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CNG HOC PHN (Kinh t quc t)

Chng II : L thuyt v thng mi quc t. Phn 1 : Cc l thuyt thng mi quc t c in :


I. Thuyt trng thng : - T tng kinh t c bn ca ch ngha trng thng : S giu c ca mi quc gia c th hin bng s lng vng, bc tch ly c ca nn kinh t. Cc quc gia mun giu c th phi tch ly nhiu vng, bc bng cch i xm chim thuc a , bun bn trao i vi nc ngoi ( xut khu > nhp khu ) V thng mi quc t : Li nhun ca vic mua bn, trao i hng ha vi nc ngoi c hnh thnh t qu trnh lu thng, t vic mua bn , la gt nhau, trao i khng ngang gi . Thng mi quc t l tr chi c tng s bng 0 bi v li ch ca bn A bng thit hi ca bn B . Cc nc ch trng s dng mt cn cn thng mi thng d V vai tr ca chnh ph : Nh nc can thip vo ngoi thng bng cch thc y xut khu, hn ch nhp khu bng vic s dng cc cng c v thu, phi thu . Quan im v CSTM : Khuyn khch XH cng nhiu cng tt v hn ch NK mc ti a . -nh gi t tng ca thuyt trng thng : + Tin b : Nhn thc ng vai tr quan trng ca ngoi thng i vi s pht trin kinh t , vai tr quan trng ca chnh ph vo cc hot ng kinh t, c bit l trong lnh vc ngoi thng . Ngoi thng l 1 ngun mang li ngun vn xy dng, pht trin kinh t. + Hn ch : Quan nim cha ng v s giu c ca mi quc gia : s giu c ca mi quc gia c nh gi bng s lng vng, bc tnh ly c trong nn kinh t trong khi th s giu c ca mi quc gia phi c nh gi bng ngun nhn lc ca mi quc gia . Thng mi quc t l tr chi c kt qu = 0 : thng mi quc t phi da trn c s nguyn tc 2 bn cng c li ch khng phi li ch ca bn ny c ly t thit hi ca bn kia. Theo quan im ca ch ngha trng thng th vic sn xut v trao i hng ha khng da trn hiu qu sn xut m ch nhm vo thng d thng mi t khng thy c cc quy lut kinh t khch quan. II. L thuyt Li th tuyt i ca Adam Smith : Quan im ca Adam Smith : ng coi nn kinh t ca mi quc gia ch l 1 trt t t nhin , chnh v vy tt cho NKT th phi cho n t do bng Bn tay v hnh c th hin qua cc quy lut kinh t khch quan, t do cnh tranh , t do bun bn m khng c s can thip ca chnh ph Khng th ng nht ti sn quc gia vi vng Sn xut v trao i phi da trn hiu qu sn xut ( NSL cao lm gim CPSX , t li nhun c to ra t qu trnh sn xut ch khng phi l t ngoi thng ) Thng mi phi c li ch cho tt c cc bn tham gia C s ca thng mi cng c li c da trn li th tuyt i ( s trao i , mua bn ca cc quc gia trn th gii phi da trn c s t nguyn, bnh ng , 2 bn cng c li ) . Khi nim li th tuyt i : ( Gi thit lao ng l yu t SX duy nht ) : Mt quc gia c cho l c LTT so vi quc gia khc trong vic sn xut mt hng ha no nu nh vi cng mt n v ngun lc , QG c th sn xut ra nhiu hng ha hn , ngha l c nng sut lao ng cao hn ( chi ph sn xut thp hn ) . C s xc nh LTT : Chi ph tuyt i thp nht ( NSL cao nht ) V d : NSL QG 1 QG 2 SP A a1 a2 SP B b1 b2 QG 1 c li th tuyt i v SP A v khng c LTT v SP B khi a1 > a2 QG 2 c LTT v SP B v khng c LTT v SP A khi b2 > b1

Quy lut li th tuyt i : Gi s c 2 quc gia m mi quc gia c mt li th tuyt i so vi quc gia kia trong vic sn xut mt hng ha th c 2 quc gia s u c li hn nu i vo chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu hng ha m n c li th tuyt i v nhp khu hng ha m n khng c li th tuyt i. C s xc nh LTT l nng sut lao ng cao nht ( hay chi ph sn xut tuyt i thp nht ) . V d : Quy lut li th tuyt i : Nng sut lao ng M Brazil My tnh 6 1 Cafe 4 5 Gi s lao ng l yu t sn xut duy nht , t l trao i hng ha : 1 My tnh = 3 Cafe Nu thng qua thng mi , li ch thng mi ca 2 quc gia nh th no ? Gii : C s thng mi : Li th tuyt i : M c LTT v my tnh v 6 > 1 v khng c LTT v Caf Brazil c LTT v Caf v 5 > 4 v khng c LTT v my tnh Quy lut thng mi : M c LTT v my tnh, M s CMH SX, XK my tnh v NK Caf Brazil c LTT v Caf , Barazil s CMH SX, XK Caf v NK my tnh . Xc nh li ch thng mi : B 1 : Xc nh t l trao i quc t : M : P ( 6 MT ) = P ( 4 CF ) ( MT / CF ) M = 4 / 6 Brazil : P ( 5 CF) = P ( 1 MT ) ( CF / MT )Brazil = 5 / 1. T l trao i quc t : 4/6 < MT / CF < 5/1 Gi s t l trao i hng ha : 1 MT = 3 CF ( MT / CF = 3/1 ) , ta c : Li ch TM M ( nc nhp khu Cafe ) : Nu khng tham gia TMQT m t sn xut ra 1 n v cafe mt 1/4 vl T sn xut ra 1 n v my tnh mt 1/6 vl. Khi thng qua thng mi, t l trao i 1 MT = 3 CF <=> 1 CF = 1/3 MT => sn xut 1 n v Cafe , M cn : 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18 vl Li ch thng mi Brazil ( nc nhp khu My tnh ) : T sn xut ra 1 n v my tnh mt 1 vl T sn xut ra 1 n v cafe mt 1/5 vl . Khi thng qua thng mi, t l trao i 1 MT = 3 CF => sn xut 1 n v my tnh, Brazil cn : 3 x 1/5 = 3/5 vl KL : M s chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu my tnh v nhp khu cafe t Brazil Brazil s chuyn mn ha sn xut v xut khu Cafe v nhp khu my tnh t M. nh gi t tng li th tuyt i ca Adam Smith : Tin b : L thuyt li th tuyt i chng minh c li ch ca thng mi l cho c 2 quc gia tham gia vo thng mi quc t. Nhn thc c tnh u vit ca cng nghip ha sn xut l tit kim lao ng v tng sn lng hng ha . Hn ch : L thuyt li th tuyt i ch gii thch c 1 phn nh ca thng mi quc t , c th : Ch gii thch c thng mi trong trng hp 2 quc gia m mi quc gia phi c 1 li th tuyt i so vi quc gia kia cn trong trng hp mt quc gia so vi quc gia khc khng c li th tuyt i g th thng mi hai nc s nh th no th quyt li th tuyt i ko gii thch c. Da trn gi nh lao ng l yu t sn xut duy nht . Nhn xt : - C s TM : Thng mi da trn c s lao ng tuyt i - M hnh TM : Mi quc gia s xut khu sn phm c LTT v nhp khu sn phm ko c LTT - Gi trao i : nm trong khong chnh lch gi ni a - Li ch TM : TM mang li li ch cho cc bn tham gia ( tr chi c kt cc dng ) - Chuyn mn ha : mi quc gia s chuyn mn ha hon ton vo SP c LTT - Chnh sch ca nh nc : Nh nc khng nn can thip vo thng mi

III. L thuyt Li th tng i ca D. Ricardo : Ricardo cho rng c s ca TMQT khng phi l li th tuyt i m l li th tng i ( li th so snh ) M hnh Ricardo : Th gii ch c 2 nc v sn xut 2 loi hng ha ( n gin ha m hnh , d phn tch v a ra kt lun ) Thng mi l t do ha hon ton gia 2 quc gia ( tru tng li ch ca TMQT ) Chi ph sn xut khng thay i ( CP c hi, CP cn bin ko i ) Chi ph vn ti = 0 ( khng lm tng CP SX ) Lao ng c th di chuyn t do trong nc , nhng khng c php di chuyn gia cc nc Tha nhn l thuyt gi tr lao ng ( tnh gi c hng ha = thi gian lao ng c kt to ra SP ) Khi nim v LTSS : Mt quc gia s c li th so snh so vi quc gia khc trong sn xut mt hng ha khi n sn xut hng ha vi chi ph tng i l thp hn quc gia kia . C s xc nh LTSS : CPSX tng i thp VD : NSL QG1 QG 2 SP A a1 a2 SP B b1 b2 QG 1 xut khu SP A v NK SP B khi : a1 / b1 > a2 / b2 QG 2 XK SP B v NK SP A khi b2 / a2 > b1 / a1 Quy lut li th so snh : Cc quc gia s u c li hn khi i vo CMH sn xut v XK mt hng m h c li th so snh v NK nhng mt hng m h khng c li th so snh. C s xc nh LTSS l chi ph sn xut tng i thp ( nng sut lao ng tng i cao ) V d : NSL M Brazil MT 6 1 Caf 4 2 C s TM : Li th so snh : M c LTSS v my tnh so vi Brazil v 6 > 4 v khng c LTSS v Caf Brazil c LTSS v Caf so vi M v 2 > 1 v khng c LTSS v My tnh Quy lut TM : ( m hnh TM ) : M c LTSS v my tnh M s CMH SX , XK my tnh , NK Caf Brazil c LTSS v Caf Brazil s CMH SX , XK Caf, NK my tnh . Xc nh li ch TM : Gi s t l trao i quc t : 1 Caf = 1 my tnh Ti M : Nu t SX , chi ph SX 1 n v Caf l 1/ 4 n v lao ng Nu thng qua TM , chi ph c 1 n v Caf l 1 / 6 n v lao ng Ti Brazil : Nu t SX , chi ph SX 1 n v my tnh l 1 n v lao ng Nu thng qua TM, chi ph c 1 n v my tnh l 1 /2 n v lao ng Nh vy, c M v Anh u c li hn do tit kim chi ph sn xut nh gi l thuyt LTSS ca Ricardo : Tin b : - L thuyt LTSS mang tnh khi qut hn LTT - L thuyt LTSS chng minh c s ca TMQT l s khc bit v LTSS trong sn xut 1 hng ha no Hn ch : - Trong chi ph sn xut mi ch tnh n 1 yu t duy nht l yu t lao ng do khng tm ra c nguyn nhn s khc nhau v NSL gia cc nc - L thuyt LTSS ng nht cc loi hot ng - Trng hp c bit : Khi NSL ca c 2 quc gia bng nhau th TMQT gia 2 quc gia s khng xy ra chnh v vy trong TH 1 quc gia c bt c 1 LTT no v c 2 mt hng th QG vn c li ch khi tham gia TMQT ngoi tr vic bt LT tng i ny c t l ging nhau c 2 loi hng ha Nhn xt : - C s TM : Thng mi da trn c s LTSS - M hnh TM : Mi quc gia s xut khu sn phm c LTSS v nhp khu sn phm ko c LTSS - Gi trao i : Nm trong khong chnh lch gi ni a

