BO CO THNG NIN KINH T VIT NAM 2011

Ch bin: TS. Nguyn c Thnh

NN KINH T TRC
NG BA NG

H Ni, 6/2011

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG

Bo co ny c thc hin vi s h tr ca

i hc Quc gia
H Ni

Trng i hc Kinh t
i hc Quc gia H Ni

B Pht trin Quc t (DFID)

Vng quc Anh

ii

Li gii thiu

Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2011

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
Bn quyn 2011 ca Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch (VEPR), Trng i
hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni.
Mi s sao chp v lu hnh khng c s ng ca VEPR l vi phm bn quyn.

Lin lc:

Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch (VEPR)

Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni
Phng 704, Nh E4, 144 Xun Thu, Qun Cu Giy, H Ni, Vit Nam.

Tel:
Fax:
Email:
Website:

(84) 4 37547506 (ext 704)

(84) 4 37549921
Info@vepr.org.vn
www.vepr.org.vn

Tranh ba: Tru tng (trch on) ca Nguyn Ch Long (2011, acrylic trn vi, 150x50
cm), su tp ca Nguyn c Thnh.

iii

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG

LI GII THIU
Vo u nm 2009, Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch (VEPR) cho ra i Bo
co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2009: Suy gim v thch thc i mi. y cng l tp
Bo co u tin trong chui n phm loi ny ca Trung tm. n phm nhn c s
cho n v nh gi tch cc ca gii chuyn mn v qung i c gi.
Nhn thy tim nng pht trin cc Bo co ny ln thnh mt sn phm tr tu c tnh cht
tng kt v t vn cao v tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam, lnh o ca i hc Quc gia H Ni
v Trng i hc Kinh t quyt nh tp trung u t cho vic xy dng nhng bo co
tip theo, nhm to ra mt sn phm cht lng cao, mang tnh c th.
Kt qu l, sn phm th hai trong chui n phm ny, Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit
Nam 2010: La chn tng trng bn vng ra i vo u nm 2010 vi hai phin bn
ting Vit v ting Anh. iu ny nh du s pht trin ng hng ca nhm nghin cu,
vi quy m v ngha x hi ca sn phm ngy cng c khng nh v m rng.
Trn c s , k t nm 2011, i hc Quc gia quyt nh la chn a d n Bo co
Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam vo k hoch nghin cu hng nm, coi nh mt sn phm
chin lc c quy hoch pht trin lu di.
Bo co nm nay c hon thnh trong bi cnh nn kinh t th gii ang chng kin nhiu
bin ng kinh t-x hi-chnh tr phc tp sau giai on 2 nm suy thoi nghim trng
(2008-2009). Cng vi nhng din bin , nn kinh t Vit Nam ang phi i mt vi nhiu
thch thc pht trin mi sau mt thp nin tng trng da nhiu vo lng. Nm 2011 cng
l nm m u chin lc 5 nm, hng ti 2020 v xa hn na, nhng trc mt nn kinh t
ang chng kin nhng bt n v m tim tng, nh lm pht tng cao, thm ht ngn sch
ln, n cng tip tc tch ly, thm ht thng mi cha c ci thin, ci cch doanh
nghip nh nc cn nhiu vn , v.v iu cho thy Vit Nam ang ng trc mt
ng ba ng, vi nhng quyt nh quan trng lin quan n c hi v quyt tm tip tc ci
cch kinh t-x hi, thay i m hnh tng trng, ti cu trc nn kinh t, v.v to ra
nhng ng lc mi cho s tng trng kinh t v pht trin x hi mt cch vng chc trong
trung v di hn.

iv

Li gii thiu
Trc bi cnh rng ln v c tnh quyt nh nh vy, Nhm tc gi la chn mt s ch
quan trng thc hin nghin cu trong Bo co nm nay, em li nhiu pht hin mi,
c th lm c s cho nhng tng chnh sch thit thc.
Gi vng truyn thng ca nhng nm trc, Bo co tip tc pht huy nhng c th v
khc bit so vi nhiu bo co kinh t khc hin nay. l tinh thn nghin cu khoa hc
khch quan, phng php tip cn vn hin i vi s ng dng thun thc cc cng c
nh lng trong kinh t hc, v c bit l cc phn tch, kt lun, kin ngh chnh sch ch
yu da trn cc bng chng thc t. Nhm tc gi tip tc c m rng, a dng ha, thu
ht thm nhiu nh nghin cu trong v ngoi nc, c nhit huyt vi s pht trin ca t
nc v c thi nghim tc trong khoa hc.
Chng ti tin rng Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2011: Nn kinh t trc ng ba
ng s l mt ngun ti liu c gi tr tham kho hu ch v ng tin cy cho gii nghin
cu v hoch nh chnh sch, cc t chc kinh t-x hi v tt c nhng ai quan tm tm hiu
v thc trng ca nn Vit Nam hin nay.
H Ni, ngy 15/5/2011
PGS. TS. Phng Xun Nh
Ph Gim c, i hc Quc gia H Ni

N V THC HIN
TRUNG TM NGHIN CU KINH T V CHNH SCH (VEPR) c thnh lp
ngy 7/7/2008, l trung tm nghin cu trc thuc Trng i hc Kinh t - i hc Quc
gia H Ni. VEPR c t cch php nhn, t tr s chnh ti Trng i hc Kinh t HQGHN, Xun Thy, Cu Giy, H Ni.
Mc tiu ca VEPR l thc hin cc nghin cu kinh t v chnh sch nhm gip nng cao
cht lng ra quyt nh ca cc c quan hoch nh chnh sch, doanh nghip v cc nhm
li ch, da trn s thu hiu bn cht ca nhng vn ng kinh t v qu trnh iu hnh
chnh sch v m Vit Nam. Hot ng chnh ca VEPR bao gm phn tch nh tnh v
nh lng cc vn ca nn kinh t v tc ng ca chng ti cc nhm v t chc x hi
khc nhau; t chc cc hi tho i thoi chnh sch vi mc ch to iu kin cho cc nh
hoch nh chnh sch, lnh o doanh nghip v t chc x hi cng gp g, trao i nhm
xut gii php cho cc vn chnh sch ang ni ln; ng thi, t chc cc kha o to
cao cp v kinh t, ti chnh v phn tch chnh sch.

vi

NHM TC GI
(Xp theo th t bng ch ci)

TS. Phm Th Anh: nhn bng Tin s Kinh t ti i hc Manchester, Vng quc
Anh, chuyn gia kinh t v m, ging vin Khoa Kinh t hc, i hc Kinh t Quc dn, kim
Kinh t trng ca Cng ty Chng khon Thng Long, cng tc vin ca VEPR.
TS. T Thu Anh: nhn bng Tin s Kinh t ti i hc Iowa State, Hoa K, chuyn
gia kinh t quc t, Trng khoa Kinh t Quc t, i hc Ngoi thng H Ni, cng tc
vin ca VEPR.
Nguyn Hu Ch: ang trong giai on hon thnh chng trnh tin s kinh t ti i
hc Paris 13, Cng ha Php, ging vin khoa Thng k Trng i hc Kinh t quc dn,
cng tc vin ca Chng trnh DIAL-IRD ti Vit Nam.
TS. Nguyn Bnh Dng: nhn bng Tin s Kinh t ti i hc Paris 13, Cng ha
Php, chuyn gia kinh t quc t, ging vin Khoa Kinh t Quc t, i hc Ngoi thng H
Ni, cng tc vin ca VEPR.
TS. Phm Vn H: nhn bng Tin s Kinh t ti i hc Quc gia c (ANU), chuyn
gia kinh t v m v m hnh ha (CGE), Ph Vin trng Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Ti
chnh, B Ti chnh, cng tc vin ca VEPR.
TS. Nguyn Th Thu Hng: nhn bng Tin s kinh t ti i hc New York (NYU)
Hoa K, chuyn gia kinh t v m v kinh t ti chnh, ging vin Khoa Kinh t Pht trin,
i hc Kinh t, HQG HN, Ph gim c ph trch nghin cu ca VEPR.
TS. Nguyn Quc Hng: nhn bng Tin s kinh t ti i hc British Columbia,
Canada, chuyn gia kinh t v m v cc vn ng , nh nghin cu ca Vin cc Nn
Kinh t ang Pht trin (IDE), Tokyo, Nht Bn, cng tc vin ca VEPR.
inh Tun Minh: ang trong giai on hon thnh chng trnh tin s kinh t v thay
i cng ngh ti trng i hc Maastricht, H Lan, chuyn gia kinh t v m, kinh t cng
ngh, v kinh t ngnh, trng phng phn tch, khi Treasury, Ngn hng Qun i, cng tc
vin ca VEPR.
TS. Mireille Razafindrakoto: nhn bng Tin s kinh t ti Trng i hc Khoa hc
X Hi, Paris, Cng ha Php, chuyn gia kinh t ca Chng trnh DIAL-IRD ti Vit Nam,
vii

