y l ti liu Chu tm c, gom li cho mi ngi tham kho thi ch tht s C ko bit tr li cu hi trong thi ntn Crowding out

ut effect - hiu ng chn ln Hiu ng chn ln (crowding out effect), y l hin tng st gim trong tiu dng hoc u t t nhn xy ra do s gia tng trong tiu tiu ca chnh ph (u t cng). Thng thng i vi cc khon u t cng gia tng nu khng c h tr bng vic gia tng t thu th mt cch ph bin l cc chnh ph phi s phi dng n vay ti tr. Gia tng nhu cu vay n, tng cu tiu l nguyn nhn c bn lm tng li sut (chi ph phi tr cho vay n), t gy tc ng st gim trong u t ca khu vc t nhn (Li sut i vay cao Chi ph gia tng Li nhun st gim) Trong di hn, s st gim trong u t t nhn c th to nhng tc ng nghim trng ti vic n nh sn lng tim nng ca nn kinh t. - Mt s l thuyt cho rng vic gia tng u t cng c kim sot v chn lc thng qua vic chnh ph m rng khu vc sn xut t bng cc chnh sch u i hoc kch thch u t i vi t nhn. Nh vy lc ny, vic chnh ph gia tng chi tiu trong khu vc cng khng nhng khng gy ra s chn ln cho u t t nhn m cn c tc dng kch thch mt hiu ng u t cng chiu (crowding in hay hiu ng gia tc accelerator effect) - Bn cnh , trn l thuyt th hiu ng chn ln c th gim thiu bng vic gia tng chi tiu cng kt hp vi in tin. Vic in thm tin (tng cung tin n nh li sut), trn thc t thng gy ra tnh trng lm pht trong nn kinh t. Trong mt bi vit ca TS V Quang ng "li sut khi no gim?" c cp n hiu ng chn ln d on kh nng gim li sut theo tuyn b ca cc v ng u chnh ph. Vic gim li sut theo CPI l hon ton ng vi l thuyt nhng khi no gim, liu c gim lin khi CPI v mc 1 con s, li sut chu tc ng c cung tin, nhng th lng nhng khc v lm pht k vng. Yu t lm pht k vng ng mt vi tr rt rt ln, liu li sut c gim c ngay khi ngi dn cha tht tin tng kh nng gi mc CPI thp trong mt thi gian di? Ngoi ra, nu khng kho CP nhanh nhy tng u t cng khi thy lm pht v 1 con s c th gay ra hiu ng ln t, v khi nn kinh t va thot ra khi nhng kh khn, ngn sch chu thm ht trin min v ngun thu thu gim, gia tng u t cng khng cn cch no khc l phi huy ng thng qua bonds khi , chnh nhu cu vay n ca chnh ph s y mt bng li sut ln cao, mt ln na nh hng xu n u t c th, nh hng n tiu dng ca ngi dn, v mt ln na ri vo "vng ln qun".... Investopedia explains 'Crowding Out Effect' Governments often borrow money (by issuing bonds) to fund additional spending. The problem occurs when government debt 'crowds out' private companies and individuals from the lending market. Increased government borrowing tends to increase market interest rates. The problem is that the government can always pay the market interest rate, but there comes a point when corporations and individuals can no longer afford to borrow. u t cng chn p u t t nhn u t ca Nh nc vo lnh vc nng nghip, khoa hc, gio dc-o to c xu hng gim dn trong nhng nm qua. Trong khi , t trng u t nh nc vo cc lnh vc an ninh, quc phng v on th li gia tng. Ti k hp Quc hi thng 6/2012, i biu Nguyn B Thuyn (Lm ng) gy ch vi d lun khi ng dn li mt lot v tham nhng, lng ph ln gn y, t