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Quy lut li th tuyt i : Gi s c 2 quc gia m mi quc gia c mt li th tuyt i so vi quc gia kia trong vic sn xut mt hng ha th c 2 quc gia s u c li hn nu i vo chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu hng ha m n c li th tuyt i v nhp khu hng ha m n khng c li th tuyt i. C s xc nh LTT l nng sut lao ng cao nht ( hay chi ph sn xut tuyt i thp nht ) . V d : Quy lut li th tuyt i : Nng sut lao ng M Brazil My tnh 6 1 Cafe 4 5 Gi s lao ng l yu t sn xut duy nht , t l trao i hng ha : 1 My tnh = 3 Cafe Nu thng qua thng mi , li ch thng mi ca 2 quc gia nh th no ? Gii : C s thng mi : Li th tuyt i : M c LTT v my tnh v 6 > 1 v khng c LTT v Caf Brazil c LTT v Caf v 5 > 4 v khng c LTT v my tnh Quy lut thng mi : M c LTT v my tnh, M s CMH SX, XK my tnh v NK Caf Brazil c LTT v Caf , Barazil s CMH SX, XK Caf v NK my tnh . Xc nh li ch thng mi : B 1 : Xc nh t l trao i quc t : M : P ( 6 MT ) = P ( 4 CF ) ( MT / CF ) M = 4 / 6 Brazil : P ( 5 CF) = P ( 1 MT ) ( CF / MT )Brazil = 5 / 1. T l trao i quc t : 4/6 < MT / CF < 5/1 Gi s t l trao i hng ha : 1 MT = 3 CF ( MT / CF = 3/1 ) , ta c : Li ch TM M ( nc nhp khu Cafe ) : Nu khng tham gia TMQT m t sn xut ra 1 n v cafe mt 1/4 vl T sn xut ra 1 n v my tnh mt 1/6 vl. Khi thng qua thng mi, t l trao i 1 MT = 3 CF <=> 1 CF = 1/3 MT => sn xut 1 n v Cafe , M cn : 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18 vl Li ch thng mi Brazil ( nc nhp khu My tnh ) : T sn xut ra 1 n v my tnh mt 1 vl T sn xut ra 1 n v cafe mt 1/5 vl . Khi thng qua thng mi, t l trao i 1 MT = 3 CF => sn xut 1 n v my tnh, Brazil cn : 3 x 1/5 = 3/5 vl KL : M s chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu my tnh v nhp khu cafe t Brazil Brazil s chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu Cafe v nhp khu my tnh t M. nh gi t tng li th tuyt i ca Adam Smith : Tin b : L thuyt li th tuyt i chng minh c li ch ca thng mi l cho c 2 quc gia tham gia vo thng mi quc t. Nhn thc c tnh u vit ca cng nghip ha sn xut l tit kim lao ng v tng sn lng hng ha . Hn ch : L thuyt li th tuyt i ch gii thch c 1 phn nh ca thng mi quc t , c th : Ch gii thch c thng mi trong trng hp 2 quc gia m mi quc gia phi c 1 li th tuyt i so vi quc gia kia cn trong trng hp mt quc gia so vi quc gia khc khng c li th tuyt i g th thng mi hai nc s nh th no th quyt li th tuyt i ko gii thch c. Da trn gi nh lao ng l yu t sn xut duy nht . Nhn xt : - C s TM : Thng mi da trn c s lao ng tuyt i - M hnh TM : Mi quc gia s xut khu sn phm c LTT v nhp khu sn phm ko c LTT - Gi trao i : nm trong khong chnh lch gi ni a - Li ch TM : TM mang li li ch cho cc bn tham gia ( tr chi c kt cc dng ) - Chuyn mn ha : mi quc gia s chuyn mn ha hon ton vo SP c LTT - Chnh sch ca nh nc : Nh nc khng nn can thip vo thng mi
III. L thuyt Li th tng i ca D. Ricardo : Ricardo cho rng c s ca TMQT khng phi l li th tuyt i m l li th tng i ( li th so snh ) M hnh Ricardo : Th gii ch c 2 nc v sn xut 2 loi hng ha ( n gin ha m hnh , d phn tch v a ra kt lun ) Thng mi l t do ha hon ton gia 2 quc gia ( tru tng li ch ca TMQT ) Chi ph sn xut khng thay i ( CP c hi, CP cn bin ko i ) Chi ph vn ti = 0 ( khng lm tng CP SX ) Lao ng c th di chuyn t do trong nc , nhng khng c php di chuyn gia cc nc Tha nhn l thuyt gi tr lao ng ( tnh gi c hng ha = thi gian lao ng c kt to ra SP ) Khi nim v LTSS : Mt quc gia s c li th so snh so vi quc gia khc trong sn xut mt hng ha khi n sn xut hng ha vi chi ph tng i l thp hn quc gia kia . C s xc nh LTSS : CPSX tng i thp VD : NSL QG1 QG 2 SP A a1 a2 SP B b1 b2 QG 1 xut khu SP A v NK SP B khi : a1 / b1 > a2 / b2 QG 2 XK SP B v NK SP A khi b2 / a2 > b1 / a1 Quy lut li th so snh : Cc quc gia s u c li hn khi i vo CMH sn xut v XK mt hng m h c li th so snh v NK nhng mt hng m h khng c li th so snh. C s xc nh LTSS l chi ph sn xut tng i thp ( nng sut lao ng tng i cao ) V d : NSL M Brazil MT 6 1 Caf 4 2 C s TM : Li th so snh : M c LTSS v my tnh so vi Brazil v 6 > 4 v khng c LTSS v Caf Brazil c LTSS v Caf so vi M v 2 > 1 v khng c LTSS v My tnh Quy lut TM : ( m hnh TM ) : M c LTSS v my tnh M s CMH SX , XK my tnh , NK Caf Brazil c LTSS v Caf Brazil s CMH SX , XK Caf, NK my tnh . Xc nh li ch TM : Gi s t l trao i quc t : 1 Caf = 1 my tnh Ti M : Nu t SX , chi ph SX 1 n v Caf l 1/ 4 n v lao ng Nu thng qua TM , chi ph c 1 n v Caf l 1 / 6 n v lao ng Ti Brazil : Nu t SX , chi ph SX 1 n v my tnh l 1 n v lao ng Nu thng qua TM, chi ph c 1 n v my tnh l 1 /2 n v lao ng Nh vy, c M v Anh u c li hn do tit kim chi ph sn xut nh gi l thuyt LTSS ca Ricardo : Tin b : - L thuyt LTSS mang tnh khi qut hn LTT - L thuyt LTSS chng minh c s ca TMQT l s khc bit v LTSS trong sn xut 1 hng ha no Hn ch : - Trong chi ph sn xut mi ch tnh n 1 yu t duy nht l yu t lao ng do khng tm ra c nguyn nhn s khc nhau v NSL gia cc nc - L thuyt LTSS ng nht cc loi hot ng - Trng hp c bit : Khi NSL ca c 2 quc gia bng nhau th TMQT gia 2 quc gia s khng xy ra chnh v vy trong TH 1 quc gia c bt c 1 LTT no v c 2 mt hng th QG vn c li ch khi tham gia TMQT ngoi tr vic bt LT tng i ny c t l ging nhau c 2 loi hng ha Nhn xt : - C s TM : Thng mi da trn c s LTSS - M hnh TM : Mi quc gia s xut khu sn phm c LTSS v nhp khu sn phm ko c LTSS - Gi trao i : Nm trong khong chnh lch gi ni a
