Professional Documents
Culture Documents
=
N
j
t ij
P
1
,
= 1 (A2)
Phuong trnh (A2) l diu kin rng buc di voi xc sut chuyn di (nghia l cc xc sut
trong hng i cua ma trn chuyn di cng lai phai bng mt). Ma trn chuyn di l mt ma
trn P c dang (N x N) chua cc xc sut chuyn di:
=
t NN t N t N
t N t t
t N t t
t
p p p
p p p
p p p
P
, , 2 , 1
, 2 , 22 , 21
, 1 , 12 , 11
...
...
...
...
Trong bi vit ny, chng ti d tnh hai loai ma trn chuyn di.
1. Voi cc xc sut chuyn di khng di theo thoi gian.
2. Voi cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thoi gian.
Ma trn chuyn di c cc xc sut khng di. Di voi ma trn chuyn di c cc xc sut
khng di, P
t
= P t. Nu 0 < p
ij
< 1 i, j = 1, 2, , N, ta c th ni rng chui Markov l
ti gian. Mt khc, nu P l mt ma trn tam gic trn, ta ni chui Markov cn c th rt
gon duoc:
T T
T
=
=
3 2
1
2 1
22 21
11
0
...
...
0 ...
0 ... 0
NN N N
p p p
p p
p
P
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 33
Chng ti goi trang thi i l trang thi hp dn khi ta quan st thy p
11
= 1. Khi mt dt nuoc
ban hnh co ch i, xc sut tu bo trang thi d bng khng (khng th dat dn trang thi khc
nu ta dang o trang thi i).
Ma trn chuyn di c xc sut thay di theo thi gian. D noi long gia dinh cho rng ma
trn chuyn di khng di theo thoi gian, ta cho cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo cc
bin s kinh t vi m. Trong truong hop ny, ma trn chuyn di s thay di mi thoi doan
khi cc bin dc lp thay di. Theo Masson v Ruge- Murcia (2005), chng ti su dung dang
hm s sau dy cho cc xc sut chuyn di:
P(s
t
= j | s
t-1
= i) = p
ij,t
(X
t-1
) =
+
N
i j
t ij
t j
X
X
) exp( 1
) exp(
1
'
1
'
1
|
|
(A3)
P(s
t
= i | s
t-1
= i)= p
ii,t
(X
t-1
) =
=
+
N
i j
t ij
X ) exp( 1
1
1
'
|
(A4)
Dang hm s (A3) v (A4) c xem xt dn diu kin l tng cua cc xc sut trong mt hng
bt ky cua ma trn chuyn di phai bng mt (xem phuong trnh (A2)).
Uc luong ma trn chuyn di
Ung voi tnh cht phi tuyn tnh th hin qua dang hm s duoc chon cho cc xc sut
chuyn di, khng c nghim giai tch cho cc uoc luong (estimators) xc sut ti da. Chng
ti su dung mt phuong php bng s d uoc luong xc sut ti da (MLE). Thut ton su
dung trong bi vit ny l thut ton Davidon- Powell- Fletcher (DFP). Chng ti su dung
phuong php ny d uoc luong ma trn chuyn di c cc xc sut c dinh v thay di theo
thoi gian. Uu dim cua thut ton ny l n khng di hoi cc php ton giai tch cua dao
hm bc hai cua hm muc tiu (tru di hm xc suat log).
Xc sut quan st thy mt trnh tu co ch cu th { ;
T
=0 t t
s di voi mt dt nuoc c bng:
P
c
(s
0
s
1
s
T
) = P
c
(s
T
| s
T-1
) P
c
(s
T-1
| s
T-2
) P
c
(s
1
| s
0
) P
c
(s
0
) (A5)
Bt dng thuc sau cng khai thc gia dinh v chui Markov v su dung dinh nghia xc sut
c diu kin. Sau d, hm xc suat cho dt nuoc c c th duoc vit nhu sau:
L
c
(|) = P
c
(s
0
s
1
s
T
) (A6)
Su dung (A3)-(A5), ta c th vit lai phuong trnh (A6) nhu sau:
L
c
(|) = ) ( )) ( (
0
1 1 1
1 , ,
, ,
s P X p
c
t
N
i
N
j
I
t c t ij
c t ij
III
T
= = =
(A7)
trong d
I
ij,t,c
=
0
1 nu s
t
= j v s
t-1
= i di voi nuoc c
trong truong hop khc
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 34
Ta c th thu duoc hm xc sut log cho mt s luong C dt nuoc bng cch ly log hai v
cua phuong trnh (A7) v cng lai cho tt ca cc nuoc trong mu, c = {1, 2, , C) :
l (|) =
=
T
= = = =
+
C
c t
N
i
N
j
C
c
c t c t ij c t ij
s P X p I
1 1 1 1 1
0 1 , , , ,
)) ( ln( )) ( ln( (A8)
Ta thu duoc uoc luong xc sut ti da cua |
ij
thng qua chuong trnh ti da ho sau dy:
|
MLE
su dung ma trn thng tin. Trong truong hop xc sut khng
di, chng ti uoc luong sai s chun cua cc xc sut ny bng phuong php delta. Luu
rng cc gi tri uoc luong xc sut khng di thu duoc thng qua su dung mt vector khng
di lm bin dc lp (X
t-1
).
Du bo
Cc xc sut khng di. Khi d uoc luong duoc ma trn chuyn di, ta c th thuc hin vic
du bo M buoc. Khi M = 1 (du bo mt buoc), v ung voi phn phi cho truoc cua cc co
ch (r
t
) trong thoi gian t, du bo mt buoc s l:
' P r r R R
t t t
f
t
= =
+1
(A10)
trong d, r
t
l vector c N hng v 1 x N thu nguyn, chua phn phi cua cc co ch vo thoi
gian t. Khi qut ho phuong trnh (A10), ta c th thu duoc du bo M buoc bng cch p
dung phuong trnh sau:
'
M
t t t
f
M t
P r r R R = =
+
(A11)
f
M t
R
+
l du bo M buoc cua phn phi cc co ch ty gi hi doi hay cc bin php kim sot
vn.
