TRNG I HC KINH T TP,H CH MINH

KHOA NGN HNG

LP NH7-K34

Phn 3

Danh sch nhm lp NH7 K34

1. Phm Th Hng Hu

STT : 11

2. Phm Th Ngc Lan

STT : 15

3. Nguyn Thy Lin (NT) STT : 16

4. Nguyn Th Thi Ngn

STT : 21

5. Nguyn Vit Trng Sn STT : 30

6. Nguyn Th Xun Yn

STT : 45

7. L Th Yn

STT : 46

MC LC
MC LC......................................................................................................................... 2
KT LUN...................................................................................................................14

1. Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC)

Tnh chi ph s dng vn ch s hu:
re = rf + *(rm - rf)
Trong : rm - rf = 11%
rf = 11,2% (ly s liu da trn kt qu u thu tri phiu Chnh ph k hn 5
nm do kho bc Nh nc pht hnh, u thu ngy 11/2/2011.)
= 1,1147

(bng s liu)

re = 11,2% + 1,1147*11% = 23,46%

Tnh chi ph s dng vn vay rd:
Tri phiu ca SUDICO pht hnh tr gi 500 t ng, thi hn ca Tri phiu l 3
nm, ngy pht hnh l 08/07/2009, ngy o hn 08/07/2012, trong qui nh li sut
12,5% trong nm 2009, nm 2010 v 2011 li sut tnh theo li sut tin gi tit kim tr
sau k hn 12 thng ca bn ngn hng thng mi ti H Ni : Agribank, Vietcombank,
Vietinbank, BIDV ti ngy xc nh li sut. C th tnh c li sut ca cc ngn hng
ny trong hai nm ny khong 14%/nm. Chi ph pht hnh tri phiu 2.954.545.454.
Do :
500.000 2.954,545454 =

500.000 * 12.5% 500.000 * 14% 500.000 *14% 500.000

+
+
+
1 + rd
(1 + rd ) 2
(1 + rd ) 3
(1 + rd ) 3

rd = 13,69%/nm.
Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun:
E
D
+ rd (1 t )
E +D
D +E
2.177.918,063
500.000
= 23,46%
+13,69% * (1 25%)
= 21%
2.177.918,063 + 500.000
500.000 + 2.177.918,063
r = WACC = re

2. nh gi c phiu
2.1. Cc ch tiu nm 2010
EBIT hot ng kinh doanh
thu

618.086.111.983
154.521.527.996
463.564.583.987
2.026.781.627.654
22,87%
1.838.478.865.427
3.509.601.570

EBIT(1-T)
TSL + TSC - N NH - T.mt
ROC
Vn u t vo TSC
KH
chnh kch VL
t l ti u t
tc tng trng g
C tc 2010
FCFF

(1.206.623.761.107)
136%
31,00%
1.200
(164.780.918.763)

2.2. D bo cc yu t t nm 2011 n nm 2016

Nm
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph qun l DN

2009

Ti sn c nh
Khu hao
Vn u t TSC
N ngn hn
Tin mt
Ti sn lu ng
Vn lu ng
Chnh lch vn lu
ng
Nm
Doanh thu
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph bn hng
Chi ph qun l
DN

