Nhng Vn Ti Chnh - Ngn Hng Hin i

S chuyn dch t gi hi oi vo cc mc gi ti VN
PGS.TS. Nguyn Th Ngc Trang & ThS. Lc Vn Cng

c ng ca nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi n cc ch s gi trong nc gi chung l s chuyn dch t gi hi oi. Bi nghin cu ny cung cp bng chng v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi vo cc mc gi VN trong di hn thng qua vic s dng phng php ng lin kt Johansen, m hnh vc t iu chnh sai s v m hnh vc t t hi quy. Trong tp trung vo s chuyn dch bt cn xng t t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy rng trong di hn, s chuyn dch l hon ton.iu ny c ngha l khi t gi tng 1% (ng ni t mt gi 1%) th gi nhp khu tng 1%. Chng ti cng tm ra c bng chng cho thy s chuyn dch vo ch s gi nhp khu l ln nht, sau n ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng. Bi nghin cu cng pht hin khng c s chuyn dch bt cn xng (s chuyn dch l nh nhau) vo gi nhp khu trong trng hp thay i t gi hi oi ln so vi thay i t gi hi oi nh. T kha: S chuyn dch t gi hi oi, ch s gi nhp khu, ch s gi sn xut, ch s gi tiu dng, ng lin kt Johansen, m hnh vc t iu chnh sai s, m hnh vc t t hi quy.
1. Gii thiu

i hc Kinh t TP.HCM

Lm pht VN khng ch l ni lo lng ko di hng bao thp k i vi ngi dn m cn l vn gy au u i vi chnh ph ni chung v NHNN ni ring. Gn cui nm mi lo ny li cng tng ln khi gi c hng ha vo thi im ny tng mnh. Lm pht cng i i vi thut ng ng tin mt gi. Vy, s mt gi ca ng ni t so vi ngoi t tc ng nh th no n lm pht? Hiu v gii quyt vn ny mang ngha v cng quan trng i vi NHNN trong iu hnh chnh sch tin t v to k vng hp l cho ngi dn. y l nhn t ng gp phn ln vo qu trnh kim sot lm pht. S chuyn dch t gi hi oi l mt thut ng ni chung c s dng miu t tc ng ca

nhng thay i t gi hi oi n mt trong nhng: (1) gi nhp khu v gi xut khu, (2) gi tiu dng, (3) u t, v (4) khi lng giao dch thng mi (trade volumes) (Darvas, 2001). T nhng nm 1970, cc nh kinh t hc nghin cu tc ng ca nhng bin ng t gi hi oi n gi c trong nc. Cho n nay, c mt s lng ln cc cng trnh l thuyt cng nh thc nghim nghin cu v vn ny cc quc gia, cc ngnh v sn phm khc nhau. Mc tiu ca bi vit l tr li cho hai cu hi sau: (1) S thay i trong t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc tc ng nh th no n ch s gi nhp khu, ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng? v (2) C tn ti s chuyn dch bt cn xng t t gi hi oi n gi nhp khu hay khng?

tr li nhng cu hi ny, chng ti s dng phng php ng lin kt Johansen, m hnh vc t iu chnh sai s v m hnh vc t t hi quy vi s liu t Qu 1/2001 n Qu 4/2011. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy rng trong di hn, s chuyn dch l hon ton.iu ny c ngha l khi t gi tng 1% (ng ni t mt gi 1%) th gi nhp khu tng 1%. Chng ti cng tm ra c bng chng cho thy s chuyn dch vo ch s gi nhp khu l ln nht, sau n ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng. Bi vit cng pht hin khng c s chuyn dch bt cn xng (s chuyn dch l nh nhau) vo gi nhp khu cho d l mc thay i t gi hi oi ln hay nh. Phn cn li ca bi nghin cu c trnh by nh sau. Phn k

