn v ti chnh, tm l, x hi, ri ro,(Hnh 3).

Hnh 3: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD

Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp trong lnh vc dch v TTD thng cp l 1) Chi ph chuyn i (tn tht do chuyn i, chi ph thch nghi mi v chi ph gia nhp mi), 2) S hp dn ca mng khc (v danh ting, hnh nh, cht lng, gi cc,..) v 3) Quan h khch hng (thm hi, chm sc, tin cy, mt thit, trao i thng tin,gia khch hng vi nhn vin nh cung cp dch v)[10][12][13][22]. Ro cn chuyn i cng cao cng c tc dng gi chn khch hng. Ngi ta thng chia ro cn chuyn i ra lm hai loi: ro cn tiu cc (loi th nht), ro cn tch cc (loi th 2 &3); hoc phn bit bng: ro cn ni sinh (loi th 1&3); ro cn ngoi sinh (loi th 2)
2. M hnh tip cn kiu tch hp

Phn tch su m hnh kho st ch s hi lng ca khch hng mt s ngnh dch v ti th trng M, chu u cng nh m hnh nghin cu s tha mn ca khch hng dch v di ng ti Canada, da theo m hnh Fornell at al (1996)[14] th quan h gia s tho mn v s trung thnh c s dng nh mt khi nim ng nht (Hnh 4), trong s trung thnh tim n gm cc thnh phn: Kh nng mua li (Nhn thc), Mc chp nhn gi (Thi ) v S than phin (Hnh vi). 87

Hnh 4: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh khch hng dch v TTD

So vi m hnh tip cn kiu ro cn chuyn i ca M-K.Kim et al (2004)[12], thnh phn kh nng mua li gi thit khng b nh hng bi ro cn chuyn i, ngha l khch hng t do la chn khi c nhu cu, khng b rng buc vi nh cung cp (thu bao tr tin trc). Ngc li mc chp nhn gi ca khch hng c o lng trong iu kin thc c hin din ca Ro cn chuyn i[14] (thu bao tr tin sau b rng buc bi hp ng vi nh cung cp). Kh nng mua li hm s a thch ca khch hng c tnh bn vng i vi nh cung cp (Soderlund,1998), y l thnh phn truyn thng trong m hnh c in, v mc chp nhn gi hm khch hng trung thnh sn sng tr gi cao hn, hoc khng chuyn sang nh cung cp khc c gi thp hn trnh ri ro cm nhn do xy ra s thay i no . Khch hng cng c quan h lu di v cng trung thnh th mc chp nhn gi cng cao, t so snh gi vi nh cung cp khc (Ruyter et al, 1999)[14] .
3. nh gi cc m hnh

Khi nghin cu s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD, cc nh nghin cu thng tip cn theo hai trng phi: Cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng chu u v Bc M (Hoa K, Canada) tip cn kiu tch hp theo Thi , Nhn thc v Hnh vi th hin qua Mc chp nhn gi, Kh nng mua li v S than phin gii thch cho s trung thnh ca khch hng[14]. Cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng chu th tip cn theo cc yu t lin quan n kh khn m khch hng gp phi nh: Chi ph vt cht, chi ph tinh thn, ri ro khi chuyn i nh cung cp, to nn khi nim gi l Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp dch v[10][12][13][22]. Hn na cc nghin cu ny cn chng minh c rng Ro cn chuyn i ng vai tr bin iu chnh mi quan h gia s tha mn v s trung thnh. Ni cch khc, vi mt mc tho mn nht nh, mc trung thnh c th thay i tu thuc bin thay i ca Ro cn chuyn i [12]

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Tm li, s trung thnh trong cc m hnh chu Au v Bc M l mt khi nim hai th nguyn trong yu t Mc chp nhn gi c ngun gc t ri ro nhn thc tng ng vi ro cn chuyn i trong cc m hnh nghin cu th trng chu . Tuy nhin, m hnh chu Au v Bc M nhn mnh yu t gi nh mt thnh phn chnh ca ro cn chuyn i trong khi cc m hnh chu coi ro cn chuyn i l s nh i gia gi tr nhn thc v chi ph b ra khi khch hng c nh chuyn sang nh cung cp khc (Ratchford, 1982).
4. xut m hnh cho nghin cu th trng TTD ti Vit Nam

