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Xc sut ca mt bin c

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XC SUT CA MT BIN C
I. TM TT L THUYT
Xt th nghim gieo qun xc sc 6 mt (c th gieo mt con, hai con hoc
nhiu qun xc sc) v xt s chm xut hin, ta c cc khi nim sau y:
1. Php th ngu nhin
Php th ngu nhin l mt th nghim c kt qu mang tnh cht ngu nhin
m ta khng th bit chc c kt qu s xy ra nhng c th xc nh c
tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy ra ca php th.
V d: Vic gieo qun xc sc l mt php th ngu nhin.
2. Khng gian mu
Tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy ra ca php th ngu nhin gi l khng
gian mu. Khng gian mu thng c k hiu l E hoc
V d: Nu gieo mt qun xc sc th khng gian mu E l {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Nu gieo ln lt hai qun xc sc th khng gian mu E l
{(1;1), (1;2), (1;3), (1;4), (1;5), (1;6), (2;1), (2;2), (2;3), (2;4), (2;5), (2;6),
(3;1), (3;2), (3;3), (3;4), (3;5), (3;6), (4;1), (4;2), (4;3), (4;4), (4;5), (4;6), (5;1),
(5;2), (5;3), (5;4), (5;5), (5;6), (6;1), (6;2), (6;3), (6;4), (6;5), (6;6) }
3. Bin c
Mi tp hp con ca khng gian mu l mt bin c. Mi phn t ca bin c
A gi l mt kt qu thun li cho A.
V d: Bin c gieo ln lt 2 qun xc sc c tng bng 5 l
{(1;4), (4;1), (2;3), (3;2)}
4. Cc loi bin c
4.1. Bin c s cp
Mi phn t ca khng gian mu l mt bin c s cp.
V d: (1;2) l bin c s cp
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

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4.2. Bin c chc chn
Khng gian mu E cn gi l bin c chc chn, tc l bin c lun lun xy ra
khi thc hin php th ngu nhin.
V d: Bin c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng ln hn hoc bng 2 v nh hn
hoc bng 12 l bin c chc chn.
4.3. Bin c khng th
Bin c khng th l bin c khng bao gi xy ra khi thc hin php th ngu
nhin. Bin c khng th k hiu l .
V d: Bin c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng ln hn 12 l bin c khng th.
4.4. Bin c hp
Bin c AB l bin c "t nht c A hoc B xy ra" gi l hp ca hai bin
c A v B.
Bin c
1 2
...
k
A B A gi l hp ca k bin c
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A
V d: Gi A l bin c gieo ln lt 2 qun xc sc c tng ln hn 10 v
B l bin c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng nh hn 4.
Khi bin c A B l {(6;5), (5;6), (6;6), (1;1), (1;2), (2;1)}
4.5. Bin c giao
Bin c A B l bin c "c A v B cng xy ra".
Bin c
1 1
...
k
A B A l bin c "
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A cng xy ra", gi l giao ca
bin c
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A .
V d: Gi A l bin c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng ln hn 7 v B l bin
c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng nh hn 10.
Khi bin c A B l {(2;6), (6;2), (3;5), (5;3) (4;4), (4;5), (5;4)}
4.6. Bin c xung khc
Hai bin c A v B gi l xung khc nu khi bin c ny xy ra th bin c kia
khng xy ra, tc l 0 A B .
V d: Bin c A gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng ln hn 10 v bin c B gieo 2
qun xc sc c tng nh hn 4 l hai bin c xung khc.
Xc sut ca mt bin c

