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NOI DUNG

1. Mot so khai niem 2. Xay dng cac phng an 3. La chon phng an 4. Trnh bay phng an chon

PHNG AN QHSD

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l a n n i n g

Th.S. Nguyen Trng Ngan

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1. Mot so khai niem Kch ban (scenarios) Phng an (projects, plans) Phng an thay the (alternatives) Phng an chon Hieu qua phng an

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1. Mot so khai niem Kch ban (Scenario)

Mot kch ban la mot mo ta mach lac, nhat quan noi bo va hp ly ve mot tnh trang tng lai co the cua oi tng. Mot kch ban khong phai la mot d bao ma la mot anh chup nhanh ve tng lai co the m ra nh the nao.
Vien Nghien cu Chnh sach Lng thc Quoc te

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1. Mot so khai niem Phng an (project) Ban trnh bay d kien viec phai lam

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1. Mot so khai niem Phan biet kch ban va phng an - Kch ban: d bao (khong chac chan)

D kien ve cach thc, trnh t tien hanh cong viec trong ieu kien, hoan canh nhat nh nao o

- Phng an: hanh ong hoac khong hanh ong (gan vi muc tieu)

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2. Xay dng cac phng an Can c 1. Ket qua anh gia nguon lc 2. Ket qua d bao nhu cau s dung at 3. Tiem nang at ai 4. nh hng

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2. Xay dng cac phng an Quy trnh: Xac nh muc tieu Xay dng cac phng an La chon phng an Phan ky, lap ke hoach tnh toan chu chuyen e xuat giai phap

- Phat trien kinh te xa hoi - S dung at cac nganh - Chien lc, chnh sach, phap luat ve at ai

Xay dng ban o

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2. Xay dng cac phng an Cac phng an - Phng an n muc tieu - Phng an a muc tieu

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2. Xay dng cac phng an Bai tap 1:

10

Mot a phng co nhu cau thc hien quy hoach dien tch at trong lua va au. Ket qua d bao nhu cau s dung at: - Toi thieu can 600 tan lua. - Toi a ch co the tieu thu c 320 tan au

Thng s dung bai toan toi u (Min, Max) Quy hoach tuyen tnh Quy hoach phi tuyen Quy hoach ong...

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l a n LUTs n i LUT1 n LUT2 g

11 2. Xay dng cac phng an Bai tap 1: Ket qua anh gia tiem nang at nong nghiep: 1. a phng ch thch hp canh tac 2 LUT: - LUT1: 2 vu lua + 1 vu mau - LUT2: 1 vu lua + 2 vu mau 2. Hieu qua kinh te cua 2 LUT:

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12 2. Xay dng cac phng an Bai tap 1: Ket qua anh gia tiem nang at nong nghiep: 3. Nang suat cac loai nh sau: - Lua: 3 tan/ha - au: 2 tan/ha

Hieu qua kinh te (trieu ong/ha) Tong thu nhap 5,0 7,0 Chi ph 3,0 1,0 Li nhuan 2,0 6,0

Yeu cau: S dung phng phap o th xay dng phng an bo tr dien tch 2 LUT sao cho: 1. Nhom 1: Toi a hoa li nhuan 2. Nhom 2: Toi thieu hoa chi ph

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P 1. Mot so ac iem 2 loai hnh s dung at nay:

l a n n i n g Loai at So l co Doanh thu viec lam (tr/ha/thang) (ng/ha) 20 4 30 20

13 2. Xay dng cac phng an Bai tap 2: Hay xay dng phng an bo tr dien tch at chuyen trong lua (LUC) va at khu cong nghiep (SKK) nham muc tieu toi a hoa lao ong. Dung phng phap o th. Biet rang:

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2. Xay dng cac phng an Bai tap 2: 2. Cac rang buoc nh sau:

14

- Tong tiem nang cua 2 loai at nay la 300ha. - Tong doanh thu toi thieu can at la 2 ty ong/ thang. - Tong so tien tr cap that nghiep tiet kiem c cho ngan sach nha nc toi thieu phai at 1,2 ty ong/nam.