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
chuyn gia v th trng lao ng v khu vc phi chnh thc.
TS. Francois Roubaud: nhn bng Tin s kinh t ti Cng ha Php, chuyn gia kinh t
ca Chng trnh DIAL-IRD ti Vit Nam, chuyn gia thng k v cc vn v th trng
lao ng v khu vc phi chnh thc.
TS. Nguyn c Thnh: nhn bng Tin s Kinh t Pht trin ti Vin Nghin cu
Chnh sch Quc gia Nht Bn (GRIPS), chuyn gia v kinh t v m, thnh vin Nhm t
vn Kinh t V m ca y ban Kinh t ca Quc hi, Gim c kim Kinh t trng ca VEPR.
TS. ng Ngc T: nhn bng Tin s ti i hc Quc gia c (ANU), chuyn gia v
kinh t v m v ti chnh, hin cng tc ti Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Ti chnh, B Ti
chnh, cng tc vin ca VEPR.

viii

NHM T VN V PHN BIN

(Xp theo th t bng ch ci)

TS. Nguyn nh Cung (Ph Vin trng Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng),
TS. L ng Doanh (Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, nguyn Vin trng Vin Nghin cu
Qun l Kinh t Trung ng),
TS.

L Hng Giang (Gim c Qu Ngoi hi, Cng ty u t Tactical Global

Management),
GS. TSKH. V Minh Giang (Ph Gim c i hc Quc gia H Ni),
TS. Lu Bch H (Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, nguyn Vin trng Vin Chin lc Pht
trin, B K hoch v u t),
TS. V Quc Huy (Trng khoa Kinh t Pht trin, Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc
gia H Ni),
TS. Trn Vit K (Ch tch Trung tm u t, T vn v Thng mi Intervina),
B Phm Chi Lan (Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, nguyn Ph Ch tch Phng Thng mi v
Cng nghip Vit Nam),
PGS. TS. L B Lnh (Ph Ch nhim U ban Khoa hc, Cng ngh v Mi trng ca
Quc Hi),
PGS.TS. V i Lc (Tng Gim c Trung tm Kinh t Chu - Thi Bnh Dng, y
vin Hi ng Chnh sch Tin t Quc gia),
TS. L Xun Ngha (Ph Ch tch y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia),
TS. V Vit Ngon (Ph Ch nhim y ban Kinh t ca Quc Hi),
PGS.TS. Phng Xun Nh (Ph Gim c i hc Quc gia H Ni),
TS. L Hng Nht (Trng i hc Kinh t-Lut, i hc Quc gia TP. H Ch Minh),
PGS. TS. Nguyn Hng Sn (Hiu trng Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H
Ni),
TS. L L Thy (Gim c Trung tm u t, T vn v Thng mi Intervina),
TS. V Tr Thnh (Ph Vin trng Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng),
ix

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
. Trng nh Tuyn (y vin Hi ng Chnh sch Tin t Quc gia),
TS. inh Quang Ty (Th k khoa hc chuyn trch kinh t, Hi ng L lun Trung ng).

NHM BIN TP
Nguyn c Thnh

Bi Thy Linh

Nguyn Th Thu Hng

Nguyn Th H Trang

Phm Tuyt Mai

Nguyn c Hng

Hong Th Chinh Thon

Nguyn Vn Thnh

Hong Xun Dim

L i Hng

LI CM N
Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2011, do Trung tm Nghin cu Kinh t v
Chnh sch, Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni thc hin, c hon thnh
nh s gip ca nhiu c nhn v t chc.
Li cm n u tin m nhm tc gi mun gi n l Ban Gim c i hc Quc gia
H Ni - c bit l GS. TS. Mai Trng Nhun, Gim c, GS.TSKH. V Minh Giang v
PGS. TS. Phng Xun Nh, Ph Gim c, cng Ban Gim hiu trng i hc Kinh t HQGHN, c bit l PGS. TS. Nguyn Hng Sn, Hiu trng - nhng ngi lin tc
ng h nhm tc gi trong sut qu trnh thc hin Bo co.
Chng ti xin chn thnh cm n s h tr v ti chnh v chuyn mn ca vn phng B
Pht trin Quc t (DFID) ca Vng Quc Anh ti Vit Nam. S h tr thit thc v kp
thi ca DFID c ngha quan trng gip nng cao cht lng ni dung ca Bo co.
Mt ng gp c ngha quyt nh i vi s thnh cng ca d n l s gp sc ca
nhng chuyn gia thuc Nhm t vn v phn bin, nhng ngi tham d cc cuc trao
i, to m, hi tho trong nhng giai on khc nhau ca ton b qu trnh xy dng Bo
co, t lc hnh thnh tng cho n khi hon thin. Chng ti xin c gi li tri n c
bit ti TS. V Tr Thnh, TS. L ng Doanh, TS. inh Quang Ty, TS. V Vit Ngon, TS.
L Xun Ngha, TS. Trn Vit K, TS. L L Thy, TS. L Hng Nht, TS. Nguyn nh
Cung, ng Trng nh Tuyn v B Phm Chi Lan v nhng phn tch su sc, tm nhn
bao qut, cng nhng gp n cn nhng thng thn dnh cho tng c nhn trong nhm tc
gi.
Chng ti cng xin gi li cm n chn thnh ti cc thnh vin h tr ca Trung tm
Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch, c bit l Nhm bin tp. S nhit tnh, tn tm v kin
nhn ca h l mt phn khng th thiu trong vic hon thin Bo co ny.
Chng ti xin trn trng gi li cm n ti tp th cn b ca Ban Khoa hc Cng ngh HQGHN v Phng Nghin cu Khoa hc v Hp tc Pht trin Trng HKT, trong
phi k ti PGS. TS. Phm Hng Tung (HQG HN) v ThS. L Th Thanh Xun (Trng
HKT), v nhng h tr hu hiu v kp thi trong sut thi gian thc hin d n.
D rt n lc trong gii hn thi gian cho php, vi s tip thu nhng ng gp qu
bu v h tr nhit tnh ca nhiu chuyn gia v cng s, chng ti bit Bo co vn cn
nhiu hn ch v c nhng sai st. Chng ti chn thnh mong mun nhn c nhng ng
gp ca qu v c gi chng ti c c hi c hc hi v hon thin hn trong nhng
cng trnh tip theo.
H Ni, ngy 14/5/2011,
Thay mt Nhm tc gi,
TS. Nguyn c Thnh.
xi

MC LC
LI GII THIU
iv
N V THC HIN
vi
NHM TC GI
vii
NHM T VN V PHN BIN
ix
NHM BIN TP
x
LI CM N
xi
MC LC
xii
DANH MC HNH V TH
xv
DANH MC BNG
xix
DANH MC HP
xxiii
DANH MC CC CH VIT TT
xxiv
TM TT BO CO
1
Chng 1 TNG QUAN KINH T TH GII 2010: PHC HI NHNG CHA BN
VNG
10
Dn nhp .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Tng quan Kinh t th gii ............................................................................................................ 13
Khng hong n cng chu u...................................................................................................... 30
Chin tranh Tin t (Currency War) ............................................................................................ 36
Ti liu tham kho .......................................................................................................................... 44

Chng 2 TNG QUAN KINH T VIT NAM 2010

45

Dn nhp .......................................................................................................................................... 45
Din bin kinh t v m ................................................................................................................... 45
Chnh sch kinh t v m ................................................................................................................ 77
Kt lun ............................................................................................................................................ 82
Ti liu tham kho .......................................................................................................................... 83

Chng 3 RI RO KINH T V M TRONG BI CNH MI CA VIT NAM

85

Dn nhp .......................................................................................................................................... 85
T ri ro v m n khng hong kinh t-ti chnh: mt s vn l lun .............................. 86
c im ca ri ro kinh t v m Vit Nam ............................................................................. 95
Phng nga nhng ri ro tim tng ca nn kinh t ................................................................. 115
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 123

Chng 4 NHNG BI HC T MT THP K CHNG LM PHT VIT NAM

127
Dn nhp ........................................................................................................................................ 127
Bin ng ca lm pht k t thi k i mi n nay............................................................. 128
Tng quan nhng kt qu nghin cu trc y v cc nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht 136

xii

Mc lc
Phn tch cc nhn t v m c bn quyt nh lm pht Vit Nam ..................................... 140
Kt qu m hnh VECM v nhng tho lun chnh sch ......................................................... 144
Kt lun .......................................................................................................................................... 148
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 149

