II .

Thc trng n xu trong nn kinh t Vit Nam

1. Din bin ca n xu
N xu tng nhanh t nm 2008
Theo thng tin Thng c a ra trong phin cht vn Hi trng (13/11), tc tng trng ca n xu hng nm, hin c c tnh theo cp s hng chc % C th n xu 2008 tng 74%, 2009 tng 27%, 2010 tng 41%, 2011 tng 64% v t u nm 2012 tng 66%. Tuy nhin, t l c cc c quan qun l Nh nc ca chnh quc gia cng b mi l hp l hn c. Theo , cc t chc tn dng Vit Nam thng k, n xu trn ton h thng l 4,93%, cc b phn chuyn mn Ngn hng NN thng k c, con s ny l 8,82%, theo thng c thng bo. Theo ngi ng u ngnh Ngn hng NN, bt bnh chnh xc, th tnh trng n xu tr nn cng thng nh hin ti do 5 nhm nguyn nhn ch yu: (i) do bn thn cc T chc tn dng, (ii) do chnh Doanh nghip i vay, (iii) do c ch chnh sch v m, (iv) do mi trng, iu kin trong v ngoi nc tng thi k v (v) cng tc thanh tra, gim st hn ch. V phng php tho g, Thng c Nguyn Vn Bnh bo co trc Quc hi, Ngn hng NN ch o cc t chc tn dng khn trc r sot, tng bc c cu li n, vi thi hn, li sut ph hp hn vi DN trong tng thi k. Kt qu cho thy, c th DN ny DN khc cha c th hng chnh sch trn, nhng tnh chung c nc th con s ny kh n tng. T 36 nghn t ng, n ngy 31/10 tng s n c cu li l 252 nghn t ng, bng 8% tng s d n tn dng (2 triu 700 nghn t ng PV). Hin cc ngn hng ch ng x l c 12 nghn t ng t ngun trch lp d phng ri ro tn dn

Thc h ca n xu
N xu cha phn nh thc cht khon n
1

y l t l n xu c cho l c s khc bit so vi con s m cc t chc quc t thng k. Chng hn nh nm 2011, khi n xu ton ngnh c cho ch khong hn 3% bao gm c n xu ca Vinashin th Fitch Ratings hng nh gi tn nhim quc t li cho rng con s ny c th ln ti 13%. Nguyn nhn c bn ca s chnh lch ny chnh l s khc bit trong vic phn loi n theo chun VN (VAS) v chun quc t (IAS) khi hu ht cc NHTM ti VN hin nay vn phn loi n da vo nh lng m thiu i phn nh tnh nh tnh hnh ti chnh, kt qu sn xut kinh doanh ca DN. ng thi, cc NH ch xp phn n n hn khng tr c vo n xu, trong khi phn cn li ca khon n vn l n tiu chun. Trong khi , theo IAS, nu phn n n hn khng tr c th ton b khon n phi c xp vo n xu. Cng theo VCBS, s d c rt t NH p dng phn loi n nh tnh do cn nhiu bt cp, Nguyn nhn ch yu l do: (1) Cc NH phi xy dng c h thng xp hng tn dng ni b p dng phng php phn loi ny; (2) Phn loi n theo nh tnh s lm t l n xu cao gp 2 3 ln so vi nh lng; v (3) Bn thn vic phn loi n theo nh tnh cng gp phi nhiu im bt cp.

Bao nhiu phn trm n xu ?

Theo n ti cu trc DNNN va c B Ti chnh trnh Chnh ph, tnh n thng 9/2011, tng s n ca cc DNNN ti cc ngn hng ln n trn 415.000 t ng, tng ng 16,9% tng d n tn dng. Bao nhiu phn trm trong con s d n ni trn ri vo n xu l iu rt kh ni. thi im cui nm 2011, ng Deepak Mishra kinh t trng ngn hng Th gii cho rng thc t cc DNNN ang chim ti 60% tn dng ca cc ngn hng v cc t chc tn dng. Theo , mc n ca cc DNNN ang chim ti 70% n xu ca cc ngn hng. Trong tng s n 415.000 t ng ny, chim hn mt na s tin l khon vay ca cc tp on, tng Cty nh Tp on Du kh VN: 72.300 t ng, Tp on in

lc VN: 62.800 t ng, Tp on Cng nghip than v khong sn VN: 20.500 t ng, Vinashin: 19.600 t ng. V theo B Ti chnh th c n 30/85 tp on v tng Cty c t s n phi tr trn vn ch s hu trn ba ln, c bit c 7 tp on v tng Cty c t s D/E (Dept Equity Ratio) trn 10 ln. Mt t s n ngoi sc tng tng bi nu tnh theo nguyn l thng thng th cn D/E ln hn 1 l DN phi i mt vi nhng ri ro tn dng kh lng.