Trong bi cnh th trng TTD Vit nam ang cnh tranh ngy cng gay gt vi s tham gia ca 06 nh cung cp dch v, s lng khch hng chuyn i qua li gia cc mng ngy cng gia tng th vn nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng vi ro cn chuyn mng thc s mang tnh thc t v cp thit hin nay. M hnh c xut s dng thang o 05 thnh phn cht lng dch v trong lnh vc TTD [1,5,6,7,9,10,15,16,17,20,21,22], kt hp cc m hnh nghin cu gn y c xt thm yu t Ro cn chuyn mng, c nhiu t chc v c nhn trn th gii [2,4,8,11,12,13,18] tin hnh, la chn cc nhn t c xem l ph hp vi th trng TTD ti Vit Nam hnh thnh m hnh l thuyt v cc gi thuyt nh Hnh 5 Cn c vo cc d liu th cp ca cc mng Vinaphone, MobiFone, Viettel Mobile nh: bo co cht lng dch v, thng k cc khiu ni, phn nh ca khch hng qua tng i v ti cc giao dch Ti cc lp o to nghip v ca Vinaphone t thng 12/2005 n thng 02/2006, kt hp thm d hn 800 giao dch vin ca 22 Bu in tnh thnh khu vc pha nam, thng xuyn tip xc vi khch hng bng 02 cu hi m:

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Hnh 5: M hnh l thuyt nh gi cht lng dch v TTD da trn nhng yu t no? Nhng yu t no khin khch hng chn mng mi, dng thm mng, ngng s dng, tip tc trung thnh vi mng hin ti?

Sau khi la chn, cn nhc sp xp, c kt qu nh bng 1.

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Bng 1: Cc nhn t v thuc tnh o lng ca m hnh

5. Kt lun

T cc phn tch v nh gi cc m hnh nghin cu s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD trn th gii, m hnh l thuyt cho nghin cu thc nghim ti th trng TTD ti 91