- Li ch TM : TM mang li li ch cho cc bn tham gia ( tr chi c kt cc dng ) - Chuyn mn ha : Mi quc gia s chuyn mn ha hon ton vo SP c LTSS - Chnh sch ca nh nc : Nh nc khng nn can thip vo thng mi - Trng hp c bit : Khi NSL ca c 2 quc gia bng nhau th TMQT gia 2 quc gia s khng xy ra IV. L thuyt Chi ph c hi ca Haberler : Khi nim v chi ph c hi ca hng ha: Chi ph c hi ca 1 hng ha l s lng hng ha khc m nn kinh t buc phi t b dnh ti nguyn cho vic sn xut thm 1 n v hng ha no . Nh vy, bn cht ca khi nim chi ph c hi ca hng ha l c hi b t b khng phi tnh bng s lng yu t sn xut ( v d lao ng ) . Khi nim chi ph c hi khng lin quan n l thuyt gi tr lao ng. Khi nim li th so snh di quan im chi ph c hi : Mt quc gia s c li th tng i so vi quc gia khc trong vic sn xut mt hng ha khi n sn xut hng ha vi chi ph c hi thp. Li th so snh da trn s khc bit v chi ph c hi hay chi ph c hi l c s ca li th so snh . Chi ph c hi l c s ca s la chn v chng ta s la chn sn xut nhng mt hng c chi ph c hi thp V d : NSL I II X Y 6 4 1 2 CPCH ca hng ha Y 2 quc gia : CPCH ( Y/X )I = 6 / 4 CPCH ( Y/X )II = 1 / 2 QG II c LTSS v hng ha Y QG I c LTSS v hng ha X
CPCH ca hng ha X 2 quc gia : CPCH ( X/Y )I = 4 / 6 CPCH ( X/Y )II = 2 / 1 QG I c LTSS v hng ha X QG II c LTSS v hng ha Y
QG I thc hin CMHSX, XK hng ha X, NK hng ha Y QG II thc hin CMHSX, XK hng ha Y, NK hng ha X Li ch thng mi vi chi ph c hi khng i : Gi nh chi ph c hi l khng i ( ng PPF l ng thng ) : Trc khi c thng mi : 1 Quc gia mun tng tiu dng mt hng ha th M Brazil X 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Y 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 X 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Y 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
buc phi gim tiu dng hng ha khc Khi c thng mi : thng mi to kh nng cho cc nc c th tng tiu dng mt hng ha m khng phi gim tiu dng mt hng ha khc C s thng mi : ( CPCH X/Y ) M = 2 /3 ; ( CPCH X / Y ) Brazil = 2 ( CPCH X / Y ) M < ( CPCH X / Y ) Brazil M c LTSS v SP X , khng c LTSS v SP Y Brazil c LTSS v SP Y , khng c LTSS v SP X Quy lut thng mi : M c LTSS v SP X nn M s CMH SX , XK SP X Brazil c LTSS v SP Y nn Brazil s CMH SX, XK SP Y Xc nh t l trao i quc t : ( CPCH X/Y )M = 2 /3 ( PX/Y ) M = 2/3 ( CPCH X/Y )Brazil = 2 ( PX/Y ) Brazil = 2
Dng ng PPF ( Gii hn kh nng sn xut ) : th hin cc kt hp sn lng ti a m 1 nn kinh t c th sn xut c trn c s ngun lc v k thut sn xut sn c . ( CPCH c biu din bng dc ca ng PPF )
Y 120 60 B 90 180 Trc khi c thng mi X 40 A Y M 120 C Brazil 40
D 60
dc ca ng PPF ( M ) ( AB ) = 120 / 180 = 2 / 3 dc ca ng PPF ( Brazil ) ( CD ) = 120 / 60 = 2 T l trao i quc t : 2 / 3 < X / Y < 2
Y 120 70 60 E B 180 X Y
M
F
120
Brazil
F E X 40 60 70
50 40 110
90
70 D 60
Brazil
50
M
O
110
120
B 180
Y
Xc nh li ch thng mi : Trc khi c TMQT ( nn kinh t ng,t cung, t cp ) M : Sn xut = Tiu dng = A ( 90X, 60Y ) Brazil : Sn xut = Tiu dng = A ( 40X, 40Y ) Gi s gi quc t trao i theo t l 1 : 1 ( PW = 1 ) v nn kinh t chuyn mn ha hon ton Ti M : Sn xut = B ( 180 X , 0 Y ) Ti Brazil : Sn xut = C ( 0 X , 120 Y ) Xut khu : 70 X , Nhp khu : 70 Y Xut khu : 70 X, Nhp khu : 70 Y Li ch thng mi quc t : Ti M ( So snh E vi F ) Ti Brazil ( So snh E vi F ) E F = (110 X , 70 Y) - (90 X , 60 Y) E F = ( 70 X ,50Y) ( 40 X , 40 Y) M c li : ( 20 X , 10 Y ) Brazil c li : ( 30 X , 10 Y ) Kt lun : Li ch do qu trnh CMH sn xut m c l nh tit kim lao ng v tng sn lng hng ha nh gi l thuyt CPCH ca Haberler : Tin b : L thuyt CPCH gii thch li th so snh bng khi nim CPCH, khng dng l thuyt gi tr lao ng . L thuyt CPCH dng th chng minh v gii thch quy lut li th tng i lm cho vn tr nn n gin v d hiu hn. Hn ch : Da vo CPCH nhng li l CPCH khng i, iu l khng ng bi v trn thc t th chi ph c hi ngy cng tng. Ch nghin cu n yu t cung ng hng ha ( th hin qua ng PPF ) m cha cp n yu t cu cho nn cha nghin cu c c s xc nh gi c quc t . Tm tt cc l thuyt thng mi quc t c in : Ch ngha trng thng Li th tuyt i ca Li th so snh ca Li th so snh ca A.Smit Ricardo Haberler Khuyn khch nhp khu, XK hng ha c LTT v XK hng ha c LTSS v XK hng ha c CPCH hn ch nhp khu NK hng ha khng c NK hng ha khng c thp hn v NK hng ha LTT. LTSS c CPCH cao hn Cn s can thip ca Khng cn s can thip Khng cn s can thip Khng cn s can thip chnh ph ca CP ca CP ca CP TMQT l tr chi = 0 TMQT c hai bn cng c TMQT tt c cc bn u TMQT tt c cc bn u
li c li c li Kt lun : Khi xem xt cc l thuyt thng mi c in ta nhn thy c 1 s hn ch nht nh : - Nn kinh t sn xut vi chi ph c hi l khng i - Nn kinh t sn xut chuyn mn ha hon ton - Cha tnh n s thch, th hiu ca ngi tiu dng - Ch nghin cu yu t cung T cc hn ch trn, l thuyt thng mi hin i ra i, khc phc c nhng hn ch ca cc l thuyt TMQT c in l : - Nn kinh t sn xut vi chi ph c hi ngy cng tng - Chuyn mn ha khng hon ton - Tnh n s thch, th hiu ca ngi tiu dng - Nghin cu c yu t cung v yu t cu.
Chi ph c hi ngy cng tng do : - Ngun lc kinh t l c hn, cho trc - Tnh ring bit ha ca ngun lc u vo.
Y CPCH XA-B = 5 CPCHX-Y = Y / X
65 60 50
CPCH XB-C = 10 CPCH ti im A > CPCH ti im B v dc ng tip tuyn ti im A > dc ng tip tuyn ti im B. X
T l chuyn i bin ( MRT X/Y ) : MRT ca SP X i vi SP Y c biu th qua sn lng sn phm Y m quc gia cn phi b ra SX thm 1 n v SP Y MRT c o bng nghing tuyt i ca ng PPF ti im sn xut . Nu MRT X/Y = 1 / 4 th c ngha l quc gia phi hy sinh 1 / 4 n v SP Y SX thm 1 n v SP X
MRTX/Y = MC X MC Y
im sn xut ti u : im sn lng ti u t c khi chi ph trung bnh bng chi ph bin, khi chi ph sn xut trn tng n v sn phm mc thp nht. iu kin im sn xut ti u : MRTX/Y = PX / Y MRTX/Y = CPCH X/Y = PX / PY = dc PPF
ng bng quan x hi : ( U ) Khi nim : ng bng quan l mt tp hp cc la chn v lng gia hai hng ha khc nhau nhng cng cho mt mc hiu dng bng nhau .
