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n
0 0j 0
j=1
Q = q +q (2)
01
,
02
, ,
0n
) v gi l vc
t h s s dng lao ng.
0j
0j
j
q
= (j =1n)
Q
0j
0 ( j) >
Cc h thc cn i dng ma trn
K hiu:
Khi :
Trong : E l ma trn n v cp n.
1 1
2 2
n n
n1 n1
Q q
Q q
Q= q=
... ...
Q q
| | | |
| |
| |
| |
| |
\ . \ .
n n
ij
i j i i ij j i
j=1 j=1
j
q
(1) Q = Q + q Q = Q + q (i=1n)
Q
Q = Q + q EQ = Q + q (E-)Q = q (3)
3. H s chi ph ton b dng hin vt
Gi s ma trn (E ) khng suy bin. Khi tn ti ma
trn nghch o (E )
-1
.
T (3) Q = (E )
-1
q
t = (E )
-1
= ((
ij
))
nn
v gi l ma trn h s chi ph
ton b dng hin vt.
ngha:
ij
cho bit, lm ra mt n v SPCC ca
ngnh j th ngnh i phi sn xut ra mt lng sn phm l
ij
n v.
Tnh cht:
Khi : Q = q (4)
ij ii
0 ; > 1 ( i,j) >
4. Lp k hoch sn xut
Gi s nm t c ma trn (t) v vct (t).
Khi chuyn t nm t sang nm t+1 (trong ngn hn) cc h
s chi ph khng thay i: (t+1) = (t), (t+1) = (t).
SPCC l mc tiu ca nn kinh t, chng l cc bin ngoi
sinh ca m hnh. Khi cn xc nh mc sn xut ca
cc ngnh p ng yu cu v SPCC t ra.
Cc h thc cn i lp k hoch sn xut nm t+1:
ij ij j
0j 0j j
Q(t+1) = (t+1)q(t+1);
q (t+1) = (t+1)Q (t+1) (i,j = 1n);
q (t+1) = (t+1)Q (t+1) (j = 1n).
5. Xc nh gi sn phm ca cc ngnh
sn xut ra 1 n v sn phm th ngnh j phi s dng
sn phm ca cc ngnh khc, k c sn phm ca chnh
ngnh mnh lm nguyn liu u vo sn xut, ng thi
cng phi s dng cc yu t u vo s cp.
K hiu:
P
j
(P
i
) l gi 1 n v sn phm ca ngnh j (i).
W
j
(W
i
) l GTGT tnh trn 1 n v SP ca ngnh j (i).
Trong mi n v sn phm ca ngnh j gm c hai phn:
- Chi ph v sn phm trung gian: P
1
1j
+P
2
2j
++ P
n
nj
- Chi ph cho cc yu t u vo s cp: W
j
Ta c:
n
j i ij j
i=1
P = P + W (j = 1n) (5)
K hiu:
P = (P
1
, P
2
, , P
n
) vc t gi
W = (W
1
, W
2
, , W
n
) Vc t gi tr gia tng
Nu bit W = W(t+1) - W(t). Khi :
P = P(t+1) P(t) = W(t+1)(t+1) - W(t)(t)
Nu (t+1) = (t). Khi : P = W (7)
-1
(4) P = P + W P(E-) = W
P = W(E-) =W (6)
6. V d
Cho bng I/O dng hin vt ca 3 ngnh nm t:
Sn lng Sn phm trung gian SPCC
100 20 10 8 62
50 10 10 16 14
40 10 10 8 12
Lao ng 10 10 4 Nm t
Hy thc hin cc yu cu sau
a. Xc nh ma trn , vc t , ma trn v cho bit:
- ngha ca mt phn t bt k thuc ma trn , vc t
v ma trn . Gii thch s khc nhau ca
ij
v
ij
.
- ngha ca tng cc phn t trn mt dng bt k ca ma
trn v .
- ngha ca mt vc t ct ca ma trn v .
b. Gi s nm t+1 cc h s chi ph v h s lao ng khng
thay i so vi nm t. Hy lp k hoch sn xut ca
nm t+1 vi yu cu v SPCC: q(t+1) = (60, 20, 20).
c. Xc nh gi sn phm ca cc ngnh bit rng vc t gi
tr gia tng ca cc ngnh: W = (0,2; 0,15; 0,1) .
d. Cho mc thay i ca gi tr gia tng: (-0,05; 0,05; 0,1).
Hy xc nh mc thay i gi sn phm cc ngnh.
VI. Bng I/O dng gi tr
1. Xy dng m hnh
2. H s chi ph trc tip dng gi tr
3. H s chi ph ton b dng gi tr
4. Lp k hoch sn xut
5. Xc nh ch s gi ca cc ngnh
6. V d
1. Xy dng m hnh
Xt mt nn kinh t m c n ngnh. Khi sn phm s
dng trong nn kinh t bao gm sn phm sn xut trong
nc v sn phm nhp khu
Nhp khu c phn lm hai loi:
- Nhp khu phi cnh tranh: L nhp khu cc sn phm
khng c sn xut trong nc.