N xu tng do u?
Cc khon n xu ny do nhiu nguyn nhn, trong phn ln l n ca cc doanh nghip lm n khng hiu qu v t lnh vc bt ng sn. Cui nm 2007, u 2008 l thi im bng n ca th trng bt ng sn. Mt lng ln vn ca ngn hng vo lnh vc ny. n thi im hin ti, bt ng sn gim 30 - 40% v th trng ng bng nn doanh nghip kh tr n vay ngn hng. Mt iu ng quan tm na l, n xu ch tp trung mt s ngn hng cho vay kinh doanh bt ng sn, hoc cho vay di hn qu nhiu. Nhng n xu ny nu khng x l c c th gy nguy him cho ton h thng. Tuy nhin, ng L Xun Ngha cng cho rng, n xu vn nm trong s kim sot ca Ngn hng Nh nc mc d tnh hnh n xu ca cc ngn hng trong nm nay v nm sau s tip tc tng.

Din bin n xu i vi ngn hng v doanh nghip

Tnh hnh n xu cc ngn hng
Ngn hng Nh nc cho bit, n thi im cui thng 10/2011, n xu ca ton h thng chim khong 8,8 10% trn tng d n v tc tng n xu chm li k t sau thng 6 cho ti nay. Cui nm 2011, t l n xu mi dng mc 3,05%. Cn theo bo co ti chnh ca cc ngn hng thng mi, t l n xu ca cc nh bng u tng trong 9 thng qua. N xu c bit tng mnh ti cc ngn hng nh Vietcombank t 2% ln 3,21%; ca ACB t 0,9% ln 2,1%; ca Sacombank t 0,57% ln 1,4%; ca BaoVietBank t 4,56% ln 6,13%; ca NaviBank t 2,92% ln 3,97%.

Mt s ngn hng tuy nhin gi c tc n xu tng khng qu mnh, nh Techcombank t 2,82% ln 2,94%; ca KienLongBank t 2,77% ln 2,78%. Ring ngn hng PGBank gim c n xu t 3,06% cui nm ngoi xung cn 2,96%.

T l n xu ca mt s ngn hng qua 9 thng u nm

xut c ch x l n xu ngn hng

V pha cc ngn hng thng mi i vi khi n xu c, cc NHTM cn: X l t ngun trch lp d phng ri ro theo quy nh. Tm mi bin php thanh l/pht mi ti sn bo m cho cc khon n xu thu hi n. Ch ng phi hp khch hng thc hin c cu li n, gin thi gian tr n i vi nhng khch hng c kh khn ti chnh tm thi nhng c trin vng kinh doanh khi gii quyt c n xu; Tip tc gim li sut xung thc hin cc khon cho vay mi, gip DN gim chi ph u vo, bn c hng, c iu kin tr n ngn hng. Bn n qua cng ty qun l n v khai thc ti sn ca cc NHTM, Cng ty mua bn n trc thuc NHNN, Cng ty Mua bn n Vit Nam (DATC) ca B Ti chnh. V pha doanh nghip vay vn Gii quyt hng tn kho l vn cp bch hin nay. x l hng tn kho, ngoi vic h gi bn (chp nhn l) thu hi vn v quay vng th mt hnh thc lin kt gia cc DN, s dng cc sn phm ca nhau cng l cch lm hin nay. Bn cnh , vic minh bch thng tin ti chnh, nng cao kh nng qun tr DN, to nin tin trong quan h tn dng vi ngn hng. V pha Ngn hng Nh nc

Nhanh chng hon thin khung php l cc ngn hng c cn c thc hin xp hng tn dng ni b, hng theo thng l quc t. Song song vi vic xy dng, hon thin xp hng tn dng ni b, cn c chnh sch pht trin cc n v xp hng tn dng c lp lm c s tham chiu chung trong cng tc xp hng tn dng. Kinh nghim ca nhiu nc trong khu vc cho thy, vic pht trin cc t chc xp hng tn dng khng do Nh nc qun l hn ch vic chi phi ca t chc hay c nhn lm sai lch kt qu xp hng l rt quan trng trong hot ng tn dng ca ngn hng. Nhanh chng x l nhng bt n trong ni ti ca mt s ngn hng, gim st dng tin lun chuyn trong ni b ngn hng. y l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn c bn lm h thng ngn hng lun bt n, v tch t ri ro h thng ln. Khi gim st c dng vn ra khi vng lun qun bi mt s ngn hng, n xu ca cc ngn hng thng mi c iu kin c x l, im nghn v vn s c khc phc, vic tip cn vn ca DN s d dng hn.