733.563.653.09
4
708.019.279.90
5
992.172.324.04
2
258.608.670.94
8

2010
1.016.750.112.952
346.034.874.050
3.409.604.159
49.209.301.355

2011
1.189.597.632.154
404.860.802.639
4.125.621.032
56.590.696.558

2012
1.546.476.921.800
526.319.043.430
4.950.745.239
65.079.301.042

3.137.802.347.461
3.509.601.570
1.838.478.865.427

3.151.641.171.969
4.503.687.958
98.725.496.297

3.164.411.549.742
5.572.134.693
98.725.496.297

1.641.544.901.358

2.495.148.250.000

2.744.663.075.000

163.005.629.648

200.496.924.467

242.601.278.605

693.529.811.199

737.915.719.116

923.132.564.614

-948.015.090.159

-1.757.232.530.884

-1.821.530.510.386

-1.206.623.761.107

-809.217.440.725

-64.297.979.502

2013
1.360.899.691.184
684.214.756.459
8.416.266.906

2014
1.769.169.598.539
889.479.183.397
10.941.146.978

2015
2.352.995.566.057
1.183.007.313.918
14.223.491.071

74.841.196.198

86.067.375.628

98.977.481.972

2016

Ti sn c nh
Khu hao
Vn u t TSC

3.175.885.294.049
6.868.768.159
5.114.792.511

3.186.407.387.433
7.820.419.082
17.369.586.670

6.314.183.327.747
9.600.672.230
2.151.020.272.550

6.320.742.620.254
11.783.219.959

N ngn hn
Tin mt
Ti sn lu ng
Vn lu ng
Chnh lch vn
lu ng

2.758.386.394.000
169.820.895.024
738.506.051.691
-2.019.880.342.309

2.896.305.713.000
178.311.939.775
804.971.596.343
-2.091.334.116.657

3.070.084.056.000
199.709.372.548
982.065.347.539
-2.088.018.708.461

3.192.887.419.000
221.677.403.528
1.129.375.149.670
-2.063.512.269.330

-198.349.831.923

-71.453.774.348

3.315.408.196

24.506.439.131

2.2.1. Cc yu t thuc bng Cn i k ton

2.2.1.1.

Tin mt

Nm 2011 d n Khu th mi Nam An Khnh s hon thnh cng tc gii phng mt

bng, hon thnh thi cng 60% phn h tng k thut giai on I; trin khai thi cng h
tng k thut giai on II v khu 33 hc-ta. iu ny s gp phn quan trng vo tng
doanh thu ca Sudico nm 2011
Thm vo cng ty s tip tc bn mt din tch dt nn c h tng va phi trong nm
2011 nhm m bo tng trng doanh thu v li nhun u n ng thi d tr qu t
cho nhng nm tip theo.k vng hot ng kinh doanh bt ng sn ca cng ty s em
li 1895 t VND trong nam 2011,trong s tin mt chim khon 10_12%
C th khng nh ngun thu v li nhun chinh ca cng ty trong khong 3 nm ti s
tng v n ch yu t cc d n tim nng:
+ D an Nam An Khnh: vn u t 2600 t
Thi gian : 2006_2016
y vn l d n mang li doanh thu chnh cho cng ty trong nm 2011. SJS nhn c
ph duyt quy hoch iu chnh 1/500 trong thng 6/2011 v c th bt u tin hnh trin
khai kinh doanh trong thi gian ti. Theo SJS, doanh thu nm 2011 t d n Nam An
Khnh c th t khong 2.200 t ng.
+ D n La Vn La Kh : Vn u t : 1300 t
Thi gian : 2009_2013

SJS hin hon thnh c bn cng tc thi cng h tng k thut ca ton b d n. D
kin d n Vn La Vn Kh c th em li cho SJS khong 1.175 t ng doanh thu trong
nm 2011.
+ D n Ph Ni_Hng Yn: Vn u t :761 t
Thi gian : 2011_2013..
Do ngun tin mt ca cng ty trong nhng nm sau s tng trung bnh tng
khong 20-25%.Theo d bo nm 2013 , 30% s c thm 1 cuc khng hong xy ra
nn nm 2013 s lm tin mt gim 30% thay v tip tc tng vi tc nh c v kh
bn c trong giai on khng hong.Sau nm 2013,theo ng tin 1 s d n
hon thnh,ch cn li d n Nam An Khnh v c th c 1 s d n mi ,v vy lng
tin mt thu vo ca cng ty s d on tng nh 5-7% v nhng nm v sau gi tc
tng n nh khong 10-15% cho n nhng nm v sau.
2.2.1.2.

Ti sn lu ng

Ti sn lu ng ca cng ty lin tc c d on l tng trong nhng nm sau,nh vo

khon tin mt thu c, ng thi cc khon hng tn kho v khon phi thu khch hng
cng tng. Tuy nhin, do tnh hnh th trng chng khon khng gp nhiu thun li, cng
ty s tin hnh ct gim cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn trong 1-2 nm, c cu ha
danh mc u t mang li li nhun n nh hn v trnh c cc ri ro. Chnh v vy,
trong 2 nm 2011,2012, ti sn lu ng s gim do u t ti chnh gim. Sau nm 2012,
Ti sn lu ng s tng hoc gim gn vi 1,5 ln t l tng hoc gim ca tin mt, do
khon tng ca hng tn kho v phi thu ngn hn cng thm.
2.2.1.3.

