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QUN TR TI CHNH QUC T CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V QUN TR TI CHNH QUC T 1. Khi nim mi trng TCQT?

Cc nhn t nh hng n mi trng TCQT? Mi trng TCQT l mi trng ti chnh m trong cc cty a quc gia ang hot ng Cc nhn t nh hng n mi trng TCQT: -Ton cu ha (Globalization) -Xa dn bin gii hi quan gia cc nc (Disintegrating borders) -S pht trin ca Internet v cng ngh thng tin (The development of Internet & IT) -S xut hin ca ngi tiu dng ton cu v sn phm ton cu (The rise of global customers & products) 2. Thi trng TCQT? -Th trng ngoi hi -Th trng tin t QT -Th trng tn dng QT -Th trng tri phiu QT -Th trng c phiu QT 3. Khi nim QTTCQT? Phn bit QTTCQT vi QTTCN -QTTCQT l vic thit lp chin lc v h thng qun tr nm bt thnh cng cc c hi quc t v phn ng ph hp vi cc thch thc trn trng quc t -So snh: Ging nhau: u nhm mc ch ti a ha li ch c ng, th hin tng gi tr c phiu, c tc Khc nhau: QTTCQT i hi s am hiu vn ha, lch s, v cc vn v th ch chnh tr ca cc nc i mt vi ri ro hi oi v ri ro chnh tr cao hn L thuyt v TCDN khi p dng trong mi trng TCQT cng s phi iu chnh ph hp Cc cng c ti chnh phc tp hn, c bit thng s dng cc cng c phi sinh Vn t chc b my qun l (Agency problem) phc tp hn 4. Mc tiu ca QTTCQT -Ti a ha li ch c ng Shareholder return= -m bo s cn bng hi ha gia 3 mc tiu: ti a ha thu nhp sau thu ca c tp on; ti thiu ha gnh nng thu thc t; s cn bng hp l ca li nhun, lu chuyn tin t ca cc chi nhnh cng ty cc nc 5. Cc nhn t nh hng n QTTCQT -Nhn t bn trong: MQH gia HQT v Ban Gim c -Nhn t bn ngoi: Equity market: chuyn gia phn tch th trng Debt market: cc t chc xp hng tn dng Auditors & legal advisors: kim ton, t vn lut Regulators: y ban chng khon, cc c quan nh nc khc 6. Case study: Enron 7. Khi nim cng ty xuyn quc gia

Eiteman: cng ty a quc gia l cng ty c cc cng ty con, chi nhnh, cng ty lin kt nc ngoi UNCTAD1990: TNC l cc doanh nghip c t cch php nhn hoc khng c t cch php nhn, bao gm cc cng ty m v cc cng ty con nc ngoi ca chng. Cty m c nh ngha nh cc cty kim sot ti sn ca nhng thc th kinh t khc nc ngoi, thng c thc hin thng qua vic s hu mt t l vn gp nht nh, thng l >10% mt DN tr thnh TNC khi tin hnh u t trc tip ra nc ngoi 8. S hnh thnh cc TNCs -L thuyt li th tng i: cc cty xut khu cc sp mnh c li th, cc tp on m chi nhnh, cty con nc ngoi chuyn mn ha sx, to thnh mng li sx quc t -L thuyt vng i sp: th trng trong nc bo ha th trng nc ngoi. tit kim thi gian v chi ph vn chuyn, cc cty m chi nhnh sx nc ngoi thay v xut khu -L thuyt li th c quyn: khi DN s hu li th ring c so vi cc i th khc trong ngnh khai thc li th nc ngoi thng qua u t trc tip -L thuyt th trng khng hon ho: s khng hon ho ca th trng (c ro cn /v s di chuyn cc nhn t sx) gi cc nhn t sx khc nhau cc nc cc TNCs c th tm kim cc c hi quc t cc th trng nc ngoi -Cc ng c u t trc tip ra nc ngoi: Tm kim thi trng Tm kim ngun lc u vo Tm kim hiu qu Tm kim ti sn chin lc Tm kin an ninh chnh tr 9. Cc phng thc kinh doanh quc t ca TNCs -XNK -Licensing -Franchising -u t trc tip nc ngoi: M&A, GI