Nu ma trn chuyn di P chi c mt gi tri eigen bng 1 v N 1 gi tri eigen khc nm
trong vng don vi, ta c th tnh phn phi bt bin (di han hay trang thi dung) cua qu
trnh. V du, nu cc diu kin ny thoa mn di voi ma trn chuyn di cua co ch ty gi hi
doi (cc bin php kim sot vn), ta c th tnh phn phi di han cua cc co ch ty gi hi
doi (cc bin php kim sot vn) v phn phi ny s khng phu thuc vo phn phi co
ch ban du.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 35
Dinh nghia 3: Nu P l ma tran chuyn doi cho qu trnh chuoi Markov v nu r l vector
phn phoi voi dc tnh l rP = r, th ta goi r l phn phoi di han (phn phoi bat bin hay
phn phoi o trang thi dung).
Ung voi phn phi bt ky cua cc co ch R
t
= r v min l cc diu kin gi tri eigen d cp
trn dy duoc thoa, phn phi o trang thi dung hay phn phi bt bin c th duoc tnh nhu
sau:
lim'
M M
t t t
f
M t
P P r r R R = = =
+
(A12)
M
Gioi han m ta trong phuong trnh (A12) cho thy rng phn phi bt bin s bng mt hng
bt ky cua ma trn P
M
.
Cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thi gian. D thuc hin du bo M buoc cho phn
phi co ch ty gi hay cc bin php kim sot vn su dung ma trn chuyn di thay di theo
thoi gian, truoc tin ta phai thuc hin du bo M buoc cho cc bin dc lp (X
t-1
) hay n dinh
mt tnh hung mong mun, hay mt l trnh cho tung bin dc lp, ri sau d su dung cc
uoc luong xc sut ti da |
MLE
v phuong trnh (A3) v (A4) d uoc luong cc xc sut
chuyn di. Khi ta d c mt du bo cho ma trn chuyn di cua tung thoi doan, ta thu duoc
du bo M buoc cho phn phi bng cch sau:
'
f
M t
f
t
f
t t t t
f
M t
P P P r r R R
+ + + +
= =
2 1
(A13)
trong d
f
s t
P
+
l du bo cua ma trn chuyn di cho thoi doan t + s.
Uc luong xc sut ti da
Trong bi vit, chng ti trnh by cc du bo phn phi ty gi hi doi cho 20 nm sau
(2025) su dung cc xc sut chuyn di khng di v thay di theo thoi gian. Trong truong
hop cc xc sut thay di theo thoi gian (phuong trnh (A3) v (A4)), chng ti gia dinh rng
cc xc sut chuyn di phu thuc vo cc bin s kinh t vi m. Mt cch cu th, chng ti
gia dinh dang hm s sau dy:
'
1 j
B
X
t-1
= |
0
+ |
1
Inf
t-1
+ |
2
PIncome
t-1
+ |
3
1
1
t
t
GDP
DC
(A14)
trong d Inf l ti l lam pht hng nm, PIncome l thu nhp trn du nguoi v DC/GDP l ty
s tn dung ni dia trn tng san luong ni dia. S liu lam pht duoc thu thp tu Thong k ti
chnh quoc t, thu nhp trn du nguoi v ty s tn dung ni dia trn tng san luong ni dia
duoc ly tu Cc chi bo pht trin th gioi cua Ngn hng Th gioi.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 36
PHU LUC 3: DU BO PHN PHI CO CHE TY GI HI DOI NM 2025: CC
TNH HUNG KHC NHAU
Trong phu luc ny, chng ti trnh by cc du bo phn phi co ch ty gi hi doi cho nm
2025 su dung cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thoi gian, theo phuong php cua Masson
v Ruge- Murcia (2005). D thuc hin vic ny, buoc thu nht l uoc luong cc dng phuong
sai cho cc xc sut chuyn di Markov. Chng ti lp m hnh cc xc sut ny nhu cc hm
s theo ba bin s: ti l lam pht x (biu thi bng x/(1 + x)), GDP trn du nguoi nhu mt s
do tng qut cua trnh d pht trin kinh t, v tn dung ni dia duoc biu thi bng ty trong
trong GDP, nhu mt s do pht trin ti chnh.
Bang A3.1. Cc h s uc luong: cc xc sut thay di theo thi gian, phn loai Bubula
v Otker- Robe
Hng s Lam pht Thu nhp (trn du nguoi) Tn dung ni dia/GDP
Tt ca cc nuc
p12 -6,74* 5,76 -1,17 7,69
p13 -4,53* -16,69 0,30 -11,12
p21 -6,17* 2,83** 0,08* 0,96
p23 -2,62* 1,63* -0,02 0,34
p31 -7,45* 5,69* -0,09 2,24
p32 -1,93* 0,80 -0,08* 0,57
Cc nuc tin tin
p12 - - - -
p13 - - - -
p21 3,60 -161,87* -0,24* 2,28
p23 -7,31* 23,35** 0,11 1,49
p31 - - - -
p32 3,30 8,92 0,04 -10,18*
Cc thi trung mi ni
p12 - - - -
p13 3,57 -491,08 -1,18 -0,06
p21 - - - -
p23 -2,03* -1,12 0,01 0,33
p31 -5,02* 5,33* -0,05 0,00
p32 -1,79* 1,35 -0,05 0,27
Cc nuc dang pht trin
p12 -9,57* 18,81 -1,96 16,46
p13 - - - -
p21 -5,98* 4,16* -0,03 -0,70
p23 -2,31* 2,03* -0,10 -0,94
p31 - - - -
p32 -2,52* 1,01 0,10 2,32*
Ch thch: Gi tri uoc luong cua cc tc gia. * v ** tiu biu cho nhung h s khc khng v mt thng k o
cc muc nghia ln luot l 5 phn trm v 10 phn trm.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 37
Bang A3.2. Cc h s uc luong: cc xc sut thay di theo thi gian, phn loai Reihart