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tip gii thiu tng quan cc nghin cu l thuyt v thc nghim v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi, phn 3 trnh by phng php nghin cu v d liu, phn 4 m t kt qu v phn 5 kt lun.
2. Tng quan cc nghin cu trc

Hu ht cc nghin cu thc nghim v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi u tp trung cc nc pht trin, c bit l M. Kho st ca Menon (1995) m t kt qu ca 43 nghin cu nh vy (Dobrynskaya & Levando, 2005). Cc nghin cu thc nghim v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi cc nc ang pht trin cng cho thy s chuyn dch t gi suy gim ng k t nhng nm 1990 nhng vn cao hn so vi s chuyn dch cc nc pht trin (Frankel, Parsley& Wei, 2005). Cc nghin cu v s chuyn dch bt cn xng chim mt phn nh trong cc nghin cu thc nghim v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi v d nh Pollard & Coughlin (2004), Wickremasinghe & Silvapulle (2004). VN, trong nhng nm gn y cng c mt s nghin cu v s chuyn dch t gi hi oi nh V Vn Minh (2009), Bch Th Phng Tho (2011), Trn Ngc Th & cng s (2012). Hu ht cc nghin cu ny u s dng phng php vc t t hi quy v m hnh vc t hiu chnh sai s. Kt qu khng c s khc bit ng k. Tuy nhin cha c nghin cu no trc y nghin cu xem s chuyn dch c bt cn xng hay khng.
3. M hnh nghin cu

3.1. Bin nghin cu v d liu

IMP: Ch s gi nhp khu, c tnh theo qu (2001Q1 = 100). c iu chnh theo ma bng phng php Census X12. Ngun d liu: Tng cc Thng k. PPI: Ch s gi sn xut, c tnh bng cch ly bnh qun hng qu ca 2 ch s gi bn sn phm ca ngi sn xut hng cng nghip v gi bn sn phm ca ngi sn xut hng nng, lm, thy sn (2001Q1 = 100) v c iu chnh theo ma bng phng php Census X12. Ngun d liu: Tng cc Thng k. CPI: Ch s gi tiu dng, c tnh theo qu (2001Q1 = 100) v c iu chnh theo ma bng phng php Census X12. Ngun d liu: Tng cc Thng k. GDP: Tng sn phm trong nc vi gi c nh 1994. GDP c iu chnh theo ma bng phng php Census X12. Ngun: Tng cc Thng k. NEER: T gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc a phng gia VN vi ng tin ca 18 i tc thng mi chnh gm Nht Bn (JPY), Singapore (SGD), Trung Quc (CNY), Hn Quc (KRW), Hoa K (USD), Thi Lan (THB), c (AUD), c (EURO), Malaysia (MYR), Php (EURO), Indonesia (IDR), Vng quc Anh (GBP), H Lan (EURO), Nga (RUB), Philippines (PHP), (EURO), B (EURO) v n (INR); Ngun d liu: Datastream. EPC: Chi ph sn xut ca nh xut khu nc ngoi, l bnh qun cc ch s gi sn xut ca nh sn xut nc ngoi vi trng s l t trng thng mi ca ca 18 i tc thng mi chnh ca VN. Ngun d liu: Datastream, OECD Statistics.

Tt c cc bin u c ly logarit c s t nhin. Chng ti thc hin theo 2 giai on. Trong mi giai on chng ti o lng vic chuyn dch v nh gi xem c bt cn xng hay khng. 3.2. Giai on chuyn dch th nht Giai on chuyn dch t gi u tin l s chuyn dch t t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu. Da theo m hnh ca Campa, Goldberg v Gonzalez Minguez (2005), bi nghin cu xem xt m hnh thc nghim nh sau: impt = 0 + 1 neert + 2 gdpt + 3 epct + t (3.1) Phng trnh (3.1) c bin i thnh m hnh iu chnh sai s: impt = 0 + + 2i gdpt-i + 1i impt-i 3i epct-i

