Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 1)

y l ti liu c Nguyn Thanh Qu v L Trung Dng lc dch t cun "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" ca Steve Nison. LI GII THIU Bn c mun hc mt h thng k thut c cht lc qua hng trm nm s dng, nhng gn nh t c ph bin? Mt h thng kh linh hot, c th kt hp vi bt k cng c k thut no ca phng Ty? Mt h thng mang n cho bn s thch th khi s dng nh l sc mnh ca n? Nu mun, BIU K THUT HNH NN NHT BN l th bn cn. Bn c th thy c gi tr ca n trong vic cung cp cho bn nn tng ca phn tch k thut. S dng biu hnh nn Nht Bn s gip bn hon thin kh nng phn tch th trng. Tp trung chnh vo th trng M, nhng nhng cng c v k thut c th p dng cho bt k th trng no. Biu hnh nn c dng cho vic theo di, suy on v bo v trong hot ng u t. N cng c th c dng cho hng ha giao sau, hp ng quyn chn hay bt c u phn tch k thut c p dng. Khng cn phi bn khon, lo lng nu bn cha h nhn thy biu hnh nn. Nhng kin thc ny l mi vi bn. Thc ra, n cng l mi i vi nhiu ngi M v chu u. Nu bn l mt ngi phn tch k thut dy dn, bn s khm ph ra cch kt hp biu hnh nn vi cng c k thut khc ca bn c th to ra mt sc mnh tng hp ca k thut. Nhng phn kt hp biu hnh nn vi cng c k thut phng Ty s lm cho bn thch th. Nu bn l mt ngi phn tch k thut nghip d, bn s thy biu hnh nn hiu qu nh th no khi n l phng php phn tch biu c lp.

MT S THNG TIN CN THIT HIU VN Mt s bn c th c nghe n biu hnh nn. Nhiu ngi th cha. Thng mi hai nm 1989, Ti (Steve Nison) vit mt bi bo gii thiu v biu hnh nn, ngay lp tc thu ht c s quan tm. iu ny ha ra ti l mt trong s t nhng ngi M c hiu bit v k thut c t hng trm nm ca ngi Nht. Ti vit tip nhng bi bo, nhiu bui trnh by, dy hc v c phng vn trn truyn hnh v bo ch khp t nc. u nm 1990, Ti vit mt bi gii thiu ngn cho lun n Nh k thut Th trng ca ti v nhng biu hnh nn. N cha ng nhng ti liu rt c bn gii thiu, v n l thng tin cha ng trong nhng biu hnh nn M. Ti liu ny c nhiu ngi a thch. Trong vng vi thng, Merrill Lynch, nh xut bn nhn c hn 10.000 yu cu. TI HC BIU HNH NN NH TH NO? "Ti sao", chnh ti thng c hi "C mt h thng kin thc lu nh vy m gn nh khng c bit n phng Ty?". Ngi Nht c gng gi b mt? N l s thiu thng tin M? Ti khng bit cu tr li, nhng phi mt vi nm nghin cu tng hp tt c li vi nhau. Ti gp kh nhiu may mn. C l s kin nhn v kh nng cu may ca ti l s kt hp cn thit nhng ngi khc khng c. Nm 1987, ti quen bit mt nh mi gii ngi Nht. Mt ngy kia, trong khi ti v c y ang trong vn phng, c y ang xem mt trong s nhng cun sch v biu bng ting Nht ca c y. C y ku ln, "Nhn ny, mt ca s (a window)". Ti hi c y ang ni v ci g. C y ni rng ca s (a window) cng tng t nh mt khong trng (a gap) trong k thut ca phng Ty. C y tip tc gii thch, khi nhng nh k thut phng Ty s dng thnh ng "in vo ch trng" th ngi Nht ni "ng ca s". Sau c y cn s dng cc thnh ng khc. Ti s dng my nm sau khm ph, nghin cu v phn tch bt c ci g ti c th bi nhng biu hnh nn. iu tht khng d dng. Him c ti liu ting Anh v ch ny. Kin thc ban u ca ti vi s gip ca nh mi gii ngi Nht v thng qua vic ti t v v phn tch nhng biu hnh nn. Vi thng sau, ti mn c mt cun sch, n nh hng rt ln n cuc sng chuyn nghip ca ti. Gim c vn phng MTA, Shelley Lebeck, a cho ti mt cun sch v Biu hnh nn ca Seiki Shimizu v dch bi Greg Nicholson (Xut bn bi Tokyo Futures Trading Publishing Co.) c mang v t Nht. N cha ng khong 70 trang v nhng biu hnh nn v c dch sang ting Anh. c c n ging nh tm thy mt c o trong mt hoang mc. Ti nhn ra rng cun sch mang li rt nhiu kin thc. Phi mt nhiu thi gian v cng sc nm c ni dung ca n. Ti cng thy rng, rt kh khn dch mt ti chuyn dng nh vy t ting Nht sang ting Anh. Ti mang cun sch bn mnh hng thng tri, c i c li, ghi ch, p dng nhng kin thc cho nhng biu hnh nn c ti v bng tay. Ti nghin ngm v nhi nht nhng khi nim v thut ng mi. Ti cng may mn c c s gip ca tc gi, Seiki Shimizu, ngi tr li nhiu cu hi ca ti. Mc d Shimizu khng ni ting Anh, nhng ngi dch cun sch, Greg Nicholson, gip ti rt nhiu. Cun sch mang li nn tng cho s nghin cu tip phn cn li ca ti v nhng hnh nn. Khng c cun sch , cun sch ny cng khng th c. 2

 tip tc pht trin kh nng trong vic nghin cu biu k thut hnh nn, ti tm kim nhng ngi Nht ang hnh ngh, c thi gian v am m, ni vi ti v ch ny. Ti gp mt thng gia ngi Nht, Morihiko Goto, ngi s dng nhng biu hnh nn v sn sng chia s thi gian v s am hiu qu gi ca anh y. Anh ta ni vi ti rng gia nh ca anh y s dng nhng biu hnh nn qua nhiu th h. Chng ti dnh nhiu thi gian bn lun v lch s v cch s dng ca nhng biu hnh nn. Anh ta ng l mt kho kin thc v gi. Ti cng c mt s lng ln ti liu c dch. Vic thu c thng tin hnh nn ting Nht nguyn bn l mt vn . Vic dch n l ca ngi khc. C khong 400 ngi dch t ting Nht sang ting Anh M. Ti phi tm c mt ngi phin dch khng th ch dch thng thng, m phi c s hiu bit c bit su rng v phn tch k thut. V im ny ti may mn c s gip ca nhng dch v ngn ng New York. Gim c, Richard Solberg, mang li s gip rt cn thit. Anh ta l mt ngi him c. Anh ta l mt ngi M tri chy ting Nht, c hiu bit v s dng phn tch k thut. Trc khi nhng bi bo gii thiu v biu hnh nn ca ti xut hin cui nm 1989, ch c vi dch v cung cp biu hnh nn M. By gi, c qu nhiu nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu ny. Chng bao gm: Bloomberg L.P. (New York, NY); Commodity Trend Service Charts (North Palm Beach, FL); CompuTrac TM (New Orleans, LA); CQG (Glenwood Springs, CO); Ensign Software (Idaho Falls, ID); Futuresource TM (Lombard, IL); Knight Ridder - Commodity Perspective (Chicago, L). Khi bn c cun sch ny, c l s c thm nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu hnh nn. Tnh ph bin ca nhng dch v ny ngy mt gia tng mnh m. S tha thi ca nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu hnh nn lm chng cho tnh ph bin v s hu dng ca n. V SAO BIU K THUT HNH NN THU HT C S CH CA NHNG THNG GIA V NHNG NH U T KHP TH GII? Ti nhn c nhng cuc gi v fax t khp th gii ngh c bit thm nhiu thng tin v biu k thut hnh nn. Ti sao li c s quan tm rng khp ? C rt nhiu l do v sau y l mt vi trong s : 1. Tnh linh hot ca biu hnh nn. Ngi s dng c th bao gm t nhng ngi ln u tin dng theo phong tro, cho n nhng ngi dy dn kinh nghim. l bi v biu hnh nn c th c s dng c lp hoc kt hp k thut phn tch khc. Li th ch yu ca biu k thut hnh nn c cho l do nhng k thut ny c th c s dng thm vo, ch khng phi thay th cc cng c k thut khc. 2. Biu k thut hnh nn c s dng cho hu ht nhng mng cha bao gi c s dng M. Cho n nay, k thut ny gn nh c hng truyn thng c pht trin qua hng trm nm tm ti v th nghim ca vng Vin ng.

3. Hi c nhng thut ng cha ng hnh nh c s dng m t cc mu hnh. Ti nhn din t iu g c khin bn quan tm? ch l mt v d cho thy thut ng Nht Bn lm tng thm s hng th ca biu hnh nn, mt khi bn tri qua, bn s khng th khng s dng n. 4. Ngi Nht gn nh chc chn bit tt c cc phng php phn tch k thut ca phng Ty, nhng ngi phng Ty hu nh khng bit g v k thut ca ngi Nht. Ngi Nht s dng phi hp biu k thut hnh nn cng vi cc cng c k thut ca phng Ty. Ti sao chng ta khng lm nh h? 5. D liu cn thit to ra biu hnh nn cng tng t nh biu dng then chn ( l gi m, cao, thp, ng). iu ny rt c ngha khi n chc chn rng bt c k thut phn tch no s dng c vi biu dng then chn (nh cc ng trung bnh, xu hng, sng Elliott, s hiu chnh, v.v ) u c th p dng vi biu hnh nn. Nhng y mi l im mu cht. Biu hnh nn c th mang li nhng du hiu m biu dng then chn khng c. Bn cnh , c vi mu hnh c th cho php bn chim u th i vi nhng ngi s dng biu k thut truyn thng ca phng Ty. S dng biu hnh nn thay v biu dng then chn bn c kh nng s dng tt c k nng phn tch nh khi bn dng vi dng then chn, nhng biu hnh nn mang li cho bn mt kh nng phn tch rng ln hn nhiu. MT VI HN CH Cng nh tt c nhng phng php s dng biu , nhng mu hnh biu hnh nn ty thuc vo s gii thch ca ngi s dng. iu ny c th coi l mt hn ch. Nu bn c nhiu kinh nghim vi biu hnh nn trong lnh vc ca mnh, bn s thy nhng mu hnh, v nhng s bin i no ca nhng mu hnh ny, hot ng tt. Trong trng hp ny, ch quan c th khng phi l nguy him. Vi nhng kinh nghim bn c c qua k thut hnh nn, bn s khm ph ra nhng s kt hp no hot ng tt trong th trng ca bn. iu ny c th mang li cho bn mt li th i vi nhng ngi khng dnh thi gian v sc lc trong vic theo di st sao th trng nh bn. Nh s cp v sau, vic v cy nn i hi phi c gi ng. Bi vy, bn c th phi i kt thc c mt du hiu bun bn c gi tr. Thnh thong, ti c th s dng nhng biu tng gi c c mt du hiu mua bn hn l i n khi ng ca ca ngy . V d, c mt mu hnh tng gi tim nng trong biu ngy. Lc , ti nn i gi ng ca hon thnh mu hnh. Nu biu hng gi cng cho thy mt ci ch bo tng gi trong ngy y, th ti c th khuyn co mua (nu xu hng l tng) thm ch trc khi ng ca. Nhng biu hnh nn cung cp nhiu du hiu mua bn rt hu ch. Tuy nhin, chng khng cung cp nhng mc tiu gi. C nhng phng php khc d bo nhng ch gi (nh nhng ngng h tr hoc chng c trc , s hiu chnh, v.v ). Mt s ngi thc hin vic mua bn da vo cc du hiu, v gi thng v cho n khi c s xut hin mu hnh khc. Nhng mu hnh lun lun cn c nhn trong bi cnh khi n xut hin v trong quan h vi nhng du hiu k thut khc. Vi hng trm biu trong sut cun sch ny, ng ngc nhin nu bn thy c nhng mu m ti b qua trong nhng biu . cng l nhng v d v nhng mu hnh, i khi khng hot ng. Nhng hnh nn s khng cung cp mt cng c thng mi chnh xc tuyt i. Tuy nhin chng b sung thm vo bng mu k thut ca bn. 4

Nhng biu hnh nn cho php bn s dng nhng phng php k thut nh khi bn s dng vi biu then chn. Nhng nhng biu hnh nn cho bn nhng du hiu m biu then chn khng th. Vy ti sao phI s dng biu then chn? Trong tng lai gn, biu hnh nn c th tr nn ph bin nh biu then chn. Tht ra, ti a ra d on rng khi ngy cng c nhiu nh k thut cm thy thoi mi, thch nghi vi nhng biu hnh nn, h s khng cn s dng nhng biu then chn. Ti s dng mt k thut phn tch gn 20 nm. V by gi, sau khi khm ph tt c cc li ch ca n, ti ch s dng nhng biu hnh nn. Ti vn s dng tt c cc cng c k thut truyn thng ca phng Ty, nhng nhng biu hnh nn mang li cho ti mt ci nhn tng th v nhng th trng. Trc khi i su vo nhng biu hnh nn, ti s ni ngn gn v s quan trng ca phn tch k thut. i vi nhng ngi cha s dng phn tch k thut, on tip theo nhn mnh ti tm quan trng ca phn tch k thut. Vi nhng ngi hiu bit v nhng li ch ca phn tch k thut, c th b qua on ny. TM QUAN TRNG CA PHN TCH K THUT Tm quan trng ca phn tch k thut gm nm kha cnh di y. u tin, trong khi s phn tch c bn c th cung cp quy m cung cu, nhng t l gi/li nhun, nhng thng k kinh t hc, v.v, khng c thnh phn tm l hc ko theo trong s phn tch . Vy m nhiu th trng, i khi b nh hng, thm ch nng n, bi s a cm. John Manyard Keynes pht biu, "Khng c g bt hnh nh mt chnh sch u t hp l trong mt th gii v l". Phn tch k thut cung cp c ch duy nht o "s v l" hin din trong mi th trng. Th hai, nhng k thut cng l mt thnh phn quan trng trong vic khp mnh vo k lut giao dch. K lut trong giao dch gip nhng thng gia lm du bt nhng cng thng. Nu bn nghi ng iu ny, hy giao dch trn giy (tp mua bn bng cch vit ra giy). Ri th bun bn vi nhng qu ca chnh mnh. Bn s sm khm ph s cng thng, nghi ng, bn khon trong cch m bn mua bn v nhn nhn th trng. Nhng k thut cng mang li tnh khch quan trong vic a ra cc quyt nh. Chng cung cp mt c ch thit lp nhng im vo/ra, t nhng t l ri ro/li nhun, hoc nhng mc dng/thot. S dng chng s gip bn pht trin k nng qun l ri ro v li nhun trong giao dch. Th ba, i theo cc nh phn tch k thut cng kh quan trng d bn khng hon ton tin tng vo s s dng ca h. Bi v i khi k thut l l do chnh cho mt s chuyn ng ca th trng. Th t, l thuyt bc ngu nhin gii thch vic th trng c nhng ngy m gi khng c mi quan h vi gi ca ngy tip theo. V cui cng, quan st hot ng gi l phng php trc tip v c th tip cn d dng nht nhn ra nhng mi quan h cung cu ca th trng. C th c nhng tin tc quan trng khng c ph bin, nhng bn c th ch i n phn nh vo gi. Nhng ngi c kin thc su rng v nhng chuyn ng ca th trng c th s mua hoc bn khi gi c hin thi phn chiu thng tin ca h. V vy, gi c hin thi phn chiu tt c thng tin sn c, c ph bin rng khp hoc mt nhm no . NN TNG LCH S 5

"Thng qua vic tm hiu ci c, chng ta hc ci mi" Chng ny cung cp cho bn nn tng pht trin ca phn tch k thut Nht Bn. Nhng ngi mun i ngay vo phn ct li ca cun sch (k thut v cch s dng biu hnh nn), c th b qua chng ny, hoc tr li sau khi bn hon thnh phn cn li ca quyn sch. N l mt lch s hp dn. Ngi ni ting nht Nht Bn s dng gi qu kh d on chuyn ng gi tng lai l huyn thoi Munehisa Homma. ng tch ly c gia sn khng l qua vic bun bn go trong nhng nm 1700. Trc khi ni v Homma, ti mun cung cp tng quan ca nn kinh t, da vo m Homma c th pht t. Thi k ny bt u t nhng thp nin cui ca th k 16 n gia th k 18. T 1500 n 1600, Nht Bn l mt nc khng ngng ni chin. Trc nhng nm u 1600, ba tng Nobunaga Oda, Hideyoshi Toyotomi, v Ieyasu Tokugawa - hp nht Nht Bn trong c mt thi k 40 nm. S dng cm v nhng chin cng ca h c ghi li trong lch s v vn hc dn gian ca ngi Nht. Nhng qui tc trong qun i Nht c ph bin nhiu th k tr thnh l mt phn trong cc thut ng gn lin vi biu hnh nn. V khi bn so snh vi n, th vic bun bn cng i hi nhiu k nng cn thit nh nhng k nng chin thng mi trn nh. Nhng k nng nh vy bao gm k hoch chin lc, tm l hc, s cnh tranh, chin lc phng th, v.v thm ch c may mn. V vy khng c g ng ngc nhin khi sut cun sch ny bn s gp nhng thut ng v hnh nn ging nh khi ang trong chin trng. l night and morning attacks", "advancing three soldiers", "counter attack", "gravestone", v.v Kinh t rung t ln mnh, nhng quan trng hn, c s m rng v d dng trong ni thng. Trc th k 17, mt th trng quc gia tin trin thay th h thng nhng th trng c lp v a phng. Khi nim ny v th trng tp trung s gin tip dn dt ti s pht trin ca phn tch k thut Nht Bn. Hideyoshi Toyotomi lu tm ti Osaka nh th ca Nht v khuyn khch n pht trin nh mt trung tm thng mi. Osaka, Yodoya Keian tr thnh l mt thng nhn ca Hideyoshi (mt trong s ba tng ln nht). Yodoya c kh nng phi thng trong vic chuyn ch, phn phi, v thit lp gi c ca go. Anh ta tr nn rt giu c. n nm 1710, Trung tm mua bn go ra i. Sau 1710, s trao i, mua bn k gi c tin hnh cc kho. Vic mua bn go c ghi li qua nhng t bin nhn. Nhng bin nhn ny tr thnh nhng hp ng tng lai u tin tng c bun bn. Mi gii go tr thnh l nn tng ca s thnh vng ca Osaka. cho bn thy tnh ph bin ca nhng hp ng tng lai ny, xem v d sau: nm 1749, c tng s 110.000 bao go c giao dch Osaka. Vy m, khp c Nht Bn ch c 30.000. Quay li vi Homma. Munehisa Homma sinh nm 1724 trong mt gia nh giu c. Khi Homma lm ch doanh nghip gia nh vo nm 1750, anh ta bt u bun bn, trao i go ti a phng, trong thnh ph cng Sakata. Sakata l mt trong nhng vng thu gom v phn phi go. 6

Khi cha Munehisa Homma cht, Munehisa phi gnh vc trch nhim qun l ti sn ca gia nh. y thc s l mt kh khn vi mt thanh nin tr. Vi gia ti ny, Homma i ti trung tm giao dch go ln nht Nht Bn Osaka, v bt u giao dch nhng hp ng tng lai. tm hiu tm l ca nhng nh u t, Homma phn tch gi go li li thi gian trc, thi ca Yodoya. Homma cng lp h thng truyn thng ca ring mnh. Sau khi chim u th th trng Osaka, Homma m rng bun bn vi Edo (by gi gi Tokyo). ng ta s dng nhng s hiu bit su sc ca mnh tch ly c mt gia ti khng l. Vi nm sau Homma tr thnh mt c vn ti chnh ca Chnh ph v c phong tc v Samurai. Homma mt nm 1803. Sch ca Homma v th trng c vit vo th k 18. Nhng nguyn tc giao dch ca ng c p dng trong th trng go, v c pht trin thnh phng php lun biu hnh nn c s dng Nht Bn v v sau ph bin khp Th gii

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 2)

C BN CU TO BIU HNH NN "Khng c mi cho, bn khng th qua sng vi mt chic xung" Mt s so snh trc quan v s khc nhau ca biu dng then chn v biu hnh nn th d minh ha. Hnh 3.1 l biu dng then chn phng Ty quen thuc. Hnh 3.2 l biu hnh nn vi cng thng tin v gi nh trong biu then chn.

V NHNG CY NN v biu then chn hng ngy cn c gi m, cao, thp, v ng. ng thng ng trn biu then chn th hin gi cao v thp ca phin. ng nm ngang bn tri ng thng ng l gi m phin, bn phi ng thng ng l gi ng phin.

Hnh 3.3 cho thy cch xy dng mt biu then chn v mt biu hnh nn vi cng mt d liu. Mc d nhng biu then chn v hnh nn hng ngy s dng cng d liu, d nhn thy chng c v khc nhau. Ch dy nht ca cy nn c gi l thn nn. N m t phm vi gia gi m v ng ca phin . Khi thn nn mu en (t kn) n c ngha l ng phin thp hn m. Nu thn nn mu trng (rng), th n c ngha rng ng phin cao hn m (mu sc ca biu hnh nn c th thay i bi ngi s dng). Nhng ng mng trn v di thn nn l nhng bng nn. Nhng bng nn ny i din cho nhng cc tr gi ca phin. Bng trn thn nn c gi l bng trn v bng di thn nn c gi l bng di. Do , nh ca bng trn l gi cao nht phin v y ca bng di l gi thp nht phin. i vi ngi Nht, thn nn l s chuyn ng gi quan trng. Nhng bng nn thng c xem xt nh nhng dao ng gi bn ngoi. Nhng hnh t 3.4 n 3.7 th hin vi cy nn hay gp. Hnh 3.4 l mt cy nn en di, tng ng vi mt phin gim gi khi th trng m ca gn vi gi cao v ng ca gn vi gi thp. Hnh 3.5 cho thy s i lp ca mt thn nn en di, v do tng ng l mt phin tng gi. Gi c c mt phm vi rng v th trng m gn gi thp v ng gn gi cao ca phin. Hnh 3.6 cho thy nhng cy nn c thn nh v chng din t cuc chin gia bn bn v bn mua. Hnh 3.7 th hin nhng cy nn khng c thn, thay vo , chng l nhng ng nm ngang. l nhng v d ca nhng cy nn c gi l doji.

Ngi Nht c bit nhn mnh v mi quan h gia gi m v ng, v chng th hin nhng cm gic ca ngy giao dch. Ting Nht c mt thnh ng: "Gi u tin ca bui sng l phng hng ca ngy". Nh vy gi m l phng hng cho phin giao dch. N th hin manh mi u tin v phng hng ca ngy. l thi gian khi tt c tin tc v nhng li n t m trc c sng lc v sau th hin trong cng mt lc. 10

Sau hot ng nhn nhp u phin, nhng ngi mua v nhng ngi bn tim nng c mt chun nh gi, t h c th ch i mua v bn. C s ging nhau gia vic giao dch trn th trng v s giao chin trong mt trn nh. Trong ngha ny, gi m cung cp mt ci nhn tng quan ca chin trng v mt mi quan h tm thi gia hai phe. i khi, nhng thng gia ln c gng li th trng khi m phin bi nhng lnh mua hoc bn ln. Ting Nht gi l cuc tn cng bui sng (a morning attack). Ch rng iu ny tng t nh trong qun i. Ting Nht s dng nhiu s so snh vi qun i, nh vy chng ta s thy trong sut cun sch. THUT NG HNH NN V CM GIC TH TRNG Phn tch k thut l cch duy nht o lng cm xc ca th trng. Nhng tn gi ca nhng biu hnh nn Nht Bn lm cho iu ny r rng hn. Nhng tn gi cha ng nhng hnh nh ny c s dng m t sc khe ca th trng khi nhng mu ny c hnh thnh. Sau khi nghe nhng thnh ng ngi n ng b treo c (hanging man) hay m my en bao ph (dark-cloud cover), bn c ngh rng th trng ang trong mt trng thi mnh kho? Tt nhin khng! l hai mu hnh gim gi v tn ca chng r rng truyn t trng thi m yu ca th trng. i khi din bin th trng c th khng mnh kho lc hnh thnh nhng mu ny, n khng loi tr kh nng th trng s tr li mnh kho na. Khi c s xut hin ca m my en bao ph, trng thi mua cn c cn nhc k. Ty thuc vo xu hng chung v nhng yu t khc, trng thi bn mi c th c bt u. C nhiu quan nim v mu hnh mi trong cun sch ny, nhng nhng tn m t bi ting Nht khng ch lm cho biu hnh nn tr nn ng nghnh, m cn d nh hn khi nhng mu l tng gi hoc gim gi. V d, trong chng 5 bn s hc v sao Hm (evening star) v "sao Mai (morning star). Nu khng bit nhng mu hnh ny trng nh th no hoc chng ng g v th trng, ch nghe tn gi ca chng, bn ngh ci no l tng gi v ci no l gim gi? Tt nhin, sao Hm xut hin trc khi bng ti p xung, nghe nh du hiu gim gi - v ng nh vy ! Sao Mai, ngi sao bui sng xut hin trc bnh minh - l tng gi. Mt im then cht khc l gi ng, im quan trong i vi cc nh phn tch k thut. H c th i gi ng xc nhn mt tn hiu vt thot quan trng t biu . Nhiu h thng giao dch trn my tnh (v d, nhng ng trung bnh trt, ) u da trn gi ng phin. Nu c nhng lnh mua hoc bn ln c y vo th trng ti/gn thi im ng phin, vi mc ch lm nh hng n gi ng phin, ting Nht gi hnh ng ny l cuc tn cng ban m (a night attack)

11

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 3)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU "Bng ti nm ngay pha trc Nhng nh phn tch k thut ch i nhng manh mi gi c c th bo ng cho h mt s thay i trong tm l th trng v xu hng. Nhng mu hnh o chiu l k thut tm ra manh mi . Nhng thut ng ch mu hnh o chiu phng Ty nh hai nh, hai y, u vai, nh v y c lp, v.v Cho n nay, thut ng mu hnh o chiu c phn c hiu v dng sai. Nghe thut ng c th ngh rng mt xu hng c kt thc mt cch t ngt v sau c s o chiu sang xu hng mi. iu ny khng phI lc no cng din ra. S o chiu ca xu hng thng xut hin t t, trong mt khong thi gian, nh s thay i c bn v tm l. Mt tn hiu o chiu ca xu hng hm rng xu hng trc rt c kh nng thay i, nhng khng nht thit l ngc li. iu ny rt quan trng hiu c vn . So snh mt xu hng tng vi mt chic t ang hng v pha trc vi vn tc khong 50 km/h. Khi n phanh bt sng, chic xe chy chm li. Ci n phanh l mt ch bo o chiu ch ra rng xu hng trc ( y, chic xe ang chy) gn nh kt thc. By gi chic xe gn nh khng chuyn ng, ngi li xe s quay xe li, ng yn hoc quyt nh chy tip? Chng ta khng th bit nu khng c thm manh mi. Hnh 4.1 n 4.3 l mt vi v d v nhng g c th xy ra sau khi mt tn hiu o chiu nh xut hin. Xu hng tng gi trc , c th thay i thnh thi k i ngang ca gi. Sau mt xu hng mi, ngc vi xu hng c c th bt u - xem hnh 4.1. Hnh 4.2 th hin xu hng tng gi c c th hi phc li nh th no. Hnh 4.3 minh ha cho xu hng tng gi c th bt ng o chiu thnh ra xu hng gim gi.