LUC SKK

Chi ph tr cap that nghiep (tr/l/nam) 0,4 0,1

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Nguyen Trng Ngan

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1. Khai quat qua trnh la chon

16

La chon
Phng an Quy hoach ch
s dung at ai ng

La chon phng an QHSD la trach nhiem cua a phng

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1. Khai quat qua trnh la chon

Lap Quy hoach 1. UBND 2. Ban QLDA 3. TNMT 4. T van VHC trc thuoc 1. Cac huyen 2. Cac xa 3. Cac khu CN 4. Khu kinh te ...... TC phi chnh phu 1. UBMTTQ 2. Hoi phu n 3. Hoi nong dan ......

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3. Hieu qua phng an Phng an hien trang

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Cac ben lien quan:

Cac nganh SD PHNG AN 1. Quan ly o th 2. Nong nghiep 3. Giao duc 4. Y te 5. Cong nghiep 6. C s ha tang ......

Phng an th nhat

Phng an th hai

...

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1. Khai quat qua trnh la chon 1. Hieu qua kinh te

1.1. Chenh lech li nhuan thu c t at 1.2. Chenh lech gia at 1.3. Chenh lech thu chi ngan sach t at 2.1. Bnh quan dien tch at/lao ong 2.2. Mc o giai quyet viec lam 2.3. Dien tch at danh cho CTCC 2.4. An ninh lng thc 2.5. Mc o cai thien thu nhap 3.1. o che phu at 3.2. Dien tch at danh cho x ly moi trng 3.3. Cac tac ong cua thay oi c cau SD (ESI)

20

anh gia hieu qua KT - XH MT

2. Hieu qua xa hoi

P
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3. Hieu qua moi trng

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3. Hieu qua phng an

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua kinh te a. Chenh lech li nhuan thu c t at b. Chenh lech gia at c. Chenh lech thu chi ngan sach t at

22

Hieu qua kinh te

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT a. Chenh lech li nhuan t at

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 1:

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Thng ap dung anh gia hieu qua kinh te cua phng an QHSD nong nghiep Chenh lech li nhuan = Dien tch chenh lech x Li nhuan tren hecta

U tch cac loai at nong nghiep (ha)nh sau: P

l a n n i n g TT Loai at HT 2005 5.800 4.000 400 1.400 PA1 4.800 600 1.200 3.000

Ket qua xay dng 2 PA QHSD xa A cho dien

QH 2010 PA2 4.600 100 1.100 3.400

at nong nghiep 1 2 3 Cay hang nam Cay lau nam Nuoi thuy san

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT b. Chenh lech gia at

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V du 1: Ket qua ieu tra hieu qua s dung at tai xa:

TT 1 2 3 Loai at Cay hang nam Cay lau nam Nuoi thuy san Li nhuan (trieu /ha/nam) 15 40 55

Yeu cau: Tnh hieu qua kinh te cua 2 phng an

- Moi loai at co gia tr khac nhau. - Tong dien tch at cua mot a phng la co nh, Phng an thc chat la s chu chuyen gia cac loai at vi nhau. - Qua trnh chu chuyen lam phat sinh s chenh lech ve dien tch cac loai at s chenh lech gia at so vi hien trang. Phan chenh lech nay co the xem nh la hieu qua kinh te do phng an o mang lai.

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT b. Chenh lech gia tr s dung

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 2:

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Gia at phan anh kha nang sinh li cua at. Chenh lech gia at Dien tch chenh lech

U dien tch cac loai at (ha) nh sau: P

l a n n i n g TT Loai at HT 2005 7.700 5.800 500 1.400

Ket qua xay dng 2 phng an QHSD xa A cho

QH 2010 PA1 7.700 4.800 1.100 1.800 PA2 7.700 4.600 1.200 1.900

Gia at

Tong dien tch 1 2 3 at nong nghiep at at chuyen dung

e thong nhat va co tnh phap ly, thng se lay gia at la gia theo khung gia cua Nha nc

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 2:

TT 1 2 3

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT c. Thu chi ngan sach ay la cach thng c s dung e phac tnh hieu Thu ngan sach Thu 1 lan - Tien SD (giao) - Tien thue at - Tien chuyen muc ch - Le ph trc ba (1%) Thu hang nam - Thue nha at (0,2%)