Doanh Nghip
Thc trng n xu ca DNNN Theo tnh ton ca Ngn hng Nh nc, n xu ca h thng ngn hng thng mi ang mc 8,6%, tp trung ch yu vo lnh vc bt ng sn v chng khon; trong n xu ti khu vc DNNN rt ln. S liu ca mt s nh khoa hc cho thy khu vc DNNN hin ng gp vo 70% n xu ca ton h thng, trong cc tp on kinh t, tng cng ty chim 53% s n xu. Theo n ti cu trc khu vc DNNN ca B Ti chnh nm 2012 th d n ca 80/96 tp on, tng cng ty nh nc n cui 2010 l 872.860 t ng, bng 1,6 ln vn ch s hu. Tnh n thng 9/2011, d n vay ngn hng ca DNNN ln t trn 415.000 t ng, tng ng gn 17% tng d n tn dng ti cc ngn hng. Trong , n vay ca 12 tp on kinh t nh nc ln ti gn 218.740 t ng, d n ln nht thuc v nhng DN ln nh Tp on Du kh (PVN - 72.300 t ng), in lc (EVN 62.800 t ng), than & khong sn (Vinacomin - 19.600 t ng). Vi nhng con s nh trn th n xu ca khu vc tp on, tng cng ty trong h thng ngn hng s chim ti 30-35% tng d n ca khi ny. Mt c im ni bt l n xu ca cc DN Vit Nam gn kh cht ch vi khu vc bt ng sn (BS). D n cho khu vc ny vay chim di 16% nhng cc ti sn th chp bng BS cho cc khon vay khc nhau chim ti 60-80% tng gi tr ti sn th chp. Khi th trng BS suy gim, nhng khon n xu, n qu hn c th chp bi BS s rt kh thanh l. Vic thanh l mnh cc ti sn th chp s tip tc khin gi BS gim thm v cng lm trm trng thm tnh hnh n xu ca nn kinh t. Chnh c im ny khin cho cng tc x l n xu ca cc DN s gp nhiu tr ngi hn trong bi cnh hin nay. Nguyn nhn khin n xu ca DNNN tng cao Th nht, t chc, nhn s v bin php qun tr ri ro ca cc ngn hng thng mi cn nhiu hn ch, ch c khong 40% ngn hng thng mi tip cn c chun quc t (Basel 3); 5

Th hai, chy ua tng trng tn dng din ra trong thi gian di, lun trn 20%, thm ch ln ti 51,39% (nm 2007), cng vi vic ni lng iu kin cho vay khin n xu tng cao; Th ba, tc ng ca kinh t th gii phc hi chm v kinh t trong nc tng trng chm li lm cho DN gp kh khn trong sn xut, kinh doanh, hng tn kho tng cao, khng cn kh nng tr n ngn hng. i vi khu vc DNNN c n xu nhiu l do khu vc ny c hng nhng u i v tn dng nn cc DNNN c xu hng s dng n by ti chnh nhiu hn cc DNkhu vc khc. Tuy t l n trn vn ch s hu ca DNNN c xu hng gim trong nhng nm gn y nhng vn mc 2,52 ln vo nm 2009, cao hn nhiu so vi mc 1,78 ln ca khu vc t nhn v 1,39 ln ca khu vc vn FDI. Cc DNNN trung ng thm ch c t l ny cao hn, ln ti 3,53 ln. Th t, s hu cho, u t ngoi ngnh ca cc ngn hng v DNNN din ra ph bin dn ti cc khon cho vay, u t lng vng, bt chp quy nh, gy hu qu nghim trng; Th nm, mt s cn b ngn hng suy thoi o c ngh nghip, cu kt, mc ngoc vi DN trc li c nhn v cho vay khng ng quy nh; Th su, hiu qu cng tc thanh tra, gim st cn hn ch, nht l khng kp thi pht hin, ngn chn v x l cc vi phm quy nh v hn ch cp tn dng v u t mt s lnh vc ri ro cao. Gii php x l n xu ti DNNN (1) Chnh sch min gim thu, ph (thu thu nhp DN, thu gi tr gia tng, thu s dng t...) h tr DN c thm ngun lc duy tr hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh. i tng p dng rng ri, gm cc DN c hng li trc tip v c cc DN c hng li gin tip thng qua quan h mua bn - u vo, u ra (hn 200.000 DN c gia hn thu gi tr gia tng, vi s tin trn 11.000 t ng; gii quyt n thu thu nhp cho trn 8.200 DN vi s tin 347 t ng; gim 50% thu cho hn 3.000 DN vi s tin 339 t ng; gii quyt thu mn bi cho hn 40.000 h nh bt hi sn...). (2) Cc ngn hng thng mi r sot cc khon vay, tp trung tn dng cho cc lnh vc u tin, gim li sut cho vay, h tr gin n v n gin ho th tc vay cho DN c kt qu kinh doanh v phng n kinh doanh tt; li sut cho vay i vi lnh vc u tin gim mnh xung 13%. (3) Cc b, ngnh xy dng v trin khai nhiu chng trnh xc tin thng mi, h tr cc DN, c s sn xut, kinh doanh, cng c, xy dng v m rng th trng trong nc v xut khu.