ng ngn sch : ng MN A Tnh cht : M I ng bng quan thng dc xung , ng cong li ( biu = X Xdc m ) . th . P + Y.PY C im sn Cc im nm trn cng 1 B ng U c mcU tha mn nh nhau .xut ti u : im B B B 3 Cc ng U cng xa gc ta th tha dng cng cao CPCH<X/Y 2 < U3 = dc ng U ti B ( U1 U= P X/Y ) U2 Cc ng U khng bao gi ct nhau U1 PX/Y = dc ng MN T l thay th bin ( MRSX-Y ) : PX/Y = T l thay th bin x/y ti B ( MRSX/Y) N X L dc ca ng bng quan c gi l t l thay th bin ca hng tiu dng. y l t l m theo , ngi tiu dng sn lng gim lng hng ha ny c th tng mt n v lng hng ha kia. Thng thng, ng bng quan l mt ng cong (do t l thay th bin khng c nh) v li (v t l thay th bin c xu hng gim dn) MRS X/ Y = MU X MU Y im tiu dng ti u : l tip im gia ng ngn sch ( MN ) v ng bng quan li ch ( U ) iu kin im tiu dng ti u ( ti a ha li ch ) : MRSX/Y = PX / PY
YA
A U2 U1 XA
U3
PPF
X
iu kin ti u nn kinh t : MRTX/Y = MRSX/Y = PX/Y b. Trng hp nn kinh t m v nh : ( Li ch TM vi chi ph c hi tng ) : Nn kinh t m l nn kinh t c trao i hng ha ( giao thng ) vi bn ngoi Nn kinh t nh ( da vo khi lng X , NK hng ha trn th gii ) l nn kinh t phi chp nhn gi th gii khi m ca . V d : Vit Nam l 1 nc nh trong th trng t th gii nhng li l 1 nc ln trn th trng go Trc khi c thng mi ( nn kinh t ng ) :
Trc khi c TM : SX = TD im cn bng ca : QG1 : A(50X,60Y) U1 PX/Y = 1/4 QG2 : A(80X,40Y) U1 PX/Y = 4
Xc nh im chuyn mn ha ( Chuyn mn ha sn xut khng hon ton ) QG1 : B ( 130 X , 20 Y ) QG2 : B ( 40 X , 120 Y ) Trao i thng mi : Khi t do TM : Pwx/y = PBx/y = PBx/y = 1 Gi s t l trao i l 60 X = 60 Y im tiu dng sau thng mi : QG 1 : E ( 70 X , 80 Y ) U2 QG 2 : E ( 100 X, 60 Y ) U2 C 2 im tiu dng sau TM u thuc ng U xa gc ta hn nn c tha dng ln hn Tiu dng sau TM ca mi quc gia tng thm l 20 X , 20 Y Kt lun : C 2 quc gia u c li t thng mi ng cong cho hng v cn bng quc t : a. Gi c sn phm cn bng ( Phn tch cn bng cc b )
Th trng quc gia 1 v hh X Th trng quc t v hh X Th trng quc gia 2 v hh X
Cn bng ni a : QD = QS Cn bng quc t : QNK = QXK Hm cung XK : QXK = S1 D1 Hm cu NK : QNK = D2 S2 b. Cn bng quc t v ng cong cho hng : Khi nim : ng cong cho hng l tp hp cc im biu th ton b s lng hng ha m mt nn kinh t sn sng cung ng XK i ly 1 s lng hng ha NK nhng t l trao i nht nh . C s xc nh : ng PPF ( Sn sng XK ) ng bng quan ( Sn sng NK ) Cc mc gi quc t khc nhau
PB = 1 P2x/y
PWx/y
PF PA P1x/y
Cn bng quc t : im CB : M(M) [ 60 X , 60 Y ] l giao im ca 2 ng cong cho hng ca 2 quc gia Gi QT : PWx/y = dc ng ni gc (O) v im CB = dc ng OM = S lng XNK Y / S lng XNK X Cn bng ni a : P1x/y = dc ng tip tuyn vi CCH(1) ti gc O iu kin TM : P1x/y < PW x/y < P2 x/y
nh gi l thuyt thng mi chun : Tin b : L thuyt TM chun a ra cc gii thch tiu chun v thng mi, c th : CPCH tng , chuyn mn ha khng hon ton , c tnh n s thch, th hiu N cng cho bit mc chuyn mn ha khi c thng mi, khi lng hng ha thng mi, thng d thng mi v phn chia thng d ny cho mi quc gia Hn ch : Cha gii thch c nguyn nhn dn n li th so snh Cha kim nghim nh hng ca TMQT i vi thu nhp hoc ngun lc ca sn xut trong 2 quc gia . L thuyt Heckscher Ohlin : T tng c bn ca l thuyt H O : Mi hng ha khc nhau s dng cc yu t sn xut khc nhau Cc quc gia khc nhau th kh nng cung cp cc yu t sn xut cng khc nhau Mi quc gia nn CMHSX , XK cc SP tp trung cc yu t d tha ca quc gia v nn nhp khu cc SP tp trung cc yu t thiu ht ca quc gia . Nhng gi nh ca m hnh H O : 1.Th gii gm 2 QG , sn xut 2 hng ha v s dng 2 yu t SX ( K v L ) : nhm n gin ha m hnh tuy nhin khng lm mt i tnh khi qut. 2.Hai QG c cng trnh k thut cng ngh : 2 QG s s dng cng 1 sn lng lao ng v t bn nh nhau sn xut 1 n v SP 3.Sn xut trong iu kin t sut li nhun khng i theo quy m : S tng ln v s lng L v TB SX bt c SP no u lm tng s lng SP . 4.Chuyn mn ha sn xut khng hon ton ( CPCH ngy cng tng ) 5.Hai hng ha , SP X cha ng hm lng L ln hn th SP Y phi cha ng hm lng K tng i ln hn . ( L / K )X > ( L / K )Y th ( K / L ) Y > ( K / L )X 6.Cnh tranh hon ho cc nc v tt c cc th trng : Th trng c rt nhiu ngi mua v ngi bn, cc SP l ng nht . Cc quc gia phi chp nhn gi 7.Cc YTSX c t do di chuyn trong nc nhng khng di chuyn gia cc quc gia 8.Hai quc gia c cng s thch tiu dng ( 2 QC c cng 1 biu ng U ) 9.Chi ph vn ti = 0 : CMH SX c tip tc cho n khi gi c SP so snh l nh nhau c 2 quc gia 10.Thng mi t do hon ton ( Thu quan = 0 ) Khi nim yu t tp trung v yu t d tha : Khi nim yu t tp trung trong hng ha : - SP X l hng ha tp trung yu t lao ng ( L )
-
( L / K) X > ( L / K) Y
( K / L) Y > ( K / L )X
SP Y l hng ha tp trung yu t vn ( K ) L 2 K 3
V d : H s sn xut Hng ha X
Hng ha Y 3 5 Trong qu trnh SX SP X tp trung nhiu yu t L ( lao ng ) hn v ( L / K )X = 2/3 > ( L / K )Y = 3/5 Trong qu trnh SX SP Y tp trung nhiu yu t K ( vn ) hn v ( K / L )X = 3/2 < ( K / L )Y = 5/3 Khi nim yu t d tha mt quc gia : Gi s QG 1 c kh nng cung ng di do v lao ng ( L ), QG 2 c kh nng cung ng di do v vn ( K ) Ta c : Da vo cung YTSX ( L / K ) 1 > ( L / K) 2 QG 1 d tha ( L ) khi :
Da vo gi c YTSX (PL / PK )1 < ( PL / PK ) 2 ( w / r) 1 < (w / r) 2
P L : Tnh bng tin lng ( w ) PK : Tnh bng tin thu t bn hay li sut ( r ) QG 2 d tha ( K ) khi :
Da vo cung YTSX ( K / L) 2 > ( K / L) 1 ( PK / PL ) 1 < ( PK / P2 ) L ( r / w)1 < ( r / w)2
Da vo gi c YTSX
Ch : C s xc nh yu t d tha l cn c vo t l tng i gia L v K ca 2 quc gia. M hnh thng mi Heckecher Ohlin : nh l 1 : nh l Rybzinski : Ni dung : Vi 1 H s sn xut cho trc v 2 yu t sn xut c s dng ng thi v y , th khi tng cung cp mt yu t u vo lm tng sn lng sn phm tp trung yu t gia tng v gim tng i sn lng sn phm khc. Chng minh nh l : Gi s nn kinh t c cung cp 900 L v 600 K H s SX L K Thp ( T ) 2 3 Vi ( V ) 4 1 Bc 1 : Xc nh ng gii hn L : Gi s nn kinh t ch s dng 1 yu t l 900 L th ti a SX c : Thp = 450 ( im A ) ; Vi = 225 ( im B ) ng gii hn ( L ) : AB Bc 2 : Xc nh ng gii hn K : Gi s nn kinh t ch s dng 1 yu t l 600 K th ti a SX c : Thp = 200 ( im C); Vi = 600 ( im D ) ng gii hn ( K ) : CD Bc 3 : Xc nh ng gii hn ( L v K ) : Khi nn kinh t s dng ng thi 900 L v 600 K th ng gii hn ( K,L) l CEB ( 200 T, 225 V ) Bc 4 :Nn KT c tng cung L ln 1200 L v 600 K th : ng CD khng i ng AB dch sang phi sang MN ( 300 V , 600 T ) ng gii hn ( K,L) mi l CHN ti a SX c ( 200 T, 300 V ) NX : Nu tng cung L th sn lng vi ( V ) tng t 225 ln 300 , sn lng thp ( T ) gim tng i t 200/225 xung cn 200/300 Vi 1 h s SX cho trc, 2 yu t SX c s dng y , th khi tng cung cp 1 yu t u vo, lm tng sn lng sn phm tp trung yu t gia tng v gim tng i sn lng sn phm khc. Ban u, ng ( K,L ) l CEB . Tng cung L, dn n QG1 d tha L. Khi , ng gii hn ( K,L) l CHN nghing v trc biu th Vi ( tp trung yu t L )
ngha : Hnh dng ng PPF ph thuc vo cung YTSX , mt quc gia d tha YTSX no th ng PPF nghing v hng ha tp trung YTSX . Mt QG c LTSS v sn phm tp trung yu t m QG d tha. Nh hnh bn th ta c : QG 1 thc hin CMHSX v XK SP X tp trung ( L ) yu t ( d tha ) , NK SP Y tp trung ( K ) yu t khan him . C 2 QG u c li t TM
nh l Heckcher Ohlin : Ni dung : Cc quc gia s c li ch trong TMQT nu thc hin cmh sn xut v xut khu sn phm tp trung yu t m QG d tha v nhp khu sn phm tp trung yu t m QG khan him . Chng minh nh l : Gi s QG I d tha v lao ng ( L ) v QG II d tha v vn ( K ) X l hng ha tp trung nhiu ( L ) cn Y l hng ha tp trung nhiu ( K) Ta cn chng minh : QG I xut khu X , nhp khu Y v QG II xut khu Y, nhp khu X ng ngha vi vic chng minh l : QG I c LTSS v SP X v QG II c LTSS v SP Y. Ta c : ng PPF ca QG I nghing gn trc honh biu th s lng SP X ng PPF ca QG II nghing gn trc tung biu th s lng SP Y Hai quc gia c th hiu tiu dng ging nhau nn 2 QG c ng bng quan U1 ging nhau Trc khi c TM ( SX = TD ti tip xc ca U v PPF )
(PNX/Y)II Trc khi c TM
A A
U1
(PNX/Y)I
ng bng quan U1 tip xc vi ng PPF ca quc gia 1 ti A, vi PPF ca QG 2 ti A. im A v A l im cn bng t cung t cp ca quc gia 1 v quc gia 2. Xc nh gi cn bng = dc ca ng tip tuyn chung ca U v PPF : QG I : Gi cn bng ( MRT X / Y )I = ( PNX/Y ) I QG II : Gi cn bng ( MRT X / Y )II = ( PNX/Y ) II ( PNX/Y )I < ( PNX/Y )II ( v ng ( PNX/Y )I c dc nh hn ng ( PNX/Y )II ) QG I CMH SX SP X QG II CMH SX SP Y
Sau khi c TM :
Khi c TM
QG I chuyn mn ha SX SP X v QG II chuyn mn ha SP Y . im sn xut ca QG I di chuyn xung di , CPCH ca SP X tng dn im sn xut ca QG II di chuyn ln trn, CPCH ca SP X gim dn (CPCH ca SP Y tng dn) Chuyn mn ho din ra cho ti khi chi ph c hi ca X ti hai quc gia cn bng: QG I sn xut ti B, QG II sn xut ti B: PB = PB. Trn th mc gi PB = PB c biu th bng nghing ca 2 tip tuyn: PB PB QG I xut khu SP X (BC) v nhp khu SP Y (CE), t ti tiu dng ti E trn ng bng quan U2 (tam gic mu dch BCE). QG II xut khu SP Y (BC) v nhp khu SP X (CE), tiu dng ti E trn ng bng quan U2 (tam gic mu dch BCE). E trng vi E . Tam gic mu dch BCE = BCE
Ti E v E trn ng bng quan U2, tho mn tiu dng ca quc gia 1 v quc gia 2 u cao hn so vi ti A v A trn bng quan U1 C hai quc gia cng c li t mu dch.
