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NOI DUNG

Chng 2: PHAN TCH, ANH GIA

KTN, KT XH TAC ONG EN S DUNG AT

Muc ch, yeu cau Noi dung can phan tch, anh gia Phng phap s dung trong phan tch anh gia

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

Muc tieu, san pham

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 1. ieu kien t nhien - V tr a ly - a hnh a mao - Kh hau, thi tiet - Thuy van, nguon nc

Phan tch, anh gia ac iem va xac nh nhng li the, han che ve ieu kien t nhien, cac nguon tai nguyen, canh quan moi trng; thc trang phat trien KT-XH tac ong en viec khai thac s dung at.
au vao: thong tin, t lieu, tai lieu, ban o thu thap c. San pham: Li the va han che ve nguon lc cua a phng

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 2. Tai nguyen thien nhien - Tai nguyen at - Tai nguyen nc - Tai nguyen sinh vat - Tai nguyen khoang san - Tai nguyen bien - Tai nguyen nhan van

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 3. Canh quan, moi trng - Canh quan, he sinh thai - Hien trang moi trng 4. Thc trang phat trien kinh te - Tang trng kinh te - Chuyen dch c cau KT - Phat trien cac nganh KT

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 5. Thc trang phat trien xa hoi - Hien trang dan so - Gia tang dan so - Phan bo va chuyen dch - Lao ong, viec lam - Thu nhap - Tap quan s dung at

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia

6. Thc trang phat trien o th va KDC nong thon - V tr phan bo, ac iem hnh thanh, vai tro, y ngha - Quy mo dien tch, dan so

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 8. Cac chnh sach KT-XH - Khuyen khch au t nc ngoai - Khuyen khch au t trong nc - Quyen va ngha vu ngi s dung at - Kinh doanh bat ong san...

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7. Thc trang phat trien ha tang ky thuat, ha tang xa hoi - Giao thong - Thuy li - Giao duc ao tao - Y te, van hoa, TDTT - Nang lng, Bu chnh VT - Quoc phong An ninh...

Cac noi dung can phan tch, anh gia 9. anh gia nguon lc:

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Phng phap phan tch, anh gia

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- Li the, han che trong khai thac, s dung - Li the, han che so sanh - Giai phap khai thac, s dung

Noi dung - Phan tch thc trang - anh gia

Phng phap - Phng phap ke tha - Phng phap thong ke - Phng phap KIP - Phng phap SWOT

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Phng phap thong ke

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PHNG PHAP THONG KE Trong QHSD

Mot so v du Khai niem Cac so lieu thong ke thong thng

Phng phap thong ke v du V du 1: Cho ket qua hoc cua A nh sau: Mon hoc Anh van 1 Trac a C C hoc at Triet hoc Tn ch 5 3 2 4 iem

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Phng phap thong ke v du Ho 8,0 7,5 5,0 9,0 Nguyen Van E Dng Van D Tran Th B Hoang Van C ... Tong so ho cua xa A la 113 ho

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V du 2: Cho ket qua ieu tra thu nhap xa A nh sau: Thu nhap (/thang) 320.000 120.000 960.000 560.000 ...

Hay anh gia ket qua hoc cua A?

Hay anh gia ve mc song cua ngi dan xa A?

Phng phap thong ke v du

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Phng phap thong ke Khai niem

Suy luan Quan sat

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So ho 35 46 20 12 Tong so ho: 113

Thu nhap (/thang) < 150.000 150.000 - 350.000 350.000 - 950.000 >950.000
- Dien dch - Quy nap Thong ke

La nganh khoa hoc nghien cu cac so lieu ri rac hoac lien tuc, t o phan tch e anh gia hien tng, s vat, giai quyet nhng van e chung va rieng.

