Professional Documents
Culture Documents
mua li, v h u thc hin khu hao cho hot ng ny. V y r rng l hnh ng
phi c thc hin. Trong ba nm trc , Krispy Kreme ghi nhn 174,5 triu
USD ti sn v hnh (quyn mua li nhng quyn), m cng ty khng i hi phi khu
hao. Ngy SEC ra thng bo, c phiu ca Krispy Kreme gim thm 15%, vi gi
ng ca mc $ 15,71 mt c phiu.
PHN NG CA CC CHUYN GIA
So vi giai on si ng vo nm 2001, khi 80% cc nh phn tch c phiu u a ra
khuyn ngh nn mua c phiu ca cng ty Krispy Kreme, nhng nhn nh thng gp
hin nay v cng ty thay i. Vo thi im t Wall Street ng ti bi vit v vic
thc hnh hch ton k ton nghip v mua li nhng quyn thng mi ca Krispy
Kreme trong thng 5/2004, ch cn 25% cc nh phn tch khuyn ngh mua c phiu
ca Krispy Kreme, 50% a khuyn ngh xung mc nm gi. Bng 4 v 5 cung cp
bng cc khuyn ngh ca cc nh phn tch tng hp v cc c tnh EPS. Khi kh khn
ca Krispy Kreme ln n nh im vo na cui nm 2004, cc nh phn tch ngy
cng tr nn bi quan v c phiu ca cng ty.
Khi s kin v cuc iu tra ca SEC v cc vn qun l khc ca Krispy Kreme vn
cn ang c tip din (v d, gim c iu hnh ca Krispy Kreme b sa thi vo ngy
16 thng 8, 2004), nh quan st nhn thy s nghim trng trong nn tng hot ng kinh
doanh ca Krispy Kreme. Trong thng 9, Wall Street Journal li ng ti mt bi bo tp
trung ch vo s tng trng ca cng ty ny:
Vn ln nht i vi Krispy Kreme c th l do cng ty pht trin qu nhanh v dn tri hot
ng kinh doanh ca mnh bng cch bn bnh doughnut ca n ti qu nhiu ca hng, trong n
lc gy n tng vi Ph Wall. S lng ca hng ca Krispy Kreme tng gn gp ba ln k
t u nm 2000, vi 427 ca hng ti 45 bang v bn quc gia nc ngoi. Khong 20.000 siu
th, ca hng tin ch, ca hng ti cc bn xe, v cc dng ca hng khc cng bn bnh
doughnut ca cng ty.
Mt vn khc l Krispy Kreme da vo ng k li nhun t vic bn thit b vi li nhun
bin cao m n yu cu cc bn nhn nhng quyn phi mua cho mi ca hng mi. Li nhun
ca n cng b rng buc cht ch vi s tng trng v s lng ca cc ca hng nhn nhng
quyn, v nhng khon ph m cc ca hng nhn nhng quyn phi tr trc cho cng ty.
Nhn nh
Ngy
Ngoi ra khi xem xt li bo co thu nhp, chng ti tin 29/7/2004
rng vn cn tn ti nhiu vn c bn, bao gm mt s
tc ng ca phng php gim cn"low-carb".
Gim khi lng giao dch ca cc ca hng mi l biu
th ca mt m hnh u t ngy cng xu i, v chng
5/19
John S. Glass,
CIBC
World
Markets
Glenn
Guard,
Mason
M.
Legg
thu ca nm ti chnh 2004 trong khong t 6,2 triu $ n 8,1 triu $. Cng ty cng d
kin s trnh by li bo co ti chnh cho qu u tin v th hai ca nm ti chnh 2005.
Krispy Kreme cng cho bit n s tr hon vic np bo co ti chnh cho n khi cuc
iu tra ca SEC c gii quyt v vic chnh n li ni b ca cng ty hon tt.