- Li ch TM : TM mang li li ch cho cc bn tham gia ( tr chi c kt cc dng ) - Chuyn mn ha : Mi quc gia s chuyn mn ha hon ton vo SP c LTSS - Chnh sch ca nh nc : Nh nc khng nn can thip vo thng mi - Trng hp c bit : Khi NSL ca c 2 quc gia bng nhau th TMQT gia 2 quc gia s khng xy ra IV. L thuyt Chi ph c hi ca Haberler : Khi nim v chi ph c hi ca hng ha: Chi ph c hi ca 1 hng ha l s lng hng ha khc m nn kinh t buc phi t b dnh ti nguyn cho vic sn xut thm 1 n v hng ha no . Nh vy, bn cht ca khi nim chi ph c hi ca hng ha l c hi b t b khng phi tnh bng s lng yu t sn xut ( v d lao ng ) . Khi nim chi ph c hi khng lin quan n l thuyt gi tr lao ng. Khi nim li th so snh di quan im chi ph c hi : Mt quc gia s c li th tng i so vi quc gia khc trong vic sn xut mt hng ha khi n sn xut hng ha vi chi ph c hi thp. Li th so snh da trn s khc bit v chi ph c hi hay chi ph c hi l c s ca li th so snh . Chi ph c hi l c s ca s la chn v chng ta s la chn sn xut nhng mt hng c chi ph c hi thp V d : NSL I II X Y 6 4 1 2 CPCH ca hng ha Y 2 quc gia : CPCH ( Y/X )I = 6 / 4 CPCH ( Y/X )II = 1 / 2 QG II c LTSS v hng ha Y QG I c LTSS v hng ha X

CPCH ca hng ha X 2 quc gia : CPCH ( X/Y )I = 4 / 6 CPCH ( X/Y )II = 2 / 1 QG I c LTSS v hng ha X QG II c LTSS v hng ha Y

QG I thc hin CMHSX, XK hng ha X, NK hng ha Y QG II thc hin CMHSX, XK hng ha Y, NK hng ha X Li ch thng mi vi chi ph c hi khng i : Gi nh chi ph c hi l khng i ( ng PPF l ng thng ) : Trc khi c thng mi : 1 Quc gia mun tng tiu dng mt hng ha th M Brazil X 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Y 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 X 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Y 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
buc phi gim tiu dng hng ha khc Khi c thng mi : thng mi to kh nng cho cc nc c th tng tiu dng mt hng ha m khng phi gim tiu dng mt hng ha khc C s thng mi : ( CPCH X/Y ) M = 2 /3 ; ( CPCH X / Y ) Brazil = 2 ( CPCH X / Y ) M < ( CPCH X / Y ) Brazil M c LTSS v SP X , khng c LTSS v SP Y Brazil c LTSS v SP Y , khng c LTSS v SP X Quy lut thng mi : M c LTSS v SP X nn M s CMH SX , XK SP X Brazil c LTSS v SP Y nn Brazil s CMH SX, XK SP Y Xc nh t l trao i quc t : ( CPCH X/Y )M = 2 /3 ( PX/Y ) M = 2/3 ( CPCH X/Y )Brazil = 2 ( PX/Y ) Brazil = 2

Dng ng PPF ( Gii hn kh nng sn xut ) : th hin cc kt hp sn lng ti a m 1 nn kinh t c th sn xut c trn c s ngun lc v k thut sn xut sn c . ( CPCH c biu din bng dc ca ng PPF )
Y 120 60 B 90 180 Trc khi c thng mi X 40 A Y M 120 C Brazil 40

D 60

dc ca ng PPF ( M ) ( AB ) = 120 / 180 = 2 / 3 dc ca ng PPF ( Brazil ) ( CD ) = 120 / 60 = 2 T l trao i quc t : 2 / 3 < X / Y < 2
Y 120 70 60 E B 180 X Y

M
F

120

Brazil
F E X 40 60 70

50 40 110

90

Sau khi c thng mi SMDC : Li ch TMQT Y X 120 70 A

70 D 60

SMNC : Li ch TM ca M SNDC : Li ch TM ca Brazil ng BN : ng gi quc t X Nu ng BN lch v ph M th li ch TM ca M s gim xung v ngc li.

Brazil
50

M
O
110

120

B 180
Y

Xc nh li ch thng mi : Trc khi c TMQT ( nn kinh t ng,t cung, t cp ) M : Sn xut = Tiu dng = A ( 90X, 60Y ) Brazil : Sn xut = Tiu dng = A ( 40X, 40Y ) Gi s gi quc t trao i theo t l 1 : 1 ( PW = 1 ) v nn kinh t chuyn mn ha hon ton Ti M : Sn xut = B ( 180 X , 0 Y ) Ti Brazil : Sn xut = C ( 0 X , 120 Y ) Xut khu : 70 X , Nhp khu : 70 Y Xut khu : 70 X, Nhp khu : 70 Y Li ch thng mi quc t : Ti M ( So snh E vi F ) Ti Brazil ( So snh E vi F ) E F = (110 X , 70 Y) - (90 X , 60 Y) E F = ( 70 X ,50Y) ( 40 X , 40 Y) M c li : ( 20 X , 10 Y ) Brazil c li : ( 30 X , 10 Y ) Kt lun : Li ch do qu trnh CMH sn xut m c l nh tit kim lao ng v tng sn lng hng ha nh gi l thuyt CPCH ca Haberler : Tin b : L thuyt CPCH gii thch li th so snh bng khi nim CPCH, khng dng l thuyt gi tr lao ng . L thuyt CPCH dng th chng minh v gii thch quy lut li th tng i lm cho vn tr nn n gin v d hiu hn. Hn ch : Da vo CPCH nhng li l CPCH khng i, iu l khng ng bi v trn thc t th chi ph c hi ngy cng tng. Ch nghin cu n yu t cung ng hng ha ( th hin qua ng PPF ) m cha cp n yu t cu cho nn cha nghin cu c c s xc nh gi c quc t . Tm tt cc l thuyt thng mi quc t c in : Ch ngha trng thng Li th tuyt i ca Li th so snh ca Li th so snh ca A.Smit Ricardo Haberler Khuyn khch nhp khu, XK hng ha c LTT v XK hng ha c LTSS v XK hng ha c CPCH hn ch nhp khu NK hng ha khng c NK hng ha khng c thp hn v NK hng ha LTT. LTSS c CPCH cao hn Cn s can thip ca Khng cn s can thip Khng cn s can thip Khng cn s can thip chnh ph ca CP ca CP ca CP TMQT l tr chi = 0 TMQT c hai bn cng c TMQT tt c cc bn u TMQT tt c cc bn u

li c li c li Kt lun : Khi xem xt cc l thuyt thng mi c in ta nhn thy c 1 s hn ch nht nh : - Nn kinh t sn xut vi chi ph c hi l khng i - Nn kinh t sn xut chuyn mn ha hon ton - Cha tnh n s thch, th hiu ca ngi tiu dng - Ch nghin cu yu t cung T cc hn ch trn, l thuyt thng mi hin i ra i, khc phc c nhng hn ch ca cc l thuyt TMQT c in l : - Nn kinh t sn xut vi chi ph c hi ngy cng tng - Chuyn mn ha khng hon ton - Tnh n s thch, th hiu ca ngi tiu dng - Nghin cu c yu t cung v yu t cu.

Phn 2 : Cc l thuyt thng mi quc t hin i :


V. L thuyt thng mi chun :
Ni dung c bn : Xc nh cn bng tng th ca mt nn kinh t da trn ng gii hn kh nng sn xut ( PPF ) v ng bng quan x hi ( U ) Xc nh cn bng quc t da trn ng cong cho hng ca cc nn kinh t . ng PPF vi chi ph c hi ngy cng tng : Khi nim : Chi ph c hi tng l vic mt quc gia phi hy sinh ngy cng nhiu mt hng ha khng sn xut gii phng ngun lc chuyn sang sn xut thm mt n v hng ha kia. ng PPF l tp hp cc im m ti cc kt hp cc sn xut u ra vi cc ngun lc sn xut u vo l c nh v cho trc. c im ca ng PPF vi CPCH tng : L 1 ng dc xung ( mi quan h ngc chiu gia 2 hng ha ): phn nh chi ph c hi ca 1 hng ha Cc im nm trn ng PPF l im sn xut c hiu qu ( s dng ht cc yu t u vo cho cc SP u ra Cc im nm trong ng PPF l im sn xut lng ph ( khng sd ht ) Cc im nm ngoi ng PPF l cc im m nn kinh t khng th sn xut c
CPCHX = Y 2 Y1 = Y X2 X1 X ( Y , X l dc ca ng cong, phn nh s bin thin ca bin ny so vi bin kia ) .

Chi ph c hi ngy cng tng do : - Ngun lc kinh t l c hn, cho trc - Tnh ring bit ha ca ngun lc u vo.
Y CPCH XA-B = 5 CPCHX-Y = Y / X

65 60 50

CPCH XB-C = 10 CPCH ti im A > CPCH ti im B v dc ng tip tuyn ti im A > dc ng tip tuyn ti im B. X

T l chuyn i bin ( MRT X/Y ) : MRT ca SP X i vi SP Y c biu th qua sn lng sn phm Y m quc gia cn phi b ra SX thm 1 n v SP Y MRT c o bng nghing tuyt i ca ng PPF ti im sn xut . Nu MRT X/Y = 1 / 4 th c ngha l quc gia phi hy sinh 1 / 4 n v SP Y SX thm 1 n v SP X
MRTX/Y = MC X MC Y

im sn xut ti u : im sn lng ti u t c khi chi ph trung bnh bng chi ph bin, khi chi ph sn xut trn tng n v sn phm mc thp nht. iu kin im sn xut ti u : MRTX/Y = PX / Y MRTX/Y = CPCH X/Y = PX / PY = dc PPF

ng bng quan x hi : ( U ) Khi nim : ng bng quan l mt tp hp cc la chn v lng gia hai hng ha khc nhau nhng cng cho mt mc hiu dng bng nhau .

Cc ng bng quan U1, U2 , U3

ng ngn sch : ng MN A Tnh cht : M I ng bng quan thng dc xung , ng cong li ( biu = X Xdc m ) . th . P + Y.PY C im sn Cc im nm trn cng 1 B ng U c mcU tha mn nh nhau .xut ti u : im B B B 3 Cc ng U cng xa gc ta th tha dng cng cao CPCH<X/Y 2 < U3 = dc ng U ti B ( U1 U= P X/Y ) U2 Cc ng U khng bao gi ct nhau U1 PX/Y = dc ng MN T l thay th bin ( MRSX-Y ) : PX/Y = T l thay th bin x/y ti B ( MRSX/Y) N X L dc ca ng bng quan c gi l t l thay th bin ca hng tiu dng. y l t l m theo , ngi tiu dng sn lng gim lng hng ha ny c th tng mt n v lng hng ha kia. Thng thng, ng bng quan l mt ng cong (do t l thay th bin khng c nh) v li (v t l thay th bin c xu hng gim dn) MRS X/ Y = MU X MU Y im tiu dng ti u : l tip im gia ng ngn sch ( MN ) v ng bng quan li ch ( U ) iu kin im tiu dng ti u ( ti a ha li ch ) : MRSX/Y = PX / PY

Cn bng tng th trong nn kinh t : a. Trng hp nn kinh t ng ( Sn xut = Tiu dng )


Y Nn kinh t ng l NKT t cung , t cp ( SX ra ci g th tiu th ci , khng c thng mi ) im cn bng trong nn kinh t ng l im A ( im tip xc gia ng U2 v ng PPF ) Ta c : PA ( XA , YA ) = dc ng tip tuyn chung ( PPF v U) ti A . dc ca A = MRSX/Y =MRT X/Y = PX / PY = mc sn lng t cung, t cp