v Rogoff
Hng s Lam pht Thu nhp (trn du nguoi) Tn dung ni dia/GDP
Tt ca cc nuc
p12 -4,52* 4,04* -0,23 0,06
p13 -8,58* 3,76 0,05 2,28
p14 -4,70* 5,59* 0,22 -8,76
p21 -4,10* -6,54 0,04 -0,54
p23 -3,20* -3,19 0,01 -0,14
p24 -3,97* 4,36* -0,03 -0,07
p31 -5,99* -40,49 -0,17* 4,11*
p32 -3,92* 3,97 -0,01 -0,06
p34 -3,10* 8,17* -0,28 0,28
p41 -2,98* 0,27 0,10 1,88
p42 -1,24* -0,65 0,19** 0,35
p43 -0,18 -5,09* -0,01 1,74
Cc nuc tin tin
p12 - - - -
p13 -6,52 71,03 -0,04 -0,54
p14 - - - -
p21 4,56 -76,51** -0,27* -1,01
p23 -7,39* 21,50 0,16** -0,68
p24 -3,90 7,84 -0,07 0,86
p31 -1,33 -96,74 -0,11 0,57
p32 -4,30 -19,33 0,06 -1,41
p34 - - - -
p41 - - - -
p42 - - - -
p43 - - - -
Cc thi trung mi ni
p12 150,84 -16,81 0,05 -1572,60
p13 - - - -
p14 -3,59** 3,32 0,24 -4,95
p21 - - - -
p23 -3,69* -3,96 0,03 0,95
p24 -3,45* 1,92 0,01 -0,25
p31 -1472 -818,48 0,00 955,44
p32 -1,44 -37,81 0,00 -0,40
p34 -3,34* 9,76 -0,27 0,20
p41 -3,54* -0,21 0,46 1,04
p42 -1,62 -0,85 0,18 0,13
p43 -1,41 -5,54** 0,41 2,49
Cc nuc dang pht trin
p12 -7,04* 3,53 -5,26 24,70*
p13 - - - -
p14 9,59 21,62 -56,33 -173,69
p21 -4,53* 0,88 -0,46 1,49
p23 -2,43* -4,26 -0,15 -1,71
p24 -3,97* 6,22* -0,26 -0,47
p31 - - - -
p32 -4,83* 11,81* 0,34 -4,97
p34 -3,30* 8,07* -0,27 1,72
p41 -3,20* 0,06 0,01 4,07*
p42 -1,22* -0,14 0,09 1,15
p43 -0,07 -2,91 -0,93 1,73
Ch thch: Gi tri uoc luong cua cc tc gia. Du * v ** tiu biu cho nhung h s khc khng v mt thng k
o cc muc nghia ln luot l 5 phn trm v 10 phn trm.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 38
Cc gi tri uoc luong h s duoc trnh by trong bang A3.1 cho cc xc sut chuyn di dua
vo phn loai Bubula- Otker- Robe, v trong bang A3.2 cho phn loai Reinhart Rogoff. Cc
gi tri uoc luong ni chung c ve hop l, cho d chi mt s t c nghia thng k o muc tin
cy tiu chun.
23
Chng ti khng mun ch trong qu nhiu vo d lon cua cc gi tri uoc
luong h s, v th chng ti trnh by cc gi tri du bo ny trong phu luc chu khng phai
trong bi vit. Tuy nhin, chng ti nghi cung nn luu rng phuong php c th duoc su
dung d du bo trong cc tnh hung khc nhau.
Nhu vy, chng ti thy rng lam pht cao hon khuyn khch su chuyn di tu co ch ty gi
c dinh sang cc co ch linh hoat hon, cho d cung c h s duong cho su chuyn di tu tha
ni sang c dinh cung, nhu th mt s nuoc lam pht cao, dc bit l cc thi truong moi ni,
phai vin dn cc co ch c dinh cung nhu mt cng cu chng lam pht. Thu nhp trn du
nguoi cao hon gn lin voi su chuyn di sang cc co ch c dinh cung tai cc nuoc tin tin
dy l vic chon lua chuyn di sang lin minh tin t tai chu u. Trong bang A3.2, chng
ti thu duoc cc kt qua tuong tu di voi ca lam pht v thu nhp trn du nguoi.
By gio chng ti c th su dung cc gi tri uoc luong dim ny d du bo phn phi co ch
ty gi hi doi vo nm 2025 phu thuc vo cc gia dinh khc nhau v phn phi cc bin
dc lp. Tnh hung trung bnh gia dinh rng ba bin dc lp c gi tri bnh qun mu tu
by gio dn nm 2025. Luu rng cc du bo ny hoi khc voi cc du bo trong bi vit,
trong d, cc xc sut chuyn di khng duoc lp m hnh nhu cc hm s theo cc bin dc
lp (o d, cc xc sut d c th duoc cho l hi qui theo gi tri c dinh m thi). Tnh hung
tt gia dinh rng ti l lam pht l mt d lch chun duoi trung bnh mu, thu nhp trn du
nguoi l 0,5 d lch chun bn trn trung bnh mu, v tn dung ni dia/GDP l mt d lch
chun bn trn trung bnh mu.
24
Tuong tu, tnh hung xu gia dinh rng ti l lam pht l
mt d lch chun bn trn trung bnh mu, thu nhp trn du nguoi l 0,5 d lch chun bn
duoi trung bnh mu, v tn dung ni dia/GDP l mt d lch chun bn duoi trung bnh mu.
Bang A3.3 v A3.4 trnh by cc du bo ln luot su dung phn loai Bubula- Otker- Robe v
phn loai Reinhart Rogoff. Cc kt qua chung khng khc nhau lm trong ba tnh hung ny.
Tuy nhin, c su khc bit dng luu trong ba nhm nuoc. Trong bang A3.3, tnh hung tt
dn dn su chuyn di hon chinh hon o cc nuoc tin tin, tu bo cc co ch trung gian v
huong toi lin minh tin t.
25
Trong cc nuoc thi truong moi ni, tnh hung tt dn dn gn
nhu ton b su bin mt cua cc co ch c dinh d chuyn sang co ch trung gian v co ch
tha ni voi ti l gn nhu bng nhau. Nguoc lai, trong tnh hung xu, s c nhiu thi truong
moi ni gn b voi co ch c dinh cung hon, trong khi c t nuoc chuyn sang co ch tha ni
hon.