Chng 5 HNG TI XY DNG NN TNG CHO CHNH SCH LI SUT

VIT NAM
156
Dn nhp ........................................................................................................................................ 156
Qui tc Taylor v kim nghim cho Vit Nam ........................................................................... 157
Li sut t nhin: khi nim v phng php c nh ........................................................... 161
Phn tch cc yu t nh hng ti li sut Vit Nam ........................................................... 168
Kt lun v hm chnh sch ...................................................................................................... 175
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 176
Ph lc ........................................................................................................................................... 178

Chng 6 N CNG VIT NAM: RI RO V THCH THC

181

Dn nhp ........................................................................................................................................ 181

Nhng con s khng nht qun ................................................................................................... 182
nh gi ri ro n cng ................................................................................................................ 184
Thc trng ngun thu ................................................................................................................... 189
Ri ro li sut v t gi ................................................................................................................. 194
Bc tranh n cng 2011-2020 ...................................................................................................... 198
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 205

Chng 7 PHN TCH CU TRC THM HT CN CN THNG MI VIT

NAM TRUNG QUC
206
Tng quan v thng mi Vit Nam-Trung Quc ..................................................................... 207
T l thm nhp ca hng ha Trung Quc trn th trng Vit Nam ................................... 218
Nguyn nhn cn cn thng mi Vit Trung thm ht ln .................................................. 226
Kt lun .......................................................................................................................................... 232
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 234

Chng 8 TH TRNG LAO NG: NHN T LNG KNH CA KHU VC KINH

T PHI CHNH THC
239
Dn nhp ........................................................................................................................................ 239
S bin ng kt cu v cc ch tiu chnh ca th trng lao ng ........................................ 243
iu kin lm vic, vic lm phi chnh thc v tnh cht d b tc ng ................................. 251
Phng thc iu chnh trn th trng lao ng: thiu vic lm v a dng hot ng ...... 260
Bc tranh tng phn r rt : Phn tch trng tm vo khu vc kinh t phi chnh thc H
Ni v thnh ph H Ch Minh ................................................................................................... 265
Kt lun v hm chnh sch ...................................................................................................... 271
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 274

xiii

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
Chng 9 VIN CNH KINH T NM 2011 V HM CHNH SCH

277

Vin cnh kinh t Vit Nam nm 2011........................................................................................ 277

Khuyn ngh chnh sch ............................................................................................................... 283

PH LC BO CO

296

Ph lc 1: Ph lc Thng k ........................................................................................................ 297

Ph lc 2: Chnh sch kinh t chnh trong nm 2010 ................................................................ 350
Ti liu tham kho ........................................................................................................................ 370

xiv

DANH MC HNH V TH
Hnh 1.1. Ch s cng nghip so vi nh nm 2008, 2008 2010 (%) .................................. 14
Hnh 1.2. T trng GDP ton cu, 1995 2012 (%) ................................................................ 15
Hnh 1.3. GDP Trung Quc vt Nht, 1995 2012 (nghn t USD) ..................................... 16
Hnh 1.4. T l thp nghip tng thng M, 2006 2010 (%) ............................................. 17
Hnh 1.5. Thm ht ngn sch mt s nc ch cht, 2010 (% GDP) .................................... 18
Hnh 1.6. N cng, 2003 2012 (% GDP) .............................................................................. 18
Hnh 1.7. Ch s gi c, 2001 2010 (nm 2005=100)............................................................ 19
Hnh 1.8. T l lm pht, 2001 2010 (%) .............................................................................. 20
Hnh 1.9. T l lm pht mt s nc mi ni, 2009 2010 (%, yoy)................................. 21
Hnh 1.10. Tng trng xut khu, 2002 2012 (%)............................................................... 22
Hnh 1.11. Tng kim ngch xut khu, 2001 2012 (t USD) ............................................... 23
Hnh 1.12. Ch s gi hng ha, 2005 2011 (nm 2005=100)............................................... 26
Hnh 1.13. Thng d v Thm ht thng mi trong Bt cn bng ton cu, 2001- 2012 (%
GDP th gii)............................................................................................................................ 27
Hnh 1.14. Dng vn vo cc nc ang pht trin, 2003 2011 (t USD) ........................... 28
Hnh 1.15. D tr ngoi hi, 2003 2010 (t USD) ................................................................ 28
Hnh 1.16. N cng v thm ht ngn sch ti PIIGS v EU, 2009 (% GDP)......................... 31
Hnh 1.17. Li tc tri phiu Chnh ph, 2000 2010 (%) ..................................................... 31
Hnh 1.18. Ch s CDS ca PIIGS v c, 2008 2010 (im c bn).................................. 32
Hnh 1.19. Li tc tri phiu chnh ph ti PIIGS v c, 2010 (%) ..................................... 34
Hnh 1.20. T gi ng Nhn dn t v D tr ngoi hi ca Trung Quc, 2004 2010 ....... 38
Hnh 1.21. Bng cn i ti sn ca NHTW M, 2007 2011 (t USD) ................................ 39
Hnh 1.22. T gi ng Yn so vi USD, 2006 2010 (JPY/USD) ........................................ 39
Hnh 1.23. T gi hiu lc thc mt s nc pht trin, 2009 2010 (nm 2009 = 100) .... 40
Hnh 2.1. ng gp vo tc tng trng GDP, 1996-2010 (%) .......................................... 47
Hnh 2.2. Tng trng gi tr sn xut ngnh cng nghip theo thng, 2010 (%) ................... 49
Hnh 2.3. Din bin gi tr sn xut cng nghip theo ngnh, 1995-2010 (%) ........................ 51
Hnh 2.4. T trng cc ngnh dch v trong GDP ngnh dch v, 2010 (%) ........................... 52
Hnh 2.5. T trng cc thnh phn kinh t trong tng u t ton x hi, 2005-2009 (%)...... 55

xv

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
Hnh 2.6. Mi quan h gia u t v tng trng khu vc kinh t nh nc v ngoi nh
nc, 1995-2009 (%) ................................................................................................................ 56
Hnh 2.7. T trng u t ca khu vc kinh t nh nc trn GDP, 2005-2009 ..................... 58
Hnh 2.8. T trng vn FDI vo cc ngnh 2010 v ly k cc d n cn hiu lc n thng
12/2010 (%) .............................................................................................................................. 59
Hnh 2.9. Phn tch xu th tng trng kinh t Vit Nam, 2000-2010 (%) .............................. 64
Hnh 2.10. Phn tch chu k kinh t, 2000-2010 ...................................................................... 65
Hnh 2.11. Tnh hnh din bin gi c so vi cng k nm trc, 2009-2010 (%) .................. 66
Hnh 2.12. Din bin li sut v lm pht, 1995-2010 (%) ...................................................... 70
Hnh 2.13. ng cong li sut huy ng b o ngc (%) ................................................... 71
Hnh 2.14. Din bin t gi danh ngha, 2010-2011 ................................................................ 72
Hnh 2.15. T gi thc (tnh ton da trn t gi chnh thc) v tc tng trng kinh t,
1991-2010 (%) .......................................................................................................................... 73
Hnh 2.16. Din bin giao dch trn S giao dch chng khon TP. H Ch Minh, 2010 ........ 75
Hnh 2.17. Din bin giao dch trn S Giao dch Chng khon H Ni, 2010 ...................... 76
Hnh 3.1. u t xy dng c bn t NSNN, 2005-2010 (nghn t ng) .............................. 99
Hnh 3.2. Thu-chi v thm ht ngn sch, 2000-2009 (% GDP) ........................................... 100
Hnh 3.3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai v d tr ngoi hi, 2000-2009 ................................... 101
Hnh 3.4. m v mc nhp siu ca Vit Nam, 1999-2010 (% GDP) ........................ 102
Hnh 3.5. S pht trin ca su ti chnh, 1990-2009 (%) ................................................ 104
Hnh 3.6. Din bin ca li sut danh ngha, 2000-2010 (%)................................................. 104
Hnh 3.7. T trng GDP ca cc thnh phn kinh t, 1995-2010 (%) ................................... 108
Hnh 3.8. Din bin ca th trng chng khon TP H Ch Minh, 2003-2011 .................... 111
Hnh 3.9. Gi tr vn ha ca th trng chng khon, 2000-2010 (% GDP)........................ 111
Hnh 3.10. u t vng ca dn chng mt s nc, 2006-2008 (tn) .............................. 114
Hnh 3.11. M hnh v ri ro v m ca nn kinh t Vit Nam .............................................. 117
Hnh 4.1. T l lm pht (phi) v t gi hi oi chnh thc VND/USD (tri), 1992-2010. 129
Hnh 4.2. T l lm pht Vit Nam, tc tng cung tin v tn dng, 1996-2010 .............. 130
Hnh 4.3. T l lm pht ca Vit Nam v mt s nc, 2000-2010 (%) .............................. 132
Hnh 4.4. Ch s CPI lng thc thc phm v phi lng thc thc phm Vit Nam,
2000T1-2011T4 ...................................................................................................................... 135
(gc l u nm 2000) ............................................................................................................ 135
Hnh 4.5. Lm pht hng nm (theo thng), 2001T1-2011T4 (%)......................................... 136
Hnh 4.6. Cc knh truyn ti n lm pht ........................................................................... 142
xvi

