CBRE Vit Nam

M KHCH THU TP HCM

Qu 3 2012
Bitexco Financial Tower, TP HCM
C

25 thng 9 nm 2012
Trnh by bi : ng Greg Ohan

Tng Quan
Tng quan th trng vn phng
C hi cho khch thu
Cung v Cu
Cc chin
lc thu Ln k
hoch cho hp ng

ht hn
Nng cp vn phng cc bc cn quan tm
Trng i iu g nm 2013 v v sau
CBRE | Page 2

Purchases of Mortgage Debt to

boost employment and growth

CBRE | Page 3

Nhng Tiu im Gn y

Thng ip Gi n Bn Hm Nay
Th trng c cc du hiu
phc hi sau khi gim lin tc
cc Qu
Nh
Nhng ta
t nh
h Hng
H
A MI tip
ti
tc c a chung mnh m
Gi Thu ca ta nh Hng A n
nh v nhng khch thu c
chn lc vn c hng nhng
u i hp
dn
(khng ging
nh
Qu 1)
Phn ln din tch thu thuc v
cc ngnh c th.
Cc ta nh hng A mi s hon
thin vo u - gia nm 2013
Cc du hiu tin gn y th
trng tim
nng
CBRE | Page 4

Trc thng cu h trn bin - s mnh phc hi

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng

Nhu cu Vn Phng Hng A Qu 2 gim 50% so vi Qu 1
Qua Qu 2 / Qu 3 chng ta thy c gi thu n nh v c
th thy s n nh ny tip tc n u nm 2013
T l trng gim v din tch cho thu c cng gim Qu 3
Gi thu n nh khng phi do Ngun cung & Ngun cu (a
s Ngun Cung Vn Phng Hng A mi b tr hon)
S bnh n phn ln l do s cn bng th trng dn u bi
s st gim yu cu thu / nhu cu (do s hn lon ca nn
ki h t v m;
kinh
gim
i FDI,
FDI nn
kinh
ki h t tton
cu
khng
kh
n nh,
h
cc cng ty tm ngng vic m rng)
Ngun cung MI xut hin dn nm 2013
2013, gi thu Vn
Phng Hng A c th gia tng

CBRE | Page 5

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng

Gi Thu khu Vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng, Qu 2 2012
Gi thu gim mnh

Gi thu gim chm

Gi thu tng mnh

Gi thu tng chm

Lu . Th trng khng nht thit phi tin ln dc theo ng cong trong cng mt hng hoc cng tc .
Chu k gi thu ch yu th hin xu hng ca gi thu Vn Phng Hng A

CBRE | Page 6

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng

TP HCM & H Ni, Top 50 thnh ph c gi thu cao nht

Tp HCM xp th 2 & H Ni xp th 3 trong s nhng thnh ph
c gi thu t khu vc ng Nam sau Singapore
| Page 7Vc Vin Ty thuc HK & London, nm trong top 2
CBRE
Khu

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng

TP HCM
Gi cho thu (US$/m2/thng)

Hng A

H NI
Gi cho thu (US$/m2/thng)

Hng B

$80 0
$80.0

Hng
g A

Hng B

$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$.0
2007

2008

2009

2010

T Alvacancy
trng hng A
Grade

2011

2012

T l
hng B
Grade
B trng
vacancy

50%

T l trng (%)

40%

Hng A

Hng B

30%
20%
10%
0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Gi thu Vn Phng Hng A khu trung tm ti TP HCM thp hn H Ni

nhng khng ng k
T l trng ca Vn Phng Hng A TP HCM l 15% so vi 25% ti H Ni
CBRE | Page 8

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng TP HCM

HNG A

HNG B

TNG

CNG

g ta nh
S lng

49

303

Din tch gp (m2)

304.380

813.482

1.3947.613

T l trng
(%)

15,3%

11,8%

12,8%

Thay i theo qu
(im phn trm)

-1,5 pt

-1,5 pt

-1,5 pt

Thay i theo nm
(im phn trm)

-15,4 pt

-7,4 pt

-9,8 pt

Gi cho thu
(US$/m2/thng)

$30,56

$17,31

$20,92

Theo i theo qu (%)

-0,7%

1,5%

0,6%

Thay
y i theo nm (%)