nh l Stoper Samuelson Ni dung: Mt s tng ln trong gi c tng i ca mt loi hng ha lm tng thu nhp thc t ca yu t c s dng tp trung sn xut hng ha v gim tng i thu nhp ca yu t khc. Gi thit : X l hng ha tp trung L ;Y l hng ha tp trung K ; P ( X / Y ) tng Kt lun : Thu nhp thc t ca lao ng tng Thu nhp thc t ca t bn gim Ta c : ( TNTT L = w / p = tin lng / gi c ) tng (w / r = tin lng / tin thu vn ) tng P ( X/ Y) tng (r / w = tin thu vn / tin lng ) gim
( TNTTK = r / p = tin thu vn / gi c ) gim T l w/r chuyn ng cng chiu vi P X/Y (r / w = tin thu vn / tin lng ) tng (w / r = tin lng / tin thu vn ) gim T l r/w chuyn ng cng chiu vi PY/X
P ( Y/ X ) tng
Chng minh: Gi c cc yu t SX: Gi thu L (PL): w (Tin lng) Gi thu K (PK): r (Li sut) Ta c cn chng minh : Khi mc lng ( w ) tr nn r hn tng i so vi gi thu t bn ( r ) th sn phm tp trung L s r hn tng i so vi sn phm tp trung K Ta c SP X l SP tp trung L . Khi PX tng tng i so vi PY ( P ( X / Y ) tng ): Cc DN SX X s tin hnh m rng SX Cc DN phi tp trung u t ng thi 2 yu t u vo ( K , L ) Mt khc, X l SP tp trung L Cu v L tng tng i so vi K w tng tng i so vi gi thu t bn K ( r ) ( PX / PY ) tng w / r tng d. nh l 4 : nh l cn bng gi c cc yu t SX : Ni dung : TMTD lm cn bng gi c cc YTSX , v vy n ng vai tr thay th cho s di chuyn cc YTSX. Chng minh : Trn biu , gi c so snh ca lao ng ( w/r ) c o bng trc honh v gi c so snh ca SP X ( PX / PY ) c o bng trc tung . Trc khi c mu dch : QG I s im A , vi w/r = ( w/r)1 v PX / PY = PAX/Y QG II s im A, vi w/r = ( w/r)2 v PX / PY = PAX/Y
Khi c mu dch: V ( w/r)1 < ( w/r)2 v PAX/Y < PAX/Y nn : QG I c LTSS v SP X QG I s CMH SX SP X v gim bt SP XP Y ,cu lao ng tng ln tng i so vi cu t bn v ( w/r) tng QG I PAX/Y tng ln im cn bng di chuyn ln trn . QG II c LTSS v SP Y QG II s CMH SX SP Y v gim bt SX SP X , cu t bn tng ln tng i so vi cu lao ng v (r/w ) tng QG II PAY/X tng ln PA X/Y gim xung im cn bng di chuyn xung di. Qu trnh ny c tip tc cho n khi t ti im B = B , ti PB = PB v w/r = W/r c 2 quc gia Nh vy, PX / PY s cn bng nh l kt qu ca mu dch v iu ny cng lm cho w/r tr nn cn bng 2 quc gia.
- Nhc im ca bo h mu dch : Nn SX ni a chm pht trin, khng nng ng, sng to ; khng tip thu c nhng tin b KHKT trn th gii p dng vo sn xut trong nc Trong thc t, 2 xu hng thng mi t do v bo h mu dch tri ngc nhau nhng khng mu thun nhau. Cc quc gia trn th gii u p dng ng thi c 2 xu hng.
Ti P1 : Nn kinh t SX ti im Q1 v TD ti im Q4 Vy, QG A NK : Q4 Q1 ( DG ) Sau khi c thu : Chnh ph p dng T = a USD/SFNK : PtNK = P2 = P1 + T / SPNK.
Ti P2 : Nn kinh t SX ti im Q2 v TD ti im Q3
Tc ng ca thu quan n nn kinh t : Gi tng t P1 ln P2 ( mc tng = mc thu ) . - Sn xut trong nc tng t Q1 ln Q2 , tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 , sn lng nhp khu gim t ( Q4 Q1) xung cn ( Q3 Q2 ) - Ngi tiu dng : ( thng d tiu dng ( CS ) = trn gi di cu ) : = SKHCD Trc khi c thu : QG A tiu dng : SKDH Sau khi c thu : QG A tiu dng : SKCA Thng d tiu dng ( Ngi tiu dng b thit do CS gim ) : CS = SKDH - SKCA = SACDH - Ngi sn xut ( thng d sn xut ( PS ) = trn cung di gi ) : = SABHG Trc khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJHG Sau khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJAB Thng d sn xut ca ( Ngi sn xut li do PS tng ) : PS = SJAB SJHG = SABHG - Chnh ph : ( cc khon thu thu v cho NSNN ) : Chnh ph c li = DTT = T/SPNK QNK = ( P1 - P2). ( Q3 Q2 ) = SBCEF - Phc li rng ca nn kinh t = ( - SACDH ) + ( SABHG ) + ( SBCEF ) = - ( SBFG + SECD ) Phn tn tht do thu l : ( SBFG + SECD ) Kt lun : i vi quc gia nh khi p dng thu NK : PtNK = PW + T/SFNK Nn kinh t lun chu tn tht do thu gy ra Trng hp 2 : Tc ng cc b ca thu quan i vi quc gia ln : Quc gia ln l quc gia c kh nng tc ng n gi quc t, v vy c khi lng XNK ln trn th trng quc t .
Xt QGB: ln , m ca PX
G P0 P3 A
E0
SX
B F
C E D
P1 I P2 K
H N M
DX
Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
QX
Th trng ni a QG ln
- Tc ng n th trng quc t : Khi QG B nh thu T/ SFNK = PtNK PtXK DTT = (PtNK PtXK ) . QNK - Tc ng n quc gia ln : Trc khi c thu ( thng mi t do ) QG B sn xut ti im Q1 v tiu dng ti im Q4 . Khi lng NK ca QG B l : Q4 Q1 ( DH ) Khi quc gia ln p dng thu quan : QG B sn xut ti im Q2 v tiu dng ti im Q3 . Khi lng NK ca QG B l : Q3 Q2 Vy, sau khi p dng thu quan : Sn xut ca QG B tng t Q1 ln Q2 ; Tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 v ko theo sn lng NK gim t ( Q4 Q1 ) xung cn ( Q3 Q2 ) Phc li rng ca nn kinh t :
Ngi tiu dng : ( thng d tiu dng ( CS ) = trn gi di cu ) : = SACDI Trc khi c thu : QG B tiu dng : SIDG Sau khi c thu : QG B tiu dng : SICA Thng d tiu dng ( Ngi tiu dng b thit do CS gim ) : CS = SKDH - SKCA = SACDI - Ngi sn xut ( thng d sn xut ( PS ) = trn cung di gi ) : = SABHI Trc khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJHG Sau khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJAB Thng d sn xut ca ( Ngi sn xut li do PS tng ) : PS = SJAB SJHG = SABHI - Chnh ph : ( cc khon thu thu v cho NSNN ) : Chnh ph c li = DTT = T/SPNK QNK = ( P2 - P3). ( Q3 Q2 ) = SBCMN - Phc li rng ca nn kinh t = ( + SFEMN ) + ( - SBFH+ CED ) ?????? p dng chnh sch thu NK lun gy tn tht cho nn kinh t ( Sai ) : V ch i vi QG nh khi p dng chnh sch thu NK mi phi chu tn tht cn i vi quc gia ln th ty tng trng hp c th thit, c th c li . Trng hp 3. Tc ng tng th ca thu quan i vi quc gia nh : Nghin cu QGII d tha v K , sn xut 2 loi hng ha : hng ha X tp trung L v hng ha Y tp trung K ng PPF ca QG II c dng lm v pha trc Y ( ng PPF lm v pha trc hng ha tp trung yu t d tha ca QG )
Trc khi c thu : ( thng mi t do ) Khi TMTD : QG II c LTSS v SP Y M hnh TM ca QG II : CMH,SX, XK SP Y ; NK SP X ( CMH : tng s lng SXSP Y so vi nn kinh t ng , do ngun lc kinh t c hn cho nn khi Y tng th X gim ) Vi mc gi th gii PWX/Y , khi t do TM th QG II ( QG nh ) s phi chp nhn gi th gii vy th gi ni a s ngang bng vi gi th gii tc l PWX/Y = (PX/Y)1 . Vi ng gi th gii ny chng ta xc nh c im sn xut ti u l im A1 tip xc gia ng PPF v ng gi th gii PW . T im sn xut A1 QG II s tin hnh xut khu A1K sn phm Y ng thi nhp khu v KE sn phm X im E l im tiu dng ti u ca QG II.