- Nhp khu cnh tranh: L nhp khu cc sn phm
c sn xut trong nc. Phn nhp khu cnh tranh c
danh mc sn phm trng vi sn phm trong nc .
Gi s: c mt h thng gi P = (P
1
, P
2
, , P
n
) xc
nh gi tr sn phm ca cc ngnh.
Vi (i,j = 1n) k hiu
X
i
= P
i
Q
i
(X
j
= P
j
Q
j
) - GO
i
(GO
j
)
x
ij
= P
i
q
ij
l gi tr sn phm ca ngnh i bn cho
ngnh j
x
ii
= P
i
q
ii
l gi tr sn phm t s dng ca ngnh i
x
i
= P
i
q
i
l gi tr SPCC cng ca ngnh i
f
ik
l gi tr sn phm cui cng ca ngnh i c s
dng cho mc ch tiu dng th k .
y
hj
l gi tr yu t u vo s cp th h c s dng
trong ngnh j.
Y
h
l gi tr yu t u vo s cp th h c s dng
trong ton b nn kinh t.
GTSL
X
1
X
2
X
j
X
n
SPCC
Nhu cu cui cng
Nhu cu trung gian C+G I EX IM
X
1
x
11
x
12
x
1j
x
1n
x
1
f
11
f
12
f
13
-f
14
X
2
x
21
x
22
x
2j
x
2n
x
2
f
21
f
22
f
23
-f
24
X
i
x
i1
x
i2
x
ij
x
in
x
i
f
i1
f
i2
f
i3
-f
i4
X
n
x
n1
x
n2
x
nj
x
nn
x
n
f
n1
f
n2
f
n3
-f
n4
W y
11
y
12
y
1j
y
1n
Y
1
Bng I/O cnh tranh
(ch xt NK cnh tranh)
X=GO
D y
21
y
22
y
2j
y
2n
Y
2
T y
31
y
32
y
3j
y
3n
Y
3
y
41
y
42
y
4j
y
4n
Y
4
GTSL
X
1
X
2
X
j
X
n
SPCC
Nhu cu cui cng
Nhu cu trung gian C+G I EX
X
1
x
11
x
12
x
1j
x
1n
x
1
f
11
f
12
f
13
X
2
x
21
x
22
x
2j
x
2n
x
2
f
21
f
22
f
23
X
i
x
i1
x
i2
x
ij
x
in
x
i
f
i1
f
i2
f
i3
X
n
x
n1
x
n2
x
nj
x
nn
x
n
f
n1
f
n2
f
n3
IM y
11
y
12
y
1j
y
1n
Y
1
F
1
F
2
F
3
W y
21
y
22
y
2j
y
2n
Y
2
Bng I/O phi cnh tranh
(ch xt NK phi cnh
tranh)
X=GO+IM
D y
31
y
32
y
3j
y
3n
Y
3
T y
41
y
42
y
4j
y
4n
Y
4
y
51
y
52
y
5j
y
5n
Y
5
Cc h thc cn i
H phng trnh phn phi gi tr sn phm:
H phng trnh phn phi gi tr SPCC cho cc
mc ch tiu dng:
x
i
= f
i1
+ f
i2
+ f
i3
(i = 1n)
(9)
H phng trnh c cu gi tr sn phm:
n
i ij i
j=1
X = x + x (i=1n) (8)
n 5
j ij hj
i=1 h=1
X = x + y (j = 1n) (10)
H phng trnh phn phi gi tr cc yu t u
vo s cp:
H phng trnh c cu gi tr SPCC:
n
k ik
i=1
F = f (k=1,2,3) (12)
n
h hj
j=1
Y = y (h =1,2,3,4,5) (11)
Gi IC
j
l chi ph trung gian ca ngnh j:
GDP tnh theo phng php gi tr gia tng:
n
j ij 1j
i=1
IC = x + y
5
j j hj
h=2
5
j j j hj
h=2
X = IC + y
VA =X - IC = y (14)
n
j 2 3 4 5
j=1
GDP = VA = (Y +Y +Y +Y ) = W + D + T +
ki
ki
k
f
d = ( k,i)
F
Cc h thc cn i dng ma trn
K hiu:
Ta c:
1 1 1
1
2 2 2
2
3
31
5 n n
n1 n1 51
Y X x
F
Y X x
X = x = Y = F = F
... ... ...
F
Y X x
| | | | | |
| |
| | |
|
| | |
|
| | |
|
| | |
\ .
\ . \ . \ .
n n
ij
i j i i ij j i
j=1 j=1
j
x
(7) X = X + x X = a X + x (i=1n)
X
X = AX + x EX = AX + x (E-A)X = x (16)
n n
hj
h j h hj j
j=1 j=1
j
3 3
ik
i k ik k
k=1 k=1
k
y
(10) Y = X Y = b X (h=15) Y=BX (17)
X
f
x = F = d F (i=1n) x=DF (18)
F
3. H s chi ph ton b dng gi tr
Gi s ma trn (E A) khng suy bin. Khi tn ti ma
trn nghch o (E A)
-1
.
