TH TRNG CHNG KHON NHNG IU CN BIT

Chng ta s xem xt tnh cht c th ca TTCK Vit Nam v nh hng ca n i vi vic s dng PTKT: 1. Gi trong nhiu trng hp cha phn nh ht cc hnh ng ca th trng Gi chng khon ti mi thi im phn nh mt tp hp tm l ca rt nhiu cc nh u t trn th trng. Cc nh u t ny bao gm c nhng nh d on th trng gii nht cho n cng chng theo sau. Tm l ca h th hin s k vng hay tht vng v chng khon vi cc xu hng v tin tc trn th trng. Cc nh u t c chung tm l s c cng hnh ng ging nhau. Cc hnh ng bn hay mua ti mt thi im, vi quy m khc nhau ca tt c cc nh u t th hin thnh cung (supply) v cu (demand). Sau khi phn nhm, do tnh cht u tin gi cao i vi cu v u tin gi thp i vi cung, cc nh u t phi cnh tranh vi chnh nhng ngi c cng hnh ng ging mnh c th thc hin thnh cng vic Mua hoc Bn chng khon bn c chng khon, nhng ngi c hnh ng cung trn th trng phi h gi bn c u tin bn trc. p lc cung cng ln th p lc gim gi cng ln v ngc li. mua c chng khon, nhng ngi c hnh ng cu trn th trng phi tng gi mua c u tin mua trc. p lc cu cng ln th p lc tng gi cng ln v ngc li.

Gi giao dch ti mi thi im lun l s cn bng gia cung v cu trn th trng. Ni mt cch khc gi phn nh tt c hnh ng ca th trng. y l nn tng c bn ca l thuyt Dow v cng chnh l nn tng quan trng nht ca phn tch k thut. cc th trng pht trin, vi quy m giao dch khng l, ti mi thi im lun tn ti mt s lng ln cc nh u t vi nhng li ch v s k vng khc nhau v gi chng khon. Bn cnh , gi giao dch khng c bt k rng buc no v bin , n c rng cn thit phn nh y cc trng thi cung-cu trn th trng. Khi nhng iu ti t xy ra i vi mt loi chng khon, p lc cung ln buc n gim mnh, c nhng trng hp gim hn 50% ch trong mt ngy giao dch. S gim gi khng khip ca Bear Stearn, Freddie Mac hay Fannie Mae gn y l nhng v d in hnh. Do gi nh gi phn nh tt c cc hnh ng ca th trng, cc nh phn tch s dng phn tch k thut ch cn tp trung vo gi-khi lng, thng qua nhiu cng c o lng khc nhau, l c th thy c cc trng thi tm l ca th trng. Chng ta u bit cc ch s trong PTKT (MACD, RSI, MFI, OBV, A/D,) c xy dng trn c s cc mi tng quan ca gi hoc khi lng. PTKT nhn nhn cung v cu cn bng ti mc gi giao dch v khi lng giao dch. Ti th trng Vit Nam, trong nhiu trng hp khng phn nh y mi quan h gia cung v cu: Khi cu hoc cung p o, p lc tng gi hoc gim gi l rt ln, bin giao ng hp lm cho cc nh u t khng th tng gi mua hoc gim gi bn nhiu hn cc mc gi trn hoc gi sn. iu ny lm cho sc mnh trong tm l ca cc nh u t b km nn, chng gy nn tnh trng khan him gi to khi mc gi cho mua/cho bn khng p ng c k vng ca nhng nh u t c k vng ngc li, h khng giao dch.

Khi cu p o cung, p lc tng gi ln. Do gii hn gi trn, cc nh u t khng th tng gi mua p ng k vng mong i ca bn bn, xut hin tnh trng d cu v gi khng t c s cn bng gia cung v cu.Th trng cn tri qua nhiu ngy giao dch gi c th tng ln v t mc k vng ca cung.

