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T GI HI OI THC
V CN CN THNG MI CA VIT NAM
60.31.12
LI CM N
hon thnh c lun vn ny, ti nhn c rt nhiu s gip t
thy c v bn b. u tin, ti xin chn thnh gi li cm n n c Ngc Trang,
ngi rt tn tnh gp , cung cp nhiu ti liu tham kho, ng vin ti trong
sut qu trnh hng dn ti lm lun vn.
Ti cng ht sc bit n em Khang, Duy, Qu, anh Tun, thy Huy
Hong, nhng ngi ht lng ng vin gp v cung cp mt s ti liu b
ch gip ti hon thnh lun vn. Ti c bit cm n em Khang ht sc nhit
tnh gip ti hon thin vic x l s liu thng k, ng gp rt nhiu kin cho
lun vn v cng xin cm n v nhng li ng vin ca em.
Cui cng, cho ti xin gi li cm n n tt c cc thy c tn tnh
truyn t nhng kin thc nn tng trong ba nm ti theo hc cao hc. Lu lm ri
con (em) mi c dp by t lng bit n ca mnh n nhng ngi thn trong gia
nh: ng b, cha m, cc anh em nhng ngi dnh nhng iu kin tt nht
gip con (em) c th hon thnh lun vn ny.
LI CAM OAN
Ti xin c li cam oan danh d rng y l cng trnh nghin cu ca ti
vi s gip ca c hng dn v nhng ngi m ti cm n; s liu thng k
l trung thc v ni dung, kt qu nghin cu ca lun vn ny cha tng c
cng b trong bt c cng trnh no cho ti thi im hin nay.
TP.HCM, ngy 30 thng 07 nm 2009
Tc gi
MC LC
M U
........................................................................................................................... 1
DANH MC HNH V
Hnh 1.1: Can thip ca ngn hng trung ng nhm ko gim t gi (nng ng
ni t) khi cu ngoi t tng) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11
Hnh 1.2: Hiu ng ng cong J ----------------------------------------------------------- 18
Hnh 2.1: th t gi thc song phng cc ng tin so vi USD ------------------ 22
Hnh 2.2: th t gi thc a phng gia on 1999-2008 --------------------------- 27
Hnh 2.3: th biu din t gi thc a phng v t s xut nhp khu giai on
1999 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28
Hnh 2.4: T gi thc a phng gia on 2000-2008------------------------------------ 30
Hnh 2.5: th biu din tc ng ca t gi i vi xut khu ----------------------- 33
Hnh 2.6: th biu din tc ng ca t gi i vi nhp khu ---------------------- 33
Hnh 2.7: th biu din t gi danh ngha VND/USD t nm 1999 n 2010----- 43
Hnh 3: th biu din ng i ca t gi BQLNH v t gi do NHTM cng b
t qu 1 nm 1999 n qu 4 nm 2008 (t gi VND/USD) ---------------------------- 47
DANH MC BNG
Bng 1.1 T gi bnh qun lin ngn hng v t gi bn ca NHTM------------------- 87
Bng 1.2 Ch s GDP theo qu t qu 1 nm 2000 n qu 4 nm 2008----------- 88
Bng 1.3 Xut nhp khu v t gi theo qu ----------------------------------------------- 89
Bng 1.4 T gi thc a phng theo qu, k gc 1999, lm pht Vit Nam v lm
pht trung bnh ca cc nc v vng lnh th c tham gia r tin--------------------- 90
Bng 2.1 T gi thc song phng ca ni t so vi USD------------------------------- 92
Bng 2.2 Bng xp hng mc nh gi cao ca cc ng tin trong r tin ----- 92
Bng 2.3a Kt qu tnh t gi thc a phng k gc nm 1999 ----------------------- 93
Bng 2.3b Kt qu tnh t gi thc a phng k gc nm 2000 ----------------------- 98
Bng 2.3c Kt qu tnh t gi thc a phng k gc qu 1 nm 1999---------------101
Bng 2.3d Kt qu tnh t gi thc a phng k gc qu 1 nm 2000---------------116
Bng 2.4 Kt qu hi quy xut khu theo t gi ------------------------------------------125
M U
1. Vn nghin cu
Mc t gi hin nay c ph hp i vi nn kinh t Vit Nam hay cha?
Mc tiu no m chnh sch t gi cn phi t c: m bo kh nng cnh tranh
ca hng ha hay cung cp mt mi trng n nh pht trin? Xung quanh cc
vn trn c nhiu quan im rt khc nhau. Ngoi ra, cch thc m ngn hng
nh nc (NHNN) can thip vo qu trnh hnh thnh v vn ng ca t gi cng
l mt ti gy tranh ci. C kin cho rng NHNN cn phi ph gi mnh tin
ng so vi mc t gi hin ti nng cao kh nng cnh ca hng ha xut khu
v xut th ni hon ton t gi th trng t nh ot mc t gi ph hp.
Tuy nhin cng c kin ngc li, l chnh sch t gi cn phi n nh (tc t
gi s c nh hn) n nh kinh t v m, n nh gi c v kim ch lm pht.
nh gi mc ph hp i vi nn kinh t ca mc t gi hin nay cn
phi c mt c s khoa hc so snh n. Theo , NHNN nn xc nh mc t gi
mc tiu cho nn kinh t. mc t gi ny c th gii quyt mt s vn nh kh
nng cnh tranh ca hng ha hay n nh mi trng v m hay mt s mc tiu
khc ca chnh ph. T gi thc, nht l t gi thc a phng do c iu chnh
theo chnh lch lm pht ca Vit Nam vi cc i tc nn n c th l mt mc t
gi mc tiu thch hp NHNN tin hnh nh gi mc ph hp ca mc t
gi hin ti phc v cho mt vi mc tiu ni trn, nht l mc tiu m bo
kh nng cnh tranh cho hng ha.
Hin ti, c mt s m hnh xc nh t gi mc tiu nh m hnh ca nh
kinh t Sebastian Edwards (1988) c lng t gi thc cn bng di hn; m hnh
kinh t v m m, theo m hnh ny cc khu vc kinh t, th trng ti chnh, th
trng tin t v cc chnh sch kinh t v m c lin kt li trong mt tng th
nhm nh gi tc ng ca cc chnh sch i vi nn kinh t, n cng cho php
nh gi nhng tc ng ca chnh sch t gi i vi cn cn vng lai, cn cn
vn; m hnh cn bng i ni v cn bng i ngoi; m hnh t gi thc cho php
nh gi kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ha
NEERi =
eij.wj
J=1
1.1.3 T gi hi oi thc
T gi hi oi thc l t gi danh ngha c iu chnh bi tng quan
gi c trong nc v ngoi nc. Khi t gi danh ngha tng hay gim khng nht
thit phi ng ngha vi s gia tng hay gim sc cnh tranh thng mi quc t.
Nh vy, t gi hi oi thc l mt phm tr kinh t c th v vic phn tch t
gi hi oi thc s l mt vn cn c quan tm.
1.1.3.1 T gi thc song phng (RER) l t gi danh ngha 1 c iu chnh
theo mc chnh lch lm pht gia hai nc, n l ch s th hin sc mua ca ng
ni t so vi ng ngoi t. V th c th xem t gi thc l thc o sc cnh tranh
trong mu dch quc t ca mt quc gia so vi mt quc gia khc.
+ T gi thc song phng trng thi tnh
T gi thc song phng c xt ti mt thi im. Ta c cng thc tnh
nh sau:
Er =
E. Pf
E
Ph /Pf
Ph
Trong :
E: T gi danh ngha tnh bng s n v ni t trn mt n v ngoi t.
Ph: Mc gi trong nc.
Pf: Mc gi nc ngoi.
Trong cng thc trn, t s l gi c hng ha c quy v ng ni t v
em chia cho mu s l gi hng ha trong nc (cng c tnh bng ni t). V
th t gi thc l mt ch s so snh mc gi nc ngoi so vi mc gi trong nc.
- Nu Er = 1, ta ni rng ng tin trong nc v ng ngoi t c ngang gi
sc mua.
1
C hai phng php nim yt t gi - phng php yt gi gin tip: ngoi t l ng tin yt gi, ni t l ng
tin nh gi; phng php yt gi trc tip: ni t l ng tin yt gi, ngoi t l ng tin nh gi. Trong sut
lun vn ny, tc gi s dng phng php yt gi trc tip tnh ton.
e 0r =
e0
CPI0ft
CPI0ht
100%
Trong :
- et0 = Et/E0 l ch s t gi danh ngha thi im t so vi thi im 0.
- et0r = Ert/ Er0 l ch s t gi thc thi im t so vi thi im 0.
- CPI0ft l ch s gi nc ngoi thi im t.
- CPI0ht l ch s gi trong nc thi im t.
1.1.3.2 Mi quan h gia t gi thc v t gi c ngang gi sc mua
T gi c ngang gi sc mua chnh l t gi thc (Er) c tr s bng 1. Do t
gi danh ngha c giao dch trn th trng ngoi hi thng lch khi ngang gi
sc mua nn t gi thc c th ln hn, nh hn 1. Lc ny ng tin c th c
nh gi thp hay cao so vi ngang gi sc mua. V vy, khi t gi danh ngha tng
hay gim khng nht thit phi ng ngha vi s gia tng hay gim sc cnh tranh
thng mi quc t, cc nh qun l nghin cu v d bo ngang gi sc mua c
gng ko t gi v vng ngang gi sc mua nhm m bo tnh cnh tranh ca nn
kinh t hay phc v cho cc mc tiu n nh kinh t v m.
Theo l thuyt, ngang gi sc mua gia hai ng tin chnh l c s hnh
thnh t gi giao dch trn th trng. Do , d bo ngang gi sc mua iu
chnh t gi sao cho trong quan h mu dch quc t khng c quc gia no b thit
khi c chch lch lm pht gia cc quc gia. Nu c ngang gi sc mua, t gi
danh ngha ca ng tin mt nc so vi tt c cc ng tin khc s bin ng
ngang vi chnh lch lm pht ca nc so vi lm pht ca cc nc khc.
Ngi ta dng ngang gi sc mua nh gi bin ng ca ng tin trong
tng lai. Gi tr mi ca t gi giao ngay ca mt ng tin no (St+1 ) s l mt
hm ca t gi giao ngay ban u (St )v chnh lch lm pht:
(1+ Ih )
St+1 = St [1+
(1+ If )
- 1]
+ Nm 2: T gi
Th (1) vo (2) ta c:
E2 = E0 x CPI1h/ CPI1f x CPI2h/ CPI2f = E0 x CPI1h CPI2h / CPI1f CPI2f
+ Nm th n t gi (theo thuyt ngang gi sc mua) s l
En =
E0
10
(Itj + Etj)
J=1
wj . CPIij
Pw =
J=1
CPIi
- T gi thc a phng:
n
REER =
eij.wj .CPIij
J=1
CPIi
11
S
S
D
D
Lng ngoi t tng
12
13
TS Trn Ngc Th v cc thnh vin (2006) Phng php tip cn c ch iu hnh t gi Vit Nam,
ti nghin cu cp b.
14
15
V cn cn thng mi l thnh phn quan trng nht trong ti khon vng lai
v xut khu rng bng chnh lch gia tit kim trong nc v u t trong nc,
nn ti khon vng lai cn c th hin bng chnh lch ny. V vy, s thng d
hay thm ht ti khon vng lai c quan h cht ch vi thm ht hay thng d cn
cn thng mi.
Ti khon vng lai thng d khi xut khu rng, hay khi tit kim nhiu hn
u t. Ngc li, ti khon vng lai thm ht khi quc gia nhp nhiu hn hay u
t nhiu hn. Khi mc thm ht ti khon vng lai ln mt quc gia s phi tm
ngun ti tr cho mc thm ht ny, c th l vay mn nc ngoi b p lm
tng thm s n rng nc ngoi. Hoc quc gia cng c th b p thm ht ti
khon vng lai bng cch s dng ca ci nc ngoi c tch ly t cc nm
trc.
Mt nc c ti khon vng lai thm ht l nc nhp khu tiu dng hin
ti v phi xut khu tiu dng trong tng lai (nc i vay s phi tr n); ngc
li quc gia c thng d ti khon vng lai l nc xut khu tiu dng hin ti v
nhp khu tiu dng trong tng lai (v th nc cho vay s thu hi n sau)
Theo cch nh gi ca IMF, nu mc thm ht ti khon vng lai ln hn
5% GDP, th quc gia b coi l c mc thm ht ti khon vng lai khng lnh
mnh.
1.2.2 Cc nhn t nh hng n cn cn thng mi
nh hng ca thu nhp quc dn (GDP)
Thu nhp thc t ( iu chnh theo lm pht) tng lm gia tng mc tiu
th hng ha. Mt s gia tng trong chi tiu hu nh phn nh mt mc cu gia tng
i vi hng ha nc ngoi. V vy, GDP tng lm nhp khu c xu hng
tng. S gia tng ca nhp khu khi GDP tng ph thuc xu hng nhp khu bin
(MPZ). MPZ l phn ca GDP tng thm m ngi dn mun chi cho nhp khu.
nh hng ca t gi hi oi
Nu cc yu t khng i, mt s gia tng trong gi tr ng ni t c th
lm cn cn thng mi xu i. ng ni t tng gi lm gi hng ha trong nc
16
17
18
Do , s lng hng xut khu trong ngn hn khng tng ln nhanh chng
v s lng hng nhp cng khng gim mnh. V vy, trong ngn hn hiu ng gi
c c tnh tri hn hiu ng s lng lm cho cn cn thng mi xu i.
Trong di hn, gi hng ni a gim kch thch sn xut trong nc v
ngi tiu dng trong nc cng thi gian tip cn v so snh cht lng hng
trong nc vi hng nhp. Mt khc, trong di hn, doanh nghip c thi gian tp
hp cc ngun lc tng khi lng sn xut. Lc ny sn lng bt u co
gin, hiu ng s lng c tnh tri hn hiu ng gi c lm cn cn thng mi
c ci thin.
ng cong J l mt ng m t hin tng cn cn vng lai b xu i
trong ngn hn v ch ci thin trong di hn. ng biu din hin tng ny
ging hnh ch J. Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Krugman (1991), ngi tm ra
hiu ng ng cong J khi phn tch cuc ph gi la M trong thi gian 1985
1987, th ban u cn cn vng lai xu i, sau khong hai nm cn cn vng lai
c ci thin.
Hnh 1.2 Hiu ng ng cong J
Cn cn vng lai
Thng d (+)
Thi gian
Thm ht (-)
Nguyn nhn xut hin ng cong J l do trong ngn hn hiu ng gi c c
tnh tri hn hiu ng s lng nn lm xu i cn cn thng mi, ngc li trong
di, hiu ng s lng c tnh tri hn hiu ng gi c lm cn cn thng mi
c ci thin.
19
20
mc gia tng s lng hng xut khu ph thuc vo s tin tng v a chung
hng ha xut khu ca ngi tiu dng nc ngoi.
1.3.2 H s co gin xut nhp khu v iu kin Marshall-Lerner
Phng php h s co gin do 2 tc gi Alfred Marshall v Abba Lerner p
dng ln u v c Joan Robinson (1973), Fritz Machlup (1955) m rng.
Phng php ny da trn mt s gi thit: Cung v cu hng ha c h s co gin
hon ho, ngha l ng vi mi mc gi nht nh th nhu cu hng ha xut nhp
khu lun lun c tha mn. Ni dung ca phng php ny ch yu phn tch
nhng tc ng ca ph gi ln cn cn vng lai.
H s co gin xut khu: th hin phn trm thay i ca xut khu khi t gi
thay i 1%
x =
dX/X
dE/E
H s co gin nhp khu: th hin phn trm thay i ca xut khu khi t
gi thay i 1%
m =
dM/M
dE/E
21
22
23
24
25
120
Thailand
Chinese Taipei
100
Republic of Korea
Japan
80
60
France
40
Australia
Germany
United States
Viet Nam
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
26
27
28
29
30
REER
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
31
60
X/M
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
32
T hnh 2.3 cho chng ta thy rng c mt lch pha gia t gi thc a
phng v ch s xut trn nhp khu: ngay nm ch s REER tng th ch s xut
khu trn nhp khu gim, sau mt khong thi gian nht nh, do tc ng ca
REER tng ch s ny mi tng. Ngc li, vo nm REER gim th ngay nm
ch s xut khu trn nhp khu khng gim tng ng m c khi cn tng. Vy c
th thy rng t gi thc a phng tng hay gim s khng c tc ng ngay ln
cn cn thng mi trong nm m n c tc dng chm hn.
C th, trong trng hp ny, hai nm sau k t lc REER tng cn cn
thng mi mi c ci thin. Nm 2002, REER tng so vi 2001 (106,55 so vi
103,18) th n 2005 t s xut khu trn nhp khu mi tng so vi nm 2002
(88,26% so vi 84,61). Tng t, nm 2003 REER t nh cao nht l 112,91,
nhng trong nm ny cn cn thanh ton vn xu i so vi nm 2002, cho n nm
2005, 2006 t s xut khu trn nhp khu mi tng ln ln lt l 88,26%, 88,72%.
Ngoi ra, cng c hin tng khi REER gim t 111,61 (nm 2004) xung 101,9
(nm 2005) th phi n nm 2007 (hai nm sau khi REER gim) ta mi thy tc
ng xu ln cn cn thng mi (t s xut khu trn nhp khu gim ch cn
77,47%).