N Ngn hn

Trn thc t SJS y mnh s dng n by ti chnh t 2009 nhm huy ng vn u

t vo 2 d n ln Nam An Khnh v La Vn_La Kh. Mt d cng ty c ngun tin mt
ng k thu c t cc d n trn nhng cng ty vn phi tng cng vay n v khon
tin mt khng .Do vy d n ngn hn ca cng ty d on s lin tc tng trong
nhng nam sau.Hn na 1 trong nhng l do lm d n tng l s tng ln ca khon
khch hng ng trc v khon phi tr khch hng.D on cc khon vay mi s tng
khong 27-30% trong nm ti, nhng nh ngun doanh thu thu c t vic bn c
6

cc cng trnh hon thnh s gip cng ty ln lt tr ht nhng khon n gc v li

vay vay trc y. V d nh t cui nm 2010 n gia 6 thng /2011, cc khon vay
ngn hn ca cng ty gim i 15 t ng, nn d bo nhng nm sau N ngn hn ch
tng t 20-23%
n nm 2014 lng tin mt ca cng ty gim,nn ti tr cho cc d n mi cng ty
s gia tng vay n.Do d n ngn hn s tip tc tng,khong 5_10%
2.2.1.4.

Ti sn c nh

Theo di bng s liu t nm 2008-2010, ta nhn thy, mi nm nguyn gi Ti sn c

nh hu hnh s tng thm khong 6 t
V ti sn c nh v hnh nm 2010 c khu hao ht, nhng tham kho bo co ti
chnh 2 qu u 2011, ta thy ti sn c nh v hnh tng thm 12.342.512.466 l
quyn s dng t s c khu hao trong vng 45 nm, mi nm s khu hao 1 gi tr l
135.549.222, c tr i trong nguyn gi ti sn c nh v hnh
V chi ph xy dng c bn d dang, s c nhng cng trnh hon thnh a vo s dng
nhng ng thi SJS cng ang nghin cu, chun b a vo thi cng nhng cng trnh
mi nn c th xem chi ph xy dng ny khng i qua cc nm.
Ring nm 2013, do nhm d bo s c 1 cuc khng hong ti chnh, tng t nh
khng hong nm 2008, s nh hng n Vit Nam nm 2014, khin cng ty s thanh l
nhiu ti sn c nh trong nm 2014 v mua li ti sn c nh mi nm 2015.Gi tr tng
tng t nh t nm 2009-2010 cng thm t l lm pht
2.2.1.5.

Khu hao

Quan st ti sn c nh hu hnh qua cc nm, vi mi nm nguyn gi tng thm 6 t, t

l khu hao ti sn c nh hu hnh mi nm s tng thm 24,46%, ring nm 2014 do
nh hng ca cuc khng hong dn n vic thanh l 1 s ti sn c nh, gi tr khu
hao s gim tn ng vi mc gim t 2008-2009 ly k n 2014
V ti sn c nh v hnh, vi gi tr quyn s dng t bt u c khu hao t nm
2011 trong vng 45 nm , mi nm khu hao 135.549.222 s c ly k cng dn vo.
2.2.1.6.

Vn u t vo Ti sn c nh

Theo bo co ti chnh 2 qu u nm 2011, gi tr vn u t vo ti sn c nh c

nhm c lng cho nm 2011 l 98.725.496.297 v tng t cho nm 2012 vi nhiu cng
trnh ang hon thnh. Giai on nm 2013-2015 c nhm nh gi c kh nng xy ra
khng hong kinh t nn gi tr u t c nh gi tng t nh nm 2008-2010 nhn vi
t l lm pht. Ring t nm 2016, nhm d on cng ty s i vo giai on n nh, nn
mi nm s u t vo ti sn c nh tng ng 1 khon bng nm 2013.
2.2.2. Cc yu t thuc Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh
Doanh thu : d bo doanh thu da vo cc yu t sau:
+ Cc d n, cng trnh ca cng ty c hon thnh ang a vo kinh doanh
Tnh ti thi im hin nay th cng ty c kh nhiu cng trnh, d n c vn u t ln
v quan trng ang c kinh doanh nh khu th Nam An Khnh (c vn u t ln),
khu th M nh-M Tr, khch sn Sng -H Long, khu du lch Sng - Ngc
Vng ( d on doanh thu 37,75 t n 93,73 t / 1 nm).
+ T l th ha