Tuy nhin, Vic cng ty khng cung cp cc bo co ti chnh cho cc ch n vo ngy
14 Thng Mt nm 2005 c th to nn mt s kh khn i vi khon tn dng 150 triu
$ ca cng ty. Trong tnh cnh kh khn nh vy, cc ngn hng ca Krispy Kreme c
quyn chm dt vic cho vay v yu cu thanh ton ngay lp tc i vi cc khon n
cha thanh ton. Krispy Kreme khng np bo co kp thi cng t cng ty vo nguy c
l c phiu ca n b hy b nim yt khi S Giao dch Chng khon New York
(NYSE). n cui ngy hm sau, c phn ca Krispy Kreme c giao dch mc thp
hn $ 10 mt c phn.
Hu ht cc nh phn tch cm thy rng ngi cho vay ca Krispy Kreme s cp cho
cng ty mt khon h tr trong tnh cnh kh khn v hn mc tn dng, v ch mt vi
nh phn tch cm thy cng ty thc s ri vo nguy c b hy b nim yt trn NYSE.
Tuy nhin, thng bo ca hi ng qun tr ch ng vai tr lm dy ln thm cc mi lo
ngi v cng ty. K t thng 8 nm 2003, gi tr th trng vn c phn ca cng ty
gim 2,5 t $. Bng 6 m t din bin gi c phiu cng ty trong mi lin h vi ch s
S&P 500. Liu s pht hin v cc thc hnh k ton nhng quyn ca cng ty
khin gi c phiu gim mnh n vy? Liu cn vn g n giu ti Krispy Kreme cn
c xem xt k lng? Bng 7, 8 v 9 cung cp cc t s ti chnh ca Krispy Kreme v
so snh vi mt nhm cc cng ty trong cng ngnh.
Hnh 1. Mu hnh gi c phiu cng ty so vi ch s tng hp S&P 500
Ngun: Datastream
7/19
3 thng kt thc
3 thng kt thc
3/2/2002
2/2/2003
1/2/2004
5/5/2003
2/5/2004
3/8/2003
1/8/2004
220,243
300,715
394,354
491,549
665,592
148,660
184,356
159,176
177,448
Chi ph hot ng
190,003
250,690
316,946
381,489
507,396
112,480
141,383
120,573
145,633
14,856
4,546
20,061
6,457
27,562
7,959
28,897
12,271
36,912
19,723
8,902
4,101
10,664
6,130
9,060
4,536
11,845
6,328
9,075
(525)
(525)
7,543
1,802
10,838
23,507
41,887
59,817
102,086
23,702
18,636
25,007
11,840
293
2,325
2,980
1,966
921
227
176
205
226
(1,525)
(607)
(337)
(1,781)
(4,409)
(866)
(1,433)
(997)
(1,366)
(706)
(602)
(2,008)
(1,836)
(694)
(575)
(802)
(399)
Li ch c ng thiu s
(716)
(1,147)
(2,287)
(2,072)
(616)
(126)
(616)
267
(20)
(235)
(934)
(13)
(25)
(156)
(343)
114
Thu nhp li
Chi ph li vay
9,606
23,783
42,546
54,773
94,677
21,728
6,522
22,454
10,682
3,650
9,058
16,168
21,295
37,590
8,588
6,675
9,014
4,438
4,285
439
480
13,001
5,764
Cc hot ng gin on
5,956
14,725
26,378
33,478
57,087
13,140
(24,438)
0.15
0.27
0.45
0.56
0.92
0.22
(0.38)
0.21
0.09
39.70
54.50
58.60
59.80
62.10
60.70
63.60
62.10
63.40
8/19
30/1/2000
KT THC NM TI KHA
28/1/2001
3/2/2002
2/2/2003
1/2/2004
KT THC 3 THNG
2/5/2004
1/8/2004
3,183
17,965
1,608
794
9,979
3,148
861
7,026
18,103
19,855
2,599
2,279
12,031
1,909
-
21,904
15,292
26,894
9,017
2,771
16,159
2,591
2,534
32,203
22,976
34,373
11,062
884
24,365
3,478
1,963
20,300
13,715
19,309
45,283
20,482
2,363
458
28,573
5,399
7,946