Ngoi ra, vi nn kinh t Vit Nam, mt nc ang pht trin, nhiu mt
hng trong nc cha th sn xut c hay nu c sn xut c i chng na th
thng c cht lng thp, gi thnh cao, t l hng ha tiu chun xut khu
thp, t l nguyn vt liu u vo c ngun gc nhp khu cao lm cho khi
lng hng xut khu tng khng ng k, khi lng hng nhp khu gim chm
hn. Tt c nhng iu ny hm rng ti Vit Nam, ci gi l thi gian cn cn
thng mi b xu i trong thi gian ngn hn khi ph gi tin t (hiu ng gi c
trong l thuyt ng cong J 3) s c th ko di hn v mc thm ht cn cn
thng mi cng cao hn so vi cc nc pht trin.
Theo Krugman (1991), ngi pht hin ra ng cong J, trong giai on u ca qu trnh ph gi tin
t (ng ni t mt gi), cn cn vng lai tr nn thm ht, sau khong hai nm cn cn vng lai mi ci
thin, hay ni cch khc l khi ph gi tin t cn cn vng lai xu i trong ngn hn v c ci thin trong
di hn.
33
REER
40.00
20.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
34
trong by nm nghin cu, cn cn ch ci thin i cht khi REER tng trn 110
(hai nm sau khi REER tng). Thc t, con s REER v cn cn thng mi trong
giai on nghin cu cho thy t gi thc c nh gi thp trong hu ht thi
gian, trong khi cn cn thng mi th thm ht.
T bng tnh ton v so snh t gi thc song phng ca cc ng tin
trong r vi nhau, ta nhn thy trong hu ht thi gian nghin cu ng USD b
mt gi rt mnh vi hu ht cc ng tin tham gia trong r tin lm cho tin
ng ch b nh gi cao khong 9% so vi r tin (k gc nm 2000), hay ch
6,38% (k gc 1999) vo nm 2008.
Trong 10 nm nghin cu ch duy nht nm 2008 tin ng b nh gi cao
so vi r tin do ch s gi tiu dng ca Vit Nam nm ny tng t bin ln n
23% cao gp 3,5 ln so vi nc c ch s gi tiu dng cao nht trong 10 nc v
vng lnh th c ng tin tham gia r tin v ng hng th nm chu (ADB
Statistical appendix). Trong khong thi gian cn li t 2000 n 2007, REER ln
hn 100, tin ng lun b nh gi thp.
Lm pht tng cao trong nhng nm gn y chnh l nguyn nhn lm xi
mn kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ha Vit Nam so vi cc i tc thng mi
khc v cho n nm 2008, tin ng bt u b nh gi cao v iu ny c th lm
hng ha Vit Nam mt dn tnh cnh tranh trn thng trng th gii.
2.4 M hnh hi quy xut nhp khu theo t gi
2.4.1 Tc ng ca t gi VND/USD i vi hot ng xut khu, nhp khu
tin hnh nh gi nhng tc ng ca t gi i vi xut nhp khu,
trc tin tc gi tp hp d liu t gi USD/VND, tr gi xut khu (n v tnh l
triu USD) ly theo qu t qu 1 nm 1999 n qu 4 nm 2008. S liu chi tit
:bng 1.3 ca ph lc 1.
Theo l thuyt, xut khu (Y) c xu hng tng khi t gi tng, nn h s hi
quy s mang du dng.
M hnh hi quy c dng: y = a0 + ax
RATE: t gi (VND/USD)
EX: tr gi xut khu (triu USD)
35
(-8,13431)
4,0799*RATE (2.1)
(9,17434)
R2 = 0,688954
IM = 72434
(-7,0235)
5,2326*RATE (2.2)
(7,8139)
R2 = 0,6063
T kt qu hi quy ca m hnh (2.1) v (2.2):
C 2 m hnh c mc ngha 0%, tc m hnh c tin cy gn 100%.
R2 ca m hnh (2.1) bng 0,688954 c ngha l 68,9% s bin thin ca Y
(xut khu) c gii thch bi s ph thuc vo bin s X (t gi)
R2 ca m hnh (2.2) bng 0,6063 c ngha l 60,63% s bin thin ca nhp
khu c gii thch bi s ph thuc vo bin s t gi.
Kim nh gi thuyt v ngha cc h s hi quy
Gi thit: Ho: h s (a) = 0 (Y v X khng c quan h tuyn tnh)
H1: a # 0 (Y v X c quan h tuyn tnh)
Bc b Ho nu |t-stat| > tn-2,/2
T kt qu hi quy m hnh, ta c:
(2.1): |t-stat| = 7,813909 > tn-2,/2 = 2,3289 (n =40, mc ngha =5%).
(2.2): |t-stat| = 9,17434 > tn-2,/2 = 2,3289 (n =40, mc ngha =5%).
V vy ta bc b gi thuyt Ho, tc xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam c quan h
tuyn tnh vi t gi.
Gii thch m hnh nh sau:
-
36
Mc d kim ngch xut khu trong nhiu nm qua lin tc tng nhng cn
cn thng mi vn thm ht l v khi t gi tng xut khu v nhp khu u tng,
nhng xut khu tng t hn nhp khu.
Hnh 2.5 th biu din tc ng ca t gi i vi xut khu
Xut khu (triu USD)
20000
15000
y = 4,0799x - 55710
2
R = 0,689
10000
5000
EX
Linear (EX)
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
T gi (VND/USD)
Ngun: Asia Regional Integration Center - Ngn hng pht trin chu ADB (ti
a ch http://aric.adb.org) v Bloomberg LP.
th trn cho thy s bin ng ca xut khu v t gi c quan h ng
bin. Khi t gi tng 1 ng xut khu tng 4,115 triu USD.
y = 5,2326x - 72434
15000
R = 0,6164
IM
Linear (IM)
10000
5000
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
T gi (VND/USD)
Ngun: Asia Regional Integration Center - Ngn hng pht trin chu ADB (ti
a ch http://aric.adb.org) v Bloomberg LP
37
(-2,2374)
(2,5092)
38
(2.3b)
(2,5592)
R2 = 0,3180
S dng kim nh Wald kim tra kh nng gii thch ca m hnh gii hn
Gi thit:
H0:
2=3=0
H1:
t nht i 0
39
GDP gia tng lm tng nhu cu nhp khu trang thit b, my mc phc v cho
sn xut trong nc tng ln. iu ny cng ph hp vi l thuyt ti chnh quc t.
2.4.2.2 M hnh hi quy tc ng ca t gi thc a phng i vi xut nhp
khu
nh gi tc ng ca t gi thc a phng i vi t s xut trn nhp
khu, ta thay th t gi thc song phng bng t gi thc a phng, ch s GDP
ca nc ngoi (trong quan h song phng) bng ch s GDP trung bnh c trng
s vi trng s l t trng thng mi gia Vit Nam v cc i tc (tng t cch
tnh REER). Ring i vi m hnh hi quy c bin s t gi thc a phng, tc
gi khng ly tr tc ng ca t gi thc v ch s GDP.
M hnh hi quy c dng:
Ln(EXM)t = 0 + 1lnGDPw t + 2lnGDPvn t + 3lnREER t + t
EXM l t s xut khu trn nhp khu theo qu t qu 1 nm 2000 n qu 4 nm
2008.
GDPwt, GDPvn t l ln lt l ch s GDP trung bnh c trng s l t trng thng
mi ca cc i tc v ch s GDP ca Vit Nam thi im qu 1 nm 2000 n qu
4 nm 2008 (d liu: bng 1.2 ca ph lc 1).
RERR: ch s t gi thc a phng (d liu: bng 2.3d ca ph lc 2).
0, 1, 2, 3: cc h s hi quy.
M hnh khng c tr.
Tc gi chy m hnh vi nhiu tr khc nhau v nhn thy m hnh
khng c tr c ngha nht. Sau khi hi quy chui d liu t nm 2000 n
2008 theo qu (36 quan st), kt qu m hnh hi quy ban u t s xut khu trn
nhp khu theo ch s GDP v REER cho bi bng 2.7a.
Kt qu v m hnh hi quy nh sau:
lnEXMt = 16,5949 - 4,7631lnGDPw - 0,1095lnGDPvn + 1,0779lnREER (2.4a)
(1,0708)
R2 = 0,3132
(-2,5073)
(0,1095)
(2,5913)
40
(-2,9003)
(2,6313)
R2 = 0,3132
S dng kim nh Wald kim tra kh nng gii thch ca m hnh gii
hn:
Gi thit:
H 0:
1 = 3 =0
H 1:
t nht i 0
41
42
43
STT
Quc gia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Xin-ga-po
Thi Lan
i Loan
Hn Quc
Nht Bn
Trung Quc
c
Php
M
-xtry-li-a
Vit Nam
T gi VND/
ngoi t 2009
T gi VND/
ngoi t 2010
15.610,86
537,44
594,90
14,75
214,95
2.678,46
27.117,00
27.117,00
20.700,00
13.432,84
16.070,00
555,97
617,23
15,19
227,06
2.784,54
28.587,20
28.190,94
21.756,76
13.923,47
CPI
2009
CPI
2010
100,50
100,50
100,60
102,00
99,00
100,80
100,10
100,50
99,10
101,60
104,00
102,00
101,50
101,20
102,00
99,40
101,00
99,60
101,00
99,90
101,30
105,00
Quyn s
12,13%
6,30%
9,83%
8,91%
16,89%
20,32%
3,58%
1,81%
14,60%
5,62%
44
1,3375Pw -
0,4712Pvn
(9,0111)
(-12,3801)
(2.5)
R2 = 0,8098
Du ca h s hi quy ph hp vi l thuyt ngang gi sc mua. REER ng
bin vi lm pht bnh qun v nghch bin vi lm pht trong nc, ngha l lm
pht bnh qun ca by nc c ng tin tham gia r tin tng th REER tng, lm
pht trong nc tng REER gim.
Prob gn bng khng, m hnh c tin cy gn bng 100%.
R2 bng 0,8098: 80,98% s bin ng ca t gi thc a phng c gii
thch bi lm pht bnh qun v lm pht trong nc.
Kim nh gi thuyt v ngha cc h s hi quy
Gi thuyt: Ho: a = 0 (Y v X khng c quan h tuyn tnh)
45
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
REER
95,40
90,10
87,42
86,15
93,28
87,72
84,80
83,40
46
VND/USD
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00
6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
DB
DB
2009* 2010*
nm
47
48
49
50
TGBQLNH
Q42008
Q12008
Q22007
Q32006
Q42005
Q12005
Q22004
Q32003
Q42002
Q12002
Q22001
Q32000
Q41999
TGNHTM
Q11999
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
51
Ngun: NHNN, Ngn hng Ngoi Thng Vit Nam. D liu: xem ph lc
Trc tin, t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng v t gi do NHTM nim yt
lun chnh lch rt t th hin di bng t gi l qu hp. iu ny rt d hiu v
trong mt thi gian di bin t gi do NHNN cng b l rt nh.
Th hai, t gi do NHTM cng b lun trn theo xu hng i ln (tin
ng mt gi lin tc) ngay st pha trn t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng.
Th ba, trn th trng t do t gi USD/VND lun cao hn t gi chnh
thc, NHTM lun s dng ht bin cho php trong nim yt gi USD, xut hin
hin tng cung khng cu ngoi t, khch hng c nhu cu phi xp hng ch
mua USD, c thi im th trng khng chnh thc c gi chnh lnh n hn 500
ng/USD so vi gi nim yt ca NHTM (quan st bin ng trn th trng
khng chnh thc trong nhng thng cui nm 2008 v nhng thng u nm 2009)
to ra mt p lc tng t gi.
Nhn chung, th trng ngoi hi trong mt thi gian di xy ra hin tng
khan him ngoi t, NHTM phi thng xuyn giao dch mc trn cho php. Mc
d t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng c cng b tng nhng mc tng thp hn
so vi mc tng trn ca giao dch t gi ca NHTM, c thi k cn ng im, thm
ch gim.
T hin tng t gi gim trong hn ba thng u nm 2008
Trong nm 2008, trn th trng t gi c nhng din bin tri chiu nhau.
Hn ba thng u nm t gi VND/USD c xu hng gim, ng thi vi lm pht
th gii v trong nc ang rt cao. Tht ra tin ng tng gi so vi USD l do
ng USD nhng thng u nm 2008 mt gi mnh so vi cc ng tin ch
cht khc. Ch trong vng 4 ngy, ch s t gi trung bnh ca ng la M so
vi r cc ng tin ch cht gim ti 2,4% xung mc 73,55 im - l mc thp
cha tng c k t thi im ch s ny bt u c tnh ton vo nm 1973.
(Din bin t gi v gi vng t 25/2 n 3/3/2008, Trang tin in t NHNN Vit
Nam)
Nhng thng cui nm tnh hnh li din tin hon ton ngc li. n cui
nm 2008 t gi VND/USD tng n khong 9% so vi u nm, c ngha l tin
52
53
i ph vi tnh hnh lm pht tng qu cao v tnh trng nhp siu, chnh
ph ch yu da vo chnh sch tht cht tin t. y l hnh ng d hiu. Tuy
nhin, tng li sut lin tc mc cao k lc mi l iu ng ni. N cho thy
chnh ph khng d liu ht kh nng lm pht tng mnh trong nm 2008, dn
n u tin chnh sch thay i chm, khin cho chi ph phi tr cho lm pht qu
cao. Khi lm pht tng mnh, NHNN lin tc nng li sut c bn (n thng
6/2008 NHNN nng li sut c bn ln n 14%), li sut chit khu v ti cp
vn, nng d tr bt buc, pht hnh tri phiu ngn hng nh nc kch hot
mt cuc ua li sut gia cc ngn hng thng mi, ngun cung tn dng cho
doanh nghip b gim t ngt, hot ng sn xut kinh doanh nhanh chng ri vo
nh tr. Cc bin php ny tc ng mt cch tng i i vi lm pht do lm
gim cu, nhng lm cng thng hot ng ngn hng, lm tng chi ph vn cho
doanh nghip gp phn lm tng thm lm pht do chi ph y vn qu cao do
gi c th gii tng cao v lm gim hiu lc chnh sch m chnh ph ang thc
hin.
D rng NHNN ngn chn gim ca t gi l h tr xut khu, nhng
chng lm pht NHNN s dng chnh sch tht cht tin t, nng li sut ln
cao mt cch t ngt lm chi ph vn ca doanh nghip tng mnh ng thi sn
xut cng b nh n do kh tip cn ngun vn vay (tt nhin c c doanh nghip
xut khu) lm nh hng trc tip n vic gim li nhun ca h. C th ni
bin php no ca NHNN trong tnh hung ny cng lm gim li nhun ca doanh
nghip xut khu v khng bit ci no s tc ng xu nhiu hn ci no!
NHNN cng c ci kh, h mc kt vo th b ba bt kh thi: tung tin
ng ra mua USD c th lm tng cung tin gy thm p lc lm pht, nhng nu
khng mua vo USD th t gi tip tc gim, nh hng n chnh sch v m khc
nh gim kh nng cnh tranh hng xut khu.
Ni chung l trong lc t gi ang c xu hng gim, NHNN khng tn
dng chin thut gim t gi c gii hn, t chi s dng chnh sch t gi nh l
mt cng c kim ch lm pht (vn kim sot t gi NHNN c qu nhiu kinh
54
55
56
TS. Trn Ngc Th, Chnh sch t gi hu WTO Tp ch Pht trin kinh t, thng 9 nm 2006.
57
TS. Phan Minh Ngc, Mt cch nhn v bin ng t gi v li sut, Trang tin in t B Ti Chnh.
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
T gi cn bng trong di hn trc ht phi c iu chnh theo lm pht trong nc v quc t v cng
vi chng l cc mi quan h khc ph vi vi c th ca tng quc gia (TS. Trn Ngc Th v cc thnh
vin, 2006)
TS. Trn Ngc Th v cc thnh vin (2006) Phng php tip cn c ch iu hnh t gi, ti nghin cu
khoa hc cp b.
10
65
66
67
68
hng ha xut khu t Vit Nam ch yu l hng th cha qua ch bin, hng ha
sn xut theo dy chuyn, hng gia cng cc hng ha ny c hm lng nguyn
vt liu u vo nhp t nc ngoi rt ln (theo tng cc thng k, trong c cu
hng nhp khu c ti hn 90% l t liu sn xut), chi ph lao ng trong nc
thp (chim di 10% tng chi ph sn xut). Tnh cnh ca cc mt hng xut khu
c gi tr ln ca Vit Nam (tr du th) ging nh cu ni ca ng b ta l ang
mn u heo nu cho. Nu tin ng b lm cho mt gi, gi hng xut khu c
th r hn to li th cho hng xut khu, nhng ng thi chi ph cho nguyn vt
liu nhp khu cng tng theo. i vi doanh nghip xut khu c nguyn liu u
vo nhp khu, vic gi nguyn liu nhp tng ln lm tng gi thnh sn phm v
rt c th h phi tng gi bn ra. iu ny cho thy hiu qu rng ca vic ph gi
i vi xut khu l khng r rng. ng thi, vic tng gi hng nhp khu c th
thc y lm pht trong nc tng ln. V vy, cn ht sc thn trng khi quyt nh
ph gi mnh, bi v nh phn tch trn, khng th nh gi chnh xc hiu qu
rng ca vic ph gi, trong khi ph gi mnh c th lm tng chi ph v ri ro cho
doanh nghip trong nc. Do , ph gi mnh c khi lm cho hng ha Vit Nam
khng c li th bao nhiu trn sn khch, nhng nguy c thua ngay trn sn nh
li rt ln!
