Lm sng thng k

Phn phi chun

Nguyn Vn Tun
Tun va qua ti nhn c mt cu hi rt cn bn, m ti thy cn phi gii
thch r rng, v y l c s cho nhng phn tch thng k. Khi ph trch mc ny, ti
gi nh bn c bit qua vi iu cn bn v thng k v xc sut, nhng c l gi
nh khng ng, v theo cu hi ca bn c ny, vn c nhiu ngi cha hc qua,
hoc hc qua m khng hiu. Cng ging nh ti ngy xa, hc qua thng k m
khng hiu v n qu tru tng. Khng dm tha thy gii thch khng r, nhng c
l v khi ging thy khng cp n ng dng nn hc ch hc ch chng bit lm
g.
Gi anh Tun! Ti l mt bc s gi, nn khng rnh v thng k g c, v hi xa ti
khng c hc thng k. Nhng by gi lm nghin cu ti mi thy s quan trng ca
n. Ti tm sch t hc, nhng c hoi vn khng hiu! Trong khi sp u hng
tnh c ti vo trang nh ykhoanet v c c tt c nhng bi ging ca anh. Phi ni
tht anh ging hay lm, qu r rng, lm cho mt bc s gi nh ti m cng hiu c
cc khi nim thng k, v ti thy yu ci mn hc ny! C l anh khng bit rng anh
gip cho ti rt nhiu. Xin cm n anh.
Ti rt mong c tip lot bi ging lm sng thng k ca anh. Nhn y ti mun
hi anh mt cu nh. Trong my bi va qua, anh nhc n phn phi chun v con
s 1,96 tnh khong tin cy 95% rt nhiu ln. Vy xin hi anh, con s 1,96 ny n t
u v phn phi chun l phn phi g? Xin cm n anh trc.
TV
Xin thnh tht cm n bn c TV v nhng cu ch y khch l. Vit ra m
c ngi c v theo di th tht l qu lm. cng l ng c ti vit tip. Nhn
dp ny, ti mun mn cu hi gii thch v mt nh lut phn phi tr ct ca
thng k hc: l phn phi chun.
Th tht vi cc bn, ngy xa, mi ln nghe n hai ch distribution (phn
phi) l ti thy lng bng trong u ri, v khng bit n c ngha l g. Ci kh ca
mt sinh vin ngoi quc nh ti (tc l trnh ting Anh lc cn km, nhc nhc)
gia ng mn ngi bn x, ti khng dm hi thy, s b mng l dt. Sau ny, ti
mi nghim ra rng bit c mnh dt l mt iu cc k c ch v cng l mt hnh
phc. Ci dt ca ti bt u t ch distribution, m ti thy cha c sch gio khoa no
gii thch c th c, hay gii thch theo kiu ton hc rt tru tng.

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 c th ha vn , bn c c th lm mt th nghim (hay tng tng mt

th nghim) n gin nh sau: chn ngu nhin 100 ng nghip hay sinh vin, o chiu
cao ca h. Kt qu m bn c s thu thp c c th nh sau:
176.1
167.7
164.5
172.2
171.1
167.3
168.9
164.0
157.9
157.0