10. Chin lc ca TNCs Phn loi theo mc hi nhp -Thnh lp cc cng ty con t ch

-Hi nhp n gin: outsourcing & other non- equity mode of international production (contract manufacturing, licensing, franchising,..) -Hi nhp phc hp: da trn kh nng ca cng ty trong vic chuyn dch sx v cung ng ti nhng a im sinh li nht Cc hot ng c th s dng chin lc hi nhp phc hp: R&D, Purchasing, SX, Ti chnh k ton, o to Hi nhp phc hp c th hiu l outsourcing 1 hay nhiu hot ng ca chui gi tr cho 1 vi cty con trong ni b tp on 11. C hi v ri ro quc t ca TNCs -C hi: C hi u t: m rng cc c hi u t quc t v khng gii hn c c hi t c t sut sinh li cao hn so vi cty ni a C hi ti chnh: cty ni a c kh nng huy ng vn hn hp, cty xuyn QG c th tip cn cc ngun huy ng vn di do -Ri ro: T gi bin ng Thiu am hiu th trng nc ngoi Ri ro chnh tr 12. Cu trc qun tr ca TNCs Cu trc tp trung: cty m trc tip ra quyt nh cho cc cty con u im: gim agency problem Nhc im: nh qun l cp cao cty m c th ra quyt nh khng ph hp vi tnh hnh cty con Tc ra quyt nh chm Cu trc phi tp trung: nh qun tr ti cc cty con ra quyt nh; c th s hiu qu hn khi cc nh qun l ti cty con c nhiu quyn ra quyt nh hn Ri ro khi nh qun tr khng hot ng v li ch ca cty CHNG 2: QUN TR RI RO T GI HI OI 1. Ti sao phi d on ri ro t gi TNCs d on t gi a ra cc quyt nh: Phng v ri ro (hedging), ti tr vn ngn hn (shorter financing), u t ngn hn (shorter investment), ti tr vn di hn (longterm financing), qun tr ngn qu quc t (international capital budgeting), nh gi kt qu hot ng ( earnings assessment) 2. Cc nhn t quyt nh n t gi 3 nhm nhn t: Cc iu kin ngang gi (Parity conditions) Th trng ti sn/ vn (Asset market) Cn cn thanh ton (Balance of Payments) 3. iu kin ngang gi a) MQH gia gi v t gi (PPP- ngang gi sc mua)

b) MQH gia li sut v t gi: 1. IFE: The International Fisher Effect: t gi thay i bng ng bin nhng ngc chiu vi chnh lch li sut gia 2 nc

2. IRP: Interest rate parity- ngang gi li sut: chnh lch gia t gi k hn v t gi giao ngay bng ng bin nhng tri du vi chnh lch li sut danh ngha

c) Gi, li sut v t gi iu kin cn bng: k cn bng, RPPP, IFE, IRP ng thi xy ra (khi TT hiu qu)

4. Th trng ti sn/ vn Gm cc nhn t th hin tnh thanh khon ca ng tin v s pht trin ca th trng vn: li sut thc, trin vng pht trin kinh t, cung cu ti sn, tnh hnh chnh tr, u c v tnh thanh khon 5. Cn cn thanh ton: cn cn thng mi, u t chng khon, u t trc tip, c ch t gi, d tr ngoi t 6. Cc phng thc tip cn d on t gi: PPP, BoP, Monetary, Asset market approach 7. PPP approach: -T gi bin ng ph hp vi s thay i ca lm pht trong v ngoi nc -Hu ht cc l thuyt v t gi u da trn nn tng PPP -Trn thc t nu ch dng PPP th d on khng chnh xc do c nhiu s khc bit cn bn gia cc quc gia. PPP cho d on chnh xc hn trong di hn, km chnh xc trong ngn hn 8. BoP approach: -T gi ph thuc vo cc dng lu chuyn ngoi t vo/ra ti khon vng lai v ti khon ti chnh ca CCTT

-Cch tip cn ny c u im l d liu BoP c ghi chp v cng b kh rng ri -Nhc im: ch ch trng dng lu chuyn m khng th hin tm quan trng ca tng lng tin hay ti sn ti chnh 9. Monetary approach -T gi ph thuc vo cung cu tin quc gia, cng nh mc cung tin v t l tng cung tin t d on -Cch tip cn ny khng c cc nh nghin cu nh gi cao v n khng th hin MQH kinh t gia cc bin. Ngoi ra, cu tin t th lun ko n nh theo thi gian 10. Asset market approach -T gi ph thuc vo cung cu cc loi ti sn ti chnh -S thay i trong chnh sch ti chnh tin t quyt nh n s k vng v nhn nh v ri ro ca cc ti sn ti chnh bin ng t gi -Determinants of financial assets: Relative real interest rate Prospect for economic growth Capital market liquidity A countrys economic and social infrastructure Political safety Credibility of corporate governance Contagion Speculation 11. Cc phng php d on t gi: Phn tch k thut, ni ti, da trn thng tin th trng, tng h p 12. Phn tch k thut: -Da trn quan im: s bin ng t gi trong qu kh s phn nh s bin ng t gi trong tng lai -PP ny gi nh rng t gi bin ng theo quy lut, xu hng -u im: Tn dng c cc d liu sn c v m hnh kinh t lng Nh u c thng da vo cc m hnh ny d on bin ng theo ngy ca t gi -Nhc im: Khng phn nh MQH ni ti gia cc bin s kinh t Thng ch ph hp cho d on ngn hn M hnh d on ph hp cho giai on ny c th khng ph hp vi 1 giai on khc 13. Phn tch ni ti: -D on da trn phn tch cc MQH ni ti gia cc bin s kinh t (tng trng, lm pht, li sut,) v t gi -C th s dng phn tch nh lng -Cc MQH l thuyt nh PPP, IFE, IRP v cc nhn t nh hng n gi cc ti sn ti chnh c th c s dng d on t gi -Nhc im: Kh x/ c thi im 1 nhn t c tc ng trc tip n t gi; kh thu thp d liu d on cc nhn t 14. Phn tch da trn thng tin th trng: -D on da trn cc ch s v thng tin th trng -Thng dng t gi hin ti hoc t gi forward d on t gi tng lai, v cc nh u c s a t gi v mc phn nh k vng ca th trng v t gi