Theo khung gia at cua a phng:

Gia at (nghn ong/m2) 45 1.500 1.125

Loai at at nong nghiep at at chuyen dung (75% gia at )

U qua kinh te cac phng an: P

l a n n i n g

Yeu cau: Tnh hieu qua kinh te cua 2 phng an

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT c. Thu chi ngan sach Chi ngan sach Boi thng at Boi thng tai san tren at Ho tr

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 3: Ket qua xay dng 2 phng an QHSD xa A cho dien tch cac loai at (ha) nh v du 2: Biet rang: - Toan bo dien tch at tang la do chuyen t at nong nghiep sang (ho gia nh). - Toan bo dien tch at chuyen dung do Nha nc quan ly.

Can c Ngh nh 197/2004/N-CP

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 3: Chi ph boi thng, ho tr: - Phng an 1 la 2.000 ty ong - Phng an 2 la 2.500 ty ong Yeu cau: Phac tnh hieu qua kinh te cua cac phng an?

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 3: (ap an) Tnh thue nha at: - Dien tch at tang them ca thi ky la a (ha)

P - So nam n

l - Ta gia nh moi nam dien tch tang them la a/n a Thue nha at thu c se la: n n LT = (1+...+n)/n*LTa i n Vi LT la thue nha at phai ong cho dien tch a a g

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua KT V du 3: (ap an)

Hang muc DT at NN chuyen sang at 1. Thu ngan sach (ty ong) - Tien chuyen muc ch - Le ph trc ba - Thue nha at 2. Chi ngan sach 3. Can oi thu chi Trung bnh/nam PA1 600 8874 8730 90 54 2000 6874 1374.8 PA2 700 10353 10185 105 63 2500 7853 1570.6

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3. Hieu qua phng an

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Hieu qua xa hoi

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua xa hoi

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Cac ch tieu anh gia - Bnh quan dien tch at/lao ong - Mc o thu hut lao ong - Mc o giai quyet viec lam - Dien tch at danh cho CTCC - An ninh lng thc - Mc o cai thien thu nhap

38

anh gia mc o cong bang trong phan bo nguon lc at ai cua phng an QHSD 1. Cong bang trong phan bo dien tch at 2. Cong bang trong phan bo li ch t at 3. Cong bang trong phan bo lao ong xa hoi

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Bnh quan dien tch at/lao ong

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Mc o thu hut lao ong Theo xu the nh sau:
Mc o thu hut lao ong Cao - Cong nghiep Trung bnh - SX Nong nghiep - Thuy san - Dch vu

40

- Lao ong tren cac khu vc kinh te d bao - Dien tch at theo phng an QH Tnh c
- Bnh quan dien tch at SX nong nghiep - Bnh quan dien tch at - Bnh quan dien tch at cong nghiep - Bnh quan dien tch at lam nghiep - Bnh quan dien tch at NTS...

Thap - Lam nghiep

anh gia = %dien tch cac loai

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Kha nang giai quyet viec lam
STT 1 2 3 4 5 Loai hnh SD SX nong nghiep Lam nghiep Thuy san Cong nghiep Dch vu nh mc L (L/ha) 3-5 0,5 - 2 3-5 20 - 50 5 - 10

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Dien tch at danh cho CTCC - Tong dien tch, ty le at CTCC - Bnh quan at CTCC/ngi + Bo TNMT: 2-8m2/ngi

42

Thng s dung 4 1 4 30 10

so nh mc

Ty le that nghiep??? Lao ong mat viec / lao ong co viec lam

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH An ninh lng thc - Dien tch at trong lng thc tai cho - Bnh quan san lng lng thc/ngi + nh mc: 250 kg/ngi/nam

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH Cai thien thu nhap - Tong thu nhap t at NN / dan so NN - Tong gia tr s dung at/dan so - GDP bnh quan au ngi

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH V du 3

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2010 3.900 2.700
1.200 1.000 500 a n d s e

3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH V du 3 Dien tch cac loai at theo 2 phng an: Loai at 2005 380 330 15 2 20 13 2010 PA 1 380 272 35 3 50 20