Khi cung p o cu, p lc gim gi ln. Do gii hn gi sn, cc nh u t khng th gim gi mua p ng k vng mong i ca bn mua, xut hin tnh trng d cung v gi khng t c s cn bng gia cung v cu. Th trng cn tri qua nhiu ngy giao dch gi c th gim xung v t mc k vng ca cu. Trong t tng gi t 11/6/2008 n nay, th trng tri qua c 2 tnh trng: tranh bn v tranh mua. Tranh mua trong khong thi gian t 23/6-4/7 v 8/7-17/7/2008. Tranh bn t 18/7 n 25/7/2008. Nhn xa hn vo qu kh cng s thy nhiu trng hp tng t nh vy.

Vi cc c trng ny ca th trng, trong cc trng hp tranh mua/tranh bn, gi chm tr trong vic phn nh mi quan h cung-cu. Th trng cn tri qua mt vi ngy giao dch gi c th phn nh y cc hnh ng ca th trng. Gi nh tin ca PTKT c l cn phi iu chnh li thch ng vi TTCK Vit Nam: Coi s dch chuyn gi l mt qu trnh v khng nn nhn mnh tnh thi im, c bit l khi th trng tranh mua hoc tranh bn. Khi th trng tranh mua/tranh bn, d cu/d cung vi khi lng ln v p o, mt s nh u t t cc lnh mua/bn nhng khng c nh thc hin cc lnh ny nu n c th trng p ng. y chnh l cu o/cung co. Mc ch ca chng l nhm gy tm l hoi nghi cho cc nh u t khc. Chng rt kh c th tch bit r rng vi cu thc v cung thc (nu s phn bit l cn thit cho vic phn tch). Vn ny c l ch xut hin cc th trng nh Vit Nam. 2. nh hng t s chm tr ca gi Cc ch s k thut vn c xy dng nh l cc cng c h tr cho vic nh gi cc xu hng v mc bin ng gi. TTCK Vit Nam, khi gi chm tr trong vic phn nh cc hnh ng ca th trng, cc ch s k thut cng b nh hng theo. nh hng ny th hin 2 vn sau: 2.1 Vn khi lng giao dch Theo cc ti liu v PTKT ca nc ngoi, KLGD tng s cng c cho xu hng hin ti. Gi tng mnh hoc gim mnh, do cc nh u t hot ng mnh hn (mua hoc bn nhiu hn), ko theo KLGD tng ln.

 Khong thi gian t im s (1) n s (2) hoc t s (3) n s (4), KLGD gim mnh tng ng vi s gim mnh hoc tng mnh ca VN-Index. Ti cc im (A), (B), (C), (D), KLGD u tng t bin. y l thi im gom hang hoc x hng. Nhn chung, khi th trng tranh mua hoc tranh bn qu nng, KLGD u gim mnh.

KLGD c xu hng tng sau ngy 19/5/2008, cng c cho xu hng gim ca DJIA.

 KLGD c xu hng gim sau ngy 17/7/2008 t ra nghi vn cho s tn ti xu hng gim trc ca DJIA. Khi DJIA tng mnh hoc gim mn, KLGD tng. Khi DJIA tng/gim cha mnh, trong mt s trng hp KLGD c th s n nh hoc tng khng r rng. Vit Nam, khi th trng tng mnh hoc gim mnh li thng l thi im tranh mua hoc tranh bn, KLGD c xu hng thu hp. Sau , khi KLGD tng mnh thng l thi im phn phi (x hng hoc gom hng), chng t ra nghi vn cho s tn ti ca xu hng trc (liu c mt s o chiu chng?), cha cho thy ngha ca s cng c xu hng. Hu qu ca tnh trng ny l cc ch s k thut xy dng da trn KLGD nh On Balance Volume, Money Flow Index, A/D line, b nh hng. Chng ta s xem xt cc trng hp in hnh ca: On Balance Volume (OBV) v A/D Line (A/D). OBV l ch s phn nh s tch lu KLGD sau cc phin giao dch. Cng thm KLGD khi tng gi v tr bt KLGD nu gim gi. A/D l ch s phn nh s tch lu KLGD thnh cng c iu chnh theo t l tng gim gi trong phin. C 2 ch s ny u ly sc tng/gim kt hp vi s phn k m/dng xc nh kh nng cng c ca xu hng gi.