+ 4i neert-i + ECMt-1 (3.2) Vi l ton t vi phn, ji l h s iu chnh ngn hn v ECMt l s hng sai s. 3.3. S chuyn dch bt cn xng Phng trnh c lng s chuyn dch bt cn xng vo gi nhp khu trng hp thay i t gi hi oi ln so vi thay i t gi hi oi nh c thc hin nh Wickremasinghe & Silvapulle (2004) v Pollard & Coughlin (2004). M hnh thc nghim: impt = 4+ 5 neert + 6 gdpt + 7 epct + 8 neerlt + t (3.3) impt = 9+ 10 neert + 11 gdpt + 12 epct + 13 neerst + t (3.4) Trong : neerl: Tng tch ly ca giai on thay i t gi ln neerl (neeri - neeri-1) Vi = 1, i vi

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Ineeri - neeri-1I >=2% v = 0 i vi Ineeri - neeri-1I < 2% neers: Tng tch ly ca giai on thay i t gi nh. neers * (neeri - neeri-1) Vi * = 1 i vi Ineeri - neeri-1I < 2% v * = 0 i vi cc trng hp khc. 3.4. Giai on chuyn dch th hai Giai on chuyn dch th 2 l s chuyn dch nhng thay i trong t gi v gi nhp khu vo gi ni a c xc nh bng cch c lng phng trnh phn ng y v phn tch phng sai da trn h thng VAR 5 bin ni sinh nh sau: xt = ( gdpt , neert , impt , ppit , cpit ) to ra cc c sc cu trc, chng ti s dng phn tch Cholesky vi ma trn , ma trn phng sai hip phng sai ca phn d VAR dng rt gn:

co gin chuyn dch t gi hi oi t c bng cng thc sau: PTt,t+j = Pt,t+j / t,t+j Vi Pt,t+j i din cho phn ng y ca s thay i gi c vi c sc NEER sau j qu v t,t+j l phn ng y tng ng ca s thay i NEER. co gin chuyn dch PTt,t+j cho thy phn ng tch ly ca s thay i gi c vi c sc

NEER sau j qu c tiu chun ha bi phn ng tng ng ca s thay i NEER.

4. Kt qu nghin cu

Vi i din cho c sc cu, l c sc t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc; i din cho c sc gi nhp khu; i din cho c sc gi sn xut v l c sc gi tiu dng. Cc kt qu tam gic bn di ca ma trn S ng rng mt s c sc cu trc khng c tc ng ng thi n mt s bin ni sinh cn c vo vic sp xp th t cc bin ni sinh.

Phng php Phillips Perron (PP) c s dng kim nh tnh dng cho cc bin. Kt qu kim nh cho thy cc bin gdp, neer, epc, neerl, neers, imp, ppi v cpi khng dng chui gc nhng dng chui sai phn bc mt (Bng 4.1). 4.1. Kt qu c lng giai on chuyn dch th nht Chng ti thc hin kim nh ng lin kt Johansen vi tr c chn l 3 qu theo cc tiu chun la chn tr FPE, AIC v gi nh xu hng quyt nh

Bng 4.1: Kim nh nghim n v theo tiu chun PP Bin gdp gdp Kt lun imp imp Kt lun PP -1,954 -8,388* I(1) -1,378 -4,242* I(1) Bin neer neer Kt lun ppi ppi Kt lun PP -0,258 -6,114* I(1) -0,858 -2,973** I(1) Bin epc epc Kt lun cpi cpi Kt lun PP -2,952 -5,410* I(1) -1,467 -4,122* I(1) Bin neers neers Kt lun neerl neerl Kt lun PP -2,350 -4,449* I(1) -0,453 -5,305* I(1)