PMU18 n Vinashin, Vinalines v nhc nh Chnh ph: Nu khng sm gii quyt th Vit Nam khng phi l nc chm pht trin m l nc kh pht trin. Pht biu ca ng gi nh n cu ni ca Thiu tng L Vn Cng c lu truyn t trc : Vit Nam khng phi nc ang pht trin, pht trin hay chm pht trin, m l kh pht trin. u t cng cao nht trong tng u t ca x hi Nhn xt trn tuy mang tnh hi hc nhng khng phi khng c kha cnh ng n, khi m khu vc kinh t quc doanh vn c xc nh l gi vai tr ch o v u t nh nc nh th vn c nhn nhn nh ng lc thc y tng trng. Trong khi trn thc t, u t cng trong hon cnh Vit Nam li c nhng tr ngi khin cho n rt kh t hiu qu cao. u t cng v bn cht l chi tiu ca Chnh ph cho mc ch kinh doanh hoc cng ch nh lng hu, tr cp x hi, xy dng c s h tng, Trn th gii, c nh ngha cho rng u t cng ch bao gm chi tiu cng cho cc d n phc v li ch chung, phi kinh doanh. Song Vit Nam, u t cng cng c hiu l u t ca khu vc kinh t nh nc, ngha l c c mc ch kinh doanh. Vi ngha , n chim khong 38,9% tng vn u t trong ton x hi nm 2011, tng ng vi 27,43% GDP, cao nht trong c cu u t ca x hi. u t ca khu vc kinh t ngoi Nh nc chim 35,2% tng vn. Cn t l ny khi doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi (FDI) l 25,9% (s liu ca Tng cc Thng k). Chim phn cao nht, song cht lng n u th cn phi bn. Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2012 i din thch thc ti c cu kinh t ca Trung tm Nghin cu kinh t v chnh sch (VEPR) cng b mt thng k xc nhn s nghi ng lu nay ca nhiu ngi: T nm 2005 n 2010, u t ca Nh nc vo lnh vc nng nghip gim t 7,14% xung cn 5,86%. Xu hng tng t cng xy ra trong khoa hc, gio dc-o to: 6,75% xung cn

5,55%; v y t, tr gip x hi: 3,37% xung cn 2,7%. Tuy nhin, u t nh nc vo cc lnh vc qun l nh nc, an ninh, quc phng v on th li tng t mc 8,29% nm 2005 ln 9,67% nm 2010. Tranh phn ca t nhn Tuy vy, ci ng ni nht c l l nguy c u t cng chn p u t t nhn. Theo TS kinh t T Trung Thnh mt trong cc tc gi ca bn bo co i din thch thc ti c cu kinh t th u t cng thc y u t t nhn nu n c tnh b tr cho u t t nhn. Ni cch khc, chng no doanh nghip t nhn thu c li nhun cao nh c u t cng v h tng cng u t t nhn, th chng u t cng l c hiu qu, c ch cho pht trin kinh t bn vng. C th, vic cnh tranh c th din ra trong lnh vc tn dng, khi Chnh ph pht hnh tri phiu vay vn nhm mc ch m rng u t cng. Khi y, ngun tn dng thng mi dnh cho t nhn s b tc ng gim. Cnh tranh cn l khi doanh nghip nh nc (DNNN) ln t doanh nghip t nhn trn th trng hng ha-dch v. S chn p s c bit xu khi DNNN lm n yu km, thua l, gy thit hi cho ngn sch chnh ph. Nn kinh t s b ri vo trng thi bt n, tr tr; lm pht s gia tng v thm ch khng khong kinh t c th xy ra. Trong trng hp ny, doanh nghip t nhn khng nhng ngng m rng m thm ch s cn phi thu hp sn xut trnh nguy c b ph sn - TS T Trung Thnh l gii. Bng mt s tnh ton l thuyt, ng Thnh cho rng Vit Nam, hin tng u t cng ln t u t t nhn th hin r nt, sau mt thp nin, 1% tng vn u t cng ban u s khin u t t nhn b thu hp khong 0,48%. V hiu qu phc v cho tng trng th li ngc