Theo biu trn ta thy rng t l th ha ca nc ta tng dn qua cc nm, ti nm

2020 t l th ha ln ti 45% m t thnh ph, thnh th th khng tng. iu ny c
ngha l cng ngy s c cng nhiu cc trung c cao tng, cc cn h bn hoc cho thu,
khu th mi dp ng nhu cu ca ngi dn. M y chnh l lnh vc kinh doanh
chnh ca cng ty, t l th ha cng cao ha hn tim nng kinh doanh cho cng ty cng
ln.
+ Cc chnh sch pht trin th, ng, in ca nh nc. Hin nay, chnh
ph ang cho thc hin rt nhiu d n, cng trnh mang tnh m rng, pht trin t nc
8

nh d n ng dy 500KV ng Nai (do cng ty ang thc hin), pht trin m hnh th
H Ni nm 2020, hay d tnh xy cc tuyn tu in cao tc xuyn t nc (d on
s c bt u xy dng trong nm 2014).M cng l cng ty c 51% vn nh nc nn
rt c u tin trong vic u thu d n ( li th ca cng ty), to nn kh nng tng
doanh thu trong cc nm tip theo l rt ln.
+ GDP
Nm
2008
2009
2010
2011 (d on)
GDP
1108752
1436955
1580461
1817530
T bng ny ta c th thy GDP ca nc ta ngy cng tng v d on nm 2011 tng
15% so vi nm 2010.

Da vo bng doanh thu thun ca cng ty trong nm 2007 v 2008 ta thy rng doanh
thu chnh ca cng ty n t hot ng chuyn quyn s dng t v kinh doanh nh.
Ngi Vit Nam c tnh thch an ton, n chc, mc bn v vy nh ca i vi h l
quan trng nht. phng Ty ngi ta c th tiu xi rt nhiu tin cho vic n chi, gii
tr v nh thu, nhng ngi Vit Nam ta th khng, khi cha mua c mt cn nh th
h s tiu xi tit kim cho ti khi mua c th thi. V vy, khi thu nhp bnh qun trn
u ngi tng chng ta c th d on c nhu cu v nh cng s tng theo ( cha c
9

nh th mua nh, c nh ri th mun mua nh to, c nh to ri th mua nh to hn v cao

cp hn).
+ Chnh sch cho vay t cc Ngn hng
Hin nay hu ht cc Ngn Hng u cnh tranh nhau v vic cho vay, trong ang
pht trin hnh thc khch hng vay th chp bng chnh ngi nh s mua. Ngoi vic c
vay tin mua nh ri tr gp khch hng cn c hng rt nhiu u i khch nh
trng thng, li sut 0%..... iu ny to iu kin cho ngi c thu nhp trung bnh c th
mua nh thnh th cng nh cc vng khc.
+ Tnh hnh kinh t th trng
Ngoi cc yu t nu ra th y l yu t c nh hng khng tt n doanh thu ca
cng ty bt ng sn cng nh cc cng ty trong cc lnh vc khc. Khi Chu u, M lm
vo khng hong n th nc ta cng khng th trnh khi nh hng. khc phc tnh
trng khng hong h s tht cht chi tiu iu ny nh hng rt ln n tnh hnh xut
khu nc ta, n s lm gim thu nhp ca cc doanh nghip xut khu v thu nhp ca
ngi dn c nc, khng tin trang tri cuc sng th rt kh ngh ti vic mua nh.
Nhng cng ty c th nh mnh lnh vc cho thu thay cho doanh thu t vic bn nh.
T nhng yu t nu trn ta c th d on doanh thu ca cng ty s tng trong cc
nm ti.
Gi vn hng bn v cc loi chi ph
+ Khi doanh thu tng ln th chi ph cng tng ln theo.
+ Lm pht lm tng gi vn v cc chi ph ca doanh nghip (ln hn mc lm pht). Lm
pht nc ta lun mc cao trong cc nm qua nn nhm d on lm pht s vn mc
trn 10%.
+ Hin nay tnh hnh kinh t ca Vit Nam vn cha th n nh nn li sut cho vay t cc
t chc tn dng vn cn rt cao so vi cc nc khc nn to p lc chi ph cao i vi cc
doanh nghip.
T nhng yu t trn, d on chi ph ca cng ty s tng trong nhng nm ti.
+ D on c s khc bit trong nm 2013 : theo d on ca nhiu chuyn gia kinh t trn
th gii nh Gio s Nouriel Roubini, Cng ty Solid Menedzhment th s xy ra cuc
10