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4.7. Bin c i. Bin c i ca bin c A trong khng gian mu E, k hiu
A, l bin c "khng xy ra A".
V d: Bin c A gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng l mt s chn, khi bin c A
l bin c gieo 2 qun xc sc c tng l mt s l.
4.8. Bin c c lp
Hai bin c A v B ca mt php th ngu nhin gi l c lp vi nhau nu
s xy ra hay khng xy ra ca bin c ny khng nh hng ti s xy ra hay
khng xy ra ca bin c kia.
V d: Khi gieo 2 qun xc sc, gi A, B l bin c tng ng qun xc sc
u tin v th hai nhn c mt 3. Khi A, B c lp vi nhau.
5. Tn s ca mt bin c
S m ln xut hin ca bin c A trong n ln thc hin php th ngu nhin gi
l tn s ca bin c A
( )
0 m n .
V d: Khi gieo 16 ln mt qun xc sc ta thy c 2 ln xut hin mt lc th
tn s ca bin c qun xc sc xut hin mt lc l 2 trong 16 php th.
6. Tn sut ca mt bin c
T s gia tn s m ca bin c A v s n ln thc hin php th ngu nhin
gi l tn sut ca bin c A. K hiu
m
f
n
= .
V d: Khi gieo 16 ln mt qun xc sc ta thy c 2 ln xut hin mt lc th
tn sut ca bin c qun xc sc xut hin mt lc l
2
0,125
16
f = = .
7. nh ngha xc sut
Xc sut ca bin c A l t s gia s trng hp thun li cho A v tng s
trng hp c th xy ra trong php th ngu nhin:

Nu bin c A c m phn t trong khng gian mu E c n phn t
( )
0 m n
th xc sut ca bin c A l :
S trng hp thun li cho A
Tng s trng hp c th xy ra
P(A) =
S phn t ca A
S phn t ca E
( )
A m
P A
n E
= = =
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

268
8. Tnh cht
Cho mt th nghim ngu nhin c khng gian mu E v A, B l hai bin c.
Khi
( ) ( ) ( )
0 1; 1; 0; P A P E P = = A v B xung khc ( ) 0 A B =
9. Quy tc tnh xc sut
9.1. Quy tc cng xc sut
9.1.1. Bin c xung khc
Cho A v B l hai bin c xung khc. Ta c: P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
Cho k bin c xung khc
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A . Ta c:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 1 1 2
... ...
k k
P A A A P A P A P A = + + +
9.1.2. Bin c i
Cho A l bin c i ca bin c A. Ta c:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 1 P A P A P A P A + = =
9.2. Quy tc nhn xc sut:
9.2.1. Bin c c lp:
Cho A v B l hai bin c c lp vi nhau. Ta c: P(A B) = P(A).P(B)
Cho k bin c
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A c lp vi nhau. Ta c:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2
... , , ...,
k k
P A A A P A P A P A =
9.2.2. Bin c xung khc:
Cho A v B l hai bin c xung khc.
Ta c (A B) lun khng xy ra, nn: P(AB) = 0
Ta c A v B xung khc th A v B khng c lp, nn:
( ) ( ) ( )
. P A B P A P B vi
( )
0 P A > v
( )
0 P B >
9.3. Lin h gia quy tc cng xc sut v quy tc nhn xc sut
Cho A v B l hai bin c bt k. Ta c:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B p A B = +
Ch : C sch k hiu giao ca hai bin c A v B l AB thay cho A B.
Giao ca k bin c
1 2
, , ...,
k
A A A l
1 2
...
k
A A A .
Xc sut ca mt bin c