Ph gi tin ng lm gi hng nhp khu tng cao, gi hng ha trong
nc c th s tng theo gi hng ngoi. Khi gi trong nc tng cao t khi n
chu xung thang, ngay c khi gi th gii c iu chnh gim. Mt s doanh nghip
thng t nc theo ma gm hng, u c v nng gi v ti v vi ci c l t
gi tng cao! Trong thi gian qua, cc cng ty sa lin tc nng gi bn d rng gi
sa nguyn liu nhp khu gim mnh. Mt trong nhng l do c a ra tng
gi bn sa l do t gi tng! Theo mt s hip hi bo v ngi tiu dng, sa bn
l ti Vit Nam thuc loi c gi cao nht th gii, gp 2 ln so vi Thi Lan. Tt
nhin, gi cao ngt nh th khng phi do t gi tng m l do hin nay cc cng c
ca c ch th trng Vit Nam cha pht trin y .
Mt khc, hnh ng ph gi lm gi hng nhp tng ngi tiu dng c th
s chuyn sang dng hng thay th trong nc. Tuy nhin, thc t cho thy mt s
69
11
Theo tnh ton ca WB, vo nm 2005 ngi M phi b ra 3,4 USD mua c mt r hng ha tng ng
c gi 1 USD Vit Nam
70
Phng n 1
Theo kt qu d bo t gi m tc gi tnh, t gi VND/USD vo cui qu
4 nm 2009 l 17.834 VND/USD. Vi mc t gi ny tin ng b nh gi cao ti
13,85% vo cui 2009. Mc t gi c d bo theo s liu lch s, m trong qu
kh t gi VND/USD c kim sot rt cht ch v can thip su bi NHNN theo
hng gi t gi kh c nh, nn thng tin th trng cha trong t gi d bo ny
cng rt thp. V vy, ng i ca t gi c th c nn theo quan im ca
NHNN. Mt s thay i trong quan im qun l t gi c th s c mt tc ng
mnh n mc d bo t gi trn.
Mc d bo t gi ca tc gi rt gn vi d bo ca nhm nghin cu thuc
ngn hng u t v Pht Trin (BIDV), theo trong nm 2009, VND s mt gi
khong 3,5 - 5% so vi USD, t gi VND/USD s tng dn v t mc nh 18.000
- 18.200 VND/USD cui qu 2/2009 v gim dn v mc 17.600 - 17.800 vo cui
nm. (ng x nh th no vi bin ng t gi nm 2009? -Vneconomy ngy
9/12/2008).
Mc d mc t gi nu trn lm tin ng b nh gi cao, nhng theo tc gi
y li l mc t gi c nhiu kh nng xy ra nht vo cui 2009. Tuy nhin, y
khng phi l mc t gi m tc gi ngh v n khng phn nh cc quan im th
trng v c th tip tc lm cng thng th trng ngoi hi v quan trng nht l
n lm tin ng b nh gi cao.
Phng n 2
Theo phng n ny tin ng c th b ph gi n mc 20.700 ng/USD
vo cui 2009. mc t gi ny REER t 100, theo l thuyt tin ng c ngang
gi sc mua so vi r tin.
Kh nng ny ch c xt n khi cc nn tng v m tht s n nh v
phi kt hp vi vi nghin cu khc o lng tc ng ca ph gi ln ton b
nn nn kinh t, chng hn phi xem xt mt li, mt hi ca vic nh i gia gia
tng cnh tranh hng ha xut khu v nhng ri ro t gi m cc doanh nghip gp
phi, n nn chnh ph t , NHNN a ra quyt nh c chn mc t gi ny
hay khng. D on mc t gi 20.700 VND/USD t c kh nng thnh hin thc
71
trong nm 2009 nu chng ta bit rng NHNN cng khai u tin chnh sch n nh
t gi.
Mc d vy, y l mc t gi rt ng quan tm v n l mc t gi m ti
y tin ng c ngang gi sc mua so vi mt r tin t. V th, nu trong thi gian
sp ti t gi th trng c t c mc ny cng khng phi l iu qu bt ng.
Phng n 3
C mt mc t gi khc cng cn c xem xt. l i vi r tin, Vit
Nam ng c th la chn ph gi t l t 6% n 9%. Ti sao l nhng con s
ny? V y l nhng mc t gi c th gii quyt vn k vng ca th trng v
khng qu cao c th nh hng ln ln s n nh ca th trng.
Theo tnh ton t gi thc a phng, trong nm 2008 tin ng b nh
gi cao khong hn 6% (nm c s l 1999) hay 9% (nm c s l 2000). Do , t
gi cn c iu chnh ch t cng phi p ng chnh lch lm pht gia Vit
Nam v cc i tc thng mi trong nm 2008.
Ngoi ra, nu tin ng mt gi mc 6% s p ng chnh lch li sut
gia tin ng v USD theo hng gi tin ng vn c li hn USD v b cho
chnh lch lm pht gia Vit Nam v cc i tc trong nm 2008. Vi mc mt gi
9% cng khng phi l mc qu cao, tn hiu t th trng ang rt ng h cho mc
gi ny vo cui nm 2009.
Nu t gi b ph gi mc ngh nh trn, c th d on chc chn rng
tin ng s khng th t ngang gi sc mua vo cui 2009 (theo phng php
tnh t gi thc ca tc gi). Tuy nhin, iu ny li c th to ra cm gic NHNN
ang rt quyt tm iu chnh t gi n t c mc cn bng v t gi s t c
kh nng tng vt trong thi gian sp ti. Hay ni cch khc, y l mc t gi
mang tnh tm l nn s gp phn n nh th trng, ng thi n cng c tc dng
lm gim mc nh gi cao ca tin ng.
V mc t gi, n gin tc gi chn ng USD tin hnh tnh t gi
k vng cho nm 2009. Theo phng n iu chnh tng t gi 6%, t gi
VND/USD s l 17.486 * 106% = 18.535 VND/USD; theo phng n tng 9%, t
gi VND/USD s l 17.486 * 109% = 19.060 VND/USD.
72
73
74
khi ng vi vic pht trin cc ngnh thm dng vn nhm gii quyt vn lao
ng, Vit Nam nn chuyn sang giai on tng tc pht trin bng vic nn li
cc dng chy ca vn u t nc ngoi vo cc ngnh cng ngh k thut cao
c th to ra nhiu sn phm xut khu c gi tr gia tng cao
T gi khng phi l cy a thn c th gii quyt c ht cc vn nh
lm pht hay thm ht cn cn vng lai. Thm ht cn cn thng mi dng nh
cn ph thuc mnh m vo nng lc ni ti ca nn kinh t, vo cch iu hnh
kinh t v m ca chnh ph v c mi trng th gii. V vy, khng nn qu k
vng vo t gi gii quyt cc vn ca nn kinh t.
4.2.5 Cc bin php khc
i vi s cng thng hin nay trn th trng ngoi hi nh c s chnh
lch t gi gia th trng chnh thc v khng chnh thc, mt mt NHNN phi
xem xt c s iu chnh t gi nh gi trn. Tuy nhin, s bin ng ca t
gi hin nay cn c th l do tm l, s u c, gm gi ngoi t V vy, NHNN
cn c nhiu bin php khc nhau lm du cc cng thng trn th trng v gim
bt s chnh lch t gi ny ch khng nht thit phi ph gi mnh tin ng.
NHNN c th s dng nhiu hn cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t tc
ng vo t gi nh cng c li sut chng hn. i vi s cng thng hin ti trn
th trng ngoi hi (cui nm 2008 u nm 2009), theo NHNN l do c hin
tng gm gi ngoi t. Vy th NHNN bng cc nghip v ca mnh tc ng
gim li sut huy ng USD xung lm tng chnh lch li sut gia VND v USD,
tng tnh hp dn ca tin ng ln, t gim bt hin tng gm gi ngoi t.
Hin ti li sut huy ng USD ca NHTM trong nc vo khong 2% n
3%/nm trong khi li sut ny cc ngn hng nc ngoi thp hn nhiu, nhng
cc doanh nghip vn thch vay tin ng v tip tc gi ngoi t. Theo ph thng
c NHNN Nguyn Vn Bnh, nguyn nhn nm chnh sch h tr li sut cho
vay bng VND: cc doanh nghip vay tin ng c h tr c li hn nn vn
gm gi khng mun bn ra ngoi t.
Vi d tr ngoi hi hn 20 t USD, NHNN c th s dng cng c ny
bnh n t gi (tt nhin khi tht cn thit).
75
76
Theo Kahneman v Smith - Nobel kinh t 2002 th con ngi ch hnh ng theo kinh nghim ch khng theo
k vng hp l, l thuyt trn b sung cho cc m hnh d kin t gi v kim nh th trng hiu qu (Ti chnh
quc t - Trn Ngc Th, Nguyn Ngc nh (2005))
77
TS. Trn Ngc Th, TS. Nguyn Ngc nh (2006), do c nh t gi theo ng USD nn t gi thc ng
peso nh gi cao so vi cc ngoi t khc v hng ha Achentina mt i tnh cnh tranh, thm ht ti khon vng
lai tng lin tc. (Ti chnh quc t, H Kinh T TP.HCM).
78
14
Cuc khng hong ti chnh chu 1997-1998, cc nn kinh t cc nc ng Nam c hin tng bong
bng, lm pht tng cao, trong khi NHTW can thip duy tr s n nh ca ng ni t. Cuc khng hong xy
ra, Thi Lan tuyn b ph gi ng Bath dn n vic ph gi hng lot cc ng tin khc nh Rupiath ca
Indonesia, Ringit ca Malaysia, ng Peso Philippin, ng won ca Hn Quc
79
80
81
82
83
Vit Nam khng nn v cuc khng hong ti chnh ang din ra khp th
gii lm iu ng hng lot cc nn ti chnh lu i v vng mnh nht m nc
M l i din ri chm tr thc hin ci cch nn ti chnh ca mnh, trong
c vic hin i ha th trng tin t ngn hng, th trng ngoi hi.
Vn ca Vit Nam khc cc nc pht trin: cc nc pht trin c qu
nhiu sn phm phi sinh c tnh phc tp qu ln v trong mt thi gian di khng
c qun l kim sot cht ch. Hin nay th trng ti chnh ca cc nc pht
trin ging nh mt sng bc khng l nn khng hong l tt yu v cc nc ny
phi c k hoch ci t li. Cn Vit Nam c mt nn ti chnh rt s khai chng ta
cn trin khai pht trin th trng ti chnh ca mnh trn tinh thn thn trng, chc
lc cc tinh hoa v hn ch nhng sai lm t s pht trin ca th trng ti chnh
th gii. Hy xem cuc khng hong hin ti l mt bi hc qu cho Vit Nam
trong lc vch ra k hoch ny: th ni dn t gi hn na nhng vn tip tc kim
sot qu trnh vn ng ca t gi can thip khi cn thit, to ra mi trng cho
cc sn phm phi sinh tin t pht trin nhng chnh ph phi kim sot cht ch
th trng ny.
Hin nay th trng ngoi hi ca Vit Nam ang tn ti mt bt hp l l
doanh nghip khng c cng c phng nga ri ro nn chnh ph phi ra sc bo
v ri ro t gi cho doanh nghip ngc li doanh nghip c bo h k qu sinh
ra tm l li (v c khng c ng c) nn h thng t khi ch trng n vn
bo v mnh trc cc bin ng ca t gi.
thc hin c c ch th ni c qun l ng thc cht ca n, nht thit
phi c th trng ngoi hi pht trin vi y cc nh to lp th trng, nh
mi gii, nh bo him ri ro t gi, nh kinh doanh doanh chnh lch gi, nh u
c...
Chnh ph cn ch pht trin ng b cc loi th trng: th trng
ngoi hi, th trng tin t lin ngn hng, th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng v
to s lin thng gia cc th trng ny.
Trc tin c th s phi p dng mt m hnh th trng ngoi hi ca nc
ngoi, iu chnh cho n ph hp vi cc iu kin ca kinh t Vit Nam. a im
84
85
86
87
KT LUN
Mc tiu nghin cu ca lun vn ny l tnh ton t gi thc song phng
v a phng v nh gi tc ng ca n i vi hot ng xut nhp khu. S
dng t gi thc a phng nh l mt i lng o lng mc nh gi tin
ng, tc gi tin hnh xc nh xem t gi danh ngha hin ti b nh gi cao hay
thp so vi r tin chn. Kt qu tnh ton cho thy tin ng trong nm 2008
b nh gi cao so vi r tin. V vy, hng ha Vit Nam c kh nng gim sc
cnh tranh trn th trng th gii.
T m hnh hi quy t s xut khu trn nhp khu theo t gi thc, tc gi
nhn thy rng t gi thc song phng VND/USD c tr tc ng l mt qu,
trong khi t gi thc a phng th khng. Kt qu ny ch cho thy rng t gi
thc c tc ng n xut nhp khu, theo t gi thc tng gip ci thin cn cn
thng mi.
Do hn ch v thi gian, s liu v phng php nghin cu v cng do mc
tiu chn ban u nn ti ny khng tnh h s co gin xut nhp khu ca
Vit Nam cng nh cha a ra c cc nhn nh v tc ng ca t gi thc i
vi xut nhp khu theo cc tr thi gian khc nhau. V vy, c th nh gi
ton din hn tc ng ca t gi i vi cn cn thng mi ca Vit Nam, hng
nghin cu tip theo c th l tnh h s co gin xut nhp khu ny.
Trn c s cc kt qu tnh ton c, tc gi ngh s dng t gi thc a
phng lm t gi mc tiu v t gi s c iu chnh hng v mc t gi c
ngang gi sc mua so vi mt r tin nhm m bo kh nng cnh tranh quc t
ca hng ha quc ni. Theo , chnh sch iu hnh t gi trong thi gian ti nn
s dng t gi thc a phng kim tra tnh ph hp ca t gi bnh qun lin
ngn hng do ngn hng nh nc (NHNN) cng b hng ngy.
Gi tip theo ca tc gi l iu chnh tng t gi trong thi gian sp ti.
Tuy nhin, tc gi khng ng h quan im v mt cuc ph gi mnh tin ng
nhm khuyn khch xut khu v nhng ri ro t ng thi ny i vi cc khon
vay bng ngoi t ca cc doanh nghip v chnh ph, nguy c lm pht tng cao...
88
http://vneconomy.vn/20081209093729112P0C6/ung-xu-nhu-the-nao-voi-biendong-ty-gia-nam-2009.htm
-
9 nm 2006.
-
14/6/2006.
-
thng k.
-
nghin cu khoa hc cp b.
-
89
Kenichi Ohno (2003) Exchange Rate Management of Vietnam, Issue Paper for
Between Thailand and Her Trading Partners, Department of Economics and The
Center for Research on International Economics, The University of WisconsinMilwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201
-
Onafowora, Olugbenga (2003) "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is
90
PH LC 1: D LIU THNG K
Bng 1.1 T gi bnh qun lin ngn hng v t gi bn ca NHTM
Thi k
Q1 1999
Q2 1999
Q3 1999
Q4 1999
Q1 2000
Q2 2000
Q3 2000
Q4 2000
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
T gi BQLNH
13885
13921
13981
14016
14049
14071
14202
14501
14531
14831
14990
15070
15176
15260
15310
15368
15418
15463
15520
15608
15686
15685
15717
15736
15785
15816
15854
15875
15910
15957
16016
16101
16100
16132
16163
16114
15960
T gi NHTM
13902
13931
13993
14028
14062
14085
14215
14514
14545
14845
15003
15084
15250
15321
15347
15403
15443
15499
15557
15646
15724
15723
15755
15777
15823
15857
15895
15910
15932
15997
16009
16051
16025
16136
16100
16030
16120
91
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
16514
16517
16977
16844
16610
17486
Ngun: NHNN Vit Nam, Ngn hng Ngoi Thng Vit Nam.
Bng 1.2: Ch s GDP theo qu t qu 1 nm 2000 n qu 4 nm 2008
Q1 2000
Q2 2000
Q3 2000
Q4 2000
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Vit
Nam
Singa
por
Nht
105,62
106,72
106,92
107,57
107,14
106,90
106,94
106,68
106,59
107,04
107,11
107,43
106,80
106,46
108,11
107,88
106,98
107,08
108,00
108,81
107,44
108,04
109,26
108,74
107,35
107,42
108,78
108,91
107,66
107,99
109,77
109,15
110,93
110,34
104,61
99,28
93,57
93,70
99,19
104,66
106,49
106,20
103,70
98,42
104,46
108,45
109,59
113,04
107,74
107,17
104,28
106,68
108,77
109,32
110,63
108,31
107,72
106,98
107,59
108,59
101,87
100,18
100,14
100,91
100,51
99,42
98,83
99,53
100,32
100,89
100,64
100,18
99,55
100,77
100,53
101,50
101,15
99,80
100,40
99,65
100,90
101,00
100,60
100,29
100,39
100,71
100,42
100,55
101,45
99,76
100,25
101,57
99,89
100,52
99,88
100,31
99,65
100,39
100,68
100,54
100,59
100,05
100,30
100,86
101,82
100,66
100,73
100,86
100,89
100,63
100,74
100,65
100,95
100,33
101,18
100,66
100,20
100,37
100,01
101,18
Trung
Quc
i
Loan
Php
Trung
bnh
109,00
108,00
105,21
106,46
103,57
100,61
96,88
95,37
98,52
101,34
104,83
106,71
105,69
103,62
99,78
104,10
106,32
108,00
109,23
105,37
102,48
102,16
103,11
104,37
106,89
104,97
104,92
105,45
103,91
103,84
105,49
101,19
100,81
100,37
101,08
100,55
99,95
100,31
99,56
100,71
100,49
100,35
100,01
100,29
99,91
100,77
100,64
100,48
100,74
100,34
100,84
100,27
100,28
100,64
100,56
100,57
101,09
100,05
100,68
100,67
100,43
101,13
101,16
99,95
100,08
101,06
100,03
99,83
100,25
99,64
100,17
100,37
99,83
99,49
99,79
100,48
100,40
100,26
100,07
99,82
100,03
100,16
100,71
100,52
100,17
100,83
101,50
100,70
101,05
100,41
100,35
105,34
104,80
104,52
104,35
102,83
100,68
98,66
100,09
101,62
103,43
104,00
103,67
102,80
101,52
103,54
104,83
105,53
105,48
103,91
103,75
103,61
104,11
104,84
104,79
105,01
104,77
104,83
104,47
105,55
105,27
108,30
108,20
107,30
108,50
107,80
107,00
106,60
108,90
108,00
108,10
108,10
110,80
107,90
109,60
109,90
110,40
109,60
109,10
109,50
110,50
110,10
109,80
109,90
111,40
111,50
110,60
110,40
113,00
114,00
92
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
108,73
109,45
107,52
105,82
106,47
105,55
109,48
105,49
106,66
102,51
100,04
95,77
100,20
100,45
100,84
99,10
99,37
96,19
101,17
99,96
100,22
100,70
99,87
98,38
113,00
112,00
110,60
110,10
109,00
106,80
107,02
106,35
106,25
104,56
98,95
91,39
100,70
100,35
100,37
99,59
99,82
98,55
100,60
100,34
101,53
99,50
99,46
97,77
105,79
105,00
105,05
103,56
101,87
98,86
Ngun: Ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB), OECD v tnh ton ca tc gi.