Ghi ch: Kim nh tnh dng chui gc c tnh n h s chn v xu hng. Kim nh tnh dng chui sai phn bc mt ch tnh n h s chn. (*) i din cho mc ngha 1%, (**) i din cho mc ngha 5%.
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Bng 4.2: Kim nh ng lin kt: tr (sai phn bc nht): 1 - 3 Kim nh Trace Mi quan h ng lin kt Khng* Ti a 1 Ti a 2 Tr ring (Eigen Value) 0,716 0,430 0,197 Thng k Trace 86,55 36,13 13,65 Gi tr ti hn 5% 63,88 42,92 25,87 Kim nh Max-Eigen Thng k Max-Eigen 50,42 22,48 8,78 Gi tr ti hn 5% 32,12 25,82 19,39

Ghi ch: Kim nh Trace cho thy c 1 mi quan h ng lin kt mc 5%. Kim nh Max-Eigen cho thy c 1 mi quan h ng lin kt mc 5%

c chn l 4. Kt qu kim nh trace v kim nh tr ring ti a cho thy c mt mi quan h ng lin kt trong di hn vi mc ngha 5% (Bng 4.2). Sau chng ti tip tc c lng phng trnh (3.2) v mi quan h cn bng di hn v s iu chnh ngn hn bng m hnh VECM. tr c la
Bin epct neert gdpt ecmt-1 R-squared Adjusted R-squared Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-stat) H s 2,065 1,44 0,234 -0,4735

ng ARCH v khng c s tng quan chui trong m hnh (Bng 4.4). Cc kt qu cho thy m hnh l ph hp phn tch. Theo h s ng lin kt trong di hn, ln truyn dn t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu l 144% - mt s chuyn dch t gi hi oi hon ton trong di hn. Kt qu ny
lch chun 0,193 0,220 0,636 0,0699 0,866 0,814 1,815 0,000 Thng k t 10,70 6,554 0,367 -6,77

Bng 4.3: H s cn bng di hn

chn l 3 qu tng t nh tr c la chn trong c lng ng lin kt. Kt qu kim nh hin tng d phng sai (ARCH) v s tng quan chui ca m hnh VECM cho thy khng c tc

tng t nh kt qu nghin cu ca Trn Ngc Th & cng s (2012) cho thy s chuyn dch hon ton t t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu sau 5 qu. Kt qu nghin cu ca V Vn Minh (2009) cng cho thy s chuyn

Bng 4.4: Kim nh hin tng d phng sai v tng quan chui Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test F-Stat Obs*R-squared F-Stat Obs*R-squared 0,573 2,575 0,808 2,534 Prob. F(3,20) Prob. Chi-Square(3) Prob. F(3,33) Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0,6377 0,4618 0,4982 0,4693

Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH

dch hon ton t t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu sau 6 thng. Trong khi , kt qu nghin cu ca Bch Th Phng Tho (2011) cho thy s chuyn dch mt phn t t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu vi mc cao nht l 77% sau 5 qu. S chuyn dch hon ton vo gi nhp khu cho thy v mt vi m, do c tnh t nhin ca sn phm, ca ngnh th trng VN, cc nh xut khu nc ngoi khng phi i mt vi p lc cnh tranh ln v c sc mnh th trng ng k nn h c th duy tr mc tiu li nhun ca h, duy tr phn n li nhun ca h v y ton b nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi v chi ph sn xut cho ngi mua. Kt qu cng cho thy chi ph sn xut nc ngoi cng c chuyn dch hon ton vo gi nhp khu trong di hn. H s iu chnh sai s c ln l 0.4735, mang du m v c ngha thng k mc 1% cho thy tc iu chnh v mc cn bng l 47.35% mt qu. 4.2. Kt qu c lng s chuyn dch bt cn xng vo gi nhp khu Cc phng trnh (3.3), (3.4) c c lng bng cch s dng phng php ng lin kt Johansen. Trong phng trnh (3.3) 5 + 8 l h s chuyn dch di hn ng vi nhng thay i t gi ln v 5 l h s chuyn dch di hn ng vi nhng thay i t gi nh. Trong phng trnh (3.4) 10 + 13 l h s chuyn dch di hn ng vi nhng thay i t gi nh, 10 l h s chuyn dch di hn ng vi nhng thay i t gi ln. Kt qu kim nh ng lin kt Johansen cho thy 3 mi quan h ng lin kt trong di