li: Tc ng n GDP ca u t khu vc nh nc l thp so vi tc ng ca u t khu vc t nhn, theo 1% tng ln ca u t t nhn c th ng gp 0,33% tng trng, trong khi u t cng ch ng gp 0,23% tng sn lng trong cn bng di hn. Hiu qu ca u t cng cn b nghi ng nhiu hn na, khi m n l nguyn nhn chnh khin n cng ca Vit Nam lin tc tng. Tnh n cui nm 2011, n cng ca Vit Nam ln ti 58,7% GDP. ThS inh Tun Minh, Trng phng Phn tch, Ngn hng TMCP Qun i, cho bit: So vi cc nc trong khu vc th n cng ca Vit Nam ang qu cao: N cng ca Thi Lan ch l 44% GDP, ca Indonesia l 39,7% GDP v ca Philippines l 47,3% GDP. Khu vc DNNN vn cn rt ln ca Vit Nam thng l n v c Nh nc la chn thc hin cc d n pht trin c s h tng. Hu ht ngun vn vay ODA pht trin c s h tng u giao cho cc DNNN thc hin. iu cng khuch i s chn p ca u t cng i vi u t t nhn. Kh nng cao hiu qu nu vn tham u t cng khng cn chn p m ngc li, thc y u t t nhn, th cc gii php c bn m gii kinh t vn thng xut l phn b vn u t cng sao cho hp l (v d, theo hng tng cng pht trin ngun nhn lc bng cch u t vo y t, gio dc, nghin cu khoa hc), gim st tt qu trnh u t, nng cao hiu qu qun l v vn hnh khi DNNN. Ring v cc DNNN - lc lng nm gi phn ln cc d n u t cng Vit Nam - vic nng cao cht lng qun tr, iu hnh c nhc n t lu. Cu Ch tch Ngn hng Pht trin chu ti Vit Nam, ng Ayumi Konishi, trong mt cuc trao i vi Php Lut TP.HCM tng khng nh: Doanh nghip thuc s hu nh nc hay t nhn khng quan trng, cho d l ca thnh phn kinh t no th cng cn c qun tr tt. ng nhn mnh yu t quan trng qun tr c cht lng l phi m bo minh bch. y cng l mt phn ni dung xut trong bn Bo co Kinh t Thng nin ca VEPR. Theo , Vit Nam cn theo xu th gim dn t trng u t cng trong tng vn u t ca x hi, ng thi tng cng mnh m hiu qu v cht lng ca u t cng. Cn to c hi bnh ng hn na cho cc ngun vn u t khc ca x hi, to ra cc c ch hiu qu huy ng ti a cc ngun vn t nhn, gim dn s ph thuc, trng ch vo ngn sch. Ngoi ra, cn i mi t duy v vai tr Nh nc trong nn kinh t, c th l gim bt chc nng nh nc kinh doanh. Khng nn phn b u t nh nc vo cc ngnh m khu vc t nhn c th m nhim v m nhim tt, chuyn trng tm ra ngoi lnh vc kinh t, tp trung vo pht trin kt cu h tng kinh t v x hi, pht trin th ch v pht trin nng lc, to c ngoi ng tch cc lan ta n khu vc t nhn, h tr khu vc ny trong qu trnh kinh doanh v ng gp vo tng trng kinh t. TS NGUYN NH CUNG, Vin Qun l Kinh t Trung ng: u t nh nc chim t trng ln m khng hiu qu u t nh nc bao gm u t t ngn sch nh nc, u t bng vn tri phiu chnh ph, tn dng u t nh nc v u t ca cc DNNN. u t nh nc hin ang chim t trng ln nht trong tng u t x hi nhng hiu qu li khng cao; ang phn tn trong hu ht cc ngnh kinh t, k c cc ngnh m khu vc kinh t t nhn c kh nng u t pht trin nh khch sn, nh hng, dch v kinh doanh ti sn, thng mi v mt s dch v tiu dng khc. u t nh nc, nht l u t t ngn sch c quy m ln, lun ng hnh vi chnh sch ti kha m rng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn ch yu ca lm pht v bt n kinh t v m. Bung lng v chn ln Mi khi ni n nhng yu km ca khu vc kinh t nh nc, ngi ta thng qun vai tr ca cc b, ngnh c giao lm i din ch s hu cc doanh nghip nh nc. Gi th cc ni ny ch cn lm ng chc trch c giao,