Danh mc hnh v th
Hnh 4.A1. S liu di dng log, 2001-2010 ....................................................................... 152
Hnh 5.1. c lng li sut t nhin cc thng, 2000-2010................................................. 167
Hnh 5.2. Li sut t nhin xc nh theo cc c lng lm pht k vng khc nhau, 20002010 (%) ................................................................................................................................. 168
Hnh 5.3. T l tit kim v u t, 1991-2009 (% GDP)...................................................... 170
Hnh 5.4. Mi quan h gia tc tng M2, CPI v li sut huy ng, 2001-2010 (%) ....... 173
Hnh 5.5. CPI thc t, bnh qun 12 thng v k vng cho 12 thng sau so vi cng k nm
trc, 2001 2010 (%) ........................................................................................................... 174
Hnh 6.1. D kin ngha v n trong nc v nc ngoi, 2011 2023 (nghn t ng) ..... 187
Hnh 6.2. CDS ca Tri phiu Chnh ph Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc, 2006 2010
................................................................................................................................................ 188
Hnh 6.3. So snh quc t - t l thu t thu v ph, 2000 2009 (% GDP) ......................... 190
Hnh 6.4. T trng cc ngun thu, 2006 2011 (%) .............................................................. 191
Hnh 6.B2. Cung tin, vay n trong nc v lm pht Vit Nam, 2000 2010 ................. 192
Hnh 6.5. T trng cc khon n nc ngoi theo cc mc li sut khc nhau, 2002 2010
(%) .......................................................................................................................................... 195
Hnh 6.6. Li sut hu hiu ca n cng nc ngoi, 2002 2010 (%) ................................ 195
Hnh 6.7. T trng n cng nc ngoi tnh theo cc ng tin khcnhau, 6/2010............... 197
Hnh 6.B3. T gi hi oi hu hiu danh ngha (NEER) v CPI, 2002 2010 ................... 198
Hnh 7.1. Xut khu, nhp khu v nhp siu gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc, 1995 2010 207
Hnh 7.2. Nhp siu ca Vit Nam t Trung Quc so vi tng nhp siu ca Vit Nam, 2005
2009 (%) .............................................................................................................................. 208
Hnh 7.3. Xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc theo nhm hng, 2008 ....................... 209
Hnh 7.4. Nhp khu ca Vit Nam t Trung Quc theo nhm hng, 2008 (%) ................... 210
Hnh 8.1. T l dn s hot ng kinh t theo nhm tui, 2007 v 2009 (%)........................ 245
Hnh 8.2. Tht nghip v GDP ca Vit Nam, 1996-2009 (%) .............................................. 248
Hnh 8.3. T l tht nghip theo cc nhm tui v thnh th/ nng thn, 2007 v 2009 (%) 249
Hnh 8.4. V th vic lm theo gii tnh v thnh th/nng thn, 2007 v 2009 (%) ........... 254
Hnh 8.5. Phn b thu nhp, 2007 v 2009 (gi c nh 2007) .............................................. 259

xvii

DANH MC BNG
Bng 1.1. Tng trng GDP th gii, 2009 2012 (%)........................................................... 14
Bng 1.2. T l tht nghip cc vng trn th gii, 2007 2010 (%) ...................................... 17
Bng 1.3. N ca Hy Lp ti cc ngn hng nc ngoi vo qu 4, 2009 .............................. 33
Bng 2.1. Tc tng trng GDP cc ngnh, 2006-2010 (%) .............................................. 46
Bng 2.2. T trng cc ngnh trn GDP theo gi c nh, 2000-2010 (%).............................. 47
Bng 2.3. Tng trng gi tr sn xut nng, lm nghip v thy sn, 2001 2010 (%) ........ 48
Bng 2.4. Tng trng gi tr sn xut cng nghip theo thnh phn kinh t, 2001-2010 (%) 50
Bng 2.5. Tc tng trng GDP cc ngnh dch v, 2005-2010 (%).................................. 52
Bng 2.6. Din bin tng trng cc thnh phn tng cu, 2005-2010 (%) ............................ 53
Bng 2.7. T trng cc thnh phn tng cu trong GDP, 2005-2010 (%) ............................... 53
Bng 2.8. Mt s ch tiu i din cho tiu dng cui cng, 2008-2010 (% tng) .................. 54
Bng 2.9. u t x hi trn GDP, 2005-2010 (%) ................................................................. 57
Bng 2.10. Vn FDI v vn u t ra nc ngoi, 2006-2010 (t USD) ................................ 58
Bng 2.11. Xut nhp khu v cn cn thng mi, 2006-2010 .............................................. 60
Bng 2.12. Tnh hnh nhp siu, 1995-2010 (triu USD)......................................................... 61
Bng 2.13. Mt hng nhp khu ln nht t Trung Quc v Hn Quc, 2010 ........................ 61
Bng 2.14. Ch s tng trng xut khu mt s mt hng, 2006-2010 (% so vi nm trc)62
Bng 2.15. Ch s tng trng nhp khu mt s mt hng, 2006-2010 (% so vi nm trc)
.................................................................................................................................................. 63
Bng 2.16. Tnh hnh din bin gi c, 2005-2009 (% so vi Thng 12 nm trc) ............... 66
Bng 2.17. C cu lao ng ang lm vic trong cc khu vc kinh t, 2005 2010 (%) ....... 67
Bng 2.18. Din bin tnh hnh tht nghip ca Vit Nam, 2008-2010 (%) ........................... 67
Bng 2.19. Mt s ch tiu cn cn thanh ton, 2007-2010 (t USD)...................................... 68
Bng 2.20. Din bin tnh hnh li sut cui k, 2009-2010 (%/nm) ..................................... 69
Bng 2.21. Din bin u thu tri phiu chnh ph s cp trn S GDCK H Ni, 2010 ..... 74
Bng 2.22. Din bin giao dch tri phiu chnh ph trn th trng th cp ti S GDCK H
Ni, 2010 .................................................................................................................................. 74
Bng 2.23. Thu chi ngn sch, 2006-2011 ............................................................................... 79
Bng 2.24. Din bin tin t, 2005-2010 (% tng so vi cui nm trc) ............................... 81
Bng 3.1. Chnh lch tit kim u t, 2002-2009 (% GDP) ............................................... 97
Bng 3.2. Th phn ca cc ngn hng thng mi, 2000-2007 ............................................ 106
xix