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U Ket qua d bao dan so va lao ong xa A: P

l a n n i n g

Hang muc Dan so Lao ong

- SX NN - Cong nghiep - Dch vu

2005 3.000 2.000

1.300 500 200

PA2 380 245 50 5 55 25

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l a n n i n g

SXNN (LUC) Cong nghiep CTCC Dch vu at

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua XH V du 3 San lng lng thc: - Hien tai: 2 tan/ha - Tng lai: 3,6 tan/ha

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3. Hieu qua phng an

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Hieu qua Moi trng

Yeu cau: anh gia hieu qua xa hoi cua cac PA

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3. Hieu qua phng an

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua Moi trng

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Hieu qua Moi trng

Tnh ben vng ve moi trng cua phng an: - o che phu at - Dien tch at danh cho x ly moi trng - Cac tac ong moi trng cua qua trnh thay oi c cau s dung at - Ch so ESI

P Theo Q 154/2004/TTg: Phat trien ben vng la

l a n n i n g

con ng tat yeu cua Viet Nam

Ket hp s dung at va bao ve moi trng

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT o che phu rng LR(%) = Sr + Sln Stn * 100

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT Dien tch cac cong trnh x ly moi trng - Dien tch va ty le thu gom chat thai ran - Cac cong trnh x ly nc thai, kh thai

52

o che phu cay xanh o th Ct + Cp + Cv LC(%) = Sdt Ch so gia tang o phu LR = LRt LR0

* 100

- Dien tch kenh rach va kha nang thoat nc

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT c tnh ty le thu gom chat thai ran

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT V du 4 Cho dan so d kien th tran A la: 2005: 20.000 ngi 2010: 29.000 ngi

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- Trung bnh 1 ngi thai ra 0,9 kg/ngay em - Chieu cao cua bai chon lap la 30m - The tch rac: 900kg rac/m3 - Tuoi tho cua bai chon lap la 20-50 nam

Cac gia nh: 1. Bai rac cu en 2006 se ong ca. 2. Bai rac mi d kien s dung trong 20 nam

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT V du 4 C cau s dung at:

STT Loai at HT 2005 920.3 150 500 0.3 270

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3. Hieu qua phng an Hieu qua MT V du 4 Yeu cau: 1. Tnh o che phu cac phng an?

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Tong dien tch 1 Cay lau nam 2 Lam nghiep 3 at bai rac 4 Khac

QH 2010 PA1 PA2 920.3 920.3 100 120 579.8 450 0.5 0.3 240 350

2. Ty le rac toi a co the thu gom nam 2010?

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Nguyen Trng Ngan

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Noi dung Khai quat ve ESI ESIVN Xac nh ESIVN cho TNMT at Bai tap ap dung

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Ch so
Ben vng Moi trng ng
(ESI)

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

CH SO (Index) CHU E (Component) CH TH (Indicator) THONG SO (Parameter/ Variable)

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Khai quat ve ESI

ESIVN Xac nh ESIVN cho TNMT at Bai tap ap dung

Gia tr tch hp, c tnh toan t cac chu e, anh gia s bien oi ve TN va MT Mot nhom cac ch th nham anh gia s bien oi mot thanh phan cua MT, TN Gia tr anh gia s bien oi ve TN, MT c tnh toan t cac thong so, bien so Cac so o ac, tnh toan, mo phong t thc te ve TN va MT. La c s e tnh toan ra cac ch th, chu e va ch so

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

62

Nam 1995, lan au tien Hoi ong PTBV LHQ (UN/CSD) e xuat ch so ben vng 5 chu e, 13 ch th, 19 bien so

Nam 2000, UN/CSD cong bo bao cao ve ESI cua cac quoc gia tren the gii 5 chu e, 21 ch th, 76 bien so

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

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1. Khai quat ve ESI 5 chu e chnh cua ESI bao gom: 1. Cac he thong moi trng 2. Mc o giam ap lc moi trng 3. Mc o giam rui ro cho con ngi 4. Nang lc the che xa hoi