tun th nghim khc cc quy nh sn c, cc tp on, tng cng ty nh nc cng khng n ni lm vo tnh trng n nn chng cht nh by gi. Ly v d, theo Thng t 242/2009 hng dn thi hnh quy ch qun l ti chnh ca cng ty nh nc v qun l vn nh nc u t vo doanh nghip, cc tp on, tng cng ty nh nc khng c t vay vn lm cho h s n phi tr trn vn iu l vt qu ba ln m phi bo co i din ch s hu nh nc xem xt quyt nh. Th nhng, theo bo co ca Chnh ph trc Quc hi v tnh hnh ti chnh v hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca 91 tp on, tng cng ty nh nc nm 2011, c n 30 tp on, tng cng ty c t l n phi tr trn vn ch s hu ln hn 3 ln, trong c 8 tp on, tng cng ty trn 10 ln! Chng hn, Tng cng ty u t pht trin ng cao tc vay n n 56,47 ln so vi vn, Tng cng ty Xy dng cng trnh giao thng 1 - 21,85 ln, Tng cng ty Hng hi Vit Nam - 15,07 ln! Bo co khng ni l mt khi t l ny vt ba ln nh quy nh, cc b, ngnh lm i din ch s hu c nhc nh g cc tp on, tng cng ty hay khng, h quyt nh cho vay vt mc nh th no v c bo cho B Ti chnh theo quy nh hay khng. trnh n nn chng cht, Thng t 242 quy nh cng ty no khng c php huy ng vn vt mc ba ln nh ni trn nhng lin tc hai nm lin c h s n phi tr vt vn iu l ba ln th phi c k hoch c cu li ngun vn nh iu chnh vn iu l, chuyn nhng cc khon u t ti chnh, a dng ha s hu cc n v thnh vin, thu hi vn u t vo cc lnh vc ngoi ngnh kinh doanh chnh hoc km hiu qu. Liu c tp on, tng cng ty no trong 30 n v ni trn b yu cu thc hin nhng bin php ny? B Ti chnh thay mt Chnh ph bo co vi Quc hi nhng liu trc c bin php yu cu cc n v thc hin ng theo tinh thn Thng t 242? V s bung lng ny, tnh hnh n nn cc tp on, tng cng ty ln n mc bo ng. Nm 2011, tng s n phi tr ca tp on, tng cng ty l 1.292.400 t ng, tng 18,9% so vi nm 2010. Gn 1,3 triu t ng, tc l gn bng mt na tng d n tn dng ca ton nn kinh t, ch 90 tp on, tng cng ty nh nc! Vn bit n ca cc doanh nghip bao gm nhiu dng nh tri phiu ch khng ch tn dng ngn hng nhng vi con s v t l ln nh th, cn u tn dng cho cc thnh phn khc ca nn kinh t. Th nhn vo cc tp on c n phi tr ln nh Tp on Du kh Quc gia Vit Nam, n phi tr 286.817 t ng; Tp on in lc Vit Nam, n phi tr 275.278 t ng; Tp on Cng nghip xy dng Vit Nam, n phi tr 69.577 t ng; Tng cng ty Hng hi Vit Nam, n phi tr 61.768 t ng; Tp on Cng nghip Than khong sn Vit Nam, n phi tr 71.112 t ng, khng th no hnh dung ni mt n v khng thi c s n bng mt phn mi tng d n ca ton nn kinh t. C ly chi ph vay n thp nht m tnh cng s thy rng cc n v ny chy tin tr li cng ht sc ri, cn u tr n gc hay c li tr phi c u i ht mc. Chng ta cn nh c nhiu quy nh khng ch mc u t ngoi ngnh ca doanh nghip nh nc cng nh nhng yu cu doanh nghip nh nc phi thoi dn vn ra khi nhng ni u t tri ngnh. Th m cc tp on, tng cng ty nh nc trong nm 2011 vn tng u t vo cc lnh vc chng khon, qu u t, bo him, ngn hng v bt ng sn ln n 23.744 t ng (tng 15% so vi nm 2010). Mt im