Bi 1

Bin c v Xc sut ca bin c

Php th v bin c
Php th ngu nhin
L s thc hin mt s iu kin xc nh (th
nghim c th hay quan st hin tng no
), c th cho nhiu kt qu khc nhau. Cc
kt qu ny khng th d bo chc chn
c. Mt php th thng c lp li nhiu
ln.


Php th v bin c
Khng gian mu (KG bin c s cp)
Tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy ra khi
thc hin php th gi l khng gian mu (hay
khng gian bin c s cp), k hiu O.
Mi kt qu ca php th, e, gi l bin c s
cp.
Mt tp con ca khng gian mu gi l bin
c.
Php th v bin c
Cc k hiu
- O: khng gian mu.
- e: bin c s cp
- A, B, C, : bin c
- |A|: s phn t ca bin c A
Php th v bin c
V d
- Tung ng xu
O ={S,N}; e
1
=S, e
2
=N
- Tung con xc sc
O ={e
1
,, e
6
}
e
i
=Xut hin mt th i, i=1,,6
- o chiu cao (v: cm)

( )
0, 250 O= c
Quan h gia cc bin c
Tng 2 bin c
Xt A v B l hai bin c trong khng gian
mu O, th bin c tng ca A v B, k hiu
A+B (hay AB), l tp cha nhng kt qu
trong O thuc v A hoc B.
A B
A + B
O
Quan h gia cc bin c
Tch ca hai bin c
Xt A v B l hai bin c trong khng gian
mu O, th bin c tch ca A v B, k hiu AB
(hay AB), l tp cha nhng kt qu trong O
thuc v A v B.

A B AB
O
Quan h gia cc bin c
Bin c xung khc
Hai bin c A v B gi l xung khc vi nhau
nu AB=C.

A
B
O
AB= C
Quan h gia cc bin c
Bin c i lp
Bin c khng xy ra khi bin c A xy ra gi
l bin c i lp vi bin c A, k hiu .



Bin c chc chn - O.
Bin c khng th - C.
A
A
O
A
Quan h gia cc bin c
V d. Tung mt ln con xc sc cn i v
ng cht.
Khng gian mu: O =[1,2,3,4,5,6]


t A = Xut hin mt c s im chn
B = Xut hin mt c s im t nht l 4
A = [2,4,6]; B=[4,5,6]
Quan h gia cc bin c
O = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6]
5] 3, [1, A =
AB [4, 6] =
A B [2, 4, 5, 6] + =
A A [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] + = = O
Bin c i lp:

Bin c tch:

Bin c tng:
AB [5] =
3] 2, [1, B =
Xc sut ca bin c
Xc sut
Kh nng mt bin c
s xy ra.
0 P(A) 1 vi mi bin c A

Khng th
xy ra
Chc
chn
xy ra
.5
1
0
nh ngha theo quan im c in
nh ngha xc sut theo quan im c in
Xt php th ngu nhin c khng gian mu O.
Gi s tt c cc kt qu trong O u ng kh
nng xy ra, th xc sut xy ra bin c A
( )
A
P A = =
O O
Socac khanang thoa ieu kien cua A
Tong sokhanang trong khong gian mau
nh ngha theo quan im c in
V d
1. Tung 1 con xc sc cn i v ng cht,
tnh xc sut xut hin mt l.
2. Mt lp hc c 300 sinh vin trong c 80
sinh vin n. Chn ngu nhin 1 sinh vin,
tnh xc sut chn c sinh vin n.
2. Mt hp c 7 qu cu v 4 qu cu
xanh. Chn ngu nhin 3 qu cu. Tnh xc
sut chn c 2 qu cu v 1 qu cu
xanh.
Xc sut ca bin c - nh ngha theo
quan im c in
nh ngha theo li c in c 2 nhc im
sau:
- Tt c cc kt qu phi ng kh nng xy
ra.
- Khng gian mu O phi hu hn.
nh ngha theo quan im Thng k
nh ngha theo quan im thng k
Xt php th ngu nhin c khng gian mu O v
A c O. Thc hin php th n ln c lp, thy bin c
A sut hin n(A) ln. n(A) gi l tn s sut hin bin
c A, v n(A)/n l tn sut xy ra A. Khi xc sut
xy ra A l


Gii hn ca tn sut xy ra bin c A trong mt s php th rt ln, n.