64

im ESI 5 ch c tnh ton cc gi tr ch th tch hp

5 ch im ESI bng gi tr trung bnh khng trng s ca 21 ch th ny

21 ch th

76 bin s

5. Giai quyet cac van e moi trng toan cau

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

Tn ch Stt Tn ch th mi trng Cht lng khng kh Stt
1

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

18 6 Gim nhim khng kh 19 20 21 22 7 Gim sc p ln HST Gim p lc dn s Gim sc p tiu th v x thi Gim sc p ln ngun nc 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Mc tiu th than /din tch t c tr

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Bin s
Nng NO2 o ti th Nng SO2 o ti th Nng TSP o ti th Mc nhim khng kh trong nh do s dng nhin liu rn T l din tch quc gia nm trong vng sinh thi b e da nguy him T l cc loi chim b e do T l cc loi ng vt c v T l cc loi ng vt lng c b e do Ch s a dng sinh hc quc gia T l phn trm tng din tch t chu tc ng rt yu ca con ngi T l phn trm tng din tch t chu tc ng rt mnh ca con ngi Nng oxy ha tan dn in Nng phospho Cht rn l lng Lng nc ngt sn c/u ngi Lng nc ngm ni a sn c/u ngi

Lng pht thi NOx do hat ng con ngi /din tch t c tr Lng pht thi SO2 do hat ng con ngi/din tch t c tr Lng pht thi VOC do hat ng con ngi/din tch t c tr S xe c ang s dng/din tch t c tr Tc thay i che ph rng trung bnh hng nm t 1990-2000 Mc axt ho do sa lng S t hat ng ca con ngi vt TC T l phn trm thay i dn s d bo trong thi k 2004-2050 Tc sinh tng cng Du vt sinh thi/u ngi(*) Tc ti s dng cht thi Tc pht sinh cht thi nguy hi Pht thi nc thi CN nhim cht hu c /lng nc ngt sn c Lng phn bn ho hc s dng/ hecta t hoa mu Lng thuc BVTV s dng/hecta t hoa mu T l phn trm quc gia b sc p gay gt v cp nc nh bt c vt qu nng sut T l % tng din tch rng c cng nhn l qun l bn vng iu tra ca Din n kinh t th gii v mc tr cp T l % din tch t b nhim mn do thy li/tng S t hoa mu Cc tr cp v nng nghip

2 3 4 5

2 Cc h thng MT

a dng sinh hc

6 7 8 9

Mc gim p lc MT

t Cht lng nc Tr lng nc

10 11 12

10

13 14 15

11

16 17

Qun l ti nguyn thin nhin

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

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1. Khai quat ve ESI

46 47 48 49 50

68

12

S lnh 39 T l t vong do bnh ly nhim ng rut mnh ca 40 T l tr em t vong do cc bnh h hp mi 41 T l tr em di 5 tui t vong/1.000 tr em s sinh trng Ngun T l phm trm dn s c tip cn ngun nc sch mi sng c bn ca 43 nng cp con ngi Gim ri S ngi cht trung bnh do l lt, lc xoy, hn hn/triu 44 ro mi ngi trng v Ch s tip xc i vi cc mi nguy hi v mi trng thit hi 45 do thin tai 42 T l phn trm s ngi suy dinh dng/tng dn s

15

Qun l mi trng

51 52 53 54 55 56 57

T l ca gi xng so vi gi trung bnh ca th gii nh gi mc tham nhng Hiu lc ca Chnh ph T l phn trm tng din tch t c bo v Kho st ca Din dn kinh t th gii v qun tr mi trng Cc quy nh cu Php lut Cc sng kin Agenda 21 a phng/1 triu ngi dn Quyn t do chnh tr v cng dn T l phn trm cc bin s cn thiu S lng t chc thnh vin trong Hip hi Bo tn TN TG/triu ngi dn Pht minh tri thc v khoa hc, cng ngh v chnh sch mi trng nh gi mc dn ch Hiu qu nng lng T l phn trm nng lng thy in v ti to/tng nng lng tiu th Ch s bn vng ao Jn Gi tr i mi sinh thi trung bnh tnh trn cc CT c VP ti mi quc gia S lng cc cng ty ng dng ISO 14001/t la GDP (PPP) Kho st ca Din n kinh t TG v ci tin MT trong khu vc t nhn Mc tham gia vo cc Chng trnh Hip hi cc Nh my SX ho cht Ch th i mi cng ngh Ch th truy cp thng tin T l hon thnh chng trnh ph cp gio dc s cp cho n gii T l huy ng tr em n lp c 3 cp hc S nh nghin cu/triu dn