Vit Nam c xut nh hnh 5. Trong m hnh ny s trung thnh ca khch hng s dng dch v thng tin di ng c quyt nh bi 02 nhm yu t: l nhm yu t S tha mn nhm yu t cht lng dch v ca cc nh cung cp v nhm yu t Ro cn chuyn mng ca chnh loi dch v ny. Trong nhm yu t S tha mn (cht lng dch v) c 5 yu t: cht lng cuc gi, cu trc gi, dch v gia tng, tnh thun tin v dch v khch hng. Trong nhm Ro cn chuyn mng cng gm 5 yu t: cc tn tht, chi ph thch nghi mi, chi ph gia nhp mi, s hp dn ca cc mng khc (i th cnh tranh) v mi quan h khch hng M hnh trong hnh 5 l mt m hnh a nhn t, vic tm hiu tng tc gia cc nhn t ny vi s trung thnh ca khch hng s gip cho cc c quan qun l nh nc trong hoch nh chnh sch pht trin ngnh TTD nh: s lng cc nh cung cp dch v, chnh sch pht trin th trng n nh bn vng, u t hiu qu v tit kim ti nguyn ca ngnh,.. Ring vi gc cc nh cung cp dch v thng tin di ng Vit Nam th kt qu ng dng m nghin cu ny gip a ra cc gii php nhm nng cao cht lng dch v gi chn khch hng qua vic nng cao lng trung thnh ca khch hng, bnh n th trng, gia tng s thu bao v gia tng li nhun.
TI LIU THAM KHO [1] Apoorva Palkar (2004), Determinants of Customer Satisfaction for Cellular Service Providers, Vol. 28, No,1, Jan-March 2004. [2] Arthur Lin (2004), Antecedent and Consequences of Customer Switching Cost for the Mobile Phone Market, Progress report. [3] Nguyn Sn Hi, Tp ch Bu chnh vin thng v Cng ngh thng tin. MPT (10/2006) [4] Claes-Robert Julander (Jan,2003), Effect of Switching Barrier on Satisfaction, Repurchase Intentions and Attitudinal Loyalty, SSE/EFI Working paper Series in Business Administration. No. 2003:1. [5] Eli M.Noam, The Quality of regulation in Regulating Quality: A Proposal for an Intergrated Incentive Approach to Telephone Service Performance, in Price Caps and Incentive Regulation in Telecommunications, ed. Micheal Einhorn (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1991) 168-189. [6] Garvin, Competing on the Eight Dimension of Quality [7]J.D.Power and Associates, A Marketing Information Firm, www.Jdpower.com. [8] Klemperer, Paul(1987), Markets with Consumer Switching Cost, the Quarterly Jounal of Economics, 102:375-394. [9] Lu ting Pong, Johnny(2001), An Intergrated Model of Service Loyalty, Academy of Business & Administrative Sciences 2001 International Conferences, Brussels, Belgium 23-25 July, 2001. [10] Masud Parvez(ID#0120016), (2005), A relational Study on Service Quality, Switching Cost, Trust, Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty in the context of Grameenphone, Independent University, Bangladesh. [11] Mengze Shi(2005), Managing Consumer Switching Cost through Loyalty Incentives, Progress Report, Feb 14,2005. [12] M-K. Kim et al., (2004), The effects of customer satisfaction and switching barrier on customer loyalty in Korean mobile telecommunication services, Telecommunications Policy 28, (145-159) [13] Moon-Koo Kim & Jong-Hyun Park (2003), The effect of switching barrier on customer retention in Korean Mobile Telecommunication services, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Korea. [14] Ofir Turel & Alexander Serenko (2004), User Satisfaction with Mobile Services in Canada, Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Mobile Business, [15] Parasuraman, A. V. A. Zeithaml, & L.L.Berry (1985), A conceptual Model of Service Quality and its Implications for Future Research, Jounal of Marketing.

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[16] Parasuraman, A. V. A. Zeithaml, & L.L.Berry (1988), SERQUAL: A multiple-Item scale for measuring consumer perceptions of service quality, Jounal of Retailing. [17] Richters & Dvorak,A Framwork Of Defining the Quality of Communications Services [18] Ruyter. K.D.,M.Wetzels&Bloemer (1998), On the relationship between perceived service quality, service loyalty and switching cost, International of Service Industry Managerment, 19(5), pp.436-453. [19] Trung tm thng tin, B BCVT (2005-2006), Tng hp bo ch tun, MPT, [20] Trung tm nghin cu tip th Trng i hc Marketing (2003), Bo co kt qu nghin cu d n kho st th trng dch v in thoi di ng ti TP.HCM, Hp ng dch v s 116/-MARC ngy 13/08/2003. [21] Wen-Hai Chih & Tzy-Wen Tang & I-Ju Chen (2002), The Service Quality Perceptional Analysis of Mobile Phone User in Mainland China, National Dong Hwa University. [22] Shih-Ping JENG (2003), Customer Loyalty in Competitive Market : Alternative Attractiveness, Switching Cost, and Satisfaction Effects, Fu Jen Catholic University
Tp ch BCVT-CNTT s thng 2/2007

Ngun: http://www.mba-15.com/view_news.php?id=491

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Bi vit 2. o lng mc trung thnh ca khch hng i vi dch v thng tin di

ng-Nghin cu ti th trng TP.HCM

Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng Khoa Qun l Cng nghip-HBK TP.HCM I. GII THIU M HNH NGHIN CU