( )
( ) lim
n
n A
P A
n

= =
Socakhanang trong tong thethoa ieu kien cua A
Tong sokhanang trong tong the
nh ngha theo quan im Thng k
V d. Tung ng xu.
Xc sut xut hin mt S: P(S)=1/2
Xc sut xut hin mn H: P(H)=1/2
Dng nh ngha theo quan im thng k kim
chng.

Ngi th nghim S ln tung S ln
sp
Tn sut
Buffon 4040 2048 0.5080
Pearson 12000 6019 0.5016
Pearson 24000 12012 0.5005
nh ngha theo quan im Hnh hc
nh ngha theo quan im hnh hc
Xt mt php th ng kh nng, khng gian mu c
v hn phn t v c biu din thnh mt min
hnh hc O c o xc nh ( di, din tch, th
tch). Bin c A c O c biu din bi min hnh hc
A. Khi , xc sut xy ra A

(
(
)
)
)
(
mes A
P A
mes
=
O
=
O
oo mien A
oo mien
nh ngha theo quan im Hnh hc
V d. (Bi ton tu cp bn)
Hai tu thy cp bn 1 cch c lp nhau
trong mt ngy m. Bit rng thi gian tu
th nht li cng bc hng l 4 gi,
ca tu th hai l 6 gi. Tm xc sut mt
trong hai tu phi ch cp bn.

nh ngha theo quan im Hnh hc
V d. (Bi ton tu cp bn)
x (gi): thi im tu th nht cp bn.
y (gi): thi im tu th hai cp bn.
A = Mt trong hai tu phi ch cp bn
Nu tu 1 cp bn trc th tu 2 phi ch
y x s 4
Nu tu 2 cp bn trc th tu 1 phi ch
x y s 6
Vy A xy ra khi -4 s x y s 6, th hin min gch cho
Vy
( )
2 2 2
2
1
24 18 20
2
( ) 0.3715
24
A
S
P A
S
O
+
= = =
Tnh cht c bn ca xc sut
1. A c O:


2. Xt A c O, e
i
l cc bin c s cp



3.


4.


P(A) 1 ) A P( =
( )
( )
i
A
P A P e =

0 ( ) 1 P A s s
( ) 1, ( ) 0 P P O = C =
Cng thc cng xc sut


V d.
Mt b bi ty c 52 l, rt ngu nhin 1 l

t:
A = Rt c con t
B = Rt c l

+ = + P(A B) P(A) P(B) P(AB)
Cng thc cng xc sut
P( + t) = P() + P(t) - P( t)
= 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52
Phn d
khi giao 2
bin c
en
Mu
Loi

Tng
t 2 2 4
Khc 24 24 48
Tng 26 26 52
Cng thc xc sut iu kin
Xc sut c iu kin l xc sut xy ra mt
bin c, cho trc mt bin c khc xy ra


=
P(AB)
P(A|B)
P(B)
=
P(AB)
P(B|A)
P(A)
Xc sut xy ra A vi
iu kin B xy ra
Xc sut xy ra B vi
iu kin A xy ra
Cng thc xc sut iu kin
V d. Kho st cc xe -t trong thnh ph,
thy c 70% c h thng iu ha (AC) v
40% c my chi nhc (CD). 20% c c iu
ha v my chi nhc. Chn ngu nhin 1 xe
-t, bit chn c xe c my iu ha,
hi xc sut xe c my chi nhc l bao
nhiu?
Gi:
AC = Chn c xe c iu ha
CD = Chn c xe c dn CD
Yu cu bi: Tnh P(CD|AC)?
Cng thc xc sut iu kin
Khng CD
CD Tng
AC
.2 .5 .7
Khng AC
.2 .1
.3
Tng .4 .6 1.0
= = =
P(CD.AC) .2
P(CD|AC) .2857
P(AC) .7
70% c iu
ha
40% c dn
CD
20% c iu
ha + CD
Cng thc xc sut iu kin
Khng CD
CD Tng
AC
.2 .5 .7
Khng AC
.2 .1
.3
Tng .4 .6 1.0
Cho trc AC, ta ch cn xt 70% xe c iu ha. Do ,
20% s xe c dn CD. 20% of 70% s l 28.57%.
.
= = =
P(CD AC) .2
P(CD|AC) .2857
P(AC) .7
Cng thc nhn xc sut
Cng thc nhn xc sut cho hai bin c A v
B