Quan st biu bn chng ta nhn thy: Khong thi gian t im s (1) n s (2), VN-Index gim mnh, mi ngy u gim gn nh ht bin cho php, KLGD cng gim. A/D hnh thnh phn k dng (ngc chiu vi VN-Index-mt tn hiu khc vi s cng c cho xu hng gim ca VN-Index). Ngc li, OBV gim v hnh thnh phn k m, hi t vi VN-Index. Tuy nhin mc gim ca OBV l khng mnh, OBV ch gim 2,5 ln. Chng qu t so vi s gia tng trong khong thi gian t im s (2) n im s (3): OBV tng hn 3 ln, mc d VNIndex ti im s (3) ch l 486,53, thp hn im s (1): 35,83 im. Nh vy, KLGD gim lm cho s phn k m ca OBV v phn k dng ca A/D cha phn nh ng sc gim thc t ca gi. Ni cch khc chng cha cng c mnh nh c th i vi xu hng gim ca VN-Index. Ti im s (3), sc tng ca OBV v A/D cng cao gp hn 3 ln so vi bnh qun sc tng ca 3 ngy trc . V mt l thuyt, y l du hiu cng c mnh hn nhng ngy trc i vi xu hng tng ca VN-Index. Th nhng, ngay ngy hm sau, A/D gim v dn hnh thnh phn k m trong nhng ngy tip theo, du hiu cnh bo xu hng tng hin ti sp kt thc. 2.2 S nh hng ca tnh chm tr n cc ch s c xy dng trn c s ca gi Trn thc t, cc ch s PTKT c xy dng da trn mi tng quan thun tu ca gi (khng c s kt hp vi KLGD) l rt nhiu: MACD, Momentum, MA, Stochatic Oscillator, y, chng ti ch a ra 2 v d minh ho cho s chm tr ca gi nh

hng n cc ch s: Aroon v Relative Strength Index:

Aroon v Relative Strength Index (RSI) u l nhng ch s phn nh mi tng quan gia xu th tng v xu th gim: Aroon Up i din cho xu th tng, Aroon Down i din cho xu th gim. Aroon Up cng ln hn Aroon Down bao nhiu th xu th tng gi hin ti ca chng khon cng ln v ngc li. RSI phn nh mi quan h gia sc tng v sc gim ca gi chng khon. Nu RSI>50 th sc tng l ln hn sc gim v ngc li. biu k bn, ti im s (2) ngy 23/7/2008, Aroon v RSI phn nh s cn bng v dn thng th ca sc gim (xu th gim) so vi sc tng (xu th tng). Chng ta u bit rng n ngy ny, VN-Index tri qua ngy th 4 lin tip cc nh u t tranh bn. Nu chng ta s dng mt chu k tnh ton di hn th kt qu thu c thm ch cn chm hn. Ngc li, nu s dng mt chu k ngn hn s lm cho cc tn hiu phn ng hn v cng thiu chc chn hn. Trn y, chng ti mi ch trnh by nh hng t s chm tr ca gi i vi mt s ch s k thut. Trong thc t, chng ta c th ch ra nhiu hn cc ch s b nh hng. Nh vy, c th thy tnh cht ring c ca TTCK Vit Nam: Th trng c bin hp. Chng gy nh hng ln n kh nng phn nh cc hnh ng th trng ca gi chng khon. c bit, trong cc trng hp tranh mua/tranh bn mnh m, gi cn tri qua nhiu phin tng hoc gim mnh gip cho cung v cu cn bng.

Khi gi chm tr, cc ch s PTKT cng b nh hng. Nh u t no s dng nhiu cc ch s ny m cha quan tm ng mc n cc xu hng vn ng, trong nhiu trng hp h s khng thy ht nhng nguy c tim n ca th trng.