Hy nh rng khi ngi ta ni mu hnh o chiu, n ch c ngha rng xu hng trc dng nh thay i nhng khng nht thit ngc li. Nhn ra s xut hin ca nhng mu hnh o chiu c th l mt k nng ng gi. thnh cng trong kinh doanh i hi bn phi nm c xu hng v c nhng g c th sp din ra. Nhng ch bo o chiu l cch m th trng cung cp tn hiu cho bn, ging nh tn hiu giao thng, v d nh Hy thn trng - Xu hng ca qu trnh thay i. Ni cch khc, tm l ca th trng thay i. 12

Bn nn iu chnh giao dch tng ng vi din bin mi ca th trng. C rt nhiu cch tham gia v thot ra khi th trng vi cc ch bo. Chng ta s bn lun v chng t u n cui cun sch ny. Mt nguyn tc c bn tham gia th trng ti mt v tr mi (da trn mt tn hiu o chiu) ch khi tn hiu theo chiu hng ca xu hng chnh. V d, trong mt th trng tng gi, mt mu hnh o chiu nh xut hin. Tn hiu gim gi ny khng cho php mt hnh ng bn ra. iu ny l bi v xu hng chnh vn l tng. D sao, n cng l tn hiu dng mua. Nu l mt xu hng gim ang thnh hnh, s hnh thnh ca mu hnh o chiu nh tng t c th c s dng bn ra. By gi, chng ta s i vo tm hiu nhng mu hnh u tin trong s nhng mu hnh o chiu. HAMMER V HANGING MAN Hnh 4.4 cho thy hai cy nn c bng di di v phn thn nh. Phn thn nm nh trong phm vi giao dch ca phin. S khc nhau ca hai cy nn trong hnh li cun ch n c th ch ra s tng hay gim gi ty thuc vo v tr chng xut hin trong mt xu hng. Nu mt trong hai cy nn xut hin trong mt xu hng gim, l mt du hiu ch ra rng xu hng gim c th kt thc. Trong bi cnh , cy nn c gi l mt hammer.

Hy xem hnh 4.5. Ngy nay ngi Nht gi n l takuri. T ny cng gn ging nh ang c gng o su ca dng nc vi cm gic ang ng y. Nu mt trong hai cy nn trong hnh 4.4 xut hin sau mt qu trnh tng gi, n mun ni vi bn rng qu trnh c th s kt thc. N ging nh l mt im g, nn c gi l hanging man (xem hnh 4.6). Ci tn ny xut pht t thc t l trng n ging nh ngi n ng b treo c vi hai chn lng lng. C v khng bnh thng khi nhng cy nn ging nhau li c th ch ra c tng v gim gi. So vi nhng hnh mu quen thuc ca phng Ty (island top v island bottom) bn s nhn ra rng quan nim c vn dng ging ht nhau. S xut hin ca island cng ch ra s tng hoc gim gi ty thuc v tr ca n trong mt xu hng. Mt island sau mt xu hng tng di l gim gi, trong khi mt island tng t sau mt xu hng gim l tng gi.

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Hammer v hanging man c th c on nhn bi ba tiu chun sau: 1. Phn thn nn nm phn trn ca phm vi giao dch. Mu sc ca thn nn khng quan trng. 2. di ca bng di c gp hai ln di ca phn thn tr ln. 3. N khng nn c, hoc c bng trn rt nh. Bng di cng di, bng trn cng ngn, thn ca nn cng nh cng c ngha tng gi (i vi hammer) hay gim gi (i vi hanging man). Mc d thn nn ca hammer hay hanging man c th mu trng hay en, mc tng ng k hn nu thn ca hammer mu trng, mc gim cng ng k hn nu thn ca hanging man mu en. Nu thn ca hammer mu trng, n mang ngha r rng rng th trng b bn tho gn nh sut phin v sau bt tr li vo lc ng phin gn vi gi cao ca phin. gn nh l khi ngun ca s tng gi. Nu thn ca hanging man mu en, n th hin rng gi ng phin khng th tr li mc gi m phin. iu hm kh nng gim gi. iu quan trng l bn phi i s xc nhn vi hanging man. Lp lun nh th no v s xut hin ca hanging man? Thng thng l trong bi cnh th trng th hin ht kh nng tng gi th hanging man xut hin. Vo phin hanging man, th trng m phin /gn gi cao, ri b bn tho, sau phc hi, ng phin /gn gi cao. Sc mnh ny khng phi l kiu hnh ng gi bn ngh rng hanging man c th l nh o chiu. Nhng kiu hnh ng gi ny ch ra rng th trng bt u hnh ng bn tho (sell off), n tr nn d b tn cng tip khi chng ta cha kp phng. Tn hiu xc nhn c th l mt khong trng gim gi (gia phn thn nn phin hanging man vi gi m phin k tip), hoc c th l mt phin gim gi vi gi ng phin thp hn gi ng phin hanging man.

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Hnh 4.7 l mt v d minh ha v sao nhng cy nn tng t nhau c th l gim gi (hanging man ngy 3/7) hoc tng gi (hammer - ngy 23/7), mc d c hai cy nn trong v d ny c thn mu en. iu ny cho thy mu sc ca thn nn khng phi l vn quyt nh.

Hnh 4.8 cho thy mt trng hp khc ca hai mu hnh ny. C mt mu hnh hanging man gim gi gia thng t bo hiu kt thc qu trnh tng gi bt u vi hammer tng gi vo ngy 2 thng 4. Mt bin th ca hanging man hin ra vo gia thng ba. Bng di ca n di, nhng khng gp hai ln chiu cao ca thn nn. Tuy nhin, cc tiu chun khc (phn thn nn nm phn trn ca phm vi giao dch v gn nh khng c bng trn) th hin. N cng c xc nhn bi mt gi ng thp hn phin k tip. Hnh mu ny mc d khng phi l mt hanging man l tng, bo hiu kt thc ca qu trnh tng gi bt u t mt thng trc. Biu k thut hnh nn, cng nh biu hoc k thut nhn dng khc, u c nhng nguyn tc ca n. Nhng khng phi l nhng quy tc cng rn. Nh trnh by trn, c nhng tiu chun nht nh lm gia tng tm quan trng ca hanging man v hammer. Vi hanging man gia thng ba, bng di ca n c th khng gp hai ln chiu cao ca thn cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu. Nu bng di di hn, mu hnh cng hon ho.

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Hnh 4.9 cho thy mt lot hammer tng gi c nh s t 1 ti 4 (hammer 2 vn c xem l mt hammer mc d n c bng trn nh). im ng lu ca biu ny l tn hiu mua c a ra u nm 1990. Mc gi thp mi xut hin hammer 3 v 4 khi gi thp hn hn c mc gi thp ca thng 7 ti hammer 2. Tuy nhin, khng c tip tc ca xu hng gim. Hammer 3 v 4 cho thy rng nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn iu khin. Hammer 3 khng phi l mt hammer l tng khi bng di khng gp 2 ln chiu cao thn nn. D sao n cng phn nh s tht bi ca nhng ngi u c gi xung. Hammer 4 cng c kt lun mt s o chiu y c v xut hin.

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Trong hnh 4.10 hammer 1 v 3 l nhng y. Hammer 2 bo hiu s kt thc ca xu th gim trc , xu hng gi chuyn t gim sang i ngang. Hammer 4 khng hiu qu. Hammer ny ni ln mt im quan trng v nhng hammer (hoc bt k mu hnh no m ti cp n). Chng cn phi c quan st trong bi cnh ca hot ng gi trc . Trong biu ny, hy xem hammer 4. Ngy hm trc ngy hammer ny, th trng th hin qua mt cy nn en gim gi rt mnh (vi a shaven head v a shaven bottom - m phin gi cao v ng phin gi thp ca phin). N th hin sc mnh gim gi cc ln. Hammer 4 cng xuyn qua mc h tr trc - ngy 24 thng 1. Xem xt nhng nhn t gim gi nu trn, nn thn trng i s xc nhn ca du hiu tng gi trc khi hnh ng theo hammer 4. V d, mt cy nn trng c gi ng phin cao hn gi ng phin hammer 4 c th c coi l mt s xc nhn.

Hnh 4.11 l biu hnh nn s dng gi theo tng gi. Quan st k biu ny, chng ta c th thy rng mt hammer hnh thnh trong gi u tin ca ngy 11/4. Nh hammer 4 trong hnh 4.10, gi gim to ra khong trng nhng cy nn trng sau c gi ng phin cao hn. iu ny l tn hiu xc nhn y. Cy nn gi th 2 ca ngy 12/4, mc d trong hnh dng nh mt hammer, nhng khng chnh xc l mt hammer. Mt hammer l mt mu hnh o chiu y. Cy nn ny cng khng phi l mt hanging man, khi hanging man thng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng gi. Trong trng hp ny, nu cy nn ny xut hin gn mc gi cao ca cy nn en trc , th n c xem xt nh mt hanging man.

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Hnh 4.12 cho thy mt hammer u thng t, nh du s kt thc ca xu hng gim gi mnh bt u t nhng thng trc . Bng di di (gp nhiu ln chiu cao thn nn), mt thn nn nh, v khng c bng trn to nn mt hammer kinh in.

Hnh 4.13 th hin mt hanging man kinh in. 18

Trong hnh 4.14 chng ta thy s vn ng tng ca gi, t u thng hai, kt thc vi ch n l s xut hin lin tc ca 2 hanging man. Tm quan trng ca s xc nhn du hiu gim gi sau hanging man c phn nh trong biu ny. Mt cch xc nhn du hiu gim gi l gi m ca phin tip theo thp hn gi phn thn ca hanging man. Lu rng sau s xut hin ca hanging man u tin, th trng m phin cao hn trc . Tuy nhin, sau hanging man th hai, th trng m phin thp hn gi phn thn ca hanging man, th trng bt u i xung.

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Hnh 4.15 minh ha mt thn nn en, vi gi ng phin thp hn phin hanging man, c th coi l cch khc ca s xc nhn du hiu gim gi. Ba cy nn s 1, 2, v 3 l mt lot hanging man. Thiu s xc nhn du hiu gim gi sau cy nn 1 v 2 c ngha l xu hng tng gi vn cn sc mnh. Quan st hanging man 3. Cy nn en i sau n l tn hiu xc nhn gim gi ca hanging man ny.

Hnh 4.16 cho thy mt s khc thng ca th trng t cui 1989 n u 1990. Quan st v tr tng gi dng li. N dng hanging man tun th ba nm 1990. Biu ny minh ha mt iu l mt mu o chiu xut hin khng c ngha rng gi s o chiu, nh chng ta cp trong chng 3. Mt ch bo o chiu ng rng xu hng trc c th chm dt. iu chnh xc vi nhng g xy ra y. Sau s xut hin mu hnh o chiu hanging man, xu hng tng gi trc chm dt vi xu hng mi l chuyn ng i ngang ca gi. Hanging man khc xut hin trong thng by. Ln ny gi nhanh chng o chiu t tng thnh gim

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Hnh 4.17 minh ha mt mu hnh hanging man kinh in trong thng nm. N cho thy mt thn nn rt nh, khng c bng trn, v mt bng di di. Thn nn en ngy tip theo xc nhn hanging man ny bo hiu mt thi gian gim gi. (Lu rng hammer tng gi t u thng t).

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Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 4)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU (Tip theo) ENGULFING Hammer v hanging man l nhng mu hnh mt cy nn ring bit. Chng c th gi nhng tn hiu quan trng v sc khe ca th trng. Tuy nhin, a s cc tn hiu t cc cy nn u da vo s kt hp ca nhiu cy nn ring l. Mu hnh engulfing l mu u tin trong s cc mu hnh da trn s kt hp ca nhiu cy nn. Mu hnh engulfing l tn hiu o chiu vi hai thn nn i lp v mu sc. Hnh 4.18 th hin mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Th trng ang trong mt xu hng gim gi, xut hin mt thn nn trng tng gi p o thn nn en trc . iu ny cho thy rng lc mua ln t lc bn. Hnh 4.19 minh ha mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Th trng ang trong mt xu hng tng gi, thn nn trng b ln t bi thn nn en, l tn hiu ca mt s o chiu nh. iu ny cho thy bn bn ginh quyn iu khin th trng.

C ba tiu chun i vi mu hnh englfing: 1. Th trng phi trong mt xu hng r rng, tng gi hoc gim gi, thm ch c th l xu hng ngn hn. 2. Hai cy nn to thnh mu hnh engulfing. Thn nn th hai phi p o thn nn trc (n khng cn phi ln t nhng bng nn). 3. Thn nn th hai ca mu hnh cn phi c mu i lp vi thn nn u tin. (ngoi l ca quy tc ny l nu thn nn u tin ca mu hnh nh, nh vy n gn nh l mt doji (hoc l mt doji). Do , sau mt xu th gim gi ko di, mt thn nn trng nh xu b p o bi mt thn nn trng rt ln c th l mt s o chiu y. Trong mt xu hng tng gi, mt thn nn en b ln t bi mt thn nn en rt ln c th l mt mu o chiu gim gi).

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Ging mu hnh engulfing ca Nht l reversal day ca phng Ty. Reversal day ca phng ty xut hin khi, trong thi gian xu hng tng (hoc gim gi), mt mc cao (hoc thp) mi c to ra vi gi ng thp hoc cao hn gi ng ca ngy trc . Bn s khm ph ra l mu hnh engulfing c th a ra tn hiu o chiu khng sn c vi reversal day ca phng Ty. iu ny cho php bn chim u th hn nhng ngi s dng reversal day truyn thng nh mt tn hiu o chiu. iu ny c trnh by qua cc hnh 4.21, 4.22, v 4.23.

Hnh 4.20 cho thy cho nhng tun bt u t 15/5 v 22/5 hnh thnh mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Trong hai tun cui thng by, mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi xut hin. Mu hnh engulfing tng gi thng chn l s phc hi t y ca qu trnh sell off trc .

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Hnh 4.21 l biu du th hng thng vi c hai mu hnh engulfing tng gi v gim gi. Cui nm 1985, c st gim mnh 20$ bt u. Thng ba v thng t nm 1986 xut hin hai cy nn ca mu hnh engulfing tng gi. N bo hiu s kt thc ca xu hng gim gi. Vn ng gi bt u vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi ny kt thc bi mu hnh engulfing gim gi vo gia nm 1987. Mu hnh engulfing tng gi nh trong thng hai v thng ba nm 1988 kt thc xu hng gim gi bt u vo gia nm 1987 bi mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Sau mu hnh engulfing tng gi ny, xu hng gim ca th trng gim chuyn thnh xu hng i ngang trong nm thng. Mu hnh engulfing gim gi nm 1987 v 1990 mang li mt li th ca mu hnh engulfing - N c th cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu khng th c nu s dng tiu chun reversal day trong k thut phng Ty. Mt quy tc cho top reversal day ca phng Ty (hoc, trong trng hp ny, reversal month) l mt mc cao mi phi c to ra bi s vn ng ca gi. Nhng mc cao mi cha c to ra bi thn nn en nhng thi k nm trong mu hnh engulfing gim gi.

Hnh 4.22 l mt v d khc th hin nhng biu hnh nn c th cho php chim u th so vi nhng cng c ca biu then chn thng thng. Quan st hot ng gi trn biu trong hai ngy 7 v 8 thng by. Mt ln na, mt khi khng c mc cao mi c to ra, khng c du hiu ca mt s o chiu nh nu s dng tiu chun reversal day truyn thng ca phng Ty. Tuy nhin, vi biu hnh nn, c mt tn hiu o chiu gim gi, l mu hnh engulfing gim gi, xut hin. 24

Hai cy nn 1 v 2 u thng su trng nh mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Tuy nhin, mu hnh engulfing tng gi l mt ch bo s o chiu xu hng y. iu ny c ngha n phi xut hin sau mt xu th gim (hoc i khi y ca mt di hp). u thng su, khi mu hnh engulfing tng gi xut hin, n khng hot ng chnh xc v n khng xut hin trong mt xu th gim.

Hnh 4.23 l mt lot cc mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Mu hnh 1 khin th trng bc sang xu hng i ngang trong mt di hp t xu hng tng gi trc ca n. Mu hnh 2 l mt s ngh ngi tm thi trc khi hi phc sc mnh tng gi. Nhng mu hnh engulfing gim gi 3, 4, v 5 u a ra tn hiu o chiu khng c c vi k thut ca phng Ty (khi khng c mc cao mi no c to ra bi s vn ng ca gi th chng khng phi l nhng tun o chiu c xem xt). DARK-CLOUD COVER Mu o chiu tip theo l dark-cloud cover (xem hnh 4.24). N l mt mu hnh hai cy nn bo hiu mt s o chiu nh sau mt xu hng tng gi, hoc i khi nh ca mt di hp. Cy nn u tin ca mu hnh hai cy nn ny l mt thn nn trng mnh m. Cy nn th hai c gi m cao hn gi cao ca phin trc (c ngha cao hn nh ca bng trn). Tuy nhin, vo khong cui phin th hai, th trng ng phin gn mc thp ca phin v bn trong thn nn trng ca phin trc. 25

Mc xm nhp vo phn thn cy nn trng cng ln th kh nng mt nh s xut hin cng cao. Nhiu nh k thut Nht Bn yu cu s xm nhp ln hn 50% mc ng phin gim vo phin tng trc . Nu cy nn en khng kt thc thp hn na thn nn trng, tt hn l i thm s xc nhn ca mu hnh gim gi dark-cloud cover.

L do cn bn ng sau mu hnh gim gi ny c gii thch d dng. Th trng trong mt xu hng tng. Mt cy nn trng tng gi mnh m, tip theo l mt khong trng tng gi u phin k tip. n y, nhng ngi u c gi ln nm hon ton quyn iu khin th trng. Nhng sau khng thy c s tip tc tng gi. Thc t l th trng kt thc /gn mc gi thp ca phin v bn trong phn thn nn trng ca phin trc. Trong bi cnh nh vy, nhng ngi mua s suy ngh li v v tr ca h. Nhng ngi ang i bn ngn hn by gi c mt im chun t mt lnh dng - ti mc gi cao mi ca phin th hai ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover. Sau y l mt s yu t lm tng thm tin cy ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover: 1. Mc xm nhp ca gi ng thn cy nn en vo thn cy nn trng trc cng ln, c hi cho mt nh cng cao. Thn nn en ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover ch xm nhp mt phn thn nn trng. Nu thn nn en bao trm ton b thn nn trng ca phin trc th mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi xut hin. V vy, mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi c ngha o chiu nh hn. Nu mt thn nn trng, di kt thc trn mc gi cao ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover, hoc engulfing gim gi th n c th bo trc s vn ng khc. 2. Trong mt xu hng tng gi ko di, nu c mt cy nn trng mnh m - m gi thp (khng c bng di), ng gi cao (khng c bng trn), v phin sau l mt thn nn en di, m gi cao v ng gi thp, sau s xut hin phin gim mnh, khng c bng trn v bng di. 3. Nu thn nn th hai (thn nn en) ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover c gi m trn mt mc khng c mnh v sau rt, n chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln khng th iu khin c th trng. 4. Nu vo u phin th hai c mt khi lng giao dch rt ln, tnh trng qu mua c th xut hin. V d, khi lng giao dch rt ln ti mt mc gi m cao mi c th c ngha rng nhiu ngi mua mi quyt nh nhy ln tu. Ri sau th trng bn tho. C l s khng qu lu trc khi m ng nhng ngi mua mi hiu ra rng con tu m h nhy ln l tu Titanic. 26

i vi nhng ngi giao dch th trng tng lai, khi lng giao dch cc ln cng l mt tn hiu cnh bo khc. Hnh 4.25 th hin s khc nhau gia mu hnh dark-cloud cover v engulfing. Hai thn nn trong thng su nm 1989 to thnh mt dark-cloud cover. Mt thn nn trng di, tip theo l mt thn nn en, di. Thn nn en m mt mc cao mi, sau ng gn mc thp ca n v bn trong thn nn trng trc . Th trng tri phiu c du hiu gim nhit sau khi c s o chiu nh ny xut hin. Tuy nhin s gim st mnh ch n vi tun , khi mu hnh engulfing c c th ha. Chng ta c th thy thn nn en ca dark-cloud cover bao trm mt phn thn nn trng trc . Thn nn en ca mu hnh engulfing gim gi bao bc ton b thn nn trng trc n.

Trong hnh 4.26 c ba mu hnh dark-cloud cover c nhn din. Nhng tn hiu gim gi khc nhau c xc nhn qua mi mu hnh ny. Chng ta hy xem xt tng mu hnh ring l.

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1. Dark-cloud cover 1. y l mt bin th ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover l tng. Trong dark-cloud cover ny, thn nn en ca ngy th hai m mc gi cao ca ngy hm trc, thay v trn n. ch l mt tn hiu cnh bo, nhng cn c nhn nhn l nh l mt yu t ph nh. Mu hnh dark-cloud cover ny cng th hin mt n lc bt thnh ca nhng ngi u c gi ln trong vic vt qua mc khng c mc gi cao gia thng hai. 2. Dark-cloud cover 2. Khng k mu hnh ny, c l do khc cho vic cn phi thn trng mc 21$. Mt tin k thut l: mt mc h tr sau khi b ph b c th chuyn i thnh mc khng c mi. iu xy ra ti 21$. Ghi nh rng mc h tr c 21$ b xuyn thng mt ln vo ngy 9 thng ba, c chuyn thnh mc khng c. Nhng n lc b ph sn th hin qua mu hnh ny trong hai ngy u tin ca thng t minh ha cho mc khng c ny. (Chng 11 s cp n khi nim c th hon i vai tr ca mc h tr v khng c). 3. Dark-cloud cover 3. Mu hnh ny cng th hin c mt s tht bi ti mt ngng khng c c thit lp nhng mc gi cao cui thng t. l nhng v d th hin mu hnh dark-cloud cover trng vi nhng mc khng c. Khi nim ny th hin l nhng khu vc c s hi t ca nhiu ch bo k thut th cng quan trng. l tiu im chnh ca phn 2 ca cun sch - S kt hp ca k thut hnh nn vi nhng cng c k thut khc.

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Hnh 4.27 ch ra rng trong thi gian u thng ba, dark-cloud cover 1 l s tm dng ca mt xu hng tng. S iu chnh xy ra sut tun sau . Hai dark-cloud cover na c hnh thnh trong thng t. Dark-cloud cover 2 ng rng s tng gi mnh trong hai ngy c l kt thc. Dark-cloud cover 3, gia thng t, th c bit gim gi mnh. Trong hnh 4.28, chng ta nhn thy gi c xu hng tng bt u t ngy 10/2 n khi t ngt dng vo gia thng hai vi s xut hin ca dark-cloud cover.

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Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 5)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU (Tip theo) PIERCING PATTERN Trong nhiu bui, sau khi trnh by v mu hnh gim gi dark-cloud cover, khng lu sau s c ngi hi v mu i lp. C. V n c gi l mu hnh piercing. Nh bit, trong khi dark-cloud cover l mt s o chiu nh, i lp vi n, piercing l mt s o chiu y (xem hnh 4.29). N gm hai thn nn trong mt th trng sa st. Thn nn u tin mu en v thn nn th hai l thn nn trng di. Thn nn trng ny gi m phin rt thp, di c mc gi thp ca thn nn en trc . Ri gi c y cao hn, to ra mt thn nn trng di tng i, ng phin trn im chnh gia ca thn nn en phin trc.