Ta cng c

P(AB) P(A|B)P(B) =
P(AB) P(B|A) P(A) =
Cng thc nhn xc sut
Cng thc nhn xc sut cho n bin c
A
1
,A
2
,,A
n
1 2 1 3 1 2 1
1
2
2
1
)
( ) ( | ) ( | )
(
( | )
n
n n
A
P A P A A P A A A P A A
P A
A
A
A

. =
. .
Cng thc nhn xc sut
V d

P(t ") = P(t)P(|t)

4 2 2
52 4 52
| || |
| |
\ .\ .
= =
Cng thc nhn xc sut
V d
Mt l hng c 50 sn phm, trong c 6
sn phm km cht lng. Mt khch hng
trc khi mua l hng chn cch kim tra sau:
chn ngu nhin ln lt khng hon li 4 sn
phm.Nu thy c bt k sn phm km cht
lng no th loi l hng. Tnh xc sut
khch hng chp nhn l hng.
S c lp gia cc bin c
Hai bin c A v B gi l c lp khi v ch khi:


Bin c A c lp vi bin c B khi xc sut ca
bin c ny khng nh hng n bin c kia
Nu A v B c lp, th
P(AB) P(A) P(B) =
P(A) B) | P(A =
P(B) A) | P(B =
S c lp gia cc bin c
V d
Trong kho st v ni tht xe -t trong thnh
ph, 70% xe c my iu ha (AC), 40% c
my chi nhc(CD), v 20% c c hai.
Hi AC v CD c c lp hay khng?
S c lp gia cc bin c
Khng CD CD Tng
AC
.2 .5 .7
Khng AC
.2 .1
.3
Tng .4 .6 1.0
P(AC CD) = 0.2
P(AC) = 0.7
P(CD) = 0.4
P(AC)P(CD) = (0.7)(0.4) = 0.28
P(AC CD) = 0.2 P(AC)P(CD) = 0.28
Do hai bin c AC v CD khng c lp.
S c lp gia cc bin c
V d. Tung mt ln con xc sc cn i v ng cht.
Khng gian mu: O =[1,2,3,4,5,6]

t A = Xut hin mt c s im chn
B = Xut hin mt c s im b hn 4
C = Xut hin mt 1 hoc 2 im
D = Xut hin mt 1 hoc 6 im

A = [2,4,6]; B=[1,2,3]; C=[1,2]; D=[1,6]
Hy kim tra tnh c lp ca cc bin c A, B, C, D.
Cng thc xc sut y
H y cc bin c
H A
1
,A
2
,,A
n
gi l h
y cc bin c nu


1 2
1
n
i j
A
A
A A
A i j n
+ +.+ = O
=

C s = s

A
1
A
2
A
3
A
4
Cng thc xc sut y
Cho l h y cc bin c, v B l mt
bin c c lin quan n h ny. Xc sut xy
ra B


Tng qut, xt A
1
,A
2
,,A
n
l h y v B l
bin c lin quan

, A A
( ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) P B P A P B A P A P B A = +
1 1
1
( ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
n
i i n n
i
P B P A P B A P A P B A P A P B A
=
+. = + =

Cng thc xc sut y

( ) ( ')
( ) ( ) ( ')
( ) ( | ) ( ') ( | ') =
B A B A B
P B P A B P A B
P A P B A P A P B A
= +
= +
+
Cng thc xc sut y
V d
Mt nh my sn xut bng n c 3 phn
xng sx. Bit rng t l bng h do tng
phn xng lm ra tng ng l 5%, 7% v
10%. Mt khc hng mua bng n ca nh
my sn xut. Tnh xc sut khch hng mua
c bng h.
Cng thc Bayes
Xt A
1
,A
2
,,A
n
l h y v B l bin c
lin quan.
Cng thc Bayes


( ) ( | )
( | ) , 1
)
,
(
,
i i
i
P A P B A
P A B
B
i n
P
. = =
Cng thc Bayes
V d
Mt hc sinh i hc t nh n trng c th
i bng hai con ng khc nhau. Bit rng
nu hc sinh i theo con ng A th kh
nng b kt xe l 15% v bng 20% nu i
theo con ng B. Hc sinh chn ngu nhin
mt con ng i. Bit rng hc sinh b
kt xe, hi xc sut hc sinh i con ng
th nht l bao nhiu?
Cng thc Bayes
V d
C 10 thm, trong c 4 thm c thng. Sinh
vin A bt u tin, B bt sau.
a) Hi c cng bng khng ?
b) Nu B c thng, tnh xc sut A c
thng.