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B. CC DNG BI TP C BN
DNG 1. TNH XC SUT CA MT BIN C
Phng php: Dng nh ngha xc sut ca mt bin c
Bi 1. Cho 9 qu cn trng lng 1kg, 2kg, , 8kg, 9kg. Chn ngu nhin 3
qu cn. Tnh xc sut tng trng lng 3 qu cn c chn khng vt
qu 8 kg.
Gii
Gi E l tp hp tt c cc cch chn 3 qu cn trong 9 qu cn
3
9
84 E C = = .
Gi A l bin c "ly 3 qu cn c tng trng lng khng vt qu 8kg".
Xt cc kh nng xy ra: 1 + 2 + 3 = 6; 1 + 2 + 4 = 7; 1 + 2 + 5 = 8; 1 + 3 + 4 = 8.
Nh vy ch c 4 cch chn ra 3 qu cn c tng trng lng khng vt qu
8kg, tc l 4 A = . Vy xc sut cn tm l
( )
4 1
84 21
P A = = .
Bi 2. Gieo ln lt ba ng xu. Gi A l bin c c t nht hai mt sp xut
hin lin tip; B l bin c c ba mt ging nhau.
1. Tnh xc sut ca A v B.
2. Tnh xc sut ca A B v ca A B .
Gii
1. Khng gian mu c
1 1 1 3
2 2 2
. . 2 8 C C C = = phn t:
{ } ; ; ; ; ; ; ; E NNN NNS NSN NSS SNN SNS SSN SSS =
Bin c { } ; ; ; A SSS SSN NSS SNS = ; bin c B = { } ; NNN SSS
Xc sut ca A:
( )
4 1
8 2
P A = = ; xc sut ca B: P(B)
2 1
8 4
= =
2. Ta c: { } ; ; ; ; A B SSS SSN NSS SNS NNN = v
{ }
A B SSS =
Xc sut ca ( )
5
:
8
A B P A B = ; Xc sut ca ( )
1
:
8
A B P A B =
Bi 3. Gieo ln lt hai qun xc sc. Tnh xc sut ca cc bin c sau y:
1. A: "Tng s chm trn hai mt xut hin ca hai qun xc sc 6".
2. B: "C ng mt qun xc sc xut hin s chm l s l".
3. C: "S chm xut hin trn hai qun xc sc hn km nhau 2".
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

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Gii
Khng gian mu ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { } 1,1 ; 1, 2 ; 1, 3 ; ... 6, 6 E = : c 6.6 = 36 phn t.
1. Bin c: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { 1,1 ; 1, 2 ; 1, 3 ; 1, 4 ; (1, 5); 2, 1 ; 2, 2 ; 2, 3 ; (2, 4); 3,1 ; A =
( ) ( ) } 3, 2 ; (3, 3); 4,1 ; (4, 2); (5,1) c 15 phn t. Xc sut ca A:
( )
15 5
36 12
P A = = .
2. Bin c: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { 1, 2 ; 1, 4 ; 1, 6 ; 2, 1 ; 2, 3 ; 2, 5 ; 3, 2 ; 3, 4 ; 3, 6 ; B =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )} 4,1 ; 4, 3 ; 4, 5 ; 5, 2 ; 5, 4 ; 5, 6 ; 6, 1 ; 6, 3 ; 6, 5 c 18 phn t
Xc sut ca B:
( )
18 1
36 2
P B = = .
3. Bin c ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { } 1, 3 ; 3, 1 ; 2, 4 ; 4, 2 ; 3, 5 ; 5, 3 ; (4, 6); (6, 4) C = c 8 phn t
Xc sut ca C:
( )
8 2
36 9
P C = = .
Ch : Nu gieo ng thi 2 qun xc sc th hai kh nng xy ra (p;q) v
(q;p) vi p q l nh nhau nn khng gian mu E ch c 21 phn t, bin c A
c 9 phn t, bin c B c 9 phn t v bin c C c 4 phn t.
Bi 4. Gieo ln lt mt ng xu v mt qun xc sc.
1. Tnh xc sut ca mt bin c A c mt mt sp v mt qun xc sc xut
hin l mt s chn.
2. Tnh xc sut ca bin c B c mt qun xc sc xut hin l mt s nguyn t.
3. Tnh xc sut ca bin c C c mt mt nga v mt qun xc sc xut hin
l mt s l.
4. Tnh xc sut ca A B , ca A B v ca A B C .
Gii
1. Khng gian mu c
1 1
2 6
12 C C = phn t:
{ } 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6 E N N N N N N S S S S S S =
Bin c { } 2; 4; 6 A S S S = . Xc sut ca A:
( )
3 1
12 4
P A = = .
2. Bin c { } 2; 3; 5; 2; 3; 5 B N N N S S S = . Xc sut ca B:
( )
6 1
12 2
P B = = .
3. Bin c { } 1; 3; 5 C N N N = . Xc sut ca C:
( )
3 1
12 4
P C = = .
4. Bin c { } 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 2; 3; 5 A B S S S S S N N N =
Xc sut ca ( )
8 2
:
12 3
A B P A B = = .
Xc sut ca mt bin c