nc s tng cng sn xut SP X , m do ngun lc kinh t l c hn nn khi X tng th Y gim . Ti A2 , thu quan lm o ngc phn cng lao ng theo quy lut LTSS bi v : Theo quy lut LTSS th trc khi c thu QG II s CMH SX, XK SP Y ( SP Y tng ), NK SP X m do ngun lc KT c hn nn SP X s phi gim . Sau khi c thu , do hng ha X tng vy sn lng hng ha X s phi tng , mt khc ngun lc kinh t c hn nn sn lng hng ha Y s phi gim - Tc ng n thng mi quc t :
Sau khi c thu, im SX ti u l im A2 , t im A2 , QG II s xut khu 1 lng l A2L SP Y ng thi NK v LH SP X . So snh vi trc khi c thu ( so snh vi A1 ) ta thy, khi lng XNK gim ( quy m thng mi gim ) Thu quan lm ( gim ) thu hp quy m thng mi . - Tc ng n tiu dng : im tiu dng ti u sau khi c thu : iu kin tiu dng ti u : MRSX/Y = PX/Y m sau khi c thu, gi ni a l (PX/Y)2 vy im tiu dng ti u l H. QG II nhp khu v 1 lng l LH SP X nhng ch tiu dng 1 lng l LH SP X , vy on HH ri vo tay chnh ph ( tng doanh thu thu ) - Tc ng n thu nhp ( thu nhp t cc yu t SX w v r ) : Trc khi c thu, QG II CMH SX , XK SP Y lm cho ( PY/X) ( r / w) TNTT ca ch TB ng thi TNTT ca ngi lao ng Sau khi c thu gi ca hng ha X tng ( PX/Y) ( w/r) TNTT ca ngi lao ng ng thi TNTT ca ch TB . Thu quan thc hin chc nng phn phi li thu nhp ( chuyn 1 phn thu nhp ca ch TB sang ngi lao ng ) . ????? p dng cc cng c ca chnh sch TMQT s lm tng quy m thng mi . Sai : V thu quan l 1 cng c ca chnh sch thng mi . Trng hp 4 : Tc ng tng th ca thu quan i vi quc gia ln : Quy m thng mi( t l trao i ) : Khi lng XNK ca 1 quc gia ti 1 mc gi c quc t nht nh ( Quy m thng mi tng th li ch kinh t ca quc gia s tng Phc li rng tng ) . iu kin thng mi ( h s TM ) : iu kin TM ca 1 nc l t s gia gi hng XK vi gi hng NK ca 1 quc gia .
N = PX / PM 100 % PX : Gi hng XK PM : Gi hng NK PX = Xi . Pi Xi : T trng XK hng ha th i N : iu kin thng mi
Xt m hnh 2 quc gia , mi quc gia ch sn xut 2 hng ha : QG I : CMH SX, XK SP X, NK SP Y iu kin thng mi ca QG I : N = PX / PY QG II : CMH SX, XK SP Y, NK SP X iu kin thng mi ca QG II : N = PY / PX .
Khi tham gia CMH SX th gi ca hng ha c li th so snh s tng ( QG c li )
Tc ng n th trng ni a ca QG B : Trc khi c thu ( TM t do ) : PN = PW = 1 T l trao i : XK 60 Y , NK 60 X - Sau khi c thu : QG 2 p dng thu i vi SP XK X iu kin TM ( P ) = Gi tng i ca SP c LTSS : PY/X = 50 / 40 = 1,25
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T l trao i : XK 40 Y , NK 50 X NX : QG 2 sau khi nh thu : - KTM ( P ) : P t 1 ln 1,25 - Quy m TM ( t l trao i gim ) t 60X,60Y xung 50X,40Y. - PLR ca NKT QG 2 ( Ph thuc vo khi lng XNK ) : TH 1 : PLR ca QG 2 s tng khi QG 2 c phn tng ca KTM > phn gim ca Quy m TM. TH 2 : PLR ca QG 2 s gim khi QG 2 c phn tng ca KTM < phn gim ca Quy m TM. d. Thu quan v phc li th gii : nh hng ca thu quan n sn lng th gii : Sn lng ca NKT TG t mc ti a khi cc quc gia trong nn kinh t TG khng cn phng n SX ti u no khc na . KSX ti u : MRTX/Y = PX/Y Gi s nn kinh t TG c n quc gia , mi QG c 1 iu kin SX ti u : K sn lng ca NKT TG QG1 c MRT1X/Y = P1X/Y MRT1X/Y = MRT2X/Y = MRTWX/Y QG2 c MRT2X/Y = P2X/Y QGn c MRTnX/Y = PnX/Y ( T do thng mi ) Gi s QG 1 p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP X : MRT1X/Y > MRTWX/Y cn khi p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP Y th : MRT1X/Y < MRTWX/Y. ( Vi phm k ti a ha sn lng ) Thu quan ngn cn th gii ti a ha sn lng v khi p dng thu quan th MRT1X/Y MRTWX/Y Thu quan v li ch ngi tiu dng : Li ch ngi tiu dng t mc ti a khi cc quc gia trong nn kinh t th gii khng cn phng n tiu dng ti u no khc na. KTD ti u : MRSX/Y = PX/Y M mi quc gia trn TG li c 1 phng n tiu dng ti u cho nn mun nn kinh t th gii khng cn phng n tiu dng ti u no khc na th : MRS1X/Y = MRS2X/Y = = MRSWX/Y T do thng mi Gi s QG 2 p dng chnh sch thu NK vi SP X th MRS 2X/Y > MRSWX/Y cn khi p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP Y th : MRS2X/Y < MRSWX/Y. ( Vi phm iu kin li ch tiu dng ti a ) Thu quan ngn cn th gii phn b c hiu qu hng ha gia cc quc gia v khi p dng thu quan th MRS2X/Y MRSWX/Y ?????? TMQT ti a ha mc sn lng ca nn kinh t th gii ( ng ) : v chng II nghin cu thng mi quc t trong iu kin t do cho nn cc quc gia khng p dng cc chnh sch thng mi nh thu quan, phi thu quan vo trong qu trnh trao i, mua bn hng ha ?????? p dng cc chnh sch thng mi quc t nhm bo v li ch ca ngi tiu dng ( Sai ) : v trong chnh sch TMQT c 1 cng c l thu quan, vic p dng thu quan lm gim li ch ca ngi tiu dng. Thu quan danh ngha : L thu quan p dng vi hng ha, dch v cui cng ( hng ha vi mc ch tiu dng ) hng ha dch v trung gian ( hng ha vi mc ch tham gia vo qu trnh sn xut ) . T l bo h thc s ca thu quan ( ERP ) : L t l % gia phn chnh lch ca gi tr tng thm gi ni a vi gi tr tng thm gi th gii
ERP = ( v v ) 100 % v v : gi tr tng thm gi ni a v : gi tr tng thm gi th gii
V d : Gi s PNK = 40$/1 i giy . Gi tr tng thm = gi thnh u1 i giy u vo ph p dng thu NK : t = PNK nguyn liu da = 30$/ ra chi ph . Chnh 25% / 1 i giy . Tnh ERP trong 3 trng hp : t ( da NK ) = 0 ; t ( da NK ) = 10% , t ( da NK ) = 50% Gii : Ta c : hng ha dch v cui cng l giy , hng ha dch v trung gian l da , mc thu 25% p dng i vi hng ha dch v cui cng , ta tnh mc bo h thc s cui cng trong trng hp mc thu nh vo hng ha dch v trung gian thay i trong 3 trng hp : Trng hp t = 0 % : Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 25 % + 40 ) 30 = 20 ERP = [ ( 20 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = 100 % Trng hp t = 10 % :
Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 + 40 25 % ) ( 30 + 30 10 % ) = 17 ERP = [ ( 17 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = 70 % Trng hp t = 50 % : Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 + 40 25 % ) ( 30 + 30 50 % ) = 5 ERP = [ ( 5 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = - 50 % KL : Vic p dng thu khng tc ng n gi c m ch tc ng n gi thnh NX : Khi thu i vi hng ha dch v trung gian = 0 th nh SX c li nhiu nht v khi mc bo h cao nht Khi thu vi hng ha dch v trung gian tng ln th nh SX chu thit v mc bo h gim dn Khi thu i vi hng ha dch v trung gian qu cao ( ERP < 0 ) th khi nh SX khng c bo h. Khi mc thu t = 25% i vi hng ha dch v cui cng khng cn thc hin chc nng bo h na m thc hin chc nng tng thu cho ngn sch nh nc . ???? p dng thu NK lun bo h nn cng nghip non tr ( cc ngnh SX trong nc ) ( SAI) : Ty vo loi thu nh vo hng ha, dch v no . C th : i vi thu nh vo hng ha dch v trung gian th n lm tng chi ph SX lm gim sn lng sn xut khng thc hin chc nng bo h m ch thc hin chc nng tng thu cho ngn sch nh nc. 3.2.2. Hn ngch nhp khu : a. Khi nim : Hn ngch