khng hong kinh t vo nm 2013 do s tn ti ca 4 yu t tiu cc l qu trnh ti c cu

n ti chu u (cuc khng hong c th thot ra ngoi s kim sot ca cc chnh ph nh
Hy Lp, , Ty Ban Nha), tnh trng nh n Nht Bn, tng trng chm li ti
Trung Quc v nhng kh khn ti chnh ca M (thm ht ngn sch ca M l hn
1.000 t USD, nm 2012 v 2013 cng c th thm ht mc ny. Trong thi gian ti,
nc M s i mt vi hai vn c bn l c nhiu khon n xu v nhiu c s sn xut
khng hot ng.). Tt c cc nc ang tip tc i trn con ng gia tng n cng v n
t nhn, v chm nht vo nm 2013, tt c nhng khon n nn ny s cho thy hu qu
ca n, 4 yu t tiu cc trn c kh nng ti 30% s to ra mt cn bo kinh t ton din
Bng d on tng (gim) doanh thu, gi vn v cc loi chi ph so vi nm trc
(bao gm t l lm pht).
Nm

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Doanh thu thun

17%

40%

-12%

30%

33%

Gi vn hng bn
CPBH

17%
21%

30%
20%

30%
70%

30%
30%

33%
30%

CPQLDN
2.2.3. C tc

15%

15%

15%

15%

15%

Vi nhng d bo v s thay i ca doanh thu, gi vn hng bn, chi ph bn hng, chi

ph qun l doanh nghip, nhm gi nh cc yu t cn li ca bng bo co kt qu hot
ng kinh doanh l khng i, t tnh c thu nhp trn mi c phiu mi nm (EPS)
v nhm da trn t l chi tr c tc trung bnh t nm 2008 n 2010 l 50% tnh c
d bo chi tr c tc mi nm t 2011-2015. Ring t nm 2016 tr i, vi d bo tc
tng trng u n nh cho nhng nm v sau l 5%
nn c tc nm 2016=c tc 2015 x (1+5%)
Nm
C tc

2010
1.200

2011
2.687

2012
3.538

2013
2.195

2014
2.908

2015
3.940

2016
4.137

2.3. Xc nh tr gi ca c phiu

11

Vic nh gi c phiu cui nm 2010 u 2011 c xc nh theo 2 phng php l

DDM v FCFF vi gi nh ca nhm a ra l t nm 2016 , tc tng trng ca li
nhun v c tc s c duy tr mc n nh l g=5%
2.3.1. Theo phng php DDM : Ta c c tc c d bo qua cc nm l :
D2011 = 2.687
D2012 = 3.538
D2013 = 2.195
D2014 = 2.908
D2015 = 3.940
Gi s t nm 2016 tr i, tc tng trng c tc c duy tr mc n nh l g =
5%/nm -> D2016 = D2015 * (1+5%) = 4.137
Vi li sut chit khu re = 23.46%
Po =

D2011
D2012
D2013
D2014
D2015
D5 (1 + g )
+
+
+
+
+
2
3
4
5
1 + re (1 + re )
(1 + re )
(1 + re )
(1 + re )
(1 + re ) 5 (re g )

= 16.102
2.3.2. Theo phng php FCFF
Nm
EBIT hot ng kinh doanh
thu
EBIT(1-T)
TSL + TSC - N NH - T.mt
ROC