15. Phng php tng hp -S dng nhiu phng php d on t gi -Gi tr d on l bnh qun gia quyn ca cc kt qu d on khc nhau theo nhiu phng php khc nhau 16. D on t gi trn thc t -Nhu cu d on t gi ca cc TNCs Nhiu cty cung cp dch v t vn d on t gi, cng nh t vn v hedging - nhn nh cht lng dch v t vn, cn so snh chnh xc ca nhng d on ca cty ny vi nhng d on min ph hoc c cng b rng ri cho cng chng -Mt s cty t vn d on t gi: Business International, Conti Currency, Predex, Wharton Econometric Forcasting Associates& cc ngn hng u t ln nh Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, -Thi gian d on cng di th d on cng kh chnh xc -S la chn phng php d on cn ph thuc vo c ch qun l t gi ca nh nc -D on t gi trn thc t thng l s kt hp gia nhiu phng thc -T gi bin ng c chia lm 3 thi k: bin ng theo ngy c th s dng phn tch k thut; d on ngn hn s dng phn tch tng hp; d on di hn: thng biu hin xu hng tng hay gim nn s dng phn tch ni ti -L thuyt nghin cu nh lng cho thy s bin ng ca t gi trong di hn tng i tun theo cc nguyn tc l thuyt -Tuy nhin trong ngn hn, nhiu nhn t (eg: random events, institutional frictions& technical factors) lm t gi bin ng lch khi xu hng di hn 17. nh gi kt qu d on t gi -TNCs cn nh gi xem d on t gi ca mnh c chnh xc khng; cng nh so snh tnh hiu qu ca cc phng thc d on khc nhau -C th cn tnh ton, nh gi hay thc hin: sai s d on, kim nh thng k, v th cc kt qu -Forecast error: Absolute forecast error=
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Tnh forecast error theo thi gian, theo tng ngoi t Nu forecast error c khuynh hng lun m hoc lun dng forecast bias kim nh -Kim nh thng k M hnh hi quy sau c th dng kim nh xem c forecast bias khng St=a0+a1Ft-1+ t St: spot rate at time t (realized value); Ft-1: forward rate at time t-1; t: error term 18. Qun tr ri ro t gi hi oi -Qun tr ri ro t gi hi oi l vic o lng s thay i cc ch tiu nh: li nhun, dng tin rng v gi tr th trng ca cng ty do s thay i ca t gi -Nhim v ca nh qun tr ri ro tnh chnh quc t: o lng ri ro t gi hi oi, qun tr ri ro hi oi ti a ha li ch c ng -Phn loi ri ro t gi hi oi: ri ro giao dch, hot ng, k ton 19. Ri ro giao dch -Xut hin khi DN c cc giao dch bng ngoi t -C th, ri ro giao dch l s thay i gi tr ca cc ngha v ti chnh xy ra trc khi t gi bin ng, nhng kt thc sau khi t gi thay i, ngha l, s thay i dng tin t cc ngha v hp ng hin h u 20. Ri ro hot ng