Cac so lieu thong ke

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Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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So thong ke tng oi So thong ke tuyet oi

- So thong ke tuyet oi thi ky (VD: dien tch at nong nghiep trong thi ky 20002005 tang them 175ha...) - So thong ke tuyet oi thi iem (VD: Dan so nam 2000 la 120.000 ngi) - So thong ke tng oi ong thai (cung loai khac thi

gian)

vd: Dien tch nam 2001 tang hn 2000 la 1,3 lan (hoac 20%) Muc ch: giau so tuyet oi, e so sanh Co the ky goc lien hoan hoac nh goc

Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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So thong ke tng oi
- So thong ke tng oi ke hoach V du: D kien: 20.000 ha at lua at c: 18.200ha Nh vay, at 91% ke hoach

So thong ke tng oi
- So thong ke tng oi ket cau (ty trong moi bo phan

trong tong the)

Tong dien tch - Nong nghiep - Phi nong nghiep - Cha s dung

45000 26000 11000 8000

100.00 57.78 24.44 17.78

Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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So thong ke tng oi
- So thong ke tng oi cng o vd: mat o dan so nam 2000 la 230 ngi/km2

So thong ke tng oi
loai)
- So thong ke tng oi so sanh (cung thi gian khac 45000 26000 11000 8000

Tong dien tch - Nong nghiep - Phi nong nghiep - Cha s dung

at nong nghiep = 2,36 lan at phi nong nghiep

Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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Phng phap thong ke Cac so lieu thong ke

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So thong ke bnh quan

- Bnh quan n gian - Bnh quan gia quyen Xa A B C So ho 50 60 80 at bnh quan (m2/ngi) 300 200 150

Phan to thong ke
- Lao ong nong nghiep, phi nong nghiep - Ho ngheo, trung bnh, giau...

Tnh at bnh quan cua huyen

Phng phap thong ke Bai tap ap dung

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Cho mot so thong tin sau ay ve Q12 nam 2005: Tong dien tch t nhien: 5.275ha Dan so: 284.180 ngi; so ho: 70.383 ho GDP (ty ong) - Cong nghiep - Nong nghiep - Dch vu Nam 2000 1415.00 569.25 64.67 781.08 Nam 2005 2789.00 1155.48 65.36 1568.16

PHNG PHAP SWOT Trong QHSD

Yeu cau: hay phan tch mot so ac iem KT-XH Q12, dung phng phap thong ke?

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

NOI DUNG

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT V du ng dung ien hnh ng dung SWOT trong QHSD

Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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C hoi

Thach thc

SWOT MAT MANH

(Strengths - S)

(Opportunities O)

C HOI

NGUY C
(Threats - T)

a phng
(Weaknesses - W)

Tan dung c hoi e phat huy the manh

(O/S)

Tan dung mat manh e giam thieu nguy c

(S/T)

MAT YEU

iem manh

iem yeu

Nam bat c hoi Giam cac mat yeu e khac phuc mat e ngan chan yeu nguy c (W/T) (O/W)
S o : Ma tran SWOT

Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Cac lnh vc co the ng dung SWOT: - Xay dng chien lc, chnh sach, phat trien - Phan tch, anh gia hien trang - D bao xu the phat trien - Xay dng giai phap ieu chnh - T anh gia (anh gia nang lc) - anh gia oi thu canh tranh...

1. iem manh:
- a phng co li the g? - a phng co the lam g tot hn nhng ni khac?

- a phng co g ac biet nhat hoac re nhat?

- Ben ngoai thay a phng bi nhng u iem g?

Mo ta that ky, khach quan tnh chat, ac iem cua oi tng, t o chia thanh u va nhc. Quan tam en cac oi tng cung loai

Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT - au la c hoi tot nhat co the mang lai? - au la xu the tot ang mong i?

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2. iem yeu: - a phng phai cai thien ieu g? - a phng phai khac phuc nhng ieu g? - a phng thua nhng ni khac ieu g? - Nhng g ma dng nh moi ngi cho rang the la Yeu?

3. C hoi:

- Nhng c hoi c xem la co hieu qua (co ch) thng c mang en nh sau: * Co s thay oi ve cong nghe va th trng * Co s thay oi ve chnh sach * Thay oi ve c cau KT - XH * Nhng s kien tai a phng...
Mot cach tiep can hieu qua la nhn vao iem manh va t van lieu co m ra c hoi nao khong. Tng t nhn vao iem yeu va t van lieu co the co c hoi bang cach loai bo cac iem yeu nay khong.

Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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4. Thach thc - Tr ngai cua a phng la g? - Cac a phng khac ang lam g? - Co phai ang co nhng xu the a phng khong nam bat c? - S thay oi co anh hng en v tr cua a phng? - Lieu co iem yeu nao cua a phng e doa nghiem trong en s phat trien? ... Bc 1 : Phan tch cac yeu to ben ngoai (External Factors) va cac yeu to ben trong
(Internal Factors)

Bc 2: Lap ma tran oi chieu O,P/S,T Bc 3: Xac nh cac van e chnh, cac c hoi chnh, a ra cac khuyen ngh (recommendation)

Gii thieu ve phng phap SWOT

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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ng dung phng phap SWOT vao phan tch anh gia chu trng gian dan cua TPHCM va e xuat mot so giai phap can lu y trong thi gian ti

Hnh: Giao dien phan mem SWOT Expert 2.0

V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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S1 = TP.HCM a au t tao viec lam ben ngoai nhieu (cac khu CN tap trung). S2 = C cau au t co chu y c s ha tang, mac du cha nhieu. S3 = a hnh thanh 5 Quan mi (at ai ben ngoai con nhieu). S4 = Co he thong quan ly ho khau ben trong tot (tam tru tam vang). S5 = a thc hien mot so d an xay nha tai nh c cho mot bo phan dan c ra ngoai. S6 = Tng bc hoan thien chnh sach ieu tiet th trng at ai, lao ong.

W1 = Quy hoach vi cac ch tieu khong che dan so hi cng nhac, kho thc thi. W2 = Trach nhiem thc hien cua cac n v s nganh cha ro rang. W3 = Cha chuan b kp cac ha tang giao thong noi ket tot va HTXH. W4 = Cha co chnh sach u ai ro rang (gia nha thap, u ai ngi lao ong). W5 = So lng nha (khu dan c) cha c au t theo ke hoach d kien. W6 = Nhu cau giai tr ben ngoai cha ap ng tot.

V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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O1 = Lanh ao TP nhan thc tam quan trong chu trng gian dan (ket xe hien nay). O2 = Co ieu chnh quy hoach theo hng kha thi hn (ch tieu phan bo dan c). Co Ngh nh phan cap cho TP (N 93). O3 = Nhieu khu dan c ben ngoai a va ang xay dng danh cho chng trnh tai nh c chnh trang ben trong. O4 = Quyet tam a ch au moi va cong nghiep o nhiem ra ben ngoai. O5 = Chnh sach u ai ra ngoai ang tng bc nghien cu va ap dung.

T1 = D bao luong di dan t tnh khac se rat ln, anh hng en chu trng gian dan. T2 = o th hoa tran lan, kho kiem soat (moc len khu dan c t phat). T3 = Viec lam khu CN ben ngoai cha hap dan dan c ben trong i ra (lc hut). T4 = Von au t kho tap trung, va chnh trang ben trong, va lo ben ngoai. T5 = Gia nha cac khu dan c ben ngoai qua at. T6 = Nhieu ho muon quay tr vao noi thanh do ha tang con qua kem (ket xe, giao thong kho khan). T7 = Ap lc li nhuan, dan en au t khu dan c, nha ben trong lam gia tang mat o dan c ben trong noi thanh.

V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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1. Tan dung c hoi e phat huy the manh: O2/S2 = Tan dung Ngh nh 93 phan cap o th e au t c s ha tang ben ngoai. O4 /S1, S2 = Tan dung cac c hoi a ch au moi va cac c s san xuat ra ngoai O3/S5 = Tiep tuc thc hien cac cong trnh, d an chnh trang ben trong, tai nh c
e thu hut au t, tao them viec lam cung nh au t manh ha tang khu vc ben ngoai.

2. Nam bat c hoi khac phuc cac mat yeu:

O2/W1 = Tan dung viec ieu chnh quy hoach theo hng kha thi e chnh lai cac ch
Tan dung s nhan thc cua lanh ao hien nay, nhanh chong ra soat va phan cong lai trach nhiem cua tng nganh, tng cap, tng d an.

O1/W2, W3 =

tieu cng nhac.

O5/ S3 = Chnh sach u ai oi vi dan c, doanh nghiep ra khu vc ben ngoai,

nham phat trien va thu hut dan c ra 5 quan mi. chu trng gian dan trong giai oan hien nay (ang b van nan ket xe, qua tai CSHT), se tiep tuc au t manh CSHT ra ben ngoai cung nh tiep tuc quan ly ho khau ben trong that tot, han che phan nao dan nhap c va cac tieu cc phat sinh.

a dan ra ben ngoai nham gop phan thc hien theo hng ieu chuyen dan c cac ho lup xup ben trong ra ngoai sinh song.