NK l 1 loi giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit, p dng i vi mt s loi hng ha ngoi thng nht nh , trong chnh ph quy nh r s lng hng ha XNK c th ca 1 quc gia trong 1 thi k nht nh ( thng l 1 nm ) Hng ha ngoi thng l hng ha nhng ngi mua hng ha c giy php kinh doanh XNK ; vic mua , bn gia ngi NK v ngi XK c thc hin bng hp ng mua bn ngoi thng . Hng ha c c sn xut t th trng nc ngoi a vo th trng ni a ; hng ha vic thanh ton bng ng ngoi t , l hng chu thu XK . Hn ngch NK l 1 loi giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit : - Ch p dng i vi mt s loi hng ha ngoi thng nht nh ( hng ha XNK nht nh ) - Trong giy php kinh doanh XNK th CP s phi quy nh trc khi lng c php XNK ( a ) b. Tc ng ca hn ngch NK i vi nn kinh t : Cch thc phn b hn ngch : C 2 hnh thc phn b giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit : - Cp pht : Chnh ph cp pht min ph hn ngch cho cc DN NK v khng thu bt k 1 khon tin no . VD : CP cp pht hn ngch cho DN NK mui n cc chi cc hi quan xin cp giy php NK ( min ph ) - u gi : Chnh ph bn u gi giy php hn ngch cho cc DN NK ( trong trng hp ny , mi HN NK tc ng tng ng nh thu quan ) . Trong trng hp ny, s tin m chnh ph thu c l : Tng doanh thu hn ngch = L ph hn ngch Khi lng nhp khu khi c hn ngch ( a ) ( L ph hn ngch ngang bng vi mc thu ) Tc ng ca HN NK Tc ng ca thu quan. Trng hp 1 : Tc ng ca hn ngch i vi quc gia nh :
QG A l QG nh, m ca, SX v trao i SP X Th trng hng ha X ca QG A c biu din bng ng cung SX v ng cu DX v giao gia 2 ng ny l im E0 l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X QG A . T im E0 ta xc nh c mc gi ni a khi t tc l P0 - Trc khi p dng hn ngch NK ( TMTD ) : Gi s th trng QT cung cp hng ha X vi mc gi l P1 , do QG A l 1 nc nh , khng c kh nng tc ng vo gi th gii vy ng gi th gii phi biu din = 1 ng cung song song vi trc honh ( hon ton co gin theo gi ) Lc P0 > P1 , QG A tin hnh NK hh X vi mc gi chp nhn gi th gii ( P1 ) Ti mc gi P1 , QG A sn xut ti Q1 , tiu dng ti Q4 NK 1 lng Q4 Q1 .
- Sau khi p dng HN NK v khi lng HN NK c quy nh r y l a Khi p dng HN NK th gi th gii ko thay i ( P1 ) cn gi ni a tng ln t P1 ln P2 chnh lch gia 2 mc gi P1 v P2 l l ph hn ngch ( s tin m cc DN phi tr cho chnh ph trn 1 n v SP nhp khu ). Vi mc gi ni a by gi l P2 , QG A sn xut ti mc Q2 , tiu dng ti mc Q3 v nhp khu 1 lng l Q3 Q2 = a . Phn tch tc ng ca hn ngch nhp khu : - Sau khi c hn ngch : Gi tng t P1 ln P2 SX tng t Q1 ln Q2 Tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 Nhp khu gim t Q4 Q1 xung cn Q3 Q2 PLR ca nn kinh t : - Ngi tiu dng thit 1 phn din tch l SACDH - Ngi sn xut c li 1 phn din tch l SABGH - Chnh ph : Ph thuc vo cch thc phn b hn ngch : + Nu nh CP cp pht hn ngch th tng doanh thu hn ngch = 0 PLR = - SBCDG + Nu nh CP u gi , CP thu c 1 khon tin t vic u gi ta gi l tng doanh thu hn ngch = SBCEF PLR = - ( SBFG + SCDE ) Phn SBFG + SCDE : tn tht thc s do hn ngch gy ra trong SBGF l tn tht sn xut do NKT phi gnh chu ( tn tht do bo h ngnh SX SP X trong nc m SP X l SP khng c LTSS nn phi tin hnh NK ) cn SCED gi l tn tht tiu dng do NKT gnh chu ( ngi TD phi tiu dng vi mc gi cao hn t P1 ln P2 ) i vi 1 QG nh khi p dng hn ngch th nn KT lun phi chu tn tht , trong trng hp cp pht th mc tn tht cn ln hn ????? Thi : Phn tch tc ng ca HNNK i vi QG nh : - KN : Hn ngch NK l g ? - Quc gia nh l g ? - V th, phn tch : + Trc khi c HN + Sau khi c HN : tc ng n gi, sn xut,NK , PLR ca nn kinh t Trng hp 2 : Tc ng ca HN NK i vi QG ln : Quc gia ln l quc gia c kh nng tc ng n gi quc t lm thay i gi quc t , v vy c khi lng XNK ln trn th trng quc t .
Quc gia B ln, m ca
T do TM
Tc ng ca HN NK i vi th trng quc t : Th trng quc t v hng ha X c biu din bng 1 ng cung XK l QXK v 1 ng cu NK l QNK , giao gia 2 ng ny ta c im E0 l im CB trn th trng QT v hng ha X. Ti im E0 ta xc nh c mc gi cn bng PW ( mc gi khi t do TM ) v khi lng XNK hng ha X l Q0 - Gi s QG B l 1 nc ln p dng chnh sch HN NK v trong giy php HNNK c quy nh r mc c php NK l a ( Qq ). Vy, vi lng NK c php y l Qq th lng NK gim t Q0 xung Qq
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lm cho ng cu NK chuyn ng xung pha di t QNK sang QNK t hnh thnh im cn bng mi trn th trng QT ( E1 ) lm cho mc gi th gii gim . - im E1 l im cn bng trn th trng QT sau khi c HN NK ( y chnh l mc gi m DN XK thc nhn v cng l mc gi m cc DN NK QG B thc tr ) , vy QG B mua hng ha X trn th trng QT vi gi l PHNXK nhng em hng ha X v bn th trng ni a vi gi PHNNK ( chnh lch gia 2 mc gi ny chnh l l ph hn ngch L ph HN = PHNNK - PHNXK ) Trong trng hp nh nc bn u gi HN NK th s thu c 1 khon tin m chng ta gi l tng doanh thu hn ngch = L ph hn ngch NK s lng NK ( Qq ) = ( PHNNK - PHNXK ) Qq Vy quc gia ln khi p dng hn ngch lm cho gi quc t gim t PW xung PHNXK Tc ng ca HN NK i vi th trng ni a ca QG ln : - Trc khi c HN NK ( thng mi t do ) : gi ni a ca QG ln ngang bng vi mc gi th gii khi t do TM ( P1 = PW ) . Ti mc gi P1 QG B s sn xut ti mc Q1 , tiu dng 1 lng l Q4 , nhp khu 1 lng l Q4 Q1 - Sau khi c HN NK : QG B mua hng ha X trn th trng QT vi gi PHNXK ( P2 ) nhng bn trn th trng ni ia vi gi PHNNK ( P3 ) sau khi c HN th mc gi trn th trng ni a ca QG B l P3 Ti mc gi P3 th QG B sn xut tng ln t Q1 ln Q2 , tiu dng gim xung t Q3 xung Q4 , nhp khu gim t Q4 Q1 xung cn Q3 Q2 ( = Qq ) PLR ca nn kinh t : ( gi tng t P1 ln P3 ) - Ngi tiu dng chu thit 1 phn din tch l SACDI - Ngi sn xut c li 1 phn din tch l SABHI - Chnh ph s c li 1 khon l Tng doanh thu hn ngch SBCMN - PLR ca nn kinh t : = ( - SACDI ) + ( SABHI + SBCEF ) = ( + SFEMN ) + ( - SBFH + CED ) + Nu SFEMN > SBFH+CED PLR > 0 ( PLR tng ) QG B c li trong vic p dng HN NK + Nu SFEMN < SBFH+CED PLR < 0 ( PLR gim ) QG B chu tn tht trong vic p dng HN NK c. So snh HNNK v thu NK : Ging nhau : u l cc cng c bo h ca nn kinh t ; khi p dng th c tc ng n gi c hng ha sn xut, tc ng n sn xut v tiu dng ca nn kinh t. Khc nhau : Tiu ch Hn ngch nhp khu Thu nhp khu Loi hng ha p dng p dng vi mt s loi hng ha p dng i vi mi hng ha ngoi ngoi thng nht nh thng Phm vi p dng Chnh ph khng ch s lng c Khi p dng thu NK lm cho PNK nh ( QNK = a ) trong 1 nm QNK nhng CP khng quy nh s lng gim c th Tc ng n ngn sch Nh nc c thu c khon tin t Chc chn thu c 1 khon tin t thu giy php hn ngch hay khng ( khon thu thc t ) th hon ton ph thuc vo vic phn b hn ngch : Nu nh cp pht th khng thu c 1 khon tin no c cn nu nh u gi th s thu c Tc ng n bo h p dng hn ngch nhp khu bo p dng thu nhp khu khng chc h mang tnh chc chn hn so vi chn bng p dng hn ngch thu quan Tc ng n c quyn p dng hn ngch nhp khu c th Khng th bin cc DN c quyn tim bin DN c quyn tim nng thnh nng thnh DN c quyn thc s DN c quyn thc s 3. Tr cp xut khu : a, Khi nim : Tr cp XK l nhng u i v mt ti chnh m chnh ph cc quc gia thc hin nhm kch thch tng cng xut khu . Tr cp XK bao gm 2 loi : - Tr cp XK trc tip : l khi nh nc hoc CP s cho i tng c tr cp 1 khon tin nht nh