Bng 1.3: Xut nhp khu v t gi theo qu
Xut khu
Q1 1999
Q2 1999
Q3 1999
Q4 1999
Q1 2000
Q2 2000
Q3 2000
Q4 2000
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
2280
2625
2950
3273
2944
3380
3960
3900
3532
4000
4460
4041
3680
4140
4510
4560
4465
4880
5300
4989
5272
5900
6660
6750
6814
7700
8350
8570
Nhp khu
2379
2770
3000
3389
3104
3720
2600
4088
3582
4280
2820
2838
3770
4490
3200
5248
4694
6050
3900
6220
5890
7330
7780
8400
7994
9600
9350
9600
T s xut trn
nhp khu
0,96
0,95
0,98
0,97
0,95
0,91
1,52
0,95
0,99
0,93
1,58
1,42
0,98
0,92
1,41
0,87
0,95
0,81
1,36
0,80
0,90
0,80
0,86
0,80
0,85
0,80
0,89
0,89
T gi
VND/USD
13.872
13.897
13.955
14.012
14.053
14.074
14.118
14.421
14.548
14.643
14.964
15.047
15.130
15.237
15.321
15.374
15.429
15.467
15.520
15.617
15.715
15.733
15.750
15.763
15.797
15.844
15.875
15.905
93
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
8400
9800
10360
10360
10100
11950
12750
13400
13000
15750
17542
14163
9150
11100
11950
12150
10900
14150
15350
17300
20232
22650
18837
15757
15.917
15.961
16.014
16.071
16.020
16.069
16.182
16.062
15.949
16.271
16.673
16.904
0,92
0,88
0,87
0,85
0,93
0,84
0,83
0,77
0,64
0,70
0,93
0,90
Ngun: Asia Regional Integration Center - Ngn hng pht trin chu ADB, (ti
a ch http://aric.adb.org) v Bloomberg LP
Bng 1.4: T gi thc a phng theo qu, k gc 1999, lm pht Vit Nam v
lm pht trung bnh ca cc nc v vng lnh th c tham gia r tin
K
Q1 1999
Q2 1999
Q3 1999
Q4 1999
Q1 2000
Q2 2000
Q3 2000
Q4 2000
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
REER
100,000
81,299
108,467
110,793
107,816
109,691
110,053
109,592
105,813
107,608
111,314
106,492
104,258
110,741
110,106
111,055
109,946
110,646
116,001
116,898
CPI vn
100,000
99,111
97,899
96,767
98,276
96,767
95,690
96,309
96,929
95,986
95,932
96,525
99,408
99,866
100,054
100,808
103,217
103,360
102,889
103,396
94
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009*
Q2 2009*
Q3 2009*
Q4 2009*
Q1 2010*
Q2 2010*
Q3 2010*
Q4 2010*
114,403
111,009
109,485
112,735
108,470
105,198
103,368
102,229
101,069
101,976
100,779
102,498
101,922
98,835
100,119
100,152
99,645
95,298
88,755
94,757
95,397
90,095
87,422
86,154
93,280
87,716
84,802
83,397
103,892
104,942
105,749
105,271
105,696
106,185
106,490
107,239
107,942
108,729
108,063
107,873
109,455
110,542
111,731
112,661
114,052
115,346
116,593
115,375
114,116
115,388
116,576
115,304
114,844
116,130
117,264
115,878
107,592
110,733
112,869
113,630
117,338
119,662
121,372
123,176
127,084
128,585
130,227
131,469
135,451
138,132
141,410
145,488
157,671
171,962
180,658
179,776
163,977
178,841
187,884
186,967
170,536
185,994
195,400
194,446
95
Tn
nc
Singapore
Thailand
i Loan
Hn
Quc
Nht
2001
2002
2003
105.92
112.08
111.26
108.05
109.45
115.88
106.91
106.22
118.35
112.72
107.96
101.64
116.68
123.46
Trung
Quc
102.09
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 Australia
11 Viet Nam
104.54
104.90
100.00
108.82
107.21
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
99.17
86.53
119.51
90.55
81.33
115.09
82.00
80.04
93.88
117.09
134.07
120.53
104.56
105.69
97.27
87.07
99.13
98.97
100.00
102.44
108.78
83.32
82.32
100.00
84.52
109.56
72.52
71.68
100.00
66.51
94.73
68.32
67.41
100.00
65.07
86.46
96.84
87.10
(ADB),
Cc
d
tr
lin
bang
M
(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5a) v tng cc thng k Vit Nam; CPI:
tng hp t cc trang web http://www.bls.gov ca b lao ng M,
http://www.unstats.un.org ca chnh ph M cng b cc s liu v chu , trang
web ca din n hp tc chu Thi Bnh Dng (APEC) v Tng cc thng k
Vit Nam; ch s t gi thc do tc gi tnh.
Bng 2.2: Bng xp hng mc nh gi cao ca cc ng tin trong r tin
STT
1
2
3
4
5
Tn nc
Singapore
Thailand
i Loan
Hn Quc
Nht
2001
4
8
7
9
10
2002
6
8
9
5
10
2003
7
6
10
4
9
2004
7
5
10
3
9
2005
8
5
9
3
10
2006
7
4
9
3
10
2007
7
4
9
3
10
2008
6
3
9
7
10
6 Trung Quc
3
1
6
5
1
2
3
7
1
3
2
8
2
4
1
8
2
4
1
6
2
6
1
5
2
8
1
5
2
8
1
4
7 c
8 M
9 Australia
10 Viet Nam
96
1999
7.051,8
876,4
312,7
682,4
319,9
1.786,2
746,4
654,3
354,9
504,0
814,6
8.900,3
1.878,5
561,8
1.566,4
1.485,8
1.618,3
673,1
268,7
309,3
322,7
215,7
2000
9.594,7
885,9
372,3
756,6
352,6
2.575,2
1.536,4
730,3
380,1
732,8
1.272,5
12.127,0
2.694,3
810,9
1.879,9
1.753,6
2.300,9
1.401,1
295,2
334,2
363,4
293,5
2001
9.802,2
1.043,7
322,8
806,0
406,1
2.509,8
1.417,4
721,8
467,5
1.065,3
1.041,8
12.329,7
2.478,3
792,3
2.008,7
1.886,8
2.183,1
1.606,2
396,7
300,4
410,8
266,4
2002
11.378,1
961,1
227,3
817,7
468,7
2.437,0
1.518,3
729,0
437,9
2.452,8
1.328,3
14.559,0
2.533,5
955,2
2.525,3
2.279,6
2.504,7
2.158,8
558,1
299,2
458,3
286,3
2003
14.103,4
1.024,7
335,4
749,2
492,1
2.908,6
1.883,1
854,7
496,1
3.938,6
1.420,9
18.266,5
2.875,8
1.282,2
2.915,5
2.625,4
2.982,1
3.138,6
614,6
411,0
1.143,3
278,0
17,27%
5,48%
14,10%
11,32%
21,34%
8,90%
5,79%
4,16%
5,18%
6,46%
16,48%
5,45%
12,14%
9,70%
22,45%
13,52%
4,72%
3,29%
5,05%
7,21%
15,91%
5,04%
12,72%
10,36%
21,20%
13,66%
5,05%
3,47%
6,67%
5,91%
13,47%
4,56%
12,89%
10,60%
19,05%
14,18%
4,96%
2,84%
11,22%
6,23%
12,05%
5,00%
11,32%
9,63%
18,20%
15,51%
4,54%
2,80%
15,70%
5,25%
97
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Xin-ga-po
100
Thi Lan
100,20
i Loan
100,20
Hn Quc
100,80
Nht Bn
99,70
Trung Quc
98,60
c
100,57
Php
100,54
M
102,19
-xtry-li-a
101,30
Vit nam
104,20
iu chnh CPI v nm gc
1 Xin-ga-po
100,00
2 Thi Lan
100,00
3 i Loan
100,00
4 Hn Quc
100,00
5 Nht Bn
100,00
6 Trung Quc
100,00
7 c
100,00
8 Php
100,00
9 M
100,00
10 -xtry-li-a
100,00
Vit nam
100,00
T gi (ng/n v ngoi t)
1 Xin-ga-po
8.436,56
2 Thi Lan
374,13
3 i Loan
447,10
4 Hn Quc
12,29
5 Nht Bn
137,38
6 Trung Quc
1.694,55
7 c
14097,1
8 Php
14097,1
9 M
14028
10 -xtry-li-a
9136,34
T gi danh ngha
1 Xin-ga-po
100
2 Thi Lan
100
3 i Loan
100
4 Hn Quc
100
5 Nht Bn
100
6 Trung Quc
100
101,3
101,70
101,30
102,30
99,20
100,40
101,45
101,69
103,40
102,40
98,40
101
101,60
100,00
104,10
99,30
100,70
101,98
101,63
102,80
106,00
99,66
99,6
100,60
99,80
102,80
99,10
99,20
101,40
101,92
101,60
102,90
103,90
100,5
101,80
99,70
103,50
99,70
101,20
101,04
102,11
102,30
103,10
103,10
101,3
101,70
101,30
102,30
99,20
100,40
101,45
101,69
103,40
102,40
98,40
102,31
103,33
101,30
106,49
98,51
101,10
103,46
103,35
106,30
108,54
98,07
101,90
103,95
101,10
109,48
97,62
100,29
104,91
105,33
108,00
111,69
101,89
102,41
105,82
100,79
113,31
97,33
101,50
106,00
107,55
110,48
115,15
105,05
8.405,08
336,01
441,93
11,53
127,34
1.759,73
13722,6
13722,6
14514
8155,5
8.539,38
357,83
450,17
12,04
120,49
1.910,92
13996,1
13996,1
15084
8080,17
8.958,71
363,70
458,57
13,38
130,98
1.934,78
16237,78
16237,78
15406
8760,71
9.264,62
402,80
474,06
13,53
147,42
1.954,35
19744,1
19744,1
15647
11768
99,627
89,810
98,844
93,834
92,692
103,846
101,219
95,642
100,686
97,925
87,707
112,769
106,189
97,211
102,566
108,838
95,345
114,177
109,815
107,662
106,030
110,054
107,312
115,332
98
7 c
100
97,343
8 Php
100
97,343
9 M
100
103,464
10 -xtry-li-a
100
89,264
T gi thc song phng
1 Xin-ga-po
100
102,563
2 Thi Lan
100
92,822
3 i Loan
100
101,757
4 Hn Quc
100
97,553
5 Nht Bn
100
93,446
6 Trung Quc
100
105,957
7 c
100
100,361
8 Php
100
100,599
9 M
100
108,722
10 -xtry-li-a
100
92,893
REER
100
99,31
T gi VND/ ngoi t quy i theo REER
1 Xin-ga-po
8463,8
2 Thi Lan
338,356
3 i Loan
445,017
4 Hn Quc
11,6135
5 Nht Bn
128,226
6 Trung Quc
1772,02
7 c
13818,5
8 Php
13818,5
14615,4
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
8212,48
99,284
99,284
107,528
88,440
115,185
115,185
109,823
95,889
140,058
140,058
111,541
128,805
105,603
100,773
104,007
106,342
88,100
116,261
104,742
104,633
116,552
97,890
103,18
106,203
99,174
101,768
116,942
91,348
112,388
118,596
119,074
116,405
105,113
106,55
107,060
108,451
101,736
118,707
99,423
111,433
141,328
143,395
117,308
141,195
112,91
8276,59
346,815
436,313
11,6654
116,779
1852,11
13565,4
13565,4
14619,8
7831,51
8407,716
341,3311
430,3681
12,55436
122,9242
1815,784
15239,1
15239,1
14458,47
8221,894
8205,22
356,74
419,853
11,9798
130,563
1730,87
17486,4
17486,4
13857,8
10422,4
Bng 2.3a Kt qu tnh ton t gi thc a phng t 2004 n 2008 (tip theo)
K gc: nm 1999
Gi tr xut khu
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1.485,3
518,1
890,6
608,1
3.542,1
2.899,1
1.064,7
1.917,0
863,0
935,0
663,6
4.340,3
3.228,1
1.085,5
1.811,7
930,2
968,7
842,9
5.240,1
3.242,8
1.445,3
2.202,0
1.033,9
1.139,4
1.252,7
6.069,8
3.356,7
1.855,1
2.659,7
1.348,9
1.401,4
1.784,4
8.537,9
4.535,7
2.073,4
99
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
Gi tr nhp khu
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
Quyn s (wj)
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
Vit nam
iu chnh CPI v nm gc
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
555,1
5.024,8
1.884,7
652,9
5.924,0
2.722,8
797,2
7.845,1
3.744,7
884,4
10.089,1
3.556,9
970,8
11.868,5
4.225,2
3.618,4
1.858,6
3.698,3
3.359,4
3.552,6
4.595,1
694,3
617,4
1.133,9
458,8
100%
12,13%
5,65%
10,91%
9,43%
16,87%
17,82%
4,18%
2,79%
14,64%
5,57%
4.482,3
2.374,1
4.304,2
3.594,1
4.074,1
5.899,7
661,9
447,7
862,9
498,5
100%
12,92%
6,54%
10,58%
8,60%
16,99%
18,43%
3,53%
2,22%
13,70%
6,50%
6.273,9
3.034,4
4.824,9
3.908,4
4.702,1
7.391,3
914,5
421,1
987,0
1.099,7
100%
13,38%
6,56%
9,59%
7,86%
16,45%
17,60%
3,91%
2,02%
14,62%
8,02%
7.608,6
3.737,2
6.916,6
5.334,0
6.177,7
12.502,0
1.308,5
1.155,3
1.699,7
1.059,4
100%
12,43%
6,04%
10,21%
8,34%
15,52%
20,09%
4,01%
2,58%
14,93%
5,85%
9.392,5
4.905,6
8.362,6
7.066,3
8.240,7
15.652,1
1.480,0
829,4
2.635,3
1.360,5
100%
12,13%
6,30%
9,83%
8,91%
16,89%
20,32%
3,58%
1,81%
14,60%
5,62%
101,7
102,80
101,60
103,60
100,00
103,90
101,67
102,13
102,70
102,40
107,80
100,5
104,50
102,30
102,80
99,70
101,80
101,56
101,74
103,40
102,40
108,30
101
104,70
100,60
102,20
100,30
101,50
101,58
101,68
103,20
103,20
107,50
102,1
102,30
101,80
102,50
100,00
104,80
102,29
101,49
102,80
102,90
108,30
106,5
105,50
103,50
104,67
101,38
105,90
102,63
102,81
103,84
104,35
122,97
104,15
108,78
104,68
113,68
105,72
119,02
107,94
121,76
114,96
128,45
100
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
i Loan
102,41
Hn Quc
117,39
Nht Bn
97,33
Trung Quc
105,46
c
107,77
Php
109,85
M
113,46
-xtry-li-a
117,92
Vit nam
113,24
T gi (ng/n v ngoi t)
1 Xin-ga-po
9.721,98
2 Thi Lan
412,52
3 i Loan
493,92
4 Hn Quc
15,40
5 Nht Bn
154,64
6 Trung Quc
1.909,88
7 c
21.604,50
8 Php
21.604,50
9 M
15.778,00
10 -xtry-li-a
12.353,32
Ch s t gi danh ngha
1 Xin-ga-po
115,236
2 Thi Lan
110,260
3 i Loan
110,471
4 Hn Quc
125,260
5 Nht Bn
112,568
6 Trung Quc
112,707
7 c
153,255
8 Php
153,255
9 M
112,475
10 -xtry-li-a
135,211
T gi thc song phng
1 Xin-ga-po
105,988
2 Thi Lan
105,916
3 i Loan
99,900
4 Hn Quc
129,844
5 Nht Bn
96,746
6 Trung Quc
104,958
7 c
145,850
104,76
120,67
97,03
107,35
109,45
111,75
117,32
120,75
122,64
105,39
123,33
97,33
108,96
111,17
113,64
121,07
124,61
131,84
107,29
126,41
97,33
114,19
113,72
115,33
124,46
128,23
142,78
111,04
132,32
98,67
120,93
116,71
118,57
129,24
133,80
175,58
9.637,32
396,00
484,10
15,98
136,08
1.971,60
18.961,63
18.961,63
15.915,00
11.699,30
10.550,00
460,00
511,91
18,19
136,00
2.138,89
21.234,00
21.234,00
16.051,00
12.773,00
11.190,63
567,32
500,89
17,42
143,96
2.231,80
23.784,54
23.784,54
16.030,00
14.198,88
12.279,10
519,35
539,80
14,06
195,66
2.596,05
25.000,88
25.000,88
17.486,00
12.208,01
114,233
105,845
108,275
130,001
99,057
116,349
134,507
134,507
113,452
128,052
125,051
122,951
114,495
148,016
98,999
126,222
150,627
150,627
114,421
139,804
132,644
151,636
112,031
141,734
104,793
131,705
168,719
168,719
114,271
155,411
145,546
138,814
120,734
114,403
142,428
153,200
177,348
177,348
124,651
133,620
97,498
98,107
92,490
127,915
78,374
101,846
120,039
100,278
110,995
91,526
138,461
73,082
104,321
127,015
100,278
129,306
84,181
125,483
71,431
105,335
134,375
95,294
101,556
76,356
86,214
80,039
105,518
117,884
101
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
REER
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
148,660
112,694
140,793
111,61
8711,01
369,62
442,55
13,79
138,56
1711,28
19357,90
19357,90
14137,28
11068,73
122,566
108,529
126,075
101,90
9457,84
388,63
475,08
15,68
133,55
1934,88
18608,50
18608,50
15618,61
11481,42
129,829
105,079
132,140
104,28
10117,26
441,13
490,91
17,45
130,42
2051,16
20363,02
20363,02
15392,62
12249,08
136,276
99,612
139,567
103,53
10809,29
547,99
483,82
16,83
139,05
2155,75
22974,05
22974,05
15483,76
13715,03
119,761
91,756
101,828
93,62
13115,74
554,74
576,58
15,02
208,99
2772,93
26704,33
26704,33
18677,42
13039,81
Ngun: Tng cc thng k, Ngn hng ngoi thng Vit Nam, B Lao ng M
(ti a ch http://www.bls.gov/cpi), trang web http:// www.unstats.un.org ca chnh
ph M, Ngn hng Pht Trin Chu (ADB), cng ty OANDA v cc tnh ton
ca tc gi.