176.0
155.6
171.5
165.8
162.0
156.1
166.2
171.7
166.8
160.8

160.6
165.1
151.9
172.4
158.6
162.5
155.3
162.7
157.2
165.2

158.4
170.0
166.0
162.0
164.4
158.4
157.9
155.8
158.8
161.8

165.3
167.4
166.9
149.6
176.6
156.8
167.4
161.4
162.7
163.8

158.0
166.4
162.0
159.9
159.5
167.8
171.8
163.4
157.1
164.2

155.3
162.3
152.5
157.0
149.9
168.7
170.2
148.3
165.9
174.7

164.2
167.1
147.6
154.6
164.0
164.6
178.7
160.9
162.7
158.2

157.2
154.0
163.6
162.3
162.2
170.6
171.7
156.1
176.7
162.3

159.0
159.3
163.5
171.2
162.0
165.2
171.5
165.6
172.1
168.9

Trc mt rng con s nh th, chng ta phi lm g? Cu hi cn ty

thuc vo mc ch ca nghin cu. Nhng y, chng ta mun m t chiu cao v
huyt p ca 100 i tng. Trong vn chng, m t c ngha l dng t ng ni
n nhng kha cnh ca mt s kin m trong ting Anh n tm gn trong nhng ch
ci W: what (s kin g), when (xy ra u), where (xy ra lc no), v kh hn cht l
why (ti sao s kin xy ra). Trong khoa hc, chng ta cng m t s kin vi nhng
kha cnh , nhng chng ta s dng c t ng v con s. V m t bng con s, chng
ta cn hi thm nhng cu hi nh bao nhiu (how many hay how much) nh: chiu
cao thp nht v cao nht l bao nhiu, chiu cao trung bnh bao nhiu, dao ng cao
thp bao nhiu, v.v
Vi hng trm con s nh th, rt kh cm nhn c vn . Mt cch khc tt
hn l chng ta sp xp s liu t thp nht n cao nht nh sau:
147.6
155.6
157.9
159.5
162.0
163.5
165.1
166.8
168.9
171.8

148.3
155.8
157.9
159.9
162.2
163.6
165.2
166.9
170.0
172.1

149.6
156.1
158.0
160.6
162.3
163.8
165.2
167.1
170.2
172.2

149.9
156.1
158.2
160.8
162.3
164.0
165.3
167.3
170.6
172.4

151.9
156.8
158.4
160.9
162.3
164.0
165.6
167.4
171.1
174.7

152.5
157.0
158.4
161.4
162.5
164.2
165.8
167.4
171.2
176.0

154.0
157.0
158.6
161.8
162.7
164.2
165.9
167.7
171.5
176.1

154.6
157.1
158.8
162.0
162.7
164.4
166.0
167.8
171.5
176.6

155.3
157.2
159.0
162.0
162.7
164.5
166.2
168.7
171.7
176.7

155.3
157.2
159.3
162.0
163.4
164.6
166.4
168.9
171.7
178.7

Cch sp xp ny (ting Anh gi l sort) cho chng ta thy ngi c chiu cao
thp nht l 148.7 cm, v ngi cao nht l 178.7 cm. Nhng nu nhn k, chng ta cng
ch rng phn ln cc i tng c chiu cao khong 160 n 165 cm.
n y th cu hi t ra l c bao nhiu i tng vi mi chiu cao t 160 n
165 cm, v c bao nhiu i tng c chiu cao thp hn hay cao hn hai gi tr ? C

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nhin, cch hay nht l chng ta m. Nhng vi my tnh, chng ta c th yu cu my

tnh m v tt hn na l v biu di y.

0.6
0.2

0.4

(1:n)/n

15
10

0.0

Frequency

20

0.8

25

1.0

Frequency distribution of height

145

150

155

160

165

Height

170

175

180

150

155

160

165

170

175

Height

Biu 1: (a) Mt phn phi ca chiu cao, vi trc tung l s i tng. (b) Biu
bn phi l xc sut tch ly (cumulative probability) ca chiu cao.

Trong Biu trn (pha tri), trc tung l s i tng v trc honh l chiu
cao. Nh bn c c th thy, c 4 i tng vi chiu cao t 145 n 150 cm, v t 151
n 155 cm. Tng t, ch c 4 i tng c chiu cao t 175 n 180 cm. ng nh
cm nhn ban u, nh ca biu l s i tng c chiu cao t 160 n 170 cm.
Biu bn phi th hin xc sut tch ly chiu cao. Nhn qua biu ny,
chng ta c th ni rng khong 30% i tng c chiu cao thp hn 160 cm, v khong
80% i tng c chiu cao thp hn hay bng 170 cm. Ni cch khc, s i tng c
chiu cao t 160 n 170 cm chim khong 50% tng s c mu.
Do , ni n phn phi l cp n tn s kh d (hay xc sut) ca cc gi
tr chiu cao.
V hnh dng, chng ta d dng thy rng s phn phi chiu cao 100 i tng
ny ging nh mt hnh chung. Cc phn phi c hnh dng ny c gi l Normal
distribution (ch N ca normal vit hoa), hay phn phi bnh thng. Nhng v tnh
cch chun ha ca phn phi ny, nn ti tm dch l phn phi chun. cho c v
khoa hc v tr thc mt cht (v lm cho nhiu ngi phi bc tc gi u), gii ton
hc thnh thong thm ch lut thnh lut phn phi!
Phn phi bnh thng cn c gi l Gaussian distribution, bi v ngi pht
hin ra lut phn phi ny l nh ton hc danh ting Carl F. Gauss (ngi c). Tht ra,