- Tr cp XK gin tip : l khi nh nc hoc CP s cho i tng c tr cp nhng u i khc v mt tn dng nh li sut hoc c th ng ra vay vn cho cc i tng c nhn tr cp hoc l cho cc i tng c nhn tr cp vay 1 khon vay vi li sut u i. Gim thu TNDN i vi DN c nhn tr cp Mc ch ca tr cp XK l nhm tng cng , thc y XK . i tng c nhn tr cp XK l cc DN XK hoc nh NK ( tr cp XK gin tip thng qua vic cho vay 1 khon vi li sut u i c th NK c SP t quc gia tr cp ) . b.Tc ng ca tr cp XK : Tc ng ca tr cp XK i vi quc gia nh :
QG I : nh, m ca
QG I : nh ,m ca, SX v trao i SP X , th trng hng ha X ca QG I c biu din bng ng cung SX v ng cu DX , giao gia 2 ng ny ta c im cn bng E0 v mc gi cn bng l P0 - Trc khi tr cp ( TMTD ) : Gi s th trng th gii cung cp hng ha X vi mc gi l P1 , do QG I l QG nh khng c kh nng tc ng vo gi th gii vy ng gi th gii c biu din bng 1 ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi ( song song vi trc honh ) Ta thy P0 < P1 ( QG I c LTSS v SP X ) QG I tin hnh XK SP X vi mc gi ngang bng vi mc gi th gii l P1 Ti P1 , QG I sn xut ti mc Q3 , tiu dng ti mc l Q2 , XK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 ( EF )
- Sau khi tr cp : Gi s QG I tr cp XK cho SP X vi mc tr cp l Tr/SPXK , gi th gii vn gi nguyn l P1 tuy nhin mc gi ni a s tng ln P2 , khi QG I sn xut ti mc Q4 , tiu dng ti mc Q1 v xut khu 1 lng l Q4 Q1 ( BC ) Tc ng ca tr cp : P , SX , TD , XK Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi tng t P1 ln P2 ) : - Ngi tiu dng thit 1 phn l thng d tiu dng gim : SABFH - Ngi sn xut li ( thng d SX tng ) : SACEH - Chnh ph chu thit v phi chi ra 1 khon tin cho tr cp ( Tng tr cp XK = Mc tr cp trn mi SP XK Khi lng XK = ( P2 P1 ) ( Q4 Q1 ) ) : SBCDG - PLR ca nn kinh t = SACEH + ( - SABFH ) + ( - SBCDG ) = - ( SBGF + SCED ) Tn tht thc s do tr cp gy ra . Tc ng ca tr cp XK i vi quc gia ln :
QG II l QG ln , m ca khi p dng chnh sch tr cp XK c tc ng n th trng quc t : Th trng hng ha X c biu din bng ng cung XK l SXK v ng cu NK l DNK , giao gia 2 ng ny ta xc nh c im cn bng E0 v mc gi CB khi t do TM l PW v lng XNK khi t do TM l QXNK Gi s QG II tin hnh tr cp XK i vi SP X lng XK SP X tng lm cho ng cung XK dch chuyn sang phi t SXK sang S t hnh thnh im cn bng trn th trng QT mi l im E1 , t im E1 ta xc nh c 2 mc gi : Mc gi tr cp XK ( PTRXK ) v mc gi tr cp NK ( PTRNK ) . Trong : PTRNK l mc gi QG II thc bn trn th trng QT v cng l mc gi thc mua ca QG nhp khu nhng cc DN XK ca QG II s thc nhn mc gi PTRXK bi v c nh nc tr cp 1 khon l chnh lch gia 2 mc gi
i vi QG ln khon tr cp : TR XK / SPXK = ( PTRXK PTRNK ) Khi nh nc tin hnh tr cp XK th s phi b ra 1 khon tin ta gi l Tng tr cp XK : TR XK = TR XK / SPXK QXK = ( PTRXK PTRNK ) QXK
Lin minh thu quan ( CU ) k tha khu vc mu dch t do ( FTA ) c im t do lu thng hng ha gia cc QG thnh vin ; th trng chung ( CM ) s k tha lin minh thu quan ( CU ) c im l chung mt biu thu quan gia cc quc gia thnh vin ; lin minh kinh t + tin t ( EMU ) s k tha th trng chung ( CM ) c im l t do lu thng hng ha, t bn v sc lao ng gia cc quc gia thnh vin. ????? Mi lin kt KTQT u dn n s t do di chuyn cc yu t SX ( SAI ) : Ch khi t n trnh v th trng chung mi c s t do v K v L cn cc cp cn li nh FTA hoc CU th cha c s trao i t do v K v L . 1.3 Bn cht ca lin kt KTQT : Nguyn tc u tin khi 1 QG mun tham gia vo lin kt KTQT l phi t do lu thng hng ha gia cc quc gia thnh vin ng thi cc QG thnh vin hoc l duy tr biu thu quan ring ca tng nc hoc l cng nhau thit lp 1 biu thu quan chung khi trao i TM vi cc QG ngoi thnh vin bo v quyn li ca cc QG thnh vin. Cho nn trong mi lin kt KTQT lun tn ti 2 xu hng tri ngc nhau l va t do TM gia cc QG thnh vin vi nhau v va bo h mu dch gia cc QG thnh vin vi cc QG ngoi thnh vin Trong lin kt KTQT c s phn bit i x ( gia cc QG thnh vin v cc QG ngoi thnh vin) . II. Tc ng kinh t ca lin kt kinh t quc t ( Tc ng kinh t ca lin minh thu quan ): 1. Lin minh thu quan dn n s to lp mu dch : S to lp mu dch l qu trnh xy ra do tc ng ca LMTQ m trao i TM c thit lp hoc SP quc ni ca 1 nc thnh vin trong lin minh khng c LTSS cao c thay th bng SP tng t t 1 nc thnh vin khc trong lin minh nhng c LTSS vi CPSX thp . VD : Nht v cng SX mt hng A c cht lng nh nhau , Nht mc gi l 30 $, mc gi l 20 $ c LTSS v mt hng A Nht s NK A v s XK A . TH 1 : Nht tin hnh nh thu vi mc thu sut l 100 % cho mt hng A Mc gi NK mt hng A t s l 40 $ cao hn mc gi ni a Nht Nht khng tin hnh NK TM khng xy ra TH 2 : Nht v s tin ti thnh lp 1 lin minh thu quan ( mc thu sut hng ha gia v Nht tin ti = 0 cho hng ha gia v Nht c t do lu thng vi nhau ). Khi Nht NK A t vi gi 20 $ thp hn so vi gi ni a Nht s tin hnh NK A t TM c xy ra T TM khng xy ra dn ti TM c xy ra ta gi l s to lp mu dch C 2 TH dn ti s to lp mu dch l : - T TM khng xy ra qua nh lin minh thu quan m dn n TM c xy ra - SP quc ni ca 1 QG thnh vin trong khi lin minh thu quan nhng c chi ph SX cao hn s c thay th bng SP tng t t 1 quc gia trong thnh vin nhng c chi ph SX thp hn . Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch :
Gi s TG gm 3 QG 1,2,3 l cc QG nh, m ca SX SP X vi mc gi ln lt 3 QG l P1 = 1 , P2 = 1,5 v P3 = 3 Trong 3 QG trn th QG 1 c LTSS v SP X v c mc gi nh nht . Th trng hng ha X QG 3 : c biu din bng 1 ng cung (SX ), 1 ng cu (DX)v giao gia 2 ng ny l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X ti QG 3 l E0 . Ti E0, ta xc nh c mc gi CB l 3 . Do cc QG ny u l QG nh cho nn mc gi u c biu din bng cc ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi. C th : QG 1 l P1 = 1 , QG 2 l P2 = 1,5 Trc khi c s to lp mu dch ( cc QG p dng nh thu ) . C th : QG 3 s nh thu hng ha X vi mc thu l 100 % , khi gi NK hh X t QG 1 = 2 v t QG 2 = 3 . Khi QG 3 s NK hh X QG 1 vi PNK = P1NK = 2 Ti PNK = 2 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q2 v tiu dng ti Q3 , NK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 . -
E0
- Sau khi c s to lp mu dch ( Gi s : QG 1 v QG 3 s thnh lp lin minh thu quan ) : Mc thu v hng ha gia QG 1 v QG 3 = 0 v t QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 v vi mc gi PNK = 1 cn vi QG 2 th vn = 3 ( QG 2 l QG ngoi thnh vin nn vn phi chu mc thu NK l 100 % ) Trong TH ny th QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 ( QG c LTSS v SP X ) .