Mc gim ri ro cho con ngi

13

Nng lc th ch v x hi

16

Hiu qu sinh thi Phn ng ca khu vc t nhn

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65

17

14

18

Khoa hc v cng ngh

66 67 68 69

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

1. Khai quat ve ESI

69

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

1. Khai quat ve ESI

70

19 Qun l MT ton cu

Mc tham gia vo n lc hp tc quc t Mc pht thi kh thi nh knh Gim p lc mi trng ton cu

70 71 72 73 74 75 76

S lng cc thnh vin tham gia vo cc t chc mi trng a quc gia Mc ng gp vo Qu cc d n mi trng v vin tr pht trin song phng hay a phng Mc tham gia vo cc cam kt quc t v mi trng Mc pht thi kh thi cacbon/triu la GDP Mc pht thi kh thi cacbon/u ngi

20

T nam 2000 en 2005, UN/CSD eu cong bo bao cao anh gia ESI cua cac nc va th t sap xep.

Mc xut khu kh SO2 T l phn trm hng ho v nguyn liu th nhim nhp khu/tng khi lng hng ha v dch v nhp khu

21

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

1. Khai quat ve ESI

Xp hng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tn nc Malaixia Mianma Lo Cmpuchia Thi Lan Indonexia Philippin Vit Nam

71

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

72

im ESI 54,0 52,8 52,4 50,1 49,7 48,8 42,3 42,3

Khai quat ve ESI

ESIVN
Xac nh ESIVN cho TNMT at Bai tap ap dung

Vit Nam ng th 127/146 nc

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN

73

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN

74

Bo ch th, ch so PTBV ve TN MT a c cac nha khoa hoc va quan ly MT quan tam nghien cu trong khoang 10 nam tr lai ay.

Nam 1998, Cuc Moi trng ban hanh th nghiem bo ch th gom 44 ch th, trong o: - Moi trng at: 7 ch th; - Nc tren luc a: 5 ch th; - Nc bien: 4 ch th; - Khong kh: 6 ch th; - Chat thai ran: 3 ch th; - a dang sinh hoc: 11 ch th - S co moi trng: 8 ch th.

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN

75

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN

76

Ngoai ra, lnh vc quan ly MT cung e xuat bo ch th gom 16 ch th. D an Agenda 21 cua Viet Nam c trien khai tai Bo KH&T a e xuat Bo ch th PTBV ve tai nguyen va moi trng gom 11 ch th.

Nam 2003 Hoi Lien hiep cac Hoi KHKT Viet Nam e xuat Bo ch th PTBV ve tai nguyen va moi trng gom 17 ch th, va Bo ch th rut gon gom 10 ch th. Vien Moi trng va PTBV e xuat Bo ch th ve moi trng gom 09 ch th; D an VIE/01/21 e xuat 05 ch th Vien NC chien lc PTBV e xuat Bo 12 ch th cap quoc gia va 7 ch th cap a phng.

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN

77

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN Ve PTBV tai nguyen

im ESIVN 7 ch chnh c tnh ton cc gi tr ch th tch hp

78

Nam 2007, e am bao thong nhat bo ch th va tnh toan ch so ESI cho Viet Nam, Van phong PTBV e xuat ch so ESIVN

7 ch im ESIVN bng gi tr tnh ton trung bnh ca 12 ch th ny

12 ch th

24 bin s

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

2. ESIVN Ve PTBV Moi trng

im ESIVN 6 ch chnh c tnh ton cc gi tr ch th tch hp

79

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s e a n d

2. ESIVN Ve PTBV TNMT

im ESIVN 13 ch chnh c tnh ton cc gi tr ch th tch hp

80

6 ch im ESIVN bng gi tr tnh ton trung bnh ca 15 ch th ny

13 ch im ESIVN bng gi tr tnh ton trung bnh ca 27 ch th ny

15 ch th

26 bin s

l a n n i n g

27 ch th

50 bin s

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

81

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

3. ESIVN cho MT at
Ch (EIC)

82

Khai quat ve ESI ESIVN

ESIVN cho TNMT at

Bai tap ap dung

Cc ch th Cc bin s ti nguyn d kin (EIs) (EVs) 1. Din tch t trng trt/u 1. Hiu qu ngi s dng t 2. Din tch t cha s dng/u ngi 1. Ti nguyn t 2. Nng lc 3. Din tch t phi nng nghip/u ngi. s dng bn vng ti nguyn t