Mu hnh piercing tng gi gn ging vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Trong mu hnh engulfing tng gi, thn nn trng p o ton b thn nn en trc . Vi mu hnh piercing tng gi, thn nn trng ch ln t mt phn thn nn en trc . Trong mu hnh piercing, mc xm nhp vo phn thn nn en cng ln th kh nng mt y o chiu cng cao. Mt mu hnh piercing l tng s c mt thn nn trng m ng phin cao hn na thn nn en ca phin trc. Nu th trng kt thc di mc gi thp ca mu hnh engulfing tng gi hoc piercing bng mt thn nn en di, th mt xu hng gim gi khc li tip tc. Tm l hc ng sau mu hnh piercing c gii thch nh sau: th trng trong mt xu th gim st. Thn nn en gim gi cng c trng thi ny. Th trng m phin sau thp hn qua mt khong trng gim gi. Nhng ngi u c gi xung ang quan st th trng vi s mn nguyn. Ri th trng bt ln, v pha gi kt thc phin trc, nhng khng ch dng , m kt thc r rng trn mc . Nhng ngi u c gi xung ang cn nhc li v tr ca h. Nhng ngi ang xem xt mua ngh mc thp mi c th khng gi c v c l n lc mua vo. 30

Mu hnh piercing cng c mt s yu t (t 1 n 4) lm tng thm tin cy ging nh mu hnh darkcloud cover, nhng ngc li (xem li mu hnh trc). Trong phn v mu hnh dark-cloud cover, ti cp rng mc d nhiu nh k thut Nht Bn yu cu s xm nhp ln hn 50% mc ng phin gim vo phin tng trc , vn c s linh hot trong quy tc ny. Vi mu hnh piercing, tnh linh hot khng bng. Cy nn trng ca mu hnh piercing cn phi y qua c na thn nn en. L do cho s km linh hot ca mu hnh piercing tng gi so vi mu hnh dark-cloud cover l thc t trong k thut ca ngi Nht c ba mu hnh khc, tn gi l on-neck, in-neck v thrusting (xem hnh 4.30 n 4.32) c cu to c bn ging nh mu hnh piercing, nhng chng cn c xem nh tn hiu gim gi khi thn nn trng nm di na thn nn en.

Nh vy ba mu hnh gim gi tim nng ny (hnh 4.30 n 4.32) v mu hnh piercing tng gi (hnh 4.29) c cng mt nh dng. S khc nhau ca chng nm mc ca s xm nhp bi thn nn trng vo trong thn nn en. Vi mu hnh on-neck, thn nn trng (thng l cy nn nh) ng phin gn vi gi thp ca phin trc. Vi mu hnh in-neck, thn nn trng ng phin mt mc xm nhp khng ng k vo thn nn trc (cng thng l cy nn trng nh). Mu hnh thrusting cn phi l mt thn nn trng mnh m hn, di hn so vi mu hnh in-neck, nhng ng phin vn khng nm trn na thn nn en trc . Vi nhng mu hnh ny, khi gi vn ng di mc thp ca cy nn trng, cc thng gia (traders) bit rng l thi gian bn. (Lu rng mu hnh thrusting trong hnh 4.32 l gim gi trong mt th trng xung dc, nhng nh mt phn ca mt th trng tng gi, nn c cn nhc k. Mu hnh thrusting cng l tng gi nu n xut hin hai ln trong vng vi ngy). Khng qu quan trng nh tng mu hnh trong cc hnh 4.30 ti n 4.32. Ch cn nh khi nim l thn nn trng cn phi y cao hn na ca thn nn en gi mt tn hiu ca s o chiu y.

31

Trong hnh 4.33, nhng ngi u c gi xung thnh cng rc r khi th trng xung n mc thp mi vo ngy 27 thng t, c th hin qua cy nn en di. Ngy hm sau th trng m thp hn. Gi m ny tr thnh mc gi thp ca ngy v Boeing ng phin bn trong thn nn en ca ngy trc . Hai cy nn vo ngy 27, 28 thng t to thnh mu hnh piercing tng gi.

32

Hnh 4.34 cho thy mt mu hnh piercing kinh in trong tun 26 thng ba. Hy lu cch m thn nn trng theo sau mt thn nn en di, rt yu. Thn nn trng m phin mt mc gi thp mi. Sau gi tng mnh m, ng phin gi b y ln qu na thn nn en phin trc, l mt ch nh mnh rng nhng ngi u c gi xung mt kh nng iu kin th trng. Thn nn trng l mt phin giao dch rt si ng. N m phin mc gi thp nht (c ngha khng c bng di) v ng phin mc gi cao nht (khng c bng trn). Lu rng mu hnh piercing tng gi ny mang ti s kt thc ca t bn tho (sell off) bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi, ngy 19 v 20 thng ba. Trn biu La m ny cng c mt bin th ca mu hnh piercing trong tun t 12 thng ba. L do n l mt bin th bi v thn nn trng c gi m di thn nn en, nhng khng thp hn gi thp nht ca phin trc. D sao, v thn nn trng ng phin cao hn na thn nn en ca phin trc l mt du hiu cnh bo rng xu hng gim gi trc kt thc.

Hnh 4.35 minh ha cch nhng biu hnh nn c th gip ngi phn tch c mt cm gic v sc khe ca th trng nhanh chng nh th no. Trong thng hai nm 1990, c mt ngi mi gii hi ti ngh sao v gi la mch. Ti him khi theo di giao dch la mch. D sao ti cng xem xt biu gi ca la mch v ni vi anh y rng xu th gim st c l kt thc. Ti sao? Ti lu anh y rng trong tun t 20 thng hai, mt mu hnh piercing kinh in xut hin. Ti cng thy mu hnh piercing ny trng vi mt ln test thnh cng nhng mc gi thp u thng hai. iu ny lm tng thm c hi cho mt y i (a double bottom) c to thnh.

33

Hnh 4.36 minh ha xu th gim st - bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi cui nm 1984 - chm dt vo gia nm 1987 vi s xut hin ca mu hnh piercing. Mc d th trng khng phc hi gi sau tn hiu o chiu y ny, nhng n cng d bo s kt thc ca p lc bn tho ko th trng i xung t cui nm 1984 n gia nm 1987. Sau mu hnh piercing, th trng tr nn n nh trong vng mt nm, v sau tng gi tr li.

34

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 6)

NHNG NGI SAO Mt nhm ca nhng mu hnh o chiu l nhng mu hnh c nhng ngi sao. Mt ngi sao l mt thn nn nh c khong trng vi thn nn ln i trc n (hnh 5.1). Cng c coi l ngi sao min l phn thn ca n khng chng ln thn nn trc. Mu sc ca ngi sao khng phi l vn quan trng. Nhng ngi sao c th xut hin nhng nh hoc nhng y (i khi mt ngi sao trong thi gian mt xu th gim c gi l ht ma ri (a rain drop). Nu ngi sao l mt doji thay v mt thn nn nh, th n c gi l mt ngi sao doji (hnh 5.2).

Ngi sao, c bit l ngi sao doji, l mt cnh bo xu hng trc c th kt thc. Thn nh ca ngi sao din t mt s b tc trong cuc chin gia nhng ngi u c gi ln v u c gi xung. Trong mt xu hng tng gi, nhng ngi u c gi ln ang tch ly. Vi s hin ra ca mt ngi sao sau mt thn nn trng di trong xu hng tng, l mt tn hiu ca s thay i t nhng ngi mua ang iu khin n mt s b tc gia bn mua v bn bn. S b tc ny cng c th xut hin bi s gim bt trong lc mua hoc s tng ln trong lc bn. Ngi sao nh ni vi chng ta sc mnh ca xu hng tng gi trc c xua tan v th trng d b tn cng bi mt s i xung. iu tng t cng ng, nhng ngc li, i vi mt ngi sao trong mt xu hng gim. Ngha l, nu mt ngi sao i sau mt cy nn en di trong mt xu th gim st, n phn nh mt s thay i trong mi trng kinh doanh. V d, trong mt xu hng gim gi, nhng ngi u c gi xung nm quyn iu khin, nhng mt s thay i c nhn thy trong s xut hin ca ngi sao, n bo hiu mt mi trng trong nhng ngi u c gi ln v u c gi xung tr nn cn bng hn. Sc mnh xung gi b trit tiu. Lc khng phi l mt kch bn thun li cho mt s tip tc gim gi ca th trng. 35

Ngi sao l mt phn ca bn mu hnh o chiu, bao gm: evening star, morning star, doji star v shooting star. Trong cc mu hnh ny, phn thn ca ngi sao c th mu trng hoc en.

THE MORNING STAR

Mu hnh the morning star (hnh 5.3) l mt mu hnh o chiu y. Tn ca n xut pht t vic, nh ngi sao bui sng bo trc bnh minh, n bo trc gi c s cao hn. N gm c mt thn nn cao, en theo sau l mt thn nn nh c khong trng gim gi (hai thn nn ny c mt mu ngi sao c bn). Thn nn th ba c thn mu trng, m vn ng ca gi vo bn trong thn nn en phin u tin. Mu hnh ny l mt tn hiu cho thy nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn iu khin. Ti s phn tch mu hnh ba cy nn ny bng cch tm hiu tng thnh phn ca n hiu yu t cn bn ng sau pht biu trn Th trng trong mt xu hng gim gi khi chng ta nhn thy mt thn nn en. Vo thi gian ny nhng ngi u c gi xung nm quyn iu khin. Ri mt thn nn nh xut hin. iu ny c ngha rng nhng ngi bn ang mt kh nng iu khin th trng xung thp hn. Phin tip theo, thn nn trng mnh m chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn. Mt mu hnh the morning star l tng c mt khong trng trc v sau thn nn gia (ngi sao). Khong trng th hai ny th him c, nhng s thiu n khng c v lm yu i sc mnh ca mu hnh ny

36

Hnh 5.4 ch ra mt mu hnh morning star tng gi ny sinh trong thi gian t 19 n 21 thng mi hai. S tng gi bt u vi mu hnh ny kt thc bi mu hnh dark-cloud cover vo 26, 27 thng mi hai. Hnh 5.5 th hin rng thng mi mc gi thp c to ra qua mt ngi sao (thn nn nh tun u thng mi). Tun sau ngi sao ny, th trng l mt thn nn trng mnh m. Thn nn trng ny hon thnh mu hnh the morning star. Thn nn en sau thn nn trng ny hnh thnh mt mu hnh darkcloud cover. Th trng tm thi gim gi. Du sao, mu hnh the morning star cng tr thnh mt y chnh. Hnh 5.6 cho thy mt bin th ca mu hnh the morning star, trong c hn mt ngi sao (trong trng hp ny c ba "ngi sao"). Lu rng thn nn nh th ba (ngi sao th ba) l mt mu hnh the hammer, n v thn nn nh trc n cng to nn mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi

37

38

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 7)

NHNG NGI SAO (tip theo) THE EVENING STAR Mu hnh the evening star l mt mu hnh gim gi i lp vi mu hnh the morning star. N ging vi tn gi bi v sao Hm xut hin trc khi bng ti p xung. Khi mu hnh the evening star l mt s o chiu nh n cn phi c hnh ng theo nu n xut hin sau mt xu hng tng gi. Ba thn nn to thnh mu hnh the evening star (xem hnh 5.7). Hai thn nn u tin l mt thn nn di, trng theo sau l mt ngi sao. Ngi sao l gi u tin ca mt nh. Thn nn th ba lm r thm nh v hon thnh mu hnh the evening star. Thn nn th ba c thn mu en, m vn ng ca gi vo bn trong thn nn trng phin u tin. Ti thch so snh mu hnh the evening star vi mt ci n giao thng. n giao thng i t mu xanh (thn nn trng tng gi) ti mu vng (tn hiu cnh bo ca ngi sao) ti mu (thn nn en xc nhn xu hng trc chm dt).

V nguyn tc, mu hnh the evening star phi c mt khong trng gia thn nn th nht v th hai v khong trng khc gia thn nn th hai v th ba. Tuy nhin, t kinh nghim ca ti, khong trng th hai ny him khi c nhn thy v khng cn thit cho thnh cng ca mu hnh ny. Mi quan tm chnh phi l phm vi xm nhp ca thn nn en ngy th ba vo trong thn nn trng ngy u tin. Thot nhn hnh 5.7 nh s o chiu nh hn o (island top) c s dng bi nhng nh k thut phng Ty. Vic phn tch mu hnh the evening star t m hn ch ra rng n cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu khng c c vi mu hnh island top (xem hnh 5.8). i vi mu hnh island top, mc gi thp ca phin 2 phi trn nhng mc gi cao ca phin 1 v 3. Tuy nhin, mu hnh the evening star ch yu cu mc gi thp ca thn nn th 2 trn mc gi cao ca thn nn 1 l tn hiu ca s o chiu. 39

40

Mu hnh the evening star trong hnh 5.9 cho thy ma h nm 1987 thit lp mc gi cao mi ca Dow trc khi sp (Ti t hi nu nhng nh k thut ngi Nht s dng nhng biu hnh nn ang nhn thy n!).

Hnh 5.10 cung cp mt v d cch m nhng ch bo ca biu hnh nn c th truyn mt tn hiu o chiu khng d thy c vi cng c phng Ty ra sao. Gi cui cng ngy 5 thng chn v hai gi u tin ngy tip theo hnh thnh mt mu hnh the evening star. Ngi sao ca mu hnh ny khng phi l mt nh hn o (island top) da vo phn trnh by nu trn. Trong v d ny, nhng cy nn cung cp mt ch nh o chiu nh khng phi l sn c vi nh hn o (island top) ca phng Ty. Cng lu rng s tng gi chm dt vi mu hnh the evening star ny c bt u vi mu hnh the morning star vo ngy 4 thng chn. Mc d thng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng, the evening star cng c th xut hin nh ca mt di hp nu n xc nhn tn hiu gim gi khc (hnh 5.11). l nhng g xy ra vo gia thng t. Phn ngi sao (ngy th hai) ca mu hnh the evening star trng vi mt ngng khng c. C s cho ngng khng c ti 413$ l l mt ngng h tr trc y t cui thng ba. Ngng h tr c thng i thnh ngng khng c mi. Hy nh iu ny! chnh l s hu ch ca quy tc giao dch. Chng 11 s trnh by chi tit hn v mc h tr v khng c. Trong bt k trng hp no, mc khng c gn 413$ trng vi s xut hin ca mu hnh the evening star nh th cng cng c thm s o chiu ca mu.

41

42

Hnh 5.12 cho thy mt mu hnh the evening star c xc nh vo gia thng mi hai. Ngi sao l mt thn nn trng mnh m v theo sau l mt thn nn en, yu. Mt bin th ca mu hnh the evening star xut hin gia thng mi mt. L do n l mt bin th l mu hnh the evening star thng thng c mt thn nn trng di i trc ngi sao, ri thn nn en sau ngi sao. Chng ta khng nhn thy thn nn di, trng hoc en y. Chng ta c th xem n nh mt nh, tuy nhin, khng ch v n gn ging mu hnh the evening star, m cn v s xut hin ca mu hnh hanging man vo ngy 21/11 (phn ngi sao ca mu hnh the evening star). Gi m phin k tip di thn nn ca mu hnh hanging man xc nhn mt nh. 1. Nu c mt khong trng gia cy nn u tin v phn thn ca ngi sao v sau gia thn ngi sao v thn nn th ba. 2. Nu thn nn th ba kt thc tht su vo trong thn nn u tin. 3. Nu c khi lng giao dch thp thn nn u tin v khi lng giao dch cao thn nn th ba. iu ny cho thy mt s gim bt ca lc cho xu hng trc v mt s gia tng lc iu khin xu hng mi.

43

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 8)

NHNG NGI SAO (tip theo) THE MORNING V EVENING DOJI STARS Khi mt doji c mt khong trng trn mt thn nn trong mt th trng ln, hoc mt khong trng di mt thn nn trong mt th trng xung, doji c gi l mt ngi sao doji. Hnh 5.2 cho thy nhng ngi sao doji. Nhng ngi sao doji l mt cnh bo mnh rng xu hng trc c kh nng thay i. Phin sau phin doji cn phi xc nhn s o chiu xu hng. Do mt ngi sao doji trong mt xu hng tng theo sau l mt thn nn en, di m kt thc vo trong thn nn trng xc nhn mt s o chiu nh. Mt mu hnh nh vy c gi l the evening doji star (xem hnh 5.13). Mu hnh the evening doji star l mt dng c bit ca mu hnh the evening star thng thng. Mu hnh the evening star thng thng c mt thn nn nh, c gi l ngi sao (thn nn th hai), nhng mu hnh the evening doji star c mt doji nh mt ngi sao. Mu hnh the evening doji star th quan trng hn bi v n cha ng mt doji. Mt ngi sao doji trong mt xu hng tng thng l du hiu ca mt nh sp xy ra. Cn ch rng nu phin sau ngi sao doji l mt thn nn trng vi khong trng cao hn, tn hiu gim gi ca ngi sao doji c ph nhn. Trong mt xu hng gim gi, nu c mt thn nn en, theo sau l mt ngi sao doji, s xc nhn mt s o chiu y xut hin nu phin tip theo l mt thn nn trng mnh m, kt thc vo trong thn nn en. Mu hnh gm ba thn nn c gi l the morning doji star (xem hnh 5.14). Mu hnh ny c th l mt y rt c ngha. Nu trong mt xu th gim st, mt thn nn en vi nhng khong trng di ngi sao doji, tim nng tng gi ca ngi sao doji b mt hiu lc. iu ny cho thy tm quan trng i s xc nhn trong nhng phin tip theo ngi sao doji.

44

Nu c mt mt ngi sao doji c khong trng tng gi vi thn nn trng (m nhng bng nn khng chm nhau) theo sau l mt khong trng gim gi vi thn nn en (nhng bng nn cng khng chm nhau), ngi sao c xem xt nh l mt tn hiu ca s o chiu nh chnh. Mu hnh ny c gi l a tr b b ri nh (abandoned baby top), xem hnh 5.15. Mu hnh ny rt him khi xy ra.

iu tng t cng ng, nhng ngc li, cho mt y. c bit, nu c mt ngi sao doji m c mt ch trng trc v sau n (nhng bng nn khng chm nhau) n cn phi c xem l mt y chnh. Mu hnh ny c gi l a tr b b ri y (abandoned baby bottom), xem hnh 5.16. Mu hnh ny cng rt him khi xy ra. Mu hnh abandoned baby (a tr b b ri) nh mt nh/y hn o phng Ty (island top/bottom), hn o l mt doji. Hnh 5.17 minh ha mt ngi sao doji u thng su ch ra xu hng gim gi chm dt. N vn c gi l mt ngi sao mc d bng ca ngi sao doji c s gi ln thn nn en ca ngy trc . Khi thn nn trng xut hin sau ngi sao, l s xc nhn thi k st gim qua. Thn nn en trc v thn nn trng sau ngi sao doji lm cho ba thn nn ny to thnh mu hnh morning doji star.

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Trn thn nn ngi sao doji trn hnh 5.18, gi rt xung 85$. y l mt vng h tr t u thng by. Thc t rng mc gi thp mi khng th gi c l tn hiu tng gi cn c xem xt. Thm vo mu hnh the morning doji star ny, bn c hai l do nghi ng mt y. Hnh 5.19 l mt v d c c mu hnh evening doji star v mu hnh evening star thng thng. Hot ng gi t thng ba qua thng nm nm 1986 hnh thnh mu hnh evening doji star. Mu hnh ny l s kt thc ca mt qu trnh tng gi bt u

46

ch mt t thng trc . Mt t bn tho xy ra sau mu hnh evening doji star ny. N chm dt vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi. S tng gi t mu hnh engulfing tng gi kt thc khi c s xut hin mu hnh the evening star vo gia nm 1987

47

Trong hnh 5.20, chng ta nhn thy mu hnh the evening doji star vo 17, 18 v 19 thng ba. Mu hnh ny chm dt s tng gi bt u vi mt hammer tun trc. Trong trng hp ca Dow Chemical, lu l the evening doji star khng thc s l mt ngi sao. Mt ngi sao doji c thn nn (gi m v gi ng) cn phi trn thn nn ca ngy trc, y n khng nh vy. Bi vy, cho php tnh linh hot hn vi nhng ch bo hnh nn vi nhng c phiu. i vi nhng ngi theo di th trng c phiu, trong khi th nghim k thut hnh nn, bn cn phi khm ph rng nhng mu hnh no c th phi c sa i.

Trong hnh 5.21, c th nhn thy mt mu hnh evening doji star xut hin vi tun trc khi c t bn tho mnh ca nm 1987. Thn nn trung tm ca mu hnh ny (ngi sao doji) khng c khong trng trn thn nn trng trc nh cn phi c i vi mt ngi sao l tng. Tuy nhin, nh cp trong hnh 5.20, cn phi cho php c s thay i vi khi nim nhng khong trng khi nhng c phiu thng m ca ti/hoc rt gn, gi ng ca ca phin trc.

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Hnh 5.22 bc l mt s kin rt khc thng v im bo xu sau nhng mu hnh evening doji star. Thn nn t 1 n 3 hnh thnh mt evening star. Ba phin tip theo, t 4 n 6, to thnh mt evening star khc.

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Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 9)

NHNG NGI SAO (tip theo) THE SHOOTING STAR V THE INVERTED HAMMER Mu hnh shooting star gi mt cnh bo mt nh sp xy ra. N trng nh tn ca n, mt sao bng. N thng thng khng phi l mt tn hiu o chiu chnh nh mu hnh the evening star. Nh th hin trong hnh 5.23, shooting star c mt thn nh nm y trong phm vi ca phin vi mt bng trn di. Ging nh i vi tt c cc ngi sao, mu ca thn nn khng phi l quan trng. Mu hnh the shooting star bng hnh nh ni vi chng ta rng th trng m phin gn mc gi thp ca n, ri tng gi v cui cng gim gi kt thc gn gi m. Mt mu hnh shooting star l tng c mt thn nn c khong trng vi thn nn trc. Tuy nhin, nh s c thy trong cc v d biu , khong trng ny khng phi lun lun cn thit. Mt thn nn theo khun shooting star sau mt thi k suy thoi c th l mt tn hiu tng gi. Mu hnh c gi l inverted hammer. Mu hnh the inverted hammer c trnh by v sau trong chng ny

Trong hnh 5.24, c th nhn thy vo ngy 2 thng t, mt shooting star gim gi ang bo hiu s rc ri.

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Hnh 5.25 minh ha tt cho the shooting star v nhng s bin i ca n. Nhng s bin i ca shooting star bao gm: 1. Shooting star 1 l mt bin th ca shooting star. N khng phi l ngi sao l tng bi v khng c khong trng gia nhng thn nn. Tuy nhin n cng chng minh s tht bi ca nhng ngi u c gi ln duy tr s iu khin th trng. 2. Shooting star 2 khng quan trng lm. N c mt phn tiu chun ca mt shooting star (mt ngi sao vi mt thn nh v bng trn di). Tuy th, n thiu mt quy tc quan trng. N khng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng m cng khng nh ca mt di hp. Nh vy, n cn phi c nhn nh mt ngy thn nh vi ngha nh b. Mt thn nh (a spinning top) phn nh s do d. Trong kinh doanh, s do d cn phi c ch i. 3. Shooting star 3 c hnh dng ca shooting star nhng n khng phi l mt ngi sao, v n khng to ra khong trng t thn nn trc. Tuy nhin, ngy ny cn phi c nhn trong bi cnh hot ng gi trc . nh ca bng trn ca shooting star 3 l mt cuc tn cng mc gi cao u thng tm ti 6.18$. Nhng ngi u c gi ln t lm suy yu mnh ti mc . Soybeans ri ng gn thp ca ngy.

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4. Shooting star 4 rt ging shooting star 3. N cng khng phi l mt shooting star l tng khi thn n khng to ra khong trng t thn trc. l s c gng khc m dao ng ti gn 6.18$. N chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln khng th ginh c quyn iu khin. 5. Shooting star 5 l s tht bi khc ngng khng c. Bn phi ngng m s ngoan cng ca nhng ngi u c gi ln trong vic c gng y th trng ln cao hn. Vi mi s tht bi ngng khng c 6.18$, chng ta t hi khi no nhng ngi u c gi ln s khng y ln na. Chng ta c cu tr li vi shooting star 6. 6. Shooting star 6 l c y cui cng b tht bi. Nhng ngi u c gi ln ri cng chu thua. The hammer l kt thc ca t bn tho (sell off).

52

Hnh 5.26 l v d khc m mu hnh shooting star khng to ra khong trng vi thn nn trc. Tuy nhin, n vn l mt tn hiu o chiu quan trng. Mt ln na chng ta hy xem li shooting star trong bi cnh th trng. N l s tht bi khc ti nhng mc gi cao ca qu ba nm 1989. Mu hnh the shooting star nh du s kt thc ca qu trnh tng gi bt u vi mu hnh the hammer.

Hnh 5.27 th hin mu hnh shooting star kinh in, xut hin vo gi u tin ngy 29/5. S gim gi tip theo dng li vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi vo ngy 4/6

Hnh 5.28 minh ha hai mu hnh shooting star bo trc rt ngha xu hng gim gi sau s xut hin ca chng. 53

Hnh 5.29 ch ra rng mu hnh shooting star cng l mt s tht bi mc gi cao thng mi nm 1989.

Hnh 5.30 cho thy mt cp ca mu hnh shooting star. Mi ci nh du s kt thc ca xu hng trc . 54

THE INVERTED HAMMER D khng phi l mt mu hnh c ngi sao, chng ta vn cp n mu hnh the inverted hammer trong mc ny v s ging nhau ca n vi mu hnh the shooting star. Hnh 5.31 minh ha mt mu hnh the inverted hammer trng nh mt mu hnh shooting star vi bng trn di v thn nh nm y trong phm vi ca phin giao dch. Nhng trong khi the shooting star l mt mu hnh o chiu nh, th the inverted hammer l mt mu hnh o chiu y. Cng ging nh the hammer, the inverted hammer l mt mu hnh tng gi sau mt xu th gim st.