26
Trong bang A3.4, tnh hung tt mt ln nua dn dn su chuyn di hon chinh hon
huong toi co ch c dinh cung (lin minh tin t o chu u). Tuy nhin, o dy, trong tnh
hung xu, phuong n chon lua cua cc nuoc l co ch tha ni nhiu hon so voi cc co ch
trung gian. Tai cc thi truong moi ni, mt ln nua ta du bo c t nuoc theo co ch tha ni
trong tnh hung xu, nhung o dy phuong n chon lua cua ho l cc co ch trung gian nhiu
23
Dy cung l cng mt kt qua m Masson v Ruge- Murcia thu duoc thng qua su dung cc bin dc lp v
s liu khc.
24
Ung voi tnh trang phn tn cao cua thu nhp trn du nguoi giua cc nuoc, tru di mt d lch chun cho bin
ny s dn dn thu nhp trn du nguoi c gi tri m di voi mt s nuoc. V l do d, chng ti cng hay tru
0,5 d lch chun .
25
Trong tnh hung xu, diu th vi l, lin minh tin t khng tng truong, v mt ty trong dng k cc nuoc c
co ch tha ni quay tro v voi cc co ch trung gian.
26
Kt qua cua cc nuoc dang pht trin kh hi ho voi cc kt qua truoc dy hon. Xu huong cc nuoc ny
chuyn tu co ch tha ni sang cc co ch trung gian trong tnh hung tt phan nh h s tuong di lon v pht
trin ti chnh di voi xc sut chuyn di tu co ch tha ni sang cc co ch trung gian.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 39
hon so voi co ch c dinh cung.
27
Tai cc nuoc dang pht trin, xem ra c ve hop l, tnh
hung xu dn dn tu bo cc co ch c dinh v huong toi co ch roi tu do.
Bang A3.3. Du bo nm 2025: Ty trong trong phn phi co ch ty gi hi doi su dung
phn loai Bubula Otker Robe v cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thi gian
Tnh hung Co ch c dinh cung Co ch trung gian Co ch tha ni
Tt ca cc nuc
Xu 30,22 40,66 29,12
Trung bnh 31,83 38,95 29,22
Tt 33,32 37,26 29,42
Cc nuc tin tin
Xu 54,39 40,02 5,59
Trung bnh 55,07 2,78 42,16
Tt 57,74 0,01 42,26
Cc thi trung mi ni
Xu 26,93 51,43 21,65
Trung bnh 19,77 46,31 33,93
Tt 0,18 43,72 56,11
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Xu 26,03 32,80 41,18
Trung bnh 26,58 51,31 22,12
Tt 25,31 65,11 9,58
Ch thch: Trong tnh hung tt, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu tru di mt d lch chun , thu nhp
trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu cng 0,5 d lch chun, v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh mu cng
mt d lch chun. Trong tnh hung xu, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu cng mt d lch chun ,
thu nhp trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu tru 0,5 d lch chun , v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh
mu tru mt d lch chun. Trong tnh hung trung bnh, moi bin s du bng trung bnh mu.
Ngoi ra, chng ti cung uoc luong cc h s cua cc dng phuong sai cho phn loai nhi
phn cua cc bin php han ch ti khoan vn v mt ln nua, su dung chng d du bo phn
phi co ch vo nm 2025. Bang A3.5 trnh by cc thng s uoc luong cho cc nhm nuoc
khc nhau. Chi c mt t thng s c nghia thng k. Tuy nhin, cc tnh hung khc nhau
trong bang A3.6 ni chung c ve hop l. Di voi mu tt ca cc nuoc, cc nn kinh t tin
tin v cc thi truong moi ni, nhiu nuoc chuyn sang mo cua ti khoan vn hon trong tnh
hung tt so voi tnh hung trung bnh (v tuong tu, t nuoc chuyn sang mo cua ti khoan
vn hon trong tnh hung xu). Kt qua xem ra km hop l nht d l cc du bo ny cho
thy c t nn kinh t thi truong moi ni hon so voi cc nuoc dang pht trin chuyn sang mo
cua ti khoan vn vo nm 2025, nhung chng ti ngn ngai khng mun nhn manh nhiu
vo su khc bit ny do c t cc dng phuong sai c nghia. Quan trong hon ca, kt lun
chnh trong bi vit cho rng vn cn mt ti l dng k cc thi truong moi ni v cc nuoc
dang pht trin c cc bin php kim sot vn vo nm 2025, v duy tr khng thay di.
Bang A3.4. Du bo nm 2025: Ty trong trong phn phi co ch ty gi hi doi su dung
phn loai tu nhin cua Reinhart v Rogoff v cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thi
gian
27
Mt kt qua dng ngac nhin khc l ta du bo t co ch tha ni hon v nhiu co ch trung gian hon trong tnh
hung tt.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 40
Tnh hung Co ch c dinh
cung
Co ch trung
gian
Co ch tha ni Co ch tha ni tu
do
Tt ca cc nuc
Xu 18,37 53,19 13,51 14,93
Trung bnh 37,71 29,09 31,31 1,89
Tt 79,75 10,45 9,66 0,14
Cc nuc tin tin
Xu 23,89 12,92 63,02 0,17
Trung bnh 47,45 12,02 40,38 0,15
Tt 64,82 11,21 23,84 0,13
Cc thi trung mi ni
Xu 17,66 52,69 7,02 22,64
Trung bnh 19,98 16,23 59,47 4,32
Tt 16,70 66,19 15,54 1,58
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Xu 49,59 33,14 6,47 10,79
Trung bnh 47,47 33,61 14,64 4,28
Tt 43,66 25,32 29,48 1,54
Ch thch: Trong tnh hung tt, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu tru di mt d lch chun, thu nhp
trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu cng 0,5 d lch chun, v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh mu cng
mt d lch chun. Trong tnh hung xu, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu cng mt d lch chun ,
thu nhp trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu tru 0,5 d lch chun , v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh
mu tru mt d lch chun. Trong tnh hung trung bnh, moi bin s du bng trung bnh mu.