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Bin c
{ }
2 A B S = . Xc sut ca ( )
1
:
2
A B P A B =
Bin c A B C = . Xc sut ( ) 0 P A B C = .
Bi 5. Mt bnh ng 5 vin bi xanh, 7 vin bi v 4 vin bi vng. Ly ngu
nhiu 4 vin bi.
1. Tnh xc sut c 1 vin bi xanh v 3 vin bi vng.
2. Tnh xc sut c 3 mu.
3. Tnh xc sut c 4 vin bi cng mu.
Gii
Khng gian mu c
4
16
1820 C = phn t.
1. Bin c A ly c 1 vin bi xanh v 3 vin bi vng c
1 3
5 4
. 20 C C = phn t.
Vy xc sut l:
( )
1
20
1820
91
P A = = .
2. Bin c B ly c 3 mu
1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1
5 7 4 5 7 4 5 7 4
. . . . . . 910 C C C C C C C C C + + = phn t
Vy xc sut l
( )
910 1
1820 2
P B = = .
3. Bin c C ly c 4 vin bi cng mu c:
4 4 4
5 7 4
41 C C C + + = phn t.
Vy xc sut l:
( )
41
1820
P C = .
Bi 6. Mt hp ng 5 t bc 50000 v 10 t bc 20000.
1. Ly ngu nhin 2 t bc. Tnh xc sut c 70000.
2. Ly ngu nhin 4 t bac. Tnh xc sut c 140000.
Gii
1. Gi A l bin c ly c 150000. Ta c:
700000 = 50000 + 20000 nn 2 t bc phi khc nhau.
A c
1 1
5 10
. 5.10 50 C C = = phn t. Khng gian mu c
2
15
105 C = phn t.
Vy xc sut l:
( )
50 10
105 21
P A = = .
2. Gi B l bin c ly c 140000. Ta c: 140000 = 100000 + 40000
Nn B c 2 t bc 50000 v 2 t bc 20000.
B c:
2 2
5 10
. 10.45 450 C C = = phn t. Khng gian mu c
4
15
1365 C = phn t.
Vy xc sut l
( )
450 30
1365 91
P B = = .
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