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ngi cp n lut phn phi ny l nh ton hc ngi Php De Moivre, nhng ng

khng pht trin thm. Trong cun Theorie Analytique des Probabilites, Gauss pht trin
cc c im ca lut phn phi chun v ch ra rng lut phn phi ny ph hp vi cc
hin tng t nhin. Tht vy, hu ht cc hin tng sinh hc t nhin (nh chiu cao,
trng lng c th, huyt p, mt xng, v.v) u c th m t bng lut phn phi
bnh thng mt cch chnh xc. Chnh v th m lut phn phi chun c ng dng
cc k rng ri trong khoa hc thc nghim. C th ni khng ngoa rng phn phi
chun l nn tng, l tr ct ca tt c cc phn tch thng k. Khng c lut phn phi
ny cng c ngha l khng c khoa hc thng k hin i.
hiu r hn tm quan trng ca lut phn phi chun, chng ta cn ghi nh
rng trong nghin cu khoa hc thc nghim, chng ta khng bit cc thng s ca mt
qun th, m ch s vo cc s liu t mt hay nhiu mu suy lun cho mt qun th.
C th hn, y chng ta khng bit chiu cao trung bnh ca ton th ngi Vit l
bao nhiu, chng ta ch bit chiu cao ca 100 i tng va thu thp c, v chng ta
mun s dng cc s liu ny suy lun cho ton th ngi Vit.
Do , trong bt c phn tch thng k no, chng ta lc no nn nh v phn bit
gia khi nim qun th (population) v mu (sample). Cc ch s thng k c c
tnh t mu gi l c s (estimates), v cc ch s thng k ca qun th chng ta gi l
thng s (parameters). Thng thng cc c s c th hin bng k hiu La M (nh
m, s, t), cn cc thng s c k hiu bng ch Hi Lp tng ng (nh , , ).

I. Phn phi chun

Quay tr li vi vn ca chng ta, mt trong nhng cu hi m c l chng ta
mun bit l: nu mt ngi n ng c chn ngu nhin, xc sut m ngi n ng
ny c chiu cao bng 160 cm l bao nhiu. Hi cch khc (v theo ngn ng khng ton
hc), c bao nhiu n ng ngi Vit Nam c chiu cao chnh xc l 160 cm? Cu tr
li c th da vo s liu thu thp c. Chng ta thy ch c mt ngi c chiu cao
159.9 cm (hay 160 cm), do xc sut l 1% (v c mu chng ta c l 100 ngi).
Nhng v chng ta chn mu ngu nhin, cho nn con s ny cha chc chnh
xc. Nu chng ta ngu nhin chn 100 ngi khc, c th c hai ngi c chiu cao 160
cm, v do xc sut l 2%.
Tht ra, chng ta cng c th t mt cu hi chung nh sau: nu mt n ng
c chn ngu nhin, xc sut m v n ng ny c chiu cao x cm l bao nhiu? Hay,
ni cch khc, c bao nhiu phn trm n ng Vit Nam vi chiu cao x cm, trong x
c th l bt c gi tr chiu cao no. Trong tnh hung bt nh ca chn mu nh th,
lut phn phi chun cung cp cho chng ta mt m hnh ton hc tr li cu hi ny.

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Gi X l bin s chiu cao, l chiu cao trung bnh ca mt qun th, v l

lch chun, cu hi trn c th pht biu bng cng thc ton hc nh sau:

P X = x | , 2 = ?