Bang A3.5. Cc h s uc luong cua cc bin giai thch, chi s Chinn v Ito
Hng s Lam pht Thu nhp (trn
du nguoi)
Tn dung ni
dia/GDP
Tt ca cc nuc
p12 -3,223* 0,001 0,049* -0,267
p21 -2,239* 0,000 -0,029 -1,070
Cc nuc tin tin
p12 0,322 -2,072 -0,124** 2,759**
p21 -3,986** 0,301 -0,041 0,642
Cc thi trung mi ni
p12 -2,682* -0,005 0,096** -1,410
p21 -0,932 -0,197 0,133 -4,643*
Cc nuc dang pht trin
p12 -3,117* 0,003 -0,004 -1,466
p21 -2,511* -0,022 -0,022 -0,705
Ch thch: Gi tri uoc luong cua cc tc gia. Du * v ** tiu biu cho cc h s khc khng v mt thng k o
muc nghia ln luot l 5 v 10 phn trm.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 41
Bang A3.6. Du bo nm 2025: Ty trong trong phn phi cc bin php kim sot vn
su dung chi s Chinn v Ito v cc xc sut chuyn di thay di theo thi gian
Dng cua Mo cua
Tt ca cc nuc
Xu 68,30 31,70
Trung bnh 54,65 45,35
Tt 41,68 58,32
Cc nuc tin tin
Xu 26,91 73,09
Trung bnh 5,81 94,19
Tt 1,90 98,10
Cc thi trung mi ni
Xu 72,92 27,08
Trung bnh 54,44 45,56
Tt 38,85 61,15
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Xu 61,94 38,06
Trung bnh 67,74 32,26
Tt 72,46 27,54
Ch thch: Trong tnh hung tt, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu tru mt d lch chun, thu nhp
trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu cng 0,5 d lch chun, v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh mu cng
mt d lch chun Trong tnh hung xu, lam pht bng ti l lam pht trung bnh mu cng mt d lch chun ,
thu nhp trn du nguoi bng trung bnh mu tru 0,5 d lch chun, v tn dung ni dia/GDP bng trung bnh
mu tru mt d lch chun Trong tnh hung trung bnh, moi bin s du bng trung bnh mu.
PHU LUC 4: CC CCH PHN LOAI CC BIEN PHP KIEM SOT VN KHC
NHAU
Trong phu luc ny, chng ti tm hiu suc manh cua cc pht hin trong bi vit v xu huong
mo cua ti chnh thng qua phn tch mt vi s do khc nhau v cc co ch ti khoan vn.
Truoc tin, vic phn tch d nhay gip trin khai ca bn cu phn cua chi s Chinn Ito; bn
cu phn ny xc dinh tnh trang c hay khng c cc bin php han ch cc giao dich ti
khoan vn, c hay khng c cc bin php han ch ti khoan vng lai, c hay khng c co
ch nhiu ty gi hi doi, v c hay khng c qui dinh bn lai ngoai t xut khu. Chng ti
su dung cc s liu ny d xp cc nuoc vo thnh ba loai: dng cua hon ton (nu ca bn s
do du c), mo cua hon ton (nu ca bn s do du khng c), hoc nm o khoang giua. V
co ban, vic phn loai ny xc nhn cc phc thao khi qut cua phn tch dua vo s do nhi
phn nhu d thao lun trong bi vit.
Vic phn loai chi tit hon ny gip ta thy r sc thi cua cc co ch hon dng thoi v co
ban vn khng lm thay di buc tranh chung. Trong bang A4.1, ta thy rng qua tht cc
nuoc tin tin bt du tu mt tnh trang tuong di mo cua ti khoan vn; vo khoang nm
1990, khng nuoc no trong cc nuoc ny dng cua hon ton di voi cc dng vn quc t,
trong khi khoang 20 phn trm cc thi truong moi ni v cc nuoc dang pht trin vn cn o
trang thi ny. Dn nm 2003, khng mt nn kinh t thi truong moi ni no cn hon ton
dng cua di nhin, diu gip xc dinh ho l cc thi truong moi ni, nghia l, cc nh du tu
quc t c th di hoi san quyn cua ho t nht l dn mt chung muc no d trong khi chi
c 1 trong 12 nuoc dang pht trin vn cn o trang thi ny. Du bo trong bang A4.2 cho
thy rng dn nm 2025, ty trong cc thi truong moi ni v cc nuoc dang pht trin mo cua
ti khoan vn hon ton chi tng rt t.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 42
Bang A4.1. Su thinh hnh cua kim sot vn: Phn loai Chinn Ito theo ba loai (ti l
phn trm cc thnh vin trong mi loai)
Ty trong
1990 1997 2003
Tt ca cc nuc
Dng cua 16,45 7,74 5,66
Trung gian 65,79 68,39 63,52
Mo cua 17,76 23,87 30,82
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 152 155 159
Cc nuc tin tin
Dng cua 0,00 0,00 0,00
Trung gian 52,38 22,73 9,09
Mo cua 47,62 77,27 90,91
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 21 22 22
Cc thi trung mi ni
Dng cua 23,33 7,14 0,00
Trung gian 60,00 75,00 74,19
Mo cua 16,67 17,86 25,81
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 30 28 31
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Dng cua 17,82 9,52 8,49
Trung gian 70,30 76,19 71,70
Mo cua 11,88 14,29 19,81
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 101 105 106
Ch thch: Mi cu phn bng 0 khi c cc bin php han ch v bng 1 khi khng c. Trn phuong din cc
bin php kim sot vn, mt nuoc duoc xem l dng cua, trung gian, hay mo cua khi tng cua bn cu phn
ln luot bng 0 (dng cua), nm trong khoang 1-3 (trung gian), hoc bng 4 (mo cua).
Ngun: Uoc luong cua cc tc gia su dung bn cu phn nhi phn cua chi s Chinn v Ito.
Cui cng, chng ti cung xem xt mt s do khc v tnh trang mo cua thi truong vn do
Nancy Brune trin khai. S liu cua Brune c uu dim l ko di cho dn nm 2004, dng
thoi cung rt chi tit: Brune thu thp s do chi tit cua cc bin php han ch cc dng vn
vo v ra: (1) Cc bin php kim sot dng vo cua cc giao dich bt kha kin I (invisible
transactions) (bao gm tin thu tu cc giao dich bt kha kin, qui dinh v vic chuyn loi
nhun v nuoc, v qui dinh bn ngoai t); (2) Cc bin php kim sot dng vo cua cc giao
dich bt kha kin II (bao gm tin thu tu xut khu v qui dinh v vic chuyn loi nhun v
nuoc, v qui dinh bn ngoai t lin quan dn xut khu); (3) Cc bin php kim sot dng ra
cc giao dich bt kha kin; (4) Cc bin php kim sot dng vo lin quan dn vn v chung
khon thi truong tin t; (5) Cc bin php kim sot dng ra lin quan dn vn v chung
khon thi truong tin t; (6) Cc bin php kim sot dng vo lin quan dn hoat dng tn
dung; (7) Cc bin php kim sot dng ra lin quan dn hoat dng tn dung; (8) Cc bin
php kim sot du tu truc tip vo nuoc nh; (9) Cc bin php kim sot du tu truc tip ra
nuoc ngoi; (10) Cc bin php kim sot giao dich bt dng san; (11) Cc qui dinh cu th
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 43
cho cc ngn hng thuong mai; v (12) Co cu ty gi hi doi.