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Bi 7. on tu thng nht S
1
c 4 toa i Hu Nng. Ti ga Thanh Ha
c 6 hnh khch mua v i 4 toa ny. Mi hnh khch c lp vi nhau chn
ngu nhin mt toa. Tnh xc sut mi toa c t nht mt hnh khch mua v.
Gii
Gi E l tp hp tt c cc dy s
( )
1 2 3 4 5 6
, , , , , x x x x x x , trong
i
x l s toa
m khch th i mua v vi
i
x { } 1, 2, 3, 4 . Khi
6
E 4 = .
Gi A l bin c "mi toa u c hnh khch mua v". Ta tnh s phn t ca
bin c A bng cch phn chia tp A thnh hai tp con
1
A v
2
A sau y:
i
1
A l tp hp cc cch mua v tu sao cho 1 toa c 3 ngi, v 3 toa cn li
mi toa c mt ngi, khi ta c cc kh nng sau:
+ C 3 ngi mua v toa 1 + C 3 ngi mua v toa 2
+ C 3 ngi mua v toa 3 + C 3 ngi mua v toa 4
Gi s xt kh nng c 3 ngi ln toa 1: iu ny c ngha trong dy
1 2 3 4 5 6
, , , , , x x x x x x s 1 xut hin 3 ln, mi s 2, 3, 4 xut hin 1 ln.
Khi s cc kh nng xy ra l
3
6
.3! 20.6 120 C = =
Do 4 kh nng 3 ngi mua v 1 toa c vai tr nh nhau nn s phn t ca
bin c A
1
l
1
120.4 480 A = =
i
2
A l tp hp cc cch mua v sao cho c 2 toa c 2 ngi v 2 toa c 1 ngi.
Khi ta c cc kh nng sau:
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 1 v 2 ngi mua v toa 2
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 1 v 2 ngi mua v toa 3
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 1 v 2 ngi mua v toa 4
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 2 v 2 ngi mua v toa 3
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 2 v 2 ngi mua v toa 4
+ C 2 ngi mua v toa 3 v 2 ngi mua v toa 4
Xt i din kh nng c 2 ngi mua v toa 1 v 2 ngi mua v toa 2
iu ny c ngha trong dy
1 2 3 4 5 6
, , , , , x x x x x x s 1 v 2 xut hin 2 ln, s
3 v 4 xut hin 1 ln. Khi s kh nng xy ra l:
2 2
6 4
. .2! 15.6.2 180 C C = =
Suy ra
2
6.180 1080 A = = v
1 2
1320 A A A = + = nn
( )
1320 165
4096 512
A
P A
E
= = = .
Xc sut ca mt bin c

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DNG 2: XC SUT CA NHIU BIN C
Phng php: S dng cng thc cng xc sut v cng thc nhn xc sut:
( ) ( )
1 P A P A + =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B = + (A, B bt k)
( ) ( ) ( )
P A B P A P B = + (A, B xung khc)
( ) ( ) ( )
. P A B P A P B = (A, B c lp).
Bi 1. Lp 12C c 30 hc sinh, trong c 5 em gii, 17 em kh v 8 em
trung bnh. Chn ngu nhin 3 em. Tnh xc sut :
1. C 3 em gii. 2. C t nht 1 em gii. 3. Khng c em trung bnh.
Gii
1.
( )
3
5
3
30
10
1
406
4060
C
P A
C
= = = .
2. Gi B l bin c chn c t nht mt em gii th B l bin c chn khng
c hc sinh gii. Do
( )
3
25
3
30
2300 115
4060 203
C
P B
C
= = = nn
( ) ( )
88
1
203
P B P B = =
3. C
3
22
C cch chn 3 hc sinh khng trung bnh nn
( )
3
22
3
30
1540 11
4060 29
C
P C
C
= = = .
Bi 2. Cng ty Samsung pht hnh 25 v khuyn mi trong c 5 v trng
thng. Mt i l c phn phi 3 v. Tnh xc sut i l c:
1. Mt v trng. 2. t nht mt v trng.
Gii
1. Gi A l bin c c 1 v trng. Xc sut ca A l:
( )
1 2
5 20
3
25
.
19
46
C C
P A
C
= = .
2. Gi B l bin c khng c v no trng th
( )
3
20
3
25
57
115
C
P B
C
= = .
Bin c B l bin c c t nht mt v trng th
( ) ( )
58
1
115
P B P B = = .
Bi 3. Mt bnh ng 5 vin bi xanh v 4 vin bi mu . Ly ln lt 2 vin
bi. Tnh xc sut c vin bi th hai mu .
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