2011
724.020.511.925
181.005.127.981
543.015.383.944
1.193.911.716.618
45,48%

2012
950.127.832.089
237.531.958.022
712.595.874.067
1.100.279.760.751
64,76%

2013
593.427.471.621
148.356.867.905
445.070.603.715
986.184.056.716
45,13%

Vn u t vo TSC
KH
chnh kch VL

98.725.496.297
4.503.687.958
(809.217.440.725)

98.725.496.297
5.572.134.693
(64.297.979.502)

5.114.792.511
6.868.768.159
(198.349.831.923)

t l ti u t
tc tng trng g
C tc 2010

-132%
-59,89%
2.687

4,05%
2,62%
3.538

-44,96%
-20,29%
2.195

12

FCFF

1.258.011.016.330

683.740.491.965

645.174.411.286

Nm
EBIT hot ng kinh doanh
thu
EBIT(1-T)
TSL + TSC - N NH - T.mt
ROC

2014
782.681.892.536
195.670.473.134
587.011.419.402
916.761.331.002
64,03%

2015
1.056.787.279.096
264.196.819.774
792.590.459.322
4.026.455.246.738
19,68%

832.219.982.288
4.035.552.947.396
20,62%

Vn u t vo TSC
KH
chnh kch VL

17.369.586.670
7.820.419.082
(71.453.774.348)

2.151.020.272.550
9.600.672.230
3.315.408.196

11.783.219.959
24.506.439.131

t l ti u t
tc tng trng g
C tc 2010

-10,55%
-6,75%
2.908

271%
53,27%
3.940

24,25%
5,00%
4.137

FCFF

648.916.026.161

(1.352.144.549.193)

2016

630.442.334.918

Ring nm 2016, vi gi nh ca nhm l tc tng trng ca thu nhp rng v c tc

s n nh l g = 5%, da trn nhng s liu d bo v ti sn lu ng, ti sn c nh, n
ngn hn v tin mt nm 2016, ta c EBIT2016=EBIT2015x(1+5%) v ROC = 20,62%.
Nn T l ti u t 2016=g/ROC

5%
= 24,25%
20,62%

V FCFF2016= EBIT2016 x (1-t l ti u t 2016) = 630.442.334.918

Vy vi li sut chit khu r=WACC=5%, gi tr doanh nghip ti thi im u 2011 l
Vo =

FCFF2011 FCFF2012 FCFF2013 FCFF2014 FCFF2015

V
+
+
+
+
+ 2015 5
2
3
4
5
1+ r
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r )

Vi V2015 =

FCFF2016
(r g )

Th s vo , ta c V0 = 3.171.423.047.951,51
V s lng C phiu ang lu hnh = 99.041.940
-> P0 = V0/S lng c phiu ang lu hnh = 32.021 ng
2.3.3. Tng hp
Do vic d on gi c phiu theo phng php DDM khng d bo ht nhng thay i
ca tt c cc ch s cn thit t 2011-2016 m ch d bo nhng yu t thuc bng cn i
13

k ton v doanh thu, gi vn hng bn, chi ph bn hng, chi ph qun l doanh nghip ca
cng ty. Nn dng phng php nh gi theo DDM s khng to chnh xc cao nh
nh gi theo phng php FCFF.
S dng vic tnh gi tr P0 theo FCFF l 90% cn theo phng php DDM l 10%.
P0 = 90%*32.021 + 10%*16.102 = 20.429,15
Vy gi tr c phiu ca doanh nghip u nm 2011 l 30.429 VND

Kt lun
Vi gi th trng ang giao dch hin nay l 30.100 VND, st vi gi tr hin ti ca c
phiu tnh ra l 30.429 VND. iu cho thy nh u t c th u t vo c phiu SJS
v c phiu c nh gi ng.

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TI LIU THAM KHO

1. http://www.wooricbv.com/FileShow.ashx?ContentID=1855
2. www.cophieu68.com
3. Bo co thng nin Cng ty C phn u t pht trin th v khu cng nghip
Sng nm 2010,2009,2008,2007, 2 qu u nm 2011

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