Khi (1) vit thnh: X = (E A)
-1
x
t C = (E A)
-1
= ((c
ij
))
nn
v gi l ma trn h s chi ph
ton b dng gi tr.
ngha: c
ij
cho bit, lm ra mt n v gi tr SPCC
ca ngnh j th ngnh i phi sn xut ra mt lng sn
phm c gi tr l c
ij
n v.
Khi : X = Cx = CDF v Y = BX = BCx = BCDF (19)
Tnh cht:
ij ii
c 0; c > 1 ( i,j) >
4. Lp k hoch sn xut
Gi s nm t c ma trn A(t), B(t), D(t).
Khi chuyn t nm t sang nm t+1 cc h s chi ph khng
thay i: A(t+1) = A(t), B(t+1) = B(t), D(t+1) = D(t).
Gi tr SPCC (x) hoc nhu cu cui cng (F) l mc tiu
ca nn kinh t, chng l cc bin ngoi sinh ca m hnh.
Khi cn xc nh gi tr sn xut ca cc ngnh p
ng yu cu t ra.
Cc h thc cn i lp k hoch sn xut nm t+1:
ij ij j
hj hj j
ik ik k
X(t+1) = C(t+1)x(t+1) = C(t+1)D(t+1)F(t+1);
x (t+1) = a (t+1)X (t+1) (i,j = 1n);
y (t+1) = b (t+1)X (t+1) (j = 1n);
f (t+1) = d (t+1)F (t+1)(i = 1n; k = 1,2,3).
5. Xc nh ch s gi sn phm cc ngnh
Gi s c bng I/O dng gi tr vi: A(t+1) = A(t),
B(t+1) = B(t).
P
j
(t) v P
j
(t+1) l gi mt n v sn phm ca
ngnh j nm t v t+1.
K hiu K
j
l ch s gi ca ngnh j:
Gi P
h
(t) v P
h
(t+1) l gi mt n v yu t u
vo s cp th h nm t v t+1.
K hiu W
h
l ch s gi yu t u vo s cp th
h:
j
j
j
P (t+1)
K =
P (t)
h
h
h
P (t+1)
W =
P (t)
K hiu:
K = (K
1
, K
2
, , K
n
) l vc t ch s gi ca n ngnh
W = (W
1
, W
2
,, W
5
) l vc t ch s gi cc yu t u
vo s cp.
S bin ng gi sn phm ca ngnh j l do s bin ng
gi ca cc sn phm m ngnh j s dng trong qu trnh
sn xut v s bin ng ca gi cc yu u vo s cp
m ngnh j s dng.
Phng trnh c cu h s gi tr sn phm ca ngnh j:
n 5 n 5
ij hj j ij i hj h
i=1 h=1 i=1 h=1
-1
1= a + b K = a K + b W (j=1n)
K=AK+WB EK-AK=WB K(E-A)=WB
K=WB(E-A) =WBC (20)
K=WBC (?) (21)
Phn tch vai tr ca cc ngnh
o mc quan trng tng i ca mt ngnh vi
t cch l ngnh s dng sn phm ca cc ngnh khc
lm u vo SX. Ngi ta s dng h s lan to
(Backward linkage effect).
H s lan ta ca ngnh j:
= =
=
=
n
i
n
j
ij
n
i
ij
j
a
n
a
BL
1 1
1
1
Phn tch vai tr ca cc ngnh
o mc quan trng tng i ca mt ngnh vi
t cch l ngnh cung cp sn phm cho cc ngnh khc
lm u vo SX. Ngi ta s dng h s nhy (Forward
linkage effect).
H s nhy ca ngnh i:
= =
=
=
n
i
n
j
ij
n
j
ij
i
a
n
a
FL
1 1
1
1
Phn tch vai tr ca cc ngnh
Mt ngnh no m c h s FL v BL > 1
th ngnh c th xem l c vai tr quan
trng i vi cc ngnh khc trong nn kinh t.
Ni mt cch khc c th xem ngnh l
ngnh then cht ca nn kinh t.
6. V d
Cho bng I/O dng gi tr ca 3 ngnh nm t:
GTSL Nhu cu trung gian GTSPCC Nhu cu cui cng
C + G I EX
200 20 20 10 150 75 50 25
200 20 30 20 130 60 40 30
100 30 20 20 30 15 10 5
IM 10 20 0 Y
1
150 100 60
W 20 15 20 Y
2
Nm t
n v: t ng
D 10 15 10 Y
3
T 10 10 10 Y
4
80 70 10 Y
5
Hy thc hin cc yu cu sau
a. Xc nh cc ma trn A, B, C, D v cho bit ngha kinh t ca:
- Mt phn t bt k thuc cc ma trn trn.
- Tng cc phn t trn mt dng, mt ct ca ma trn A, B, C.
b. Vc t x(t+1) = (180, 150, 50). Hy lp k hoch sn xut cho
nm t+1. Gi s nm t+1 cc h s chi ph v c cu tiu dng
khng thay i so vi nm t.
c. Cho vc t ch s gi ca cc yu t u vo s cp
W = (1,02; 1,05; 1; 1,2; 1). Hy xc nh ch s gi ca cc ngnh.
d. Hy xc nh mc thay i ch s gi nu tin cng tng 10%,
cc yu t khc khng i.