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

3. ESIVN cho MT at

83

L
a n d s e

3. Hieu qua phng an Tnh kha thi

84

Ch (EIC) 1. Vn thoi ho t

Cc ch th Cc bin s ti nguyn d kin (EIs) (EVs) 1. Nguy c thoi ho t 1. T l din tch t b sa mc ha (%) 2. Lng thuc BVTV s dng/hecta t hoa mu 3. Lng phn bn ho hc s dng/ hecta t hoa mu

U - Phu hp vi nh hng phat trien P - Kha nang thu hoi boi thng
l a n n i n g

- Co kha nang chuyen oi muc ch s dung - Mc o phu hp vi phong tuc, tap quan SD

L
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l a n n i n g s e a n d

85

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a n d s e

4. La chon phng an

86

La chon phng an QHSD bang phng phap chuyen gia (a phng ra quyet nh) T van ho tr a phng ra quyet nh
Can e xuat la chon phng an

La chon phng an

P
l a n n i n g

Hieu qua phng an co qua nhieu tieu ch

Can mot ch so tong hp e de quyet nh

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Xay dng ch so tong hp He thong cac tieu ch Mc o u tien

Bang nhau

87

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Phng phap phng an toi u V du 1: ket qua tnh toan hieu qua 2 PA:
Phng an PA 1 PA 2 PA toi u Thu chi NS That nghiep (%) (ty /nam) 1.200 10,1 900 8 1.200 8

88

Khong bang

o che phu (%) 77 78 78

PP phng an toi u

PP AHP
(Analytic Hierarchy Process )

Ch so tong hp

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Phng phap phng an toi u Chuyen cac tieu ch ve he so 1 (hoac %)
Phng an PA 1 PA 2 PA toi u Ngan sach 1 0,75 1 That nghiep 0,79 1 1 o che phu 0,99 1 1

89

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U
a n d s e

4. La chon phng an

90

Phng phap AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process ) Do Thomas L. Saaty e xuat nam 1970 Phng phap van dung toan hoc va tam ly en nay ngay cang c ng dung rong rai tren the gii va trong rat nhieu lnh vc.

Tong cong 2,78 2,75 3,00

P
l a n n i n g

Chon phng an 1

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an

91

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U
a n d s e

4. La chon phng an
Phng an Alternative Tieu ch cap 1 Criterion 1 Tieu ch cap 2 Criterion 2 Muc tieu Goal

92

PA 2

PA 1

Phng phap AHP

P
l a n n i n g

HQ KT

HQ XH

HQ MT

Chon PA

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4. La chon phng an V du 2:

93

L
U
a n d s e

4. La chon phng an V du 2:
PA 1 Ngan sach That nghiep PA 2

94

Lay lai v du 1 e minh hoa cho phng phap

P
l a n n i n g

o che phu

La chon phng an

Trong so 2 phng an vi tng tieu ch Trong so gia cac tieu ch vi nhau

L
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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Bc 2: Xac nh mc o u tien Thang phan cap mc o u tien:

1 3 5 7 9 2 tieu ch nay quan trong nh nh nhau

95

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2:

96

Tieu ch nay quan trong hn tieu ch kia mot chut Tieu ch nay quan trong hn tieu ch kia Tieu ch nay quan trong hn tieu ch kia rat nhieu Tieu ch nay cc k quan trong hn tieu ch kia

Gia nh cac tieu ch trong v du 1 co cac mc o u tien:

- Ngan sach quan trong hn o che phu 3 lan - o che phu quan trong hn that nghiep 2 lan - Ngan sach quan trong hn that nghiep 5 lan

2,4,6,8 la cac mc iem trung gian cua cac mc iem 1, 3, 5, 7, 9.

