I HC QUC GIA TP.

H CH MINH
TRNG I HC BCH KHOA

BO CO BI TP LN XC SUT THNG K

GVHD: Thy Nguyn B Thi Lp: A10 - Nhm: 4

H v tn Trn Th Di Lun Trn Vn Long Trn Quang Phc Phng Th Trng Trn Thanh Sng Nguyn Vn Tin Nguyn Thanh Nhn Nguyn Hong Minh Qun MSSV 51001859 (Nhm trng) 21101926 21109028 20704569 21102891 41103573 40901779 50902135

TP.HCM , Ngy 21/11/2012

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Bi 1: Trong mt th nghim nghin cu ung th, 162 con chut c ghp khi u
v chia thnh 4 nhm. Mi nhm c chiu x vi cng khc nhau. Bng sau y cho kt qu th nghim. Mc 1 2 3 4 Kt qu 10 32 37 32 Ht khi u 32 9 2 8 Khng ht a) Vi mc = 1%, hy so snh t l cha khi ung th ca 4 nhm ni trn. b) Vi mc = 5%, hy so snh t l cha khi ung th ca 3 nhm 2,3 v 4.

Bi lm
Nhn xt : Gi thit Ho: y l bi ton kim nh gi thit v t l. T l cha khi ung th trong cc nhm l nh nhau. Thc hin bi ton bng Excel

a) Vi = 1%
Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh :

Tnh c c t ng : T ng hng:

chn F4 v nhp =SUM(B4:E4), d ng con tr ko n t t i n t n . T ng c t: chn B6 v nhp =SUM(B4:B5), d ng con tr ko n t t i n t B n E . T ng c ng: chn F8 v nhp =SUM(F4:F5). Tnh c c t n l thu t: H t kh i u : chn B12 v nhp =B6*$F$4/$F$8, d ng con tr ko n t t i n t B1 n E1 . Khng h t : chn B13 v nhp =B6*$F$5/$F$8, d ng con tr ko n t t i n t B1 n E1 . p d ng hm HT T: Chn B15 v nhp =CHITEST(B4:E5,B12:E13). Ta s c c kt qu ca P(X>X).

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Bin lun : Kt lun:

P(X>X) = 4,995e-12 < = 0,01. => Bc b gi thit Ho. T l cha khi ung th ca 4 nhm l khc nhau.

b) Vi = %
Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh :

Tnh c c t ng : T ng hng:

chn M4 v nhp =SUM(J4:L4), d ng con tr ko n t t i n t M n M5. T ng c t: chn J6 v nhp =SUM(J4:J5), d ng con tr ko n t t i n t J n L6. T ng c ng: chn M8 v nhp =SUM(M4:M5). Tnh c c t n l thu t: H t kh i u : chn J12 v nhp =J6*$M$4/$M$8, d ng con tr ko n t t i n t J1 n L12.
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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Khng h t : chn J13 v nhp =J6*$M$5/$F$8, d ng con tr ko n t t i n t J1 n L13. p d ng hm HT T: Chn J15 v nhp =CHITEST(J4:L5,J12:L13). Ta s c c kt qu ca P(X>X).

Bin lun :

Kt lun:

P(X>X) = 0,0810077 > = 0,05. => Chp nhn gi thit Ho. T l cha khi ung th ca 3 nhm 2,3,4 l nh nhau.

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Bi 2: Mt c quan kh tng tin hnh so snh nhit cao nht trong ngy ba
l c a Bc M, chu u v chu . Cc thnh ph ln trong mi l c a c chn ngu nhin v nhit cao nht trong ngy 1/7/1996 c ghi li nh sau (o bng Fahrenheit): Bc M: Chicago: 95 , Denver: 73 , Fairbanks: 73 , Kansas City : 96 Montreal: 70 , Miami: 87 , Pittsburgh : 85 , Seattle : 80 Chu u: Athens: 95 , Geneva : 72 , London : 77, Moscow : 86, Rome 88, Warsaw: 73 Chu : Bc kinh: 93, Jerusalem : 88, New Delhi: 94 , Tokyo : 77, Hongkong: 90 Hy so snh nhit trung bnh cao nht trong ngy ca ba chu l c ni trn. Mc ngha 5%

Bi lm
Nhn xt: y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t M c ch ca s phn tch phng sai mt yu t l nh gi s nh hng ca mt yu t(nhn to hay t nhin) no trn cc gi tr quan st. *Gi thit H0: 1= 2=k <=> Cc gi tr trung bnh bng nhau H1: 1 2 <=> C t nht hai gi tr trung bnh khc nhau *Gi tr thng k: F = *Bin lun : Nu F < F (k -1; N-k) => Chp nhn gi thit H0. Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh :

-Vo Data /Data analysis, chn Anova: Single Factor.

