KINH T LNG

ti : Quan h kinh t gia Dn s v Sn lng in ca

Vit Nam t 1990 2009

PHN M U
I. Kinh t lng v ng dng:
Kinh t lng l mt mn khoa hc ra i trong nhng nm
30 ca th k 20. S ra i ca kinh t lng lin quan n vic
pht trin rng ri nhng phng php v thng k c ng
dng nhiu n lnh vc kinh t.
Phng php kinh t lng c tin hnh theo trnh t
sau:Thit lp cc m hnh ton hc m t cc quan h kinh
t,c lng cc tham s nhm nhn c s o v mc nh
hng ca cc bin c lp khc nhau,kim nh cc gi thit,
d bo m phng cc hin tng kinh t. h tr khinh t
lng gii quyt nhanh chng hn nhng vn kinh t, nhiu
phn mm ng dng ra i m Eview l phn mm hng u
gii quyt tt nhng vn trn.Tiu lun ny l mt minh
chng xc ng.
II. Gii thiu m hnh:
minh chng cho s cn thit ca kinh t lng trong kinh t.
Ti quyt nh chn v phn tch bng m hnh hm hi quy hai
bin v : Quan h kinh t gia Dn s v Sn lng in
ca Vit Nam t 1990 2009.

V th v tm hm hi quy
mu qua Eviews
M hnh d kin :
_ Bin ph thuc : Sn lng in (Y triu kilowatt /gi)
_ Bin c lp : Dn s (X - triu ngi)
_ Bng s liu : (ly t ti liu thy cung cp qua mng)
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total

n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

66,02
67,24
68,45
69,64
70,82
72
73,16
74,31
75,46
76,6
77,63
78,62
79,54
80,47
81,44
82,39
83,31
84,22
85,12
86,02
1532,46

8790
9307
9818
10851
12693
14665
16962
19253
21694
23599
26682
30673
35888
40500
46202
52078
57917
64147
72100
80700
654519

580315,8
625802,68
672042,1
755663,64
898918,26
1055880
1240939,92
1430690,43
1637029,24
1807683,4
2071323,66
2411511,26
2854531,52
3259035
3762690,88
4290706,42
4825065,27
5402460,34
6137152
6941814
52661255,8

4358,6404
4521,2176
4685,4025
4849,7296
5015,4724
5184
5352,3856
5521,9761
5694,2116
5867,56
6026,4169
6181,1044
6326,6116
6475,4209
6632,4736
6788,1121
6940,5561
7093,0084
7245,4144
7399,4404
118159,1546

77264100
86620249
96393124
117744201
161112249
215062225
287709444
370678009
470629636
556912801
711929124
940832929
1287948544
1640250000
2134624804
2712118084
3354378889
4114837609
5198410000
6512490000
31047946021

1/ th :
T ca s Eview chn Quick ->Graph, xut hin Series List .
Ta g Danso trc v Sanluongdiensau .
T Graph Option ->Scatter -> khung Fit lines chn
Regression Line. Nhn OK th c dng sau :

2/ Tm hm hi quy mu : ( = +

T ca s Eview chn Quick ->Estimate Equation.

Trong khung Equation Estimate g Sanluongdien C Danso
(Sanluongdien l bin ph thuc ,C l bin hng , Danso l
bin c lp) . Mi bin cch nhau mt k t trng .

 Hm hi quy mu l : =
ngha cc h s hi quy :
= -228066,7 ;

= 3403,582

Nhn xt:
a/ X v Y ng bin ->
= = -228066,7 (khi X=0). Sn
lng in bnh qun ti thiu l -228066,7 triu kilowatt/gi.
b/ Dn s tng (gim) 1 triu ngi -> Sn lng in tng
(gim) 3403,582 triu kilowatt/gi

( )
(

( )
)

8,543.
RSS = TSS ESS =

R2 =

Kim nh cc h s hi quy
1/Phng php gi tr ti hn :
a/ Kim nh

:{

( )

( )

( )

( )
Tra bng suy ra :
| |
c ngha thng k
Ni cch khc bin X thc s c nh hng ln bin Y ,
ngha l dn s c nh hng ln sn lng in.