-10,5%
,

-5,7%
,

8,6%
,

CBRE | Page 9

Din Tch Thc Thu Ti Th Trng Vn Phng TP HCM

Hng A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Hng B
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Tng cng
cui Qu 2

2012
13.298
4.810
2012
16.546
10 596
10.596
-

45.250

2011

2010

2.452
9.005
8.150
14.310

5.714
20.406
4.397
4.451

2011

2010

21.289
14 076
14.076
20.704
29.298

28.979
31 274
31.274
32.052
6.097

48.833

88.383

Din tch thc thu Vn Phng Hng A Qu 2 dng nh ch

bng so vi cng k nm 2010/11 v vn u t nc ngoi
gim
gim.
Tng din tch thc thu Vn Phng Hng A & B nm 2011 so
vi nm 2012 tnh n nay n nh.
CBRE | Page 10

Ngun Cung & Ngun Cu Chin Lc Ca Bn

Khch thu Vn Phng Hng A & B bnh qun = 300m2
$15 - $25 /m2 gi thu thc tr ++ = TH TRNG CHUNG
ca vn phng (Ngn sch cho Vn Phng Hng B)
Bng 1: Ch S Gi Thu Vn Phng Ton Cu
Ch S Gi Thu Vn Phng Ton Cu, % thay i theo Qu

Ton cu
Chu M

Chu TBD
C.u, Trung
ng & C.Phi

Gi thu n
nh

Ngun: B phn Nghin Cu CBRE

CBRE | Page 11

C Hi Cho Cc Khch Thu Nhu Cu

Yu cu thu ca CBRE tnh t u nm 2012
Yu cu thu

Cng ty nc ngoi

61%

Cng ty Vit Nam

39%

Nhu cu thu tp trung vo cc ngnh?

Thnh
Th h lp
l mi/
i/ FDI
9Ha du
9L t
9Lut
S pht trin ca cc ngnh phc v th trng trong
nc
9Gio dc
9Hng tiu dng nhanh

CBRE | Page 12

9Dc

9Vn
Vn ti

9Cc cng ty u t ca Nht

9in t

C Hi Cho Cc Khch Thu Ngun Cung

in Cu Vn Phng Hng A: Bitexco Financial Tower
Ngnh
g
Lut

Dc
Ha Du
Hng Tiu Dng Nhanh
in T
Ti Chnh

Cng Ty Nht

CBRE | Page 13

Khch Thu
Allen & Overy
VDB loi
LCT Lawyers
Harvey Law
Hoffmann-La Roche
Kris Energy
Fonterra
Samsung
Viet Capital
E&Y
MasterCard
IDG Investment
Konica
Nippon Steel
Toyota Financial
S i
Services

Tng Ngun Cung Khu Vc TP HCM

Nm
N
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Na u
2012

Tng Ngun Cung- Din Tch Gp (m2)

H
Hng
A
H
Hng
B
Hng A&B
H
99.618
129.140
228.758
99.618
129.140
228.758
99 618
99.618
163 140
163.140
262 758
262.758
99.618
184.940
284.558
99.618
184.940
284.558
99.618
195.740
295.358
99.618
195.740
295.358
99.618
281.766
381.384
99.618
366.508
466.126
165 606
165.606
475 614
475.614
641 220
641.220
304.380
646.669
951.049
304.380
813.482
1.117.862

329 931
329.931

813 482
813.482

1 143 413
1.143.413

5 Ta Nh Vn Phng
g Hng
g A Mi mc
tiu hon thin
nm 2012
Thc t = 1 vo nm 2012 (4 Ta Nh Vn Phng Hng A Mi mc
tiu hon thin nm 2013) s lng ln nht k t nm 2009
iu ny c ngha g i vi khch thu? .
CBRE | Page 14

Ngun cung: Thc T Qu 4 2011 So Vi Hin Ti

President Place Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Nguyn Du / Nam K Khi Ngha)
D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn (thc thu)

Q 4 2011
Qu
CBRE | Page 15

thng 6/2012 thng 8 thng 9

9.100 m2 - 12 tng
774 m2 (LEED Gold)

Qu 2 2012

Hin ti

Ngun cung: Thc T Qu 4 2011 So Vi Hin Ti

Saigon One Tower Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Tn c Thng

D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn

/ Hm Nghi)

u n gia nm 2012 - Hin ti u nm 2013

40.000 m2 a chc nng
1.017 1.175 m2 din tch thc (LEED Gold)