47,434
20,740
3,169
4,404
32,974
4,675
7,449
44,329
19,933
4,868
5,440
33,076
6,749
8,139
3,500
3,809
4,607
9,824
41,038
60,584
67,611
78,340
101,769
112,577
141,128
202,558
6,453
36,856
174,113
281,103
13,280
3,374
151,214
301,160
20,005
3,325
165,173
297,154
1,398
-
17,877
2,827
12,700
3,400
4,344
1,000
6,871
7,609
12,426
2,988
10,728
2,925
9,921
1,938
104,958
4,838
171,493
16,621
8,309
255,376
49,354
5,232
410,487
175,957
9,456
660,664
176,078
12,315
654,483
176,045
10,390
661,608
9/19
13,106
14,080
8,211
5,147
21,243
12,095
9,107
26,729
14,055
11,375
20,981
18,784
8,123
23,744
9,075
2,400
29,586
3,526
41
38,168
3,871
731
52,533
3,301
900
59,687
2,842
53,493
990
579
1,106
3,930
9,849
20,502
4,259
1,866
27,617
18,866
12,670
27,107
18,817
13,107
32,249
4,663
5,566
63,306
69,739
6,374
16,468
25,564
87,000
48,056
72,000
58,469
62,000
50,135
3,109
1,735
6,529
1,117
3,912
7,288
49,900
4,843
12,685
2,491
5,218
72,255
5,193
11,211
152,641
2,323
10,774
157,711
2,815
12,078
149,777
2,593
85,060
121,052
173,112
294,477
296,812
299,865
(188)
(2,349)
(126)
126
609
42,547
(186)
(2,580)
(138)
138
456
68,925
(119)
(558)
(339)
339
(1,486)
102,403
(62)
(383)
(369)
369
(1,315)
159,490
(47)
(383)
(264)
264
(783)
135,052
(31)
(383)
(264)
264
(768)
140,816
4,670
10,805
(2,547)
34,827
10/19
TNG VN CH S HU
TNG N V VN CH S HU
Ngun d liu: Bo co cng ty gi cho SEC
47,755
104,958
125,679
171,493
187,667
255,376
273,352
410,487
11/19
452,207
660,664
430,651
654,483
439,499
661,608
Thi gian
14/06/2001
19/07/2001
16/08/2001
20/09/2001
18/10/2001
% cc khuyn co
nm
gi
mua
bn
80.0% 20.0%
0.0%
80.0% 20.0%
0.0%
80.0% 20.0%
0.0%
80.0% 20.0%
0.0%
80.0% 20.0%
0.0%
12/19
15/11/2001
20/12/2001
17/01/2002
14/02/2002
14/03/2002
18/04/2002
16/05/2002
20/06/2002
18/07/2002
15/08/2002
19/09/2002
17/10/2002
14/11/2002
19/12/2002
16/01/2003
20/02/2003
20/03/2003
17/04/2003
15/05/2003
19/06/2003
17/07/2003
14/08/2003
18/09/2003
16/10/2003
20/11/2003
18/12/2003
15/01/2004
19/02/2004
18/03/2004
15/04/2004
20/05/2004
17/06/2004
15/07/2004
19/08/2004
16/09/2004
14/10/2004
18/11/2004
16/12/2004
20/01/2005
Ngun d liu: I/B/E/S (Thomsom financial/first call)
80.0%
80.0%
66.7%
57.1%
71.4%
66.7%
66.7%
71.4%
71.4%
71.4%
66.7%
57.1%
57.1%
50.0%
50.0%
62.5%
62.5%
62.5%
55.6%
66.7%
80.0%
83.3%
66.7%
66.7%
66.7%
42.9%
42.9%
28.6%
28.6%
37.5%
25.0%
25.0%
33.3%
28.6%
25.0%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
20.0%
20.0%
33.3%
28.6%
28.6%
33.3%
33.3%
28.6%
28.6%
28.6%
33.3%
28.6%
28.6%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
11.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
11.1%
28.6%
37.5%
42.9%
42.9%
57.1%