YA

A U2 U1 XA

U3

PPF
X

iu kin ti u nn kinh t : MRTX/Y = MRSX/Y = PX/Y b. Trng hp nn kinh t m v nh : ( Li ch TM vi chi ph c hi tng ) : Nn kinh t m l nn kinh t c trao i hng ha ( giao thng ) vi bn ngoi Nn kinh t nh ( da vo khi lng X , NK hng ha trn th gii ) l nn kinh t phi chp nhn gi th gii khi m ca . V d : Vit Nam l 1 nc nh trong th trng t th gii nhng li l 1 nc ln trn th trng go Trc khi c thng mi ( nn kinh t ng ) :
Trc khi c TM : SX = TD im cn bng ca : QG1 : A(50X,60Y) U1 PX/Y = 1/4 QG2 : A(80X,40Y) U1 PX/Y = 4

Sau khi c thng mi ( nn kinh t m ) :


Sau khi c TM ( nn KT m v nh ) : C s TM : QG1 : c LTSS trong SXSPX QG2 : c LTSS trong SXSPY M hnh TM : QG1 : CMH sx , XK SP X, NK SP Y QG2 : CMH sx, XK SP Y, NK SP X

Xc nh im chuyn mn ha ( Chuyn mn ha sn xut khng hon ton ) QG1 : B ( 130 X , 20 Y ) QG2 : B ( 40 X , 120 Y ) Trao i thng mi : Khi t do TM : Pwx/y = PBx/y = PBx/y = 1 Gi s t l trao i l 60 X = 60 Y im tiu dng sau thng mi : QG 1 : E ( 70 X , 80 Y ) U2 QG 2 : E ( 100 X, 60 Y ) U2 C 2 im tiu dng sau TM u thuc ng U xa gc ta hn nn c tha dng ln hn Tiu dng sau TM ca mi quc gia tng thm l 20 X , 20 Y Kt lun : C 2 quc gia u c li t thng mi ng cong cho hng v cn bng quc t : a. Gi c sn phm cn bng ( Phn tch cn bng cc b )
Th trng quc gia 1 v hh X Th trng quc t v hh X Th trng quc gia 2 v hh X

Cn bng ni a : QD = QS Cn bng quc t : QNK = QXK Hm cung XK : QXK = S1 D1 Hm cu NK : QNK = D2 S2 b. Cn bng quc t v ng cong cho hng : Khi nim : ng cong cho hng l tp hp cc im biu th ton b s lng hng ha m mt nn kinh t sn sng cung ng XK i ly 1 s lng hng ha NK nhng t l trao i nht nh . C s xc nh : ng PPF ( Sn sng XK ) ng bng quan ( Sn sng NK ) Cc mc gi quc t khc nhau

PB = 1 P2x/y

PWx/y

PF PA P1x/y

Cn bng quc t : im CB : M(M) [ 60 X , 60 Y ] l giao im ca 2 ng cong cho hng ca 2 quc gia Gi QT : PWx/y = dc ng ni gc (O) v im CB = dc ng OM = S lng XNK Y / S lng XNK X Cn bng ni a : P1x/y = dc ng tip tuyn vi CCH(1) ti gc O iu kin TM : P1x/y < PW x/y < P2 x/y

nh gi l thuyt thng mi chun : Tin b : L thuyt TM chun a ra cc gii thch tiu chun v thng mi, c th : CPCH tng , chuyn mn ha khng hon ton , c tnh n s thch, th hiu N cng cho bit mc chuyn mn ha khi c thng mi, khi lng hng ha thng mi, thng d thng mi v phn chia thng d ny cho mi quc gia Hn ch : Cha gii thch c nguyn nhn dn n li th so snh Cha kim nghim nh hng ca TMQT i vi thu nhp hoc ngun lc ca sn xut trong 2 quc gia . L thuyt Heckscher Ohlin : T tng c bn ca l thuyt H O : Mi hng ha khc nhau s dng cc yu t sn xut khc nhau Cc quc gia khc nhau th kh nng cung cp cc yu t sn xut cng khc nhau Mi quc gia nn CMHSX , XK cc SP tp trung cc yu t d tha ca quc gia v nn nhp khu cc SP tp trung cc yu t thiu ht ca quc gia . Nhng gi nh ca m hnh H O : 1.Th gii gm 2 QG , sn xut 2 hng ha v s dng 2 yu t SX ( K v L ) : nhm n gin ha m hnh tuy nhin khng lm mt i tnh khi qut. 2.Hai QG c cng trnh k thut cng ngh : 2 QG s s dng cng 1 sn lng lao ng v t bn nh nhau sn xut 1 n v SP 3.Sn xut trong iu kin t sut li nhun khng i theo quy m : S tng ln v s lng L v TB SX bt c SP no u lm tng s lng SP . 4.Chuyn mn ha sn xut khng hon ton ( CPCH ngy cng tng ) 5.Hai hng ha , SP X cha ng hm lng L ln hn th SP Y phi cha ng hm lng K tng i ln hn . ( L / K )X > ( L / K )Y th ( K / L ) Y > ( K / L )X 6.Cnh tranh hon ho cc nc v tt c cc th trng : Th trng c rt nhiu ngi mua v ngi bn, cc SP l ng nht . Cc quc gia phi chp nhn gi 7.Cc YTSX c t do di chuyn trong nc nhng khng di chuyn gia cc quc gia 8.Hai quc gia c cng s thch tiu dng ( 2 QC c cng 1 biu ng U ) 9.Chi ph vn ti = 0 : CMH SX c tip tc cho n khi gi c SP so snh l nh nhau c 2 quc gia 10.Thng mi t do hon ton ( Thu quan = 0 ) Khi nim yu t tp trung v yu t d tha : Khi nim yu t tp trung trong hng ha : - SP X l hng ha tp trung yu t lao ng ( L )
-

( L / K) X > ( L / K) Y
( K / L) Y > ( K / L )X

SP Y l hng ha tp trung yu t vn ( K ) L 2 K 3

V d : H s sn xut Hng ha X

Hng ha Y 3 5 Trong qu trnh SX SP X tp trung nhiu yu t L ( lao ng ) hn v ( L / K )X = 2/3 > ( L / K )Y = 3/5 Trong qu trnh SX SP Y tp trung nhiu yu t K ( vn ) hn v ( K / L )X = 3/2 < ( K / L )Y = 5/3 Khi nim yu t d tha mt quc gia : Gi s QG 1 c kh nng cung ng di do v lao ng ( L ), QG 2 c kh nng cung ng di do v vn ( K ) Ta c : Da vo cung YTSX ( L / K ) 1 > ( L / K) 2 QG 1 d tha ( L ) khi :
Da vo gi c YTSX (PL / PK )1 < ( PL / PK ) 2 ( w / r) 1 < (w / r) 2

P L : Tnh bng tin lng ( w ) PK : Tnh bng tin thu t bn hay li sut ( r ) QG 2 d tha ( K ) khi :
Da vo cung YTSX ( K / L) 2 > ( K / L) 1 ( PK / PL ) 1 < ( PK / P2 ) L ( r / w)1 < ( r / w)2

Da vo gi c YTSX

Ch : C s xc nh yu t d tha l cn c vo t l tng i gia L v K ca 2 quc gia. M hnh thng mi Heckecher Ohlin : nh l 1 : nh l Rybzinski : Ni dung : Vi 1 H s sn xut cho trc v 2 yu t sn xut c s dng ng thi v y , th khi tng cung cp mt yu t u vo lm tng sn lng sn phm tp trung yu t gia tng v gim tng i sn lng sn phm khc. Chng minh nh l : Gi s nn kinh t c cung cp 900 L v 600 K H s SX L K Thp ( T ) 2 3 Vi ( V ) 4 1 Bc 1 : Xc nh ng gii hn L : Gi s nn kinh t ch s dng 1 yu t l 900 L th ti a SX c : Thp = 450 ( im A ) ; Vi = 225 ( im B ) ng gii hn ( L ) : AB Bc 2 : Xc nh ng gii hn K : Gi s nn kinh t ch s dng 1 yu t l 600 K th ti a SX c : Thp = 200 ( im C); Vi = 600 ( im D ) ng gii hn ( K ) : CD Bc 3 : Xc nh ng gii hn ( L v K ) : Khi nn kinh t s dng ng thi 900 L v 600 K th ng gii hn ( K,L) l CEB ( 200 T, 225 V ) Bc 4 :Nn KT c tng cung L ln 1200 L v 600 K th : ng CD khng i ng AB dch sang phi sang MN ( 300 V , 600 T ) ng gii hn ( K,L) mi l CHN ti a SX c ( 200 T, 300 V ) NX : Nu tng cung L th sn lng vi ( V ) tng t 225 ln 300 , sn lng thp ( T ) gim tng i t 200/225 xung cn 200/300 Vi 1 h s SX cho trc, 2 yu t SX c s dng y , th khi tng cung cp 1 yu t u vo, lm tng sn lng sn phm tp trung yu t gia tng v gim tng i sn lng sn phm khc. Ban u, ng ( K,L ) l CEB . Tng cung L, dn n QG1 d tha L. Khi , ng gii hn ( K,L) l CHN nghing v trc biu th Vi ( tp trung yu t L )
ngha : Hnh dng ng PPF ph thuc vo cung YTSX , mt quc gia d tha YTSX no th ng PPF nghing v hng ha tp trung YTSX . Mt QG c LTSS v sn phm tp trung yu t m QG d tha. Nh hnh bn th ta c : QG 1 thc hin CMHSX v XK SP X tp trung ( L ) yu t ( d tha ) , NK SP Y tp trung ( K ) yu t khan him . C 2 QG u c li t TM

nh l Heckcher Ohlin : Ni dung : Cc quc gia s c li ch trong TMQT nu thc hin cmh sn xut v xut khu sn phm tp trung yu t m QG d tha v nhp khu sn phm tp trung yu t m QG khan him . Chng minh nh l : Gi s QG I d tha v lao ng ( L ) v QG II d tha v vn ( K ) X l hng ha tp trung nhiu ( L ) cn Y l hng ha tp trung nhiu ( K) Ta cn chng minh : QG I xut khu X , nhp khu Y v QG II xut khu Y, nhp khu X ng ngha vi vic chng minh l : QG I c LTSS v SP X v QG II c LTSS v SP Y. Ta c : ng PPF ca QG I nghing gn trc honh biu th s lng SP X ng PPF ca QG II nghing gn trc tung biu th s lng SP Y Hai quc gia c th hiu tiu dng ging nhau nn 2 QG c ng bng quan U1 ging nhau Trc khi c TM ( SX = TD ti tip xc ca U v PPF )
(PNX/Y)II Trc khi c TM

A A
U1

(PNX/Y)I
ng bng quan U1 tip xc vi ng PPF ca quc gia 1 ti A, vi PPF ca QG 2 ti A. im A v A l im cn bng t cung t cp ca quc gia 1 v quc gia 2. Xc nh gi cn bng = dc ca ng tip tuyn chung ca U v PPF : QG I : Gi cn bng ( MRT X / Y )I = ( PNX/Y ) I QG II : Gi cn bng ( MRT X / Y )II = ( PNX/Y ) II ( PNX/Y )I < ( PNX/Y )II ( v ng ( PNX/Y )I c dc nh hn ng ( PNX/Y )II ) QG I CMH SX SP X QG II CMH SX SP Y

Sau khi c TM :

Khi c TM

QG I chuyn mn ha SX SP X v QG II chuyn mn ha SP Y . im sn xut ca QG I di chuyn xung di , CPCH ca SP X tng dn im sn xut ca QG II di chuyn ln trn, CPCH ca SP X gim dn (CPCH ca SP Y tng dn) Chuyn mn ho din ra cho ti khi chi ph c hi ca X ti hai quc gia cn bng: QG I sn xut ti B, QG II sn xut ti B: PB = PB. Trn th mc gi PB = PB c biu th bng nghing ca 2 tip tuyn: PB PB QG I xut khu SP X (BC) v nhp khu SP Y (CE), t ti tiu dng ti E trn ng bng quan U2 (tam gic mu dch BCE). QG II xut khu SP Y (BC) v nhp khu SP X (CE), tiu dng ti E trn ng bng quan U2 (tam gic mu dch BCE). E trng vi E . Tam gic mu dch BCE = BCE