274
Gii
Gi A l bin c ly c vin bi xanh ln th nht; B l bin c ly c vin
bi ln th nht; C l bin c ly c vin bi ln th hai.
Bin c ly c vin bi ln th hai l tp hp ca hai bin c: AC v
BC, trong A v C; B v C l hai cp bin c c lp.
Ta c: ( )
5 5 4
9 8 18
P A C = = v ( )
3 3 4
9 8 18
P B C = =
Vy xc sut phi tnh l:
5 3 4
18 18 9
P = + = .
Bi 4. Hai x th A v B cng nhm bn mt con th. Xc sut x th A
bn trng l
2
7
; xc sut x th B bn trng l
1
8
. Tnh xc sut :
1. C hai x th u bn trng. 2. Ch mt trong hai ngi bn trng.
3. t nht mt trong hai ngi bn trng. 4. C hai x th u bn trt.
Gii
1. Gi A l bin c x th A bn trng. Xc sut l
( )
2
7
P A = ; B l bin c x
th B bn trng. Xc sut l
( )
1
8
P B = . Hai bin c A v B c lp.
Vy xc sut hai x th cng bn trng l ( ) ( ) ( )
2 1 1
.
7 8 28
P A B P A P B = = =
2. Gi A l bin c x th A bn trt, ta c
( ) ( )
5
1
7
P A P A = = ;
B l bin c x th B bn trt, ta c
( ) ( )
7
1
8
P B P B = = .
Bin c mt ngi bn trng l hp ca hai bin c A B v A B .
Vy xc sut mt ngi bn trng l:
( ) ( )
5 7 5 19 1 2 14
7 8 7 8 56 56 56
P P A B P A B = + = + = + = .
3. l bin c A B : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
3 2 1 1
7 8 28 8
P A B P A P B P A B = + = + = .
4. Xc sut phi tm l
( )
P A B . M A v B c lp nn A v B c lp.
Do :
( ) ( ) ( )
5 7 5
.
7 8 8
P A B P A P B = = =
Cch khc:
( ) ( ) ( )
3 5
1 1
8 8
P A B P A B P A B = = = =
Xc sut ca mt bin c

275
Bi 5. Hai ngi A, B cng bn mt con chim. Xc sut ca A bn trng l 0,7
ca 2 ngi cng bn trng 0,42 v ca con chim b bn trng l 0,88.
1. Tnh xc sut B bn trng?
2. Kim chng rng hai bin c A v B l c lp.
Gii
1. Gi A l bin c ngi A bn trng
A B l bin c hai ngi cng bn trng, th A B l bin c con chim b bn
trng ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0, 88 0, 7 0, 42 0, 6 P A B P A P B P A B P B P B = + = + =
2. Ta c P(A).P(B) = 0,7.0,6 = 0,42 = P(AB). Vy A v B c lp nhau.
Bi 6. Ba ng v ba b ngi trn mt dy 6 gh.
1. Tnh xc sut ngi cng phi ngi gn nhau.
2. Tnh xc sut ba b ngi gn nhau.
3. Tnh xc sut h ngi nam n xen k nhau
Gii
1. K hiu tt ng l M v b l W. Khng gian mu E c 6! = 720 phn t.
C 2 cch xp ngi cng phi ngi gn nhau: MMMWWW, WWWMMM
C 3! = 6 cch ngi ca 3 ng v c 3! = 6 cch ngi ca 3 b.
Vy xc sut phi tnh l:
2.3!3! 2.6.6 1
6! 720 10
P = = =
2. C 4 cch sp xp ba b ngi gn nhau: MMMWWW, MMWWWM,
MWWWMM,WWWMMM. C 3! = 6 cch sp xp 3 ng v c 3! = 6 cch
sp xp 3 b. Vy xc sut phi tnh l:
4.3!3! 1
6! 5
P = =
3. C 2 cch sp xp ba ng v ba b ngi xen k nhau: MWMWMW,
WMWMWM. C 3! = 6 cch sp xp ba ng v c 3! = 6 cch sp xp ba b.
Vy xc sut phi tnh l:
2.3!3! 1
6! 10
P = =
Bi 7. Mt hp ng 4 bi vng, 3 bi xanh, 2 bi trng v 1 bi , cc bi ny ch
khc nhau v mu sc. Ly ngu nhin 3 bi cng mt lc. Tnh xc sut c 3
vin bi khc mu trong phi c bi vng.
Gii
Gi
1
A l bin c ly c 1 bi vng, 1 bi xanh, 1 bi trng:
1 1 1
4 3 2
C C C
Gi
2
A l bin c ly c 1 bi vng, 1 bi xanh, 1 bi :
1 1 1
4 3 1
C C C
Gi
3
A l bin c ly c 1 bi vng, 1 bi trng, 1 bi :
1 1 1
4 2 1
C C C
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