57.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
14.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
14.3%
14.3%
37.5%
37.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
33.3%
33.3%
20.0%
16.7%
16.6%
16.6%
16.6%
42.8%
42.8%
57.1%
57.1%
37.5%
50.0%
50.0%
55.6%
42.8%
37.5%
42.8%
42.8%
28.6%
28.6%
13/19
14/19
1/2/2004 nh ngha cc t s
28/1/2001
3/2/2002
2/2/2003
1.05
1.39
1.46
1.77
1.63
1.94
1.96
2.36
47.96%
32.41%
7.11
2.20
0.00%
0.00%
38.73
1.36
2.47%
2.41%
124.29
1.36
19.46%
16.29%
33.59
1.50
10.81
19.04
2.10
69.19
12.16
20.84
1.75
42.80
10.19
19.61
1.54
18.00
10.61
15.66
1.20
15.26
5.67%
12.47%
8.59%
11.72%
10.33%
14.06%
8.16%
12.25%
4.92%
2.70%
7.82%
4.90%
10.62%
6.69%
12.17%
6.81%
15/19
CHECKERS
CKE
190.00 1,413.00
DOMINO'S
JACK IN
THE BOX
KRISPY
KREME
Mc
DONALD'S
1,333.00
2,058.00
666.00
17,141.00
0.96
1.42
0.47
0.76
0.60
0.99
0.23
0.63
2.72
3.25
0.49
0.76
33.97
25.36
6.99
1.76
262.97
72.45
(0.09)
5.29
(131.07)
421.90
2.05
(0.62)
61.82
38.20
5.44
2.50
11.26
10.12
23.15
1.46
77.97
43.81
6.93
2.13
65.08
133.39
1.50
12.00
35.15
59.30
1.75
38.83
20.63
46.88
3.16
40.90
71.22
52.83
1.84
147.12
9.70
17.76
1.01
32.79
21.56
89.84
0.69
41.64
12.23
21.55
(5.92)
31.30
8.66
nmf
6.26
15.65
8.64
12.62
5.91
12.59
8.24
8.32
3.49
(3.24)
13.20
2.91
6.94
3.58
15.34
8.58
19.62
8.80
16/19
TN CNG TY
PAMERA
BREAD
PAPA
JOHNS
SONIC
STARBUCKS WENDY'S
YUM
BRANDS
356.00
917.00
447.00
4,076.00
3,149.00
3,380.00
1.34
1.58
0.33
0.77
0.77
0.92
0.76
1.52
0.61
0.88
0.26
0.55
0.00
0.00
1,014.10
1.26
38.30
26.98
8.93
2.18
0.21
0.21
1.31
39.39
28.26
9.25
1.80
183.57
64.74
5.79
5.02
32.42
38.75
1.64
8.74
50.29
44.87
2.57
110.73
27.49
111.24
1.00
40.31
38.44
10.58
1.62
10.84
28.42
79.58
1.08
17.12
49.73
91.32
1.52
46.04
12.46
15.64
9.79
21.33
10.75
19.69
9.83
12.89
7.46
13.42
11.00
58.18
14.02
8.61
6.38
3.70
23.42
11.70
9.48
6.58
13.35
7.49
12.77
7.37
62.53
38.11
14.09 nmf
1.83
Bng 8: M T CC CNG TY I TH
Checkers Drive-in Restaurants, Inc: checkers l mt # 1 chui cc nh hng thc n nhanh, vi hn 780 a im thuc s hu ca
cng ty v nhng quyn. Gn 30% cc a im ca n l thuc s hu ca cng ty.
CKE Restaurants, Inc: CKE l mt cng ty hng u trong lnh vc cung cp thc an nhanh, vi hn 3100 a im. CKE s hu v
iu hnh hn 1 / 3 cc nh hng ca n, phn cn li c iu hn Panera Bread Company: h bi ngi nhn nhng quyn.
17/19
Dominos Pizza, Inc: Domino l mt chui cc ca hng bn Pizza ln th 2 th gii, vi hn 7.750 a im hn 50 quc gia. Ca
hng ca Domino l mt a im giao hng v thng khng c bt k ch ngi no cho vic n ung.
Jack in the Box Inc: Jack trong Box cc hot ng v nhng quyn thng mi hn 2000 ca hng bnh hamburger hng u ca
n 17 bang. Hn 1550 a im cng ty thuc s hu, trong khi phn cn li c nhng quyn.