-L s thay i gi tr hin ti ca cng ty, xy ra do s thay i dng tin hot ng trong tng lai ca doanh nghip, m s thay i dng tin ny do t gi thay i ngoi d on -T gi bin ng thng do cc nguyn nhn nh tc tng trng thc t, lm pht, li sut, chnh sch ca chnh ph ng tin cty m/cty con thay i gi tr ni ti TNC thay i chin lc kinh doanh, huy ng vn, operating/economic exposure 21. Ri ro k ton -Xy ra khi TNC chuyn i kt qu ti chnh ca cng ty con t ng tin ca cng ty m hp nht bo co ti chnh -Khng trc tip nh hng n dng tin cng ty m, nhng nh hng n li nhun cng b sau khi hp nht bo co ti chnh- mi quan tm ca c ng v cng chng 22. Nguyn nhn pht sinh ri ro giao dch -Mua bn hng ha/dch v tr chm khi gi c yt bng ngoi t -Vay/cho vay bng ngoi t -Mua ti sn hay n bng ngoi t -Ph bin nht khi DN c khon phi thu hay phi tr bng ngoi t. Ri ro giao dch pht sinh trong 3 giai on: quotation (bo gi), backlog (giai on t khi k hp ng n khi giao hng), billing (thanh ton) 23. o lng ri ro giao dch -o lng li nhun hay l do thc hin cc ngha v ti chnh hin hu bng ngoi t - o lng ri ro giao dch: tnh lng ngoi t rng dng vo/dng ra theo tng ngoi t; xc nh ri ro tng th ca tng ngoi t -Ri ro tng th ca TNC c nh gi da trn s lng mi ngoi t m TNC nm gi v s tng quan gia cc ng tin ny. Vd: nu ngoi t X v Y c mi tng quan cao, ri ro ca dng tin vo ca ngoi t X v dng tin ra ca ngoi t Y c th phn no b tr nhau -Lu : tng quan gia cc ng tin c th thay i theo thi gian 24. Cc bin php qun tr ri ro giao dch K thut phng v (hedging techniques), bao gm: -Contractual hedge: forward, future, option, money market hedge -Natural hedge: b tr cc dng tin hot ng -Cross- hedging 25. Forward and future hedge -A forward hedge: thng lng hp ng t gi k hn, thng vi qui m giao dch ln -A future hedge: mua hp ng tng lai, thng vi nhng giao dch c qui m nh hn. H c chun ha - hedge cc khon phi tr (phi thu), TNC c th mua (bn) ngoi t tng lai/ k hn -Quyt nh hedge hay khng ph thuc: vic so snh gia kt qu chc chn khi hedge v kt qu c tnh khi khng hedge; mc ngi ri ro ca TNC 26. Money market hedge -Phng v dng th trng tin t l vay/ u t ngn hn b tr vi khon phi thu/ phi tr -Cn cn i dng tin vo/ ra theo tng ngoi t v theo thi gian o hn -i vi khon phi tr bng ngoi t: Dng ni t i ra ngoi t, Deposit ngoi t (nu c sn tin- excess cash) Vay ng ni t (nu khng c sn tin hoc khng mun dng tin hin c hedge), i ra ngoi t, sau deposit ngoi t

-/v KPT bng ngoi t: Vay ngoi t , sau i ra ni t v u t ngn hn s tin thu c t khon vay 27. SS phng v bng forward v bng Money market -Nu IRP xy ra, v khng c chi ph giao dch, phng v bng th trng money market v phng v bng forward cho kt qu nh nhau -/v AR, v c c khon vay nn so snh gia 2 phng n, cn tnh ton sut sinh li c th i c khi u t ngn hn khon tin ny 28. Options market hedge -Options market hedge: dng hp ng quyn mua (call option) hay quyn bn (put option) phng v ri ro giao dch -V doanh nghip c th khng thc hin quyn chn nn va c th trnh c thit hi khi t gi bin ng bt li, v c th thu li cao nu t gi bin ng theo hng thun li -KPTr Call option -KPT Put option -Premium ca option c th c tnh trn tng n v ngoi t hoc theo t l % Vd: -Premium $0.04/ CP ca option= s lng ngoi t premium trn mt n v ngoi t -Premium 3% CP ca option= s lng ngoi tt l premium t gi spot 29. Tng hp k thut phng v

-Cn so snh cc phng thc hedge chn ra phng thc lm ti thiu KPTr/ ti a KPT -Lu : kt qu trong TH option l ko chc chn nh trong cc phng thc hedge khc -Thng thng c nhiu hp ng quyn chn khc nhau la chn 30. Qun tr ri ro giao dch trong thc t -B phn ngn qu ca cc TNC thng trc tip qun tr ri ro giao dch -Qun tr ri ro giao dch thng di quan im thn trng (conservative) -TNC thng c chnh sch qui nh r ri ro giao dch no cn hedge, ri ro no khng hedge trong s ri ro quotation, backlog v billing -Nhiu TNC c chnh sch lun lun hedge 1 phn cc ri ro giao dch -Phn hedge bt buc ny thng dng forward hedge -Nu TNC khng dng option hedge th ch yu dng forward hoc money market hedge 31. c im ri ro hot ng -Dng tin ca TNC bao gm: dng tin hot ng v dng tin ti chnh