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
Bng 3.3. Mt s ch tiu phn nh lnh mnh ca h thng NHTM, 2006-2008 ............ 107
Bng 3.4. Tn dng cho DNNN v ngoi DNNN, 2005-2008 ............................................... 109
Bng 3.5. Gi tr vn ha ca TTCK theo cc khu vc khc nhau trn th gii .................... 112
Bng 4.A1.Kt qu m hnh VECM m rng ........................................................................ 153
Bng 5.1. Phn r li sut danh ngha ngn hn ..................................................................... 162
Bng 5.2. Tn dng v huy ng trong h thng ngn hng Vit Nam, 2000-2008 (nghn t
ng) ....................................................................................................................................... 171
Bng 5.3. Xp hng tn nhim ca Moody i vi Vit Nam ................................................ 172
Bng 6.1. Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ca Vit Nam, 2000 2010 (%GDP)................. 183
Bng 6.2. N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, 2000 2010 (%GDP)............................................ 183
Bng 6.3. N cng nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, 2000 2010 (%GDP) ................................... 183
Bng 6.4. Mt s ch tiu n cng, 2005 2010 (%) ............................................................. 185
Bng 7.1. Cn cn thng mi vi Trung Quc ca mt s nc trong khu vc, 2008 (t
USD) ....................................................................................................................................... 213
Bng 7.2. C cu nhp khu t Trung Quc ca cc nc trong khu vc, 2008 (%) ............ 214
Bng 7.3. C cu xut khu sang Trung Quc ca cc nc trong khu vc, 2008 (%)......... 215
Bng 7.4. Mt s hng mc chnh cn cn thanh ton ca Vit Nam vi Trung Quc, 2006
2010 (triu USD) .................................................................................................................... 217
Bng 7.5. T l thm nhp ca Trung Quc trn th trng Vit Nam, 1999 2008 ............ 220
Bng 7.6. So snh s thay i v t l thm nhp v tc tng trng sn xut ni a, 2001
2008 ..................................................................................................................................... 221
Bng 7.7. T l thm nhp ca Trung Quc v lnh vc sn xut, 2008 ............................... 223
Bng 7.8. Nhp siu v cnh tranh ca hng ha Trung Quc trn th trng Vit Nam ...... 224
Bng 7.9. Top 20 sn phm Vit Nam nhp khu t Trung Quc, 2008 ............................... 225
Bng 7.10. Cc d n thu trng im ca Trung Quc ti Vit Nam, 2007 - 2010 ............. 229
Bng 7.A1. Xut khu, nhp khu v nhp siu gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc, 1995 2010
(triu USD) ............................................................................................................................. 236
Bng 7.A2. Cc mt hng xut khu ch yu ca Vit Nam sang Trung Quc, 2010........... 236
Bng 7.A3. Cc mt hng nhp khu ch yu ca Vit Nam t Trung Quc, 2010 .............. 238
Bng 8.1. T l dn s hot ng kinh t theo thnh th/nng thn v gii tnh, 2007 v 2009
(%) .......................................................................................................................................... 244
Bng 8.2. T l tht nghip theo thnh th/nng thn v gii tnh, 2007 v 2009 (%) ......... 246
Bng 8.3. T l tht nghip theo thnh th/nng thn v gii tnh, 2007 v 2009 (%) ......... 249
Bng 8.4. T l vic lm theo khu vc th ch v thnh th/nng thn, 2007 v 2009 (%).. 251
xx

Danh mc bng
Bng 8.5. T l lao ng lm cng theo khu vc th ch, 2007 v 2009 (%) ........................ 252
Bng 8.6. Hp ng v phng thc tr th lao i vi lao ng lm cng n lng, 2007 v
2009 (%) ................................................................................................................................. 255
Bng 8.7. Vic lm phi chnh thc trong vic lm chnh theo khu vc th ch, 2007 v 2009
................................................................................................................................................ 256
Bng 8.8. Tc tng ca thu nhp bnh qun v trung v ca cc khu vc th ch, 2007 v
2009 ........................................................................................................................................ 258
Bng 8.9. S gi lm vic v t l thiu vic lm theo thnh th/nng thn, 2007 v 2009 (%)
................................................................................................................................................ 262
Bng 8.10. T l lao ng lm nhiu cng vic theo thnh th/nng thn v gii tnh, 2007 v
2009 (%) ................................................................................................................................. 263
Bng 8.11. T l lao ng a ngh theo khu vc th ch, 2007 v 2009 ............................... 264
Bng 8.12. T l chnh thc ha v phi chnh thc ha, 2007-2009 (%) ............................... 267
Bng 8.13. Bin ng thu nhp, dnh v t l h gia nh phi ct gim chi tiu (% s h
tng ng) .............................................................................................................................. 268
Bng 8.14. H tr ca Nh nc dnh cho cc h sn xut kinh doanh trong thi k khng
hong (%) ............................................................................................................................... 270
Bng 9.1. Cc ch tiu kinh t Vit Nam theo gi c nh nm 1994, 2006 2011 (nghn t
ng) ....................................................................................................................................... 281

xxi

DANH MC HP
Hp 1.1. Hip nh i tc xuyn Thi Bnh Dng-TPP ...................................................... 24
Hp 3.1. Cc nhn nh khc nhau v nguyn nhn cuc khng hong ti chnh Chu ...... 94
Hp 5.1. Lch s qui tc Taylor .............................................................................................. 159
Hp 5.2. Phng php lc Hodrick-Prescott .......................................................................... 165
Hp 6.1. Thu lm pht .......................................................................................................... 192
Hp 6.2. T gi hu hiu danh ngha ..................................................................................... 198
Hp 6.3. Cu chuyn Vinashin v bi hc cho cc tp on kinh t nh nc ...................... 200

xxiii

DANH MC CC CH VIT TT
ADB
APEC

: Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (Asian Development Bank)

: Din n Hp tc Kinh t chu Thi Bnh Dng (Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation)
ARIMA
: Autoregressive integrated moving average
ASEAN
: Hip hi cc Quc gia ng Nam (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
ASEAN+3
: C ch hp tc ASEAN v ba nc ng Bc bao gm Trung Quc, Nht
Bn v Hn Quc
Basel I, II, III : Cc b tiu chun qun l v gim st cc ngn hng
CDS
: Kh nng v n (Credit Default Swap)
CHMC
: Tng cng ty thit b nng Trung Quc
CIEM
: Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng
CIT
: Thu thu nhp doanh nghip (Corporate Income Tax)
CMC
: Tp on quc doanh xut nhp khu ch to my Trung Quc (China National
Machinery Import and Export Copr.)
CN
: Cng nghip
CNY
: ng Nhn dn t (Chinese Yuan)
CPI
: Ch s gi tiu dng (Consumer Price Index )
DNNN
: Doanh nghip nh nc
DNPX
: Doanh nghip phng x
DNTN
: Doang nghip t nhn
DSGE
: m hnh cn bng tng th ngu nhin ng (Dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium modeling)
T L&VL : iu tra Lao ng v Vic lm
ECB
: Ngn hng Trung ng chu u (European Central Bank)
EIU
: B phn phn tch thng tin kinh t ca Tp ch Economist (Economist
Intellegence Unit)
EMS
: H thng tin t chu u (European Monetary System)
EMU
: Lin minh kinh t v tin t chu u (Economic and Monetary Union of the
European Union)
EPC
: Thit k - cung ng vt t thit b - xy lp (Engineering, Procurement and
Construction)
EPR
: H s bo h sn xut hu hiu (Effective Rate of Protection)
EPZ
: Khu ch xut (Export Processing Zone)
EU
: Lin minh chu u (European Union)
EV
: Bin ng tng ng (Equivalent variations)
FDI
: u t trc tip nc ngoi (Foreign Direct Investment)
xxiv

Danh mc cc ch vit tt
FDIC
FED
FTA
G20
GDCK
GDP
GSO
HB&IS
HP:
IFS
ILO
ILSSA
IMF
IPSARD
IRD-DIAL
ISIC Rev 3
JPY
KTPCT
KTXH
MoF
NEER
NHNN
NHTM
NHTMCP
NHTW
NSNN
ODA
OECD
PIIGS
PPP

: Tp on Bo him Tin gi Lin bang (Federal Deposit Insurance

Corporation)
: Cc d tr Lin bang M (Federal Reserve System)
: Khu vc thng mi t do (Free Trade Area)
: Nhm 20 nn kinh t ln nht th gii
: Giao dch Chng khon
: Tng sn phm trong nc (Gross Domestic Product)
: Tng cc thng k (General Statistics Office)
: iu tra Kinh doanh h gia nh v khu vc phi chnh thc (Household
Business & Informal Sector Survey)
: Phng php lc Hodrick-Prescott
: Thng k ti chnh quc t (International Financial Statistics)
: T chc Lao ng Quc t (International Labor Organization)
: Vin Khoa hc Lao ng v X hi (Institute of Labour Science and Social
Affairs)
: Qu tin t quc t (International Monetary Fund)
: The Institute of Policy and Strategy For Agriculture (Vin Chnh sch v Chin
lc Pht trin Nng nghip Nng thn)
: Vin nghin cu Pht trin Php (French Institute of Research for
Development)
: Danh mc tiu chun ngnh quc t (phin bn 3) (Industrial System
International Classification Revision 3)
: ng Yn Nht (Japanese Yen)
: Kinh t phi chnh thc
: Kinh t X hi
: B Ti Chnh (Ministry Of Finance)
: T gi hi oi hu hiu danh ngha (Norminal Effective Exchange Rate)
: Ngn hng Nh nc (Vit Nam)
: Ngn hng thng mi
: Ngn hng Thng mi C phn
: Ngn hng Trung ng
: Ngn sch Nh nc
: Vn h tr pht trin chnh thc (Official Development Assistance)
: T chc Hp tc v Pht trin Kinh t (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development)
: Cc quc gia ngoi vi chu u nh: Hy Lp, B o Nha, Ty Ban Nha,
Ireland,
: Ngang bng sc mua (Purchasing Power Parity)
xxv

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
QE
REER
SEC
SFECO
SITC

:
:
:
:
:

SME
SOE
SXKD
TCTK
TKV
TPP

:
:
:
:
:
:

TTCK
UN
UNDP
UNSTAT
US BTA
USD
VASS
VAT
VKHTK
VND
VSIC

:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:

WB
WEC
WTO

:
:
:

Ni lng v lng (Quantitative Easing)

T gi hi oi hu hiu thc t (Real Effective Exchange Rate)
Tp on in kh Thng Hi (Shanghai Electric Group Co Ltd)
Tp on Hp tc kinh t k thut i ngoi Thng Hi
Danh mc tiu chun ngoi thng (Standard International Trade
Classification)
Doanh nghip va v nh (Small and Medium Enterprises)
State Owned Enterprise
Sn xut kinh doanh
Tng cc Thng k
Tp on Than v Khong sn Vit Nam
Hip nh i tc kinh t xuyn Thi Bnh Dng (Trans-Pacific Partnership
Agreement)
Th trng chng khon
Lin hp quc (United Nations)
Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc (United Nation Development Program)
C quan Thng k Lin Hp Quc (United Nations Statistical Division)
Hip nh thng mi song phng vi M
la M (United States Dollar)
Vietnam Academy of Social Science (Vin Khoa hc X hi Vit Nam)
Thu Gi tr Gia tng (Value Added Tax)
Vin Khoa hc Thng k Vit Nam
ng tin Vit Nam (Vietnamese Dong)
H thng ngnh kinh t quc dn Vit Nam (Vietnamese Standard Industrial
Classsification)
Ngn hng th gii (World Bank)
Cng ty Wuhan Engineering and Technology, Trung Quc
T chc Thng mi Th gii (World Trade Organization)

xxvi

TM TT BO CO
Nm 2011 l nm u tin ca k hoch pht trin 5 nm, m u chin lc pht trin
n nm 2020 v xa hn na. y cng l nm bt u ca mt chu k chnh tr mi, sau khi kt
thc i hi ng XI, tin ti bu c Quc hi Kha XIII v thnh lp Chnh ph mi vo gia
nm. ng thi, y cng l giai on bi cnh th gii chng kin nhiu kh khn v bt trc v
cuc khng hong kinh t th gii, din bin chnh tr ti cc nc rp, s thay i cc din
kinh t trn ton cu, v.v Trong bi cnh y, nn kinh t Vit Nam bc l nhng im yu t
m hnh tng trng kinh t, ng thi c nhiu biu hin cho thy s bi ri trong la chn
chin lc v chnh sch pht trin. iu ny tc ng trc tip n tnh hnh kinh t trong
ngn hn, th hin qua s bt n v m trin min trong nhng nm gn y. Nhng kh khn v
ri ro tch t bn trong e da s n nh v m, kh nng duy tr tng trng cao ca nn
kinh t, v mc hi nhp quc t. V th, y l thi im Vit Nam ang ng trc nhng
la chn to ln. Nu khng c nhng quyt nh sng sut v m hnh tng trng, v la chn
ng lc cho tng trng (khu vc t nhn hay khu vc quc doanh), v phng php hoch
nh, phi hp v iu hnh chnh sch, v chin lc hi nhp quc t, v ci cch th ch
mnh m, th nn kinh t c th s phi i din vi s tr tr ko di i lin vi bt n v m lin
tc. Hu qu trc tip c th l nhng cuc khng hong ti chnh-kinh t mang tnh lin hon,
hoc mt cch gin tip l s b l nhng c hi pht trin nhanh cho mt nc c nhiu tim
nng nh Vit Nam.
V l do , Bo co Thng nin Kinh t Vit Nam 2011 vi ch Nn kinh t trc
ng ba ng, tip tc gii quyt nhng vn ln c t ra t nhng Bo co trc. Ni
dung ca Bo co nm nay, ngoi hai chng nh gi v nhn nh v tnh hnh kinh t th gii
v trong nc trong nm 2010, bao gm nhng vn cn bn nh phn tch ri ro v m ca
Vit Nam trong thi gian ti, v nhng bi hc cho mt chnh sch chng lm pht c hiu qu,
v chnh sch li sut, v vn n cng, vn thm ht thng mi gia Vit Nam v Trung
Quc, cng nh th trng lao ng vi khu vc phi chnh thc phi chu ng nhiu tn thng
trong nhng nm kh khn v kinh t v bt n v m. Cui cng, Bo co a ra nhng nhn
nh chung v vin cnh kinh t nm 2011 v gi cc nhm chnh sch phc v cho vic n
nh kinh t v m v duy tr tng trng kinh t bn vng trong trung v di hn.

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG

Tng quan v kinh t th gii nm 2010

Tri qua hai nm trong cuc i Suy thoi 2008-2009, nn kinh t ton cu phc hi
mnh trong hai qu u nm 2010. Tuy nhin t gia nm, xut hin s phn ha r rt gia
nhm cc nc phng Ty pht trin v nhm cc nc phng ng ang pht trin. Trong
khi cc nc ang pht trin tip tc vt qua khng hong v tng trng mnh m th kinh t
cc nc phng Ty bt u chng li. Bn cnh tng trng thp, cc nc pht trin cn phi
i mt vi t l tht nghip cao v ko di. c bit nghim trng hn, n cng cao v thm ht
ngn sch trm trng y Lin minh Kinh t chu u (EU) vo mt cuc khng hong mi,
khng hong n cng, v e da s n nh ca h thng ti chnh th gii.
Tuy t chu nh hng trc tip t EU, kinh t M phc hi kh chm trong khi t l tht
nghip vn mc cao l gn 10%. y l nguyn nhn chnh khin Cc d tr lin bang M
(Fed) buc phi tip tc duy tr chnh sch tin t ni lng vc nn kinh t. Kt qu l mt
lng ln thanh khon c bm ra th trng trong khi li sut gn bng khng.
Chnh sch tin t ni lng nh lng qu mc v li sut gn bng khng ti cc nn
kinh t ch cht khin dng vn r trn ngp th trng ti chnh th gii, c bit l ti cc
nn kinh t mi ni ni c li sut v li nhun cao. Ngn hng Trung ng cc nh nc ny
phi cht vt can thip th trng kim ch ng ni t tng gi. Ln sng can thip t gi ny
dy ln mi lo ngi v mt cuc Chin tranh Tin t v chm ngi cho Chin tranh Thng
mi y kinh t th gii vo mt i Khng hong mi. Rt may cuc ua ph gi khng
nghim trng nh nhiu ngi lo ngi, mt phn nh s hp tc phi hp ca nhm G20. Tuy
nhin, dng vn nng gia tng mnh trong nm gp phn lm gi cc loi hng ha tng t
bin v lm pht quay li cc nc mi ni do tng trng nng.
Cui cng, nm 2010 cng nh du mt thay i ln v t duy qun l v gim st h
thng ngn hng v ti chnh vi s ra i ca o lut Dodd-Frank v b quy chun Basel III
nhm gim thiu ri ro v nng cao hn cc chun mc v t l an ton vn ca cc ngn hng
thng mi.

Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam 2010

Nn kinh t Vit Nam nm 2010 vn tip tc hi phc ca nm 2009 v c tc tng
trng cao hn nm trc. Tuy nhin, mt tri ca chnh sch kch cu cng dn th hin
2

Tm tt bo co
khin cho nn kinh t ng trc mt s nguy c mt n nh, nh: Lm pht tng cao, ko theo
li sut gia tng c th nh hng ti tc tng trng kinh t trong thi gian ti; Bt u xut
hin nhng mo m trong h thng gi c khi gi c cc mt hng chin lc c duy tr n
nh mc thp trc mt s lm tng thm ht ngn sch v v di hn s c nguy c nh
hng sai u t v tiu dng; Thm ht ngn sch vn mc cao, chi thng xuyn tng v
ang mc cao, trong khi chi u t pht trin ang trong xu hng gim s c nh hng
nht nh ti tc tng trng kinh t; Thm ht thng mi ko di, gy p lc ln t gi hi
oi.
n nh kinh t, nm 2011 u tin hng u ca chnh ph l cn phi thc thi chnh
sch tin t tht cht. Cn tnh ton li cc ch tiu tin t cho ph hp vi giai on pht trin
hin nay v iu hnh mt cch nht qun, dt khot bng cc cng c mang tnh cht th trng.
i vi chnh sch ti kha cng cn c tht cht mt cch kin quyt, nhng trn c s
tnh ton n kh nng tng trng di hn. Vic ct gim chi u t xy dng c bn t Ngn
sch Nh nc cn phi c thc hin ng thi vi vic a dng ha hay x hi ha cc khon
u t xy dng c bn nh cc hnh thc u t theo dng BOT, BT hay u t hp tc cng
t (PPP) m bo ngun lc x hi cho u t c s h tng. Khng th ct gim chi u t
pht trin mt cch trn lan v nh vy s nh hng ti kh nng tng trng trong di hn.