Bng 2.3b: T gi thc a phng ca Vit Nam (t nm 2000 n nm 2004)
Nm gc: 2000
1. Gi tr xut khu
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
2. Gi tr nhp khu
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
885,9
372,3
756,6
352,6
2.575,2
1.536,4
730,3
380,1
732,8
1.272,5
1.043,7
322,8
806,0
406,1
2.509,8
1.417,4
721,8
467,5
1.065,3
1.041,8
961,1
227,3
817,7
468,7
2.437,0
1.518,3
729,0
437,9
2.452,8
1.328,3
1.024,7
335,4
749,2
492,1
2.908,6
1.883,1
854,7
496,1
3.938,6
1.420,9
1.485,3
518,1
890,6
608,1
3.542,1
2.899,1
1.064,7
555,1
5.024,8
1.884,7
2.694,3
810,9
1.879,9
1.753,6
2.300,9
1.401,1
2.478,3
792,3
2.008,7
1.886,8
2.183,1
1.606,2
2.533,5
955,2
2.525,3
2.279,6
2.504,7
2.158,8
2.875,8
1.282,2
2.915,5
2.625,4
2.982,1
3.138,6
3.618,4
1.858,6
3.698,3
3.359,4
3.552,6
4.595,1
102
7 c
295,2
8 Php
334,2
9 M
363,4
10 -xtry-li-a
293,5
3. Quyn s (wj)
1 Xin-ga-po
16,48%
2 Thi Lan
5,45%
3 i Loan
12,14%
4 Hn Quc
9,70%
5 Nht Bn
22,45%
6 Trung Quc
13,52%
7 c
4,72%
8 Php
3,29%
9 M
5,05%
10 -xtry-li-a
7,21%
4. CPI
1 Xin-ga-po
101,3
2 Thi Lan
101,70
3 i Loan
101,30
4 Hn Quc
102,30
5 Nht Bn
99,20
6 Trung Quc
100,40
7 c
101,45
8 Php
101,69
9 M
103,40
10 -xtry-li-a
102,40
Vit nam
98,40
5. iu chnh CPI v nm gc
1 Xin-ga-po
100,00
2 Thi Lan
100,00
3 i Loan
100,00
4 Hn Quc
100,00
5 Nht Bn
100,00
6 Trung Quc
100,00
7 c
100,00
8 Php
100,00
9 M
100,00
10 -xtry-li-a
100,00
Vit nam
100,00
6. T gi (ng/n v ngoi t)
1 Xin-ga-po
8.405,08
396,7
300,4
410,8
266,4
558,1
299,2
458,3
286,3
614,6
411,0
1.143,3
278,0
694,3
617,4
1.133,9
458,8
15,91%
5,04%
12,72%
10,36%
21,20%
13,66%
5,05%
3,47%
6,67%
5,91%
13,47%
4,56%
12,89%
10,60%
19,05%
14,18%
4,96%
2,84%
11,22%
6,23%
12,05%
5,00%
11,32%
9,63%
18,20%
15,51%
4,54%
2,80%
15,70%
5,25%
12,13%
5,65%
10,91%
9,43%
16,87%
17,82%
4,18%
2,79%
14,64%
5,57%
101
101,60
100,00
104,10
99,30
100,70
101,98
101,63
102,80
106,00
99,66
99,6
100,60
99,80
102,80
99,10
99,20
101,40
101,92
101,60
102,90
103,90
100,5
101,80
99,70
103,50
99,70
101,20
101,04
102,11
102,30
103,10
103,10
101,7
102,80
101,60
103,60
100,00
103,90
101,67
102,13
102,70
102,40
107,80
101,00
101,60
100,00
104,10
99,30
100,70
101,98
101,63
102,80
106,00
99,66
100,60
102,21
99,80
107,01
98,41
99,89
103,41
103,58
104,44
109,07
103,55
101,10
104,05
99,50
110,76
98,11
101,09
104,49
105,76
106,85
112,46
106,76
102,82
106,96
101,09
114,75
98,11
105,04
106,23
108,02
109,73
115,15
115,08
8.539,38
8.958,71
9.264,62
9.721,98
103
2 Thi Lan
336,01
3 i Loan
441,93
4 Hn Quc
11,53
5 Nht Bn
127,34
6 Trung Quc
1.759,73
7 c
13.722,60
8 Php
13.722,60
9 M
14.514,00
10 -xtry-li-a
8.155,50
7. T gi danh ngha
1 Xin-ga-po
100,000
2 Thi Lan
100,000
3 i Loan
100,000
4 Hn Quc
100,000
5 Nht Bn
100,000
6 Trung Quc
100,000
7 c
100,000
8 Php
100,000
9 M
100,000
10 -xtry-li-a
100,000
8. T gi thc song phng
1 Xin-ga-po
100,000
2 Thi Lan
100,000
3 i Loan
100,000
4 Hn Quc
100,000
5 Nht Bn
100,000
6 Trung Quc
100,000
7 c
100,000
8 Php
100,000
9 M
100,000
10 -xtry-li-a
100,000
REER
100
357,83
450,17
12,04
120,49
1.910,92
13.996,10
13.996,10
15.084,00
8.080,17
363,70
458,57
13,38
130,98
1.934,78
16.237,78
16.237,78
15.406,00
8.760,71
402,80
474,06
13,53
147,42
1.954,35
19.744,10
19.744,10
15.647,00
11.768,02
412,52
493,92
15,40
154,64
1.909,88
21.604,50
21.604,50
15.778,00
12.353,32
101,598
106,493
101,864
104,361
94,621
108,592
101,993
101,993
103,927
99,076
106,587
108,241
103,766
115,991
102,862
109,948
118,329
118,329
106,146
107,421
110,226
119,878
107,271
117,286
115,772
111,060
143,880
143,880
107,806
144,296
115,668
122,771
111,763
133,491
121,442
108,533
157,437
157,437
108,709
151,472
102,964
103,549
108,566
106,843
102,211
100,011
109,010
119,876
94,280
97,755
109,725
106,069
104,365
118,169
104,009
118,365
107,202
107,066
105,379
113,155
103,39154 106,36603
104,385
116,838
99,980
121,685
106,397
105,168
140,820
142,541
107,897
151,998
112,4356
103,340
114,107
98,176
133,101
103,532
99,057
145,326
147,775
103,653
151,565
111,1891
Ngun: Tng cc thng k, Ngn hng ngoi thng Vit Nam, B Lao ng M
(ti a ch www//bls.gov/cpi), trang web www.unstats.un.org ca chnh ph M,
Ngn hng Pht Trin Chu (ADB), cng ty OANDA v cc tnh ton ca tc gi.
Bng 2.3b: T gi thc a phng ca Vit Nam (t nm 2005 n nm 2008)
Nm gc: 2000
2005
1. Gi tr xut khu
1 Xin-ga-po
1.917,0
2006
1.811,7
2007
2.202,0
2008
2.659,7
104
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
2. Gi tr nhp khu
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
3. Quyn s (wj)
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
4. CPI
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
863,0
935,0
663,6
4.340,3
3.228,1
1.085,5
652,9
5.924,0
2.722,8
930,2
968,7
842,9
5.240,1
3.242,8
1.445,3
797,2
7.845,1
3.744,7
1.033,9
1.139,4
1.252,7
6.069,8
3.356,7
1.855,1
884,4
10.089,1
3.556,9
1.348,9
1.401,4
1.784,4
8.537,9
4.535,7
2.073,4
970,8
11.868,5
4.225,2
4.482,3
2.374,1
4.304,2
3.594,1
4.074,1
5.899,7
661,9
447,7
862,9
498,5
6.273,9
3.034,4
4.824,9
3.908,4
4.702,1
7.391,3
914,5
421,1
987,0
1.099,7
7.608,6
3.737,2
6.916,6
5.334,0
6.177,7
12.502,0
1.308,5
1.155,3
1.699,7
1.059,4
9.392,5
4.905,6
8.362,6
7.066,3
8.240,7
15.652,1
1.480,0
829,4
2.635,3
1.360,5
12,92%
6,54%
10,58%
8,60%
16,99%
18,43%
3,53%
2,22%
13,70%
6,50%
13,38%
6,56%
9,59%
7,86%
16,45%
17,60%
3,91%
2,02%
14,62%
8,02%
12,43%
6,04%
10,21%
8,34%
15,52%
20,09%
4,01%
2,58%
14,93%
5,85%
12,13%
6,30%
9,83%
8,91%
16,89%
20,32%
3,58%
1,81%
14,60%
5,62%
100,5
104,50
102,30
102,80
99,70
101,80
101,56
101,74
103,40
101
104,70
100,60
102,20
100,30
101,50
101,58
101,68
103,20
102,1
102,30
101,80
102,50
100,00
104,80
102,29
101,49
102,80
106,5
105,50
103,50
104,67
101,38
105,90
102,63
102,81
103,84
105
10 -xtry-li-a
Vit nam
5. iu chnh CPI v nm gc
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
Vit nam
6. T gi (ng/n v ngoi t)
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
7. T gi danh ngha
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
5 Nht Bn
6 Trung Quc
7 c
8 Php
9 M
10 -xtry-li-a
8. T gi thc song phng
1 Xin-ga-po
2 Thi Lan
3 i Loan
4 Hn Quc
102,40
108,30
103,20
107,50
102,90
108,30
104,35
122,97
103,33
111,78
103,42
117,96
97,82
106,93
107,88
109,90
113,46
117,92
124,64
104,37
117,03
104,04
120,56
98,11
108,53
109,58
111,75
117,09
121,69
133,98
106,56
119,72
105,91
123,57
98,11
113,74
112,09
113,41
120,37
125,22
145,10
113,48
126,31
109,62
129,34
99,46
120,45
115,04
116,60
124,99
130,67
178,43
9.637,32
396,00
484,10
15,98
136,08
1.971,60
18.961,63
18.961,63
15.915,00
11.699,30
10.550,00
460,00
511,91
18,19
136,00
2.138,89
21.234,00
21.234,00
16.051,00
12.773,00
11.190,63
567,32
500,89
17,42
143,96
2.231,80
23.784,54
23.784,54
16.030,00
14.198,88
12.279,10
519,35
539,80
14,06
195,66
2.596,05
25.000,88
25.000,88
17.486,00
12.208,01
114,661
117,854
109,542
138,545
106,867
112,040
138,178
138,178
109,653
143,453
125,519
136,901
115,835
157,743
106,804
121,546
154,737
154,737
110,590
156,618
133,141
168,841
113,342
151,048
113,055
126,826
173,324
173,324
110,445
174,102
145,546
138,814
120,734
114,403
142,428
153,200
177,348
177,348
124,651
133,620
95,062
105,694
90,893
131,125
97,772
119,578
89,946
141,935
97,772
139,306
82,728
128,631
92,566
98,261
74,170
82,927
106
5
6
7
8
9
10
REER
Nht Bn
Trung Quc
c
Php
M
-xtry-li-a
83,871
96,120
119,607
121,837
99,823
135,721
101,4672
78,208
98,456
126,558
129,056
96,649
142,250
103,9829
76,441
99,413
133,892
135,465
91,621
150,245
102,9134
79,393
103,416
114,340
115,886
87,319
97,850
90,97
Ngun: Tng cc thng k, Ngn hng ngoi thng Vit Nam, B Lao ng M
(ti a ch www//bls.gov/cpi), trang web www.unstats.un.org ca chnh ph M,
Ngn hng Pht Trin Chu (ADB), cng ty OANDA v cc tnh ton ca tc gi.