-Dng tin hot ng: cc dng phi thu, phi tr, tin thu, ph bn quyn, ph cng ngh, ph qun l, gia cc chi nhnh, cng ty m, cng ty con trong cng 1 tp on (intra-company) hoc gia cng ty v cc cng ty bn ngoi (inter-company) -Dng tin ti chnh: thanh ton cc khon vay, rt vn ch s hu (equity injection), chia c tc,cng vi phm vi trong v ngoi tp on -RR hot ng c tc ng quan trng n hot ng kinh doanh trong di hn ca doanh nghip hn ri ro giao dch hay ri ro k ton -Di gc nh u t, nu th trng ngoi hi l hiu qu, thng tin v s thay i k vng ca t gi c phn nh trong gi tr th trng ca doanh nghip -Ch nhng thay i ngoi d on ca t gi, hoc th trng ngoi hi khng hiu qu, mi lm thay i gi tr th trng ca DN -Mc tiu ca qun tr ri ro hot ng: ch ng iu chnh hot ng trc nhng bin ng bt ng ca t gi, hn l ch trng i t gi bin ng theo hng c li TNC a dng ha hot ng kinh doanh v hot ng ti chnh TNC cng c th phi thay i chnh sch hot ng 32. o lng ri ro hot ng -Phn tch nhy: TNC c th o lng ri ro hot ng bng cch phn tch nhy ca doanh thu v chi ph theo bin t gi -Phn tch hi quy:

33. Bin php qun tr ri ro hot ng -TNC c th gim ri ro hot ng bng vic thc hin cc chin lc hot ng hay ti tr ph hp, khi to ra cc dng tin b tr nhau -6 phng thc thng c s dng gim thiu ri ro hot ng: Matching currency cash flows (cn i dng tin ) Rish- sharing agreements (H chia s ri ro) Back-to-back or parallel loans (Vay gip lng) Currency swaps (hon i tin t) Leads and lags Reinvoicing center 34. Matching currency cash flows: lin quan n ti cu trc hot ng ca TNC -Gim ri ro t gi trong di hn /v 1 ngoi t vay vn bng ngoi t - matching -Tm kim nh cung cp u vo QG m hng ha c tiu th -Hoc thay i ng tin thanh ton- tr tin cho nh cung cp nc ngoi bng ng tin ca quc gia m ti cng ty c thu nhp

-Cn phi phn tch tc ng trong di hn ca vic ti c cu hot ng kinh doanh v hot ng ti chnh khi qun tr ri ro hot ng 35. Risk-sharing -/v i tc c quan h mua bn lu di, cc bn c th k kt hp ng chia s ri ro t gi hi oi gim p lc ri ro t gi cho c 2 bn. Mc tiu: pht trin quan h hp tc lu di -c s dng t 50 nm trc. t c s dng trong thp nin 60 nhng li c s dng rng ri t thp nin 70 -Khi t gi c xu hng tng/gim r rt thng lng hp ng chia s ri ro mi 36. Back-to-back loans -Cn c gi l parallel loan hay credit swap -Xy ra khi 2 DN 2 nc vay ng tin ca nhau trong 1 khong thi gian nht nh -S hon i nh vy gip phng v ri ro t gi -Thng c s dng trong cc hot ng ti tr vn t cty m sang cty con nc ngoi -C th s dng phng thc ny khi hin ti hay trong tng lai c th c cc iu lut hn ch chuyn vn ra nc ngoi Hn ch ca phng thc ny: rt kh tm c i tc tha mn cc kha cnh: ng tin vay, khi lng vay, thi gian vay 37. Currency swaps: -Tng t nh back-to-back loan nhng giao dch ny khng th hin trn bn CKT nh back-to-back loan -1 cty v 1 mi gii/ ngn hng tha thun trao i 2 loi tin t trong 1 khong thi gian o hn nht nh (c th ln n 10 nm) -Giao dch hon i tin t trc tin cn 2 cty vay vn 2 th trng quen thuc ca h. Vd: cty Nht vay ng Yn, cty M vay la M -Mi gii thng tm kim v matching hai bn trn c s 2 bn khng bit v nhau m ch thng qua mi gii -Mi gii c th tnh thm ph b p chnh lch li sut gia 2 ng tin -Nguyn tc k ton M: xem giao dch currency swap l giao dch ngoi hi hn l giao dch vay n, v ngha v chi tr ngc li thi im sau l giao dch ngoi hi k hn 38. Leads and lags: iu chnh thi gian thanh ton -Cty c th gim ri ro giao dch cng nh ri ro hot ng bng cch tr trc hay tr chm /v cc ngha v thanh ton bng ngoi t -To lead: tr trc, khi cty ang nm gi ng tin yu v/hoc c khon n bng ng tin mnh -To lag: tr chm- khi khon n/ phi tr bng ng tin yu -/v KPT: thu sm /v ng tin yu v thu chm /v ng tin mnh -Intracompany leads&lags: thun li hn v thng c mc tiu chung -Nhiu chnh ph c qui nh c th v thi gian c php lead/lag /v thanh ton hng ha XNK -Intercompany leads & lags: kh thc hin hn 39. Reinvoicing centers: -Separate corporate subsidiary that serves as a type of middleman between parent and all foreign subsidiaries of a TNC -Cc cty con bn hng ni b thng qua reinvoicing center. Quyn s hu l ca RC nhng hng ha thc s chuyn n cty con khc -Tt c cng ty con giao dch bng ng ni t, tt c ri ro t gi c chuyn sang RC