Bi vit Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc thng tin di ng ti Vit Nam, Tp ch BCVT&CNTT K 1 thng 2/2007 phn tch cc m hnh nghin cu s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc dch v thng tin di ng (TTD) ca mt s nc trn th gii v xut m hnh l thuyt p dng cho nghin cu ti th trng TTD Vit Nam [10]. Bi vit ny s trnh by kt qu nghin cu thc nghim ti th trng TP. H Ch Minh t 01/2006 n 05/2006 nhm kim nghim m hnh l thuyt xut [10] v cung cp mt thang o s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc dch v TTD ti Vit Nam. V mt thc tin kt qu nghin cu cung cp thng tin gip cho vic hoch nh chnh sch s dng hiu qu ngun ti nguyn vin thng ng thi gip cc nh cung cp dch v TTD xy dng chin lc tip th phng th hiu qu theo nh hng khch hng. M hnh nghin cu s dng thang o 05 thnh phn cht lng dch v trong lnh vc TTD, kt hp cc m hnh nghin cu gn y c xt thm yu t Ro cn chuyn mng, c nhiu t chc v c nhn trn th gii tin hnh, la chn cc nhn t ph hp vi th trng TTD ti Vit Nam [10]. Trong m hnh ny, cht lng dch v gm 05 thnh phn: Cht lng cuc gi, Cu trc gi cc, Dch v gia tng, S thun tin v Dch v khch hng. Ro cn chuyn mng gm 03 thnh phn: Chi ph chuyn mng (tn tht pht sinh khi chuyn mng, chi ph thch nghi mng mi, chi ph gia nhp mng mi); S hp dn ca mng khc, v Quan h khch hng.
II. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU Xc nh cc bin o lng: nghin cu nh tnh nhm xc nh cc nhn t v cc thuc tnh o lng. Hn 800 giao dch vin cc ca hng, i l Bu in tnh thnh pha Nam c ly kin thm d trong khong thi gian t 01/2006 n 02/2006, s b hnh thnh thang o ban u [10]. Tip theo tin hnh phng vn 150 khch hng kim nh tin cy thang o. Sau khi hiu chnh mt s bin, thang o cui cng c s dng cho phng vn chnh thc. Mu v thng tin mu: kho st nh lng thc hin ti khu vc TP.HCM t thng 03/2006 n 05/2006, i tng chn mu l khch hng cc mng di ng MobiFone, VinaPhone, S-Fone v Viettel, s dng dch v 6 thng tr ln, tin hnh phng vn khch hng ti cc khu vc Qun, Huyn theo t l dn c hp l. Phng php ly mu phi xc sut c phn t[14] theo gii tnh (nam-58%, n-42%), 5 nhm tui (18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64), th phn thu bao cc mng (Mobifone-52.8%, VinaPhone-21%, S-Fone 5.9%, Viettel-20.3%), trong mi mng li chia theo t l thu bao tr trc v thu bao tr sau (MobiFone-70/30, VinaPhone-80/20, S-Fone-60/40, Viettel-65/35). M hnh o lng gm 52 bin quan st, theo quy tc ti thiu l: 5 x 3 = 15 mu cho mt bin o lng (Bentle & Chou, 1987), do s mu tnh ton ban u l: 52 x 15 = 780, sau khi pht hnh 1.170 mu, kt qu thu c 917 mu hp l. Thu thp v phn tch d liu: M hnh l thuyt nghin cu c xy dng da trn nn tng l thuyt m hnh mng SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) [1,3,6] v k thut x l