107
Bng 2.3c
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
Gremany
TC
Q2 1999
Q3 1999
Q4 1999
Q1 2000
Q2 2000
Q3 2000
Q4 2000
Q1 2001
Q2 2001
141,50
273,50
127,80
142,20
100,50
75,00
132,20
992,70
276,00
451,00
107,30
350,00
298,30
79,00
233,10
1794,70
278,50
476,50
149,80
35,80
109,20
98,00
105,70
1253,50
126,00
585,00
223,50
331,00
174,00
102,00
183,00
1724,50
232,00
552,00
189,90
228,00
155,00
89,60
177,00
1623,50
204,00
624,00
180,20
582,40
208,00
132,40
121,50
2052,50
243,00
723,00
223,10
212,60
188,00
65,00
224,50
1879,20
207,00
723,00
228,10
511,00
205,00
105,00
207,00
2186,10
281,00
576,00
164,90
350,00
173,00
84,00
180,00
1808,90
283,00
674,00
263,30
444,00
199,00
126,00
173,00
2162,30
310
289
61,4
150
254
74
58
1196,4
538
364
66,9
259
475
51
135,2
1889,1
521
383
67,1
27
372
93
19,5
1482,6
514
441
96,1
202
396
83
74
1806,1
598
501
111,1
241
406
91
54
2002,1
963
700
92,5
281
486
56
48
2626,5
500
390
78,9
376
473
58
86
1961,9
699
660
85
525
531
86
107
2693
644
490
89,6
303
425
67
67
2085,6
367,6
792
133,4
402
533,4
90
98,4
2416,8
0,206
0,257
0,086
0,133
0,162
0,068
0,087
1,000
0,221
0,221
0,047
0,165
0,210
0,035
0,100
1,000
0,292
0,314
0,079
0,023
0,176
0,070
0,046
1,000
0,181
0,291
0,091
0,151
0,161
0,052
0,073
1,000
0,229
0,290
0,083
0,129
0,155
0,050
0,064
1,000
0,249
0,283
0,058
0,185
0,148
0,040
0,036
1,000
0,193
0,290
0,079
0,153
0,172
0,032
0,081
1,000
0,186
0,283
0,064
0,212
0,151
0,039
0,064
1,000
0,238
0,274
0,065
0,168
0,154
0,039
0,063
1,000
0,142
0,320
0,087
0,185
0,160
0,047
0,059
1,000
108
Ngoi t -VND
8025,60 8188,40 8218,60 8420,20 8180,80 8144,50 8164,80 8382,30 8078,30 8153,50
Singapore
115,50
115,00
131,00
137,30
132,80
133,60
131,80
126,30
116,70
119,70
Japan
13872,17 13897,25 13954,79 14011,66 14053,42 14074,24 14118,15 14421,37 14547,89 14642,92
US
1679,00 1682,70 1690,50 1694,30 1698,60 1701,50 1716,80 1753,40 1757,10 1793,60
China
419,80
428,90
440,00
443,80
458,10
457,20
455,70
438,70
446,30
433,20
Taiwan
14933,50 14387,90 14923,50 14092,50 13433,50 13459,70 12459,50 13505,20 12846,10 12588,60
france
14933,50 14387,90 14923,50 14092,50 13433,50 13459,70 12459,50 13505,20 12846,10 12588,60
gremany
T gi danh ngha
100,00
102,03
102,40
104,92
101,93
101,48
101,73
104,44
100,66
101,59
Singapore
100,00
99,57
113,42
118,87
114,98
115,67
114,11
109,35
101,04
103,64
Japan
100,00
100,18
100,60
101,01
101,31
101,46
101,77
103,96
104,87
105,56
US
100,00
100,22
100,68
100,91
101,17
101,34
102,25
104,43
104,65
106,83
China
100,00
102,17
104,81
105,72
109,12
108,91
108,55
104,50
106,31
103,19
Taiwan
100,00
96,35
99,93
94,37
89,96
90,13
83,43
90,44
86,02
84,30
france
100,00
96,35
99,93
94,37
89,96
90,13
83,43
90,44
86,02
84,30
gremany
CPI
103,35
102,43
101,18
100,01
101,57
100,01
98,89
99,53
100,17
99,20
Vietnam
98,45
98,63
98,80
98,80
99,57
99,42
100,27
100,74
101,27
101,12
Singapore
99,01
100,32
99,71
100,00
99,32
100,29
99,71
99,84
99,71
99,93
Japan
100,39
100,97
100,62
100,62
100,99
101,06
100,80
100,54
100,96
101,04
US
100,97
99,25
98,84
99,54
101,07
99,35
99,10
100,47
101,75
100,91
China
98,33
98,32
98,83
99,57
99,16
99,69
99,93
101,21
99,74
99,71
Taiwan
100,07
100,57
99,93
100,43
100,56
100,56
100,33
100,42
99,97
101,30
france
100,00
100,55
100,36
99,96
100,65
100,14
100,61
100,32
100,61
100,92
gremany
CPI iu chnh
100,00
99,11
97,90
96,77
98,28
96,77
95,69
96,31
96,93
95,99
Vietnam
100,00
100,18
100,35
100,35
101,14
100,99
101,85
102,32
102,87
102,71
Singapore
100,00
100,32
100,03
100,03
99,35
99,64
99,35
99,19
98,90
98,83
Japan
100,00
100,97
101,60
102,23
103,24
104,33
105,16
105,73
106,74
107,86
US
109
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
98,30
8,00
100,57
100,55
81,30
97,89
100,51
100,50
100,92
108,47
98,58
101,27
100,93
100,88
110,79
100,10
100,85
101,50
101,54
107,82
98,39
101,39
102,07
101,69
109,69
98,15
101,63
102,40
102,31
110,05
99,50
102,93
102,83
102,64
109,59
100,77
101,44
102,80
103,27
105,81
99,93
101,41
104,13
104,22
107,61
8025,60 10071,99 7577,07 7599,97 7587,75 7424,94 7418,97 7648,62 7634,50 7577,03
115,50
141,45
120,77
123,93
123,17
121,80
119,76
115,25
110,29
111,24
13872,17 17094,05 12865,51 12646,75 13034,65 12830,80 12828,50 13159,11 13748,68 13607,62
1679,00 2069,77 1558,54 1529,25 1575,46 1551,17 1559,98 1599,93 1660,57 1666,79
419,80
527,56
405,65
400,57
424,89
416,81
414,07
400,30
421,78
402,57
14933,50 17697,56 13758,61 12719,71 12459,67 12270,55 11321,36 12323,13 12140,37 11698,55
110
BNG TNH T GI THC A PHNG THEO QU - K GC: QU 1 -1999 (tt)
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
gremany
TC
Q3 2001
Q4 2001
Q1 2002
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
274,00
711,00
311,80
374,00
213,00
116,00
160,00
2159,80
105,00
452,00
313,20
142,00
156,00
235,50
401,30
1805,00
215,00
552,20
279,50
276,00
198,00
97,00
186,00
1803,70
244,00
477,80
512,50
378,00
183,00
123,00
160,00
2078,30
612,20
645,00
779,20
452,00
221,00
87,00
175,00
2971,40
198,40
571,10
823,60
747,00
641,00
186,00
315,00
3482,10
252,00
898,00
1046,80
326,00
155,00
101,00
200,00
2978,80
218,00
1133,00
1195,50
388,00
168,00
151,00
206,00
3459,50
301,00
59,00
1379,50
424,00
202,00
102,00
195,00
2662,50
253,00
819,00
933,10
610,00
224,00
142,00
254,00
3235,10
747,4
351
102,4
378
497,6
94
122,6
2293
556,7
321,5
135
764,4
648
162
184
2771,5
561
553
112,4
342,7
504
57
65
2195,1
723
581
124,6
504,3
617
141
158
2848,9
617
635
127,3
510
620
103
157
2769,3
388,7
518,4
215,7
701,1
567
94
136
2620,9
689
621
165,2
684
621
89
141
3010,2
948
1131
505,4
1109
974
126
192
4985,4
433
465
491,9
451
453
164
71
2528,9
808
777
161,9
878
868
113
206
3811,9
0,229
0,239
0,093
0,169
0,160
0,047
0,063
1,000
0,145
0,169
0,098
0,198
0,176
0,087
0,128
1,000
0,194
0,276
0,098
0,155
0,176
0,039
0,063
1,000
0,196
0,215
0,129
0,179
0,162
0,054
0,065
1,000
0,214
0,223
0,158
0,168
0,146
0,033
0,058
1,000
0,096
0,179
0,170
0,237
0,198
0,046
0,074
1,000
0,157
0,254
0,202
0,169
0,130
0,032
0,057
1,000
0,138
0,268
0,201
0,177
0,135
0,033
0,047
1,000
0,141
0,101
0,360
0,169
0,126
0,051
0,051
1,000
0,151
0,226
0,155
0,211
0,155
0,036
0,065
1,000
111
Ngoi t -VND
8499,80 8149,10 8276,80 8682,90 8636,50 8870,10 8746,60 8822,80 9000,30 9199,20
Singapore
125,80
114,40
114,50
128,30
126,30
128,50
128,50
129,30
139,90
146,09
Japan
14963,62 15046,56 15130,49 15237,50 15320,74 15373,67 15428,67 15467,28 15520,01 15616,50
US
1812,70 1822,40 1842,40 1851,00 1854,10 1860,90 1865,70 1872,40 1879,50 1890,37
China
433,80
434,80
435,50
450,80
443,70
442,00
444,70
447,60
457,60
454,59
Taiwan
13699,20 13293,50 13304,10 15282,80 15132,10 16153,10 16825,10 17710,70 18126,90 19760,89
France
13699,20 13293,50 13304,10 15282,80 15132,10 16153,10 16825,10 17710,70 18126,90 19760,89
gremany
T gi danh ngha
105,91
101,54
103,13
108,19
107,61
110,52
108,98
109,93
112,14
114,62
Singapore
108,92
99,05
99,13
111,08
109,35
111,26
111,26
111,95
121,13
126,48
Japan
107,87
108,47
109,07
109,84
110,44
110,82
111,22
111,50
111,88
112,57
US
107,96
108,54
109,73
110,24
110,43
110,83
111,12
111,52
111,94
112,59
China
103,33
103,57
103,74
107,38
105,69
105,29
105,93
106,62
109,00
108,29
Taiwan
91,73
89,02
89,09
102,34
101,33
108,17
112,67
118,60
121,38
132,33
France
91,73
89,02
89,09
102,34
101,33
108,17
112,67
118,60
121,38
132,33
gremany
CPI
99,14
99,76
102,74
103,21
103,40
104,18
106,67
106,82
106,33
106,86
Vietnam
101,12
100,54
100,40
100,69
100,69
100,70
101,08
100,84
101,17
101,35
Singapore
99,74
99,64
99,31
100,43
99,83
99,90
99,60
100,43
99,83
99,83
Japan
100,13
99,72
100,36
101,09
100,43
100,31
101,01
100,36
100,49
100,02
US
99,89
100,34
101,14
99,83
99,13
99,70
101,64
100,49
99,95
102,36
China
99,94
100,58
99,65
99,73
99,73
100,06
99,44
99,62
99,14
99,87
Taiwan
100,10
100,06
100,67
100,79
100,22
100,44
100,91
100,34
100,25
100,68
france
100,21
99,89
100,95
100,21
100,10
99,93
100,90
99,90
100,31
100,03
gremany
CPI iu chnh
95,93
96,52
99,41
99,87
100,05
100,81
103,22
103,36
102,89
103,40
Vietnam
102,72
102,12
101,98
102,28
102,28
102,28
102,67
102,43
102,76
102,95
Singapore
98,57
98,22
97,54
97,96
97,80
97,70
97,31
97,73
97,57
97,41
Japan
108,00
107,70
108,08
109,25
109,72
110,06
111,18
111,58
112,13
112,15
US
112
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
98,93
101,64
104,23
104,44
111,31
99,37
102,29
104,30
104,33
106,49
100,16
101,34
105,00
105,32
104,26
98,87
101,42
105,83
105,54
110,74
98,17
101,43
106,06
105,65
110,11
98,74
101,77
106,53
105,58
111,06
100,66
101,13
107,50
106,53
109,95
99,53
101,31
107,86
106,42
110,65
98,99
100,82
108,13
106,75
116,00
101,38
101,57
108,86
106,79
116,90
7635,87 7652,32 7938,79 7840,74 7843,81 7987,12 7955,36 7973,90 7758,81 7869,41
113,01
107,43
109,82
115,86
114,71
115,71
116,88
116,86
120,60
124,97
13442,69 14129,31 14512,60 13759,61 13914,55 13843,29 14032,96 13979,06 13379,20 13359,06
1628,45 1711,30 1767,16 1671,47 1683,92 1675,66 1696,92 1692,24 1620,24 1617,11
389,71
408,29
417,72
407,08
402,98
398,00
404,47
404,53
394,48
388,87
12306,79 12483,12 12760,79 13800,52 13743,23 14545,13 15303,06 16006,63 15626,50 16904,36
113
BNG TNH T GI THC A PHNG THEO QU - K GC: QU 1 -1999 (tt)
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
281,93
702,08
964,60
567,54
174,02
128,47
27,68
2846,33
313,16
796,78
1238,44
708,25
239,65
153,98
515,59
3965,84
402,03
991,94
1476,02
649,92
248,66
108,57
234,97
4112,13
372,89
1011,56
1313,26
809,79
243,53
165,97
287,95
4204,96
313,84
935,90
1134,56
608,24
197,92
132,85
258,36
3581,65
433,12
1097,14
1398,96
651,14
215,66
160,99
237,10
4194,10
529,30
1173,04
1760,76
803,89
263,29
143,13
260,30
4933,70
532,28
1205,11
1636,33
897,74
259,28
215,73
330,94
5077,41
314,39
1111,76
1802,24
666,12
204,80
162,26
343,61
4605,18
433,87
1303,30
2176,67
713,10
223,16
196,63
315,34
5362,09
828,3822
724,7576
158,7454
837,5526
700,3488
73,28347
133,9728
3457,043
836,714
820,5089
179,0184
1043,819
1011,464
91,75594
166,8183
4150,098
963,3972
920,8454
562,9912
1061,973
918,6842
269,9274
155,1621
4852,981
989,9683
1086,493
226,6402
1513,11
1067,515
182,0077
238,3943
5304,128
654,0055
701,2046
141,4928
944,9235
670,1011
61,53486
123,411
3296,673
922,4437
794,1379
167,9284
1222,959
908,4686
110,2312
117,4302
4243,599
1846,449
1728,143
355,4211
2432,292
1835,57
211,766
280,8412
8690,482
1060,02
850,8529
198,5399
1299,5
889,837
64,3632
141,0924
4504,206
1043,977
877,3849
197,697
1284,906
838,8938
70,33503
181,417
4494,611
1347,269
964,6845
251,652
1580,07
1054,35
104,0678
174,8176
5476,91
0,176
0,226
0,178
0,223
0,139
0,032
0,026
1,000
0,142
0,199
0,175
0,216
0,154
0,030
0,084
1,000
0,152
0,213
0,227
0,191
0,130
0,042
0,044
1,000
0,143
0,221
0,162
0,244
0,138
0,037
0,055
1,000
0,141
0,238
0,186
0,226
0,126
0,028
0,056
1,000
0,161
0,224
0,186
0,222
0,133
0,032
0,042
1,000
0,174
0,213
0,155
0,238
0,154
0,026
0,040
1,000
0,166
0,215
0,191
0,229
0,120
0,029
0,049
1,000
0,149
0,219
0,220
0,214
0,115
0,026
0,058
1,000
0,164
0,209
0,224
0,212
0,118
0,028
0,045
1,000
114
Ngoi t -VND
9365,10 9160,99 9318,07 9656,63 9590,86 9420,75 9410,34 9560,15 9924,22 10133,85
Singapore
150,76
145,07
141,94
151,53
147,40
143,63
140,48
134,86
136,66
139,63
Japan
15714,63 15732,78 15749,83 15762,59 15796,99 15844,26 15875,16 15905,49 15917,20 15961,13
US
1899,72 1899,69 1903,56 1906,24 1911,80 1915,91 1964,29 1971,45 1978,64 1985,86
China
476,89
467,50
462,82
496,25
502,16
501,07
478,98
484,68
490,45
496,29
Taiwan
19221,01 19111,30 19550,37 21489,87 20512,93 19174,29 19140,76 18769,03 19472,22 20377,26
france
19221,01 19111,30 19550,37 21489,87 20512,93 19174,29 19140,76 18769,03 19472,22 20377,26
gremany
T gi danh ngha
116,69
114,15
116,10
120,32
119,50
117,38
117,25
119,12
123,66
126,27
Singapore
130,53
125,60
122,89
131,19
127,62
124,36
121,63
116,77
118,32
120,89
Japan
113,28
113,41
113,54
113,63
113,88
114,22
114,44
114,66
114,74
115,06
US
113,15
113,14
113,37
113,53
113,87
114,11
116,99
117,42
117,85
118,28
China
113,60
111,36
110,25
118,21
119,62
119,36
114,10
115,46
116,83
118,22
Taiwan
128,71
127,98
130,92
143,90
137,36
128,40
128,17
125,68
130,39
136,45
france
128,71
127,98
130,92
143,90
137,36
128,40
128,17
125,68
130,39
136,45
gremany
CPI
111,19
114,44
116,65
117,43
121,27
123,67
125,44
127,30
131,34
132,89
Vietnam
102,32
102,75
103,09
103,03
102,59
102,81
103,57
104,17
103,99
104,04
Singapore
99,77
100,27
100,03
100,43
99,30
100,13
99,83
100,00
99,90
100,43
Japan
100,90
101,43
100,35
100,60
100,63
101,34
101,22
100,51
100,54
101,69
US
104,45
104,91
105,22
105,60
107,41
106,73
106,62
107,04
108,69
108,19
China
99,95
100,81
102,01
101,72
101,52
102,94
105,11
104,24
102,89
104,50
Taiwan
100,52
100,91
100,15
100,48
100,15
100,90
100,36
100,24
100,29
101,02
france
100,76
100,72
100,30
100,24
100,37
100,34
100,74
100,20
100,36
100,59
gremany
CPI iu chnh
107,59
110,73
112,87
113,63
117,34
119,66
121,37
123,18
127,08
128,59
Vietnam
103,93
104,37
104,72
104,65
104,20
104,43
105,20
105,81
105,62
105,68
Singapore
97,18
97,44
97,47
97,89
97,21
97,34
97,18
97,18
97,08
97,50
Japan
113,16
114,78
115,19
115,88
116,61
118,17
119,60
120,21
120,86
122,90
US
115
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
103,44
101,65
109,43
107,60
114,40
103,90
102,53
110,43
108,37
111,01
104,20
103,74
110,60
108,70
109,48
104,58
103,45
111,13
108,95
112,74
106,37
103,25
111,30
109,36
108,47
105,70
104,69
112,30
109,72
105,20
105,59
106,90
112,70
110,53
103,37
106,01
106,02
112,96
110,75
102,23
107,65
104,64
113,29
111,16
101,07
107,15
106,28
114,45
111,82
101,98
8186,08 8252,50 8510,82 8565,76 8841,99 8955,24 9103,77 9351,74 9819,22 9937,50
131,78
130,69
129,64
134,41
135,89
136,53
135,90
131,92
135,21
136,92
13736,25 14172,57 14385,38 13981,96 14563,53 15061,34 15357,98 15558,74 15748,79 15651,87
1660,56 1711,30 1738,65 1690,90 1762,52 1821,24 1900,29 1928,47 1957,71 1947,38