Ti E v E trn ng bng quan U2, tho mn tiu dng ca quc gia 1 v quc gia 2 u cao hn so vi ti A v A trn bng quan U1 C hai quc gia cng c li t mu dch.

nh l Stoper Samuelson Ni dung: Mt s tng ln trong gi c tng i ca mt loi hng ha lm tng thu nhp thc t ca yu t c s dng tp trung sn xut hng ha v gim tng i thu nhp ca yu t khc. Gi thit : X l hng ha tp trung L ;Y l hng ha tp trung K ; P ( X / Y ) tng Kt lun : Thu nhp thc t ca lao ng tng Thu nhp thc t ca t bn gim Ta c : ( TNTT L = w / p = tin lng / gi c ) tng (w / r = tin lng / tin thu vn ) tng P ( X/ Y) tng (r / w = tin thu vn / tin lng ) gim
( TNTTK = r / p = tin thu vn / gi c ) gim T l w/r chuyn ng cng chiu vi P X/Y (r / w = tin thu vn / tin lng ) tng (w / r = tin lng / tin thu vn ) gim T l r/w chuyn ng cng chiu vi PY/X

P ( Y/ X ) tng

( TNTT L = w / p = tin lng / gi c ) gim ( TNTTK = r / p = tin thu vn / gi c ) tng

Chng minh: Gi c cc yu t SX: Gi thu L (PL): w (Tin lng) Gi thu K (PK): r (Li sut) Ta c cn chng minh : Khi mc lng ( w ) tr nn r hn tng i so vi gi thu t bn ( r ) th sn phm tp trung L s r hn tng i so vi sn phm tp trung K Ta c SP X l SP tp trung L . Khi PX tng tng i so vi PY ( P ( X / Y ) tng ): Cc DN SX X s tin hnh m rng SX Cc DN phi tp trung u t ng thi 2 yu t u vo ( K , L ) Mt khc, X l SP tp trung L Cu v L tng tng i so vi K w tng tng i so vi gi thu t bn K ( r ) ( PX / PY ) tng w / r tng d. nh l 4 : nh l cn bng gi c cc yu t SX : Ni dung : TMTD lm cn bng gi c cc YTSX , v vy n ng vai tr thay th cho s di chuyn cc YTSX. Chng minh : Trn biu , gi c so snh ca lao ng ( w/r ) c o bng trc honh v gi c so snh ca SP X ( PX / PY ) c o bng trc tung . Trc khi c mu dch : QG I s im A , vi w/r = ( w/r)1 v PX / PY = PAX/Y QG II s im A, vi w/r = ( w/r)2 v PX / PY = PAX/Y

Khi c mu dch: V ( w/r)1 < ( w/r)2 v PAX/Y < PAX/Y nn : QG I c LTSS v SP X QG I s CMH SX SP X v gim bt SP XP Y ,cu lao ng tng ln tng i so vi cu t bn v ( w/r) tng QG I PAX/Y tng ln im cn bng di chuyn ln trn . QG II c LTSS v SP Y QG II s CMH SX SP Y v gim bt SX SP X , cu t bn tng ln tng i so vi cu lao ng v (r/w ) tng QG II PAY/X tng ln PA X/Y gim xung im cn bng di chuyn xung di. Qu trnh ny c tip tc cho n khi t ti im B = B , ti PB = PB v w/r = W/r c 2 quc gia Nh vy, PX / PY s cn bng nh l kt qu ca mu dch v iu ny cng lm cho w/r tr nn cn bng 2 quc gia.

Chng III : Chnh sch thng mi


3.1 Khi nim v nhng xu hng cn bn trong chnh sch thng mi 3.1.1 Khi nim :
Chnh sch TMQT l h thng cc nguyn tc, cng c v bin php thch hp m nh nc p dng iu chnh cc hot ng ngoi thng ca mt QG trong mt thi k nht nh nhm t c mc tiu t ra trong chin lc pht trin kinh t - x hi ca quc gia . Chnh sch TMQT l 1 b phn trong chnh sch kinh t i ngoi trong nh nc mun can thip vo nn kinh t bng cch ra cc chnh sch kinh t ( chnh sch kinh t i ni v chnh sch kinh t i ngoi ) Trong , chnh sch kinh t i ngoi ( cc chnh sch iu chnh hot ng ngoi thng ) bao gm : Thng mi quc t, hp tc u t quc t , hp tc kinh t trao i KH CN , di chuyn quc t v lao ng, ti chnh quc t Chnh sch TMQT l 1 h thng cc cng c, bin php thch hp m nh nc ra. Cc cng c bao gm Theo tnh cht : - Cng c, bin php kinh t : + Chnh sch t gi ( E ) : E tng XK tng NK gim v ngc li + Chnh sch li sut ( i ) : tc ng vo chi ph sn xut : i tng DN thu hp SX XK gim, NK tng v ngc li - Cng c, bin php hnh chnh : + Hn ngch ( Quota) - Cng c, bin php k thut : Cc tiu chun v k thut nh ng gi, bao b, cht lng hng ha XNK Theo mc ch : - Cng c, bin php thc y XK : tng t gi, tr cp XK - Cng c hn ch NK : Gim t gi, p dng hn ngch NK Theo cch thng thng : - Cng c thu quan ( thu NK v thu XK ) - Cng c phi thu quan : Tt c cc cng c - cng c thu quan nh hn ngch, t gi

3.1.2 : Nhng xu hng c bn trong chnh sch thng mi :


Chnh sch thng mi bao gm 2 xu hng : Thng mi t do : L chnh sch thng mi trong chnh ph hon ton khng p dng cc bin php hng ro TM ( hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan ) hng ha c t do lu thng gia th trng trong nc v th trng ngoi nc. - u im ca TMTD : + Thc y TMQT pht trin : hng ha trong nc s c t do lu thng gia cc nc khc lm cho s lng hng ha XNK ngy cng tng + Thc y SX trong nc pht trin : thng qua vic cnh tranh gia cc DN trong nc vi cc DN nc ngoi, cc DN trong nc buc phi ci tin SX nng cao cht lng hng ha, dch v t cc DN trong nc c th NK nhng NVL vi gi thnh r nc ngoi hoc l c th m rng thm th trng tiu th nh XK nhng sn phm hng ha ra nc ngoi + Tha mn ti a nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng : Hng ha t th trng nc ngoi rt a dng v mu m, cht lng c th c lu thng rng ri trn th trng trong nc nh c TMTD - Nhc im ca TMTD : + Nn kinh t d b ri vo khng hong do nn kinh t trong nc ch nh hng rt nhiu t NKT nc ngoi chnh v th khi cc DN trong nc lun phi ng trc s cnh tranh ht sc to ln t cc DN nc ngoi. Khi m cc DN trong nc ko th ng vng trc s cnh tranh th kinh t trong nc s c th b ri vo khng hong. Bo h mu dch l chnh sch thng mi trong chnh ph p dng cc bin php hng ro TM ( hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan ) bo v nn SX ni a trc s cnh tranh ca hng ha NK. - u im ca bo h mu dch : + Cc DN trong nc c nh nc bo h trc cc DN nc ngoi + Nn kinh t di s iu tit ca chnh ph nn pht trin n nh

- Nhc im ca bo h mu dch : Nn SX ni a chm pht trin, khng nng ng, sng to ; khng tip thu c nhng tin b KHKT trn th gii p dng vo sn xut trong nc Trong thc t, 2 xu hng thng mi t do v bo h mu dch tri ngc nhau nhng khng mu thun nhau. Cc quc gia trn th gii u p dng ng thi c 2 xu hng.

3.2 Cc cng c ca chnh sch thng mi 3.2.1 Thu quan


a. Khi nim : Thu quan l mt loi thu gin thu p dng i vi hng ha XNK khi qua ca khu hi quan ca mt quc gia . Thu gin thu : B = T G T bao gm : - Td ( thu trc thu ) : l thu c nh hng trc tip n thu nhp ca ngi np thu ( ngi np v ngi chu thu l 1 ) - Te ( thu gin thu ) : khng nh hng n thu nhp ca ngi np , ch tc ng n gi tiu dng ( ngi np thu khc ngi chu thu ). p dng thu quan nh hng n Te ( nh hng n gi tiu dng ) Mc ch nh thu : Tng thu ngn sch ( thu quan ti chnh ) ; bo h th trng ni a ( thu quan bo h ) i tng nh thu : i vi hng ha XK ( thu quan XK ) ; i vi hng ha NK ( l ch yu ) ; i vi hng ha qu cnh ( thu quan qu cnh ) b. Phn loi thu quan : Theo mc ch : - Thu quan ti chnh : p dng nhm tng thu ngn sch nh nc ( thu tng thu NSNN ) - Thu quan bo h : nhm mc ch bo h nn SX trong nc ( s dng nhm mc ch bo v nn SX trong nc c kh nng cnh tranh vi nc ngoi hoc l trng hp tr a thng mi hoc trong trng hp chng bn ph gi ) Theo i tng : - Thu quan XK : p dng i vi hng ha XK ( nh vo hng ha ca cc DN SX cc mt hng XK trong nc ) - Thu quan NK : p dng i vi hng ha NK ( nh vo DN XK nc ngoi khi xut khu hng ha vo nc mnh ) - Thu quan qu cnh : p dng i vi hng ha i qua ca khu ca 1 nc th 3 Theo mc thu : - Thu u i : p dng i vi hng ha c xut x t cc nc c quan h ng minh hoc c hng quy ch ti hu quc ( MFN ) - Thu quan thng thng : p dng i vi hng ha XNK thng thng theo cc biu thu quan ring ca tng nc - Thu quan ti a : p dng i vi hng ha c xut x t cc nc c quan h i nghch hoc khng c hng . Theo phng php : - Thu t l ( t ) : l t l % thu tnh theo gi hng NK ( thu gi tr ) - Thu n v ( T ) : l s n v tin t c quy nh r trong mi n v hng NK - Thu hn hp : p dng ng thi c 2 phng php trn. c. Tc ng ca thu quan i vi nn kinh t ( Tc ng ca thu nhp khu i vi nn kinh t ) : Trng hp 1 : Tc ng cc b ca thu quan i vi quc gia nh :
QG nh l QG khng c kh nng tc ng n gi quc t, v vy c khi lng XNK nh trn th trng quc t . Xt 1 NKT nh, m ca, sn xut v trao i SP X : Trc khi c thu ( TM t do ) : Xt QGA: nh , m ca PCB = P3 PW = P1 E0 PW < PCB QG A s NK SP X vi PNK = P1

Ti P1 : Nn kinh t SX ti im Q1 v TD ti im Q4 Vy, QG A NK : Q4 Q1 ( DG ) Sau khi c thu : Chnh ph p dng T = a USD/SFNK : PtNK = P2 = P1 + T / SPNK.