Tp on McDonalds: McDonald l cng ty bn thc n nhanh s 1 th gii vi hn 31.000 nh hng hng u phc v bnh m
kp tht v khoai ty chin ti hn 100 quc gia. Gn 30% cc ca hng ca n l cng ty thuc s hu, nhng ca hng cn li c
iu hnh bi nhng ngi nhn nhong quyn.
Panera Bread Company: Panera Bread l mt ngi tin phong trong lnh vc kinh doanh nh hng thc n nhanh tin li(quickcasual restaurant), vi hn 740 qun c ph tim bnh khong 35 bang. Khong 70% cc a im ca n c iu hnh bi nhng
ngi nhn nhng quyn.
Papa Johns International, Inc: Papa John l mt trong 3 chui ca hng cung cp bnh pizza, vi 3000 pizzerias trn khp Hoa K v
trong 17 th trng quc t. Papa John s hu v iu hnh khong 20% cc a im ca n.
Tp on Sonic: l mt tp on ln nht trong hot ng cung cp dch v thc n nhanh ti Hoa K, Sonic iu hnh khong 535
nh hng v cc c s nhng quyn thng mi ti hn 2.325 a im trong 30 tiu bang.
Tp on Starbucks: L mt tp on bn l c ph c sn s 1 th gii, Starbuck hot ng v c giy php hn 8500 ca hng c
ph ti hn 30 quc gia. Ngoi ra, Starbucks cung cp c ph thng qua cc ca hng tp ha, v xin giy php thng hiu ca mnh
cho thc phm v cc sn phm nc gii kht khc.
Wendys International, Inc: Wendy l mt trong 3chui bn bnh hamburger. Wendy C gn 6700 nh hng trn ton th gii,
khong 78% trong s l ca hng nhng quyn thong mi.
YUM! Brands, Inc: YUM! Brands, Incl mt trong nhng thng hiu nhn nhng quyn trong lnh vc cung cp thc n nhanh
ln nht trn ton th gii, ch sau McDonald trong tng doanh thu. N ng khch nh vo bnh burger khng l, tuy nhin ti cc
ca hng, vi hn 33.000 c s trong khong 100 quc gia (cng ty s hu v iu hnh khong 1/4 s ca hng v nhn nhng
quyn thng mi ca nhng ngi khc) . Cc thng hiu hng u ca cng ty bao gm KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell. Yum! Cng
s hu A & W All-American Food Restaurants v Long John Silvers. chin lc di hn ca cng ty l multibranding (cung cp
nhiu hn mt thng hiu ti mt khu vc) c chng minh l thnh cng.
18/19
2002
2003 KKD2003
Bng cn i: ti sn (%)
Tin v tong ng tin
12.8
12.4
13.7
3.1
Phi thu khch hng (rng)
1.6
0.9
1.4
10.4
Hng tn kho
4
3.3
3.8
4.3
Cc ti sn ngn hn khc
2.6
2.6
3.5
8.6
Tng ti sn ngn hn
11
9.6
10
4.5
Bng cn i: N v vn ch s hu(%)
Phi tr, ngn hn
4.7
5.6
5.8
0
N di hn n hn tr
6.1
6
6.8
0.4
Phi tr ngi bn
9.2
7.4
9.3
2.8
Thu thu nhp phi tr
0.2
0.2
0.3
0
Cc khon n ngn hn khc
13.9
16.9
14
4.8
Tng n ngn hn
34.1
36.1
36.4
8.1
N di hn
40.2
45.6
41.9
7.3
Thu thu nhp tr hon
0.1
0.2
0.1
1
Cc khon n di hn khc
4.7
8.3
8.7
14.9
Vn ch s hu
20.9
9.9
12.9
68.4
Tng n v vn ch s hu
100
100
100
100
Bo co thu nhp(%)
Doanh thu thun
100
100
100
100
Chi ph hot ng
56.3
55.6
58.1
76.2
Li nhun hot ng
4
4.7
4
15.3
Cc chi ph khc (rng)
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.1
Li nhun trc thu
2.7
3
2.5
14.2
Ngun d liu: Ngin cu bo co thng nin: 2004-2005, Hip hi qun tr ri ro
19/19