Quay li biu ng trong hnh 5.27. Xem thn nn u tin ca mu hnh engulfing tng gi ngy 4 thng 6. N c s xut hin tng t nh mu hnh the shooting star (mu ca thn nn khng phi l vn ). Trong v d ny, n xut hin trong thi gian mt xu th gim st v nh vy n tr thnh mt mu hnh the inverted hammer tim nng tng gi. Tht quan trng i s xc nhn tng gi phin sau phin inverted hammer. S xc nhn c th l m phin tip theo trn thn ca the inverted hammer. Khong trng cng ln th s xc nhn cng cao. Mt thn nn trng vi gi c cao hn c th cng l dng khc ca s xc nhn. L do tn hiu tng gi ca the inverted hammer quan trng bi v hot ng gi m mu hnh the inverted hammer xut hin l gim gi. Trong v d hnh 5.27, the inverted hammer c i theo bi mt thn nn tng gi trong phin k tip. Thn nn p ng yu cu xc nhn hot ng ca gi.

55

Trong hnh 5.32, mu hnh shooting star 1 lm th trng du i, v bn cht l chuyn sang dao ng yu t mt xu hng tng mnh m trc . Thn nn en sau shooting star 3 xc nhn mt nh khi n hon thnh mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi. S gim gi bt u vi shooting star 3 chm dt vi mu hnh piercing ngy 27, 28 thng ba. Mu hnh ny to ra nn tng cho mt qu trnh tng gi m kt thc shooting star 4. Quan st v tr xu hng gim gi sau shooting star 4 dng li - mt inverted hammer vo 21 thng t, m c chng minh bi thn nn trng cao hn ca ngy hm sau. Nu thn nn trng ny di hn, th chng ta c th ni c mt mu hnh morning star (thn nn en trc inverted hammer, inverted hammer v thn nn trng sau n to ra mu hnh morning star ny nu nn trng th ba di hn). S vn ng bt u vi inverted hammer y gi ln, cho n khi xut hin shooting star 5.

Hnh 5.33 minh ha nhng v d khc ca inverted hammer. Lu inverted hammer 1 v 2 c xc nhn bi gi c mnh m hn ngy tip theo. iu ny rt quan trng. Inverted hammer 2 tr thnh b phn ca mu hnh the morning star. 56

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 10)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU KHC S hnh thnh ca nhng mu hnh o chiu trong nhng chng 4 v 5 l nhng s o chiu c bo hiu tng i mnh m. Chng ch ra rng nhng ngi u c gi ln chuyn qua t nhng ngi u c gi xung (nh trong cc mu hnh engulfing tng gi, the morning star, hoc mu hnh piercing) hoc nhng ngi u c gi xung c ginh ly quyn iu khin t nhng ngi u c gi ln (nh trong cc mu hnh engulfing gim gi, the evening star, hoc the dark-cloud cover). Chng ny kho st nhiu mu hnh ch bo s o chiu thng thng, nhng khng phi thng xuyn, s o chiu c bo hiu khng mnh m bng. Nhng mu hnh bao gm the harami pattern, tweezers tops v bottoms, belthold, the upside-gap two crows, v counter-attack. Chng ny cng kho st k nhng mu hnh o chiu c bo hiu mnh, bao gm three black crows, three mountains, three rivers, dumpling tops, fry pan bottoms, v tower tops/bottoms. THE HARAMI Mu hnh harami (hnh 6.1) l mt thn nh c bao bc bn trong mt thn di tng i trc . Harami l mt t c ca Nht c ngha l c thai. Thn nn di l nn m v thn nn nh nh a tr hoc bo thai. Mu hnh harami l s nghch o ca mu hnh the engulfing. Trong mu hnh engulfing, mt thn nn di ln t thn nn nh trc . Vi mu hnh harami, mt thn nn nh i theo mt thn nn di khc thng. i vi hai thn nn ca mu hnh engulfing, mu sc ca chng cn phi i lp vi nhau. iu ny khng phi cn thit vi mu hnh harami. Tuy nhin, trong a s cc v d, nhng thn nn trong mu hnh harami cng c mu sc i nhau.

57

S hnh thnh mu hnh harami c th so snh c vi mu hnh ca phng Ty, inside day. Mt mu hnh inside day xut hin khi nhng mc cao v thp trong phm vi di giao dch ca phin trc (xem hnh 6.2). Tuy th, trong khi mt mu hnh inside day phng Ty thng thng c ngh l c t, hoc khng, d bo s quan trng, th mu hnh harami d bo th trng s tch ri xu hng trc . Mu hnh harami thng khng c nhiu ngha bo hiu o chiu quan trng nh cc mu hnh: the hammer, hanging man, hoc engulfing. Vi harami, mt s km hm c tc ng ti th trng. Xu hng trc tc thi cn phi chm dt v th trng s thng i n mt khong lng. i khi, harami c th cnh bo xu hng quan trng thay i, c bit nhng nh ca th trng. Trong minh ha hnh 6.1, mu ca phin th hai l khng quan trng. c tnh quyt nh ca mu hnh ny l phin th hai c thn nh tng i v nm trong thn nn ln trc . Kch thc ca nhng bng nn thng thng khng phi l quan trng vi mu hnh harami hoc harami cross. Mu hnh harami trnh by mt s khc bit v sc khe ca th trng. Sau mt qu trnh tng gi, kh nng tn ti lu di ca thn nn trng di c i theo bi s khng chc chn ca thn nn nh. iu ny cho thy rng hng ln b lm yu i. Do mt s o chiu xu hng c th xy ra. Trong qu trnh gim gi, p lc bn nng n phn nh bi mt thn nn en, di theo sau l s dao ng trong phin tip theo. iu ny c th cnh bo mt s o chiu xu hng khi thn nn nh ca phin th hai l mt s bo ng v sc mnh ca nhng ngi u c gi xung b gim bt. Hnh 6.3 phn bit mt mu hnh harami khc, c gi l harami cross. Mt mu hnh harami cross c mt doji ngy th hai ca mu hnh harami thay v mt thn nh. Mu hnh harami cross, cha ng mt doji, c nhn nhn nh bo hiu mt s o chiu chnh.

Hnh 6.4 minh ha mt xu th tng yu vo ngy 18 thng t. Mu hnh Harami 1 l kt thc ca n v qu trnh selloff bt u vi harami 1 dng li bi harami 2. Harami 3 th hin mt mu hnh harami c th hu ch nh th no d khng c xu hng r rng trc khi mt harami xut hin. Lu rng khng c mt xu hng r rng trong t ngy u tin ca thng nm. Ri harami 3 xut hin vi thn nn trng di, i theo l mt thn nn nh, en (lu mu ca thn nn ngy th hai khng phi l quan trng). D sao, mt thng gia c th s dng mu hnh ny nh mt tn hiu m s vn ng bt u t thn nn trng tht bi. 58

Th trng by gi mt thi im ca s do d, thiu quyt on. Mt s mua bn khng c ngh cho n khi s do d c gii quyt qua mt mc gi ng phin trn mc gi cao ca harami 3. Harami 4 l mt mu hnh c in. Mt xu hng tng r rng vi thn nn trng cao. Thn nn nh tip theo hon thnh harami. Thn nn nh ny cng mang nhng tn hiu o chiu ca mt shooting star (mc d khng phi l mt ngi sao hon ho khi thn nn khng trn thn nn trc). Hnh 6.5 minh ha hai mu hnh harami mu mc. Mi thn nn trong s nhng thn nn ca ngy th hai u rt nh b so vi thn nn di trc . Harami u tin ng mt s thiu sc y ti, harami th hai ng mt s chm dt ca lc bn.

59

Hnh 6.6 minh ha hai thn nn trong mu harami cui thng ba nh du nh ca th trng. t sell off c tip tc cho n khi mu hnh the hammer xut hin ngy 24 thng t. Lu bng ca phin th hai trong harami phn bn ngoi thn nn ca phin trc. iu ny gii thch s quan trng ca mi quan h gia nhng thn nn v khng phi l nhng bng.

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Hnh 6.7 cho thy rng mt s st gim qu mc xy ra sau mu hnh engulfing gim gi, ngy 7, 8 thng nm. Harami nh du s thay i ca mt xu th gim st thnh s dao ng trong mt di hp. Nhng ngi giao dch dng biu trong ngy c th s dng harami trong hnh 6.8 nh mt tn hiu xu hng gim ngy trc c th qua. Trong v d ny, u ngy 17 thng t s gim gi thng ng chm dt v th trng i vo mt khong lng sau mu harami. Harami ny c th c nhng ngi giao dch ngy (day traders) ng/dng lnh bn. Nh bt k mu hnh o chiu y no, harami ny khng loi tr kh nng th trng ly li hng xung ca n.

61

Hnh 6.9 l mt v d tt ca mt xu th gim st mnh chuyn sang thnh mt s dao ng ca gi trong mt dI hp sau s xut hin ca harami. Trong v d ny chng ta thy xu th gim gi tng t ra sao t 54$ xung 48.5$, dng li harami. Sau mt harami, th trng thng thng d i vo trong mt di hp ca gi. Harami Cross Harami bnh thng c mt thn nn cao c i theo bi mt thn nn nh hn. Tuy nhin, khng c quy tc no xem xt nh th no l nh, iu ny tng t nh nhng k thut v biu khc, ph thuc vo ch quan. Nh mt nguyn l chung, thn nn th hai cng nh, mu hnh cng c tnh thuyt phc. iu ny thng ng bi v thn nn cng nh th mu thun trong t tng cng ln v cng c v ging mt s o chiu xu hng. Nh cp, mt doji i trc l mt thn nn di c gi mt harami cross. Harami cross mang nhiu ngha hn hn mt mu harami bnh thng. Harami cross cng nh du nhng y, nhng chng c hiu qu hn nhng nh.

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Hnh 6.10 minh ha qu trnh tng gi t gia thng ba bt ng chm dt khi mu hnh harami cross hnh thnh vo ngy 2, 3 thng t. Hnh 6.11 cho thy khong trng tng gi ln gia thng ging nh la ln, th trng u c gi ln, nhng harami cross ni: khng u c gi ln lc ny. Hnh 6.12 cho thy mt thn nn en ln khc thng i theo l mt doji to ra mt harami cross. Mt phin ging hammer sau doji ca harami cross cng chng minh l mt y.

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64

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 11)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU KHC (tip theo) TWEEZERS TOPS v BOTTOMS Mu hi`nh Tweezers top: trong mt xu hng tng, mt tweezers top c hnh thnh, n bao gm hai hoc nhiu cy nn cng chm nh (c nhng mc gi cao gn nh nhau). Chng c th c to thnh t thn, bng nn, v/hoc doji. Mu hi`nh Tweezers bottom: trong mt xu hng gim gim, mt tweezers bottom c hnh thnh, n bao gm hai hoc nhiu cy nn cng chm y (c nhng mc gi thp gn nh nhau). Chng c th c to thnh t thn, bng nn, v/hoc doji. Chng lm tng thm s chnh xc ca mu hnh khi chng xut hin sau mt s m rng v gi hoc cha ng nhng mu hnh gim gi (cho mt s chiu nh) hoc tng tng gi (cho mt s o chiu y). Hnh 6.13 n 6.18 chi tit ha khi nim ny.

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Hnh 6.19 minh ha tweezer tops v bottoms. Tweezer top c xc nhn khi ngy th hai hon thnh mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Tweezers bottom 1 minh ha mt ngi sao. Lu rng tweezers bottom hai ngy ny l mt ln kim tra thnh cng mu hnh piercing t tun trc . Tweezers bottom 2 l mt tp hp ca hai hammer. S kt hp ca hai ch bo ny (tweezers bottom v hammer) lm c s cho qu trnh tng gi. Hnh 6.20 ch ra rng mc gi thp nht vo ngy 24 thng ging, gn 95$, c kim tra li mt tun sau. S kim tra ny khng nhng thnh cng, m cn to ra mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Hnh 6.21 ch ra rng mt tweezers bottom 2 ngy cng thit lp mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Hnh 6.22 minh ha mt hanging man i theo mt thn nn trng di. Nhng mc cao ca c hai tun ny (cng nh tun tip theo) gn nh c cng gi tr, nh vy to ra mt tweezers top. Hai thn nn u cng l mt mu hnh harami. Hnh 6.23 ch ra mt bin th ca mt mu hnh evening star pht trin cui thng su. Thn nn trng tr thnh l mt vng chng c nh c chng minh bi hanging man ca tun sau. The hanging man chm mc gi cao ca tun trc v rt xung. iu ny to ra mt tweezers top.

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Thng tm 1987, nhng nh, nh trong hnh 6.24, thn nn trng di i theo bi mt doji hnh thnh mt tweezers top m nh gi nh s khng c ca tun tip theo. Khng k tweezers top, mt doji sau mt thn nn trng di mc gi cao th nguy him. The BELT HOLD

69

The belt hold l mt thn nn ring l c th l tng hoc gim gi. The belt hold tng gi l thn nn trng mnh m m m phin mc gi thp (hoc vi mt bng di rt nh) v tng gi trong phn cn li ca phin. Trong hnh 6.25, th trng ti mt vng gi thp v belt hold tng gi di xut hin, th n d bo mt xu hng tng. The belt hold gim gi (hnh 6.26) l thn nn en di m mc cao ca phin v sau gim sut phin. Nu gi ang mc cao, th s xut hin ca belt hold gim gi l mt s o chiu nh. cao ca thn nn the belt hold cng ln th tn hiu ca n cng c ngha.

Hnh 6.27 cho thy belt hold 1 bo hiu mt s tng gi. Belt hold 2 xc nhn mt tweezers bottom khi n gp li mc gi thp ca tun trc. Mt s tng gi xy ra sau m chm dt vi mt mu hnh harami vi tun sau. Mu hnh shooting star l du hiu u tin ca s rc ri trong hnh 6.28. Phin tip theo the belt hold gim gi xc nhn mt nh. Hnh 6.29 l v d ca mu hnh the belt hold gim gi gia thng 2. Qu trnh sell off xy ra sau rt r rng, nhng ngn gn khi mt mu hnh morning star tng gi ch ra mt y.

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71

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 12)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU KHC (tip theo) UPSIDE-GAP TWO CROWS Mt mu hnh upside-gap two crows c minh ha trong hnh 6.30. Upside gap l khong trng to bi gi m ca thn nn en nh v gi ng ca thn nn trng di i trc n. Hai thn nn en l nhng crows trong mu hnh ny. N tng t nh vic nhng con qu en lin tc bo im xu. Da vo s so snh, cho ta bit mu hnh ny l mu hnh gim gi. Mt upside gap two crows l tng l gi m ca thn nn en th hai cao hn gi m ca thn nn en th nht v gi ng ca n thp hn gi ng ca thn nn en th nht. Nhn t cn bn ca mu hnh gim gi ny nh sau: th trng ang trong mt xu th tng, gi m cao hn v to ra mt khong trng tng gi. nh mi khng c duy tr v th trng hnh thnh mt thn nn en. Nhng nhng ngi mua vn nm quyn kim sot bi v gi ng ca thn nn en ny vn cao hn gi ng ca thn nn trc . Phin giao dch th ba xut hin mt du hiu gim gi vi mt nh mi khc v s tht bi trong vic duy tr nh ny cho n khi ng phin. Tiu cc hn, l phin giao dch ny kt thc thp hn mc ng phin trc . Nu th trng l rt mnh, ti sao nh mi li khng c duy tr v ti sao th trng li kt thc mc thp hn? l cu hi m nhng ngi mua ang t hi mnh. Cu tr li l c l th trng khng mnh nh h tng. Nu phin tip theo (phin th t) th trng khng duy tr mc cao th gi s gim xung thp hn.

C mt mu hnh lin quan m thot nhn c nt g ging vi upside gap two crows. Khc bit ch, l mu hnh tng gi trong th trng tng. N l mt trong vi mu hnh tip din (s c trnh by trong chng 7). N c tn gi l mu hnh mat-hold. Ba thn nn u tin tng t mu hnh upside gap two crows nhng c mt nn en khc theo sau . Nu nn tip theo l trng v nm trn bng trn hoc kt thc trn mc cao nht ca nn en cui cng th vic mua vo c m bo. Mu hnh ny c th c 2, 3 hoc 4 nn en. C 2 mu hnh upside gap two crows v mat hold tng i him xy ra.

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Hnh 6.32 l mt v d in hnh ca mu hnh upside gap two crows. Vo u thng 2, 2 crows nm trn mt nn trng di. Mu hnh ny l s kt thc ca t dch chuyn bt u mt thng trc .

Trong hnh 6.33, chng ta c th thy vo ngy 27/11, ng c y ln cao vi mt nn trng di. nh mi trong 2 phin giao dch sau khng c duy tr. Hai nn en v nn trng trc hnh thnh mu hnh upside gap two crows. Th trng tip tc gim cho n khi mu hnh doji star v tweezers bottom hnh thnh nn tng ca mt y mi. 73

Hnh 6.34 l mt v d kinh in ca mu hnh him, mat hold. Mt nn trng di theo sau l mt nn en vi mt khong trng tng gi. Hai nn en nh khc theo sau nn trng hon thnh mu hnh mat hold. Lu l mu hnh khng khc nhiu so vi mu hnh upside gap two crows (nh rng mat hold c th c 3, thay v ch 2 nn en nh nh mu hnh upside gap two crows. S khc nhau chnh l s xut hin ca nn trng vo lc kt thc i mu hnh thnh tng gi. V vy, vi mu hnh upside gap two crows, ti ngh bn nn t im dng l trn im cao nht ca thn nn en th hai. THREE BLACK CROWS Upside gap two crows c 2 thn nn en. Nu c 3 thn nn en gim lin tip th gi l mu hnh three black crows (xem hnh 6.35). Three black crows ch ra nhng gi thp hn nu n xut hin mc gi cao hoc sau mt t tng gi. Three black crows i khi cng c gi l three winged crows. Ngi Nht c mt cu: Tin xu c cnh. iu ny c th dng m ch m hnh three winged crows. Three black crows, nh tn gi ca n, c 3 nn en. Ging vi cnh mt by qu en trn cy ang ch bo ci cht, mu hnh three crows ng gim gi. Ba nn ny s ng ca ti mc thp nht trong phin, hoc l gn . Gi m ca cng nm trong khong thn nn ca phin giao dch trc . Cc nh phn tch cng thch thn ca nn u tin trong 3 nn crows nm di mc cao nht ca nn trng trc.

74

Hnh 6.36 l v d in hnh ca mu hnh three crows. Vo gia thng 6, mu hnh three black crows xut hin. Mt mu hnh three black crows khc cng xut hin vo gia thng 7. Mu hnh three black crows thng 7 l s tht bi ca nh t three black crows thng 6, gn mc 33000. N to thnh mu hnh 2 nh (double top).

Hnh 6.37 l mt v d khc ca mu hnh ny. Ngy 15/6 l ngy u tin ca 3 nn crows. Mt iu th v ca 3 nn crows ny l gi m ca ca nn th 2 v th 3 nm ti, hoc rt gn gi ng ca ca nn en u tin. N gn nh l mu hnh three crows chun. N c coi l mu hnh c bit gim gi, nhng l mu hnh rt him. 75

THE COUNTERATTACK counterattack Counterattack c hnh thnh khi mt thn nn c mu i lp so vi nn trc c cng mc gi ng ca. Cch tt nht m t mu hnh ny l quan st hnh 6.38 v 6.39. Hnh 6.38 l mt v d ca counterattack tng gi. Mu hnh ny xut hin trong thi k gi gim. Thn nn u tin ca mu hnh l thn nn en di. Phin tip theo m ca mc rt thp. Ti im , ngi bn ang vn rt tin tng vo th trng. Ngi mua sau c s thay i bng cch y gi ln, ng phin mc ng ca phin trc . Xu hng gim gi b hm li.

Counterattack tng gi c so snh vi mu hnh piercing tng gi. Nu bn cn nh mu hnh piercing cng c hai nn nh counterattack. im khc nhau chnh l mu hnh counterattack gi khng thng di chuyn trong khong gia thn nn trc . N ch quay li n gi ng ca ca phin . Nn th hai ca mu hnh piercing th giao dch thc s trong khong thn ca nn en. Do , mu hnh piercing tng gi l mu hnh o chiu y quan trng hn counterattack tng gi. Tuy nhin, qua nhng v d sau y, mu hnh counterattack cng cn c lu tm. Mu hnh counterattack tng gi cng gn ging vi mu hnh in-neck gim gi (xem chng 4, hnh 4.31). S khc nhau l nn trng ca mu hnh counterattack th di hn nn trng ca mu hnh inneck. Ni cch khc, vi mu counterattack, th trng m ca mc thp hn rt nhiu v sau quay ngc tr li n gi ng ca ca phin trc trong khi mu in-neck m ca mc thp hn mt cht v sau tng tr li gn mc ng ca trc . Hnh 6.39 minh ho mu hnh counterattack gim gi. l mu hnh o chiu nh. Nn u tin, l mt thn nn trng di. Ri thn nn sau th m ca mc cao hn. Sau , ngi bn bt u u tranh v y gi gim xung gi ng ca ngy trc . Nhng ngi mua lc quan lc m ca ca ngy th hai c l nhn ra sai lm khi ng ca.

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Mu hnh counterattack tng gi c lin h vi mu hnh piercing, nh vy mu hnh counterattack gim gi cng c s lin h vi mu hnh dark-cloud cover. Mu hnh counterattack gim gi, ging nh darkcloud cover, m ca trn mc cao nht ca ngy trc . Khng ging vi dark-cloud cover, gi ng ca ca counterattack khng nm trong khong thn ca nn trng trc . Do , dark-cloud cover a ra tn hiu o chiu nh mnh hn mu hnh counterattack. Mt s xem xt quan trng ca nhng mu hnh counterattack ny l nu phin giao dch th hai m ca rt cao (trong trng hp bearish counterattack) hoc rt thp (trong trng hp bullish counterattack) so vi gi ng ca ca phin trc . iu c ngha l vo lc m ca ca ngy th hai trong mu hnh ny, th trng s dch chuyn mnh m theo hng ca xu hng chnh. Ngc nhin qu. n lc ng ca, n di chuyn tr li khng lm thay i gi ca phin trc . Vo ngy 29/5, trong hnh 6.40, thn nn trng di cng c xu hng tng gi t s vn ng bt u vo tun trc. chc chn, vo ngy 30/5, th trng c th tng ln trc t lc m ca. Tuy nhin, n gim xung t lc trong sut thi gian cn li ca phin giao dch. n lc ng ca, th trng gim tr li v khng lm thay i mc ng ca ngy trc . Hai phin to thnh mu hnh counterattack.

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Hnh 6.41 ch ra qu trnh tng gi kt thc vi mu hnh counterattack gim gi. Hnh 6.42 ch ra rng s gim gi lin tip v mnh m bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi vo thng 3/1989 kt thc vi mu hnh counterattack tng gi vi thng sau. Hy nh rng tt c cc ch bo o chiu xu hng, nh mu hnh counterattack ch cho bn rng xu hng s thay i. N khng c ngha l gi s o ngc xu hng. y l v d mu hnh o chiu tng gi ch bo xu hng gim gi trc kt thc v chuyn sang i ngang (sideways) nh th no. V d ny cng ch ra rng gi ng ca khng nht thit ng nht to nn mu hnh chun. Trong hnh 6.43, bn c th thy gi gim nh th no t mt shooting star n khi mu hnh counterattack tng gi xut hin. Mt im khng nh khc v mu hnh ny l n l mt phin giao dch m ca di mc h tr cui thng 7, u thng 8 nhng, d sao mc y mi ny khng c duy tr. N ch ra rng ngi bn khng th kim sot c th trng.

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Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 13)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU KHC (tip theo) THREE MOUNTAINS V THREE RIVERS C mt nhm mu hnh hnh thnh nh di hn v hnh thnh y di hn bao gm three mountains, three rivers, three Buddha top, inverted three Buddha, dumpling tops, fry pan bottoms v tower tops v bottoms. Tng t vi mu hnh 3 nh ca phng Ty, ngi Nht c mu hnh three mountain tops (xem hnh 6.44). N c cho l th hin nh chnh. Nu th trng gim ngc tr li t nh 3 ln hoc to nn 3 s c gng nh, n c xem nh l mu hnh three mountain top. nh ca ni cui cng c th c khng nh vi ch bo hnh nn gim gi, v d l mt doji hay l dark-cloud cover.