Ri ro kinh t v m trong bi cnh mi ca Vit Nam

Mc tiu ca Chng 3 l tm hiu nhng ri ro v m cn bn ca Vit Nam trong bi
cnh mi, vi mong mun xut mt khung kh phn tch nhm tm ra mi lin h gia nhng
nguyn nhn v hu qu chnh.
Kt qu phn tch cho thy tm im ca nguy c ri ro v m ca Vit Nam hin nay
nm trong khu vc ngn hng thng mi. Khu vc ny chu p lc ri ro t hai khu vc ln l
khu vc doanh nghip, trong h thng doanh nghip nh nc vi nhng tim n ri ro ti
chnh ng vai tr ch cht, v khu vc th trng ti sn, trong th trng bt ng sn vi
gi c b km gi mc cao (bong bng) trong mt thi gian di tch t nhng nguy c tim
tng.
Ba khu vc k trn, n lt n, b nh hnh bi m hnh tng trng hin nay v cn
bn da trn m rng u t. y l nguyn nhn khin khong cch tit kim-u t ca nn
3

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
kinh t ngy cng m rng, m ct li l khong cch tit kim u t trong khu vc cng
(thm ht ngn sch). iu ny tt yu i lin vi thm ht cn cn vng lai, dn ti hin tng
thm ht kp kinh nin. Nhng mt cn i khin nn kinh t tr nn d tn thng trc
cc c sc t bn ngoi, m nguy c trc tip l cc cuc khng hong tin t.
Kt qu l, Vit Nam ang dn ln su vo qu o in hnh ca mt nn kinh t hm
cha ri ro khng hong ngn hng i lin vi ri ro khng hong tin t (khng hong i). Ri
ro v khng hong n l cha r rng, nhng c th s din bin rt nhanh khi h thng ngn
hng v ti chnh lm vo khng hong, buc Chnh ph phi ng ra gii cu trong khi ngun
thu suy gim, khin ngn sch b cn kit nhanh trong mt thi gian ngn. Nhng ri ro ny i
hi Vit Nam cn xy dng mt l trnh r rng bao gm nhiu giai on nhm ti lp nhng cn
i c bn trong nn kinh t, m tm im u tin l cn i ti kha v ci cch h thng ti
chnh, v cn mt s thn trng trong l trnh hng ti t do ha ti khon vn.

Ngun gc lm pht Vit Nam giai on 2000-2010

Trong chng ny, nhm tc gi kho st nhng bin ng ca lm pht Vit Nam
trong thp k qua vi mi quan h cht ch n mt lot nhng thay i trong mi trng kinh t
cng nh trong cc chnh sch kinh t v m. Tip , ni dung nghin cu tp trung xem xt cc
nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht Vit Nam trong giai on 2000-2010. M hnh c xy
dng trong chng nynu ra ba knh truyn ti m qua mt lot cc bin ni sinh v ngoi
sinh c th nh hng n mc gi.Cc knh l knh ngang gi sc mua (PPP), knh tng cu
(AD) v knh tng cung (AS). Nhng kt qu ch yu ca nghin cu bao gm: (1) tr tr ca
lm pht Vit Nam (hay cn gi l k c v lm pht) l cao v l mt nhn t quan trng quyt
nh lm pht ca Vit Nam trong hin ti khin lm pht thng xuyn n nh mc cao; (2)
tc iu chnh l rt thp trn c th trng tin t v th trng ngoi hi, ngm rng kim
sot lm pht mt cch c hiu qu l rt kh mt khi n bt u tng ln; (3) mc chuyn t
gi vo lm pht l ng k trong ngn hn vi vic ph gi dn n gi c tng ln trong khi
thm ht ngn sch cng dn khng th hin nhiu tc ng n lm pht do tc ng ngc
chiu nhau ca vic tng li sut v tng cung tin; (4) cung tin v li sut c tc ng n lm
pht nhng vi tr khin vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t nhm kim sot lm pht tr nn
kh khn; v (5) mc chuyn trong ngn hn ca gi quc t n gi ni a (nhp khu lm
pht) cng c vai tr nht nh nhng khng quan trng nh cc nhn t ni a.
4

Tm tt bo co
T nhng kt qu nghin cu trn, nhm tc gi a ra nhng khuyn ngh nhm h tr
vic iu hnh chnh sch ca Chnh ph. C th, Chnh ph cn kin tr chng lm pht v gi
lm pht mc thp trong thi gian t nht l su thng to nim tin cho cng chng. Phn
ng vi lm pht thng qua cc chnh sch nhm tc ng vo cc yu t pha cu thng qua cc
chnh sch ti kha v tin t cn c thc hin sm v trnh git cc.

Hng ti xy dng nn tng cho chnh sch li sut Vit Nam

Kinh t Vit Nam trong nm 2010 i din vi hin tng li sut tng cao tr li, c thi
im ln ti 17%, sau mt thi gian li sut thp ca nm 2009. Trc , trong giai on 20012007, Vit Nam tri qua mt giai on li sut rt n nh, vi li sut huy ng danh ngha
k hn 3 thng ch dao ng trong khong 6% n 6,5%. Mc ch ca Chng 5 l tm hiu cc
yu t hnh thnh v quyt nh li sut ca Vit Nam, giai on 2001-2010.
Trc ht, chng ti tm hiu liu li sut ca Vit Nam c c iu hnh da trn mt
qui tc chun mc no hay khng, c th l qui tc Taylor? Kt qu cho thy li sut ca Vit
Nam khng tun theo qui tc chun. Tip n, nhm tc gi tm hiu cc yu t hnh thnh li
sut danh ngha Vit Nam da trn khi nim li sut t nhin. Nhm tc gi pht hin ra rng
ng li sut ca Vit Nam c xu hng gim dn trong giai on 2001-2007 v ch quay tr
li xu hng tng t 2008. Tuy nhin, iu nghim trng l ng li sut t nhin ca Vit
Nam lun m k t 2004. Vi ng li sut t nhin b m, s phn b ngun lc trong nn
kinh t s tr nn khng c hiu qu. Nguyn nhn khin ng li sut t nhin b m l do
lng vn cung ra th trng rt nhiu trong giai on 2000-2007. Trong giai on ny, t l tit
kim, u t nc ngoi, kiu hi, v vn vay nc ngoi u tng. Trong khi kh nng hp
th vn ca doanh nghip Vit Nam li khng c ci thin. Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) li
khng c chnh sch tin t ph hp kim sot tin lu thng trong nn kinh t. Kt qu l
vn c s dng khng hiu qu gy ra lm pht. Khi NHNN a ra cc bin php mnh i
ph vi lm pht, thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng tr nn kh khn, dn n li sut b y
ln cao. Trong thi gian ti, NHNN nn iu hnh chnh sch sao cho ng li sut t nhin
ca Vit Nam tng dn v tr nn dng. Ngoi ra, NHNN cng nn cn nhc vic xy dng v
iu hnh li sut theo mt qui tc nht qun cn bng cc mc tiu nh duy tr tng trng,
kim sot lm pht, v n nh t gi. Vic theo ui chnh sch tin t da trn mt qui tc iu

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
hnh li sut nht qun s gip chnh sch ca NHNN tr nn minh bch, c lp, v d dng
giao tip vi th trng.

