Qun l ri ro trong u t chng khon

By admin, on March 18th, 2011 (23/03/2011: Bi ny ti s sa v vit di ra dn; xin li bn c nu c nhng ch b ct hng) Cc thng k trn th gii u cho thy, v lu di, u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty c phn l hnh thc u t cho li nhun cao hn ng k so vi cc hnh thc u t khc nh vng bc, tin gi tit kim, tri phiu, bt ng sn. Tuy nhin, i km vi mc li nhun trung bnh cao hn , cng l mc ri ro cao hn. C rt nhiu nh u t, k c nhng qu u t ln hng t USD, khng nhng khng c li m cn b thua l nng, thm ch ph sn. Bi vy, vic qun l ri ro ngn nga thua l l vn v cng quan trng i vi cc nh u t c nhn cng nh t chc. y ti mun im qua cc yu t, loi hnh ri ro trong u t chng khon, v cc bin php hu hiu phng cc ri ro . Mt na cc yu t ri ro l n t bn trong, tc l do cc nh u t t to ra cho chnh mnh. Na cn li n t bn ngoi, tc l cc yu t nm ngoi tm kim sot ca cc nh u t.

Cc yu t ri ro t bn ngoi:
La o trn th trng: Chuyn la o xy ra hng ngy nh cm ba trn cc th trng chng khon th gii, nhiu dng khc nhau, v d nh: - Lm gi cc s liu ti chnh, nh bng cng ty - Che du khng cho cc nh u t bit cc ri ro hay cc tin xu - Rt rut cng ty - Tr Ponzi: ht tin ca cc nh u t mi tr cho cc nh u t c v mt phn t ti, ch doanh nghip khng to li nhun tht s - Lng on gi chng khon trn th trng - Giao dch ni gin - C mi kch ng cc nh u t mua bn bng cc tin n, phn tch rm, v.v. Trong tt c cc v la o nh vy, th ngi b thit hi l cc nh u t. Mt khi cc nh u t b la o mt tin, th rt t kh nng i li c s tin b mt .

Cch phng chng: - Trnh xa cc c phiu nh, t thng tin, t ngi quan tm, tr khi tip cn c vi cc gim c iu hnh ang tin cy ca cc cng ty . Cng nh, cng t thng tin, cng d b la o v lng on. - Khi c phiu ang gi l ca doanh nghip c du hiu la o, th loi n khi danh mc u t, kim tra li cn thn trc khi quyt nh c nn u t vo li c phiu khng. - Xy dng kh nng t phn tch v thu thp thng tin, t xc nh c gi tr ca cc c phiu, khi b cc c mi kch ng. Ri ro v hot ng ca doanh nghip: C nhng ri ro c th bt ng xy n vi cc doanh nghip, lm gim gi tr ca doanh nghip, khng d on trc c. V d nh thin tai xy ra Nht Bn, khng nhng ch gy thit hi cho ngi Nht, m cn gy thit hi cho cc doanh nghip nc ngoi c lin quan, c bit l cc cng ty bo him c bn bo him Nht. Cc cng ty nng lng ht nhn cng gim gi tr rt nhiu sau v tai nn nh my in nguyn t Nht, v c th gii hon li cc chng trnh in ht nhn. Mt cng ty (v d Yahoo) ang c th cnh tranh rt mnh trong lnh vc no , nhng n khi xut hin mt cng ty mi (v d Google) c kh nng cnh tranh mnh hn, th gi tr ca cng ty u cng b gim i, v.v. Cch phng chng: - a dng ha, nu c phiu ny b ri ro v doanh nghip th c c phiu khc b li - Chn la c phiu ca cch doanh nghip ang mnh v tng i t ri ro, loi khi danh mc u t nhng doanh nghip c nhiu nguy c suy yu hay ph sn (v d nh n qu nhiu m t l li nhun km, cng ngh li thi, v.v.). Ri ro bin ng gi th trng: - Th trng c phiu l irrational, v gi c phiu c th bin ng mnh trong ngn hn, nhiu khi ln cao hn nhiu ln so vi gi tr tht, v nhiu khi li ch cn bng mt phn nh so vi gi tr tht. Nu gi xung qu thp so vi gi tr tht, th d c mua c c phiu mc gi thp vn c th b l tm thi. Cch phng chng: - C tm nhn u t di hn, c th chp nhn l tm thi khi cc bin ng bt li v gi trong ngn hn xy ra, min sao k vng li nhun v di hn l tt.