Ti P2 : Nn kinh t SX ti im Q2 v TD ti im Q3

Tc ng ca thu quan n nn kinh t : Gi tng t P1 ln P2 ( mc tng = mc thu ) . - Sn xut trong nc tng t Q1 ln Q2 , tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 , sn lng nhp khu gim t ( Q4 Q1) xung cn ( Q3 Q2 ) - Ngi tiu dng : ( thng d tiu dng ( CS ) = trn gi di cu ) : = SKHCD Trc khi c thu : QG A tiu dng : SKDH Sau khi c thu : QG A tiu dng : SKCA Thng d tiu dng ( Ngi tiu dng b thit do CS gim ) : CS = SKDH - SKCA = SACDH - Ngi sn xut ( thng d sn xut ( PS ) = trn cung di gi ) : = SABHG Trc khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJHG Sau khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJAB Thng d sn xut ca ( Ngi sn xut li do PS tng ) : PS = SJAB SJHG = SABHG - Chnh ph : ( cc khon thu thu v cho NSNN ) : Chnh ph c li = DTT = T/SPNK QNK = ( P1 - P2). ( Q3 Q2 ) = SBCEF - Phc li rng ca nn kinh t = ( - SACDH ) + ( SABHG ) + ( SBCEF ) = - ( SBFG + SECD ) Phn tn tht do thu l : ( SBFG + SECD ) Kt lun : i vi quc gia nh khi p dng thu NK : PtNK = PW + T/SFNK Nn kinh t lun chu tn tht do thu gy ra Trng hp 2 : Tc ng cc b ca thu quan i vi quc gia ln : Quc gia ln l quc gia c kh nng tc ng n gi quc t, v vy c khi lng XNK ln trn th trng quc t .
Xt QGB: ln , m ca PX

G P0 P3 A

E0

SX

B F

C E D

PtNK PWt do PtXK

P1 I P2 K

H N M

DX

Q1 Q2

Q3

Q4

QX

Th trng ni a QG ln
- Tc ng n th trng quc t : Khi QG B nh thu T/ SFNK = PtNK PtXK DTT = (PtNK PtXK ) . QNK - Tc ng n quc gia ln : Trc khi c thu ( thng mi t do ) QG B sn xut ti im Q1 v tiu dng ti im Q4 . Khi lng NK ca QG B l : Q4 Q1 ( DH ) Khi quc gia ln p dng thu quan : QG B sn xut ti im Q2 v tiu dng ti im Q3 . Khi lng NK ca QG B l : Q3 Q2 Vy, sau khi p dng thu quan : Sn xut ca QG B tng t Q1 ln Q2 ; Tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 v ko theo sn lng NK gim t ( Q4 Q1 ) xung cn ( Q3 Q2 ) Phc li rng ca nn kinh t :

Ngi tiu dng : ( thng d tiu dng ( CS ) = trn gi di cu ) : = SACDI Trc khi c thu : QG B tiu dng : SIDG Sau khi c thu : QG B tiu dng : SICA Thng d tiu dng ( Ngi tiu dng b thit do CS gim ) : CS = SKDH - SKCA = SACDI - Ngi sn xut ( thng d sn xut ( PS ) = trn cung di gi ) : = SABHI Trc khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJHG Sau khi c thu : QG A sn xut : SJAB Thng d sn xut ca ( Ngi sn xut li do PS tng ) : PS = SJAB SJHG = SABHI - Chnh ph : ( cc khon thu thu v cho NSNN ) : Chnh ph c li = DTT = T/SPNK QNK = ( P2 - P3). ( Q3 Q2 ) = SBCMN - Phc li rng ca nn kinh t = ( + SFEMN ) + ( - SBFH+ CED ) ?????? p dng chnh sch thu NK lun gy tn tht cho nn kinh t ( Sai ) : V ch i vi QG nh khi p dng chnh sch thu NK mi phi chu tn tht cn i vi quc gia ln th ty tng trng hp c th thit, c th c li . Trng hp 3. Tc ng tng th ca thu quan i vi quc gia nh : Nghin cu QGII d tha v K , sn xut 2 loi hng ha : hng ha X tp trung L v hng ha Y tp trung K ng PPF ca QG II c dng lm v pha trc Y ( ng PPF lm v pha trc hng ha tp trung yu t d tha ca QG )
Trc khi c thu : ( thng mi t do ) Khi TMTD : QG II c LTSS v SP Y M hnh TM ca QG II : CMH,SX, XK SP Y ; NK SP X ( CMH : tng s lng SXSP Y so vi nn kinh t ng , do ngun lc kinh t c hn cho nn khi Y tng th X gim ) Vi mc gi th gii PWX/Y , khi t do TM th QG II ( QG nh ) s phi chp nhn gi th gii vy th gi ni a s ngang bng vi gi th gii tc l PWX/Y = (PX/Y)1 . Vi ng gi th gii ny chng ta xc nh c im sn xut ti u l im A1 tip xc gia ng PPF v ng gi th gii PW . T im sn xut A1 QG II s tin hnh xut khu A1K sn phm Y ng thi nhp khu v KE sn phm X im E l im tiu dng ti u ca QG II.

Sau khi c thu ( gi s QG II nh thu NK vi SP X ) :


- Tc ng n gi ni a : Khi nh thu NK i vi SP X Gi ca X tng ln PX/Y tng ln = (PX/Y)2 dc ca (PX/Y)2 s ln hn dc ca (PX/Y)1 ???? Khi p dng thu lm gi ni a tng :( Sai ) : V khi p dng thu th gi ca X so vi Y tng cn gi ca Y so vi X khng gim . p dng thu NK lm cho gi ca hng NK tng. - Tc ng n sn xut : Vi mc gi ni a ca X l (PX/Y)2 ta xc nh c im sn xut ti u sau khi c thu chnh l im A2 ( sn lng hng ha X tng, sn lng hng ha Y gim ) so vi im A1 V khi gi ca hng ha X tng ln, cc DN sn xut trong

nc s tng cng sn xut SP X , m do ngun lc kinh t l c hn nn khi X tng th Y gim . Ti A2 , thu quan lm o ngc phn cng lao ng theo quy lut LTSS bi v : Theo quy lut LTSS th trc khi c thu QG II s CMH SX, XK SP Y ( SP Y tng ), NK SP X m do ngun lc KT c hn nn SP X s phi gim . Sau khi c thu , do hng ha X tng vy sn lng hng ha X s phi tng , mt khc ngun lc kinh t c hn nn sn lng hng ha Y s phi gim - Tc ng n thng mi quc t :

Sau khi c thu, im SX ti u l im A2 , t im A2 , QG II s xut khu 1 lng l A2L SP Y ng thi NK v LH SP X . So snh vi trc khi c thu ( so snh vi A1 ) ta thy, khi lng XNK gim ( quy m thng mi gim ) Thu quan lm ( gim ) thu hp quy m thng mi . - Tc ng n tiu dng : im tiu dng ti u sau khi c thu : iu kin tiu dng ti u : MRSX/Y = PX/Y m sau khi c thu, gi ni a l (PX/Y)2 vy im tiu dng ti u l H. QG II nhp khu v 1 lng l LH SP X nhng ch tiu dng 1 lng l LH SP X , vy on HH ri vo tay chnh ph ( tng doanh thu thu ) - Tc ng n thu nhp ( thu nhp t cc yu t SX w v r ) : Trc khi c thu, QG II CMH SX , XK SP Y lm cho ( PY/X) ( r / w) TNTT ca ch TB ng thi TNTT ca ngi lao ng Sau khi c thu gi ca hng ha X tng ( PX/Y) ( w/r) TNTT ca ngi lao ng ng thi TNTT ca ch TB . Thu quan thc hin chc nng phn phi li thu nhp ( chuyn 1 phn thu nhp ca ch TB sang ngi lao ng ) . ????? p dng cc cng c ca chnh sch TMQT s lm tng quy m thng mi . Sai : V thu quan l 1 cng c ca chnh sch thng mi . Trng hp 4 : Tc ng tng th ca thu quan i vi quc gia ln : Quy m thng mi( t l trao i ) : Khi lng XNK ca 1 quc gia ti 1 mc gi c quc t nht nh ( Quy m thng mi tng th li ch kinh t ca quc gia s tng Phc li rng tng ) . iu kin thng mi ( h s TM ) : iu kin TM ca 1 nc l t s gia gi hng XK vi gi hng NK ca 1 quc gia .
N = PX / PM 100 % PX : Gi hng XK PM : Gi hng NK PX = Xi . Pi Xi : T trng XK hng ha th i N : iu kin thng mi

Xt m hnh 2 quc gia , mi quc gia ch sn xut 2 hng ha : QG I : CMH SX, XK SP X, NK SP Y iu kin thng mi ca QG I : N = PX / PY QG II : CMH SX, XK SP Y, NK SP X iu kin thng mi ca QG II : N = PY / PX .
Khi tham gia CMH SX th gi ca hng ha c li th so snh s tng ( QG c li )

Khi iu kin thng mi tng th phc li rng ca nn kinh t s tng ln.


Tc ng n th trng quc t : - Trc khi c thu ( TM t do ) : im M l im cn bng trn th trng QT , t im M ta xc nh c khi lng XNK hng ha X v Y l (60X,60Y). Gi quc t : PWX/Y = 1 - Sau khi c thu : GS QG 2 p dng thu NK i vi SP X ng cong cho hng ca QG 2 chuyn ng xung pha di v ct ng cong cho hng ca QG 1 ti im N ( 50X , 40Y). im N l im cn bng QT sau khi c thu . Ti im N dc ti im N = 40/50 = 0,8 PWX/Y = 0,8 Nhn xt : iu kin TM s ( P ) t 1 xung 0,8 Quy m TM s gim ( t l trao i gim ) t 60X,60Y xung 50X,40Y. Phc li rng lun gim

Tc ng n th trng ni a ca QG B : Trc khi c thu ( TM t do ) : PN = PW = 1 T l trao i : XK 60 Y , NK 60 X - Sau khi c thu : QG 2 p dng thu i vi SP XK X iu kin TM ( P ) = Gi tng i ca SP c LTSS : PY/X = 50 / 40 = 1,25
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T l trao i : XK 40 Y , NK 50 X NX : QG 2 sau khi nh thu : - KTM ( P ) : P t 1 ln 1,25 - Quy m TM ( t l trao i gim ) t 60X,60Y xung 50X,40Y. - PLR ca NKT QG 2 ( Ph thuc vo khi lng XNK ) : TH 1 : PLR ca QG 2 s tng khi QG 2 c phn tng ca KTM > phn gim ca Quy m TM. TH 2 : PLR ca QG 2 s gim khi QG 2 c phn tng ca KTM < phn gim ca Quy m TM. d. Thu quan v phc li th gii : nh hng ca thu quan n sn lng th gii : Sn lng ca NKT TG t mc ti a khi cc quc gia trong nn kinh t TG khng cn phng n SX ti u no khc na . KSX ti u : MRTX/Y = PX/Y Gi s nn kinh t TG c n quc gia , mi QG c 1 iu kin SX ti u : K sn lng ca NKT TG QG1 c MRT1X/Y = P1X/Y MRT1X/Y = MRT2X/Y = MRTWX/Y QG2 c MRT2X/Y = P2X/Y QGn c MRTnX/Y = PnX/Y ( T do thng mi ) Gi s QG 1 p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP X : MRT1X/Y > MRTWX/Y cn khi p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP Y th : MRT1X/Y < MRTWX/Y. ( Vi phm k ti a ha sn lng ) Thu quan ngn cn th gii ti a ha sn lng v khi p dng thu quan th MRT1X/Y MRTWX/Y Thu quan v li ch ngi tiu dng : Li ch ngi tiu dng t mc ti a khi cc quc gia trong nn kinh t th gii khng cn phng n tiu dng ti u no khc na. KTD ti u : MRSX/Y = PX/Y M mi quc gia trn TG li c 1 phng n tiu dng ti u cho nn mun nn kinh t th gii khng cn phng n tiu dng ti u no khc na th : MRS1X/Y = MRS2X/Y = = MRSWX/Y T do thng mi Gi s QG 2 p dng chnh sch thu NK vi SP X th MRS 2X/Y > MRSWX/Y cn khi p dng chnh sch thu NK i vi SP Y th : MRS2X/Y < MRSWX/Y. ( Vi phm iu kin li ch tiu dng ti a ) Thu quan ngn cn th gii phn b c hiu qu hng ha gia cc quc gia v khi p dng thu quan th MRS2X/Y MRSWX/Y ?????? TMQT ti a ha mc sn lng ca nn kinh t th gii ( ng ) : v chng II nghin cu thng mi quc t trong iu kin t do cho nn cc quc gia khng p dng cc chnh sch thng mi nh thu quan, phi thu quan vo trong qu trnh trao i, mua bn hng ha ?????? p dng cc chnh sch thng mi quc t nhm bo v li ch ca ngi tiu dng ( Sai ) : v trong chnh sch TMQT c 1 cng c l thu quan, vic p dng thu quan lm gim li ch ca ngi tiu dng. Thu quan danh ngha : L thu quan p dng vi hng ha, dch v cui cng ( hng ha vi mc ch tiu dng ) hng ha dch v trung gian ( hng ha vi mc ch tham gia vo qu trnh sn xut ) . T l bo h thc s ca thu quan ( ERP ) : L t l % gia phn chnh lch ca gi tr tng thm gi ni a vi gi tr tng thm gi th gii
ERP = ( v v ) 100 % v v : gi tr tng thm gi ni a v : gi tr tng thm gi th gii