(Ch , P l vit tt ca ch probability, tc xc sut; k hiu | c ngha l given hay

vi iu kin). Do , k hiu trn c th c nh sau: xc sut m X = x vi iu kin
chng ta bit c v l bao nhiu). Cu tr li m Gauss c sn cho chng ta l:

P X = x | ,

( x )2
1
=
exp

2 2
2

[1]

Ch rng cng thc trn i khi cng xut hin trong cc sch gio khoa vi
mt hnh thc khc: thay v vit P ( X = x | , 2 ) , c tc gi vit kh hiu hn l f(x)!
Tt nhin, trong cng thc trn = 3.1416
Nh c th thy qua cng thc [1] trn y, lut phn phi chun c hon ton
xc nh bi 2 thng s: trung bnh v lch chun . Ni cch khc, nu chng ta
bit c 2 thng s ny, chng ta c th c tnh xc sut cho bt c chiu cao no. (Do
chng ta cn phi chn mu (sample) nghin cu nh th no cho cc c s ca
mu nghin cu l rt st vi cc thng s tng ng ca qun th. Phn ny c
cp chi tit trong bi chn mu nghin cu). Trong trng hp ca chng ta, c s
cho v chnh l s trung bnh v lch chun ca mu. Cc c s ny l (cc bn
c th kim tra):
Trung bnh: m = 163.3 cm
lch chun: s = 6.6 cm
Thay th cc c s ny cho cho v , chng ta c th tr li cu hi c bao nhiu n
ng ngi Vit Nam c chiu cao chnh xc l 160 cm:
(160 163.3)2
1
P ( X = 160 ) =
exp
= 0.0533
2
6.6 2 3.1416
2 ( 6.6 )

Theo p s ny, chng ta c th on rng c khong 5.3% n ng Vit Nam c chiu

cao chnh xc l 160 cm. Tuy cch tnh thot u nhn qua c v khc phc tp, nhng
vi phn mm R, ch mt lnh n gin dnorm(160, mean=163.3, sd=6.6) l chng ta
c ngay p s chnh xc!

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Tng t, chng ta c th c tnh xc sut cho bt c chiu cao no qua cng

thc [1]. Bng sau y trnh by mt s xc sut cho chiu cao t thp n cao.
Bng 1. Xc sut chiu cao ca n ng Vit Nam

Chiu cao
(cm)

140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160

Xc sut
(tnh bng
%)
0.0118
0.0200
0.0331
0.0533
0.0840
0.1290
0.1947
0.2863
0.4116
0.5781
0.7935
1.0645
1.3958
1.7886
2.2398
2.7412
3.2788
3.8327
4.3786
4.8887
5.3343

Chiu cao
(cm)

161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181

Xc sut
(tnh bng
%)
5.6885
5.9285
6.0383
6.0107
5.8474
5.5594
5.1656
4.6908
4.1630
3.6107
3.0606
2.5354
2.0527
1.6242
1.2559
0.9491
0.7010
0.5060
0.3570
0.2461
0.1658

Nu bn c chu kh cng tt c cc xc sut ny li (thc ra khng cn) th tng

s s l gn bng 100%. Ni tm li, xc sut gn 100% l chiu cao ca n ng Vit
Nam dao ng t 140 n 181 cm.
Gi d nh nu mt n ng c chiu cao 200 cm, cu hi t ra l chiu cao ny
c bt bnh thng hay khng. Theo s phn phi chiu cao nh va m t (tc trung
bnh 163.3 cm v lch chun 6.6 cm), s n ng Vit Nam c chiu cao 200 cm ch
0.00000116 m thi.

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Cc xc sut trn y cng c th th hin bng mt biu m thut ng ting

Anh gi l probability density distribution (pdf) m ti tm dch l phn phi ca mt
xc sut. Biu ny nh sau:

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Probability

Probability distribution of height in Vietnamese men

140

150

160

170

180

190

Height

Biu 2. Mt xc sut chiu cao n ng Vit Nam

vi trung bnh 163.3 cm v lch chun 6.6 cm.

Biu trn chnh l lut phn phi chun (theo cng thc [1]). Tt nhin, tng
din tch di ng biu din phi bng 1 (hay 100%). iu ny c ngha l nu chng
ta mun c tnh xc sut cho bt c khong chiu cao no. V d nu chng ta mun
bit c bao nhiu n ng Vit Nam c chiu thp hn 150 cm, chng ta ch cn tnh din
tch m trc honh t 150 cm hay thp hn di ng biu din. Pht biu theo ngn
ng ton hc cu hi ny l: P(X < 150) = ? Hay ni chnh xc hn na:

P ( X < 150 | = 163.3, = 6.6 ) = ?