- Cash is king: Khng tham lam dng n by cao, s d b bt ra khi th trng khi c bin ng ngn hn bt li, d l phn xt v di hn c ng n u. Ngc li, c tin mt d tr (hay l ngun thu nhp u n c th dng u t thm), mi khi gi ca c phiu tt i xung trong ngn hn th l c hi mua vo. T l c th nn gi bao nhiu % ti khon l tin mt c cho bi nh l cash is king (m ti c vit trong 1 bi khc) - C th kt hp s dng cc chng khon phi sinh lm hedging, lm gim bt volatility ca danh mc u t, tng n nh ngn hn. - Vic a dng ha gp phn lm gim ri ro bin ng gi th trng. Cng c c correlation thp gia cc chng khon ang gi th cng gim c ri ro bin ng gi ngn hn.(Nu cc chng khon c correlation ln qu, th vic a dng ha t c cng dng). Ri ro v thanh khon: C nhng chng khon c thanh khon thp, tc l mun mua/bn rt kh. Khi mi ln mua bn ni chung u b thit thi v gi. Cch phng chng: - Tr bt phn thit v gi do thanh khon km vo li nhun k vng, khi phn tch c nn u t hay khng - Tm nhn di hn, c th sn sng gi lu th ri ro thanh khon. - i vi cc u t ngn hn, th trnh ng vo cc chng khon c thanh khon km. Ri ro v chnh sch: Cc c quan chnh ph c th ban hnh nhiu loi chnh sch khc nhau nh hng trc tip n cc nh u t, v d nh: mc thu cho li nhun t u t, cc qui nh v vic c mua bn nhng g hay khng c mua bn nhng g, c c gi ngoi t hay chuyn tin ra nc ngoi khng, v.v.Cc chnh sch c th khin cho cc nh u t khng thc hin c cc chin lc u t m ng nh c th thc hin c. c bit l khi chnh sch t ngt thay i, th nh u t c th b mc kt cc u t, thm ch tr nn phm php nu khng kp thi thay i theo chnh sch. Ri ro v thng tin: - Thiu thng tin ng tin cy, c bit l i vi cc c phiu nh, c th da vo phn tch gi tr c phiu v phn tch bin ng gi.

- Vn thng tin bt i xng: C mt s tay trong nm c thng tin tt hn v sm hn, mua bn da trn cc thng tin , cn nhng ngi khc khng h nhn c thng tin, hoc ch nhn c khi mun. Cch phng chng: - Tng t nh i vi ri ro la o, trnh cc c phiu no m thiu thng tin ng tin cy, c bit l cc c phiu nh, m m. - Dnh cng sc, thi gian v tin chi ph mt cch thch ng cho vic thu thp thng tin.

Cc yu t ri ro t bn trong:
Ri ro v kh nng qun l: Vic qun l danh mc u t ni chng, v qun l ri ro ni ring, i hi nhiu sc lc, kin thc, kinh nghim, v.v. C rt nhiu vic phi lm trong u t: thu thp thng tin, phn tch u t, quyt nh u t, theo di v x l cc u t, v.v. Mt ngi ring l c th khng kh nng lm tt c nhng vic mt cch c hiu qu, d dn n nhiu sai lm gy thit hi ng thi b l nhiu c hi u t tt. Cch phng chng: - Cn c nhng ngi ng tin cy gip trong qun l u t. - u t c t chc: mt t chc u t, c phn cng cng vic, s hiu qu hn nhiu so vi mt c nhn t lm mi th. - Nu khng phi l thnh vin ca mt t chc u t, hay l c nhng ngi c trnh v ng tin tng gip , th tt nht l khng nn t u t, m gi tin cho mt qu no ng tin. - Hc cc kin thc v ti chnh v u t. Cng hiu bit nhiu v ti chnh cng thun li. Ri ro v c lng sai gi tr: - Vic c lng gi tr tht ca c phiu khng n gin, v nhng ngi khc nhau c th cho cc c lng chnh nhau n vi ln, trong c nhng ngi qu lc quan v ngi qu bi quan. - Nu lc quan qu, c lng gi tr cao qu so vi gi tr tht, th c th s thnh mua c phiu hn so vi gi tr tht, v nu sau gi c phiu gim v gi tr tht th thua l.