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Bng 4.5: Kim nh ng lin kt: tr (sai phn bc 1): 1 - 3 Kim nh Trace Mi quan h ng lin kt gi nh Khng* Ti a 1* Ti a 2* Ti a 3 Tr ring (Eigen Value) 0,890 0,737 0,487 0,370 Thng k Trace 187,245 101,050 48,867 22,843 Gi tr ti hn 5% 88,804 63,876 42,915 25,87 Kim nh Max-Eigen Thng k Max-Eigen 86,195 52,183 26,024 18,030 Gi tr ti hn 5% 38,331 32,118 25,823 19,387

Ghi ch: Kim nh Trace cho thy c 3 mi quan h ng lin kt mc 5%. Kim nh Max-Eigen cho thy c 3 mi quan h ng lin kt mc 5%
Bng 4.6: Kt qu c lng phng trnh 3.3 h s cn bng di hn Bin gdpt epct neert neerlt ecmt-1 H s -1,320 2,50 1,114 -0,172 -0,4445 lch chun 0,553 0,157 0,202 0,141 0,226 Thng k t -2,390 15,884 5,508 -1,220 -1,966

Bng 4.7: Kt qu c lng phng trnh 3.4 h s cn bng di hn Bin gdpt epct neert neerst ecmt-1 H s -1,320 2,50 0,942 0,172 -0,4445 lch chun 0,553 0,157 0,138 0,141 0,226 Thng k t -2,390 15,884 6,792 1,219 -1,966

Bng 4.8: Kim nh hin tng d phng sai v tng quan chui Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test F-Stat Obs*R-squared F-Stat Obs*R-squared 0.825 4.496 0.299 0.981 Prob. F(3,20) Prob. Chi-Square(3) Prob. F(3,33) Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.496 0.213 0.826 0.806

Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH

Bng 4.9: Kim nh LR cho h s chuyn dch bt cn xng Gi thit H0 8 = 0 13 = 0 Chi-square(1) 0,357 0,357 Probability 0,550 0,550

hn cho c 2 phng trnh (Bng 4.5). Gi nh v xu hng mang tnh quyt nh c la chn l 4. Cc tiu chun la chn tr LR, FPE, AIC v HQ cho kt qu

tr l 3 qu. V mc tiu ca nghin cu ny tp trung xem xt mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v gi nhp khu nn chng ti la chn 1

mi quan h ng lin kt c lng m hnh VECM. Kt qu c lng phng trnh 3.3 c trnh by Bng 4.6 Kt qu kim nh hin tng d phng sai (ARCH) v s tng quan chui ca m hnh VEC cho thy khng c tc ng ARCH v khng c s tng quan chui trong m hnh (Bng 4.8) Kt qu c lng phng trnh (3.3) cho thy h s chuyn dch di hn cho nhng thay i ln l 94,2%. H s chuyn dch di hn cho nhng thay i nh l 111,40%. Vic c lng phng trnh (3.4) cng cho thy kt qu tng t. Tuy nhin, c hai kt qu c lng h s cho cc bin neerl v neers u khng c ngha thng k. Mt s kim tra k hn v du ca h s 2 phng trnh (3.3) v (3.4) cho thy rng c s chuyn dch ln hn khi c s thay i nh so vi khi c s thay i ln trong t gi hi oi. Du ca neerl v neers l m v dng cho thy rng c s bt cn xng trong s chuyn dch ca nhng thay i ln v thay i nh trong t gi hi oi vo gi nhp khu. iu ny cho thy rng s chuyn dch ln trong giai on nhng thay i t gi hi oi nh v s chuyn dch nh trong nhng giai on thay i t gi ln. Chng ti tip tc thc hin kim nh h s chuyn dch bt cn xng trong di hn vi gi thit H0 cho phng trnh (3.3) l 8 = 0 (5 + 8 = 5) v gi thit H0 cho phng trnh (3.4) l 13 = 0 (10 + 13 = 10). Kim nh likelihood ratio cho thy khng loi b gi thit H0. iu ny cho thy rng khng c s chuyn