Ti PNK = 1 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q1 v tiu dng ti Q4 , NK 1 lng l Q4 - Q1 Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch : Trc khi c to lp mu dch th gi = 2 Sau khi c s to lp mu dch th gi gim t 2 xung 1 lm cho SX gim ( t Q2 xung Q1 ) v tiu dng tng ( t Q3 ln Q4 ) v NK tng ln t Q3 Q2 ln Q4 Q1 Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi gim t 2 xung 1 ) : - Ngi tiu dng c li ( thng d tiu dng tng ) : SACDH - Ngi sn xut b thit ( thng d SX gim ) : SABHG - Chnh ph b thit ( xa b hng ro thu quan gia cc QGTV CP khng thu c thu ) 1 lng = Tng doanh thu thu = SBCEF - PLR ca NKT : ( + SACDH ) + ( - SABHG ) + ( - SBCEF ) = + ( SBFG + SCED ) PLR tng, NKT c li Trong SBGF + SCED l tng li ch ca s to lp mu dch khi nn KT tham gia vo lin minh thu quan . C th : SBFG l li ch sn xut (chuyn vic SX hh X t QG 3 sang QG 1 l QG c LTSS) SCED l li ch tiu dng ( ngi TD c tiu dng vi lng hh nhiu hn nhng r hn ). Kt lun : - Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch s dn ti thng mi quc t pht trin ( khi lng XNK tng hay Quy m TM tng ) - Thng mi xy ra cc quc gia c LTSS nn li ch t c l ti a - Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch lm cho PLR ca nn kinh t s tng 2. Lin minh thu quan dn n s chuyn hng mu dch : S chuyn hng mu dch l qu trnh xy ra khi NK 1 loi SP t 1 nc bn ngoi LMTQ c CPSX thp hn li b thay th bi NK sn phm cng loi t mt nc trong LMTQ nhng c CPSX cao hn. VD : TG gm c Q G Anh v Php u SX SP B, cht lng ging nhau . Gi B Anh l 120 $ , Php l 100 $ Php c LTSS v SP B . GS M l 1 QG c nhu cu NK SP B : TH1 : M tin hnh nh thu vi mc thu l 50 % / SPNK khi th PNKAnh = 180 $ v PNKPhp = 150 $ Trong TH ny th M s NK SP B t Php vi PNK = 150 $( QG c LTSS v SP B ) TH 2 : M v Anh tin ti thnh lp lin minh thu quan ( thu = 0 ) PNKAnh = 120 $ v PNKPhp = 150 $ Trong TH ny th M s NK SP B t Anh vi PNK = 120 $ ( QG khng c LTSS v SP B ) Thng mi chuyn t 1 QG c LTSS sang 1 QG khng c LTSS chng ta gi l s chuyn hng mu dch ( chuyn quyn trao i mu dch t QG c LTSS sang 1 QG khng c LTSS ) Tc ng ca s chuyn hng mu dch :
Gi s TG gm 3 QG 1,2,3 l cc QG nh, m ca SX SP X vi mc gi ln lt 3 QG l P1 = 1 , P2 = 1,5 v P3 = 3 Trong 3 QG trn th QG 1 c LTSS v SP X v c mc gi nh nht . Th trng hng ha X QG 3 : c biu din bng 1 ng cung (SX ), 1 ng cu (DX)v giao gia 2 ng ny l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X ti QG 3 l E0 . Ti E0, ta xc nh c mc gi CB l 3 . Do cc QG ny u l QG nh cho nn mc gi u c biu din bng cc ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi. C th : QG 1 l P1 = 1 , QG 2 l P2 = 1,5 Trc khi c s chuyn hng mu dch ( cc QG p dng nh thu ) . C th : QG 3 s nh thu hng ha X vi mc thu l 100 % , khi gi NK hh X t QG 1 = 2 v t QG 2 = 3 . Khi QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 vi PNK = P1NK =2 Ti PNK = 2 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q2 v tiu dng ti Q3 , NK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 . -
- Sau khi c s chuyn hng mu dch ( Gi s : QG 3 v QG 2 s thnh lp lin minh thu quan ) : Mc thu v hng ha gia QG 2 v QG 3 = 0 v t QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 v vi mc gi PNK = 2 cn vi QG 2 th vn = 1,5 ( QG 1 l QG ngoi thnh vin nn vn phi chu mc thu NK l 100 % ) Trong TH ny th QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 2 ( QG khng c LTSS v SP X ) Thng mi c s chuyn hng mu dch t QG 1 ( QG c LTSS v SP X ) sang QG 2 ( QG khng c LTSS v SP X ) Ti PNK = 1,5 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q1 v tiu dng ti Q4 , NK 1 lng l Q4 - Q1
Tc ng ca s chuyn hng mu dch : Trc khi c chuyn hng mu dch th gi ni a = 2 Sau khi c s to lp mu dch th gi ni a gim t 2 xung 1,5 lm cho SX gim ( t Q2 xung Q1 ) v tiu dng tng ( t Q3 ln Q4 ) v NK tng ln t Q3 Q2 ln Q4 Q1 Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi gim t 2 xung 1,5 ) : - Ngi tiu dng c li ( thng d tiu dng tng ) : SACTI - Ngi sn xut b thit ( thng d SX gim ) : SABKI - Chnh ph b thit ( xa b hng ro thu quan gia cc QGTV CP khng thu c thu ) 1 lng = Tng doanh thu thu = SBCEF PLR ca NKT = ( + SACTI ) + ( - SABKI ) + ( - SBCMN ) = ( - SMNEF ) + ( SBKN + SCMT ) Kt lun : - Khi 1 QG tham gia vo lin minh thu quan m dn n s chuyn hng mu dch th tc ng n PLR l khng lu di . C th , n c th xy ra 1 trong 2 TH sau : + Nu ( SBKN + SCMT ) > ( SMNEF ) th khi PLR > 0 NKT ca QG 3 s c li + Nu ( SBKN + SCMT ) < ( SMNEF ) th khi PLR < 0 NKT ca QG 3 s chu tn tht - Thng mi xy ra QG khng c LTSS nn khng t c mc li ch ti a - Cng nhiu quc gia tham gia vo khi lin kt KTQT th cng c li cho cc QG thnh vin GS QG 4 c mc gi = 1,1 cng tham gia vo lin minh thu quan gia QG 1 v QG 3 . Trong TH ny th khi lin minh thu quan bao gm 3 QG 2,3 v 4 mc gi QG 4 l 1,1 ; QG 2 l 1,5 ; QG 3 l 3 QG 3 s NK hh X QG 4 ( tng li ch ca ngi tiu dng : SBKN + SCMT tng ln v thit hi rng ca CP : SMNEF s gim Li ch rng s tng ln ) .
??????? Khi tham gia vo lin kt KTQT u c li cho cc QG thnh vin ( SAI ) : Ty vo tng TH : Nu TH dn n s chuyn hng mu dch th li ch rng ca NKT c th suy gim .
Chng V : Di chuyn quc t cc yu t sn xut 5.1 Di chuyn lao ng quc t 5.2 Di chuyn vn quc t. Chng VI : Th trng ngoi hi v t gi hi oi 6.1 Th trng ngoi hi 6.1.1 Khi nim v chc nng ca th trng ngoi hi. 6.1.2 T chc c th trng ngoi hi 6.1.3 Cc b phn ca th trng ngoi hi 6.2 T gi hi oi 6.2.1 Khi nim v t gi hi oi 6.2.2 T gi hi oi v cc giao dch kinh t quc t. 6.2.3 Cc ch t gi hi oi. 6.2.4 T gi hi oi trong di hn. 6.2.5 T gi hi oi trong ngn hn. Chng VII : Cn cn thanh ton quc t 7.1 Khi nim, ni dung v nguyn tc thit lp cn cn thanh ton. 7.2 Cn i cn cn thanh ton. 7.3 iu chnh t gi hi oi di ch t gi hi oi c nh. 7.4 iu chnh t gi v cn cn thanh ton. Chng VIII : Chnh sch kinh t v m trong nn kinh t m 8.1 Chnh sch kinh t v m trong nn kinh t m 8.2 M hnh IS - LM v cc ng cn i bn ngoi.. 8.3 Nhng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t v ti chnh. 8.4 Vn tng hp gia cn i bn trong v bn ngoi. 8.9 Chnh sch tin t v ti chnh: s ph hp v xung t chnh sch. Chng IX : H thng tin t quc t 9.1 Khi nim v phn loi h thng tin t quc t. 9.2 Tiu chun nh gi mt h thng tin t tt.