Nu ni gia ca three mountain top l ni cao nht, l trng hp c bit ca three mountain, gi l three Buddha top (xem hnh 6.45). L do ca tn gi ny l bi v trong cc cha Pht gio, c mt tng to ln ngi gia 2 tng nh. N rt ging vi mu hnh u v hai vai. Mc d mu hnh three Buddha top rt ging mu hnh u v hai vai ca phng Ty, l thuyt v mu hnh three Buddha ca ngi Nht c s dng hng trm nm nay trc khi mu hnh u v hai vai c bit M. (Mu hnh u v hai vai lu nht m ti bit M l ca Richard Schabacker vo nhng nm 1930. Vi nhng ngi c cc cun sch ca Edwards v Magee, Phn tch k thut trong xu hng ca c phiu, rt nhiu phn trong cun sch ny u da trn nghin cu ca Schabacker. Shabacker l b v ca Edward). l l do m nhng ngi phn tch th trng n t phng ng v phng Ty u pht trin t mu hnh ging nhau ny nh th no. Tm l th trng th ging nhau trn ton th gii, hoc, theo mt tc ng ca ngi Nht: mt con chim th ht cng mt ging ging nhau khp mi ni. 79

Mu hnh three river bottom (xem hnh 6.46) l s ngc li ca mu hnh three mountain top. N xut hin khi th trng chm y v bt ln 3 ln. Mu hnh tng ng vi mu hnh u v hai vai y ca phng Ty (hay cn gi l mu hnh u v hai vai o ngc) c gi l mu hnh sa i three river bottom hay l mu hnh three Buddha inverted. (Xem hnh 6.47). Hnh 6.48 l mt biu khc thng m trong c nhiu s biu th khc nhau ca mu hnh three mountain top. Chng c biu th nh sau: 1. Vng 1, 2 v 3 to nn mu hnh three Buddha bi v ni gia cao nht trong ba nh. nh ca ni th ba l mt mu hnh evening star. t selloff bt ngun t ni th ba kt thc bi mu hnh morning star vo thng 6. 2. Ba nh gi nh xut hin A, B v C. Mt s nh phn tch Nht Bn xem ba ni nh l ba s n lc t ti nh cao mi, ging nh ba sng tng. Sng tng th ba c cho l to thnh nh mi cao hn. Ba ln y ln mc cao mi v sau ba ln tht bi trong vic y ln, ngi mua u hng. nh ca ni th ba (C), l mt mu hnh evening star. 3. Trong khi mt s nh phn tch Nht Bn coi ba giai on tng gi nh ba ni, ngi khc coi ba ni nh vic lp li t test ca nhng mc gi nh ging nhau. N l nhng g pht trin ti vng C, D v E. Vng D ch bo nh bi dark-cloud cover, E ch bo vi haning man theo sau bi doji.

80

Mi nh trong 3 nh ca mu hnh three mountains trong hnh 6.49 u c minh ho bi nhng bng chng l cc mu hnh nn gim gi. Vng 1 l mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi, vng 2 l mu hnh hanging man theo sau bi 2 doji, vng 3 l mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi khc. T khi ni trung tm to nn mc gi cao nht trong hnh 6.50, mu hnh ny tr thnh mu hnh three Buddha. Thn nn en nm trong thn nn trng trc to nn mu hnh harami ti nh ca nh ni gia.

81

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Trong hnh 6.51 c mt mu hnh inverted three Buddha vo nm 1988 (n gn ging vi mu hnh u v hai vai o ngc). Mi y trong s ba y A, B v C u c ch bo bi cc mu hnh nn tng gi. Ti A, mt mu hammer xut hin. Ti B, mt hammer khc xut hin v n l mt phn ca mu hnh morning star (s vn ng ca morning star kt thc vi dark-cloud cover). Ti C, mu hnh piercing xut hin (n cng gn nh l mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi). Mt khi ngi mua y gi ln cao qua mt khong trng tng gi vt ng khng c c chiu hng nghing i xung, xu hng c th quay ngc ln. Khong trng c cc nh phn tch Nht bn gi l windows. (Windows s c trnh by di hn trong chng tip theo ca mu hnh tip tc xu hng). Bi v ti ni ti khong trng trong chng ny, ngi c cn lu rng ngi Nht coi khong trng (windows) nh l mu hnh tip tc xu hng. Nh vy, mt khong trng cao hn l du hiu tng gi v mt khong trng thp hn l du hiu gim gi. Trong v d ny, khong trng cao hn ng ch s tng gi. Hot ng ca gi t qu III nm 1989 n qu I nm 1990 to nn mu hnh three Buddha top.

mu hnh three river bottoms cung cp du hiu mua vo, cn phi kt thc vi mt nn trng trn nh ca mu hnh , xem hnh 6.52. Trong v d ny, n c th cao hn mc 102$. Lu rng mc 102$ ny sau chuyn thnh mc h tr trong t selloff vo thng 3 nh th no. S quan trng ca s 3 trong k thut hnh nn iu nhn mnh v 3 nh v 3 y ca ngi Nht c l ch ra s quan trng ca s 3 trong vn ho Nht. Chng ti, nhng ngi phng Ty, c th khng cn thit khi xem xt c g c bit xung quanh 3 nh. Vi chng ti, c l 2 nh, hoc him hoi hn, nh m c test 4 ln th cng quan trng nh vi 3 nh. Nhng ngi Nht th ngh khc. V c l h c th ch cho chng ta thy mt kha cnh ca phn tch phng Ty m chng ti khng nhn ra. 83

C rt nhiu mu hnh v khi nim k thut da trn con s 3 trong k thut phn tch ca ngi phng Ty cng nh trong biu hnh nn. Sau y l mt on trch t cun sch ca John Murphy Phn tch k thut th trng k hn: Tht th v khi nhn ra rng con s 3 c s dng trong nghin cu phn tch k thut nh th no v n ng vai tr rt quan trng trong rt nhiu phng php k thut. V d, the fan principle s dng 3 ng, a s th trng tng v th trng gim u c 3 pha, l thuyt Down v l thuyt sng Elliott, c 3 kiu khong trng, mt s trong rt nhiu mu hnh o chiu thng dng, nh 3 nh, u v hai vai, c 3 nh ni bt, c 3 mc khc nhau ca xu hng (chnh, th hai v ph) v c 3 hng (tng, gim, sideway), trong s cc mu hnh cng c xu hng c bn, c 3 kiu tam gic nh tam gic i xng, tam gic hng ln, tam gic hng xung, c 3 ngun thng tin chnh: gi, khi lng v giao dch tim nng. Bt c l do no, con s 3 ng vai tr rt quan trng trong ton b cc lnh vc ca phn tch k thut. John Murphy tt nhin l tham kho ti phn tch k thut phng Ty. Nhng trong cu ca ng y con s 3 ng vai tr rt ni bt th c bit ng vi k thut hnh nn ca Nht Bn. Vo u thi k Nht Bn hin i, con s 3 n cha nhng s kt hp y huyn b. C cu ni 3 ln may mn biu th lng tin ny. Song song vi iu ny, trong khi con s 3 th hin s may mn th con s 4 c xem nh l mt im bo g. L do cho iu ny rt d dng xc nhn, trong pht m ca ngi Nht, con s 4 v t cht l ging nhau. Vi iu c bit v s xut hin thng xuyn ca con s 3 trong biu hnh nn: c 3 nn trng bo trc mt s tng gi, im bo three black crows cnh bo s gim gi, nhng mu hnh ch bo nh bao gm three mountains top v cc s bin i ca n, mu hnh three Buddha, three river bottoms, three windows (xem chng 7) ch ra phm vi ca chuyn ng, three methods (xem chng 7), v mu hnh 3 thn nn bao gm morning v evening star. Ngi Nht cng tin rng nu 1 window (trong th trng tng gi) khng c ng li trong 3 ngy th th trng s tng mnh.

84

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 14)

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU KHC (tip theo) DUMPlING TOPS V FRY PAN BOTTOMS Mu hnh dumpling top (xem hnh 6.53) thng c nhng thn nh ging nh th trng hnh thnh mt mu li. Khi th trng c khong trng gim gi, n khng nh s xut hin ca dumpling top. Mu hnh ny ging vi mu hnh rounded top ca phng Ty. Dumpling top cn c mt khong trng gim gi chng minh n l nh. Mu hinh fry pan bottom (xem hnh 6.54) cho thy mt th trng gim gi v hot ng gi hnh thnh mt ng lm v sau l mt khong trng tng gi. N cng ging vi s xut hin ca mu hnh rounded bottom ca phng Ty. Nhng mu hnh fry pan bottom Nht Bn cn phI c mt window trong mt chuyn ng tng gi khng nh y. nh dng vm v nhng thn nn nh nh nh ca th trng biu th mu hnh dumpling top c thy trong hnh 6.55. Lu mt doji ti nh th trng vi window hng xung gip khng nh mu hnh dumpling top nh th no. Thc t, mt nn en sau window l mt mu hnh black belt hold l l do khc cho mt xu hng gim.

85

Hnh 6.56 th hin mt mu hnh fry pan bottom c y thp vo 27 v 28 thng t hnh thnh mt mu hnh harami. Mt window vo u thng 5 sm chng minh rng mu hnh fry pan bottom hon thnh. 86

Hnh 6.57 minh ha mt mu hnh fry pan bottom rt p. S xc nhn tng gi n nn th 2. Mc d th trng khng to nn mt window gia nn 1 v nn 2, thc t l nh ca nn 1 l 1000$ v y ca nn 2 l 997$, c ngha l n ch thiu 4$ c mt window. Thm vo , nn 2 l mt mu white belt hold rt mnh. TOWER TOPS V TOWER BOTTOMS

Mu hnh tower top l mu hnh o chiu nh. N xut hin khi th trng ang trong xu hng tng v sau mt nn trng mnh (hoc 1 lot cc nn trng) xut hin. Th trng tng ln sau chm dn v bt u gim. Tower top c hon thin vi s xut hin ca 1 hoc nhiu thn nn en di (xem hnh 6.58). Nn di ca mu hnh ny tng ng vi cc to thp cao - l l do ca tn gi ca mu hnh. Mu hnh tower bottom pht trin t mc gi thp. Sau mt hoc nhiu nn en di l mt khong dng ngn hn. Sau mt hoc nhiu nn trng di xut hin. N to ra mt y mi c hnh thp c 2 bn (xem hnh 6.59), gm nn di theo hng gim v nn di theo hng tng. 87

Hnh 6.60 ch ra rng mt nhm cc nn trng mnh xut hin t qu I n qu II nm 1987. Sau l mt lot cc nn en di xut hin. Nn trng cao to nn phn bn tri ca ci thp trong khi nn di en to nn phn bn phi. Ba nn en cng l mu hnh three black crows.

88

Hnh 6.61 minh ho 2 mu hnh: tower bottom v mu hnh o chiu y rt him m ngi ta t cp n, c tn l unique three river bottom. u tin, chng ta s quan st mu hnh tower bottom. Mt nn en di vo ngy 28/8, sau l sideways vi mt vi nn nh, v mt nn trng di vo ngy 7/9 to nn mu hnh tower bottom. Gi tng bc gim xung n ngy 28/8 to phn bn tri thp v s ln gi mnh, bt u vo ngy 7/9 to nn phn bn phi thp. Lu n 3 nn 1, 2, 3 vo ngy 28/8 n 30/8. l mu hnh v cng him, unique three river bottom (xem hnh 6.62). N c mi quan h rt gn vi mu hnh evening star. Unique three river bottom l mu hnh o chiu y. Thn nn u tin ca n l mt nn en m rng, thn nn th hai l mt nn en m gi ng ca ca n cao hn gi ng ca ca nn u tin, v nn th ba l mt nn trng rt nh. Nn cui cng ny ch ra mt th trng m p lc bn khng cn.

Thut ng tng t vi mu hnh tower reversal trong phn tch k thut phng Ty l mu hnh o chiu spike, hoc V. Trong mu hnh o chiu spike, th trng trong xu th mnh v sau bt ng o ngc sang mt xu th mi. Tower top v tower bottom cng tng t vi dumpling top v fry pan bottom. S khc nhau chnh gia chng l tower c nn di trc v sau khi th trng o chiu cn dumpling top v fry pan bottom c window. Tower thng thng c nhng nn hay thay i hn dumpling top hay fry pan bottom. Khng nn lo lng v vic liu nh l tower top hay dumpling top, hoc liu y kia l tower bottom hay fry pan. Tt c nhng mu hnh ny u c xem nh l nhng mu hnh o chiu chnh.

89

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 15)

NHNG MU HNH TIP DIN a s ch bo hnh nn l o chiu xu th. Tuy nhin cng c nhm nhng mu hnh hnh nn l mu hnh ch bo tip tc xu th. Ngi Nht c cu: C thi gian mua, thi gian bn v thi gian ngh ngi. Nhiu mu hnh ch ra thi gian ngh ca th trng, mt s x hi trc khi tip tc xu hng trc . S hnh thnh mu hnh tip din c gii thiu trong chng ny bao gm windows (v nhng mu hnh c windows), rising v falling three methods v three white soldier. WINDOWS Nh gii thiu gn y, ngi Nht c bit thch khong trng hay cn gi l window. Trong khi ngi phng Ty ni in vo khong trng th ngi Nht ni ng ca s. Trong phn ny, ti s gii thch nhng khi nim c bn ca window v sau s khm ph nhng mu hnh khc c cha window (khong trng), bao gm khong trng tasuki, gapping plays v side by side white lines.

Windows l khong trng gia gi ca phin giao dch trc v phin giao dch hin ti. Hnh 7.1 th hin mt window c hnh thnh trong xu th tng. C mt khong trng gia bng trn ca phin giao dch trc v bng di ca phin giao dch ny. Window trong xu hng gim c trnh by trong hnh 7.2. N ch ra khng c hot ng ca gi trong khong bng di ca ngy trc vi bng trn ca ngy hin ti. N gi cc nh phn tch Nht Bn i theo hng ca window. Window cng tr thnh vng khng c v h tr. V vy, mt window trong s tng gi ng mt s ln gi v sau. Window ny cng l mc h tr trong s iu chnh gim ngc tr li. Nu mt s iu chnh gim tr li ng window v sc p bn ra tip tc sau s ng ca window ny, xu hng tng gi trc mt hiu lc. Ging nh vy, window trong th trung gim gi ng nhng mc gi cn thp hn na. Bt c s tng gi ngc tr li u gp phi mc khng c ca window ny. Nu window b ng v s tng gi sau khi ng window vn tip tc, xu th gim kt thc.

90

Phn tch k thut truyn thng ca ngi Nht khng nh rng s iu chnh s tr li n vng window. Ni cch khc, n gn ging mt t test vng open window. Nh vy, trong mt xu hng tng, c th s dng mt t iu chnh gim tr li n window l vng mua vo. Trng thi mua vo cn phi b qua v bn khng cn c cn nhc nu nh p lc bn vn tip tc sau khi ng window. Chin lc ngc li c th c m bo vi window trong xu th gim.

Chng ta quan st window 1 v 2 hnh 7.3 gia mt s tng gi bt ngun t mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Mt shooting star gim gi xut hin sau window 2. Ngy tip sau shooting star, th trng m ca mc thp v ng window (tc l lp kn khong trng). Nh rng khi nim iu chnh s quay tr li window, v khng c g ngc nhin khi c s iu chnh gim quay li vng window. Nu window b lp kn v p lc bn vn tip tc, n bo hiu s kt thc ca xu hng tng. iu ny khng xy ra. Lc bn gim dn khi window c ng li. Thm vo , ngng h tr c thit lp ti window 1 c gi. Trong tun 20/2, th trng giao dch rt yu. Ri sau n retest mc h tr window 2. Sau t test thnh cng ny, th trng c y ln cao v m ra window 3. N l mt window quan trng bi v n th hin mt khong trng trn mc khng c 1.10$. Mc khng c c 1.10$, mt khi b ph v s tr thnh mc h tr. Thm vo mc h tr ny ti window gn vng 1.10$, bn s c 2 l do tin tng 1.10$ cung cp mt ngng h tr chc chn. Trong sut thng 3, vng ny, thc vy, l mt ngng h tr rt chc chn cho nhng ngi mua. Ngi Nht tin tng window s c nhng s ch c bit nu n xut hin t mt vng m gi dao ng trong khong hp, hay t nh mi. Xem hnh 7.4. u thng 3, window trn 0.15$ l s ph v quan trng trn vng m gi dao ng trong khong hp trong sut mt thng. V th, c s h tr kp window gn mc 0.15$.

91

u tin l window, v th hai l mc khng c c tr thnh mc h tr mi. Lu mc h tr chc chn, window ny c s dng cho vi thng sau . Ngy 2 v 3/4 xut hin harami. N ch ra xu hng trc , trong trng hp ny l xu hng gim, sp kt thc. Mu hnh engulfing tng gi c hnh thnh vi ngy sau . Vo ngy 16/4, mu hnh inverted hammer xut hin. Tt c cc mu hnh ny u xut hin gn mc h tr ca window, ti 0.15$.

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Trong hnh 7.5, vo thng 3 nm 1988, mu hnh engulfing tng gi bo trc mt s dch chuyn. Mt window xut hin trong qu trnh vn ng. S vn ng tip tc cho n khi xut hin mu hnh counterattack gim gi. Window gi mc h tr trong 5 tun nhng nhng t bn tho lin tc sau khi window c ng kt thc xu hng tng gi. n y, tiu im ca phn ny l s dng window nh vng khng c hoc h tr v nh l mt ch bo tip din. C cch s dng khc. Mt window, c bit nu n c to thnh vi mt thn nn en nh t mc thp ca vng gi b thu hp c th ch ra mt s ph v v tng gi. Hnh 7.6 minh ho nguyn l ny. Trong sut thng 2, gi b km trong mt vng tng i hp. Gia ngy 24 v 25/2, mt window tng gi nh xut hin vi mt thn nn en gim nh. Window ny c khng nh nh mt mc h tr phin giao dch sau . Vo phin giao dch 26/2 th trng khng ch duy tr window nh mt mc h tr m cn to nn mt phin giao dch rt mnh, nn trng di vi gi m ca l gi thp nht, l mt mu hnh belt hold tng gi, v gi ng ca l mc cao nht.

Mt window rng xut hin vo gia thng 1 hnh 7.7. T cui thng 1 n cui thng 2 c rt nhiu s iu chnh tng tr li vng window. Tt c cc s vn ng u ngn khi n ch n c gn mc khng c c to ra bi window. Hy quan st Dow hnh 7.8. S sp ca nm 1987 to nn window vng 2,150 - 2,200. Hai tiu chun cn thit ni rng xu hng gim gi qua. u tin l window ln b lp kn. Tip na s tip tc ca lc mua khi m window b lp. Nhng tiu chun ny ta gp c u nm 1989. Hnh 7.9 l mt v d khc ca window vi vai tr l mc khng c. Window hp 1 vo cui thng 5 ng s tip tc ca xu th gim. N cng tr thnh khng c trong vi tun sau . Window 2 a ra c hi nhn mnh s quan trng ca xu hng. Cc cng ty kinh doanh bt ng sn ni rng 3 yu t quan trng ca bt ng sn l v tr, v tr v v tr. din t iu ny, 3 kha cnh quan trng nht ca th trng l xu hng, xu hng v xu hng. y, trong hnh 7.9, chng ta u nhn thy mt th trng m xu hng chnh l v hng nam. 93

Trong iu kin ny, mt mu hnh morning star hin ra. Bn c mua khng? Khng, bi v xu hng chnh l gim. Mua tr li mt phn lnh bn ra lc trc l hp l trong trng hp ny. Khi no th c th mua vo trong th trng ny? Trong trng hp ny, nu th trng y ln trn mc 11.64$ v lc mua vo vn tip tc sau mc ny. l bi v gia thng 7, th trng hnh thnh nn window 2. nh ca window l mc 11.64$. Cho n khi ngi mua c kh nng chng t sc mnh ca h bng vic y gi ln trn window ny, lc mi mua. Mua vo sm hn c th b xem xt l chin lc c ri ro cao mc d xut hin morning star. Morning star ng vai tr nh mc h tr trong t test mc thp ca n vi ngy sau khi n hnh thnh. Tuy vy, sau khi tip tc c gng trong 1 tun, ngi mua tht bi trong vic duy tr sc mnh ca mnh ng window 2. N ni vi chng ta rng s vn ng mi ny khng thch hp. Tinh thn ca vn ny l vi biu hnh nn, hoc vi bt k cng c k thut no khc, u phi c xem xt trong hon cnh ca xu hng chnh.

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 hnh 7.10, chng ta thy th trng di chuyn xung pha Nam (gim) sau hanging man thng 9 v thn nn en nhn chm n. Window vo cui thng 9 bo hiu s tip tc gim gi. Window b lp kn, nhng lc mua th nhanh chng bin mt bi s xut hin ca mu hnh shooting star. y l 3 window c bn lun hnh 7.11. Window 1 l mt window trong xu th gim gi t thng 3 nm 1989. N tr thnh mc khng c cho vi tun sau . Window 2 l mt window gim gi khc v n c ngha l sc p bn ra nhiu hn gim xung. Mt nn trng di tun sau window to nn mu hnh engulfing tng gi. N l du hiu u tin ca y. Tun tip theo, th trng ng ca mc cao hn rt nhiu so vi window. N cung cp mt l do khc tin rng sc bn cn. Window 3 l window trong s vn ng ng tng gi mnh hn na. Window ny b lp y vo tun th 2 ca thng 10 nhng khng phi mua vo nh vic mua vo y gi ln cao hn v trong qu trnh hnh thnh nn hammer. Bnh thng hammer th quan trng nhng ch trong xu hng gim (khi chng l tn hiu o chiu y). Trong trng hp ny, n tr nn quan trng bi v n phn chiu mt t test mc h tr ca window. Nu th trng tip tc xung thp hn sau hammer ny, xu hng tng c th chm dt.

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Hnh 7.12 ch ra mt lot 3 window. Window 1 tr thnh mc h tr khi th trng bn tho vi ngy sau khi window xut hin. Window 2 kt thc t dch chuyn mt thng sau . Window 3 vn gi mc cao nht ca n trong sut qu trnh vn ng ca cc tun tip theo. Mt iu th v khc l s vn ng thng 9 m bt u t y sau window 2, c nh s t ngy 1 n 8, to nn 8 nh mi. Theo l thuyt hnh nn, sau 8 n 10 nh hay y mi, m khng c bt c s iu chnh no, th mt s iu chnh quan trng s din ra. Mi nh mi hay y mi trong chuyn ng c ngi Nht gi l k lc nh mi hay k lc y mi. V th, ngi Nht s gi l 10 nh hoc y k lc, c ngha l mt lot 10 nh cao nht hoc y thp nht. Nu l 8 nh mi m khng c s iu chnh c ngha, ngi Nht ngh ti th trng nh cu thnh ng: d dy y 80%. iu th v v biu vng ny l c 8 k lc nh. iu ny cnh bo rng nh rt gn. Thc t l sau 8 k lc nh ny, th trng chm vng khng c c to ra bi window 2 v l tn hiu mnh rt thn trng khi mua vo trong thi im th trng ny.

Con s 3 b n tuy vy cng c s xut hin khc trong hnh 7.13. Phn tch k thut truyn thng ca ngi Nht cho l sau 3 windows tng hoc gim, c hi ln cho nh (trong trng hp 3 window xu th tng) hoc y (trong trng hp 3 window l xu th gim) l rt gn, c bit nu mt mu hnh o chiu (nh doji, piercing, dark-cloud cover) xut hin sau khong trng th 3. y ta thy nhng mu hnh hanging man sau window th 3. Trong phn tip theo, chng ta s ni n cc mu hnh tip din m window l mt phn trong nhng mu hnh . N bao gm upward v downward gapping tasuki, the high v low price gapping play, v the gapping side-by-side white lines. 98

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 16)

NHNG MU HNH TIP DIN ( tip theo ) UPWARD V DOWNWARD-GAP TASUKI Upward Gapping Tasuki (hnh 7.14) l mt mu hnh tip din khc. Th trng trong xu hng tng gi. Mt thn nn trng c khong trng cao hn so vi nn trc v theo sau bi mt thn nn en. Gi m ca ca thn nn en nm trong thn ca nn trng v ng ca di thn nn trng. ng ca ca ngy c thn nn en l du hiu mua vo. Nu th trng lp y khong trng (ng window), v p lc bn vn cn mnh th xu hng tng ca upward-gap tasuki mt gi tr. Nhng khi nim ngc li cng ng i vi downward-gap tasuki trong xu hng gim gi (hnh 7.15). Thn ca hai cy nn trong tasuki gap nn tng ng v kch c. C hai dng ca tasuki gap ny u rt him.

99

Hnh 7.16 cho v d v mt upside-gap tasuki. Trong tun cui ca thng 9, th trng to ra mt khong trng tng gi nh vi thn nn trng. Tun tip theo, thn nn en bt u trong khong thn v ng ca di gi m ca ca thn nn trng tun trc . N to nn mt upside-gap tasuki. Lu rng window nh xut hin bi mu hnh ny l ngng h tr cho s iu chnh gim vo thng 10 nh th no. Mu hnh belt hold tng gi bo hiu mt s vn ng mi. HIGH-PRICE V LOW-PRICE GAPPING PLAYS Rt bnh thng sau mt hay hai phin giao dch mnh, th trng s c phin cng c li nhun. i khi s cng c ny l mt lot cc thn nn nh. Mt nhm cc thn nn nh sau mt phin giao dch mnh s ni cho chng ta bit th trng ang lng l. Tuy nhin, nu c khong trng (window) trong xu th tng t nhng thn nn nh ny, l thi im mua vo. l mu hnh high-price gapping plays (hnh 7.17). N c gi nh vy bi v gi giao dch dao ng gn mc nh c v sau l khong trng cho mt s tng gi.

Mt mu hnh low-price gapping play, khng c g l ngc nhin, l mt s i lp ca high-price gapping play. Low-price gapping play (hnh 7.18) l mt window hng xung t nhng gi giao dch thp trong mt di hp. Di hp ny (mt lot cc thn nn nh) ban u lm n nh mt ci dc 1 n 2 phin gim mnh. Trc ht, nhm cc thn nn nh ny a ra du hiu mt nn tng ang hnh thnh. S ph v trng thi n nh tm thi v tip tc xu th gim bi mt window hng xung dp tt hy vng ca ngi mua.

100

Hnh 7.19 minh ha vo cui thng 10, u thng 11 mt lot 3 thn nn nh gip gi li nhun ca thn nn trng di ca phin giao dch trc . Khi ng to nn khong trng trn nhng thn nn , n hon thnh mu hnh high-price gapping play u tin trong th ny. Th trng tng ln n khi xut hin mu hnh dark-cloud cover vo ngy 17, 18 thng 11. Mu hnh high-price gapping play th hai c mt phin giao dch vi thn nn trng di, vi thn nn nh v sau l window. Window ny chuyn thnh ngng h tr.