VS

Qu 4 2011
CBRE | Page 16

Qu 2 2012

Hin ti

Ngun cung: Thc T Qu 4 2011 So Vi Hin Ti

Times Square Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Nguyn Hu /
D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn

Q 4 2011
Qu
CBRE | Page 17

ng

Khi)

thng 3/2012 cui Qu 4 bn giao

12.704 m2 8 tng a chc nng
1.588 m2 din tch thc

Q 2 2012
Qu

Hin ti

Ngun cung: Thc T Qu 4 2011 So Vi Hin Ti

Le Meridien Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Tn c Thng)

D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn (thc thu)

Qu 4 2011
CBRE | Page 18

thng 7/2012 , c th thng 10/2012

9.125 m2 (c tnh)
1.520 m2 (c tnh)

Qu 2 2012

Hin ti

Ngun Cung: Thc T Hm Nay +

Lim Tower - Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Tn c Thng,
Thng L Thnh Tn)
D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn

u Gia nm 2013
Tng din tch thc 10,899 m2
764 m2 792 m2 din tch thc (c tnh)

Hin ti
CBRE | Page 19

u Gia 2013

Ngun Cung: Thc T Hm Nay +

HMTC - Qun 1,
1 Hng A (Hai B Trng)
D kin bn giao
Din tch
Din tch sn

Hin ti
CBRE | Page 20

u Gia 2013
Din tch thc thu 20.000 m2 (c tnh)
1 160 m2 din tch thc (c tnh)
1.160

u Gia 2013

Ngun Cung: Thc T Hm Nay +

Vietcombank Tower - (Cng Trng M Linh)

Qu 2 2012

Qu
4 2011

CBRE | Page 21

Hin ti

Ngun Cung Mi: Khu Ph Cn / Vn Phng Hng B Nm 2013

An Phu Plaza, Qun 3

(An Phu Corporation)
9.000 m2 (c tnh)

CBRE | Page 22

The Vista, Qun 2

(Capitaland)
5 000 m2
5.000
2 ((c
tnh)
t h)

Saigon Airport Plaza, Qun Tn Bnh (SSG)

12.000 m2 (c tnh)

Cc Ta Nh Chnh- Ta Nh No ang C Sn Din Tch Trng?

T l lp
y
Q4 /2011
BitexcoFinancial
Bitexco
Financial
Tower
Kumho
p
Metropolitan
SunWahTower
DiamondPlaza
SaigonCentre
SaigonTower
MeLinhPointTower
A&BTower
G
GreenPower
P
Vincom
CENTEC

D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D1
D3

SaigonTradeCenter D1

T l lp
y

Din tch

(Khong m2) Q1/2012

40,00%
98,00%
98,00%
96,00%
100,00%
96,00%
98,00%
100,00%
93,83%
70 20%
70,20%
51,00%
98,00%

22.000
1.100
1.000
961
0
876
250,90
0
1.614
3 947 30
3.947,30
37.091
200

92,00%

3.500

Din tch

T l lp
y

Din tch

(Khong m2) Q3/2012 (Khong m2)

60,00%
98,00%
95,00%
96,80%
98,00%
90,00%
99,45%
97,00%
c98,00%
90 00%
90,00%
67,00%
98,00%

13.000
300
1.000
856
200
1.000
80,53
631
365
1 130
1.130
25.388
200

65,00%
99,00%
98,00%
97,00%
100,00%
90,00%
99,50%
100,00%
100,00%
100 00%
100,00%
69,90%
98,00%

12.000
375
500
935
0
998
80,53
0
0
0
23.412
574

93,00%

5.000

89,00%

7.768

6.032
327
900
2.550
58.959

86,20%
100,00%
98,67%
94,00%
Q32012

2.720,3
0
1.000
1.079
51.442

MaritimeBankTower D1
CentrePoint
PN
Etown
TB
REETower
D4
TOTAL
CBRE | Page 23

54,00%
97,50%
98,80%
20,00%
Q42011

8.786
682
1.000
13.800
98.910

69,40%
98,00%
99,38%
85,00%
Q12012

Chin Lc Thu - m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt?