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- trnh cc co buc v gi chuyn giao, cc RC thng tnh ph cho dch v ny -Li ch ca RC: Qun tr hiu qu ri ro t gi: do tt c ri ro giao dch c tp trung vo 1 b phn. Nhn vin ca RC thng c chuyn mn cao v c nng lc thng lng tt vi cc ngn hng do c qui m giao dch ln m bo t gi cho cc n hng tng lai tng kh nng hoch nh, u thu,Cc cty con tp trung cho cc hot ng sales, marketing ct li m khng cn lo ngi ri ro t gi RC v tr thun li qun tr cc dng tin ni b tp on, c kh nng s dng leads/ lags hp l -Nhc im RC: chi ph thnh lp cao, cc chi ph t vn lut, thu,cao 40. Ri ro k ton: -Xy ra khi TNC chuyn i s liu ti chnh t ng tin ca cty con sang ng tin cty m cho mc ch hp nht BCTC. Qun tr ri ro k ton cn thit c quan tm mc d khng nh hng su sc n H ca DN -Kha cnh dng tin: Bn thn vic chuyn i BCTC t ng tin cty con sang ng tin cty m cho mc ch hp nht BCTC tp on khng nh hng dng tin cty m TNC Tuy nhin cty con s chuyn li nhun v cng ty m trong tng lai. Nu ng tin cty con hin v th yu dng tin k vng trong tng lai b nh hng translation exposure is relevant -Kha cnh gi c phiu (Stock Price Perspective): V ri ro k ton nh hng n li nhun hp nht; nh u t & c ng li da vo thng tin ny nh gi gi tr DN In general, translation exposure is relevant 41. o lng ri ro k ton -RR k ton ca TNC ph thuc: T l hot ng kinh doanh c cc cty con thc hin a im t cc cty con Chun mc k ton p dng -Nguyn tc chuyn i Cc TK, khon mc trong BCTC s c chuyn i s dng t gi no Li/ l do chuyn i BCTC c hch ton nh th no 42. Phng php chuyn i: 2 PP -Current rate method: hu ht cc khon mc ca BCTC c chuyn i dng t gi hin ti vi 1 vi ngoi l (vd: VCSH) -Temporal method: 1 s TS v n (vd: tn kho, TSC), VCSH s dng t gi ca ngy khon mc c to ra 43. Li/ l do chuyn i c hch ton: -Current rate method: phn li/ l ny khng tnh vo bo co li l hp nht, m c hch ton ring vo 1 ti khon CTA -Temporal method: phn li/ l ny c tnh trc tip vo bo co li l hp nht 44. p dng nguyn tc chuyn i ph thuc vo: -c tnh ca cty con : cty ph thuc hay cty con c lp -ng tin chc nng: ng tin to ra dng tin c bn ca DN -Tp qun quc t: Integrated foreign entities: s dng temporal method Self- sustaining entities: s dng current rate method

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-i vi th trng M: nu ng tin chc nng ca cng ty con l: ng tin nc s ti current rate ng USD temporal ng tin khc BCTC c chuyn i sang ng tin chc nng bng temporal method, sau tip tc chuyn sang ng USD bng current rate 45. Bin php qun tr ri ro k ton -TNC c th gim thiu ri ro k ton bng cch cn i n v TS ngoi t balance sheet hedge -S dng forward and future hedge ri ro k ton. C th, TNC c th bn ngoi t m cty con thu c theo hp ng k hn to ra dng tin ra bng ngoi t b p dng tin vo Vd: TNC M c ri ro k ton i vi thu nhp ca cty con ti Anh H bn ng pound k hn 1 nm Nu ng pound gim gi tr trong nm ti chnh, li nhun c c t H k hn s gip b tr vi l do vic chuyn i ng tin k ton -Tuy nhin, vic hedge ri ro k ton cng b hn ch do: D on thu nhp kh chnh xc Kh thc hin H forward vi 1 s ng tin Cc vn v k ton (vic la chn t gi chuyn i- translation exchange rate, cc vn thu, ) -Nu ngoi t thu c t cng ty con nc ngoi thay i gi tr, li nhun/ l t hp ng k hn s b p vi l/ li nhun do chuyn i ng tin cho mc ch hp nht BCTC -Vi 1 bin php nht nh, khng th cng lc loi tr ri ro giao dch v ri ro k ton -Li nhun t chuyn i ng tin cho mc ch hp nht BCTC l li nhun trn bo co, trn giy trong khi l t H hedge l l thc t CHNG 3: QUN TR VN DI HN 1. Quyt nh u t trc tip nc ngoi ca TNC M hnh OLI (John Dunning) O: Ownership advantage: li th s hu L: Location advantage: li th a im I: Internalization advantage: li th ni b ha Tm li, TNC s u t trc tip nc ngoi khi c li th O&I, u t ti cc th trng/ quc gia c li th L 2. Li th s hu (O): -DN u t ra nc ngoi khi c li th cnh tranh. Li th ny phi: Ring bit, c quyn C th chuyn giao, khai thc nc ngoi mnh b p bt li ca kinh doanh quc t (ri ro t gi, chnh tr, agency cost cao) -Li th s hu gm 5 nhm: Ti sn tr tu, thng hiu, kinh nghim qun l Tnh li th theo qui m Sc mnh ti chnh Kh nng hp tc vi cc DN khc v nhn bit cc c hi M&A Nng lc cnh tranh quc gia 3. Li th a im ca nc nhn u t (L):