28
Dim khc thuong cua chui
ny l xem ra n cho thy cc bin php kim sot vn vn cn kh ph bin tai cc nuoc tin
tin. Chng ti d chia cc nuoc thnh hai loai mt cch hoi tuy tin cn cu vo vic liu cc
bin php han ch duoc duy tr di voi t hon nm trong s cc loai giao dich ny.
Bang A4.2. Cc xc sut chuyn di v du bo nm 2025: Kim sot vn (phn loai
theo ba loai)
Co ch vo thoi doan t Uoc luong xc sut xay ra co ch vo thoi doan t + 1
Dng cua Trung gian Mo cua Tng s quan st
Tt ca cc nuc
Dng cua 0,7538 0,2410 0,0051 195
Trung gian 0,0233 0,9444 0,0323 1332
Mo cua 0,0000 0,0497 0,9503 483
Tng 2010
Du bo nm 2025
Ty trong trong phn phi cc
bin php kim sot vn
5,53 57,97 36,49
Cc nuc tin tin
Dng cua 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0
Trung gian 0,0000 0,8000 0,2000 65
Mo cua 0,0000 0,0183 0,9817 219
Tng 284
Du bo nm 2005
Ty trong trong phn phi cc
bin php kim sot vn
0,00 8,39 91,61
Cc nn kinh t thi trung mi ni
Dng cua 0,7250 0,2750 0,0000 40
Trung gian 0,0154 0,9462 0,0385 260
Mo cua 0,0000 0,0921 0,9079 76
Tng 376
Du bo nm 2005
Ty trong trong phn phi cc
bin php kim sot vn
3,81 68,04 28,31
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Dng cua 0,7613 0,2323 0,0065 155
Trung gian 0,0268 0,9533 0,0199 1007
Mo cua 0,0000 0,0691 0,9309 188
Tng 1350
Du bo nm 2005 7,99 71,05 20,98
Ty trong trong phn phi cc
bin php kim sot vn
Ch thch: Mi cu phn bng 0 khi c cc bin php han ch v bng 1 khi khng c. Trn phuong din cc
bin php kim sot vn, mt nuoc duoc xem l dng cua, trung gian, hay mo cua khi tng cua bn cu phn
ln luot bng 0 (dng cua), nm trong khoang 1-3 (trung gian), hoc bng 4 (mo cua).
Ngun: Uoc luong cua cc tc gia su dung bn cu phn nhi phn cua chi s Chinn v Ito.
28
D m ho bin nhi phn, chng ti khng tnh dn co cu ty gi hi doi. Do d, pham vi chi s chua chuyn
di nm trong khoang 0-11.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 44
Bang A4.3. Su tin ho cua kim sot vn: Chi s Brune (ti l phn trm cc thnh vin
trong mi loai)
Ty trong
1990 1997 2004
Tt ca cc nuc
Dng cua 82,58 69,19 65,41
Mo cua 17,42 30,81 34,59
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 155 185 185
Cc nuc tin tin
Dng cua 43,48 16,67 12,50
Mo cua 56,52 83,33 87,50
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 23 24 24
Cc thi trung mi ni
Dng cua 89,66 78,13 68,75
Mo cua 10,34 21,88 31,25
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 29 32 32
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Dng cua 89,32 76,74 74,42
Mo cua 10,68 23,26 25,58
Tng 100,00 100,00 100,00
S thnh vin 103 129 129
Ch thch: Chi s Brune duoc thu gon trong mt bin nhi phn m ta su mo cua cua ti khoan vn. Bin nhi
phn ny bng 1 (mo cua) khi chi s mo cua ti chnh (khng k co cu ty gi hi doi) lon hon hay bng 7.
Ngun: Uoc luong cua cc tc gia.
Cc kt qua su dung phn loai nhi phn ny duoc trnh by trong bang A4.3 v A4.4. Kt qua
cho thy cng mt xu huong nhu khi su dung bin Chinn- Ito. Ca ba nhm nuoc cc nuoc
tin tin, cc nuoc thi truong moi ni, v cc nuoc dang pht trin - du th hin su giam st
tc dng cua cc bin php kim sot vn.
29
Ma trn chuyn di trong bang A4.4 rt tuong tu
voi ma trn duoc xy dung tu phin ban nhi phn cua chi s Chinn- Ito. Cc du bo vn cho
thy da s cc thi truong moi ni v cc nuoc dang pht trin vn duy tr cc bin php kim
sot vn mi cho dn nm 2025.
29
Phn lon su bin thin ta quan st duoc l do su khc bit v pham vi bao trm cua mu nghin cuu cc nuoc.
V du, trong mu cua Brune c bao gm San Marino, mt nuoc c cc bin php kim sot vn dng k trong s
cc nuoc cng nghip, trong khi mu cua Chinn v Ito khng xem xt dt nuoc ny.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 45
Bang A4.4. Cc xc sut chuyn di v du bo nm 2025: Chi s kim sot vn cua
Brune
Co ch vo thoi doan t Uoc luong xc sut xay ra co ch
vo thoi doan t + 1
Dng Mo Tng s quan st
Tt ca cc nuc
Dng 0,9739 0,0261 1837
Mo 0,0252 0,9748 675
Tng 2512
Du bo nm 2025
Ty trong trong phn phi cc bin php kim sot vn 54,51 45,49
Cc nuc tin tin
Dng 0,8529 0,1471 68
Mo 0,0112 0,9888 267
Tng 335
Du bo nm 2025
Ty trong trong phn phi cc bin php kim sot vn 7,22 92,78
Cc nuc thi trung mi ni
Dng 0,9723 0,0277 361
Mo 0,0361 0,9639 83
Tng 444
Du bo nm 2025
Ty trong trong phn phi cc bin php kim sot vn 59,63 40,37
Cc nuc dang pht trin
Dng 0,9801 0,0199 1408
Mo 0,0338 0,9662 325
Tng 1733
Du bo nm 2025
Ty trong trong phn phi cc bin php kim sot vn 66,54 33,64
Ch thch: Mi cu phn du bng 0 khi c cc bin php kim sot vn v bng 1 nu khng c cc bin php
kim sot vn.