TI A HA LI TH
Ti sao di di?
Tm kim iu g khi phn tch ta nh
Din tch
T l trng
M rng/
g thu hp
p
Thnh tch ca Ch u T
Tit kim
S hiu bit ca Ch u T v th trng
Ci thin cht lng/ Hp ng sp ht hn ca Ch u T
Hnh nh
Vn c inTh mnh v ti chnh ca Ch u T
Qun lCam kt trc nhng iu khon thun li
V trThi gian hot ng
Lu thngCh u T mi s u i nhiu hn Khch Thu
ra quyt nh nhanh
u xe
Tuyn dng/gi chn

= Li Th Cnh Tranh

CBRE | Page 24

Chin Lc Thu - m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt?

Tng

Nhn

Sc mnh
ca thng
g hiu

khch thu

Giai on trang tr vn
phng

Phng thc thanh ton

Tin thu c min

t cc
Thi hn thu di hn

&

Tin thu tng dn qua

cc
nm
/ c
nh
h

iu khon chm dt hp
p ng
g Min / gim ph u xe
sm c min tin pht
Bng hiu qung co
ngoi
g
tri hp
p dn
Din tch yu cu
Tc thng lng
Mc tiu gi thu hiu qu sau tt
c nhng u i
CBRE | Page 25

m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt Khi No Nn?

Vic cho thu nhanh chng & th
trng thu hp na u 2012 = cc
la chn b hn ch
TUY NHIN, na cui 2012 = din
tch thu n nh, tr hon ngun
cung
g Vn Phng
g Hng
g A nhng
g cc
la chn Vn Phng Hng B s tit
kim c chi ph / nng cp

Gi cho thu (US$ /m2/thng)

Hng A
Hng B

$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1. Na u
2012 gi thu trung bnh t mc di
$30/m2/thng cc Vn Phng Hng A hon thin
khu vc Qun 1
2. Cam kt vi mt ta nh mi, trc khi hon thin = phi
(giao dch
tt nht l t 3
3-9 thng
g sau ))
tr thm tin thu (g
3. Nhng Ch u T c t l lp y gia tng ang ngh n
tng
g tin thu. Tuy
y nhin,, nhng
g ta nh c hn ang
g
vic
gi cho gi thu n nh.
CBRE | Page 26

Chnh Sch u i THC S Hu Dng Tit kim c 16% trn gi thu k kt

Gi thu thc
Din tch
Tin thu (da trn din tch NET )
Ph qun l
VAT
Tng cng
g cng
g hng
g thng
g (Tin
(
thu))
Tng
Tng cng hng thng (Ph qun l)
Tng cng hng thng (VAT)
Tng cng hng thng (Tin thu, PQL, VAT)
Thi hn hp ng
Tng cng
Cc u i
Min tin thu
Tng gi tr tin thu c min

Bin hiu qung co (1m x 1.2m)

Gi th trng
Tng cng gi tr bin hiu trong sut 5 nm
Min tin gi xe
S
lng xe t
Gi th trng
Tng cng tin gi xe t trong sut 5 nm

S lng xe gn my
Gi th trng
Tng cng tin gi xe gn my trong sut 5 nm

1.361
1
361 m2
$30/ m2/thng
$6/ m2/thng
10%
$39,60/ m2/thng
$40.830,00USD
$8.166,00USD
$4.899,60USD
$5.895,60USD
60 thng
$3.233.736,00USD

$39,60

/ m2/thng

9 thng
$367.470,00USD
$4,5/ m2/thng

$35,10

/ m2/thng

1.20 m2
$250/ m2/thng
$18.000USD
$0,22/ m2/thng

$34,88

/ m2/thng

4
$200/ thng
$48.000USD
$0,59 m2/thng

$34.29

/ m2/thng

70
$20/thng
$84.000USD
$1,03/ m2/thng

$33,26

/ m2/thng

ng
g gp
g
cho trang
g tr ni tht
$0/ m2/thng
Tin thu thc sau khi tnh cc u i
CBRE | Page 27