Cch tnh n gin nht l chng ta cng cc xc sut chiu t 140 n 149 (Bng
1 (Bng 1): 0.0118 + 0.0200 + 0.0331 + . + 0.5781 = 1.8%.
Tuy nhin, c mt cch tnh nhanh hn v tinh vi hn l s dng tch phn.
Bn c no cn nh tch phn th cu tr li cho cu hi ny qu n gin: ch cn tnh
tch phn chiu cao t 0 (thp nht) n 159 cm:
P ( X < 150 ) =

149

f ( x )dx

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 ( x 163.3)2
exp
trong , f ( x ) =
. Kt qu tt nhin l 0.018. Bn c
2
6.6 2
2 ( 6.6 )

khng cn phi lm cc tnh ton tch phn phc tp, v phm mm R c mt lnh n
gin tnh tch phn trn (ti trnh by lnh ny trong phn ch thch pha cui bi).

Biu di y minh ha cho xc sut ny bng cch t m din tch di

ng biu din bn c c th hiu r hn:

0.03
P(X < 150) = 1.8%

0.00

0.01

0.02

Probability

0.04

0.05

0.06

Probability distribution of height in Vietnamese men

140

150

160

170

180

190

Height

Biu 3. Din tch di ng biu din (mu xanh nht) cho

chiu cao <150 cm l xc sut P ( X < 150 | = 163.3, = 6.6 ) =

0.018
Tng t, chng ta c th c tnh xc sut cho bt c khong chiu cao no gia
a v b theo cng thc tch phn trn y. Chng hn nh xc sut n ng Vit Nam c
chiu cao t 160 n 170 cm l:
P (160 X 170 ) =

170

160

f ( x )dx

Hay mt cch chung hn:

b

P ( a < X < b ) = f ( x )dx

a

[2]

II. Phn phi chun ha standardized normal distribution

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Trong phn trn, chng ta quan tm n vic phn tch chiu cao bng cch ng
dng lut phn phi chun. Tuy nhin, nh cp trong phn u, lut phn phi chun
c th ng dng cho rt nhiu hin tng t nhin. Nhng cc bin khc nhau v n v
o lng, nh chiu cao o bng cm, nhng huyt p o bng mmHg, nn chng ta kh
m so snh hai bin s ny bi v chng c n v o lng khc nhau, v c th lch
chun cng khc nhau. Chng hn nh nu mt i tng c chiu cao l 175 cm v
huyt p l 120 mmHg, lm sao chng ta bit cc thng s c nhn ny cao hay thp. Do
, chng ta cn phi c mt cch chun ha lut phn phi sao cho chng ta c th so
snh cc bin s ny m khng cn bit n n v o lng.
Mt trong nhng cch chun ha l phn phi chun ha, m c l bn c
tng thy u trong sch gio khoa ngi ta gi l standardized normal distrubution.
Nh thy trong cng thc [1], hai thng s trung bnh v lch chun hon ton xc
nh lut phn phi chun, cho nn, mt cch chun ha l hon chuyn chiu cao (hay
mt bin s) sao cho chng c lp vi n v o lng. Cch hon chuyn ny c tn l
z-transformation hay hon chuyn z. Kt qu ca hon chuyn l mt ch s z (thut ng
ting Anh l z-score).
Trong v d v chiu cao, z l khc bit gia chiu cao mt c nhn (k hiu l
x) v chiu cao trung bnh ca qun th chia cho lch chun. Ni cch khc:
z=

[3]

Bi v x, v trong cng thc trn y u c cng n v (cm), v cm chia cho

cm th khng bin mi hon ton c lp vi n v o lng. Tht ra, n v ca z by
gi khng cn l cm na, m l lch chun. Xem k cng thc [3] trn chng ta c th
rt ra vi nhn xt nh sau:

Nu chiu cao ca mt c nhn thp hn chiu cao trung bnh ca dn s (tc l x

< ) ch s z s m. Chng hn nh nu ng A c chiu cao 150 cm, th ch s z
150 163.3
ca ng l z =
= -2.01, tc l thp hn chiu cao ca dn s khong 2
6.6
lch chun;

Nu x = , ch s z s l 0;

V nu x > , ch s z s l s dng. Chng hn nh nu chiu cao ca mt i

tng l 175 cm, th z = 1.77. Ni cch khc, chiu cao ca i tng ny cao
hn trung bnh khong 1.8 lch chun.