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III. KT QU NGHIN CU 3.1. Kt qu thng k m t D liu phn tch dng c mu N= 917, vi thang Likert 5 khong cch cho kt qu cc gi tr Skewness v Kurtosis cc bin o lng phn b trong khong [-1, +1] nn phn b gn chun v phng php c lng ML (Maximum Likelihood) c chp nhn s dng [8]. Vi thang o Likert 5 khong (t 1: rt khng ng n 5: rt ng ), gi tr trung bnh (mean) ca cc bin o cht lng dch v c s khc bit kh cao (mean=2.82 ->3.64), c bit khch hng cha hi lng v gi cc (mean=2.84); Tng i h tr (mean=2.82); Mng hay b nghn, rt mch (mean=3.1), Gii quyt khiu ni ko di v cha tha ng (mean=3.11). Ngoi ra, cc bin o Vng ph sng v Tng i h tr c lch chun kh cao (1.056 v 1.149) v kt qu phn tch ANOVA xc nhn c s khc bit trong nhn thc gia khch hng ca cc mng di ng khc nhau i vi 02 bin o ny. Cc bin o Ro cn cng c nh gi sai bit nhiu (mean=2.75->3.76), trong bin o Bt tin khi i s in thoi nh gi kh cao (mean=3.76) chng t khch hng rt ngi chuyn i v s b gin on thng tin lin lc. Ngc li, bin Quan h khch hng (mean=3.01) v S quan tm ca nh cung cp (mean=2.75) c gi thp cho thy nh cung cp cha ch trng cng tc chm sc khch hng. i vi S hp dn ca mng khc v cht lng (mean=3.55), Gi cc r (mean=3.64) v Danh ting/Hnh nh (mean=3.41) c khch hng nh gi cao. Khch hng nh gi S tha mn hi thp (mean=3.1) trong khi S trung thnh li c nh gi kh cao (mean=3.64) 3.2 nh gi s b thang o: T hp thang o Cht lng-Ro cn chuyn mng bao gm thang o Cht lng dch v vi 05 thnh phn v 31 bin o lng ; thang o Ro cn chuyn mng vi 03 thnh phn v 21 bin o lng. Kt qu phn tch tin cy thang o loi 02 bin (v c tng quan bin tng nh hn 0.3) cn li 50 bin a vo phn tch EFA, cc thnh phn thang o sau khi loi bin u c cc h s Cronbach Alpha > 0.6 t yu cu. 3.3. Phn tch nhn t khm ph (EFA) S dng phn tch nhn t bng SPSS 13.0 cho kt qu EFA nh sau: thnh phn Dch v gia tng v thnh phn Quan h khch hng c h s ti (Factor Loading) nh hn 0.5 nn b loi. Thang o Cht lng dch v cn li 04 thnh phn l: Cht lng cuc gi, Cu trc gi cc, Dch v khch hng v S thun tin. Thang o Ro cn chuyn mng cn li 02 thnh phn l: Chi ph thch nghi, S hp dn ca mng khc. 3.4. Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): Kt qu s dng phn mm AMOS 6.0 tin hnh phn tch CFA cc thang o khi nim, kim nghim ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt v kim nh cc gi thuyt nh sau: Kim nghim m hnh t hp thang o Cht lng Ro cn a) Kt qu phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): Cc h s ti t cc bin quan st ln cc