416,85
421,14
422,72
440,19
462,95
476,31
463,37
474,11
485,26
486,67
16801,19 17216,05 17856,67 19062,25 18911,25 18226,82 18517,18 18359,86 19266,21 19982,44
116
BNG TNH T GI THC A PHNG THEO QU - K GC: QU 1 -1999 (tt)
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
Gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
Gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
Gremany
TC
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
530,22
1393,47
2419,62
880,40
272,44
174,82
346,20
6017,17
533,22
1431,56
1446,57
983,17
268,30
263,49
440,14
5366,46
487,29
1332,12
2199,07
760,41
249,28
255,64
574,68
5858,49
491,75
1301,49
2364,06
791,39
266,94
171,97
330,64
5718,23
597,69
1507,56
2808,68
819,18
313,98
190,78
424,39
6662,27
625,26
1928,63
2717,29
985,72
309,20
266,02
525,39
7357,50
523,97
1971,46
2467,52
928,39
269,83
231,35
499,85
6892,37
840,89
2273,29
2960,84
1113,86
401,09
270,87
498,01
8358,85
867,24
2245,52
3363,46
1455,58
414,87
208,31
496,08
9051,06
427,63
2047,67
3076,69
1037,84
315,60
260,31
579,48
7745,21
2391,245
1842,069
274,433
2864,976
1893,244
174,4029
356,2346
9796,605
1491,409
1017,961
263,218
1661,348
1038,413
72,29427
202,0308
5746,675
2002,648
1274,153
330,251
3548,048
1888,672
517,8379
394,5654
9956,176
1501,365
1258,61
342,7243
1769,252
1157,608
98,92751
229,6812
6358,169
1820,764
1653,584
428,3481
2992,598
1659,457
271,4105
328,6363
9154,796
2283,823
1991,353
598,3766
4192,103
2210,863
267,1241
355,6171
11899,26
2546,494
1962,807
578,2482
4229,472
2107,818
208,737
389,569
12023,15
2837,871
2202,395
752,8169
4533,88
2387,957
175,1686
386,4262
13276,51
2415,22
2080,18
673,226
3533,153
2177,514
223,5348
440,2134
11543,04
1592,948
1995,28
630,9967
3355,621
1689,347
222,0051
263,7975
9749,995
0,185
0,205
0,170
0,237
0,137
0,022
0,044
1,000
0,182
0,220
0,154
0,238
0,118
0,030
0,058
1,000
0,157
0,165
0,160
0,272
0,135
0,049
0,061
1,000
0,165
0,212
0,224
0,212
0,118
0,022
0,046
1,000
0,153
0,200
0,205
0,241
0,125
0,029
0,048
1,000
0,151
0,204
0,172
0,269
0,131
0,028
0,046
1,000
0,162
0,208
0,161
0,273
0,126
0,023
0,047
1,000
0,170
0,207
0,172
0,261
0,129
0,021
0,041
1,000
0,159
0,210
0,196
0,242
0,126
0,021
0,045
1,000
0,115
0,231
0,212
0,251
0,115
0,028
0,048
1,000
117
Ngoi t -VND
10230,18
Singapore
139,23
Japan
16013,69
US
1993,10
China
502,20
Taiwan
20577,43
France
20577,43
Gremany
T gi danh ngha
127,47
Singapore
120,55
Japan
115,44
US
118,71
China
119,63
Taiwan
137,79
France
137,79
Gremany
CPI
134,59
Vietnam
104,34
Singapore
100,27
Japan
100,56
US
107,97
China
104,75
Taiwan
100,13
France
100,26
Gremany
CPI iu chnh
130,23
Vietnam
105,98
Singapore
97,76
Japan
123,59
US
10550,00
136,00
16071,00
2138,89
511,91
21234,00
21234,00
10654,00
137,00
16019,64
2162,95
504,60
21501,00
21501,00
10616,00
132,00
16069,49
2163,47
500,91
21836,00
21836,00
10895,00
140,00
16182,11
2177,51
500,08
22944,00
22944,00
11190,63
143,96
16061,94
2231,80
500,89
23784,54
23784,54
11825,23
163,78
15949,30
2342,12
539,83
25715,17
25715,17
12505,80
159,95
16270,60
2495,69
562,40
26896,67
26896,67
11676,20
160,07
16672,75
2469,46
525,16
24007,37
24007,37
12279,10
195,66
16904,18
2596,05
539,80
25000,88
25000,88
131,45
117,75
115,85
127,39
121,94
142,19
142,19
132,75
118,61
115,48
128,82
120,20
143,98
143,98
132,28
114,29
115,84
128,85
119,32
146,22
146,22
135,75
121,21
116,65
129,69
119,12
153,64
153,64
139,44
124,64
115,79
132,92
119,32
159,27
159,27
147,34
141,80
114,97
139,49
128,59
172,20
172,20
155,82
138,48
117,29
148,64
133,97
180,11
180,11
145,49
138,59
120,19
147,08
125,10
160,76
160,76
153,00
169,40
121,86
154,62
128,59
167,41
167,41
135,87
104,79
99,73
99,15
109,22
104,14
99,90
100,10
139,99
104,54
99,47
101,02
111,66
103,90
100,11
100,85
142,76
105,06
100,47
101,92
112,08
104,78
101,04
100,78
146,14
107,21
100,20
100,28
114,55
106,28
100,22
100,55
150,36
109,09
100,40
100,71
116,46
108,82
100,95
100,83
162,95
111,46
99,90
101,14
120,64
107,62
100,71
100,73
177,72
112,95
100,86
102,20
120,79
109,16
101,39
100,76
186,71
114,24
100,98
101,16
120,58
111,08
100,17
100,72
185,79
114,99
99,29
97,17
119,40
110,85
99,49
99,44
131,47
106,44
97,50
122,54
135,45
106,18
96,99
123,79
138,13
106,71
97,44
126,16
141,41
108,90
97,63
126,51
145,49
110,81
98,02
127,41
157,67
113,21
97,93
128,86
171,96
114,73
98,77
131,69
180,66
116,04
99,74
133,22
179,78
116,80
99,03
129,45
118
China
Taiwan
France
Gremany
REER
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
106,93
106,53
114,60
112,11
100,78
108,17
105,92
114,48
112,22
102,50
110,59
105,67
114,61
113,17
101,92
111,00
106,56
115,80
114,06
98,83
113,45
108,08
116,05
114,68
100,12
115,34
110,67
117,15
115,63
100,15
119,48
109,45
117,98
116,48
99,64
119,62
111,02
119,63
117,36
95,30
119,42
112,97
119,83
118,20
88,75
118,25
112,73
119,22
117,54
94,76
10151,14 10292,91 10453,09 10741,16 10882,02 11173,66 11867,41 13122,83 13155,60 12958,45
138,15
132,69
134,42
133,56
139,83
143,74
164,36
167,84
180,35
206,49
15889,97 15679,37 15717,54 16258,95 16162,83 16037,59 16006,19 17073,39 18785,23 17839,43
1977,70 2086,77 2122,16 2188,98 2174,91 2228,42 2350,47 2618,83 2782,35 2739,68
498,32
499,43
495,08
506,81
499,48
500,13
541,75
590,15
591,70
569,66
20418,45 20716,56 21095,54 22093,44 22916,66 23748,48 25806,90 28223,75 27049,16 26384,08
119
Bng 2.3d
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Ngoi t -VND
Singapore
Q2 2002
Q3 2002
Q4 2002
232,00
552,00
189,90
228,00
155,00
89,60
177,00
1623,50
204,00
624,00
180,20
582,40
208,00
132,40
121,50
2052,50
243,00
723,00
223,10
212,60
188,00
65,00
224,50
1879,20
207,00
723,00
228,10
511,00
205,00
105,00
207,00
2186,10
281,00
576,00
164,90
350,00
173,00
84,00
180,00
1808,90
283,00
674,00
263,30
444,00
199,00
126,00
173,00
2162,30
274,00
711,00
311,80
374,00
213,00
116,00
160,00
2159,80
105,00
452,00
313,20
142,00
156,00
235,50
401,30
1805,00
215,00
552,20
279,50
276,00
198,00
97,00
186,00
1803,70
244,00
477,80
512,50
378,00
183,00
123,00
160,00
2078,30
612,20
645,00
779,20
452,00
221,00
87,00
175,00
2971,40
198,40
571,10
823,60
747,00
641,00
186,00
315,00
3482,10
598,00
501,00
111,10
241,00
406,00
91,00
54,00
2002,10
963,00
700,00
92,50
281,00
486,00
56,00
48,00
2626,50
500,00
390,00
78,90
376,00
473,00
58,00
86,00
1961,90
699,00
660,00
85,00
525,00
531,00
86,00
107,00
2693,00
644,00
490,00
89,60
303,00
425,00
67,00
67,00
2085,60
367,60
792,00
133,40
402,00
533,40
90,00
98,40
2416,80
747,40
351,00
102,40
378,00
497,60
94,00
122,60
2293,00
556,70
321,50
135,00
764,40
648,00
162,00
184,00
2771,50
561,00
553,00
112,40
342,70
504,00
57,00
65,00
2195,10
723,00
581,00
124,60
504,30
617,00
141,00
158,00
2848,90
617,00
635,00
127,30
510,00
620,00
103,00
157,00
2769,30
388,70
518,40
215,70
701,10
567,00
94,00
136,00
2620,90
0,23
0,29
0,08
0,13
0,15
0,05
0,06
1,00
0,25
0,28
0,06
0,18
0,15
0,04
0,04
1,00
0,19
0,29
0,08
0,15
0,17
0,03
0,08
1,00
0,19
0,28
0,06
0,21
0,15
0,04
0,06
1,00
0,24
0,27
0,07
0,17
0,15
0,04
0,06
1,00
0,14
0,32
0,09
0,18
0,16
0,05
0,06
1,00
0,23
0,24
0,09
0,17
0,16
0,05
0,06
1,00
0,14
0,17
0,10
0,20
0,18
0,09
0,13
1,00
0,19
0,28
0,10
0,15
0,18
0,04
0,06
1,00
0,20
0,21
0,13
0,18
0,16
0,05
0,06
1,00
0,21
0,22
0,16
0,17
0,15
0,03
0,06
1,00
0,10
0,18
0,17
0,24
0,20
0,05
0,07
1,00
8180,80
8144,50
8164,80
8382,30
8078,30
8153,50
8499,80
8149,10
8276,80
8682,90
8636,50
8870,10
120
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
NER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
CPI
Vietnam
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
CPI iu
chnh
Vietnam
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
132,80
133,60
131,80
126,30
116,70
119,70
125,80
114,40
114,50
128,30
126,30
128,50
14053,42 14074,24 14118,15 14421,37 14547,89 14642,92 14963,62 15046,56 15130,49 15237,50 15320,74 15373,67
1698,60 1701,50 1716,80 1753,40 1757,10 1793,60 1812,70 1822,40 1842,40 1851,00 1854,10 1860,90
458,10
457,20
455,70
438,70
446,30
433,20
433,80
434,80
435,50
450,80
443,70
442,00
13433,50 13459,70 12459,50 13505,20 12846,10 12588,60 13699,20 13293,50 13304,10 15282,80 15132,10 16153,10
13433,50 13459,70 12459,50 13505,20 12846,10 12588,60 13699,20 13293,50 13304,10 15282,80 15132,10 16153,10
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
99,56
100,60
100,15
100,17
99,80
100,20
100,20
99,80
99,25
100,46
101,07
99,48
92,75
92,75
102,46
95,11
102,62
103,23
95,77
100,53
100,53
98,75
87,88
103,52
103,44
97,42
95,63
95,63
99,67
90,14
104,19
105,59
94,56
93,71
93,71
103,90
94,73
106,48
106,72
94,70
101,98
101,98
99,61
86,14
107,07
107,29
94,91
98,96
98,96
101,17
86,22
107,66
108,47
95,07
99,04
99,04
106,14
96,61
108,43
108,97
98,41
113,77
113,77
105,57
95,11
109,02
109,15
96,86
112,64
112,64
108,43
96,76
109,39
109,55
96,49
120,24
120,24
101,57
99,57
99,32
100,99
101,07
99,16
100,56
100,65
100,01
99,42
100,29
101,06
99,35
99,69
100,56
100,14
98,89
100,27
99,71
100,80
99,10
99,93
100,33
100,61
99,53
100,74
99,84
100,54
100,47
101,21
100,42
100,32
100,17
101,27
99,71
100,96
101,75
99,74
99,97
100,61
99,20
101,12
99,93
101,04
100,91
99,71
101,30
100,92
99,14
101,12
99,74
100,13
99,89
99,94
100,10
100,21
99,76
100,54
99,64
99,72
100,34
100,58
100,06
99,89
102,74
100,40
99,31
100,36
101,14
99,65
100,67
100,95
103,21
100,69
100,43
101,09
99,83
99,73
100,79
100,21
103,40
100,69
99,83
100,43
99,13
99,73
100,22
100,10
104,18
100,70
99,90
100,31
99,70
100,06
100,44
99,93
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
98,46
99,85
100,98
100,07
98,29
100,53
97,37
100,71
100,39
99,81
98,05
100,78
98,00
101,17
100,52
99,55
99,40
102,06
98,63
101,71
100,39
99,97
100,66
100,58
97,67
101,56
100,62
100,05
99,83
100,55
97,61
101,56
100,42
99,15
98,83
100,79
98,22
100,97
100,32
98,74
99,27
101,43
101,15
100,83
99,99
99,37
100,06
100,49
101,62
101,13
101,12
100,10
98,77
100,57
101,81
101,13
100,52
99,44
98,07
100,57
102,58
101,13
100,58
99,33
98,64
100,91
121
france
gremany
RER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
100,00
100,00
100,00
99,49
99,77
99,96
99,86
99,67
99,41
99,95
100,73
100,27
99,54
99,56
99,51
99,24
100,11
100,29
100,23
99,56
99,66
99,45
99,88
99,28
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,00
100,96
103,17
101,78
100,00
101,90
101,75
101,24
101,64
103,23
102,33
102,98
101,78
102,96
95,03
95,22
101,77
105,78
97,55
104,25
104,71
99,74
102,45
102,25
101,85
101,83
89,44
104,92
105,58
99,36
96,38
96,91
98,37
103,63
92,86
106,74
107,93
97,35
96,65
96,20
99,47
108,10
97,45
108,15
108,04
97,77
103,99
104,01
103,45
102,41
87,99
107,64
108,44
98,02
100,25
99,99
100,41
100,86
85,23
105,77
107,30
94,44
98,02
98,20
96,61
105,63
96,14
106,80
105,91
97,39
112,21
111,46
103,18
104,86
93,90
106,48
105,15
95,68
110,27
110,04
101,85
106,90
94,88
105,93
105,35
94,92
117,08
116,38
103,02
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
8180,80 8013,31 8022,90 8229,84 8212,29 8196,79 8216,01 8115,66 8567,02 8415,00 8479,25 8610,19
132,80
131,45
129,51
124,00
118,64
120,34
121,60
113,93
118,51
124,34
124,00
124,73
14053,42 13847,54 13872,78 14159,06 14789,19 14720,66 14464,01 14984,82 15661,03 14767,36 15041,78 14923,19
1698,60 1674,09 1686,96 1721,51 1786,24 1803,12 1752,18 1814,92 1907,00 1793,89 1820,34 1806,37
458,10
449,84
447,78
430,72
453,70
435,50
419,32
433,02
450,77
436,89
435,62
429,05
13433,50 13242,90 12242,96 13259,56 13059,17 12655,44 13241,81 13238,96 13770,60 14811,26 14856,57 15679,78
122
BNG TNH T GI THC A PHNG THEO QU - K GC: QU 1 - 2000 (tt)
Q1 2003
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Ngoi t -VND
Singapore
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
252,00
898,00
1046,80
326,00
155,00
101,00
200,00
2978,80
218,00
1133,00
1195,50
388,00
168,00
151,00
206,00
3459,50
301,00
59,00
1379,50
424,00
202,00
102,00
195,00
2662,50
253,00
819,00
933,10
610,00
224,00
142,00
254,00
3235,10
281,93
702,08
964,60
567,54
174,02
128,47
27,68
2846,33
313,16
796,78
1238,44
708,25
239,65
153,98
515,59
3965,84
402,03
991,94
1476,02
649,92
248,66
108,57
234,97
4112,13
372,89
1011,56
1313,26
809,79
243,53
165,97
287,95
4204,96
313,84
935,90
1134,56
608,24
197,92
132,85
258,36
3581,65
433,12
1097,14
1398,96
651,14
215,66
160,99
237,10
4194,10
529,30
1173,04
1760,76
803,89
263,29
143,13
260,30
4933,70
532,28
1205,11
1636,33
897,74
259,28
215,73
330,94
5077,41
689,00
621,00
165,20
684,00
621,00
89,00
141,00
3010,20
948,00
1131,00
505,40
1109,00
974,00
126,00
192,00
4985,40
433,00
465,00
491,90
451,00
453,00
164,00
71,00
2528,90
808,00
777,00
161,90
878,00
868,00
113,00
206,00
3811,90
828,38
724,76
158,75
837,55
700,35
73,28
133,97
3457,04
836,71
820,51
179,02
1043,82
1011,46
91,76
166,82
4150,10
963,40
920,85
562,99
1061,97
918,68
269,93
155,16
4852,98
989,97
1086,49
226,64
1513,11
1067,51
182,01
238,39
5304,13
654,01
701,20
141,49
944,92
670,10
61,53
123,41
3296,67
922,44
794,14
167,93
1222,96
908,47
110,23
117,43
4243,60
1846,45
1728,14
355,42
2432,29
1835,57
211,77
280,84
8690,48
1060,02
850,85
198,54
1299,50
889,84
64,36
141,09
4504,21
0,16
0,25
0,20
0,17
0,13
0,03
0,06
1,00
0,14
0,27
0,20
0,18
0,14
0,03
0,05
1,00
0,14
0,10
0,36
0,17
0,13
0,05
0,05
1,00
0,15
0,23
0,16
0,21
0,15
0,04
0,07
1,00
0,18
0,23
0,18
0,22
0,14
0,03
0,03
1,00
0,14
0,20
0,17
0,22
0,15
0,03
0,08
1,00
0,15
0,21
0,23
0,19
0,13
0,04
0,04
1,00
0,14
0,22
0,16
0,24
0,14
0,04
0,06
1,00
0,14
0,24
0,19
0,23
0,13
0,03
0,06
1,00
0,16
0,22
0,19
0,22
0,13
0,03
0,04
1,00
0,17
0,21
0,16
0,24
0,15
0,03
0,04
1,00
0,17
0,21
0,19
0,23
0,12
0,03
0,05
1,00
8746,60
8822,80
9000,30
9199,20
9365,10
9160,99
9318,07
9656,63
9590,86
9420,75
9410,34
9560,15
123
128,50
129,30
139,90
146,09
150,76
145,07
141,94
151,53
147,40
143,63
140,48
Japan
15428,67 15467,28 15520,01 15616,50 15714,63 15732,78 15749,83 15762,59 15796,99 15844,26 15875,16
US
1865,70 1872,40 1879,50 1890,37 1899,72 1899,69 1903,56 1906,24 1911,80 1915,91 1964,29