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Nh vy, thay v m t s phn phi ca chiu cao bng n v cm vi hm s

[1], chng ta m t bng n v lch chun hay ch s z. Ch s z by gi c s trung
bnh l = 0 v lch chun l = 1. Nu thay [3] vo [1], chng ta c mt hm s
mi v n gin hn nh sau:
f ( z) =

z2
1
exp
2
2

[4]

V hm s tch ly [2] s tr thnh:

2

P ( a < z < b ) = f ( z )dz =

e 0.5 z
dz
2

[5]

Biu 4 di y minh ha cho phn phi chiu cao tnh bng cm v bng ch s z:

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Probability

Probability distribution of height in Vietnamese men

140

150

160

170

180

190

Height

Biu 4a. Mt xc sut chiu cao n ng Vit Nam, m t bng

cm.

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10

0.2

P(-1.645 < z < 1.645) = 0.9

0.1

Probability

0.3

0.4

Probability distribution of z height in Vietnamese men

P(-1.96 < z < 1.96) = 0.95

0.0

P(-2.576 < z < 2.576) = 0.99

-4

-2

Z score

Biu 4b. Mt xc sut ca phn phi chun f(z), vi trung bnh 0 v

lch chun 1.

C nhin, din tch di ng biu din ca hm s f(z) trong Biu 4b phi l

4

khong 1. Ni cch khc, P ( 4 < z < 4 ) = f ( z )dz ; 1 . Ngoi ra, phn phi chun
4

nh m t qua Biu 4b cn hm cha mt s thng tin c ch v th v:

Xc sut m z 1.96 l 0.025 (tc 2.5%). Ni cch khc, din tch di ng

biu din tnh t z = -1.96 hay thp hn l 0.025.

Bi v phn phi chun cn i (symmetric), chng ta cng c th ni (hay suy

lun) rng xc sut m z 1.96 cng bng 0.025.

Nh vy, xc sut m z nm trong khong -1.96 v 1.96 l 10.0250.025 = 0.95

(hay 95%). Ni cch khc, khong tin cy 95% ca z l -1.96 n 1.96.

Tng t, chng ta cng c th pht biu (v bn c c th t mnh kim chng)

rng xc sut m z nm trong khong -1.645 n 1.645 l 90%. Xc sut m z
nm trong khong -2.576 n 2.576 l 99%. Xc sut m z nm trong khong 3.09 n 3.09 l 99.9%.

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n y, chng ta thy hng s 1.96, 1.64 hay 3.0 xut pht t u! Cc hng
s ny chng c g b mt c: chng l ch s z ca phn phi chun. Bng sau y s
cung cp mt s xc sut cho cc ch s z thng dng trong thng k hc v ng dng
trong y khoa:
Bng 2. Xc sut cc gi tr z
z
P(Zz)

-3.090
0.001

-2.326
0.01

-1.96
0.025

-1.645
0.05

-1.282
0.10

0
0.50

1.282
0.90

1.96
0.975

2.326
0.99

3.090
0.999

III. Khong tin cy 95%

By gi chng ta s im qua vi ng dng lut phn phi chun trong y khoa.
V c qu nhiu ng dng, nn ti ch tp trung vo nhng vn lin quan n nhng
bi ging ca ti, v mt vn m chng ta hay thy l c tnh khong tin cy 95%
(thut ng ting Anh l 95% confidence interval hay c khi cn vit l 95% confidence
limit, thm ch 95% credible interval).
Trong nhiu nghin cu y hc mang tnh m t, chng ta thng mun pht trin
mt cc tham chiu (reference range hay c khi gi khng chnh xc l normal range).
Chng hn nh pht trin cc gi tr tham chiu cho mt bin s sinh ha nh calcium
trong mu, chng ta c th ngu nhin chn mt s i tng v o nng calcium
trong mu, v sau tnh khong tin cy 95%. Khong tin cy 95% ny chnh l cc gi
tr tham chiu. Nu nng calcium trong mu ca mt c nhn nm ngoi khong tin
cy 95% th chng ta c th (xin nhn mnh: c th) pht biu rng nng ca c
nhn ny bt bnh thng.
c tnh khong tin cy 95% (KTC95%), chng ta ch mi lin h gia x v
x
, do :
z trong cng thc [3]; v z =

x = + z

Nh cp trong phn trn, 95% gi tr ca z nm trong khong -1.96 n +1.96,

cho nn chng ta cng c th ni rng 95% gi tr ca x nm trong khong 1.96 v
+ 1.96 . Hay ni ngn gn hn, 95% cc gi tr x nm trong khong:
x = 1.96