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Hnh 4.1: Kt qu kim nh s n nh ca m hnh VAR (AR Roots)
Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5

Hnh 4.2: Kt qu chun ha c sc t gi hi oi

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Hnh 4.3: Kt qu phn tch phng sai

dch bt cn xng trong di hn i vi s thay i t gi ln v s thay i t gi hi oi nh. 4.3. Kt qu c lng giai on chuyn dch th 2 c lng giai on chuyn dch th hai, chng ti thc hin m hnh VAR quy (recursive VAR) vi phng php phn tch phng sai Cholesky, cc bin c s dng l cc bin sai phn bc nht m bo tnh dng ca cc bin. tr ti u cho m hnh c la chn l 2 qu theo cc tiu chun la chn tr LR, FPE, AIC v HQ. Kim nh AR Roots cho thy khng c nghim no nm ngoi vng trn n v. iu ny chng t m hnh VAR l n nh. xem xt s chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha hiu lc v gi nhp khu vo gi sn xut v gi tiu dng, chng ti thc hin phn tch phn ng y v chun ha c sc t gi hi oi. Kt qu phn tch phn ng y cho thy s chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha n ch s gi nhp khu l hon ton t qu th 2 sau c sc ban u.

S chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha v gi nhp khu vo gi sn xut l hon ton t qu th 2 tr i sau c sc ban u. Kt qu c lng cng cho thy ln chuyn dch vo gi nhp khu l ln nht, sau l gi sn xut v cui cng l gi tiu dng. Kt qu c lng ph hp vi cc nghin cu thc nghim cho thy rng gi nhp khu nhy vi nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi hn gi sn xut v gi tiu dng ni chung (Obstfeld v Rogoff, 2000). S chuyn dch ln nht vo gi nhp khu khong 3 qu sau c sc u tin v gim dn t qu th 4 tr i.

Hnh 4.3 trnh by kt qu phn tch phng sai cho cc bin t gi hi oi danh ngha hiu lc, ch s gi nhp khu, ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng vi khong thi gian 8 qu xem xt mc quan trng ca cc bin trong vic gii thch bin ng ca ch s gi tiu dng. Kt qu phn tch phng sai cho thy tc ng ca cc bin n ch s gi tiu dng. T qu th 2 tr i, cc bin tc ng n gi tiu dng tng i n nh. Trong , ch s gi sn xut tc ng n ch s gi tiu dng ln nht 36%-38%. Tc ng ca ch s gi nhp khu n ch s gi tiu dng mc thp, khong

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3.4-3.8%. iu ny ph hp vi VN v theo thng k, hng t liu sn xut chim 90% tng lng nhp khu VN t nm 1999 n 2010 (Trn Ngc Th & cng s (2012)). Kt qu cng ph hp vi nghin cu ca Trn Ngc Th v cng s (2012) v Bch Th Phng Tho (2011) cho thy phng sai ca ch s gi tiu dng b nh hng mnh nht bi c sc chnh sch tin t (cung tin), c sc gi sn xut v c sc gi tiu dng.
5. Kt lun

Trong bi vit ny, chng ti kho st tc ng chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc n ch s gi nhp khu, ch s gi sn xut v ch s gi tiu dng VN. Chng ti cng xem xt tc ng bt cn xng ca t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc n ch s gi nhp khu. Kt qu kim nh giai on 1 ca s chuyn dch t gi cho thy s chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc n ch s gi sn xut l hon ton trong di hn. Kt qu c lng cng cho thy tc ng ca chi ph sn xut ca nh xut khu nc ngoi cng c chuyn dch hon ton vo ch s gi nhp khu trong di hn. Bi vit cng pht hin rng khng c s chuyn dch bt cn xng t t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc n ch s gi nhp khu khi c s bin ng ln v bin ng nh trong t gi hi oi. Kt qu kim nh giai on 2 ca s chuyn dch t gi cho thy s chuyn dch t t gi hi oi danh ngha c hiu lc n ch s gi nhp khu l ln nht, sau n ch s gi sn xut v cui cng l ch s gi tiu dng.