cui cng cng c th gy bt ng nhiu ngi. Theo bo co ca Chnh ph gi Quc hi, nm 2011, thu thu nhp doanh nghip m cc tp on, tng cng ty np cho nh nc l 47.710 t ng (tng s thu thu nhp doanh nghip ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc m B Ti chnh cng b trong cn i thu chi ngn sch nm 2011 l 56.265 t ng). So vi tng thu thu thu nhp doanh nghip ca tt c mi thnh phn l 184.481 t ng, th cc tp on, tng cng ty ch chim 25,8%. Tn dng, t ai, chnh sch u i, nhiu ngun lc khc, ci no cc doanh nghip nh nc cng chim t l cao nhng np thu th ch chim mt phn t c l cu hi v hiu qu c cu tr li. Gii php gii quyt n xu Pht hnh tri phiu cu DN n thi im ny rt cn Chnh ph "ra tay cu cc DN. Bi nu cha tm c gii php gii quyt n xu th cc dng tin trong ngn hng khng th lu thng c, trong khi DN li mi mn ch ngun vn. Khng th dng tin ngn sch gii quyt n xu v ai cng bit trong giai on hin ti vic cn i ngn sch l rt kh khn. Hn na, tin t ngn sch l tin thu ca dn, m tin thu ca dn mun chi vo bt k vic g phi nhn c s ng thun ca nhn dn. V vy, cn phi tm ra mt gii php khc cu DN, l hc kinh nghim ca cc nc v cch h gii quyt n xu. Kinh nghim ca cc nc trong trng hp ny l Chnh ph phi ng ra can thip. Khi Chnh ph b tin ra x l n xu cho c h thng ngn hng cng nh ca ton b nn kinh t th sau mt thi gian, khi nn kinh t phc hi ln c th ti sn Chnh ph ng ra mua li c th bn i thu hi li n. Thng qua cc cng ty mua bn n, Chnh ph c th can thip mua li n, gip DN x l c kh khn v khi phc li mi quan h ti chnh tn dng gia ngn hng v DN. Minh bch thng tin Theo ng V Tr Thnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Nghin cu qun l Trung ng, ch mt cch duy nht lm hi lng d lun l phi gii trnh minh bch. X l n xu cn phi c mt ch nh gn vi mt khun kh php l y

sc lc v quyn hn thc hin, ng thi vi mt c ch minh bch thng tin cng nh c ch gim st, h tr ng n nht. Vic gii quyt n xu l mt vn h trng ca Chnh ph v nn kinh t hin nay, ng thi n ng hnh vi qu trnh ti cu trc nn kinh t, trong c ti cu trc h thng ti chnh, cc ngn hng thng mi. gii quyt n xu, trc ht Ngn hng Nh nc phi cng khai r rng, hin nay n xu, theo tiu chun Vit Nam l bao nhiu? c bit khng th tn ti hin tng ngn hng thng mi ni 4% m Ngn hng Nh nc li ni 8%. Khng ch c vy, cn lm r n xu tn ti nhng khu vc no, lnh vc no, thc cht l bao nhiu. Sau khi cng khai r rng v ng s thc con s n xu, cn phi c quy nh yu cu cc ngn hng thng mi phi trch lp qu d phng n xu. Mt khc, phi c s gim st c lp, cht ch qu trnh gii quyt n xu cng nh c ch ti mnh x l cc ngn hng giu n xu theo tiu chun Vit Nam quy nh. Nhiu chuyn gia cho rng, nu tp trung quyt lit x l n xu th ht qu II-2013 kinh t Vit Nam s c chuyn bin tch cc, v nm ti c th t c mc tiu tng trng 5,5%. Tuy nhin mun lm c iu ny nhiu kin cho rng: Chnh ph cn thnh lp mt y ban gii quyt n xu bao gm i din ca Ngn hng Nh nc, cc B: Ti chnh, Xy dng, Cng thng, Cng anTheo , y ban gii quyt n xu s hnh thnh mt Cng ty mua bn n, hot ng di s gim st c lp ca cc y ban chuyn trch ca QH gii quyt vn n xu.