276
Ta c:
1 2 3
A A A A = vi
1 2 3
, , A A A xung khc nhau, nn
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4 3 2 4 3 1 4 2 1
1 2 3
3
10
11
30
C C C C C C C C C
P A P A P A P A
C
+ +
= + + = =
Bi 8. a. Gieo mt qun xc sc lin tip 6 ln. Tnh xc sut t nht c mt
ln ra mt "lc".
b. Gieo mt cp hai qun xc sc 2009 ln. Tnh xc sut t nht c mt ln
c hai con u ra mt "lc".
Gii
a. Gi
i
A l bin c "ln th i xut hin mt lc". 1, 6 i = . Ta c
( )
1
6
i
P A =
1, 6 i = . Khi bin c i
i
A "ln th i khng xut hin mt lc" c xc
sut ( )
5
, 1, 6
6
i
P A i = =
Gi A l bin c "t nht c mt ln ra mt lc", th bin c i A l bin c
"c 6 ln u khng xut hin mt lc".
R rng
1 2 3 4 5 6
. . . . . A A A A A A A = . R rng cc bin c
i
A l c lp.
Theo quy tc nhn, ta c
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
6
1 2 6
5
...
6
P A P A P A P A = = .
Theo cng thc xc sut ca bin c i, ta c
( ) ( )
( )
6
5
1 1
6
P A P A = =
Vy xc sut c t nht mt ln ra lc l
( )
6
5
1
6
.
b. Nu
i
A l bin c "Ln th i c hai mt u ra lc" th
( )
( )
2
1 1
, 1, 24
6 36
i
P A i = = =
Khi bin c i
i
A , "ln th i khng xut hin c hai mt lc", c xc sut
l ( ) ( )
35 1
1 1 , 1, 24
36 36
i i
P A P A i = = = =
Gi A l bin c "C t nht mt ln c hai mt u ra mt lc", th A l bin
c" c 2009 ln, khng c ln no ra c hai mt lc".
Theo quy tc nhn
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
2009
1 2 2009
35
...
36
P A P A P A P A = =
Theo cng thc tnh xc sut ca bin c i, th
( ) ( )
( )
2009
35
1 1
36
P A P A = =
Xc sut ca mt bin c

277
Bi 9. Gieo ng thi 3 qun xc sc. Anh l ngi thng cuc nu c xut
hin t nht "2 mt lc". Tnh xc sut trong 5 vn chi anh thng t nht l ba vn.
Gii
Gi
i
A l bin c "Ln th i thng". R rng khi tung 1 qun xc sc, xc sut
xut hin mt lc l
1
6
(v do xc sut khng xut hin mt lc l
5
6
).
Ln th i thng khi
Hoc l c 3 qun xc sc ra mt lc. iu ny xy ra vi xc sut
( )
3
1 1
6 216
=
Theo quy tc cng xc sut, ta c
( )
1 15 2
, 1, 7
216 27
i
P A i
+
= = =
Vy bin c i
i
A "Ln th i thua" l ( ) ( )
25
1
27
i i
P A P A = =
Gi A l bin c "t nht thng ba vn".
R rng t nht thng ba vn, ta cn c
C nm vn u thng. iu ny xy ra vi xc sut
( )
5
2
27
.
C 4 vn thng, 1 vn thua th xc sut l
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
4 4
4
5
25 25 2 2
. 5.
27 27 27 27
C =
C 3 vn thng, 2 vn thua th xc sut l
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 3 3
3
5
25 25 2 2
. 10.
27 27 27 27
C =
Theo quy tc cng, ta c
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
5 4 3
5
25 25 52032 2 2 2
5 10
27 27 27 27 27
27
P A = + + =