:{

b/ Kim nh

( )

( )

( )

( )

Tra bng suy ra

| |

2/ Phng php khong tin cy :

a/Kim nh

:{

K.T.C ( )
(

( );

( ))
)

=(3403,582
=

(2802,9061 ; 4004,2579)

V 0 khng thuc K.T.C

(2802,9061 ; 4004,2579)
c ngha thng k

Ni cch khc bin X thc s c nh hng ln bin Y ,

ngha l dn s c nh hng ln sn lng in

b/Kim nh

:{

K.T.C ( )
(

.
(

=(-228066,7
=

( );
)

.
(

( ))
)

(-274288,7 ; -181844,7)

V 0 khng thuc K.T.C

(
c ngha thng k

Ni cch khc bin X thc s c nh hng ln bin Y ,

ngha l dn s c nh hng ln sn lng in

3/ Phng php p-value :

a/ Kim nh

Cho = 0,05

( )

:{

P-value = P(| |

) = 0,000 < = 0,05

c ngha thng k

Ni cch khc bin X thc s c nh hng ln bin Y ,

ngha l dn s c nh hng ln sn lng in

b/ Kim nh

:{

Cho = 0,05

( )
P-value = P(| |

) = 0,000 < = 0,05

c ngha thng k

Ni cch khc bin X thc s c nh hng ln bin Y ,

ngha l dn s c nh hng ln sn lng in

Kim nh gi thit phng

sai ca nhiu
(Phng php khong tin cy)

{
= 0,05; / 2 = 0,025 ; 1- = 0,95
K.T.C 95% (

) =[
=[
=[
=[

(
(

(
)

= (34415600,89 ; 131823538,7)
khng thuc K.T.C (34415600,89 ; 131823538,7)

Kim nh gi thit
1/ Phng php gi tr ti hn :

{
(

(
)

Chn = 0,05
Tra bng F ta c :

)
(

, tha nhn kt lun

l c ngha

thng k
Ni cch khc , dn s ch gii thch c 88,73% s thay
i ca sn lng in ; 11,27% cn li l do cc yu t ngu
nhin gy ra

2/ Phng php P-value :

Kim nh gi thit

{
(

(
)

(
(

p-value = 0,0000 <=0.05

l c ngha thng k

)
)

, tha nhn kt lun

Ni cch khc , dn s ch gii thch c 88,73% s thay

i ca sn lng in ; 11,27% cn li l do cc yu t ngu
nhin gy ra.

D bo
=

X vi

1/ D bo gi tr trung bnh ca Y :

Var( )

[
(

= 112291,5

]
(

)[

0,0477.
Se( )

112291,5 2,101. (

( )

. se( )

(
)

(
(

)
)

. se( )
(

2/ D bo gi tr c bit ca Y :
Var(

[
(

Se(

112291,5 2,101. (

)[

.se(

)
)

]
)

112291,5+ 2,101. (

.se(

)
)

Kt lun
Da vo s liu kinh t t 1990 2009 (Vit Nam) , ta
thy dn s thc s c nh hng rt ln n sn lng in.

Kin ngh
Trong nn kinh t hin nay , in l ngun nng
lng cp thit cn cho mi hot ng sn xut kinh doanh
v sinh hot ca ngi dn. Nhu cu tiu th in ngy mt
tng m sn lng in li khng tng p ng kp
thi. Vic xc nh yu t nh hng ln sn lng in l
rt quan trng nhm a ra nhng gii php tng ngun
vn u t vo ngnh in hay gim nhng yu t tc ng
qu mc ln sn lng in.
Qua vic nghin cu s liu Dn s v Sn lng
in Vit Nam giai on 1990-2009 cho thy vic tng dn
s nh hng rt ln ti vic tng sn lng in c th:
S thay i dn s gii thch c 88,73% s bin ng
ca sn lng in, cn li 11,27% l do cc yu t khc.
Cc yu t khc tc ng nh: cng ngh sn xut in, b
my qun l, ngun vn u t,
Nhu cu in c d bo l tng cao trong thi gian ti,
trong khi nng lc sn xut c th tng chm nn c th l
gy ra tnh trng thiu in. Dn s gia tng th nhu cu s
dng in l rt ln. Do , cn phi thc hin nhng gii
php sau y:
Tng cng tuyn truyn v vn ng ngi dn thc
hin chnh sch k hoch ha gia nh hn ch vic tng
dn s qu mc.

 Cc doanh nghip, t chc c nhn thc hin vic tit

kim in, hn ch s dng in lng ph, thay cc thit b
in c k, ci tin h thng chiu sng.
Thc hin vic gi nc ti cc h Ha Bnh, Thc
B, Tuyn Quang, Pleikrng, Ialy, Tr An, Thc M v
Hm Thun. Bn cnh , huy ng ti a cc ngun nhit
in than, tua bin kh, nhit in du FO.
Tng cao sn lng in nh nng cao hiu qu sn
xut bng cch tng cng i mi thit b my mc, cng
ngh hin i, ci cch qun l, v thu ht cc ngun u
t vo ngnh in. Cc nh my nhit in bo m ti a
cng sut pht; c bit m bo tin , rt ngn thi gian
sa cha cc t my.