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-L: gm cc nhn t kinh t, chnh tr, XH, nc tip nhn u t. TNC u t quc gia no c k thun li, c li th so snh, ph hp vi ng c u t ca TNC -iu kin quan trng ca li th L: tn ti cc nhn t gip TNC pht huy c li th s hu 4. Li th ni b ha (I): -TNC u t trc tip kim sot ton b chui cung ng khi: C kh nng khai thc li th s hu nc ngoi nhng trong ni b tp on Th trng nc ngoi khng hon ho, khng c i tc licensing/ outsourcing ng tin cy C th to ra cc lin kt dc, cc cty con c th mua bn nguyn liu v thnh phm cho nhau 5. Tc ng ca FDI /v TNC -Tch cc:

-Tiu cc: Di chuyn sx ra nc ngoi ln song phn i ca nhng ngi tht nghip R r cng ngh, b quyt kinh doanh 6. Tc ng ca FDI /v nc tip nhn -Tch cc: To vic lm To ng thi mi cho nn KT, kch thch cnh tranh Tng nng lc cng ngh QG Nng cao cht lng NNL -Tiu cc: ch yu /v cc nc ang pht trin nhim MT Trit tiu nng lc cnh tranh ca cc DN trong nc H chuyn gi (nhm gim LN ti cc nc c thu sut cao, tng LN nc c thu sut thp thng qua qu trnh chuyn gi ni b) C th nh hng xu n CCTT nu DN FDI nhp khu NVL u vo v SX, tiu th Th trng trong nc

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Ph thuc v KT, nh hng CT,VH,XH 7. Xu hng FDI trn th gii -FDI tng trng mnh trong nhng nm 1990-2000, suy gim trong giai on 2001-2003, tng mnh t 2004-2007 v li suy gim t sau nm 2007 n nay -Cc nc pht trin l ni thu ht nhiu FDI nht. Tuy nhin t 2010, cc nc ang pht trin v cc nn kinh t chuyn i thu ht > 53% tng FDI ton cu -Cc TNC ca cc nc pht trin l cc ch u ch yu -Tuy nhin, cc TNC t cc nc ang pht trin cng ngy cng y mnh hot ng u t ton cu -Cc TNC thuc s hu nh nc cng c vai tr ngy cng quan trng -C s thay i su sc trong lnh vc u t. Hin nay cc TNC ch yu u t vo nhng ngnh c hm lng cht xm cao -M&A l hnh thc FDI ch o. Tuy nhin t khng hong 2008, u t mi (GI) chim u th hn 8. Cc loi ri ro chnh tr qun tr ri ro, TNC phi phn loi ri ro chnh tr, gm 3 nhm ri ro: -Ri ro doanh nghip hay ri ro vi m -Ri ro quc gia/ ri ro v m Ri ro ton cu 9. Ri ro vi m -l nhng ri ro tc ng n TNC cp d n hay cp doanh nghip -Ri ro qun tr l ri ro chnh thuc nhm ri ro vi m. l ri ro /v vic qun l hiu qu hot ng ca TNC trong mi trng php l v chnh tr ca nc tip nhn u t 10. Ri ro v m -l nhng ri ro chnh tr xut pht t cp quc gia, nh hng n hot ng ca TNC. 2 loi ri ro quc gia chnh: ri ro chuyn tin, vn ha& th ch -Ri ro vn ha & th ch gm: Cu trc s hu trong DN C cu nhn s Tn gio Vn ha, thi ngi tiu dng Thi gia nh tr, quan liu, tham nhng Chin tranh, nh cng Vi phm s hu tr tu Bo h 11. Ri ro ton cu: l nhng ri ro cp ton cu, vd: khng b, chin tranh; phong tro ton cu ha, i ngho; tn cng mng 12. Tm quan trng phi phn tch ri ro chnh tr -TNC phi phn tch rr chnh tr : tm v m: ra quyt nh u t trc tip nc ngoi tm vi m: H ca DN c xung t li ch vi chnh ph nc tip nhn? D on cc thay i chnh sch nc tip nhn c nh hng ntn n hot ng DN Ra quyt nh u t hay quyt nh ti tr di hn 13. o lng rr chnh tr -Lit k tt c cc ri ro chnh tr

