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NOI DUNG

D bao

Chng 4: D BAO DAN SO

D BAO NHU CAU S DUNG AT

D bao dan so
D bao nhu cau s dung at

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

D bao

Co nguon goc t tieng Hy Lap:

Pro-

-grosis

Trc

biet

Forecast
Thuoc tnh khong the thieu cua bo nao
ngi: s phan anh vt trc

D bao

Trong lch s, con ngi luon hng ve pha

trc:

- Chuon chuon bay thap th ma, bay cao...

- Ech keu uom uom, ao chum ay nc...
Cac c oan mang nang tnh kinh nghiem
Mang nang mau sac ton giao, than b (li tien
tri, thay boi toan...)

D bao

The ky 16-17: cac khoa hoc nh toan, vat ly,

thien van... ra i
Cac d bao co tnh khoa hoc dan xuat hien
Gia TK 17, nganh thong ke hoc ra i d bao
gia tang o chnh xac

D bao

Mot so mo hnh d bao

1. Mo hnh kinh te lng
2. Mo hnh I/O (Input-Output)
3. Mo hnh chuoi thi gian
4. Mo hnh toi u hoa
5. Mo hnh nhan to (ch tieu)

1.Xac nh mu7 c tieu

D bao

Tien trnh d bao

(9 bc)

2. oi tng d bao
3. Thi gian d bao
4. Xem xet d lieu
5. La chon mo hnh

6. anh gia mo hnh

D BAO DAN SO

(Population Forecast)

7. D bao
8. Trnh bay ket qua
9. Theo doi ket qua

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

D bao dan so

D bao dan so

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[1] Phng phap ke tha

Bai toan dan so la tien e cho phng an Quy

hoach noi chung va QHSD noi rieng

[2] Phng phap cong thc dan so

[3] Phng phap hoi quy
[4] Phng phap ket hp

D bao dan so

Co

Ke tha

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Thu thap so lieu

Khong

- Ke tha ket qua d bao cua nganh dan so

Ty le tang dan so

Cong thc
dan so

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- Ke tha so lieu d bao cua QH tong the KT-XH

Dan so nam QH

Co

Phng phap ke tha

Khong

Chuoi dan so
qua kh

- Tong hp t ket qua d bao cua cac nganh (o th

va nong thon)
- Ke tha ket qua d bao cua QHSD cap tren

Hoi quy

Phng phap Cong thc dan so

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Cong thc gia tang t nhien

Dan so huyen A nam 2007 la: 230.000 ngi

k: ty le gia tang t nhien trung bnh

Giai oan 2008 en 2010, ty le tang dan so c d

bao nh sau:
2008
2009
2010

Cong thc gia tang t nhien-c hoc

1,85%

Nt = N0 (1 + k+d-r)t

Phng phap Cong thc dan so

15

V du 2:
Dan so huyen A nam 2007 la: 230.000 ngi
Giai oan 2008 en 2010, ty le tang dan so c d
bao nh sau:
2009

2010

1,64%

1,32%

0,8%

0,7%

0,6%

Ty le nhap c 2,33%

2,51%

2,62%

Ty le xuat c

Hay d bao dan so huyen A nam 2010?

1,64%

1,32%

Hay d bao dan so huyen A nam 2010?

Ty le tang t nhien 1,85%

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V du 1:

Nt = N0 (1 + k)t

2008

Phng phap Cong thc dan so

Phng phap Hoi quy

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- Hoi quy tuyen tnh:

y = ax+b+u1
- Hoi quy phi tuyen tnh:
+ Ham mu: y

= axb +u2

+ Ham parabol: y
+ Ham sin: y

= ax2 +bx + c +u3

= asinx +b +u4
..

Phng phap Hoi quy

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Phng phap Hoi quy

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V du 3:

ap an:

Cho chuoi so lieu dan so huyen A nh sau (n v

ngi):

1. Dung ham Average:

2003
203.450

2004
210.500

2005
217.400

2006
223.800

2007
230.000

Hay d bao dan so huyen A vao nam 2010?

- S dung phng phap trung bnh dai han

- S dung phng phap trung bnh ong
2. Dung ham Trend (pp bnh phng nho nhat)
3. Dung ham Forecast
4. Dung ham Slope va Intercept
5. Dung hoi quy (Regression)

Phng phap tong hp

ieu kien ap dung:
- Khi co nhieu so lieu d bao dan so
- Cac so lieu dan so mau thuan nhau
- Gia tang o tin cay cua d bao

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Phng phap tong hp

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V du 4:
So lieu dan so cua 3 phng thuoc quan 12 nh sau:
Ten phng
An Phu ong
Thanh Loc
Thanh Xuan
Toan huyen

Dan so
2005
47.800
39.500
40.300
127.600

D(%) giai oan

2006-2010
5,4
3,8
2,9

Phng phap tong hp

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V du 4:

Phng phap tong hp

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V du 5:

Theo o an QH chung Quan 12 a phe duyet, dan so

quan 12 vao nam 2010 d kien se la 165.240 ngi.
Yeu cau: D bao dan so cho cac Phng vao nam
2010?

Chuoi dan so cua phng A thu thap c nh sau:

Nam
Dan so trung
bnh

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

36420

37804

39089

40261

41306

Biet ty le gia tang dan so cua phng bien thien theo

ham y=ax2 + bx + c
Vi y: ty le tang dan so; x: nam

Phng phap tong hp

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V du 5:
Yeu cau: d bao dan so Phng A vao nam 2010?