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Trn mn hnh s hin ln hp thoi ca Anova: Single Factor. Ta nhn cc thng s nh hnh bn di -Phm vi cc bin s Y(Input Range):ta ko chut t A3 ti C11 -Alpha: 0.05 -Group by: columns -Ta u ra (Output Range):kch chut vo A13

Ta c kt qu nh sau:

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Bin lun: Ta thy F = 0,880362 < F0,05 = F crit = 3.633723 Chp nhn gi thuyt H0 mc 5%

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Tnh t s tng quan ca Y i vi X, h s tng quan, h s xc nh ca tp s liu sau y. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun v mi tng quan gia X v Y (C phi tuyn khng? C tuyn tnh khng?). Tm ng hi quy ca Y i vi X. x 1,32 0,95 1,45 1,3 1,32 1,2 0,95 1,45 1,3 y 0,37 -0,70 0,55 0,35 0,3 0,32 -1,70 0,75 1,3

Bi 3:

Bi lm
Nhn xt : y l bi ton phn tch tng quan.

(i) Phn tch tng quan tuyn tnh.

Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh:

Thit lp bng Correlation. Vo Data /Data analysis , chn Correlation.

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-

Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Trong hp thoi Correlation ln lt n nh: Phm vi u vo: Input Range, qut vng (A3:B12). Cch nhm theo hang hay ct: Group By, chn Columns (nhm theo ct). Chn Labels in first row (nhn d liu hng u). Phm vi u ra: Output Range, chn D6.

Nhn OK, ta s c bng kt qu sau:

Ta tm c h s tng quan r = 0,84043. V h s xc nh r2 = 0,70632. * Gi thit Ho : X v Y khng c tng quan tuyn tnh. Ta c: M: T = 4,10307 vi c = 2,365.

r n2 1 r2
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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

(c l phn v mc / = 0.025 ca phn b Student vi n 2 = 7 bc t do). V |T| > c nn c c s bc b gi thit Ho. Vy: Kt lun c X v Y c tng quan tuyn tnh.

(ii) Phn tch tng quan phi tuyn. (iii) phn tich hi quy tuyn tnh .
Gi thit Ho : X v Y hi quy tuyn tnh. Vo Data /Data analysis, chn Regression.

Trong hp thoi Regression ln lt n nh: Phm vi u vo: Input Y Range, qut vng (B3:B12). Input X Range, qut vng (A3:A12). Chn Labels (thm nhn d liu). Phm vi u ra: Output Range, chn I3. Chn Line Fit Plots trong Residuals v ng hi quy.

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Sau nhn OK ta c kt qu :

Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Kt lun : ng hi quy ca Y i vi X l : Y=3,949351X-4,761189

X Line Fit Plot

2 1 0 1.32 0.95 1.45 -1 1.3 1.32 1.2 0.95 1.45 1.3

Y
Predicted Y

-2

Sai s tiu chun ca ng hi quy : 0,51 Ta thy: F = 16,8 > c = 5,59

(tra bng phn t Fisher vi bc t do (1,7) mc = 0,05) Vy: c hi quy tuyn tnh gia Y vi X.
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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Trn c s tp s liu sau y hy phn tch xem t l loi gii c ph thuc vo trng ph thng v ban hay khng vi = 0,05. y z l t l loi gii (%); f l trng ph thng s 1, 2, 3,4; g l ban (1 = ban A, 2 = Ban B)

Bi 4:

stt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

z 38 38 42 42 41 42 44 45

f 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

g 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2

stt 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

z 35 32 33 34 31 33 33 35

f 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4

g 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2

Bi lm
Nhn xt: y l bi ton phn tch phng sai hai yu t c lp S phn tch ny nhm nh gi s nh hng ca hai yu t trn cc gi tr quan st Yij(i=1, 2r: yu t A; j= 1 ,2c: yu t B). *Gi thit: H0: 1= 2=k <=> Cc gi tr trung bnh bng nhau H1: 1 2 <=> t nht hai gi tr trung bnh khc nhau *Gi tr thng k: FR = v FC = *Bin lun: Nu FR < F[b-1,(k-1)(b-1)] => chp nhn H0(yu t A) Nu FC < F[b-1,(k-1)(b-1)] => chp nhn H0(yu t B) Ta gi thit H01: yu t Ban khng nh hng n t l loi gii ca trng. Ta gi thit H02: yu t trng ph thng khng nh hng n t l loi gii ca trng . Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh:

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Vo Data /Data analysis,

Chn Anova: Two-Factor With Replication => s hin ln hp thoi Trn mn hnh s hin ln hp thoi ca Anova: Two-Factor With Replication Ta nhp vo cc thng s nh hnh bn di -Phm vi ca bin s Y(Input Range):ta ko chut t A3 ti E7 -Ta u ra (Output Range):kch chut vo G3

Ta c kt qu nh sau:

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Thy: Nguyn B Thi

Bin lun: Ta thy FR = 11,571429 > F0.05 = 5,317655 => Bc b gi thit H01 FC = 55,380952 > F0.05 =4,066181=> Bc b gi thit H02 Vy c 2 yu t Ban v trng ph thng u nh hng n t l loi gii ca cc trng.

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