[6]

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Quay li vi v d v chiu cao, chng ta bit rng s trung bnh l 163.3 cm v

lch chun l 6.6 cm. Do , chng ta c th suy lun rng 95% n ng Vit Nam c
chiu cao trong khong 163.3 1.966.6 = 150.4 cm n 176.2 cm.
Tt nhin, chng ta cng c th c tnh xc sut 99% chiu cao n ng Vit
Nam nm trong khong 163.3 36.6 = 143.5 cm n 183.1 cm. Do , nu mt n
ng c chiu cao thp hn 143.5 cm, chng ta c th ni l thp, vi xc sut di
0.5%!
Ty theo vn c th, nhng phn ln cc gi tr tham chiu trong y khoa u
ly khong tin cy 95% lm chun. Khi xc sut mt ch s thng k nm ngoi khong
tin cy 95% c xem l c ngha thng k (statistical significant).

IV. Kt lun
Qua bi ny, hi vng ti gii thch phn phi chun l g, v hng s 1.96 trong
cch tnh khong tin cy 95% xut pht t u. Phn phi chun ng mt vai tr thit
yu trong khoa hc thng k. Hu ht tt c cc suy lun thng k u da vo lut phn
phi chun pht trin cc kim nh thng k (statistical tests). Ngay c cc lut phn
phi nh phn hay phn phi Poisson (m ti s bn n trong mt bi khc) cng c th
m hnh bng lut phn phi chun.
Nh l mt qui lut t nhin, rt nhiu bin s lm sng v khoa hc thc nghim
ni chung u tun theo lut phn phi chun. Cng c th c mt s bin s sinh ha
khng tun theo lut phn phi chun, nhng c th hon chuyn chng tun theo lut
phn phi chun. Do , cc phng php phn tch tham s (parametric methods) vn
c th p dng cho cc bin loi ny.

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Cc m R s dng trong bi vit:

# Nhp d liu v chiu cao v gi bin l ht
# ngun: m phng
ht <- c(
176.1, 176.0,
167.7, 155.6,
164.5, 171.5,
172.2, 165.8,
171.1, 162.0,
167.3, 156.1,
168.9, 166.2,
164.0, 171.7,
157.9, 166.8,
157.0, 160.8,

160.6,
165.1,
151.9,
172.4,
158.6,
162.5,
155.3,
162.7,
157.2,
165.2,

158.4,
170.0,
166.0,
162.0,
164.4,
158.4,
157.9,
155.8,
158.8,
161.8,

165.3,
167.4,
166.9,
149.6,
176.6,
156.8,
167.4,
161.4,
162.7,
163.8,

158.0,
166.4,
162.0,
159.9,
159.5,
167.8,
171.8,
163.4,
157.1,
164.2,

155.3,
162.3,
152.5,
157.0,
149.9,
168.7,
170.2,
148.3,
165.9,
174.7,

164.2,
167.1,
147.6,
154.6,
164.0,
164.6,
178.7,
160.9,
162.7,
158.2,

157.2,
154.0,
163.6,
162.3,
162.2,
170.6,
171.7,
156.1,
176.7,
162.3,

159.0,
159.3,
163.5,
171.2,
162.0,
165.2,
171.5,
165.6,
172.1,
168.9)

# Sp xp s liu chiu cao t thp n cao

sort(ht)
# V biu mt 1a
hist(ht, breaks=10,
xlab="Height", main="Frequency distribution of height")
# V biu mt 1b

n <- length(ht)
plot(sort(ht), (1:n)/n,
type="s", ylim=c(0,1), xlab="Height")
plot(density(ht), main="Plot of density distribution of height",
xlab="Height")
# Tm s trung bnh v lch chun ca chiu cao
mean(ht)
sd(ht)
# c tnh xc sut chiu cao = 160 cm vi trung bnh=163.3 v sd=6.6
dnorm(160, mean=163.3, sd=6.6)
# c tnh xc sut cho bng 1
height <- seq(140, 181, 1)
dnorm(height, mean=163.3, sd=6.6)*100
# V biu 2