Ngun: Cc gi tri uoc luong cua tc gia su dung mt trong cc cu phn nhi phn cua chi s Chin v Ito (cc
bin php kim sot vn).
Ti liu tham khao
Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta and A. Banerjee (2001). A corporate balance sheet approach to
currency crises, CEPR Discussion Paper 3092 (December).
Alesina, A. and A. Wagner (2003). Choosing (and reneging on) exchange rate regimes, NBER
Working Paper No. 9809 ( June).
Allen, M., C. Rosenberg, C. Keller, N. Roubini and B. Setser (2002). The balance sheet
approach to financial crises, IMF Working Paper No. 02/210 (December).
Bayoumi, T. and B. Eichengreen (1994). One money or many? On the prospects for monetary
unification in various parts of the world, Princeton Studies in International Finance No.
76, International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University.
Bayoumi, T., B. Eichengreen and P. Mauro (2000). On regional monetary arrangements for
ASEAN, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 14, 12148.
Bergsten, C.F. (2004). Chinese currency controversies, unpublished manuscript, Institute for
International Economics ( January).
Bordo, M., B. Eichengreen, D. Klingebiel and S.M. Martinez-Peria (2001). Is the crisis
problem growing more severe? Economic Policy, 32, 5182.
Bubula, A. and I. Otker-Robe (2002). The evolution of exchange rate regimes since 1990:
Evidence from de facto policies, IMF Working Paper No. 02/155 (September).
Caballero, R. and A. Krishnamurthy (2004). Exchange rate volatility and the credit channel
in emerging markets: a vertical perspective, NBER Working Paper No. 10517 (May).
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 46
Calvo, G. and C. Reinhart (2002). Fear of floating, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 379408.
Cavallo, D. and J. Cottani (1997). Argentinas convertibility plan and the IMF, American
Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 87, 1722.
Cheung, Y.-W., M. Chinn and E. Fujii (2005). Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but
probably isnt), unpublished manuscript, UC Santa Cruz, University of Wisconsin at
Madison, and University of Tsukuba (September).
Chinn, M. and H. Ito (2002). Capital account liberalization, institutions and financial development:
cross country evidence, NBER Working Paper No. 8967 ( June).
Chinn, M. and J. Frankel (2005). Will the euro eventually surpass the dollar as the leading
international currency?, paper presented to the NBER Conference on G-7 Current
Account Imbalances, Newport, Rhode Island, 12 June.
Clarida, R., J. Gali and M. Gertler (1998). Monetary policy rules in practice: some international
evidence, European Economic Review, 103368.
Crockett, A. (1994). Monetary implications of increased capital flows, in Changing Capital
Markets: Implications for Monetary Policy, Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City.
Duttagupta, R., G. Fernandez and C. Karasadag (2004). From fixed to float: operational
aspects of moving toward exchange rate flexibility, IMF Working Paper No. 04/126 (July).
Disyatat, P. (2005). Inflation targeting, asset prices and financial imbalances: conceptualizing
the debate, BIS Working Paper No. 168 ( January).
Dooley, M., D. Folkerts-Landau and P. Garber (2003). An essay on the revived Bretton Woods
system, NBER Working Paper No. 9971 (September).
Ebrahim-Zadeh, C. (2005). Sharper advice needed from IMF on capital account issues, IMF
Survey, 34 (6 June), 15557.
Eichengreen, B. (1994). International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century, Washington, DC:
The Brookings Institution.
(1996). Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, Princeton: Princeton
University Press.
(2004a). Hanging together: on monetary and financial cooperation in Asia, in M. Shahid
Yusuf, A. Altaf and K. Nabeshima (eds.), Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives, New
York: Oxford University Press.
(2004b). Global imbalances and the lessons of Bretton Woods, NBER Working Paper No.
10497 (May).
(2005). Is a change in the renminbi exchange rate in Chinas interest? Asian Economic Papers,
4, 4178.
Eichengreen, B. and R. Hausmann (eds.) (2005). Other Peoples Money: Debt Denomination and
Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Eichengreen, B. and P. Luengnaruemitchai (2004). Why doesnt Asia have bigger bond markets?
NBER Working Paper No. 10576 ( June).
Eichengreen, B. and D. Mathieson (2001). The currency composition of foreign exchange
reserves: retrospect and prospect, in C. Wyplosz (ed.), The Impact of EMU on Europe and the
Developing Countries, New York: Oxford University Press, 26993.
Eichengreen, B. and M. Mussa (1998). Capital account liberalization: theoretical and practical
aspects, IMF Occasional Paper No. 172 ( July).
Eichengreen, B. and A. Taylor (2004). The monetary consequences of a Free Trade Area of
the Americas, in A. Estevadeordal, D. Rodrik, A. Taylor and A. Velasco (eds.), Integrating
the Americas: FTAA and Beyond, Cambridge, MA: David Rockefeller Center for Latin American
Studies, 189226.
Eichengreen, B. and C. Wyplosz (1993). The unstable EMS, Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity, 1, 51144.
Erceg, C., L. Guerrieri and C. Gust (2005). Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit,
International Finance Discussion Paper No. 2005-825, Washington, DC: Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System ( January).
Fischer, S. (2001). Exchange rate regimes: is the bipolar view correct? Journal of Economic
Perspectives, 15, 324.
Fleming, J.M. (1962). Domestic financial policies under fixed and floating exchange rates,
IMF Staff Papers, 9, 36079.
Frankel, J.A. (2001). No single currency regime is right for all countries or at all times, Essays
in International Finance No. 215, International Finance Section, Department of Economics,
Princeton University ( July).