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-Xc nh gi tr v trng s cho cc ri ro ny. xc nh hiu qu cn: thu thp kin chuyn gia, cc doanh nhn; phn tch nh lng; i thc t -Tng hp ra ch s ri ro chnh tr xp hng, so snh -C th s dng cc dch v t vn 14. Qun tr ri ro vi m -D on cc kh khn, thng lng hiu v hi ha li ch cc bn - xut k cc hip nh u t quc t (IIA) -Tham gia bo him v bo m u t, v d OPIC -Cc ni dung thng gp trong IIA: Qui nh v quc hu ha Khng hn ch chuyn tin Cc vn v gi chuyn giao Quyn xut khu Thu Tip cn th trng vn T l s hu trong doanh nghip FDI Quyn kim sot gi ca nh nc Qui nh v t l ni a ha Qui nh v s dng lao ng nc ngoi Gii quyt tranh chp -Ngay c khi IIA c k kt & tin hnh u t trc tip, TNC vn phi cn nhc cc chin lc hot ng: S dng nguyn liu ni a Ni t nh my & kim sot phng tin vn ti Kim sot cng ngh, th trng, thng hiu S dng vn vay t ngn hng ti nc tip nhn a dng ha ngun vay t nhiu quc gia 15. Qun tr ri ro quc gia (v m) -/v ri ro chuyn tin: Trc khi u t, TNC phn tch tc ng ca vic cm chuyn tin blocked funds trong hoch nh ngn qu o Dng tin ch b ng bng trong ngn hn gim NPV ca d n o Cc phng n gim thiu thit hi do blocked funds: s dng vn vay ni a thay v VCSH t cty m, H hon i, Trong thi gian hot ng: c th di chuyn tin thng qua mt s k thut o Thanh ton hng ha, ph qun l, cng ngh, tin vay, cho cty m o Chuyn gi o Leads/lags o Vay qua ngn hng trung gian o XK o Xin min tr c bit Tuy nhin nu lm dng cc bin php trn s lm tng ri ro chnh tr vic cm chuyn tin s tr thnh di hn ch khng cn l tm thi

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Cc dng tin khng th di chuyn phi c ti u t nc tip nhn. Lu n lm pht v s mt gi tr ca ng tin o Nu vic cm chuyn tin l tm thi u t vo cng c ca th trng tin t ti nc tip nhn o Nu khng phi l tm thi u t vo sx hoc mua ti sn c xu hng tng gi (t, bt ng sn, hng ha,..) -/v ri ro vn ha, th ch Tm hiu & tn trng vn ha, tn gio nc tip nhn C chnh sch v x l cc yu sch hi l mt cch r rang. Nn tuyt i t chi ngay t u. C th thu cc bn t vn c s am hiu th trng qun tr ri ro v bo h, cc nc ch u t: tham gia vo cc hip nh thng mi t do gim thiu ri ro b quc hu ha, trng thu bi chnh ph nc tip nhn: o S dng nhiu lao ng ni a o Vay ni a o u t d n thu hi vn nhanh o S dng CN c bit o Mua BH u t -/v ri ro ton cu: Khng b: o /v khng b loi tr trong phm vi bo him. TNC ch c th ng h n lc chng khng b ca cc CP o Crisis planning: hng dn nhn vin cch ng ph khi tnh hnh bt n xy ra o Hp l ha mng li sn xut ton cu, qun tr tt tn kho trnh b ngng tr sx khi tnh hnh xu Phong tro chng ton cu ha o Thc hin tt trch nhim XH ca DN CSR o c bit lu bo v mi trng o Gp phn gim i ngho 16. P/tch ri ro & qun tr ngn qu quc t -Nu rr chnh tr ca 1 nc nm trong gii hn cho php cn nhc tin hng u t trc tip -P/tch ri ro chnh tr c th c s dng trong qu trnh hoch nh/ qun tr ngn qu quc t bng cch: iu chnh chi ph s dng vn/ sut chit khu dng tin iu chnh dng tin d n -Ri ro cng cao, h s chit khu cng ln -P/tch tng loi ri ro c tc ng n d n nh th no iu chnh dng tin d n v xc nh phn b xc sut ca NPV ca d n 17. Cc phng thc ti cu trc -Thnh lp chi nhnh/ cty con mi -Mua li 1 cty: mua li 1 phn hay ton phn -Gim quy m hay chuyn sx sang cc cty con khc -Tham gia cc lin minh chin lc quc t

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