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 b) Cc ch s ph hp m hnh sau khi iu chnh t yu cu (Bng 1). Nh vy 04 thnh phn ca Cht lng dch v v 02 thnh phn ca Ro cn chuyn mng t c tnh n nguyn[8]. Bng 1: So snh ph hp ca m hnh trc v sau khi hiu chnh Cc ch s nh gi M hnh ban u M hnh hiu chnh 2 (df) 747.871 (155) 423.269 (152) 2/ df 4.82 2.78 .000 .000 p .921 .956 GFI .893 .939 AGFI .879 .943 TLI .901 .955 CFI .065 .044 RMSEA 2 Ghi ch: cc ch s c bn nh gi m hnh gm: Fmin = / df: Chi-square/bc t do; GFI: Goodness-of-Fit Index; AGFI: Adjusted GFI; TLI: Tucker-Lewis Coefficient; CFI: Comparative Fit Index; RMSEA: Root Mean Square Error of Approximation. M hnh c cc ch s 2/ df < 3 ; GFI, AGFI, TLI, CFI >.9 v RMSEA <.06 c xem l m hnh ph hp vi d liu th trng)[1,3,5]. c) H s tng quan ca cc khi nim thnh phn u < 1 v c ngha (p<.05) , do cc khi nim ny t gi tr phn bit[8].
Kim nghim m hnh thang o Tho mn v Trung thnh Thang o mc tho mn ca khch hng l thang o n hng, c o lng bng 02 bin quan st. M hnh thang o ny c kim nh bng CFA v kt qu cho thy m hnh ny ph hp vi b d liu kho st th trng (2 = 0, 2/ df = 0 p = .000; Cc ch s AGFI = 1, GFI = 1, TLI= 1 , CFI = 1 v RMSEA = .000). Thang o ny c h s tin cy tng hp l .794 v phng sai trch c l 82.9%. Cc h s ti ca thang o ny u kh cao (nh nht l Q9b = .80). V vy, thang o mc tho mn ca khch hng t c gi tr hi t v tnh n nguyn[8]. Tng t thang o mc trung thnh ca khch hng c o bng 03 bin quan st. Kt qu kim nh m hnh ban u cho thy m hnh ph hp tt vi d liu th trng ( 2 = 2.688, 2/df = 1.34, p = .261; Cc ch s GFI = .998 , TLI = .998, CFI = .99 v RMSEA = .019). Thang o c h s tin cy tng hp l .755 v phng sai trch c l 67.5%. Cc trng s thang o u chp nhn c (nh nht l Q11b = .61) . Vy thang o mc trung thnh ca khch hng cng t c gi tr hi t v tnh n nguyn [8]. Kim nghim ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt bng SEM: Kt qu kim nh CFA bng phn mm AMOS thc hin theo nguyn tc iu chnh cc quan h c MI > 4 (MI-Indice Modification, l h s iu chnh ng vi s thay i ca 2 trn mt bc t do) nhng s iu chnh ny phi m bo ph hp v mt c s l thuyt v bao hm ngha v mt thc tin. Sau khi thc hin iu chnh, kt qu CFA cho thy cc ch s nh gi ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt u c ci thin ng k nh hnh 1 ( 2/df = 2.37; GFI=.94; TLI=.94; CFI=.95; RMSEA = .039). V vy m hnh ny ph hp vi d liu th trng. Hn na cc h s hi quy gia khi nim S tha mn v S trung thnh, cc h s hi quy gia S tha mn , S trung thnh vi cc thnh phn ca chng l Cht lng dch v v Ro cn chuyn i u nh hn 1 v khc 0 mt cch c ngha v mt thng k

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(Hnh 1). V vy, c th kt lun l cc thnh phn o lng S tha mn, Ro cn v S trung thnh vi cc thnh phn ca chng t c gi tr phn bit[8].

Hnh 1: Kt qu kim nh m hnh l thuyt

Kim nghim c lng m hnh bng phn tch BOOSTRAP nh gi tnh bn vng ca m hnh l thuyt, phng php phn tch Boostrap c s dng. y l phng php ly mu lp li c thay th t mu ban u (N=917), trong mu ban u ng vai tr m ng (Schumacker& Lomax, 1996). S ln ly mu lp li trong nghin cu c chn l B = 1.500 ln, kt qu c lng vi B ln t N mu c tnh trung bnh v gi tr ny c xu hng gn vi c lng ca tng th. Kt qu chnh ca c lng (bias) v sai lch chun ca n c gi tr nh v n nh cho php kt lun rng cc c lng ML p dng trong m hnh l tin cy v c dng cho cc kim nh gi thuyt tip theo. 3.5 Kim nh m hnh hi quy cu trc Kim nh gi thuyt tng quan