V d : Gi s PNK = 40$/1 i giy . Gi tr tng thm = gi thnh u1 i giy u vo ph p dng thu NK : t = PNK nguyn liu da = 30$/ ra chi ph . Chnh 25% / 1 i giy . Tnh ERP trong 3 trng hp : t ( da NK ) = 0 ; t ( da NK ) = 10% , t ( da NK ) = 50% Gii : Ta c : hng ha dch v cui cng l giy , hng ha dch v trung gian l da , mc thu 25% p dng i vi hng ha dch v cui cng , ta tnh mc bo h thc s cui cng trong trng hp mc thu nh vo hng ha dch v trung gian thay i trong 3 trng hp : Trng hp t = 0 % : Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 25 % + 40 ) 30 = 20 ERP = [ ( 20 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = 100 % Trng hp t = 10 % :

Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 + 40 25 % ) ( 30 + 30 10 % ) = 17 ERP = [ ( 17 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = 70 % Trng hp t = 50 % : Gi tr tng thm gi th gii : v = 40 30 = 10 Gi tr tng thm gi ni a : v = ( 40 + 40 25 % ) ( 30 + 30 50 % ) = 5 ERP = [ ( 5 10 ) / 10 ] 100 % = - 50 % KL : Vic p dng thu khng tc ng n gi c m ch tc ng n gi thnh NX : Khi thu i vi hng ha dch v trung gian = 0 th nh SX c li nhiu nht v khi mc bo h cao nht Khi thu vi hng ha dch v trung gian tng ln th nh SX chu thit v mc bo h gim dn Khi thu i vi hng ha dch v trung gian qu cao ( ERP < 0 ) th khi nh SX khng c bo h. Khi mc thu t = 25% i vi hng ha dch v cui cng khng cn thc hin chc nng bo h na m thc hin chc nng tng thu cho ngn sch nh nc . ???? p dng thu NK lun bo h nn cng nghip non tr ( cc ngnh SX trong nc ) ( SAI) : Ty vo loi thu nh vo hng ha, dch v no . C th : i vi thu nh vo hng ha dch v trung gian th n lm tng chi ph SX lm gim sn lng sn xut khng thc hin chc nng bo h m ch thc hin chc nng tng thu cho ngn sch nh nc. 3.2.2. Hn ngch nhp khu : a. Khi nim : Hn ngch NK l 1 loi giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit, p dng i vi mt s loi hng ha ngoi thng nht nh , trong chnh ph quy nh r s lng hng ha XNK c th ca 1 quc gia trong 1 thi k nht nh ( thng l 1 nm ) Hng ha ngoi thng l hng ha nhng ngi mua hng ha c giy php kinh doanh XNK ; vic mua , bn gia ngi NK v ngi XK c thc hin bng hp ng mua bn ngoi thng . Hng ha c c sn xut t th trng nc ngoi a vo th trng ni a ; hng ha vic thanh ton bng ng ngoi t , l hng chu thu XK . Hn ngch NK l 1 loi giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit : - Ch p dng i vi mt s loi hng ha ngoi thng nht nh ( hng ha XNK nht nh ) - Trong giy php kinh doanh XNK th CP s phi quy nh trc khi lng c php XNK ( a ) b. Tc ng ca hn ngch NK i vi nn kinh t : Cch thc phn b hn ngch : C 2 hnh thc phn b giy php kinh doanh XNK c bit : - Cp pht : Chnh ph cp pht min ph hn ngch cho cc DN NK v khng thu bt k 1 khon tin no . VD : CP cp pht hn ngch cho DN NK mui n cc chi cc hi quan xin cp giy php NK ( min ph ) - u gi : Chnh ph bn u gi giy php hn ngch cho cc DN NK ( trong trng hp ny , mi HN NK tc ng tng ng nh thu quan ) . Trong trng hp ny, s tin m chnh ph thu c l : Tng doanh thu hn ngch = L ph hn ngch Khi lng nhp khu khi c hn ngch ( a ) ( L ph hn ngch ngang bng vi mc thu ) Tc ng ca HN NK Tc ng ca thu quan. Trng hp 1 : Tc ng ca hn ngch i vi quc gia nh :
QG A l QG nh, m ca, SX v trao i SP X Th trng hng ha X ca QG A c biu din bng ng cung SX v ng cu DX v giao gia 2 ng ny l im E0 l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X QG A . T im E0 ta xc nh c mc gi ni a khi t tc l P0 - Trc khi p dng hn ngch NK ( TMTD ) : Gi s th trng QT cung cp hng ha X vi mc gi l P1 , do QG A l 1 nc nh , khng c kh nng tc ng vo gi th gii vy ng gi th gii phi biu din = 1 ng cung song song vi trc honh ( hon ton co gin theo gi ) Lc P0 > P1 , QG A tin hnh NK hh X vi mc gi chp nhn gi th gii ( P1 ) Ti mc gi P1 , QG A sn xut ti Q1 , tiu dng ti Q4 NK 1 lng Q4 Q1 .

- Sau khi p dng HN NK v khi lng HN NK c quy nh r y l a Khi p dng HN NK th gi th gii ko thay i ( P1 ) cn gi ni a tng ln t P1 ln P2 chnh lch gia 2 mc gi P1 v P2 l l ph hn ngch ( s tin m cc DN phi tr cho chnh ph trn 1 n v SP nhp khu ). Vi mc gi ni a by gi l P2 , QG A sn xut ti mc Q2 , tiu dng ti mc Q3 v nhp khu 1 lng l Q3 Q2 = a . Phn tch tc ng ca hn ngch nhp khu : - Sau khi c hn ngch : Gi tng t P1 ln P2 SX tng t Q1 ln Q2 Tiu dng gim t Q4 xung Q3 Nhp khu gim t Q4 Q1 xung cn Q3 Q2 PLR ca nn kinh t : - Ngi tiu dng thit 1 phn din tch l SACDH - Ngi sn xut c li 1 phn din tch l SABGH - Chnh ph : Ph thuc vo cch thc phn b hn ngch : + Nu nh CP cp pht hn ngch th tng doanh thu hn ngch = 0 PLR = - SBCDG + Nu nh CP u gi , CP thu c 1 khon tin t vic u gi ta gi l tng doanh thu hn ngch = SBCEF PLR = - ( SBFG + SCDE ) Phn SBFG + SCDE : tn tht thc s do hn ngch gy ra trong SBGF l tn tht sn xut do NKT phi gnh chu ( tn tht do bo h ngnh SX SP X trong nc m SP X l SP khng c LTSS nn phi tin hnh NK ) cn SCED gi l tn tht tiu dng do NKT gnh chu ( ngi TD phi tiu dng vi mc gi cao hn t P1 ln P2 ) i vi 1 QG nh khi p dng hn ngch th nn KT lun phi chu tn tht , trong trng hp cp pht th mc tn tht cn ln hn ????? Thi : Phn tch tc ng ca HNNK i vi QG nh : - KN : Hn ngch NK l g ? - Quc gia nh l g ? - V th, phn tch : + Trc khi c HN + Sau khi c HN : tc ng n gi, sn xut,NK , PLR ca nn kinh t Trng hp 2 : Tc ng ca HN NK i vi QG ln : Quc gia ln l quc gia c kh nng tc ng n gi quc t lm thay i gi quc t , v vy c khi lng XNK ln trn th trng quc t .
Quc gia B ln, m ca

T do TM

Tc ng ca HN NK i vi th trng quc t : Th trng quc t v hng ha X c biu din bng 1 ng cung XK l QXK v 1 ng cu NK l QNK , giao gia 2 ng ny ta c im E0 l im CB trn th trng QT v hng ha X. Ti im E0 ta xc nh c mc gi cn bng PW ( mc gi khi t do TM ) v khi lng XNK hng ha X l Q0 - Gi s QG B l 1 nc ln p dng chnh sch HN NK v trong giy php HNNK c quy nh r mc c php NK l a ( Qq ). Vy, vi lng NK c php y l Qq th lng NK gim t Q0 xung Qq
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lm cho ng cu NK chuyn ng xung pha di t QNK sang QNK t hnh thnh im cn bng mi trn th trng QT ( E1 ) lm cho mc gi th gii gim . - im E1 l im cn bng trn th trng QT sau khi c HN NK ( y chnh l mc gi m DN XK thc nhn v cng l mc gi m cc DN NK QG B thc tr ) , vy QG B mua hng ha X trn th trng QT vi gi l PHNXK nhng em hng ha X v bn th trng ni a vi gi PHNNK ( chnh lch gia 2 mc gi ny chnh l l ph hn ngch L ph HN = PHNNK - PHNXK ) Trong trng hp nh nc bn u gi HN NK th s thu c 1 khon tin m chng ta gi l tng doanh thu hn ngch = L ph hn ngch NK s lng NK ( Qq ) = ( PHNNK - PHNXK ) Qq Vy quc gia ln khi p dng hn ngch lm cho gi quc t gim t PW xung PHNXK Tc ng ca HN NK i vi th trng ni a ca QG ln : - Trc khi c HN NK ( thng mi t do ) : gi ni a ca QG ln ngang bng vi mc gi th gii khi t do TM ( P1 = PW ) . Ti mc gi P1 QG B s sn xut ti mc Q1 , tiu dng 1 lng l Q4 , nhp khu 1 lng l Q4 Q1 - Sau khi c HN NK : QG B mua hng ha X trn th trng QT vi gi PHNXK ( P2 ) nhng bn trn th trng ni ia vi gi PHNNK ( P3 ) sau khi c HN th mc gi trn th trng ni a ca QG B l P3 Ti mc gi P3 th QG B sn xut tng ln t Q1 ln Q2 , tiu dng gim xung t Q3 xung Q4 , nhp khu gim t Q4 Q1 xung cn Q3 Q2 ( = Qq ) PLR ca nn kinh t : ( gi tng t P1 ln P3 ) - Ngi tiu dng chu thit 1 phn din tch l SACDI - Ngi sn xut c li 1 phn din tch l SABHI - Chnh ph s c li 1 khon l Tng doanh thu hn ngch SBCMN - PLR ca nn kinh t : = ( - SACDI ) + ( SABHI + SBCEF ) = ( + SFEMN ) + ( - SBFH + CED ) + Nu SFEMN > SBFH+CED PLR > 0 ( PLR tng ) QG B c li trong vic p dng HN NK + Nu SFEMN < SBFH+CED PLR < 0 ( PLR gim ) QG B chu tn tht trong vic p dng HN NK c. So snh HNNK v thu NK : Ging nhau : u l cc cng c bo h ca nn kinh t ; khi p dng th c tc ng n gi c hng ha sn xut, tc ng n sn xut v tiu dng ca nn kinh t. Khc nhau : Tiu ch Hn ngch nhp khu Thu nhp khu Loi hng ha p dng p dng vi mt s loi hng ha p dng i vi mi hng ha ngoi ngoi thng nht nh thng Phm vi p dng Chnh ph khng ch s lng c Khi p dng thu NK lm cho PNK nh ( QNK = a ) trong 1 nm QNK nhng CP khng quy nh s lng gim c th Tc ng n ngn sch Nh nc c thu c khon tin t Chc chn thu c 1 khon tin t thu giy php hn ngch hay khng ( khon thu thc t ) th hon ton ph thuc vo vic phn b hn ngch : Nu nh cp pht th khng thu c 1 khon tin no c cn nu nh u gi th s thu c Tc ng n bo h p dng hn ngch nhp khu bo p dng thu nhp khu khng chc h mang tnh chc chn hn so vi chn bng p dng hn ngch thu quan Tc ng n c quyn p dng hn ngch nhp khu c th Khng th bin cc DN c quyn tim bin DN c quyn tim nng thnh nng thnh DN c quyn thc s DN c quyn thc s 3. Tr cp xut khu : a, Khi nim : Tr cp XK l nhng u i v mt ti chnh m chnh ph cc quc gia thc hin nhm kch thch tng cng xut khu . Tr cp XK bao gm 2 loi : - Tr cp XK trc tip : l khi nh nc hoc CP s cho i tng c tr cp 1 khon tin nht nh