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4. La chon phng an Bc 3: Ma tran so sanh oi:

97

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2:
Ngan sach Ngan sach That nghiep o phu 1 0,2 0,3 That nghiep 5 1 2

98

Tieu ch 1 Tieu ch 2 Tieu ch 3 Tieu ch 1 Tieu ch 2 Tieu ch 3

o phu 3 0,5 1

1 1/a12 1/a13

a12 1 1/a23

a13 a23 1

aij: Mc o u tien cua tieu ch i so vi tieu ch j

- Ngan sach quan trong hn o che phu 3 lan - o che phu quan trong hn that nghiep 2 lan - Ngan sach quan trong hn that nghiep 5 lan

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Bc 4: Tnh toan cac trong so:

1. Trong so gia cac tieu ch

99

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a n d s e

4. La chon phng an V du 2:
Ngan sach Ngan sach That nghiep o phu Tong 1 0,2 0,3 1,5 That nghiep 5 1 2 8

100

o phu 3 0,5 1 4,5

2. Trong so cac tieu ch trong moi PA

P
l a n n i n g

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2:
Ngan sach Ngan sach That nghiep o phu 0,667 0,133 0,200 That o phu nghiep 0,625 0,125 0,250 0,667 0,111 0,222

101

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2:
P an PA 1 PA 2 Tong P an PA 1 PA 2 Thu chi NS That nghiep 1 0,79 0,75 1 1,75 1,79

102

TB cong 0,653 0,123 0,224 1,000

o che phu 0,99 1 1,99 o che phu 0,50 0,50 1,00

Thu chi NS That nghiep 0,57 0,44 0,43 0,56 1,00 1,00

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2
PA 1 PA 2

103

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Bc 5: anh gia tng quan S dung ch so tng quan phu hp RC RC = IC = IC CI max -n n-1

104

(0,57 (0,43

0,44 0,56

0,50) 0,50)

IC: ch so thch hp CI: ch so thch hp ngau nhien max: Gia tr rieng cua ma tran so sanh oi

0,653 0,123 0,224

Yeu cau: RC 10%

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4. La chon phng an Bc 5: anh gia tng quan

105

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s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2
Ngan sach 1 0,2 0,3 1,5 That o phu nghiep 5 3 1 0,5 2 8 1 4,5

106

max = (1ai1 + 2ai2 + + nain) i: Cac trong so tng ng

Cap ma tran

1 0

10 1,49

CI

0 0,58 0,90 1,12 1,24 1,32 1,41 1,45

l a n n i n g

Ngan sach That nghiep o phu Tong

Trong so 0,653 0,123 0,224

max = (1,5*0,653+8*0,123+4,5*0,224) = 2,9715

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an V du 2 IC = max -n n-1 IC =

107

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Bc 6: Tnh cac ch so tong hp V du 2

PA 1 PA 2

108

|2,9715 -3|
3-1

IC = 0,01425 CI (n=3) = 0,58 RC = IC CI =

(0,57 (0,43

0,44 0,56

0,50) 0,50)

0,653 0,123 0,224

2,46 %

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

4. La chon phng an Bc 6: Tnh cac ch so tong hp V du 2

PA1 PA2 = 0,57*0,653 + 0,44*0,123 + 0,50*0,224 = 0,43*0,653 + 0,56*0,123 + 0,50*0,224

109

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4. La chon phng an Bai tap ap dung

110

Ket qua tnh toan hieu qua cua 2 phng an:

P an Thu chi NS (ty /nam) That nghiep (%) (TC1) (TC2) 800 12 600 7 Lng thc at bai bnh quan rac (ha) (kg/ng/nam) (TC3) (TC4) 210 5 280 3

= 0,538 = 0,462

P
l a n n i n g PA 1 PA 2

Phng an chon: Phng an 1

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4. La chon phng an

111

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l a n n i n g s e a n d

112

Bai tap ap dung Cau 1: Gia nh cac tieu ch co mc o quan trong nh nhau Cau 2: Gia nh mc o quan trong: TC1 gap 7 TC2 TC1 gap 5 TC3 TC1 gap 3 TC4 TC2 gap 2 TC3 TC2 gap 3 TC4 TC3 gap 2 TC4

Het chng

Hay ly luan e chon phng an???