O4/W3, W4 = Tan dung quyet tam cua chnh quyen TP di di cac ch au moi va x nghiep o nhiem ra ben ngoai e hoan thien ha tang xa hoi cung nh ban hanh cac chnh sach u ai cho c s va u ai cho ngi lao ong chuyen ra. O5/W5
= Hoan thien va tan dung chnh sach u ai oi vi khu vc ben ngoai nham thu hut nhieu nha au t nha .

O3/W3 = Tan dung s xuat hien cua nhieu khu dan c ben ngoai, tap trung au t manh hn cac c s ha tang, nhat la cac truc giao thong noi ket.

O1/S2, S4 = Tan dung nhan thc cua lanh ao thanh pho ve tam quan trong cua

O6/W6 = Tan dung chnh sach thu hut au t cac khu vui chi giai tr, tao moi trng song phong phu ve tinh than, hap dan dan c.

V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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3. Tan dung manh e giam thieu nguy c:

S3, S4/T1 = Tan dung the manh at ai cac quan mi e tao mot vung em ngan S2/T2, T6 = Tan dung the manh ve au t ha tang ben ngoai e quy hoach khu dan S5/T3 =
c mi, tranh nguy c o th hoa tran lan. Tan dung cac cong trnh, d an tai nh c, chnh trang nha lup xup ben trong e a dan ra ngoai, phoi hp ao tao tay nghe. chan luong di dan vao noi thanh; tan dung the manh ve he thong quan ly dan c , ap dung che o khai bao va kiem soat nhap c.

4. Giam mat yeu e ngan chan nguy c:

= Phan cong trach nhiem cua tng S nganh cu the ro rang e giam bt cac yeu to rui ro nh gia nha ben ngoai con qua cao, chay theo li nhuan xay dng mi cac khu dan c va nha khu vc ben trong. = au t so lng nha ben ngoai nhieu va phong phu hn; chnh sach u ai cho cac nha au t khu vc ben ngoai tot hn, se gop phan giam bt cac khu dan c t phat. = au t ha tang giao thong noi ket tot se tao ieu kien ngi dan ra ngoai sinh song va van lam viec ben trong, giam bt hien tng quay tr lai noi thanh lam ni c tru.

W2/ T5, T7

W4/W5/ T2 W3/T6

S3/T4/T7 = Tan dung the manh ve at ai co san cac quan mi e u tien au t so lng nha ben ngoai , kiem soat nghiem ngat viec hnh thanh cac khu dan c nha mi ben trong. S5/T5 = S6/T2 = Tan dung the manh ve cong tac nghien cu va hoan thien cac chnh sach va
cac yeu to th trng e ieu tiet va quan ly viec phat trien nha t phat tran lan. Tan dung the manh cac cong trnh xay dng nha , lien ket vi mot so cong chc, doanh nghiep xay va ban nha vi gia ca va phai.

W6/T6 = Khac phuc viec thieu cac khu vui chi, giai tr se gop phan tao lc hut oi
vi nhng ngi ben trong muon ra ben ngoai sinh song.

V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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V du phan tch SWOT ien hnh

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e xuat cac giai phap cu the: OI VI KHU VC BEN NGOAI (quan mi, ngoai thanh): 1. Tao viec lam nhieu ben ngoai; 2. Phat trien c s ha tang ay u, thuan tien; 3. Gia nha re hn ben trong (tr cap gia nha ) 4. ap ng nhu cau giai tr ngi dan ben ngoai 5. Chnh sach u ai ra ngoai; 6. Quan ly lao ong nhap c ben ngoai;

e xuat cac giai phap cu the: OI VI KHU VC BEN TRONG (noi thanh) 7. Bien phap quan ly dan nhap c ben trong; 8. Han che hnh thanh khu dan c ben trong; 9. D an chnh trang ben trong, ket hp gian dan.

ng dung SWOT trong QHSD 1. anh gia ieu kien t nhien, KT-XH 2. D bao nhu cau s dung at 3. Gop phan xay dng phng an QHSD 4. e xuat cac giai phap thc hien

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Bai tap ap dung:

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1. Anh (ch) hay ap dung phng phap SWOT e la chon hng e tai khoa luan tot nghiep cho ban than? 2. Anh (ch) hay anh gia ve ieu kien t nhien, tai nguyen thien nhien va kinh te xa hoi cua huyen Can Gi, s dung phng phap SWOT?