- Tr cp XK gin tip : l khi nh nc hoc CP s cho i tng c tr cp nhng u i khc v mt tn dng nh li sut hoc c th ng ra vay vn cho cc i tng c nhn tr cp hoc l cho cc i tng c nhn tr cp vay 1 khon vay vi li sut u i. Gim thu TNDN i vi DN c nhn tr cp Mc ch ca tr cp XK l nhm tng cng , thc y XK . i tng c nhn tr cp XK l cc DN XK hoc nh NK ( tr cp XK gin tip thng qua vic cho vay 1 khon vi li sut u i c th NK c SP t quc gia tr cp ) . b.Tc ng ca tr cp XK : Tc ng ca tr cp XK i vi quc gia nh :
QG I : nh, m ca
QG I : nh ,m ca, SX v trao i SP X , th trng hng ha X ca QG I c biu din bng ng cung SX v ng cu DX , giao gia 2 ng ny ta c im cn bng E0 v mc gi cn bng l P0 - Trc khi tr cp ( TMTD ) : Gi s th trng th gii cung cp hng ha X vi mc gi l P1 , do QG I l QG nh khng c kh nng tc ng vo gi th gii vy ng gi th gii c biu din bng 1 ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi ( song song vi trc honh ) Ta thy P0 < P1 ( QG I c LTSS v SP X ) QG I tin hnh XK SP X vi mc gi ngang bng vi mc gi th gii l P1 Ti P1 , QG I sn xut ti mc Q3 , tiu dng ti mc l Q2 , XK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 ( EF )

- Sau khi tr cp : Gi s QG I tr cp XK cho SP X vi mc tr cp l Tr/SPXK , gi th gii vn gi nguyn l P1 tuy nhin mc gi ni a s tng ln P2 , khi QG I sn xut ti mc Q4 , tiu dng ti mc Q1 v xut khu 1 lng l Q4 Q1 ( BC ) Tc ng ca tr cp : P , SX , TD , XK Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi tng t P1 ln P2 ) : - Ngi tiu dng thit 1 phn l thng d tiu dng gim : SABFH - Ngi sn xut li ( thng d SX tng ) : SACEH - Chnh ph chu thit v phi chi ra 1 khon tin cho tr cp ( Tng tr cp XK = Mc tr cp trn mi SP XK Khi lng XK = ( P2 P1 ) ( Q4 Q1 ) ) : SBCDG - PLR ca nn kinh t = SACEH + ( - SABFH ) + ( - SBCDG ) = - ( SBGF + SCED ) Tn tht thc s do tr cp gy ra . Tc ng ca tr cp XK i vi quc gia ln :
QG II l QG ln , m ca khi p dng chnh sch tr cp XK c tc ng n th trng quc t : Th trng hng ha X c biu din bng ng cung XK l SXK v ng cu NK l DNK , giao gia 2 ng ny ta xc nh c im cn bng E0 v mc gi CB khi t do TM l PW v lng XNK khi t do TM l QXNK Gi s QG II tin hnh tr cp XK i vi SP X lng XK SP X tng lm cho ng cung XK dch chuyn sang phi t SXK sang S t hnh thnh im cn bng trn th trng QT mi l im E1 , t im E1 ta xc nh c 2 mc gi : Mc gi tr cp XK ( PTRXK ) v mc gi tr cp NK ( PTRNK ) . Trong : PTRNK l mc gi QG II thc bn trn th trng QT v cng l mc gi thc mua ca QG nhp khu nhng cc DN XK ca QG II s thc nhn mc gi PTRXK bi v c nh nc tr cp 1 khon l chnh lch gia 2 mc gi

i vi QG ln khon tr cp : TR XK / SPXK = ( PTRXK PTRNK ) Khi nh nc tin hnh tr cp XK th s phi b ra 1 khon tin ta gi l Tng tr cp XK : TR XK = TR XK / SPXK QXK = ( PTRXK PTRNK ) QXK

Chng IV : Lin kt kinh t quc t.


I. Khi nim lin kt kinh t quc t : 1.1 Khi nim : Lin kt KTQT l qu trnh khch quan, xut pht t yu cu ca s pht trin LLSX v trnh PC LQT ngy cng cao, lm tng cng qu trnh lin kt v mt kinh t gia cc quc gia trong cng h thng pht trin KT , cng trnh pht trin KT , nhm ti u ha c cu kinh t v s dng ngy cng c hiu qu ngun ti nguyn khan him . Lin kt KTQT mang tnh khch quan v n s chc chn ra i bi v cc quc gia trn th gii c nhng c im v iu kin t nhin, thin nhin hon ton khc nhau. Chnh s khc bit ny n s dn n phn cng lao ng QT ( mi QG trn TG s nn tp trung chuyn mn ha sn xut nhng sn phm m quc gia c li th ) . Khi phn cng lao ng QT pht trin n 1 trnh nht nh th chc chn n s cho ra i 1 h thng cam kt gia cc quc gia v s pht trin KT ca mi QG trong nn KTTG s ph thuc vo cc QG khc lin kt KTQT l 1 qu trnh khch quan , n xut pht t yu cu ca s pht trin LLSX v trnh PC LQT ngy cng cao. Tham gia vo lin kt KTQT lm tng cng mi lin kt v mt kinh t gia cc QG thnh vin vi nhau m ng tc u tin tng cng qu trnh lin kt l bt k quc gia no khi tham gia vo lin kt KTQT l phi tin hnh t do ha thng mi ( xy dng 1 l trnh tin ti ct gim, min cc hng ro v thu quan , phi thu quan ) 1.2 Cc hnh thc lin kt kinh t quc t. Lin kt c quyn t nhn ( lin kt kinh t tm vi m lin kt KT nh ) c hnh thnh trn c s m rng cc mi quan h hp tc kinh t gia cc t chc kinh t t nhn Ch th tham gia lin kt kinh t c quyn t nhn l cc t chc kinh t t nhn ( cc DN, cc tp on, cc cng ty tham gia vo nn kinh t th gii v tiu biu l cc cng ty xuyn quc gia) , mi lin h gia cc t chc ny c biu din bng vic k kt cc hp ng thng mi . Lin kt c quyn nh nc ( lin kt kinh t tm v m Lin kt KT ln ) c hnh thnh trn c s k kt cc hip nh gia cc chnh ph ca cc QG c lp Ch th tham gia lin kt kinh t c quyn nh nc l cc QG c lp, v i din cho cc QG c lp l vic chnh ph ng ra k kt cc hip nh , ni dung ca cc hip nh khng c i tri vi iu khon ca cng c quc t . - Cc hnh thc c bn ca lin kt c quyn nh nc : +) Khu vc mu dch t do ( FTA ) : FTA l 1 lin kt kinh t m trong : T do lu thng hng ha gia cc quc gia thnh vin ( thc hin 1 l trnh : ban u l gim, xa b, min hng ro v thu ; sau khong 10 20 nm h s tin ti min gim cc hng ro phi thu ) . Cc quc gia thnh vin vn duy tr 1 biu thu quan ring khi trao i thng mi vi cc quc gia ngoi thnh vin . VD : Hip hi cc quc gia ng Nam (ASEAN) +) Lin minh thu quan ( CU ) : CU l 1 lin kt kinh t ph bin nht trn th gii, trong : T do lu thng hng ha gia cc quc gia thnh vin Cc quc gia thnh vin thit lp 1 biu thu quan chung khi trao i thng mi vi cc quc gia ngoi thnh vin . VD : Cng ng kinh t Chu u ( EEC ) : +) Th trng chung ( CM ) : CM l 1 lin kt kinh t trong : Khng ch c hng ha m cn c K v L t do lu thng gia cc QG thnh vin Cc quc gia thnh vin thit lp 1 biu thu quan chung khi trao i TM vi cc quc gia ngoi thnh vin ( Khi trao i TM gia cc QG ngoi thnh vin th biu thu quan s c tnh theo biu thu quan chung ca cc QG trong khi ) VD : Th trng chung Chu u ( EU ) +) Lin minh kinh t + tin t ( EMU ) : t c ti lin minh kinh t tin t phi tri qua 2 giai on l lin minh kinh t ( s pht trin cao ca th trng chung ) v lin minh tin t( lin minh kinh t m trong cc QG thnh vin c s thng nht vi nhau v chnh sch kinh t c bit chnh sch tin t v trong tng lai s dng chung 1 ng tin ) VD : Lin minh kinh t EU ( lin minh kinh t ginh cho cc nc Chu u ) Cc cp lin kt kinh t mang tnh k tha :

