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x1
x2
P(X 1 x 1 |x 2 -x 2 <X 2 x 2 ) =
x2
p (u1 , u 2 )du1du 2
x 2
x2
x2
p (u 2 ) du 2
x 2
F ( x1 , x2 ) F ( x1 , x2 x2
F ( x2 , x2 x2 )
Gi s cc hm mt phn b xc sut p(x 1 ,x 2 ) v p(x 2 ) l cc hm lin tc trong
khong (x 2 - x 2 , x 2 ) . Chia c t v mu ng thc trn cho x 2 v ly gii hn khi
x 2 -> 0 ta nhn c
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x1 x2
p(u1 , u 2 )du1du 2 / x2
P(X 1 x 1 | X 2 =x 2 ) = F(x 1 | x 2 ) =
=
x2
p(u 2 )du 2 / x2
p (u1 , x2 )du1
p ( x2 )
chnh l hm phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin X 1 trong iu kin bin X 2 xc
nh .
Do F(- | x 2 )=0 v F( | x 2 )=1. Ly o hm biu thc trn theo x 1 ta c
p(x 1 ,x 2 ) = p(x 2 | x 1 ).p(x 1 )
M rng cho cc bin ngu nhin nhiu chiu , hm mt phn b xc sut ng thi
ca cc bin ngu nhin X i , i=1,2, ,n nh sau :
p(x 1 ,x 2 , ,x n ) = p(x n ,x n 1 , ,x k | x k 1 , ,x 1 ).p(x 1 ,x 2 , ,x k 1 )
S dng kt qu trn chng minh bi ton
Ta c :
p(x 1 ,x 2 ) = p(x 2 | x 1 ).p(x 1 )
Y=
X
i =1
s 1 vi xc sut
d
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0 vi xc sut 1-p
a. Xc nh hm c tnh ca Y
b. Xc nh momen bc 1 v bc 2 ca Y
Gii :
a. Xc nh hm c tnh ca Y :
Ta c nhn xt Y l tp s nguyn t 0 ... n. Vy xc sut Y = k chnh l xc sut
sao cho k bin Xi = 1 v n-k bin Xi = 0
T trn ta c :
P(y = k) = C nk pk(1-p)n-k
Theo nh ngha hm mt phn b xc sut cho hm ri rc :
n
p(y) =
P(Y = k) (y-k) =
k =0
k =0
C nk pk(1-p)n-k (y-k)
ejvYp(y)dy
ejvY(
C nk pk(1-p)n-k (y-k))dy
k =0
k
n
C p (1-p)
k =0
n-k
ejvY (y-k)dy
C nk pk(1-p)n-k
ejvY (y-k)dy
(jv) =
k =0
n
k =0
C nk pk(1-p)n-k
ejvY (y-k)dy
C nk pk(1-p)n-k ejvk
= (1 - p + pejv)n
b. Xc nh momen bc 1 v bc 2 ca Y :
T hm c tnh ta tnh c momen cp 1 :
d ( jv)
E(Y) = -j
v=0
dv
= -jn(1-p+pejv)n-1.jpejv v=0
= np
Ta c momen cp 2 c tnh :
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d 2 ( jv)
d (n(1 p + pe jv ) n 1 . jpe jv )
=
v=0
v=0
dv
dv 2
jv
jv
jv n-2
jv n-1 2
= - (n(n-1)jpe .jpe (1-p+pe ) + n(1-p+pe ) .j pejv
E(Y2) = -
= n(n-1)p2e2jv(1-p+pejv)n-2 + n(1-p+pejv)n-1pejv
= n(n-1)p2 + np
= np(1-p) + n2p2
2 = E(Y2) - E(Y)2 = np(1-p)
v=0
v=0
Bi 1.6 :
Bn bin ngu nhin X1, X2, X3, X4 l cc bin ngu nhin gaussian ng thi c
gi tr trung bnh bng 0 vi hip bin ij = E(XiXj) v hm c tnh l (jv1,jv2,jv3,jv4).
Chng t rng :
E(X1X2X3X4) = 12 34 + 13 24 + 14 23
Gii:
Hm c tnh l :
1
v'Mv)
2
Theo gi thit 4 bin ngu nhin c gi tr trung bnh bng 0 nn ta c hm c
tnh l :
1
(jv1,jv2,jv3,jv4) = exp(- v'Mv)
2
Ta i tnh v'Mv trong v l vecto n chiu vi cc thnh phn vi , i=1,2,... n
M l ma trn hip bin.
(jv1,jv2,jv3,jv4) = exp(jmx'v -
v'Mv =
v1,v2,v3,v4
12 12 13 14
12 22 23 24
13 23 34
14 24 34 42
2
3
v1
v2
v3
v4
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n
i =1
a,
Tac:
n
jv Xi
jv
jv
Y (iv ) = E(e jvY ) = (exp(
) = Xi = [ Xi ] n
n
n
n
i =1
Theo bi 1.8 ta c hm c tnh ca bin ngu nhin c phn b Cauchy
a
- < x <
) l
( p(x)= 2 2
x +a
a
v
a
v
jv
jv
Tng t nh vy ta c: Xi = e n * 2 2 dx = e an
x +a
n
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(1-1)
Thay vo (1-1) ta c
v
jv n
Y (iv ) = [ Xi ] = e a
b,
Mun tnh hm mt phn b xc sut ta bin i Furi ngc
v
1
jvX
p(y)=
dv =
ea e
1
=
2
v* + jX
a
v + jY
1
dv =
e a
1
2 * + jY
a
1
+ jX ta c:
a
1
p(y) =
*e m ( e t -e t )
2m
lim t +
t m =
c,
(1-2) ( l gi tr cn tm)
n
i =1
lch trung bnh bnh phng ca Y l :
n
1 n
y2 =E(Y 2 )- m 2y = 2 E(X i X j )
n i =1 j =1
n
n
1
1 n
= 2 E(X i2 ) + 2 E(X i X j )
n i =1
n i =1 j =1
1
1
= ( x2 + m 2x ) + 2 n(n-1) m 2x - m 2x
n
n
=
i j
- mx
x2
n
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