China
444,70
447,60
457,60
454,59
476,89
467,50
462,82
496,25
502,16
501,07
478,98
Taiwan
16825,10 17710,70 18126,90 19760,89 19221,01 19111,30 19550,37 21489,87 20512,93 19174,29 19140,76
france
16825,10 17710,70 18126,90 19760,89 19221,01 19111,30 19550,37 21489,87 20512,93 19174,29 19140,76
gremany
NER
106,92
107,85
110,02
112,45
114,48
111,98
113,90
118,04
117,24
115,16
115,03
Singapore
96,76
97,36
105,35
110,01
113,52
109,24
106,88
114,10
110,99
108,16
105,78
Japan
109,79
110,06
110,44
111,12
111,82
111,95
112,07
112,16
112,41
112,74
112,96
US
109,84
110,23
110,65
111,29
111,84
111,84
112,07
112,22
112,55
112,79
115,64
China
97,07
97,71
99,89
99,23
104,10
102,05
101,03
108,33
109,62
109,38
104,56
Taiwan
125,25
131,84
134,94
147,10
143,08
142,27
145,53
159,97
152,70
142,73
142,49
france
125,25
131,84
134,94
147,10
143,08
142,27
145,53
159,97
152,70
142,73
142,49
gremany
CPI
106,67
106,82
106,33
106,86
111,19
114,44
116,65
117,43
121,27
123,67
125,44
Vietnam
101,08
100,84
101,17
101,35
102,32
102,75
103,09
103,03
102,59
102,81
103,57
Singapore
99,60
100,43
99,83
99,83
99,77
100,27
100,03
100,43
99,30
100,13
99,83
Japan
101,01
100,36
100,49
100,02
100,90
101,43
100,35
100,60
100,63
101,34
101,22
US
101,64
100,49
99,95
102,36
104,45
104,91
105,22
105,60
107,41
106,73
106,62
China
99,44
99,62
99,14
99,87
99,95
100,81
102,01
101,72
101,52
102,94
105,11
Taiwan
100,91
100,34
100,25
100,68
100,52
100,91
100,15
100,48
100,15
100,90
100,36
france
100,90
99,90
100,31
100,03
100,76
100,72
100,30
100,24
100,37
100,34
100,74
gremany
CPI iu chnh
105,03
105,17
104,69
105,21
109,48
112,68
114,85
115,62
119,40
121,76
123,50
Vietnam
101,51
101,28
101,60
101,79
102,76
103,20
103,54
103,48
103,03
103,26
104,02
Singapore
100,28
101,12
100,52
100,52
100,45
100,95
100,72
101,12
99,99
100,82
100,52
Japan
100,02
99,38
99,50
99,04
99,91
100,44
99,37
99,61
99,64
100,34
100,22
US
100,56
99,43
98,89
101,27
103,34
103,80
104,10
104,47
106,27
105,60
105,48
China
100,28
100,46
99,97
100,72
100,79
101,66
102,87
102,58
102,38
103,81
105,99
Taiwan
100,34
99,78
99,69
100,12
99,96
100,35
99,59
99,92
99,59
100,34
99,80
france
100,25
99,25
99,66
99,38
100,10
100,06
99,65
99,58
99,72
99,68
100,08
gremany
134,86
15905,49
1971,45
484,68
18769,03
18769,03
116,86
101,55
113,18
116,06
105,80
139,72
139,72
127,30
104,17
100,00
100,51
107,04
104,24
100,24
100,20
125,34
104,62
100,68
99,52
105,90
105,12
99,68
99,55
124
RER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
103,34
92,39
104,55
105,16
92,68
119,66
119,55
101,18
103,86
93,61
104,00
104,21
93,33
125,08
124,41
101,44
106,77
101,14
104,96
104,52
95,39
128,49
128,45
105,96
108,79
105,10
104,60
107,13
94,99
139,98
138,96
107,91
107,45
104,16
102,05
105,57
95,84
130,64
130,83
105,05
102,56
97,88
99,79
103,03
92,08
126,70
126,34
102,36
102,69
93,73
96,97
101,58
90,49
126,20
126,28
99,69
105,64
99,79
96,63
101,40
96,10
138,25
137,78
103,51
101,17
92,95
93,81
100,17
93,99
127,37
127,53
98,92
97,66
89,55
92,91
97,82
93,25
117,62
116,85
95,86
96,88
86,09
91,67
98,77
89,74
115,14
115,46
94,34
97,55
81,58
89,87
98,07
88,74
111,11
110,97
92,77
8644,96 8697,41 8494,25 8524,68 8914,48 8949,90 9346,76 9328,95 9695,64 9827,92 9975,25
127,01
127,46
132,03
135,38
143,50
141,73
142,37
146,39
149,01
149,84
148,91
15249,39 15247,46 14647,37 14471,45 14958,49 15370,26 15798,32 15227,71 15969,58 16529,06 16828,17
1844,02 1845,79 1773,82 1751,76 1808,31 1855,92 1909,42 1841,56 1932,69 1998,71 2082,20
439,53
441,24
431,87
421,26
453,94
456,73
464,24
479,41
507,65
522,73
507,73
16629,59 17459,00 17107,69 18311,95 18296,16 18670,94 19610,56 20760,65 20737,04 20003,01 20289,80
10305,02
145,37
17144,74
2125,05
522,44
20231,40
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
125
BNG TNH T GI THC A PHNG THEO QU - K GC: QU 1 - 2000 (tt)
Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
Xut khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Nhp khu
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
Tng cng
T trng
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
TC
Ngoi t -VND
314,39 433,87 530,22 533,22 487,29 491,75 597,69 625,26 523,97 840,89 867,24
1111,76 1303,30 1393,47 1431,56 1332,12 1301,49 1507,56 1928,63 1971,46 2273,29 2245,52
1802,24 2176,67 2419,62 1446,57 2199,07 2364,06 2808,68 2717,29 2467,52 2960,84 3363,46
666,12 713,10 880,40 983,17 760,41 791,39 819,18 985,72 928,39 1113,86 1455,58
204,80 223,16 272,44 268,30 249,28 266,94 313,98 309,20 269,83 401,09 414,87
162,26 196,63 174,82 263,49 255,64 171,97 190,78 266,02 231,35 270,87 208,31
343,61 315,34 346,20 440,14 574,68 330,64 424,39 525,39 499,85 498,01 496,08
4605,18 5362,09 6017,17 5366,46 5858,49 5718,23 6662,27 7357,50 6892,37 8358,85 9051,06
427,63
2047,67
3076,69
1037,84
315,60
260,31
579,48
7745,21
1043,98
877,38
197,70
1284,91
838,89
70,34
181,42
4494,61
1347,27
964,68
251,65
1580,07
1054,35
104,07
174,82
5476,91
2391,25
1842,07
274,43
2864,98
1893,24
174,40
356,23
9796,60
1491,41
1017,96
263,22
1661,35
1038,41
72,29
202,03
5746,67
2002,65
1274,15
330,25
3548,05
1888,67
517,84
394,57
9956,18
1501,37
1258,61
342,72
1769,25
1157,61
98,93
229,68
6358,17
1820,76
1653,58
428,35
2992,60
1659,46
271,41
328,64
9154,80
2283,82
1991,35
598,38
4192,10
2210,86
267,12
355,62
11899,26
2546,49
1962,81
578,25
4229,47
2107,82
208,74
389,57
12023,15
2837,87
2202,39
752,82
4533,88
2387,96
175,17
386,43
13276,51
2415,22
2080,18
673,23
3533,15
2177,51
223,53
440,21
11543,04
1592,95
1995,28
631,00
3355,62
1689,35
222,01
263,80
9750,00
0,15
0,22
0,22
0,21
0,11
0,03
0,06
0,16
0,21
0,22
0,21
0,12
0,03
0,05
0,18
0,20
0,17
0,24
0,14
0,02
0,04
0,18
0,22
0,15
0,24
0,12
0,03
0,06
0,16
0,16
0,16
0,27
0,14
0,05
0,06
0,17
0,21
0,22
0,21
0,12
0,02
0,05
0,15
0,20
0,20
0,24
0,12
0,03
0,05
0,15
0,20
0,17
0,27
0,13
0,03
0,05
0,16
0,21
0,16
0,27
0,13
0,02
0,05
0,17
0,21
0,17
0,26
0,13
0,02
0,04
0,16
0,21
0,20
0,24
0,13
0,02
0,05
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,12
0,23
0,21
0,25
0,11
0,03
0,05
1,00
126
9924,22 10133,85 10230,18 10550,00
Singapore
136,66 139,63 139,23 136,00
Japan
15917,20 15961,13 16013,69 16071,00
US
1978,64 1985,86 1993,10 2138,89
China
490,45 496,29 502,20 511,91
Taiwan
19472,22 20377,26 20577,43 21234,00
france
19472,22 20377,26 20577,43 21234,00
gremany
NER
121,31 123,87 125,05 128,96
Singapore
102,91 105,14 104,84 102,41
Japan
113,26 113,57 113,95 114,36
US
116,49 116,91 117,34 125,92
China
107,06 108,34 109,63 111,75
Taiwan
144,95 151,69 153,18 158,07
france
144,95 151,69 153,18 158,07
gremany
CPI
131,34 132,89 134,59 135,87
Vietnam
103,99 104,04 104,34 104,79
Singapore
99,90 100,43 100,27
99,73
Japan
100,54 101,69 100,56
99,15
US
108,69 108,19 107,97 109,22
China
102,89 104,50 104,75 104,14
Taiwan
100,29 101,02 100,13
99,90
france
100,36 100,59 100,26 100,10
gremany
CPI iu chnh
129,31 130,84 132,51 133,78
Vietnam
104,44 104,49 104,79 105,24
Singapore
100,58 101,12 100,95 100,42
Japan
99,55 100,69
99,57
98,18
US
107,54 107,04 106,82 108,06
China
103,76 105,38 105,63 105,02
Taiwan
10654,00
137,00
16019,64
2162,95
504,60
21501,00
21501,00
10616,00
132,00
16069,49
2163,47
500,91
21836,00
21836,00
10895,00
140,00
16182,11
2177,51
500,08
22944,00
22944,00
11190,63
143,96
16061,94
2231,80
500,89
23784,54
23784,54
11825,23
163,78
15949,30
2342,12
539,83
25715,17
25715,17
12505,80
159,95
16270,60
2495,69
562,40
26896,67
26896,67
11676,20
160,07
16672,75
2469,46
525,16
24007,37
24007,37
12279,10
195,66
16904,18
2596,05
539,80
25000,88
25000,88
130,23
103,16
113,99
127,34
110,15
160,06
160,06
129,77
99,40
114,35
127,37
109,34
162,55
162,55
133,18
105,42
115,15
128,19
109,16
170,80
170,80
136,79
108,40
114,29
131,39
109,34
177,05
177,05
144,55
123,33
113,49
137,89
117,84
191,43
191,43
152,87
120,44
115,78
146,93
122,77
200,22
200,22
142,73
120,53
118,64
145,38
114,64
178,71
178,71
150,10
147,33
120,29
152,83
117,83
186,11
186,11
139,99
104,54
99,47
101,02
111,66
103,90
100,11
100,85
142,76
105,06
100,47
101,92
112,08
104,78
101,04
100,78
146,14
107,21
100,20
100,28
114,55
106,28
100,22
100,55
150,36
109,09
100,40
100,71
116,46
108,82
100,95
100,83
162,95
111,46
99,90
101,14
120,64
107,62
100,71
100,73
177,72
112,95
100,86
102,20
120,79
109,16
101,39
100,76
186,71
114,24
100,98
101,16
120,58
111,08
100,17
100,72
185,79
114,99
99,29
97,17
119,40
110,85
99,49
99,44
137,83
104,99
100,15
100,03
110,48
104,78
140,56
105,51
101,16
100,92
110,89
105,66
143,89
107,67
100,89
99,29
113,34
107,17
148,04
109,57
101,09
99,72
115,22
109,73
160,44
111,94
100,59
100,14
119,36
108,53
174,98
113,44
101,55
101,19
119,50
110,08
183,83
114,73
101,68
100,17
119,30
112,02
182,93
115,49
99,97
96,22
118,13
111,78
127
france
gremany
RER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
france
gremany
REER
99,73
99,71
100,46
99,94
99,57
99,61
99,34
99,45
99,55
100,19
100,48
100,12
99,66
99,89
100,39
100,18
100,15
100,07
100,83
100,10
99,61
100,06
98,94
98,79
97,97
80,04
87,20
96,87
85,90
111,79
111,77
91,21
98,93
81,26
87,41
95,64
87,26
116,47
115,86
91,83
98,89
79,87
85,63
94,59
87,39
115,10
115,15
91,23
101,46
76,87
83,92
101,71
87,73
117,38
117,51
93,20
99,20
74,96
82,73
102,07
83,74
115,61
116,35
93,12
97,41
71,54
82,10
100,49
82,20
116,20
115,79
88,63
99,66
73,91
79,46
100,97
81,31
118,29
118,57
89,85
101,24
74,02
76,99
102,27
81,05
120,06
119,81
90,53
100,86
77,32
70,84
102,58
79,72
119,49
119,40
90,25
99,11
69,90
66,96
100,34
77,24
115,37
114,54
86,02
89,08
66,67
64,65
94,35
69,86
96,84
97,28
78,98
94,76
80,51
63,27
98,70
72,01
100,66
100,51
83,62
10880,09
149,82
17450,29
2169,22
537,69
21347,72
11035,22
152,05
17380,82
2162,49
540,43
22189,75
11214,07
152,62
17553,82
2184,79
550,50
22556,48
11320,32
145,93
17244,44
2295,06
549,29
22784,42
11441,51
147,13
17203,76
2322,83
541,89
23090,29
11978,45
148,94
18131,85
2441,13
565,19
24638,43
12125,58
155,81
18009,86
2423,46
556,56
25535,49
12361,52
159,02
17742,52
2465,32
553,30
26273,14
13103,30
181,48
17673,10
2595,26
598,17
28494,46
14538,91
185,95
18915,77
2901,42
653,83
31269,34
14784,47
202,68
21111,13
3126,84
664,96
30398,26
14685,21
234,00
20216,59
3104,75
645,57
29899,85
T gi quy i
theo REER
Singapore
Japan
US
China
Taiwan
France
128
Coefficient
C
RATE
-55710,32
4,079942
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0,688954
0,680769
2271,25
1,96E+08
-364,8551
0,172436
Std. Error
6848,803
0,444712
t-Statistic
Prob.
-8,13431
9,17434
0
0
7036,5
4019,873
18,34276
18,4272
84,16852
0
Coefficient
C
RATE
-72434,37
5,232647
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0,616383
0,606288
3420,101
4,44E+08
-381,2287
0,278132
Std. Error
10313
0,6697
(-8,13431)
4,0799*RATE (2.1)
(9,17434)
-7,023539
7,813909
t-Statistic
Prob.
0
0
8040,3
5450,667
19,16143
19,24588
61,05718
0
129
R2 = 0,688954
IM = 72434
(-7,0235)
5,2326*RATE (2.2)
(7,8139)
R2 = 0,6063
Bng 2.6a: Kt qu hi quy t s xut trn nhp khu theo t gi thc song
VND/USD v ch s GDP.
Dependent Variable: LNEXM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/15/09 Time: 20:30
Sample(adjusted): 2000:1 2008:3
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
C
LNGDPUS
LNGDPVN
LNRERUS
41.69391
-0.34015
-8.15087
0.557508
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.318082
0.25209
0.178864
0.991764
12.70047
2.157452
32.17557
6.428596
3.642943
0.222183
t-Statistic
Prob.
1.295825
-0.052911
-2.237441
2.509232
0.2046
0.9581
0.0326
0.0175
4.531902
0.206823
-0.49717
-0.31942
4.82001
0.00721
(-2,2374)
(2,5092)
R2 = 0,3181
M hnh gii hn:
Ln(EXM)t = 0 + 2ln(GDPvn t-1) + 3lnRERus t-1 + t
Bng 2.6b: Kt qu m hnh hi quy gii hn.
Dependent Variable: LNEXM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/15/09 Time: 16:28
Sample(adjusted): 2000:1 2008:3
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints
(2.3b)
130
Variable
Coefficient
C
LNRERUS
LNGDPVN
Std. Error
40,2525
0,556199
-8,176725
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
t-Statistic
16,85237
0,217332
3,55333
0,318021
0,275397
0,176055
0,991853
12,69889
2,148528
Prob.
2,388537
2,559212
-2,30114
0,023
0,0154
0,028
4,531902
0,206823
-0,554222
-0,420907
7,461122
0,002189
(2,5592)
R2 = 0,3180
Bng 2.7a: Kt qu hi quy t s xut khu trn nhp khu theo ch s GDP v
REER
M hnh ban u
Dependent Variable: LNEXM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/14/09 Time: 12:27
Sample: 2000:1 2008:4
Included observations: 36
Variable
Coefficient
C
LNGDPW
LNGDPVN
LNREER
Std. Error
16,59485
-4,763127
0,109454
1,077866
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0,313252
0,248869
0,17664
0,99845
13,44947
2,143505
15,49755
1,899706
3,765524
0,415952
t-Statistic
1,070805
-2,507297
0,029067
2,591322
Prob.
0,2923
0,0174
0,977
0,0143
-0,07261
0,203812
-0,52497
-0,349024
4,865463
0,006714
(-2,5073)
(0,1095)
(2,5913)
131
Coefficient
C
LNGDPW
LNREER
Std. Error
16,98252
-4,736188
1,07769
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0,313233
0,271611
0,173945
0,998477
13,44899
2,144648
7,772375
1,632991
0,409564
t-Statistic
2,184985
-2,900315
2,631314
Prob.
0,0361
0,0066
0,0128
-0,07261
0,203812
-0,5805
-0,44854
7,525629
0,002029
(-2,9003)
(2,6313)
R2 = 0,3132
Bng 2.9: Kt qu hi quy REER theo chnh lch lm pht
Dependent Variable: REER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/31/09 Time: 18:11
Sample: 1999:1 2008:4
Included observations: 40
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
132
C
PW
PVN
20,02666
1,337543
-0,471191
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0,809834
0,799555
3,232011
386,4981
-102,1225
0,84554
12,18652
0,148433
0,03806
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1,643345
9,011067
-12,38015
0,1088
0
0
105,282
7,21896
5,25613
5,38279
78,7834
0
Sau khi hi quy chui d liu t nm 1999 n 2008 theo qu (40 quan st), kt qu
v m hnh hi quy nh sau:
REER = 20,0267 +
(1,6433)
R2 = 0,8098
(-12,3801)