Lin minh thu quan ( CU ) k tha khu vc mu dch t do ( FTA ) c im t do lu thng hng ha gia cc QG thnh vin ; th trng chung ( CM ) s k tha lin minh thu quan ( CU ) c im l chung mt biu thu quan gia cc quc gia thnh vin ; lin minh kinh t + tin t ( EMU ) s k tha th trng chung ( CM ) c im l t do lu thng hng ha, t bn v sc lao ng gia cc quc gia thnh vin. ????? Mi lin kt KTQT u dn n s t do di chuyn cc yu t SX ( SAI ) : Ch khi t n trnh v th trng chung mi c s t do v K v L cn cc cp cn li nh FTA hoc CU th cha c s trao i t do v K v L . 1.3 Bn cht ca lin kt KTQT : Nguyn tc u tin khi 1 QG mun tham gia vo lin kt KTQT l phi t do lu thng hng ha gia cc quc gia thnh vin ng thi cc QG thnh vin hoc l duy tr biu thu quan ring ca tng nc hoc l cng nhau thit lp 1 biu thu quan chung khi trao i TM vi cc QG ngoi thnh vin bo v quyn li ca cc QG thnh vin. Cho nn trong mi lin kt KTQT lun tn ti 2 xu hng tri ngc nhau l va t do TM gia cc QG thnh vin vi nhau v va bo h mu dch gia cc QG thnh vin vi cc QG ngoi thnh vin Trong lin kt KTQT c s phn bit i x ( gia cc QG thnh vin v cc QG ngoi thnh vin) . II. Tc ng kinh t ca lin kt kinh t quc t ( Tc ng kinh t ca lin minh thu quan ): 1. Lin minh thu quan dn n s to lp mu dch : S to lp mu dch l qu trnh xy ra do tc ng ca LMTQ m trao i TM c thit lp hoc SP quc ni ca 1 nc thnh vin trong lin minh khng c LTSS cao c thay th bng SP tng t t 1 nc thnh vin khc trong lin minh nhng c LTSS vi CPSX thp . VD : Nht v cng SX mt hng A c cht lng nh nhau , Nht mc gi l 30 $, mc gi l 20 $ c LTSS v mt hng A Nht s NK A v s XK A . TH 1 : Nht tin hnh nh thu vi mc thu sut l 100 % cho mt hng A Mc gi NK mt hng A t s l 40 $ cao hn mc gi ni a Nht Nht khng tin hnh NK TM khng xy ra TH 2 : Nht v s tin ti thnh lp 1 lin minh thu quan ( mc thu sut hng ha gia v Nht tin ti = 0 cho hng ha gia v Nht c t do lu thng vi nhau ). Khi Nht NK A t vi gi 20 $ thp hn so vi gi ni a Nht s tin hnh NK A t TM c xy ra T TM khng xy ra dn ti TM c xy ra ta gi l s to lp mu dch C 2 TH dn ti s to lp mu dch l : - T TM khng xy ra qua nh lin minh thu quan m dn n TM c xy ra - SP quc ni ca 1 QG thnh vin trong khi lin minh thu quan nhng c chi ph SX cao hn s c thay th bng SP tng t t 1 quc gia trong thnh vin nhng c chi ph SX thp hn . Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch :
Gi s TG gm 3 QG 1,2,3 l cc QG nh, m ca SX SP X vi mc gi ln lt 3 QG l P1 = 1 , P2 = 1,5 v P3 = 3 Trong 3 QG trn th QG 1 c LTSS v SP X v c mc gi nh nht . Th trng hng ha X QG 3 : c biu din bng 1 ng cung (SX ), 1 ng cu (DX)v giao gia 2 ng ny l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X ti QG 3 l E0 . Ti E0, ta xc nh c mc gi CB l 3 . Do cc QG ny u l QG nh cho nn mc gi u c biu din bng cc ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi. C th : QG 1 l P1 = 1 , QG 2 l P2 = 1,5 Trc khi c s to lp mu dch ( cc QG p dng nh thu ) . C th : QG 3 s nh thu hng ha X vi mc thu l 100 % , khi gi NK hh X t QG 1 = 2 v t QG 2 = 3 . Khi QG 3 s NK hh X QG 1 vi PNK = P1NK = 2 Ti PNK = 2 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q2 v tiu dng ti Q3 , NK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 . -

E0

- Sau khi c s to lp mu dch ( Gi s : QG 1 v QG 3 s thnh lp lin minh thu quan ) : Mc thu v hng ha gia QG 1 v QG 3 = 0 v t QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 v vi mc gi PNK = 1 cn vi QG 2 th vn = 3 ( QG 2 l QG ngoi thnh vin nn vn phi chu mc thu NK l 100 % ) Trong TH ny th QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 ( QG c LTSS v SP X ) .

Ti PNK = 1 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q1 v tiu dng ti Q4 , NK 1 lng l Q4 - Q1 Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch : Trc khi c to lp mu dch th gi = 2 Sau khi c s to lp mu dch th gi gim t 2 xung 1 lm cho SX gim ( t Q2 xung Q1 ) v tiu dng tng ( t Q3 ln Q4 ) v NK tng ln t Q3 Q2 ln Q4 Q1 Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi gim t 2 xung 1 ) : - Ngi tiu dng c li ( thng d tiu dng tng ) : SACDH - Ngi sn xut b thit ( thng d SX gim ) : SABHG - Chnh ph b thit ( xa b hng ro thu quan gia cc QGTV CP khng thu c thu ) 1 lng = Tng doanh thu thu = SBCEF - PLR ca NKT : ( + SACDH ) + ( - SABHG ) + ( - SBCEF ) = + ( SBFG + SCED ) PLR tng, NKT c li Trong SBGF + SCED l tng li ch ca s to lp mu dch khi nn KT tham gia vo lin minh thu quan . C th : SBFG l li ch sn xut (chuyn vic SX hh X t QG 3 sang QG 1 l QG c LTSS) SCED l li ch tiu dng ( ngi TD c tiu dng vi lng hh nhiu hn nhng r hn ). Kt lun : - Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch s dn ti thng mi quc t pht trin ( khi lng XNK tng hay Quy m TM tng ) - Thng mi xy ra cc quc gia c LTSS nn li ch t c l ti a - Tc ng ca s to lp mu dch lm cho PLR ca nn kinh t s tng 2. Lin minh thu quan dn n s chuyn hng mu dch : S chuyn hng mu dch l qu trnh xy ra khi NK 1 loi SP t 1 nc bn ngoi LMTQ c CPSX thp hn li b thay th bi NK sn phm cng loi t mt nc trong LMTQ nhng c CPSX cao hn. VD : TG gm c Q G Anh v Php u SX SP B, cht lng ging nhau . Gi B Anh l 120 $ , Php l 100 $ Php c LTSS v SP B . GS M l 1 QG c nhu cu NK SP B : TH1 : M tin hnh nh thu vi mc thu l 50 % / SPNK khi th PNKAnh = 180 $ v PNKPhp = 150 $ Trong TH ny th M s NK SP B t Php vi PNK = 150 $( QG c LTSS v SP B ) TH 2 : M v Anh tin ti thnh lp lin minh thu quan ( thu = 0 ) PNKAnh = 120 $ v PNKPhp = 150 $ Trong TH ny th M s NK SP B t Anh vi PNK = 120 $ ( QG khng c LTSS v SP B ) Thng mi chuyn t 1 QG c LTSS sang 1 QG khng c LTSS chng ta gi l s chuyn hng mu dch ( chuyn quyn trao i mu dch t QG c LTSS sang 1 QG khng c LTSS ) Tc ng ca s chuyn hng mu dch :
Gi s TG gm 3 QG 1,2,3 l cc QG nh, m ca SX SP X vi mc gi ln lt 3 QG l P1 = 1 , P2 = 1,5 v P3 = 3 Trong 3 QG trn th QG 1 c LTSS v SP X v c mc gi nh nht . Th trng hng ha X QG 3 : c biu din bng 1 ng cung (SX ), 1 ng cu (DX)v giao gia 2 ng ny l im cn bng trn th trng hng ha X ti QG 3 l E0 . Ti E0, ta xc nh c mc gi CB l 3 . Do cc QG ny u l QG nh cho nn mc gi u c biu din bng cc ng cung hon ton co gin theo gi. C th : QG 1 l P1 = 1 , QG 2 l P2 = 1,5 Trc khi c s chuyn hng mu dch ( cc QG p dng nh thu ) . C th : QG 3 s nh thu hng ha X vi mc thu l 100 % , khi gi NK hh X t QG 1 = 2 v t QG 2 = 3 . Khi QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 vi PNK = P1NK =2 Ti PNK = 2 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q2 v tiu dng ti Q3 , NK 1 lng l Q3 Q2 . -

- Sau khi c s chuyn hng mu dch ( Gi s : QG 3 v QG 2 s thnh lp lin minh thu quan ) : Mc thu v hng ha gia QG 2 v QG 3 = 0 v t QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 1 v vi mc gi PNK = 2 cn vi QG 2 th vn = 1,5 ( QG 1 l QG ngoi thnh vin nn vn phi chu mc thu NK l 100 % ) Trong TH ny th QG 3 s NK hh X t QG 2 ( QG khng c LTSS v SP X ) Thng mi c s chuyn hng mu dch t QG 1 ( QG c LTSS v SP X ) sang QG 2 ( QG khng c LTSS v SP X ) Ti PNK = 1,5 , QG 3 s sn xut ti Q1 v tiu dng ti Q4 , NK 1 lng l Q4 - Q1

Tc ng ca s chuyn hng mu dch : Trc khi c chuyn hng mu dch th gi ni a = 2 Sau khi c s to lp mu dch th gi ni a gim t 2 xung 1,5 lm cho SX gim ( t Q2 xung Q1 ) v tiu dng tng ( t Q3 ln Q4 ) v NK tng ln t Q3 Q2 ln Q4 Q1 Phc li rng ca NKT ( gi gim t 2 xung 1,5 ) : - Ngi tiu dng c li ( thng d tiu dng tng ) : SACTI - Ngi sn xut b thit ( thng d SX gim ) : SABKI - Chnh ph b thit ( xa b hng ro thu quan gia cc QGTV CP khng thu c thu ) 1 lng = Tng doanh thu thu = SBCEF PLR ca NKT = ( + SACTI ) + ( - SABKI ) + ( - SBCMN ) = ( - SMNEF ) + ( SBKN + SCMT ) Kt lun : - Khi 1 QG tham gia vo lin minh thu quan m dn n s chuyn hng mu dch th tc ng n PLR l khng lu di . C th , n c th xy ra 1 trong 2 TH sau : + Nu ( SBKN + SCMT ) > ( SMNEF ) th khi PLR > 0 NKT ca QG 3 s c li + Nu ( SBKN + SCMT ) < ( SMNEF ) th khi PLR < 0 NKT ca QG 3 s chu tn tht - Thng mi xy ra QG khng c LTSS nn khng t c mc li ch ti a - Cng nhiu quc gia tham gia vo khi lin kt KTQT th cng c li cho cc QG thnh vin GS QG 4 c mc gi = 1,1 cng tham gia vo lin minh thu quan gia QG 1 v QG 3 . Trong TH ny th khi lin minh thu quan bao gm 3 QG 2,3 v 4 mc gi QG 4 l 1,1 ; QG 2 l 1,5 ; QG 3 l 3 QG 3 s NK hh X QG 4 ( tng li ch ca ngi tiu dng : SBKN + SCMT tng ln v thit hi rng ca CP : SMNEF s gim Li ch rng s tng ln ) .

??????? Khi tham gia vo lin kt KTQT u c li cho cc QG thnh vin ( SAI ) : Ty vo tng TH : Nu TH dn n s chuyn hng mu dch th li ch rng ca NKT c th suy gim .

Chng V : Di chuyn quc t cc yu t sn xut 5.1 Di chuyn lao ng quc t 5.2 Di chuyn vn quc t. Chng VI : Th trng ngoi hi v t gi hi oi 6.1 Th trng ngoi hi 6.1.1 Khi nim v chc nng ca th trng ngoi hi. 6.1.2 T chc c th trng ngoi hi 6.1.3 Cc b phn ca th trng ngoi hi 6.2 T gi hi oi 6.2.1 Khi nim v t gi hi oi 6.2.2 T gi hi oi v cc giao dch kinh t quc t. 6.2.3 Cc ch t gi hi oi. 6.2.4 T gi hi oi trong di hn. 6.2.5 T gi hi oi trong ngn hn. Chng VII : Cn cn thanh ton quc t 7.1 Khi nim, ni dung v nguyn tc thit lp cn cn thanh ton. 7.2 Cn i cn cn thanh ton. 7.3 iu chnh t gi hi oi di ch t gi hi oi c nh. 7.4 iu chnh t gi v cn cn thanh ton. Chng VIII : Chnh sch kinh t v m trong nn kinh t m 8.1 Chnh sch kinh t v m trong nn kinh t m 8.2 M hnh IS - LM v cc ng cn i bn ngoi.. 8.3 Nhng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t v ti chnh. 8.4 Vn tng hp gia cn i bn trong v bn ngoi. 8.9 Chnh sch tin t v ti chnh: s ph hp v xung t chnh sch. Chng IX : H thng tin t quc t 9.1 Khi nim v phn loi h thng tin t quc t. 9.2 Tiu chun nh gi mt h thng tin t tt.

9.3 S pht trin ca h thng tin t.

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