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height <- seq(140, 190, 1)

plot(height, dnorm(height, 163.3, 6.6),
type="l",
ylab=Probability,
xlab=Height,
main="Probability distribution of height in Vietnamese men")
# c tnh xc sut chiu cao < 150 cm,

P ( X < 150 ) =

149

f ( x )dx

pnorm(149, mean=163.3, sd=6.6)

# V biu 3
height <- seq(140, 190, 1)
dht <- dnorm(height, 163.3, 6.6)
ht <- data.frame(z=height, ht=dht)
zc <- 150
plot(ht,
type="n",
ylab="Probability",
xlab="Height",
main="Probability distribution of height in Vietnamese men")
t <- subset(ht, z<= zc)
polygon(c(rev(t$z), t$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t)), t$ht), col="lightblue", border=NA)
lines(ht, lwd=2)
arrows(148,0.01,148,0.002, angle=30, length=0.1)
text(145,0.012, "P(X < 150) = 1.8%", cex=0.8)
# Hon chuyn sang z score v v biu 4b
zheight <- seq(-4, 4, 0.01)
dzht <- dnorm(zheight, 0, 1)
zht <- data.frame(z=zheight, ht=dzht)
plot(zht,
type="n",
ylab="Probability",
xlab="Z score",
main="Probability distribution of z height in Vietnamese men")
z1
z2
z3
z4
z5
z6

<<<<<<-

1.65
-1.65
1.96
-1.96
2.58
-2.58

t1 <- subset(zht, z>= z1)

polygon(c(rev(t1$z), t1$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t1)), t1$ht), col="lightblue")

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t2 <- subset(zht, z<= z2)

polygon(c(rev(t2$z), t2$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t2)), t2$ht), col="lightblue")
t3 <- subset(zht, z>= z3)
polygon(c(rev(t3$z), t3$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t3)), t3$ht), col="lightpink")
t4 <- subset(zht, z<= z4)
polygon(c(rev(t4$z), t4$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t4)), t4$ht), col="lightpink")
t5 <- subset(zht, z>= z5)
polygon(c(rev(t5$z), t5$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t5)), t5$ht), col="lavender")
t6 <- subset(zht, z<= z6)
polygon(c(rev(t6$z), t6$z),
c(rep(0, nrow(t6)), t6$ht), col="lavender")
lines(zht, lwd=2)
arrows(-1.65,0.1,1.65,0.1, angle=30, length=0.1, code=3, lty=2)
text(0,0.11, "P(-1.645 < z < 1.645) = 0.9", cex=0.8)
arrows(-1.96,0.05,1.96,0.05, angle=30, length=0.1, code=3, lty=2)
text(0,0.06, "P(-1.96 < z < 1.96) = 0.95", cex=0.8)
arrows(-2.58,0.01,2.58,0.01, angle=30, length=0.1, code=3, lty=2)
text(0,0.02, "P(-2.576 < z < 2.576) = 0.99", cex=0.8)
# Cho bi tp : nhp s liu huyt p ca 100 i tng
# ngun: nghin cu bnh i tho ng TPHCM 2007.
bp <- c(
90, 130,
110, 170,
110, 120,
130, 150,
150, 110,
100, 130,
130, 110,
120, 100,
120, 120,
160, 110,

120,
110,
120,
150,
120,
130,
130,
100,
150,
110,

130,
110,
120,
110,
120,
130,
120,
110,
120,
120,

100,
120,
110,
140,
130,
140,
150,
140,
110,
120,

150,
110,
150,
140,
110,
100,
100,
125,
120,
150,

100,
110,
120,
120,
110,
110,
120,
100,
150,
120,

120,
120,
120,
110,
120,
110,
100,
140,
100,
130,

100,
110,
120,
120,
120,
110,
120,
110,
110,
160,

110,
85,
110,
110,
140,
120,
140,
120,
120,
90)

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