101

Nhng hnh nn trong hnh 7.20 a ra du hiu tng gi khi window xut hin vo ngy 29/6. Window ny hon thnh vai tr cn thit cho vic hnh thnh nn mu hnh high-price gapping play. Trc gapping play ny, c mt thn nn trng rt mnh vo ngy 11/6. Mt lot cc nn nh theo sau nn ny. N c tim nng tr thnh high-price gapping play. Sau khng c khong trng hng ln, v th, c ngha l khng c du hiu mua vo.

Trong hnh 7.21, vo 20 v 21/7, S&P nhanh chng gim 18 im. Sau n giao dch sideway ti mc gi thp sut hn 1 tun (vi gapping play, s cng c khng nn ko di qu 11 phin). Mt ngi mi gii Nht ni vi ti rng mt trong nhng khch hng ca c y Nht (mt gim c qu chuyn s dng biu hnh nn) nhn tn hiu bn vo ngy 2/8 (xem mi tn doji) da trn mu hnh low-price gapping play. iu ny ch ra 1 kha cnh ca biu hnh nn m ti ni trc . K thut v cch s dng mu hnh hnh nn ch l hng dn, khng phi l nhng quy tc nhanh gn v cng nhc. y, chng ta c v d khi mu hnh low-price gapping play l tng khng thc s r rt, vy m gim c qu kia ngha rng n ging hnh ng. Theo nguyn tc, low-price gapping play s hon thnh khi th trng xut hin khong trng thp hn. Thp nht ngy 1/8 l 355.80 v cao nht ngy 2/8 l 355.90. Nh vy n khng phi l mt khong trng. Tuy th, n ging gim c qu Nht kia xc nh ch bo bn vo ngy 2/8. Lu rng s st gim mnh m trc nhng thn nn nh khng ng mc gi thp. Tuy vy, bi v gi vn gi nhng mc thp trong phm vi giao dch hp ca cc phin sau , n ging vi mu hnh low-price gapping play cung cp cho nhng ngi s dng biu hnh nn tn hiu bn vo ngy 2/8. l minh ha cho s ch quan khi s dng cc mu hnh hnh nn, cng nh cc k thut biu khc nh th no. 102

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 17)

NHNG MU HNH TIP DIN ( tip theo ) GAPPING SIDE-BY-SIDE WHITE LINES Trong mt xu hng tng, mt thn nn trng vi khong trng tng gi theo sau bi mt thn nn trng khc c kch c tng t, vi cng mc gi m l 1 mu hnh tip din tng gi. Mu hnh 2 cy nn ny c gi l upgap side-by-side white lines (hnh 7.22). Nu th trng ng ca trn mc cao ca side-byside white lines, gi s tip tc tng.

Mu hnh va c m t th rt him. Thm ch him hn na l mu hnh side-by-side white lines vi khong trng thp hn. N c gi l downgap side-by-side white lines (hnh 7.23). Trong mt xu hng gim, mu hnh side-by-side white lines cng l mt mu hnh tip din. C ngha l gi s tip tc xung thp hn na. L do mu hnh ny khng phi l mu hnh tng gi (nh s a dng ca upgap) bi v trong th trng gi gim, nhng nn trng ny c xem nh l vic mua tr li cho cc trng thi bn ra. Mt khi vic mua tr ny chm dt, gi c th xung thp hn na. L do m mu hnh downgap side-byside white line c bit him bi v nhng thn nn en, ch khng phi l nhng thn nn trng, thng hay xut hin trong th trng vi nhng khong trng thp hn. Nu trong th trng gim gi, nn en c khong trng thp hn v n c theo sau bi nn en khc vi mc ng ca thp hn, th trng tip tc st gim na. Hnh 7.24 ch ra mt mu hnh downgap side-by-side white line vo u thng 3. L thuyt ng sau mu hnh ny l trong mt xu hng gim, c vic mua tr cho cc trng thi bn ra. V th, n to ra mt s ngh ngi tm thi t th trng gim gi. l iu chng ta thy y khi th trng tip tc rt gi sau thi gian cng c. N khng phi l mt mu hnh downgap side-by-side white line l tng khi nhng gi m ca cc nn trng khng ng nht v nn trng c tch ra sau 1 ngy. Tuy vy, n vn c v vi mu hnh downgap side-by-side white line. 103

Thm na, hnh 7.24 ch ra 2 mu hnh upgap side-by-side white line. Mu hnh ny cnh bo du hiu tng gi nu n hin ra nhng mc gi thp. Upgap side-by-side white line u tin c 3 gi m ca gn cng mc gi. Sau , th trng th hin mt s iu chnh gn vo ngy 8/5 v phm vi bt ph nm di window nhng s bt tr li cng bt u t im . Upgap side-by-side white line th 2 a ra ch bo tng gi khc. Vi nhng upgap side-by-side white lines, chng thit lp mt s h tr vng chc.

RISING V FALLING THREE METHODS Three methods bao gm bullish rising three methods v bearish falling three methods. (Lu con s 3 tip tc xut hin nh th no). C hai l nhng mu hnh cng c, tip din. Nhng chun nhn dng mu hnh rising three methods (hnh 7.25) bao gm: 1. Mt thn nn trng di. 2. Sau thn nn trng ny l mt nhm cc thn nn nh gim gi. Con s l tng cho nhm nn ny l 3, nhng 2 hoc hn 3 u c chp nhn min l chng c bn c gi trong phm vi ca thn nn trng kia. Nhm nn nh ny ging vi mu hnh three day harami khi chng c gi trong phm vi ca thn nn trng u tin (Vi mu hnh ny bao gm vic gi trong phm vi nhng bng nn, vi mt harami chun, n ch bao gm thn nn). Nhm nn nh ny mu g cng c, nhng thng l mu en.

104

3. Phin cui cng cn phi l mt thn nn trng mnh vi gi ng ca nm trn gi ng ca ca thn nn trng u tin. Thn nn cui cng ny cng nn c gi m ca trn gi ng ca ca phin giao dch trc . Mu hnh ny cng ging vi mu hnh bull flag hay pennant ca phng Ty. Tuy vy, khi nim pha sau mu hnh rising three methods c t nhng nm 1700. Mu hnh three methods c xem nh l s ngh ngi ca giao dch (hay cuc chin). Trong nhng thut ng hin i, th trng, vi nhng nhm nn nh, ang x hi.

Mu hnh falling three methods (hnh 7.26) l s i lp ca mu hnh rising three methods. mu hnh ny xut hin, th trng phi nm trong xu th gim v mt thn nn en di s xut hin. Theo sau thn nn ny l khong 3 thn nn nh (thng l nn trng) vi thn ca chng c gi trong phm vi ca thn nn u tin (bao gm c bng nn). Phin giao dch cui cng s m ca di gi ng ca tc v sau ng ca di gi ng ca ca thn nn u tin. Sau thn nn en ny, th trng s i xung thp hn. Mu hnh ny ging vi mu hnh bear flag hay pennant ca phng Ty. Hnh 7.27 th hin mt mu hnh rising three methods kinh in. Th trng trong xu hng tng, c 3 thn nn en nh gim v 1 thn nn trng di trc . Nhng thn nn en ny nm trong phm vi ca thn nn trng u tin. Thn nn trng cui cng ng ca trn gi ng ca ca thn nn trng u tin. Mt yu t na c th ch ra s quan trng ca mu hnh ny l khi lng giao dch ca thn nn trng (hoc en) trong mu hnh rising (hoc falling) three methods cao hn hn so vi cc phin giao dch c thn nn nh. Chng ta c th nhn thy phin giao dch c thn nn trng di ca mu hnh rising three methods, khi lng giao dch cao hn hn so vi 3 phin giao dch c thn nn en nh.

105

106

Hnh 7.28 cng l mt mu hnh rising three methods. Khi n hon thnh, tri phiu c y ln cho n khi n gp phi mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Mc d mu hnh three methods l tng c 3 thn nn en nh theo sau mt thn nn trng di, hnh 7.29 l mt v d vi 2 thn nn nh. Hot ng ca gi vo thng 6/1988 dng nn mt thn nn trng cao. Thn nn en theo sau vo thng 7 v thng 8 vi phm vi giao dch trong khong thn nn trng ny. Thng 9 hnh thnh mt thn nn trng khc vi nh mi nhng n tht bi trong vic ng ca trn mc ng ca thng 6 vi ch 3 ticks. Thng thng, chng ta mun thy gi ng ca cao hn. Trong trng hp ny, khi thn nn trng cui (thng 9) ch ng ca thp hn gi ng ca ca thng 6 c 3 ticks, mu hnh ny vn c xem xt l mu hnh rising three methods vi s khng nh tng gi phin giao dch sau. Mt gi ng ca cao hn vo thng 10 khng nh v m bo cho s tng gi.

Ba thn nn nh c gi trong phm vi cao v thp ca thn nn u tin c m t trong hnh 7.30. N c ko theo bi thn nn trng khc. Thn nn trng cui cng c gi cng mc ng ca vi thn nn u tin, do vy, chng ta cn s khng nh. Khi gi tip theo m ca trn thn nn trng cui cng, s khng nh tng gi trong tay chng ta. Quan st nh ca mu hnh rising three methods tr thnh vng h tr c test vo gi u tin ngy 1/8 nh th no. Hai v d v mu hnh tip din tng gi xut hin hnh 7.31. Mu hnh rising three methods u tin, vo u thng 7, ch ra 2 thn nn c th thay v 3, sau thn nn trng di u tin. Lu 2 thn nn ny c gi trong phm vi ca thn nn u tin. Sau , thn nn trng di cui cng ca mu hnh ny m ca trn gi ng ca ca phin trc v to ra nh mi ti gi ng ca. Mu hnh th 2 trong hnh 7.31 th hin mu sc ca nhng thn nn sau thn nn u tin khng nht thit phi l mu en.

107

Min l nhng thn nn ny nm trong phm vi ca thn nn u tin, n vn c tim nng tr thnh mu hnh three methods. y, tim nng ny tr thnh hin thc bi thn nn trng di cui cng vi gi ng ca mc cao mi.

Vo thng 3 nm 1989, mt window xut hin trong hnh 7.32. Da vo nhng iu ni trc v s iu chnh tr li window, ngi ta hy vng mt s tng tr li ln n window. 108

T , xu th gim trc tr li. Sau window, 3 thn nn nh pht trin. Cuc tn cng mc window xy ra vo tun u ca thng 4. N tht bi t . Hai tun tip theo, nht l tun th ba vi thn nn trng nh, l mt n lc khc nhm ng window. N lc ny cng b tht bi. Thn nn en di cui cng ng ca di mc ng ca ca thn nn en u tin. Hot ng gi hon tt vi 5 thn nn ca mu hnh falling three methods.

109

Hnh 7.33 l mt v d vi 4, thay v 3 thn nn nh. iu quan trng l cc thn nn ny giao dch trong phm vi ca thn nn u tin. Thn nn en di cui cng hon thin mu hnh ny. Lu tick volume khng nh hot ng ca thn nn en nh th no. l tick volume m rng vi thn nn en v thu hp li vi nhng thn nn trng gia. Chng ta s bn lun chi tit hn v biu hnh nn vi khi lng trong chng 15, bao gm c tick volume. Biu trong ngy trong hnh 7.34 cp n mt nguyn l quan trng, khng hnh ng theo s hnh thnh cho n khi s hnh thnh c hon tt. y, v d, l mt v d ca mu hnh falling three methods cha hon thin. Mt thn nn en tht s di xut hin trong gi u tin ngy 23/4. Ba thn nn nh to ra xu hng tng gi sau xut hin. Mt thn nn en di theo sau 3 thn nn nh ny. Gi ng ca ca thn nn th 5 khng di gi ng ca ca thn nn u tin. V th, mu hnh falling three methods cha thc s hnh thnh. Nu c s xc nhn gim gi phin giao dch sau , hot ng gi cn c xem xt l s khng nh ca mu hnh falling three methods khi gi ng ca ca thn nn en u tin v thn nn en cui cng l gn nhau. Trong trung hp ny, khng c s khng nh gim gi no trong 1 hoc 2 gi sau . Mt doji xut hin sau thn nn en cui cng. Doji ny, kt hp vi thn nn en trc , to ra harami cross. l mu hnh o chiu ng rng xu th gim trc ngay lp tc khng cn na. Thm na, y trong nhng gi tip theo test thnh cng tt c cc mc y t ngy 23/4. V vy, nu ngi no on rng mu hnh falling three methods c hon thnh, ngi on sai. Hy ch n lc mu hnh c hnh thnh, hoc xc nhn trc khi hnh ng theo cc gi ca n.

110

Hnh 7.35 l mt mu hnh falling three methods kinh in vi ng gim gi c ph nh bi hammer. Nu hammer khng ni rng xu hng gim kt thc vi cc bng chng c th hn th thn nn trng sau hammer chng minh iu . N hon thnh mu hnh engulfing tng gi.

111

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 18)

NHNG MU HNH TIP DIN ( tip theo ) THREE ADVANCING WHITE SOLDIERS Ging nh nhiu thut ng v cc mu hnh khc, mu hnh ny l mt t chc ca qun i. N c bit vi ci tn three advancing white soldiers (hnh 7.36) hoc ph bin hn, three white soldiers. l mt nhm ba thn nn trng vi nhng gi ng ca lin tc cao hn. Nu mu hnh ny xut hin vng gi thp sau mt thi k n nh ca gi, th l du hiu ca s dch chuyn mnh pha trc. Three white soldiers c s tng gi t t v vng chc vi mi thn nn trng m ca trong hoc gn thn nn trng trc . Mi thn nn trng ng ca ti hoc gn vi nh ca n. l s lnh mnh ca th trng tng gi (mc d nu nhng thn nn trng m rt rng, th mi ngi cn phi rt thn trng vi mt th trng qu mua).

Nu thn nn th 2 v th 3, hoc ch thn nn th 3 th hin du hiu yu i, n l mt mu hnh advance block (hnh 7.37). N c ngha l s vn ng ang gp rc ri v nhng ngi mua cn phi t bo v h. c bit thn trng vi mu hnh ny khi n din ra vo cui thi k tng gi. Du hiu suy yu c th l nhng thn nn trng nh dn hoc nhng bng trn di tng i 2 thn nn cui. Nu 2 thn nn cui l mt thn nn trng di to nn mt nh mi, theo sau l mt thn nn trng nh, n c gi l mu hnh stalled (hnh 7.38). N i khi cng c gi l mu hnh deliberation. Sau s hnh thnh ny, sc mnh ca ngi mua tm thi suy gim. Nn trng nh cui cng c th to ra khong trng tng gi t thn nn trng di (trong trng hp ny n tr thnh mt star) hay c th l, nh mt cu thnh ng ca ngi Nht, ci ln vai ca thn nn trng di (ngha l kt thc trn ca thn nn di trc ). Thn nn nh l ra s suy gim sc mnh ca ngi mua. Thi gian din ra mu hnh ny l khong thi gian cho cc trng thi mua vo cht li.

112

Mc d mu hnh advance block v mu hnh stalled khng phI l nhng mu hnh o chiu nh thng thng, chng c th i khi i trc mt s st gim gi y ngha. Advance block v stalled cn c s dng kt thc hay bo v trng thi mua vo (v d, bn cc lnh mua trc) nhng khng phi l bn khng. Chng ni chung t hiu qu cao hn ti nhng mc gi cao.

Trong hnh 7.39, mu hnh three white soldiers t mc gi thp nm 1985 phn nh s vn ng. N c theo sau bi 2 mu hnh advance block. Advance block 1 c nhng thn nn trng nh tng dn vo u nm 1987 khng bo trc mc gi cao hn. Mt shooting star l thn nn trng cui cng ca nhm 3 thn nn ny. Th trng long chong t thng tip theo. C s y gi khc sau nhng doji ny nhng mu hnh advanced block tip theo a ra mt cnh bo khc. Advance block 2 c hnh thnh vo gia nm 1987. S khc nhau chnh gia mu hnh ny v three white soldiers trong advance block 1 l thn nn trng cui cng c bng trn di hn. N khng qu di, nhng n th hin rng th trng khng c sc mnh ng ca gn mc cao. Ni cch khc, s dn u (tin ln) ca ngi lnh b kho. Mt mu hnh hanging man xut hin thng sau. Nhng ngi lnh sau rt lui. C mt l do khc nghi ng v s tng gi tip sau advance block 2. Trong khi three white soldiers nm 1985 bt u t mc gi thp, ba thn nn trng ca mu hnh advance block xut hin sau khi th trng duy tr mt s m rng v gi. Trong hnh 7.40, u nm 1989 mu hnh stalled 1 tm thi khin gi gim li sau xu hng tng trc . ng thi, mu hnh ny cng n sau mt s m rng bi mt lot cc thn nn trng.

113

Mu hnh stalled 2 ch duy tr gi trc trong 2 tun. Thn nn nh trng cui cng trong mu hnh deliberation ny l mt hanging man. Mt khi th trng ng ca trn mc cao ca hanging man trong 2 tun sau , th trng khng c kh nng gim. Vo u thng 7, three white soldiers tng gi bt u mt s vn ng y ngha. N to ra 7 nh mi (tc l 7 k lc nh). Tp hp khc ca three white soldiers xut hin vo qu 3 nm 1989. Bi v mi thn nn trong ba thn nn ny ng ca nh ca n, mu hnh ny c tt c cc du hiu ring ng s vn ng mnh m khc, ging vi mu hnh bt u vo thng 7. Nhng iu khng tn ti. Tun sau thn nn trng th 3 ca nhm ny, mt thn nn nh xut hin. N to nn mu hnh harami v ni rng xu hng tng gi trc gp rc ri. Shooting star vi tun sau khng nh vn ti nhng nh ny.

Hnh 7.41 minh ha 3 mu hnh stalled. Mu hnh 1 cng to ra mu hnh harami ch ra s vn ng ngn. Mu hnh stalled 2 tht bi trong vic gi vn ng ca gi trong vng kim sot, trong khi mu hnh stalled 3 cha mt shooting star. Mu hnh stalled 3 em li mt s thay i xu hng, t th trng tng gi sang sideway vi tun sau . Nh rng mu hnh stalled khng phi l mt mu hnh thng o chiu xu hng, n thng c ngha l thi gian cn nhc trc khi th trng quyt nh xu hng tip theo. Trong trng hp mu hnh stalled 3, mt window m ra sau khi gi dch chuyn trong mt phm vi hp, hon thnh mu hnh tng gi high-price gapping play. N ch bo s tip tc ca sc mnh.

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Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 19)

Magic Doji (tm dch l Doji huyn diu) S nguy him bt ng Ging nh ni trong chng 3 , Doji l mt cy nn , gi m ca v gi ng ca ca n gn bng nhau . V d nn Doji trn hnh 8.1 -8.3. Doji l mt ch s bo hiu s o chiu rt quan trng . Trong chng ny ta s nghin cu r hn v n .

S quan trng ca Doji Doji l tng c gi m ca v ng ca bng nhau , nhng t quy tc c ngoi l . Nu gi ng ca v m ca cch nhau khng qu xa ( v d , khong 1/4 im trn th trng ht ng cc hoc 2/3 im trn th trng tri phiu ) , vi cy nn nh vy c th coi l mt Doji . lm th no xc nh, c th cy nn l gn vi cy nn Doji (gi m ca v ng ca gn nhau nhng khng bng nhau) ? y khng c mt quy tc cng nhc , c th coi l Doji hay khng nn xt trong t hp ca cc cy nn . Nu ta c mt dy cc cy nn c thn kh nh th vic xem mt ngi sao ging nh Doji l khng c ngha . Nu trn th trng ch i s thay i xu hng mi hoc trn th trng lu ang l xu hng tng gi hoc gim gi hoc c nhng du hiu khc v s o chiu , th cy nn vi thn rt nh c th coi l Doji . iu ny c gii thch nh sau , Doji c th l tn hiu rt quan trng nn tt hn l coi n l ng cn hn b qua n (th nh nhm cn hn b st J) B qua du hiu ny c th mang li mt hu qu kh lng . Doji l mt du hiu o chiu rt quan trng . Th nhng , xc sut o chiu s tng ln , nu cy nn tip theo khng nh du hiu ny . Doji quan trng ch trn th trng , Doji khng qu thng xuyn sut hin . Nu trn mt th gi no bn gp qu nhiu Doji th n nh mt ngha ca n . Chnh v th phng php ny khng nn s dng trong biu gi trong ngy vi khong thi gian 30 pht . Trn biu vi khong thi gian ngn hn c nhiu cy nn l Doji hoc gn Doji (ngoi tr trng hp th trng rt bin ng nh th trng ca tri phiu hay ch s S & P) Doji trn cc nh Doji c bit n bi kh nng ch ra nh ca th trng . c bit nh c c trng bi cc Doji hnh thnh sau mt cy nn trng di trong xu hng tng gi (hnh 8.4) . 116

Doji biu hin s do d trn th trng , s khng chc chn v b dao ng . Nhng ngi bn mun gi c th trng trong xu hng tng , ch tr khi lm vng tin c nhng ngi mua v kh nng tng ca th trng . Nu th trng tng trong di hn hoc ang trong giai on mua li, sau xut hin Doji (s do d) , - th iu c ngha l nhng ngi mua bt u ngng mua t , th trng chm dt chui tng im lin tip . Cng lc , nh kinh nghim ch ra rng trong iu kin th trng i xung . kh nng ca Doji v bo hiu s o chiu ca xu hng th trng cng gim i phn no . C th nguyn nhn cn bn l Doji c trng cho tng quan sc lc gia bull v bear . Trong trng hp khng xc nh c tng quan , th trng c th gim do bn cht ring ca mnh . Nh vy sau khi xut hin Doji xu hng tng s nhanh chng thay i , cn th trng ang gim c th vn tip tc gim . V nguyn nhn ny m du hiu o chiu y s phi kiu nh k hn nh th trng sau khi xut hin Doji.

Hnh 8.5 biu ngy ca tri phiu 117

T hnh v ta thy rng sau khi sut hin Doji 1 xu hng tng trn th trng tri phiu b chn li , gi i theo xu hng ngang trong hp Darvas . Doji 2 nm ti nh ca th trng , n gi l Doji bng di . Doji bng di l Doji vi mt hoc 2 u bng nn di. Cy nn ni ln rng th trng t ti y . C th hn v cy nn Doji bng di s s c xem xt phn tip theo ca chng ny . T th thy r rng Doji 1 , 2 l du hiu o chiu ca xu hng tng trc nh . ( Doji , xut hin 31/10 nm gia hp nm ngang Darvas nn n khng c nhiu ngha) sau khi gi gim xut hin cc Doji 3, 4, 5, 6 v 7 . Nhng khng c mt s o chiu no cc Doji ny xy ra. Xu hng tng tip tc , v ch sau khi xut hin Doji 8, 9 thit lp mu hnh 2 y mi xy ra s o chiu . T suy ra rng ch ra nh c th ch cn mt Doji , cn ch ra y th cn phi c nhng du hiu kim chng .

Hnh 8.6 biu theo ngy ca la mch Trn hnh 8.6 ta thy rng du hiu u tin v s kt thc ca xu hng tng bt u vo gia nm 1987 l Doji 1 . Sau s o chiu c thc hin b Doji th 2 , Doji th 2 c kim chng bi m hnh ngi n ng treo c ngay sau . Th trng gim im , sau c mt s tng nh kt thc vo cui nm 1989 vi s xut hin ca Doji 3 . V d ny chng minh mt iu rng vi s xut hin ca cc tn hiu kim chng sau Doji , th xc sut ca s o chiu th trng tng ln ng k . Cy nn trng xut hin 1 thang sau Doji 1 , khng phi l kim chng v s hnh thnh nh ca th trng . tn hiu b sung ngi n ng treo c ngay sau Doji 2 l mt kim chng v s hnh thnh mt xu hng gim mi .S kim chng rng Doji 3 l du hiu ca nh chnh l cy nn en di hnh thnh thng sau . Nhng ngi ng h trng phi bo th th yu cu thm nhiu cc kim chng v s thay i ca xu hng . Bao nhiu thi gian cn phi i nhng kim chng ? Tr li cu hi ny hon ton l mang tnh ch quan v gi thit tho hip no , xc nh mc ri ro m bn c th sn sng lao vo th trng. 118

S xut hin tnh hiu kim chng b sung v s o chiu ca xu hng gip gim bt ri ro, nhng cng lm gim li nhun ca bn . Cng lc , khi m bn khng nh c rng xu hng thc s thay i th kh nng thng ca bn c th gim i ng k .

Hnh 8.7 Biu gi theo ngy ca ht u tng Trn hnh 8.7 c 3 mu hnh Doji , xut hin sau mt xu hng tng . Doji 1 l du hiu chm dt xu hng tng trc . Doji 2 khng thnh cng o chiu xu hng , nhng ngy tip theo gi vn gim 0,08 $ . c bit th v l Doji 3 . N c gi tr hn 2 Doji trc , v sau c tn hiu kim chng l m hnh ngi phu xe . Doji 3 ch ra kh vng chc s gim ca xu hng tng trc , hnh thnh mt xu hng gim mi . Sau khi n xut hin nh u t lu di nn s dng cc bin php bo v mnh . H phi gii phng mt phn c phiu tng mun u t trong di hn . S tng gi ng k trong thi gian ngy hm sau gy ln mt vi nghi ng s xut hin ca xu hng gim . Nhng cui ngy gi li gim , l tn hiu ch ra rng xu hng tng trc hu nh ht hn . Trong vi tun sau th trng nm trong trng thi cn bng , sau xut hin m hnh o chiu ngi sao bui ti . Mc d m hnh ngi sao ny khng c l tng (khng c khong trng gia ngi sao v thn cy nn trng trc ) nhng trong tng quan ca th trng th y l du hiu ng tin cy ca s gim ca xu hng th trng .