Kt qu kim nh m hnh l thuyt (Hnh 2) cho thy gia cc khi nim (thnh phn) c quan h (tng quan) vi nhau mt cch ngha nhng vn t gi tr phn bit, ngha l 97

c Kim nh gi thuyt quan h nhn qu

Hnh 2: Kt qu kim nh m hnh cu trc

Nhn xt: T kt qu kim nh gi thuyt ca m hnh cu trc (hnh 2) cho thy - Cc thnh phn Cht lng dch v c tc ng tch cc (trc tip) ln S tha mn v tch cc (gin tip) ln S trung thnh l: Cht lng cuc gi (.40), Gi cc(.23) v Dch v khch hng (.11), - S thun tin v Chi ph thch nghi tc ng tch cc (trc tip) ln S trung thnh v Ro cn. - S hp dn ca mng khc c tc ng tiu cc (trc tip) lm gim ng thi c S tha mn, S trung thnh v Ro cn, - S trung thnh c gii thch bi s tho mn (.66) v Ro cn (.17) tng ng vi 79% v 21%. 3.6. nh gi s khc bit c ngha gia cc nhm khch hng (Bng 2) Bng 2: Kt qu phn tch ANOVA gia cc nhm khch hng

YU T CHT LNG CUC GI GI CC

NH GI CAO/R - Vinaphone, MobiFone - Nhn vin, hc sinh-sinh vin - Nam, Ln tui, Hc vn thp,V tr x hi thp. - Viettel Mobile - Thu bao tr trc DCH V KHCH - Ln tui HNG THUN TIN - Thu bao tr trc CHI PH - VinaPhone THCH NGHI - Thu bao tr sau

NH GI THP/T

- Viettel Mobile - Nh qun l - N, Tr tui, Hc vn cao, V tr x hi cao. - MobiFone, VinaPhone - Thu bao tr sau - Tr tui - Thu bao tr sau - MobiFone - Thu bao tr trc

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THA MN TRUNG THNH

- MobiFone - VinaPhone - Thi gian s dng dch v di

- VinaPhone - MobiFone - Thi gian s dng dch v ngn.

IV. KT LUN 4.1. Kt qu nghin cu ng gp ca nghin cu ny l xy dng m hnh l thuyt, kim nh cc gi thuyt v cung cp mt thang o mi trong lnh vc TTD ti Vit Nam, lng ho cng tc ng ca cc yu t thnh phn, trong ng ch l: thnh phn Cht lng dch v vn ng vai tr quan trng (0.4) so vi Gi cc (0.23) v Dch v khch hng (0.11); S thun tin tc ng trc tip ln S trung thnh m khng thng qua s tho mn, S hp dn ca mng khc c tc ng tiu cc n c s tho mn v s trung thnh ca khch hng mng hin ti; tc ng ca nhn t S tho mn chim 79% so vi Ro cn chuyn mng chim 21% ln S trung thnh. Kt qu nghin cu cng ph hp vi mt s nghin cu ti cc th trng i Loan[13] v Hn Quc[7]. Kt qu phn tch ANOVA c tng kt ti Bng 2 cn cung cp mt s thng tin hu ch cho cc nh qun l trong xy dng chin lc theo phn khc th trng. 4.2. Hm i nh qun tr dch v Kt qu nghin cu cho thy: tng cng s trung thnh ca khch hng th tng s tha mn ca h i vi cht lng dch v l cha m cn phi tng ro cn chuyn mng gi khch hng bng cch tng ro cn ni sinh (chi ph thch nghi) v gim nh hng ca thnh phn ngoi sinh (s hp dn ca mng khc). V nguyn tc, doanh nghip (DN) cn phi hp thc hin cc gii php theo nh m hnh cu trc (Hnh 2). y chnh l cc c tnh th hai ca m hnh Kano[2] m cc nh qun tr cn quan tm. Mt kt qu ng c lu na l: khch hng VinaPhone mc d c mc tha mn thp nhng li c mc trung thnh kh cao. iu ny c gii thch bng: a) Chi ph thch nghi c khch hng nh gi cao t kt qu thng k m t v t phn tch ANOVA; b) S thun tin do ang c tha hng knh bn hng v chm sc khch hng ti cc Bu in tnh, thnh (BTT). Chi ph thch nghi v S thun tin c nh gi cao chnh l nguyn nhn lm tng S trung thnh. Mc d yu t Chi ph thch nghi hin ang c nh gi cao (khch hng ngi chuyn sang mng khc) nhng yu t ny s b suy gim rt nhiu trong tng lai khi B BCVT cho php cc mng lin kt c s d liu chung v khch hng chuyn mng c gi nguyn s in thoi. Cn S thun tin cng s b hn ch khi VinaPhone tin hnh c phn ho khng cn da vo knh phn phi ca cc BTT nh hin nay. Do vy, Vinaphone cn ch ng xy dng ro cn mang tnh tnh cc v bn vng hn. Ngc li, S hp dn ca mng khc c tc ng tiu cc lm gim c S tho mn v S trung thnh. Cho nn, lm gim hiu ng S hp dn ca mng khc, cc DN cn n lc thc hin gii php to li th cnh tranh nh sau:

4.3. Hm i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch

T kt qu nghin cu, c mt s xut i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch: a) Kin ngh chnh ph rt ngn thi gian khu hao thit b ph hp vi chu k cng ngh 99

v b) C mc pht hnh chnh i vi DN ch tp trung pht trin thu bao bng gim gi/khuyn mi m khng m bo cht lng dch v v cng khai kt qu thanh tra cht lng dch v ca cc nh cung cp trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng. c) Gim st quy trnh qun l cht lng dch v theo Quyt nh 33/2006/Q-BBCVT ca B BCVT i vi ch tiu cht lng ng k ca cc nh cung cp dch v TTD bo v li ch cho ngi tiu dng, m bo th trng pht trin bn vng, d) Khuyn khch cc nh cung cp dch v s dng chung h tng mng v c s d liu khch hng nh kinh nghim ti mt s nc trn th gii v khu vc (Hn Quc, i Loan) nhm tit kim ti nguyn vin thng, gim t l khch hng chuyn mng, gim lng ph u t v tng sc mnh cho ton ngnh trc khi m ca th trng hi nhp. TI LIU THAM KHO [1]. Bollen, K.A (1989), Structural Equation with Latent Variables, New York: John Wiley & Sons. [2]. Bi Nguyn Hng, Nguyn Thy Qunh Loan (2004), Qun l cht lng, NXB i hc Quc gia TP.HCM, [3]. Hair et al (2000), Applied Multivariate Statistics, Week 11, chap 11. [4]. Hong Trng (2005), Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, NXB thng k. [5]. James L. Arbuckle(2005), Amos 6.0 Users Guide, Copyright 19952005 by Amos Development Corporation, http://amosdevelopment.com [6]. J.J. Hox (2003), An Introduction to Structural Equation Modeling, Family Science Review, 11, 354-373. [7]. M-K. Kim et al., (2004), The effects of customer satisfaction and switching barrier on customer loyalty in Korean mobile telecommunication services, Telecommunications Policy 28, (145-159) [8]. Nguyn nh Th v cc thnh vin (2003), o lng cht lng dch v vui chi gii tr ngoi tri TP.HCM, ti nghin cu khoa hc, m s CS2003-19 [9]. Ofir Turel & Alexander Serenko (2004), User Satisfaction with Mobile Services in Canada, Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Mobile Business, [10]. Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng, Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc dch v TTD ti Vit Nam, Tp ch BCVT&CNTT, 02/2007 [11]. Rich Zimmerman & Olga Dekhtyar (2004), AMOS-Analysis of Moment Structures, University of Kentucky. [12]. Scott MacLean, Kevin Gray (1998), Structural Equation Modeling in Marketing Research, Jounal of the Australian Market Research Society. [13]. Shih-Ping JENG (2003), Customer Loyalty in Competitive Market: Alternative Attractiveness, Switching Cost, and Satisfaction Effects, Fu Jen Catholic University [14]. Trn Xun Kim, Nguyn Vn Thi (2004), Nghin cu tip th, NXB Thng k. Tp ch BCVT&CNTT thng 4/2007
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