D BAO
NHU CAU S DUNG AT

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

Nhu cau s dung at

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Can c:

Nhu cau s dung at

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Nguyen tac d bao chung:

- Muc tieu Quy hoach

- at nong nghiep:

- Yeu cau phat trien nganh

SQ = SH SC + SK

- Kha nang au t

- at phi nong nghiep:

- Quy at ai
Cac nganh t d bao se tot hn nhng phien dien,
de chong cheo ap dung nh mc

Nhu cau s dung at

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nh mc at phi nong nghiep:

(Can c: Cong van 5763/BTNMT ngay 25/12/06)
1. at y te

7. at thuy li

2. at VH-TT

8. at cong nghiep

3. at giao duc

9. at o th

4. at TD-TT

10. at KDC nong thon

Nhu cau
cac nganh

P x M

Nhu cau s dung at

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nh mc at phi nong nghiep:

- nh mc s dung at theo cong trnh
- nh mc s dung at theo au ngi

5. at thng nghiep-dch vu
6. at giao thong

Nhu cau s dung at

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1. nh mc at y te:

Nhu cau s dung at

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1. nh mc at y te:

- Tram y te xa: 1.200-1.700m2/tram

- Cap xa: 0,26 - 0,34 m2/ngi

- Benh vien huyen: 9.000-30.000

- Cap huyen: 0,54 - 0,65

- Benh vien a khoa tnh: 18.000-48.000

- Cap tnh: 0,86 - 1,15

- Benh vien a khoa TW: 40.000-120.000

Nhu cau s dung at

2. nh mc at van hoa:
- Cap xa: 0,32-0,42 m2/ngi
- Cap huyen: 0,68-0,86
- Cap tnh: 0,74-1,23
Cac cong trnh ac thu: 1-1,5ha/cong trnh
- Bao tang tnh
- Bao tang chuyen nganh

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Nhu cau s dung at

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3. nh mc at giao duc:
1. Nha tre:
2. Mau giao:
3. Tieu hoc:
4. THCS:
5. THPT:
6. TT KTTH:
7. THCN,nghe:
8. H,C:

0,23-0,63
0,50-0,92
1,34-1,67
1,33-1,60
1,14-1,27
0,25-0,55
0,24-0,66
0,44-0,89

Xa
Huyen

Tnh

- Bao tang Quoc gia.

Nhu cau s dung at

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3. nh mc at giao duc:

Nhu cau s dung at

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4. nh mc at the thao:

- Cap xa: 3,40-4,82 m2/ngi

- Cap xa: 1,76-2,34 m2/ngi

- Cap huyen: 4,54-6,09

- Cap huyen: 2,17-2,89

- Cap tnh: 4,78-6,75

- Cap tnh: 2,62-3,37

- Trong trng hoc: 0,12-0,14

Nhu cau s dung at

5. nh mc at TM-DV:

(Ch, ca hang, TT TM, sieu th)

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Nhu cau s dung at

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6. nh mc at cong nghiep:
- Mien nui: 50-200ha/khu CN

- Cap xa: 0,38-0,68 m2/ngi

- ong bang: 200-300

- Cap huyen: 0,61-1,13

- Ven bien: 300-400

- Cap tnh: 0,90-2,50

- Nha may:
- Khu ky thuat:
- Khu hanh chnh:
- Giao thong:
- Cay xanh:

- Ch au moi: 6,0-20,0 ha/ch

- Trung tam thng mai: 10,0-20,0 ha/CT
- Sieu th: 0,05-4,00 ha/CT

50-60%
2-5%
2-4%
15-20%
10-15%

Nhu cau s dung at

Loai

>1,5tr

>85%

ong bo
hoan chnh
Nhieu mat

>50van

>12.000

Vug,nc

>80%

Nhieu mat

>25van

>10.000

III

Tnh,vug

>75%

Tng mat

>10van

>8.000

IV

Tnh,vug

>70%

Tng mat

>5van

>6.000

Huyen

>65%

XD, cha

>4.000

>2.000

Ca nc
quoc te
Vug,nc

II

L
PNN
>90%

CSHT

QM DS

37

MDS
ng/km2
>15.000

V tr

7. Phan cap o th

Theo N 72/2001

Nhu cau s dung at

7. nh mc at o th

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Nhu cau s dung at

7. nh mc at o th

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Loai

nh mc (m2/ng)

80-100

90-110

II

100-120

III

110-130

IV

120-150

150-200

Nhu cau s dung at

8. nh mc at ngha a
(Theo N 35/2008)

- at :

16-25%

- CTCC:

2-8%

- Hung tang va an tang: 5m2/mo

- Giao thong:

12-32%

- Cai tang: 3m2/mo

- Cay xanh:

4-14%

- Khac:

30-57%

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Kinh nghiem: 0,06 ha/1000dan

10

Nhu cau s dung at

8. nh mc at ngha a
Tn vng
1. Vng Trung du MNBB
2. Vng ng bng Bc B
3. Vng Bc Trung B
4. Vng Duyn hi NTB
5. Vng Ty Nguyn
6. Vng ng Nam B
7. Vng ng bng SCL
C nc

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Bnh qun trn u

ngi (m2)
10,62
7,58
27,07
23,26
8,49
2,97
3,56
10,68

Nhu cau s dung at

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Bai tap ap dung:

Loai at
Tong dien tch
at nong nghiep
at phi nong nghiep
- at
- at y te
- Giao duc
- Giao thong
- at ngha a
Cha s dung

Nhu cau s dung at

Bai tap ap dung:

42

Th tran A (o th loai V) co cac ac iem sau:

- Dan so 2005 la 9.200 ngi
- D bao giai oan 2005-2010 dan so tang trung bnh
3,22%/nam

Nhu cau s dung at

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Yeu cau:
DT 2005

(m2)
112,00
25,00
78.50
35,00
0,16
3,20
39,50
0,64
8,50

1. anh gia tnh hp ly cua HTSD2005?

2. D bao dan so nam 2010?
3. Xac nh nhu cau s dung at cua cac nganh en
nam 2010?

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