119

Doji sau mt cy nn trng di

Hnh 8.8 Ch s Down Jon 1989 -1990 , biu theo ngy Trn hnh ch ra rng Doji xut hin sau mt thn nn trng di , c bit sau mt xu hng tng gi ko di , thng l mt du hiu rt tt ch ra rng th trng gn ti nh ca n . 1. Doji 1 xut hin vo thng 8/1989 sau 2 cy nn trng di . Sau n xu hng tng chm dt v chuyn sang i ngang . 2. Doji 2 xut hin vo u thng 09 sau mt cy nn trng di . Chm dt chui tng im ngn hn trc v sau my ngy ch s Down Jon xung y vo cui thng 10. 3. Trong thi gian nhng tun cui cng nm 1989 quan st thy s tng mnh ca ch s ny , v tng ti 2800 . Nhng s tng mnh m b trit tiu bi s xut hin ca Doji 3 . Doji 3 xut hin sau mt cy nn trng thn di . iu ni ln rng ngi mua , ngi m iu khin th trng trc y ( th hin qua cy nn trng di ) , nh mt sc mnh ca mnh . Vi s xut hin ca cy nn n sau Doji ngy sau lm tng xc xut th trng ti nh tng trng. Cy nn en ny cng thc hin c m hnh ngi sao bui ti cng lm tng kh nng o chiu hn . V d ny mt ln na ch cho chng ta mt trong nhng kt qu t c bi phng php Japan candles . N ch ra cc tn hiu , ci m khng th c c trong phng php ca phng ty . Vi nhng nh ptkt phng ty s bng nhau ca gi m ca v ng ca khng ni ln iu g .

120

Hnh 8.9 ch s nickey -1990 , biu gi theo ngy Trn hnh 8.9 ch ra mt xu hng tng khng ng k , bt u t m hnh ci ba vo gia thng 3(khng phi l mt cy ba l tng v bng khng c di , cn thn th khng qua nh) . Xu hng tng ny nhanh chng b dp tt bi Doji , xut hin sau mt cy nn trng thn di . N cng l mt bin hnh ca m hnh ngi sao bui ti . v tht hnh phc vi s xut hin ca mt cy ba l tng b tan xu hng gim trc hnh thnh xu hng tng mi.

121

Hnh 8.10 Tri phiu , biu theo tun Trn hnh ny ta thy (sao thy ging th trng nh mnh qu nh J) vi xu hng tng gi , trong s vn hnh ca n gi tri phiu tng ln 7 im . S tng gi kt thc sau khi xut hin mu hnh Doji sau mt thn nn trng di .

Hnh 8.11 Bng 1990 , th trong ngy Trn hnh 8.11 ta thy ngy 19/04 xut hin mt m hnh ci ba trn th trng bng , xu hng tng gi hnh thnh v kt thc vo ngy 23/12 sau khi xut hin Doji sau mt thn nn trng di

122

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 20)

Magic Doji (tm dch l Doji huyn diu) (tip theo) Doji bng di v ngi phu xe (Long Legged Doji and Rickshaw man) Doji bng di ng vai tr c bit quan trng , nu n xut hin trn nh. Doji trn hnh 8.2 vi bng trn v bng di di ni ln khong do d trn th trng . Trong thi gian giao dch th trng tng ln nhanh chng , sau t t gim ( hoc ngc li) . Gi ng ca bng hoc rt gn nhau . Nu gi ng ca v m ca nm trong trung tm ca khong bin ng gi , th cy nn gi l ngi phu xe hay Rickshaw man hay ting Nga cho gn J (). Nu cy nn khng phi l Doji , nhng c bng trn hoc bng di rt di so vi thn nn , n c gi l sng cao(high wave). Nhm cc sng cao l tn hiu o chiu xu hng . Nhng nh phn tch Nht Bn ni v nhng cy nn vi bng rt di rng n l nhng ngi b ng .

Trn hnh 8.12 nhn r rng giao dch cui thng 04 v u thng 05 nh du bi s xut hin ca Doji hay l cy nn gn vi Doji . Cy nn vi thn nh - du hiu xu sau khi tng im khng bao lu. N ni ln s mt mi ca th trng , rng ngi mua ang nh mt sc mnh ca mnh . Doji bng di ( trong trng hp ny 2 mu hnh ngi n ng phu xe) l mt du hiu nguy him (mc d gi m v ng ca cy nn u tin khng trng nhau , n khng phi l Doji) . 123

N th hin mt th trng b khi con ng . Nhm cy nn vi thn nh trn biu hin s kt thc ca xu hng tng di trc . Cc cy nn en ny ging nh ang treo th trng bn di , v vy gi m hnh ny l falling chandelier formation .

S xut hin Doji bng di trn hnh 8.13 ch ra rng xc sut hnh thnh nh l rt cao ( cy nn ny c gi m ca v ng ca kh gn nhau , nn c th coi l Doji ). Doji ny cn hnh thnh ln 2 mu hnh na l harami patter v Tweezers top m ta bit t cc chng trc . S trng hp ca cc mu hnh k thut cng lm cho kh nng hnh thnh nh ln hn . Trn hnh 8.14 ch ra rng vi s xut hin Doji bng di thng 01 trn th trng vng bo hiu th trng l ti nh . Cy nn vi bng trn di vo u thng 02 khng nh mc khng c , to ln bi Doji bng di.

124

Doji Bia M ( Gravestone Doji) Mt th d Doji in hnh l Doji bia m( hnh 8.3) . N xut hin khi gi ng ca v m ca nm trn mc gi thp nht ca ngy . i khi Doji bia m xut hin trn y ca th trng , nhng tn hiu ch yu ca n l tn hiu o chiu trn nh . Nhn b ngoi ca n hon ton ging vi tn ca Doji . Ging nh ni t trc , rt nhiu cch t tn ca nh pt Nht kt hp vi qun s , v Doji bia m cng ko phi l ngoi l : N nm yn ngh trn ngi m ca Bull v Bear . c trng th trng con gu ca Doji bia m , xut hin sau mt xu hng tng , gii thch khng kh . Th trng m ca trn mc thp nht ca ngy, sau n t t i ln v xc nh mt nh mi ca giao dch trong ngy . Sau gi gim xung mc thp nht ca ngy hoc rt gn ti mc . Bng nn pha trn cng cao th tnh ng n ca Doji bia m cng c khng nh

125

Trn hnh 8.15 ch ra mt Doji , xut hin vo 11 12 / 04 . Doji 2 mang nhiu ngha hn Doji 1 , l Doji bia m . S xut hin ca n bo hiu rng chin thng thuc v bear . T th ta thy sau khi Doji bia m xut hin l mt cy nn en ph v mc h tr ca ng xu hng tng trc . iu ny cng lm cho tnh ng n ca Doji bia m cao hn .

Trn hnh 8.16 Doji bia m , xut hin vo 08/10 (c bng di kh nh, nhng thn nh v bng trn rt di ) , L tn hiu khng d chu cho nh u t bi xu hng gim l kh trnh khi . Cng ngy hm xc lp mt mc nh mi , th trng Bull c c hi nhng khng th giu c v gi li gim v mc m ca ca ngy . Ta cng quan st thy trn th trc khi Doji bia m xut hin cn c s xut hin ca mu hnh hm phanh hay satalled pattern cng bo hiu mt t gim gi mi . Mt vi ngi trong chng ta , c th nhn thy rng , Doji bia m lm cho ta nh v m hnh o chiu shooting start (sao ri) . Doji bia m trn nh l mt trng hp c bit ca shooting start. 126

Shooting start c thn khng ln , cn Doji bia m th gn nh khng c thn (thn rt nh) . Nh vy tn hiu m Doji bia m th hin c xc sut cao hn. Doji ging nh mc khng c v h tr Doji , c bit nu nh ta gp trn cc nh quan trng hoc y quan trng , i khi c th ng vai tr nh l mt mc khng c hoc h tr th trng .

Trn hnh 8.17 ta thy r y ca bng di Doji , xut hin vo 09/1989 , tr thnh mt mc h tr th trng nh th no . V nh ca bng trn Doji, xut hin vo cui thng 09 tr thnh mc khng c . Trn hnh 8.18 , Mu hnh ngi phu xe Rickshaw man (thn ca n nh coi n l Doji) , xut hin vo u gi giao dch ngy 21/03 , tr thnh du hiu bo v kh nng o chiu ca xu hng tng trc . Sau mt s gi mt Doji na hnh thnh cng khng nh nhn xt trn . 2 Doji ny hnh thnh mt mc khng c rt quan trng trong ngy .

127

Ba ngi sao (tri star)

Ba ngi sao trn hnh 8.19 rt him gp trong th trng , nhng n l mt m hnh rt quan trng ca s o chiu . Mu hnh 3 ngi sao c hnh thnh bi 3 Doji . Mt ln na nhc li rng m hnh l tng 3 ngi sao rt him khi thy , nhng nhng bin hnh ca n cng ng vai tr rt quan trng. Chng ta tm hiu v m hnh 3 ngi sao chng ny m ko phi chng cc ngi sao trc v ci quan trng ca m hnh ny l s xut hin ca 3 Doji (hoc gn vi Doji).

hnh 8.20 ta thy vo 16 -17/09 xut hin 2 Doji , sau n l mt ngi sao vi thn nh . y l mt bin hnh ca m hnh 3 Doji bo hiu mt s tng gi sp bt u.

128

Trn hnh 8.21 ch ra s tng gi ca ch s Dow Jones , bt u t cui thng 09/1989 . nh cao nht ca t tng gi hnh thnh 3 Doji vo u thng 10 . 3 ngi sao ny khng tht l tng nh m hnh 3 Doji theo nh ngha , nhng sau khi tng gi ti 170 im , nhiu ngi c li nhun b th trng . Ch rng : sau khi xut hin 2 Doji cng hnh thnh ln nh vi mu hnh Tweezer top

129

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 21)

Tng hp tt c cng nhau Thm ch nhng bin ln cng theo dng Trong phn 1 cha cun sch , chng ta xem nhng cy nn ring l v kiu hnh ca n . Trong chng ny trong tiu ni ht nhng iu mun ni . cc biu (9.1 ; 9.2 v 9.3) l cc cy nn c nh s v cc mu hnh ca n . Bn hy th t mnh lm vic vi n . C th bn s c gip bi cc ch thch trong phn cui cun sch ny . Ti cng trnh by mt s cc ch s ca mnh , nhng li gii cui cng vn phi do bn. Hy nh rng , s gii thch ca mt biu bt k lun lun cha trong n mt yu t ch quan . Ngi c c th s nhn thy cc ch bo tng t nh ti trnh by . Nhng c th tm thy cc ch bo khc m ti khng ti . Trong phn tch k thut , tt c c xc nh da vo kinh nhim ca nh u t . y khng tn ti mt quy tc no hon ton ng, c chng l cc quy tc , gii thch chung . V d , m hnh cy ba , bng di ch hn thn nn 1,5 ln (cy nn l tng cn bng nn di hn thn 2-3 ln). Nhng mt ngi phn tch kt no li cho rng khng phi l mt cy ba v b qua du hiu . a phn cc nh u t thn trng trong trng hp ny s ngng li cc u t ngn hn ca mnh . Mt s khc khng hnh ng g cho ti giao dch tip theo , khi c th tnh hnh s r rng hn.

Trong hnh 9.1 c nhng ch bo sau :

130

1. M hnh ci ba ngc, c khng nh bi s tng gi ngy tip theo . 2. M hnh stalled pattern tm dch l hm phanh , ch ra rng c th xu hng tng trc kt thc . 3. M hnh hm phanh (2) c khng nh bng mt m hnh ngi n ng treo c cy nn cui cng. 4. Cy nn en(4) khng nh du hiu gim. T hp ca cy nn 3 v 4 hnh thnh ln nh ca mt ci kp v m hnh hp th gim . 5. Li mt m hnh treo c . 6. M hnh tng c nh du bng m hnh hp th tng v cy nn trng tng hnh thnh m hnh belt hold tm dch l nm dy (cy nn trng bao ph hon ton cy nn n nh trc k c bng ca cy nn nh). 7. S tng gi c tip tc ti khi xut hin m hnh treo c. gn nh l mt m hnh treo c l tng . C bng di di , thn nn nh , c bng trn rt ngn . M hnh ny c khng nh bi cy nn sau c gi ng ca thp hn . 8. Mt cy ba ngc tng gi c khng nh bi cy nn tng tip theo . N cng hnh thnh ln cng vi 2 cy nn hm trc v hm sau m hnh ngi sao bui sng . 9. S tng tip tc cho ti khi xut hin m hnh harami pattern gim gi . 10. Cy ba l du hiu ch ra rng c th th trng ti y .

11. Hnh thnh mt dng bin hnh ca m hnh tia sng t m my . Gi m ca ca cy nn trng th 2 gn thp hn gi ng ca ca cy nn en ( m khng thp hn gi thp nht ca ngy hm trc nh yu cu ca m hnh). Gi ng ca ca cy nn trng cao hn cy nn en. 12. Xut hin mt m hnh treo c na . Nhng m hnh ny khng c h tr bi cy nn tng e ngy tip theo . Nn m hnh ny khng thc hin c. 13. Xut hin m hnh hp th hay bao ph gim .

14. Sau hnh thnh mt m hnh kinh in nh snh t m my . Cy nn th 2 ca m hnh to ln mt m hnh khc l m hnh belt hold tm dch l nm dy , c gi ng ca l gi cao nht ca ngy . N cng c gi m ca mc thp nht (mc h tr) to ra m hnh (11). 15. 16. Ngi sao Doji gim gi . M hnh harami pattern nh du s kt thc xu hng gim trc .

131

Hnh 9.2 c cc ch bo sau : 1. y ca m hnh ci kp v cy nn trng ca m hnh belt- hold bo hiu mt xu hng tng sau . 2. M hnh m my en bao ph . 3. window ca s , l mt mc khng c. 4. Sau hnh thnh mt m hnh ngi sao bui sng. N c mt s khc bit so vi m hnh mu . Cy nn th 3 khng phi l mt cy nn trng di . Mc d vy n tng cao hn mc gia cy nn trng u tin. M hnh ny cng l mt ln test mc thp nht hnh thnh tun trc. 5. Gi tng , bt u t m hnh (4), kt thc vi s xut hin nh ci kp. M hnh ny nm trn mc khng c window (3). 6. Mt cy ba ngc c h tr bi mt cy nn tng gi mnh ngy tip theo. Cy nn mnh ny cng ph v mc khng c window (3), bo hiu mt t tng mnh m. 7. M hnh harami pattern bo hiu s gim tng ca xu hng trc .

132

8. Cy nn m hnh (8) cng vi cy nn en di trc hnh thnh ln m hnh harami pattern tng gi , kt thc qu trnh gim trc . 9. L mt cy ba ,mt bng chng chng minh xu hng gim kt thc . 10. 11. Mt ngi sao Doji bo hiu sp ti nh ca th trng . harami pattern mt cnh bo na v s kt thc ca xu hng tng trc .

12. M hnh m my en bao ph . nh X (u thng 2) , Y (gia thng 2) , Z( cui thng 2) , 3 nh ny hnh thnh ln m hnh three buddha dch l 3 pho tng. 13. 14. 15. 16. Cy ba . Thm mt harami pattern na . Bo hiu s kt thc ca xu hng tng gn hn trc . Hai ca s window , hnh thnh ln 2 mc khng c mi. Ba ngc . N cng hnh thnh ln y ca ci kp.

17. S tng hnh thnh sau cy ba ngc ngay lp tc b ngng li bi mc khng c hnh thnh bi m hnh window (15). 18. 19. Harami pattern du hiu ch ra rng xu hng gim kt thc. M hnh m my en bao ph.

Thm mt biu gi na m chng ta s phn tch sau y :

133

1. Vo gi thng 5 xut hin m hnh harami pattern . Lm tng xc sut v s kt thc ca xu hng tng trc . 2. Sau mt cy nn trng di t 1/06 xut hin mt cy nn trng thn nh hnh thnh ln m hnh hm phanh. 3. M hnh hp th hay bao ph gim gi. 4. V 5. Hnh thnh ln m hnh treo c ngay sau mt Doji gim gi l mt du hiu cnh bo iu xu sp xy ra. 5. .. 6. M hnh treo c trn mt mc khng c mnh . Du hiu cho thy gi gim l iu khng th trnh khi. 7. harami pattern cnh bo rng xu hng tng b chn li , th trng i ngang. 8. Xu hng i ngang ht bi s hnh thnh ca m hnh bao ph c gi thp nht vt qua mc khng c 9400, m hnh ny hnh thnh ngay sau m hnh harami pattnern gim gi . Bo hiu mt s gim mnh ca th trng. 134

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 22)

PHN 2 : THE RULE OF MULTIPLE TECHNICAL TECHNIQUES Bn thn cc phng php k thut hnh nn l mt cng c trade hiu qu. Nhng n s tr nn chnh xc hn khi kt hp vi cc ch bo k thut phng Ty. l ni dung chnh ca phn 2. V d, nu mt belt-hold tng gi ct ln ngng h tr di hn, c 2 l do cho rng mt s tng gi sp xy ra. Ch bo hnh nn v ch bo phng Ty h tr ln nhau. Phng php xem xt s b sung ca nhng ch bo k thut khc nhau c gi l Rule of multiple technical techniques, tm dch l s kt hp ca nhng ch bo k thut. L thuyt ny cho rng cng nhiu ch bo k thut cng a ra mt vng gi ging nhau th mc chnh xc ca d on cng cao. Phn 2 ca cun sch ny ch yu ni v s kt hp ca cc ch bo, phn cn li s dng 2 v d ca phn tch k thut phng Ty kim tra li l thuyt trn. Chng 10 tp trung vo mt nhm cc ch bo hnh nn cung cp tn hiu r rng v mt s o chiu. Chng 11-17 kt hp biu hnh nn vi mt s ch bo k thut phng Ty bao gm ng xu hng (trendlines), ng MA, cc ch s khc. Trong mi chng ti s ni r cch dng candlesticks h tr cho cc phng tin phn tch k thut phng Ty. Phn m u t chng 11-17, ti s gii thiu s lc v k thut phng Ty. Sau , chng ta s nghin cu nhng v d c th xem bng cch no c th kt hp cc ch bo phng Ty vi candlesticks. Theo kinh nghim ca ti, ch bo phng Ty v candlesticks l mt s kt hp cc k c hiu qu. Cc v d v s kt hp ca ch bo phng Ty v candlesticks Phn ny nu ln rng nu kt hp cc ch bo k thut vi nhau c th gip ta d on c mc h tr v khng c s xy ra u. Nhng v d di y s dng k thut phng Ty, phn cn li s ng dng candlesticks.

135

Hnh 11.1. Cui thng 10- 1989, gi vng xuyn qua ngng khng c trong mt xu hng gim tn ti 2 nm, khi n kt thc trn mc $380. Kt hp vi 1 mc khc vo nm 1989 l $357, y l du hiu tng gi. Sau , Financial News Network hi ti nhn nh nh th no v gi vng. Ti ni rng y l mt t iu chnh tng, n s dng li khong $425-$433. u nm 1990, gi vng chm nh $425, v th trng tr li xu th gim. Bng cch no m ti c th xc nh c vng $425-$433 l vng khng c mi trong khi gi vng hin ti ch l $380? Bng cch kt hp nhiu phng tin k thut. C 4 ch bo ch ra vng khng c $425- $433: 1. 50% retracement ca nh $520 trong nm 1987 v y $357 ca nm 1989 l $430. 2. Cc im 1 v 2 trong nm 1989, to thnh y i. Da vo y i ny, ti a ra mc $425. ( khong cch 1 y i c o bng khong cch gia 2 im y v im cao nht). 3. Cui nm 1988, gi cao nht l $433. 4. ng nghip ca ti, John Gambino, ngi dng l thuyt sng Elliot cho rng gi vng ang bc sng th 4. Da vo , iu chnh tng ca gi vng khng th vt qu y ca sng tin th nht vo u nm 1988 l $425. Cc ch bo phng Ty trn u ch ra ngng khng c gn vng gi $425-$433. Tht bi trong vic vt qua vng khng c ny, th trng bulls khng th chng t sc mnh. Khng lu sau , xu hng gim tr li. Nu gi vt qua ngng khng c $433 th sao? Vy th ti phi thay i d on ca mnh v mt th trng tng trong di hn. l l do v sao k thut li c hiu qu. Lun lun c mt mc gi m ti nhn nh v th trng s b sai. Trong trng hp ny, nu gi vng kt thc mc trn $433, ti phi ngh n xu hng gim trong di hn. Chng ta nhn bit th trng bng cc hot ng ca gi. Nu hot ng ny ni rng kin ca ti l sai th ti s iu chnh theo th trng. Ti khng t tin ni rng th trng s thay i theo ti. Bi v th trng lun lun ng.

136

u thng 5, sau khi ng rt gi mnh, ti ngh gi ng c th tm thi bt ln $.14 ( l y ca mt knh tng gi trong vng 1 nm biu hng tun, v cng l mc thp nht cui thng 2 u thng 3). Tuy nhin, tr khi gi ng c y ln trn vng $.1515- $.1520, ti tin rng gi ng hin ti ch l mt xu hng gim nht thi. iu chnh tng t mc $.1505 vo ngy 14 thng 5. Vy lm sao ti bit c vng khng c l$.1515 - $1520. C 4 ch bo nh sau: 1. y l ngng h tr c c test nhiu ln t u thng 3 n ht thng 4 Ti ngh rng mt khi ngng h tr mnh ny b ph v th n s tr thnh ngng khng c mnh. 2. ng MA 65 ngy gn chm mc $.1515. 3. Nhn vo nh ca vng A vo thng 1 v khong trng vng B vo thng 3, chng ta c th thy tm quan trng ca mc $.1515. 4. Fibonacci 32% retracement t nh $.1627 (H) n y $.1444 (L) l $.1514. Mc ny l ni ngng khng c u tin xut hin sau t bn tho.

137

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 23)

Chng 10: Kt hp cc mu hnh nn
Chng ny nghin cu s kt hp ca nhng mu hnh nn gp nhau ti mt vng gi c th to thnh mt im quan trng ca th trng.

138

Trong hnh 10.1, cc ch bo hnh nn kt hp li v d on mt s iu chnh gi v mt nhm nn sau bo hiu s kt thc ca t bn tho. u thng 6, mt hanging man theo sau bi mt du hiu gim gi khc l mt doji. Gi sau gim lin tc cho ti khi cc cy nn khc ch ra mt y quan trng. u tin l mt hammer. Ngy tip theo l engulfing tng gi. Mt vi ngy sau , c mt t bn tho nh nhng ngng h tr do hammer to ra vn c gi vng. t test th 2 to thnh mu hnh tweezers bottom.

Hammer thng 9 trong hnh 10.2 ch ra mt t iu chnh tng. Cui thng 11, gi tri phiu to nn 3 cy nn kt thc t iu chnh. l 1 hanging man, 1 doji v 1 shooting star nh du mt s chm dt hon ton.

139

Hnh 10.3 minh ha mt cy nn c th cho nhiu tn hiu. u thng 4, mt cy nn trng thn di theo sau bi mt thn nn ngn vi bng trn di. l hnh nh ca mt shooting star. Thn nn nh ny kt hp vi thn nn di trc to nn mu hnh harami. Cui cng, nh bng trn ca shooting star (gi cao nht trong ngy) cng khng qua c mc cao nht 1600 trong thng 2.

Hnh 10.4, trong mt vi tun, th trng to ra 1 tweezers bottom, 1 engulfing tng gi v 1 hammer.

140

Hnh 10.5. Na cui thng 7, mt lot cc mu hnh nn bo hiu gim gi gm c 1 doji star theo sau bi 3 hanging man (1, 2, 3). Gia hanging man 1 v 2 c 1 shooting star.

Hnh 10.6 c mt cy nn a ra tn hiu gim gi. nh ca t iu chnh tng trong thng 12 c 1 hanging man chm ti, Hanging man ny cng l mt phn ca mu hnh evening star.

141

Hnh 10.7. T ngy 9 thng 5 n ngy 11 thng 5, mt lot thn nn bo hiu o chiu nh trong vng $1.12. Thn nn trng di vo ngy 9 thng 5 c theo sau bi mt nn thn ngn. Cy nn th 2 ny l 1 hanging man, kt hp vi thn nn trng phin trc to thnh mu hnh harami. Ngy 11 thng 5, gi li mc $1.12 mt ln na. Tip sau l mt shooting star. 3 phin lin tip c gi cao nht bng nhau to nn mt nh ngn hn. Do trong 3 phin c 4 tn hiu gim gi: 1hanging man, 1 harami, 1 shooting star v 1 tweezers top. Th trng gim t nh ny. Mc $1.12 tr thnh mc khng c khi th trng khng th xuyn qua n trong t iu chnh gia thng 6. Cn mt l do na mc $1.12 tr thnh 1 mc quan trng khi n b ph v vo ngy 28 thng 6, n chuyn thnh mc h tr. Quan st ngi sao doji xut hin sau thn nn trng di, ta thy y l mt mu hnh o chiu nh. C ngha l xu hng chnh l xu hng tng kt thc. Hai ngy sau doji, th trng dng nh khng cn sc, c 2 thn nn en ngay sau . Hy nh n mc khng c ngy 9 thng 5 n 11 thng 5. Mc thp nht ca 2 thn nn en sau , ngy 2 v 3 thng 7, ch ra rng ngng khng c c chnh l ngng h tr mi. Th trng khng th gim hn c na. Cho n khi ngng h tr b ph v, s quay li ca th trng tng gi ngn hn bt u t 26 thng 6 vn s tip tc. Trong trng hp ny, s kt hp ca cc nn ti nh 9-11 thng 5 c th pht huy hiu qu nh mt ngng h tr quan trng 1 ln na trong vi thng sau .