$33,26

/ m2/ thng

Chnh Sch u i B p Cho CAPEX V D

Di tch
Din
t h

365 m2
2

1 361 m2
1.361
2

Gi thu

$40/ m2/thng

$33/ m2/thng

Gi thu nm u

$35/ m2/thng

$30/ m2/thng

Tin thu hng

g thng
g

$14.600/thng
$
g

$44.913/thng
$
g

$350/ m2

$350/ m2

$127.750

$476.350

Giai on min tin thu

2 thng

5 thng

Tng s tin thu c min

Tng s tin tit kim c
t tin thu h thng gi bc
thang

$29.200

$224.565

$18.250

$28.581

$47 450
$47.450

$253 146
$253.146

37,14%

53,14%

Chi ph trang tr ni tht

Tng gi tr trang tr ni tht
c tnh

Tng gi tr u i
Gi tr tin thu c min /
tng gi tr trang tr ni tht
CBRE | Page 28

S Vng Chc Hn Ca Tin ng

K kt hp ng thu bng VND
C nh mc tng hng nm t 5 10%
Tr li tin cc bng Tin T Chnh
Ngn Hng Nh Nc hng ti
mc tiu dao ng 3%
Source: http://www.vietbiz24.com
http://www.vietbiz24.com/Articles/1052/26303/currencies/vietnam
ese-dong-firms-against-us-dollar-after-tet.aspx

Ngy
20/10/2008

T gi
VND 16.600

USD
$25

Hiu lc
$25

VND
VND 415.000

% tng

20/10/2009

VND 17.852

$25

$26,89

VND 446.300

7,54%

22/12/2010
11/11/2011
21/5/2012

VND 21.015
VND 21.005
VND 20.870

$25
$
$25
$25

$31,65
$
$31,63
$31,43

VND 525.375
VND 525.125
VND 521.750

26,60%
26,54%
25,72%

24/9/2012

VND 20.840
20 840

$25

$31 39
$31,39

VND 521.000
521 000

25 54%
25,54%

CBRE | Page 29

For indicative purposes only based on Vietcombank Transfer rate

Tnh Ton K Cho Vn Phng MI Ti u Ha S Dng

S
S dng nh qun l d n
dy dn kinh nghim
S dng mt bng hiu qu
nht
Thit
Thit k mt bng linh hot
tng lai c th pht trin
thm nhn s. V d: chuyn
i nh kho thnh mt s bn
lm vic khi nhn s gia tng

CBRE | Page 30

Tm Lc
Nh
Nhu c
cu th
thu
vn
n phng d
du xung
ng trong Q
Qu
2 v
Q
Qu
3
2012.
S pht trin mnh m t nhng khch thu trong nc c
nhu cu m rng, nng cp vn phng thuc nhng lnh vc
nht nh tip thm ngun nhin liu lp y nhng Ta
Nh Vn Phng Hng A v Hng B chnh
chnh.
Ngun cung thc t 6 thng cui nm 2012 l 11% so vi d
bo. Gia tng
g cnh
tranh & Ngun
g
Cung
g Vn Phng
g Hng
gA
Mi d kin xy ra vo Qu 4 2012 Hin ti, gia n cui
nm 2013.
T
Tnh
h hnh
h h th trng
t gi
i gi
i th
thu

n
nh
h tto cho
h kh
khch
h
thu nhiu thi gian ln k hoch thu.
Tt c du hiu ang cho thy th trng vn phng ang
mc y tim nng t nht l n u nm 2013.
Ln sng ngun cung Vn Phng Hng A sp ti, mt
im
bo ln nht

CBRE | Page 31

www.cbrevietnam.com
hn 300 vn phng trn 50 quc gia

49

Cm n

33

Chng ti thu thp nhng thng tin trn t cc ngun thng tin m chng ti cho l ng tin cy. Tuy nhin, chng ti
khng kim chng tnh chnh xc ca cc thng tin v s khng bo m, oan chc hay i din cho cc thng tin
ny. Cc
C thng tin ny c a ra vi gi
thuyt
l c kh
nng c sai st, b
st, thay i
gi bn, gi thu v cc
iu kin khc trc khi c bn, cho thu hay ti tr vn, hoc b thu hi m khng c thng bo. Chng ti ch a ra
cc d on, quan im, gi nh hay nh gi ca mnh lm v d dn chng v cc thng tin ny c th s khng
th hin c cc hot ng hin thi v tng lai ca ti sn. Qu v cng nh cc chuyn vin t vn v thu v php
l ca
qu
CBRE
| Page
32 v cn t mnh tin hnh iu tra kho st v ti sn v giao dch.