N cng ca Vit Nam: Ri ro v Thch thc

Thng qua vic xem xt nhng con s t nhng ngun khc nhau hin nay xung quanh
vn n cng Vit Nam, tc gi ca Chng 6 nhn thy rng thng k v thm ht ngn
sch v n cng ca Vit Nam hin c nhiu khc bit khng tun theo chun mc quc t. S
bt nht trong s liu v n cng ang gy nhiu lon thng tin cho nhng ngi tham gia th
trng. ng thi n khin cho vic so snh quc t, nh gi, v qun l ri ro n cng ca
Vit Nam gp kh khn.
Mc d c khc nhau, nhng s liu t B Ti Chnh cng nh t cc t chc quc t u
cho thy mt xu hng ang tng nhanh ca n cng Vit Nam trong nhng nm gn y. N
cng nc ngoi v tng n cng ln lt vt mc 30% v 50% GDP. Nhng con s ny c
th cha vt ngng an ton nhng n cng pht i nhng cnh bo v vic cn thit phi thay
i k hoch chi tiu ngn sch nhm gim tc tng nhanh ca n cng trong nhng nm ti.
Kh nng thanh ton v kh nng thanh khon ca n cng vn trong ngng an ton, tuy
nhin bc tranh v m ca Vit Nam ang xu nhanh hn d kin: Tc tng trng kinh t
ang chm li; Thm ht cn cn vng lai tng vt ln xp x 10% GDP ng thi ko theo s
mt gi lin tip ca ng ni t; Thm ht ngn sch ko di v cung tin trong nc tng mnh
khin vng xoy tng gi kh kim sot; Lm pht v li sut tri phiu Chnh ph ca Vit Nam
hin vt 11%/nm mt du hiu thng xy ra cc nc trc khi c khng hong n.
Trin vng kinh t Vit Nam trong con mt ca cc nh u t quc t xu i rt nhiu khi
lin tip b h bc xp hng tn nhim. n lc Vit Nam cn gc li tham vng tng trng
cao trc mt gii quyt nhng bt n ni ti.
nh gi ri ro n cng di gc ngun thu, trung bnh trong thp k qua, tng thu
ngn sch t cc khon thu t thu v ph chim khong 21,5% GDP, cao hn rt nhiu so vi
cc nc khc trong khu vc. Nh vy, ngoi vic chu thu lm pht hng nm hn 10%,
nhng chnh sch bo h v thu chng ln thu ang khin mi ngi dn Vit Nam gnh chu
t l thu/thu nhp cao gp t 1,4 n 3 ln so vi nhiu nc chu khc. Thm vo , thu
ngn sch ca Vit Nam ph thuc nhiu vo cc ngun thu t vic bn ti sn, bn ti nguyn
v thu lin quan n hot ng thng mi quc t. y l nhng ngun thu km bn vng v
6

Tm tt bo co
c nguy c suy gim trong nhng nm ti khi ngun ti nguyn v ti sn thuc s hu nh nc
dn cn kit, v khi Vit Nam phi thc hin cc cam kt khi gia nhp WTO.
So vi n cng trong nc th n cng nc ngoi ca Vit Nam c ri ro li sut kh
thp do gn 85% n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph c mc li sut u i di 3%. Tuy nhin, cng
vi vic tr thnh nc c mc thu nhp trung bnh, vic nn kinh t ang bc l nhng ri ro
ngy cng r nt s khin cho Vit Nam kh c th tip tc thu ht c nhng khon n vi li
sut thp trong thi gian ti.
Mt kha cnh ri ro quan trng ca n cng lin quan n nhng bin ng ca t gi.
S yu i lin tc ca ng VND khin cc khon vay bng ngoi t tng ln v quy m nu tnh
theo ng ni t. Tuy nhin, c mt thc t l tnh theo gi tr thc, gi tr cc khon n ny li
gim v lm pht trong giai on 2002-2010 ca Vit Nam ln ti 110%. iu ny hm rng,
gnh nng n ca Chnh ph ang c san s sang ngi dn thng qua thu lm pht.
Vi nhng gi nh hp l v lm pht, tng trng kinh t, s mt gi ca ng ni t,
kch bn tiu chun trong m hnh d bo n cng cho thy nhiu kh nng n cng Vit Nam s
tm chng li trong nm 2011 do lm pht tng mnh. Tuy nhin, nhng nm tip theo t l n
cng s tng dn u v t mc 62% GDP vo nm 2015, v 78% GDP vo nm 2020. Kch
bn ny i hi Chnh ph phi a dn thm ht ngn sch tng th t 7,7% trong nm 2009
xung cn 4,3% nm 2011, 3,1% trong nm 2015 v 2,8% GDP trong nm 2020.
Bt c chng trnh chi tiu thi qu no hoc gy thm ht ngn sch v do vy l n
cng tng nhanh hn kch bn tiu chun, hoc s gy lm pht cao v ni t mt gi mnh.
Trong iu kin tng thu mc cao v c yu t km bn vng, nhng n lc hn ch thm
ht ngn sch i hi Chnh ph Vit Nam phi thc hin cc chng trnh ct gim chi tiu
cng quyt lit v mt nh hng lu di.

Phn tch cu trc thm ht cn cn thng mi Vit Nam Trung Quc

Trong nhng nm gn y, thm ht cn cn thng mi l vn ni cm nht trong
quan h thng mi ca Vit Nam vi Trung Quc. Do , mc tiu ca Chng 7 l m s v
phn tch c h thng cu trc thm ht thng mi Vit Nam-Trung Quc.
Trn c s so snh thm ht thng mi ca Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc ng
Nam vi Trung Quc, c bit thng qua phng php phn tch t l thm nhp ca hng ha
7

NN KINH T TRC NG BA NG
Trung Quc trn th trng ni a Vit Nam, nghin cu trong Chng nyvch ra nhng
nguyn nhn dn n mt cn bng cn cn thng mi gia hai nc. Kt qu cho thy mc
thm nhp ca Trung Quc ngy cng tng trong a s cc sn phm t my mc thit b n
hng tiu dng. c bit, cc ngnh sn xut Trung Quc thm nhp nhiu nht vo th trng
Vit Nam hin nay u tp trung vo mt s lnh vc: in lc, du kh, c kh, luyn kim, khai
khong, ha cht - nhng ngnh cng nghip thng ngun hin ang c nhiu d n EPC vi
qui m ln do Trung Quc thng thu m nhn, vi ch u t u l cc tp on kinh t tr
ct ca nn kinh t Vit Nam. D c nhng quan im cho rng, nhp khu cng ngh, thit b l
nhm ti k vng nng cao gi tr gia tng trong tng lai, thc t cho thy, nhp siu t nc
lng ging ang ngy cng chim t trng qu ln trong tng nhp siu ca Vit Nam, m gi tr
lan ta v cng ngh cng nh v x hi khng cao nh k vng.

Th trng lao ng: qua lng knh ca khu vc kinh t phi chnh thc
Chng ny a ra nh gi ton din v s nng ng ca th trng lao ng Vit
Nam trong bi cnh ca cuc khng hong ton cu, vi trng tm l khu vc kinh t v vic
lm phi chnh thc. Da trn kt ca ca nhng cuc iu tra ln gn y, cc phn tch cho thy
tc ng ca cuc khng hong n Vit Nam gim nh nh vo s linh hot ca th trng
lao ng. T l tht nghip duy tr mc tng i thp thuc v kt cu. c s ci thin
chung ng k v iu kin lm vic cng vi s gia tng ng k ca mc thu nhp bnh qun.
Mc d v mt tng th khng c tc ng nh hng n cc cu trc chnh, trn th
trng lao ng din ra mt s iu chnh trong thi k suy gim kinh t thng qua: gim thi
gian lm vic, gia tng tnh trng thiu vic lm v m rng quy m ca khu vc kinh t phi
chnh thc (KTPCT). Nhng iu kin bt li cng thc y s tham gia vo th trng lao
ng vi biu hin l t l tham gia hot ng tng ln i vi cc nhm lao ng tr v cao
tui. T l tham gia nhiu hot ng cng tng ln do ngi lao ng phi tm nhng ngun thu
nhp b sung.
S linh hot y n tng ca lao ng gi vai tr ht sc quan trng thm thu c
sc cp v m. Tuy vy, cp c nhn, cc lao ng v h gia nh chu nh hng
phi gnh ton b tc ng tiu cc ca cuc khng hong. V mt tng th, vic lm trong khu
vc KTPCT v vic lm phi chnh thc ni chung hin vn l b phn c t trng ln trong lc
lng lao ng, c trng bi iu kin lao ng ti tn. Mc d v bn cht c tnh linh hot,
8

Tm tt bo co
khu vc KTPCT r rng chu nhiu nh hng ca tnh trng kinh t kh khn nm 2008 v
2009. c bit l thnh ph H Ch Minh, ni c khuynh hng suy gim th hin r rt vi
nhng h qu bt li tc ng ln phc li v tnh trng ngho ca h gia nh, v iu ny cng
cho thy s cn thit xem xt nhng bi cnh a phng a dng.
V mt chnh sch, vn cn c lu tm hn c l tnh trng ngho ang dn thay
i din mo, chuyn t c trng ch yu thin v khu vc nng thn v nng nghip sang
ngho khu vc KTPCT thnh th. Cn ban hnh cc chnh sch khuyn khch to iu kin
thun li cho qu trnh chuyn i ca cc h SXKD t phi chnh thc sang chnh thc.Cc th
ch ch ti chnh vi m cn c tng cng mnh m hn nh cc nc ang pht trin khc.
Thm vo , cn quan tm thm n cc chnh sch h tr tip cn th trng, c bit l thng
qua vic cung cp thng tin th trng. Cng cn xy dng cc chng trnh o to c thit
k c th, ph hp vi nhng iu kin ca khu vc KTPCT nhm gp phn tng mc sinh li
v k nng. ng thi, cn thc hin cc chnh sch bo v ngun nhn lc nhm hn ch tnh
cht tm thi v d b tn thng ca lao ng trong khu vc KTPCT.