142

Hnh 10.8 c mt lot nn ch ra du hiu to nh gia nm 1987. C th l: trong vng 1 thng, c 1 hanging man, 1 doji, 1 dark-cloud cover. Sau dark-cloud cover, th trng selloff, xut hin 1 window. Window ny tr thnh mc khng c trong mt t iu chnh tng nh trc khi tip tc gim. t bn tho ny kt thc vi 1 tweezers bottom v 1 belt- hold tng gi ( mc d nn trng c bng di nhng vn c th xem n l mt belt- hold tng gi).

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 24)

Chng 11: Candlesticks v ng xu hng (trendlines) Chng ny ni v s kt hp gia k thut hnh nn v ng xu hng, ph v ng xu hng, cc vng h tr , khng c c. C nhiu cch xc nh mt xu hng tng hay gim. Cch c bn nht m cc nh phn tch k thut dng l v ng xu hng.

ng h tr, khng c v candlesticks

Hnh 11.1 cho ta hnh nh ca mt ng h tr ang i ln. N c v bng cch ni t nht 2 y ca cc t iu chnh gim. ng ny ch ra rng ngi mua ang chim u th so vi ngi bn v cu ang ngy cng tng ln. l tn hiu ca mt th trng tng gi. Hnh 11.2 l hnh nh ca mt ng khng c hng i xung. ng ny l ng thng ni t nht 2 nh ca cc t iu chnh tng. Lc ny ngi bn ang chim u th, bng chng l h sn sng bn vi mc gi thp hn. l tn hiu cho th trng gim gi. Mc hiu qu ca ng khng c v h tr ty thuc vo s ln m ng ny c test thnh cng, khi lng trong mi t test v khong thi gian ng ny c hiu lc.

143

Hnh 11.3, tuy khng c ch bo hnh nn no, nhng nu xem biu ny bng k thut phng Ty, ta c th nhn ra mu hnh head and shoulders (u v hai vai)

144

Hnh 11.4. y c to ra trong cui thng 3 (gn $173) c test thnh cng trong cc phin cui thng 4. t test ny to ra mt t tng gi. C th, trong 3 phin t 20 n 22 thng 4, 3 cy nn to thnh mu hnh morning star.

Hnh 11.5 cung cp nhng thng tin ng gi v vic s dng ng xu hng v cc ch bo candlesticks. 1. ng h tr 1 (cui thng 1, u thng 2) ch ra rng cc mc gi thp nht trong 2 phin 29 v 31 thng 1 l 2 im u tin ca ng ny. ng ny c test ln th 3 vo ngy 7 thng 2 bng mt hammer. S kt hp ca hai yu t ny to nn mt tn hiu o chiu y. i vi nhng ngi mua ti vng ny, y ca hammer s l mc dng l (stop loss) v thot ra khi th trng. 2. ng h tr 2 (gia thng 1- u thng 3) quan trng hn ng th nht v n tn ti lu hn . Ngy 2 thng 3, ng ny c test ln th 3 bi mt hammer. Bi v xu hng chnh l tng nn hammer v t test thnh cng ngng h tr cho tn hiu mua vo. C th t stop loss ngay di y ca hammer hoc di ng h tr 2. S ph v ng h tr ny s l mt cnh bo rng xu hng tng b b gy. Harami a ra nhng nghi ng rng th trng s gp rc ri. V d ny cho thy tm quan trng ca stop (im dng). Nh ni trn, c nhiu l do tin rng th trng ang i ln cao hn na khi hammer test ng h tr ln th 2. Nhng th trng gim tr li. Bn nn t tin khi giao dch, nhng vn phi quan tm n nhng nghi ng ca mnh. Mt trong s nhng iu quan trng nht khi kinh doanh l qun l ri ro. Vic t stop cng ging nh vic qun l ri ro. 145

Hnh 11.6 c 2 dark- cloud cover 1 v 2 cung cp 1 ng khng c. Dark- cloud cover 3 gn chm ti ng ny, v n xc nhn y chnh l vng m ti cung tng i mnh.

146

Hnh 11.7. cho thy c mt t iu chnh tng (khng c trong hnh) kt thc ti A. N to ra mt vng khng c mc $.6419. Mt doji chn di (long- legged doji) xut hin ti B. Doji ny cng gn mc khng c to ra ti A. y l mt l do cn trng. nh A v B l 2 nh u tin ca ng khng c. Ti C c 1 doji chn di (ging B) gn ng khng c. Sau th trng i xung. Ti D, mt thn nn trng vi bng trn di l mt shooting star. N tht bi ti ng khng c. Thn nn en pha sau thn nn trng va ri to ra mu hnh engulfing gim gi.

Hnh 11.8 c 2 mu hnh engulfing. Mu hnh 1 cung cp nhng tn hiu cn trng nn cho ngi mua. Mt vi tun sau , engulfing gim gi th 2 xut hin. nh ca engulfing ny cng tht bi ti ng khng c.

147

Hnh 11.9 minh ha hnh nh mt ng khng c hng i ln. l ng xu hng kt hp nhiu nh mi. Mc d khng ph bin nh ng khng c hng xung trong hnh 11.1, nhng n c th l mt cng c hiu qu ca nhng ngi mua. Khi th trng chm ti ng ny ln na, ngi mua nn tnh ton trc phng nhng thay i bt li. H c th cht li mt phn, thay i stop hay hoc bn ra ht. Mc d nhng thay i ch l tm thi (do xu hng chnh l tng), s tht bi ti ng ny c th l mt tn hiu sm v mang tnh thm d cho mt xu hng gim tip theo. Hnh 11.10 l hnh nh ca ng h tr hng xung. y cng l mt dng t gp nhng li c th pht huy tc dng vi ngi bn. C th, ng h tr hng xung ch ra mt xu th gim. Nhng khi th trng gi ng ny nh mt mc h tr th ngi bn nn chun b cho s bt gi.

148

Nhn hnh 11.11, u tin ta ch n ng h tr hng xung A, tng t nh trong hnh 11.10. Ni 2 im L1, L2, ta c ng h tr ny. Thn nn L3 hu nh chm ng ny trc khi gi vt ln li. iu ny chng t hiu lc ca ng h tr. Mc gi thp ti L4 khng ch l t test thnh cng ng ny m n cn to ra mu hnh engulfing tng gi. y khng phi l lc mua bi v xu hng chnh l gim. Trong trng hp ny L4 chnh l im bt u ca mt t tng gi, kt thc bng mt doji chn di ( ng hn l mt ricksaw man) v hanging man vi thng sau . Ch mu hnh piercing tng gi trong2 ngy 19, 20 thng 10. Tip theo, hy nhn vo ng khng c hng ln nh trong hnh 11.11. Hot ng gi t 15 thng 1 to ra 1 lot nh. Da vo (v c ng h tr), ta c th thy rng gi ang tng. S tht bi vo ngy 6 thng 3 ti ng khng c hng ln cho nhng ngi mua tn hiu hnh ng. Ch rng t test ng khng c ln th 3 l 1 shooting star vi bng trn rt di v thn ngn. 3 ngy sau shooting star l hanging man. Kt hp cc yu t (th trng quay li vng khng c, shooting star v hanging man), ta c tn hiu r rng v mt th trng ny s sm iu chnh.

149

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 25)

Chng 11: Candlesticks v ng xu hng (trendlines)(/br) Chng ny ni v s kt hp gia k thut hnh nn v ng xu hng, ph v ng xu hng, cc vng h tr , khng c c.

Springs v upthrusts
Hu nh, trong phn ln thi gian, th trng khng tn ti trong mt xu hng r rng m thng l dao ng trong di hp hay ni cch khc, th trng sideways. Khi th trng khng phi ang tng m cng khng phi ang gim. Ting Nht gi trng thi yn bnh, tnh lng l wa. Ti ngh th trng ang theo xu hng nm ngang cng l ang trong trng thi wa. Ngi ta c chng rng th trng khng c xu hng chim khong 70%. V vy chng ta cn phi dng cc cng c phn tch k thut bit c im vo th trng hp l. Trong trng hp ny, c mt s cng c rt hiu qu. Chng c gi l springs v upthrust da trn nhng khi nim c Richard Wyckoff pht trin vo u th k 20. Nh ni trn, khi th trng trong trng thi wa, vic mua bn khng din ra si ni, theo xu hng nm ngang. i khi, gi c th tng hoc gim qua mc cao nht hoc thp nht. Khi , c hi mua bn xut hin. C th, nu gi ph v mc khng c hay h tr, chnh l lc trade. Lc ny, c mt du hiu mnh l th trng s quay li vng giao dch c.

150

Hnh 11.12, ngng khng c c gi vng. Gi sau quay tr li di cc nh b ph v. Trong trng hp ny, bn nn bn ra. Kiu ph v gi ny gi l upthrust. Nu upthrust gp 1 ch bo hnh nn gim gi, l lc nn bn. Ngc li vi upthrust l spring (hnh 11.13). Spring xut hin khi gi i qua cc y ri quay v bn trn ng h tr. Ni cch khc, y mi khng c gi. Nn mua vo nu gi ln cao hn cc y c.

Hnh 11.14 l mt v d hay v upthrust kt hp vi candlesticks. Ngy A nh du gi bt u dch chuyn theo xu hng nm ngang v 1 ngng khng c ( ch hanging man ngy trc cho tn hiu kt thc xu hng tng). 2 im L1, L2 xc nh y ca vng giao dch. C upthrust vo ngy B. nh trc , ti A, b ph v nhng nh mi li khng c gi. 151

Tht bi ny l mt tn hiu gim gi. Hn na, trc ngy B l mt shooting star. i khi shooting star khng cho tn hiu gim, nhng hanging man xut hin trong ngy B. Vi mt upthrust ti B chng ta bit c y ca di sideways ny,chnh l y to bi L1, L2.

Hnh 11.15 cho thy vo ngy 1 thng 5, nh mi c thit lp cho CRB chm ngng 248.44. Ngy 10 thng 5, th trng bulls c gng y mc ny ln 25ticks nhng vn khng th gi nh mi ny. S tht bi ny to thnh upthrust. Ngy 10 thng 5 cng l mt shooting star. N bo hiu kt thc mt xu hng tng ngn hn.

152

Hnh 11.16. Gi ngy 5 thng 4 vt qua nh ca u thng 3, khong $5.40. Tuy nhin th trng tng khng th gi li nh mi. l upthrust. Hanging man trong phin sau cng xc nhn tn hiu gim gi ca upthrust ny.

Hnh 11.17, trong thng 7 nm 1987, CRB to y bng mu hnh harami gn mc 220. y ny c test thnh cng bi mt thn nn trng di ngay tun sau. Trong qu 3 ca nm 1987, mc 220 tm thi b ph v bng mt thn nn trng di l belt-hold tng gi. Th trng nhanh chng bt ln li, to ra mt hammer v mt spring. Mc gi ti spring test li nh trc , gn 235.

153

Hnh 11.18. y u thng 1 b xuyn qua vo cui thng 2. Ngy ca spring cng l mt hammer. Cc tn hiu tng gi ny cung cp cho cc nh phn tch k thut v s quay li mt nh cao hn ca vng giao dch thng 1 v 2. t iu chnh tng ny gn chm mc $78 vi 1 evening doji star.

Hnh 11.19 ch ra sau mt mu hnh harami, th trng xung dc. N kt thc bi mt hammer

154

1. Hammer ny l mt t test thnh cng ngng h tr trc $.50. Mt t tng nh tr li ti hammer 2. Vi hammer ny th trng vt qua y ca thng 6. Nhng th trng bears khng th duy tr c y ny. Vy mt spring, thm vo l mt hammer, 1 tweezers bottom cho tn hiu tng gi.

Hnh 11.20. Trong sut tun bt u t 12 thng 3, gi chm y $5.96 to thnh mt engulfing tng gi. Th trng bt u iu chnh. Ngy 3 thng 4, gi ph v mc ny v to y mi. Spring c hnh thnh v y ny khng gi c lu. Ngoi ra, y trong phin cn to ra engulfing tng gi. V sao spring v upthrust li pht huy tc dng nh vy? tr li, ti lin h ti cu tr li ca Napoleon khi ng ta c hi rng ng thch i qun no nht, l i qun chin thng. Nu coi th trng l mt trn chin m 2 i qun l bulls v bears. Vng m h ang tranh ginh chnh l vng gi sideway. Bears phi gi ng khng c cn bulls phi gi ng h tr. Lc s c mt scouting parties ca nhng nh u t ln, t chc thng mi, k c c nhn gim st 2 bn. V d, bulls c gng y gi ln qua vng khng c. Khi , ta phi xem cc ng thi ca bears. Nu scouting parties tng gi c th ng qun trong vng ca i phng (gn trn ngng khng c trong vng vi ngy), khi nu nhng i qun bulls mi cng tham gia th th trng s dch chuyn ln cao hn. Nu cuc tin cng c duy tr ( th mc khng c c s thnh mc h tr mi), i qun bulls nm quyn kim sot th trng. V d v scouting parties tng gi c th hin trong hnh 11.21.

155

Cui thng 5, nh $3.54 c to. Rt nhiu scouting parties tng gi ang c gng vt qua vng $3.54. Bulls thnh cng khi y gi ln mc $3.54 trong phin ngy 4 thng 4. Bulls khng th tin cao hn vo vng t ca bears. Bulls b nh bi, quay tr li y ca vng giao dch $3.54. Tn hiu m candlesticks cung cp ni ln rng bears vn cn ang nm gi th trng l mt engulfing gim gi. u thng 6, shooting star ngy 12,13 thng 6 khng thay i c g. Sau , mt scouting parties tng gi xut hin u thng 4. Tht bi khi khng gi c v tr pha trn nh gia thng 3, bulls b y li. Kt qu l mt t test li vng y cui thng 3. S tht bi ny c 1 shooting star xc nhn.

156

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 26)

Chng 11: Candlesticks v ng xu hng (trendlines) Chng ny ni v s kt hp gia k thut hnh nn v ng xu hng, ph v ng xu hng, cc vng h tr , khng c c.

L thuyt i cc
Ngi Nht c cu: A red lacquer dish needs no decoration, tm hiu l mt chic da sn mi th khng cn trang tr g thm. T tng v v p n thun cng chnh l ct li ca l thuyt k thut m ti thng s dng vi biu hnh nn. n gin nhng rt hiu qu - mc h tr c s l mc khng c mi v ngc li. Ti gi y l the change of polarity principle (l thuyt i cc). Hiu qu ca ng ny ty thuc vo: 1. S ln ngng khng c/ h tr c c test. 2. Khi lng trong mi t test. y cng chnh l l thuyt m trong bt c cun sch v phn tch k thut no cng ni n. bit c tnh u vit ca l thuyt ny, hy xem nhng v d khc nhau trong nhng thi im khc nhau.

157

Hnh 11.24. 4 trng hp ng khng c c thnh ng h tr mi.

158

Hnh 11.25. im gi thp nht ca ng Yn cui nm 1987 v gia nm 1988 to ra mt vng khng c quan trng trong c nm 1989.

Hnh 11.26. Ngng khng c c gn 27,000 trong nm 1987, khi b ph v, tr thnh mt ngng h tr quan trng. Chng ta thy quy lut ny cc v d trc trong biu daily, weekly v monthly, by gi hy xem trong biu intra-day.

159

Hnh 11.27. T u n gia thng 7, ngng khng c mc $.72. Ngy 23 thng 7, ngng ny b xuyn thng, ngay lp tc ngng $.72 tr thnh ngng h tr. nh $.7290 ca ngy 24, 25 b ph v, n cng thnh ngng h tr.

160

Hnh 11.28.Cui nm 1989, u nm 1990, c mt t iu chnh. Na u nm 1990, th trng trong di hp vi ngng h tr l gn mc $1.85. Khi ngng ny b ph v vo thng 6 nm 1990, ngng h tr tip theo l bao nhiu? Gi tng t $1.25 n $2.05 nn kh c th xc nh c ngng h tr chnh xc cho t iu chnh cui 1989, u 1990. Tuy nhin, khi mc $1.85 b ph, ngng h tr c mong i l s gn $1.65. C 2 l do ti chn mc ny. Mt l, 50% retracement ca t iu chnh $.80 trc l gn $1.65. Hai l, ngng khng c c vng A, gn $1.65. Nh vy y c th l ngng h tr mi. Tht vy, th trng bn tho trong vng vi ngy sau v dng mc $1.66. Trong bt k biu no, daily, weekly, monthly, hay k c lu hn th bn cng c th thy c ng dng ca l thuyt ny. Ti sao n n gin m li hot ng hiu qu nh vy? Ta bit, mc tiu ca phn tch k thut l o xc cm v hnh ng ca nhng nh u c v u t. V vy, cng c o lng cng tt th hiu qu n mang li cng cao. L thuyt ny hot ng c hiu qu l v n da trn l thuyt tm l sound trading. L thuyt tm l ny nghin cu cch m mi ngi s phn ng khi th trng i ngc li v th ca h ang c, hoc khi h tin rng h b qua mt bin ng ln ca th trng. Mc gi no l quan trng nht trn biu ? C phi l im to nn cc bin c, hay l cc y? Hay l mc ng ca ca ngy hm qua? Khng phi. Mc gi quan trng nht trn bt c biu no chnh l im m bn tham gia th trng (enter point). Mi ngi ai cng c bit ch n mc gi m ti h bn hay mua. Do , cng nhiu giao dch c thc hin ti mt mc gi th cng c nhiu ngi quan tm n mc gi . Nh vy iu ny lin quan n vic ngng h tr c thnh ngng khng c mi, v ngc li. Hy nhn hnh 11.29 c cu tr li.

161

Cui thng 12, mt t bn tho mnh kt thc ti $5.33 (A). Trong mt t test mc ny, c t nht 3 nhm nh u t s cn nhc vic mua vo: Nhm 1 l nhng ngi ang i th trng n nh li sau t bn tho trc v nhng ai ngh rng ngng h tr l $5.33 (y ti A vo ngy 28 thng 12). Mt vi ngy sau , t test thnh cng ti B c th thu ht c nhng ngi mua mi. Nhm 2 gm nhng ngi trc y mua, nhng bn ra trong t selloff cui thng 12. Trong t iu chnh t B n B1 vo gia thng 1, mt vi ngi mua trc thot khi th trng cho rng nhn nh ca h v th trng bulls l chnh xc, ch l h xc nh sai thi im bn m thi. By gi chnh l lc mua vo. H mun thanh minh cho nhn nh ca mnh. H ang ch th trng hi phc ti C mua vo li. Nhm 3 l nhng ngi mua ti A v B. H cng nhn thy t iu chnh t B n B1 v mun mua thm nu c mt mc gi hp l. Ti C, h c gi tt v th trng ang mc h tr. V vy, c nhiu ngi cng mua ti C. Ti D, h li tip tc mua vo. Sau , nhng ngi mua gp rc ri. Vo thng 2, gi qua vng h tr A,B,C v D. Bt c ai mua ngng h tr u ang thua l. H mun thot khi th trng vi t tn tht nht. Nhng ngi ny s thot khi v th mua ca h. Do , nhng ngi mua A, B, C v D by gi l nhng ngi bn. l v sao ngng h tr c thnh ngng khng c mi. Ngc li ta cng c th gii thch c v sao ngng khng c c li thnh ngng h tr mi. Nhng ng s n gin ca l thuyt ny nh la bn. N ch hot ng tt khi kt hp vi cc ch bo hnh nn. V d, vng E c 1 doji sau 1 thn nn trng di bo hiu rc ri. Ch bo hnh nn kt hp vi ng khng c xc nhn iu . Trng hp tng t xy ra ti F.

162

Hnh 11.30, nh A v B to thnh ngng h tr cui nm 1986 v nm 1989. ng h tr ny c test 2 ln vi 2 hammer.

Hnh 11.31, trong thng 9, u thng 10, ti vng A v B, th trng duy tr mc h tr $1,230. Th trng xung di mc vo ngy 9 thng 10, ngay lp tc ng ny tr thnh ngng khng c. Sau ln tht bi u tin ngng khng c, ti C, gi gim cho ti khi c mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Mt t iu chnh nh sau , mt ln na xuyn qua ngng khng c $1,230. Hn na, cn c 1 dark-cloud cover.

163

Biu k thut hnh nn Nht Bn (Phn 27)

Chng 12: Candlesticks v cc mc retracement
Th trng khng phi lc no cng tng hay gim lin tc m n thng iu chnh trc khi quay tr li xu hng chnh. Mt vi mc retracement thng dng nh 50%, Fibinacci 38,2%, 68,1%. Fibonacci l mt nh ton hc th k 13. ng xy dng mt dy nhng con s m nu chia nhng con s ny cho so ng lin trc hay lin sau n, ta c cc t s Fibonacci, gm c 61,8%, 38,2% (nghch o l 1,618 v 2,618). Mc 50% cng thng dng v n cng c s dng bi nhng ngi dng Gann, l thuyt sng Elliot hay l l thuyt Dow.

Hnh 12.3. Cc retracement c th gip phn on vng khng c trong mt th trng gim.50% retracement ca gi vng trong vng 1 nm tr thnh mc khng c. Quan st 3 trng hp m ng 50% retracement kt hp vi candlesticks cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu nh. Retracement 1. nh ti A vo cui nm 1987 ($502) to ra bi mt engulfing gim gi. t bn tho bt u cui nm 1987, kt thc vi mu hnh piercing tng gi ti B mc $425. Da vo 50% retracement ca t bn tho ny, t A n B, mc khng c c th xy ra $464.Vy ngng khng c c xc nh 164

l $464 v cn thm s xc nhn bng mt ch bo gim gi ca candlesticks. Mt engulfing xut hin ti C, ti gi t $469, sai lch $5. Th trng tip tc gim xung. Retracement 2. t bn tho bt u t C kt thc vi mu hnh morning star ti D.50% retracement t C $469 n D $492 cho ta vng khng c $430. Ti mc mt ch bo hnh nn s xut hin. Gi vng chm vng E $433. Trong sut thi gian ny (tun t 28 thng 11 n 5 thng 12) ti E, gi vng dch chuyn $.50, xut hin mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Mt t gim gi khc bt u ti E. Retracement 3. T nh E ti y F nm 1989 ($357), gi rt $76. Mt iu th v l trong cc t bn tho A-B, C-D, E-F, gi u gim xp x $77. Khng c ch bo hnh nn no xc nhn y vo ngy 5 thng 6. t test y ny ln th hai din ra vo thng 9 khi gi vng xuyn qua mc ny. V sao? V cui nm 1989, gi vng vt qua ngng khng c ca 2 nm. Thm vo , vng to ra 1 y vng chc vo nm 1989 bng y i $357. Ta phi quan st mc 50% retracement ca nhng vng ln hn, ngha l 50% retracement ca ton b cc ln gim gi t 1987 (nh A) cho ti 1989 (y F). N cung cp mt ngng khng c $430. Gn mc ny, $425 trong tun 20 thng 11 ti vng G, th trng cho tn hiu cnh bo rng xu hng tng ang gp rc ri. Du hiu l mt harami, mt phn ca mu hnh ny l hanging man. Mt vi tun sau , tun 22 thng 1, nh ca t dch chuyn ny chm $425. Hot ng gi to ra mt hanging man v gi vng gim t . Hnh 12.4. S kt hp gia tweezers bottom v harami mc $18.85 (A) l im khi u ca t iu chnh tng $3.50. t iu chnh ny kt thc ti $22.15 (B) vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi. 50% retracement ca vng A-B to thnh ngng khng c $20.36. Ti vng C, c mt piercing tng gi mc $20.15. Th trng sau c mt t iu chnh nh t C. t iu chnh ny dng li ti D khi c darkcloud cover. nh ca D $21.25 nm trong khong 10 ticks ca mc 50% retracement ca xu hng gim trc B-C.

165

Hnh 12.5. Ta thy 61,8% retracement ca t iu chnh A-B l $5.97. Mc gi ny rt gn vi ngng khng c cui thng 1, u thng 2 l $5.95. Mc khng c c thnh mc h tr mi. Khi gi tr li mc ny, ngy 2 v 3 thng 4, mc $5.97 c gi lm ngng h tr. Nhng phin ny to thnh mu hnh harami nh u xu hng gim trc chm dt. Sau , ngng ny c test li mt ln na vo gia thng 4 v th trng tng cao.

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Hnh 12.6a. T y L thng 7 n nh H trong thng 10, gi du th c mt t iu chnh $21.70. Mc 50% retracement ca t iu chnh ny l $29.05. V vy, da trn l thuyt mc 50% retracement ca t iu chnh tng l ngng h tr nn ta i mt ch bo tng gi t candlesticks gn vng $29.05. Trong t bn tho t nh ca thng 10, 23 thng 10, sau khi gi chm y $29.30. Mt hammer xut hin trong biu daily. Th trng iu chnh $5. Trong biu intra-day (hnh 12.6), hot ng gi trong nhng gi u tin to ra hammer. Trong biu daily v intra-day u c nhng hammer. Trng hp ny rt him v rt c ngha. Xem biu intra-day t iu chnh bt u t hammer v kt thc khi mt hanging man xut hin vo ngy 26 thng 10.

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