Bi 10. Bn lin tip vo mc tiu cho n khi c mt vin n u tin trng
mc tiu th ngng bn. Tm xc sut sao cho phi bn n vin n th 3, bit
rng xc sut trng mc tiu ca mi ln bn l nh nhau v bng 0,4.
Gii
Gi A
i
l bin c "bn n vin th i mi trng mc tiu"
A l bin c "bn n vin th 3 th ngng li", suy ra A =
1 2 3
A A A
Cc bin c
1 2 3
A , A , A khng c lp nhau v vic xy ra bin c A
i
s nh
hng n kh nng xy ra
1
A
i +
: ( ) ( )
1 1
A / A 0; A / A 0, 4
i i i i
P P
+ +
= =
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 2
. / . / 1 1 / / P A P A P A A P A A A P A P A A P A A A
(
= = (


Mt khc
2 1
A A nn
1 2 2
A A A = suy ra
( )
( ) ( ) 1 0, 4 1 0, 4 .0, 4 0,144 P A = =
Chng III. T hp, Xc sut v S phc Trn Phng

278
Bi 11. Mt cp tr sinh i c th do cng mt trng (sinh i tht), hay do
hai trng khc nhau sinh ra (sinh i gi). Cc cp sinh i tht lun lun c
cng mt gii tnh; cc cp sinh i gi th gii tnh ca mi a tr c lp
vi nhau v c xc sut l 0,5 con trai. Thng k cho thy 34% cp sinh i
u l trai, 30% cp sinh i l gi v 36% cp sinh i c gii tnh khc nhau.
1. Tnh xc sut cp sinh i tht.
2. Gi s khi chn ngu nhin mt cp sinh i th c cp c cng gii tnh.
Tnh xc sut cp sinh i l cp sinh i tht.
Gii
1. Gi A l bin c "cp sinh i cng gii";
1
B l bin c "cp sinh i tht"
v
2
B l bin c "cp sinh i gi". T gi thit
( )
0, 34 0, 30 0, 64 P A = + =
Nu c cp sinh i tht th chng lun c cng gii tnh nn ta c
1
1
A
P
B
| |
=
|
\

Nu c cp sinh i gi th gii tnh ca mi a tr c lp vi nhau v c
xc sut l 0,5 con trai nn ta c
2
1
2
A
P
B
| |
=
|
\
.
t
( )
1
P B x = , th
( )
2
1 P B x = . Ta c:
( )
( ) ( )
1 2
1 2
A A
P A P P B P P B
B B
| | | |
= +
| |
\ \

( )
1
0, 64 1 1, 28 2 1 0, 28
2
x x x x x = + = + =
Vy xc sut c c cp sinh i tht l 0,28.
2. Trong cc cp sinh i c cng gii tnh th xc sut xy ra cp sinh i tht
l
( )
( )
1 1
P B A B
P
A P A
| |
= |
\
. V mt bin c sinh i tht cng l bin c sinh i cng
gii nn
( ) ( )
1 1
0, 28 P B A P B = = . T suy ra
1
0, 28
7
0, 4375
0, 64 16
B
P
A
| |
= = = |
\

Nhn xt. C th s dng bin i sau y:
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
1
1 1 1
1 1
P AB
A
P B P P B P AB
B P B
| |
= =
|
\
( ) ( )
( )
1 1 1
/
0, 28.1
0, 4375
0, 64
P B P A B B
P
A P A
| |
= = = |
\
.
Bi 12. Mt chung g c 9 con mi v 1 con trng. Chung g kia c 1 con
mi v 5 con trng. T mi chung ta bt ra ngu nhin mt con lm tht. Cc
con g cn li c dn vo mt chung th ba. T chung th ba ny li bt
ngu nhin mt con g. Tnh xc sut ta bt c g trng t chung th ba.

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