Phn tch phng sai cho thy ch s gi sn xut tc ng n ch s gi tiu dng ln nht (36% 38%). Kt qu trn y l ngun thng tin hu ch gip cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch tin t trong quyt nh iu hnh t gi v kim sot lm pht. Hn ch ca bi vit: Th nht, do s lng quan st t (khong 40 quan st cho mi bin) nn vng mnh ca kt qu vn cha cao. Th hai, nghin cu ch xem xt tc ng ca c sc t gi hi oi v tng sn lng quc dn n cc ch s gi trong nc. iu ny c ngha l c nhiu bin kinh t v m khc cha c a vo xem xt. Th ba, nghin cu xem xt s chuyn dch mc gi chung, cha xem xt s chuyn dch mc ngnh v mc sn phm l
TI LIU THAM KHO Bch Th Phng Tho (2011), Truyn dn t gi hi oi vo cc ch s gi ti VN giai on 2001 2011, Lun vn thc s kinh t, Trng i Hc Kinh t TP.HCM. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S (2002), Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon? NBER Working Papers, No. 8934. [Online] Available at http://www.nber. org/papers/w8934.pdf?new_window=1 Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S v Gonzalez Minguez, Jose M (2005), Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area, Working Paper No. 11632, National Bureau of Economic Research. [Online] Available at http:// www.nber.org/papers/w11632.pdf?new_ window=1 Darvas, Zsolt (2001), Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Real Exchange Rate in EU Candidate Countries, National Bank of Hungary, Discussion paper 10/01, Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank. [Online] Available at http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/

EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion_ Paper_1/2001/2001_07_19_dkp_10.pdf?__ blob=publicationFile. Dobrynskaya, Viktoria V & Levando, Dmitry V (2005), A Study of Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect in Russia, [Online] Available at http://new.hse.ru/ sites/dobrynskaya/DocLib1/1/ICEF%20 Working%20paper.pdf Frankel, Jeffrey A; Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin (2005), Slow Pass-Through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries? Working Paper No. 11199, [Online] Available at http://www.nber. org/papers/w11199.pdf?new_window=1 Hyder, Zulfiqar v Shah, Sardar (2004), Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan, Working Papers No. 5 State Bank of Pakistan. [Online] Available at http://129.3.20.41/eps/mac/ papers/0510/0510020.pdf Menon, Jayant (1995), Exchange rate Pass-Through, Journal of Economic Surveys, Volume 9, Issue 2 (June 1995), 197-231. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff Kenneth (2000), The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?, National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15. [Online] Available at http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11059.pdf Pollard, Patricia S. & Coughlin, Cletus C (2004), Size Matters: Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through at the Industry Level, Working Paper 2003-029C, [Online] Available at http://research.stlouisfed.org/ wp/2003/2003-029.pdf Trn Ngc Th & cng s (2012), Nghin cu s tho v ph gi tin t v mt s khuyn ngh chnh sch cho VN, ti nghin cu khoa hc s CS-2011-14, i Hc Kinh T TP.HCM. V Vn Minh (2009), Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Its Implications for Inflation in Vietnam, Working Paper 0902. [Online] Available at http://www.vdf.org.vn/ workingpapers/vdfwp0902 Wickremasinghe, Guneratne Banda v Silvapulle, Param (2004), Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Manufactured Import Prices: the Case of Japan, [Online] Available at http://129.3.20.41/eps/it/ papers/0406/0406006.pdf

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