Funabashi, Y. (1988). Managing the Dollar: From the Plaza to the Louvre, Washington, DC: Institute
for International Economics.
Genberg, H. and A. Swoboda (1987). Fixed rates, flexible rates, or the middle of the road:
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 47
A reexamination of the arguments in view of recent experience, in R.Z. Aliber (ed.),
The Reconstruction of International Monetary Arrangements, London: Macmillan, 92116.
Ghosh, A., A.-M. Gulde and H. Wolf (2003). Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences:
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Giavazzi, F. and A. Giovannini (1989). Limiting Exchange Rate Flexibility: The European Monetary
System, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Giavazzi, F. and L. Spaventa (1999). The new EMS, in P. De Grauwe and L. Papademos
(eds.), The European Monetary System in the 1990s, London: Longman.
Giovannini, A. (1989). How do fixed exchange-rate regimes work? Evidence from the Gold
Standard, Bretton Woods and the EMS, in M. Miller, B. Eichengreen and R. Portes (eds.),
Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, London: Academic Press, 1346.
Goldstein, M. (2004). Adjusting Chinas exchange rate policies, unpublished manuscript,
Institute for International Economics.
Goldstein, M. and P. Turner (2003). Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Market Economies,
unpublished manuscript, Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics.
Goodfriend, M. (1991). Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy, Carnegie Rochester
Conference Series on Public Policy, 34, 730.
Goto, J. and K. Hamada (1994). Economic preconditions for Asian regional integration, in
T. Ito and A. Krueger (eds.), Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates and Capital Flows,
Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 35985.
Grilli, V. and G.M. Milesi-Ferretti (1995). Economic effects and structural determinants of
capital controls, IMF Staff Papers, 42, 51751.
Hakura, D.S. (2005). Are emerging market countries learning to float? IMF Working Paper
No. 05/98 (May).
Hausmann, R., U. Panizza and E. Stein (2001). Why do countries float the way they float?
Journal of Development Economics, 66, 387414.
Husain, A., A. Mody and K. Rogoff (2004). Exchange rate regime durability and performance
in advance and developing economies, NBER Working Paper No. 10673 (August).
International Monetary Fund (2005). The IMFs approach to capital account liberalization,
Evaluation Report, Independent Evaluation Office, Washington, DC: IMF.
Katzenstein, P. (2005). A World of Regions, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Keynes, J.M. (1930). A Treatise on Money, London: Macmillan.
Krugman, P. (1980). Vehicle currencies and the structure of international exchange, Journal
of Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 51226.
Levy-Yeyati, E. and F. Sturzenegger (2003). To float or to fix: evidence on the impact of
exchange rate regimes on growth, American Economic Review, 93, 117393.
Lindert, P.H. (1969). Key currencies and gold 19001913, Princeton Studies in International
Finance No. 24, International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton
University.
Lyons, R.K. and M.J. Moore (2005). An information approach to international currencies,
NBER Working Paper No. 11220 (March).
Masson, P. (2001). Exchange rate regime transitions, Journal of Development Economics, 64, 571
86.
Masson, P. and F.J. Ruge-Murcia (2005). Explaining the transition between exchange rate
regimes, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107, 26178.
Matsuyama, K., N. Kiyotaki and A. Matsui (1993). Toward a theory of international currency,
Review of Economic Studies, 60, 283307.
McKinnon, R. and H. Pill (1997). Credible economic liberalizations and overborrowing,
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 87, 18993.
Mundell, R. (1963). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible
exchange rates, Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, 37585.
Mussa, M. (2004). Exchange rate adjustments needed to reduce global payments imbalances,
in C.F. Bergsten and J. Williamson (eds.), Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What? Washington,
DC: Institute for International Economics, 11338.
Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (2004). The unsustainable U.S. current account position
revisited, NBER Working Paper No. 10869 (November).
Obstfeld, M. and A. Taylor (2003). Globalization and capital markets, in M. Bordo, A.
Taylor and J. Williamson (eds.), Globalization in Historical Perspective, Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, 12190.
Peri, G. (2005). International migration: some comparisons and lessons for the EU, unpublished
manuscript, University of California, Davis.
Prasad, E., T. Rumbaugh and Q. Wang (2005). Putting the cart before the horse? Capital
account liberalization and exchange rate flexibility in China, IMF Policy Discussion Paper
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
Chuong trnh giang day kinh t Fulbright
Nin kho 2008-2010
Kinh t vi m Su tin ho cua cc co ch ty gi hi doi
Eichengreen & Gazo-Garcia Kim Chi 48
( January).
Prasad, E. and S. Wei (2005). The Chinese approach to capital inflows: patterns and possible
explanations, NBER Working Paper No. 11306 (May).
Reinhart, C. and K. Rogoff (2004). The modern history of exchange rate arrangements:
a reinterpretation, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 148.
Reinhart, C., K. Rogoff and M. Savastano (2003). Debt intolerance, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, 1, 174.
Rogoff, K.S., A.M. Husain, A. Mody, R. Brooks and N. Oomes (2003). Evolution and
performance of exchange rate regimes, IMF Working Paper No. 03/246 ( June).
Roubini, N. and B. Setser (2004). The U.S. as a net debtor: the sustainability of the U.S. external
imbalances, unpublished manuscript, Stern School of Business, New York University.
Singh, A., A. Belaisch, C. Collyns, P. De Masi, R. Krieger, G. Meredith and R. Rennhack
(2005). Stabilization and Reform in Latin America: A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience Since
the Early 1990s, Washington, DC: IMF.
Solomon, R. (1999). Money on the Move: The Revolution in International Finance since 1980, Princeton:
Princeton University Press.
Swoboda, A. (1986). Credibility and viability in international monetary arrangements, Finance
and Development, 23, 1518.
Wei, Shang-jin (2000). How taxing is corruption on international investors, Review of Economics
and Statistics, 82, 111.
Zhang, Z., K. Sato and M. McAleer (2003). Asian monetary integration: a structural VAR
approach, unpublished manuscript, Yokohama University and University of Western
Australia.
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m
C
lic
k
t
o
b
u
y
N
O
W
!
P
D
F-XChan
g
e
w
w
w
.d
o
cu-trac
k
.c
o
m