Cch phng chng: - m an ton v gi tr: Ch u t khi m gi tr trng thp hn rt ng k (v d ch bng 1/2) so vi c lng gi tr tht. - Cn tch ly kinh nghim phn tch, hoc da trn s tham mu ca nhng ngi no ng tin cy trong vic phn tch. - Phn tch cn da trn cc m hnh hp l v cc ngun tin ng tin cy. - i vi cc ng c vin mi cho danh mc u t: cn c thi gian phn tch (t ra 1 thng), c th hiu r cc cng ty v gi tr ca chng trc khi u t, khng vi vng nhy vo mua nhiu khi cha bit r cc lt lo bn trong. Ri ro v l qu mc chp nhn c: Nh u t c th b l qu mc chp nhn c trn th trng chng khon. V d nh u t c 2 t VND, nhng trong 1 t phi dnh vo 1 vic no khng th b mt, nu em 2 t i u t m b mt 1,2 t, th l mt qu mc chp nhn c. Cch phng chng: - Khng u t mo him cc khon tin khng th mt (m u t chng khon l u t mo him). - Tnh Value-at-risk v downside risk bit s tin c th b mt nu nhng tnh hung xu khng may xy ra, xem c chp nhn c khng. - Mc l chp nhn c cng thp, th value-at-risk phi cng thp, c ngha l cng phi chn nhng chng khon c mc ri ro thp cho danh mc u t v tng mc tin mt d tr. Ri ro v tm l v thc hin: Nh u t c th b kch ng, mua lc ng nh khng nn mua, bn lc ng nh khng nn bn, mua bn qu nhiu nh con bc kht nc, v.v. u t cng nh l o cy gia ng, nu c nghe theo ht ngi ny n ngi khc, th khng o thnh ci g c. Trong lc thc hin u t cng c th c nhiu sai phm (t lnh nhm, tnh ton sai, v.v.) Cch phng chng:

- Xy dng trc cc tnh hung c th xy ra, v tnh trc l nu gp tnh hung no th x l th no, khi hoang mang th ng - K lut trong u t: c chin lc v qui trnh r rng, v tun th theo n, khng u t theo cm tnh, theo tham lam hay s hi. - C kim sot: cn c ngi kim sot (nu mt mnh u t th khng c ai kim sot, lm by cng khng ai ngn chn, d xy ra cc hnh ng in r gy thit hi) - Bit mnh ang lm g, tin tng vo vic mnh lm, khng ngi ngoi kch ng. - Nhng ngi phn tch u t phi gi c khch quan trong phn tch, khng b ci trng thi u t lm mt khch quan, tr nn wishful thinking. ( tng tnh khch quan, th ngi phn tch v ngi thc hin u t phi l 2 ngi khc nhau). Ri ro v chin lc: Ri ro v m hnh phn tch: Ri ro v chi ph cho u t:

Tng hp cc qui tc qun l ri ro S dng chng khon phi sinh qun l ri ro

Chng khon phi sinh l mt cng c rt hu hiu qun l ri ro trong u t. Nhng cn ch rng, nu dng khng ng cch, th khng nhng n khng lm gim ri ro, m tri li c th lm tng ri ro ln gp bi.

Stress Tests
Stress test c ngha l lm cc php th gi d trong cc tnh hung rt xu xy ra th ti khon s ra sao. V d nh mt nh bng cho vay th chp bt ng sn. Nu gi nh t gim 50% th sao, c gy thit hi n mc ph sn nh bng khng ? i vi danh mc u t: trong trng hp m th trng i xung 50% th sao ? 70% th sao ? Ti khon c th chu ng ni tnh hung xu n vt khng ?